Ge schewski, Johannes; Gieble , Heiko; Hellmeie , Sebas ian; Ke emoğlu, Eda;
Zü n, Michael
A icle — Published Ve sion
The limi s o spo swashing. How he 2022 FIFA Wo ld Cup
a ec ed a i udes abou Qa a
PLOS ONE
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WZB Be lin Social Science Cen e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ge schewski, Johannes; Gieble , Heiko; Hellmeie , Sebas ian; Ke emoğlu, Eda;
Zü n, Michael (2024) : The limi s o spo swashing. How he 2022 FIFA Wo ld Cup a ec ed a i udes
abou Qa a , PLOS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, Public Lib a y o Science, San F ancisco, CA, Vol. 19, Iss. 8,
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
The limi s o spo swashing. How he 2022
FIFA Wo ld Cup a ec ed a i udes abou Qa a
Johannes Ge schewskiID
1
, Heiko Gieble ID
2,3
, Sebas ian Hellmeie
3
, Eda Ke emoğluID
4
*,
Michael Zu
¨ n
1,2
1Resea ch Depa men “Global Go e nance”, WZB Be lin Social Science Cen e , Be lin, Ge many, 2Clus e
o Excellence “Con es a ions o he Libe al Sc ip ”, F eie Uni e si a
¨ Be lin, Be lin, Ge many, 3Resea ch
Depa men “T ans o ma ions o Democ acy”, WZB Be lin Social Science Cen e , Be lin, Ge many,
4Depa men o Poli ics and Public Adminis a ion, Uni e si y o Kons anz, Kons anz, Ge many
*eda.ke emoglu-wai[email p o ec ed]
Abs ac
Non-democ a ic egimes ha e inc easingly been hos ing majo spo s e en s o boos hei
isibili y and image ab oad, which spa ked deba es abou he po en ial o “spo swashing”.
Using he case o he 2022 FIFA Wo ld Cup in Qa a we examine how he aming o he
ou namen in luenced opinions abou Qa a ab oad. Ou p e- egis e ed su ey expe imen
wi h mo e han 14,000 esponden s in eigh Eu opean coun ies conduc ed be o e he ou -
namen shows ha aming i in ligh o human igh s issues in Qa a leads o mo e nega i e
a i udes owa ds he hos o he Wo ld Cup. In con as , ames emphasizing Qa a ’s o gani-
za ional capaci y imp o e esponden s’ a i udes. The he e ogenei y o e ec s ac oss coun-
ies highligh s he ele ance o he na ional in o ma ion en i onmen o he e ec s o majo
spo s e en s on public opinion. These indings sugges ha c i ical media co e age could
po en ially mi iga e spo swashing e o s while unc i ical co e age can inc ease he legi i-
macy o au oc acies.
In oduc ion
Majo cul u al and spo s e en s p o ide hos na ions wi h a unique oppo uni y o p esen
hemsel es in on o he wo ld and shape how a global audience pe cei es hem. While poli i-
cal leade s migh be mo i a ed by domes ic easons as well [1–3], au ho i a ian egimes ha e
seized such oppo uni ies in he pas aiming o imp o e hei in e na ional epu a ion. Mos
in amously, he Olympic Games in Be lin in 1936 we e a massi e p opaganda e en in which
he Nazis no only displayed hei capaci y o o ganize such big e en s bu also p opaga ed
hei ision o acial sup emacy. A gen ina hos ed he 1978 FIFA Wo ld Cup, wi h he mili a y
jun a announcing a peace ul ou namen while he egime’s majo o u e cen e was only se -
e al blocks away om he s adium. Recen ly, non-democ a ic coun ies ha e inc easingly
hos ed majo spo s e en s [4]. China, o example, held he Olympic Summe Games in 2008,
and he Win e Games ook place in Pu in’s home own Sochi. Fo mula 1 aces ake place in
Bah ain, Saudi A abia, he Uni ed A ab Emi a es, and Singapo e. Saudi A abia has been espe-
cially ac i e o e he las yea s, buying majo in luence in o gol and p o essional w es ling and
PLOS ONE
PLOS ONE | h ps://doi.o g/10.1371/jou nal.pone.0308702 Augus 16, 2024 1 / 19
a1111111111
a1111111111
a1111111111
a1111111111
a1111111111
OPEN ACCESS
Ci a ion: Ge schewski J, Gieble H, Hellmeie S,
Ke emoğlu E, Zu¨ n M (2024) The limi s o
spo swashing. How he 2022 FIFA Wo ld Cup
a ec ed a i udes abou Qa a . PLoS ONE 19(8):
e0308702. h ps://doi.o g/10.1371/jou nal.
pone.0308702
Edi o : Je g Gu mann, Uni e si a¨ Hambu g:
Uni e si a Hambu g, GERMANY
Recei ed: Ma ch 28, 2024
Accep ed: July 26, 2024
Published: Augus 16, 2024
Copy igh : ©2024 Ge schewski e al. This is an
open access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o
he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License, which
pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis ibu ion, and
ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal
au ho and sou ce a e c edi ed.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : All da a and
eplica ion iles a e a ailable om he Ha a d
Da a e se (h ps://doi.o g/10.7910/DVN/PKIPXM).
