The Effect of Swiss Free Trade Agreements on Agricultural Trade

Fianko , Dela‐DemDoe; Ri zel, Ch is ian; I ek, Judi h; Mack, Gab iele
A icle — Published Ve sion
The E ec o Swiss F ee T ade Ag eemen s on Ag icul u al
T ade
Kyklos
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Fianko , Dela‐DemDoe; Ri zel, Ch is ian; I ek, Judi h; Mack, Gab iele (2025) :
The E ec o Swiss F ee T ade Ag eemen s on Ag icul u al T ade, Kyklos, ISSN 1467-6435, Wiley,
Hoboken, NJ, Vol. 78, Iss. 4, pp. 1333-1357,
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Kyklos
ORIGINAL ARTICLE OPEN ACCESS
The E ec o Swiss F ee T ade Ag eemen s on
Ag icul u al T ade
Dela-DemDoeFianko 1,2 | Ch is ianRi zel2 | Judi hI ek2 | Gab ieleMack2
1Depa men o Ag icul u al Economics and Ru al De elopmen , Uni e si y o Goe ingen, Gö ingen, Ge many | 2Economic Modelling and Policy
Analysis G oup, Ag oscope, E enhausen,Swi ze land
Co espondence: Dela- Dem Doe Fianko (dela-dem. ianko @uni-goe ingen.de)
Recei ed: 2 May 2025 | Re ised: 2 May 2025 | Accep ed: 16 May 2025
Keywo ds: ag icul u al ade| ee ade ag eemen s| g a i y models| Swi ze land
ABSTRACT
As a coun y highly dependen on impo s, Swi ze land has many ee ade ag eemen s (FTAs) ha libe alise ade ba ie s. We
assess how hese ag eemen s a ec Swiss ag icul u al impo s a di e en ma gins o ade adjus men . We es ima e educed-
o m g a i y models using ag icul u al ade da a o 202 pa ne coun ies om 2004 o 2022. We ind ha Swiss FTAs inc ease
ag icul u al impo alues by 8.75%, dec ease impo p ices by 3%, inc ease he p obabili y o impo s by 2% and educe ma ke
exi a es by 1%. These e ec s a e he e ogeneous ac oss p oduc s, sec o s and ag eemen s. Rega ding impo alues and quan-
i ies, he posi i e e ec s o FTAs a e mainly obse ed o aw p oduc s (including ege ables, ui s and nu s, co ee, ea and
spices). Howe e , he es ima ed e ec s a e nega i e o p ocessed p oduc s. Rega ding impo p ices, he e ec s a e posi i e
whene e hey a e s a is ically signi ican . We also ind ha he numbe o compe ing ag eemen s o which a Swiss ade pa ne
is exposed only ma ginally a ec s Swiss impo s. We ex end ou analysis o ag icul u al expo s and ind ha FTAs inc ease
Swiss expo alues by 47%, quan i ies by 53% and p ices by 3% bu do no a ec expo p obabili ies o expo ma ke exi a es.
Thus, al hough Swiss FTAs gene ally boos ade on a e age, policymaking should conside he he e ogenei ies o he es ima ed
FTA e ec s ega ding p oduc s, ag eemen s and ime when using FTA es ima es o coun e ac ual analysis and nego ia ions.
JEL Classi ica ion: F14, Q17, Q18
1 | In oduc ion
Economis s disag ee on many hings, bu he supe io i y o ee
ade o e p o ec ion is no con o e sial (Rod ik2018). A ee
ade ag eemen (FTA) allows coun ies o educe ba ie s o
impo s and expo s on a bila e al basis, allowing consume s
o bene i om g ea e p oduc a ie y a lowe p ices. This is
pa icula ly ele an o ag icul u e whe e ade ba ie s a e a-
di ionally highe ela i e o o he sec o s. Fo example, in 2015,
global a e age a i s we e 5% o nonag icul u al p oduc s and
11% o ag icul u e (Niu e al.2018), highligh ing he subs an ial
po en ial gains om libe alizing ade in ag icul u e. Exis ing
s udies on FTAs, howe e , ocus mainly on big coun ies, such
as he Eu opean Union and he Uni ed S a es, and assess hei
economy- wide e ec s, lea ing a knowledge gap on how FTAs
a ec he ag icul u al sec o in smalle coun ies.1 We add ess
his gap using he case o Swi ze land—a small, open economy
in which impo s accoun o app oxima ely 50% o domes ic
consump ion (Ri zel e al.2024).
As o 2024, Swiss ade policy es s upon h ee main pilla s:
(i) Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion (WTO) membe ship, (ii) associa-
ion ag eemen s wi h he Eu opean Union (EU) and membe -
ship o he Eu opean F ee T ade Associa ion (EFTA) and (iii)
bila e al ag eemen s wi h o he coun ies. WTO membe ship
means ha all Swiss impo s a e subjec o Mos - Fa o ed-
Na ion (MFN) a i s. I MFN a i s a e posi i e bu impo s
o igina e om a coun y ha has an FTA wi h Swi ze land
This is an open access a icle unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License, which pe mi s use, dis ibu ion and ep oduc ion in any medium,
p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed.
© 2025 The Au ho (s). Kyklos published by John Wiley & Sons L d.
1334 Kyklos, 2025
(unde ei he o he o he wo pilla s), he goods bene i om
lowe o e en ze o a i s.2 Gi en he ade cos educ ions ha
come wi h ade libe alisa ion, we expec FTAs o inc ease bi-
la e al ade. The same is ue o FTAs ha libe alise non-
a i measu es (NTMs) and adminis a i e p ocedu es. Wha
emains an empi ical ques ion is he magni ude o he ade
e ec and whe he he e ec s a y by p oduc , ag eemen o
o e ime. Fu he mo e, he ac ha Swi ze land has an FTA
wi h i s pa ne s does no p eclude he pa ne s om signing
FTAs wi h o he coun ies. These hi d- coun y ag eemen s
could o e a compa able o e en highe le el o libe alisa ion
o Swi ze land's ade pa ne s and di e po en ial expo s
des ined o Swi ze land o al e na i e des ina ions. Assessing
whe he and o wha ex en hese compe ing hi d- coun y
ag eemen s a ec Swiss impo s is necessa y o p o ide a ho-
lis ic pic u e o he ade e ec s o Swiss FTAs. Based on his
p emise, he economic ques ion unde lying ou wo k is how
impo an FTAs a e o Swiss ag icul u al ade.
Ou use o Swi ze land's ag icul u al sec o as a case s udy is
based on he s a k con as be ween he le els o p o ec ion in
he ag icul u al and nonag icul u al sec o s. Swi ze land's a i
pa e n e eals high a es o MFN a i s on ag icul u al impo s
compa ed wi h low a es on indus ial goods. These high a i s
se e a poli ically mo i a ed p o ec i e ole o he ag icul u al
sec o , limi ing oppo uni ies o subs an ial concessions in e-
cip ocal ade nego ia ions o domes ically sensi i e ag icul-
u al p oduc s. Con e sely, he indus ial sec o aces minimal
a i s, which con inue o dec ease. Fo ins ance, in Janua y
2024, Swi ze land implemen ed a signi ican ade e o m by
au onomously elimina ing all a i s on indus ial impo s, i -
espec i e o o igin (Zimme mann 2023). Mo e b oadly, he
highe p o ec ion le els in he ag icul u al sec o is- à- is he
nonag icul u al sec o sugges a la ge ade inc ease in ag icul-
u e ollowing an FTA. This expec a ion is consis en wi h G an
and Lambe (2008), who ind ha ade ag eemen s inc ease
ag icul u al ade by an a e age o 72%, compa ed wi h a 27%
inc ease in nonag icul u al ade. In Swi ze land, whe e he dis-
pa i y in p o ec ion be ween sec o s is e en mo e p onounced
and he e exis s li le lexibili y in ag icul u al concessions, he
impac o FTAs on Swiss ade emains an empi ical ques ion.
Ou empi ical assessmen uses da a on ag icul u al impo s and
FTAs in o ce be ween 2004 and 2022. We de ine wo ma gins
o impo adjus men s: he in ensi e ma gin (measu ed by im-
po alues, impo quan i ies and impo p ices) and he ex en-
si e ma gin (measu ed by he p obabili y o impo s and ma ke
exi ). We hen es ima e a educed- o m g a i y model ha e-
g esses wo FTA indica o s— he p esence o an FTA (dummy
a iable) and he numbe o hi d- coun y FTAs—on hese ma -
gins. Ou empi ical indings show ha , on a e age, Swiss FTAs
inc ease impo alues by 8.75%, dec ease impo p ices by 3%,
inc ease he p obabili y o impo s by wo pe cen age poin s
and educe ma ke exi a es by one pe cen age poin . On he
e ec o hi d- coun y FTAs, we obse e e y ma ginal e ec s.
Fo ins ance, an addi ional hi d- coun y FTA dec eases Swiss
impo quan i ies by abou 0.3%, dec eases impo p ices by 0.1%
and changes impo p obabili y and ma ke exi a es by 0.1 pe -
cen age poin s. Thus, al hough hese e ec s a e s a is ically sig-
ni ican , he magni udes a e oo small o ha e sizeable nega i e
impac s on Swiss impo s.
To p o ide deepe insigh s in o ou main indings, we assess
he he e ogenei y o he a e age FTA e ec s ac oss a ious di-
mensions. Swiss FTAs, aiming o achie e a ge ed libe alisa ion
ha aligns wi h Swiss ag icul u al policy objec i es, dis in-
guish be ween basic ( aw) and p ocessed ag icul u al p oduc s.
Assessing he he e ogenei y o he ade e ec ac oss his p od-
uc classi ica ion, we ind ha FTAs inc ease he impo alues
and quan i ies o aw p oduc s bu dec ease hem o p ocessed
p oduc s. Simila he e ogenei y is obse ed ac oss di e en
HS2- digi p oduc sec o s. Some FTAs inc ease impo s, o he s
dec ease impo s and o he s ha e no e ec on impo s. This pa -
e n o he e ogenei y is consis en ac oss o he impo ma gins.
To cap u e he dynamic e ec s o FTAs, we inco po a e lags and
leads o he FTA a iable. We ind no e idence o an icipa ion
e ec s bu ind ha he ade e ec s phase in up o 2 yea s a e
implemen a ion.
