Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Glauben, Thomas; Gö z, Linde Johanna; S anidze,
Mi anda; P ehn, Sö en
A icle
The s abili y o he global whea ade in he pos -so ie
space: A ade du a ion app oach
Ge man Jou nal o Ag icul u al Economics (GJAE)
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Gesellscha ü Wi scha s- und Sozialwissenscha en des Landbaues e.V. (GEWISOLA)
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Glauben, Thomas; Gö z, Linde Johanna; S anidze,
Mi anda; P ehn, Sö en (2024) : The s abili y o he global whea ade in he pos -so ie space: A
ade du a ion app oach, Ge man Jou nal o Ag icul u al Economics (GJAE), ISSN 2191-4028, TIB
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Submi ed: 14 Aug. 2024 | Accep ed: 04 Dec. 2024 | Published: 14 Jan. 2025
The S abili y o he Global Whea T ade in he
Pos -So ie Space: A T ade Du a ion App oach
Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani , Thomas Glauben , Linde Gö z , Mi anda S anidze
and Sö en P ehn
Leibniz Ins i u e o Ag icul u al De elopmen in T ansi ion Economies (IAMO), Halle (Saale), Ge many
Co espondence: Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani, [email protected]
Abs ac : The collapse o he So ie Union and he I on Wall as well as he eme gence o
Kazakhs an, Russia, Uk aine and Romania as majo ac o s on in e na ional g ain ma ke s
since 2000 had inc eased he hope o a mo e s able in e na ional g ain ma ke . Howe e ,
a ious sho - un ade policy in e en ions o pos -So ie g ain expo ing coun ies du ing he
2000s and 2010s ha e caused empo a y dis up ions in global g ain supply chains. Mo eo e ,
he g owing numbe o p o ec ionis s a e in e en ions and sanc ions since he beginning o
he 2010s, as well as g owing geopoli ical ensions, may also agmen global ade and hus
h ea en he s abili y o g ain ade ela ions. Agains his backd op and gi en he cu en public
and poli ical deba es abou sui able “de- isking s a egies” o s abilise in e na ional ade, his
a icle aims o explo e he s abili y o he global whea ade in e ms o he du a ion depend-
ence o ade ela ions be ween he majo g ain expo e s and hei des ina ions om 2001 o
2021. We es whe he he e a e di e ences be ween he ela i ely “new” pos -So ie expo e s
ha ha e eme ged and he “old” ones. Fu he mo e, we examine he co ela ion be ween he
numbe o ade pa ne s and he ade du a ion. We employ a disc e e- ime haza d model o
annual ade da a o es ima e he baseline haza d and su i al a e o ele en majo whea
expo ing coun ies. The esul s indica e ha , by ha ing o e all du a ion dependence, no di -
e en pa e n in ade s abili y can be iden i ied be ween “new” and “old” ac o s, and ini ial
indica ions sugges ha ha ing mo e ading pa ne s a ou s he su i al o ade ela ions.
Keywo ds: Global Whea Supply Chain, T ade Du a ion, Baseline Haza d, Logi , Kaplan-
Meie Es ima o , Su i al Ra e, Pos -So ie
1 In oduc ion
Fo he as majo i y o coun ies, ood secu i y canno be gua an eed by domes ic p oduc ion
and he impo ing o di e en ood and ag icul u al p oduc s is essen ial (B en on e al., 2022).
Recen s udies show ha app oxima ely wo- hi ds o he wo ld’s popula ion is dependen on
impo ed oods (Kinnunen e al., 2020). The dependency on he g ain ade has his o ical oo s
and is no a new phenomenon. Fo ins ance, his o ical eco ds show ha , as he Roman pop-
ula ion inc eased, i became mo e dependen on whea impo s om o he Medi e anean
coun ies. Josephus eco ded in his Bellum Judaicum ha , in he la e 70s A.D., No h A ica
(excluding Egyp ) ed Rome o wo- hi ds o he yea , while Egyp , in addi ion o p o iding
inancial esou ces o Rome, sen su icien amoun s o g ain o eed he ci y o he es o he
yea (Rickman, 1980). The shape o his ade has changed in mode n imes due o he dis-
co e y o he New Wo ld, g ain cul i a ion in new egions and a d op in anspo cos s, which
caused whea p ices o all in he la e 19 h and ea ly 20 h cen u ies (O’Rou ke, 1997). Tsa is
1
Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
Russia was a majo p oduce and expo e o g ain be o e he Bolshe ik Re olu ion in 1917
(Goodwin, G ennes, 1998). As i s successo , howe e , he So ie Union could ne e become
he majo whea expo e ha Tsa is Russia was, and i ins ead became a whea impo e .
G ain impo s om he So ie Union we e a he a ec ed by geopoli ics and he poli ical econ-
omy, especially a e Wo ld Wa II (A kin, 1995). Howe e , he pos -Wo ld Wa II g ain ade
egime changed a e he collapse o he So ie Union due o s uc u al changes o he ag icul-
u al sys ems in he new s a es in he pos -So ie space. Wi h eme ging whea expo e s such
as Kazakhs an, Russia, Uk aine and Romania (collec i ely e e ed o as he ECA1 whea ex-
po e s in his s udy), he in e na ional whea ade ne wo k was expec ed o become mo e
s able and esilien (González-Es eban, 2018). Howe e , he 2007-08 ood c isis, ollowed by
inc eased ood p ice ola ili y, he COVID-19 pandemic and inc easing geopoli ical ensions
since a ound 2020, such as he US-China ade con lic and he Russian in asion o Uk aine,
ha e b ough in o ques ion he s abili y and esilience o he in e na ional ood ne wo k
(Glauben, Du ic, 2024), especially o g ains (Glauben e al., 2022; Yugay e al., 2024).
