Ch is o akis, Manolis; Gkouzos, And eas; Gaki, Eleni
A icle
Demog aphic change and egional specialisa ion: The case
o G eek NUTS II egions
Economies
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ch is o akis, Manolis; Gkouzos, And eas; Gaki, Eleni (2024) : Demog aphic
change and egional specialisa ion: The case o G eek NUTS II egions, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099,
MDPI, Basel, Vol. 12, Iss. 11, pp. 1-22,
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Ci a ion: Ch is o akis, Manolis,
And eas Gkouzos, and Eleni Gaki.
2024. Demog aphic Change and
Regional Specialisa ion: The Case o
G eek NUTS II Regions. Economies 12:
284. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/
economies12110284
Academic Edi o :
Aleksande Panasiuk
Recei ed: 3 Augus 2024
Re ised: 11 Oc obe 2024
Accep ed: 16 Oc obe 2024
Published: 24 Oc obe 2024
Copy igh : © 2024 by he au ho s.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land.
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4.0/).
economies
A icle
Demog aphic Change and Regional Specialisa ion: The Case o
G eek NUTS II Regions
Manolis Ch is o akis 1, And eas Gkouzos 2,* and Eleni Gaki 1
1Depa men o Business Adminis a ion, School o Business, Uni e si y o he Aegean, 82100 Chios, G eece;
[email p o ec ed] (M.C.); [email p o ec ed] (E.G.)
2Depa men o Regional and Economic De elopmen , School o Applied Economics and Social Sciences,
Ag icul u al Uni e si y o A hens, Nea Poli, 33100 Am issa, G eece
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : This pape in es iga es he impac o demog aphic changes on egional specialisa ion ac oss
G eek NUTS2 egions om 2001 o 2021. I explo es he ela ionship be ween age-speci ic a ia ions
in he economically ac i e popula ion and g oss alue added (GVA) ac oss di e en economic sec o s.
Using demog aphic and GVA da a alongside spa ial analysis echniques such as spa ial eg ession
models, median Local Mo an’s I, and loca ion quo ien , he s udy iden i ies spa ial au oco ela ion
pa e ns. Findings e eal s ong co ela ions be ween he economically ac i e popula ion and GVA,
highligh ing demog aphic ac o s’ c ucial ole in egional economic pe o mance. O e he pe iod
2001 o 2021, he 15–24 and 25–34 age g oups gene ally expe ienced declining g ow h a es in
o al, male, and emale economically ac i e popula ions, while he 45–54 and 55–64 age g oups
saw inc eases. Regions adjacen o hose wi h highe economically ac i e popula ions showed
high–high clus e ing. Especially, A iki and Ken iki Makedonia, he wo me opoli an egions o
G eece, in luence neighbou ing egions h ough economic spillo e e ec s, os e ing economic sec o
clus e ing and emphasising egional specialisa ion. These indings highligh he complex in e play
be ween demog aphic shi s and egional economic ou comes, no ing spa ial dispa i ies and he
need o a ge ed policy in e en ions. The s udy p o ides empi ical e idence demons a ing how
demog aphic changes in luence egional economic de elopmen ac oss di e en egions.
Keywo ds: G eek NUTS2 egions; economically ac i e popula ion; g oss alue added; local Mo an’s
I; loca ion quo ien
1. In oduc ion
Demog aphic change a ec s egional specialisa ion by al e ing labou and consume
ma ke s. Al e na i ely, egional specialisa ion in luences demog aphic pa e ns, a ac ing
speci ic popula ions ha u he enhance local s eng hs and economic g ow h. Se e al
esea che s ha e add essed di e en aspec s o demog aphic change in ecen yea s. Gómez
and de Cos Pablo (2008) demons a ed ha popula ion ageing posi i ely co ela ed wi h
economic pe o mance ac oss coun ies. They ound ha an op imal a io o p ime-age
wo ke s ela i e o younge wo ke s maximised GDP pe capi a, highligh ing demog aphic
e ec s on economic p oduc i i y. Ku ek (2011) examined ageing pa e ns in pos -socialis
Poland up o 2030, e ealing spa ially a ied dis ibu ions o elde ly popula ions. The
s udy linked demog aphic ageing wi h socie al ansi ions, highligh ing ulne able e-
gions amids poli ical and economic changes. Sili e s o s e al. (2011) ound ha ageing
signi ican ly a ec ed employmen sha es ac oss a ious sec o s, wi h an inc ease in he
elde ly popula ion nega i ely impac ing ag icul u e, manu ac u ing, cons uc ion, and
mining while bene i ing communi y se ices and he inancial sec o . F anklin (2012) anal-
ysed US popula ion changes om 2000 o 2010, inding ha while he o e all popula ion
g ew, he composi ion a ied by age and ace/e hnici y. Shi -sha e analysis iden i ied
Economies 2024,12, 284. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies12110284 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/economies
Economies 2024,12, 284 2 o 22
egions whe e g ow h s emmed om demog aphic ad an ages in speci ic age coho s o
acial/e hnic g oups. Göbel and Zwick (2012) examined he impac o an ageing wo k-
o ce on p oduc i i y ac oss di e en sec o s using linked employe -employee panel da a,
inding no signi ican di e ences in age-p oduc i i y p o iles be ween manu ac u ing
and se ices, despi e a ying sec o cha ac e is ics. Mahlbe g e al. (2013) examined he
ela ionship be ween age s uc u e and labou p oduc i i y in Aus ia using ma ched
employe –employee da a. They ound signi ican a ia ions in he age-p oduc i i y pa e n
ac oss di e en egions and sec o s, wi h sec o al di e ences being he p ima y sou ce o
he e ogenei y. Shiode e al. (2014) u ilised bo h ageing popula ion a io and densi y o
analyse ageing communi ies in Aichi P e ec u e, Japan, indica ing ha his dual app oach
e ec i ely iden i ied di e se ageing communi y ypes ac oss u ban and u al se ings. Lin
e al. (2015) ound ha in Taiwan om 1998 o 2006, egional household income inequali y
was in luenced by ageing demog aphics, speci ically due o shi s om mul igene a ional
o elde ly households wi hou addi ional income. They iden i ied spa ial clus e ing and
obse ed bo h con e gence and di e gence dynamics, emphasising he need o spa ially
awa e policy conside a ions. Cai and S oyano (2016) ound ha demog aphic di e ences
signi ican ly in luenced in e na ional ade dynamics, as popula ion ageing educed he
supply o age-dependen skills, leading younge labou o ce coun ies o excel in indus ies
elying on younge wo ke s while olde popula ions specialised in age-app ecia ing skills,
diminishing hei compa a i e ad an age. Cuad ado-Rou a e al. (2016) emphasised ha
Medi e anean egions wi h high unemploymen and economic decline du ing he c isis
exhibi ed di e en economic dynamics. Regions unde going demog aphic ansi ions, like
ageing popula ions, expe ienced signi ican impac s on hei economic specialisa ion and
ou pu . Cua esma e al. (2016) ound ha demog aphic ends, pa icula ly ageing, would
slow income con e gence ac oss Eu ope, concluding ha policies aimed solely a imp o -
ing labou o ce pa icipa ion we e insu icien o coun e ac he nega i e e ec s o ageing.
Pe e son (2017) examined 200 yea s o da a o explo e he complex ela ionship be ween
popula ion g ow h, pe capi a ou pu , and o e all economic g ow h. Low popula ion
g ow h in weal hy na ions and high g ow h in poo e na ions exace ba ed global economic
inequali y, despi e po en ial bene i s o in e na ional mig a ion. Danko and Hanink (2018)
used demog aphic shi -sha e analysis o compa e acial and e hnic popula ion changes in
sh inking (Bu alo, Cle eland, De oi , Pi sbu gh, S . Louis) and g owing (A lan a, Den e ,
Phoenix, San Diego, Sea le) US ci ies om 1990 o 2010. They ound g ow h among Mexi-
can, Pue o Rican, Asian, and o eign-bo n popula ions despi e declines in Whi e and Black
popula ions in sh inking ci ies. Seok e al. (2018) ound ha ageing nega i ely impac ed
a m e iciency in Ko ea, showing con inuous declines a he han he expec ed in e ed-U
ela ionship. Addi ionally, income subsidies had a de imen al e ec on e iciency, sug-
ges ing he need o policy adjus men s o encou age you h pa icipa ion in ag icul u e.
