Lei ne , Sand a M.; Rei e , Oli e
A icle
The esponse o labou demand o di e en COVID-19
con ainmen measu es: E idence om online job pos ings
in Aus ia
Jou nal o Labou Ma ke Resea ch
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Ins i u e o Employmen Resea ch (IAB)
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Lei ne , Sand a M.; Rei e , Oli e (2024) : The esponse o labou demand o
di e en COVID-19 con ainmen measu es: E idence om online job pos ings in Aus ia, Jou nal o
Labou Ma ke Resea ch, ISSN 2510-5027, Sp inge , Heidelbe g, Vol. 58, Iss. 1, pp. 1-23,
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Jou nal o Labou Ma ke Resea ch
The esponse o labou demand odi e en
COVID-19 con ainmen measu es: e idence
omonline job pos ings inAus ia
Sand a M. Lei ne 1* and Oli e Rei e 1
Abs ac
This pape analyses changes in he speed o labou demand o new hi es in esponse o he lockdowns ha we e
epea edly pu in place o con ain he sp ead o he COVID-19 pandemic. I es s whe he he unce ain y- educing
e ec o simila lockdowns occu ing in quick succession inc eased he esponsi eness o he labou ma ke , he eby
allowing o mo e apid adjus men , bo h a he beginning and a he end o subsequen lockdowns. I uses high-
equency online job-pos ing da a and applies an e en s udy app oach o he beginning o h ee na ional lock-
downs and he subsequen eopening in Aus ia be ween 2020 and 2022. In iew o he impo ance o p og ess
in accina ion o labou ma ke eco e y, i also looks a accine oll-ou as an addi ional COVID-19 con ainmen
measu e, wi h 2021 as he main oll-ou pe iod. The esul s indica e e y di e en esponses o he h ee lockdowns,
wi h a decline in job-pos ing ac i i y o be ween 47 and 50% du ing he i s lockdown and o be ween 29 and 31%
du ing he second; bu an inc ease o 23% o 28% du ing he las lockdown. Mo eo e , esponses o he i s lock-
down we e sluggish, wi h a slow decline a he beginning and a e y slow eco e y a e i was li ed; bu o e sub-
sequen lockdowns he esponses we e mo e apid and mo e symme ical. Responses o he a ious e en s di e ed
by occupa ion and indus y: he s onges esponses we e o be obse ed in he highly skilled and mo e- elewo kable
occupa ions o echnicians, and manage s and p o essionals, who we e badly a ec ed du ing he i s lockdown;
he leisu e and hospi ali y indus y, which was he ha des hi on accoun o he manda o y closu es and he wide-
sp ead a el es ic ions and bans, and which eco e ed only e y slowly; and he IT, in e ne and elecommunica-
ions indus y, whe e pos ing ac i i y de eloped in a di ec ion opposi e o ha seen in he o he indus ies. Finally,
he e is li le obus e idence o a di e en ia ed e ec o accina ions du ing lockdowns, sugges ing ha accina ion
oll-ou did no ha e an addi ional demand-gene a ing e ec , o e and abo e he lockdowns.
Keywo ds Online job pos ing, COVID-19, Telewo kabili y, Vaccina ions, E en s udy analysis
JEL Classi ica ion J23, J63, O33, G14
1 In oduc ion
Labou ma ke s end o espond asymme ically o
shocks, wi h con ac ions in employmen being b ie e
(sho e ) and mo e in ense ( apid) han expansions
(Ne çi 1984; McKay and Reis 2008; Abb i i and Fah
2013; Dup az e al. 2021), making eco e y a slow and
p o ac ed p ocess. The ecen COVID-19 c isis p ecipi-
a ed simila labou ma ke esponses, wi h swi declines
in employmen a he beginning o he c isis and slowe
eco e y owa ds i s end (Eu o ound 2022; Kiss e al.
2022).
Wha dis inguishes he COVID-19 c isis om p e-
ious c ises is no only i s o igin in a global heal h c i-
sis, bu also he speci ic measu es—especially he
*Co espondence:
Sand a M. Lei ne
sand a.lei ne @wiiw.ac.a
1 The Vienna Ins i u e o In e na ional Economic S udies (wiiw), Rahlgasse
3, 1060 Vienna, Aus ia
17 Page 2 o 23
S.M.Lei ne , O.Rei e
lockdowns— ha we e epea edly pu in place by go e n-
men s o con ain he sp ead o he disease. These esul ed
in a se ies o shocks in a sho span o only abou 2yea s,
un il he COVID-19 pandemic as a public heal h eme -
gency was inally decla ed o e (WHO 2023). The meas-
u es had a d ama ic economic impac (Deb e al. 2022)
and led o a sha p all in labou demand in many sec-
o s—especially in hose ha had o shu down due o
go e nmen -imposed social-dis ancing es ic ions, such
as non-essen ial e ail o hospi ali y, leisu e and ou ism
(OECD 2021).
Gene ally, c ises and concomi an ecessions a e
associa ed wi h an inc ease in unce ain y—a each
le el o agg ega ion—which a ec s decision making
(Bloom 2014). In pa icula , unce ain y ope a es as a
eal op ions e ec , inc easing he alue o wai ing (Be -
nanke 1983), especially in he con ex o con ex adjus -
men cos s ha make decision e e sal cos ly (Caballe o
e al. 1997; Nilsen e al. 2007); o ally i e e sible in es -
men s, including hi ing (Valle a and Bengali 2013);
o isk-a e se economic agen s who, in he ace o high
unce ain y, all back on a wai -and-see app oach (Bach-
mann and Baye 2013; Schaal 2017). Hence, adjus men
is sluggish. Howe e , li le is known abou how he speed
o adjus men changes wi h epea ed shocks ha occu
in quick succession. Speci ically, he epea ed—and o en
e y simila —lockdowns ha we e imposed du ing he
COVID-19 c isis allowed o a deg ee o lea ning om
one lockdown-induced shock o he nex , hus educing
unce ain y. In addi ion o he gene al (epis emological)
unp edic abili y abou he in ec iousness and le hali y
o he i us, he possibili y o u he wa es o in ec ion
and he doub abou he du a ion o he COVID-19 pan-
demic, he e was unce ain y abou he economic e ec s
o he lockdown in e ms o changes in demand du ing
he lockdown and he speed o eco e y once he lock-
down was li ed; his was pa icula ly ue o he i s
lockdown, which was unp eceden ed o mos busi-
nesses (Balla-Ellio e al. 2020). The expe ience wi h
he i s lockdown hen allowed o a mo e accu a e
assessmen o changes in demand du ing and a e sub-
sequen lockdowns, and mo e in o med decisions, such
as adjus men s in labou . In ac , he COVID-19- ela ed
unce ain y spike was highe —i peaked in ea ly 2020,
when mos economies we e in hei i s lockdown—bu
sho e han in o he c isis episodes (Benigno e al. 2020).
And while unce ain y again spiked du ing each sub-
sequen lockdown, each spike was mo e mode a e han
he p e ious one (Janecki 2021). Hence, we can expec
he educed unce ain y a e he i s majo lockdown o
ha e inc eased he esponsi eness o he labou ma ke ,
allowing o mo e apid adjus men s a bo h he begin-
ning and he end o subsequen shocks, and hus a as e
labou ma ke eco e y a e a shock, wi h less asymme-
y in he labou ma ke esponses.
We es he alidi y o his assump ion using high- e-
quency, eal- ime online job-pos ing da a ha a e be e
sui ed o cap u ing he speed and pa hs o he p ocesses
o adjus men o shocks han a e adi ional economic
da a, because o hei high g anula i y and equency.
Online job-pos ing ac i i y cap u es employe s’ hi ing
ac i i y and is an impo an indica o o he o ma ion o
new employmen ela ionships, as opposed o a esump-
ion o p e ious employmen ela ionships.
Se e al s udies ha e used online job-pos ing da a o
shed ligh on he esponsi eness o labou ma ke s o
lockdowns; bu hose s udies ha e la gely been con ined
o he i s lockdown in he i s hal o 2020, and o en
ocus only on he esponse o i s beginning, no i s end.
E idence o he US, Canada and he EU shows ha , in
esponse o he i s lockdown, job pos ings ollowed a
V-shaped pa e n: he e was a sha p d op in he 2mon hs
ollowing he s a o he i s lockdown and hen coun-
y-speci ic eco e y ajec o ies ha depended e y
much on he coun y-speci ic con ex , ends and poli-
cies pu sued (Cede op 2020). The decline in job pos ings
was gene ally mo e p onounced in hose coun ies wi h
s ic e lockdown (see, o example, Ad jan and Lydon
2020; Fo sy he e al. 2020; OECD 2021; Shuai e al. 2021
o he US; Jones e al. 2021; OECD 2021 o Canada;
Ad jan and Lydon 2020; A hu 2021; OECD 2021 o
he UK; Hens ik e al. 2020 o Sweden; Holge sen e al.
2020 o No way; and Bamieh and Ziegle 2022 o Aus-
ia). Fu he mo e, a e eopening o he US economy
in Ap il, he subsequen eco e y was ela i ely quick
(Cheng e al. 2020): hanks o he apid easing o es ic-
ions, new job pos ings had mos ly e u ned o hei p e-
pandemic le el by he end o June (K umel e al. 2023).
