Codogno, Lo enzo
Resea ch Repo
I aly's Supe bonus 110%: Messing up wi h demand
s imulus and he need o ein en iscal policy
IMK S udy, No. 93
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Mac oeconomic Policy Ins i u e (IMK) a he Hans Boeckle Founda ion
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Codogno, Lo enzo (2024) : I aly's Supe bonus 110%: Messing up wi h demand
s imulus and he need o ein en iscal policy, IMK S udy, No. 93, Hans-Böckle -S i ung, Ins i u ü
Mak oökonomie und Konjunk u o schung (IMK), Düsseldo
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STUDY
No. 93 • July 2024 • Hans-Böckle -S i ung
ITALY’S SUPERBONUS 110%:
MESSING UP WITH DEMAND
STIMULUS AND THE NEED TO
REINVENT FISCAL POLICY
Lo enzo Codogno1
ABSTRACT
Since he Global Financial C isis in 2008-2009, he e has been lou ishing li e a u e on
he ole o iscal policy in s imula ing demand when he economy is in a deep ecession.
Pas s udies sugges he s imulus may make sense i i is empo a y, a ge ed, and
wi hd awn quickly. Howe e , since he pandemic, he e has been a case o going big,
when necessa y, o p op up expec a ion, con idence and demand. This was exempli ied
by I aly’s Supe bonus 110%, a gene ous subsidy scheme o allow he ene gy-e icien
eno a ion o esiden ial buildings, which eme ged as a signi ican policy esponse o
he economic challenges posed by he pandemic. I a gue ha he Supe bonus, while
ha ing a espec able economic aim, ended up impinging on he same sec o s suppo ed
by he EU- unded in es men plan, esul ing in signi ican capaci y cons ain s and mis-
alloca ion o esou ces. I s excessi e gene osi y b ough a massi e de e io a ion in pub-
lic inances, while i s e u ns in e ms o economic g ow h we e sho o expec a ions. I
conclude by d awing some policy lessons om I aly’s expe ience, on wha should be
p ese ed and a oided, and on a possible ein en ed ole o iscal policy in deep eco-
nomic c isis.2
—————————
1 London School o Economics and Poli ical Science, College o Eu ope, and LUISS LEAP,
email [email p o ec ed]
2 Upda ed wi h in o ma ion a ailable as o 16 June 2024.
I aly’s Supe bonus 110%:
Messing up wi h demand s imulus
and he need o ein en iscal policy*
Ve sion: 16 June 2024
Lo enzo Codogno
London School o Economics and Poli ical Science, College o Eu ope, and
LUISS LEAP
Abs ac
Since he Global Financial C isis in 2008-2009, he e has been lou ishing li e a u e on he
ole o iscal policy in s imula ing demand when he economy is in a deep ecession. Pas
s udies sugges he s imulus may make sense i i is empo a y, a ge ed, and wi hd awn
quickly. Howe e , since he pandemic, he e has been a case o going big, when necessa y,
o p op up expec a ion, con idence and demand. This was exempli ied by I aly’s
Supe bonus 110%, a gene ous subsidy scheme o allow he ene gy-e icien eno a ion o
esiden ial buildings, which eme ged as a signi ican policy esponse o he economic
challenges posed by he pandemic. I a gue ha he Supe bonus, while ha ing a espec able
economic aim, ended up impinging on he same sec o s suppo ed by he EU- unded
in es men plan, esul ing in signi ican capaci y cons ain s and misalloca ion o esou ces.
I s excessi e gene osi y b ough a massi e de e io a ion in public inances, while i s e u ns
in e ms o economic g ow h we e sho o expec a ions. I conclude by d awing some
policy lessons om I aly’s expe ience, on wha should be p ese ed and a oided, and on a
possible ein en ed ole o iscal policy in deep economic c isis.
JEL Classi ica ion: E61, H60, H12
Keywo ds: Policy Designs and Consis ency; Na ional Budge , De ici and Deb ; C isis managemen
* Kindly inanced by Ins i u ü Mak oökonomie und Konjunk u o schung (IMK), Hans-Böckle -S i ung,
Düsseldo . I am especially g a e ul o Sebas ian Dullien and Sebas ian Wa zka. The iews exp essed in his
pape a e hose o he au ho only and do no necessa ily e lec hose o he Hans-Böckle -S i ung and he
ins i u ions wi h which he au ho is o was a ilia ed in he pas .
E-mail add esses: [email protected]
2
1. In oduc ion
This pape is s uc u ed as ollows. I begins by del ing in o he academic li e a u e on
iscal s imulus and demand suppo o achie e socie al policy goals. I hen examines he
a ionale o I aly’s Supe bonus, a gene ous subsidy scheme o p omo e ene gy-e icien
eno a ion o esiden ial buildings, i s ou comes, and i s implica ions o public inances.
The pape si ua es policy ini ia i es unde aken in I aly wi hin he b oade discussion abou
he app op ia eness o ax incen i es o achie e socie al goals, how he legisla ion has been
applied in I aly, and how i has e ol ed. Impo an ly, i d aws signi ican policy lessons
om he Supe bonus 110%, shedding ligh on he app op ia eness o ax incen i e
schemes as coun e cyclical iscal ools o las - eso expedien in deep c ises, he eby
en iching he discou se on iscal policy in deep economic c ises.
The i s sec ion desc ibes how iscal policy has gained a ole in managing sho - e m
luc ua ions in agg ega e demand since he 2008-2009 c isis and i s d awbacks. The second
sec ion examines whe he he Supe bonus could be conside ed an e ec i e uncon en ional
iscal policy ool. The hi d desc ibes he mos signi ican adminis a i e/ egula o y/ iscal
s eps o I aly’s ax incen i es o esiden ial buildings. The ou h deals wi h he objec i es
o he policy ini ia i e. The six h b ie ly p esen s simila schemes in o he Eu opean
coun ies. The se en h p esen s e idence o he es ima ed impac o he Supe bonus on
GDP g ow h. The eigh h sec ion looks a he e ec on I aly’s public inances. Finally, he
nin h sec ion d aws some en a i e policy conclusions.
2. The new coun e cyclical ole o iscal policy
Since he 2008-2009 Global Financial C isis, he hinking on he ole o iscal policy in
s abilising cyclical luc ua ions has p o oundly shi ed.
