Vo idis, He cules
A icle
A New Look a he Rela ionship o Real Balances o
Income, In e es Ra es, and In la ion in G eece – A No e
K edi und Kapi al
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Duncke & Humblo , Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Vo idis, He cules (1990) : A New Look a he Rela ionship o Real Balances o
Income, In e es Ra es, and In la ion in G eece – A No e, K edi und Kapi al, ISSN 0023-4591,
Duncke & Humblo , Be lin, Vol. 23, Iss. 2, pp. 196-203,
h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.23.2.196
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A New Look a he Rela ionship
o Real Balances o Income, In e es Ra es,
and In la ion in G eece
—
A No e
By He cules Vo idis*, A hen
I. In oduc ion
A se ies o pape s on he demand o money in G eece, i.e., B issimis and
Le en akis (1981, 1983), Hima ios (1983, 1987), Panayo opoulos (1984),
P od omidis (1984), Smi h (1985), Ta las (1987), ha e ecen ly appea ed in
his Jou nal. These sus ained a deba e, mainly abou he subs i u abili y o
na ow money wi h o he , domes ic, inancial and physical asse s, and abou
he s abili y o he demand o Ml. The pu pose o his no e is o pu o wa d
an al e na i e in e p e a ion o he ole o mone a y agg ega es in he G eek
economy, hus sugges ing a somewha di e en emphasis in s udies o he
demand o mone a y asse s.
The pe asi eness o inancial egula ion, (implemen ed by means o
adminis a i e in e es a e ceilings, ese e a ios, selec i e c edi con ols,
e c.), is, commonly, iden i ied as he p incipal ea u e o he G eek banking
sys em, see, e.g., Cou akis (1981), Halikias (1978), OECD (1986), e c. Such
an ins i u ional se ing calls o a speci ic analy ical amewo k. Elsewhe e,
he issue o he in e es elas ici y o money demand, and o in es men , a ose,
a some s age in he exchanges be ween "Keynesians" and "Mone a is s",
see Goodha (1975, Chap e 3, passim), because o conce n wi h c owding-
ou and wi h he ela i e po ency o mone a y policy. Howe e , he con en-
ional ansmission mechanism, whe eby an excess demand o cash spills
o e o an excess supply o bonds, hus bidding ma ke de e mined in e es
a es up, and hence in luencing agg ega e demand, is i ele an in G eece.1
* I wish o hank P o esso Cha les Goodha o his ho ough commen s. Any
emaining e o s and any opinions exp essed a e mine. Financial suppo , in he o m
o a pa ial schola ship, om he Alexande S. Onassis Public Bene i Founda ion, is
g a e ully acknowledged.
1 Bu ie (1984) and an Wijnbe gen (1983) eins a e he con en ional linkages, and
in oduce u he in e es sensi i i ies on he (agg ega e) supply side, o economies
wi h inancial sys ems simila o ha o G eece, on he assump ion o an, all-impo -
an , pa allel, equilib a ing, uno icial unds ma ke .