By con as , he eco e y was mo e p o ac ed in Canada,
whe e job-pos ing ac i i y did no e u n o p e-c isis
le els un il Oc obe 2020 (Jones e al. 2021), and in he
UK, whe e i was only a he end o Janua y 2021 ha
job-pos ing ac i i y e u ned o some hing like he le els
o ea ly 2019 (A hu 2021), ollowing u he na ional
lockdowns in au umn and win e 2020. The sho obse -
a ion pe iods o G eece and Aus ia (limi ed o a cou-
ple o weeks a e he es ic ions we e li ed) show ha
job-pos ing ac i i y emained sluggish and well below
p e-pandemic le els in bo h cases (Be che man e al.
2023; Bamieh and Ziegle 2022).
Mo eo e , he esponses also di e ed by sec o and
occupa ion, wi h a pa icula ly s eep decline in he num-
be o online pos ings in hose non-essen ial sec o s ha
we e mos hea ily a ec ed by COVID-19 measu es, such
as leisu e and hospi ali y o e ail (Cede op 2020; Cos a
Dias e al. 2020; Hens ik e al. 2020); meanwhile, in he
Page 3 o 23 17 The esponse o labou demand odi e en COVID‑19 con ainmen measu es: e idence omonline…
US, o example, essen ial e ail occupa ions expe ienced
a sha p inc ease (Fo sy he e al. 2020). The eco e y a e
Ap il 2020 was pa icula ly s ong in heal hca e occu-
pa ions (Hens ik e al. 2020; Cos a Dias e al. 2020). In
his con ex , he elewo kabili y o occupa ions made a
di e ence and helped o shield some—especially whi e-
colla —occupa ions om p onounced d ops in demand.
Howe e , his is no obse ed in all coun ies (see Fo -
sy he e al. 2020; Holge sen e al. 2020; Bamieh and Zie-
gle 2022).
This pape con ibu es in wo impo an ways o he
expanding body o li e a u e ha examines he labou
ma ke e ec s o COVID-19. Fi s , i analyses he exac
iming o labou demand and i s sensi i i y o di e en
COVID-19 measu es, namely lockdowns and eopen-
ing. In his con ex , i add esses h ee majo sho com-
ings o he li e a u e summa ised abo e: (i) pa ly due
o i s pu ely quali a i e na u e, he li e a u e is silen on
how quickly labou demand changes in esponse o a
lockdown: he change could occu in an icipa ion o he
announcemen /implemen a ion; wi h he announce-
men ; wi h he implemen a ion; o wi h a ce ain ime lag
a e implemen a ion; (ii) i mainly conside s lockdown,
bu igno es eopening: while ela ed esea ch has shown
ha low-skilled occupa ions wi h limi ed elewo kabil-
i y we e wo s a ec ed by he i s lockdown (Cede op
2020; Cos a Dias e al. 2020; Hens ik e al. 2020; OECD
2021), ela i ely li le is known abou whe he —and
how quickly—demand ebounded, especially a e sub-
sequen lockdowns. Hence, he analysis o eopening is
c ucial, as i helps o iden i y occupa ions whose sluggish
eco e y in demand means ha hey may be le behind
as he economy e i es, and ha he e o e dese e pa -
icula policy a en ion; (iii) i only co e s he i s majo
lockdown, no subsequen lockdowns. Howe e , he
esponsi eness o labou demand o he la e lockdowns
and eopening may be quicke and mo e symme ical,
because he e is less unce ain y, hanks o he expe i-
ence gleaned om p e ious lockdowns. Ou analysis
also accoun s o he sec o -speci ici y o COVID-19
measu es and examines po en ial he e ogenei y ac oss
occupa ions, indus ies and egions, wi h espec o
how quickly labou demand esponds o a lockdown
and he subsequen eopening. Fu he mo e, i consid-
e s he impo ance o he elewo kabili y o occupa ions,
and examines whe he ha made any di e ence du ing
he lockdowns by helping o p e en a decline in labou
demand, as has been shown in o he s udies (Dey e al.
2020; Flisi and San angelo 2022; Sos e o e al. 2020).
Second, in addi ion o he lockdowns and pe iods o
eopening, he analysis looks a accine oll-ou as an
addi ional COVID-19 con ainmen measu e, and de e -
mines i s ole in labou demand gene ally, as well as i s
(po en ially di e en ia ed) e ec on labou demand du -
ing lockdowns in pa icula . This is ele an , since p o-
g ess in accina ion is a c i ical ac o o labou ma ke
eco e y (Kiss e al. 2022; Mosbah and Dha mapala
2022).
The analysis uses a unique da ase o online job-pos ing
da a om he la ges online job po al in Aus ia—ka -
ie e.a . The in o ma ion is a ailable on a daily basis and
allows us o iden i y he esponses wi hin days o weeks
a ound a pa icula COVID-19 e en —i.e. he begin-
ning o a lockdown and i s end, when es ic ions we e
li ed and he economy eopened—as well as du ing he
accine oll-ou ; his is no possible using o icial labou
ma ke da a, as hey a e no a ailable wi h such e-
quency. In his con ex , Aus ia ep esen s an in e es ing
case, since i wen h ough se e al na ional lockdowns
ha we e always among he s ic es in he wo ld (Badel
2021; see also he OxCGRT).1 We ocus on h ee na ional
lockdowns in Aus ia and analyse six ela ed e en s,
namely he beginning o h ee na ional lockdowns and
he eopening a e each: (i) he i s na ional lockdown
(16 Ma ch o 29 May 2020); (ii) he second and hi d
na ional lockdowns aken oge he ( hey we e sepa a ed
by only 2days) (3 No embe 2020 o 8 Feb ua y 2021);
and (iii) he i h na ional lockdown o he un accina ed
(15 No embe 2021 o 31 Janua y 2022). The ou h lock-
down was a egional lockdown and is he e o e no con-
side ed. In ou analysis, we use he i s lockdown (bo h
i s beginning and eopening) as a benchma k agains
which he wo subsequen na ional lockdowns (again,
hei beginnings and eopenings) a e compa ed. Mo eo-
e , we ocus on 2021 as he key accine oll-ou pe iod,
and use weekly accina ion da a a he egional le el.
Du ing all na ional lockdowns, gene al cu ews we e
imposed and only essen ial se ices emained open; o he
sec o s—and mos impo an ly he leisu e and hospi ali y
indus y, which is o pa icula impo ance in ou ism-
dependen Aus ia—had o shu down en i ely. Fu he -
mo e, o p e en a possible wa e o insol encies among
domes ic companies and a apid ise in unemploymen ,
se e al inancial suppo measu es we e de eloped and
implemen ed by he Aus ian go e nmen in he cou se
o 2020 and 2021 o companies, indi iduals and o gani-
sa ions—mos no ably, he COVID-19 sho - ime wo k-
ing scheme.
Me hodologically, i applies an e en s udy app oach
om he inance li e a u e, de eloped by Ball and B own
1 See he S ingency Index om he Ox o d Co ona i us Go e nmen
Response T acke (OxCGRT): h ps:// ou wo ldin da a. o g/ co id- s in
gency- index.
17 Page 4 o 23
S.M.Lei ne , O.Rei e
(1986), and speci ies a 7-week ime window a ound each
o he e en s es ed.
Ou esul s poin o e y di e en esponses o he a -
ious lockdowns, bu con i m a change in he speed and
pa e ns o adjus men ac oss he lockdowns. Speci i-
cally, pos ing ac i i y was s ill abo e end in he 2weeks
be o e he i s lockdown began; i d opped below end
as he i s lockdown began and hen declined u he
o e he ollowing 4weeks. I eco e ed slowly, bu ailed
o e u n o end e en se e al weeks a e he measu e
was li ed. By con as , pos ing ac i i y esponded much
mo e apidly and mo e symme ically a bo h he s a
and he inish o he nex lockdown conside ed. The same
holds ue o he las lockdown; howe e , abo e- end
pos ing ac i i ies we e isible bo h a he ime he s a
o he lockdown was announced and a he end. The posi-
i e de elopmen s du ing he inal lockdown a e likely
associa ed wi h he ela i ely modes slump i igge ed
and wi h he s ong mood o op imism among employ-
e s, as hey p epa ed o he pos -lockdown eco e y
(which ook o soon a e he measu e was li ed). While
he e is li le di e ence ac oss egions, esponses o he
a ious e en s do di e by occupa ion and indus y. Fo
ins ance, echnicians, and manage s and p o essionals
we e also empo a ily a ec ed: hey saw a p onounced
decline in pos ing ac i i y in esponse o he i s lock-
down and a e y slow eco e y a e i was li ed; bu sig-
ni ican ly abo e- end ac i i y a he beginning and he
end o he inal lockdown. In e es ingly, hei highe le el
o elewo kabili y did no shield hem om he nega i e
e ec s du ing he i s lockdown. The ad an age o ele-
wo kabili y only became appa en du ing he subsequen
lockdowns. Ac oss indus ies, he mos no able e ec s
a e o be obse ed in he leisu e and hospi ali y indus-
y sec o , which was he ha des hi , due o he manda-
o y closu es and he widesp ead a el es ic ions and
bans, bu which eco e ed only e y slowly; and in he
IT, in e ne and elecommunica ions indus y sec o ,
whe e pos ing ac i i y de eloped in he opposi e di ec-
ion o he o he indus ies o he sec o s. This is ela ed
o he inc eased demand du ing he i s lockdown o IT
expe s o implemen he new digi al solu ions igge ed
by he su ge in e-comme ce and he inc ease in wo king-
om-home a angemen s (which, howe e , soon eached
sa u a ion poin ). Finally, he e is li le obus e idence o
a di e en ia ed e ec o accina ions du ing lockdowns,
sugges ing ha du ing he lockdowns accina ion up ake
may no ha e had an addi ional demand-enhancing
e ec .