Twen y o hi y yea s ago, i was belie ed iscal policy should ocus only on long- e m
s uc u al issues and enhancing po en ial g ow h. The pu pose o s abilising he economy
was seen wi h g ea suspicion due o he isk i would end up being p o-cyclical and e y
much in e wined wi h poli ical cycles. In o he wo ds, i was pe cei ed as ill-sui ed o
add ess luc ua ions in agg ega e demand. Acco ding o he p e ailing opinion, suppo ing
income should ha e been le o au oma ic s abilise s only, and disc e iona y policies
should ha e a oided in e ening, e en in deep economic c ises.
Unde aking new public in es men p ojec s du ing a ecession would ha e p oduced
ou comes only in a much mo e ad anced cyclical phase when he economy was al eady
eco e ing, i no o e hea ing. Mo eo e , he isk o public inances was pe cei ed o be
high. I was easy o inc ease public spending du ing a ecession, bu i was usually
challenging o ein in he ex a expendi u e when he cycle u ned expansiona y.
By con as , mone a y policy was pe cei ed as ex emely powe ul in s abilising he
economy. Mone a y policy was gene ally conside ed a mo e lexible and e ec i e ool o
s abilisa ion pu poses. Thus, i was exclusi ely up o mone a y policy o do ha job despi e
3
i s well-known long and a iable legs. Indeed, one o he main p oblems o iscal policy
was ela ed o i s e en longe ime lags in implemen a ion.
I was also he ime when Rudi Do nbusch (1998) amously decla ed he end o he
business cycle, as cen al banks had supposedly become so powe ul ha hey we e
expec ed o be able o s abilise he economy in all si ua ions. “No pos wa eco e y has
died in bed o old age— he Fede al Rese e has mu de ed e e y one o hem.” So su e o
he bene i s and e ec i eness o mone a y policy was Do nbusch ha he decla ed, “This
expansion will un o e e .” Un o una ely, he was w ong. The Global Financial C isis
d o e policy a es down o he E ec i e Lowe Bound (ELB), equi ing some help om
iscal policy.
As Jason Fu man (2016), he chai man o he Council o Economic Ad iso s unde
P esiden Obama, a gued, he Global Financial C isis o ced policymake s and economis s
o econside hese ideas. In ac , a ha ime, mos cen al banks had al eady b ough
in e es a es o o e en below ze o and injec ed an unp eceden ed amoun o highly
powe ed money in o he economy. The e was li le policy ammuni ion le in he a mou y
o cen al banks.
In 2008-2009, policymake s we e o ced o ac almos e e ywhe e o escue banks,
companies and people. Following he collapse in agg ega e demand, he app op ia eness o
gene ous iscal s imulus packages was no longe ques ioned, e en in academia. Ins ead, in
he yea s ha ollowed, he iming and ex en o which budge a y consolida ion should
ha e been in oduced in he eco e y phase was e y much deba ed and became
con o e sial. Se e al new heo ies o pieces o empi ical e idence on old heo ies we e pu
o wa d o es ablish a new pa adigm o p o ide he heo e ical unde pinning o a mo e
ac i is and o en expansiona y iscal s ance. Some wen as a as sugges ing ha so-called
aus e i y would con ibu e o making he deb less, a he han mo e, sus ainable, e en in
coun ies whe e i was al eady e y high, and ha any iscal consolida ion would ha e
become sel -de ea ing1.
I supply-side e ec s a e b ough in o he pic u e and meaning ully cap u ed by models, he
iscal s imulus could be bene icial, a leas in p inciple. This was indeed wha DeLong and
Summe s (2012) ied o a gue, i.e., he e may be ci cums ances in which sho - e m iscal
suppo does a ec he supply side o he economy and, he e o e, i s po en ial g ow h in
he long un. In a dep essed economy, wi h sho - e m nominal in e es a es a hei
e ec i e ze o lowe bound, ample cyclical unemploymen , and excess capaci y, “inc eased
go e nmen pu chases would be nei he o se by he mone a y au ho i y aising in e es
a es no neu alised by supply-side bo lenecks. Then e en a small amoun o hys e esis—
e en a small shadow cas on u u e po en ial ou pu by he cyclical down u n—means, by
simple a i hme ic, ha expansiona y iscal policy is likely o be sel - inancing.”
A e he 2008-2009 shock, he e was a deba e abou he possibili y o using highly
p oduc i e public in es men s ha signi ican ly aise g ow h in po en ial ou pu in a
ecession, a leas in p inciple. They would link he demand and he supply side o he
economy. Be o e, he p e ailing iew was ha such supply-side e ec s, hough non-
negligible, we e no s ong enough o o se he a i hme ical impac o a la ge de ici on
1 Fo e e ences and opposing a gumen s see Codogno and Galli (2017).
4
he s ock o deb and ha hey would ha e dis o ed he alloca ion o esou ces, e en ually
becoming coun e p oduc i e.
The sudden s op in he economy igge ed by he 2020 pandemic pushed o policy ac ion
again, e en ahead o any academic hinking. Since mone a y policy was al eady close o he
e ec i e lowe bound, he e was no choice bu o use iscal policy o e-ac i a e he
economy. Majo iscal plans we e announced in he US, Eu ope, and elsewhe e wi h he
delibe a e in en ion o p opping up expec a ions, suppo ing demand, and changing he
ou look o he economies simul aneously. In he EU, on op o na ional iscal s imulus, an
ex a dimension was in oduced, i.e. he one-o use o cen alised iscal capaci y o help
iscally cons ained coun ies.
The economic li e a u e de eloped a e he 2008-2009 c isis b ough oge he wo sepa a e
s ands o esea ch ha ha e been mo i a ed by he c isis: (1) he size o he mul iplie s—
which we e es ima ed o be conside ably la ge in imes o ecession—and (2) he so-called
‘hys e esis’, i.e. pe manen e ec s o a long and deep ecession on u u e po en ial ou pu .
The co e a gumen o his li e a u e mo i a ed he use o iscal policy o s abilise he
economy in imes o deep ecessions. I also laid he analy ical unde pinning o policy
in e en ion in 2020.
I was called ‘uncon en ional iscal policy’, which ypically e e s o a go e nmen ’s non-
s anda d o non- adi ional iscal measu es o manage i s economy, s abilise inancial
ma ke s, o add ess speci ic economic challenges. These measu es go beyond he usual
ools o iscal policy, such as changes in go e nmen spending and axa ion.
Uncon en ional iscal policies a e employed in excep ional ci cums ances, such as du ing
deep economic c ises o when mo e con en ional app oaches p o e insu icien . They can
include a ange o s a egies and ools and allow income edis ibu ion.
