K aeme -Eis, Helmu e al.
A icle — Published Ve sion
En ep eneu ial inance in Eu ope and he Russian wa
agains Uk aine
The Jou nal o Technology T ans e
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Sp inge Na u e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: K aeme -Eis, Helmu e al. (2024) : En ep eneu ial inance in Eu ope and he
Russian wa agains Uk aine, The Jou nal o Technology T ans e , ISSN 1573-7047, Sp inge US, New
Yo k, NY, Vol. 49, Iss. 6, pp. 2273-2305,
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h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s10961-024-10067-9
En ep eneu ial inance inEu ope and heRussian wa
agains Uk aine
Helmu K aeme ‑Eis1· Joe nBlock2,3,4 · An oniaBo sa i1· F ankLang1·
Sol ejLo enzen4· Wal e Diegel2
Accep ed: 22 Janua y 2024 / Published online: 5 Ma ch 2024
© The Au ho (s) 2024
Abs ac
P io esea ch has in es iga ed how he p ices o s ocks and commodi ies as well as
in la ion le els ha e been a ec ed by he Russian wa agains Uk aine. So a , howe e ,
we know li le abou he impac s o he wa on he en ep eneu ial inance sec o . P io
esea ch on he e ec s o unexpec ed exogenous c isis e en s on en ep eneu ial inance
sugges s a s ong nega i e impac on new and ollow-on unding o en ep eneu ial en-
u es. Ou s udy ega ds he Russian wa agains Uk aine as an unexpec ed exogenous c i-
sis e en and explo es i s impac on he en ep eneu ial inance sec o . I goes beyond a
me e sen imen and impac analysis and also explo es he unde lying easons and mech-
anisms as well as po en ial esponse and coping s a egies employed by en ep eneu ial
inance in es o s. Based on wo su eys o Eu opean en u e capi al (VC) and p i a e
equi y (PE) in es o s, we ind ha he wa had a s ong nega i e impac on he wo ypes o
in es o s and hei espec i e unds. Bo h VC and PE in es o s epo mo e isk-a e sion
o limi ed pa ne s (LPs) and LPs lea ing he ma ke as impo an challenges esul ing in
an o e all lowe willingness o LPs o in es . This applies in pa icula o banks, insu ance
unds, and pension unds. On he po olio i m le el, secu ing equi y inancing and main-
aining liquidi y we e conside ed p essing issues. O e all, he si ua ion seems o be mo e
di icul o po olio companies o VC as compa ed o PE in es o s. Fo he o me , he
inancing- and liquidi y- ela ed issues seem o be mo e exis en ial and su i al- h ea ening.
Responding o hese challenges, bo h VC and PE in es o s al e ed hei indus y ocus and
pu mo e emphasis on en ep eneu ial expe ience. Financial in es men selec ion c i e ia
such as inancial alua ion, p o i abili y, and cash- as well as e enue-gene a ing capaci y
also inc eased in impo ance. Again, di e ences be ween VC and PE in es o s exis . Ou
s udy has implica ions o en ep eneu ial inance heo y and p ac ice and concludes wi h
an agenda o esea ch on he impac s o he Russian wa agains Uk aine on en ep e-
neu ial inance.
Keywo ds En ep eneu ial inance· Russian wa agains Uk aine· Ven u e capi al· P i a e
equi y· Exogeneous c isis
JEL Classi ica ion G24· M13· N44
Ex ended au ho in o ma ion a ailable on he las page o he a icle
2274
H.K aeme -Eis e al.
1 In oduc ion
The Russian wa agains Uk aine ha s a ed wi h he in asion o Russia in o Uk aine
on Feb ua y 24 h, 2022, is desc ibed as a u ning poin o he economic and geopoli i-
cal si ua ion in Eu ope and wo ldwide. I does no only impose a e ible human cos bu
has also s ongly a ec ed he (Eu opean) economy. While he long- e m and his o ical
impac s o he wa canno be assessed a his poin , he sho - e m impac s a e al eady
massi e (Aud e sch e al., 2023; Liadze e al., 2023). P io esea ch has in es iga ed how
s ock ma ke s, commodi ies ma ke s, and in la ion le els ha e been a ec ed by he Rus-
sian wa agains Uk aine (De inde e Köseoğlu e al., 2023; Izzeldin e al., 2023; Mau ya
e al., 2023). A numbe o e en s udies show se e e nega i e impac s o he wa on s ock
ma ke s in Eu ope (Ahmed e al., 2023; Kuma i e al., 2023) bu also ou side Eu ope (Bou-
bake e al., 2022; Kamal e al., 2023). Such nega i e impac s do no come as a su p ise as
public inance and in es men s in o public s ocks a e e y mobile and can be ealloca ed a
li le cos when a con lic eme ges. The si ua ion is di e en o p i a e and (in pa icula )
en ep eneu ial inance ma ke s, which a e less in o ma ionally e icien , anspa en and
liquid. The en ep eneu ial inance ma ke is also e y he e ogenous and consis s o di e -
en playe s wi h a wide spec um o mo i a ions, capabili ies and in es men app oaches
(Block e al., 2018).
So a , we know li le abou he impac s o he Russian wa agains Uk aine on he
en ep eneu ial inance sec o . F om p io en ep eneu ial inance esea ch on he e ec s
o unexpec ed exogenous c isis e en s, we expec a s ong nega i e impac on new and
ollow-on unding o en ep eneu ial en u es (Bella i is e al., 2022; Block & Sandne ,
2009; B own & Rocha, 2020; Chandle e al., 2021; Con i e al., 2019). So a , howe e ,
his li e a u e s eam was no able o go deepe and collec e idence on he exac easons
o he unding gap ollowing an unexpec ed c isis e en such as he Russian wa agains
Uk aine. In pa icula , we lack de ailed and p ecise in o ma ion abou he se e i y and
ypes o impac s as well as he unde lying mechanisms. We also lack e idence on po en-
ial esponse and coping s a egies employed by en ep eneu ial inance in es o s and hei
po olio i ms. Ye , a be e unde s anding o hese impac s, mechanisms, and coping s a -
egies is needed o bo h in es o s and policy-make s o o ganize e ec i e suppo o inno-
a i e en u es. Such a suppo is c ucial due o he impo ance o he sec o o inno a-
ion, echnology ans e and en ep eneu ship.
Agains his backg ound and dis inguishing be ween en u e capi al (VC) and p i a e
equi y (PE) i ms, ou empi ical s udy explo es he ollowing in e ela ed esea ch ques-
ions: How did he Russian wa agains Uk aine change he si ua ion o VC and PE in es-
o s in Eu ope? Wha und aising and ope a ional challenges exis and wha do hese
challenges imply o he po olio companies o VC and PE i ms? How did VC and PE
in es o s eac o hese challenges and adap ed hei in es men s a egy and in es men
selec ion c i e ia? Can we obse e di e ences in how he Russian wa agains Uk aine
a ec ed VC and PE i ms and hei po olio companies?
To explo e hese ques ions, we conduc ed wo su eys o VC (N = 443 esponden s) and
PE mid-ma ke (MM) und manage s (N = 224 esponden s), which ook place be ween he
13 h o July and he 29 h o Augus 2022 (VC) and be ween he 14 h o July and he 29 h
o Augus 2022 (PE MM). The und manage s we e asked o assess he ma ke sen imen ,
epo hei challenges associa ed wi h he wa and he mac oeconomic en i onmen as
well as hei eac ions owa ds hese challenges.
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En ep eneu ial inance inEu ope and heRussian wa agains …
The ma ke sen imen expe ienced a s ong decline o bo h in es o g oups. Bo h VC
and PE und manage s expe ience mo e isk-a e sion o LPs and epo LPs lea ing he
ma ke . The inc eased isk a e sion esul s in an o e all lowe willingness o LPs o in es
in VC o PE unds. This applies in pa icula o banks, insu ance unds, and pension unds.
Besides hese und aising issues, he und manage s also expe ience se e al ope a ional
challenges such as he liquidi y needs o po olio companies, inc eased egula ion and
bu eauc acy in und managemen , as well as educed exi and di es men oppo uni ies.