Fo comple eness, we ex end ou analyses o Swiss expo s, e en
hough ag icul u al expo s make only a small sha e o o al
Swiss ade. We ind ha Swiss FTAs inc ease Swiss expo al-
ues by 47%, quan i ies by 53% and p ices by 3%; howe e , hey
do no a ec he ex ensi e ma gins o expo . The magni udes
o he expo - side e ec ha we es ima e a e la ge han he
impo side e ec s. Gi en he ela i ely lowe le els o exis ing
Swiss ag icul u al expo s is- à- is impo s, he la ge expo -
side e ec o an FTA is no su p ising. Tha Swiss FTAs inc ease
expo p ices is consis en wi h he ac ha Swiss expo s a e
o a highe a e age quali y and command a p ice p emium.
Howe e , i is also consis en wi h he idea ha he cos sa ings
om lowe a i s may no be ully passed h ough o domes-
ic consume s bu a e ins ead pa ially app op ia ed by o eign
supplie s.
Ou wo k makes wo key con ibu ions o he li e a u e.
Exis ing s udies on he e ec s o Swiss FTAs on ade pa e ns
p ima ily ocus on he agg ega e economy.3 Fo ins ance,
Be gs and and Baie  (2010) show ha he Swiss–Mexico
FTA o 2001 inc eased bila e al ade by app oxima ely 37%
a e jus 4 yea s in place. Nussbaume 's (2017) analysis o
20 Swiss FTAs using da a on expo s and impo s om 1993
o 2014 p o ides desc ip i e e idence ha poin s owa ds a
gene al posi i e ade e ec o FTAs, bu he empi ical es i-
ma es a e inconclusi e. Acco ding o Imho  (2021), Swiss
FTAs ha e no e ec on impo quali y and a ie y bu de-
c eases quali y- adjus ed p ices. We con ibu e o his s eam
o indings by assessing he impac o FTAs speci ically on
ag icul u e, gi en he high le els o p o ec ion ha ypically
cha ac e ise his sec o . In his ega d, ou wo k is simila o
Kohle (2016), who examines he e ec o comple e libe alisa-
ion in cheese be ween Swi ze land and he EU on he Swiss
cheese ade. Al hough he esul s in Kohle (2016) a e pos-
i i e, hey pain a uzzy pic u e and do no ule ou he pos-
sibili y ha he FTA e ec is null. The e is also he wo k by
Copenhagen Economics(2016), whose p ima y ocus on EU
FTAs o e s an assessmen o he e ec s o Swiss- EU FTAs
in he ag icul u al sec o . While ele an , his wo k is limi ed
o Swiss FTAs wi h he EU. Ou wo k hus di e s om hose
o Kohle (2016) and Copenhagen Economics(2016) on wo
on s: We ocus on all ag icul u al p oduc s and conside all
Swiss FTAs. Fu he mo e, Swiss FTAs o en dis inguish be-
ween basic ag icul u al p oduc s and p ocessed ag icul u al
1335
p oduc s, a dis inc ion ha has no been inco po a ed in o any
ex pos assessmen s. Ou wo k ills his gap.
Ou second con ibu ion ex ends beyond he di ec ade e -
ec s o Swiss FTAs on Swiss impo s o conside he b oade
ne wo k o ade ela ionships in ol ing Swi ze land's pa -
ne s. Many o Swi ze land's ade pa ne s main ain bila e al
ag eemen s wi h hi d coun ies ou side Swi ze land. Fo ex-
ample, while Swi ze land has an FTA wi h he EU, he EU
also holds FTAs wi h coun ies such as he Medi e anean
basin, Canada, Mexico, Singapo e and Chile. Whe he hese
hi d- coun y ag eemen s enhance o di e ade away om
Swi ze land is an empi ical ques ion ha emains unde ex-
plo ed in he exis ing li e a u e. The inc easing o e lap o
ade ag eemen s p esen s bo h challenges and oppo uni ies.
O e lapping ag eemen s can aise ade cos s due o he com-
plexi y o managing mul iple ade ules and egula o y s an-
da ds. Con e sely, coun ies connec ed h ough se e al FTAs
may expe ience s onge in eg a ion and egula o y ha mon-
isa ion, po en ially educing ade cos s. In his con ex , ou
s udy con ibu es o a g owing body o li e a u e examining
he in e ac ion be ween o e lapping FTAs and hei e ec s on
ag icul u al ade (e.g., Ja a i e al.2023).
Ou analysis and indings hold impo an implica ions o pol-
icymaking, pa icula ly in he ag icul u al sec o . His o ically,
ag icul u e has been ea ed as a special sec o , o en exemp
om ce ain p o isions in ade ag eemen s. Howe e , e-
cen ends sugges a shi owa ds in eg a ing ag icul u e
in o b oade ade amewo ks. A epo by he O ganisa ion
o Economic Co- ope a ion and De elopmen (Thompson-
Lipponen and G een ille2019) indica es ha he numbe o
ade ag eemen s excluding ag icul u e has s agna ed. Only
a ew ag eemen s now exclude ag icul u e en i ely, wi h an
inc easing endency o add ess ag icul u al ade wi hin he
gene al p o isions o ag eemen s a he han in dedica ed
chap e s. Gi en hese de elopmen s, ou s udy is imely in as-
sessing he e ec i eness o hese p o isions o ag icul u e.
Fu he mo e, ou a emp o p o ide e idence o he case o a
highly ade- dependen economy, such as Swi ze land, is im-
po an , as he e may be c ucial policy implica ions o u u e
ag eemen s. Mo eo e , ou ex pos analyses o e a basis o
compa ison wi h ex an e simula ions conduc ed by go e n-
men agencies, such as he Swiss Fede al O ice o Ag icul u e
(FOAG). This compa ison can help he FOAG e alua e
whe he he an icipa ed bene i s o FTAs ha e been ealised
and iden i y unin ended consequences o a eas o policy im-
p o emen . As ag icul u e con inues o con e ge wi h gene al
ade policy, such e idence is c i ical o e ining s a egies o
suppo he sec o e ec i ely.
The s uc u e o he pape is as ollows. Sec ion2 p o ides he
concep ual and heo e ical backg ound ha ames ou anal-
yses and aids in in e p e ing he empi ical indings. Sec ion3
discusses he empi ical amewo k employed in he s udy. In
Sec ion 4, we p esen he da a and highligh he key s ylised
ac s ele an o ou analysis. We p esen and discuss he empi -
ical indings in Sec ion5. In Sec ion6, we ex end ou analysis
o Swiss impo s o Swiss expo s. Finally, Sec ion7 concludes
he pape and o e s policy implica ions based on ou indings.
2 | Concep ual and Theo e ical Conside a ions
In his sec ion, we p esen he concep ual basis o ou analy-
ses. This p o ides s uc u e o ou wo k, guides ou a p io i
expec a ions and helps us o discuss ou empi ical indings. We
hen p esen a concise heo e ical o e iew o he g a i y model,
which se es as he basis o ou empi ical analyses.
2.1 | Concep ual Backg ound: The Economics
o T ade Ag eemen s
S anda d mic oeconomic heo y p edic s ha ade ag eemen s
gene a e e ms- o - ade gains o membe coun ies. To illus-
a e his, we p o ide a simpli ied amewo k o analysing hese
e ec s in a small open economy wi hin a pa ial equilib ium
se ing (see also Plumme e al.2011). Sec ionA.1 in he appen-
dix o e s a comp ehensi e discussion o he mic oeconomic
ounda ions and mechanisms unde lying ade ag eemen s, in-
cluding hei heo e ical unde pinnings and he key ac o s ha
d i e hei e ec s. The small coun y assump ion is app op ia e
in his con ex , as Swi ze land's in e na ional ma ke in luence
is ela i ely modes , accoun ing o jus 1.67% o global me chan-
dise impo s and 2.96% o global impo s o comme cial se ices,
which oge he ep esen 1.9% o o al global me chandise and
comme cial se ices impo s (Zimme mann 2023). Figu eA1
depic s he domes ic ma ke o a speci ic good in a coun y p e-
pa ing o join an FTA. In he end, wo main p edic ions eme ge
om his amewo k and se he basis o he es o ou wo k:
We expec he p esence o an FTA o (i) inc ease impo quan i-
ies and (ii) lowe impo p ices. In he nex subsec ion, we ex-
plain how we in end o es his expec a ion empi ically.
In his pape , we ocus on he di ec ade c ea ion e ec s o FTAs.
We limi he heo e ical exposi ion o a i educ ions, as hese
emain a cen al ea u e o FTAs. Howe e , i is impo an o no e
ha ecen FTAs ha e become deepe and mo e comp ehensi e,
encompassing no only a i cu s bu also he libe alisa ion o
NTMs and adminis a i e p ocedu es. These b oade p o isions,
al hough c ucial, a e ou side he scope o ou analysis. Ano he
obse a ion beyond he scope o he cu en pape is he e ec o
ade di e sion, which occu s when impo s p e iously sou ced
om he mo e e icien ou side a e displaced by impo s om he
less e icien bu now cheape FTA pa ne coun y. The heo e i-
cal p edic ion ha FTAs inc ease ade ca ies impo an wel a e
implica ions o di e en economic agen s in he home coun y.
As a esul o lowe impo p ices, p oduce wel a e declines be-
cause domes ic p oduce s ecei e lowe p ices o hei goods.
Howe e , he educ ion in domes ic p ices bene i s consume s,
inc easing hei su pluses and a ailable p oduc a ie ies and
making hem be e o . The go e nmen also loses some a i
e enue, and he ne wel a e e ec depends on e iciency gains
in o he sec o s o he economy. Al hough hese nondi ec e ec s
a e ele an , hey a e no he ocus o his s udy. Addi ionally,
as we ocus on FTAs, which a e ecip ocal by de ini ion, we ex-
clude unila e al ade p e e ences g an ed unde he Gene alised
Sys em o P e e ences. On ecip ocal e sus unila e al ade lib-
e alisa ion in he Swiss con ex , Zimme mann (2023) o e s a
b oad discussion, while Ri zel and Kohle (2017) p o ide an anal-
ysis speci ic o he ag icul u al sec o .
1336 Kyklos, 2025
2.2 | Theo e ical F amewo k
Ou s a ing poin is he s uc u al g a i y equa ion. G a i y equa-
ions a e expendi u e unc ions ha indica e how consume s al-
loca e hei spending ac oss coun ies when aced wi h ade cos
cons ain s. I emains he wo kho se model o ex pos analysis
o bo h he pa ial and gene al equilib ium e ec s o ade ag ee-
men s (La ch and Yo o 2024). In i s basic o m, he model p edic s
ha bigge coun ies ade mo e wi h each o he and ha ade de-
c eases wi h bila e al dis ance. Fo a model ha was disconnec ed
om economic heo y un il he 21s cen u y, se e al heo e ical
models now yield p edic ions ha a e close o g a i y. Fo ou case,
we adop he p oduc - speci ic e sion o he A ming on- CES spec-
i ica ion, as in Ande son and Van Wincoop(2003), as ollows4:
whe e
Xodp
deno es expo s o p oduc p om o igin (i.e., expo e )
coun y o o des ina ion (i.e., impo e ) coun y d in yea .