Funding: We g a e ully acknowledge inancial
suppo om he Clus e o Excellence
“Con es a ions o he Libe al Sc ip (SCRIPTS)”,
which is unded by he Ge man Science Founda ion
(DFG; EXC 2055, P ojec -ID: 390715649). The
unde s had no ole in s udy design, da a collec ion
and analysis, decision o publish, o p epa a ion o
he manusc ip .
now ying o es ablish an in e na ionally compe i i e oo ball league [5]. Looking only a hos s
o he Olympic Summe o Win e Games as well as hos s o he FIFA Men’s Wo ld Cup and
applying egime classi ica ions by he Va ie ies o Democ acy P ojec [6], h ee hos s om he
pe iod o 1945 o 2000 a e classi ied as closed au oc acies. Since 2000, and aking in o accoun
al eady selec ed hos s, we al eady coun i e closed au oc acies. In e es ingly, his end ies in
wi h he p oclaimed “end o libe al hegemony” [7] and a “ hi d wa e o au oc a iza ion” [8].
In line wi h his end, he 2022 FIFA Wo ld Cup was hos ed by Qa a , a coun y in he global
bo om 20% in e ms o democ a ic quali y bu among he op en iches coun ies in e ms o
GDP pe capi a [9]. FIFA’s decision o awa d he ou namen o Qa a spa ked s ong bu e y
di e en eac ions. Suppo e s p aised he i s Wo ld Cup in he A ab wo ld and hoped o pos-
i i e impulses o he egion. C i ics poin ed o issues like he exploi a ion o mig an wo ke s,
he opp ession o women and mino i ies, and he lack o democ acy in he coun y. While
Qa a wan ed o use he ou namen o gene a e isibili y on he in e na ional s age and a ac
o eign in es men , ac i is s aimed o use he Wo ld Cup as a ocal poin o shed ligh on he
coun y’s poo human igh s si ua ion. These con o e sies speak o he ques ion o whe he he
use o majo spo s e en s helps o “whi ewash” a coun y’s image—a s a egy o en e e ed o
as “spo swashing”. I can be desc ibed as s a e ac o s’ ac i i ies, o en in coope a ion wi h spo -
ing o ganiza ions, wi h he goal o no jus hiding in o ma ion and decei ing, bu os e ing posi-
i e associa ions wi h he espec i e s a e in he minds o people. I is as a pejo a i e e m,
c i icizing hese ac i i ies, o en used o he e o s o non-democ a ic s a es [10].
P e ious esea ch on he economic, poli ical and socie al implica ions o hos ing spo s
e en s has p ima ily ocused on he domes ic le el wi hou di e en ia ing be ween au ho i a -
ian and democ a ic hos s. O ganizing majo spo s e en s has a signi ican economic impac .
Fo example, and ega dless o he hos na ion’s egime ype, ade o hos coun ies o he
Olympic Games inc eases by 20% on a e age [11] and ou is a i als o hos coun ies
inc ease signi ican ly in mos cases [12]. A he same ime, such mega e en s gene a e subs an-
ial cos s o adminis a ion and planning which o en leads o a ne nega i e esul o hos
ci ies [13]. Acco ding o some, mega-e en s should be seen as “loss-making en u es ha lack
inancial sus ainabili y” [14, 1200]. Foo ball ou namen s can also con ibu e o s a e o
na ion-building, as people a e mo e us ul o o he s and mo e suppo i e o he s a e ollow-
ing spo s ic o ies in in e na ional ou namen s [15]. Mo e gene ally, oo ball a ec s disc im-
ina ion, p o es dynamics, and e en he housing ma ke [16–18].
We know ela i ely li le abou he e ec o “au ho i a ian games” and associa ed spo s-
washing on he pe cep ion o hos coun ies ab oad. While i is open o deba e whe he epu a-
ional conce ns a e he main mo i a ion o au oc a s o hos in e na ional e en s, ecen wo k
on he FIFA Wo ld Cup 1978 in A gen ina shows ha , o p e en nega i e publici y du ing
he e en , he mili a y jun a s a egically inc eased ep ession be o e he games bu no du ing
he e en [4]. Looking o B azil, in he wake o bo h he FIFA Wo ld Cup 2014 and he Olym-
pic Games in Rio de Janei o wo yea s la e , obse e s we e complaining ha he police and
mili a y we e ac ing a oo ha shly and, in some cases illegally, including killings, o ensu e
ha in e na ional isi o s eel sa e du ing spo ing e en s [19]. In he case o Qa a , pundi s
coined he e m spo swashing, e e ing o in o ma ion manipula ion by hos na ions, such as
eplacing o coun e ing nega i e con en , o imp o e hei image ab oad [10,20]. Qa a e en
eac ed o c i ique conce ning he wo king condi ions unde he Ka ala sys em by changing
a ious laws, he eby using he a en ion c ea ed by he Wo ld Cup o showcase he willingness
o adap [21]. Howe e , hese changes p o ed o be mainly cosme ic and ine ec i e [22]—
mo e spo swashing han hones e o m.