Ou analysis is mo i a ed by wo di e ging issues: on he one side expo ing and impo ing
coun ies a e exposed o he ulne abili ies o he in e na ional whea ade ne wo k (Gu ié ez-
Moya e al., 2021) and on he o he side in e na ional ade ela ions also o e a sa e y ne in
he p esence o clima e o policy- ela ed supply bo lenecks (Glauben, S anidze, 2023). To
in es iga e he s abili y o ade ela ions, we measu e he empo al ade du a ion o he ade
ela ions o he op ele en whea expo e s wi h hei impo pa ne s om 2001 o 2021 and
ocus on wo issues. Fi s ly, we look a whe he he newly eme ged ECA whea expo ing coun-
ies a e showing ema kably di e en ade du a ion pa e ns compa ed o he his o ically es-
ablished whea expo ing na ions, such as he USA, Canada, Aus alia, Ge many, F ance, he
UK and A gen ina. By selec ing hese op ele en majo whea expo e s, he dynamic de el-
opmen in he in e na ional whea ma ke can be ep esen ed. Secondly, we explo e whe he
he e a e di e ences in ade du a ion be ween expo e s wi h a la ge numbe o ading pa -
ne s (i.e. mo e di e si ica ion) and hose wi h a smalle numbe o ading pa ne s (i.e. less
di e si ica ion). The la e issue is pa icula ly due o in ensi e ecen deba es in he poli ical
and public sphe e abou sui able “de- isking s a egies” o secu e supplies and hus he s abili y
o ade ela ions (Glauben, Du ic, 2024). On he one hand, i is a gued ha g ea e di e si i-
ca ion, i.e. a la ge numbe o impo ing coun ies, educes he isk o supply gaps ia ade
dis up ions. A he same ime and in con as , i is a gued ha mo e s able in e na ional ade
ela ions can be be e achie ed wi h a smalle numbe o selec ed and pa icula ly eliable
(“ iendly”) ading pa ne s and e en sel -su iciency.
We apply a ade du a ion app oach (Besedeš, P usa, 2006a, 2006b; Hess, Pe sson, 2012)
by es ima ing baseline haza d and su i al a es o he whea ade. Du a ion app oaches
complemen he well-known g a i y models (e.g. Ande son, 2011; Ande son, Yo o , 2012), as
g a i y app oaches ocus on he ading olumes bu a e no sui able o measu ing he du a-
ion o ading ela ionships. Rela i ely long- e m ade su i al, i.e. high s abili y in he sense
o compa a i ely ew in e up ions, be ween expo e s and impo e s could be an addi ional
indica o o well-es ablished and obus whea ma ke s. T ade du a ion app oaches a e em-
ployed o examine and iden i y he s abili y o ade ela ionships (Có coles e al., 2015; Obashi,
2010; Wang e al., 2019). When i comes o he subs an ial cos s and isks o ( e-)en e ing in o
and ( e-)es ablishing new ade ela ionships, main aining exis ing ade ela ionships migh be
c ucial o he p o i abili y o expo and impo pa ne s. Addi ionally, a he longe - e m ade
ela ionships be ween pa ne s could be a sign o highe e ical coo dina ion and lowe ans-
ac ion cos s (Ke oki i, Mahoney, 2020). S able ade ela ions migh allow ag icul u al and ood
p oduce s in expo ing coun ies o gene a e mo e e enues a lowe isk and migh ensu e he
a ailabili y o ood p oduc s in impo ing coun ies (Engemann e al., 2022), pa icula ly in he
con ex o ecu ing ma ke in e en ions and inc easing geopoli ical ensions. Wi h a speci ic
ocus on he g ain sec o , we can obse e he p ecise ma ke condi ions ha lead (o can lead)
1 Eu ope and Cen al Asia (ECA) is a ca ego iza ion by he Wo ld Bank ha e e s o a lis o coun ies in Sou heas
and Eas e n Eu ope, he Caucasus and Cen al Asia: h ps://www.wo ldbank.o g/en/ egion/eca
2
Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
o uns able ade ela ions. Ma ke condi ions can be na u al luc ua ions o supply o demand
o e he yea s and a ce ain imes. Fundamen al ma ke ac o s (such as wea he e en s)
a he han ce ain ade policies can be he cause o p ice o ma ion and, as a esul , can lead
o changes in supply o demand. In ce ain yea s, when na u al condi ions a e ela i ely good,
impo ing coun ies can ha e high le els o sel -su iciency and may suspend impo s, a leas
empo a ily, as hey a e no longe dependen on hem. Some coun ies ha e whea sel -su i-
ciency policies ha may be in place o some yea s when he e is highe ain all (see Jaghdani
e al. (2024a) o an example o he ola ile whea ade ela ionship be ween Russia and I an).
F om he pe spec i e o he expo ing coun y, his can be conside ed an uns able ade ela-
ionship. F om he pe spec i e o he impo ing coun y, i is no necessa ily he case. Howe e ,
s able o long- e m ading ela ionships a e no a “gold s anda d” indica ion o he unc ionali y
o ma ke s. Fo example, equen changes be ween ading pa ne s, i.e. a he uns able e-
la ions, could be a sign o a high le el o adap abili y and lexibili y and could hus add o he
unc ionali y o ma ke s.
This a icle explo es se e al speci ica ions o he ade du a ion model by dis inguishing be-
ween he single-spell and he mul iple-spells da a s uc u es in a disc e e- ime haza d ame-
wo k ha is es ima ed in a logis ic eg ession. Fu he mo e, as a obus ness es , we compa e
he es ima ed su i al a e o he disc e e- ime haza d model wi h he adi ional Kaplan–Meie
es ima o , which assumes con inuous- ime s uc u es (Kaplan, Meie , 1958). This a icle is o -
ganised as ollows: Sec ion 2 p esen s backg ound in o ma ion on de elopmen s in he in e -
na ional whea ma ke , and Sec ion 3 p o ides a li e a u e e iew on ood ade du a ion. In
Sec ion 4, he me hodology and da a a e p esen ed, while he esul s a e p esen ed in Sec ion
S be o e conclusions a e d awn in Sec ion 6.
