Explaining the recent reduction of Indonesia's deforestation

Angelsen, A ild; De mawan, Ahmad; Ladewig, Mal e
Resea ch Repo
Explaining he ecen educ ion o Indonesia's
de o es a ion
Cen e o Land Tenu e S udies Repo , No. 01/25
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Cen e o Land Tenu e S udies (CLTS), No wegian Uni e si y o Li e Sciences (NMBU)
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Angelsen, A ild; De mawan, Ahmad; Ladewig, Mal e (2025) : Explaining he
ecen educ ion o Indonesia's de o es a ion, Cen e o Land Tenu e S udies Repo , No. 01/25,
ISBN 978-82-7490-330-2, No wegian Uni e si y o Li e Sciences (NMBU), Cen e o Land Tenu e
S udies (CLTS), Ås,
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /11250/3176540
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/311679
S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen:
Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen
Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den.
Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle
Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich
machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen.
So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen
(insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en,
gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do
genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e.
Te ms o use:
Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal
and schola ly pu poses.
You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o
exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he
in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public.
I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en
Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise
u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence.
h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Cen e o Land Tenu e S udies Repo 01/25
ISBN: 978-82-7490-330-2
No wegian Uni e si y o Li e Sciences (NMBU)
Explaining he ecen educ ion o Indonesia’s de o es a ion
A ild Angelsen, Ahmad De mawan and Mal e Ladewig
Explaining he ecen educ ion o
Indonesia’s de o es a ion
By
A ild Angelsen, Ahmad De mawan and Mal e Ladewig
School o Economics and Business
No wegian Uni e si y o Li e Sciences, Ås, No way
[email p o ec ed]; ahmad.de [email protected]; [email p o ec ed]
1
Fo ewo d
This epo is p epa ed o by a eam a he School o Economics and Business, No wegian
Uni e si y o Li e Sciences (NMBU). The epo includes da a publicly a ailable by he end o
May 2024, al hough news s o ies un il he end o June 2024 ha e been included.
We a e g a e ul o commen s and c i ical inpu s om Da id Ga eau (Nusan a a A las), Liz
Goldman (GFW, Wo ld Resou ces Ins i u e) and semina pa icipan s a he Rain o es
Founda ion No way. We also hank he 32 esou ce pe sons in Indonesia ha spend hei
aluable imes in he in e iews.
The assessmen s and iews p esen ed in he epo a e hose o he au ho s.
The epo is pa o he BEDROCK p ojec : h ps://bed ock-p ojec .ea h/
Ås, No way, Decembe 2024
2
Execu� e summa y
De o es a ion in Indonesia has declined sha ply since 2015-2016. We use a combina ion o
spa ial land use change da a, in e iews wi h s akeholde s and s a is ical analysis o explain
his educ ion.
The exac ex en o he educ ion in de o es a ion depends on he da a se used, and he yea s
o ime pe iods compa ed, a ying be ween 40% and 90%. A obus es ima e is ha
de o es a ion has allen by a leas 50% since ca. 2016.
The decline is une en ac oss islands and p o inces. The wo main “de o es a ion islands”
Kaliman an and Suma a expe ienced a majo decline, wi h a ela i ely la ge decline in he
o me . The p o inces wi h he la ges absolu e decline we e Riau, Sou h Suma a and Cen al
Kaliman an, ollowed by Wes and Eas Kaliman an.
In e ms o commodi ies d i ing de o es a ion (“di ec d i e s”), palm oil is s ill he mos
impo an commodi y (46% o 2018-2022, acco ding o MapBiomas Indonesia da a, compa ed
o 55% o he pe iod 2010-2017).
Pulp is on he ise as a de o es a ion d i e , pa icula ly in Kaliman an. In he h ee high
de o es a ion p o inces on ha island, he demand o pulp was behind almos 1/3 o he na u al
o es con e sion in 2022.
Mining o coal and aluable mine als such as nickel is also on he ise, wi h MBI da a
sugges ing i s sha e o na ional de o es a ion being 5.4% (2021-2022), compa ed o less han
one (0.9%) o he 2010-2017 pe iod. Mining is pa icula ly impo an in Sulawesi, whe e i
acco ding o one es ima e accoun ed o 30% o he de o es a ion in 2021-2022.
Fi e hypo heses a e pu o wa d o explain he educ ion, ela ed o public policies, p i a e
(co po a e) policies, ci il socie y p essu e, commodi y p ices, and o es sca ci y.
New public (go e nmen ) policies ha e been a main eason o he decline. The mo a o ium o
new pe mi s o p ima y o es and pea lands in 2011 has had an impac , bu also ook ime o
p oduce an e ec on he g ound e ec (in pa as i was a ban on issuing new licences).
In e iewees also s essed ha be e sec o al coo dina ion ela ed o he mo a o ium and o he
e o ms has been key o he slowdown.
A second se o e o ms ela e o i e managemen and pea land p o ec ion, spa ked by he
de as a ing 2015 o es i es. The in e iewees highligh his as a key policy e o m by, o
example, inc easing he accoun abili y o subna ional go e nmen o icials o i e
managemen .
Resul s-based paymen s (RBP) o esul -based con ibu ions we e cen al in he Le e o In en
be ween Indonesia and No way in 2011 and in he new MoU o 2022, al hough he i s
paymen was no made be o e in 2022. An RBP-based p ojec o mo e han USD 100 million
was app o ed by he G een Clima e Fund in 2020. RBP has also been implemen ed a
subna ional le el s a ing in Eas Kaliman an and Jambi wi h ex e nal dono suppo . Some

3
epo s indica e posi i e esul s, al hough hey a e likely o be oo loca ion-speci ic and came
oo la e o ha e had majo impac s on he obse ed decline in na ional de o es a ion igu es
since 2016.
P i a e egula ion such as ce i ica ion and co po a e pledges show p omising signs wi h an
inc easing sha e o oil palm plan a ions being ce i ied. Ye , b eached a e epo ed, and he
o es enc oachmen ac o (i.e., he sha e o new land being con e ed om o es ) has no
d opped as much as o be expec ed. Mo eo e , ce i ica ion o pulp p oduc ion and mining is
lagging behind.
Ci il socie y p essu e has played a ole in pa icula ly wo a eas, al hough he exac ole and
con ibu ion a e ha d o assess. Fi s , CSOs a e ac i e ac o s on he policy a ena, also o
in luence p i a e sec o ini ia i es and policies. Second, CSOs a e impo an wa chdogs o
bo h implemen a ion o public and p i a e egula ions and pledges. This has helped “b inging
he o es s o he cou ”, as one in e iewee obse ed.
Key commodi y p ices we e ela i ely s able du ing he 2016-2020 pe iod, and hus canno
explain much o he decline. Ye , no majo inc ease in he p ices o de o es a ion- isk
commodi ies made he implemen a ion o bo h public and p i a e policies less cos ly (bo h o
poli icians and p oduce s), and made iola ions o laws and egula ions less p o i able,
inc easing policy e ec i eness.
The p ices o coal and mine als such as gold and nickel ha e, howe e , inc eased s eadily o e
he pe iod. The nickel p ice quad upled be ween 2016 and 2022. The inc easing ole o mining
in de o es a ion can la gely be explained by he high and inc easing p o i abili y, and demand
is likely o g ow s eadily in he coming yea s due o he global ene gy ansi ion.
The s a is ical analysis sugges s ha up o 1/3 o he educ ion in de o es a ion can be explained
by o es sca ci y ( o es ansi ion). When a p o ince hi s ca. 40% o es co e , de o es a ion
end o decline.
While we conclude ha all i e hypo heses pu o wa d a e ele an o explain he ecen
decline in de o es a ion, we en a i e conclude ha public polices – in combina ion wi h a o es
ansi ion (sca ci y) e ec – has been he mos impo an ac o s. P i a e policies show mo e
mixed esul s. Behind he public and p i a e policy changes, ci il socie y has played a key ole
in policy e o ms and in p omo ing mo e e ec i e implemen a ion hough i s wa chdog ole.
Non-inc easing ag icul u al commodi y p ices ha e made he implemen a ion o o es
conse a ion policies less cos ly.
De o es a ion is s ill a p o i able ac i i y o land use s and (sub)na ional go e nmen s, and
o es conse a ion is a con inuous ba le, wi h u u e challenges eme ging: he e ec i eness
o cu en policies may weakened o e ime, poli ical p io i ies may change, p ices o
de o es a ion- isk commodi ies may ise, and he composi ion o di ec d i e s change –
equi ing a shi in he policy ocus.
4
Recommenda ions
1. Be ahead o he cu e: The o es ansi ion sugges s a na u al de elopmen wi h
dec easing de o es a ion in low o es co e egions (p o inces) and inc easing
de o es a ion in high o es co e egions. The majo u u e de o es a ion h ea s ha e
mo ed eas wa ds in Indonesia. Mining is likely o be a key d i e o de o es a ion in
Sulawesi, while ood es a es, oil palm and pulpwood plan a ions in Papua a e eme ging as
di ec d i e s in new de o es a ion ho spo .
2. Incen i es o high- o es , low-de o es a ion a eas: Much ocus in he REDD+
discussion has been on educing emissions om high-de o es a ion a eas, and igh ly so.
Taking a mo e long- e m iew and p e en ing u u e inc eases in de o es a ion,
mechanisms ha incen i ise he conse a ion o high- o es , low-de o es a ion a eas a e
also needed, while no ing he challenges o es ima ing addi ionali y – pa icula ly i ca bon
c edi s om hese a eas en e ca bon ading.
3. New de o es a ion- isk commodi ies: The de o es a ion deba e in Indonesia has
adi ionally ocussed on imbe logs and palm oil. Timbe p oduc ion is in decline, and he
sha e o palm oil-d i en de o es a ion is also declining, al hough oil palm cul i a ion is s ill
he main immedia e land use a e o es clea ing. Demand o biodiesel based on palm oil
may make i main ain i s ole as he no. 1 de o es a ion- isk commodi y. Pulp and mining
(nickel) ha e inc eased i s sha e o di ec de o es a ion d i e s, and wi h p icing o key
mine als on he ise his p essu e is likely o con inue. Plans o la ge ood es a es is also
likely o make i an inc easingly impo an d i e .
4. The ene gy ansi ion and de o es a ion: The global ene gy ansi ion has inc eased he
demand o bo h enewable ene gy (palm oil and wood pelle s) and mine als (such as
nickel). Pa adoxically, hese also pose a h ea o Indonesia’s na u al o es s, and balancing
hese ade-o s emains a majo challenge bo h o policy make s and ad ocacy g oups.
5. CSOs wa chdog ole impo an o e ec i e implemen a ion: The p i a e sec o
ini ia i es a e commendable, bu hei impac hinges on hei e ec i e implemen a ion.
Clea ing new o es land emains a p o i able op ion om a business pe spec i e, and
wi hou clea sanc ions o iola ions (bo h o mal and in o mal such as epu a ional isk)
illegal and semi-illegal o es con e sion is likely o con inue.
6. Be e da a on “o he ag icul u e” commodi ies: The sha e o “o he ag icul u e” as a
di ec d i e is inc easing, ye his emains a black box in many da a se s and analyses.
Mo e da a on wha cons i u es his d i e and hei ela i e impo ance (including cocoa,
coconu , co ee, ice, ubbe suga ) a e needed o design and implemen a ge ed policies,
also ela ed o he EUDR.
7. T anspa ency in da a se s and hei uses: Se e al da a se s on de o es a ion o ee co e
loss a e a ailable, wi h qui e di e en p ima y da a sou ces and o es /de o es a ion
de ini ions. This c ea es a wide ange o igu es, opening o che y picking and selec i e
uses. Full anspa ency on de ini ion and da a ans o ma ions is needed o enable be e
compa ison and de ec unde lying ends.
5
Con en s
Fo ewo d .................................................................................................................................... 1
Execu i e summa y .................................................................................................................... 2
Recommenda ions ..................................................................................................................... 4
1 In oduc ion ........................................................................................................................ 7
2 App oach, me hods and da a .............................................................................................. 7
2.1 Analy ical app oach and hypo heses .......................................................................... 7
2.2 Me hods...................................................................................................................... 9
2.3 Da a sou ces ............................................................................................................. 10
3 Disagg ega ion o de o es a ion ....................................................................................... 12
3.1 De o es a ion o e ime............................................................................................ 12
3.2 De o es a ion by loca ion ......................................................................................... 15
3.2.1 Main islands ..................................................................................................... 15
3.2.2 P o inces .......................................................................................................... 17
3.3 De o es a ion- isk commodi ies (di ec d i e s) ...................................................... 19
3.3.1 Land use ansi ions ......................................................................................... 19
3.3.2 Fo es enc oachmen ac o .............................................................................. 21
3.4 Syn hesis o di ec d i e s ........................................................................................ 25
3.4.1 Oil palm d i en de o es a ion slowed down, bu s ill plays a majo ole ........ 25
3.4.2 The eme gence o pulp wood as a de o es a ion d i e ................................... 26
3.4.3 Mining su ging ................................................................................................. 26
4 Policy changes and he links o de o es a ion .................................................................. 27
4.1 Public policies .......................................................................................................... 27
4.1.1 Mo a o ium o new pe mi s ............................................................................. 30
4.1.2 Fo es and pea land managemen ..................................................................... 33
4.1.3 Manda o y e i ica ion and ce i ica ion ......................................................... 36
4.1.4 Resul s-based paymen ..................................................................................... 37
4.1.5 Law en o cemen and in eg a ed i e managemen .......................................... 38
4.2 P i a e sec o (indus y-ini ia ed) policies and measu es ........................................ 38
4.3 Ci il socie y o ganiza ions’ (CSOs) ac ions ............................................................ 41
4.4 Linking policy changes o de o es a ion changes on he g ound ............................. 42
5 Linking changes o b oade economic and ecological changes ....................................... 43
6
5.1 Commodi y p ices and economic luc ua ions ......................................................... 43
5.2 Fo es sca ci y .......................................................................................................... 46
5.2.1 The o es ansi ion ......................................................................................... 46
5.2.2 Reg ession model ............................................................................................. 47
6 Discussion and conclusions ............................................................................................. 52
6.1 Wha has happened? ................................................................................................ 52
6.2 The hypo heses......................................................................................................... 53
6.2.1 H1: Go e nmen policies ................................................................................. 53
6.2.2 H2: P i a e policies and indus y ac ion .......................................................... 54
6.2.3 H3: Ci il socie y p essu e ................................................................................ 54
6.2.4 H4: Ma ke s and p ices o de o es a ion- isk commodi ies ............................. 54
6.2.5 H5: Fo es sca ci y and he o es ansi ion .................................................... 55
6.3 Concluding ema ks ................................................................................................. 55
Re e ences ................................................................................................................................ 57
Annex 1: In e iew guide ......................................................................................................... 67
13
Since i s ecen peak, de o es a ion has allen by 69% acco ding o GFW da a (2016-2023) and
by 79% acco ding o TMF da a (2015-2022). KHLK and MBI da a show an e en la ge decline
o 90% o bo h da a se s (2015-2021 o KHLK, and 2011-2022 o MBI).