Spo e en s d aw in e na ional a en ion and a ec he epu a ion o he hos ab oad, i e-
spec i e o go e nmen s’ in en ions. Being unde he spo ligh o in e na ional audiences can
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Compe ing in e es s: The au ho s ha e decla ed
ha no compe ing in e es s exis .
p o e o be bene icial bu i could also back i e in d awing e en mo e a en ion o illibe al
p ac ices and human igh s abuses.
On he one hand, au ho i y and powe -holde s in gene al in es a lo o inc ease hei pe -
cei ed legi imacy wi h domes ic cons i uencies as well as in e na ional obse e s [23]. Bo h
au ho i a ian and democ a ic go e nmen s go o g ea leng hs o legi imize hei ule domes i-
cally [24], bu hey also ca e abou o eign audiences [25]. Con eying a posi i e image in e na-
ionally may bene i au ho i a ian go e nmen s in a ious ways. Mos mode n au ho i a ian
go e nmen s do no ely any longe on mass ep ession, bu ound a ious ways o “spin” hei
image in much mo e sub le ways [26]. A be e in e na ional s anding may boos domes ic
legi imacy and help alle ia e in e na ional poli ical p essu e [27]. I may also clea he way o
u he economic coope a ion. To imp o e hei epu a ion ab oad, a high-p es ige in e na-
ional e en such as he Wo ld Cup o e s a unique oppo uni y o con ey a pa icula imp es-
sion [28,29]. The success ul bid gene a es a en ion om o he coun ies’ media and o eign
audiences, and he way hos s p esen hemsel es be o e and du ing an e en possibly in lu-
ences how o eign audiences pe cei e hem. Con eying an image o an open, e icien , and
high-pe o ming hos may help o push illibe al p ac ices and human igh s abuses in o he
backg ound. In his way, hos ing majo spo s e en s can be seen as an impo an pa o
“au ho i a ian image managemen ” ab oad [27].
On he o he hand, being unde he spo ligh o he global communi y may back i e by
d awing e en mo e a en ion o poli ical w ongdoings. Hos ing an in e na ional e en may
expose illibe al p ac ices and human igh s abuses and hus in i e naming and shaming cam-
paigns by in e na ional ac o s [30]. Con o e sies a ound he e en may gain in salience and
push in e na ional audiences o o m a i udes owa ds issues o which hey we e no exposed
be o e. This poli iciza ion p ocess [31] may esul in mo e people de eloping a c i ical opinion
o he hos ing na ion by pu ing illibe al p ac ices unde wide public sc u iny. This e ec
depends upon an open public space o c i ical epo ing and should, he e o e especially
apply o audiences in mo e libe al coun ies wi h ee media as well as highe espec o
human igh s and c i ical public discou se. In hese en i onmen s, whi ewashing e o s may
p o e ine ec i e o e en coun e -p oduc i e.
In his pape on he FIFA Wo ld Cup 2022 in Qa a , we p opose a hi d pe spec i e ha
combines he wo concei able e ec s on in e na ional audiences and makes hem con ingen on
he ames and messages ha domina e public discou se ab oad. I assumes ha he e alua ion
o in o ma ion abou spo s e en s in au ho i a ian egimes a ies. Building on aming analysis
[32], such a ia ion s ems bo h om wha in o ma ion is p esen ed as well as how in o ma ion
is p esen ed. C ucial ac o s he e a e he media s uc u e, he quali y o public deba es, and he
con en o epo ing abou he e en . The main ques ion is hen which ames domina e public
sphe es and a e decisi e o epu a ional e ec s o he hos in coun ies ab oad.
The e is li le esea ch on how he FIFA Wo ld Cup in Qa a was po ayed in di e en
coun ies and he same holds o in o ma ion abou mo e gene al issues like human igh s io-
la ions. The ecen s udy by [33] is a no able excep ion. They show ha he Wo ld Cup did no
imp o e Qa a ’s image bu ha i had a posi i e spill-o e e ec on how Ge mans iew o he
A ab coun ies. Ano he s udy [34] ound ha epo ing abou Qa a in newspape s in h ee
Wes Eu opean coun ies and he US was much mo e neu al o e en nega i e han in Chinese
newspape s in he yea be o e he ou namen in Qa a ook place. Simila pa e ns can be
ound o epo ing on mass p o es s demanding he o e h ow o Hosni Muba ak’s egime in
2011, whe e Chinese and A ab media we e mo e p one o epo a o ably abou he go e n-
men , while The Gua dian and he In e na ional He ald T ibune ocused on he opposi ion
mo emen [35]. Finally, NGOs conce ned wi h human igh s ( iola ions) see media a en ion
and in o ma ion poli ics as one o hei mos impo an ools [36]. As access o media ou le s
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o such NGOs is much easie i he e is a high-quali y, plu alis media en i onmen , he e is
mo e c i ical in o ma ion a ailable in such en i onmen s.