2 Eme ging ECA Whea Expo e s in he In e na ional Whea Ma ke
2.1 S uc u al Changes
Kazakhs an, Russia and Uk aine (KRU) we e he h ee main whea and coa se g ain p oducing
epublics in he So ie Union. Howe e , on agg ega e, he So ie Union was a g ain impo e
a he han an expo e (Fellmann e al., 2014). Upon he collapse o he So ie Union, he e
was a huge d op in he size o ag icul u al p oduc ion in he new-bo n epublics and mos o
hem u ned in o impo e s o many ag i- ood p oduc s. La e on, a se ies o economic e o ms
we e s a ed in hei ag icul u al sec o s, wi h hese e o ms ha ing se ious consequences,
especially in KRU. Du ing his ansi ional pe iod, he ins i u ions ha had been le om he
collec i isa ion o ag icul u e in he So ie Union we e ans o med. So ie ag icul u e was
based on s a e-owned a ms (So khozy) and collec i e a ms (Kolkhozy), which we e demol-
ished in he ansi ional pe iod, and smallholde a me s wi h small o medium sized a ms,
la ge p i a e a ms o ag icul u al co po a es eme ged du ing his ime. These ag icul u al co -
po a es, o en called ag o-holdings, as well as la ge p i a e a ms, we e able o inc ease
p oduc i i y and e iciency, a ac inancial esou ces o in es men s, and in eg a e in o in e -
na ional ma ke s and global ood supply chains. Downsizing he li es ock sec o was ano he
change in his pe iod. Th ough hese s uc u al changes obse ed since 1992, KRU became
h ee majo expo e s o g ains, oilseeds and eeds u o in e na ional ma ke s (Ga a o a e
al., 2015; Lie e , Lie e , 2015). Romania is ano he coun y which was a membe o he o me
Socialis Bloc ha has joined he op whea expo e s in ecen yea s. I u ned i s in o a whea
impo e om 1990 o 1992, bu , ollowing a e o m policy (FAO, 1993), Romania has since
obse ed a o al ac o p oduc i i y inc ease in i s ag icul u al sec o (Tebaldi, Gobjila, 2018).
Figu e 1 shows ha Russia has ansi ioned om a coun y impo ing mo e han 13.5 million
onnes o whea in 1992 o an expo ing coun y wi h expo s amoun ing o mo e han 40 million
onnes o whea in 2018. Simila ly, Uk aine, Kazakhs an and Romania also became majo
expo e s.
3
Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
Figu e 1. Ne whea expo s om Russia, Uk aine, Kazakhs an and Romania (1991 o 2021)
Da a sou ce: UN Com ade and T ade Map
The impo ance o ag icul u al expo s is no simila bu o no iceable economic impo ance o
all ou coun ies. Fo he 2017-2020 pe iod, expo s o ag i- ood p oduc s accoun ed o 42%
o Uk aine’s, 10% o Romania’s, 6% o Russia’s and 6% o Kazakhs an’s o al expo s in alue
e ms app oxima ely. Speci ically, o he same pe iod, expo s o whea accoun ed o 7% o
Uk aine’s, 2% o Romania’s, 2% o Russia’s and 2% o Kazakhs an’s o al expo s in alue
e ms app oxima ely2. The ag icul u al expo s o hese coun ies mainly consis o g ains,
oilseeds and oilseed oil. Figu e 2 shows ha Russia and Uk aine a e among he op i e and
Kazakhs an and Romania a e in he op ele en whea expo e s in he wo ld. Since 2000,
Russia was able o sligh ly pass he USA and become he la ges whea expo e in he wo ld.
In 2019, Russia, Uk aine, Romania and Kazakhs an accoun ed o 18%, 11%, 3.5% and 3%
o wo ld whea expo s, espec i ely.
2 Da a sou ces a e UN Com ade o whea expo s and WTO S a is ics o ag i- ood and o al expo s
(h ps://s a s.w o.o g/).
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Ne expo (million onnes pe yea )
Yea
Russia Uk aine Kazakhs an Romania
4
Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
Figu e 2. The sha e o whea expo s among he op 11 expo e s o global whea expo s,
2001-2020 (HS Code: 1001)
Sou ce o Da a: UN Com ade and T ade Map
By conside ing he a e age expo s o whea du ing he 2017-2020 pe iod, Egyp , Indonesia,
Bangladesh, he Philippines, Mo occo, Tunisia, and Tu key we e he main impo e s o Rus-
sian whea while Egyp , Tu key, Bangladesh, Sudan, Nige ia, Yemen and Vie nam we e he
main impo e s o Uk ainian whea . In he same pe iod, poli ically uns able coun ies such as
Lebanon, Libya and E hiopia we e on he lis o whea impo e s om bo h Russia and Uk aine.
