The cobra effect in TVET policy making: A macro-micro-macro-level analysis of exemplary cases From Germany

Schmees, Johannes Ka l; G unau, Janika
A icle
The cob a e ec in TVET policy making: A mac o-mic o-
mac o-le el analysis o exempla y cases F om Ge many
In e na ional Jou nal o Resea ch in Voca ional Educa ion and T aining (IJRVET)
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Eu opean Resea ch Ne wo k in Voca ional Educa ion and T aining (VETNET), Eu opean Educa ional
Resea ch Associa ion
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Schmees, Johannes Ka l; G unau, Janika (2025) : The cob a e ec in TVET policy
making: A mac o-mic o-mac o-le el analysis o exempla y cases F om Ge many, In e na ional
Jou nal o Resea ch in Voca ional Educa ion and T aining (IJRVET), ISSN 2197-8646, Eu opean
Resea ch Ne wo k in Voca ional Educa ion and T aining (VETNET), Eu opean Educa ional Resea ch
Associa ion, B emen, Vol. 12, Iss. 2, pp. 174-191,
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In e na ional Jou nal o Resea ch in Voca ional Educa ion and T aining (IJRVET)
2025, Vol. 12, Issue 2, 174–191
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The Cob a E ec in TVET Policy Making:
A Mac o-Mic o-Mac o-Le el Analysis
o Exempla y Cases F om Ge many
Johannes K. Schmees1*, Janika G unau2
1Uni e si y o De by, College o A s, Humani ies and Educa ion, Ins i u e o Educa ion,
Technical and Voca ional Educa ion and T aining Resea ch Clus e , Kedles on Road,
De by, DE22 1GB, Uni ed Kingdom
2Osnab ück Uni e si y, School o Educa ional and Cul u al S udies, Ins i ue o Educa ion,
Depa men o Voca ional Educa ion S udies, Ka ha inens aße 24,
49078 Osnab ück, Ge many
Recei ed: 04 June 2024, Accep ed: 22 Oc obe 2024
Abs ac
Con ex : Unlike educa ion policy o gene al educa ion, echnical and oca ional educa-
ion and aining (TVET) policy o en ocuses on socie al needs, igno ing he a i udes and
subsequen beha io s o lea ne s. As a esul , he impac o TVET policies is no wha was
expec ed and some imes e en coun e p oduc i e. S a ing om his, we use mac o-mic o-
mac o-le el analysis inspi ed by Coleman's boa heo em o e lec on h ee exempla y cases
o Ge man TVET policy. These TVET policies ha e in common ha hey aim o educe
skills sho ages in ce ain occupa ions.
App oach: Ou pape illus a es he alue o mac o-mic o-mac o-le el analysis when loo-
king a TVET policies and p og ams. To his end, we look a h ee exempla y cases. All he
cases ep esen TVET policies and p og ams aimed a educing skills sho ages, a common
issue o mos coun ies in he wo ld. One way o add essing hose sho ages a e TVET
policies o which we p esen he e: (1) Inc easing he pe meabili y be ween TVET and hig-
he educa ion, (2) a ac ing wo ke s o pos -quali ica ion and (3) di ec ed ca ee counsel-
ling o e ugees. Using Coleman's boa heo em, we analyze he cases in e ms o whe he
*Co esponding au ho : j.schmees@de by.ac.uk
175
Schmees, G unau
he policy s a egies add ess he skills sho age adequa ely. We hen compa e he cases wi h
each o he o d aw gene al conclusions ega ding he connec ion o mac o- and mic o-le el
wi hin policy making in TVET.
Findings: A common inding among all h ee case s udies is ha he in es iga ed policies
and p og ams do no conside possible de ian conside a ions o ac o s a he mic o-le el
adequa ely. Consequen ly, he ac o 's beha io s on he mic o-le el can con adic he in en-
ion o he policy.
Conclusion: We conclude ha i is essen ial o ake mic o-le el pe spec i es in o accoun
when de eloping poli ical s a egies o TVET. The e o e, TVET policies and p og ams
should be de eloped om a mo e subjec -o ien ed pe spec i e and as a second s ep include
socie al needs. Fu he mo e, TVET policies and p og ams ha e o be accomplished by e-
o ms changing wo k condi ions o he be e . Only hen, he e is a chance o con e gence
o mic o-le el decisions and mac o-le el ou comes.