Wessel e al. (2018) ound ha in Oslo be ween 2001 and 2011, local mobili y among e hnic
g oups inc eased own-g oup exposu e and sepa a ion om he No dic majo i y, while
in e na ional mig a ion p omo ed in eg a ion be ween No dic and non-No dic esiden s.
Cheng e al. (2019) ound ha om 2000 o 2010, u al a eas in China expe ienced mo e
apid popula ion ageing compa ed o u ban a eas. Spa ial analysis iden i ied expanding
clus e s o ageing popula ions om coas al o inland egions, highligh ing dispa i ies in
heal h, economic s a us, and ageing challenges a he p e ec u al le el. Dolls e al. (2019)
ound ha demog aphic changes likely inc eased income inequali y in he EU-27 by 2030,
bu wage adjus men s coun e ac ed his end. EU ax-bene i sys ems la gely abso bed
he p ojec ed ise in ma ke income inequali y. Liu e al. (2019) in es iga ed he impac o
an ageing ag icul u al labou o ce on echnical e iciency in sou hwes e n China. They
ound a nega i e ela ionship be ween ageing and echnical e iciency, highligh ing he
need o policy measu es o add ess hese challenges. Feng e al. (2020) ound ha China’s
ageing popula ion has accele a ed as e han in de eloped and BRICS coun ies, wi h
signi ican egional and u ban– u al dispa i ies. Fac o s like u banisa ion and egional
GDP deepened he ageing gap, bu popula ion densi y had no signi ican impac . Kim
Economies 2024,12, 284 3 o 22
e al. (2020) ound ha Daegu’s ageing egions expanded apidly om he ci y cen e
be ween 2009 and 2018. Neighbou hood condi ions in hese a eas we e poo , especially
ega dingaccessibili y and sa e y, wi h signi ican di e ences be ween u ban and subu ban
en i onmen s. OECD (2020) e ealed ha he G eek economy exhibi ed pe sis en egional
imbalances, wi h A iki, pa icula ly he capi al o A hens, domina ing in GDP pe capi a
and popula ion. This concen a ion led o signi ican g ow h bu also caused en i onmen al
and social issues. Okada (2020) demons a ed ha demog aphic changes and human capi al
accumula ion in luenced R&D ac i i y di e en ly ac oss s eady s a es: high human capi al
co ela ed wi h high R&D ac i i y, low e ili y, and high old-age su i al. Imp o ed public
heal h policies had an in e ed U-shaped e ec on economic g ow h a es a s eady s a es,
indica ing po en ial o go e nmen in e en ion o mi iga e po e y aps. Papape ou
and Tsalapo a (2020) ound ha popula ion ageing nega i ely impac ed eal GDP g ow h
and educed in la ion in 23 OECD coun ies. They ecommended labou ma ke policies,
pension e o ms, and in es men s in human capi al o mi iga e hese ad e se e ec s. Han
and Chung (2021) ound ha ageing and unde employmen nega i ely a ec ed household
income in Sou h Ko ea, wi h a mo e p onounced impac in he ag icul u al sec o compa ed
o non-ag icul u al households. Policy simula ions indica ed ha a ge ed go e nmen
in e en ions could help educe income dispa i y be ween hese sec o s. Hi ono (2021)
demons a ed ha he impac o inc eased li e expec ancy on income g ow h pe capi a
depended on he p oduc i i y o he non-educa ion and educa ion sec o s, e ealing a
po en ial non-linea ela ionship be ween ageing and economic g ow h. Iwasaki (2021)
analysed popula ion changes be ween cen al ci y densely inhabi ed dis ic s (DIDs) and
su ounding DIDs in Japan om 1960 o 2015. The s udy e ealed ha popula ion decline in
cen al ci y DIDs was in luenced by ac o s such as you h ou mig a ion, business eloca ion,
and social decline due o esiden ial shi s o a eas ou side cen al ci y DIDs. Kashni sky
e al. (2021) ound ha om 2003 o 2013, con a y o expec a ions, age s uc u es did
no di e ge be ween u ban and u al NUTS2 egions o he EU-27. Ins ead, di e gence
occu ed wi hin each g oup o egions, indica ing complex demog aphic dynamics. Lee
and Shin (2021) in es iga ed how popula ion ageing impac s pe capi a ou pu g ow h in
35 OECD coun ies h ough six channels. They con i med ha ageing nega i ely a ec s
GDP g ow h, p ima ily h ough educed o al ac o p oduc i i y (TFP), which hey ound
o ha e las ing e ec s on economic g ow h. Chen e al. (2022) examined popula ion ageing
in u al China om 2000 o 2020, inding inc eased ageing wi h spa ial he e ogenei y. The
s udy iden i ied key ac o s, such as popula ion s uc u e and e ili y a es, in luencing
ageing pa e ns and emphasised he need o collabo a ion o add ess hese challenges.
DiPasquale (2022) unde sco ed he impo ance o unde s anding he in e play be ween
demog aphic ac o s and economic ou comes, emphasising ha demog aphic shi s had
p o ound e ec s on economic pe o mance. Xu e al. (2022) disco e ed ha China’s ageing
indus y de eloped une enly, wi h egional dispa i ies na owing o e ime. Economic
dispa i ies inc eased, pa icula ly be ween eas e n and no heas e n egions. Coo dina ed
de elopmen be ween he ageing indus y and egional economy posi i ely impac ed
neighbou ing egions. Bode e al. (2023) e ealed ha ageing nega i ely impac ed egional
p oduc i i y g ow h in Ge many, wi h wo k o ce ageing a ec ing u ban a eas mo e due
o i s de imen al e ec s on inno a ion. Addi ionally, a highe sha e o e i ees educed
p oduc i i y in egions wi h small household se ices sec o s. Bo da e al. (2023) iden i ied
ha he ageing ag icul u al popula ion posed a global challenge, wi h younge gene a ions
eluc an o ake o e a ms due o low income, poo wo king condi ions, limi ed land
access, and adminis a i e bu dens. Chung and Hean (2023) ound ha in he Uni ed
S a es, egional popula ion ageing posi i ely impac ed employmen g ow h and en le els,
wi h no signi ican e ec on local wages. These esul s sugges ha an ageingpopula ion
may enhance local p oduc ion and consump ion ameni ies, con adic ing expec a ions o
nega i e economic impac s. Jayawa dhana e al. (2023) explo ed he causal ela ionship
be ween he Pe Capi a G oss Domes ic P oduc g ow h a e and he elde ly popula ion
in 15 Eu opean coun ies, inding a ied causali y pa e ns and a his o ical shi in he
Economies 2024,12, 284 4 o 22
impac be ween he wo a iables. Malmbe g e al. (2023) demons a ed ha demog aphic
ansi ions and changes in popula ion age s uc u e ha e signi ican ly in luenced global
economic de elopmen since 1950, wi h egional and u ban shi s in Wes e n Eu ope and
No h Ame ica highligh ing he o e looked impac o ageing on economic geog aphy.
