Bena d, Manuel; Yu, Runze; Pu, Wenjing
Wo king Pape
E olu ion o he China Railway Exp ess in he con ex o
policy suppo , ade ends, and in as uc u e supply
ADBI Wo king Pape , No. 1434
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Asian De elopmen Bank Ins i u e (ADBI), Tokyo
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Bena d, Manuel; Yu, Runze; Pu, Wenjing (2024) : E olu ion o he China Railway
Exp ess in he con ex o policy suppo , ade ends, and in as uc u e supply, ADBI Wo king
Pape , No. 1434, Asian De elopmen Bank Ins i u e (ADBI), Tokyo,
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ADBI Wo king Pape Se ies
EVOLUTION OF THE CHINA RAILWAY
EXPRESS IN THE CONTEXT OF POLICY
SUPPORT, TRADE TRENDS, AND
INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPLY
Manuel Bena d, Runze Yu, and Wenjing Pu
No. 1434
Ma ch 2024
Asian De elopmen Bank Ins i u e
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Sugges ed ci a ion:
Bena d, M., R. Yu, and W. Pu. 2024. E olu ion o he China Railway Exp ess in he Con ex
o Policy Suppo , T ade T ends, and In as uc u e Supply. ADBI Wo king Pape 1434. Tokyo:
Asian De elopmen Bank Ins i u e. A ailable: h ps://doi.o g/10.56506/ARYP4840
Please con ac he au ho s o in o ma ion abou his pape .
Email: manuel.bena[email p o ec ed], [email p o ec ed], [email p o ec ed]
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– anspo a he Asian In as uc u e In es men Bank, Beijing, People’s Republic
o China.
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ADBI Wo king Pape 1434 M. Bena d e al.
Abs ac
This pape del es in o he de elopmen al ajec o y and u u e p ospec s o China Railway
(CR) Exp ess, a con aine ized ailway eigh se ice be ween he People’s Republic
o China ( he PRC) and Eu ope, and examines he associa ed in as uc u e in es men needs
o enhancing Eu asian eigh anspo . Since i s es ablishmen in 2011, CR Exp ess has
demons a ed ema kable g ow h, esilien e en in he ace o challenges such as he COVID-
19 pandemic and he onse o he Russian in asion o Uk aine.
The subs an ial expansion o CR Exp ess o e he pas decade can be pa ially a ibu ed o
gene ous subsidies and a o able policies. While i is an icipa ed ha go e nmen subsidies
will g adually be phased ou , he ongoing ole o a o able policies will emain pi o al in
shaping he ajec o y o CR Exp ess’s u u e g ow h.
Despi e he dynamic e olu ion o he global ade landscape, he obus and s eadily g owing
ade ela ionship be ween he PRC and Eu ope p o ides a solid ounda ion o CR Exp ess
o sus ain i s g ow h momen um. CR Exp ess is also poised o capi alize on he g owing
demand o high- alue p oduc s, including elec onics, au o pa s, high-end appa el,
machine y, and p emium u ni u e, as well as ime-sensi i e goods such as esh p oduce,
e e yday clo hing, and seasonal oys.
Howe e , he g ow h po en ial o CR Exp ess aces impedimen s in he o m o in as uc u e
limi a ions and ope a ional challenges. Bo lenecks a po s, ailways, and logis ics hubs,
coupled wi h issues like insu icien s anda diza ion, echnical cons ain s, and se ice- ela ed
challenges, exe a nega i e impac on he o e all e iciency and a ac i eness o CR Exp ess.
In esponse o hese cons ain s, conce ed e o s a e unde way encompassing in as uc u e
cons uc ion and mode niza ion ini ia i es, as well as he digi aliza ion o logis ics se ices.
In es men oppo uni ies eme ge in he o m o in as uc u e cons uc ion and upg ades,
along wi h he adop ion o p o en new echnologies and digi al solu ions o enhance he
e iciency and compe i i eness o ailway se ices.