Keywo ds: Skills Sho age, Technical and Voca ional Educa ion and T aining, TVET, Tech-
nical and Voca ional Educa ion and T aining Policy, Case S udy, Coleman's Boa
1 TheMissingLinko  heCob aE ec
The Ge man economis Ho s Siebe in oduced he so-called cob a e ec as an anecdo al il-
lus a ion o side e ec s o public policies: Se in India unde B i ish ule, he B i ish go e n-
men in oduced a lump sum o e e y cob a head u ned-in as o igh he cob a plague in
old Delhi. As esul , cob as we e b ed o bene i om he lump sum. When he policy was
wi hd awn, all he hen b ed cob as we e se ee leading o he highes e e numbe o cob as
in and a ound Delhi (c . Siebe , 2001). This a he anecdo al e idence, in i s co e, illus a es
a missing link be ween he policy and i s in en ions on he mac o-le el and he ac ual beha-
io s o people on he mic o-le el. While his phenomenon is no new i has so a no been
discussed in echnical and oca ional educa ion and aining (TVET) policy – we will do so
by using Coleman's (2000) model o mac o-mic o-mac o-le el ela ions.
As an exempla y case, we analyze ecen Ge man TVET policies add essing skills
sho ages. In pa icula , he c a and heal hca e sec o s a e conce ned wi h a lack o quali ied
wo ke s (BMWI, 2021): In c a s, he e we e 60,000 acan posi ions in 2020 – an inc ease
o 50% since 2010 (KOFA, 2021). Rega ding nu sing, i is assumed ha mo e han 100,000
ull- ime equi alen s will be equi ed o co e he ca e supply in 2030 (Ro hgang e al., 2020;
Schwinge e al., 2019). Besides o he s a egies, also TVET policies and p og ams we e
implemen ed o close hose gaps, o example, by (1) inc easing he pe meabili y be ween
TVET and highe educa ion (see also Schmees & G unau, 2020), (2) a ac ing wo ke s o
176 Cob a E ec in TVET Policy Making
pos -quali ica ion, o (3) ec ui ing people ia di ec ed ca ee counselling o e ugees. Ou
analysis e eals ha he indi iduals on he mic o-le el beha e di e en ly han assumed. Ac-
co dingly, his s udy inds ha he expec ed e ec o educing skills sho age is no achie ed
in any o he h ee case s udies.
In he ollowing sec ion, he unde lying heo y is p esen ed alongside some me hodological
ema ks. A e wa ds, he case s udies a e p esen ed. Finally, we agg ega e ou indings and
sugges an adap ed e sion o Coleman's model ha , in ou iew, is pa icula ly sui ed o
TVET esea ch.
2 Coleman'sBoa :Theo yandMe hodology
Coleman's boa model con ibu es o explain an e ec on he mac o-le el by a cause on he
mic o-le el. The e o e, i is sui able o deal wi h a undamen al ques ion o he social scien-
ces: The ela ionship be ween socie y and i s agen s. The boa model, which Coleman himsel
calls 'me a heo y' implies h ee p oposi ions. Fi s , in o de o explain he cause and e ec
on he mac o-le el, he mac o-le el cause impac s he disposi ions o mic o-le el agen s. The
second p oposi ion is en i ely loca ed on he mic o-le el and connec s he mic o-le el agen 's
disposi ion wi h hei ac ion. Thi d, he indi idual mic o-le el ac ion is econnec ed o he
mac o-le el. The p oposi ion he e is ha he agg ega ed ac ion o all he agen s on he mic o-
le el leads o he mac o-le el e ec (Fig. 1; Coleman, 2000).