Rega ding hei po olio companies, he und manage s lis secu ing equi y inancing,
main aining liquidi y, ising in e es a es, and in la ion le els as he mos p essing issues.
Apa om hese inancing issues, po olio companies expe ience se e al p oduc - ela ed,
ma ke , and ope a ional challenges esul ing om he wa and he new mac oeconomic
and geopoli ical si ua ion. O e all, he si ua ion seems o be mo e di icul o he po -
olio companies o VC han o hose o PE in es o s. Fo he o me , he inancing- and
liquidi y- ela ed issues seem o be mo e exis en ial, h ea ening i m su i al. In esponse
o hese challenges, bo h VC and PE in es o s adap ed hei in es men s a egies ega d-
ing p e e ed indus ies and placed mo e emphasis on he expe ience o he en ep eneu .
Financial in es men selec ion c i e ia such as inancial alua ion, p o i abili y, and cash-
as well as e enue-gene a ing capaci y, gained impo ance. Again, di e ences be ween VC
and PE in es o s seem o exis . The wa and he associa ed economic and geopoli ical si u-
a ion had a s onge impac on he in es men s a egy o VC han on ha o PE in es o s.
He e ogenei y analyses show ha among in es o s gende di e ences in he e alua ion o
he unexpec ed exogenous c isis exis and ha in es o s om Eas e n Eu ope assess he
und aising si ua ion mo e pessimis ic han hei coun e pa s om he es o Eu ope.
Ou s udy con ibu es o ou a eas o en ep eneu ial inance and en ep eneu ship
esea ch. The i s con ibu ion is o esea ch on he e ec s o unexpec ed exogenous c isis
e en s on en ep eneu ial inance (Alpe o ych e al., 2015; Bella i is e al., 2022; Block &
Sandne , 2009; B own & Rocha, 2020; Chandle e al., 2021; Con i e al., 2019; de V ies &
Block, 2011). As desc ibed abo e, p io esea ch has al eady looked a he e ec s o di e -
en ypes o unexpec ed exogenous c ises on en ep eneu ial inance. Howe e , he cu en
c isis is di e en . Fi s , he eason o he c isis does no lie in he inancial sys em i sel
bu is he esul o wa and i s geopoli ical and mac oeconomic consequences. Second, he
c isis (e en ) does no equally a ec all pa s o he wo ld bu has a pa icula ly s ong
impac in Eu ope. Ou s udy goes beyond a me e sen imen and impac analysis and also
explo es he unde lying easons and mechanisms as well as po en ial esponse and cop-
ing s a egies employed by en ep eneu ial inance in es o s. This is no el o he li e a u e.
He e ogenei y analyses u he how ha among in es o s gende di e ences in he e alua-
ion o he unexpec ed exogenous c isis exis , which connec s ou s udy o esea ch on he
impac s emale ep esen a ion in VC i ms (Xu e al., 2024). The second con ibu ion o
ou s udy is o he li e a u e on he ole o LPs in he VC and PE indus y (Ba nes & Men-
zies, 2005; G oh & Liech ens ein, 2011) and how hey eac in a si ua ion o a geopoli ical
and mac oeconomic c isis. The esul s o ou s udy show ha no all LPs show he same
(nega i e) eac ion. The eac ion was pa icula ly s ong wi h banks, insu ance companies,
and o he inancial ins i u ions bu was less s ong wi h go e nmen unds. This inding
is in line wi h he idea ha (in imes o c isis) public money and go e nmen al VC unds
a e impo an playe s in he ma ke o en ep eneu ial inance (Alpe o ych e al., 2015;
Colombo e al., 2016; Link e al., 2021). The hi d con ibu ion is o he li e a u e on he
in es men selec ion c i e ia o VC and PE in es o s (Block e al., 2019, 2022; Gompe s
e al., 2020; Minola e al., 2017; Pe y e al., 2023). While his li e a u e s eam is al eady
well-de eloped and a good unde s anding exis s o he impo ance o pa icula in es men
2276
H.K aeme -Eis e al.
selec ion c i e ia o VC and PE in es o s, li le is known abou he impo ance o hese
c i e ia in a si ua ion o high geopoli ical and mac oeconomic unce ain y. Ou s udy con-
ibu es o closing his gap and shows how he impo ance o ce ain in es men selec ion
c i e ia o VC and PE in es o s change in a si ua ion o a geopoli ical and mac oeconomic
c isis. In pa icula , inancial c i e ia and en ep eneu ial expe ience become mo e impo -
an . The ou h con ibu ion is o he li e a u e on en ep eneu ship in con lic coun ies
(B ück e al., 2013; Mo i z e al., 2023; Naudé e al., 2023). Judging om he answe s o
hose in es o s wi h an in es men ocus in Eas e n Eu ope, i seems ha he (sho - e m
and immedia e) impac o he wa on en ep eneu ship is clea ly nega i e. This inding is in
line wi h he esul s o Naudé e al. (2023) showing a nega i e ela ionship be ween s a e-
based con lic and p oduc i e en ep eneu ship.
The emainde o he s udy is o ganized as ollows: Sec .2 summa izes backg ound and
ela ed li e a u e. Sec ion3 p esen s he samples, ques ionnai es, and summa y s a is ics.
Sec ions4 and 5 epo he ma ke sen imen o he VC and PE in es o s and he conc e e
challenges associa ed wi h he Russian wa agains Uk aine. Sec ion6 shows he eac ions
o he VC and PE in es o s owa d hese challenges. Sec ion7 conduc s he e ogenei y anal-
yses spli ing he sample by geog aphy and gende . Sec ion8 discusses ou esul s while
Sec .9 p esen s a de ailed agenda o u he esea ch on he impac o he Russian wa
agains Uk aine on en ep eneu ial inance.
2 Backg ound and ela ed li e a u e
This sec ion p o ides a summa y o backg ound and ela ed li e a u e. I s a s wi h an
o e iew o p io esea ch on he impac o unexpec ed exogenous c isis e en s on en e-
p eneu ial inance. Nex , he e is a b ie discussion on he cha ac e is ics o VC and PE
in es o s and how hey may lead o di e en eac ions owa ds such c isis e en s. The sec-
ion closes wi h a discussion o en ep eneu ial oppo uni ies in (pos -) con lic coun ies
and he ole o en ep eneu ial inance.
2.1 (Un)expec ed exogenous c isis e en s anden ep eneu ial inance
A numbe o s udies ha e analyzed he ela ionship be ween expec ed exogenous, mo e
long- e m c isis si ua ions and en ep eneu ial inance. A good example o such a c isis
would be he clima e c isis and i s policy esponses. A li e a u e s eam has eme ged abou
VC in es men s in o clean ech (Bü e & Wüs enhagen, 2009; C oce & Bianchini, 2022;
Cumming e al., 2016). Wi hin his li e a u e s eam he s udy by Ho man and Huisman
(2012) has in es iga ed how he 2008–2009 inancial c isis changed he popula i y o en i-
onmen al policies and he p e e ence o VC in es o s o in es in clean ech. They ound
ha he inancial c isis dec eased he popula i y o ma ke -pull policies such as subsidies
and ade ela ed schemes (e.g., CO2 emissions and g een ce i ica es ading).
Ou s udy is ela ed o he s udy by Ho man and Huisman (2012) as i connec s o
p io esea ch on he e ec s o unexpec ed exogenous c isis e en s on en ep eneu -
ial inance. In his li e a u e s eam, Block and Sandne (2009) analyzed he e ec o
he 2008–2009 global inancial c isis on he VC ma ke . They ound ha he inancial
c isis led o a 20% dec ease in he a e age amoun o unds aised pe unding ound.