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Real Balances o Income, In e es Ra es, and In la ion in G eece 197
This is because, in e es a es a e, p ima acie, se exogenously. Ra he , an
analysis o he G eek mac oeconomy should acknowledge ha , as s a ed by
Alan Blinde (1987, p. 336), "c edi es ic ions, which educe he supply
o c edi o ei he wo king capi al o in es men , a e a majo channel
h ough which inancial policies ha e eal e ec s". Indeed, his ecom-
mended app oach con o ms also wi h ecen heo e ical ad ances, su eyed
by Ge le (1988), and by S igli z (1989), on he implica ions o a ioning,
(which is caused, howe e , by impe ec in o ma ion, a he han pe asi e
egula ion, in c edi and equi ies ma ke s), o he p opaga ion o economic
dis u bances.2
A cha ac e is ic mechanism, ope a i e unde condi ions o pe asi e eg-
ula ion in he inancial sys em, is as ollows: Because o adminis a i ely
ixed in e es a es, se below ma ke clea ing le els,3 he e p e ails excess
demand o bank loans, and (non-p ice) a ioning akes place. The e do no
exis al e na i e, well de eloped, capi al ma ke s. Hence, a leas some com-
ponen s o agg ega e expendi u e, and no ably o in es men , become con-
s ained by he a ailabili y o inance. Unde a ioning, he sho side o he
ma ke ( o loanable unds) de e mines he olume o ansac ions. Con-
sequen ly, a gene al ise in (domes ic) eal in e es a es migh s imula e
capi al o ma ion, (con a y o he p edic ions o neoclassical heo y), p o-
ided i ensu es an inc ease in he esou ces a ailable o banks o onlend-
ing. Acco ding o his in e p e a ion, he pe inen ask o econome ic
esea ch should be o es ablish ha comp ehensi e mone a y agg ega es,
and hus, in u n, c edi and in es men expendi u es, expand, in eal e ms,
in esponse o an upwa d change o nominal bank in e es a es o o a
decele a ion in p ice in la ion. A numbe o such empi ical p ojec s, ca ied
ou in pooled mul i-coun y samples, a e su eyed by F y (1988), Ki chen
(1986), e c.
II. Es ima ion
Table 1 p esen s es ima es o he " educed- o m", compa e Go don
(1984), semiloga i hmic ela ionship be ween each o h ee b oad deposi
money agg ega es, in eal e ms, eal income and he eal in e es a e, in
G eece, o e he pe iod 1961 - 1985. The epo ed eg essions we e selec ed
2 Be nanke and Blinde (1988) ha e adap ed he IS/LM appa a us, (which was,
adi ionally, used o illus a e he consequences o al e na i e assump ions abou
in e es elas ici ies), so as o ep esen his no el app oach in a non- i ial way.
3 An assump ion which is seldom challenged, see Becke man (1988). A any a e,
Blinde and S igli z (1983) a gue ha , e en in he absence o igidi ies in capi al ma -
ke s, small i ms a e bound o ace inancial a ioning cons ain s, especially when he
mone a y s ance o he au ho i ies is con ac iona y.
14 K edi und Kapi al 2/1990
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198 He cules Vo idis
Table 1
The ela ionship o deposi s o income and he deposi a e
(G eece: 1961 - 1985)
OLS
(lq-p) = - 1.260 + 0.372y + 0.009 ( - p) + 0.802 (lq~p) -i
(- 2.057) (2.233) (4.129) (8.758)
R2 = 0.997 S = 0.037 Zx (1,19) = 0.941 Z2 (5,15) = 0.808 Z3 (5,13) = 1.790
( d-p) = - 3.400 + 0.8732/
_
2 + 0.011 ( - p)
_
x + 0.549 ( d - p)
_
i
(- 2.685) (2.866) (2.738) (3.570)
R2 = 0.991 S = 0.064 Zx (1,18) = 0.848 Z2 (5,14) = 0.325 Z3 (5,13) = 2.566
(sd-p) = - 1.907 + 0.454*/ _2 + 0.014 ( - p) + 0.797 (sd - p)
_
i
(- 2.035) (2.049) (4.490) (7.007)
R2 = 0.994 S = 0.055 Zx (1,18) = 0.321 Z2 (5,14) = 0.471 Z3 (5,13) = 1.015
2SLS
(lq-p) = - 2.549 + 0.653 y + 0.012 ( - p) + 0.691 (lq-p) -i
(- 3.301) (3.319) (3.447) (6.734)
5 = 0.036 Z4(l) = 0.246
(sd-p) = - 2.026 + 0.439^-2 + 0.020 ( - p) + 0.838 (sd - p)
_
i
(- 2.060) (1.892) (3.043) (6.783)
S = 0.057 Z4(l) = 0.000
Iq: log o 'liquid liabili ies' i.e., liabili ies o comme cial banks and o he inancial
ins i u ions.
sd
:
log o ime, sa ings and 'o he ' deposi s wi h comme cial banks.
d: log o o al deposi s wi h comme cial banks (i.e., demand, ime, sa ings and
'o he ' deposi s).
y :
log o eal GDP.
p :
log o GDP de la o ; p = dp/d .