In sum, while he legi ima ion and poli iciza ion pe spec i es poin o ei he posi i e o
nega i e e ec s, we aim o p o ide an idea unde which ci cums ances we should expec ei he
posi i e o nega i e e ec s o p e ail by poin ing o he impo ance o ames and he media
s uc u e in he in o ma ion ecei ing coun ies. This pe spec i e pu s a lo o weigh on he
ole o he in o ma ion en i onmen [37], bu lea es oom o o he (indi idual-le el) ac o s
mode a ing he e ec o majo spo s e en s hos ed by au oc acies on o eign public opinion.
Gi en con lic ing expec a ions abou he e ec s o hos ing majo spo s e en s o au ho i-
a ian egimes, his s udy examines da a abou Qa a ’s epu a ion and he e ec o h ee di e -
en ames o Qa a as he hos o he FIFA 2022 Wo ld Cup using an expe imen al app oach.
We i s p opose ha how he e en is amed a ec s indi iduals’ a i udes abou he hos .
Mo eo e , we sugges ha he dominance o a pa icula ame in a ecei ing coun y is depen-
den on i s media s uc u e. To es his claim empi ically, we d aw on a la ge-scale su ey
expe imen ielded jus be o e he beginning o he ou namen wi h mo e han 14,000 espon-
den s in eigh Eu opean coun ies. We p ime esponden s wi h igne es ha (i) emphasize he
human igh s si ua ion in Qa a , (ii) emphasize he e icien and sus ainable o ganiza ion o
he e en , o (iii) me ely men ion he occu ence o he ou namen . A e wa d, we ask o
hei e alua ion o Qa a in i s ole as he hos na ion o ganizing he e en . Ou indings show
ha how he ou namen is amed a ec s how people hink abou he Wo ld Cup in Qa a ,
sugges ing ha bo h backlash and whi ewashing e ec s a e possible. The eby, p o iding a neg-
a i e ame has a s onge e ec in absolu e e ms han emphasizing e iciency and sus ainabil-
i y. Mo eo e , we p o ide en a i e e idence ha coun y-le el di e ences in ame esonance
and Qa a ’s epu a ion can be a ibu ed o he s uc u e o he media and he public in di e -
en coun ies.
Resul s
Ou esul s a e based on a la ge-scale compa a i e su ey expe imen ha we conduc ed in
coope a ion wi h he su ey company Bilendi in eigh Eu opean coun ies: C oa ia, Hunga y,
Ge many, I aly, Romania, Poland, Sweden, and he Uni ed Kingdom. The su ey collec ed
da a on nea ly 2,000 esponden s om each coun y applying quo a sampling. We chose hese
coun ies o include libe al democ acies wi h a high le el o media plu alism and less demo-
c a ic coun ies wi h less ee and mo e oligopolis ic media sys ems. We also a ied he
expec ed s eng h o he men’s oo ball eam. In addi ion, hal o he coun ies did no pa ici-
pa e in he Wo ld Cup, which should lead o less public in e es in he ou namen . While he
usage o online-access panels—e en i hey a e o high quali y such as he ones we used, and as
we only look a eigh coun ies—calls o cau ion conce ning gene alizabili y, his coun y he -
e ogenei y subs an ially inc eases he weigh o ou indings. Mo e in o ma ion on he case
selec ion can be ound below in he Sec ion on Ma e ials and Me hods.
The expe imen was ielded in he weeks be o e he Wo ld Cup’s kick-o om Oc obe 28
o No embe 18, 2022. We unde s and his pe iod as a ime in which esponden s we e al eady
exposed o co e age o he ou namen , bu he e en was a om omnip esen . In e ms o
conse a i e es ing, his cons i u es a middle-g ound si ua ion. Posi i e as well as nega i e
in o ma ion abou he Wo ld Cup in Qa a and he coun y i sel is no comple ely new o
unknown, bu ci izens in he di e en coun ies we e no exposed o news co e age abou he
e en on a daily basis—as was he case du ing he ou namen . We applied quo a sampling
based on age, gende , educa ion, and place o esidence in all eigh coun ies. Whene e appli-
cable, we also use pos -s a i ica ion weigh s based on hese cha ac e is ics, u he inc easing
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ep esen a i eness wi hin he limi s o online access panels. Due o missing alues, he sample
size d ops o oughly 14,000 esponden s o he main analyses. The analysis was p e- egis e ed
[38] and he e a e no subs an ial de ia ions om he espec i e p e-analysis plan (see Ma e ials
and me hods o de ails).