De o es a ion luc ua es by yea , and che y picking he op yea exagge a es he decline. A
mo e ep esen a i e igu e is o compa e a pe iod be o e and a e he change. Taking he
a e age o he yea s 2010-2017 and 2020-2022, de o es a ion has d opped by 64% (GFW),
58% (TMF), 52% (KLHK) and 59% (MBI).4 Taken oge he , we can conclude ha
de o es a ion has been educed by a leas 50% since ca. 2016.
Da a om he Indonesian Minis y o En i onmen and Fo es y (KLHK) is use ul o
compa ison, while i should be no ed ha i is e e ing o ne de o es a ion and o es co e
include ee plan a ions.
In all da a se s excep MBI, de o es a ion has s abilized since 2020. A he ime o inalizing
his epo , 2023 da a a e only a ailable om GFW and Nusan a a A las, bo h based on Landsa
da a. These sugges an inc ease om 2022, wi h an inc ease o 21% (GFW) and 34%
(Nusan a a A las) om 2022 o 2023. Repo s sugges an inc ease in oil palm and pulp and
pape d i en de o es a ion in 2023, hus 2022 may ep esen a u ning poin .5 These da a also
sugges s ha de o es a ion om plan a ion is also mo ing om Suma a o Kaliman an and
Papua. While he main pu pose o his epo is o explain he decline since 2016-2017, we
discuss in Chap e 6 whe he ano he u n poin happened in 2022-2023.
The dis inc ion be ween de o es a ion and o es deg ada ion is impo an . TMF da a allow o
dis inguish be ween he ca ego ies "undis u bed opical mois o es ”, “deg aded”,
“de o es ed” and “ eg ow h”. Figu e 3 shows he TMF ends in de o es a ion and deg ada ion:
hey end o mo e oge he (posi i ely co ela ed, wi h a co ela ion coe icien o 0.64).
Fu he mo e, o bo h a iables we obse e a sha p decline a e 2015.
4 Annual de o es a ion da a ep esen s bo h andom luc ua ions (due o luc ua ions in ac o s such as wea he
end commodi y p ices) and medium-long e m ends. The choice o pe iods is he e o e a ma e o discussion.
We ook a conse a i e app oach and looked a he pe iod up o 2017, o make he analysis less sensi i e o andom
annual luc ua ions.
5 Nusan a a A las | 2023 Ma ks a Su ge in Palm Oil Expansion in Indonesia (nusan a a-a las.o g) See also: Palm
oil de o es a ion makes comeback in Indonesia a e decade-long slump (mongabay.com)

14
Figu e 2: De o es a ion (ha) in Indonesia, compa ing di e en da a se s.
Figu e 3: De o es a ion and o es deg ada ion (ha), 2000-2022. Sou ce: TMF da a.
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
De o es a ion da a se s, Indonesia
TMF-de o MBI KLHK Nusan a a A las GFW-p im o es
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
De o es a ion s. deg ada ion (TMF da a)
De o es a ion Deg ada ion
15
3.2 De o es a�on by loca�on
The change in de o es a ion is une en ac oss islands and p o inces, which makes i necessa y
o disagg ega e numbe s and iden i y which egions ha e d i en he na ional le el decline. We
use mainly wo da a se s, he TMF and MBI. KLHK da a a e no publicly a ailable a
subna ional le el. We also supplemen wi h some analysis using he Nusan a a A las da a.
3.2.1
Main islands
The changes in de o es a ion o e ime in he ou main o es islands o Indonesia a e depic ed
in Figu e 4. Gi en ha TMF de o es a ion is de ec ed om dis u bances in o es co e and
MBI ansi ions om land use ollowing o es loss, MBI likely does no accoun o i e-
ela ed loss. To accoun o his di e ence, we added i e loss om Tyuka ina e al. (2022) o
MBI o es con e sion and ind ha i e co ec ion makes he ends o e all mo e compa able,
wi h he excep ion o Sulawesi.
Acco ding o TMF da a, he la ges o es loss be ween 2000 and 2022 has occu ed in Suma a
(11.4 Mha), ollowed by Kaliman an (7.7 Mha) and Sulawesi (1.9 Mha). To unde s and he
no iceable gap be ween MBI and TMF da a o he la e island, we compa e bo h igu es wi h
es ima es om Sup ia na e al. (2020) who ind 2.1 Mha o o es loss be ween 2000 and 2017,
con i ming he TMF es ima es. Besides mining and oil palm, hey iden i y co n as a majo
commodi y behind he loss in Sulawesi, equen ly cul i a ed by smallholde s who use he
imp o ed o es access c ea ed by logging ac i i ies. A hypo hesis o he low de o es a ion
es ima es in MBI compa ed o TMF could hen be ha smallholde ac i i ies a e no ully
cap u ed in he de ec ion algo i hms.
The end analysis o he islands shows ha he decline s a ed ea lie in Suma a and
Kaliman an compa ed o Sulawesi and Papua6. Al hough o es i es played an impo an ole
in he peak yea s a ound 2015, especially on Kaliman an and Suma a, hey do no explain all
he obse ed inc ease, indica ing ha o he ac o s also we e impo an in explaining he su ge
and ollowing dec ease o de o es a ion.
The islands wi h he la ges decline in 2021-2022, compa ed o he base pe iod 2010-2017,
we e Sulawesi, wi h 81.2% educ ion in 2021-2022, ollowed by Kaliman an wi h 69.7%
educ ion, whe eas Suma a de o es a ion le els emained compa a i ely high wi h “only”
55.8% educ ion.
6 We use he e m “Papua” o he Indonesian pa o he island o New Guinea, also e e ed o as Indonesian
New Guina o Indonesian Papua. Simila ly, “Kaliman an” e e s o he Indonesian pa o he island o Bo neo.
16
Figu e 4: De o es a ion on main islands o di e en da a se s, 2000-2022. Sou ces: MBI, TMF, Tyuka ina e al.,
(2022).
The wo plo s shown in Figu e 5 pic u e he composi ion o de o es a ion ac oss he majo
islands, based on he MBI and TMF da a. The dominance o Suma a and Kaliman an is clea ,
while he changes in hei sha es a e no consis en be ween he wo igu es. Keeping in mind
he speci ics o he da a desc ibed in Sec ion 2.3, an explana ion o he di e ences possibly
lies in he ype o de o es ed o es , since TMF de o es a ion speci ically conce ns p e iously
undis u bed (old g ow h) o es whe eas MBI’s o es loss encompasses a much b oade o es
ca ego y.
Whe eas TMF da a depic s ha mos o he emaining undis u bed o es is los in Suma a,
MBI da a indica es Kaliman an as he majo con ibu o o o es loss acco ding o i s speci ic
o es ca ego isa ion. Despi e he di e ences, bo h da a se s show an inc easing sha e o
Suma a and declining sha e o Kaliman an in ecen yea s, sugges ing ha he de o es a ion
d op in Kaliman an was mo e p onounced han in Suma a.
17
Figu e 5: De o es a ion 2001-2022 by island. Sou ce: TMF and MBI da a.
3.2.2
P o inces
The decline in de o es a ion a ies g ea ly ac oss p o inces. Table 1 shows he decline in
p o inces wi h mo e han 1 Mha. Among he la ge de o es a ion p o inces du ing he pe iod
2010-2017 (> 100 000 ha), Riau and Kaliman an Ba a (Wes Kaliman an) had a decline o ca.
60% in 2021-2022, while Suma a Sela an (Sou h Suma a) and Kaliman an Tengah (Cen al
Kaliman an) had an e en la ge d op o 73% and 80%, espec i ely. Fu he mo e, we no e ha
Riau’s wo neighbou ing p o inces, Suma a Ba a (Wes Suma a) and Jambi had much
smalle educ ion o 18-20%. The la ges ela i e educ ions a e ound in Sulawesi U a a (No h
Sulawesi), Sulawesi Sela an (Sou h Sulawesi) and Maluku.
The Indonesian pa o he island o Papua, which was ecen ly di ided in o six p o inces bu
he e is agg ega ed in o one, has seen compa ably li le de o es a ion o e ime, excep o he
peak yea in 2015. Roughly 20% o TMF o es loss on Papua du ing 2015 was caused by i es
(see Figu e 4).
18
P o ince De o es a ion (ha)
Change (%) compa ed o
2010-17
Change (ha) compa ed o
2010-17
2010-17
2018-20
2021-22
2018-20
2021-22
2018-20
2021-22
Aceh 39 031
20 053
17 446
-49 %
-55 %
-18 977
-21 584
Bengkulu
18 246
12 408
8 732
-32 %
-52 %
-5 839
-9 514
Jambi
70 972
57 111
57 132
-20 %
-20 %
-13 861
-13 840
Kaliman an Ba a
163 724
77 957
69 154
-52 %
-58 %
-85 767
-94 570
Kaliman an Sela an
33 152
14 318
5 911
-57 %
-82 %
-18 834
-27 241
Kaliman an Tengah
134 797
50 688
26 810
-62 %
-80 %
-84 109
-107 987
Kaliman an Timu
94 667
47 846
27 483
-49 %
-71 %
-46 821
-67 183
Maluku 8 839
2 214
976
-75 %
-89 %
-6 624
-7 863
Maluku U a a
8 892
2 110
2 457
-76 %
-72 %
-6 783
-6 435
Papua
56 367
18 887
20 891
-66 %
-63 %
-37 480
-35 477
Riau
180 311
101 280
72 260
-44 %
-60 %
-79 031
-108 051
Sulawesi Ba a
13 636
7 191
4 769
-47 %
-65 %
-6 446
-8 868
Sulawesi Sela an
30 408
10 089
3 720
-67 %
-88 %
-20 319
-26 688
Sulawesi Tengah 40 609
15 433
8 527
-62 %
-79 %
-25 176
-32 082
Sulawesi Tengga a
20 092
7 622
3 746
-62 %
-81 %
-12 470
-16 345
Sulawesi U a a
8 879
3 945
1 142
-56 %
-87 %
-4 934
-7 737
Suma a Ba a
26 692
20 103
21 863
-25 %
-18 %
-6 589
-4 829
Suma a Sela an
144 629
64 738
39 453
-55 %
-73 %
-79 891
-105 175
Suma a U a a
71 846
42 010
33 088
-42 %
-54 %
-29 836
-38 757
Table 1: TMF de o es a ion in hec a es o p o inces wi h he highes o es co e (>1Mha). Sou ce: TMF da a.7
7 Fo con enience, and due o changes in p o incial bo de , Papua includes all he p o inces on he Indonesian pa o he island.

19
The absolu e educ ion shows a sligh ly di e en pic u e. Th ee p o inces ha e educed hei
de o es a ion by mo e han 100 000 ha: Riau, Kaliman an Tengah (Cen al Kaliman an) and
Suma a Sela an (Sou h Suma a). La ge-scale educ ions ha e also aken place in Kaliman an
Ba a (Wes Kaliman an) and Kaliman an Timu (Eas Kaliman an). The la e p o ince is an
in e es ing case, as i has been pa o he Wo ld Bank’s Fo es Ca bon Pa ne ship Facili y
(FCPF). Unde he FCPF, he Go e nmen o Indonesia and he Wo ld Bank ag ee o educe 22
million CO2 equi alen o he pe iod o 2019-2024 (Fo es Ca bon Pa ne ship Facili y,
2022).8 By Decembe 2020, Eas Kaliman an had achie ed emission educ ion by 30.8 million
ons o CO2 equi alen . Subjec o e i ica ion, he p o ince success ully me he ag eemen
wi hin 1.5 yea s o he i e-yea plan and could op o sell he addi ional 8.8 million ons o
CO2 equi alen (Fo es Ca bon Pa ne ship Facili y, 2022; G een Clima e Fund, 2022).
O e all, we see highly a ied pa e ns, wi h di e en ends among neighbou ing p o inces.
We no e a majo decline in se e al o he Sulawesi p o inces. The pa e n in Suma a is a ied,
wi h se e al p o inces ha ing small educ ions. In Kaliman an he pic u e is mo e uni o m,
wi h he ou majo p o inces ha ing signi ican educ ions (58-82%).
3.3 De o es a�on- isk commodi�es (di ec d i e s)
3.3.1
Land use ansi�ons
Gi en ha he MBI da a se displays he ansi ion be ween di e en land co e ca ego ies om
one yea o he nex , we use ha o unde s and he commodi ies ha d o e de o es a ion and
how hey changed o e he pas wo decades. The land co e ca ego ies encompass o es
o ma ion, oil palm, pulpwood, ice, mining, wa e , o he ag icul u al land and o he non-
ege a ed land (such as in as uc u e). Un o una ely, he disagg ega ion is a a high scale, and,
o example, ubbe does no ha e i s own ca ego y bu is classi ied as “o he ag icul u e”. The
classi ica ion o land co e in MBI da a allows o econs uc wha a ea o each ca ego y is
con e ed in o some hing else each yea and also in o wha i is con e ed. Figu e 6 shows such
lows o he ou main islands, a e aged o e he ime pe iods 2001-2009, 2010-2017 and
2018-2022. (NB: No e he di e en scales on he y-axis.) The co esponding igu es a e
p esen ed in Table 2.
Fo all islands, wi h he excep ion o Sulawesi, we obse e a signi ican decline in he o al
land use ansi ions om he 2010-17 o he 2018-2022 pe iod. Fo Suma a, his is pa o a
longe end (i.e., a decline also om he 2001-2009 pe iod).
A second obse a ion is ha in Kaliman an and Papua, o es is he main “supplie ” o new
land in he land use ansi ions, while he ca ego y “O he ag icul u e” is a majo supplie o
land use ansi ions in Sulawesi and e en mo e so Suma a.
8 The Emission Reduc ions Paymen Ag eemen is a ailable a he ollowing link:
h ps://www. o es ca bonpa ne ship.o g/sys em/ iles/documen s/FCPF%20Ca bon%20Fund%20ERPA%20T an
che%20A%20&%20B.pd
20
A hi d obse a ion, we obse e a change in he composi ion o pos - o es land uses, as we
summa ize in sec ion 3.4.
Figu e 6: Land use ansi ions in he majo islands. Sou ce: MBI da a.
21
Table 2: Pos - o es land uses. Sou ce: MBI da a.