Ma iscal-de-Gan e e al. (2023) ound ha inc eased emale pa icipa ion esul ed in job
pola isa ion, pa icula ly h ough low-paid jobs. Educa ional e u ns declined mo e o
women, while occupa ional p o iles o young and old wo ke s changed simila ly, wi h
pe sis en gende -based di e ences. Shen e al. (2023) epo ed a posi i e ela ionship
be ween u al popula ion ageing and ag icul u al labou p oduc i i y in China. Ageing
s imula ed ag icul u al de elopmen by p omo ing s uc u al adjus men s and mode nisa-
ion, hough his posi i e e ec weakened as ageing deepened u he . Zhang e al. (2023)
ound ha he ageing u al labou o ce in China weakened ag icul u al economic esilience.
As u al labou ageing inc eased, ag icul u al esilience declined, mainly due o educed
human capi al and limi a ions in scale managemen and echnological p og ess, especially
in less-de eloped egions. San os (2024) examined GDP ends and ageing dynamics in Po -
ugal om 2011 o 2021, e ealing ha egions wi h a highe GDP ended o ha e younge
popula ions, while lowe GDP egions had olde popula ions. The s udy unde sco ed he
need o ailo ed policies add essing demog aphic and economic dispa i ies ac oss egions.
Song e al. (2024) ound ha he ageing u al popula ion nega i ely a ec ed ag icul u al
g een o al ac o p oduc i i y in China. This impac was pa icula ly signi ican in wes e n
egions, wi h ageing inhibi ing labou p oduc i i y, inno a ion, and a mland ans e ,
especially unde s ic e en i onmen al egula ions. Zhang e al. (2024) disco e ed ha
popula ion ageing signi ican ly in luenced China’s se ice indus y, exhibi ing an “in e ed
U” e ec . The s udy e ealed egional and indus y he e ogenei y, wi h no able impac s
in de eloped egions and medical indus ies, and iden i ied a h eshold beyond which
ageing’s posi i e e ec s diminish.
This pape in oduces se e al no el con ibu ions in he con ex o he exis ing li -
e a u e on demog aphic changes and egional economic specialisa ion. Unlike p e ious
s udies ha ha e o en ocused on a single aspec o demog aphic change, such as ageing o
mig a ion, his pape comp ehensi ely examines he economically ac i e popula ion ac oss
a ious age g oups and gende s, p o iding a nuanced unde s anding o demog aphic shi s
in G eece o e wo decades. By employing ad anced spa ial analysis echniques, including
Spa ial Reg ession Models, Local Mo an’s I, and Loca ion Quo ien , he pape uniquely
iden i ies he spa ial clus e ing and egional specialisa ion e ec s o demog aphic changes
on economic pe o mance. Addi ionally, he inclusion o g oss alue added (GVA) ac oss
11 dis inc economic b anches o e s a mo e de ailed explo a ion o how demog aphic
dynamics in luence speci ic sec o s di e en ly, e ealing in ica e ela ionships be ween
demog aphic pa e ns and economic ou comes a he egional le el. This mul i- ace ed
app oach, pa icula ly wi hin he G eek con ex , whe e egional dispa i ies a e p onounced,
se s his pape apa om p io esea ch, o e ing ac ionable insigh s o policymake s.
2. Me hodology
The p esen pape employs demog aphic da a o he o al, male, and emale eco-
nomically ac i e popula ions o G eek NUTS2 egions, examining di e en age g oups,
including 15 o 24 yea s, 25 o 34 yea s, 35 o 44 yea s, 45 o 54 yea s, 55 o 64 yea s,
and 65 yea s o o e (Eu os a 2024a). Mo eo e , i u ilises g oss alue added om 11
economic b anches, acco ding o Eu os a classi ica ion, which a e:“Ag icul u e, o es y
and ishing”, “Ene gy”, “Manu ac u ing”, “Cons uc ion”, “Wholesale and e ail ade,
anspo , accommoda ion and ood se ice ac i i ies”, “In o ma ion and communica ion”,
“Financial and insu ance ac i i ies”, “Real es a e ac i i ies”, “P o essional, scien i ic and
echnical ac i i ies, adminis a i e and suppo se ice ac i i ies”, “Public adminis a ion,
de ence, educa ion, human heal h and social wo k ac i i ies”, “A s, en e ainmen and
ec ea ion; o he se ice ac i i ies; ac i i ies o household and ex a- e i o ial o ganisa ions
Economies 2024,12, 284 5 o 22
and bodies” o 2021 and 2001 a G eek NUTS2 egional le el (Eu os a 2024b). To sum up,
he analysis conce ns he 13 G eek NUTS2 egions, as illus a ed in he Figu e 1.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 o 24
anspo , accommoda ion and ood se ice ac i i ies”, “In o ma ion and communica-
ion”, “Financial and insu ance ac i i ies”, “Real es a e ac i i ies”, “P o essional, scien-
i ic and echnical ac i i ies, adminis a i e and suppo se ice ac i i ies”, “Public ad-
minis a ion, de ence, educa ion, human heal h and social wo k ac i i ies”, “A s, en e -
ainmen and ec ea ion; o he se ice ac i i ies; ac i i ies o household and ex-
a- e i o ial o ganisa ions and bodies” o 2021 and 2001 a G eek NUTS2 egional le el
(Eu os a 2024b). To sum up, he analysis conce ns he 13 G eek NUTS2 egions, as illus-
a ed in he Figu e 1.
Figu e 1. G eek NUTS2 egions.
Rega ding he me hodology, spa ial eg ession models, Local Mo an’s I me hod and
Loca ion Quo ien a e used. Based on eg ession analysis, he Spa ial Lag and Spa ial
E o models (Anselin 1988) a e implemen ed in he analysis.
The Spa ial Lag Model is speci ied as ollows:
GVA=ρWGVAβEAPε (1)
• GVA: G oss Value Added in he 13 G eek NUTS2 egions.
• EAP: Economically Ac i e Popula ion in he 13 G eek NUTS2 egions.
• ρ: Spa ial au o eg essi e coe icien , cap u ing he in luence o neighbou ing e-
gions’GVA on a gi en egion’s GVA.
• WGVA: Spa ially lagged GVA, whe e W is a spa ial weigh s ma ix de ining he ela-
ionships be ween egions.
• β: Coe icien o he EAP a iable.
• ε: E o e m.
The Spa ial E o Model is speci ied as ollows:
GVA=βEAPu (2)
u=
λ
Wuε (3)
• GVA: G oss Value Added in he 13 G eek NUTS2 egions.
Figu e 1. G eek NUTS2 egions.
Rega ding he me hodology, spa ial eg ession models, Local Mo an’s I me hod and
Loca ion Quo ien a e used. Based on eg ession analysis, he Spa ial Lag and Spa ial E o
models (Anselin 1988) a e implemen ed in he analysis.
The Spa ial Lag Model is speci ied as ollows:
GVA =ρWGVA +βEAP +ε(1)
•GVA: G oss Value Added in he 13 G eek NUTS2 egions.
•EAP: Economically Ac i e Popula ion in he 13 G eek NUTS2 egions.
•ρ
: Spa ial au o eg essi e coe icien , cap u ing he in luence o neighbou ing e-
gions’ GVA on a gi en egion’s GVA.
•WGVA
: Spa ially lagged
GVA
, whe e
W
is a spa ial weigh s ma ix de ining he
ela ionships be ween egions.
•β: Coe icien o he EAP a iable.
•ε: E o e m.
The Spa ial E o Model is speci ied as ollows:
GVA =βEAP +u (2)
u=λWu +ε(3)
•GVA: G oss Value Added in he 13 G eek NUTS2 egions.
•EAP: Economically Ac i e Popula ion in he 13 G eek NUTS2 egions.
•β: Coe icien o he EAP a iable.
•u: Spa ially au oco ela ed e o e m.
•λ: Spa ial au oco ela ion coe icien , cap u ing he spa ial dependence in he e o s.
•Wu: Spa ially lagged e o e m.
•ε: No mally dis ibu ed e o e m.