The e ec , howe e , could only be de ec ed in la e unding ounds. Adding o his, De
V ies and Block (2011) show ha he inancial c isis (bu also he do -com c isis) was
2277
En ep eneu ial inance inEu ope and heRussian wa agains …
associa ed wi h a lowe endency o co-in es and led o a lowe o e all size o he syn-
dica es. Con i e al. (2019) epo ha VCs in he global inancial c isis, in pa icula he
mo e-expe ienced ones, changed hei in es men s a egy and alloca ed mo e esou ces
o hei co e in es men sec o s. Using Belgium da a om he do -com c isis, Alpe -
o ych e al. (2015) show ha VC beha io in a c isis di e s o p i a e e sus go e n-
men al VC i ms. While p i a e VC unds educed hei in es men s, go e nmen al VC
unds ac ed coun e cyclically and inc eased hei in es men s. Focusing on he COVID-
19 pandemic, Bella i is e al. (2022) show ha he pandemic was associa ed wi h a sig-
ni ican decline in VC in es men s ac oss he wo ld, pa icula ly ega ding ea ly-s age
en u es. None heless, C isan i e al. (2021) epo ha despi e he measu able ha m o
he ini ial 2020 lockdowns, he VC indus y did no su e om a case o long COVID;
and ha by he end o 2020, VC i ms unde s ic lockdown had caugh up in e ms o
ac i i y a e (bo h in deals and olumes) wi h hei no-lockdown benchma k. En ep e-
neu ial en u es in hei ea ly s ages a e o en inanced by business angels. Mason and
Ha ison (2015) ha e analyzed he in es men beha io o UK business angels (BAs)
in he 2008–2009 global inancial c isis. They ind ha he in es men ac i i y o BAs
has inc eased in he numbe o in es men s bu dec eased in he amoun in es ed. The
signi icance o co-in es men has inc eased, bo h be ween business angels and be ween
business angels and in es o ypes. Using i m-le el da a a e he 2008–2009 global
inancial c isis, Casey and O’Toole (2014) show ha bank-lending cons ained small
i ms subs i u e bank loans o some ex en wi h ade c edi , in o mal lending, and loans
om o he companies. Ma ke inancing h ough issued deb o equi y did no inc ease.
The addi ional use o ade c edi was ound o be highe o i ms owned by VCs o
BAs. Rela ed o his, Be ge e al. (2023) show in a b oad in e na ional s udy based
on da a om mo e han 18.000 loans ha inancial c ises yield bo h p ice and quan-
i y a ioning o c edi wo hy bo owe s. Compa ing publicly-lis ed and p i a ely-held
i ms, hey ind ha publicly-lis ed i ms o en ace p ice a ioning while p i a ely-held
i ms o en ace quan i y- a ioning. In a ecen s udy, Bal as e al. (2022) show ha
al e na i e inance (comp ising PE, VC, and c owd unding) is an impo an sou ce o
unding o i ms hi by a na u al disas e . The use o al e na i e inance is ound o
inc ease a e he occu ence o a na u al disas e — he e ec being s onge o la ge
and olde i ms as well as i ms wi h a highe eliance on physical asse s.
2.2 Cha ac e is ics o VC e susPE in es o s
Ou s udy compa es he immedia e impac o he Russian wa agains Uk aine on VCs
and PEs as wo impo an en ep eneu ial inance in es o s. E en hough he wo in es-
o ypes sha e many simila i ies in hei in es men model and in es men app oach,
some impo an di e ences exis ha could lead o di e en eac ions o unexpec ed
exogenous c isis e en s. While VC in es o s mos ly in es in young and small i ms
ha a e inno a i e and ha e high-g ow h po en ial, PE in es o s end o in es in la ge ,
mo e es ablished i ms wi h a s able cash- low and a p o en business model. The in es -
men sizes and equi y sha es o PE in es o s a e la ge han hose o VC in es o s. Ye ,
he o e all numbe o deals is ypically highe o VCs as compa ed o PEs and also he
likelihood o syndica e is highe . Wi h ega d o simila i ies, bo h VC and PE in es o s
hold hei po olio companies o a limi ed ime pe iod and wan o exi hei in es -
men s a e some yea s p e e ably h ough ade sales o IPOs. They also d aw on a
2278
H.K aeme -Eis e al.
simila pool o limi ed pa ne s (LPs) such as banks, insu ance unds, amily o ices,
ounda ions, and go e nmen unds.
2.3 En ep eneu ial oppo uni ies in(pos ‑) con lic coun ies
The pape also ela es o he g owing li e a u e on en ep eneu ship in (pos -) con lic
coun ies (B ück e al., 2013; Mo i z e al., 2023; Naudé e al., 2023). Du ing he ime
o he con lic , he con lic is likely o educe en ep eneu ial oppo uni ies and damage
he ins i u ions ha a e needed o a ac en ep eneu ial inance and o he esou ces. In a
ecen s udy, Naudé e al. (2023) show ha he e is a nega i e ela ionship be ween s a e-
based con lic and p oduc i e en ep eneu ship exploi ing en ep eneu ial oppo uni ies.
Ye , he si ua ion can change in pos -con lic imes, whe e he e is a s ong need o eplace
o epai damaged asse s. The con lic may also lead o a (pe manen ) inc ease in mili a y
expenses. In such a si ua ion, oppo uni ies o en ep eneu s and en ep eneu ial inance
in es o s eme ge. Acco dingly, he pos -wa Uk aine is desc ibed by some o “become one
o he bes in he wo ld in e ms o oppo uni ies o in es o s” (The Epoch Times, 2023).
I espec i e o whe he such a si ua ion will e en ually occu , la ge in es men companies
such as BlackRock a e al eady secu ing con ac s o ebuild Uk aine a e he wa . P io
esea ch shows ha public (en ep eneu ship) policy oge he wi h a s able ins i u ional
en i onmen can a ac badly needed capi al o inance pos -con lic g ow h (His ich e al.,
2016). Using da a om Koso o, K asniqi and B anch (2020) show ha in he a e ma h o
he Koso o wa , he numbe o s a -ups has inc eased apidly. Ye , many o hese newly
ounded i ms s ayed small which he au ho s a ibu e o co up ion and adminis a i e
bu dens ha hinde hese i ms om g owing. The e ec was opposi e o la ge and es ab-
lished i ms which we e o c ea e links wi h public o icials o manage he ins i u ional
de iciencies o a pos -con lic coun y.
3 Da a andme hod
3.1 Samples andsumma y s a is ics
The da ase s used in his s udy a e de i ed om wo ex ensi e pan-Eu opean su eys o
PE and VC und manage s/gene al pa ne s (GPs); namely he ‘2022 P i a e Equi y Mid-
Ma ke Su ey’ (PE MM Su ey) and he ‘2022 Ven u e Capi al Su ey’ (VC Su ey),
conduc ed by he Eu opean In es men Fund (EIF). To he bes o ou knowledge, he wo
su eys combined ep esen he la ges su ey o und manage s/GPs in Eu ope o e all, bu
also dedica ed o he opic o he Russian wa agains Uk aine and he esul ing challenges.
Bo h su eys we e conduc ed online, and anonymized esponses we e ecei ed in July and
Augus 2022.
While he PE MM and VC su eys a ge di e en g oups o ecipien s, hey sha e a
simila ques ionnai e design and simila ques ions. Each su ey pa icipan was asked a
o al o up o 73 ques ions. These included single-choice, mul iple-choice, and anking
ques ions, as well as ee- ex inpu s. Fo ou s udy, we p ima ily d aw on he su ey
ques ions ocusing on how he Russian agg ession agains Uk aine and he associa ed
geopoli ical and mac oeconomic implica ions ha e a ec ed en ep eneu ial inance
in es o s in Eu ope. These ques ions conce ned changes in in es men s a egy and
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En ep eneu ial inance inEu ope and heRussian wa agains …
in es men selec ion c i e ia as well as in o ma ion abou und aising and ope a ional
issues on bo h und and po olio company le els. In addi ion, he da ase includes ich
in o ma ion on he demog aphics o he espec i e PE and VC und manage s, as well
as hei espec i e PE/VC i ms. Fo mo e in o ma ion on bo h su eys, please e e o
K aeme -Eis e al. (2022a, 2022b).
The su eys o iginally a ge ed 3308 PE and 4866 VC und manage s, ep esen -
ing 1615 dis inc PE and 2461 dis inc VC i ms, espec i ely. The lis o PE and VC
i ms, as well as he de ails o ele an con ac s wi hin each i m, we e ob ained om
Pi chbook. The VC sample was also en iched by con ac s p o ided by In es Eu ope
( o me ly Eu opean Ven u e Capi al Associa ion, EVCA) and he EIF.