Figu e 1: The Mac o-Mic o-Mac o Analysis Acco ding o
Coleman's Boa (adap ed om Coleman, 2000)
As a me a-analysis, he h ee p oposi ions wi hin he boa model mus be u he en- iched by
ac ion heo ies (Coleman, 2000). Howe e , he boa model can also cla i y he necessa y s eps
ha mus be alid so ha a gi en assump ion is ue. Coleman himsel used he boa model
o e lec upon Webe 's claim ha Cal inism was esponsible o he eme gence o capi alism
(Coleman, 2000). In his u he hough s on he boa model, Ylikoski (2016) sugges s using i
177
Schmees, G unau
as a heu is ic in o de o poin ou c ucial elemen s, a icula ing he s uc u al assump ions o
explana ions o accoun ing o he explana o y asks o social sciences. The e o e, in ou pape ,
Coleman's boa unc ions as a ool o c i ically assessing implici assump ions made by poli-
cy ac o s in Ge many ega ding he educ ion o skill sho age. The model se es as a ool o
examine i causal connec ions on he mac o-le el in TVET policymaking can be subs an ia ed
h ough ou analysis, which inco po a es he mic o-le el. As o he case o TVET, i is wo h
men ioning ha Coleman himsel applied he boa model o a TVET policy aiming o educe
black you h unemploymen in he Uni ed S a es (Coleman, 1987, 2000).
Ou case s udies a e based on h ee p e iously published quali a i e esea ch s udies, (1)
on academic o ien a ion (G unau, 2017), (2) u he quali ica ion in he ca e sec o (G unau
& Sachse, 2020), and (3) he in eg a ion o e ugees in o he job ma ke (Migu a & Schmees,
2023; o a mo e comp ehensi e analysis, see Wehking, 2020). Fo he pape , we conduc ed
a seconda y analysis o hese s udies by e-in e p e ing he s udies acco ding o he me ho-
dology o he boa model. The analyses a e based on quali a i e da a om he au ho s' e-
e ence p ojec s and he e o e explo a o y in na u e. All h ee cases a e based on in e iew
su eys wi h biog aphical-na a i e componen s. In addi ion o na a i es and e lec ions
on he pas and p esen , u u e de elopmen s we e also an icipa ed. As o he analyses, he
h ee p oposi ions we e spelled ou o each case. Fo he mac o-le el assump ions abou he
causali y be ween TVET e o ms and hei assumed impac o be ue, all h ee p oposi ions
mus p o e o be accu a e. The h ee p oposi ions a e hen subjec o a c i ical examina ion
by ques ioning he homogenei y o he g oup o agen s, which a e subsequen ly di ided in o
empi ically based ypes. To gene a e he ypes o each case, we used he o iginal s udies and
in addi ion suppo ing li e a u e. The analyses o hese ypes o agen s a e hen used o ques-
ion he gi en policy's expec ed mac o-le el e ec . The e o e, agen s' mindse s and goals a e
discussed, wi h a gi en policy's p ojec ed ou come compa ed o ou analysis.
3 CaseS udies
This sec ion p esen s h ee case s udies acco ding o he same s uc u e: A e p esen ing
backg ound in o ma ion, we de elop a concep ion o each case's ac o s on he mic o-le el.
Finally, we p esen indings ha indica e a disc epancy be ween he expec ed e ec o he
TVET p og am o policy and he ou come acco ding o ou analysis.

178 Cob a E ec in TVET Policy Making
3.1 Pe meabili yBe weenVoca ionalandHighe Educa ion1
In 2014, Julian Nida-Rümelin wa ned agains an 'academiza ion mania' in Ge many. This
conclusion was based on an analysis ha , on he one hand, emphasized he economic neces-
si y o a unc ioning TVET sys em and, on he o he hand, a ionalized a decision o TVET:
Ins ead o choosing he conges ed academic pa h, i would be ad isable o adolescen s and
young adul s o op o TVET, also om a inancial poin o iew (Nida-Rümelin, 2014). Des-
pi e hese and o he wa nings, he a ac i eness o highe educa ion pe sis s (Au o eng uppe
Bildungsbe ich e s a ung, 2018). De elopmen s in Ge many can hus be obse ed globally
as pa o a phenomenon e e ed o as 'massi ica ion o highe educa ion' (Al bach, 2017,
p. 1) o 'uni e saliza ion o highe educa ion' (T ow, 2007). E en i he absolu e numbe o
s uden s emains iden ical ( o demog aphic easons), he e is much o sugges ha he a io
o s uden s in highe educa ion will con inue o ise in Ge many (Eule , 2017).