Economies 2024,12, 284 6 o 22
In he Local Mo an’s I me hod, each obse a ion is assigned a s a is ic ha can be
mapped o e eal spa ial pa e ns. Below is he equa ion o adi ional Local Mo an’s I
(Anselin 1995):
Ii=(xi−x)
S2∑n
j=1wijxj−x(4)
whe e in he analysis:
•Ii
: he Local Mo an’s I s a is ic o egion
i
wi h espec o ei he economically ac i e
popula ion o g oss alue added.
•xi
and
xj
: he alues o he economically ac i e popula ion o g oss alue added in
egions i and j, espec i ely.
•x
: he mean o he economically ac i e popula ion o g oss alue added ac oss all egions.
•S2: he sample a iance o he economically ac i e popula ion o g oss alue added.
•wij: he spa ial weigh be ween egions i and j.
•n: is he o al numbe o egions.
Howe e , he median Local Mo an’s I is u ilised by he pape . The speci ic me hod
is applied by he economically ac i e popula ion and g oss alue added da a oo. This
me hod uses he median o he Local Mo an’s I alues, which makes i less sensi i e o
ex eme alues han he adi ional Local Mo an’s I.
So, he Median Local Mo an’s I calcula es he median o all Local Mo an’s I s a is ics
ac oss egions:
MLI =median(I1, I2, . . . In)(5)
whe e
MLI
is he Median Local Mo an’s I s a is ic and
Ii
is he Local Mo an’s I s a is ic o
egion i.
While, in a ele an clus e map:
•
High–High: Indica es egions wi h high alues su ounded by neighbou ing egions
wi h high alues as well
•
Low–High: Indica es egions wi h low alues su ounded by neighbou ing egions
wi h high alues.
•
High–Low: Indica es egions wi h high alues su ounded by neighbou ing egions
wi h low alues.
•
Low–Low: Indica es egions wi h low alues su ounded by neighbou ing egions
wi h low alues as well.
Fu he mo e, he loca ion quo ien implemen s o iden i y he specialisa ion o each
G eek egion in each examined economic b anch. The loca ion quo ien (LQ) is gi en by
he speci ic equa ion (Isse man 1977):
LQ =
GVAi
GVAin,GVA
GVAn
(6)
In he analysis,
GVA
is he examined g oss alue added,
i
: he economic b anches,
:
he NUTS2 egion and
n
: he coun y. I he loca ion quo ien is g ea e han one, i means
ha he NUTS2 egion is specialised in he examined economic b anch i.
The use o only 13 NUTS2 egions in his s udy p esen s ce ain challenges, pa icula ly
conce ning he spa ial model’s obus ness, gi en he ela i ely small numbe o spa ial
uni s. Howe e , his choice is jus i ied by he ac ha hese egions ep esen c i ical
adminis a i e and economic di isions wi hin G eece, making hem highly ele an o
egional policy analysis. While he use o mo e g anula NUTS3 da a would ha e been
p e e able, such da a is ei he no a ailable o lacks he consis ency needed o obus
modelling a ha le el. To compensa e o his limi a ion, he analysis inco po a es a
panel da ase co e ing he yea s 2001 and 2021, e ec i ely inc easing he empo al dep h
and sample size. This app oach s eng hens he model’s alidi y by cap u ing long- e m
spa ial dynamics and educing he isks associa ed wi h c oss-sec ional limi a ions. The
Economies 2024,12, 284 7 o 22
implemen a ion o spa ial eg ession echniques, such as he Spa ial Lag and Spa ial E o
models, u he add esses hese challenges by accoun ing o spa ial dependencies be ween
egions, ensu ing ha spillo e e ec s be ween neighbou ing egions a e cap u ed and
ha bias is educed in he esul s. Mo eo e , he Local Mo an’s I s a is ic, pa icula ly
i s median-based e sion, allows o he iden i ica ion o spa ial clus e s and localised
pa e ns o economic pe o mance, mi iga ing he impac o ex eme ou lie s and p o iding
a mo e nuanced unde s anding o spa ial ela ionships. Addi ionally, he s udy u ilises
he Loca ion Quo ien (LQ) o examine egional specialisa ion ac oss 11 economic sec o s,
o e ing a complemen a y non-spa ial pe spec i e. The LQ iden i ies egions wi h speci ic
sec o al s eng hs by compa ing each egion’s sec o al G oss Value Added (GVA) agains
he na ional a e age. A alue abo e one indica es ha a egion is specialised in ha sec o ,
o e ing insigh in o i s compa a i e ad an age. This dual use o spa ial and non-spa ial
me hods, including bo h spa ial eg ession and LQ analysis, p o ides a well- ounded
app oach, enhancing he s udy’s o e all analy ical obus ness despi e he limi ed spa ial
uni s. By in eg a ing hese me hodologies, he s udy deli e s a comp ehensi e examina ion
o egional economic de elopmen pa e ns in G eece.
3. Resul s
Beginning wi h he analysis o he pape , he Figu e 2illus a es he Pea son co ela ion
be ween economically ac i e popula ion and g oss alue added o he yea s 2021 and 2001.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 o 24
spa ial uni s. Howe e , his choice is jus i ied by he ac ha hese egions ep esen
c i ical adminis a i e and economic di isions wi hin G eece, making hem highly ele-
an o egional policy analysis. While he use o mo e g anula NUTS3 da a would ha e
been p e e able, such da a is ei he no a ailable o lacks he consis ency needed o o-
bus modelling a ha le el. To compensa e o his limi a ion, he analysis inco po a es a
panel da ase co e ing he yea s 2001 and 2021, e ec i ely inc easing he empo al dep h
and sample size. This app oach s eng hens he model’s alidi y by cap u ing long- e m
spa ial dynamics and educing he isks associa ed wi h c oss-sec ional limi a ions. The
implemen a ion o spa ial eg ession echniques, such as he Spa ial Lag and Spa ial E o
models, u he add esses hese challenges by accoun ing o spa ial dependencies be-
ween egions, ensu ing ha spillo e e ec s be ween neighbou ing egions a e cap u ed
and ha bias is educed in he esul s. Mo eo e , he Local Mo an’s I s a is ic, pa icula ly
i s median-based e sion, allows o he iden i ica ion o spa ial clus e s and localised
pa e ns o economic pe o mance, mi iga ing he impac o ex eme ou lie s and
p o iding a mo e nuanced unde s anding o spa ial ela ionships. Addi ionally, he
s udy u ilises he Loca ion Quo ien (LQ) o examine egional specialisa ion ac oss 11
economic sec o s, o e ing a complemen a y non-spa ial pe spec i e. The LQ iden i ies
egions wi h speci ic sec o al s eng hs by compa ing each egion’s sec o al G oss Value
Added (GVA) agains he na ional a e age. A alue abo e one indica es ha a egion is
specialised in ha sec o , o e ing insigh in o i s compa a i e ad an age. This dual use o
spa ial and non-spa ial me hods, including bo h spa ial eg ession and LQ analysis, p o-
ides a well- ounded app oach, enhancing he s udy’s o e all analy ical obus ness de-
spi e he limi ed spa ial uni s. By in eg a ing hese me hodologies, he s udy deli e s a
comp ehensi e examina ion o egional economic de elopmen pa e ns in G eece.
3. Resul s
Beginning wi h he analysis o he pape , he Figu e 2 illus a es he Pea son co e-
la ion be ween economically ac i e popula ion and g oss alue added o he yea s 2021
and 2001.
Figu e 2.Pea son co ela ion.
So, Figu e 2 p esen s he alues o 0.987 (2021) and 0.988 (2001) espec i ely, indi-
ca ing ha a ia ions in economically ac i e popula ion closely p edic a ia ions in g oss
alue added. The nea -pe ec alues sugges ha economically ac i e popula ion is a
c ucial de e minan o g oss alue added. This s ong co ela ion highligh s he c i ical
ole o a obus wo k o ce in d i ing egional economic pe o mance. Table 1 indica es
he esul s o spa ial eg ession models be ween economically ac i e popula ion and
g oss alue added o 2021 and 2001.