Many o hese uncon en ional ools ha e been widely used since 2020. The go e nmen
may p o ide di ec inancial suppo o speci ic indus ies, sec o s, o indi iduals o
s imula e economic ac i i y h ough g an s, subsidies, o low-in e es loans. I can p o ide
gua an ees o insu ance o backs op speci ic inancial ansac ions o in es men s, educing
pe cei ed isks and encou aging p i a e-sec o in es men and lending. I may en e in o
public-p i a e pa ne ships (PPPs) o und in as uc u e p ojec s o p o ide public se ices
in ol ing p i a e sec o pa icipa ion in adi ionally public sec o ac i i ies ha o he wise
would no be accessible. Uncon en ional iscal measu es can include es uc u ing p i a e
deb , ex ending ma u i y da es, lowe ing in e es a es, o e en pa ial deb o gi eness. The
go e nmen may es ablish special-pu pose unds o add ess speci ic economic challenges.
These unds a e designed o channel esou ces o a ge ed ini ia i es, such as echnology
de elopmen , disas e eco e y, o indus y e i alisa ion. Uncon en ional iscal policy can
ex end o mac op uden ial measu es ha aim o egula e and s abilise he inancial sys em.
These measu es can include capi al con ols, loan- o- alue a ios, and o he egula o y
ools. Many o hese ini ia i es ha e been unde aken in se e al coun ies since he Global
Financial C isis. Finally, hese policies could include ax incen i es o ene gy-e icien
eno a ion o esiden ial buildings, as in I aly’s Supe bonus 110%.
Uncon en ional iscal policy should be used du ing ex ao dina y ci cums ances, such as
inancial c ises, deep economic ecessions, o when adi ional iscal policies p o e
insu icien o add ess he challenges a hand. The e ec i eness o uncon en ional iscal
5
policies a ies, and hei success depends on he speci ic con ex in which hey a e applied.
They a e ypically conside ed when mo e con en ional ools ha e a limi ed impac . Ye ,
hey can ca y isks and unin ended consequences ha policymake s mus ca e ully assess.
I no wi hd awn in a imely manne , hese measu es can impinge on he p ope
unc ioning o a ma ke economy.
Mo eo e , hey may lead o public inance p oblems, as hese measu es may p o e
expensi e. Cu ing heo y sho , naï e suppo e s o expansiona y iscal policies and some
poli icians sugges ed ha he in e es a e cos legacy and he deb accumula ed du ing a
ecession would be en i ely co e ed by he highe axes gene a ed by he e ec s o he
policy s imulus on sho - e m economic g ow h and possibly long- un po en ial ou pu . In
my iew, i is ins ead ha d o a gue agains he need o iscal consolida ion ollowing he
use o such uncon en ional policy ools. A policy-induced highe income oday has o be
ollowed by a policy-induced lowe income some ime in he u u e, whose in ensi y
depends on he cu en and u u e s a e o he economic cycle.
A simple es a emen o Paul Samuleson’s o go en heo em (1940) should sugges ha
iscal mul iplie s canno be so high as o cause an inc ease in ax e enue ha b ings he
budge back o balance a e an ini ial iscal s imulus. The mul iplie -accele a o e ec s on
p i a e in es men , i.e. he supposed ‘ ax mi acle’ by which a la ge mul iplie b ings abou a
subs an ial inc ease in ax e enue o balance he budge , was indeed no ully unde s ood
in some policy qua e s a ha ime as i is no oday. Some conside he ad e se e ec on
he deb smalle han he posi i e one on na ional income, so iscal expansion educes he
deb a io. Indeed, he p oposi ion may be accu a e, bu only in he sho un and in
speci ic ci cums ances. O e ime, e en highly-powe ed in es men s a e bound o wo sen
he deb ou look i hey do no gene a e a sizeable supply-side e ec . The si ua ion in
which bo owing a es a e close o ze o, as in 2020, does no change he pic u e, al hough
i makes he inancing cos smalle .
Along he lines o DeLong and Summe s, he use o massi e iscal s imulus as a
coun e cyclical ool should apply o a e si ua ions, such as he deep ecession o 2008-
2009 o he sudden s op o 2020. Mo eo e , his iew jus i ies only empo a y and a ge ed
iscal s imulus. A highe de ici is wa an ed o a yea o mo e, bu once he ecession
ends, i should be eined in. The ini ial s imulus should be wi hd awn once he economy is
back on ack, i.e. excep ional policy ools mus be used only du ing ex ao dina y imes
and emo ed quickly.
The decision o a ious I alian go e nmen s (and Pa liamen ) o in oduce and hen no
wi hd aw he ex emely gene ous iscal incen i es o he ene gy-e icien eno a ion o
esiden ial buildings in a imely manne could be seen as a massi e and unp eceden ed
policy expe imen . The app op ia eness o in oducing la ish ax incen i es o encou age
speci ic economic ac i i ies o in es men s o p omo e socially desi able aims, such as
ene gy-e icien eno a ions o dwellings, has become e y much pa o he public deba e
bu has no ye ound a clea heo e ical unde pinning in academia.
6
3. Can he Supe bonus be conside ed uncon en ional iscal
policy?
I aly’s Supe bonus 110% scheme is no ypically conside ed an uncon en ional iscal policy
ool in he same sense as some o he abo emen ioned measu es. Ins ead, he Supe bonus
is mo e in line wi h con en ional budge a y and ax policies a ge ed o speci ic policy aims,
and speci ically, i is a ‘ ax expendi u e’. He e a e a ew easons why he Supe bonus would
no ypically be classi ied as an uncon en ional iscal policy ool:
1. Na u e o he incen i e: The Supe bonus p ima ily in ol es o e ing ax c edi s o
homeowne s o eligible expenses ela ed o ene gy e iciency and seismic sa e y
imp o emen s. I is a ax policy ha encou ages speci ic beha iou s, such as in es ing
in home eno a ions o enhance ene gy e iciency and sa e y. While he ax c edi s can
be gene ous, he na u e o he incen i e is iscal and ax- ela ed a he han
uncon en ional. I educes ax e enues.
2. Policy objec i es: The Supe bonus is designed o achie e speci ic policy objec i es
ela ed o ene gy e iciency, en i onmen al sus ainabili y, and seismic sa e y. I is mo e
di ec ly aligned wi h hese policy goals han b oade economic s abilisa ion o inancial
ma ke managemen , o en associa ed wi h uncon en ional iscal policies.
3. Widesp ead applica ion: The Supe bonus scheme is in ended o bene i a b oad ange
o homeowne s and esiden ial p ope y owne s. Uncon en ional iscal policies end o
be mo e a ge ed and o en in oduced du ing excep ional ci cums ances o add ess
speci ic economic challenges o c ises.