The inal da ase used o he analyses con ains comple ed esponses om 224 PE
und manage s ( ep esen ing 188 dis inc PE i ms), and 443 VC und manage s ( om
362 VC i ms). Response a es (a he und manage le el) we e he e o e 6.8% (PE
su ey) and 9.1% (VC su ey). These esponse a es a e compa able o o he email-
dis ibu ed academic su eys add essed o in es o s (e.g., Amel-Zadeh & Se a eim,
2018; Block e al., 2019). The as majo i y o esponden s hold he posi ion o CEO
o managing o gene al pa ne in hei espec i e i ms. This implies ha while he
analyses o his s udy a e based on s a ed p e e ences, he da a and esponses collec ed
ep esen he iews o senio decision-make s.
Tables8, 9, 10 and 11 in he appendix epo summa y s a is ics abou he su ey
esponden s. The as majo i y o esponden s—87% (VC su ey) o 84% (PE su -
ey)—we e male; mos esponden s we e be ween 45 and 55yea s old, and hei mean
expe ience as und manage s was 13yea s (VC su ey) o 18yea s (PE su ey). The
asse s unde managemen a ied subs an ially: 22% o VC in es o s (11% o PE in es-
o s) had less han 50 million Eu os; 9% o VC in es o s (15% o PE in es o s) had
mo e han 1 billion. The median i m age was 11 (VC) and 14yea s (PE), espec i ely,
a he ime he su ey was conduc ed. The majo i y o VC in es o s in es ed in seed
(33%) o ea ly-s age en u es (35%), while mos PE in es o s p o ided unding o
en u e g ow h (32%) o buyou si ua ions (63%).
The PE and VC in es o s con ac ed we e p edominan ly headqua e ed in he 27 EU
coun ies, bu also in o he coun ies, such as No way, Swi ze land, Tu key, Is ael, he
Uni ed Kingdom, and he USA. The mos p ominen loca ions o VC in es o s we e
Ge many (13%), he UK (10%), he Ne he lands (10%), F ance (8%), and Spain (7%).
Fo he headqua e s o he PE in es o s, he mos p ominen loca ions we e F ance
(15%), I aly (12%), Ge many (9%), he UK (9%), he Ne he lands (7%), and Spain
(7%).Wi h ega d o he indus y o sec o ocus, VC in es o s we e mainly ac i e in
In o ma ion and Communica ions Technologies (ICT) (31%), Bio ech/Heal hca e
(20%), and Ene gy/En i onmen (12%); PE in es o s had a ocus on Business Se ices
(26%) and Business P oduc s (18%), as well as on Bio ech/Heal hca e (13%). A u he
19% (8%) o he PE (VC) in es o s epo ed ha ing no clea sec o ocus.
3.2 Ques ionnai es, scales andi ems
We did no disco e any p io ques ionnai e s udy on he impac o exogenous c isis
e en s on en ep eneu ial inance and hence we had o de elop ou own ques ionnai es,
scales, and i ems. We did so based on ou own expe ience as esea che s and based
on in ensi e con e sa ions wi h en ep eneu ial inance in es o s and hei indus y
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H.K aeme -Eis e al.
associa ions. The exac o mula ions o he ques ions and he co esponding scales and
i ems a e p o ided in he espec i e no es o he esul s ables.
4 Ma ke sen imen s o VC andPE in es o s
The epo s by K aeme -Eis e al. (2022a, 2022b) desc ibe he ma ke sen imen s o he
und aising en i onmen o VC and PE in es o s o e ime. The VC and PE und manage s
we e asked abou hei expec a ions o he und aising en i onmen . The ques ion posed
o hem was “O e he nex 12mon hs, how do you expec he und aising en i onmen
o de elop?”. The answe op ions we e ‘sligh ly/s ongly de e io a e’, ‘s ay he same’, and
‘sligh ly/s ongly imp o e’. We calcula e he pe cen ages in each o he h ee ca ego ies as
well as he ne balance. A nega i e ne balance means ha he nega i e answe ca ego ies
we e epo ed mo e equen ly han he posi i e ca ego ies.
The Russian in asion o Uk aine and he ela ed geopoli ical and mac oeconomic de el-
opmen s hi he Eu opean VC and PE ma ke s a an excep ional ime. Following a slump
in he Eu opean VC and PE ma ke ac i i y du ing he COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (ne
balance VC: − 18%; ne balance PE: − 60%), he ma ke sen imen had jus eco e ed in
2021 (ne balance VC: 24%; ne balance PE: 30%). Fund aising and in es men s we e a
eco d highs, d i en o a la ge ex en by he s ong g ow h in a ious sec o s (e.g., he digi-
al economy, bu also he heal h and bio ech sec o s) du ing he pandemic and addi ional
go e nmen unds alloca ed o Eu opean VC ma ke s (OECD, 2023).
This posi i e e olu ion u ned a ound in 2022 (ne balance VC: − 43%; ne balance PE:
− 50%). Despi e a s ill ela i ely obus in es men and und aising ac i i y du ing he i s
pa o he yea (In es Eu ope, 2022), he ma ke sen imen ha VC and PE und manag-
e s exp essed in he su eys declined subs an ially, indica ing signi ican headwinds o he
nea u u e. While he si ua ion in 2022 was s ill assessed o be posi i e in many aspec s o
he VC/PE ac i i y, in pa icula he expec a ions de e io a ed s ongly.
5 Challenges o VC andPE in es o s
5.1 Fund aising challenges o VC andPE in es o s
5.1.1 O e all pic u e
Table1 displays he und aising p oblems o VC and PE in es o s associa ed wi h he Rus-
sian wa agains Uk aine and he changes in he mac oeconomic and geopoli ical en i on-
men . The und manage s we e asked abou he ex en o which ce ain i ems in a selec ed
lis o challenges cons i u e a und aising p oblem o hei und. Fo each challenge, we
calcula ed he numbe and pe cen age o esponden s conside ing he espec i e challenge
as ei he ‘no p oblem a all’, ‘mino p oblem’, ‘impo an p oblem’, o ‘exis en ial p ob-
lem’. Column I (II) shows he answe s o he VC in es o s (PE in es o s) and Column III
epo s he esul s o a es o equali y o p opo ions, including he associa ed measu e o
s a is ical signi icance, he p alue.
The o e all ex en o und aising challenges seems highe o VC han PE in es o s.
The anking o he op challenges, howe e , seems o be simila . Bo h VC and PE in es o s
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En ep eneu ial inance inEu ope and heRussian wa agains …
challenges o he po olio companies o VC in es o s a e ‘cus ome acquisi ion’ (51%)
and ‘s ong p oduc ma ke compe i ion’ (28%), while he wo mos impo an challenges
o he po olio companies o PE in es o s a e ‘demand shi s o cus ome s’ (25%) and
‘cus ome acquisi ion and e en ion’ (22%). The di e ences be ween he wo in es o
g oups a e s a is ically signi ican a he 1%-le el wi h six challenges.
5.3.3 Ope a ional challenges o VC andPE po olio companies
The e idence ega ding he ope a ional challenges looks a bi di e en . While wi h
inancing- and ma ke - ela ed challenges, VC in es o s we e mo e conce ned abou hei
po olio companies han PE in es o s, he opposi e was ue o he ope a ional chal-
lenges. While bo h VC and PE in es o s conside ed he o e all impo ance o ope a-
ional challenges o be high o hei po olio companies, he epo ed pe cen ages we e
highe o PE in es o s in six ou o he eigh ope a ional issues men ioned (p < 0.01).
The op h ee ope a ional challenges o he po olio companies o VC in es o s we e
‘sho age o skilled labo ’ (72%), ‘ ising labo cos s’ (65%), and ‘supply chain dis up-
ions’ (57%). The espec i e lis o po olio companies o PE in es o s was ‘ ising
ene gy cos s’ (81%), ‘ ising labo cos s’ (79%), and ‘supply chain dis up ions’ (75%).
Compa ed o VC in es o s, wice as many PE in es o s iden i y ‘ ising ene gy cos s’
as an impo an o e en su i al- h ea ening p oblem o hei in es ees. Again, hese
di e ences be ween PE and VC in es o s can be explained by he ac ha PE po olio
i ms a e ypically olde and mo e es ablished and he e o e mo e likely o ha e ope a-
ions al eady in place.