Figu e 2. Pea son co ela ion.
So, Figu e 2p esen s he alues o 0.987 (2021) and 0.988 (2001) espec i ely, indi-
ca ing ha a ia ions in economically ac i e popula ion closely p edic a ia ions in g oss
alue added. The nea -pe ec
alues sugges ha economically ac i e popula ion is a
c ucial de e minan o g oss alue added. This s ong co ela ion highligh s he c i ical
ole o a obus wo k o ce in d i ing egional economic pe o mance. Table 1indica es
he esul s o spa ial eg ession models be ween economically ac i e popula ion and g oss
alue added o 2021 and 2001.
Acco ding he abo e able, he Spa ial Lag Model (SLM) indica es a s ong spa ial lag
e ec wi h a coe icien o 0.692, meaning g oss alue added in a egion is signi ican ly
in luenced by g oss alue added in neighbou ing egions in bo h yea s. The economically
ac i e popula ion coe icien is highly signi ican in bo h yea s, wi h alues o 46.429 o
2021 and 36.858 o 2001, showing ha an inc ease in he economically ac i e popula ion
posi i ely impac s g oss alue added. The Akaike In o ma ion C i e ion (AIC) alues o
he SLM a e 249.748 o 2021 and 243.565 o 2001, sugges ing a sligh ly be e i o he
2001 model. The Spa ial E o Model (SEM) e eals a signi ican Lambda coe icien o
1.444 in bo h yea s, indica ing subs an ial spa ial au oco ela ion in he e o e ms. This
sugges s ha unobse ed spa ial e ec s a e signi ican . The economically ac i e popula ion
emains a signi ican p edic o o g oss alue added, wi h coe icien s o 46.429 o 2021
Economies 2024,12, 284 8 o 22
and 34.847 o 2001. The AIC alues o he SEM a e 247.748 o 2021 and 241.565 o 2001,
indica ing a ma ginally be e i compa ed o he SLM. O e all, while bo h models cap u e
signi ican spa ial dependencies, he SEM p o ides a sligh ly be e i , highligh ing he
impo ance o accoun ing o spa ial au oco ela ion in he e o e ms.
Table 1. SLM and SEM esul s.
Spa ial Lag Model Spa ial E o Model
Va iable
2021 Coe icien S d.E o z-Value P obabili y Va iable
2021 Coe icien S d.E o z-Value P obabili y
W_GVA 0.692 0.221 313.126 0.002 EAP 46.429 2.236 20.762 0.000
EAP 46.429 2.236 20.762 0.000 LAMBDA 1.444 0.338 4.270 0.000
Lag coe .
(Rho) 0.692 Lag coe .
(Lambda) 1.444
Akaike in o
c i e ion 249.748 Akaike in o
c i e ion 247.748
Va iable
2001 Coe icien S d.E o z-Value P obabili y Va iable
2001 Coe icien S d.E o z-Value P obabili y
W_GVA 0.692 0.221 313.126 0.002 EAP 34.847 1.529 22.792 0.000
EAP 36.858 1.740 21.183 0.000 LAMBDA 1.444 0.338 4.270 0.000
Lag coe .
(Rho) 0.692 Lag coe .
(Lambda) 1.444
Akaike in o
c i e ion 243.565 Akaike in o
c i e ion 241.565
The nex ables p esen demog aphic da a o he o al, male, and emale economically
ac i e popula ions o G eek NUTS2 egions, ocusing on di e en age g oups: 15 o
24 yea s, 25 o 34 yea s, 35 o 44 yea s, 45 o 54 yea s, 55 o 64 yea s, and 65 yea s o o e .
Fo each age g oup, he 2021 popula ion coun and he pe cen age g ow h a e be ween
2021 and 2001 a e p o ided. The speci ic ables assis in iden i ying he egions wi h he
highes and lowes economically ac i e popula ions and hei g ow h ends. Mo eo e ,
he nex igu es p esen maps o uni a ia e median local Mo an’s I o he o al, male, and
emale economically ac i e popula ions. These maps a e used o isualise and analyse he
spa ial au oco ela ion o he economically ac i e popula ions ac oss di e en egions. By
examining he local Mo an’s I alues, he s udy can iden i y clus e s o egions wi h simila
o dissimila le els o economically ac i e popula ions, which can e eal unde lying spa ial
pa e ns and ends.
Beginning he analysis, based on Eu os a ’s (2024c) da a, he o al popula ion o G eece
in 2021 was 10,678,632. The male popula ion was 5,196,048, while he emale popula ion
was 5,482,584. Be ween 2001 and 2021, he o al popula ion declined by 1.45%. Du ing he
same pe iod, he male popula ion dec eased by 2.51%, and he emale popula ion dec eased
by 0.42%.Acco ding o Table 2, A iki (G eece’s la ges me opoli an egion which includes
he capi al ci y o A hens) exhibi s he highes o al economically ac i e popula ion in
2021. I is ollowed by Ken iki Makedonia ( he second la ges me opoli an egion o
G eece, loca ed in he no h and bo de ing Bulga ia and he Republic o No h Macedonia).
On he o he hand, Vo eio Aigaio (an insula egion loca ed in he no heas pa o he
Aegean Sea, sha ing ma ine bo de s wi h Tu key) has he lowes o al economically ac i e
popula ion. Howe e , his pa icula egion shows a no able g ow h a e compa ed o o he
G eek egions.
Economies 2024,12, 284 15 o 22
Acco ding o Figu e 8, he o al g oss alue added inc eases in 2021 compa ed o 2001
in he G eek economy. The economic b anch o “Wholesale and e ail ade, anspo ,
accommoda ion, and ood se ice ac i i ies” has he highes g oss alue added compa ed
o o he economic b anches o he mos ecen yea . I is ollowed by he b anches “Public
adminis a ion, de ence, educa ion, human heal h, and social wo k ac i i ies”, “Real es a e
ac i i ies”, and “Manu ac u ing”. Fu he mo e, hese speci ic b anches, along wi h he
b anches “Ene gy”, “In o ma ion and communica ion”, “Financial and insu ance ac i i ies”,
and “P o essional, scien i ic and echnical ac i i ies; adminis a i e and suppo se ice
ac i i ies” inc ease hei g oss added alue in 2021 compa ed o 2001. On he con a y,
he economic b anch o “Cons uc ion” has he lowes g oss added alue, a b anch ha ,
as shown in he diag am, has signi ican ly dec eased in g oss added alue compa ed o
2001. O he economic b anches ha exhibi a dec ease in g oss added alue du ing he
examined pe iod a e “Ag icul u e, o es y, and ishing” and “A s, en e ainmen and
ec ea ion; o he se ice ac i i ies; ac i i ies o household and ex a- e i o ial o ganisa ions
and bodies”.
The nex able (Table 5) displays he loca ion quo ien s, highligh ing he deg ee o
specialisa ion ac oss G eek egions. Meanwhile, he ollowing igu es (Figu es 9–11) depic
clus e o ma ion based on g oss alue added da a o e eal spa ial pa e ns o economic
sec o s h ough Uni a ia e Local Mo an’s I, highligh ing egional economic s uc u es o
2021 and 2001.
The analysis p esen ed in Table 5shows ha a conside able numbe o G eek egions
specialised in he economic b anch o “Ag icul u e, o es y and ishing”. Especially,
Thessalia, Dy iki Makedonia, Peloponnisos, Dy iki Ellada and Ipei os display no able
loca ion quo ien s among he G eek egions o he ecen yea . Fu he mo e, Dy iki
Makedonia shows he la ges loca ion quo ien s in “Ene gy” o bo h examined yea s,
while he mainland egion o S e ea Ellada displays he la ges loca ion quo ien s in he
economic b anch o “Manu ac u ing” o 2001 and 2021.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 18 o 24
The analysis p esen ed in Table 5 shows ha a conside able numbe o G eek e-
gions specialised in he economic b anch o “Ag icul u e, o es y and ishing”. Espe-
cially, Thessalia, Dy iki Makedonia, Peloponnisos, Dy iki Ellada and Ipei os display no-
able loca ion quo ien s among he G eek egions o he ecen yea . Fu he mo e, Dy iki
Makedonia shows he la ges loca ion quo ien s in “Ene gy” o bo h examined yea s,
while he mainland egion o S e ea Ellada displays he la ges loca ion quo ien s in he
economic b anch o “Manu ac u ing” o 2001 and 2021.