Agains his backg ound, he a ac i eness o TVET is subjec o discussion among po-
li icians and scien is s, and possibili ies o inc easing i s a ac i eness a e cen al wi hin
hese discussions. Examples o his a en ion include he 'Yea o Voca ional Educa ion and
T aining' as a public e en , he es uc u ing o aining due o new equi emen s, as well as
he inc ease in aining allowances. Fu he mo e, he upg ading o TVET h ough inc eased
access o highe educa ion is discussed in he con ex o inc easing a ac i eness (e.g., BIBB,
2014).
I is implici ly assumed ha o mally 'upg ading' TVET quali ica ions by g an ing hig-
he educa ion access op ions inc eases he a ac i eness o TVET o eenage s and young
adul s, as such a shi would open up o mo e oppo uni ies in he u u e. As consequence,
mo e eenage s and young adul s would pu sue a TVET quali ica ion, which would in u n
inc ease he numbe o app en ices and subsequen ly he numbe o p o essionals in each
ield. This supposedly causal ela ionship can be illus a ed wi h he help o a mac o-mic o-
mac o ela ionship, which aims o explain a mac o-le el ela ionship h ough he beha io s
o indi idual agen s a he mic o-le el (Fig. 2).
1 This case s udy was published be o e in Ge man o a sho jou nal a icle (Schmees & G unau, 2020). Fo his pape , he case
has been ex ended and ansla ed.
179
Schmees, G unau
Figu e 2: Assumed Consequences o a Fo mal Upg ading o TVET
Quali ica ions (based on Coleman, 2000; also used in Schmees & G unau, 2020)
In line wi h he o iginal analysis, we a gue o a di e en ia ed conside a ion, bo h wi h e-
ga d o he so-called con ex hypo hesis (acco ding o which a o mal upg ading o TVET
quali ica ions would lead o an inc ease in a ac i eness a he agen s' le el) and wi h ega d
o he so-called agg ega ion ule (acco ding o which a decision in a o o aining due o i s
pe meabili y would lead o mo e skilled wo ke s o co e he demand). This assump ion will
be es ed in he nex sec ion.
Typi ica ion: Th ee Types o Academically O ien ed App en ices
In o de o di e en ia e he agen s, we ely on he esul s o a s udy in which ad anced s u-
den s we e asked abou hei educa ional pa hs and decisions in na a i e in e iews (G u-
nau, 2017). All he in e iewees had comple ed a TVET quali ica ion be o e aking up hei
s udies. The sou ce ma e ial comp ises N = 15 in e iews, which we e eanalyzed o his
pape . Rega ding he ques ion o whe he he pe meabili y be ween TVET and academic
educa ion con ibu es o inc easing he a ac i eness o TVET, wo ypes o s uden s could
be econs uc ed as highligh ed in p e ious s udies: An academically o ien ed ype and a
oca ionally o ien ed ype (see also G unau, 2017). In addi ion, he e is a hi d ype, who
ep esen a mix u e o he ea lie wo ypes (Schmeise , 2003).
The i s ype (Type I) shows a undamen ally academic o ien a ion ha o igina es in
amily and school socializa ion. The s uden s come om academic o academically o ien ed
amily homes and usually acqui e highe educa ion en ance quali ica ion on a linea pa h.
The goal o pu suing an academic ca ee is al eady de e mined be o e s a ing TVET. Fo
his ype o s uden s, TVET ul ils he unc ion o a p e- o in e im p og am, o example o
b idge semes e s, wai ing o a deg ee cou se o begin. Re ospec i ely, TVET is ne e heless
usually seen as aluable, o example ega ding p ac ical expe ience and o he 'so ' allback
180 Cob a E ec in TVET Policy Making
op ion ha an app en iceship migh o e . Fo s uden s in his ype, TVET ini ially se es
a speci ic biog aphical pu pose bu adds no o mal added alue wi h ega d o aking up a
deg ee p og am which is he desi ed des ina ion. Remaining in he ained occupa ion is, a
bes , an eme gency op ion. In his case, he pe meabili y be ween TVET and academic edu-
ca ion does no in eali y con ibu e o making TVET mo e a ac i e.
Fo s uden s in he second ype (Type II), he educa ional-biog aphical o ien a ion is
mo e oca ional-p agma ic. He e oo, amily and school socializa ion p ocesses play a cen al
ole: The s uden s usually come om non-academic bu educa ionally ambi ious amilies.