Keywo ds: China Railway Exp ess, PRC–Eu ope ade, Eu asian eigh anspo , po s,
ailways, logis ics
JEL Classi ica ion: L92, F1, P45, R41, O24
ADBI Wo king Pape 1434 M. Bena d e al.
Con en s
1. INTRODUCTION TO CR EXPRESS AND ITS RAPID GROWTH ............................... 1
1.1 CR Exp ess’s Poli ical Signi icance, Economic Impac ,
and En i onmen al Bene i s ............................................................................. 1
1.2 Mul ila e al Coope a ion ................................................................................... 2
1.3 Rapid G ow h ................................................................................................... 4
2. POLICY SUPPORT FOR CR EXPRESS DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL .................... 5
2.1 Inside he PRC ................................................................................................. 5
2.2 Ou side he PRC .............................................................................................. 6
3. DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR CR EXPRESS DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ................. 6
3.1 E ol ing Global T ade Landscape ................................................................... 6
3.2 PRC–EU T ade O e iew ................................................................................ 7
3.3 PRC–EU T ade by T anspo Mode ................................................................. 8
3.4 CR Exp ess’s Ta ge F eigh Ca ego ies ........................................................ 10
3.5 CR Exp ess as he P e e ed Choice ............................................................. 11
3.6 O he Geog aphic Ma ke s o CR Exp ess ..................................................... 12
4. SUPPLY OF INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CR EXPRESS
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ................................................................................... 13
4.1 In as uc u e .................................................................................................. 13
4.2 Ope a ions ...................................................................................................... 14
4.3 In es men Oppo uni ies ............................................................................... 15
REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 17
ADBI Wo king Pape 1434 M. Bena d e al.
1
1. INTRODUCTION TO CR EXPRESS
AND ITS RAPID GROWTH
1.1 CR Exp ess’s Poli ical Signi icance, Economic Impac ,
and En i onmen al Bene i s
Since i s es ablishmen in 2011, China Railway (CR) Exp ess has apidly e ol ed in o
a dynamic c oss-bo de con aine ized ailway eigh se ice linking he People’s
Republic o China (he ea e e e ed o as “ he PRC”) wi h Cen al Asia and Eu ope.
This logis ics se ice spans a subs an ial po ion o he Eu asian con inen , es ablishing
i sel as a globally acknowledged public logis ics p oduc . CR Exp ess e i alized he
his o ical Eu asia in e con inen al ailways and enhanced c oss-bo de connec i i y,
demons a ing signi ican poli ical, economic, and en i onmen al bene i s.
Poli ically, he incep ion o CR Exp ess was spea headed by China Railway, he na ion’s
leading passenge and eigh ail oad co po a ion. This ini ia i e holds signi ican s a u e
as a lagship p ojec wi hin he PRC’s Bel and Road Ini ia i e (BRI). CR Exp ess se es
as a pi o al pla o m aligned wi h he PRC’s s a egic goal
o expedi ing he accessibili y o i s inland ci ies. The o e a ching objec i es include
he p omo ion o ade acili a ion, os e ing coope a ion, emb acing openness and
inclusi i y, encou aging mu ual lea ning, and os e ing mu ual bene i . No ably, his
endea o mi o s he PRC’s escala ing commi men o engaging in in e na ional
go e nance.
Gi en he collabo a i e na u e o CR Exp ess ope a ions ac oss mul iple coun ies, i s
de elopmen eme ges as an in aluable oppo uni y o he PRC o play a cons uc i e
ole in op imizing he global supply chain. The COVID-19 pandemic u he unde sco ed
he i al ole played by CR Exp ess in s abilizing in e na ional supply chains. In pa icula ,
du ing a pe iod when ai and ma i ime anspo aced subs an ial dis up ions, CR
Exp ess p o ed ins umen al in ensu ing he imely deli e y o c i ical p o ec i e supplies
(Na ional De elopmen and Re o m Commission (NDRC), China Railway Exp ess
De elopmen Repo 2021).