: deposi a e.
Da a Sou ce: IMF, In e na ional Financial S a is ics Yea book (IFS), 1986.
S a is ics: S: s anda d e o o es ima e. Z^ modi ied LM es o i s o de se ial
co ela ion app oxima ely dis ibu ed as F wi h deg ees o eedom shown. Z2: The
Chow p edic ion es app oxima ely dis ibu ed as F wi h he indica ed deg ees o
eedom. Z3: F es o he epo ed equa ion e sus a co esponding o e i ing equa-
ion (speci ied in he ex ). Z4: LM es o i s o de se ial co ela ion unde IV es i-
ma ion, dis ibu ed as (1).
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Real Balances o Income, In e es Ra es, and In la ion in G eece 199
by means o a sequen ial specializa ion p ocedu e, inspi ed by. he 'gene al
o simple' econome ic me hodology, see Gilbe (1989). The p ima y con-
ce n, in his exe cise, is o a oid se ial co ela ion, iewed as a gene al diag-
nos ic o equa ion mispeci ica ion. Mo eo e , a simila in e p e a ion can be
gi en o pa ame e s abili y s a is ics, and, in pa icula , o he Chow p e-
dic ion es , as a gued by Pesa an, Smi h and Yeo (1985). Fo each deposi
agg ega e, we began a speci ica ion sea ch by es ima ing an o e i ing equa-
ion, which included he cu en alue and wo lags o each explana o y
a iable, as well as wo lags o he dependen a iable. Ha ing e i ied ha
he esidual, om ha eg ession, was no au oco ela ed, we simpli ied by
sequen ial, da a based, imposi ion o omission es ic ions, un il an equa ion
was de i ed wi h all eg esso s signi ican a leas a 10%, and ee om
se ial co ela ion. (We con i med, by an F es , ha he omission es ic ions
a e join ly accep able; homogenei y wi h espec o p ices had o be
assumed.) As an indica o o esidual au oco ela ion, we employed he
modi ied LM(1) es , i s discussed by Du bin (1970). S abili y was assessed
by he Chow p edic ion es (o pa ame e -cum- a iance equali y), wi h
1980 as he in e media e b eakpoin , in iew o he se e i y o he second oil
shock o middle income coun ies, such as G eece, see B uno and Sachs
(1985, p. 11). These s a is ics we e deployed he e, because o hei supe io
pe o mance in small samples, as demons a ed by he Mon e Ca lo expe i-
men s o Spence (1975) and Ki ie (1986), espec i ely. All h ee OLS
eg essions pass, com o ably, all he es s a 5%. Subsequen ly, we an he
equa ions which con ained cu en alued explana o y a iables by wo
s age leas squa es. (The p ede e mined a iables comp ised a cons an , wo
lags o income, wo lags o he mone a y agg ega e, in eal e ms and in
loga i hms, and wo lags o he eal deposi a e.) The 2SLS es ima es a e
ee om esidual au oco ela ion a 5%, as indica ed by he LM(1) es ,
adap ed o ins umen al a iables, see B eusch and God ey (1981). Com-
pa ison o hese es ima es wi h he OLS esul s shows ha such speci ica-
ions a e p one o simul anei y p oblems. (The co ela ion coe icien be-
ween cu en alued a iables and co esponding ins umen s was ne e
below 0.75.)