Typically, hey i s comple e TVET a e g adua ing om seconda y school. Only du ing
hei aining o p o essional li es does he op ion o s udying a ise – mo e o less ela ed o
hei speci ic si ua ions. The access op ions ia TVET o academic educa ion become ele an
in his case, bu hey a e no a policy ool o inc easing a ac i eness: They did no choose
TVET because i en ails he op ion o s udy, bu because i ini ially appea ed o be he only
iable pa h wi hin hei pe cei ed ho izons o possibili y. Only la e did he op ion o pu su-
ing an academic ca ee become ealis ic.
Fo hese wo ypical s uden s wi h TVET, bo h hose wi h a basic academic o ien a ion
and hose wi h a basic oca ional-p agma ic o ien a ion, he op ion o ansi ioning o hig-
he educa ion plays no o only a subo dina e ole in p omo ing he a ac i eness o TVET.
Bu hings a e di e en o s uden s in he hi d ca ego y (Type III): These a e s uden s who
a e socialized academically, bu whose educa ional pa hs lead o TVET, o example by a -
ending a seconda y school and hen pu suing TVET. This ype is cha ac e ized by a sense
o educa ional ela i e dep i a ion in hei espec i e amilies – Schmeise (2003) speaks in
his con ex o 'waywa d' sons and daugh e s. To compensa e o his sense o decline, he
op ions be ween TVET and academic educa ion can inc ease he a ac i eness o TVET, as
his opens up pe spec i es o e u ning o he amily's o iginally in ended pa h, which can
hen be ul illed in a second a emp .
E en i he ypi ica ion (Tab. 1 o an o e iew) may no co e e e y speci ic indi idual
case, he ollowing endency can be shown: The op ion o ansi ion be ween TVET and
academic educa ion only inc eases he a ac i eness o TVET o a mino i y, a bes . In ou
analysis o his case, his mino i y comp ises Type III, s uden s o whom an academic ca-
ee was a p ospec om he ou se , bu o whom TVET is ini ially mo e ealizable due o
hei pe o mance in school. E en i TVET en i les oca ionally and p agma ically o ien ed
s uden s (Type II) o pu sue highe educa ion, he po en ial o ansi ion be ween TVET
and academic educa ion does no ha e he e ec o inc easing he a ac i eness o choosing
TVET in he i s place.
181
Schmees, G unau
Table 1: Typi ica ion o Case 1 (based on Schmees & G unau, 2020)
Type I Type II Type III
Mindse
(Modus Ope andi)
academic oca ional-
p agma ic
mixed
Pe meabili y Needed no yes yes
Rising A ac i eness o
En e ing TVET
no no yes
Mac o-Le el E ec maximum sho - e m skills
gain
none, long- e m skills loss none
Consequences: Con inuing Skills Sho age
A e he con ex hypo hesis (acco ding o which a o mal upg ading o TVET quali ica ions
would lead o a gene al inc ease in a ac i eness) was subjec ed o a di e en ia ed analysis,
he agg ega ion ule (acco ding o which a esul ing decision in a o o aining would lead
o mo e oca ionally quali ied skilled wo ke s) can be alsi ied.
Each o he h ee ypes could ela e o pe meabili y in di e en ways, none o which ap-
pea pa icula ly bene icial o closing he skills gap. Fo s uden s in Type I, o example, pe -
meabili y would ini ially inc ease he numbe o ainees, bu wi hou inc easing he numbe
o oca ionally quali ied skilled wo ke s in he medium o long un. T aining would play
a ole p ima ily in e ms o educa ional biog aphies and could no be ully u ilized econo-
mically. Fo s uden s in Type II, undamen ally oca ionally o ien ed skilled wo ke s could
make use o he access op ions o highe educa ion. This leads o a educ ion in p o essionally
quali ied skilled wo ke s who con ibu e o mee ing he demand o skilled wo ke s. Finally,
o s uden s in Type III, pe meabili y would also no se e o mee he demand o skilled
wo ke s, since he ' e u n' o academic educa ion aimed o om he beginning would hus
appea easible wi hin he amewo k o he (inc eased) access op ions o highe educa ion.