Uncon en ional iscal policies a e ypically used in si ua ions ha equi e ex ao dina y
measu es, such as economic ecessions, inancial c ises, o se e e ma ke dis up ions.
These measu es o en in ol e di ec inancial in e en ions, asse pu chases, gua an ees,
and o he non-s anda d app oaches o s abilise he economy o inancial ma ke s, bu no
b oad-based ax incen i es.
Ye , he classi ica ion o policies can a y depending on he pe spec i e and con ex in
which hey a e implemen ed. The Supe bonus 110% may indeed be conside ed an
uncon en ional o inno a i e app oach because he amendmen s made in 2020 changed
he na u e and policy objec i es o housing eno a ion incen i es, p ima ily due o hei
gene osi y, alignmen o in e es s, and ans e abili y. A he e y leas , he ci cums ances
when hese ini ia i es we e decided we e indeed excep ional.
4. His o y o ax incen i es o esiden ial buildings in I aly
Subsidies o house eno a ions o achie e he policy goals o educing ene gy
consump ion and o he socially and poli ically desi able objec i es a e no new in I aly and
he Eu opean Union. In I aly, hese incen i es p e-da ed he Co id shock and, wi h mo e
o less gene osi y, ha e been a cons an ea u e o policymaking o a numbe o yea s. In
ac , he e is a long his o y o a ious incen i es and p og ammes aimed a p omo ing
7
housing eno a ions and imp o ing he ene gy e iciency and seismic sa e y o esiden ial
buildings. The incen i es and p og ammes ha e e ol ed in esponse o changing economic,
en i onmen al, and socie al needs. He e a e some o he majo legisla i e ac s and
egula ions ha ha e signi ican ly shaped housing incen i es, including he Supe bonus and
p e ious ini ia i es ela ed o housing eno a ions and ene gy e iciency.
1. In he 1970s and 1980s, I aly in oduced ax incen i es and subsidies o encou age
homeowne s o eno a e hei p ope ies. These incen i es we e p ima ily aimed a
p omo ing gene al building imp o emen s and main enance.
2. In he 1990s, I aly began o add ess he issue o seismic sa e y mo e se iously, gi en he
coun y’s suscep ibili y o ea hquakes. The go e nmen in oduced p og ammes o
suppo seismic e o i ing and he s eng hening o buildings. These ini ia i es we e
designed o make olde s uc u es mo e esilien o seismic ac i i y.
3. In 1997, A icle 1 o he Budge Law (No.449/1997, P odi I go e nmen ) in oduced a
deduc ion om pe sonal income ela i e o he cos s incu ed o eno a e dwellings,
now called ‘house bonus’. The main objec i e was o educe ax e asion o wo ks
pe o med on p i a e esiden ial buildings. E en ually, he ax p o ision was
in oduced in he Tax Code in 2013 (A icle No.16-bis) o become a pe manen ea u e.
4. In he ea ly 2000s, I aly implemen ed incen i es o p omo e ene gy e iciency
imp o emen s in esiden ial buildings. These incen i es o en included ax c edi s and
inancial suppo o p ojec s like insula ion, window and doo eplacemen s, and he
ins alla ion o ene gy-e icien hea ing and cooling sys ems.
5. In 2004, a Law (No. 311/2004, Be lusconi II go e nmen ) es ablished inancial
incen i es o seismic sa e y imp o emen s, known as ‘Sismabonus.’ I aimed o
p omo e he seismic e o i ing o buildings in I aly.
6. In 2006, he Budge Law (No. 296/2006, A icle 1/344-349, P odi II go e nmen )
in oduced a ious iscal measu es, including ax c edi s, o ene gy e iciency
imp o emen s in esiden ial buildings, so-called ‘Ecobonus’. I p o ided an ea ly
amewo k o ene gy- ela ed incen i es, which we e also ex ended o companies as he
ocus shi ed om igh ing ax e asion o p omo ing ene gy-e icien eno a ion o
buildings.
7. In 2007, a Legisla i e Dec ee (No. 146/2007, P odi II go e nmen ) es ablished ules
o ene gy ce i ica ion o buildings and ene gy pe o mance ce i ica es. I was a c ucial
s ep in p omo ing ene gy e iciency in he I alian housing sec o .
8. In 2011, a Legisla i e Dec ee (No. 28/2011, Be lusconi IV go e nmen ) in oduced
measu es o incen i ise ene gy e iciency and enewable ene gy in buildings. I laid he
g oundwo k o some o he policies ela ed o he Supe bonus p og amme.
9. In 2013, a Legisla i e Dec ee (No. 63/2013, Le a go e nmen ) in oduced incen i es
o ene gy e iciency imp o emen s in esiden ial and non- esiden ial buildings. I laid
he ounda ion o seismic sa e y p og ammes in I aly (‘Sismabonus’).
14
Eu opean schemes, and (2) he ans e abili y o ax c edi s. These a e indeed he wo
ea u es in oduced in 2020, du ing he pandemic c isis, which boos ed i s use ela i e o
p e ious I alian schemes and hose in o he coun ies.
7. Es ima es o he impac on GDP g ow h
This sec ion looks a I aly’s b oade economic pe o mance since he pandemic o highligh
he ole o he Supe bonus. I also e iews he exis ing s udies on he impac o he
Supe bonus on GDP g ow h, examines hei assump ions, b ie ly ouches on hei
me hodologies, and c i ically e alua es hei ou comes.
The complexi y o he Supe bonus legisla ion and he many changes in oduced o e ime
make i di icul o es ima e he impac on economic g ow h. In 2023, he bene i was
educed o 90% om 110% (al hough he e we e many excep ions o wo ks al eady
comple ed o ongoing, which de ac o main ained he 110% bene i un il he end o 2023).
A he beginning o 2024, he ax bene i was u he educed o 70% (i will be 65% in
2025). Howe e , he ax bene i o 110% was main ained o he pa o he wo k
comple ed by he end o 2023. The phasing ou o he scheme had o p ese e he acc ued
igh s and a oid dis up ions; hus, legisla ion became e en mo e complex and agmen ed.
ENEA, he Na ional Agency o new echnologies, ene gy and sus ainable economic
de elopmen , s a ed collec ing mon hly da a on he Supe bonus in Augus 2021. Comple e
in o ma ion om o icial minis e ial sou ces is s ill missing (i is p oduced ad hoc o
pa liamen a y hea ings o o icial documen s, bu no egula ly and wi h de ails). ENEA
eco ds he numbe o buildings ha bene i ed om he Supe bonus, he o al in es men
(i.e. including he wo ks no eligible o subsidies), he au ho ised in es men o which a
ax c edi was issued, and inally, he o al amoun o comple ed wo ks and he pe cen age
o comple ion (Table 1).