All h ee mone a y agg ega es a e signi ican ly, (a leas a 10%), ela ed
o (a single lag o ) eal income, (a single lag o ) he eal in e es a e, and
hei own (once) lagged alue. In expe imen al uns, we also en e ed he
nominal deposi a e, , sepa a ely om he a e o in la ion, p. The ollow-
ing equa ion o ( he log o ) o al comme cial banks deposi s, id, is he bes
such eg ession (y deno es he log o eal income; see Table 1 o de ini ions
o he epo ed s a is ics):
14
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200 He cules Vo idis
( d
—
p) = - 3.261 + 0.851 y _ 2 + 0.014 _! -O.Ollp -! + 0.547 ( d - p) _ x
(- 2.450) (2.703) (1.795) (- 2.670) (3.477)
S = 0.065 R2 = 0.991 Zx (1,17) = 0.889 Z2 (5,13) = 0.288.
The es ic ion, ha he coe icien on he nominal deposi a e equals in
magni ude, bu is opposi e in sign o he coe icien on he in la ion a e, is
easily accep able, i.e., F (1,18) = 0.187. The appea ance o - i migh indi-
ca e ha he (e ec i e) own a e on his mone a y agg ega e ollows he
mo emen s in ou se ies o he deposi a e, wi h some delay. A wide a ie y
o deposi ins umen s, each bea ing a di e en in e es a e, exis s in
G eece. Mos o hese a es a e ese , almos in s ep, by adminis a i e deci-
sion. Hence, we ook he iew ha i would be su icien , o he pu poses o
illus a ion, o use he se ies compiled in he IFS as he " ep esen a i e"
deposi a e. The absence o he con empo aneous alue o income, om he
eg essions o wo o he mone a y agg ega es, migh be a ibu able o
mul icollinea i y. Al e na i ely, he second lag o income, which is signi i-
can , (and simila ly p
_
i in he equa ion abo e), migh be p oxying o he
expec ed, o pe manen , alue o which beha iou migh be, as usual, mo e
closely associa ed, Laidle (1985, p. 119). The long- un income elas ici y is
highe o he agg ega es domina ed by deposi s likely o se e mo e as
asse s, a he han media o exchange. This acco ds wi h he common belie
(ibid., p. 145) ha economies o scale a e mo e p onounced wi h ansac ions
balances. Finally, he in a iable appea ance o he lagged dependen a i-
able, which se es o "soak-up" esidual au oco ela ion, is jus i ied on he
basis o sho - un cos s o adjus men (ibid., p. 108).
III. Conclusions
Ou imp omp u es ima ions ha e e ealed he igo ous nega i e esponse
o eal bank liabili ies o declines in eal deposi a es, in G eece, o e he
pe iod 1961 - 1985. The esea ch p og amme, which was adumb a ed in his
no e, p omises a numbe o in e es ing, and use ul, u he indings. Fo
example, ou esul s indica e ha a, po en ially, d as ic con ac ion in
in es men mus be appended o he s anda d lis o he cos s o a, ce e is
pa ibus, ise in p ice in la ion, compa e Do nbusch and Reynoso (1989). This
can be con i med by he ollowing specimen lexible accele a o equa ion:
I = - 84.989 + 0.544 Y + 0.199 Y -1 + 148.855
{
- 40.579 gq
(- 11.492) (6.992) (2.186) (4.099) (- 2.686)
- 54.990 gq -i ~ 32.358 gq -2 + 0.305 L _2 - 0.228 K -i
(- 4.475) (- 2.827) (3.070) (- 13.143)
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Real Balances o Income, In e es Ra es, and In la ion in G eece 201
R2 = 0.986 Zi (1,15) = 0.826 D.W. = 2.410 Z2 (5,11) = 0.366.
I is eal g oss p i a e in es men , Y is eal GDP, 1 is he nominal loan
a e, L = ACR/q whe e A is he di e ence ope a o , CR is domes ic c edi
claims on he p i a e sec o and q is he implici in es men de la o , gq is
he a e o in la ion o q. The es ima ion pe iod is 1961 - 1985 (annual da a).
The se ies o I and Y we e compiled om he Mon hly S a is ical Bulle in
o he Bank o G eece, while l and CR a e gi en in he IFS. K is he cumula-
i e sum o pas eal ne p i a e in es men .