The p ocessing and expo o Russian whea as lou has been obse ed among di e en
coun ies in he Middle Eas and in pa icula Tu key (Heige mose e al., 2022). Fo Kazakh-
s an, as i is a landlocked coun y, i s main whea expo des ina ions a e i s neighbou s, and,
o he pe iod o 2017-2020, Uzbekis an, Tajikis an, A ghanis an and China we e he main im-
po e s o Kazakhs an’s whea (Ga a o a e al., 2015). Egyp , Jo dan, Sou h Ko ea, Sudan and
Is ael a e majo impo e s o Romanian whea 3. Cu en ly Kazakhs an, Russia, Uk aine and
Romania a e he bigges ne whea expo e s o he o me Socialis Bloc and ha e he e o e
been selec ed as new ac o s o his a icle. These coun ies aced many challenges in p o-
ducing high-quali y whea in he pos -So ie space (Ca son, Edwa ds, 2009). Al hough he
quali y o whea can be de e mined by a ange o ac o s, p o ein con en is one o he main
indica o s. Du um whea wi h a p o ein con en o app oxima ely mo e han 13% is sui able o
pas a. Ha d whea wi h a p o ein con en o app oxima ely mo e han 13.5% is sui able o high-
p o ein lou b ead. Wi h a p o ein con en o 11.5% o 13.5%, i is used o lou b ead. So
whea wi h a p o ein con en o 8.5% o 9.5% is sui able o cakes, biscui s, puddings and
pas y. Addi ionally, so whea wi h a p o ein con en o 9.5% o 11.5% is a hickene and
sui able o g oce ies. Mixed whea ypes wi h a p o ein con en o 9.5% o 11.5% a e used in
whi e Japanese and yellow Chinese noodles. Finally, mixed whea ypes wi h a p o ein con en
3 Da a sou ce o whea expo des ina ion: UN Com ade (h ps://com adeplus.un.o g/) and T ade map
(h ps://www. ademap.o g).
5
Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
o 10.5% o 12.5% a e used o baking la b ead, which is common in he Middle Eas and
No h A ica (MENA) egion (W igley, 2009). The e is no much in o ma ion a ailable on he
ype o whea expo ed by ECA whea expo ing coun ies. The li le da a a ailable shows ha
he bulk o whea expo ed om Russia, Uk aine and Romania has a p o ein con en o be-
ween 11% and 12%, which makes i ideal o la b ead p oduc ion in he MENA egion (AEGIC,
2016a, 2016b; Ma inciu e al., 2022). In addi ion o i s lowe p ice, his is a majo eason why
hese coun ies expo o he MENA egion. In con as , Kazakhs an p oduces highe -quali y
whea , which is sui able o whea lou (Al aibae a e al., 2016). In 2021, Kazakhs an’s du um
whea expo s amoun ed o 3.8%. Howe e , unlike Russia, Uk aine and Romania, Kazakhs an
is a landlocked coun y wi h limi ed access o he in e na ional ma ke (S anidze e al., 2019).
The e o e, whea expo s ha e emained ela i ely s able since 2001 due o anspo cos s.
Howe e , by expanding i s lou -milling indus y and p oducing highe -quali y whea o b ead,
Kazakhs an has inc eased i s whea lou expo s o neighbou ing coun ies (Al aibae a e al.,
2016). UN Com ade whea lou expo da a shows ha , since 2005, Kazakhs an and Tu key
ha e been he leading whea lou expo e s. Kazakhs an’s maximum whea lou expo was
2.39 million onnes in 2016. Simila o whea , he lou is also mainly expo ed o A ghanis an,
Uzbekis an and Tajikis an. Howe e , because he ocus o ou a icle is on whea , we a oid
u he analysis o whea lou expo s, as i is a di e en commodi y.
2.2 T ade Policies
Since he eme ging ECA expo e s joined he global whea expo ma ke , hey ha e ollowed
e y uns able ade policies. Russia has epea edly implemen ed expo - ela ed es ic ion pol-
icies (ERPs) o whea (S anidze e al., 2022), consis ing o an expo ban in 2010-11, and an
expo ax in 2007-08 as well as in 2015 (Figu e 3). Since 2020 expo quo as ha e been
imposed empo a ily, and since 2021 a lexible expo ax sys em has been in place (Gö z,
S anidze, 2023).
Figu e 3. Russia’s his o ical mon hly whea expo de elopmen conside ing he ade policy
ola ili ies and domes ic and in e na ional p ices in Russian uble (RUB) (2006-2022)
Sou ce: Gö z, S anidze (2023)
2020 expo
quo a + ban
2015
expo ax
2007/08
expo ax
2010/11
expo ban
ee ade
since 2021
quo a +
loa ing ax
6
Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
Uk aine has also implemen ed g ain ERPs o e he las wo decades. Fo ins ance, om July
2007 o Oc obe 2007, Uk aine in oduced a es ic i e o al g ain expo quo a o 12,000
onnes (3,000 onnes each o whea , ba ley, ye and co n), which essen ially ac ed as an
expo ban. On ano he occasion, om Oc obe 2010 o July 2011, Uk aine implemen ed a
g ain expo quo a o 6.2 million onnes o o al g ain expo s. Fu he , om July 2011 o De-
cembe 2011, expo axes we e in oduced. These we e se a 9% o whea , 12% o maize
and 14% o ba ley (Fellmann e al., 2014). Addi ionally, Gö z e al. (2013) ound ha umou s
o expo es ic ions caused whea p ice ola ili y in Uk aine’s domes ic ma ke om 2005 o
2012. Kazakhs an also implemen ed g ain ERPs, including an expo ban om Ap il 2008 o
Sep embe 2008 (Fellmann e al., 2014). Fu he examples o g ain ERPs can be ound o
Uk aine, Kazakhs an and a ew o Romania4. Among he old ac o s, A gen ina has had he
highes numbe o ERPs since 2001 (AMIS, 2024). Aus alia also had a ew egis e ed expo
axes and licensing equi emen s in place om 2003 o 2014. No u he ERPs on whea we e
ound o whea expo s om he USA, Canada, he UK and he EU (AMIS, 2024).
3 Li e a u e Re iew
The concep s o haza d o su i al we e mainly de eloped wi hin he na u al sciences, such
as in biology and medicine (e.g. Cox, 1972; Kaplan, Meie , 1958), o , o ins ance, in labou
economics and po e y esea ch (e.g. Glauben e al., 2012). The “dea h” o loss o an objec
(o ailu e o an e en ) o a s udy was he main cha ac e is ic o ime- o-e en da a in he na u al
sciences, o example, which “ echnically” (i.e. in e ms o he model speci ica ions) co e-
sponds wi h an in e up ion in ade ela ions in ade du a ion models (Hess, Pe sson, 2012).