Economically, CR Exp ess is a ca alys o ad ancing mu ual economic in e es s by
os e ing enhanced in as uc u e connec i i y—a p ecu so o p ospe i y. I no only
deepens he business collabo a ions be ween he PRC and Eu ope bu also plays
a pi o al ole in upli ing he as inland a eas o Eu asia h ough heigh ened
ade oppo uni ies. Ac ing as a s a egic d i e , CR Exp ess accele a es hin e land
de elopmen and acili a es indus ial agglome a ion.
The economic landscape in he PRC is unde going a ans o ma i e shi , ma ked
by he eloca ion o p oduc ion om coas al o cen al and wes e n p o inces. This
shi demands an e icien in e con inen al anspo a ion mode o o e come inland
bo lenecks, a ole CR Exp ess adep ly ul ills. Fu he mo e, CR Exp ess di ec ly
suppo s he PRC’s economic e olu ion, aiding he ansi ion om low alue-added
manu ac u ing o he p oduc ion o highe - alue goods. These goods equi e a deli e y
mode ha is as e and mo e eliable han ma i ime bu mo e cos -e ec i e han ai
anspo a ion. The ailway mode, exempli ied by CR Exp ess, eme ges as he p e e ed
solu ion, o e ing educed lead imes and heigh ened supply chain e iciency.
ADBI Wo king Pape 1434 M. Bena d e al.
2
Beyond i s ans o ma i e economic ole, CR Exp ess in oduces new in es men
oppo uni ies, including collabo a i e con aine -sha ing ini ia i es and in es men s in
logis ics p ope ies. In essence, CR Exp ess anscends me e anspo a ion, becoming
a dynamic o ce shaping economic dynamics and os e ing p omising a enues
o in es men .
En i onmen ally, ail s ands ou as a sus ainable modal choice o mo ing eigh
be ween he PRC and Eu ope, as i emi s he lowes ca bon emissions when compa ed
o ma i ime, ai , and oad anspo a ion. This is well aligned wi h he g een de elopmen
goals ad oca ed by bo h he Eu opean Union (EU) and he PRC. Addi ionally, CR
Exp ess’s u u e ope a ions will likely in ol e mo e cold-chain
logis ics and digi aliza ion, which a e key d i ing o ces o echnological inno a ions and
en i onmen al bene i s, u he solidi ying he ailway’s ole in os e ing a
g eene u u e.
1.2 Mul ila e al Coope a ion
The apid g ow h o CR Exp ess has spu ed collabo a ion among a ious playe s along
he PRC–EU eigh ail alue chain. Wi hin his collabo a i e amewo k, pla o m
companies, which in he PRC a e ypically s a e-owned en e p ises suppo ed by
municipal go e nmen s, assume a pi o al ole (Figu e 1).
Figu e 1: Type o Playe s in he PRC–EU F eigh Rail Value Chain
Sou ce: AIIB analysis.
Pla o m companies a e expanding hei alue chain, ansi ioning om s op- o-s op
se ices o comp ehensi e doo - o-doo solu ions. They di e en ia e hemsel es by
o e ing high-quali y alue-added se ices, including less han con aine load (LCL), cold
chain, and e icien cus oms clea ance o cap u e a la ge ma ke sha e. Emphasizing
cus ome expe ience enhancemen , hey le e age digi aliza ion o imp o e ope a ional
e iciency and es ablish a global ne wo k o p oac i e cus ome in e ac ion and issue
esolu ion.
Fo ailway companies and s a ion ope a ing companies, alliances a e cul i a ed
o os e mul ila e al coope a ion and s anda diza ion. Fo ins ance, in Oc obe 2017,
a join wo king g oup on CR Exp ess was es ablished by he na ional ailway companies
o he PRC, Bela us, Ge many, Kazakhs an, Mongolia, Poland, and he Russian
Fede a ion.