Table 1. Summa y s a is ics on he Supe bonus
Da e
No.
buildings,
cum.
To al
in es men ,
cum. (€bn)
App o ed
in es men ,
cum. (€bn)
Wo ks
comple ed,
cum. (€bn)
Wo ks
comple ed
(€bn)
Wo ks
comple ed
Δ (€bn)
Es ima ed
GDP
impulse (pp)
% o wo ks
comple ed
3Q21 46,195 7.5 7.5 5.1
4Q21 95,718 16.2 16.2 11.2 6.1 6.1 0.3 69.0
1Q22 139,029 24.2 24.2 17.0 5.8 -0.3 0.2 70.1
2Q22 199,124 35.2 35.2 24.9 7.9 2.1 0.5 70.8
3Q22 307,191 51.2 51.2 35.3 13.6 5.7 0.3 68.9
4Q22 359,440 62.5 62.5 46.6 11.3 -2.3 0.1 74.6
1Q23 403,809 70.0 72.8 58.1 11.4 0.1 -0.4 79.8
2Q23 417,187 81.3 79.9 65.1 7.0 -4.4 -0.4 81.4
3Q23 430,661 89.5 88.2 72.5 7.4 0.4 1.2 82.2
4Q23 461,433 104.2 102.7 91.5 19.0 11.6 1.2 89.1
1Q24 494,406 118.8 117.2 111.6 20.1 1.1 -1.2 95.2
May-24 495,717 119.3 117.7 112.1 0.5 -19.7 -1.9 95.3
Sou ce: ENEA, and au ho 's es ima es.
15
Howe e , hese da a include only he so-called ‘Eco-Supe bonus’ and no o he ypes such
as he ‘Sisma-bonus’, hus ep esen ing only abou 60-65% o he o al. Finally, he building
company has 90 days o egis e he wo ks online and ge app o al o he ax c edi (so-
called ‘asse e a ion’). The e o e, he e is some delay be ween he ime when he ac ual
wo k ook place and he eco ded da a p esen ed in Table 1.
Figu e 1. Supe bonus, o al amoun o he wo ks and % o comple ion
Acco ding o da a up o May 2024, o al in es men eached €119.3 billion, o which
€117.7 billion was allowed as ax c edi s and €112.1 billion (95.3%) o wo ks we e
comple ed. Adding all o he bonuses, he o al amoun app oached €200 billion, i.e. almos
10% o I aly’s GDP (upda ed de ails on he o he schemes a e una ailable). The o al o
buildings ha bene i ed om he Supe bonus eached 495,717 (es ima ed o be abou 4-
5% o he o al esiden ial housing s ock), o which 133,401 we e apa men buildings, o a
o al o €73.6 billion o comple ed wo ks, wi h an a e age in es men o €592,789. Wo ks
comple ed o single- amily buildings amoun ed o 244,952 o €27.4 billion, wi h an
a e age in es men o €117,174. Func ionally independen eal es a e uni s amoun ed o
117,356, o €11.1 billion and an a e age in es men o €98,274. Finally, eigh building
uni s we e classi ied as p i a e ‘cas les’, and hey a ac ed a o al bene i o €1.0 million in
comple ed wo ks (€1.9 million in o al in es men ), wi h €242,212 o o al in es men each.
This la e ca ego y is no meaning ul as a sha e o he o al, bu i can ell a s o y o who
also bene i ed om he policy measu e.
Figu es 2 and 3 show he le el and qua e ly con ibu ion o nominal GDP g ow h by
‘comple ed Supe bonus wo ks’, alue added o cons uc ion ac i i y (supply side in na ional
accoun s, which also includes non-dwellings ac i i y), and in es men in dwellings (demand
side in na ional accoun s, also including non-Supe bonus in es men s). The builde had 90
days o eco d comple ed wo ks ela ed o he Supe bonus online and ge ax c edi s. Thus,
he Supe bonus egis a ion igu es a e en a i ely alloca ed 1/2 o ac i i y in he p e ious
16
qua e and 1/2 o he cu en qua e (alloca ion is p obably also ime- a ying depending
on he deadlines o he legisla ion). The imp ession is ha (1) he s imulus o GDP linked
o he Supe bonus was sizeable (see Figu e 4 showing how igo ous cons uc ion ac i i y
was ela i e o o he majo Eu ozone coun ies, e en compa ed o Spain, which equally
bene i ed om NGEU/RRF spending), and (2) i was subs an ially lowe han wha would
ha e been expec ed gi en he size o public money alloca ed o housing incen i es.
Figu e 3 shows ha , i aken a ace alue, Supe bonus spending would ha e accoun ed o
a subs an ial pa o I aly’s eco ded nominal GDP g ow h since he pandemic c isis. In he
second hal o 2023, i would ha e been a mul iple o nominal GDP g ow h.
The es ima ed GDP impulse in Table 1 is calcula ed as he con ibu ion o he qua e ly
change in GDP, assuming he Supe bonus in es men s would no ha e happened wi hou
he bene i s and ha he e was no c owding ou o o he ypes o in es men ac i i y,
which is a e y s ong and un ealis ic assump ion. In ac , plen y o anecdo al e idence
sugges s ha building companies ha e pos poned many o he wo ks o ake up he
incen i ised ones. On he supply side, he su ge in ac i i y was cons ained by he
a ailabili y o wo ke s and building companies o do he wo k and o he ac o s. Mo eo e ,
he e is no p ecise ma ch be ween ENEA’s eco ding o Supe bonus ‘comple ed wo ks’
and na ional accoun s. As men ioned, igu es unde es ima e he impac as hey ela e only
o he Eco-Supe bonus, i.e. 60-65% o he o al. The e o e, es ima es need o be aken wi h
a pinch o sal .