In sum, pe meabili y a leas inc eases he po en ial o he mig a ion o oca ionally qua-
li ied skilled wo ke s owa d academic ca ee s. I is, hen, exp essly no a way o inc ease he
numbe o skilled wo ke s. Thus, he connec ion om he mic o o he mac o-le el is clea ly
a misconcep ion.
3.2 Valida ionandRecogni ion o Low-Quali iedNu singAssis an s
Valida ion a angemen s a e bo n om he hope o inc easing he isibili y and ecogni ion
o in o mal lea ning. Fo he heal hca e sec o (and especially o ge ia ic nu sing), alida-
ion a angemen s a e ega ded as con ibu ions o add ess he inc easing skills sho age. In
sho , h ough alida ion a angemen s, unce i ica ed wo ke s' 'hidden' compe encies can
be made isible and usable o he labo ma ke . In he p ojec s Kompe enzbilanzie ung ü
äl e e A bei nehme innen und A bei nehme (skills assessmen o olde employees; KomBiA)
and Validie ungs e ah en und Nachquali izie ung in de Al enp lege ( alida ion p ocedu es
188 Cob a E ec in TVET Policy Making
Figu e 5: Mac o-Mic o-Mac o 'Ten ' (own c ea ion)
All in all, we conclude ha i is essen ial o ake mic o-le el pe spec i es, and especially he
ac o s' op ions and a ionale, in o accoun when de eloping poli ical s a egies in TVET and
hei mac o-le el e ec s. The sugges ed mac o-mic o-mac o ' en ' can be a ool analyze pos-
sible achie emen s when i comes o TVET policymaking and beyond. Howe e , i can also
be used as an ins umen o policy planning whe e he indi idual mindse s (and he e o e
a mo e subjec -o ien ed pe spec i e) a e se iously conside ed. Because apa om s uc u al
challenges, an educa ional pe spec i e should also include he mindse o he indi idual lea -
ne as a esou ce o hei u u e de elopmen , as opposed o some hing (o someone) ha
can be ins umen alized o a g ea e good. Socie al needs mus be conside ed as a second
s ep o balance indi idual and socie al pe spec i es.
As a poin o discussion, he appa en s a ics and linea i y o he en model emain. I
should be conside ed ha he labo ma ke is dynamic, and decisions a e subjec o a ious,
pa ly sociogene ic in luences (e.g., gende , wages, social hie a chies). Like Coleman's boa ,
he en model ep esen s a complexi y- educing explana o y app oach o he ques ion o
mac o- and mic o- ela ions. Finally, socie al p oblems canno be sol ed by e o ms o he
educa ion sys em alone (e.g., G uschka, 2000) bu ha e o be accompanied by comp ehensi e
e o ms. Easy ixes will mos likely lead o coun e e ec s – like he inc ease o cob as in old
Delhi illus a es.

189
Schmees, G unau
Acknowledgemen 
The esea ch was sel - unded. We hank Lihua Xie, Tongji Uni e si y, Shanghai, China, Hui
Tang, Uni e si y o Bambe g, Ge many, and Johannes Klassen, Helmu Schmid Uni e si y,
Hambu g, Ge many, o hei aluable sugges ions and commen s on an ea lie d a o his
pape . We a e also g a e ul o he e iewe s o hei aluable eedback. The au ho s a e solely
esponsible o any emaining sho comings.
E hicsS a emen
The au ho s epo he e a e no compe ing in e es s o decla e. The e hical equi emen s we e
espec ed by he au ho s.
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Biog aphicalNo es
Johannes Ka l Schmees is an Associa e P o esso o Technical and Voca ional Educa ion and
T aining (TVET) a he Ins i u e o Educa ion, Uni e si y o De by, Uni ed Kingdom. His
esea ch in e es s a e in in e na ional and compa a i e esea ch on TVET sys ems. The eby
he is pa icula ly in e es ed in in e na ional and bila e al in luences on he de elopmen o
TVET s uc u es.
Janika G unau is a Pos doc o al Resea che in echnical and oca ional educa ion and ai-
ning a he Depa men o Voca ional S udies a Osnab ück Uni e si y, Ge many. In he e-
sea ch she ocuses on heal h ca e p o essions, social inequali y in academic and oca ional
educa ion and quali a i e designs. He wo k has been published in pee - e iewed jou nals
and edi o ial books.