3.3.2
Fo es enc oachmen ac o
Fo es loss due o he expansion o he cul i a ion a ea used o ag icul u al commodi ies can
be decomposed in o wo ac o s:
o es loss o c op ≡ o al inc ease in a ea o c op * o es enc oachmen ac o o c op
whe e he “ o es enc oachmen ac o ” is de ined as he sha e o new c opland ha is con e ed
om o es . While some ac o s, such as c op p ices, de e mine he o e all demand o new
c opland, o he ac o s may in luence he enc oachmen ac o mo e di ec ly, such as p oduc
ce i ica ion and mo a o iums. On he land supply side, he sca ci y o o es will ma e bo h
o decisions on whe he o in ensi y (inc ease yield) o ex ensi y (inc ease land a ea), as well
as he ype o land o expand on (i an ex ensi ica ion s a egy is chosen).
Table 3 p esen s he enc oachmen ac o s o oil palm and he ca ego y “O he ag icul u e”,
o di e en island and ime pe iods. Fo oil palm, he enc oachmen ac o a ies signi ican ly
ac oss islands. I has since 2010 emained abo e 90% in Papua, while i is lowe in Kaliman an
and Sulawesi, and he lowes in Suma a. The enc oachmen ac o also d opped signi ican ly
o Suma a. Howe e , a majo d op in he ex en o new oil palm in 2018-2020 in Suma a
made he agg ega e enc oachmen ac o o Indonesia inc ease in his pe iod (highe sha e,
while declining again in 2021-2022.
Island
Ca ego y
2001-09
2010-17
2018-20
2021-22
2001-09
2018-20
2021-22
(ha)
(ha)
(ha)
(ha)
(pc . o
2010-17)
(pc . o
2010-17)
(pc . o
2010-17)
Kaliman an
Mining
969
3 258
4 339
4 844
29.7
133.2
148.7
Oil palm
74 144
156 770
68 077
39 867
47.3
43.4
25.4
O he ag .
11 367
24 662
22 256
12 574
46.1
90.3
51.0
Pulpwood
8 812
22 324
18 914
4 507
39.5
84.7
20.2
Papua
Mining
5
1
1
4
973.1
109.6
732.7
Oil palm
1 475
14 506
17 732
4 988
10.2
122.2
34.4
O he ag .
874
2 238
2 701
1 252
39.1
120.7
55.9
Pulpwood
67
317
510
242
21.1
161.2
76.5
Sulawesi
Mining
58
787
712
2 713
7.4
90.5
344.9
Oil palm
1 716
5 949
936
4 090
28.9
15.7
68.7
O he ag .
1 900
1 961
3 174
1 674
96.9
161.9
85.4
Suma a
Mining
180
304
292
656
59.1
95.9
215.7
Oil palm
64 270
78 815
6 677
30 204
81.6
8.5
38.3
O he ag .
105 990
86 237
50 574
31 672
122.9
58.7
36.7
Pulpwood
48 288
36 559
3 634
619
132.1
9.9
1.7
To al
Mining
1 212
4 350
5 343
8 217
27.9
122.8
188.9
Oil palm
141 605
256 041
93 423
79 149
55.3
36.5
30.9
O he ag .
120 131
115 098
78 705
47 171
104.4
68.4
41.0
Pulpwood
57 166
59 200
23 058
5 368
96.6
39.0
9.1
22
Oil palm
2001-2009
2010-2017
2018-2020
2021-2022
Kaliman an
72%
76%
76%
63%
Papua
68%
91%
93%
92%
Sulawesi
36%
75%
65%
53%
Suma a
33%
40%
26%
18%
Indonesia
46%
60%
69%
9
32%
O he
ag icul u e
2001-2009
2010-2017
2018-2020
2021-2022
Kaliman an
40%
60%
51%
55%
Papua
56%
71%
72%
69%
Sulawesi
8%
12%
29%
28%
Suma a
72%
70%
50%
53%
Indonesia
50%
55%
45%
45%
Table 3: Fo es enc oachmen ac o s o oil palm and “o he ag icul u e”. Sou ce: MBI da a.
We also obse e a decline in he enc oachmen ac o o “O he ag icul u e” a e 2017/2018,
d i en by a decline in bo h Kaliman an and Suma a. The p o incial di e ences a e smalle
han o oil palm.
The Nusan a a A las da a o e s one addi ional di ec d i e o de o es a ion, namely o es
con e sion o pulp, and epo h ee pos - o es land uses: oil palm (spli be ween smallholde
and indus ial), indus ial pulp, and o he land uses. The enc oachmen ac o s o oil palm o
he h ee p o inces wi h he highes de o es a ion in 2010-2017 in Suma a (Riau, Jambi and
Sou h Suma a) and Kaliman an (Wes , Eas and Cen al Kaliman an), as well as he o e all o
Indonesia, a e epo ed in Table 4.
The absolu e numbe s a e no compa able as he Nusan a a A las da a p esen ed he e only
include he h ee la ges “de o es a ion p o inces” on each island, in addi ion o di e ences in
de ini ions and aw da a and p ocessing. Ye he gene ally much lowe enc oachmen ac o s
o palm oil is no able o he Nusan a a A las da a.10
Howe e , he main s o y eme ging is simila o he wo da a se s. Compa ed o he p e ious
pe iod (2010-2017), o al land expansion o oil palm declined subs an ially in 2018-2022, by
a leas 60 % depending on island and da a se . Hence o Indonesia as a whole, he main cause
o educed expansion o oil palm in o o es was he o e all decline in he expansion o oil
palm a ea. In Suma a, is howe e , an excep ion: he educed o es loss due o oil palm was
due o a decline in he o es enc oachmen ac o .
9 The inc ease is due o a shi in he composi ion o oil palm d i en de o es a ion be ween he islands, wi h
Suma a (low enc oachmen ac o ) educing i s sha e.
10 We ha e no in es iga ed u he he easons o he di e ence, beyond no ing ha di e en de ini ions, aw
da a and p ocedu es a e used in he wo da a se s.
29
• Mo a o ium map has
been e ised se e al
imes.
coo dina ion wi h
o he agencies wi h
di e en in e es , and
he e a e some
excep ions, such as
Na ional S a egic
P og ammes.
he huge challenges o
align maps o
di e en minis ies
and na ional agencies.
I also igge s
de o es a ion ou side
mo a o ium a ea. I
also has exemp ions
o exis ing pe mi s
and na ional s a egic
in e es s.
Mo a o ium oil palm
pe mi s (2018)
• Simula ion shows
po en ial impac o
educe de o es a ion.
•
No known
s udy on
he ac ual impac .
• I p o ides a spa ial
es ic ion bu only
applicable o new
pe mi s.
•
I equi es
coo dina ion be ween
au ho i ies o s a e
o es a eas and a eas
o o he uses, and
be ween na ional and
subna ional
go e nmen s.
•
Resolu ion o he oil
palm enc oachmen
in o s a e o es is
cap u ed by he Job
C ea ion Law,
ocusing mo e wi h
adminis a i e
p ocedu es.
• Low - mode a e
impac (low
e idence)
. While i
aims o ake a simila
pa hway as he
p ima y o es and
pea land mo a o ium,
coo dina ion cos is
high as i in ol es
subna ional
go e nmen and palm
oil companies, which
gene ally a e no
willing o sha e hei
spa ial da a.
Subna ional
go e nmen s ha e
shown hei
willingness o e oke
pe mi s.
Fo es managemen uni
(KPH)
• KPHs has he
po en ial o wo k as an
in e media y among
global, na ional, and
local in e es s in
educing
de o es a ion.
•
KPHs ace capaci y
challenges and
educed oles a e he
Job C ea ion Law.
•
KPHs ace challenge
o deal wi h local
con lic s
• Fo es managemen
uni p o ides on- he-
g ound suppo o
policy
implemen a ion.
•
They ace challenges
in budge ing, s a ing,
and en ep eneu ship.
• Low impac (medium
e idence)
. While
KPHs as o ganiza ion
ha e been o med,
hey lack capaci y o
implemen hei
unc ions.
Pea land p o ec ion and
es o a ion
• Se ious a en ion om
he Go e nmen o
Indonesia esp. a e
2015 i e e en .
•
C ea ion o Pea land
Res o a ion Agency
and egula o y
amewo k on
pea land p o ec ion.
•
Canal blocking as a
cos -e ec i e
pea land es o a ion
•
Mo e p e en i e
measu es needed.
• P o ec ing and
es o ing pea lands
educe emissions
signi ican ly.
•
Go e nmen o
Indonesia issued
Regula ions on
pea land p o ec ion,
es ablished Pea land
Res o a ion Agency,
and p io i ize se e al
p o inces o pea land
es o a ion ac i i ies.
• Medium impac
(medium-high
e idence). Pea land
es o a ion could
educe i es, which
e en ually educe
i e-d i en
de o es a ion.

30
Social o es y
• Po en ial educ ion in
illage o es and
p oduc ion schemes
•
Bu o es loss a he
s a ing poin was
high
• Show inc eased o es
co e in Jambi and
Wes Suma a
•
Mainly h ough he
sense o owne ship
and CSO acili a ion
• Low impac (medium
e idence). Some
sca e ed success
s o ies, bu lack o
scale.
Commodi y ce i ica ion
• Pe cep ion ha
de o es a ion has
educed wi h he
in oduc ion o
SVLK.
•
Di icul o assess he
impac o ISPO.
• SVLK equi es ac o s
o ha e good business
p ocess, including
pu chase and sales
eco ds.
•
The eco ds include
he o igin o imbe .
• Low impac (low
e idence).
SVLK is
pe cei ed o ha e
con ibu ed o educe
de o es a ion. ISPO
does no p e en
de o es a ion.
Rigo ous s udies a e
equi ed o assess
ac ual impac s o
commodi y
ce i ica ion on
de o es a ion.
Resul s-based paymen
• Unde he FCPF, Eas
Kaliman an has
educed emission
ea lie han p ojec ed.
•
Na ional le el RBP
(No way, GCF) ha d
o assess
• I equi es a ailabili y
o da a and p esence
o a unc ioning
go e nmen -led
mul is akeholde
p ocess
•
RBP been “an icing on
he cake”.
• Medium impac (low-
medium e idence).
FCPF p og am in Eas
Kaliman an has
p o ed o be an
achie emen . The
challenge is o scale
ou o o he p o inces.
Na ional le el RBP
one
among se e al
mo i a ions o policy
e o ms.
Law en o cemen
• Ini ially ocus on
enc oachmen , illegal
logging, illegal
wildli e ade, and
i es
•
Use mul idoo
app oach
•
Low de e en e ec s
and no losses ha e
been es o ed
• S eng hened law
en o cemen , and he
use o mul idoo
app oach.
•
An inc eased numbe
o ci il cou s o land
and o es i e cases.
•
Fines do no
ma e ialize.
• Low impac (medium
e idence). While
en o cemen e o s
ha e been
acknowledged, hey
gi e low de e en
e ec s and do no
e u n he loss.
In eg a ed i e
managemen
• See pea land
es o a ion
• Commi men o look
o pe manen
solu ions o i es.
•
Inc eased
coo dina ion among
na ional go e nmen
agencies
•
De elopmen o
moni o ing sys ems
(i.e., Sipongi)
• Medium impac (high
e idence). Fi e
p e en ion and
supp ession migh
ha e con ibu ed o
he educed i e-
d i en de o es a ion.
Table 6: O e iew o majo public policies aimed a o es conse a ion.
4.1.1
Mo a o ium o new pe mi s
The e a e wo majo policies ela ed o land alloca ion ha a e conside ed o ha e p o ided
majo con ibu ions o he decline o de o es a ion. The i s is he mo a o ium o pe mi s on
p ima y o es s and pea land, which s a ed in 2011. The hen-P esiden Susilo Bambang
31
Yudhoyono signed he P esiden ial Ins uc ion 10 o 2011 on 23. May 2011. The P esiden
ins uc ed o ake he necessa y s eps o suppo he pos ponemen o issuing new licences o
p ima y na u al o es and pea land in conse a ion o es s, p o ec ed o es , p oduc ion o es
( es ic ed p oduc ion o es , egula pe manen p oduc ion o es , con e ible p oduc ion
o es ) and a eas o o he uses (A ea Penggunaan Lain, APL). The GoI c ea ed he indica i e
mo a o ium map (known by i s Indonesian abb e ia ion PIPPIB), which is upda ed e e y six
mon hs. P esiden Joko Widodo made he mo a o ium pe manen by signing he P esiden ial
Ins uc ion 5 o 2019 on 7. Augus 2019, aiming o p o ec 66.2 million ha o p ima y o es s
and pea lands (MoEF, 2022). The a ea was abou 3 million ha lowe han he ini ial PIPPIB
igu e o 69.1 million. One in e iewee s essed ha he educ ion does no e lec he loss o
o es , bu a he he adjus men s o pe mi s da a ac oss minis ies and le els o go e nmen s
ha ook place be ween 2011 and 2019 when he mo a o ium was made pe manen . The
adjus men s we e conduc ed o ind and e i y exis ing pe mi s and exclude hem om he
mo a o ium map.
Acco ding o some esou ce pe sons, he mo a o ium wo ks in andem wi h he One map policy
ha was ini ially de eloped du ing M . Yudhoyono’s adminis a ion. Consis en wi h he One
map policy’s objec i es, he mo a o ium’s ini ial ac i i y was o conduc in en o y o p ima y
o es s and pea lands bo h inside and ou side s a e o es s. Since hese a eas a e no only unde
he managemen o he Minis y o (En i onmen and) Fo es y, i ook se e al yea s be o e he
synch oniza ion p ocess could be comple ed (in e iew 32).
S udies on he impac o he logging and pea land mo a o ium show ha he policy may ha e
educed de o es a ion (Busch e al., 2015; Chen e al., 2019; G oom e al., 2022). Busch e al.,
(2015) simula e using 2000-2010 da a, and concluded ha should he mo a o ium ha e s a ed
in 2000, i would ha e been able o educe he de o es a ion by 153–399 000 ha. Conside ing
leakage (geog aphic displacemen o de o es a ion o loca ions no co e ed by he mo a o ium),
he educ ion would ha e been 116–305 000 ha. Ano he s udy, using 2001-2017 da a, indica ed
ha he e was a signi ican educ ion o o es loss on he a eas unde mo a o ium, and
concessions unde mo a o ium we e shown o ha e signi ican ly lowe o es loss han hose
ou side he mo a o ium a eas (Chen e al., 2019). A hi d s udy inds a small di e ence o
d yland o es in o es loss be ween a eas unde and ou side mo a o ium a eas, al hough no
di e ence in we lands (G oom e al., 2022). O he s claim ha i e occu ences ha e been lowe
on he a eas unde mo a o ium (Lee, 2023, in e iew 28, 32).