Logis ics companies and o wa de s o ge deepe collabo a ions wi h pla o m
companies, es ablishing mu ually bene icial ela ionships as bo h cus ome s and se ice
p o ide s. They also in es in CR Exp ess- ela ed in as uc u e, such as s a ions and
locomo i es, o acili a e business expansion. Global-leading companies like DHL, DB
Schenke , and Mae sk ac i ely ake pa in he campaign as CR Exp ess is widely
ecognized.
ADBI Wo king Pape 1434 M. Bena d e al.
3
The PRC conside s CR Exp ess s a egically impo an . Mos pla o m companies
in he PRC a e s a e-owned and suppo ed by go e nmen subsidies, e lec ing he semi-
ma ke ized na u e o CR Exp ess. Ne e heless, na ional-le el policies a e gea ed
owa d s ee ing he de elopmen o CR Exp ess owa ds a highe deg ee o
ma ke iza ion. The ela ionships among he PRC’s go e nmen , China Railway, and
pla o m companies a e illus a ed in Figu e 2.
Figu e 2: Rela ionships among Go e nmen , China Railway,
and Pla o m Companies
* China Railway’s subcompany China Railway In e na ional Mul imode T anspo a ion Co. L d. (CRIMT) o e sees he CR
Exp ess business.
Sou ce: AIIB analysis.
Na ional go e nmen like he NDRC and he Minis y o T anspo a ion p o ides policy
suppo and high-le el guidance. P o incial go e nmen s, municipal go e nmen s, and
economic de elopmen zones a e he majo sou ces o subsidies.
Pla o m companies may be s a e-owned en e p ises o ail ope a o s ac ing on
behal o China Railway. Fo ins ance, while ce ain en i ies like he Xi’an In e na ional
Hub solely p o ide s anda d s op- o-s op anspo a ion, o he s such as Zhengzhou
In e na ional Hub and Chongqing In e na ional Hub o e addi ional alue-added se ices
like doo - o-doo deli e y and cus oms decla a ion.
China Railway,1 as a s a e-owned en e p ise, p o ides c ucial in as uc u e, ac ion,
and wagons, and de e mines a i policies. I plays a pi o al ole in planning he numbe
o eigh ips in each ci y, p ocessing applica ions om pla o m companies
o o mula e annual and mon hly CR Exp ess ope a ional plans. Addi ionally, i
collabo a es wi h o eign na ional ailway companies o synch onize ope a ional plans.
The subsidy s uc u e and o al subsidy amoun s a y ac oss di e en ci ies, wi h
pla o m companies ypically adop ing compe i ion-o ien ed p icing s a egies o main ain
compe i i eness. Consequen ly, hose wi h subs an ial go e nmen subsidies enjoy
no able p icing ad an ages, he eby in luencing hei compe i i e posi ioning in he
ma ke .
1 The China Railway’s sub-company China Railway In e na ional Mul imode T anspo a ion Co. (CRIMT) is
in cha ge o he CR Exp ess business.
ADBI Wo king Pape 1434 M. Bena d e al.
4
1.3 Rapid G ow h
Since i s incep ion in 2011, he CR Exp ess ma ke has unde gone ema kable g ow h
and is an icipa ed o main ain a consis en upwa d ajec o y in he long e m. As he
phased educ ion o subsidies is unde way, CR Exp ess is ansi ioning owa d a mo e
ma ke -o ien ed ope a ional model. This e olu ion is expec ed o in oduce some ola ili y
in he sho e m, cha ac e ized by a g adual decline in he g ow h a e. Ne e heless,
he long- e m ou look emains op imis ic, d i en by he pe sis en demand o speci ic
p oduc s and an inc easing cus ome accep ance.
By he end o Sep embe 2023, CR Exp ess had execu ed an imp essi e o al o 78,000
ips be ween he PRC and Eu ope, anspo ing 7.4 million wen y- oo equi alen uni s
(TEUs) o goods, and es ablishing connec ions wi h 217 ci ies in
25 Eu opean coun ies (NDRC 10 Oc obe 2023). The numbe o ain ips soa ed om
17 in 2011 o 16,562 in 2022, ma king a no able compound annual g ow h a e (CAGR)
o 86%. Co espondingly, he eigh olume su ged om 1,000 TEUs in 2011 o
1,614,000 TEUs in 2022, e lec ing a compelling CAGR o 96% (Figu e 3).