In he economic b anch “Cons uc ion”, Ipei os exhibi s he highes loca ion quo-
ien . In he economic sec o “Wholesale and e ail ade, anspo , accommoda ion and
ood se ice ac i i ies”, he insula egions o Ionian Nisia and No io Aigaio display he
highes loca ion quo ien s which a e explained by he ac ha hey a e signi ican ou is
des ina ions. In he economic sec o s “In o ma ion and communica ion”, “Financial and
insu ance ac i i ies”, “Real es a e ac i i ies”, and “P o essional, scien i ic and echnical
ac i i ies; adminis a i e and suppo se ice ac i i ies”, he egion specialising uniquely
is A iki. Finally, ega ding he b anch “Public adminis a ion, de ence, educa ion, human
heal h and social wo k ac i i ies”, Vo eio Aigaio illus a es he highes loca ion quo ien
o 2021, indica ing a signi ican specialisa ion enhancemen compa ed o 2001. Simila ly,
in he b anch “A s, en e ainmen and ec ea ion; o he se ice ac i i ies; ac i i ies o
household and ex a- e i o ial o ganisa ions and bodies”, ano he insula egion, Ionian
Nisia, displays he highes loca ion quo ien o 2021.
Figu e 9. Clus e maps o “P ima y sec o ” o 2021 and 2001.
Figu e 9 shows ha Ana oliki Makedonia–Th aki and K i i exhibi signi ican clus-
e ing o high g oss alue added in he “P ima y sec o ” in 2021 and 2001, espec i ely.
Dy iki Makedonia, Ipei os, A iki, and he insula egions a e classi ied as Low–High,
wi h low alues su ounded by highe ones. Ken iki Makedonia, Thessalia, S e ea Ella-
da, Dy iki Ellada, Peloponnisos, and K i i a e High–Low, ea u ing high alues su -
ounded by lowe ones in 2021.
Figu e 9. Clus e maps o “P ima y sec o ” o 2021 and 2001.
Economies 2024,12, 284 16 o 22
Table 5. Loca ion quo ien pe economic b anch and G eek NUTS2 egion, 2001 and 2021.
NUTS2
A B C D E F G H I J K
2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001
Ana oliki
Makedonia,
Th aki
1.86 2.08 1.68 1.24 1.16 1.11 0.97 1.11 0.83 0.92 0.43 0.48 0.55 0.57 0.69 0.57 0.53 0.63 1.38 1.18 0.78 1.00
Ken iki
Makedonia 1.48 1.44 0.69 0.75 1.31 1.32 1.03 0.86 1.04 1.03 0.54 0.53 0.62 0.73 0.79 0.73 0.70 0.87 1.20 1.04 1.05 1.20
Dy iki Makedonia 2.49 1.56 5.61 9.20 0.52 0.34 1.34 1.32 0.50 0.58 0.26 0.34 0.50 0.45 0.59 0.54 0.36 0.50 1.02 0.84 0.75 0.91
Ipei os 2.21 1.96 0.98 1.08 0.84 0.61 1.77 1.46 0.91 0.95 0.36 0.43 0.65 0.57 0.89 0.81 0.54 0.58 1.31 1.29 0.83 0.90
Thessalia 3.22 2.32 0.50 0.57 1.41 1.14 1.10 0.92 0.78 0.92 0.24 0.38 0.50 0.55 0.75 0.76 0.53 0.65 1.33 1.16 0.93 1.18
S e ea Ellada 1.54 2.01 3.74 0.91 2.37 2.99 0.88 1.08 0.65 0.68 0.22 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.62 0.57 0.39 0.38 0.70 0.69 0.76 0.65
Ionia Nisia 0.89 0.90 0.46 0.42 0.25 0.20 1.30 0.93 1.84 1.96 0.28 0.37 0.44 0.41 1.03 0.79 0.71 0.52 0.77 0.78 1.16 0.95
Dy iki Ellada 2.22 2.39 1.20 0.71 0.89 0.83 1.26 1.39 0.89 0.97 0.55 0.60 0.52 0.58 0.95 0.87 0.58 0.53 1.19 1.01 1.12 0.93
Peloponnisos 2.24 2.12 2.62 1.36 1.33 1.49 1.24 1.07 0.77 1.17 0.32 0.52 0.47 0.52 0.94 0.91 0.37 0.54 0.85 1.05 1.11 1.05
A iki 0.09 0.08 0.46 0.72 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.90 1.00 0.92 1.65 1.65 1.48 1.52 1.22 1.32 1.44 1.43 0.90 1.03 1.04 1.03
Vo eio Aigaio 1.00 1.86 0.89 0.54 0.37 0.27 1.35 1.04 0.93 1.28 0.44 0.62 0.81 0.65 0.97 0.97 0.60 0.62 1.69 1.18 0.83 0.75
No io Aigaio 0.55 0.58 0.99 1.24 0.23 0.23 1.62 1.28 1.94 1.94 0.26 0.34 0.52 0.48 0.81 0.70 0.77 0.50 0.74 0.72 0.82 0.73
K i i 1.85 1.67 0.90 0.87 0.61 0.45 1.22 1.25 1.38 1.41 0.51 0.48 0.82 0.62 0.76 0.71 0.80 0.72 0.93 0.92 1.00 0.89
A: Ag icul u e, o es y and ishing, B: Ene gy, C: Manu ac u ing, D: Cons uc ion, E: Wholesale and e ail ade, anspo , accommoda ion and ood se ice ac i i ies, F: In o ma ion
and communica ion, G: Financial and insu ance ac i i ies, H: Real es a e ac i i ies, I: P o essional, scien i ic and echnical ac i i ies, adminis a i e and suppo se ice ac i i ies, J: Public
adminis a ion, de ence, educa ion, human heal h and social wo k ac i i ies, K: A s, en e ainmen and ec ea ion; o he se ice ac i i ies; ac i i ies o household and ex a- e i o ial
o ganisa ions and bodies.
Economies 2024,12, 284 17 o 22
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 19 o 24
Figu e 10. Clus e maps o “Seconda y sec o ” o 2021 and 2001.
Figu e 10 iden i ies Dy iki Makedonia as High–High, e lec ing high g oss alue
added in he “Seconda y sec o ” among simila ly high- alue egions in 2021 and 2001.
Ipei os, Dy iki Ellada, and he insula egions a e Low–High, wi h low alues su -
ounded by highe ones. Ana oliki Makedonia–Th aki, Ken iki Makedonia, Thessalia,
S e ea Ellada, A iki, and Peloponnisos a e High–Low, displaying s ong alues amids
egions wi h lowe pe o mance in 2021.
Figu e 11. Clus e maps o “Te ia y sec o ” o 2021 and 2001.
Figu e 11 exhibi s Peloponnisos as High–High, wi h high g oss alue added in he
“Te ia y sec o ” su ounded by simila high- alue egions o he ecen yea . Ana oliki
Makedonia–Th aki, Dy iki Makedonia, Ipei os, S e ea Ellada, Ionia Nisia and Vo eio
Aigaio a e Low–High, indica ing low alues su ounded by highe ones. Ken iki Mak-
edonia, Thessalia, Dy iki Ellada, A iki, No io Aigaio, and K i i a e High–Low, ea u ing
s ong alues amids egions wi h less imp essi e pe o mance.