In con as , o he s claim ha de o es a ion ends o inc ease in mo a o ium a eas, whe e he
annual de o es a ion was 97 000 ha in 2005-2011 and inc eased o 137 000 ha in 2012-2018
(G eenpeace Indonesia, 2019). O he s ha e poin ed o he isk o de o es a ion ou side he a eas
unde he mo a o ium (Leij en e al., 2021; Suwa no e al., 2018). The e a e also gene al
conce ns ha some aspec s make he mo a o ium may be less e ec i e. The PIPPIB ha e been
adjus ed se e al imes o accommoda e he excep ions made explici in he p esiden ial
ins uc ions, which lies lowe a he hie a chy o Indonesia’s legisla ion (G eenpeace Indonesia,
2019; in e iew 15, 23). As such, he e is no penal ies i he ins uc ion is neglec ed. Mo eo e ,
32
since some o he p ima y o es s and pea lands a e loca ed ou side he s a e o es , he PIPPIB
map mus be de eloped and synch onized among he Minis y o En i onmen and Fo es y,
Na ional Land Agency, and o he na ional agencies. Finally, he mo a o ium con ains some
excep ions, such as exis ing pe mi s and a eas designa ed as na ional s a egic p og ammes
(Es he ina & Sedayu, 2024).
The second main policy in his ca ego y is he mo a o ium o new oil palm plan a ion pe mi s.
On 19. Sep embe 2018, P esiden Widodo signed he P esiden ial Ins uc ion 8 o 2018 on he
mo a o ium and e alua ion o licensing o oil palm and imp o emen o oil palm plan a ion
p oduc i i y. The mo a o ium aimed o imp o e he go e nance o he sus ainable palm oil
p oduc ion in Indonesia and o esol e he p oblem o oil palm a eas inside s a e o es s and
associa ed con lic s. One majo a ea was o cla i y which agency should be designa ed as he
da a manage o he oil palm, and he Di ec o a e Gene al o Es a e C ops o he Minis y o
Ag icul u e was assigned ha ole. Mo e coo dina ion was equi ed since he da a on land
alloca ion, land use pe mi , and plan a ion business pe mi a e managed by di e en le els o
go e nmen agencies (in e iew 32). The mo a o ium was e ec i e om 2018 un il 2021.
The palm oil mo a o ium was pa o a la ge e o o sol e challenges on he enc oachmen
o oil palm plan a ions in o he s a e o es a eas, which he GoI esponded by issuing he
P esiden ial Regula ion 88 o 2017 on he esolu ion o land con ol inside he s a e o es a eas.
Unde he Job C ea ion law 6 o 202314, he 2017 Regula ion was eplaced by he P esiden ial
Regula ion 62 o 2023 on he accele a ion o he implemen a ion o ag a ian e o m. The 2023
Law con ains wo a icles ha p o ide he legal basis o palm oil plan a ions loca ed in he
s a e o es zone, a leas empo a ily (Mu aqien, 2023; Nababan, 2023). The a icle says ha
e e y pe son who ca ies ou business ac i i ies ha ha e been es ablished and ha e pe mi s in
a o es a ea be o e he enac men o his Law and who has no ul illed he equi emen s in
acco dance wi h he p o isions o s a u o y egula ions in he o es y sec o , is obliged o
comple e he equi emen s no la e han h ee yea s since his Law came in o o ce (a icle
110a). NGOs a e pa icula ly conce ned abou he a icle because allowing palm oil companies
in he s a e o es a eas could back i e he p og ess made o esol e he oil palm enc oachmen
in o he s a e o es a eas (Anonymous, 2023; Nu hadi Sucahyo, 2023; Si i Sadida Ha syah,
2020; in e iew 3).
Se e al NGOs aised conce ns abou he decision o no ex end he mo a o ium because hey
ha e seen some ea ly ou comes o he mo a o ium, al hough se e al a eas need imp o emen s,
such as law en o cemen (Madani Be kelanju an, 2021). In addi ion, a leas in Eas
Kaliman an, he P esiden ial Ins uc ion is used as a guidance o p o incial go e nmen o so
ou issues ela ed o palm oil land and pe mi and o de elop sus ainable palm oil egula ions
a he p o incial le el (in e iew 13, 21). While NGOs we e la gely conce ned abou he palm
14 Job C ea ion Law was issued as Law 11 o 2020 on No embe 2, 2020. The Cons i u ional Cou decided ha
he 2020 Law was condi ionally uncons i u ional. On No embe 3, 2021m, he Cons i u ional Cou , h ough he
Decision No.91/PUU-XVIII/2020 ga e he Go e nmen o Indonesia and he Pa liamen wo yea s o e ise he
Law. On Decembe 30, 2022, he Go e nmen o Indonesia issued he Go e nmen Regula ion in lieu o Law
(Pe pu) 2 o 2022, which was li ed as Law 6 o 2023.
33
oil pe mi mo a o ium ending in 2021, i was a gued ha i ended because he ollow up o
esolu ion o he oil palm pe mi issue was in eg a ed in o he Job C ea ion Law 6 o 2023
(in e iew 28). I was epo ed ha mo e han 1 000 companies ha e plan a ions loca ed in he
s a e o es a ea (CNN Indonesia, 2023). While s udies on he ac ual impac s o he Law on
de o es a ion a e no a ailable (pa ly due o he Law being con es ed and e-issued in 2023),
analyses poin o se e al implica ions o he Law on o es go e nance and de o es a ion. Fo
example, he e a e conce ns ha he Law has elaxed he need o ex-an e en i onmen al impac
assessmen , cen alized he app o al and moni o ing p ocesses, and weakening s ic liabili y
s ipula ions (e.g., Sembi ing e al., 2020). In addi ion, he Law has e oked he need o main ain
a minimum o 30% o wa e sheds o island (Suna o e al., 2021).
S udies e alua ing he impac s o he palm oil mo a o ium on educing de o es a ion a e no
a ailable. One s udy, howe e , used a simula ion o o ecas ha he la ge-scale oil palm
mo a o ium could educe de o es a ion by 28% and cu g eenhouse gas emissions by 16%
compa ed o a no-policy scena io o he pe iod o 2010-2030 (Mosnie e al., 2017). Such
simula ion s udies a e use ul o demons a e he po en ial bu may also ail o inco po a e
se e al implemen a ion hu dles.
4.1.2
Fo es and pea land managemen
Fo es managemen uni s
Some in e iewees a gue ha he es ablishmen o Fo es Managemen Uni s (Kesa uan
Pengelolaan Hu an, KPH) is a policy ha con ibu ed signi ican ly o educed de o es a ion.
While he idea o KPHs da es back o he p e-2000 e a, i gained momen um a e he issuance
o he Go e nmen Regula ion 6 o 2007 (in e iews 3, 17). Acco ding o Indonesian o es y
egula ions, KPH was seen as a p e equisi e o achie e sus ainable o es managemen (Sahide
e al., 2016). KPH was e en seen as a esponse o ackle de o es a ion and o es deg ada ion
(Ramadhan e al., 2023). KPHs we e es ablished in 2009 a e he issuance o he Minis e o
Fo es y Regula ion 6 o 2009 on he es ablishmen o Fo es Managemen Uni s, and Minis e
o Fo es y Regula ion 51 o 2010 on he de e mina ion o KPH a eas h oughou Indonesia
and he es ablishmen o model KPHs. KPH has become one o he go e nmen p og ammes
wi h la ge dono suppo , including he Ge man go e nmen (Ma ianne Schol e, 2019;
in e iew 17). KPH aims o achie e sus ainable o es managemen , and in ha way also educe
he in luence o palm oil as a d i e o de o es a ion (Sahide e al., 2016). KPH has he po en ial
o play an impo an ole as in e media ies o achie e REDD+ a ge s, due o i s capaci y o
connec na ional and in e na ional ac o s and local eali ies (Bae e al., 2014; Kim e al., 2016).
Despi e he po en ial and s ong dono suppo , KPHs would s ill need ime o achie e i s
in ended ou comes. Fi s , KPHs a e no equipped wi h su icien human esou ces and budge
o he ope a ions, including he engagemen wi h communi ies li ing in and a ound he
managemen uni s (Bae e al., 2014; Kim e al., 2016; Schol e, 2019). Second, in he beginning
KPH was designed as decen alized ield-le el o es managemen uni s, whe e hey could
ope a e as execu o o o es managemen p og ams, including making con ac wi h hi d
pa ies on ce ain business aspec s. Howe e , unde he 2023 Job C ea ion Law, he ole o
34
KPH was educed o ocus only on acili a ion wi hou ha ing execu i e decision powe
(Nug oho e al., 2023; Ramadhan e al., 2023). One implica ion is he educed budge o KPHs,
as hey a e mo e dependen on wo king wi h o he go e nmen agencies such as he Wa e shed
Managemen Agency (Balai Pengelolaan Dae ah Ali an Sungai, BPDAS) and o he agencies
ha ha e ac i i ies and p og ams loca ed on a eas unde he acili a ion o he KPHs. Thi d,
being loca ed a he si e le el, KPHs o en ha e o alloca e esou ces and ime o manage and
sol e he issues ela ed o land enu e and con lic s. Cla i ica ion on land bounda y and enu e,
including owne ship, is equen ly an issue in KPH a eas (Budiningsih e al., 2022; Ichsan e
al., 2021).
Pea land ehabili a ion and es o a ion
Pea land has been well- ecognized as a majo pool o ca bon. When con e ed o ag icul u e,
i eleases la ge amoun s o ca bon (Ab ams e al., 2016; Ansa i, 2011; Dohong e al., 2018). A
majo policy agenda o he GoI, a e he huge i es in 2015, was o p o ec he coun y’s
pea lands. The agenda consis s o es ablishing an o ganiza ion ha wo ks speci ically on
pea land es o a ion, c ea ing a egula o y amewo k on pea land p o ec ion, and unde ake
na ional and in e na ional collabo a ions on pea land es o a ion (Nug oho e al., 2023).
The GoI es ablished he Pea land Res o a ion Agency (Badan Res o asi Gambu , BRG) in
2016. The manda e o he Agency was ex ended o include mang o e in 2021, hence he name
becomes Pea land and Mang o e Res o a ion Agency (Badan Res o asi Gambu dan
Mang o e, BRGM). The GoI adop s he 3R ( ewe ing, e ege a ion, and e i aliza ion)
app oach o pea land es o a ion. Rewe ing ocuses on ewe ing pea lands ha ha e been
d ained by building canal blocking. Re ege a ion ocuses on e o s o inc ease pea land
ege a ion co e . Re i aliza ion e e s o s eng hen he capaci y o communi ies o g ass- oo
ins i u ions, mainly a he illage le el (Badan Res o asi Gambu dan Mang o e, 2023). Some
c i ics, howe e , men ioned ha he 3R app oach lack p e en i e measu es such as Reduc ion
o i e (hence 4R) (Ha ison e al., 2020) and Repo ing and moni o ing (5R) (Te zano e al.,
2022).
In he same yea , he GoI also issued Go e nmen Regula ion 57 o 2016 on pea land
ecosys ems p o ec ion and managemen . Unde his amewo k, he GoI use pea land
hyd ological uni (Kesa uan Hid ologis Gambu , KHG) ha de ines pea land managemen
a eas in o cul i a ion and p o ec ion pu poses. KHG is expec ed o hold he expansion o
plan a ions, mainly oil palm (in e iew 23). The GoI has es ablished 865 KHGs co e ing 24.6
million ha. BRGM ocuses i s ac i i ies in p io i y p o inces, which consis o 522 KHGs
co e ing 12.9 million ha (Badan Res o asi Gambu dan Mang o e, 2023). The Minis y o
En i onmen and Fo es y also has s eng hened i s pea land- ela ed uni s, by, o example,
building se e al in o ma ion sys ems ha moni o i es (called Sipongi) and wa e able o
pea land a eas (Sima ag) (in e iew 28).
In e ms o es o a ion ac i i ies, BRGM collabo a ed wi h a ious s akeholde s. They buil
7,697 canal blockings in 746 illages o he se en p io i y p o inces. BRGM also de eloped
2,147 hec a es o e ege a ion plo s. Fo he e i aliza ion o li elihoods, BRGM has

35
es ablished 1,246 packages o land-based, wa e -based, and ecosys em se ices-based
ac i i ies. Du ing 2020-2021, he numbe o ho spo s in BRGM wo k a ea d ops om 97 o 71,
which is associa ed wi h he d op o bu ned a ea om 3,651 ha o 313 ha (Badan Res o asi
Gambu dan Mang o e, 2023). In o al, BRGM is manda ed o es o e 1.2 million hec a es o
deg aded pea lands. By 2023, BRGM epo ed o ha e es o ed nea ly 830,000 hec a es
h ough ewe ing and e ege a ion (Badan Res o asi Gambu dan Mang o e, 2024). Simila ly,
e iews on pea land es o a ion in Indonesia shows he posi i e e ec o canal blocking as a
ewe ing ac i i y o educe i es on pea land, and subsequen ly educe pea land co e loss,
making i a cos -e ec i e measu e o comba pea land i es (Kiely e al., 2021; Yuwa i e al.,
2021).
Social o es y
While social o es y has been one o he p io i y agendas o he Minis y o (En i onmen and)
Fo es y a leas since M . Yudhoyono’s adminis a ion, e o s o aise he p o ile o social
o es y has been s eng hened du ing he Widodo p esidency. The adminis a ion se s ou a
a ge o alloca e 12.7 million hec a es o s a e o es s o social o es y, equi alen o abou
10% o he o al a eas o s a e o es s. By 2022, he Minis y o En i onmen and Fo es y has
issued o es ablished social o es y ag eemen o 5.3 million ha (Kemen e ian Lingkungan
Hidup dan Kehu anan, 2023). One highligh is he cla i ica ion o schemes ha all as social
o es y. The minis y issued a egula ion ha de ines he di e en schemes o social o es y,
ha is indigenous o cus oma y o es (hu an ada ), communi y o es y (hu an
kemasya aka an), smallholde imbe plan a ion (hu an anaman akya ), illage o es (hu an
desa) and o es y and en i onmen al pa ne ship (kemi aan lingkungan). Social o es y has
a la ge po en ial o achie ing educed de o es a ion, inso a i was a gued ha o es
ehabili a ion h ough social o es y would be able o mee Indonesia’s a ge o inc easing
ca bon seques a ion (in e iew 28).
Village o es has he po en ial o educe de o es a ion (Gunawan e al., 2022; San ika e al.,
2017, 2019; Wahyu e al., 2020). Village o es s in Suma a and Kaliman an ha e a oided
de o es a ion, al hough in he longe e m he pe o mance depends on he ype o o es
unc ion. Village o es educes de o es a ion on a eas alloca ed o wa e shed p o ec ion and
limi ed imbe ex ac ion (Meijaa d, 2017; San ika e al., 2017). Howe e , an analysis o h ee
schemes - illage o es s, communi y o es y, and communi y imbe plan a ion – ha co e
2.4 million ha ound ha schemes ha aim a conse a ion end o inc ease o es loss, and
hese aimed a p oduc ion end o educe de o es a ion, al hough he educ ions came om an
ini ially highe o es loss (K aus e al., 2021).
