Becke , Max; Flach, Johanna; on Onda za, Nicolai
Resea ch Repo
The c eeping in eg a ion o a - igh pa ies in Eu ope:
Whe e a - igh pa ies a e in eg a ed in o he EU sys em
and whe e hey a e no
SWP Commen , No. 39/2025
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Ge man Ins i u e o In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s,
Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Becke , Max; Flach, Johanna; on Onda za, Nicolai (2025) : The c eeping
in eg a ion o a - igh pa ies in Eu ope: Whe e a - igh pa ies a e in eg a ed in o he EU sys em
and whe e hey a e no , SWP Commen , No. 39/2025, S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP),
Be lin,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18449/2025C39
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NO.
39
SEPTEMBER 2025
In oduc ion
The C eeping In eg a ion o
Fa - igh Pa ies in Eu ope
Whe e Fa - igh Pa ies A e In eg a ed in o he EU Sys em and Whe e They A e No
Max Becke , Johanna Flach and Nicolai on Onda za
The Eu opean Union ope a es la gely in acco dance wi h he p inciples o consensus
democ acy – ha is, i seeks o in eg a e as many pa ies spanning he poli ical spec-
um o i s membe s a es as possible. Amid he ecen g ow h o a - igh pa ies a
bo h he na ional and Eu opean le el, his app oach has led o he inc eased pa ici-
pa ion o such o ces in EU ins i u ions. Analysis o key ac o s a he EU le el shows
ha since no la e han he 2024 Eu opean elec ions, ep esen a i es o a - igh pa -
ies ha e been in ol ed in all majo EU decisions. The cen es o hei in luence a e
he Eu opean Council and he Council o he EU, whe e hey pa icipa e as leade s o
pa ne s in na ional go e nmen s. Bu hey a e inc easingly becoming mo e in luen-
ial in he Eu opean Pa liamen , which has shi ed o he igh and whe e al e na i e
majo i ies a e now possible. A he same ime, signi ican di e ences emain be ween
he a - igh pa ies. Ul ima ely, he ex en o hei in luence and which a - igh
end p edomina es wi hin he EU sys em depends mainly on he la ges o ce in
Eu opean poli ics – he Eu opean People’s Pa y.
Fo se e al yea s now, a - igh pa ies ha e
been signi ican ly gaining g ound in many
EU membe s a es. In he 2024 Eu opean
elec ions, suppo o hese o ces inc eased
in 22 o he 27 EU coun ies. I independen
membe s o he Eu opean Pa liamen (MEPs)
a e excluded, a - igh pa ies now hold jus
o e a qua e (26 pe cen ) o he sea s in
he Eu opean Pa liamen (EP) (see SWP
Commen 44/2024). Though s ill a om
enjoying a majo i y, hey ha e eached a
s eng h a which hey a e able o in luence
he balance o powe wi hin he EU’s poli i-
cal sys em – a sys em ha is gea ed owa ds
consensus and b oad majo i ies. Bu how
a does his in luence al eady ex end?
In he ollowing analysis, “ a igh ” is
used o e e o “(populis ) adical”, na ional-
conse a i e and “ex eme” a ian s o igh -
wing poli ics. I se es o designa e collec-
i e poli ical ac o s a he Eu opean le el
who a e o be ound on he ou e igh
edge o he ideological le - igh spec um
and he e o e o he igh o he Ch is ian
Democ a ic-Conse a i e pa ies ha
belong o he Eu opean People’s Pa y (EPP).
This means ha he classi ica ion o pa ies
as “ a igh ” in his analysis is based in he
SWP Commen 39
Sep embe 2025
2
i s ins ance on hei membe ship o one
o he h ee EP poli ical g oups o he igh
o he EPP: he Eu opean Conse a i es and
Re o mis s (ECR), he Pa io s o Eu ope (P E)
and he Eu ope o So e eign Na ions (ESN)
g oup. In he second ins ance, he au ho s
ha e examined whe he he pa y in ques-
ion was classi ied as “ a igh ” in he
esea ch p ojec The PopuLis .