Figu e 3: Numbe o T ips and F eigh Volume o PRC–Eu ope Railway Exp ess
F eigh T ains (2011–2022)
TEU = Twen y- oo equi alen uni .
Sou ce: The S a e Council In o ma ion O ice o he People’s Republic o China: The Bel and Road Ini ia i e:
A Key Pilla o he Global Communi y o Sha ed Fu u e, Oc obe 2023 (h p://www.scio.go .cn/gxz /d z /49518/
32678/index.h ml [accessed 11 Oc obe 2023]).
Se e al ac o s ha e con ibu ed signi ican ly o he ema kable g ow h o CR Exp ess.
Fi s , a o able policy suppo laid he g oundwo k o i s expansion, wi h go e nmen
subsidies playing a c ucial ole in os e ing a conduci e ma ke en i onmen . Addi ional
suppo , including subs an ial in as uc u e in es men s and s eamlined cus oms
clea ance p ocedu es, has u he p opelled i s apid de elopmen . While subsidies a e
on a downwa d end, ongoing policy suppo is expec ed o emain pi o al, di e si ying
o adap o he e ol ing needs o CR Exp ess.
ADBI Wo king Pape 1434 M. Bena d e al.
11
Figu e 8: Ta ge Ca ego ies o CR Exp ess ( om he PRC o EU)a
EU = Eu opean Union.
a High-end u ni u e and machine ies a e conside ed high- alue ca go.
Sou ce: AIIB analysis.
Fueled by a consump ion upg ade, he e is a su ging demand om Chinese consume s
o p oduc s associa ed wi h cold chain logis ics, c oss-bo de e-comme ce, and o he
mid- o high-end p oduc s. Addi ionally, pha maceu ical p oduc s a e also eme ging wi h
s ong g ow h po en ial, sui able o CR Exp ess anspo .
O e all, he a ge goods o CR Exp ess a e expec ed o be mo e di e si ied wi h mo e
mid- o high-end goods, p o iding a s ong demand base o CR Exp ess g ow h.
3.5 CR Exp ess as he P e e ed Choice
Based on eedback om CR Exp ess’s cus ome s, i ’s e iden ha CR Exp ess is apidly
e ol ing in o a c i ical anspo a ion channel in he Eu asian eigh anspo sys em.
E en hough p ices a e an icipa ed o ise in he u u e due o he educ ion o subsidies,
he demand o CR Exp ess is unlikely o wane as long as i main ains i s epu a ion o
deli e ing consis en ly high le els o se ices.
Ou in e iews wi h CR Exp ess’s p ima y cus ome s ha e highligh ed he ollowing
ad an ages and p omising p ospec s:
Fo wa de s’ iews on CR Exp ess ad an ages:
• High eliabili y: Despi e peak season conges ion in ansi and loading zones,
mos CR Exp ess ains adhe e o hei schedules eliably, emaining la gely
una ec ed by ad e se wea he condi ions.
• Sho lead ime: CR Exp ess signi ican ly educes lead imes compa ed o
ma i ime anspo .
ADBI Wo king Pape 1434 M. Bena d e al.
12
• Cos e iciency: In compa ison o ai anspo , CR Exp ess o e s a a mo e
economical op ion. Wi h subsidies in place, i can e en ou compe e ma i ime
anspo . This makes i an ideal choice o p oduc s less sensi i e o shipping
cos s bu in need o swi deli e y.
• En i onmen ally iendly: As a esul o low-ca bon en i onmen al equi emen s
and he economic de elopmen along i s ou es, some po ions o CR Exp ess
a e ope a ed by Eu opean companies, such as Deu sche Bahn. Wi h he g owing
accep ance o CR Exp ess, he p opo ion ope a ed by Eu opean companies is
inc easing.