The pe o mance o social o es y also depends on s ong suppo om CSOs. In Jambi and
Wes Suma a, one analysis ound ha o es co e inc eased a e he in oduc ion o a social
o es y scheme. While he o es co e unde social o es y a eas la ge eco e h ough na u al
succession, i was a gued ha social o es y inc eases sense o owne ship and esponsibili y
o he ag eemen holde s. They conduc pa ol and adop ag o o es y sys ems in he a eas
alloca ed o cul i a ion (Yola Sas a, 2024; in e iew 7). While he cases in Jambi and Wes
36
Suma a gi e some hope o he po en ial o he social o es y in educing ne de o es a ion,
social o es y pe mi s ha e been acing signi ican challenges in e ms o lawed land
adminis a ion p ocesses, con lic ing in e es s among local ac o s, and lack o ins i u ional
engagemen beyond pe mi ing p ocess (Fishe e al., 2018). In addi ion, mo e small pa ches o
o es s unde social o es y could lead o o es agmen a ion (Gunawan e al., 2022). I is
he e o e oo ea ly o conclude on he na ionwide impac s o hese ini ia i es.
4.1.3
Manda o y e ifica�on and ce �fica�on
The e a e wo main p oduc s ha a e co e ed by manda o y e i ica ion o ce i ica ion: imbe
and palm oil. Timbe is egula ed by he Timbe Legali y and Sus ainabili y Ve i ica ion
(SVLK). Fo imbe concessions, SVLK is supposed o be a s epping s one o achie e
Sus ainable P oduc ion Fo es Managemen (PHPL) (Kosa e al., 2019). The SVLK is
compa ible wi h he EU Fo es Law En o cemen Go e nance and T ade (FLEGT), and i
became he i s scheme in he wo ld o issue FLEGT licenses (2016). Acco ding o he Minis y
o En i onmen and Fo es y’s In o ma ion Sys em on Legali y and Sus ainabili y (known as
SILK), he e a e 3,983 SVLK-ce i ied managemen uni s, bo h ups eam and downs eam, by
Ap il 2024.
The second commodi y is palm oil. Indonesia is he i s coun y ha c ea ed manda o y
sus ainabili y ce i ica ion o palm oil. The Indonesian Sus ainable Palm Oil (ISPO) was
c ea ed in 2011 and has since been s eng hened bo h in e ms o subs ance and legal backing.
In e ms o subs ance, ISPO was e ised in 2015 and 2020. ISPO has also been legally
s eng hened om a minis e ial egula ion o a p esiden ial egula ion. By 2023, ISPO co e ed
4.2 million ha, o which 3.9 million ha we e la ge-scale plan a ions. The e a e 707 ce i ied
companies and 79 smallholde s (An a a, 2024). These igu es ansla e o app oxima ely 25%
o he o al oil palm a ea. 31% o he o al oil palm plan a ion companies being ISPO-ce i ied,
while he sha e o smallholde s is miniscule (79 among li e ally millions o small palm oil
p oduce s).
The de o es a ion educing e ec o bo h schemes emain unde s udied. One s udy shows ha
ac o s in Indonesia pe cei ed SVLK o con ibu e o educed de o es a ion, mainly h ough
be e implemen a ion o o es managemen plan and he educ ion o illegal logging
(Goe ghebue e al., 2023; T opical Fo es Alliance & LPEM Uni e si as Indonesia, 2022).
Ano he possible impac channel would be ha ha ing an SVLK ce i ica e would mean he
aw ma e ials come om clea and eco ded sou ces which ollow he egula ion o he
Minis y o En i onmen and Fo es y (An a a, 2020). In he case o ISPO, any impac s mus
also be seen in connec ion wi h p i a e sus ainabili y commi men o pledges. The e a e
conce ns, howe e , ha ce i ied companies do no necessa ily ca y ou ac i i ies ha conse e
o es s and comply o he na ional egula ion. An example is a G eenpeace epo which shows
ha o e 200 ISPO-ce i ied companies allegedly enc oach s a e o es and he e o e pa o
he p oblems being add essed by he mo a o ium o palm oil pe mi s (A uming yas, 2021;
G eenpeace Indonesia, 2021).
37
4.1.4
Resul s-based paymen
One o he mi iga ion s a egies o he Go e nmen o Indonesia (GoI) is o es ablish mul i-
bila e alism, ha is, se e al bila e al ela ions unde mul ila e al se ings (Leony Au o a, 2012).
One mechanism o bila e al ag eemen is esul s-based paymen s (RBP) as pa o mul ila e al
amewo ks (Dwisa io, 2021). RBP can be made o bo h he na ional and subna ional le els.
A majo example o a na ional le el RBP is he Le e o In en be ween Indonesia and No way
in 2010, whe eby No way commi ed o pay USD 1 billion o Indonesia o e i iable emission
educ ions15. A e discon en and disag eemen s on se e al issues (including delayed
paymen s), Indonesia e mina ed he ag eemen in Sep embe 2021 (Jong, 2021b). A yea la e ,
in Sep embe 2022, howe e , Indonesia and No way ag eed o a new and modi ied ag eemen ,
whe e No way would pay Indonesia o keep he o es s anding, while s ill honou ing he
ou s anding paymen om he p e ious ag eemen (Jong, 2022). The i s RBP paymen o
USD 56 million was made in 2022, o emissions educ ion achie ed in 2016-2017. In o al,
paymen s o USD 156 million ha e been made in 2022-2024 o he h ee o es yea s 2016-
2019.
The G een Clima e Fund (GCF) also app o ed in 2020 a p ojec wo h USD 103.8 million,
based on emissions educ ions achie ed in he pe iod 2014-2016. The money was disbu sed in
2021, wi h UNDP as he acc edi ed en i y, and a e o be used “ o in es in ac i i ies ha suppo
he implemen a ion o he coun y’s na ional REDD+ ac ion s a egy (STRANAS). ... This
includes wo king wi h key agencies a he na ional, p o incial, and local le els o s eng hen
he de elopmen , coo dina ion, and implemen a ion o Indonesia’s o e all REDD+
a chi ec u e, as well as p o iding suppo o decen alised sus ainable o es go e nance. This
includes es ablishing o es managemen uni s and expanding implemen a ion o he coun y’s
social o es y p og amme.”16
RBP is also ope a ional a he p o ince le el, whe e he cen al go e nmen selec he p o ince
based on se e al c i e ia, including he poli ical will o p o incial go e nmen and a
unc ioning mul is akeholde p ocess in place o suppo p o incial go e nmen (in e iew 13,
23, 28). The Fo es Ca bon Pa ne ship Facili y (FCPF) is an example o a subna ional RBP, in
he o m o an ag eemen be ween GoI and mul iple dono s coo dina ed by he Wo ld Bank. A
FCPF g an ag eemen was ini ially signed in May 2011 and e ised in No embe 2016. FCPF
aims o con ibu e o he de elopmen o Indonesia’s capaci y o design a sound na ional
REDD+ s a egy, de elop na ional and subna ional e e ence scena ios and es ablish a o es
moni o ing and ca bon accoun ing sys em, consis en wi h local, egional and na ional
condi ions and ci cums ances (Minis y o En i onmen and Fo es y, 2023).
In Eas Kaliman an, one o he ac i i ies unde he FCPF was he p o ec ion o o es ed a eas
ou size s a e o es zone. The size o he a ea is ca. 850 000 ha, wi h an aim o p o ec ca. 640
000 ha. O he ac i i ies included clima e illage p og am (Wia i e al., 2022). The achie emen
was no ewo hy, as Eas Kaliman an managed o educe emission beyond he a ge and ea lie
15 h ps://www. egje ingen.no/globalasse s/upload/smk/ edlegg/2010/indonesia_a ale.pd
16 h ps://www.g eenclima e. und/p ojec / p130
38
han planned (Fo es Ca bon Pa ne ship Facili y, 2022; G een Clima e Fund, 2022; in e iew
13, 26). Howe e , he achie emen is deba ed; de o es a ion emains high, and he impac o
he ca o s is ques ioned as he pe iod o calcula ing esul s s a ed no be o e 2019-2020
(in e iew 30). I is impo an o no e ha while emission educ ion measu emen was s a ed
in 2019, Eas Kaliman an issued and conduc ed se e al policies and p og ams ha lead o i s
capaci y o educe emissions, s a ed om he “G een Eas Kaliman an” (“Kal im G een”) as
ea ly as 2010. Eas Kaliman an is also a p og essi e p o ince in e ms o issuing a p o incial
sus ainabili y egula ion o he es a e c op sec o .
Assessing he impac o na ional le el RBPs is inhe en ly di icul . One app oach is o “ ollow
he money” and in es iga e he impac o he imi a ed p ojec s. The GCF suppo was
designa ed o speci ic ac i i ies, while he No wegian con ibu ion is no . Howe e , a majo
aim o RBP is o induce policy e o ms ha educe emissions om opical o es . This boils
down o acing down policy decisions, and he impac o hose decisions. As discussed in
sec ion 6.2.1, he p omise o RBP om No way and o he ac o s is one among se e al ac o s
ha may explain Indonesian o es policy e o ms since ca. 2010, bu we a e no awa e o any
de ailed scien i ic s udies on RBP’s ole ela i e o o he ac o s.
4.1.5
Law en o cemen and in eg a ed fi e managemen
One impo an change in ecen yea s has been he s eng hening o law en o cemen . As one
in e iewee pu s i , “ o es s has been b ough in o he cou s” (in e iew 17). Toge he wi h he
independen moni o ing, law en o cemen o ice s success ully e eal illegal imbe and
wildli e ade, including imbe o igina ing om o es - ich egions such as Papua.
Fu he mo e, en o cemen by he go e nmen has led o p osecu ion o ac o s using i e o clea
he land. The igge was he success ul p osecu ion o a palm oil company, Kalis a Alam, who
was ound o ha e bu ned o es s in Aceh o oil palm plan a ions. A e his, he GoI has been
building cou cases agains companies allegedly bu ning o es s and pea lands. While he big
and publicised cases in ol e companies, he e a e also cases when indi iduals a e b ough o
he legal sys em o using i e.
In e ms o i e managemen , one impo an policy ea u e was he inclusion o i e p e en ion
and ea ly supp ession as he key pe o mance indica o s o high- anking o ice s a he
subna ional le el. The P esiden h ea ens o emo e o icials om he posi ion o p o incial
head o mili a y and police i hey ailed o p e en and manage i es (in e iew 5, 10, 15, 24,
25). The i e igh ing was ca ied ou in a coo dina ed manne , led by he i e b igade o he
Minis y o En i onmen and Fo es y (known as Manggala Agni) (in e iew 28).
4.2 P i a e sec o (indus y-ini�a ed) policies and measu es
P i a e egula ion, which e e s o indus y-wide s anda ds ini ia ed by he indus y, ha e been
in place since he ea ly 2000s o imbe and palm oil. The e has been a s eady inc ease o
ma ke up ake and p oduc ion o ce i ied palm oil (RSPO 2022). The up ake o ce i ied
imbe , such as h ough he FSC and PEFC schemes, is also inc easing.
45
measu ed in Rupiah. Thus, he p e-2020 decline in ag icul u al commodi y p ices (in USD) is
smalle when measu ed in Rupiah.
Figu e 10: Palm oil p ices and de o es a ion due o palm oil expansion: Sou ce: indexmundi.com, MBI and
Nusan a a A las (NA).
No e: i s y-axis is p ice, while he second y-axis is ha (de o es a ion and o al expansion o oil palm in o o es s
and o he land).
No o he coun y loses mo e o es due o indus ial mining han Indonesia. Du ing he i s
wo decades o his cen u y, 58.2% o he o es los globally o indus ial mining occu ed in
Indonesia, amoun ing o 190 098 ha (Giljum e al., 2022). Coal mining in Kaliman an was he
main sou ce behind his igu e.
In addi ion o coal, key mine als include nickel, coppe and gold in he mining indus y o
Indonesia. Figu e 11 shows he p ice ends o hese commodi ies. The mos s iking
de elopmen is he spike in coal p ices, a esul o he ene gy sho age a e he Russian
in asion o Uk aine in Feb ua y 2022. By ea ly 2024, coal p ices a e, howe e , back o a mo e
no mal le el.
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Palm oil p ice and oil palm de o es a ion and expansion
P ice (global) De o es a ion (MBI) De o es a ion (NA) Oil palm expansion (NA)

46
Figu e 11: P ice index o key mine als, coal and imbe (a e age p ice in 2014 = 100). Da a sou ce:
indexmundi.com
The p ice o he h ee mine als included ha e shown an inc easing end since 2016. Since i s
low in Feb ua y 2016, he p ice o nickel quad upled by Ma ch 2022, bu has since d opped
again by mo e han 50%. Gold p ices ha e shown a s eadie inc ease and a e by ea ly 2024
abou 50% highe han he 2014 le el. The same ne inc ease is ue o coppe , al hough he
p ice luc ua ions ha e been highe .
Timbe (ha d logs) p ices a e also pic u ed in he igu e, and we obse e no majo change un il
2020, a e which he p ice has d opped by ca. 30% (Janua y 2021 o end 2023).
O e all, mine als and coal ha e wi nessed a s eady inc ease in i s p ice o he pe iod o s udy,
unlike ag icul u al commodi ies which saw a decline un il 2020 and an inc ease a e wa ds.
This is consis en wi h he inding o sec ion 3: mining has in ecen yea s assumed a bigge
ole as a di ec d i e o de o es a ion.
5.2 Fo es sca ci y
5.2.1
The o es ansi�on
The Fo es T ansi ion (FT) heo y p edic s ha o es co e unde goes a s ylized ajec o y o
change, om an ini ial s able s a e h ough a pe iod o accele a ing a e o decline, o
decele a ing decline, and s abiliza ion and pa ial eco e y (Figu e 12) (Wol e sbe ge e al.,
2015). The heo y is o en used o explain and p edic de o es a ion ends bu is also c i icized
o i s de e minis ic p esc ip ions and weak empi ical ounda ions (Pe z, 2007). No e ha he e
a e wo impo an u ning poin s in he FT ajec o y: when he de o es a ion a e s a s o
-
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
625
650
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
May-23
Sep-23
Jan-24
P ice index o mined commodi ies and imbe (2014 = 100)
Ha d Logs Nickel
Coppe Gold
Coal
47
decline (shi s om accele a ing o decele a ing de o es a ion), and when de o es a ion ends
and e o es a ion s a s (de o es a ion shi s om posi i e o nega i e).22
Figu e 12: S ylised scheme o he o es ansi ion.