F agmen a ion wi hin he
‘ a - igh ’ camp
The a - igh camp emains highly ag-
men ed a he Eu opean le el. The ECR
g oup, which is conside ed “mode a e”,
ep esen s na ional conse a i e and “so ”
Eu oscep ic posi ions. Founded in 2009,
i eme ged om a coope a ion ini ia i e
be ween he UK’s Conse a i e Pa y and
Poland’s Law and Jus ice (PiS) pa y. O e
he yea s, i has expanded o include
na ional-conse a i e and EU-c i ical pa -
ies bu does no p esen i sel as a poli ical
o ce adically opposed o Eu opean in e-
g a ion. Ra he , i is c i ical o he cu en
poli ical cou se o EU ins i u ions, which
i belie es a e pu suing a ede alis agenda
ha unde mines he so e eign y o he
membe s a es.
Du ing p e ious legisla i e pe iods o
he EP, he ECR g oup o en played a co-
ope a i e ole. I s membe pa ies, includ-
ing Gio gia Meloni’s B o he s o I aly (F a-
elli d’I alia) pa y and Poland’s PiS, o ed
wi h he EPP on many issues and managed
o p ojec an image o being able o wo k
wi h o he o ces in he pa liamen . How-
e e , hei na ional-conse a i e o ien a ion
is clea ly e iden on issues such as mig a-
ion, equali y and he ule o law; and his
makes i di icul o clea ly dis inguish he
ECR om he P E and ESN g oups in e ms
o subs ance.
Pos -B exi , he “ha d Eu oscep icism”
ad oca ed by la ge pa s o he P E g oup is
aimed p edominan ly no a lea ing he EU
bu a undamen ally e e sing Eu opean
in eg a ion. The ul ima e goal is o signi i-
can ly cu ail he powe s o he Eu opean
Commission and he Eu opean Pa liamen
and e u n o a Eu ope ha is o ganised
p ima ily on an in e go e nmen al basis
and engages in economic coope a ion only.
In e nally, he g oup is in luenced by la ge
membe pa ies such as Vik o O bán’s
Fidesz and F ance’s Na ional Rally (Rassem-
blemen Na ional) unde Ma ine Le Pen and
Jo dan Ba della.
A he same ime, he P E g oup is in-
c easingly showing willingness o ansi ion
om undamen al opposi ion o playing an
ac i e ole in policymaking – o example,
by illing he pos o appo eu o he
nego ia ions on se ing he new clima e a -
ge o 2040. Fo i s pa , he ESN g oup,
which includes some igh -wing ex emis
pa ies, has main ained he cha ac e o an
“A D plus” g oup ha is unable o gain any
eal signi icance in he EP owing o i s un-
damen al opposi ion ole and small size.
Gains a he na ional le el
Besides poli ical shi s a he Eu opean
le el, i is, abo e all, na ional dynamics ha
de e mine he ex en o he in luence ha
poli ical pa ies wield wi hin he EU sys em.
This is e iden no leas when a - igh pa -
ies ei he assume go e nmen esponsibil-
i y o gain blocking posi ions, as he new
Polish p esiden is cu en ly able o do. Bu
e en i a - igh ac o s a he na ional le el
all sho o gaining execu i e powe , hei
s onge p esence in he na ional pa lia-
men can bols e hei in luence o such an
ex en ha i e en ually has an impac a
he EU le el. This is pa icula ly he case in
hose Membe S a es whe e a - igh pa ies
a e he leading opposi ion o ce, as indica ed
by opinion polls o pa liamen a y s eng h,
such as in F ance o Ge many, as hey exe
conside able in luence on he discou se on
Eu opean policy.
As o Sep embe 2025, a - igh pa ies
head he go e nmen s o ou membe
s a es – Belgium, I aly, he Czech Republic
and Hunga y. The pa ies in powe in Bel-
gium (N-VA) and he Czech Republic (ODS)
belong o he mo e mode a e wing o he
SWP Commen 39
Sep embe 2025
3
ECR. Hunga y is he excep ion among he
ou membe s a es ha ha e a - igh pa -
ies a he head o go e nmen : i s uling
Fidesz pa y belongs o he P E g oup o he
EP. In i e membe s a es – Bulga ia, Fin-
land, I aly, C oa ia and Slo akia – a - igh
pa ies se e as junio pa ne s in go e n-
men coali ions, while he Sweden Demo-
c a s pa y (ECR) has been suppo ing ha
coun y’s mino i y go e nmen since 2022.