Fo wa de s’ expec a ions o he u u e:
• Global ailway leade ship: While he PRC may no be as compe i i e in he
ma i ime anspo ma ke , i s ailway sys em anks as a global leade wi h a
p omising u u e.
• Eme ging supply chain channel: Eu asian ail eigh anspo has e ol ed
in o a i al supply chain channel. Despi e i s ela i ely smalle size cu en ly,
i is inc easingly becoming a signi ican conside a ion o o wa de s in hei ou e
planning.
• Role o policy and ma ke demand: Policies con inue o d i e he g ow h o CR
Exp ess, bu ma ke demand is also on he ise. Rigid demand is g adually aking
shape, especially o p oduc s like machine y, elec onic i ems, clo hing, and
o he high- alue goods.
• New demand d i e s: The ise o c oss-bo de e-comme ce and he need o cold-
chain logis ics a e expec ed o gene a e new demand o CR Exp ess in he
u u e.
• G owing pa icipa ion: CR Exp ess is a ac ing a g owing numbe o pa icipan s,
and hey a e ac i ely explo ing he oppo uni ies i p esen s.
In summa y, CR Exp ess is on he pa h o becoming a key playe in he global logis ics
landscape, d i en by i s imp essi e eliabili y and e iciency, as well as he e ol ing
needs and expec a ions o he ma ke and i s pa icipan s.
3.6 O he Geog aphic Ma ke s o CR Exp ess
Beyond he EU, he PRC also ades wi h ASEAN, he Russian Fede a ion, and Cen al
Asia. Rail anspo , a key mode o anspo a ion in he PRC’s ade wi h Cen al Asia
and he Russian Fede a ion o e he las ew decades, is expec ed o main ain a
ela i ely s able sha e in hese egions. Howe e , when i comes o ade be ween he
PRC and ASEAN, he demand o ail anspo emains limi ed.
Fo Cen al Asia, ail anspo was in ope a ion long be o e he eme gence o CR
Exp ess and has played a pi o al ole in acili a ing ade wi h he PRC o e he las ew
decades. Al hough Cen al Asia ep esen s a ela i ely modes po ion o he PRC’s o al
o eign ade, he ade be ween he PRC and Cen al Asia p esen s an upwa d end
wi h la ge luc ua ions, and s eady g ow h could be expec ed gi en ela i ely s able
poli ical clima es and apid economic g ow h. CR Exp ess is well posi ioned o p o ide
mo e se ices o his egion.
ADBI Wo king Pape 1434 M. Bena d e al.
13
ASEAN o e ook he EU as he PRC’s op ade pa ne in 2020 and has main ained i s
op posi ion since hen. Howe e , he demand o CR Exp ess in he PRC–ASEAN ade
emains limi ed, as i does no o e signi ican ad an ages o e sea anspo . As a esul ,
subs an ial g ow h in he sho e m is challenging o he PRC–ASEAN ou e. Fu u e
s a egic di ec ions may in ol e explo ing mul imodal anspo a ion op ions o connec
ASEAN wi h he PRC and he EU. The deg ee o policy suppo will also be a key ac o
in he de elopmen o he PRC–ASEAN ou e.
4. SUPPLY OF INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CR EXPRESS
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
4.1 In as uc u e
The apid expansion o CR Exp ess has been me wi h in as uc u e limi a ions
and ope a ional challenges, leading o delays and conce ns abou u u e g ow h.
Howe e , wi h comp ehensi e in as uc u e upg ade plans and he de elopmen
o s anda diza ion and digi aliza ion, we an icipa e a subs an ial inc ease in CR Exp ess’s
capaci y, po en ially exceeding ou imes he cu en olume o e he nex 10 o 20
yea s.