6 Reac ions o VC andPE in es o s
6.1 Changes inin es men s a egies
Table5 p o ides e idence o he changes in he in es men s a egies o VC and PE
in es o s as a eac ion o he Russian wa agains Uk aine and he changes in he mac-
oeconomic and geopoli ical en i onmen . The su ey esponden s indica ed ha hey
ha e changed hei in es men s a egy, pa icula ly conce ning he ‘ equi ed expe i-
ence o he en ep eneu ’ and hei ‘p e e ed sec o o indus y’. Ele en pe cen o PE
in es o s epo ed ha hey changed hei geog aphical ocus. O e all, he changes we e
mo e p onounced o PE han o VC in es o s. Signi ican di e ences be ween he wo
in es o ypes can be obse ed o ‘p e e ed sec o o indus y’ (p < 0.01) and ‘p e-
e ed en u e s age/in es men s age’ (p < 0.05).
6.2 Changes in heimpo ance o speci ic in es men selec ion c i e ia
Table12 in he appendix summa izes he impo ance o a ious in es men selec ion
c i e ia o bo h in es o ypes. Six y-nine pe cen o VC in es o s (54% o PE in es-
o s) a e he ‘managemen eam’ as one o hei op h ee in es men selec ion c i e ia.
Among VC in es o s, ‘scalabili y o he business’ and ‘ echnology’ ank second and
hi d. Fo PE in es o s, ‘p o i abili y’ and ‘business model’ ank second and hi d.
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H.K aeme -Eis e al.
Table 5 Ex en o change in he in es men s a egies o VC and PE in es o s
This able displays he ex en o change in he in es men s a egies o VC and PE in es o s. The ques ion asked was: “To wha ex en does he cu en geopoli ical si ua ion
and mac oeconomic en i onmen change you in es men s a egy ega ding…?”. We epo he esul s sepa a ely o VC and PE in es o s (Column I o II, espec i ely) and
display he pe cen ages o esponden s in he espec i e ca ego ies. Column III displays he esul s o a s a is ical es o equali y o means be ween he wo ypes o in es o s
(using he nume ical alues behind he answe ca ego ies)
Response op ions I II III
VC in es o s (N = 443) PE in es o s (N = 224) Tes o equal-
i y o means
No a all (%) Some-wha (%) To a la ge
ex en
(%)
I do no know/
p e e no o say
(%)
No a all (%) Some-wha (%) To a la ge
ex en
(%)
I do no know/
p e e no o say
(%)
p alue
Requi ed expe ience o
en ep eneu s
46.5 39.3 11.7 2.5 38.8 48.7 11.6 0.9 0.101
P e e ed sec o o indus y 59.6 30.0 7.7 2.7 30.4 46.9 21.9 0.9 0.000
P e e ed geog aphical ocus 65.5 25.5 6.1 2.9 66.5 21.4 11.2 0.9 0.241
P e e ed en u e s age/
in es men s age
65.0 27.8 4.7 2.5 74.6 19.6 4.0 1.8 0.040
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Table6 shows he inc ease in he impo ance o a ious in es men selec ion c i e ia
o VC and PE in es o s as a eac ion o he Russian wa agains Uk aine. The ques-
ion posed o he pa icipan s o he su ey was “Conside ing he cu en geopoli ical
si ua ion and mac oeconomic en i onmen , has he impo ance o he espec i e in es -
men selec ion c i e ia changed?”. The esponden s a ed o each c i e ion whe he he
impo ance became ‘less impo an ’, ‘mo e impo an ’, o ‘didn’ change’. In he ollow-
ing, we epo he esul s o he ‘mo e impo an ’ esponse op ion.
The op i e c i e ia gaining impo ance o VC in es o s we e ‘ alua ion and deal
e ms’ (62%), ‘cash-gene a ing capaci y’ (41%), ‘p o i abili y/p o i abili y po en ial’
(38%), ‘exi po en ial’ (37%), and ‘ e enue-gene a ing capaci y’ (35%). In compa ison,
he co esponding anking o PE in es o s is as ollows: ‘ alua ion and deal e ms’
Table 6 Inc ease in he impo ance o speci ic in es men selec ion c i e ia
The able displays he in es men selec ion c i e ia wi h he highes inc ease in impo ance o VC and PE
in es o s. The ques ion asked was: “Conside ing he cu en geopoli ical si ua ion and mac oeconomic
en i onmen , has he impo ance o he espec i e in es men selec ion c i e ia changed?”. We epo he
esul s sepa a ely o VC and PE in es o s (Column I o II, espec i ely). Column III epo s he di e ences
in pe cen ages and he esul s o a s a is ical es o equali y o p opo ions be ween he wo ypes o in es-
o s
a The in es men selec ion c i e ion ‘ en u e s age’ (‘ma ke leade ship’) was only included in he VC su -
ey (PE su ey)
In es men selec ion c i e ia I II III
VC in es o s
(N = 443)
PE in es o s
(N = 224)
Tes o equali y o
p opo ions
Di e ence p alue
Valua ion and deal e ms 62.3% 48.7% 13.6% 0.007
Cash-gene a ing capaci y 41.0% 42.9% − 1.9% 0.744
P o i abili y/p o i abili y po en ial 37.9% 33.9% 4.0% 0.312
Exi po en ial 36.8% 29.5% 7.3% 0.060
Re enue-gene a ing capaci y 34.8% 28.1% 6.7% 0.084
Managemen eam 27.5% 30.4% − 2.9% 0.447
Business model 25.3% 29.5% − 4.2% 0.249
ESG conside a ions 23.5% 43.8% − 20.3% 0.000
Geog aphical loca ion o a ge company 21.7% 27.7% − 6.0% 0.085
P oduc ´s alue p oposi ion 19.4% 28.1% − 8.7% 0.011
Indus y 16.5% 44.6% − 28.1% 0.000
Scalabili y o he business 16.3% 21.9% − 5.6% 0.075
Pas pe o mance/ ack eco d 16.0% 14.3% 1.7% 0.557
Ou abili y o add alue 14.2% 23.7% − 9.5% 0.002
Di e si y and inclusion conside a ions 14.2% 16.5% − 2.3% 0.433
To al size o he add essable ma ke 11.5% 13.4% − 1.9% 0.483
Technology 10.8% 26.3% − 15.5% 0.000
Ven u e s agea10.2% – – –
Ma ke leade shipa– 17.9% – –
S a egic i in in es men po olio 10.2% 12.1% − 1.9% 0.457
Re e al by o he GPs/in es o s 8.1% 2.7% 5.4% 0.006
O he s 15.7% 16.5% − 0.8% 0.869
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H.K aeme -Eis e al.
(49%), ‘indus y’ (45%), ‘ESG-conside a ions’ (44%), ‘cash-gene a ing capaci y’ (43%),
and ‘p o i abili y/p o i abili y po en ial’ (34%).
While VC and PE in es o s had simila pe cep ions ega ding some c i e ia (e.g., ‘cash-
gene a ing capaci y’, and ‘p o i abili y/p o i abili y po en ial’), we obse ed some ema k-
able di e ences in o he c i e ia. Fo example, he ‘indus y’ (16% o VC s. 45% o PE,
p < 0.01), ‘ESG conside a ions’ (23% o VC s. 44% o PE, p < 0.01), and ‘ echnology’
(11% o VC s. 26% o PE, p < 0.01) became compa a i ely mo e impo an as in es -
men selec ion c i e ia o PE in es o s han o VC in es o s. In u n, he inc emen al
impo ance a ached o ‘ alua ion and deal e ms’ (62% o VC s. 49% o PE, p < 0.01)
and ‘ e enue-gene a ing capaci y’ (35% o VC s. 28% o PE, p < 0.10) was highe o
VC han o PE in es o s.