Slo akia is a special case: a a - igh pa y
(SNS) ha is no ep esen ed in he EP se es
as junio pa ne in he go e nmen o
P ime Minis e Robe Fico and his o igi-
nally le -wing pa y, Sme . The la e ,
which was expelled om he P og essi e
Alliance o Socialis s and Democ a s (S&D)
g oup o he EP, is mo ing inc easingly o
he inges o he poli ical spec um. And
since Gee Wilde s’s PVV le he Du ch
uling coali ion, he only EU membe s a e
o ha e a go e nmen wi h a P E o ESN
pa y as coali ion pa ne is I aly wi h he
Lega (P E). Thus, one hi d o all membe -
s a e go e nmen s a e ei he led o sup-
po ed by a - igh pa ies.
Also e iden om he pa y-poli ical
composi ion o he membe -s a e go e n-
men s is he signi icance o he EPP g oup:
in se en o he nine coun ies in which a -
igh o ces a e pa o he go e nmen –
he wo excep ions a e Slo akia and Hun-
ga y – EPP pa ies a e included in he go -
e ning coali ion.
Looking ahead, a sys ema ic analysis o
he na ional elec ions ha a e due o ake
place wi hin he EU by he end o 2027
shows ha he ollowing is likely o be pa -
icula ly ele an : in he Czech Republic
ANO (P E) is leading in he polls ahead
o he elec ions due in ea ly Oc obe 2025.
Unlike he ODS (ECR), ANO has sough
o join o ces wi h O bán’s Fidesz and,
oge he wi h Slo akia, a new a - igh
Viseg ád io could be o med (wi hou , o
he ime being, he pa icipa ion o Poland).
I is equally concei able, howe e , ha
he e will be a coun e ailing end in
Hunga y: a e many yea s o domina ing
he domes ic poli ical landscape, Fidesz is
cu en ly polling in second place in he
un-up o na ional pa liamen a y elec ions
due o ake place in Ap il 2026. The yea
2027 is likely o be pa icula ly impo an :
p esiden ial elec ions a e due in F ance,
whe e he Na ional Rally is clea ly in he
lead. In Spain, Vox (P E) is cu en ly he
hi d-s onges o ce; and in Poland, he PiS
(ECR) is once again polling neck and neck
wi h Donald Tusk’s Ci ic Coali ion (EPP).
Thus, he e could be signi ican poli ical
change in h ee o he la ges and mos in-
luen ial membe s s a es in 2027, esul ing
in he inc eased in luence o he a igh
in go e ning coali ions ac oss Eu ope. A
he same ime, his would coincide wi h he
c i ical phase o nego ia ions on he nex
Mul iannual Financial F amewo k (MFF),
a ec ing poli ical s abili y a he EU le el.
In luence a he EU le el
Despi e he g owing elec o al success o a -
igh pa ies and hei inc eased pa icipa-
ion in go e nmen s a he na ional le el,
his has no ye ansla ed in o equal in lu-
ence a he Eu opean le el. The e a e wo
con lic ing p inciples a wo k he e.
On he one hand, owing o he dual
legi imacy endowed by he membe s a es
and hei ci izens, he EU is gea ed owa ds
in eg a ing as all majo poli ical o ces as
a as possible and making as many deci-
sions as possible by consensus o h ough
b oad majo i ies. The aim is o a oid s uc-
u al mino i ies and ensu e ha he e is
b oad-based democ a ic legi imacy ac oss
he EU, which emains e y he e ogeneous.
I is only he EP ha is based on he pu e
majo i y p inciple; bu e en he e, i is usual
o o e sized and equen ly changing
majo i ies ha co e he b oad democ a ic
spec um o be o med.