F aming he 2022 Wo ld Cup in Qa a
To in es iga e he po en ial e ec o Qa a hos ing he 2022 FIFA Wo ld Cup on public opin-
ion in o eign coun ies, we embedded a aming expe imen in he su ey. Responden s we e
exposed o di e en “emphasis ames” h ough sho igne es abou he Wo ld Cup in which
we manipula ed how in o ma ion is p esen ed and i s ac ual con en [39]. We de ised h ee
di e en ames abou Qa a as he Wo ld Cup hos : (i) a neu al spo s ame ha desc ibes
some basic and uncon o e sial ac s abou he ou namen , which we assign o a con ol
g oup, (ii) a nega i e human igh s ame ha emphasizes Qa a ’s ques ionable human igh s
eco d, (iii) a posi i e aming ha highligh s he coun y’s e iciency in he o ganiza ion o he
Wo ld Cup. All h ee ames we e based on ac ual in o ma ion o p e-exis ing ex bi s o
inc ease ex e nal alidi y. While he second ame p esen s a mo e nega i e as well as ealis ic
depic ion o Qa a , he hi d ame emphasizes posi i e aspec s and could quali y as spo s-
washing. Fo be e eadabili y, we label he ames (i) neu al, (ii) nega i e, and (iii) posi i e.
The neu al ame se es as he con ol g oup in ou analyses. The ull ex s, hei sou ces, and
expec ed e ec s a e summa ized in Table 2 in he Me hods sec ion below. The ques ionnai e
also included a beha io al ou come measu e placed a e ea men and addi ional analysis
unde lines he alidi y o ou ea men ames (see Table S1 in he S1 File).
Ou ou come measu e is a la en a iable unde lying esponden s’ ag eemen wi h he ol-
lowing h ee s a emen s which we e all measu ed on a scale om 1 ( ully disag ee) o 7 ( ully
ag ee): (i) “The decision o awa d he FIFA Wo ld Cup ou namen o Qa a was easonable”,
which asks abou he ac ual decision o hold he e en in Qa a . (ii) “The FIFA Wo ld Cup will
be well-o ganized by Qa a ”, which e e s o Qa a ’s o ganiza ional e iciency. (iii) “Qa a ’s
epu a ion will imp o e due o hos ing he FIFA Wo ld Cup”, which asks abou he expec ed
e ec s o Qa a as a hos ing na ion. We ex ac he la en a iable based on coun y-speci ic
con i ma o y ac o analyses (see Table S2 in he S1 File). Ou app oach ensu es a b oad pe -
spec i e on a i udes abou Qa a while inc easing measu emen eliabili y. Finally, we escale
he la en measu e o he o iginal scale o he obse able a iables. Hence, highe alues ep e-
sen mo e posi i e a i udes abou Qa a .
The nega i e and posi i e ames signi ican ly shape esponden s’ a i udes owa d Qa a
compa ed o he neu al ame (see also Table S3 in he S1 File). Fig 1 shows subs an ial ea -
men e ec s based on an OLS eg ession model wi h he aming ea men s as independen
a iables. The nega i e human igh s ame leads esponden s o a signi ican ly wo se e alua-
ion o Qa a han he neu al spo s ame. By con as , emphasizing e ec i e o ganiza ion
using a posi i e ame leads o a mo e posi i e assessmen . The e ec s a e subs an i e: The di -
e ence in assessing Qa a as a hos be ween he human igh s and he e iciency ame is close
o h ee-qua e s o a scale poin . The dependen a iable only has a s anda d de ia ion o
1.18, which u he unde lines he ele ance o he iden i ied ea men e ec s. Finally, he ac
ha he nega i e e ec is la ge is ully in line wi h he well-known “nega i i y bias” and loss
a e sion p oposed by socio-psychological and cogni i e heo ies [40].
Di e ences ac oss coun ies
Wha a e he di e ence be ween coun ies? The expe imen was ca ied ou simul aneously in
eigh coun ies: C oa ia, Hunga y, Ge many, I aly, Romania, Poland, Sweden, and he Uni ed
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Kingdom. All coun ies a e pa o Eu ope, a e o ha e been membe s o he Eu opean Union,
and a e no adi ional allies o Qa a . Ye , hese Eu opean coun ies di e signi ican ly on key
dimensions ha a ec he expec ed “ esonance” [41] o e ec i eness o ou di e en ames.
Fi s , hal o he coun ies did no pa icipa e in he ou namen . The e o e, one could expec
he salience o he Wo ld Cup in gene al and e en - ela ed media co e age o be lowe in Hun-
ga y, Romania, Sweden, and I aly. Second, he in o ma ion en i onmen a ies in impo an
ways. Some coun ies (Ge many and Sweden) ha e high le els o media eedom and a plu al-
is media sys em wi h a dominance o so-called high quali y media. In o he s, such as Romania
and Hunga y, he e is mo e s a e in e en ion and less plu alism in he media. These coun ies
ep esen oligopolis ic media ma ke s ha could inhibi c i ical epo ing abou e en s like he
ou namen in Qa a [42]. Thi dly, he e is ample he e ogenei y when i comes o he quali y
o democ acy wi h Sweden on one end and Hunga y, classi ied as an elec o al au oc acy, on
he o he [9]. Finally, he e is also subs an ial a ia ion when i comes o he age o democ acy
as well as geog aphic loca ion and associa ed cha ac e is ics.