Edp
is he impo demand o p in d, which is usually p oxied by g oss
domes ic p oduc (GDP).
Yop
is he le el o domes ic p oduc ion in
o
o
p
.
Yp
is agg ega e wo ld p oduc ion o p. The igh - hand side
o Equa ion(1) is a p oduc o wo a ios. The i s a io is he p e-
dic ed ade low unde ee ade, and he second a io in b acke s
cap u es exogenous bila e al ade cos s. The ade cos e m con-
sis s o h ee componen s: (i) he nume a o ,
𝜏odp
, is he bila e al
ade cos be ween
o
and
d
o p oduc
p
; (ii) he denomina o con-
ains wo s uc u al e ms,
Πop
and
𝜆dp
, ha measu e he ease o
ma ke access o
o
and
d
; (iii)
𝜎p
is he elas ici y o subs i u ion
pa ame e .
Ou in e es lies in
𝜏odp
, as i allows us o show how FTAs modi y
p edic ed cos less ade. We model
𝜏odp
as he ollowing log- linea
unc ion o obse ed ade ic ions, including FTAs, NTMs, bi-
la e al a i s and a ec o
Ωod
o ime- in a ian adi ional g a i y
co a ia es (including bila e al dis ance, and dummies o sha ing
a common language, and sha ing a common bo de ):
3 | Empi ical Applica ion
In his sec ion, we speci y ou econome ic models and desc ibe
how we es ima e he a e age and he e ogeneous e ec s o FTAs
on Swiss ag icul u al impo s.
3.1 | Econome ic Speci ica ion
To assess he a e age e ec o Swiss FTAs and he numbe o
compe ing FTAs ha Swiss ade pa ne s ha e wi h o he hi d-
coun ies on di e en ma gins o Swiss ag icul u al impo s, we
es ima e he ollowing gene ic educed- o m g a i y equa ion:
whe e o is he o igin coun y (i.e., he coun y o p oduc ion),
p
is he HS6- digi p oduc , and
is ime measu ed in yea s.
Xop
is
he ou come a iable, which a ies depending on he impo ma -
gin unde conside a ion.
FTAo
is a dummy a iable ha akes he
alue 1 i he e exis s a FTA be ween Swi ze land and
o
in yea
, and 0 o he wise.
𝛽1
cap u es he e ec o he p esence o an FTA
be ween coun y
o
and Swi ze land in yea
on ag icul u al im-
po s, holding cons an o he ac o s ha migh in luence ade.
Using an FTA dummy, we cap u e he a e age e ec o FTAs on
ag icul u al impo s, abs ac ing om he complexi ies o spe-
ci ic ag icul u al concessions o p oduc - le el commi men s. This
allows us o es ima e ade e ec s wi hou equi ing de ailed
p oduc - speci ic da a. The FTA dummy implici ly e lec s he e-
duc ion in ade cos s, cap u ing he combined e ec o all ade-
acili a ing measu es unde an FTA, including, whe e ele an ,
a i p e e ences, quo a a angemen s and educ ions in non a -
i ba ie s.5
𝛽2
cap u es he e ec o hi d- coun y FTAs ha do
no in ol e Swi ze land. This accoun s o such FTAs as hose be-
ween he EU and Sou h Ko ea, he EU and Tü kiye, among o h-
e s.
Thi dCoun yFTAd≠CHE
o
is he numbe o o he FTAs owned
by coun y o excluding Swi ze land.
GDPo
is he ime- a ying
g oss domes ic p oduc o he o igin coun y.
NTMop
cap u es
he numbe o o igin- and p oduc - speci ic NTMs imposed on im-
po s.
Ta i op
is he applied ad alo em (bila e al) a i s cha ged
on impo s o p oduc
p
om coun y
o
in yea
.
𝜆p
and
Πop
a e
p oduc – ime and o igin–p oduc ixed e ec s ha con ol o he
mul ila e al esis ance e ms ha a e ypical o s uc u al g a i y
models. Ano he impo an dis o iona y ade policy ool e-
quen ly used in Swi ze land is he a i a e quo a (TRQ) sys em
(Hillen2019). TRQs allow a p e- de e mined quan i y o a p oduc o
be impo ed a lowe a i s (in- quo a du y) while imposing highe
a i s on impo s exceeding his quo a (ou - o - quo a du y). They
a e o en applied du ing speci ic pe iods wi hin he yea , pa ic-
ula ly du ing domes ic supply seasons, o p o ec local p oduce s.
Due o he annual na u e o ou da ase , howe e , we a e unable
o accoun o he in a- yea a ia ion in TRQs. Ne e heless, he
inclusion o p oduc –yea ixed e ec s in ou es ima ions accoun s
o hei impac , as TRQs a e applied on a p oduc - speci ic basis.
𝜖op
is he e o e m.
Ou es ima ion equa ion is a log- linea ised o m o
Equa ion (1) ha embeds Equa ion (2). Howe e , he e a e
a ew issues ha a e wo h highligh ing, gi en ha a i s
glance, Equa ion(3) does no look exac ly like he heo e i-
cal speci ica ion in Equa ion(1). In ou se up, Swi ze land is
he only impo ing coun y, so he des ina ion index
d
is e-
dundan and is d opped om he empi ical speci ica ion o
simplici y. Fo his same eason, he inclusion o o igin p od-
uc ixed e ec s
Πop
abso bs all he ime- in a ian adi ional
g a i y a iables con ained in he ec o
Ωod
in Equa ion(2).
Because
d
is edundan , he dimensions o he coun y- pai
a iables included in ec o
Ωod
educe o
Ωo
, which is u he
embedded in
Πop
. None heless, bila e al ixed e ec s—in ou
case
Πop
—a e be e measu es o bila e al ade cos s han
he s anda d se o ime- in a ian adi ional g a i y a i-
ables (Egge and Nigai2015; Agnos e a e al.2019; Fianko
e al.2021). The mul ila e al esis ance e ms
Πop
and
𝜆dp
in
Equa ion(1) educe o
Πop
and
𝜆p
in he empi ical speci ica-
ion.
𝜆dp
simpli ies o
𝜆p
because
d
is edundan , bu we eso
o
Πop
in he empi ical es ima ion because allowing he o igin
(1)
X
odp =
Y
op
E
dp
Y
p
(𝜏odp
Π
op
𝜆
dp
)
1−𝜎p
(2)
𝜏
odp =FTA𝛽1
od Thi d Coun y FTAd≠CHE,𝛽2
od NTM3
odp Ta i 𝛽4
odp exp
7
∑
n=5
𝛽nΩ
od
(3)
Xop =𝛽0+𝛽1FTAo +𝛽2Thi d Coun y FTA
d≠CHE
o +𝛽3logGDP
o
+𝛽
4
NTM
op
+𝛽
5
log
(
1+Ta i
op )
+𝜆
p
+Π
op
+𝜖
op

1337
coun y ixed e ec s o a y o e ime (as in
Πop
) would e-
sul in pe ec collinea i y wi h ou a iables o in e es ,
FTAo
and
Thi dCoun yFTAd
≠
CHE
o
.
3.2 | De ining Di e en Measu es o
Xop
In his s udy, we a e in e es ed in how FTAs a ec di e en ma -
gins o impo adjus men s. This is impo an , as di e en ma gins
o ade may adjus di e en ly when aced wi h ade cos s. We
de ine i e di e en ma gins o impo s. The i s h ee ma gins
come di ec ly om ou heo e ical amewo k in Figu e A1, in
which we illus a e how a i s a e p edic ed o a ec impo quan-
i ies and p ices. We e e o hese ma gins as he in ensi e ma gin
o impo adjus men and de ine hem as ollows:
1. The alue o impo s in CHF o p oduc
p
om coun y
o
in
yea
, ha is,
Impo alueop
.
2. The quan i y o impo s in kilog ams o p oduc
p
om
coun y
o
in yea
, ha is,
Impo quan i yop
.
The en y in o o ce o an FTA educes ade cos s o pa ne s
in ol ed in he ading ela ionship. The expo e s in he o eign
coun y mus no longe bea he cos s o a i s and o he NTMs
ha we e libe alised as pa o he FTA. In e u n, his may educe
he p ices o impo s, as p oduce s and o he ac o s along he alue
chain no longe need o bea he ex a cos s o p oduc ion and
ade. To es his p edic ion, we de ine an impo p ice ma gin:
3. The p ice—measu ed as uni alues in CHF/kg—o impo s
o p oduc
p
om coun y
o
in yea
, ha is,
Impo p iceop
.
The h ee ou come a iables we conside ocus on absolu e ade
alues o quan i ies. Thus, ou es ima es p o ide insigh in o he
size o he change in he alue o quan i y o Swiss impo s in
esponse o an FTA. Howe e , i is possible ha he expansion
o ade may mani es no only as inc eased alues o quan i ies
o exis ing p oduc s o impo e s bu also in o he ways. Fo in-
s ance, new expo e s may en e he Swiss impo ma ke . The
educ ion in ade cos s as pa o he FTA should also educe
he numbe o expo e s ha exi he Swiss ma ke . These ade
measu es a e o en e e ed o as ex ensi e ma gins. We de ine
hese ma gins as ollows:
4. The p obabili y o impo s o p oduc
p
om coun y
o
in
yea
, ha is,
P (Vop
>
0)
.
5. The p obabili y ha impo s o p oduc
p
om coun y
o
cease in yea
, ha is,
P (
Exi
op
>0
)
.
3.3 | Es ima ion P ocedu e
Depending on he ou come a iable, we es ima e Equa ion(3)
using di e en es ima o s. On he e ec o FTAs on impo al-
ues and impo quan i ies, we use he Poisson pseudo- maximum
likelihood (PPML) es ima o . The PPML es ima o 's log- linea
objec i e unc ion allows us o speci y he es ima ion equa ion
in i s mul iplica i e o m wi hou log- ans o ming he depen-
den a iable and is consis en unde he e oscedas ici y (Sil a
and Ten ey o2006). Because impo p ices a e ne e ze o, we
es ima e he e ec o FTAs on impo p ices using o dina y leas
squa es (OLS). Rega ding he e ec o FTAs on he p obabili y
o ade and ma ke exi , we es ima e a linea p obabili y model
(LPM). We employ he LPM o p ac ical easons, as i allows o
a s aigh o wa d in e p e a ion o he coe icien s as ma ginal
e ec s and acili a es he inclusion o high- dimensional ixed
e ec s wi hou encoun e ing he inciden al pa ame e p oblem
ypical o many o he nonlinea models. Tha no wi hs anding,
we also es ima e bo h p obi and logi models o ensu e ha he
model choice does no d i e ou indings.