I we pe cei e 2019 as a ‘neu al yea ’ o eal ‘in es men in dwellings’ (cons uc ion g oss
ixed capi al in es men in na ional accoun s is spli be ween ‘dwellings’ and ‘o he
buildings and s uc u e’) and assume ha wi hou he Supe bonus eal in es men g ow h
in dwellings would ha e been la , as i was in he 4 yea s be o e 2019, hen all he ex a
boos would be a ibu ed o he Supe bonus. In es men in dwellings con ac ed in 2020
amid he pandemic c isis (-7.3% s eal GDP g ow h o -9.0%, con ibu ing by 0.3 o he
eco ded con ac ion in GDP). In 2021, eal g ow h o ‘in es men in dwellings’ was a
whopping 50.1%, con ibu ing 2.0 pe cen age poin s o he eco ded 8.3% ise in eal
GDP. In 2022, he annual inc ease mode a ed o 7.7%, and he con ibu ion o he
eco ded eal GDP g ow h o 4.0% was 0.8 pe cen age poin s. Finally, eal GDP g ow h
slowed o 0.9% in 2023, o which 0.3 pe cen age poin s was due o he ise in in es men in
dwellings, acco ding o na ional accoun s.
Assuming all he g ow h in in es men ac i i y in dwellings om 2019 o 2023 was
exclusi ely ela ed o he Supe bonus, he con ibu ion o eal GDP g ow h would be
subs an ial. In ac , wi hou conside ing he spillo e s o he es o he economy,
in es men in dwellings would ha e con ibu ed by 2.6 pe cen age poin s o he eco ded
3.5% ise in eal GDP be ween 2019 and 2023 (mo ing om 69.3 billion in 2019 o 114.0
billion in 2023, calenda adjus ed).
The abo e es ima es assume he e would ha e been no g ow h in in es men in dwellings
wi hou he Supe bonus (no an un ealis ic assump ion gi en he la pe o mance o he
p e ious yea s). Mo eo e , Supe bonus ac i i y since 2019 is assumed o be en i ely
addi i e, i.e., i would no ha e happened wi hou he incen i es, and he e would ha e
been no c owding ou o o he cons uc ion in es men ac i i ies.
17
Figu e 2. Regis a ions, in es men in dwellings, cons uc ion ac i i y
Figu e 3. Con ibu ion o he Supe bonus o I aly’s qua e ly nominal GDP g ow h
18
Figu e 4. In es men in dwellings, na ional accoun s (da a in eal e ms)
Mo eo e , he cons uc ion sec o has signi ican spillo e s in o he es o he economy
(high mul iplie ), and hus, he impac would ha e been e en bigge . I co ec , his
es ima e would shed a poo ligh on he genuine unde lying pe o mance o he economy
ne o he incen i es. Howe e , e en i i is accu a e, in nominal e ms (a cu en p ices),
he cumula i e inc ease in in es men ac i i y on dwellings om 2019 o 2023 (€62.9
billion) would s ill be subs an ially below he €91.5 billion in comple ed Supe bonus wo ks
a he end o 2023 (which is only abou 60-65% o o al eno a ions, meaning ha he e
was subs an ial c owding ou o o he cons uc ion ac i i ies in dwellings, o ha eco ding
in GDP was no app op ia e o he amoun o aud massi e. In any case, he impac on
GDP was subs an ially smalle han expec ed by he scheme p oponen s and a signi ican
disappoin men ela i e o he public money spen .
Be o e he in oduc ion o he scheme, some es ima es o he po en ial impac on GDP
conside ed spillo e s in o o he sec o s besides cons uc ion. Back in 2015, he Na ional
Associa ion o Builde s published a s udy indica ing ha supplie s o he cons uc ion
indus y came om 31 ou o he 36 sec o s in he economy, i.e. he e we e massi e
spillo e s, con i ming he F ench say quand le bâ imen a, ou a. Mo eo e , he e was
limi ed o se om he impo d ag om he domes ic iscal s imulus as only 4.2% o he
inpu s pu chased we e impo ed. A leas , his was he si ua ion in 2015, al hough i has
p obably no changed much since hen, i.e. he cons uc ion sec o ac i a es posi i e
spillo e s in o he domes ic economy (con a y o o he ax expendi u e schemes such as
ehicle sc appage p og ammes).
In he same s udy, he mul iplie was said o be ex emely high. Each addi ional one billion
spending on cons uc ion gene a es an o e all impac o €3.513 billion on he economy in
19
di ec , indi ec and induced e ec s (a whopping mul iplie o 3.51) and p oduces an
inc ease o 15,555 wo k uni s, o which 9,942 in he cons uc ion sec o and 5,613 in
ela ed sec o s. This s udy was widely quo ed and p oduced he analy ical unde pinning o
poli ical decisions on house eno a ion incen i es. Indeed, he links o he es o he
economy a e undoub edly obus and eliable, as he inpu -ou pu ma ix sugges s, bu he
es ima es o he mul iplie appea subs an ially o e s a ed.
In Di Na do e al. (2022), he di ec e ec is de ined as p oduc ion ac i a ed by he
cons uc ion sec o and in hose sec o s di ec ly connec ed wi h cons uc ion (semi-
inished p oduc s, in e media e p oduc s and se ices) and accoun s o abou hal o he
mul iplie (1.64). Indi ec e ec s a e hose ac i a ed by he sec o s ha ecei e he
men ioned di ec s imulus and, in u n, by o he di ec e ec s un il he mul iplica i e
s imulus is exhaus ed (0.66). Finally, he induced e ec is he p oduc ion ac i a ed by inal
consump ion gene a ed by income om wo k paid in p oducing he goods and se ices o
he di ec and indi ec e ec , i.e. he mul iplie ela ed o household spending (1.22).
A epo published in Oc obe 2021 and hen upda ed in mid-2022 by he Na ional
Associa ion o Enginee s ound a simila ou come, wi h oughly he same mul iplie s.
Mo eo e , a s udy p esen ed on 13 July 2022 and p oduced by ANCE, Emilia, and
Nomisma un eiled signi ican ene gy sa ings (abou €500 annually o each ins alla ion)
and subs an ial e u ns in e ms o GDP g ow h om he Supe bonus (es ima ed a €124
billion, i.e. 7.5% o GDP) and employmen (634k addi ional employed). These es ima es
need o be aken wi h g ea cau ion. The key wo d is ‘addi ional’, as in es men s ha would
ha e happened anyway would no p oduce any ex a economic g ow h. Incen i es would
ansla e in o a simple inancial ans e om he public o he p i a e sec o , wi h no
addi ional ac i i y gene a ed. Mo eo e , i is s iking ha none o hese assessmen s udies
conside ed he public inancing cos o he subsidy o he ela ed cos o eining back he
ne inc ease in public deb .
Acco ding o a simila s udy p omo ed by he Na ional Associa ions o Builde s, he
sizeable spillo e s o he cons uc ion sec o should gua an ee ha 47% o he g oss cos
o ax c edi s is eco e ed ia highe ax e enues, VAT and social con ibu ions. I is
calcula ed only on he pa o ac i i y ha is conside ed o be added o he baseline
cou esy o he Supe bonus, i.e. he ex a ac i i y ha would no ha e happened wi hou
he ax bene i . O he s udies poin o a s ill sizeable 42%. Acco ding o Di Na do e al.