Almos all ade du a ion s udies lack a igo ous heo e ical amewo k in he sense o con-
sis en and clea beha iou al assump ions (Engemann e al., 2022; Hess, Pe sson, 2011). The
seminal wo ks by Besedeš, P usa (2006b, 2006a) build on educed- o m models by analysing
ade du a ion o many commodi ies and coun ies. T ade du a ion models became heo e i-
cally ounded wi h he in oduc ion o he he e ogeneous i m ade model by Meli z (2003).
Consequen ly, ex ensi e and in ensi e ma gins o ade we e s udied by conside ing a i m’s
he e ogenei y (Besedeš, P usa, 2011). On he o he hand, ade du a ion models also unde -
wen signi ican me hodological ad ancemen s o e he las decade. In pa icula , he disc e e-
ime haza d model was in oduced by Hess, Pe sson (2012), whe eas, p io o ha , he su i al
o ade ela ions was explo ed using he non-pa ame ic Kaplan-Meie es ima o (Kaplan,
Meie , 1958) and COX p opo ional haza ds model (Cox, 1972).
Mos ecen s udies on he in e na ional ag i- ood ade du a ion speci ically ocus on pe isha-
ble ood i ems and he e ec s o ade policies and ade ba ie s. Fo ins ance, Pe e son e al.
(2018) ind ha sani a y and phy osani a y measu es dec ease ade du a ion, pa icula ly in
he i s yea s o policy implemen a ion o highly pe ishable ui and ege able p oduc s in he
US. Likewise, Luo, Bano (2020) in es iga e New Zealand’s dai y expo s and ace back he
dec easing likelihood o con inuous ade ela ionships o echnical ba ie s o ade imple-
men ed by impo ing coun ies. A pa icula and no el s and o he ade du a ion li e a u e
ocuses on he analysis o he sea ood ade, o which pe ishabili y is an e en mo e c i ical
issue (e.g., Jaghdani e al., 2024b).
Wi h he imp o emen s in he a ailabili y o i m-le el ade ansac ion da a, he numbe o
ade du a ion s udies conduc ed a he i m le el also inc eased, bu hey a e s ill a e. Fo
ins ance, Gulls and, Pe sson (2015) ind he ade du a ion o ood i ems o Swedish i ms o
be highe in co e ma ke s ( he i ms’ p ima y expo des ina ions) han in pe iphe al ma ke s
( he i ms’ mino expo ma ke s). In ano he s udy, Jaghdani e al. (2024) apply a he e ogene-
ous i m ade model (Meli z, 2003) o i m- o- i m ade ansac ion da a on he salmon ade,
inding ha he salmon ade du a ion is ela i ely sho -li ed (a ound 2.5 yea s on a e age).
4 The eco ds o di e en expo es ic ions can be ollowed ia he Global T ade Ale (GTA) pla o m:
h ps://www.global adeale .o g/.
7
Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
Al hough he EU is a majo impo ing ma ke o No wegian salmon, hey ound ha he s abili y
o ade be ween di e en pa ne s is no huge o majo and mino impo ing ma ke s o di -
e en con inen s.
To he bes o ou knowledge, Imam e diye e al. (2015) and Jaghdani e al. (2020) a e he
only s udies ha analyse he du a ion o whea expo s. Imam e diye e al. (2015) exclusi ely
ocused on Kazakhs an. They concluded ha he ade du a ion o Kazakhs an’s whea expo s
can be explained by high ade cos s, he use o local p oduc ion ac o s, and a lack o p ice
compe i i eness and expe ience. By ocusing on F ance, Jaghdani e al. (2020) obse ed mo e
s able ade ela ions be ween F ance as he expo e and o he EU impo ing coun ies com-
pa ed o non-EU impo ing coun ies. In con as o he a ailable li e a u e, his a icle is he
i s compa a i e s udy o ocus on he analysis o ade du a ion o he la ges ele en whea
expo ing coun ies. Mo eo e , his s udy also makes a me hodological con ibu ion o ood
ade du a ion s udies by es ima ing he su i al unc ion o each whea expo e h ough a
disc e e- ime haza d model (Hess, Pe sson, 2012).
4 Me hodology and Da a
In his Sec ion, we i s p esen he disc e e- ime haza d model building on Hess, Pe sson
(2012), Pe e son e al. (2018) and Engemann e al. (2022). Howe e , he empi ical app oach
in his s udy is limi ed o es ima ing he baseline haza d model (Tu z, Schmid, 2016) and he
co esponding su i al unc ion. Second, as a obus ness es , we compa e he esul s o he
no el disc e e- ime es ima o o he s anda d classical non-pa ame ic Kaplan-Meie su i al
es ima o , which is p esen ed in he subsequen Sec ion. Las , we discuss he es ima ion s a -
egy and da a s uc u e.