3.4 | Iden i ica ion S a egy
Endogenei y has been a majo obs acle in g a i y models. The
sou ces o he p oblem a e e y clea , o en a ising om e e se
causali y and/o omi ed ac o s ha simul aneously a ec ade
and he p obabili y o signing an ag eemen .6 Due o i s in ui i e
appeal and easy implemen a ion, he leading me hod o han-
dle endogenei y o FTAs is ha o Baie and Be gs and(2007),
who, consis en wi h he app oach o con ol unobse ed ime-
in a ian he e ogenei y wi h panel da a by Woold idge(2010),
p opose he use o bila e al ixed e ec s, hus con olling o mos
o he unobse ed co ela ion be ween he endogenous FTAs
and he e o e m in g a i y models (La ch and Yo o 2024).
In ou one- coun y case, he o igin- p oduc ixed e ec s,
Πop
,
cap u e all bila e al a ia ions. As such, h ea s o iden i ica ion
due o endogenei y a e add essed using s anda d app oaches in
he li e a u e. Ne e heless, we in e p e ou indings as associ-
a ions a he han causal es ima es. This is because in ou sin-
gle impo ing coun y se ing, we canno en i ely ule ou he
addi ional e ec o o he o igin– ime speci ic e ec s, including
clima e change and ex eme wea he e en s. Ou a iable o
in e es is iden i ied by he coun y and ime a ia ion in he
ag eemen s ha en e ed in o o ce du ing he s udy pe iod.
4 | Da a
Ou empi ical analyses depend on da a om wo main sou ces:
da a on Swiss FTAs and da a on Swiss bila e al ade, as de-
ailed below.
4.1 | FTAs
Ou p ima y da a sou ce on Swiss FTAs is he S a e Sec e a y
o Economic A ai s (SECO 2023). In addi ion o he EFTA
Con en ion and he FTA wi h he Eu opean Union, Swi ze land
cu en ly has a ne wo k o 33 FTAs wi h 43 pa ne s. Figu e1
illus a es he ne wo k o pa ne coun ies wi h which
Swi ze land has FTAs. In con as o FTAs concluded join ly
as he EFTA bloc, ag icul u al concessions a e o en g an ed in
sepa a e bila e al ag icul u al ag eemen s be ween Swi ze land
and i s ading pa ne s. Fo ins ance, he ag eemen conce ning
ade in ag icul u al p oduc s be ween Albania and Swi ze land
was concluded ollowing he FTA be ween Albania and he
EFTA coun ies. These ag eemen s a e designed o add ess he
speci ici ies o ag icul u al ade, which o en in ol es mo e
complex egula o y and a i s uc u es han ade in indus-
ial goods. These can ake he o m o TRQs, eba es o p ice
1338 Kyklos, 2025
compensa ion mechanisms. Unlike FTAs o indus ial goods,
which gene ally ensu e he ull elimina ion o a i s, ag icul-
u al ag eemen s ea u e mo e nuanced concessions. Ta i s
on ag icul u al p oduc s a e signi ican ly highe han hose on
indus ial goods. Acco ding o he WTO, he la es ad alo em
equi alen s o he ade- weigh ed a e age MFN applied a es o
2021 a e 24.8% o ag icul u al p oduc s compa ed wi h only
0.7% o nonag icul u al impo s (Zimme mann2023). As hese
ag icul u e- speci ic ag eemen s do no in ol e he same le el o
libe alisa ion, hei ade e ec s may also be limi ed in compa -
ison o indus ial FTAs.
Figu e2 depic s he yea s in which he ag eemen s en e ed in o
o ce. I also illus a es he a ia ions ha we exploi in ou
empi ical analysis. Acco ding o he igu e, di e en coun ies
signed he ag eemen s wi h Swi ze land a di e en imes, al-
lowing ou iden i ica ion s a egy o exploi his ime and coun-
y a ia ion in he en y in o o ce o he ag eemen s. Aside
om he EFTA Con en ion and he ag eemen s wi h he EU,
which da e a back o he 1960s and 1970s, he oldes ag eemen
is he Swiss–Tü kiye FTA, which has since been mode nised,
wi h he upda ed ag eemen becoming ac i e in Oc obe 2021.
FTA nego ia ions a e cu en ly unde way wi h Koso o, India,
Vie nam, Malaysia and he MERCOSUR, while nego ia ions
wi h he Russia–Bela us–Kazakhs an Cus oms Union ha e been
suspended. To accoun o hi d- coun y bila e al ag eemen s
ha a e ou side he con ol o Swi ze land, we use da a om
he egional ade ag eemen da abase main ained by Egge and
La ch(2008) and coun he numbe o FTAs hese coun ies a e
signa o ies o in a yea ha do no include Swi ze land.
FIGURE 1 | Swiss FTAs in 2022. No e: The map shows which coun ies ha e a ee ade ag eemen wi h Swi ze land in 2022. The bila e al
FTAs include hose signed bila e ally wi h Swi ze land and hose signed oge he as pa o he EFTA. Sou ce: The Swiss FTA Moni o (SECO2023).
[Colou igu e can be iewed a wileyonlinelib a y.com]
FIGURE 2 | Swiss ee ade pa ne s in 2022 and yea s o en y in o o ce o he ag eemen . No e: Fo cla i y o p esen a ion, we exclude he
EFTA Con en ion which came in o o ce in 1960 and he FTA wi h he Eu opean Communi y membe s in 1973. SACU s ands o he Sou h A ican
Cus oms Union and includes Sou h A ica, Bo swana, Eswa ini, Leso ho and Namibia. CAS ep esen s he Cen al Ame ican S a es o Cos a Rica,
Gua emala, Hondu as and Panama. GCC ep esen s he Gul Coope a ion Council membe s: Bah ain, Kuwai , Oman, Qa a , Saudi A abia and he
Uni ed A ab Emi a es. Sou ce: SECO(2023). [Colou igu e can be iewed a wileyonlinelib a y.com]
1339
4.2 | Ag icul u al T ade Da a
Ou analysis ocuses on he ag icul u al sec o , de ined ac-
co ding o he Swiss Fede al O ice o Ag icul u e o include
HS01–H24 (excluding ish and ish p oduc s, HS03), 290543,
290544, 3301, 3501–3505, 380910, 382360, 4101–4103, 4301,
5001–5003, 5101–5103, 5201–5203, 5301 and 5302. We analyse
Swiss cus oms ade da a (Swiss- Impex2023) a he le el o he
pa ne coun y and HS6- digi p oduc s o e ime. I includes
da a on impo quan i ies in kilog ams (kg) and impo alues
in Swiss F ancs (CHF). A p elimina y glance a he da a con-
i ms ha mos Swiss ade occu s wi h FTA pa ne s, wi h his
end inc easing o e ime (Figu e3). Fu he mo e, as shown in
TableA2 in he appendix, he majo i y o Swiss bila e al ade is
wi h EU membe s. Howe e , FTAs wi h non- EU coun ies also
play a signi ican ole in Swiss ade policy. In agg ega e, ap-
p oxima ely 84% o Swiss ade occu s wi h FTA pa ne s, while
only abou 16% o Swiss ade occu s wi h coun ies ha do no
ha e an FTA wi h Swi ze land.
Figu esA2 and A3 in he appendix map he geog aphic dis ibu-
ion o Swiss ade lows, highligh ing di e se ading pa ne s.
Eu opean Union membe s a es domina e Swiss impo s, wi h
Ge many, I aly and he Ne he lands as key supplie s. Ou side
Eu ope, he Uni ed S a es, China and B azil a e no able ade
pa ne s, while impo s om de eloping egions such as A ica
and Sou h Ame ica ocus on p ima y p oduc s, wi h Mo occo,
Colombia, Cô e d'I oi e and Ghana making signi ican con i-
bu ions. Swi ze land's expo s, meanwhile, a e concen a ed
in Eu opean ma ke s, pa icula ly Ge many, Aus ia and he
Uni ed Kingdom, wi h he Uni ed S a es and Japan being majo
non- Eu opean pa ne s. Swi ze land also expo s o eme ging
ma ke s, such as China, India and B azil.
The composi ion o aded p oduc s is equally impo an . Swiss
impo s a e domina ed by p ima y ag icul u al goods, wi h high
sha es in ui s and nu s (HS08) and ege ables (HS07), e lec -
ing dependence on o eign supplies. Ce eals (HS10) and oil seeds
(HS12) also ha e signi ican impo sha es, wi h minimal expo s.
O he sec o s, such as be e ages, spi i s and inega (HS22) and
dai y p oduce (HS04), e lec subs an ial impo s. By con as ,
Swiss expo s a e concen a ed on high- alue, p ocessed ag i-
cul u al p oduc s. Be e ages, spi i s and inega (HS22) lead he
expo lows, ollowed by dai y p oduc s (HS04) and p epa a ions
o ce eals (HS19). Niche sec o s, such as cocoa and cocoa p epa-
a ions (HS18) and miscellaneous edible p epa a ions (HS21),
highligh Swi ze land's compe i i e ad an age in high- quali y,
alue- added p oduc ion. These pa e ns e eal Swi ze land's s a -
egy o impo ing aw ma e ials while excelling in p ocessed, high-
alue expo s in niche global ma ke s.
Recen ad ancemen s in he s uc u al g a i y li e a u e empha-
sise he impo ance o including in ana ional ade lows, as
hey allow he iden i ica ion o in e na ional ade cos s ela i e
o domes ic ade cos s (Yo o e al.2016; Yo o 2022). Howe e ,
due o da a limi a ions, mos empi ical applica ions, including
ou s, ely solely on in e na ional ade da a. In ou case, we
lack domes ic ade da a a he HS6 digi le el o Swi ze land.
Wi hou a domes ic ade benchma k, we canno ully assess
whe he inc eased in e na ional ade lows unde FTAs e-
place o complemen domes ic p oduc ion. This is a key issue in
he ag icul u al sec o , whe e domes ic p oduc ion o en mee s
a sha e o demand and may espond di e en ly o FTAs han
in e na ional ade.