(2022), he Minis y o Economy and Finance sys ema ically unde es ima ed he size o
spillo e s on ax e enues in he ‘Relazione ecnica’ ( he echnical assessmen
accompanying he Dec ee Law o Law), which was based on a much mo e cau ious
app oach indica ing only 25% addi ionali y o he expendi u e igge ed by bonuses.
To summa ise, a ailable s udies only ocus on sho - e m mul iplie s. They come p ima ily
om lobbies, builde s’ associa ions, o hink ank inances by builde s (Nomisma). They
dis ega d any assessmen o he economic cos s o e u ning public inances o hei ini ial
posi ion. In he case o he Minis y o Economy and Finance, hese e ec s a e aken ca e
o in he con ex o he Budge p ocess, bu he assessmen s igno e he inancing side. No
do hey conside long- e m supply-side e ec s, lea ing aside a posi i e e ec ela ed o
ene gy-sa ing echnologies. Figu e 5 shows ha he cons uc ion sec o is he second leas
p oduc i e sec o in he economy, aising he issue o whe he subsidising a low-
p oduc i i y indus y makes sense o he economy’s long- e m heal h.
20
Figu e 5. I aly’s labou p oduc i i y by sec o
8. Es ima es o he impac on public accoun s
Pas es ima es o he impac on public inances o ax schemes o building eno a ions
elied on a ious assump ions, including he scale o he p og amme, he ex en o i s
adop ion, and he speci ic iscal mechanisms in place. In any ax incen i e scheme ha uses
ax c edi s, he e is a budge a y cos as he go e nmen o egoes ax e enue equal o he
alue o he c edi s claimed by axpaye s. Mo eo e , p og amme adminis a ion incu s
cos s o he go e nmen , including pe sonnel, echnology, and esou ces, and he
e iciency and cos o p og amme adminis a o s could a ec he ne iscal impac .
Bu he e a e also bene i s. The Supe bonus p og amme was designed o s imula e
economic ac i i y in he cons uc ion and eno a ion sec o s wi h signi ican spillo e s o
he es o he economy. Inc eased cons uc ion and eno a ion p ojec s lead o job
c ea ion, which esul s in inc eased ax e enue om income and co po a e axes. Thus,
he p og amme could posi i ely impac public inances by boos ing economic g ow h.
Ene gy e iciency upg ades p omo ed by he Supe bonus can lead o long- e m sa ings in
ene gy consump ion, he eby a ou ing income and, e en ually, ax e enue. These e ec s
could mi iga e he ini ial iscal cos o e ime. As discussed in he p e ious sec ion, hese
e ec s a e challenging o es ima e and e y sensi i e o he unde lying assump ions.
In addi ion, he pa o he scheme ocused on seismic sa e y imp o emen s could help
educe he long- e m iscal bu den associa ed wi h disas e eco e y and econs uc ion
a e ea hquakes. By enhancing he esilience o buildings, he go e nmen may ul ima ely
sa e on disas e esponse and eco e y cos s. As p ope y alues inc ease due o
eno a ions, local p ope y axes (IMU and TASI) and ansac ion axes may also inc ease,
p o iding addi ional e enue o local municipali ies and he go e nmen .
21
Finally, a heal hie and sa e housing s ock can lead o imp o ed li ing condi ions, which
can ha e posi i e social and economic consequences, including educed heal hca e cos s
and inc eased p oduc i i y. These long- e m impac s may indi ec ly bene i public inances
as well. Howe e , he e ec s a e e y unce ain.
Mo eo e , he Supe bonus 110% p og amme, like many iscal incen i es and ax c edi
p og ammes, can in oduce ce ain accoun ing dis o ions o public accoun s. These
dis o ions ypically e e o disc epancies o misalignmen s be ween he economic e ec s
and how hey a e eco ded in public accoun s and p esen ed in public inance epo s.
The e is also a ime misma ch be ween cos s and bene i s.
In pa icula , he o iginal bonus p og amme (be o e ans e abili y) allowed homeowne s o
claim ax c edi s o eligible expenses ela ed o eno a ions, p oducing a educ ion in
go e nmen e enue because hey educed he axes homeowne s owe. Howe e , he
impac on go e nmen inances was no immedia ely ecognised because he ax c edi s
we e claimed o e ime as homeowne s iled hei ax e u ns. This c ea ed a iming
misma ch in iscal accoun s. Go e nmen accoun s e lec ed he ull ex en o he e enue
impac when he p og amme was implemen ed, shi ing he e ec on he de ici o u u e
yea s. The p og amme g ew bigge o e he yea s, and he pe iod in which expenses could
be eco e ed was sho ened.
The iming o ax c edi s unde he Supe bonus p og amme could in luence go e nmen
cash lows. The go e nmen migh ace cash low challenges due o he delayed ecogni ion
o educed ax e enue. These accoun ing and cash low dis o ions a e no unique o he
Supe bonus p og amme bu a e common issues associa ed wi h ax c edi s and incen i e
p og ammes in gene al. Dis o ions could also a y in signi icance depending on he scale
and du a ion o he p og amme.
Acco ding o I aly’s annual epo on ax expendi u es (Commission o Tax Expendi u e,
2023), he numbe o ax expendi u es has con inued o inc ease o e he yea s, eaching
739 in 2023, including local ax expendi u es, o a o al amoun o €125.6 billion, i.e. 6.1%
o 2023 GDP. Tax expendi u es we e sligh ly highe in 2022 when hey eached a eco d
high in he numbe and amoun in ol ed ela i e o o he OECD coun ies.
As indica ed abo e, in May 2020, despe a e imes called o despe a e measu es. The
go e nmen (1) in oduced he Supe bonus 110%, (2) he ax c edi became ans e able,
(3) he amo isa ion pe iod was sho ened o ou yea s (wi h change in oduced la e on),
and (4) no limi was se on he use o he bene i (which is unusual o subsidy schemes).