Desc ip i e s a is ics om ou su ey showcase he a ia ion in a i udes owa ds Qa a
ac oss he eigh coun ies. Among o he hings, o example, we asked esponden s o assess
he human igh s si ua ion in Qa a be o e ou expe imen al in e en ion. Acco ding o
Fig 2, in Ge many and Sweden, a ound 90% o esponden s ha e a a he nega i e image o
he human igh s si ua ion, compa ed o only abou 70% in I aly and Poland. Responden s
Fig 1. T ea men e ec s o he posi i e and nega i e ames compa ed o he con ol g oup. Es ima es based on OLS eg ession
wi h coun y dummies and pos -s a i ica ion weigh s. S anda d e o s clus e ed a he coun y le el (N = 14,017). Ou come: la en
measu e o a i udes abou Qa a unde lying esponden s’ ag eemen (1 = ully disag ee, 7 = ully ag ee) wi h he ollowing h ee
i ems: (i) “The decision o awa d he FIFA Wo ld Cup ou namen o Qa a was easonable”, which asks abou he ac ual decision o
hold he e en in Qa a . (ii) “The FIFA Wo ld Cup will be well-o ganized by Qa a ”, which e e s o Qa a ’s o ganiza ional e iciency.
(iii) “Qa a ’s epu a ion will imp o e due o hos ing he FIFA Wo ld Cup.” Figu e based on eg ession esul s om Model 1 in
Table S3 in he S1 File.
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in he Uni ed Kingdom all somewhe e in be ween. Romania s ands ou as he only coun y
whe e he o e all assessmen o human igh s in Qa a is balanced, and a no able sha e o
esponden s e en e alua e he p o ec ion o human igh s a he posi i ely. Hunga y and
C oa ia lie in be ween Poland and Romania. These desc ip i e indings show ha he e a e
eno mous di e ences ega ding he human igh s epu a ion o Qa a , which makes i highly
likely ha he e is also conside able c oss-coun y a ia ion in public discou se abou he
ou namen .
To assess hese di e ences ac oss he coun ies in ou sample mo e sys ema ically, we an
he eg ession analysis sepa a ely o each coun y (see Table S4 in he S1 File). Fig 3 summa-
izes he indings. On he x-axis, we plo he a e age a i udes abou he Wo ld Cup in Qa a
o he con ol g oup o p o ide a baseline o each coun y. The y-axis shows he e ec size o
ou ea men s measu ed by calcula ing he di e ence be ween he e ec s o he posi i e and
nega i e ames. This measu e ells us how s ongly esponden s eac o he posi i e and nega-
i e ames in each coun y. The igu e shows ha he e is a co ela ion be ween baseline al-
ues and e ec size—wi h I aly and he Uni ed Kingdom a bi o he imagined line. In
Ge many and Sweden, whe e he con ol g oups showed mo e nega i e a i udes abou Qa a
a he ime o he in e iew, he ames ha e a much smalle e ec compa ed o Romania and
Fig 2. Dis ibu ion o esponses on he assessmen o he human igh s si ua ion in Qa a by coun y. The x-axis plo s he sha e o esponden s wi h
nega i e (le o 0) and posi i e assessmen s ( igh o 0) espec i ely on a 7-poin scale whe e 1 = “no espec ed a all” and 7 = “well- espec ed” o each
coun y (y-axis). Pe cen ages pe coun y indica e he agg ega e sha e o all esponden s wi h a nega i e (below 4) and wi h a posi i e assessmen (abo e
4) espec i ely. Numbe o alid esponses = 11774. Missing alues (“don’ know”, “don’ wan o espond”) omi ed om he g aph.
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Hunga y, whe e esponden s had a much mo e posi i e image o Qa a and also i s human
igh s ack eco d (see abo e). The iden i ied coun y di e ences a e qui e subs an ial.
As s a ed abo e, we a gued ha he media and in o ma ion en i onmen a e key in shaping
public discou se abou au ho i a ian hos coun ies o majo spo s e en s. The e o e, we also
include in o ma ion on le els o media plu alism in each coun y in Fig 3. The da a comes
om he Sus ainable Go e nance Indica o s (SGI) 2022 [42] and anks media sys ems om
oligopolis ic o di e si ied o public owne ship on a scale om 1 o 10. The esul ing igu e
shows a endency ha aming e ec s a e s onge in coun ies wi h oligopolis ic media own-
e ship s uc u es. A he same ime, he coun ies ha did no quali y o he Wo ld Cup (Swe-
den, I aly, Hunga y, Romania) also show a endency o g ea e e ec sizes compa ed o
pa icipa ing coun ies wi h simila le els o media plu alism. Again, I aly is an ou lie as we
would expec a smalle e ec simila o he o he non-pa icipa ing coun ies. Thinking abou
how impo an oo ball is in I aly, his could be explained by he coun y’s unexpec ed ailu e
o quali y o he Wo ld Cup esul ing in low public in e es in he ou namen . Taken
oge he , his is ini ial e idence o ou claim abou he ele ance o he in o ma ion en i on-
men in shaping public discou se abou “au ho i a ian games”. Whe e in e es (pa icipa ing
coun ies) and media plu alism a e high, esponden s a e mo e c i ical o Qa a and a e less
likely o be swayed by posi i e o nega i e ames. Fo he nega i e ame, his is p obably due
o p e-exis ing knowledge abou he si ua ion in Qa a . A he same ime, spo swashing— he
posi i e ame—is less success ul as ecipien s a e highly likely o ha e ecei ed de ia ing and
mo e accu a e in o ma ion as well. While he eigh coun ies clea ly di e on se e al o he
Fig 3. He e ogeneous ea men e ec s. He e ogenei y o aming e ec s eng h ac oss coun ies wi h ea men e ec size on he
y-axis and he baseline (in e cep ) o he con ol g oup on he x-axis. Da a on media plu alism aken om he SGI [42], colo -coded
acco ding o le el o plu alism wi h ligh g ay indica ing lowe and da k g ay highe le els o media plu alism (1 = lowes ,
10 = highes ). E ec sizes and igu e based on eg ession esul s wi h pos -s a i ica ion weigh s om Table S4 in he S1 File.