4.3 | Auxilia y Da a
Swiss- Impex(2023) also p o ides access o da a on speci ic a -
i s in CHF/kg imposed on impo s om pa ne coun ies o e
ime. Swi ze land s ands ou in i s a i applica ion as one o
he ew coun ies ha explici ly exp ess a i s in speci ic o pe -
uni e ms. Gi en ha hese a i s a e ixed amoun s pe uni
a he han a pe cen age o alue, hei impac depends on he
p ice o he p oduc . As such, pe - uni a i s place a hea ie bu -
den on lowe p iced i ems wi hin a gi en a i line. De eloping
coun ies, which ypically expo a lowe p ices, ace highe
ad alo em equi alen s o he same speci ic a i compa ed
wi h high- income coun ies. As a esul , while speci ic a i s
may appea nondisc imina o y as MFN measu es, hey can
e ec i ely disc imina e agains de eloping coun ies' expo s
(Chowdhu y2012; Fianko e al.2024). Howe e , he a i s a e
only epo ed when ade lows a e obse ed. Thus, when we in-
oduce ze o ade obse a ions, in o ma ion on a i s is miss-
ing. To deal wi h his si ua ion, we eso o he MAcMap- HS6
da abase main ained by he CEPII and he In e na ional T ade
Cen e (Guimba d e al.2012). As he MAcMap da ase is a ail-
able only o e e y hi d yea be ween 2007 and 2019, we in e -
pola e using da a om p e ious yea s whene e we encoun e
missing da a. While his is limi ing, he e emain subs an ial
challenges wi h he quali y o publicly epo ed a i da a, espe-
cially when mul iple coun ies a e conce ned. Te i(2023) high-
ligh s ha s anda d sou ces o a i da a su e om signi ican
measu emen e o s due o mis epo ing and he esul ing alse
impu a ions, which lead o a i icial spikes in bila e al ime se-
ies da a and, consequen ly, cause massi e inaccu acies in he
measu emen s.
We also include da a on NTMs, which a e policy measu es o he
han a i s ha a ec in e na ional ade by a ec ing quan i-
ies, p ices o bo h (UNCTAD2019). As a i s ha e been sig-
ni ican ly libe alised since he es ablishmen o he WTO, he e
has been a concu en ise in s anda d- like NTMs as ools o
ma ke access. The e o e, i is c ucial o accoun o hese NTMs
FIGURE 3 | Swiss ag icul u al impo s by FTA s a us o he pa -
ne s. [Colou igu e can be iewed a wileyonlinelib a y.com]
1340 Kyklos, 2025
in ou es ima ions. Gi en ha he p oli e a ion and inc easing
ele ance o NTMs, including hose in Swi ze land, a e d i en
by sani a y and phy osani a y (SPS) and echnical ba ie s o
ade (TBT) measu es (I ek2022; Fianko 2023b), we accoun
o NTMs using he agg ega e p oduc - le el numbe o SPS and
TBT measu es imposed by Swi ze land on impo s om an o -
igin coun y each yea . The da a on NTMs a e accessed om
he WTO's comp ehensi e da a on NTM no i ica ions ia he
T ade Analysis and In o ma ion Sys em (UNCTAD2019). Da a
on GDP a e accessed om he Wo ld Bank Wo ld De elopmen
Indica o s.
Ou inal es ima ion sample co e s impo s om 202 coun ies
(see TableA3), 730 HS6- digi p oduc s, o e 19 yea s (i.e., 2004–
2022). Summa y s a is ics on all he a iables included in he
es ima ion a e p esen ed in TableA4 in he appendix.
5 | Resul s and Discussion
We p esen and discuss he esul s o ou analysis in his sec ion.
We i s p esen he a e age e ec s be o e assessing whe he and
o wha ex en hey a e he e ogeneous along he h ee dimen-
sions, and end by assessing dynamic e ec s.
5.1 | Baseline Findings
We p esen he a e age e ec o Swiss FTAs on impo s in
Table 1, wi h each column depic ing one o he i e impo
ma gins. In column (1), we ind ha , on a e age, he p esence
o an FTA leads o an 8.5% inc ease in impo alues. In e ms o
magni ude, his coe icien ansla es in o an e ec size o 8.75%.7
In column (2), we ind no s a is ically signi ican e ec o FTAs
on impo quan i ies. In column (3), we ind a nega i e e ec o
FTAs on impo p ices; speci ically, FTAs dec ease impo p ices
by 3.4%. A he ex ensi e ma gin, we ind ha FTAs inc ease he
p obabili y o ade by wo pe cen age poin s and dec ease he
p obabili y o ma ke exi a es by one pe cen age poin .8 Tha we
do no obse e a s a is ically signi ican change in impo quan i-
ies is inconsis en wi h he heo e ical amewo k in Figu eA1.
Howe e , he inding ha FTAs inc ease impo alues and im-
po p obabili ies and lowe impo p ices and ma ke exi a es
con i ms ou a p io i expec a ions. These indings a e also consis-
en wi h he exis ing empi ical li e a u e. A ecen me a- analysis
o he e ec s o ade ag eemen s on ag icul u al ade based on
61 empi ical s udies and 1961 e ec sizes (A eso gbo e al.2024)
ind ha ade ag eemen s gene ally ha e a posi i e and signi -
ican e ec on ag icul u al and ood ade. The ac ha FTAs
do no lead o an inc ease in impo quan i ies sugges s ha he
nega i e p ice e ec ou weighs he quan i y e ec . This phenom-
enon is consis en wi h he idea ha he cos sa ings om lowe
a i s may no be ully passed h ough o domes ic consume s
bu may be pa ially cap u ed by o eign supplie s. Addi ionally,
he educ ion in ade cos s may incen i ise he en y o highe
quali y goods, which a e p iced highe , inc easing impo alues
wi hou a p opo ional ise in quan i ies.
On he e ec s o hi d- coun y ag eemen s, we ind ha an
ex a ag eemen signed by a pa ne coun y ha excludes
TABLE 1 | The e ec o Swiss FTAs on di e en ma gins o Swiss ag icul u al impo s.
Ou come a iable
In ensi e ma gin Ex ensi e ma gin
Impo alues Impo quan i y Impo p ices Impo p obabili y Impo ma ke exi
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
FTAo
0.085*** −0.020 −0.032*** 0.021*** −0.010***
(0.029) (0.037) (0.010) (0.002) (0.003)
Thi d Coun y FTAd≠CHE
o
0.000 −0.003* −0.001** 0.001*** −0.001***
(0.002) (0.002) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
logGDPo
0.458*** 0.319*** 0.154*** 0.034*** −0.018***
(0.031) (0.034) (0.010) (0.002) (0.003)
NTMop
−0.061*** −0.039*** −0.000 −0.002*** 0.002***
(0.006) (0.007) (0.002) (0.000) (0.000)
log(
1+Ta i
op )
−0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
P oduc – ime FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
O igin–p oduc FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Obse a ions 587,108 587,108 206,194 587,108 484,345
Es ima o PPML PPML OLS LPM LPM
No e: ***, ** and * deno e signi icance a 1%, 5% and 10%, espec i ely. In e cep s a e included bu a e no epo ed. Clus e – obus s anda d e o s a e in pa en heses.
The di e ences in he numbe o obse a ions ac oss columns a e due o di e ences in es ima o s. Columns (1), (2), (4) and (5) accoun o ze o ade obse a ions,
which a e d opped in column (3). The numbe o obse a ions in column (5) di e s because coun ies expo ing o a p oduc des ina ion ma ke e e y yea a e
excluded om he exi analysis.
1347
simila pa e ns. Fo example, Fianko (2023a) shows ha a
Swiss i m expo ed he same HS8- digi p oduc , ‘ha d cheese’
(HS 0406 9099), o 18 coun ies, wi h ee- on- boa d (FOB)
p ices anging om 10.70 CHF/kg in Pe u o 16.00 CHF/kg
in Sou h Ko ea. While such p ice di e ences may a ise om
expo e s a bi a ily adjus ing ma kups, hey may also e-
lec quali y a ia ions, such as mo e du able packaging o
highe - cos ma ke s. Unlike aw ag icul u al p oduc s, whe e
quali y di e en ia ion is limi ed, Swiss ag i- ood expo s a e
la gely p ocessed p oduc s whe e quali y so ing is common.
This sugges s ha Swiss expo e s may ailo p oduc quali y
ac oss des ina ions. A he ex ensi e ma gin, we ind no s a is-
ically signi ican e ec o FTAs. As o whe he he e ec s we
ind a e he e ogeneous ac oss basic and p ocessed p oduc s,
we show in TableA5 ha his is no he case o expo s.
In ela ion o he e ec s we es ima e o impo s, he expo -
side e ec s a e la ge in economic magni ude. Wha explains
he asymme y in he size o he ade e ec s o expo s and
impo s? Al hough ou es ima es canno p o ide di ec an-
swe s, we can o e plausible easons based on he policy en i-
onmen . Fi s , i is impo an o no e ha hese a e age e ec s
a e condi ional on he alue o exis ing impo s and expo s be-
ween ade pa ne s a he incep ion o he ag eemen . Second,
he concessions g an ed by Swi ze land's ade pa ne s a e
o en mo e subs an ial, as hese pa ne s ypically ha e ewe
de ensi e posi ions in ag icul u e. In con as , Swiss ag icul-
u al policy is highly p o ec ionis , wi h signi ican a i s and
NTMs limi ing he scope o libe alisa ion on impo s. As a e-
sul , he ela i e gains om FTAs on impo s may be smalle ,
gi en Swi ze land's cons ained concessions. Thi d, he na u e
o he aded p oduc s hemsel es plays a key ole. Swiss ag i-
cul u al expo s, such as cheese and o he high- alue p ocessed
goods such as co ee and chocola e, a e o en niche p oduc s
wi h s ong in e na ional demand. FTAs enhance ma ke ac-
cess, leading o disp opo iona ely la ge gains in expo alue
and quan i y. By con as , s ong p o ec ions o sensi i e do-
mes ic p oduc s limi he po en ial o signi ican impo in-
c eases. Las ly, NTMs u he con ibu e o his asymme y.
Whe eas FTAs educe a i s, NTMs—such as TRQs, quali y
s anda ds and ce i ica ion equi emen s— emain pa icula ly
es ic i e o ag icul u al impo s in o Swi ze land (Fianko
e al.2025; Fianko and Shingal2025). These cons ain s can
dampen impo g ow h despi e a i educ ions. Con e sely,
Swiss expo s may adap mo e eadily o he pa ne coun y's
s anda ds, esul ing in g ea e expo inc eases.