4.1 Baseline Haza d Model
We s a by de ining a spell o ade. A spell o ade (i, i=1,…,n) is de ined as he ealisa ion
o he ade ela ionship o a pe iod wi h unin e up ed ade o a p oduc be ween an expo e
coun y X and an impo e coun y M (Besedeš e al., 2023). The du a ion o each spell (Ti) is
hen de ined as he numbe o consecu i e yea s wi h non-ze o ade be ween pa ne s. Le Ti
be a non-nega i e, con inuous andom a iable ha measu es he su i al ime o he i h ade
ela ionship wi hou in e up ion (o i h spell). Nex , we de ine a se o disc e e- ime in e als
[ 1, 2,.., k, … max] when k=1 means k = 1 = 0 and 1 ≤ k < max. The p obabili y ha he i h
ade ela ionship (o i h spell) ends in k h ime in e al is condi ional on he unin e up ed ade
ela ionship (o spell) su i ing up o he beginning o ha ime in e al and on a se o explan-
a o y a iables in he model. When ade ailu e happens in a pa icula disc e e ime in e al
[ k, k+1), hen he du a ion o each spell o Ti = k+1 (Tu z, Schmid, 2016, chap e 3). This means
ha he du a ion o he ade spell is he leng h o ime he indi idual ade ela ion exis ed,
usually eco ded as he las pe iod in which he ade is obse ed (Singe , Wille , 1993). As
sugges ed by Hess, Pe sson (2012), in he disc e e- ime haza d model, ade du a ion is es i-
ma ed as a condi ional p obabili y ha he ade o a p oduc will e mina e in a pa icula dis-
c e e ime in e al [ k, k+1) de ined abo e (1 ≤ k < max). This condi ional p obabili y o ade
in e up ion, which is also de ined as a disc e e- ime haza d a e (ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖), can be o mula ed as
ollows:
ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 =ℎ(𝑡𝑡|𝒙𝒙)=𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖<𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖+1|𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖≥𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖,𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖)
(1)
=𝐹𝐹�𝛾𝛾𝑖𝑖+ 𝒙𝒙𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
´𝜷𝜷�
whe e x'ik is a ec o o ime- a ying co a ia es, P() is condi ional p obabili y and β is a ec o
o coe icien pa ame e s ha should be es ima ed. Fu he mo e, 𝛾𝛾𝑖𝑖 is he baseline haza d as
8
Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
Figu e 5. Su i al a es o ade spells be ween each expo e and all hei pa ne s
(mul iple-spells da a s uc u e)
Sou ce: s udy indings
Figu e 6. The su i al a e o ade spells be ween each expo e and all i s pa ne s
(single-spell da a s uc u e)
Sou ce: s udy indings
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Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
Based on spells wi h a du a ion o up o 18 yea s, he su i al a es amoun o 13%, 11% and
10% o Romania, Uk aine and Ge many, meaning hey a e “medium su i al a e” expo e s.
As Romania is a a he new ac o in he wo ld ma ke , he da ase is limi ed o 18 yea s. How-
e e , i s su i al a e o up o 18 yea s is simila o ha o Uk aine and Ge many. Uk aine and
Romania ha e simila (and e en sligh ly highe ) su i al a es compa ed o an es ablished
ac o such as Ge many. The UK, wi h a 7% su i al a e, and Kazakhs an, wi h an 8% su i al
a e, ha e simila pa e ns conside ing he 18 yea s o he longes ade spell in he mul iple-
spells se ing. UK whea expo s a e declining and mainly consis o odde whea (F adgley e
al., 2023), which compe es wi h o he eeds u . Kazakhs an has limi ed expo possibili ies due
o i s geog aphical landlocked condi ions and hus limi ed access o he wo ld ma ke (S anidze
e al., 2019). I Kazakhs an es ic ed i s whea expo s o only a ew neighbou ing coun ies, i
could ha e a highe su i al a e, as highe olumes could be aded wi h ewe pa ne s and
each pa ne would become mo e impo an . Ne e heless, as Kazakhs an expo s o coun ies
ha a e u he away, mo e uns able, sho -li ed ade spells appea ed ha educed i s su i al
a e. Wi h 2.5%, he lowes su i al a e a e 18 yea s o ade is ound o A gen ina. This
a he low a e could esul om uns able expo ade policies, uns able exchange a e poli-
cies, pe iodically high domes ic in la ion o egula implemen a ion o ERPs.
Table 3. Su i al a es o he wo da a s uc u e (mul iple-spells and single-spell) es ima ion
amewo ks o compa ison a he spell leng h o 11 and 18 yea s using he disc e e- ime
haza d model
Su i al a e e ie ed om logi
es ima ion o spells o leng h 11
Su i al a e e ie ed om logi
es ima ion o spells o leng h 18
Coun ies
Mul iple-
spells da a
Single-
spell da a
Di *
Mul iple-
spells da a
Single-
spell da a
Di *
Old ac o s
USA
0.231
0.140
0.091
0.198
0.084
0.114
Canada
0.254
0.135
0.119
0.227
0.106
0.121
F ance
0.206
0.099
0.107
0.16
0.058
0.102
Aus alia
0.252
0.152
0.100
0.222
0.127
0.095
A gen ina
0.064
0.014
0.050
0.025
0.004
0.021
Ge many
0.118
0.040
0.078
0.103
0.024
0.079
UK
0.090
0.024
0.066
0.07
0.009
0.061
New ac o s
Russia 0.228 0.105 0.123 0.19 0.076 0.114
Uk aine
0.130
0.036
0.094
0.11
0.024
0.086
Romania
0.134
0.038
0.096
0.134
0.031
0.103
Kazakhs an
0.097
0.028
0.069
0.08
0.014
0.066
*Di measu es he di e ence be ween su i al a es o he mul iple-spells and single-spell da a s uc u es
Sou ce: s udy indings
The esul s o he es ima ed su i al a es h ough he disc e e- ime haza d model can be cau-
iously summa ised as ollows: Ini ially, we canno see di e en ypes o clus e s among he
“new” and “old” ac o s. Subsequen ly, i seems ha he la ges expo e s (namely he USA,
Russia, Canada and F ance), bo h in e ms o he amoun o whea aded and he numbe o
ading pa ne s, ha e he highes su i al a es. Fu he mo e, high whea quali y could en-
cou age long-las ing bila e al ade ela ions (e.g., Aus alia and Canada). Mo eo e , limi ed
ma ke access, such as in Kazakhs an as a landlocked coun y, seems o wo k agains long-
las ing ade. In he con ex o he logi es ima o , su i al a es wi h a single-spell s uc u e a e
subs an ially unde es ima ed. This issue is u he es ed and discussed in Sec ion 5.3.