The FT can be linked o di e en bu in e ela ed ac o s. One o he main explana ions pu
o wa d in he li e a u e is he o es sca ci y hypo hesis: as o es co e declines, o es loss
ine i ably dec eases simply by he ac ha less o es is le o be clea ed. Inc easing sca ci y
o o es educes he supply o o es p oduc s and hence leads o highe alue o he o es ha
is le , making con e sion less p o i able and e en pa ly e e ses i (Angelsen & Rudel, 2013;
Ba bie e al., 2010; Rudel e al., 2005).
The second main explana ion in he FT li e a u e is linked o s ages o economic de elopmen .
Wi h inc easing demand o ood and o he ag icul u al commodi ies, o es is i s ans o med
in o ag icul u al a ea, be o e u banisa ion and dec easing ag icul u al employmen hal
ag icul u al expansion (Rudel e al., 2005).
5.2.2
Reg ession model
I he FT heo y plays a ole in explaining he decline in o es loss in Indonesia, we would hus
expec ha i has mos ly d opped in egions whe e: (i) o es co e has app oached o su passed
he i s u ning poin , o whe e (ii) economic de elopmen has led o lowe ag icul u al
dependency.
We use a panel eg ession model o he ollowing o m:
𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡= 𝛽𝛽1𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡+ 𝛽𝛽2𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓2
𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡+𝛽𝛽3𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑐𝑐𝑓𝑓𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡+ 𝛾𝛾𝑦𝑦𝑓𝑓𝑐𝑐𝑓𝑓𝑡𝑡
22 In ma hema ical e ms, i we conside o es co e o be a unc ion o ime, he i s u ning poin is when he
second de i a i e changes sign, while he second u ning poin is when he i s de i a i e changes sign.
Fo es
co e
Time
Tu ning poin 2
(de o  e o )
Tu ning poin 1
(inc easing  dec easing
a e o de o )
Fo es /plan a ions/
ag ic. mosaics
Undis u bed
o es s
Fo es /ag ic.
mosaics
Fo es
on ie s
48
The a iables 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 and 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 a e o es loss and o es co e calcula ed as he sha e o
land in p o ince i and yea , and 𝛾𝛾 a e yea ixed e ec s o con ol o ime ends ha a e
common ac oss p o inces. We include squa ed e ms o es o he hypo hesised bell-shaped
ela ionship be ween de o es a ion and o es co e . As an indica o o economic de elopmen ,
we used expendi u es pe capi a (also including a squa ed e m o allow o non-linea i y), he
ag icul u al employmen sha e, and popula ion densi y. All o hese a e p o ided by he
Indonesian Da abase o Policy and Economic Resea ch, accessed h ough he Wo ld Bank da a
po al.23
TMF
MBI
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Fo es co e
0.0346***
0.0351***
0.0307**
0.0099*
0.0104*
0.0079+
(0.008)
(0.0061)
(0.0099)
(0.0040)
(0.0039)
(0.0046)
Fo es co e squa ed
-0.043***
-0.0430***
-0.044***
-0.0106*
-0.0111*
-0.0117*
(0.009)
(0.0074)
(0.010)
(0.0046)
(0.0043)
(0.0049)
Expendi u e pe capi a
2.4e-08
4.0e-08*
1.8e-08
3.0e-08+
(1.6e-08)
(1.8e-08)
(1.3e-08)
(1.6e-08)
Expendi u e pe capi a squa ed
-9.7e-15
-1.6e-14+
-6.3e-15
-1.1e-14
(6.5e-15)
(7.7e-15)
(5.7e-15)
(7.4e-15)
Ag ic. employmen sha e
0.0081
0.0061
(0.0048)
(0.0040)
Popula ion densi y
-0.00035
-0.00020
(0.00022)
(0.00014)
FT u ning poin (% o es co e )
0.405
0.407
0.349
0.466
0.465
0.335
Obse a ions
660
602
500
616
544
488
R2
0.381
0.424
0.490
0.137
0.224
0.352
S d. E o s
by: p o ince
by: p o ince
by: p o ince
by: p o ince
by: p o ince
by: p o ince
Fixed E ec s: yea
X
X
X
X
X
X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
Table 8: Panel eg ession model esul s o de o es a ion as a sha e o land.
Reg ession esul s wi h bo h TMF and MBI da a a e shown in Table 8. The esul s indica e he
exis ence o a o es sca ci y e ec , whe e o es loss i s inc eases wi h o es co e , bu
dec eases once a u ning poin has been eached. Using only o es co e and squa ed o es
co e as co a ia es, he model can explain 38% and 14% o he a ia ion in de o es a ion o
TMF and MBI da a, espec i ely (columns (1) and (4)). Wi h all a iables included, ou model
explains 49% o he a ia ion in o es loss o TMF da a and 35% o MBI da a.
Depending on he model speci ica ion, he u ning poin was loca ed be ween 35% and 43%
o es co e acco ding o TMF da a and be ween 34% and 47% o MBI da a. The o es
sca ci y e ec emains signi ican also when socio-economic a iables we e added, such as
expendi u e pe capi a in columns (2) and (5), o ag icul u al employmen sha e and popula ion
densi y in columns (3) and (6). I he e o e appea s ha he o es sca ci y e ec domina ed
o e he economic de elopmen e ec in Indonesia.
23 h ps://da abank.wo ldbank.o g/sou ce/indonesia-da abase- o -policy-and-economic- esea ch/p e iew/on
49
Figu e 13: Fo es ansi ion cu e o model (1). P o ince ajec o ies a e plo ed o a e age de o es a ion and
a e age o es co e (TMF da a).
We u he in es iga ed he ajec o y o each p o ince along he o es ansi ion cu e o he
o es sca ci y u ning poin o 41% as indica ed in model (1) in Table 8, i.e., he i s u ning
poin o Figu e 12. We ind ha many p o inces’ o es co e indeed declined owa ds he
u ning poin h eshold and beyond (Figu e 13, Table 8). Compa ing a e age de o es a ion o
he yea s 2001-2005 and he pos -peak yea s 2017-2022, he only p o inces wi h inc easing
a es o o es loss o e he conside ed ime in e al we e ini ially loca ed on he igh side o
he u ning poin . Among he p o inces wi h he highes o es co e decline a e Jambi and
Riau, as shown by he dis ance be ween he blue and he yellow poin s along he x-axis (c .
sec ion 3.2.2). Whe eas Jambi has mo ed beyond he o es ansi ion u ning poin and shown
an inc ease in o es loss be ween he wo ime pe iods, Riau was loca ed close o he u ning
poin in he 2000-2005 pe iod wi h ex emely high de o es a ion bu has seen a subs an ial
educ ion in o es loss since hen. A gene al obse a ion is ha p o inces o he le o he
50
cu e appea o ha e expe ienced a s onge educ ion o de o es a ion a es and a lowe loss
in o es co e be ween he ime pe iods conside ed.
Figu e 13 gi es a be e indica ion o he loca ion o di e en p o inces along he di e en
o es sca ci y u ning poin s es ima ed in Table 8. Conside ing he implied u ning poin o
model (1) o 41%, eigh p o inces (Jambi, Riau, Bengkulu, Suma a U a a, Sulawesi Sela an,
Bali, Bangka Beli ung and Suma a) ha e mo ed om he igh o he le side o he u ning
poin be ween 2001 and 2022. Ano he en p o inces we e al eady below he o es sca ci y
h eshold in 2002.
Riau is an ex eme p o ince, in he sense ha he de o es a ion a e in 2001-2005 was much
highe han he es ima ed FT cu e sugges s. The 2017-2022 de o es a ion is s ill abo e ha
cu e, bu he huge decline obse ed be ween he pe iods can be seen as Riau becoming a mo e
“no mal” p o ince.
Table 9 shows he o es co e and o es co e loss ac oss he a chipelago, so ed by o es
co e in 2002 ( o es sha e o o al land). The FT heo y p edic s inc easing a es o
de o es a ion o high o es p o inces, while medium-low o es co e p o inces should
expe ience a decline in he a e o de o es a ion. Mo e gene ally, he highe he o es co e ,
he highe he expec ed inc ease in he de o es a ion a e.
In he i s ca ego y o e y high o es co e p o inces, he de o es a ion a e inc eased by 1.6
pe cen age poin s (pp). In line wi h FT p edic ions, he a e o de o es a ion in he medium
o es co e g oup, was educed by 2.8 pp, bu wi h la ge a ia ions wi hin he g oup.
O e all, he analysis o he o es ansi ion sugges s ha a o es sca ci y e ec has been a
signi ican ac o in he educ ion o o es loss in Indonesia o e he pas decade. Assuming
he e is a o es co e u ning poin om which de o es a ion a es decline as o es s ge sca ce,
we showed ha se e al p o inces ha e su passed his c i ical poin in ecen yea s and seen
educ ion in o es loss he ea e . Howe e , as a e y s ylised heo y, i is p uden o be cau ious
abou he p edic i e powe o he o es ansi ion and o in e p e he esul s in he con ex o
he ac ual ecological, socioeconomic and poli ical si ua ion in each p o ince.

51
Table 9: Fo es co e ( educ ion) by p o ince o he yea s 2002, 2012 and 2022. Kaliman an U a a and
Kaliman an Timu a e no included in he able, since Kaliman an U a a was only c ea ed in 2012 when i spli
o Kaliman an Timu o o m a new p o ince. Sou ce: TMF da a.
Ca ego y/P o ince TMF co e
2002
TMF co e
2012
TMF co e
2022
Change
2002-
2012
(pp)
Change
2012-
2022
(pp)
Change
2002-
2022
(pp)
Change
in de
a es
be ween
1. and 2.
pe iod
Ve y high o es co e
Papua Ba a
93.0%
91.5%
89.0%
-1.5%
-2.6%
-4.1%
-1.1%
Papua
84.3%
82.7%
79.7%
-1.6%
-3.0%
-4.6%
-1.4%
Maluku U a a
82.9%
78.5%
71.8%
-4.4%
-6.7%
-11.1%
-2.3%
Ca ego y a e age
86.7%
84.3%
80.2%
-2.5%
-4.1%
-6.6%
-1.6%
High o es co e
Sulawesi Tengah
78.9%
71.7%
62.7%
-7.2%
-9.0%
-16.2%
-1.8%
Sulawesi Ba a
74.3%
62.9%
53.5%
-11.5%
-9.4%
-20.8%
2.1%
Kaliman an Tengah
73.9%
61.7%
53.8%
-12.3%
-7.9%
-20.2%
4.4%
Maluku
71.6%
67.9%
62.8%
-3.7%
-5.1%
-8.8%
-1.3%
Suma a Ba a
71.3%
61.4%
53.8%
-10.0%
-7.5%
-17.5%
2.4%
Kaliman an Ba a
69.8%
56.1%
46.9%
-13.8%
-9.2%
-22.9%
4.6%
Aceh
69.7%
62.8%
56.7%
-6.9%
-6.1%
-13.0%
0.8%
Sulawesi U a a
68.5%
63.9%
52.4%
-4.6%
-11.5%
-16.1%
-6.9%
Go on alo
66.8%
63.1%
56.3%
-3.7%
-6.8%
-10.4%
-3.1%
Kepulauan Riau
66.4%
58.2%
48.3%
-8.3%
-9.9%
-18.1%
-1.6%
Sulawesi Tengga a
63.4%
56.5%
49.3%
-6.9%
-7.2%
-14.1%
-0.2%
Jambi
62.6%
44.0%
29.0%
-18.6%
-15.0%
-33.6%
3.7%
Ca ego y a e age
69.8%
60.8%
52.1%
-9.0%
-8.7%
-17.6%
0.3%
Medium o es co e
Riau
54.0%
30.1%
20.2%
-23.9%
-9.9%
-33.8%
14.0%
Bengkulu
53.6%
43.7%
36.5%
-9.9%
-7.2%
-17.1%
2.8%
Suma a U a a
49.9%
37.8%
31.2%
-12.2%
-6.5%
-18.7%
5.6%
Sulawesi Sela an
47.2%
39.9%
33.2%
-7.3%
-6.7%
-14.0%
0.6%
Bangka Beli ung
39.4%
26.6%
15.6%
-12.8%
-11.1%
-23.8%
1.7%
Suma a Sela an
39.3%
24.7%
15.0%
-14.7%
-9.7%
-24.3%
5.0%
Bali
36.3%
27.8%
16.5%
-8.5%
-11.3%
-19.8%
-2.8%
Kaliman an Sela an
35.1%
28.2%
22.2%
-6.9%
-6.0%
-12.9%
0.8%
Nusa Tengga a Ba a
32.4%
29.3%
23.5%
-3.1%
-5.8%
-8.9%
-2.7%
Ca ego y a e age
43.0%
32.0%
23.8%
-11.0%
-8.2%
-19.3%
2.8%
Low o es co e
Ban en
28.9%
23.4%
17.4%
-5.5%
-6.1%
-11.6%
-0.6%
Jawa Ba a
24.2%
17.2%
10.4%
-7.0%
-6.7%
-13.7%
0.2%
Jawa Tengah
17.5%
12.4%
7.1%
-5.1%
-5.2%
-10.3%
-0.1%
Lampung
16.6%
13.5%
11.2%
-3.1%
-2.3%
-5.4%
0.8%
Jawa Timu
16.0%
10.8%
6.2%
-5.2%
-4.7%
-9.8%
0.5%
Nusa Tengga a Timu
9.7%
8.0%
6.4%
-1.6%
-1.7%
-3.3%
0.0%
Ca ego y a e age 18.8% 14.2% 9.8% -4.6% -4.4% -9.0% 0.1%
52
6 Discussion and conclusions
The s a ing ques ion was: “Why has de o es a ion in Indonesia declined o e he pas ew
yea s?”. The e is no s aigh o wa d me hod o answe such a complex ques ion, and he
app oach has been o build an e idence base and de elop a cohe en s o y by decomposing
de o es a ion igu es (yea , loca ion and di ec d i e ), h ough in e iews, and by s a is ical
analysis. While such a iangula ion is he mos iable app oach, he e a e se e al challenges.
Fi s , he da a do no ell one uni o m s o y. As seen in sec ion 3, he numbe s on he le el o
de o es a ion and i s di ec d i e s di e conside ably, due o di e en de ini ions, me hods and
p ima y da a sou ces. Second, he e is no single, bes app oach o ace impac s. This was
exempli ied by he in e iewees on he impac s o he mo a o ium. Some s essed how he
mo a o ium has – o has no – changed economic incen i es hough new “s icks and ca o s”
(including legal en o cemen and punishmen s). O he s s essed he p ocess, and how he
mo a o ium can change alues and a i udes, and also has s imula ed a p ocess o be e
coo dina ion ac oss di e en sec o s and le el o go e nmen .