On he o he hand, because o hei
expe iences du ing Wo ld Wa II, many
Eu opean socie ies ha e de eloped a co don
sani ai e a ound a - igh pa ies. Acco d-
ingly, despi e hei g owing elec o al suc-
cess, hese o ces we e long excluded om
Eu opean consensus democ acy; be o e
he ea ly 2020s, hey we e a ely in ol ed
SWP Commen 39
Sep embe 2025
4
in na ional go e nmen s. Thus, hey ha e
been o li le ele ance o he Council sys-
em and we e excluded om he o ma ion
o majo i ies in he Eu opean Pa liamen .
Wi h hose o ces now gaining in luence a
bo h he na ional and Eu opean le el, his
is beginning o change: hei inc eased pa -
icipa ion in he EU ins i u ions is al eady
e iden .
Di ec in luence in he Eu opean
Council and he Council o he EU
The mos di ec channel o in luence o
na ional go e nmen s is h ough he Coun-
cil s uc u e o he EU, which is whe e
he membe s a es ep esen hei in e es s.
The e is no co don sani ai e agains go e n-
men s wi h a - igh pa ies he e. The only
ins umen a ailable is he suspension
o ce ain membe ship igh s, such as he
igh o o e, in he e en o a se ious and
pe sis en iola ion o he EU’s undamen-
al alues (A icle 7 TEU). Howe e , his
“nuclea op ion” equi es a unanimous o e
by all o he membe s a es and has no ye
been used (see SWP-Ak uell 50/2024). Mo e-
o e , na ional go e nmen s gene ally ake
ca e wi hin he EU sys em o show espec
o one ano he la gely i espec i e o hei
poli ical agendas. While in 2000, he pa -
icipa ion o he FPÖ (now P E) in he newly
o med coali ion in Vienna led o he iso-
la ion o he Aus ian go e nmen by he
hen 14 o he membe s a es – a mo e ha
was la e e e sed – he inclusion o he
PVV as he la ges coali ion pa ne in he
Du ch go e nmen a qua e o a cen u y
o so la e (in June 2024) was ea ed by
Eu opean pa ne s as no hing ou o he
o dina y.
I is in he Eu opean Council, which is
composed o he heads o s a e and go e n-
men , ha he poli ical leanings o na ional
go e nmen s ha e he mos di ec impac .
As o Sep embe 2025, he Eu opean Coun-
cil is domina ed by hose na ional leade s
who belong o EPP pa ies (11 ou o 27
membe s, ep esen ing 43.5 pe cen o he
EU popula ion). Th ee membe s (Belgium,
I aly, Czech Republic) a e om he ECR
camp and play a ole commensu a e wi h
he size o hei espec i e coun ies – in
pa icula , Gio gia Meloni as head o he
I alian go e nmen . Howe e , unlike in he
EPP and S&D, he e is no sys ema ic coo di-
na ion ahead o Eu opean Council mee ings
in ei he he ECR o he P E. In any case,
Vik o O bán is cu en ly he only ep esen-
a i e o he P E in he Eu opean Council,
whe e he s ands ou on accoun o his
g owing aliena ion om he es o he EU
and his ansac ional use o e oes.
Since he Eu opean Council makes deci-
sions by unanimous o e – wi h a ew
excep ions, such as he nomina ion o he
p esiden o he Commission – he e is a
s ong po en ial o blockades. Clea di e -
ences exis be ween he ECR and he P E
in his ega d: while ha dly a Eu opean
Council mee ing passes wi hou O bán
and, inc easingly, Slo ak P ime Minis e
Fico h ea ening o impose a e o, heads o
go e nmen om he ECR a e an in eg al
pa o he nego ia ing ounds and com-
p omise building ha ake place on he
sidelines o he Eu opean Council. How-
e e , unde he in luence o T ump’s sec-
ond p esidency, many membe s a es a e
inc easingly willing o isola e e o playe s
o ake decisions ou side he EU amewo k
in o de o ensu e hey a e able o ac . Fo
example, in 2025 he Eu opean Council has
issued se e al s a emen s in he EU-26 o -
ma – ha is, wi hou Hunga y – on
Uk aine.