To isualize he ela ionship be ween su i al a es and he numbe o ading pa ne s, we
ha e plo ed he numbe o impo ing ading pa ne s o each expo e (as an indica o o di-
e si ied pa ne s) e sus he a e age leng h o spells o each expo e (see Sec ion 5.1) and
he su i al a e o he 18-yea spell (see Figu e 5 and Table 3). The esul s o his depic ion,
which should be iewed e y conse a i ely due o he low numbe o obse a ions, show ha
16
Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
he e is a pa e n be ween he a e age leng h o spells o each expo e and he numbe o
pa ne s (see Figu e 7, panel A), wi h a co ela ion coe icien o 63% a 5% signi icance. We
can also ecognise a ising co ela ion (wi h a co ela ion coe icien o 56% a 10% signi i-
cance) be ween su i al a es and he numbe o pa ne s (see Figu e 7, panel B). The esul
shows ha , on a e age, expo e s wi h mo e ading pa ne s also ha e mo e s able ade
ela ions. This may esul in long- e m bila e al ela ions wi h many indi idual ading pa ne s,
as expo e s can swi ch be ween indi idual pa ne s and he e o e quickly ind a “new” buye
in he o e all wo ld ma ke . Hence, s abili y in he o e all pool o des ina ion ma ke s can be
achie ed ei he by (a) lexible adap a ion o (b) con inui y o indi idual ela ionships.
Figu e 7. The ela ionship be ween he numbe o ading pa ne s, he a e age leng h o he
spells and he su i al a e o he 18-yea spells
Sou ce: s udy indings
5.3 Robus ness Tes o he Su i al Ra es wi h he Kaplan-Meie Es ima-
ion and S udy Limi a ions
Figu e 8 and Figu e 9 show he es ima ed su i al a es using a non-pa ame ic Kaplan-Meie
es ima o o he mul iple-spells and single-spell s uc u es, espec i ely. In he mul iple-spells
s uc u e, su i al a es as well as hei pa e ns a e nea ly iden ical ac oss he Kaplan-Meie
es ima ion me hod and he disc e e- ime haza d model wi h he logis ic eg ession app oach
(compa e Figu e 5 and Figu e 8). In con as , he su i al a es o he Kaplan-Meie es ima o
a e highe in e e y ins ance wi h he single-spell s uc u e (compa e Figu e 6 and Figu e 9).
Addi ionally, he pa e n o su i al a es in Figu e 9 is di e en compa ed o all o he es ima o s
(Figu e 5, Figu e 6 and Figu e 8). Fo ease o in e p e a ion, Table 4 compa es he su i al
a es de i ed om he Kaplan-Meie es ima o o spells o 11 and 18 yea s be ween he mul-
iple-spells and single-spell da a s uc u es. Fo ins ance, in he mul iple-spells s uc u e, Rus-
sia has a su i al a e o 22.8% a he spell leng h o 11 yea s, which dec eases o 19% a he
spell leng h o 18 yea s, whe eas he compa able changes a e 62.1% and 52.2% in he single-
spell s uc u e, espec i ely.
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Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
Figu e 8. Kaplan-Meie su i al es ima o in he mul iple-spells da a s uc u e
Sou ce: s udy indings
Figu e 9. Kaplan-Meie su i al es ima o in he single-spell da a s uc u e
Sou ce: s udy indings
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Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
Table 4. Su i al a es o he wo da a s uc u e (mul iple-spells and single-spell) es ima ion
amewo ks o compa ison a he spell leng h o 11 and 18 yea s using he
Kaplan-Meie (KM) es ima o
Su i al a e e ie ed om KM
es ima ion o spells o leng h 11
Su i al a e e ie ed om KM
es ima ion o spells o leng h 18
Coun ies
Mul iple-
spells da a
Single-
spell da a
Di *
Mul iple-
spells da a
Single-
spell da a
Di *
Old ac o s
USA
0.231
0.514
-0.283
0.198
0.403
-0.205
Canada
0.253
0.556
-0.303
0.227
0.535
-0.308
F ance
0.206
0.443
-0.237
0.16
0.372
-0.212
Aus alia
0.252
0.51
-0.258
0.222
0.477
-0.255
A gen ina
0.0637
0.266
-0.2023
0.0255
0.171
-0.1455
Ge many
0.118
0.392
-0.274
0.103
0.302
-0.199
UK
0.0903
0.24
-0.1497
0.0703
0.18
-0.1097
New ac o s
Russia
0.228
0.621
-0.393
0.19
0.522
-0.332
Uk aine
0.13
0.483
-0.353
0.11
0.395
-0.285
Romania
0.13
0.474
-0.344
0.13
0.4
-0.27
Kazakhs an
0.0973
0.348
-0.2507
0.0803
0.285
-0.2047
*Di is mul iple-spells da a su i al a e minus single-spell da a su i al a e
Sou ce: s udy indings
In a nu shell, he ollowing can be s a ed: i s ly, wi h a mul iple-spells s uc u e, he su i al
a es o he Kaplan-Meie es ima o a e almos o he same o de o magni ude as o he logi
es ima o . Secondly, he su i al p obabili ies a e ela i ely o e es ima ed o he Kaplan-Meie
es ima o conside ing he single-spell in compa ison o he o he es ima o s. Thi dly, he p e i-
ously men ioned pa e ns be ween he a ious expo ing coun ies also apply o he Kaplan-
Meie es ima o wi h mul iple-spells.