The es o he pape is s uc u ed as ollows: Sec .2
discusses he da a sou ce and he COVID-19 con ain-
men measu es analysed he e, in e ms o he na u e
o he di e en lockdowns ha we e imposed by he
Aus ian go e nmen be ween 2020 and 2022 and he
iming o he associa ed e en s ha we es ed, as well
as he accina ion oll-ou p og amme ha s a ed a
he end o 2020 and ook o o e he ensuing mon hs.
Sec ion3 lays ou he me hodological app oach used o
de e mine how sensi i e online job-pos ing ac i i y was
o he a ious COVID-19 measu es. The indings o he
analysis a e p esen ed and discussed in Sec .4—also di -
e en ia ing by occupa ion, indus y and egion. Sec ion5
summa ises he esul s and o e s some conclusions.
2 Da a ande en s es ed
2.1 Online job‑pos ing da a
The da a used in he analysis a e d awn om he la ges
p i a e online job po al in Aus ia—ka ie e.a ,2 which
has been ope a ing since 2005. I is he ma ke leade in
online ec ui men o p o essional and manage ial wo k-
e s, and he e o e ca e s mo e o job seeke s a he uppe
end o he skills hie a chy. I is he job po al wi h he
g ea es online each in Aus ia, wi h mo e han 4.9 mil-
lion isi o s and o e 30 million page iews each mon h
(G K Aus ia 3/2019; Google Analy ics 1/2019).
Fo he pu poses o ou analysis, ka ie e.a p o ided
he online job pos ings (OJPs) ha we e pos ed on i s
pla o m om 2005 un il May 2022—a o al o 2.2 mil-
lion. Fo ou analysis, we use OJPs ha we e pos ed on
he ka ie e.a pla o m om 2yea s be o e he s a o
he pandemic—used o es ablish a p e-pandemic e e -
ence pe iod and baseline—up o he la es a ailable day:
i.e. be ween 1 Janua y 2018 and 31 May 2022. A com-
pa ison o he numbe o new mon hly job pos ings on
he ka ie e.a pla o m wi h hose epo ed by he Aus-
ian Public Employmen Se ice (AMS)—Aus ia’s la g-
es public p o ide —shows ha he numbe o acancies
epo ed by ka ie e.a was a ound 35% o he numbe
o acancies epo ed by he AMS. The OJP aw ex
includes de ailed in o ma ion on he job i le, educa-
ion and skills equi emen s, and o he in o ma ion on
he acan posi ion, such as geog aphical loca ion ( ed-
e al s a e, dis ic ), indus y o ype o job ( ull ime, pa
ime). O key impo ance o he analysis is he da e o
issuance—i.e. he da e on which he job ad was c ea ed
and published on he ka ie e.a websi e. This allows
us o assign OJPs o he di e en lockdown phases and
associa ed lockdown e en s in e ms o hei beginning
and end. Fo he es ima ion, we agg ega e daily OJPs o
weekly coun s.
Fo he subsequen analysis, om he ich OJP aw ex
we use he in o ma ion on job i le, educa ion and skills
equi emen s, indus y, geog aphical loca ion and da e o
issuance.
2 See h ps:// www. ka i e e. a .
Page 5 o 23 17 The esponse o labou demand odi e en COVID‑19 con ainmen measu es: e idence omonline…
Speci ically, he job i le and he educa ion and skills
equi emen s a e used o classi y occupa ions: hese
a e no only impo an con ol a iables in ou analysis,
bu also allow us o shed ligh on occupa ion-speci ic
esponses o he COVID-19 con ainmen measu es. Fo
his, we apply Big Da a echniques. Speci ically, we use
he wo-s ep s a is ical machine-lea ning algo i hm p o-
posed by Schie holz and Schonlau (2020): as a i s s ep,
i ma ches he occupa ion i les om a Ge man ansla-
ion o he ISCO classi ica ion documen 3 o he job i les
gi en in he pos ings, using h ee di e en ma ching p o-
cedu es: exac , bag-o -wo ds and app oxima e (o ‘ uzzy’)
ma ching.4 Tha way, 62% o all OJPs can be assigned an
ISCO code. Fo he h ee ma ching p ocedu es, we use
he occupa ion i les o he ou -digi ISCO classi ica ion.
As a second s ep, he wo ding o he ISCO-classi ied
OJPs om s ep 1 is used as aining da a o a machine-
lea ning algo i hm—an XGBoos classi ie . The ex con-
ains de ailed in o ma ion on he educa ion and skills
equi emen s o he pos ed job, which allows he algo-
i hm o lea n which speci ic wo ds and ph ases a e ypi-
cally associa ed wi h a pa icula job (i.e. a speci ic ISCO
code). The ained algo i hm can hen p edic he ISCO
codes o he OJPs ha ha e no ye been classi ied in s ep
1, based solely on hei wo ding. Fo his s ep, we agg e-
ga e he ou -digi ISCO codes o one-digi ISCO codes.
In iew o he small numbe o OJPs o pa icula one-
digi occupa ions (especially in he lowe occupa ional
segmen ), we o m i e occupa ional g oups, based on
he ISCO-08 one-digi classi ica ion: (i) manage s, p o-
essionals (ISCO-08: 1–2); (ii) echnicians (ISCO-08: 3);
(iii) cle ks (ISCO-08: 4–5); (i ) c a wo ke s (ISCO-08:
6–7); and ( ) manual wo ke s (ISCO-08: 8–9) ( o u he
de ails see Table1 below).
Indus ies in he pos ings ollow a classi ica ion scheme
de ined by ka ie e.a , which we adjus ed o align be e
wi h he NACE Re . 2 indus y classi ica ion (see Table
A.1(Supplemen a y Ma e ial 1) in he onlineappendix
o an o e iew and co espondence wi h he NACE Re .
2 indus y classi ica ion). All in all, we de ined 14 indus-
ies (which in some cases e e o sub-indus ies).
We also classi y he geog aphical loca ion o he job
ad e ised in a pos ing, acco ding o NUTS egions.5 In
he analysis, we epo he esul s sepa a ely by NUTS
egion. To his end, we ollow closely he NUTS 1
egional classi ica ion, based on g oups o Aus ian ed-
e al s a es, since he numbe o OJPs a ies widely ac oss
ede al s a es, being pa icula ly low in some (e.g. Bu -
genland, Ca in hia, Vo a lbe g) and e y high in o he s
(e.g. Uppe Aus ia, whe e he headqua e s o ka ie e.a
is loca ed). Speci ically, we dis inguish he ollowing ou
egions: (i) No he n egion (Uppe Aus ia); (ii) Eas e n
egion ( he capi al ci y o Vienna, Lowe Aus ia and Bu -
genland); (iii) Sou he n egion (S y ia and Ca in hia); and
(i ) Wes e n egion (Salzbu g, Ty ol and Vo a lbe g). The
ou egions di e in e ms o indus y s uc u e; in iew
o he indus y-speci ici y o he COVID-19 measu es,
his may elici di e en esponses a he egional le el.
Speci ically, manu ac u ing domina es in he No h and
Sou h; public se ices and u ili ies in he Eas (due o he
dominance o adminis a i e ac i i ies concen a ed in
he capi al Vienna); and wholesale, as well as leisu e and
hospi ali y in he Wes .
An o e iew o he equency o he OJPs in he
sample used o he analysis (2018–2022), di e en i-
a ed by occupa ional g oup, indus y and egion, can
Table 1 Occupa ional g oups, acco ding o one-digi ISCO-08 classi ica ion
G oup ISCO‑08 classi ica ion
Manage s, p o essionals Manage s (ISCO-08: 1) and p o essionals (ISCO-08: 2)
Technicians Technicians and associa e p o essionals (ISCO-08: 3)
Cle ks, cle ical wo ke s Cle ical suppo wo ke s (ISCO-08: 4) and se ice and sales wo ke s (ISCO-08: 5)
C a wo ke s Skilled ag icul u al, o es y and ishe y wo ke s (ISCO-08: 6) and c a
and ela ed ades wo ke s (ISCO-08: 7)
Manual wo ke s Plan and machine ope a o s and assemble s (ISCO-08: 8) and elemen a y
occupa ions (ISCO-08: 9)
3 See h ps:// www. s a i s ik. a / KDBWeb/ kdb_ Downl oadsA nzeig en. do?
KDB o ken= igno e.
4 In he ‘exac ’ p ocedu e, we only use pe ec ma ches be ween he ISCO
occupa ion i le and he job i le o he OJP. In he ‘bag-o -wo ds’ p ocedu e,
we spli he occupa ion i les as well as he job i les in o sepa a e wo ds,
compa e hem o each o he and conside i a ma ch i he Jacca d index
is g ea e han 0.6. Finally, he ‘ uzzy’ ma ching uses he gene alised Le en-
sh ein edi dis ance o compa e he wo i les and conside s i a ma ch i he
maximal dis ance be ween he wo is less han 0.1. The h eshold alues o
he ‘bag-o -wo ds’ and ‘ uzzy’ ma ching we e chosen so ha he numbe o
alse ma ches (e alua ed h ough manual inspec ion) was minimised.