The equa ion also co obo a es he desc ip ion o he cha ac e is ic en-
dencies in inancial sys ems unde pe asi e egula ion, gi en in he
in oduc ion o his no e: c edi condi ions play a la ge pa in he de e mi-
na ion o in es men while he la e 's con en ional nega i e dependence on
he use cos o capi al ( eal in e es a e) is masked.4
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Becke man, P.: "The Consequences o Upwa d Financial Rep ession", In e na-
ional Re iew o Applied Economics, 2, June 1988, 233 - 249. - Be nanke, B. S. and A.
S. Blinde : " C edi , Money and Agg ega e Demand", Ame ican Economic Re iew, 78,
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u es", Economic Jou nal, 97, June 1987, 327 - 352. - Blinde , A. S. and J. E. S igli z:
"Money, C edi Cons ain s and Economic Ac i i y", Ame ican Economic Re iew, 73,
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4 Needless o men ion, e en wi hin his scheme o hings, he e is always in e es
o empi ical in es iga ions o he ac o s (in e es a e ela i i ies e c.) which go e n
po olio edis ibu ions among al e na i e deposi ins umen s. Fo example,
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bounda y om [bank liabili ies] designa ed as 'mone a y' in o hose designa ed as
'non-mone a y' lea es he economic posi ion and oppo uni ies o deposi holde s
la gely unchanged (and he abo e quali ica ion should be emphasized), i could hen
be a gued ha 'con ol' es ablished in his way, by encou aging possibly qui e small
shi s in he ma u i y holdings o bank deposi s, is somewha cosme ic in i s o e all
economic e ec . Admi edly, shi ing he public's asse holdings ou wa ds along he
ma u i y spec um mus always be ega ded as es ic i e; ne e heless he ex en o
such eal shi may no be measu ed well by concen a ing on any one, o e en a ew,
agg ega es."
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DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.23.2.196 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 12:59:20
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DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.23.2.196 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 12:59:20
Real Balances o Income, In e es Ra es, and In la ion in G eece 203
Zusammen assung
Eine neue Übe p ü ung de Beziehung on Realkasse
zu Einkommen, Zinssä zen und In la ion in G iechenland
Ein Ku zbei ag
De Au sa z deck eine posi i e Rela ion zwischen dem Volumen wei abgeg enz e
mone ä e Agg ega e und dem ealen Einlagenzins au (G iechenland 1961 - 1985).
Au diese Weise kann ein wich ige Zusammenhang in de g iechischen Mak oökono-
mie e olg we den: De la ion und/ode die E höhung s aa lich es gese z e Zins-
sä ze e g öße n die Ressou cen de Banken und e möglichen dahe eine Expansion
k edi bes imm e In es i ionsausgaben.
Summa y
A New Look a he Rela ionship o Real Balances
o Income, In e es Ra es, and In la ion in G eece
—
A No e
A posi i e ela ionship is de ec ed, (G eece 1961 - 1985), be ween he olume o
b oad mone a y agg ega es and he eal deposi a e. Thus, an impo an link can be
aced in he G eek mac oeconomy: De la ion and/o inc eases in adminis e ed in e -
es a es augmen he esou ces o banks, hence enable an expansion o c edi con-
s ained in es men expendi u es.
Résumé
Une nou elle ue de la ela ion en e les balances éelles
e le e enu, les aux d'in é ê e l'in la ion en G èce
Une ema que
On a décou e pou la G èce de 1961 à 1985 une ela ion posi i e en e le olume
d'agg éga s moné ai es géné aux e le aux éel d'in é ê des dépô s. C'es pou quoi,
on peu ace un lien impo an dans la mac oéconomie g ecque: la dé la ion e /ou les
acc oissemen s des aux d'in é ê o iciels augmen en les essou ces bancai es, donc
pe me en une expansion du c édi , o çan les dépenses d'in es issemen s.
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.23.2.196 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 12:59:20