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esidence. O e all, we o iginally su eyed 15,930 indi iduals in all eigh coun ies. Fo ou
main analyses, we emo ed hose pa icipan s om ou sample who spen less han i e min-
u es on he ques ionnai e and hose who ailed a en ion checks, which lea es us wi h 14,626
esponden s. This ule o emo e speede s and ina en i e esponden s was speci ied in he
p e-analysis plan. The numbe o obse a ions in ou eg ession analysis is sligh ly lowe due
o missingness (“don’ know” and “don’ wan o espond”) on all a iables used o measu e
ou ou come a iable (N = 14,017). The su ey was ielded be ween Oc obe 28 and No embe
18, 2022 and esponden s consen ed by pa icipa ing in he online su ey.
Measu emen
Ou come a iable and mani es i ems. Ou main ou come a iable cons i u es a la en
a iable and i is based on h ee i ems measu ing esponden s’ a i udes abou Qa a and he
FIFA Wo ld Cup. We asked esponden s whe he o no hey ag eed wi h he ollowing
s a emen s on a scale om 1 ( ully disag ee) o 7 ( ully ag ee): (1) The decision o awa d he
FIFA Wo ld Cup ou namen o Qa a was easonable; (2) he FIFA Wo ld Cup will be well-
o ganized by Qa a ; (3) Qa a ’s epu a ion will imp o e due o hos ing he FIFA Wo ld Cup.
The h ee measu es cap u e di e en aspec s o Qa a hos ing he Wo ld Cup. The i s i em
is abou he pas (awa d decision), whe eas he o he wo i ems conce n he nea (o ganiza-
ion o he ou namen ) and mid- e m u u e ( epu a ion e ec s). I em o de was andom-
ized o each esponden . We un coun y-speci ic con i ma o y ac o analyses o con i m
ha all h ee s a emen s ap in o he same unde lying dimension. We collapse esponden s’
answe s in o a la en measu e o a i udes abou Qa a as he hos o he FIFA Wo ld Cup by
ex ac ing he la en a iable. C onbach’s Alpha alues a e e y high and hey ange be ween
0.78 and 0.86. Running sepa a e models o ex ac he ac o s cons i u es a mo e conse a-
i e es as i allows o s uc u al di e ences be ween coun ies. Mo e in o ma ion can be
ound in sec ion S2 in he S1 File. The la en a iable is escaled o he o iginal se en-poin
scale.
T ea men s and andomiza ion. In ou su ey, we ely on a aming expe imen . As we
a e in e es ed in ci izens’ a i udes conce ning an au oc a ic egime such as Qa a hos ing he
ou namen and hei e alua ions he eo , p o iding di e en in o ma ion ames cons i u es
a e y p omising app oach [49]. We implemen emphasis ames which e e o di e ences
no only in how in o ma ion is p esen ed bu also in he ac ual con en [39]. We use h ee di -
e en ames o p o ide in o ma ion abou he ou namen : a posi i e e iciency ame, a neu-
al spo s ame, and a nega i e human igh s ame. We use ac ual in o ma ion o p e-
exis ing ex bi s o all h ee ames o inc ease ex e nal alidi y. This is c ucial when unning
su ey expe imen s in gene al and aming expe imen s speci ically [50]. We andomly assign
ou h ee issue ames o esponden s. Responden s who ecei e he spo s ame o m ou
con ol g oup as hey a e p esen ed wi h neu al in o ma ion abou he Wo ld Cup aken om
Wikipedia. The e iciency ame cons i u es ou i s ea men , which we label “posi i e”, as
esponden s in his g oup ecei e in o ma ion abou Qa a ’s e icien o ganiza ion o he ou -
namen and sus ainabili y e o s. He e, he ame is inspi ed by in o ma ion om he Qa a
Minis y o Tou ism. Ou second ea men , labeled “nega i e”, is based on he human igh s
ame, which p esen s esponden s wi h in o ma ion highligh ing Qa a ’s illibe al p ac ices
and lack o espec o human and wo ke s’ igh s as p esen ed in an o iginal in es iga ion by
The Gua dian. Table 2 gi es he wo ding o each ame ha esponden s om ou con ol and
he wo ea men g oups espec i ely, ead be o e p oceeding wi h ou su ey. Randomiza ion
was ca ied ou by he su ey company and applied coun y by coun y. The e we e no issues
wi h he andomiza ion p ocess.