7 | Conclusions
The WTO has been making li le p og ess in mul ila e al ade
libe alisa ion o yea s. As a esul , since he Doha ound, we
ha e obse ed a ise in he numbe o bila e al FTAs. Swi ze land
has kep pace wi h his end, signing nume ous FTAs. In 2024,
Swi ze land had in place a ne wo k o 33 FTAs wi h 43 pa ne s.
Among he p ima y goals o hese ag eemen s is o acili a e
ade among membe coun ies, allowing consume s o bene i
om lowe p ices and inc eased p oduc a ie y. The aim o his
pape is o assess whe he hese objec i es a e achie ed in p ac-
ice. Speci ically, we assess he e ec o Swiss FTAs on di e en
ma gins o ag icul u al impo s o e he pe iod be ween 2004
and 2022. Fu he mo e, because pa ne coun ies o en sign
addi ional FTAs wi h o he coun ies, we also assess how he
ne wo k o FTAs Swiss pa ne s a e in ol ed in in luences hei
expo s o Swi ze land. Empi ically, we si ua e ou analysis
wi hin a g a i y amewo k and es ima e a educed- o m g a -
i y model.
Ou indings show ha Swiss FTAs inc ease impo s, de-
c ease impo p ices and educe ma ke exi a es. These ind-
ings a e, howe e , he e ogeneous along di e en dimensions.
Swiss FTAs inc ease he impo alues and quan i ies o aw
p oduc s bu dec ease he impo s o p ocessed p oduc s. We
ind u he he e ogeneous e ec s ac oss HS2- digi p oduc
sec o s and o indi idual ag eemen s. Thus, while he a e -
age e ec s o Swiss FTAs on impo s and p oduc p ices a e
in line wi h ou heo e ical p io s and he a ailable empi ical
e idence, he he e ogenei ies we ind also highligh he im-
po ance o examining di e en sec o s and ag eemen s and
suppo ou empi ical choice o going beyond jus he a e age
e ec s. Ne e heless, hese he e ogenei ies also sugges ha
in some cases, he indings a e inconsis en wi h heo e ical
p io s. Fo ins ance, in some cases, we ind ha FTAs de-
c ease impo s.
Ou empi ical indings a e no wi hou limi a ions. The exis-
ence o he ag eemen only sol es he ade ba ie issue bu
does no e lec he quali y o domes ic ins i u ions and ade-
ela ed in as uc u e o local shocks (e.g., clima e change and
ex eme wea he e en s, poli ical ins abili y and economic c i-
sis) in he p oduc –o igin coun y. As long as hese ac o s e-
main coun y- and ime- speci ic, hey canno be cap u ed by
ou model speci ica ions. In his case, ou FTA e ec s may be
biased, as he FTA a iable picks up o he con ounding ac o s
ha d i e ade.
Recen e iews o he egional ade ag eemen li e a u e, such
as hose by La ch and Yo o (2024) and he me a- analysis by
A eso gbo e al.(2024), show ha al hough ade ag eemen s
gene ally enhance ade, in cases o indi idual ag eemen s o
p oduc s, he empi ical indings do no always align wi h he
heo e ical p edic ions. As such, e en i Swiss FTAs gene ally
achie e he in ended ade e ec s o which hey we e signed,
policymake s should keep hese associa ed he e ogenei ies in
mind when using a e age FTA es ima es o coun e ac ual
analysis and/o ade nego ia ions.
Acknowledgemen s
This p ojec bene i ed om ex ensi e eedback om membe s o
he T ade Rela ions Uni o he Swiss Fede al O ice o Ag icul u e
(FOAG). We a e especially g a e ul o he insigh ul commen s p o-
ided by Axel Tonini and Y an Dec eux. We also hank he handling
edi o , Ch is oph A. Schal egge , and wo anonymous e e ees o hei
aluable sugges ions. Open Access unding enabled and o ganized by
P ojek DEAL.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen
The da a ha suppo he indings o his s udy a e openly a ailable om
publicly a ailable da a sou ces ha a e all men ioned in he manusc ip .

1348 Kyklos, 2025
Endno es
1 The e ms big coun y and small coun y he e is used wi hou p ej-
udice o he economic size o he coun ies. The small coun y case
e e ences a si ua ion whe e a coun y's impo s cons i u e a e y
small sha e o he wo ld ma ke and, he e o e, do no in luence
wo ld ma ke p ices. In his con ex , an exis ing s udy ha also ex-
amines he ag icul u al sec o in small economies is Copenhagen
Economics (2016). Howe e , ou s udy di e s in ocus: while
Copenhagen Economics(2016) analyses ade ela ionships be ween
he EU common ma ke (a la ge economy) and i s pa ne s, we ex-
amine ade ela ionships be ween a small coun y and i s ade
pa ne s.
2 The e a e also ade p og ams such as he Gene alised Sys em o
P e e ences (GSP) designed o p omo e economic g ow h in de el-
oping coun ies by gi ing hem p e e en ial access o he ma ke s
o de eloped coun ies. Unde he GSP, selec ed goods om eligible
de eloping coun ies can en e he impo ing coun y a educed o
ze o a i a es. The GSP g an s de eloping coun ies non- ecip ocal,
p e e en ial ma ke access o de eloped coun ies h ough educed
o ze o a i s, unlike FTAs, which a e ecip ocal a angemen s wi h
mu ual obliga ions. Ou ocus he e is on ecip ocal a angemen s.
3 Much o he li e a u e assessing he e ec s o ade ag eemen s o-
cuses on mul iple coun ies (e.g., Baie and Be gs and2007; Baie
e al. 2019; Sun and Reed2010; Jean and Bu eau 2016). Howe e ,
a smalle subse o s udies examines he impac s o ade ag ee-
men s on speci ic coun ies, including Japan (Yamanouchi 2019;
Ando e al.2022), Canada (McDougall2020), India (Jagdambe and
Kannan2020), and he Uni ed S a es (Ajewole e al.2022). Ou wo k
con ibu es o his second s eam o li e a u e by p o iding a ocused
analysis on Swi ze land.
4 Two main assump ions unde lie he model. Fi s , goods a e di e -
en ia ed by coun y o o igin (i.e., he A ming on assump ion) such
ha wo goods o he same kind coming om di e en coun ies a e
impe ec subs i u es, o example, Ge man, and I alian cheese a e
dis inc goods in he composi e g oup cheese. Thus, he eason Swiss
consume s pu chase o eign goods is ha hey a e di e en om he
ones p oduced a home. O he mo i a ions may exis o pu chasing
o eign goods, o example, in a Rica dian wo ld, o eign goods will
be pu chased because hey a e p oduced mo e e icien ly ab oad han
a home. Second, consume p e e ences a e iden ical and homo he ic
ac oss coun ies and cap u ed by a cons an elas ici y o subs i u ion
(CES) u ili y unc ion. Gi en ha he o mal de i a ion o he g a i y
equa ion is now s anda d in he li e a u e (see, e.g., Ande son and Van
Wincoop2003; Yo o e al.2016), we do no ep oduce he de i a ion.
5 This choice is mo i a ed by challenges in ob aining de ailed da a
on p oduc - le el p e e en ial ma gins ac oss mul iple coun ies.
Ne e heless, using an FTA dummy enables us o conside he
b oade con ex o FTAs, which o en in ol e no only a i p e e -
ences bu also quo a a angemen s and educ ions in o he non- a i
and quo a ba ie s. This app oach is s anda d in he ade li e a u e
(Baie and Be gs and2007; Baie e al.2019; Egge and La ch2008;
Egge e al.2022) and o e s a p ac ical way o es ima e ade e ec s
wi hou equi ing de ailed da a on p oduc - speci ic a i educ ions
o concessions, which a e o en di icul o compile ac oss mul iple
ag eemen s. The limi a ion, howe e , is ha ou model abs ac s om
he complexi y o indi idual concessions wi hin FTAs, and ou e -
ec s e lec he cumula i e impac o hese indi idual concessions.
6 Add essing his conce n using ins umen al a iable echniques is
challenging because e y o en wha de e mines he p obabili y o
sign a ade ag eemen also a ec s he olume o ade lows. The in-
e es ed eade should e e o La ch and Yo o (2024) o a discussion
o hese issues.
7 The ade e ec o an FTA can be calcula ed as [exp(β1) − 1] × 100.
8 We also es ima e he e ec o FTAs on he ex ensi e ma gins using
logi and p obi models. The esul s p esen ed in Table A5 o he
Appendix a e in line wi h ou main indings in e ms o di ec ion,
magni ude, and s a is ical signi icance. Thus, he choice o es ima o
does no in luence ou esul s.
9 Basic p oduc s a e de ined o include p oduc s o HS sec ions 01–14,
excluding Sec ion4.3, headings 0402–0406 and 0408, and subhead-
ing 0801.32, plus headings 1801, 1802, 2401, 5001, 5101 o 5103,
5201, 5202, 5301 and 5302. E e y hing else is conside ed a p ocessed
p oduc . This de ini ion was p o ided by he Swiss Fede al O ice o
Ag icul u e (FOAG) based on he o icial de ini ions adop ed by he
Swiss Sec e a ia o Economic A ai s (SECO).
10 Fo cases in which he ag eemen s a e signed wi hin a bloc such as
SACU o he EU, we assess he e ec s a he coun y- le el. Fo in-
s ance, o he e ec o he EU- Swi ze land associa ion ag eemen ,
we es ima e di e en e ec s o C oa ia and Romania ha joined he
EU o e he s udy pe iod. No e ha we a e unable o es ima e unique
e ec s o he ounding membe s o he EU as he e is no a ia ion in
he FTA dummy o hem o e he s udy pe iod. Fo membe s o he
Gul Coope a ion Council, we also es ima e coun y- speci ic e ec s
o Bah ain, Kuwai , Oman, Qa a , Saudi A abia and he Uni ed A ab
Emi a es. Thus, in essence, he a ia ion we exploi he e is mo e a
he coun y le el ha a he ag eemen le el.
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1350 Kyklos, 2025
Appendix A
A.1 | Tables
TABLE A1 | HS2 p oduc sec o s and hei impo and expo sha es.