The si ua ion is di e en in he Council
o he EU, whe e he membe s a es a e
ep esen ed by hei minis e s, leading o
cons an ly changing pa y-poli ical con-
s ella ions owing o he di e en coali ion
composi ions. In May 2025, o ins ance,
e en be o e he PVV le he Du ch go e n-
men , he Du ch Minis y o Fo eign A ai s,
led by a Conse a i e, spea headed a g oup
o 20 EU membe s a es ha accused Hun-
ga y o iola ing undamen al EU alues.
The g oup sha ply c i icised Hunga y in he
Council o he EU o i s ac ions agains he
Budapes P ide Pa ade.The in luence o
go e nmen s in he Council o he EU also
a ies depending on he decision-making
SWP Commen 39
Sep embe 2025
5
p ocedu e. Whe e unanimi y is equi ed –
o example, in o eign and secu i y policy
o enla gemen policy – he same applies
as in he Eu opean Council: indi idual
go e nmen s can block decisions a any
ime by e oing hem o o cing conces-
sions; bu in o es by quali ied majo i y,
indi idual membe s a es can be ou o ed.
While na ional go e nmen s gene ally
s i e o consensus and ou o ing emains
he excep ion (see SWP Commen 16/2024),
Hunga y once again s ands ou he e. In
2024, i o ed “no” in 15.8 pe cen o
all public o es in he Council o he EU,
which was mo e equen e en han he
Uni ed Kingdom be o e B exi . Nei he I aly
no he Czech Republic s and ou in his
way: in e ms o o ing beha iou in he
Council o he EU, bo h a e o be ound in
he middle o he pack (see SWP Council
Moni o ).
The o ma ion o a blocking mino i y –
ha is, a g oup o a leas ou membe
s a es ep esen ing a leas 35 pe cen o
he EU popula ion – is c ucial o in luenc-
ing decisions ha equi e only a quali ied
majo i y in he Council o he EU. Com-
bined, I aly, Hunga y, he Czech Republic
and Belgium cu en ly accoun o a ound
20 pe cen and, oge he wi h Slo akia,
some 21 pe cen . This means ha hey all
sho o a blocking mino i y; howe e , i
a - igh pa ies we e o gain powe in jus
one la ge membe s a e (such as F ance), a
blocking mino i y would be possible. Mo e
impo an , howe e , is he ac ha so a ,
he go e nmen s o hese coun ies ha e
o med nei he a cohe en g oup no a co-
o dina ed poli ical o ce – he coali ion
cons ella ions and he ideological lines o
he espec i e a - igh pa ies a e cu en ly
oo di e se o ha o happen.
Ins i u ional di e en ia ion and
p ac ical coope a ion in he EP
Since he beginning o he cu en legis-
la i e pe iod, wo pa allel de elopmen s
ha e been e iden in he EP. Fi s , he e has
been inc easing ins i u ional di e en ia ion
o e he co don sani ai e in a ou o he
ECR g oup, which is much mo e deeply in-
eg a ed in o he EU sys em han ei he he
P E o he ESN. In he p e ious e m, he
ECR g oup was ep esen ed in he Bu eau o
he EP and was en us ed wi h he chai o
he Budge Commi ee. I now has wo ice-
p esiden s in he Bu eau and chai s h ee
commi ees, including hose dealing wi h
such in luen ial issues as he budge and
ag icul u e. The P E g oup, on he o he
hand, despi e i s nominal s eng h, is ins i-
u ionally ma ginalised by he EP majo i y,
as is he ESN g oup. Acco dingly, hey a e
no ep esen ed in he Bu eau, no do hey
hold any commi ee chai manships (see
SWP Commen 44/2024 ). Howe e , in July
2025, he P E assumed he pos o appo -
eu o he nego ia ions on se ing he new
EU clima e a ge o 2040, while he ECR
secu ed he co esponding pos o he
planned EU Space Ac . Thus, he wo a -
igh g oups a e leading he EP’s nego ia-
ions wi h he Council o he EU and he
Commission on wo key legisla i e p ojec s,
which gi es hem he oppo uni y o exe -
cise signi ican in luence o e he design
o he legisla ion. Al hough he majo i y
in he EP con inues o be based la gely on
he p o-Eu opean majo i y o he EPP, S&D,
Renew and, o some ex en , he G eens,
c acks a e inc easingly appea ing in he
long-es ablished co don sani ai e.