7 He e ogenei y analyses
We conduc ed wo se s o he e ogenei y analyses. The i s se conce ns gende spli s
compa ing he answe s o male (VC: N = 385; PE: N = 189) and emale (VC: N = 58; PE:
N = 33) in es o s. P io esea ch sugges s ha gende di e ences in in es men p e e ences
and pe o mance migh in ac exis (Cojoianu e al., 2023; Gompe s e al., 2022). We ind
ha while emale VC in es o s end o be mo e pessimis ic han male in es o s ega ding
ope a ional challenges o po olio companies, hey a e mo e op imis ic in hei assessmen
o LP’s willingness o in es . We also obse ed ha emale VCs ended o ha e a mo e
posi i e sen imen compa ed o hei male coun e pa s on a ange o ma ke sen imen
indica o s such as he de elopmen o he und aising en i onmen and access o inance
o hei po olio companies. The si ua ion is di e en o PE in es o s, whe e emale
in es o s a e o e all mo e pessimis ic han male in es o s ega ding und aising. The sec-
ond se o he e ogenei y analyses compa es subsamples o in es o s om Eas e n Eu ope1
(VC: N = 27; PE: N = 17) e sus he es o Eu ope (VC: N = 402; PE: N = 207). VC in es-
o s om Eas e n Eu ope s ess o a highe ex en und aising challenges on he und le el
and ope a ional p oblems on he po olio i m le el. Simila ly, PE in es o s om Eas e n
Eu ope epo o a s onge ex en und aising challenges, pa icula ly wi h banks as LPs.
Su p isingly, hey we e mo e op imis ic han in es o s om he es o Eu ope ega ding
und aising om go e nmen unds.
8 Discussion
8.1 Summa y o main esul s
The Russian wa agains Uk aine and he associa ed change in he mac oeconomic en i-
onmen and geopoli ical si ua ion a ec ed he Eu opean en ep eneu ial inance sec o .
Using in o ma ion om wo su eys conduc ed wi h VC and PE und manage s, ou s udy
shows how. The pe cep ions o he und aising en i onmen we e wo se han du ing he
COVID-19 c isis. LPs became mo e isk-a e se and less willing o in es . Apa om hese
1 We collec ed answe s om in es o s wi h headqua e s in Poland, Bulga ia, Czechia, Romania, Slo akia,
and Uk aine.
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En ep eneu ial inance inEu ope and heRussian wa agains …
Table 7 Summa y o main indings
Findings
In es o le el
Ma ke sen imen S ong decline o bo h VC and PE compa ed o p e ious yea s;
while he si ua ion in 2022 was s ill assessed o be posi i e in
many aspec s, in pa icula he expec a ions de e io a ed s ongly
Fund aising challenges Bo h in es o ypes epo mo e isk-a e sion o LPs and LPs
lea ing he ma ke as impo an challenges esul ing in an o e all
lowe willingness o LPs o in es
LPs’ willingness o in es Pa icula ly banks, insu ance unds, and pension unds ha e a
lowe willingness o in es
Ope a ional challenges Main ope a ional challenges a e liquidi y needs o po olio com-
panies, inc eased egula ion and, bu eauc acy in und manage-
men , and educed exi and di es men oppo uni ies
Change in in es men s a egy In es men s a egy is changed pa icula ly conce ning he
‘ equi ed expe ience o he en ep eneu ’, he ‘p e e ed sec o
o indus y’, and he ‘geog aphical ocus’. O e all, he changes
we e mo e p onounced o PE han o VC in es o s
Change in in es men selec ion c i e ia Financial in es men selec ion c i e ia such as inancial alua ion,
p o i abili y, and cash- as well as e enue-gene a ing capac-
i y, inc eased in impo ance. Some signi ican di e ences exis
di e ences be ween VC and PE in es o s (e.g., wi h ega d o
indus y, ESG, and echnology as c i e ia)
Po olio company le el
Financing- ela ed challenges Secu ing equi y inancing, main aining liquidi y, ising in e es
a es, and in la ion le els we e conside ed he mos p essing
inancing- ela ed challenges o he po olio companies. The
o e all le el o conce n was highe wi h VC as compa ed o PE
in es o s
Ma ke - ela ed challenges The mos impo an challenges o he po olio companies o
VC in es o s we e ‘cus ome acquisi ion’ and ‘s ong p oduc
ma ke compe i ion’, while he wo mos impo an challenges
o he po olio companies o PE in es o s a e ‘demand shi s
o cus ome s’ and ‘cus ome acquisi ion and e en ion’. The
o e all le el o conce n was highe wi h VC as compa ed o PE
in es o s
Ope a ional challenges The op h ee ope a ional challenges o he po olio companies o
VC in es o s we e ‘sho age o skilled labo ’, ‘ ising labo cos s’,
and ‘supply chain dis up ions’. The espec i e lis o po olio
companies o PE in es o s was ‘ ising ene gy cos s’, ‘ ising
labo cos s’, and ‘supply chain dis up ions’. The o e all le el o
conce n was highe wi h PE as compa ed o VC in es o s
He e ogenei y analyses
Sample spli by gende Female VC in es o s we e mo e pessimis ic han male in es o s
ega ding ope a ional challenges o po olio companies; ye ,
hey we e mo e op imis ic in hei assessmen o LP’s willing-
ness o in es . Wi h PE in es o s, emale in es o s we e mo e
pessimis ic han male in es o s ega ding und aising
Sample spli by geog aphy In es o s om Eas e n Eu ope (bo h VC and PE) assess he un-
d aising si ua ion mo e pessimis ic han hei coun e pa s om
he es o Eu ope
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H.K aeme -Eis e al.
und aising issues, a signi ican numbe o ope a ional challenges on he und and po olio
le el we e epo ed. O e all, he si ua ion seemed o be mo e di icul o he VC han he
PE sec o . Fo VC po olio companies, he inancing- and liquidi y- ela ed issues seemed
o be o a mo e exis en ial and su i al- h ea ening na u e, which also nega i ely a ec ed
he VC in es o s hemsel es. In esponse o hese challenges, bo h VC and PE in es o s
al e ed hei in es men s a egy ega ding p e e ed indus ies and placed g ea e empha-
sis on he p o i abili y and cash-/ e enue-gene a ing capaci y o hei po olio companies.
He e ogenei y analyses show ha gende di e ences wi h in es o s exis and ha in es o s
om Eas e n Eu ope assess he und aising si ua ion mo e pessimis ic han hei coun e -
pa s om he es o Eu ope. Table7 below summa izes ou main indings.
8.2 Limi a ions
O cou se, he esul s o ou wo su eys should be in e p e ed wi h g ea cau ion. Fi s ,
he su ey esponses a e a snapsho and e lec he economic and poli ical si ua ion in he
summe o 2022.2 Second, al hough we used o mula ions linking ou indings o he Rus-
sian wa agains Uk aine, i is no possible o claim any causali y. The e ec s we obse ed
migh ha e also occu ed wi hou he wa and i is ha d o sepa a e hem om o he e ec s
occu ing simul aneously ela ed o he geopoli ical si ua ion and mac oeconomic en i on-
men , pa icula ly ising in la ion le els and in e es a es. Ano he limi a ion conce ns ou
s ong ocus on en ep eneu ial inance in es o s loca ed in Eu ope (see Table10 in he
appendix o he loca ions o he headqua e s o he in es o s ha ook pa in ou su -
ey), which dep i es us o he possibili y o make compa isons be ween Eu opean, Asian
and US en ep eneu ial in es o s. This way, we a e no able o compa e he e ec s o he
wa on he Eu opean en ep eneu ial inance sec o wi h hose on he wo ldwide ma ke
o en ep eneu ial inance. Finally, as ou s udy is he i s one o i s kind, we could no
ely on es ablished ques ionnai es, scales, and i ems o measu e he impac o an exogene-
ous e en on en ep eneu ial inance. Using es ablished scales would ce ainly inc ease he
in e nal alidi y o ou esea ch and would acili a e compa isons wi h p io and u u e
esea ch on he e ec s o exogenous c isis e en s on en ep eneu ial inance.