HS2 p oduc sec o
Impo sha e
(%)
Expo sha e
(%)
HS01: Animals, li e 0.01 0.11
HS02: Mea 3.52 0.90
HS04: Dai y p oduce 3.91 6.43
HS05: Animal p oduc s, nes 0.76 3.89
HS06: T ees and o he plan s 3.78 0.08
HS07: Vege ables 8.66 0.22
HS08: F ui s and nu s 10.68 0.23
HS09: Co ee, ea, ma e,
spices
3.60 2.45
HS10: Ce eals 5.99 0.13
HS11: P oduc s o milling
indus y
2.95 0.32
HS12: Oil seeds 5.10 0.21
HS13: Lac; na u al gums,
esins
0.27 0.17
HS14: Vege able plai ing
ma e ials
0.19 0.11
HS15: Animal, ege able a s
& oils
5.40 0.82
HS16: P epa a ions: mea ,
ish
0.52 0.04
HS17: Suga s & suga
con ec ione y
4.16 1.20
HS18: Cocoa & cocoa
p epa a ions
2.15 4.99
HS19: P epa a ions: ce eals 1.05 6.69
HS20: P epa a ions:
ege ables, ui s
6.99 4.28
HS21: Misc. edible
p epa a ions
3.40 6.39
HS22: Be e ages, spi i s,
inega
13.80 51.88
HS23: Residues o ood
indus y
8.61 4.59
HS24: Tobacco 1.11 1.49
HS29: O ganic chemicals 0.34 0.01
HS33: Essen ial oils and
esinoids
0.34 0.90
HS35: Albuminoidal
subs ances
1.54 0.69
HS38: Misc. chemical
p oduc s
0.77 0.03
(Con inues)
TABLE A2 | Swiss ag icul u al ade ela ionships wi h FTA and
non- FTA pa ne s in 2022.
Pa ne Impo s Expo s T ade Sha e o ade (%)
EFTA 137 85 222 0.78
EU 13,102 5409 18,511 65.33
FTA 2194 2737 4931 17.40
No FTA 2146 2526 4672 16.49
To al 17,579 10,757 28,336 100.00
No e: T ade is he sum o impo s and expo s. Impo s, expo s and ade alues
a e in million CHF. Da a used o he calcula ions come om Swiss- Impex.
The ‘No FTA’ g oup is de i ed as he esidual di e ence be ween he o al
epo ed ade lows and he ade alues ha all wi hin he h ee FTA g oups.
Fu he mo e, gi en ha unila e al ade p e e ences a e no FTAs, i is possible
ha he ‘No FTA’ g oup includes impo s om de eloping and leas de eloped
coun ies ha enjoy non ecip ocal p e e en ial expo s o Swi ze land unde he
GSP scheme.
HS2 p oduc sec o
Impo sha e
(%)
Expo sha e
(%)
HS41: Raw hides and skins 0.00 0.68
HS43: Fu skins and a i icial
u
0.00 0.00
HS50: Silk 0.00 0.00
HS51: Wool 0.03 0.03
HS52: Co on 0.35 0.06
HS53: O he ege able ex ile
ib es
0.03 0.00
TABLE A1 | (Con inued)
1351
TABLE A3 | Lis o coun ies included in he s udy.
A uba, A ghanis an, Angola, Albania, Ando a, A gen ina, A menia, Ame ican Samoa, An igua and Ba buda, Aus alia, Aus ia, Aze baijan,
Bu undi, Belgium, Benin, Bu kina Faso, Bangladesh, Bulga ia, Bah ain, Bahamas, Bosnia and He zego ina, Bela us, Belize, Be muda,
Boli ia, B azil, Ba bados, B unei, Bhu an, Bo swana, Cen al A ican Republic, Canada, Chile, China, Co e d'I oi e, Came oon, Democ a ic
Republic o he Congo, The Republic o he Congo, Colombia, Como os, Cape Ve de, Cos a Rica, Cuba, Cu acao, Cayman Islands, Cyp us,
Czech Republic, Ge many, Djibou i, Dominica, Denma k, Dominican Republic, Ecuado , Egyp , E i ea, Spain, Es onia, E hiopia, Finland,
F ance, Fa oe Islands, Mic onesia, Gabon, Geo gia, Ghana, Gambia, Equa o ial Guinea, G eece, G enada, G eenland, Gua emala, Guyana,
Hong Kong, Hondu as, C oa ia, Hai i, Hunga y, Indonesia, India, I eland, I an, I aq, Iceland, Is ael, I aly, Jamaica, Jo dan, Japan, Kazakhs an,
Kenya, Ky gyzs an, Cambodia, Sain Ki s and Ne is, Sou h Ko ea, Kuwai , Laos, Lebanon, Libe ia, Libya, Ame ican Samoa, S i Lanka,
Leso ho, Li huania, Luxembou g, La ia, Macao, Mo occo, Moldo a, Madagasca , Maldi es, Mexico, Ma shall Islands, No h Macedonia, Mali,
Mal a, Myanma , Mon eneg o, Mongolia, No he n Ma iana Islands, Mozambique, Mau i ania, Mau i ius, Malawi, Malaysia, Namibia, New
Caledonia, Nige , Nige ia, Nica agua, Ne he lands, No way, Nepal, Nau u, New Zealand, Oman, Pakis an, Panama, Pe u, Philippines, Papua
New Guinea, Poland, Po ugal, Pa aguay, Pales ine, F ench Polynesia, Qa a , Romania, Russian Fede a ion, Rwanda, Saudi A abia, Sudan,
Senegal, Singapo e, Solomon Islands, Sie a Leone, Slo enia, San Ma ino, Somalia, Se bia, Sou h Sudan, Sao Tome and P incipe, Su iname,
Slo akia, Slo enia, Sweden, Swaziland, Seychelles, Sy ia, Tu ks and Caicos Islands, Chad, Togo, Thailand, Tajikis an, Tu kmenis an, Timo -
Les e, Tonga, T inidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Tü kiye, Tu alu, Tanzania, Uganda, Uk aine, U uguay, Uni ed Kingdom, Uni ed S a es, Uni ed
A aba Emi a es, Uzbekis an, S . Vincen and he G enadines, Venezuela, US Vi gin Islands, Vie Nam, Vanua u, Yemen, Sou h A ica, Zambia,
Zimbabwe.
TABLE A4 | Summa y s a is ics o a iables included in he es ima ion.
Va iable Mean SD Min Max NUni
Impo alueop
2,805,434 3,371,736 0360,572,139 669,864 CHF
Expo aluedp
298,200 5,135,876 0831,598,983 490,637 CHF
Impo quan i yop
76,122 619,352 030,022,336 669,864 Kg
Expo quan i ydp
91,542 6,132,433 01,578,214,294 490,637 Kg
Impo p iceop
37 685 0207,386 235,830 CHF/kg
Expo p icedp
100 1566 0419,885 136,268 CHF/kg
GDPo
1,095,511 2,808,794 223 25,439,700 656,877 Million USD
NTMop
12 12 052 669,864
Ta i op
523 1821 022,430 669,864 CHF/kg
FTAo
0.532 0.499 0 1 669,864
Thi d Coun y FTAo
22.848 20.267 066 666,881
1352 Kyklos, 2025
TABLE A6 | The e ec o FTAs on di e en ma gins o Swiss ag icul u al expo s ac oss basic and p ocessed p oduc ypes.
Ou come a iable
In ensi e ma gin Ex ensi e ma gin
Impo alues Impo olume Impo p ices Impo p obabili y Impo ma ke exi
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
FTAo
0.083 0.246 0.047 0.006 −0.005
(0.143) (0.158) (0.033) (0.006) (0.006)
FTAo
×
P ocessedp
0.166 0.118 −0.023 −0.007 0.006
(0.153) (0.165) (0.035) (0.007) (0.007)
Thi d Coun y FTAd≠CHE
o
−0.010*** −0.008*** −0.002*** 0.001*** −0.000***
(0.002) (0.003) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000)
logGDPo
0.695*** 0.208** 0.024 0.043*** −0.045***
(0.062) (0.097) (0.015) (0.003) (0.004)
NTMop
0.002 −0.005 0.001* 0.002*** −0.002***
(0.002) (0.003) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000)
log(
1+Ta i
op )
−0.000 −0.000 −0.000 0.000*** −0.000**
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
P oduc – ime FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
O igin–p oduc FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Obse a ions 362,303 362,303 115,616 362,303 306,582
Es ima o PPML PPML OLS LPM LPM
No e: ***, ** and * deno e signi icance a 1%, 5% and 10%, espec i ely. In e cep s a e included bu a e no epo ed. Clus e – obus s anda d e o s a e in pa en heses.
TABLE A5 | The e ec o FTAs on he ex ensi e ma gins o Swiss ag icul u al expo s: al e na i e es ima o s.
Ou come a iable
Impo p obabili y Impo ma ke exi
(1) (2) (3) (4)
FTAo
0.086*** 0.160*** −0.048*** −0.093***
(0.006) (0.011) (0.006) (0.011)
Thi d Coun y FTAo
0.005*** 0.009*** −0.006*** −0.010***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
logGDPo
0.154*** 0.278*** −0.080*** −0.147***
(0.001) (0.003) (0.001) (0.003)
NTMop
−0.006*** −0.011*** 0.007*** 0.013***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
log(1
+
Ta i op )
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
P oduc – ime FE Yes Yes Yes Yes
O igin–p oduc FE Yes Yes Yes Yes
Obse a ions 587,108 587,108 484,345 484,345
Es ima o P obi Logi P obi Logi
No e: ***, ** and * deno e signi icance a 1%, 5% and 10%, espec i ely. In e cep s a e included bu a e no epo ed. Clus e – obus s anda d e o s a e in pa en heses.

1353
TABLE A7 | Es ima es o speci ic ag eemen s (comple e able o esul s).