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S a is ical analysis
Fi s , we es ima e he causal e ec s o he di e en ames on esponden s’ assessmen o
Qa a as he hos o he Wo ld Cup measu ed as a la en a iable. The e o e, we an OLS
eg essions wi h he andomly assigned ames as he independen a iables and ou la en
a iable as he dependen a iable. Ou main independen a iable is a ac o a iable ep e-
sen ing he ea men g oups o measu e he ames’ e ec s. As speci ied in he p e-analysis
plan, we use he s anda d p<.05 c i e ia o de e mining i he esul s a e signi ican ly di -
e en om hose expec ed i he null hypo hesis we e co ec . The main eg ession model
only includes ou ea men a iable and coun y dummies o abso b all coun y-le el
ac o s. S anda d e o s a e clus e ed a he coun y le el as well. All eg essions include
pos -s a i ica ion weigh s on he indi idual le el o u he inc ease ep esen a i eness.
Fu he mo e, we added weigh s on he coun y le el in a way ha assigns iden ical weigh s
o he sum o all esponden s o he coun y. We es ima ed he weigh s based on an i e a i e
p opo ional i ing algo i hm [51]. The main eg ession able in he S1 File shows a signi i-
can e ec o he wo aming ea men s compa ed o he con ol g oup (spo s/neu al
aming). Gi en ha we andomize ea men assignmen , we do no need o include a i-
ables o adjus o con ounding. Ne e heless, we e- an ou main eg ession model, includ-
ing a se ies o indi idual-le el con ols such as gende , age, educa ion, poli ical in e es , le -
igh sel -placemen , and in e es in oo ball, ob aining nea -iden ical esul s. We also con-
duc ed se e al addi ional obus ness checks (see abo e) and all he in o ma ion can be
ound in he S1 File.
Suppo ing in o ma ion
S1 File. Suppo ing in o ma ion.
(PDF)
Table 2. Expe imen al se up and issue ames.
T ea men g oup Issue ame
Spo s (neu al) The wen y-second FIFA Wo ld Cup akes place om No embe 20 h o Decembe 18 h.
The ou namen o ganize , which akes place e e y ou yea s, is he Emi a e o Qa a . Due
o he wea he condi ions in Qa a , he ou namen will no ake place as usual in he
summe mon hs. Thi y- wo na ions will compe e in he ou namen and he e will be all in
all six y- ou games. [Sou ce: Wikipedia]
Human igh s
(nega i e)
The s aging o he FIFA Wo ld Cup in Qa a has caused some con o e sy in he un-up o
he e en . Fo example, he wo king condi ions o o eign wo ke s we e much c i icized.
Acco ding o epo s, abou 6,500 mig an wo ke s ha e died since 2010 while building
in as uc u e o he Wo ld Cup. In addi ion, homosexuali y is s ill p ohibi ed by law in
Qa a , women a e s ongly disc imina ed agains and only a mino i y o ci izens has he
igh o o e [Sou ce: Repo ing by The Gua dian]
E iciency (posi i e) Qa a is he i s A ab coun y o o ganize a FIFA Wo ld Cup which is supposed o spu
economic g ow h in he egion. Among o he hings, Qa a buil S adion 974, one o he
mos mode n oo ball s adiums in he wo ld. I consis s la gely o ecycled ma e ial and can
be disman led a e he end o he Wo ld Cup. The new s adiums a e so well connec ed ha
ans can wa ch mul iple games in one day and 20,000 olun ee s will help ac oss a eas om
heal h and sa e y o medical and language se ices. [Sou ce: Qa a Minis y o Tou ism]
Responden s we e andomly assigned o one o he h ee ea men g oups and we e asked o ead he espec i e
ame.
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Au ho Con ibu ions
Concep ualiza ion: Johannes Ge schewski, Heiko Gieble , Sebas ian Hellmeie , Eda Ke e-
moğlu, Michael Zu¨ n.
Fo mal analysis: Heiko Gieble , Sebas ian Hellmeie , Eda Ke emoğlu.
Funding acquisi ion: Johannes Ge schewski, Heiko Gieble , Michael Zu¨ n.
P ojec adminis a ion: Heiko Gieble .
Visualiza ion: Sebas ian Hellmeie , Eda Ke emoğlu.
W i ing – o iginal d a : Heiko Gieble , Sebas ian Hellmeie , Eda Ke emoğlu.
W i ing – e iew & edi ing: Johannes Ge schewski, Heiko Gieble , Sebas ian Hellmeie , Eda
Ke emoğlu, Michael Zu¨ n.
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