5 We classi y he geog aphical loca ion o he job acco ding o NUTS 1–3
egions ( o he mos de ailed le el possible o a gi en OJP), again using a
egula exp ession sea ch o municipali y and NUTS 1–3 egion names (as
well as de i a ions he eo ). Despi e i s simplici y, his me hod success ully
assigns 89% o OJPs NUTS 2 egions (i.e., ede al s a es) and 84% o OJPs
NUTS 3 egions (i.e., de ailed dis ic s).
17 Page 6 o 23
S.M.Lei ne , O.Rei e
be ound in Figu e A.1(Supplemen a y Ma e ial 2) in
he online appendix. Gi en he indus y-speci ici y o
he lockdowns, Figu e A.2 (Supplemen a y Ma e ial
3)shows he equency o OJPs by indus y o each o
he i e occupa ional g oups (as an a e age be ween
2018 and 2022), while Figu e A.3(Supplemen a y Ma e-
ial 4) shows he espec i e annual equencies ( o 2018
o 2022), and hus shows impo an pandemic- ela ed
changes in he demand o new hi es by occupa ional
g oup and indus y.
F om he OJP equi emen s wo ding, we also use
in o ma ion on elewo kabili y6 op ions o compu e wo
di e en elewo kabili y indices, which we use in ou
empi ical analysis as impo an occupa ion-speci ic con-
ol a iables. Bo h a e based on he numbe o men ions
o keywo ds—indica ing ha a ce ain job can be ca ied
ou om home/ emo ely— ound in he OJPs.7 We label a
job ‘ elewo kable’ i he e is a leas one e e ence in he
ex o he ad e . The i s index is ime in a ian and is
based on he numbe o men ions o keywo ds be o e he
pandemic (2010 o 2019) in each occupa ional ca ego y.
The second index is ime a ian and e e s o he num-
be o men ions o ele an keywo ds o a gi en occu-
pa ion wi hin a ce ain ime ame—in ou case, a week.
Thus, his elewo kabili y index allows us o cap u e he
change in elewo kabili y o each occupa ion o e ime.
Bo h elewo kabili y indices a e shown in Fig.1 o all
occupa ions (all ISCOs), and o each o he i e occu-
pa ional g oups. This highligh s he ac ha p io o he
COVID-19 pandemic, only a ound 0.1% o all ad e s
con ained a e e ence o elewo king, wi h conside -
able a ia ion ac oss occupa ional g oups. Ha dly any
e e ence o elewo king was o be ound in ad e s o
manual, c a o cle ical wo ke s: mos e e ences we e in
ad e s o manage s and p o essionals, ollowed by ech-
nicians. Wi h he onse o he pandemic, howe e , ele-
wo king came o be men ioned mo e equen ly: be ween
2020 and 2022, he sha e o ad e s ha con ained a e -
e ence o elewo king almos quad upled, ising om
he 0.1% p io o he pandemic o a ound 0.4%. Apa
om manual wo ke s, elewo kabili y inc eased ac oss
he occupa ions, bu mos no ably o echnicians, and
manage s and p o essionals. A small inc ease can also be
obse ed o cle ical wo ke s—albei wi h a delay, mainly
be ween 2021 and 2022.
Telewo kabili y also di e s ac oss indus ies (as shown
in Figu e A.4 (Supplemen a y Ma e ial 5) o he ime-
a ian elewo kabili y index). In he yea s be o e he
COVID-19 pandemic, e e ences o elewo king we e
mos equen ly ound in ad e s o jobs in he IT, in e -
ne and elecommunica ions indus y; ha said, such e -
e ences we e on he decline un il he pandemic s uck,
since when he e has been a sha p ise. Wi h he onse o
he pandemic, e e ences o elewo king in job pos ings
inc eased in all indus ies, bu especially in manu ac u -
ing, pe sonal se ices and consul ing se ices. In many
indus ies, his was only empo a y, and a decline can be
obse ed owa ds he end o he pandemic.
2.2 Tes ed e en s
Du ing he COVID-19 pandemic, Aus ia expe ienced
i e lockdowns o a ious du a ions and se e i y (see
Table2 o an o e iew). The i s na ional lockdown,
be ween mid-Ma ch and he end o May 2020, was he
mos d ama ic, b inging public li e o a nea s ands ill.
Aside om basic supplies, all businesses (as well as ed-
e al pa ks and public ba hs) had o emain closed un il
u he no ice; schools and uni e si ies we e shu ; ai
a ic was la gely suspended; and s ic con ac es ic-
ions and cu ews came in o e ec , based on a newly
passed COVID-19 law.
The second na ional lockdown in au umn 2020 was
cha ac e ised by a succession o ligh and s ic lock-
downs. Res au an s, ec ea ional acili ies and museums
had o emain closed, while all shops we e ini ially kep
open, hough hey hen had o close om 17 No em-
be , wi h he beginning o a ‘s ic ’ lockdown (when only
essen ial se ices emained open). Uni e si ies and col-
leges swi ched o dis ance lea ning, while p ima y and
seconda y schools and kinde ga ens emained open; a
nigh - ime cu ew was in oduced, which was la e con-
e ed in o a gene al cu ew. I ended a Ch is mas (in
o de o allow o limi ed Ch is mas shopping and am-
ily ga he ings), bu 2days la e led di ec ly in o he hi d
s ic na ional lockdown, which again imposed simila
measu es.
The hi d lockdown also ma ks he s a o Aus ia’s
public immunisa ion campaign: on 27 Decembe 2020,
5days a e he Eu opean Medicines Agency (EMA) ga e
he g een ligh o he BioNTech/P ize accine, he i s
accina ion agains he co ona i us was adminis e ed
in Aus ia. Howe e , la ge quan i ies o accines only
6 In Aus ia, he e is nei he a unila e al obliga ion no a igh o wo k om
home; ins ead, wo king om home is olun a y and needs o be ag eed by
he employe and he employee, which makes he announcemen in a job
ad e o he op ion o unde ake emo e wo k an impo an signal.
7 The keywo ds e e o exp essions in ei he Ge man o English ha
desc ibe emo e wo k and encompass home o ice, home wo k, heim a bei ,
heim o ice, ele wo k, ele a bei , ele heima bei , zuhause a bei en, a bei
zuhause, a bei en on zuhause, a bei spla z zu hause, wo king om home,
home wo king, mobiles a bei en, mobile a bei , emo e wo k, emo e
home, emo es eam, emo e eilweise, emo e möglich, emo e ums änden
möglich, emo e möglichkei , emo e, emo e op ion.
Foo no e 7 (con inued)
Page 7 o 23 17 The esponse o labou demand odi e en COVID‑19 con ainmen measu es: e idence omonline…
became a ailable in 2021. Ini ially, p io i y was gi en o
people who we e immunocomp omised and o hose
o e he age o 80; g adually, access was opened up o
younge and heal hie g oups (Desson e al. 2022). In
May 2021, all accina ion p io i y ules we e li ed,
and by Janua y 2022 accina ion a es had pla eaued a
a ound 73% (S amm e al. 2022).
The ou h s ic (‘Eas ’) lockdown was limi ed o
Aus ia’s h ee eas e nmos ede al s a es ( he capi al
Vienna, Lowe Aus ia and Bu genland) and en isaged
ound- he-clock es ic ions on con ac and mobili y, and
he closu e o shops (excep o basic supplies), schools
and ec ea ional acili ies.
Finally, he i h s ic na ional lockdown, in au umn
2021, di e en ia ed by accina ion s a us and ini ially
only applied o he un accina ed, whose lockdown
s a ed 7 days ea lie and las ed 6 weeks longe han
he lockdown o hose who had been accina ed o
had eco e ed. Un accina ed people aged 12 and o e
we e only allowed o lea e home o a limi ed numbe
Fig. 1 Telewo kabili y— o al and by occupa ional g oup, 2010–2022. Yea ly agg ega es o he ime- a ian elewo kabili y indica o a e shown.
The wo elewo kabili y indices a e epo ed o all ISCOs (i.e. he o al) as well as o i e occupa ional g oups: manage s, p o essionals [manage s
(ISCO-08: 1), p o essionals (ISCO-08: 2)]; echnicians [ echnicians and associa e p o essionals (ISCO-08: 3)]; cle ks, cle ical wo ke s [cle ical suppo
wo ke s (ISCO-08: 4) and se ice and sales wo ke s (ISCO-08: 5)]; c a wo ke s [skilled ag icul u al, o es y and ishe y wo ke s (ISCO-08: 6)
and c a and ela ed ades wo ke s (ISCO-08: 7)]; and manual wo ke s [plan and machine ope a o s and assemble s (ISCO-08: 8) and elemen a y
occupa ions (ISCO-08: 9)] (Sou ce: ka ie e.a , own calcula ions)
Table 2 E en s es ed
Measu e Beginning End Na u e
1s lockdown 16 Ma ch 2020 29 May 2020 S ic
2nd lockdown 3 No . 2020 16 No . 2020 Ligh
17 No . 2020 6 Dec. 2020 S ic
7 Dec. 2020 23 Dec. 2020 Ligh
24/25 Dec. 2020 Easing o es ic ions
3 d lockdown 26 Dec. 2020 8 Feb. 2021 S ic
4 h lockdown 1 Ap il 2021 19 May 2021 Ha d (Eas e n p o inces only)
5 h lockdown 15 No . 2021 31 Jan. 2022 S ic —un accina ed
22 No . 2021 12 Dec. 2021 S ic — accina ed (and eco e ed)
17 Page 8 o 23
S.M.Lei ne , O.Rei e
o easons (i.e. o wo k and o buy ood), which made
Aus ia he i s EU coun y o con ine people who had
no ye ecei ed he COVID-10 accine. As wi h p e i-
ous lockdowns, en i e sec o s we e shu down comple ely
(i.e. he leisu e and hospi ali y indus y, which includes
accommoda ion and ood se ices and a s, en e ain-
men and ec ea ion) and all-day cu ews we e imposed.