Impo alues Impo olume Impo p ices Impo p obabili y Impo ma ke exi
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
FTAo
−0.410*** −0.065 −0.062* −0.073*** 0.091***
(0.088) (0.104) (0.035) (0.011) (0.015)
FTAo
× Albania 1.090*** 1.464*** 0.224* 0.088*** −0.097***
(0.000) (0.337) (0.041) (0.000) (0.000)
FTAo
× U.A.E. −0.365 −0.331 −0.148* 0.092*** −0.088***
(0.315) (0.227) (0.085) (0.016) (0.019)
FTAo
× Bulga ia 0.457** 0.091 0.389*** 0.088*** −0.071***
(0.190) (0.333) (0.091) (0.016) (0.020)
FTAo
× Bah ain 1.965*** 1.787*** −0.313 0.023 −0.013
(0.639) (0.658) (0.392) (0.027) (0.029)
FTAo
× Bosnia 1.906*** 1.546*** 0.048 0.032* −0.039*
(0.175) (0.207) (0.059) (0.017) (0.021)
FTAo
× Bo swana 2.679** 1.419 −0.623 0.023 0.001
(1.335) (1.061) (0.762) (0.047) (0.056)
FTAo
× Canada 0.343** −0.320** −0.000 0.069*** −0.078***
(0.144) (0.157) (0.057) (0.014) (0.018)
FTAo
× Chile 0.210 −0.166 −0.005 0.109***
(0.240) (0.221) (0.105) (0.022)
FTAo
× China 0.366*** −0.361*** 0.056 0.194*** −0.267***
(0.105) (0.130) (0.042) (0.013) (0.017)
FTAo
× Colombia 0.606*** −0.268* 0.066 0.109*** −0.125***
(0.111) (0.157) (0.056) (0.015) (0.018)
FTAo
× Cos a Rica 0.636*** 0.416*** −0.146*** 0.016 −0.019
(0.129) (0.155) (0.056) (0.016) (0.020)
FTAo
× Ecuado 0.678*** 0.158 0.051 0.059*** −0.060**
(0.177) (0.175) (0.064) (0.021) (0.023)
FTAo
× Egyp 0.207 −0.595** −0.019 0.080*** −0.099***
(0.158) (0.255) (0.065) (0.015) (0.019)
FTAo
× Geo gia 1.193*** 0.840*** 0.266** 0.138*** −0.128***
(0.324) (0.301) (0.121) (0.021) (0.023)
FTAo
× Gua emala 0.361*** 0.055 −0.099 0.077*** −0.090***
(0.106) (0.173) (0.070) (0.018) (0.022)
FTAo
× Hong Kong 0.528* 0.387 −0.139* 0.099*** −0.103***
(0.278) (0.245) (0.081) (0.015) (0.019)
FTAo
× Hondu as 0.307*** 0.294* 0.137 0.059*** −0.062***
(0.117) (0.152) (0.098) (0.020) (0.023)
FTAo
× C oa ia 0.676*** 0.176 0.217*** 0.054*** −0.021
(0.161) (0.232) (0.058) (0.015) (0.019)
(Con inues)
1354 Kyklos, 2025
Impo alues Impo olume Impo p ices Impo p obabili y Impo ma ke exi
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
FTAo
× Indonesia 0.256* −0.057 0.155** 0.144*** −0.164***
(0.135) (0.209) (0.071) (0.025) (0.028)
FTAo
× Japan 0.803*** 0.348** −0.034 0.032** −0.051***
(0.146) (0.138) (0.050) (0.014) (0.019)
FTAo
× Ko ea 1.209** 1.122** −0.098 0.136*** −0.130***
(0.470) (0.567) (0.076) (0.017) (0.023)
FTAo
× Kuwai 1.615** 2.595*** −0.477** 0.043* −0.022
(0.784) (0.812) (0.227) (0.022) (0.025)
FTAo
× Lebanon 0.485** 0.311 0.270*** 0.105*** −0.124***
(0.214) (0.210) (0.069) (0.018) (0.024)
FTAo
× Leso ho 6.035*** 9.174*** 0.015 0.018
(1.146) (0.732) (0.054) (0.064)
FTAo
× Mon eneg o 2.342*** 0.685** −0.122 0.180*** −0.165***
(0.418) (0.345) (0.127) (0.023) (0.026)
FTAo
× Namibia −0.294 0.550 0.148 0.022 0.005
(0.430) (0.470) (0.128) (0.022) (0.028)
FTAo
× Oman −1.695** −3.063*** −0.622*** 0.015 −0.001
(0.666) (0.714) (0.236) (0.024) (0.027)
FTAo
× Panama 1.154*** 0.322 −0.064 0.053*** −0.062***
(0.290) (0.217) (0.104) (0.020) (0.023)
FTAo
× Pe u 1.030*** 0.804*** 0.001 0.199*** −0.221***
(0.147) (0.161) (0.053) (0.014) (0.018)
FTAo
× Philippines 0.023 −0.829*** 0.132*** 0.051*** −0.069***
(0.186) (0.283) (0.049) (0.016) (0.019)
FTAo
× Qa a 1.153 0.462 0.289 −0.016 0.027
(1.112) (0.931) (0.601) (0.027) (0.029)
FTAo
× Romania −0.472 −0.806** 0.102 0.105*** −0.087***
(0.358) (0.355) (0.095) (0.015) (0.019)
FTAo
× Saudi A abia 1.277*** 0.132 −0.294*** 0.049*** −0.044**
(0.487) (0.838) (0.104) (0.016) (0.019)
FTAo
× Se bia 1.464*** 1.113*** 0.052 0.160*** −0.122***
(0.159) (0.181) (0.057) (0.015) (0.019)
FTAo
× Swaziland 2.530*** 1.904*** 0.002 0.075** −0.056
(0.475) (0.634) (0.131) (0.030) (0.035)
FTAo
× Tunisia 0.990*** 1.042*** −0.146 0.092*** −0.080***
(0.195) (0.256) (0.100) (0.020) (0.027)
FTAo
× Uk aine 0.355 0.065 0.140* 0.150*** −0.136***
(0.242) (0.250) (0.078) (0.015) (0.019)
(Con inues)
TABLE A7 | (Con inued)
1355
TABLE A8 | The e ec o Swiss FTAs on di e en ma gins o Swiss ag icul u al impo s: Relaxing s ingency o ixed e ec s.
Impo alues Impo quan i ies Impo p ices Impo p obabili y Impo ma ke exi
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
FTAo
−0.011 0.098*** 0.047*** 0.004*** −0.002
(0.040) (0.030) (0.007) (0.002) (0.002)
Thi d Coun y FTAo
0.004*** 0.009*** 0.004*** 0.001*** −0.001***
(0.001) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
logGDPo
0.489*** 0.401*** 0.036*** 0.073*** −0.054***
(0.009) (0.007) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000)
NTMop
0.208*** 0.130*** −0.006*** 0.010*** −0.008***
(0.012) (0.010) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
log(1
+
Ta i op )
−0.000*** −0.000*** 0.000 0.000*** −0.000**
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Dis anceo
−0.288*** −0.235*** 0.168*** −0.038*** 0.025***
(0.022) (0.017) (0.004) (0.001) (0.001)
Bo de o
1.764*** 1.546*** −0.127*** 0.291*** −0.256***
(0.046) (0.043) (0.009) (0.002) (0.004)
Languageo
−0.590*** −0.241*** 0.078*** 0.028*** −0.019***
(0.042) (0.039) (0.007) (0.002) (0.002)
P oduc – ime FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Obse a ions 607,700 607,700 213,422 607,700 488,393
Es ima o PPML PPML OLS LPM LPM
No e: ***, ** and * deno e signi icance a 1%, 5% and 10%, espec i ely. In e cep s a e included bu a e no epo ed. Clus e – obus s anda d e o s a e in pa en heses.
Impo alues Impo olume Impo p ices Impo p obabili y Impo ma ke exi
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Thi d Coun y FTAo
0.001 −0.001 −0.002*** 0.001*** −0.002***
(0.002) (0.002) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
logGDPo
0.514*** 0.437*** 0.144*** 0.025*** −0.004
(0.037) (0.039) (0.010) (0.002) (0.003)
NTMop
−0.064*** −0.045*** −0.000 −0.002*** 0.002***
(0.006) (0.008) (0.002) (0.000) (0.000)
log(1
+
Ta i op )
−0.000 0.000 0.000 −0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
P oduc – ime FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
O igin–p oduc FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Obse a ions 587,108 587,108 206,194 587,108 484,345
Es ima o PPML PPML OLS LPM LPM
No e: ***, ** and * deno e signi icance a 1%, 5% and 10%, espec i ely. In e cep s a e included bu a e no epo ed. Clus e – obus s anda d e o s a e in pa en heses.
TABLE A7 | (Con inued)
1356 Kyklos, 2025
A.2 | The Economics o T ade Ag eemen s
S anda d mic oeconomic heo y p edic s ha ade ag eemen s gene a e e ms- o - ade gains o membe coun ies. To illus a e his, we p o ide
a simpli ied amewo k o analysing hese e ec s in a small open economy wi hin a pa ial equilib ium se ing (see also Plumme e al.2011). The
small coun y assump ion is app op ia e in his con ex , as Swi ze land's in e na ional ma ke in luence is ela i ely modes , accoun ing o jus
1.67% o global me chandise impo s and 2.96% o global impo s o comme cial se ices, which oge he ep esen 1.9% o o al global me chandise
and comme cial se ices impo s (Zimme mann2023). Figu eA1 depic s he domes ic ma ke o a speci ic good in a coun y p epa ing o join an
FTA. We e e o his coun y as he ‘home’ coun y, o he signa o ies o he FTA as pa ne coun ies and nonmembe coun ies o he FTA as ou -
side s. Be o e he FTA en e s in o o ce, he home coun y imposes a mos - a ou ed- na ion a i (
MFN
) on all impo s, i espec i e o hei o igin. We
exp ess a i s in speci ic e ms as a ixed mone a y amoun pe uni o impo s. A his s age, he home coun y collec s a i e enue equi alen o
he p oduc o he a i a e and he olume o impo s (i.e.,
MFN
×
[S0
−
D0]
). Addi ionally, we assume ha he ou side is he mos e icien p oduce
o he good and o e s he lowes p ice among he h ee.
Be o e he FTA, domes ic p oduce s supply S0 uni s o he good, while domes ic consume s demand
D0
uni s. The excess demand,
D0
−
S0
, is me
h ough impo s om he ou side , who supplies he p oduc a he lowes p ice. In his p e- FTA scena io, domes ic consume s in he home coun y
pay a p ice o
pHome
=
pOu side
+
MFN
pe uni o he good, assuming ha he p oduc is homogeneous o pe ec ly subs i u able. A e signing he
FTA, he emo al o a i s on impo s om he FTA pa ne educes he p ice o hese impo s o
pPa ne
, making hem cheape han impo s om
he ou side . This p ice educ ion leads o inc eased consump ion, wi h domes ic demand ising o
D1
. As a di ec consequence, impo s will inc ease
om
D0
−
S0
o
D1
−
S1
, wi h all impo s now sou ced om he FTA pa ne a he han he ou side . The lowe domes ic p ice also esul s in a e-
duc ion in local p oduc ion, wi h domes ic p oduce s supplying only
S1
. The ade c ea ion e ec o he FTA is ep esen ed by wo componen s. Fi s ,
he educ ion in domes ic p oduc ion,
S1
−
S0
, is eplaced by mo e e icien impo s om he pa ne coun y. Second, he inc ease in consump ion,
D1−D0
, is also sa is ied by addi ional impo s. O e all, ade c ea ion is cap u ed by he change in o al impo s due o he FTA: [
S1
−
D1
] − [
S0
−
D0
].
A.3 | Figu es
FIGURE A1 | The economic e ec s o ade ag eemen s on impo s in a small open economy.
FIGURE A2 | Impo sou ces. [Colou igu e can be iewed a wileyonlinelib a y.com]