Second, new o ms o p ac ical coope a-
ion ha e eme ged in he EP. As ea ly as
Sep embe 2024, jus a ew mon hs a e
he new Pa liamen was cons i u ed, he
EPP, he ECR, he P E and pa s o he ESN
o med a majo i y o he i s ime o pass
a esolu ion in esponse o Venezuela’s
sham elec ions. P e iously, cen e-le and
cen e- igh ac o s had ailed o each ag ee-
men on he ex o a esolu ion. The EPP’s
inc eased willingness o o m majo i ies in-
ol ing a - igh g oups has been e iden
h oughou he cu en legisla i e pe iod,
pa icula ly in he a ea o Eu opean clima e
and en i onmen al policy. In No embe
2024, o example, he EU De o es a ion
Regula ion was signi ican ly wa e ed down
by he o es o he EPP, he P E, he ECR
and he ESN – o ins ance, he da e o
SWP Commen 39
Sep embe 2025
6
i s en y in o o ce was pushed back. And
in he summe o 2025, he EPP, he ECR
and he P E secu ed he es ablishmen o a
wo king g oup o in es iga e he EU inanc-
ing o NGOs.
In he pas , such coope a ion be ween
he cen e- igh and a - igh was much
a e . Du ing he p e ious (nin h) legisla i e
pe iod, he EPP had o med majo i ies wi h
wha we e hen he a - igh ID and ECR
g oup only o a limi ed ex en . Fo example,
he h ee g oups coope a ed o e a legis-
la i e p oposal on gene ically modi ied
plan s submi ed by he Commission in he
o dina y legisla i e p ocedu e, as well as
in wo o es on a i icial in elligence and
ishe ies policy ha led o esolu ions being
passed agains he o es o he S&D and he
G eens. In wo o he cases, majo i ies we e
achie ed wi h jus one o he wo a - igh
g oups: wi h he ID on de elopmen aid
policy and wi h he ECR on inancial ma -
ke issues. By con as , he e has been mo e
willingness o coope a e du ing he cu en
( en h) legisla i e pe iod.
Wi hin jus one yea , he EPP o med
majo i ies wi h he ECR, he P E and pa s
o he ESN o wo legisla i e p oposals
(besides he Venezuela esolu ion and he
de o es a ion egula ion) in he o dina y
legisla i e p ocedu e, on cohesion and
social policy, and o one esolu ion on he
Commi ee on Pe i ions.
This o m o majo i y building is based –
a leas in he case o he ECR g oup – on a
pa ial con e gence o iews. An analysis
o he o e all o ing beha iou du ing he
nin h legisla i e pe iod shows ha he EPP
eco ded he highes le el o ag eemen
wi h Renew (93 pe cen ), S&D (89 pe cen )
and he G eens/EFA (80 pe cen ). The ECR
ollows in ou h place wi h 68 pe cen . A
b eakdown by policy a ea e eals ha he
le el o ag eemen be ween he EPP and
he ECR in key a eas such as en i onmen al
and clima e policy, o eign and secu i y
policy, indus ial and economic policy, and
ag icul u al policy exceeded 65 pe cen in
each case. Ag eemen wi h he ID g oup –
whose key membe s and policies ha e since
been la gely abso bed in o he P E g oup –
was jus 40 pe cen , which was e en lowe
han ha wi h he Le .