The indings o his a icle mus be conside ed in ligh o some limi a ions. As men ioned in he
in oduc ion, s able o long- e m ading ela ionships canno necessa ily be conside ed a “gold
s anda d”. F equen changes be ween ading pa ne s, i.e., uns able ela ions, could be a sign
o a high le el o adap abili y and lexibili y. Fu he mo e, as he ocus o his a icle is on he
es ima ion o baseline haza d and su i al a es, i.e. he s abili y (du a ion) o ade ela ions
(be ween na ions) ega dless o he ex en o ade ela ions, conside ing he ex en o ade
ela ions would go beyond he aim o his s udy and add ess ano he (addi ional) ques ion. In
his ega d, he quan i ies o ade pe des ina ion a e no conside ed as a d i e . The e o e,
he esul s o a coun y wi h e y s able ade ela ions wi h i s main ading pa ne s may be
s ongly in luenced by some luc ua ions in ade egimes wi h some e y mino ading pa -
ne s which a e jus abo e he 50- onne h eshold applied. Al hough his is an issue o all ex-
po e s in ou da ase and all o hem can be a ec ed by ha a di e en magni udes, i can be
analysed in he ull haza d model and he quan i y o ade could be one o he di e en co a i-
a es ha a e common in ade du a ion s udies. The le el o domes ic whea p oduc ion o he
impo e could be ano he co a ia e. These a e opics o u u e esea ch.
6 Conclusion
This a icle compa ed ade du a ion di e ences be ween ele en majo whea expo e s o he
2001-2021 pe iod by using agg ega ed six-digi HS code whea ade da a. We add essed he
esea ch ques ion o whe he he e a e di e en su i al a e clus e s be ween newly eme ging
ECA whea expo ing coun ies (KRU and Romania) and “old” ac o s ( he USA, Canada, Aus-
alia, Ge many, F ance, A gen ina, and he UK) and i he e is a co ela ion be ween ade
s abili y and ade pa ne di e si ica ion. T ade du a ion da a was used o es ima e he base-
line haza d a io o he whea ade be ween each majo expo e and all hei impo e s. The
19
Jaghdani e al. | Ge J Ag Econ 73 (2024), No. 3
es ima ed baseline haza d h ough logis ic eg ession was employed o es ima e he disc e e
ime- o-e en su i al unc ion o each expo e . Fu he mo e, he classical non-pa ame ic
Kaplan-Meie es ima o was also employed o es he obus ness o he es ima ed su i al
a es.
The esul s show ha , p ima ily, we can obse e a kind o du a ion dependence in con inuing
ade ela ions ha di e s be ween coun ies, and longe ade ela ions in he pas can in-
c ease he p obabili y o ade pe pe ua ion. Secondly, he e is no clea dis inc ion be ween
“new” and “old” ac o s in e ms o he s abili y o ade ela ions. The ade su i al pa e n is
di e se be ween he wo g oups, sugges ing ha ac o s such as he ypes o whea aded,
he size o he ade, he geog aphical posi ion o he expo e s, and uns able mac oeconomic
condi ions migh play a la ge ole han he leng h o he p esence o an expo ing coun y on
he wo ld ma ke . Ou es ima ion esul s indica e ha he disc e e- ime haza d model wi hin
he logi es ima ion app oach p o ides compa able bu ema kably lowe su i al a es in he
single-spell da a s uc u e compa ed o he mul iple-spells da a s uc u e. Mo eo e , in he
mul iple-spells da a s uc u e, he disc e e- ime haza d model and he con inuous- ime Kaplan-
Meie es ima o gene a e he same nume ical ou pu s. Howe e , we obse e ha he su i al
a es a e signi ican ly in la ed wi hin he Kaplan-Meie es ima o in he single-spell da a s uc-
u e compa ed o he mul iple-spells da a s uc u e o e en o he disc e e- ime haza d model
in he single-spell da a s uc u e. The o e es ima ion o he su i al a es o he single-spell
da a by he Kaplan-Meie es ima o and unde es ima ion by he logi model a e due o he
igno ing o dis up ions in he Kaplan-Meie es ima o and he coun ing o dis up ions in he
logi model. This is no he case o he mul iple-spells s uc u e. The e o e, we can conclude
ha a mul iple-spells da a s uc u e is a mo e obus choice ac oss di e en es ima o s and
should be p e e ed in u he eg ession analyses wi h disc e e- ime haza d models o he
COX p opo ional haza ds model o he whea ma ke (o any o he commodi ies ma ke s), as
i can p o ide mo e eliable baseline haza ds. Mo eo e , we obse e a posi i e co ela ion
be ween expo e s’ ade s abili y and he di e si ica ion o ade pa ne s, which is wo hy o
u he esea ch in he u u e wi h u he obse a ions and/o wi h i m-le el da a. Wi h u u e
esea ch and a mo e ma u e, s eng hened da abase, di e en co a ia es ha a e common in
g a i y ypes o s udies could be added o each eg ession o ind in luen ial ac o s on haza d
a ios. Addi ionally, compa a i e a iables could be added o es he ole o he in ensi e ma -
gin in he whea ade. Fu he mo e, whea p oduc ion in impo ing and expo ing coun ies will
be a po en ial a iable ha can be conside ed.
Acknowledgmen
We g a e ully acknowledge inancial suppo om he Resea ch Council o No way h ough he
p ojec SEAVID19 Ensu ing economic sus ainabili y in he sea ood indus y du ing c isis, g an
No. 326647. We a e also hank ul o he Deu sche Fo schungsgemeinscha (DFG, Ge man
Resea ch Founda ion) o hei inancial suppo h ough he p ojec BlackSeaG ain: Russia’s
g owing whea expo business: Wha d i es expo g ow h, ade s abili y and p icing s a e-
gies?, p ojec No. 514853816. This esea ch was conduc ed du ing he p esence o he i e
au ho s a he Leibniz Ins i u e o Ag icul u al De elopmen in T ansi ion Economies (IAMO) in
Ge many. Open Access publica ion o his manusc ip is enabled by GJAE.
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Con ac Au ho
Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani, PhD
Depa men o Ag icul u al Ma ke s
Leibniz Ins i u e o Ag icul u al De elopmen in T ansi ion Economies (IAMO)
Theodo -Liese -S . 2, 06120 Halle, Ge many
e-mail: [email p o ec ed]
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