Howe e , schools emained open.
On 1 Feb ua y 2022, he day a e he end o he lock-
down o he un accina ed, COVID-19 jabs became
manda o y o all adul s in Aus ia—which made i he
i s coun y in he EU o impose compulso y accina-
ion ( he measu e had been announced on 19 No embe
2021, 4days a e he s a o he lockdown o he un ac-
cina ed). The law s ipula ed ha any pe son aged 18 o
o e who e used a jab would ace a penal y o up o EUR
3600 e e y 3mon hs, unless p egnan o se e ely ill. The
penal ies we e o be in oduced om Ma ch 2022. How-
e e , he accine manda e was ne e en o ced and was
e en ually suspended on 9 Ma ch 2022.
Fo he analysis, we ocus on h ee na ional lockdowns:
(i) he i s and mos d ama ic na ional lockdown, which
s a ed on 16 Ma ch 2020 and ended on 29 May 2020; (ii)
he second and hi d na ional lockdowns ( aken oge he ,
because he b eak in be ween was e y b ie ), which
s a ed on 3 No embe 2020 and ended on 8 Feb ua y
2021; and (iii) he i h s ic na ional lockdown o he
un accina ed, which s a ed on 15 No embe 2021 and
ended on 31 Janua y 2022. The ou h lockdown was only
in e ec in he h ee eas e nmos ede al s a es, and is
hus no conside ed he e.
The abo e discussion o he COVID-19 con ainmen
measu es shows ha he s a and end poin s o he
i h lockdown ell in he same weeks as he accina ion
manda e was announced and implemen ed, espec i ely.
Hence, he indings o he i h lockdown may be biased
by he po en ially op imis ic assessmen and ou look o
employe s who we e looking o hi e new employees, and
he e o e pos ed job ad e isemen s online in esponse
o he accina ion manda e. Howe e , he e is gene ally
only limi ed us among he Aus ian popula ion in he
e ec i eness o accines (Ki el e al. 2021), a high deg ee
o hesi ancy ela ed o COVID-19 accines and s ong
opposi ion o compulso y COVID-19 accina ion (Paul
e al. 2021). This was well known and was discussed
incessan ly in he media in he un-up o implemen a-
ion o he accine manda e. Thousands o people ook
o he s ee s in ci ies and owns ac oss Aus ia o p o-
es agains he accina ion manda e. Hence, in iew o
he gene ally s ong COVID-19 accine hesi ancy and
he s ong opposi ion o compulso y COVID-19 acci-
na ion, he an icipa ed e ec i eness o he accina ion
manda e was low igh om he beginning; i is he e o e
likely ha i gene a ed only limi ed op imism and li le
esponse in pos ing ac i i y.
Hence, while he e seems o be li le o be lea ned om
Aus ia’s accina ion manda e, i s gene al COVID-19
accina ion oll-ou p og amme (which was olun a y
and allowed e e yone o be accina ed by a gene al p ac-
i ione ee o cha ge) may ha e had an impac . The p o-
g amme s a ed on a small scale a he end o 2020, when
Aus ia was in i s hi d lockdown, and came as some hing
o a elie o many—a sou ce o hope and an al e na i e o
u he lockdowns. O e subsequen mon hs, o e 70%
o he popula ion was immunised. The up ake hen s ag-
na ed, p omp ing he Aus ian go e nmen o make ac-
cina ion manda o y (see he discussion abo e). In iew
o his, we also look a he COVID-19 accina ion oll-
ou p og amme and de e mine whe he OJP ac i i y was
a ec ed by an inc ease in popula ion immunisa ion le els
(which may ha e helped boos op imism and encou age
pos ing ac i i y). Fu he mo e, we examine whe he pop-
ula ion immunisa ion le els a ec ed OJP ac i i y di e -
en ly du ing he lockdowns and du ing pe iods wi hou
a lockdown. Since accina ions mainly became a ailable
om ea ly 2021 onwa ds, we ocus on he second/ hi d
and he i h lockdowns. This analysis will be aken up
in Sec .4.3 below. I uses daily accina ion da a (agg e-
ga ed a he weekly le el) om Aus ia’s Fede al Minis y
o Social A ai s, Heal h, Ca e and Consume P o ec ion
a he egional le el as he (log o he) sha e o hose pe -
sons in he o al popula ion who had ecei ed wo doses.
The accina ion da a a e a ailable a he NUTS 2 le el,
which we agg ega e o he NUTS 1 le el, in acco dance
wi h he OJP egional classi ica ion (see Sec .2.1 abo e).
The sha e o accina ed pe son in he o al popula ion
(by he numbe o doses) is shown in Figu e A.5(Supple-
men a y Ma e ial 6) in he onlineappendix. I poin s o
wo s ong up ake phases o one and wo doses, wi h he
s onges phase occu ing in he i s hal o 2021, and a
much weake phase in au umn 2021, which began se -
e al weeks be o e he i h lockdown. This phase also saw
a sha p inc ease in he up ake o h ee doses, which is
conside ed o p o ide basic immunisa ion.
Du ing 2020, he Aus ian go e nmen also in oduced
se e al inancial suppo measu es (some o hem new)
o companies, indi iduals and o ganisa ions. These
we e in ended o p e en a possible wa e o insol en-
cies among domes ic companies and a apid ise in
unemploymen . The public aid package was subs an ial,
amoun ing o mo e han 10% o Aus ia’s 2019 GDP. The
measu es a ec ed demand o labou , as well as demand
o new hi es (which is he ocus o ou analysis). We
do acknowledge he impo ance o hese measu es, bu
do no conside hem in ou analysis, due o he lim-
i ed g anula i y and equency o he da a. None heless,
Page 15 o 23 17 The esponse o labou demand odi e en COVID‑19 con ainmen measu es: e idence omonline…
second/ hi d lockdown. Speci ically, in se e al indus-
ies, pos ing ac i i y was below end be o e he sec-
ond/ hi d lockdown was li ed, bu quickly e u ned
o end le el, la gely in he week when he lockdown
was e en ually li ed. Howe e , in some indus ies— he
leisu e and hospi ali y indus y, as well as he IT, in e -
ne and elecommunica ions indus y—pos ing ac i -
i y emained a below end o he 5weeks he ea e .
By con as , pos ing ac i i y in he consul ing se ices
indus y ba ely esponded o he end o he lockdown,
and emained sligh ly abo e end h oughou he en i e
7-week window a ound he end o he lockdown ( hough
no always signi ican ).
In mos indus ies, pos ing ac i i y was abo e end
be o e he s a o he i h lockdown and emained
abo e end he ea e . A u he upwa d end is obse -
able in some indus ies, such as he public se ices and
u ili ies indus y, he wholesale and e ail ade indus y
( om week 2 onwa ds), and he heal h and social se -
ices indus y. Pa icula ly no ewo hy a e leisu e and
hospi ali y and he IT, in e ne and elecommunica ions
indus y: whe eas bo h p e ious lockdowns (beginning
Fig. 4 Weekly e ec s o indi idual lockdown e en s (beginning and end), by occupa ional g oup. The i s lockdown s a ed on 16 Ma ch 2020
and ended on 29 May 2020; he second and hi d lockdowns a e aken oge he and s a ed on 3 No embe 2020 and ended on 8 Feb ua y
2021; he i h lockdown e e s o he lockdown o he un accina ed and s a ed on 15 No embe 2021 and ended on 31 Janua y 2022. The i e
occupa ional g oups a e de ined as ollows (based on he ISCO-08 classi ica ion): manage s, p o essionals [manage s (ISCO-08: 1), p o essionals
(ISCO-08: 2)]; echnicians [ echnicians and associa e p o essionals (ISCO-08: 3)]; cle ks, cle ical wo ke s[cle ical suppo wo ke s (ISCO-08: 4)
and se ices and sales wo ke s (ISCO-08: 5)]; c a wo ke s [skilled ag icul u al, o es y and ishe y wo ke s (ISCO-08: 6) and c a and ela ed ades
wo ke s (ISCO-08: 7)]; and manual wo ke s [plan and machine ope a o s and assemble s (ISCO-08: 8) and elemen a y occupa ions (ISCO-08: 9)].