A simila end in o e all o ing beha -
iou can be obse ed in he i s yea o he
en h legisla i e pe iod. The le el o ag ee-
men be ween he EPP and he ECR cu -
en ly s ands a 72 pe cen , while he P E
(43 pe cen ) and he ESN (23 pe cen )
occupy he las wo places. This indica es
ha selec i e s a egic alliances do no
necessa ily go hand in hand wi h a mo e
comp ehensi e con e gence in e ms o
o e all policy. A he same ime, his in e -
mi en willingness o o m ac ical majo -
i ies wi h a - igh ac o s is no wi hou
consequences, including o he p o-Eu o-
pean cen e on which he Commission
elies. In he wake o he no-con idence
o e agains U sula on de Leyen ini ia ed
by he ECR in July 2025, he EPP’s willing-
ness o seek majo i ies on he igh wing
came unde s ong c i icism om wi hin
he anks o he S&D and Renew, o he
poin o hose o ces h ea ening o e mi-
na e coope a ion.
Limi ed ole in he Eu opean
Commission
The pa icipa ion o poli icians om a -
igh pa ies emains leas p onounced in
he Eu opean Commission. Membe s o
he Commission a e nomina ed by na ional
go e nmen s and appoin ed by he Council
a e hea ings and a o e o app o al in he
EP (A icle 17 TEU). Legally, hey a e sup-
posed o pe o m hei du ies in comple e
independence. Howe e , because each
membe s a e nomina es only one membe
o he Commission, he la e gene ally
e lec he pa y-poli ical o ien a ion o he
la ges go e ning pa y a he ime o being
nomina ed.
As a esul o he composi ion o na ional
go e nmen s in July 2024, he di ec in ol e-
men o he a igh in he College o
he Eu opean Commission is limi ed o wo
commissione s. The i s is Ra aele Fi o,
a membe o B o he s o I aly (ECR) is cu -
en ly execu i e ice-p esiden o he Eu o-
pean Commission o Cohesion and Re-
SWP Commen 39
Sep embe 2025
7
o ms. His nomina ion by he Meloni go -
e nmen was s ongly c i icised by he
cen e-le o he EP. Howe e , he p e ailed
in he hea ings wi h he suppo o he EPP.
The second is Hunga y’s Oli é Vá helyi,
o mally una ilia ed bu poli ically close
o Fidesz (P E), who is esponsible o heal h
and animal wel a e. Following con o e sial
s a emen s made by Vá helyi du ing his
hea ing – o example, on accina ions
and issues ela ed o sexual and gende
di e si y – pa s o his po olio we e aken
away om him, including he a ea o ep o-
duc i e heal h. Bu since he new Commis-
sion en e ed in o o ice, he e has been
li le public con o e sy su ounding ei he
Fi o o Vá helyi.
Inc easing in eg a ion in o he EU
O e all, he in eg a ion o pa s o he a
igh in o he EU’s poli ical sys em is al eady
well ad anced and con inues o g ow. The
membe pa ies o he ECR, in pa icula ,
a e now ea ed as no mal poli ical ac o s
in many a eas: in he Eu opean Council,
in he Council o he EU, in he Eu opean
Commission and as pa o changing majo -
i ies in he EP. This no malisa ion can be
a ibu ed o he EPP pa ies, which inc eas-
ingly ind common g ound wi h he ECR
on indus ial and clima e policy issues. Fo
hei pa , he Social Democ a s, he G eens
and he Libe als ha e a e y di e en a i-
ude owa ds loosening he co don sani ai e
and a e much mo e c i ical o coope a ion
wi h ECR pa ies.
This a emp a ins i u ional di e en ia-
ion ega ding he co don sani ai e is likely
o be pa icula ly challenging because o
he blu ed di iding line be ween he ECR
and he mo e adical o ex eme o ces.
Se e al membe pa ies o he ECR o me ly
belonged o he pa o he ID, while pa s
o he P E we e o me ly membe s o he
ECR. And because he bounda ies a e so
luid, in eg a ion in o he EU ins i u ions
encompasses he b oade a - igh spec-
um: Vik o O bán in luences e e y deci-
sion in he Eu opean Council h ough his
e oes. Al hough go e nmen s wi h a -
igh pa ies ha e no o med a g oup in
he Council o he EU, hose o ces a e also
egula ly in ol ed in he decisions made by
his body. Mos impo an , howe e , is ha
al e na i e majo i ies wi hou cen e-le
pa ies a e possible in he EP only i he
ECR and he P E ag ee.