Figu e 10. Clus e maps o “Seconda y sec o ” o 2021 and 2001.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 19 o 24
Figu e 10. Clus e maps o “Seconda y sec o ” o 2021 and 2001.
Figu e 10 iden i ies Dy iki Makedonia as High–High, e lec ing high g oss alue
added in he “Seconda y sec o ” among simila ly high- alue egions in 2021 and 2001.
Ipei os, Dy iki Ellada, and he insula egions a e Low–High, wi h low alues su -
ounded by highe ones. Ana oliki Makedonia–Th aki, Ken iki Makedonia, Thessalia,
S e ea Ellada, A iki, and Peloponnisos a e High–Low, displaying s ong alues amids
egions wi h lowe pe o mance in 2021.
Figu e 11. Clus e maps o “Te ia y sec o ” o 2021 and 2001.
Figu e 11 exhibi s Peloponnisos as High–High, wi h high g oss alue added in he
“Te ia y sec o ” su ounded by simila high- alue egions o he ecen yea . Ana oliki
Makedonia–Th aki, Dy iki Makedonia, Ipei os, S e ea Ellada, Ionia Nisia and Vo eio
Aigaio a e Low–High, indica ing low alues su ounded by highe ones. Ken iki Mak-
edonia, Thessalia, Dy iki Ellada, A iki, No io Aigaio, and K i i a e High–Low, ea u ing
s ong alues amids egions wi h less imp essi e pe o mance.
Figu e 11. Clus e maps o “Te ia y sec o ” o 2021 and 2001.
In he economic b anch “Cons uc ion”, Ipei os exhibi s he highes loca ion quo-
ien . In he economic sec o “Wholesale and e ail ade, anspo , accommoda ion and
ood se ice ac i i ies”, he insula egions o Ionian Nisia and No io Aigaio display he
highes loca ion quo ien s which a e explained by he ac ha hey a e signi ican ou is
des ina ions. In he economic sec o s “In o ma ion and communica ion”, “Financial and
insu ance ac i i ies”, “Real es a e ac i i ies”, and “P o essional, scien i ic and echnical
ac i i ies; adminis a i e and suppo se ice ac i i ies”, he egion specialising uniquely is
A iki. Finally, ega ding he b anch “Public adminis a ion, de ence, educa ion, human
heal h and social wo k ac i i ies”, Vo eio Aigaio illus a es he highes loca ion quo ien
o 2021, indica ing a signi ican specialisa ion enhancemen compa ed o 2001. Simila ly,
in he b anch “A s, en e ainmen and ec ea ion; o he se ice ac i i ies; ac i i ies o
household and ex a- e i o ial o ganisa ions and bodies”, ano he insula egion, Ionian
Nisia, displays he highes loca ion quo ien o 2021.
Economies 2024,12, 284 18 o 22
Figu e 9shows ha Ana oliki Makedonia–Th aki and K i i exhibi signi ican clus e -
ing o high g oss alue added in he “P ima y sec o ” in 2021 and 2001, espec i ely. Dy iki
Makedonia, Ipei os, A iki, and he insula egions a e classi ied as Low–High, wi h low
alues su ounded by highe ones. Ken iki Makedonia, Thessalia, S e ea Ellada, Dy iki
Ellada, Peloponnisos, and K i i a e High–Low, ea u ing high alues su ounded by lowe
ones in 2021.
Figu e 10 iden i ies Dy iki Makedonia as High–High, e lec ing high g oss alue added
in he “Seconda y sec o ” among simila ly high- alue egions in 2021 and 2001. Ipei os,
Dy iki Ellada, and he insula egions a e Low–High, wi h low alues su ounded by
highe ones. Ana oliki Makedonia–Th aki, Ken iki Makedonia, Thessalia, S e ea Ellada,
A iki, and Peloponnisos a e High–Low, displaying s ong alues amids egions wi h
lowe pe o mance in 2021.
Figu e 11 exhibi s Peloponnisos as High–High, wi h high g oss alue added in he
“Te ia y sec o ” su ounded by simila high- alue egions o he ecen yea . Ana oliki
Makedonia–Th aki, Dy iki Makedonia, Ipei os, S e ea Ellada, Ionia Nisia and Vo eio Aigaio
a e Low–High, indica ing low alues su ounded by highe ones. Ken iki Makedonia,
Thessalia, Dy iki Ellada, A iki, No io Aigaio, and K i i a e High–Low, ea u ing s ong
alues amids egions wi h less imp essi e pe o mance.
4. Discussion
The analysis e eals signi ican co ela ions be ween he economically ac i e popula-
ion and g oss alue added (GVA) ac oss G eek NUTS2 egions o 2001 and 2021, e lec ed
in nea -pe ec Pea son co ela ion coe icien s o 0.987 o 2021 and 0.988 o 2001. These
indings unde sco e he c i ical ole o a ib an wo k o ce in d i ing egional economic
pe o mance, aligning wi h p io s udies by F anklin (2012) and Lee and Shin (2021), which
emphasise he in luence o demog aphic cha ac e is ics on GDP g ow h. This obus ela-
ionship a i ms he insigh s om Gómez and de Cos Pablo (2008), who highligh ed he
posi i e co ela ion be ween popula ion dynamics and economic pe o mance ac oss a i-
ous con ex s. Spa ial dependence is a no able aspec o he indings, indica ed by he Spa ial
Lag Model (SLM) and Spa ial E o Model (SEM), which e eal s ong in e dependencies
be ween neighbou ing egions. This suppo s Gómez and de Cos Pablo’s (2008) asse ion
ega ding how demog aphic ansi ions in one egion can signi ican ly a ec economic
ou comes in adjacen a eas. In he con ex o he analysis, egions wi h highe economically
ac i e popula ions exe conside able in luence on he economic ac i i ies o neighbou ing
egions, c ea ing posi i e spillo e e ec s. This dynamic is pa icula ly e iden in he
me opoli an a ea o A iki, which, as he p ima y u ban hub, consis en ly exhibi s he
highes economically ac i e popula ion. The egion’s high concen a ion o people and
economic ac i i ies ein o ces he indings o Ku ek (2011) and Kashni sky e al. (2021),
which sugges ha demog aphic changes a e shaped by unique egional cha ac e is ics
and his o ical con ex s, esul ing in spa ial dispa i ies. The demog aphic da a segmen ed
by age g oups e eals no able ends ac oss he G eek egions. The 15 o 24 and 25 o
34 age g oups gene ally expe ienced a decline in hei economically ac i e popula ions
om 2001 o 2021. Con e sely, he 45 o 54 and 55 o 64 age g oups exhibi ed inc eases in
hei pe cen age g ow h a es. This aligns wi h indings om F anklin (2012) and Cheng
e al. (2019), who explo ed he signi ican in luence o ageing popula ions on egional eco-
nomic ou comes. These shi s indica e a complex demog aphic landscape whe e younge
popula ions a e declining while olde age coho s a e becoming mo e p ominen , ul ima ely
impac ing he wo k o ce composi ion and economic i ali y o a ious egions. Examining
spa ial pa e ns highligh s dis inc dis ibu ions o economically ac i e popula ions and
hei g ow h a es ac oss di e en age g oups and gende s. The economically ac i e pop-
ula ion ends co ela e wi h he loca ion quo ien analysis, e lec ing egional economic
specialisa ions. Regions such as Thessalia, Peloponnisos, and Dy iki Makedonia, which
a e p ima ily ocused on he “p ima y sec o ,” a e acing popula ion declines, signalling
po en ial economic challenges. In con as , No io Aigaio, wi h high loca ion quo ien s in
Economies 2024,12, 284 19 o 22
ou ism- ela ed sec o s, is expe iencing signi ican wo k o ce g ow h. This inding sugges s
ha egions wi h di e se o h i ing economic sec o s a e be e posi ioned o e ain o
a ac a la ge wo k o ce, while hose wi h na owe specialisa ions may s uggle o main-
ain hei popula ions. The clus e ing o economically ac i e popula ions, as illus a ed
in he Mo an’s I maps, indica es egions exhibi ing simila demog aphic ends. This
clus e ing ein o ces he no ion o egional specialisa ion and economic in e dependence.