The e ical o ange line e e s o he es ed e en (i.e. he beginning o end o a lockdown). Only he be a coe icien s o he weekly dummies
om Eq. (3) a e shown he e. The ime dependen elewo kabili y index, a ime end and indus y ixed e ec s a e included in he es ima ions. The
ull esul s a e epo ed in Table A.4 (Supplemen a y Ma e ial 9) in he online appendix. E o ba s e e o 95% con idence in e als, which a e based
on clus e ed co a iance ma ix s anda d e o s (Sou ce: ka ie e.a , own calcula ions)
17 Page 16 o 23
S.M.Lei ne , O.Rei e
and end) had hi he leisu e and hospi ali y indus y
pa icula ly badly, he s a o he las lockdown had no
signi ican e ec . Meanwhile, in he IT, in e ne and el-
ecommunica ions indus y, a nega i e e ec was also
obse able o he i h lockdown, bu he coe icien s
we e all insigni ican (excep o one), poin ing o a e u n
o end le el. Gene ally, pos ing ac i i y a ound he end
o he i h lockdown was e y simila o pos ing ac i -
i y a ound i s beginning: in all indus ies, i was al eady
abo e end be o e he end o he i h lockdown, and
emained abo e end he ea e . The s onges abo e-
end pos ing ac i i y was seen in he public se ices and
u ili ies indus y.
4.2.3 E ec s byNUTS 1 egion
Figu e6 shows he esul s o he weekly e ec s o he
h ee lockdown e en s conside ed, o each o he ou
NUTS 1 egions: No h, Eas , Sou h and Wes . As abo e,
he esul s e e o a speci ica ion ha includes occu-
pa ional ixed e ec s—in addi ion o a ime end and
indus y ixed e ec s—since his p oduces he lowes
RMSE sco es.15
The esul s o he i s lockdown indica e simila slug-
gish esponse pa e ns ac oss all egions. Pos ing ac i i y
ba ely esponded o he announcemen o he lockdown,
bu hen d opped o below end when he lockdown
s a ed and declined u he o e he nex 4weeks, be o e
imp o ing somewha du ing he 5 h week o lockdown.
O e all, howe e , he nega i e esponse was s onges
in he Eas e n egion. The end o he i s lockdown also
led o simila esponses ac oss egions, wi h below- end
pos ing ac i i y p io o he end, and a slow bu s eady
eco e y o e he subsequen weeks. Howe e , in none o
he egions did i ully ca ch up wi h end ac i i y wi hin
he 5-week ime window analysed.
Ra he simila pa e ns ac oss he egions a e also
obse able o he second/ hi d lockdown. Howe e , he
esponses we e gene ally quicke . Speci ically, he e was a
s ong announcemen e ec in all egions, hough i was
mos p onounced in he Sou he n egion. The ac ual s a
o he lockdown ailed o elici any u he d op in pos -
ing ac i i y, which emained ai ly s able (a below end)
o e he ollowing weeks, be o e d opping in he 5 h
week o he lockdown. This pa e n is mainly obse able
o he No he n and Eas e n egions. In he Sou he n
and Wes e n egions, pos ing ac i i y had al eady s a ed
o decline somewha ea lie . The esul s o he end o he
second/ hi d lockdown sugges ha pos ing ac i i y was
al eady a end le el be o e he end o he lockdown was
announced. The only no able excep ion was he Wes -
e n egion, whe e pos ing ac i i y emained below end
e en a e he lockdown was li ed. The s onge o e -
all decline and slowe eco e y in he Wes e n egion is
ela ed o he impo ance o ou ism in he egion: i was
hi pa icula ly ha d by his lockdown, which shu down
mos o i s win e ou is season.
The i h lockdown esul ed in somewha di e en
esponses in pos ing ac i i y in he ou egions. Gene -
ally, pos ing ac i i y was abo e end om he ime o
he announcemen , and emained abo e end he ea -
e . In he No he n and Eas e n egions, pos ing ac i -
i y emained s able (a abo e end) o e he ollowing
weeks, be o e inc easing in he 5 h week o lockdown.
Con e sely, in he Sou he n egion, pos ing ac i i y con-
inued o inc ease o e he 5weeks ollowing he end o
lockdown. A simila upwa d end is also obse able in
Fig. 5 a Weekly e ec s o indi idual lockdown e en s (beginning and end), by indus y. The i s lockdown s a ed on 16 Ma ch 2020 and ended
on 29 May 2020; he second and hi d lockdowns a e aken oge he and s a ed on 3 No embe 2020 and ended on 8 Feb ua y 2021; he i h
lockdown e e s o he lockdown o he un accina ed and s a ed on 15 No embe 2021 and ended on 31 Janua y 2022. The e ical o ange
line e e s o he es ed e en (i.e. he beginning o end o a lockdown). Only he be a coe icien s o he weekly dummies om Eq. (3) a e
shown he e. Occupa ional ixed e ec s, a ime end and indus y ixed e ec s a e included in he es ima ions. The ull esul s a e epo ed
in Table A.5 (Supplemen a y Ma e ial 10) in he appendix. E o ba s e e o 95% con idence in e als, which a e based on clus e ed co a iance
ma ix s anda d e o s. Sou ce: ka ie e.a , own calcula ions. b Weekly e ec s o indi idual lockdown e en s (beginning and end), by indus y.
The i s lockdown s a ed on 16 Ma ch 2020 and ended on 29 May 2020; he second and hi d lockdowns a e aken oge he and s a ed on 3
No embe 2020 and ended on 8 Feb ua y 2021; he i h lockdown e e s o he lockdown o he un accina ed and s a ed on 15 No embe
2021 and ended on 31 Janua y 2022. The e ical o ange line e e s o he es ed e en (i.e. he beginning o end o a lockdown). Only he be a
coe icien s o he weekly dummies om Eq. (3) a e shown he e. Occupa ional ixed e ec s, a ime end and indus y ixed e ec s a e included
in he es ima ions. The ull esul s a e epo ed in Table A.5 (Supplemen a y Ma e ial 10) in he online appendix. E o ba s e e o 95% con idence
in e als, which a e based on clus e ed co a iance ma ix s anda d e o s (Sou ce: ka ie e.a , own calcula ions)
(See igu e on nex page.)
15 The ull esul s a e epo ed in Table A.6 in he appendix.
Page 17 o 23 17 The esponse o labou demand odi e en COVID‑19 con ainmen measu es: e idence omonline…
he Wes e n egion, bu wi h a sligh delay. The end o he
las lockdown is also associa ed wi h abo e- end pos ing
ac i i y in all egions. Bu while pos ing ac i i y ollowed
a mode a e U-shaped pa e n in he No he n egion and
a sideways mo emen in he Eas e n egion, i showed a
downwa d end in he Wes e n and Sou he n egions.
Fig. 5 (See legend on p e ious page.)
17 Page 18 o 23
S.M.Lei ne , O.Rei e
4.3 E ec o he accina ion oll‑ou p og amme
Tables A.7 and A.8(Supplemen a y Ma e ial 12 and 13)
in he onlineappendixp o ide he esul s o he e ec
o he accina ion oll-ou p og amme on pos ing ac i -
i y—bo h he comple e e ec s ( o he whole lockdown
pe iod) and he weekly es ima ions. Since he accina-
ions mainly became a ailable om ea ly 2021 onwa ds,
we ocus on he second/ hi d and i h lockdowns, bu
expand he ime window o accoun o hei slow oll-
ou and up ake. In he analysis, we also es o non-line-
a i y in he accina ion oll-ou p og amme by including
a squa ed e m o he (log o he) sha e o he accina ed
in a egion, in addi ion o he (log o he) sha e o he ac-
cina ed in he same egion. The p esence o a po en ial
minimum o maximum has impo an implica ions o
bo h heal h and labou ma ke policy. In bo h ables,
column (1) e e s o he main model, while column (3)
e e s o he in e ac ion model, including in e ac ion
e ms be ween he sha e o people in he popula ion o
he NUTS 1 egion wi h wo doses, and he dummies o
he second/ hi d and i h lockdowns. In addi ion, non-
linea i y in he main model and he in e ac ion model is
epo ed in columns (2) and (4), espec i ely. The esul s
o he weekly es ima ions a e also shown in Fig.7 below,
wi h he op panel showing he coe icien s o he weekly
dummies and he bo om panel showing he coe icien s
o he weekly in e ac ion e ms. The log o he sha e o
he accina ed has been cen ed o ease in e p e a ion.
Fig. 6 Weekly e ec s o indi idual lockdown e en s (beginning and end), by NUTS 1 egion. The i s lockdown s a ed on 16 Ma ch 2020
and ended on 29 May 2020; he second and hi d lockdowns a e aken oge he and s a ed on 3 No embe 2020 and ended on 8 Feb ua y 2021;
he i h lockdown e e s o he lockdown o he un accina ed and s a ed on 15 No embe 2021 and ended on 31 Janua y 2022. ‘No he n
egion’ e e s o Uppe Aus ia; ‘Eas e n egion’ o he capi al ci y Vienna, Lowe Aus ia and Bu genland; ‘Sou he n egion’ o S y ia and Ca in hia;
and ‘Wes e n egion’ o Salzbu g, Ty ol and Vo a lbe g. The e ical o ange line e e s o he es ed e en (i.e. he beginning o end o a lockdown).
Only he be a coe icien s o he weekly dummies om Eq. (3) a e shown he e. Occupa ional ixed e ec s, a ime end and indus y ixed e ec s
a e included in he es ima ions. The ull esul s a e epo ed in Table A.6 (Supplemen a y Ma e ial 11) in he online appendix. E o ba s e e o 95%
con idence in e als, which a e based on clus e ed co a iance ma ix s anda d e o s (Sou ce: ka ie e.a , own calcula ions)
Page 19 o 23 17 The esponse o labou demand odi e en COVID‑19 con ainmen measu es: e idence omonline…
Gene ally, he esul s show ha pos ing ac i i y was
signi ican ly highe in hose egions whe e he sha e
o pe sons who had had wo COVID-19 accine doses
was g ea e [see column (1) in Tables A.7 and A.8(Sup-
plemen a y Ma e ial 12 and 13)], unde sco ing he ac
ha he COVID-19 accines had a posi i e employ-
men e ec . Speci ically, he coe icien s sugges ha an
inc ease in he sha e o accina ed pe sons in a egion by
1% was associa ed wi h a 7% ise in pos ing ac i i y.