Se e al c i ical in as uc u e cons ain s ha e become appa en along he CR Exp ess
ou es, which, when a ge ed o imp o emen , can signi ican ly enhance capaci y
wi hou necessi a ing subs an ial in es men s:
a. Po o Bela us–Małaszewicze (Bela usian–Polish bo de ): This bo leneck is one
o he mos signi ican , a ec ing nea ly all CR Exp ess ou es. The Polish side
p ocesses ewe han 14 ains daily, causing peak- ime delays o 5 o 10 days.
While logis ics p o ide s a e explo ing al e na i e po s, hese a e s ill in hei
nascen s ages. In 2019, he o al u iliza ion a e o all po s en e ing he EU s ood
a 24%. The in oduc ion o addi ional po s could no ably inc ease CR Exp ess
capaci y.
b. O e loaded ailways and insu icien olling s ock supply in Cen al Asia and he
Russian Fede a ion: In 2020, a sho age o olling s ock in Kazakhs an and he
Russian Fede a ion esul ed in block ain conges ions and cancella ions in
loca ions like Ala au, Ho gos, and Manchu ia. The T ans-Sibe ian Railway is
close o i s ope a ional limi s, wi h a cap o 2.5 o 3 million TEUs pe yea , and
ex eme wea he condi ions u he complica e he si ua ion.
c. Capaci y limi a ions in Chinese logis ics hubs: Key logis ics hubs in he PRC a e
g appling wi h capaci y es ic ions. These limi a ions include Xi’an (3,000 ains
pe yea ), Zhengzhou (1,800 ains pe yea ), Chengdu (1 million TEUs pe yea ,
including domes ic ailways), and Wuhan (500 ains pe yea ).
To unlock he po en ial o CR Exp ess o quad uple i s capaci y by 2040, a collabo a i e
e o in ol ing ele an coun ies, indus y associa ions, and se ice p o ide s is
essen ial. The ou old capaci y inc ease is a conse a i e es ima e,
as i p ima ily pe ains o upg ading exis ing, well-es ablished ou es. I new ou es
be de eloped, mo e capaci y could be added. Examples o majo imp o emen
p ojec s include:
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a. Małaszewicze S a ion Imp o emen :
• Poland S a e Railways, a dominan ailway ope a o , plans o expand he
s a ion, inc easing daily passages om 14 o 55 by 2028. S o age capaci y
will ise om 2.5 million o 15+ million TEUs by 2026.
• The explo a ion o al e na i e po s, such as Kalining ad, is conside ed a
iable op ion. Howe e , hei imma u i y and po en ial sensi i i y o poli ical
ac o s need o be aken in o accoun .
a. Railway Upg ades in Cen al Asia:
• Kazakhs an is implemen ing ex ensi e na ional in as uc u e p ojec s ha will
enable a en old inc ease in ansi anspo capaci y by 2050.
b. Explo a ion o he New Middle Co ido Rou e:
• A po ion o he Middle Co ido emains in i s ea ly s ages o de elopmen .
The BTK ailway (Baku–Tbilisi–Ka s), comple ed in 2017, p esen s a ecen
addi ion. The explo a ion o new co ido s will be especially sensi i e o
subsidy educ ions due o hei high ope a ional isks.
4.2 Ope a ions
On he ope a ions slide, insu icien s anda diza ion, echnical limi a ions, and
manage ial issues also pose challenges.
a. Insu icien s anda diza ion. Di e en coun ies along he ou es a e equi ed o
use local cus oms codes, and adap ing o di e en sys ems is bo h ime- and
cos -consuming. In addi ion, he billing o lading s ill lacks s anda diza ion,
making i ha d o de elop p ope y igh and de i a i e unc ions such as p oo o
shipmen insu ance o logis ics inancing.