8.3 Compa ison oea lie c ises andsho ‑ e suslong‑ e m e ec s
How do he cu en c isis and i s associa ed challenges and in es o eac ion compa e o
he si ua ion o ea lie c ises, in pa icula , he do -com c isis in he la e 1990s and ea ly
2000s (Alpe o ych e al., 2015; de V ies & Block, 2011) and he 2008–2009 global inan-
cial c isis (Block & Sandne , 2009; Con i e al., 2019)? The easons o he cu en c isis
a e di e en — hey a e mo e exogeneous and no d i en by an o e alua ion o echnology,
ma ke sa u a ion, and he ding beha io s o o he ma ke pa icipan s. I is he in asion o
Russia in o Uk aine and he change in he mac oeconomic en i onmen ha led o he cu -
en c isis.
I is p obably oo ea ly o make p edic ions abou wha his implies o he eco e y
and he long- e m p ospec s o he en ep eneu ial inance sec o . Unlike in ea lie c ises,
howe e , i could lead o a mo e undamen al shi in p e e ed indus ies and geog aphies,
2 We would also like o e e o ma ke de elopmen s since summe 2022, which show ha he Eu opean
VC and PE ma ke ac i i y con inued o cool down subs an ially, co obo a ing he su ey indings.
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En ep eneu ial inance inEu ope and heRussian wa agains …
and he e o e change in es men s a egies and p e e ences mo e p o oundly. Fo example,
al hough a he beginning o he COVID-19 c isis i looked as i we would expe ience a
doomsday scena io, he VC and PE ma ke s p o ed esilien , eco e ed quickly om he
i s shock o he pandemic and showed no signs o ‘long COVID’. To he con a y, hese
ma ke s we e able o iden i y he oppo uni ies and e en inally (a leas pa ially) bene i
om he c isis (e.g., by suppo ing companies p o iding inno a i e solu ions in he a eas
o heal hca e and bio ech). Howe e , in he a e ma h o he wa in Uk aine, he expec a-
ions o he su eyed und manage s we e a eco d lows o many o he ma ke sen imen
indica o s, e en when compa ed o hose du ing he COVID c isis. In addi ion, u he su -
ey indings, such as he g ea e isk-a e sion o LPs and hei lowe willingness o in es
in o he asse class, hin owa ds s uc u al issues which could be in e p e ed as pa e ns
and isks o a mo e longe - e m na u e. The sudden hal and esump ion in demand ol-
lowing he COVID-19 con inemen measu es esul ed in signi ican supply chain issues,
igni ing, in u n, a ising end in impo and p oduce p ices, in la ion as well as in la ion
expec a ions. These we e u he uelled by he su ge in ene gy p ices in he a e ma h o
he wa in Uk aine. The e a e signs ha he Eu opean VC and PE ma ke ac i i y cooled
down e en mo e subs an ially since summe he o 2022. Fo example, acco ding o ecen
Pi chBook epo s, VC und aising inc eased a a slowe pace in 2022, compa ed o he
yea be o e, and PE und aising d opped signi ican ly. A he same ime, new PE in es -
men s s abilised, bu VC in es men s in o young inno a i e companies declined. Nega i e
g ow h a es we e epo ed o he exi s o PE/VC-backed po olio companies. Mo eo e ,
in he i s mon hs o 2023, ma ke ac i i y has no s a ed o pick up again (Pi chBook,
2023a, 2023b).
I is unclea o wha ex en he e ec s o he cu en c isis a e limi ed o Eu ope and how
i a ec s en ep eneu ial inance ou side Eu ope. In hei annual moni o p oduced oge he
wi h Pi chBook and published in Q4 2022, he US Na ional Ven u e Capi al Associa ion
(NVCA) s a es ha “while 2022 ma ks an all- ime high o VC und aising and eco d
amoun s o d y powde […] he e is anxie y in he ma ke , and cu en playe s a e ein o c-
ing hei posi ions agains he possibili y o a igh e mone a y en i onmen ” (NVCA and
Pi chBook, 2022, p. 3). O e he yea , he numbe o VC deals d opped sha ply be ween
he i s and he las qua e . I emains o be seen whe he his sha p decline is jus he
“a e pa y e ec o 2021 wea ing o ” (NVCA and Pi chBook, 2022, p. 3) o is mo e un-
damen al and long- e m in na u e. I he Russian wa agains Uk aine changes he cha ac-
e o globaliza ion and mul ila e alism as we ha e seen i o e he las decades, hen his
will ce ainly no only a ec en ep eneu ial inance in Eu ope bu will ha e a wo ldwide
impac .
8.4 P ac ical implica ions andpolicy esponses
The u u e and p ospec s o he sec o a e ela ed o (Eu opean) policy esponses. EU and
membe s a e policies ha aim o make Eu ope mo e esilien and independen ega ding
ene gy and key enabling echnologies, o example, can lead o es ic ions bu also new
oppo uni ies o s a -ups and high-g ow h i ms wi h e ec s o en ep eneu ial inance
in es o s and hei LPs. Fo example, since COVID-19 and accele a ed by he Russian wa
agains Uk aine, subsidies by membe s a es o ce ain sec o s such as chip manu ac u ing,
hyd ogen p oduc ion, ba e y p oduc ion o elec ic ehicles, and he sola indus y a e a
a eco d high. This has di ec and indi ec e ec s o he en ep eneu ial inance sec o and
hei po olio companies. They may be di ec bene icia ies o such subsidies wi h impac s
2294
H.K aeme -Eis e al.
on he business cases and de elopmen o selec ed po olio companies. The impac will
be pa icula ly la ge o po olio companies wi h a link o he de ence o ene gy sec o .
Ye , such massi e subsidies need o be inanced, which can lead o inc eased axes o go -
e nmen deb . Bo h has implica ions o he en ep eneu ial inance ecosys em. En ep e-
neu ial inance in es o s may inc easingly also ace es ic ions when i comes o inding
(luc a i e) exi oppo uni ies. Fo echnologies and po olio en u es o high s a egic
and geopoli ical impo ance, he pool o candida es o a ade sale may educe s ongly as
in es o s om China o o he Russia- iendly coun ies a e no longe accep ed by policy-
make s and socie y a la ge. As hese illus a i e examples show, he business and p ac ice
o en ep eneu ial inance may ha e uned in o a mo e poli ically sensi i e business whe e
i ma e s who is behind a pa icula ansac ion and acqui es s a egically impo an asse s
o echnologies.
9 Agenda o u he esea ch
Se e al esea ch a enues exis o analyze he sho - and long- e m e ec s o he Rus-
sian wa agains Uk aine on en ep eneu ial inance. We p esen a sho agenda o u u e
esea ch.
9.1 Use o a chi al da a odisco e long‑ e m e ec s
While ou s udy is based on a su ey o VC and PE in es o s and can be conside ed a snap-
sho o he economic and poli ical si ua ion in (ea ly) summe 2022, u u e esea ch migh
use objec i e a chi al da a om Pi chBook, C unchbase, and o he inancial da abases o
assess he long- e m impac s o he Russian wa agains Uk aine on en ep eneu ial inance.
Fu u e esea ch can explo e how undamen al and long- e m he changes desc ibed in ou
s udy a e and wha his means o en ep eneu ship in he a ec ed coun ies, pa icula ly
in Uk aine, Russia, and he Bal ic S a es. To wha ex en is he wa associa ed wi h unda-
men al and long- e m shi s in indus y, echnology and coun y p e e ences o en ep e-
neu ial inance in es o s? Which indus ies, echnologies, and/o coun ies become mo e
a ac i e, and which ones do no ? How much is en u e alua ion a ec ed and how much
o his e ec can be a ibu ed o he wa and how much is due o an inc ease in in la ion
and in e es a es? P io esea ch on he global inancial c isis has shown ha he inancial
c isis is associa ed wi h a 20% dec ease in he a e age amoun o unds aised pe unding
ound (Block & Sandne , 2009). Finally, da a om inancial da abases would allow us o
in es iga e he wa - ela ed e ec s on und and po olio i m pe o mance o di e en ypes
o VC o PE in es o s (e.g., B aun e al., 2017; Haslange e al., 2022). Rela ed o his, one
could in es iga e which po olio selec ion s a egy is bes o mos esilien in a si ua ion o
high geopoli ical unce ain y.