Mo eo e , he esul s om he in e ac ion model o he
comple e lockdown es ima ions poin o a di e en ia ed
e ec o accina ions du ing he lockdowns [see column
(3) in Table A.7(Supplemen a y Ma e ial 12)]. The posi-
i e coe icien s sugges ha hose egions wi h a highe
sha e o accina ed pe sons also had s onge pos ing
ac i i y du ing he lockdowns. This is pa icula ly he
case o he second/ hi d lockdown, while he e ec is
only ma ginally signi ican o he i h lockdown.
The esul s o he weekly lockdown es ima ions [see
he op panel in Fig.7 o column (1) in Table A.8(Sup-
plemen a y Ma e ial 13) in he onlineappendix] poin
o simila adjus men pa e ns as in Fig.3 [and column
(3) in Table A.3], whe e he esul s o he i h lockdown
a e mos eliable, due o he s onge accina ion up ake
in 2021. Hence, e en a e con olling o accina ion
up ake in he popula ion, in addi ion o a ime end and
occupa ional, indus y and egional e ec s, he posi i e
esponses du ing he i h lockdown pe sis . This sug-
ges s ha he abo e- end pos ing ac i i ies obse able
du ing he i h lockdown we e independen o ei he
occupa ional di e ences ( ela ed o di e ences in el-
ewo kabili y, o ins ance) o he up ake o accina ions,
and we e mo e likely a e lec ion o a s ong mood o
op imism among employe s and ea ly hi ing ac i i ies in
an icipa ion o he end o he COVID-19 pandemic and
in p epa a ion o a quick eco e y, as seen a e he end
o p e ious lockdowns.
Mo eo e , he indings om he in e ac ion model o
he weekly lockdown es ima ions also show ha he coe -
icien s o bo h lockdowns a e mos ly posi i e bu con-
sis en ly insigni ican [see he bo om panel in Fig.7 o
column (3) in Table A.8(Supplemen a y Ma e ial 13) in
he onlineappendix]. This sugges s ha he sha e o he
accina ed made no di e ence in e ms o pos ing ac i -
i y in any o he indi idual lockdown weeks, and could
no gene a e addi ional demand o new hi es.
Finally, he esul s o he non-linea models [see col-
umn (2) in Tables A.7 and A.8(Supplemen a y Ma e ial
Fig. 7 Weekly lockdown e ec s ( op panel) and accina ion in e ac ions (bo om panel). The second and hi d lockdowns a e aken oge he ,
s a ing on 3 No embe 2020 and ending on 8 Feb ua y 2021; he i h lockdown e e s o he lockdown o he un accina ed and s a ed on 15
No embe 2021 and ended on 31 Janua y 2022. Only he be a coe icien s o he weekly dummies om Eq. (3) a e shown he e. Occupa ional ixed
e ec s, a ime end and indus y ixed e ec s a e included in he es ima ions. The ull esul s a e epo ed in Table A.8 (Supplemen a y Ma e ial 13)
in he online appendix. E o ba s e e o 95% con idence in e als, which a e based on clus e ed co a iance ma ix s anda d e o s (Sou ce: ka ie e.
a , own calcula ions)
17 Page 20 o 23
S.M.Lei ne , O.Rei e
12 and 13)] indica e non-linea i ies in he sha e o ac-
cina ed pe sons in a egion. Howe e , he es ima ed u n-
ing poin is a a ound 1.1% o 1.8%, which is e y nea
o he minimum o he ange o he sha e o accina ed
pe sons, so he e is insu icien e idence o a U-shaped
ela ionship. This also applies o he esul s o he
in e ac ion models [see column (4) in Tables A.7 and
A.8(Supplemen a y Ma e ial 12 and 13)], whe e he e is
e idence o non-linea i y only du ing he second/ hi d
lockdown. Howe e , he es ima ed u ning poin is again
e y close o ze o, indica ing insu icien e idence o a
lockdown-speci ic U-shaped ela ionship in he sha e o
accina ed pe sons.
5 Summa y andconclusion
This pape has analysed changes in he speed o labou
demand o new hi es in esponse o lockdowns ha
we e epea edly pu in place o con ain he sp ead o he
COVID-19 pandemic. I es ed whe he he unce ain y-
educing e ec o simila lockdowns in quick succession
inc eased he esponsi eness o he labou ma ke , allow-
ing o as e adjus men s, bo h a he beginning and a
he end o subsequen lockdowns.
I used a unique da ase o online job-pos ing da a,
and applied an e en s udy app oach o six COVID-19
e en s in Aus ia, namely he s a o h ee na ional lock-
downs and hei subsequen li ing be ween 2020 and
2022: (i) he i s and mos d ama ic na ional lockdown
(16 Ma ch 2020 o 29 May 2020); (ii) he second and hi d
na ional lockdowns oge he (which we e only sepa a ed
by 2days) (3 No embe 2020 o 8 Feb ua y 2021); and
(iii) he i h s ic na ional lockdown o he un acci-
na ed (15 No embe 2021 o 31 Janua y 2022). I looked
a he 2weeks be o e and he 5weeks a e each e en
in o de o iden i y a po en ial announcemen e ec , as
well as immedia e and lagged implemen a ion e ec s on
labou demand; and i analysed di e ences ac oss occu-
pa ions, indus ies and egions. Fu he mo e, gi en he
impo ance o p og ess in accina ion o labou ma ke
eco e y, he analysis looked a accine oll-ou as an
addi ional COVID-19 con ainmen measu e, wi h 2021
as he main oll-ou pe iod.
Ou esul s indica e qui e di e en esponses o he
a ious lockdowns and ela ed e en s. On a e age, job-
pos ing ac i i y declined by be ween 47 and 50% du ing
he i s lockdown and by be ween 29 and 31% du ing he
second/ hi d lockdown; bu i inc eased by 23% o 28%
du ing he inal lockdown. The di e ences ac oss lock-
downs a e ela ed o he na u e o he lockdowns and
he di e en economic esponses each o hem igge ed
(Baumga ne e al. 2022). The ela i ely modes slump
and quick eco e y associa ed wi h he las lockdown
p omp ed abo e- end pos ing ac i i y.
In line wi h ou hypo hesis, he indings o he e en
s udy analysis poin o as e and mo e symme ical
esponses o e la e lockdowns. Speci ically, pos ing
ac i i y esponded sluggishly o he i s lockdown: i
d opped below end a he s a o he i s lockdown
and declined u he o e he nex 4weeks, be o e eco -
e ing somewha . Pos ing ac i i y eco e ed slowly a e
he lockdown was li ed, bu ailed o e u n o end
wi hin he subsequen 5 weeks. Con e sely, pos ing
ac i i y al eady d opped subs an ially below end wi h
he announcemen o he second/ hi d lockdown, wi h
signs o a u he decline 5weeks in o he lockdown. The
end o lockdown did no elici any subs an ial esponse,
wi h pos ing ac i i y al eady back a end le el he week
be o e i was announced. Bo h he beginning and he end
o he i h lockdown saw abo e- end pos ing ac i i y
in he week be o e he announcemen s we e made, and
he e was li le change he ea e .
Fu he mo e, he esul s show ha elewo kabili y is
impo an : mo e- elewo kable occupa ions a ed be -
e du ing he lockdowns in e ms o highe demand.
This was ue o all bu he i s lockdown, du ing which
mo e- elewo kable occupa ions—especially echnicians,
and manage s and p o essionals—we e less in demand
han less- elewo kable occupa ions. This con as s wi h
wha is ypically ound in he li e a u e (Che y e al.
2023; Flisi and San angelo 2022; Sos e o e al. 2020) and
highligh s he ac ha mo e- elewo kable and highly
skilled occupa ions we e gene ally shielded no be e
om he nega i e e ec s o he lockdowns.
While he e is li le di e ence ac oss egions,
esponses o he a ious e en s di e by occupa ion
and indus y. Fo ins ance, o he highly skilled occupa-
ions o echnicians, manage s and p o essionals, pos -
ing ac i i y declined mos apidly and mos sha ply wi h
he s a o he i s lockdown, and eco e ed he leas
a e i was li ed; howe e , i ell o below end le el a
he ime o he announcemen o he s a o he second/
hi d lockdown and immedia ely e u ned o end le el
wi h he announcemen o i s end; i mo ed o abo e
end le el wi h he announcemen o he i h lockdown
and was al eady abo e end le el e en be o e he end
was announced. By con as , o manual wo ke s pos ing
ac i i y ba ely esponded o ei he he s a o he end
o he i s lockdown, which was p obably ela ed o he
impo ance o such wo ke s in hose essen ial sec o s
ha con inued ope a ions; howe e , i d opped sha ply
a he beginning o he second/ hi d lockdown, be o e
immedia ely e u ning o end le el wi h he announce-
men o i s end. I e u ned o—and subsequen ly
emained a — end le el a he ime o he announce-
men o he i h lockdown and showed mo e e a ic
esponses a i s end.