6.1 Wha has happened?
De o es a ion in Indonesia has d opped by a leas 50% since 2016. Al hough o es loss o i es
has been ex ao dina ily high in he yea s be o e he d op, his alone is no su icien o explain
he end. The educ ion has occu ed o mos p o inces and di ec d i e s, sugges ing ha
na ional policies and s uc u al changes has been a majo ac o , mo e han commodi y-speci ic
ones (commodi y p ices, ce i ica ion, e c.). Ye he e a e majo di e ences ac oss p o inces,
wi h some (p e iously) high-de o es a ion p o inces ha ing educed de o es a ion by up o
80%.
An in e es ing egional pa e n is obse ed o he o es enc oachmen ac o (EF) o di e en
commodi ies - he sha e o land new ag icul u al land ha is om o es con e sion. The
educ ion in he EF o Suma a is no ewo hy, while i has emained ela i ely s able o
Kaliman an.
The e has, howe e , been some ma ked changes o e ime in he di ec d i e s o de o es a ion,
i.e., he commodi ies ha a e p oduced on he land a e he ees ha e been emo ed. Palm oil
s ill is he single mos impo an commodi y, and he MBI da a sugges ha 46% o he pos -
o es uses du ing 2018-2022 was o oil palm, compa ed o 55% du ing 2010-2017. A he
same ime, he enc oachmen ac o o palm oil has declined in ecen yea s, i.e., a smalle sha e
o he newly es ablished oil palm is on p e iously o es land. This is ue pa icula ly in
Suma a. Fo Indonesia, howe e , he main ac o is educed oil palm expansion in o any o ms
o land, while educed enc oachmen ac o comes second.
Se e al epo s sugges ha pulpwood is on he ise as a di ec d i e , al hough MBI da a does
no suppo ha claim. Nusan a a A las da a does, howe e , poin o a majo inc ease in
Kaliman an (and a mo e in pulp-d i en de o es a ion om Suma a o Kaliman an). In he h ee
high-de o es a ion p o inces o Kaliman an, pulp made up 29% o he de o es a ion in 2022.
53
Mine al mining is ano he di ec d i e , al hough he o e all sha e emains ela i ely low.
Acco ding o MBI da a, mining was esponsible o 3.4% o he de o es a ion in Indonesia o
he 2018-2022 pe iod, up om 0.9% in he 2010-2017 pe iod (wi h a much highe sha e in he
las wo yea s (2021-2022): 5.4%). Mining is pa icula ly impo an in Sulawesi, whe e i
accoun ed o 30% o he de o es a ion in 2021-2022, compa ed o 8% du ing 2010-2017.
The expansion o o he ag icul u al commodi ies, such as ubbe , is no as easy o iden i y, as
de ailed da a is missing and challenges exis in dis inguishing, o example, jungle ubbe om
o es s wi h emo e sensing me hods. The sha e o land ca ego ised as “O he ag icul u al land”
has, howe e , inc eased be ween he la es pe iods (MBI da a).
Finally, imbe p oduc ion seems o play a dec easing ole, o easons discussed below.
6.2 The hypo heses
We pu o wa d i e possible explana ions (hypo heses) o he decline, and we e iew each o
hem in u n.
6.2.1
H1: Go e nmen policies
Public policy e o ms ake ime o ha e an impac on he g ound. The educ ion o de o es a ion
o e he las ew yea s is he esul o policies and measu es ha we e enac ed much ea lie .
Se e al e en s led o majo policy e o ms du ing he decade o 2010-2020.
In 2007, Indonesia hos ed COP13 o UNFCCC, whe e REDD+ was o icially adop ed and
became pa o he Bali Road Map, and hus a main elemen o he in e na ional clima e
mi iga ion agenda. As he COP13 hos , also Indonesia played a majo ole in he ollow up
wo k.
In May 2010, No way and Indonesia signed a Le e o In en , in which No way pledged up o
USD 1 billion as paymen o educed emissions. A key esul o he ag eemen was he
mo a o ium o 2011. The impac o ha (and he la e addi ions) is s ill deba ed. Schola ly
s udies lend some suppo o he mo a o ium ha ing a posi i e conse a ion e ec , al hough
he e ec size is limi ed compa ed o he commi men s. An impo an side e ec o he
mo a o ium has been mo e coo dina ion ac oss sec o al minis ies and le els o go e nmen ,
also pa o he One map ini ia i e.
In 2015, massi e o es i es and esul ing haze in Indonesia and i s neighbou s, which by some
es ima es caused abou 100 000 p ema u e dea hs due o he smoke exposu e.24 I caused majo
domes ic conce ns and pu i e managemen and pea land p o ec ion a he op o he poli ical
agenda. Se e al impo an policy measu es whe e implemen ed, and he in e iewees
highligh s his among he mos impo an policies in explaining he de o es a ion educ ion.
O he policy ini ia i es include schemes o esul s-based paymen and social o es y. An
o e all assessmen o hese is lacking, bu we conjec u e ha hese ha e been impo an in he
24 h ps://seas.ha a d.edu/news/2016/09/smoke-2015-indonesian- i es-may-ha e-caused-100000-p ema u e-
dea hs#:~: ex =Schools%20and%20businesses%20closed%2C%20planes,Indonesia%2C%20Malaysia%2C%20
and%20Singapo e.
54
loca ions whe e implemen ed. RBP has wo ked in Eas Kaliman an and po en ially Jambi.
Simila ly, illage o es shows i s capaci y o educe de o es a ion. Howe e , ou assessmen is
ha hey ha e had mo e limi ed impac on na ional de o es a ion a es.
6.2.2
H2: P i a e policies and indus y ac�on
The s o y o p i a e sec o o es ini ia i es and hei impac s is a mixed one. The a ea unde
ce i ica ion, a leas o oil palm, has inc eased, and a ew s udies sugges a posi i e o es
impac o ce i ica ion schemes and pledges. Howe e , i ully implemen ed, we should ha e
seen a sha p decline in he o es enc oachmen ac o s, some hing which only can be obse ed
o Suma a and is mo e likely o be due o a o es sca ci y e ec (see below).
Much o he ce i ica ion deba e and ini ia i es has ocused on palm oil. Fo imbe , pulp,
companies can apply FSC o PEFC ce i ica ion, ye i is no widesp ead. In pa icula , he la ge
conglome a e Sina Mas (which includes he subsidia y Asia Pulp & Pape ), despi e ha ing
adop ed PEFC ce i ica ion, a e s ill wo king o end i s disassocia ion wi h FSC.
Since he las decade, palm oil and pulp and pape companies ha e inc eased hei commi men
o elimina e de o es a ion om hei supply chains by issuing NDPE policies. The e a e ea ly
signs ha he pledges ha e p oduced some educ ion in de o es a ion, bu companies wi h
NDPE policies s ill ace challenges in ensu ing ha smallholde s and indi ec supplie s comply
o hei NDPE policies.
6.2.3
H3: Ci il socie y p essu e
Ci il socie y o ganiza ions (CSOs) play an indi ec bu impo an ole by in luencing public
policy make s and co po a e ac o s. The ole and impac a e ha de o assess, as one has o ack
speci ic policy c ea ion and implemen a ion p ocesses.
CSO plays an impo an ole in se e al a eas. Fi s , hey a e ac i e ac o s on he policy a ena.
Wha is no ewo hy in Indonesia is ha his has no been limi ed o public policies, bu he e
a e se e al examples o hei ole in p i a e sec o ini ia i es. Second, CSO a e impo an
wa chdogs o bo h implemen a ion o public and p i a e egula ions and pledges. Se e al such
b eaches ha e been b ough o public a en ion and in some cases ended up in he cou s.
Finally, CSO wo k locally in he implemen a ion o speci ic p ojec s, wi h po en ially
signi ican posi i e impac s locally, bu mos likely insu icien in numbe s and co e age o
a ec na ional de o es a ion a es signi ican ly.
6.2.4
H4: Ma ke s and p ices o de o es a�on- isk commodi�es
Se e al commodi ies a e in ol ed in he de o es a ion p ocess. O e all, p ices o key
de o es a ion- isk commodi ies we e ela i ely s able du ing he 2016-2020 pe iod, while some
ha e inc eased du ing he pandemic (2020-2022) and also a e 2022 as a esul o he wa in
Uk aine.
Changing commodi y p ices we e no a d i e behind he educed de o es a ion. Ne e heless,
we conjec u e ha s able p ice o key commodi ies made implemen ing bo h public and p i a e
policies less cos ly o poli icians and p oduce s, which also imp o ed policy e ec i eness.
61
Veen, F. J. F. (2020). T opical o es and pea land conse a ion in Indonesia: Challenges and
di ec ions. People and Na u e, 2(1), 4–28. h ps://doi.o g/10.1002/pan3.10060
Heijlen, W., & Duhayon, C. (2024). An empi ical es ima e o he land oo p in o nickel om
la e i e mining in Indonesia. The Ex ac i e Indus ies and Socie y, 17, 101421.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.exis.2024.101421
Heilmay , R., & Benedic , J. (2022, Sep embe 14). Indonesia makes p og ess owa ds ze o
palm oil de o es a ion. T ase.Ea h. h ps:// ase.ea h/insigh s/indonesia-makes-p og ess-
owa ds-ze o-palm-oil-de o es a ion
Heilmay , R., Ca lson, K. M., & Benedic , J. J. (2020). De o es a ion spillo e s om oil palm
sus ainabili y ce i ica ion. En i onmen al Resea ch Le e s, 15(7), 075002.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7 0c
Ichsan, A. C., P ayoga, A. P., & Dalya, N. (2021). S udy o o es managemen uni
pe o mance in Indonesia. IOP Con e ence Se ies: Ea h and En i onmen al Science, 681(1),
012004. h ps://doi.o g/10.1088/1755-1315/681/1/012004
Jong, H. N. (2021a, Ma ch 9). De o es a ion in Indonesia hi s eco d low, bu expe s ea a
ebound. Mongabay En i onmen al News. h ps://news.mongabay.com/2021/03/2021-
de o es a ion-in-indonesia-hi s- eco d-low-bu -expe s- ea -a- ebound/
Jong, H. N. (2021b, Sep embe 10). Indonesia e mina es ag eemen wi h No way on $1b
REDD+ scheme. h ps://news.mongabay.com/2021/09/indonesia- e mina es-ag eemen -wi h-
no way-on-1b- edd-scheme/
Jong, H. N. (2022, Sep embe 12). Indonesia and No way gi e REDD+ deal ano he go a e
ea lie b eakup. Mongabay. h ps://news.mongabay.com/2022/09/indonesia-and-no way-gi e-
edd-deal-ano he -go-a e -ea lie -b eakup/
Jong, H. N. (2024, Feb ua y 15). Palm oil de o es a ion makes comeback in Indonesia a e
decade-long slump. Mongabay. h ps://news.mongabay.com/2024/02/palm-oil-de o es a ion-
makes-comeback-in-indonesia-a e -decade-long-slump/
Kaimowi z, D., & Angelsen, A. (1998). Economic Models o T opical De o es a ion: A Re iew.
CIFOR.
Kemen e ian Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehu anan. (2023). S a is ik 2022 Kemen e ian
Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehu anan.
Kiely, L., Sp acklen, D. V., A nold, S. R., Papa gy opoulou, E., Conibea , L., Wiedinmye , C.,
Kno e, C., & Ad ian o, H. A. (2021). Assessing cos s o Indonesian i es and he bene i s o
es o ing pea land. Na u e Communica ions, 12(1), 7044. h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s41467-021-
27353-x

62
Kim, Y.-S., Bae, J. S., Fishe , L. A., La i ah, S., A i i, M., Lee, S. M., & Kim, I.-A. (2016).
Indonesia’s Fo es Managemen Uni s: E ec i e in e media ies in REDD + implemen a ion?
Fo es Policy and Economics, 62, 69–77. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j. o pol.2015.09.004
Kosa , M., P amudiana, D., Fe dyan, D. T., & Mauli a, A. (2019). PHPL: F om legali y o
sus ainabili y. JPIK.
K aus, S., Liu, J., Koch, N., & Fuss, S. (2021). No agg ega e de o es a ion educ ions om
ollou o communi y land i les in Indonesia ye . P oceedings o he Na ional Academy o
Sciences o he Uni ed S a es o Ame ica, 118(43), e2100741118.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1073/pnas.2100741118
Lee, G. (2023, July 4). Explaine : Why de o es a ion has hi a his o ic low in Indonesia. Eco-
Business. h ps://www.eco-business.com/news/explaine -why-de o es a ion-has-hi -a-his o ic-
low-in-indonesia/
Leij en, F., Sim, S., King, H., & Ve bu g, P. H. (2021). Local de o es a ion spillo e s induced
by o es mo a o ia: E idence om Indonesia. Land Use Policy, 109, 105690.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105690
Leony Au o a. (2012, June 27). Indonesia seeks “mul i-bila e alism” o help ge REDD+ o
he g ound. Fo es News. h ps:// o es snews.ci o .o g/9932/indonesia-seeks-mul i-
bila e alism- o-help-ge - edd-o - he-g ound? nl=en
Madani Be kelanju an. (2021). Palm oil mo a o ium, impo an o be ex ended and
s eng hened. h ps://madanibe kelanju an.id/palm-oil-mo a o ium-impo an - o-be-ex ended-
and-s eng hened/
Meijaa d, E. (2017, Sep embe 17). Does social o es y always dec ease de o es a ion and
po e y? (Commen a y). Mongabay. h ps://news.mongabay.com/2017/09/social- o es y-
some imes-bu -no -always-dec eases-de o es a ion-and-po e y-commen a y/
Meu ia, A. A., Lumowa, R., & Sakakiba a, M. (2022). Indonesian A isanal and Small-Scale
Gold Mining—A Na a i e Li e a u e Re iew. In e na ional Jou nal o En i onmen al
Resea ch and Public Heal h, 19(7), 3955. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/ije ph19073955
Minis y o En i onmen and Fo es y. (2023). Indonesia: Emission educ ions p og am.
MoEF and Fo es Ca bon Pa ne ship Facili y.
Mi e a, D. A., Loucks, C. J., & Pa anayak, S. K. (2015). Social and En i onmen al Impac s o
Fo es Managemen Ce i ica ion in Indonesia. PLOS ONE, 10(7), e0129675.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1371/jou nal.pone.0129675
MoEF. (2022). The s a e o Indonesia’s o es s 2022 (p. 96). Minis y o En i onmen and
Fo es y.
Mosnie , A., Boe e, E., Reumann, A., Yowa gana, P., Pi ke , J., Ha lik, P., & Pacheco, P.