9.2 Di e ences in hee ec s ac oss inancing ins umen s andac o s
The use o such a chi al da abases would also allow us o in es iga e he impac s o he
Russian wa agains Uk aine on deb -p o iding en ep eneu ial inance in es o s such as
en u e deb (De Rassen osse & Fische , 2016) o deb unds (Block e al., 2024). The
impac may be mo e se e e as hese ins umen s compe e agains bank loans and hei
in e es a es. Also, i would be in e es ing o analyze he e ec s o he wa on ea ly-s age
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En ep eneu ial inance inEu ope and heRussian wa agains …
in es o s o inancing ools such as business angel unding (Mason & Bo elho, 2021) o
(equi y) c owd unding (Chandle e al., 2021). As such inancing ins umen s a e less
dependen on LP unding om inancial ins i u ions, one could expec he e ec o he
wa o be lowe . Ne e heless, a ypical exi channel o a business angel is a VC in es o
(Capizzi e al., 2022), which could lead o an indi ec cascade o ickle-down e ec . P io
esea ch on COVID-19 sugges s ha ea ly-s age inancing can be hi pa icula ly ha d in a
si ua ion o an exogenous shock (B own & Rocha, 2020). Fo c owd unding, one could also
a gue ha i is mo e inclusi e compa ed o adi ional sou ces o en ep eneu ial inancing
(Bu icè & Visma a, 2022), and he e o e he eac ion owa ds an exogenous c isis migh
be di e en . Finally, as ea ly-s age en ep eneu s may s uggle o ob ain money om busi-
ness angels, hey may inc easingly u n o boo s apping beha io (G ichnik e al., 2014;
Vanacke e al., 2011) as an al e na i e way o inancing hei ea ly-s age en ep eneu ial
ac i i ies. P io esea ch by Block e al. (2021) shows ha many en ep eneu s ha e suc-
cess ully used boo s apping echniques as a ool o su i e he business es ic ions in o-
duced du ing COVID 19. I emains o be seen whe he boo s apping can also compensa e
o some ex en o he inancing gaps associa ed wi h he Russian wa agains Uk aine. To
iden i y boo s apping beha io , one could analyze he balance shee s o en ep eneu ial
en u es and look o signs o an inc eased use o ade c edi s and/o c edi ca d o bank
accoun o e d a s.
9.3 E ec s onPE andVC con ac ing
To educe in o ma ion unce ain y and mo al haza d esul ing om p incipal-agen
p oblems VC and PE in es o s bu also LPs u n o sophis ica ed con ac ing (Fu e al.,
2022; Kaplan & S ömbe g, 2003). Gi en he inc ease in geopoli ical unce ain y and he
inc easing impo ance o geopoli ical ac o s, VC and PE con ac ing may ha e changed
as well. Hence, o wha ex en a e geopoli ical issues and associa ed es ic ions now an
in eg al pa o VC o PE con ac s, o example abou exi channels, echnology in- o
ou -licensing, o en u e in e na ionaliza ion? When included, how a e such geopoli ical
con ac clauses en o ced? Wha is he ole o epo ing o moni o ing in his ega d? How
does he inclusion o en o cemen o such poli ical con ac clauses di e by in es o ype
(e.g., go e nmen al e sus p i a e) o ype o LP? Such esea ch will be di icul o con-
duc h ough quan i a i e empi ical esea ch bu will likely be ca ied ou using quali a i e
esea ch me hods.
9.4 E ec s onVC syndica ion ne wo ks
P io esea ch has in es iga ed he composi ion and e ec s o VC syndica es and VC syn-
dica ion ne wo ks (e.g., Hochbe g e al., 2007). The choice o a syndica ion pa ne and
he composi ion o a VC unding syndica e has been explained om a inancial, ne wo k-
ing, and esou ce-based/ alue-added pe spec i e (e.g., De V ies & Block, 2011; Dimo
& Milano , 2010; Hopp & Lukas, 2014; Maniga e al., 2006; So enson & S ua , 2001).
A consequence o he Russian wa agains Uk aine could be ha poli ical ac o s and he
coun y o esidence o o igin o he syndica ion pa ne play inc easingly impo an oles.
Hence, i would be in e es ing o analyze whe he he composi ion o VC unding syn-
dica es and he syndica ion ne wo ks o VCs has changed as a esul o he Russian wa
agains Uk aine.
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H.K aeme -Eis e al.
9.5 E ec s on hema ke o IPOs and ade sales
P io esea ch shows ha wa s can ha e signi ican nega i e impac s on equi y ma ke s
(Choudh y, 2010; Hudson & U quha , 2015). No su p isingly, such an e ec was also
ound o he Russian wa agains Uk aine. The e ec s we e pa icula ly s ong o
Eu opean and Asian coun ies (Yousa e al., 2022) and i ms om he ene gy sec o
(Uma e al., 2022). Lowe equi y p ices also educe he a ac i i y o IPOs, which
in u n makes i mo e di icul o VC and PE in es o s o success ully exi om hei
in es men s. The ma ke o ade sales may also be a ec ed by he wa and co po a e
acqui e s om speci ic coun ies may no longe be welcomed. Fu u e esea ch could
analyze how he Russian wa agains Uk aine changed he exi oppo uni ies o VC
and PE in es o s and how such a change can be a ibu ed o changes in he ma ke o
IPOs and ade sales.
9.6 Dis up ions inen ep eneu ial inance andimpac s onen ep eneu ship
Nex o he impac o he wa on he ma ke o en ep eneu ial inance, i is also impo an
o conside he di ec and indi ec e ec s o he wa on ea ly- and la e -s age en ep eneu -
ship and inno a ion in Eu ope. The Russian wa agains Uk aine did no only a ec he
supply o unds and he alua ion o po olio companies bu also impac ed he en ep e-
neu ial oppo uni ies as such and he associa ed p oduc ion and supply chain p ocesses.
Fu u e esea ch could y o disen angle how much o he e ec o he wa on ea ly- and
la e -s age en ep eneu ship and inno a ion can be a ibu ed o dis up ions in he ma -
ke o en ep eneu ial inance. Such an analysis could ake place on egional and coun y
le els.
9.7 E ec s onclean ech in es men s o PE andVC i ms
Ano he impo an ques ion is o wha ex en he Russian wa agains Uk aine impac s
clean ech in es men s o PE and VC i ms in Eu ope—bo h in he long and sho e m. The
answe is no clea . On he one hand, he s udy by Ho man and Huisman (2012) men ioned
in he li e a u e sec ion abo e showed a nega i e e ec o an unexpec ed exogenous e en
such as he inancial c isis on he popula i y o en i onmen al policies and VC in es men s
in o clean ech. On he o he hand, as he Russian wa agains Uk aine has had a unda-
men al impac on he oil and gas supply in Eu ope, he wa may ac ually igge VC and
PE clean ech in es men s in o he enewable ene gy sec o in Eu ope. Fu u e esea ch will
show wha e ec domina es.
9.8 P imacy o poli ics o e economics ande ec s o policy ini ia i es
The Russian wa agains Uk aine led o a p imacy o poli ics o e economics and hence
en ep eneu ship, echnology and inno a ion policy (Basilico e al., 2023; Gokhbe g e al.,
2022) play an inc easingly impo an ole in how en ep eneu ship and inno a ion un olds
and de elops. In his espec , how did he wa change he expec a ions o policy-make s
and he socie y a la ge owa ds en ep eneu ial inance in es o s and en ep eneu ship?
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Publishe ’s No e Sp inge Na u e emains neu al wi h ega d o ju isdic ional claims in published maps and
ins i u ional a ilia ions.
Au ho s and A ilia ions
Helmu K aeme ‑Eis1· Joe nBlock2,3,4 · An oniaBo sa i1· F ankLang1·
Sol ejLo enzen4· Wal e Diegel2
* Joe n Block
block@uni- ie .de
1 Eu opean In es men Fund, 37B, a enue John F. Kennedy, 2968Luxembou gCi y, Luxembou g
2 Facul y o Managemen , Uni e si y o T ie , Uni e si ae s ing 15, 54296T ie , Ge many
3 Cen e o Family En ep eneu ship andOwne ship, Jönköping In e na ional Business School,
Jönköping, Sweden
4 Wi en/He decke Uni e si y, Wi en, Ge many