The ake-up o he p og amme sky ocke ed. The ini ial es ima e was o a o al ake-up o
only €36.6 billion o he Supe bonus, which would ha e been added o he €5.9 billion
ela ed o he Façade bonus and he €29.9 billion o all o he bonuses, o a o al o €72.3
billion. Bu hen i almos eached €200 billion, acco ding o he mos ecen es ima es, i.e.
almos h ee imes as much. In cash e ms, capi al ans e s o households (mos ly ela ed
o he Supe bonus) a e p ojec ed o each 1.8% o GDP in 2024 and 2025, e sus 1.0% in
2023, and hen decline o 1.1% in 2027. Acco ding o he Bank o I aly, hal o he wo ks
ha bene i ed om ax incen i es we e ‘addi i e’, i.e. hey would no ha e happened
wi hou he ax incen i es. S ill, e en conside ing inc eased axes and social secu i y
con ibu ions paid, he nega i e impac on public accoun s emains “huge” (Bank o I aly).
22
On 14 Feb ua y, in a pa liamen a y hea ing be o e he Finance Commission o he Sena e2,
he Eu os a ’s ep esen a i e s a ed ha ax c edi s linked o he so-called Supe bonus
would be conside ed de ici . He said he e had been a discussion be ween Eu os a , Is a
and o he s a is ical o ices on his subjec since 2020. The decision was collegial in
commi ees whe e ep esen a i es om s a is ical o ices and hose om cen al banks and
inance minis ies pa icipa e. Reaching a decision could ake yea s, bu i jus so happened
ha he egula 4-yea e ision was scheduled o Feb ua y 2023. On 14 Feb ua y 2023,
Eu os a published he e ised S a is ical Manual3 ( he nex one is planned o 2027),
including he s a is ical ea men o he new ax c edi s, i.e. when he ax c edi is
conside ed ‘payable’ o ‘no payable’ unde he new ulebook. Unde ‘payable’, he
s a is ical e en is eco ded when he ax c edi is ecognised ins ead o when axes a e
o se . This changes he iming o he eco ding bu no he o e all amoun . How can a ax
c edi be judged ‘payable’? I i mee s he ollowing c i e ia (which aim o assess he
p obabili y he ax c edi is e ec i ely used):
1. I is ans e able (and he Supe bonus was).
2. I can be used o o se a ious ax liabili ies (idem).
3. I can be de e ed o se e al yea s (idem).
Eu os a ’s ep esen a i e said i would no impac deb as a ax c edi has no ‘immedia e’
e ec on deb , bu when he cash e ec is ea ned. The de ici is eco ded on an acc ual
basis, while he deb is on a cash basis. Thus, when he ax c edi ansla es in o educed
cash e enues, i will also impac he deb . Bu his was al eady included in o icial
p ojec ions and was no due o change. Suppose he go e nmen had done no hing,
ollowing he posi ion aken by Eu os a , and he e ec on he de ici would ha e been
en i ely on loaded. A any a e, his caused a massi e de e io a ion o he Maas ich -
de ini ion ne bo owing equi emen in 2020-2023, wi h he a io o GDP eaching 7.2%
in 2023 ( hen e ised up o 7.4%).
The pas ew yea s ha e been e y u bulen o he legisla ion on he Supe bonus.
T ans e ing he ax c edi o he banks had become di icul in 2022, bu his did no slow
he ac i i y. Banks had al eady illed all he a ailable possibili ies o o se hei ax liabili ies
wi h pu chased ax c edi s. Thus, hey s opped accep ing hem, p oducing liquidi y
p oblems o cons uc ion companies long be o e ecen e en s. Fu he mo e, banks
s a ed o deny he possibili y o pu chasing ax c edi s on ea s o aud and egula o y
unce ain y4.
Finance Minis e Gio ge i hoped ha he Feb ua y 2023 dec ee’s cla i y and ce ain y on
he legal esponsibili y o he ans e ee o c edi s could e-ac i a e he discoun window
wi h inancial ins i u ions and a oid liquidi y p oblems o companies, which appea ed o
be a signi ican issue. This pa ly happened, bu many concessions we e allowed o p e en
a liquidi y c unch o building companies, and hus, ans e abili y emained o mos o he
schemes app o ed in 2023, esul ing in a ballooning Maas ich -de ini ion acc ual de ici in
2023.
2 See he eco ding he e (in I alian): h ps://web .sena o.i /4621? ideo_e en o=241855
3 h ps://ec.eu opa.eu/eu os a /web/p oduc s-manuals-and-guidelines/w/KS-GQ-23-005
4 See p ess con e ence (in I alian): h ps://www.go e no.i /i /media/con e enza-s ampa-al- e mine-del-consiglio-dei-minis i-n-
21/21832
23
The ake-up o he Supe bonus has been sys ema ically unde es ima ed. The cash ne
bo owing and deb cos s a e backloaded, i.e. sp ead o e a numbe o yea s when ax
c edi s o se ax paymen s. Ye , he ax bene i s o he economic impac a e almos
immedia e (VAT) o wi h a maximum o one-yea delay (pe sonal and company axes).
This could be a posi i e ea u e o coun e cyclical policies. Howe e , he cos will ce ainly
come, i.e. he e is no way ha he policy ini ia i e could be sel - inancing. Absen e ec s on
he supply side (ene gy sa ings, economies o scale, e c.), he demand e ec ades once
incen i es a e wi hd awn, while he highe deb and i s cos o inancing emain.
Figu e 6. The en a i e acc ual and cash impac on public accoun s
On 22 Sep embe 2023, ISTAT, he I alian s a is ical o ice, e ised he cos o he wo
incen i es o 2022 upwa ds om 2.6% o 2.8% o GDP o 2022. In he same mon h, he
new Upda e o he Documen o Economy and Finance led o a u he upwa d e ision o
ax c edi s. The es ima e o he Supe bonus ake-up was e ised o €61.2 billion, he
Façade bonus o €19.0 billion and all o he bonuses emained a €29.9 billion, o a o al o
€110.1 billion. The Documen o Economy and Finance eleased in Ap il 2024 u he
e ised es ima es upwa ds. Es ima es in Figu e 6 ake s ock o a ailable in o ma ion and
p ojec he acc ual and cash impac o each yea .
Acco ding o ENEA da a5, a he end o Decembe 2023, he o al o house eno a ion
in es men s admi ed o ecei e a ax c edi amoun ed o €102.7 billion, o which
comple ed wo ks (i.e. admi ed o ecei ing 110% ax c edi ) ep esen ed € 91.1 billion. The
numbe o in e en ions (asse e a ions) was 641,433, wi h 88.7% o wo ks comple ed and
he emaining pa o be comple ed. Wo ks pe o med on condominiums we e he ones o
which an ex ension o ans e abili y was ine i able o a oid massi e dys unc ionali ies and
5 Na ional Agency o new echnologies, ene gy and sus ainable economic de elopmen .