Th ee ac o s de e mine how signi ican
his in eg a ion is o EU policy. Fi s , as
is so o en he case in he EU, he di e en
decision-making p ocedu es play an impo -
an ole. I unanimi y applies in he Eu o-
pean Council o Council o he EU, all na-
ional go e nmen s mus ul ima ely ag ee.
While he poli ical eali y is ha he powe
o he espec i e na ional go e nmen s
a ies depending on hei poli ical and eco-
nomic weigh , he lowes common denomi-
na o will necessa ily include go e nmen s
led by a - igh pa ies when majo Eu o-
pean decisions a e being made. Bu i quali-
ied majo i y o ing applies and he EP is in-
ol ed, he co-decision igh s a e mo e di -
use. In his case, indi idual go e nmen s
led by a - igh pa ies can be ou o ed o
ha e o comp omise mo e, whe eas in he
EP i sel he in luence o a - igh g oups
depends on how he majo i ies a e o med.
The second ac o is he ex en o which
he a ious a - igh pa ies a e poli ically
uni ed a he Eu opean le el, bo h as ep e-
sen a i es o na ional go e nmen s and in
he EP. This is pa icula ly e iden in o -
eign and secu i y policy – no leas wi h
ega d o Russia, Uk aine and China. While
MEPs om he P E and he ESN o en oppose
he p o-Eu opean pa liamen a y majo i y in
his a ea, he ECR is clea ly willing o align
i sel wi h he cen e- igh (see SWP Com-
men 8/2024). The e a e also conside able
di e ences in economic policy be ween he
libe a ian and p o ec ionis app oaches,
bu hese do no necessa ily un along he
ECR-P E axis. The simila i ies a e g ea e on
issues ela ed o cul u e wa s and, abo e all,
on clima e and mig a ion policy.
The hi d ac o is he o e lap wi h he
poli ical posi ions and beha iou o he
EPP. Whe he a he na ional le el o in he
EP, i is usually he case ha a - igh
SWP Commen 39
Sep embe 2025
8
pa ies ob ain majo i ies and hus poli ical
powe only wi h he suppo o as junio
pa ne s o he cen e- igh . As a esul ,
hei in luence a he EU le el is s onges
when hey can o e he EPP he op ion o
o ming al e na i e majo i ies and he
la e is eady and willing o do so. In he
cu en legisla i e pe iod, his has no ye
happened o undamen al decisions on
Eu opean in eg a ion o o eign, secu i y
and de ence policy, bu i is inc easingly
happening in he a ea o economic, clima e
and mig a ion policy.
Thus, because o i s ela i e s eng h a
bo h he na ional and Eu opean le el, he
EPP will play a cen al ole in Eu opean
in eg a ion in he coming yea s. I s policy
and s a egic o ien a ion will be decisi e in
de e mining whe he he EU can con inue o
ely on a p o-Eu opean cen e. In he long
e m, he EPP will ha e o decide whe he
and o wha ex en i wan s o ca y on
playing i s ac ical game o u ilising shi ing
majo i ies ac oss he poli ical spec um.
The a - igh pa ies will o e subs an i e
p oposals in an a emp o pe suade i o
make a comple e policy change. Bu i he
EPP wan s o emain loyal o he p o-Eu o-
pean camp, i will ha e o abandon soone
o la e i s pu sui o an inc easingly con-
adic o y cou se o alue-based posi ion-
ing, on he one hand, and selec i e majo -
i y-building wi h a - igh ac o s, on he
o he . This is because he g owing ese -
a ions abou and ensions is-à- is he EPP
wi hin he cen e-le camp h ea en o up-
se he exis ing balance and ende he p o-
Eu opean majo i y e en mo e agile.
Max Becke is Resea ch Assis an , Johanna Flach is S uden Assis an and
Nicolai on Onda za is Head o SWP’s EU
/
Eu ope Resea ch Di ision
The au ho s would like o hank Paul Boch le o his suppo in he da a analysis.
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ISSN (P in ) 1861-1761
ISSN (Online) 2747-5107
DOI: 10.18449/2025C39
(English e sion o
SWP-Ak uell 42/2025)