Page 21 o 23 17 The esponse o labou demand odi e en COVID‑19 con ainmen measu es: e idence omonline…
The mos no able e ec s a e obse able in leisu e and
hospi ali y (which includes accommoda ion and ood se -
ices, and a s, en e ainmen and ec ea ion) and in he
IT, in e ne and elecommunica ions indus y. O e all, as
expec ed, leisu e and hospi ali y saw he la ges declines
and he slowes eco e ies in pos ing ac i i y, sugges -
ing ha ha sec o will ake longe o ebound and ully
eco e . Speci ically, i expe ienced a s ong decline in
pos ing ac i i y a he beginning o he i s lockdown,
due o he manda o y closu es and he widesp ead a el
es ic ions and bans ha hi his indus y pa icula ly
ha d. Reco e y was hen oughly as slow as in all o he
indus ies a e he lockdown was li ed. Likewise, due o
simila lockdown measu es, pos ing ac i i y ell o (and
emained a ) below end a he s a o he second/ hi d
lockdown and emained well below end o he 5weeks
a e i was li ed. Con e sely, whe eas he s a o he
i h lockdown had no signi ican e ec , pos ing ac i i y
was sligh ly abo e end a he end o ha lockdown and
emained sligh ly abo e end he ea e .
By con as , he IT, in e ne and elecommunica ions
indus y showed pos ing ac i i y de eloping in he oppo-
si e di ec ion o he o he indus ies. Speci ically, pos ing
ac i i y emained abo e end o almos he en i e i s
lockdown pe iod. This is ela ed o he ac ha COVID-
19 led o a su ge in e-comme ce and an accele a ion o
he digi al ans o ma ion, wi h many people s a ing o
wo k om home; his p omp ed businesses o inc eas-
ingly seek IT expe s o mee he eme ging digi al chal-
lenges and o implemen new digi al solu ions. Pos ing
ac i i y s a ed a abo e end, bu hen ell o below
end when he second/ hi d lockdown began, and
emained a below end o he 5 weeks he ea e ;
his sugges s ei he ha he digi al ans o ma ion was
al eady su icien ly ad anced in mos businesses (so ha
demand o IT expe s declined again) o ha businesses
an icipa ed he second/ hi d lockdown and b ough
hei hi ing ac i i ies o wa d. Simila ly, pos ing ac i -
i y emained a below end o he 5weeks a e he
lockdown was li ed. A nega i e bu insigni ican e ec is
also obse able o he i h lockdown, indica ing ha he
COVID-19-induced digi al ans o ma ion was al eady
comple e, since he demand o IT expe s was back o
end le el.
Finally, as conce ns accine oll-ou , he esul s indi-
ca e ha pos ing ac i i y was signi ican ly highe in
egions wi h a g ea e sha e o pe sons who had ecei ed
wo doses o a COVID-19 accine. In pa icula , ou es i-
ma ions sugges ha a 1% inc ease in he log o he sha e
o he accina ed is associa ed wi h a 7% inc ease in pos -
ing ac i i y. Howe e , he e is li le obus e idence o a
di e en ia ed e ec du ing he lockdowns. We also ind
insu icien e idence o a U-shaped ela ionship, ei he
gene ally o wi h speci ic e e ence o he lockdowns.
O e all, ou indings poin o he impo ance o s udy-
ing epea ed lockdowns—some hing ha he li e a u e
has ailed o add ess, due o i s na ow ocus on he i s
lockdown (and in many cases e en jus he beginning o
he i s lockdown). In line wi h his li e a u e, ou esul s
indica e a a he sluggish esponse o bo h he beginning
and he end o he i s lockdown, wi h a slow decline
a he beginning and a e y slow eco e y a e i was
li ed. Howe e , ou s udy o epea ed lockdowns shows
ha he demand o new hi es esponded mo e quickly
o bo h he beginning and he end o subsequen lock-
downs, sugges ing ha unce ain y- educing lea ning
e ec s allowed o as e adjus men o simila shocks.
This is an impo an and posi i e inding, since la ge pan-
demics like COVID-19 a e inc easingly likely (Ma ani
e al. 2021), making epea ed lockdown-like measu es
mo e p obable. O pa icula impo ance in his con ex
is he quicke —a imes e en ins an aneous— eco e y
(i.e. e u n o end le el as soon as he announcemen
was made o he end o he lockdown) du ing subsequen
lockdowns, which allows o mo e apid o e all eco e y.
Impo an ly, we also ind ha accina ion is a c i i-
cal ac o in labou ma ke eco e y (Kiss e al. 2022;
Mosbah and Dha mapala 2022) and is associa ed wi h
s onge pos ing ac i i y. This unde sco es he poin
ha , as well as ha ing a p o ec i e e ec agains se i-
ous illness and dea h (Zheng e al. 2022), accina ion
also a ec s demand o new hi es, making i an impo -
an policy ool om a labou ma ke pe spec i e, oo.
Howe e , ou esul s also show ha accina ion made
no di e ence o pos ing ac i i y du ing he lockdowns.
This was pa icula ly ue o he i h lockdown, which
di e en ia ed by accina ion s a us and allowed o
meaning ul empi ical analysis, hanks o he adequa e
accina ion up ake in he popula ion. This inding has
impo an policy implica ions, as i sugges s ha he
accina ion oll-ou —which, like he lockdowns, also
aimed a p o ec ing he popula ion—had no addi ional
demand-enhancing e ec on new hi es (o e and abo e
he lockdowns). Mo eo e , we do no ind su icien
e idence o a u ning poin in he e ec o accina-
ion on he demand o new hi es. Hence, he e is no
e idence o he impo ance o a minimum o op imal
accina ion policy (in e ms o a minimum sha e o he
accina ed o be exceeded o a maximum sha e o be
eached/no exceeded) in labou ma ke eco e y.
Like o he s udies, ou analysis also shows ha he e
a e winne s and lose s om lockdowns. Howe e , ou
analysis o a se ies o lockdowns shows ha his is o en
only empo a y and can e en shi be ween lockdowns.
17 Page 22 o 23
S.M.Lei ne , O.Rei e
Fo ins ance, we ind ha he highly skilled—and mo e-
elewo kable—occupa ions o echnicians, manage s
and p o essionals expe ienced he s onges posi i e and
nega i e esponses. Thus, con a y o wha is ypically
ound in he li e a u e, he c isis also ad e sely a ec ed
he highly skilled, a leas empo a ily and only du ing
he i s lockdown, while he ad an age o elewo kabil-
i y only kicked in du ing he subsequen lockdowns. Fu -
he mo e, we ind pe sis en abo e- end pos ing ac i i y
in he IT, in e ne and elecommunica ions indus y,
bu his was only obse ed du ing he i s lockdown; i
subsequen ly e e sed and hen e u ned o end le el
du ing he las lockdown. Hence, he e y posi i e job-
pos ing ac i i y o he i s lockdown was no epea ed
du ing subsequen lockdowns.
Finally, ou esul s likewise sugges ha lockdowns
may be el longe in some indus ies han in o he s. Spe-
ci ically, leisu e and hospi ali y no only saw he la ges
declines, bu also he slowes eco e ies in pos ing ac i -
i y, sugges ing ha i may ake longe o ha indus y o
ebound and eco e ully. This is a key indus y o Aus-
ia, especially in i s Wes e n p o inces, and equi es pol-
icy in e en ion o help encou age new hi ing, especially
agains he backd op o simul aneous labou sho ages
in he indus y (Do nmay and Riepl 2022), which we e
exace ba ed du ing and a e he COVID-19 pandemic by
he non- e u n o o eign wo ke s, on whom he indus y
is hea ily dependen , and by wo ke s who ‘le ’ he indus-
y pe manen ly du ing he pandemic, due o unce ain
employmen and income p ospec s.
Supplemen a y In o ma ion
The online e sion con ains supplemen a y ma e ial a ailable a h ps:// doi.
o g/ 10. 1186/ s12651- 024- 00376-9.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 1.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 2.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 3.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 4.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 5.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 6.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 7.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 8.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 9.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 10.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 11.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 12.
Supplemen a y Ma e ial 13.
Acknowledgemen s
Suppo p o ided by he Aus ian Science Fund o his esea ch is g a e ully
acknowledged. We also hank Michael Landesmann and Geo g Fische o
help ul commen s and discussions.
Au ho con ibu ions
S.L and O.R. designed he s udy; O.R. analysed he da a; S.L. ga e eedback on
esul s and sugges ed me hodological adjus men s; S.L and O.R w o e he
pape .
Funding
Resea ch o his pape was inanced by he Aus ian Science Fund (P ojec No.
P 35180-G).
Da a a ailabili y
The da a ha suppo he indings o his s udy a e a ailable om ka ie e.a ,
bu es ic ions apply o he a ailabili y o hese da a, which we e used unde
licence o he cu en s udy and so a e no publicly a ailable. The da a a e,
howe e , a ailable om he au ho s upon easonable eques and wi h he
pe mission o ka ie e.a .
Code a ailabili y
The codes o all analyses epo ed in his pape a e a ailable on eques .
Decla a ions
Compe ing in e es s
The au ho s decla e no compe ing in e es s.
Recei ed: 20 Decembe 2023 Accep ed: 22 July 2024
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Publishe ’s No e
Sp inge Na u e emains neu al wi h ega d o ju isdic ional claims in pub-
lished maps and ins i u ional a ilia ions.