(2017). Palm oil and likely u u es: Assessing he po en ial impac s o ze o de o es a ion
63
commi men s and a mo a o ium on la ge-scale oil palm plan a ions in Indonesia (177; CIFOR
In ob ie ). CIFOR. h ps://www.ci o -ic a .o g/publica ions/pd _ iles/in ob ie /6468-
in ob ie .pd
Mu aqien, A. (2023, July 18). Pemu ihan Kebun Sawi di Kawasan Hu an Pupuskan Langkah
Pemulihan Lingkungan. Mongabay. h ps://www.mongabay.co.id/2023/07/18/pemu ihan-
kebun-sawi -di-kawasan-hu an-pupuskan-langkah-pemulihan-lingkungan/
Nababan, W. M. C. (2023, June 24). Pe baikan Ta a Kelola, Peme in ah Akan Pu ihkan 3,3
Ju a Hek a Sawi di Kawasan Hu an. Kompas.
h ps://www.kompas.id/baca/ekonomi/2023/06/23/pe baikan- a a-kelola-peme in ah-akan-
pu ihkan-33-ju a-hek a e-sawi -di-kawasan-hu an
Nug oho, H. Y. S. H., Ind ajaya, Y., As ana, S., Mu nia i, Suha i, S., Basuki, T. M., Yuwa i, T.
W., Pu a, P. B., Na end a, B. H., Abdulah, L., Se yawa i, T., Suba udi, K isnawa i, H.,
Pu wan o, Sapu a, M. H., Lisnawa i, Y., Ga se iasih, R., Sawi i, R., Pu i, I. A. S. L. P., …
Rahmila, Y. I. (2023). A Ch onicle o Indonesia’s Fo es Managemen : A Long S ep owa ds
En i onmen al Sus ainabili y and Communi y Wel a e. Land, 12(6), A icle 6.
h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/land12061238
Pe z, S. G. (2007). G and Theo y and Con ex -Speci ici y in he S udy o Fo es Dynamics:
Fo es T ansi ion Theo y and O he Di ec ions. The P o essional Geog aphe , 59(1), 105–114.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1111/j.1467-9272.2007.00594.x
Pu wan o, E. (2015). Challenges o he Social Fo es y P og am in Indonesia and he Roles o
CSOs. T openbos Indonesia.
Rahayu, S., La aswa i, D., Pe madi, D. B., Sahide, M. A. K., & Ma yudi, A. (2023). Only a
Noise? The Role o Non-go e nmen al O ganiza ions in he Policy P ocesses o a New Social
Fo es y Model in Indonesia. Small-Scale Fo es y, 22(2), 253–270.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11842-022-09525-9
Ramadhan, R., Ka im, S., Fishe , M. R., Mu syid, H., & Ind awan, M. (2023). Assessing he
Go e nance Modes o Indonesia’s Fo es Managemen Uni . In En i onmen al go e nance in
Indonesia (pp. 151–166). Sp inge .
RSPO. (2023). Impac upda e 2023. RSPO.
Rudel, T. K., Coomes, O. T., Mo an, E., Acha d, F., Angelsen, A., Xu, J., & Lambin, E. (2005a).
Fo es ansi ions: Towa ds a global unde s anding o land use change. Global En i onmen al
Change, 15(1), 23–31. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.gloen cha.2004.11.001
Rudel, T. K., Coomes, O. T., Mo an, E., Acha d, F., Angelsen, A., Xu, J., & Lambin, E. (2005b).
Fo es ansi ions: Towa ds a global unde s anding o land use change. Global En i onmen al
Change, 15(1), 23–31. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.gloen cha.2004.11.001
64
Sahide, M. A. K., Ma yudi, A., Sup a man, S., & Giessen, L. (2016). Is Indonesia u ilising i s
in e na ional pa ne s? The d i ing o ces behind Fo es Managemen Uni s. Fo es Policy and
Economics, 69, 11–20. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j. o pol.2016.04.002
Samnuzulsa i, T., K is an i, D., Susan o, H., Yudia maja, W. E., Yunan o, M. K., Meilinda, S.
D., & Akba , D. (2021). The s a egic ole o ci il socie y o ganisa ions in handling clima e
change: A case o Riau in Indonesia. IOP Con e ence Se ies: Ea h and En i onmen al Science,
824(1), 012104. h ps://doi.o g/10.1088/1755-1315/824/1/012104
San ika, T., Meijaa d, E., Budhiha a, S., Law, E. A., Kuswo o, A., Joseph A. Hu aba a , Ti o
P. Ind awan, Ma hew S uebig, Sugeng Raha jo, Imanul Huda, Sulhani, Andini D. Ekapu i,
Soni T ison, Madelaine S igne , & Ke ie A. Wilson. (2017). Communi y o es managemen
in Indonesia: A oided de o es a ion in he con ex o an h opogenic and clima e complexi ies.
Global En i onmen al Change, 46, 60–71. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.gloen cha.2017.08.002
San ika, T., Wilson, K. A., Budiha a, S., Kuswo o, A., Meijaa d, E., Law, E. A., F iedman, R.,
Hu aba a , J. A., Ind awan, T. P., S . John, F. A. V., & S uebig, M. J. (2019). He e ogeneous
impac s o communi y o es y on o es conse a ion and po e y alle ia ion: E idence om
Indonesia. People and Na u e, 1(2), 204–219. h ps://doi.o g/10.1002/pan3.25
Sas a, Y. (2024, Janua y 24). Social Fo es y in Wes Suma a Reduces he Ra e o
De o es a ion—Kompas.id. Kompas. h ps://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2024/01/24/en-
pe hu anan-sosial-di-sumba - ekan-laju-de o es asi
Schol e, M. (2019). Indonesia cu ails de o es a ion: Ge man de elopmen coope a ion lends
suppo , a jou nalis ic iew (p. 35). GIZ Fo clime.
Sembi ing, R., Fa imah, I., & Widyaningsih, G. A. (2020). Indonesia’s Omnibus Bill on Job
C ea ion: A Se back o En i onmen al Law? h ps://doi.o g/10.1163/24686042-12340051
Seymou , F. J., Au o a, L., & A i , J. (2020). The Ju isdic ional App oach in Indonesia:
Incen i es, Ac ions, and Facili a ing Connec ions. F on ie s in Fo es s and Global Change, 3.
h ps://doi.o g/10.3389/ gc.2020.503326
Sucahyo, N. (2023, June 24). Paka : Pemu ihan Kebun Sawi di A ea Hu an Un ungkan
Ko po asi. VoA Indonesia. h ps://www. oaindonesia.com/a/paka -pemu ihan-kebun-sawi -
di-a ea-hu an-un ungkan-ko po asi-/7151177.h ml
Suna o, S., Sha i a, M., & Anwa , M. (2021). Implica ions o he Omnibus Law on Job
C ea ion owa ds he Indonesian Fo es y Sec o . Fia Jus isia: Ju nal Ilmu Hukum, 15(3),
A icle 3. h ps://doi.o g/10.25041/ ia jus isia. 15no3.2302
Sup ia na, J., Shekelle, M., Fuad, H. A. H., Wina ni, N. L., Dwiyah eni, A. A., Fa id, M.,
Ma ia i, S., Ma gules, C., P akoso, B., & Zaka ia, Z. (2020). De o es a ion on he Indonesian
island o Sulawesi and he loss o p ima e habi a . Global Ecology and Conse a ion, 24,
e01205. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01205
65
Suwa no, A., an Noo dwijk, M., Weika d, H.-P., & Suyam o, D. (2018). Indonesia’s o es
con e sion mo a o ium assessed wi h an agen -based model o Land-Use Change and
Ecosys em Se ices (LUCES). Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change, 23(2),
211–229. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11027-016-9721-0
Tabacek, K. (2010, Ma ch 19). Nes lé se s ime able o palm oil decision. The Gua dian.
h ps://www. hegua dian.com/sus ainable-business/nes le-ca gill-palmoil
Te zano, D., A o e, F., Pa ish, F., Moss, P., B esciani, F., Cooke, R., & Da gusch, P. (2022).
Communi y-led pea land es o a ion in Sou heas Asia: 5Rs app oach. Res o a ion Ecology,
30(8), e13642. h ps://doi.o g/10.1111/ ec.13642
TheT eeMap. (2023, Janua y 5). Palm oil de o es a ion in Indonesia le els o in 2022.
Nusan a a A las. h ps://nusan a a-a las.o g/palm-oil-de o es a ion-in-indonesia-le els-o -in-
2022/
T opical Fo es Alliance & LPEM Uni e si as Indonesia. (2022). In es o b ie : Sus ainable
land use o so commodi ies—Challenges and oppo uni ies in Indonesia (01/2022; p. 18).
T opical Fo es Alliance. h ps://www.lpem.o g/wp-
con en /uploads/2022/11/In es o _B ie _So _Commodi ies_Designed.pd
Tu ubano a, S., Po apo , P. V., Tyuka ina, A., & Hansen, M. C. (2018). Ongoing p ima y o es
loss in B azil, Democ a ic Republic o he Congo, and Indonesia. En i onmen al Resea ch
Le e s, 13(7). h ps://doi.o g/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c
Tyuka ina, A., Po apo , P., Hansen, M. C., Pickens, A. H., S ehman, S. V., Tu ubano a, S.,
Pa ke , D., Zalles, V., Lima, A., Komma eddy, I., Song, X.-P., Wang, L., & Ha is, N. (2022).
Global T ends o Fo es Loss Due o Fi e F om 2001 o 2019. F on ie s in Remo e Sensing, 3.
h ps://www. on ie sin.o g/a icles/10.3389/ sen.2022.825190
Uni e si y o Cali o nia San a Ba ba a, Woods and Wayside In e na ional, TheT eeMap,
S ockholm En i onmen Ins i u e, & Global Canopy. (2023). De o es a ion su ge ends a
decade o p og ess o Indonesia’s pulp sec o . h ps://doi.o g/10.48650/KWRA-E756
Vancu sem, C., Acha d, F., Pekel, J. F., Vieilleden , G., Ca boni, S., Simone i, D., Gallego, J.,
A agão, L. E. O. C., & Nasi, R. (2021). Long- e m (1990-2019) moni o ing o o es co e
changes in he humid opics. Science Ad ances, 7(10), 1–22.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1126/sciad .abe1603
Wahyu, A., Suha ji o, D., Da usman, D., & Syau ina, L. (2020). The De elopmen o
Communi y-Based Fo es Managemen in Indonesia and I s Con ibu ion o Communi y
Wel a e and Fo es Condi ion. IOP Con e ence Se ies: Ea h and En i onmen al Science,
528(1), 012037. h ps://doi.o g/10.1088/1755-1315/528/1/012037
Wia i, C. B., Dha mawan, I. W. S., Sakun aladewi, N., Ekawa i, S., Wahyuni, T., Maha ani, R.,
Hadiyan, Y., Naibaho, Y., Sa ia, W. I., Nga iman, N., Abdu achman, A., Ka milasan i, K.,
Laksmi a, A. N., Angi, E. M., & Khadka, C. (2022). Challenges o and S a egies o he
66
Clima e Village P og am Plus: A Lesson Lea ned om Indonesia. Sus ainabili y, 14(9), A icle
9. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/su14095530
Wol e sbe ge , J., Delaco e, P., & Ga cia, S. (2015). An empi ical analysis o o es ansi ion
and land-use change in de eloping coun ies. Ecological Economics, 119, 241–251.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.08.018
Yuwa i, T. W., Rachmanadi, D., P a iwi, Tu jaman, M., Ind ajaya, Y., Nug oho, H. Y. S. H.,
Qi om, M. A., Na end a, B. H., Wina no, B., Les a i, S., San osa, P. B., Adi, R. N., Sa i i, E.,
Pu a, P. B., Wahyuning yas, R. S., P ayudyaningsih, R., Halwany, W., Nas ul, B., Bas oni, &
Mendham, D. (2021). Res o a ion o Deg aded T opical Pea land in Indonesia: A Re iew.
Land, 10(11), A icle 11. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/land10111170

67
Annex 1: In e iew guide
Resou ce pe sons we e selec ed based on he in o ma ion ob ained in he li e a u e e iew, as
well as ep esen a i es o a di e si y o ac o s in he ield: go e nmen (na ional and
subna ional), p i a e sec o , dono communi y, and ci il socie y o ganiza ions. We s a ed
asking he esou ce pe sons wi h open ques ions on he ends, policies, and measu es. Fo each
policy and measu e, we asked mo e de ailed in o ma ion on he cha ac e is ics o he policies
and measu es ha may con ibu e o he educ ion o de o es a ion. In some in e iew sessions,
we ocus on ce ain policies ha we ound in he li e a u e e iew.
Mos o he 32 esou ce pe sons in e iewed eques ed o emain anonymous, and we ha e
he e o e no included he names and a ilia ions. The guiding ques ions we e:
0. In oduc ion
a. In oducing he in e iewe , i s o ganiza ional a ilia ion, and he p ojec .
b. Responden s may answe he ques ions pa ly wi hou any consequences.
c. Pe mission o eco d he audio only o esea ch pu poses. No eco ding i he
esou ce pe son does no app o e.
1. Gene al
a. Desc ibe abou you and you o ganiza ion.
b. Desc ibe how you o you o ganiza ion a e ela ed o he analysis o de o es a ion
ends in Indonesia (policymake , business, analys , campaign, obse e , e c).
2. De o es a ion ends
a. Explain wha you unde s and abou he end o de o es a ion in he las 5 yea s, and
in he longe e m.
b. Explain wha you unde s and abou he commodi y, loca ion, ype o land use, and
magni ude (size).
c. Explain how you know ha de o es a ion has dec eased in he las ew yea s.
3. Fac o s ha con ibu e o he educ ion o de o es a ion.
a. Explain wha public policies, p og ams, and measu es ha you hink ha e
con ibu ed o he educ ion o de o es a ion.
b. Fo each public policy, how has he policy con ibu ed o he educ ion o
de o es a ion?
c. Explain wha p i a e ac ions ha you hink ha e con ibu ed o he educ ion o
de o es a ion.
d. Fo each p i a e ac ion, how has he ac ion con ibu ed o he educ ion o
de o es a ion?
e. Wha a e he oles o ci il socie y o ganiza ions in educing de o es a ion? To wha
ex en hey con ibu e o he educ ion o de o es a ion?
. Wha a e he oles o o he s akeholde s (e.g dono p og ams) in educing
de o es a ion? To wha ex en hey con ibu e o he educ ion o de o es a ion?
g. To wha ex en he eme gence o cus oma y o es con ibu es o he educ ion o
de o es a ion?
h. Wha o he ac o s ha you hink may con ibu e o he educ ion o de o es a ion?
How did hese ac o s play ou ?
4. Do you hink he de o es a ion educ ion will con inue? Wha a e he isk ac o s ha may
inc ease de o es a ion in he u u e?