Regions ha neighbou hose wi h high alues in economically ac i e popula ions and GVA
demons a e a high–high clus e ing e ec based on median Local Mo an’s I. This dynamic
sugges s ha egions wi h highe economically ac i e popula ions s imula e economic
ac i i ies and oppo uni ies in su ounding a eas, os e ing a collabo a i e en i onmen
ha a ac s businesses, in es men s, and wo k o ce mig a ion. No ably, he me opoli an
egions o A iki and Ken iki Makedonia a e key playe s in his in e ac ion, in luencing
adjacen egions h ough he c ea ion o economic spillo e e ec s and inc eased demand
o suppo ing se ices. These obse a ions unde line he impo ance o egional economic
specialisa ion, as discussed by Lin e al. (2015), Dolls e al. (2019), and Okada (2020). The
pa e ns indica e ha success ul egions end o be hose ha de elop di e se economic
bases, allowing o esilience in he ace o demog aphic changes and economic challenges.
The sec o al analysis highligh s signi ican specialisa ions, pa icula ly in ag icul u e and
ou ism, wi h a ma ked decline in he cons uc ion sec o . This decline aligns wi h he
obse a ions made by Cai and S oyano (2016) and Bo da e al. (2023), who no ed ha
demog aphic changes and an ageing labou o ce ad e sely a ec sec o al e iciencies. The
high g oss alue added in he “Wholesale and e ail ade, anspo , accommoda ion,
and ood se ice ac i i ies” sec o illus a es a signi ican shi owa d se ice-o ien ed
economies. This end echoes indings om Cheng e al. (2019), which no ed simila pa -
e ns in u ban e sus u al a eas in China. Such shi s imply ha egions a e inc easingly
mo ing away om adi ional p ima y and seconda y sec o s owa d mo e di e si ied
se ice sec o s, which may be e accommoda e he demands o an ageing popula ion and
e ol ing economic landscape. Howe e , he limi a ions o his s udy wa an a en ion.
The eliance on agg ega ed egional da a may obscu e localised a ia ions and complexi ies
inhe en in demog aphic changes. While he spa ial models e eal signi ican ela ionships,
hey do no accoun o all unobse ed ac o s in luencing economic pe o mance, as high-
ligh ed by DiPasquale (2022). Consequen ly, u u e esea ch should conside longi udinal
s udies ha explo e causal mechanisms linking demog aphic changes o economic ou -
comes, pa icula ly ega ding sec o al pe o mance and income inequali y, as no ed by
Dolls e al. (2019). In addi ion, mo e g anula da a a he NUTS3 le el would enhance
unde s anding o he nuances o demog aphic dynamics. By enabling policymake s o
de elop a ge ed in e en ions ha add ess speci ic challenges and oppo uni ies p esen ed
by ageing popula ions and egional economic dispa i ies, his app oach could lead o mo e
e ec i e policy solu ions. Fu u e in es iga ions could bene i om inco po a ing ine
spa ial scales and addi ional demog aphic a iables, such as educa ional a ainmen and
mig a ion pa e ns, o p o ide a mo e nuanced unde s anding o egional economic dy-
namics. Addi ionally, conside ing ex e nal ac o s, including policy impac s and labou
ma ke condi ions, would en ich he analysis o demog aphic–economic in e ac ions. In
conclusion, hese indings con ibu e o a b oade unde s anding o how demog aphic
changes in luence egional economic pe o mance, emphasising he complex in e play
be ween popula ion dynamics, egional specialisa ion, and economic ou comes. As e-
gions con inue o na iga e he challenges posed by demog aphic ansi ions, i becomes
inc easingly essen ial o de elop policies ha p omo e sus ainable economic g ow h while
add essing he speci ic needs o di e se popula ions. This comp ehensi e app oach will
ul ima ely acili a e he c ea ion o esilien and adap able economies capable o h i ing in
an e e -changing demog aphic landscape.
Economies 2024,12, 284 20 o 22
5. Conclusions
In summa y, he esul s highligh signi ican spa ial and empo al a ia ions in he
economically ac i e popula ion and g oss alue added (GVA) ac oss G eek NUTS2 egions.
A s ong posi i e co ela ion exis s be ween he economically ac i e popula ion and GVA
in bo h 2021 and 2001, as e lec ed in he nea -pe ec Pea son co ela ion coe icien s.
This emphasises he c ucial ole o a obus wo k o ce in d i ing egional economic pe -
o mance. The spa ial eg ession models u he unde sco e he impo ance o spa ial
dependencies, wi h he Spa ial Lag Model (SLM) and Spa ial E o Model (SEM) e ealing
signi ican spa ial au oco ela ion. The SEM p o ides a sligh ly be e i , sugges ing ha
unobse ed spa ial e ec s signi ican ly in luence GVA dis ibu ion. The demog aphic
analysis demons a es a decline in G eece’s o al popula ion be ween 2001 and 2021, wi h
male popula ions declining mo e s eeply han emale popula ions. Despi e his, A iki,
he coun y’s me opoli an hub, consis en ly leads in bo h o al and gende -speci ic eco-
nomically ac i e popula ions, ollowed by Ken iki Makedonia. Regions such as Vo eio
Aigaio, Ionia Nisia, and Ipei os ypically show he lowes economically ac i e popula ions.
Howe e , Vo eio Aigaio displays no able g ow h, especially among olde age g oups,
highligh ing egional dispa i ies in demog aphic ends. Spa ial clus e ing o economically
ac i e popula ions and GVA e eals egional economic pa e ns. High- alue egions, such
as A iki and Ken iki Makedonia, a e su ounded by lowe -pe o ming a eas, e lec ing
dispa i ies in economic de elopmen . Fu he mo e, he analysis o sec o -speci ic GVA
shows ha egions like Thessalia and Dy iki Makedonia specialise in ag icul u e and en-
e gy, while A iki domina es in se ices like inance and communica ion. In conclusion,
G eece’s egional economies exhibi subs an ial spa ial dependencies, wi h me opoli an
egions leading in economic pe o mance. Pe iphe al and insula egions, al hough lagging
in o e all economic ac i i y, show p omising g ow h in ce ain sec o s and demog aphic
g oups. Accoun ing o spa ial au oco ela ion in egional economic models is c ucial o
accu a e analysis and policy planning aimed a os e ing balanced egional de elopmen .
Au ho Con ibu ions: Concep ualiza ion, M.C., A.G. and E.G.; me hodology, M.C., A.G. and E.G.;
so wa e, M.C., A.G. and E.G.; alida ion, M.C., A.G. and E.G.; o mal analysis, M.C., A.G. and E.G.;
in es iga ion, M.C., A.G. and E.G.; esou ces, M.C., A.G. and E.G.; da a cu a ion, M.C., A.G. and E.G.;
w i ing—o iginal d a p epa a ion, M.C., A.G. and E.G.; w i ing— e iew and edi ing, M.C., A.G.
and E.G.; isualiza ion, M.C., A.G. and E.G.; supe ision, M.C., A.G. and E.G.; p ojec adminis a ion,
M.C., A.G. and E.G.; unding acquisi ion, M.C., A.G. and E.G. All au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o
he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: This esea ch ecei ed no ex e nal unding.
In o med Consen S a emen : In o med consen was ob ained om all subjec s.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : The au ho s o his s udy ob ained he da a om o icial s a is ical
sou ces such as Eu os a (h ps://ec.eu opa.eu/eu os a ) accessed on 5 Ap il 2024.
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic o in e es .
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