E o s o imp o emen include: 1) The cus oms clea ance p ocess has been
educed o 4 hou s, 2 hou s, and 1 hou espec i ely in he EU, he Russian
Fede a ion, and he PRC. 2) The CIM/SMGS (CIM – Uni o m Rules Conce ning
he Con ac o In e na ional Ca iage o Goods by Rail; SMGS – The Ag eemen
on In e na ional Goods T anspo by Rail) consignmen has been widely used in
CR Exp ess since 2017, showing he po en ial o emo e egula o y
disc epancies. 3) Some pla o m companies a e pilo ing ials o logis ics
inancing.
b. Technical limi a ions. The a ge clien s o CR Exp ess, especially hose in
he EU, pay a lo o a en ion o supply chain s abili y and isibili y. Howe e , due
o he complexi y o mul imode anspo a ion, he p ocesses s ill lack
eal- ime isibili y. The digi aliza ion o ail ope a ions is insu icien compa ed
o o he anspo a ion modes. Online paymen sys ems o ail a e ye o be ully
de eloped.
E o s o imp o emen include: The Global Posi ioning Sys em (GPS) and
empe a u e-con ol de ices a e used by some ope a o s bu no on a la ge scale.
Meanwhile, oday’s solu ions ocus mainly on loca ions, s ill lacking
eal- ime in o ma ion on shipmen s a us (e.g., cus oms clea ance, gauge
con e sion).
c. Se ice issues. The se ice le el lagged behind de eloped economies. Many
ma ke s alongside he ou es had subop imal logis ics se ices, sco ing
pa icula ly low in cus oms clea ance p ocedu es, acco ding o he Wo ld Bank.
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Many belie e ha he conges ion in Małaszewicze is caused no only by
in as uc u e limi a ions bu also se ice issues.
E o s o imp o emen include: The logis ics se ice p o ide s a e s i ing o
imp o e hei se ices. Some p o ide s ha e dedica ed o e seas eams o deal
wi h possible unexpec ed condi ions.
4.3 In es men Oppo uni ies
Gi en he in as uc u e limi a ions and ope a ions challenges, he e a e many
in es men oppo uni ies o cons uc , mode nize, and upg ade ail in as uc u e, and o
adop o de elop new echnologies and digi al solu ions.
On he ail in as uc u e side, in es men oppo uni ies include:
a. Po
• Po capaci y enla gemen :
o Duisbu g: in ol ed in 30% o he PRC–EU ade, Duisbu g Po aces
space limi a ions, p ocessing up o 50 ains pe week (o which 35–40
a e wi h he PRC). Expansion o 100 PRC-bound ains pe week is
planned.
• Sma po s:
o Sys em upda e and bes p ac ices include op ical cha ac e ecogni ion
(OCR), au oma ed guided ehicles (AGVs), eal- ime na iga ion, e c.
b. Railway
• Railway capaci y enla gemen :
o T ans-Sibe ian Railway: almos o e loaded wi h a limi o 2.5 o 3 million
TEUs pe yea . Mode niza ion p ojec would be in p og ess un il 2035.
o Middle Co ido : BTK Railway’s capaci y is expec ed o g ow, ye he
expansion plan has been s ymied by he poli ical clima e, and by public
esis ance in coun ies alongside.
• Mode niza ion:
o Railway speed up: some ail lines in Eu ope ha e been in ope a ion o a
long ime and possess low e iciency. Railway speed alls o only 18 km/h
en e ing he EU.
o G eeni ica ion: eplace diesel wi h elec ici y powe ed by enewable
ene gy, such as wind (e.g., he Ne he lands) and sola (e.g., I aly, UK).
On he echnology side, he e a e also in es men oppo uni ies o digi aliza ion,
including online sys ems, in elligen decision-making, and in o ma ion sha ing.
a. Online sys ems:
• Au oma ion: o de p ocessing has no been ully au oma ed. Online paymen
is s ill in i s ea ly s age o de elopmen .
• Real- ime isibili y: GPS and empe a u e-con ol de ices ha e no
been used on a la ge scale. Today’s solu ions ocus mainly on loca ions,
lacking eal- ime in o ma ion on shipmen s a us (e.g., cus oms clea ance,
gauge con e sion).
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b. Da a analy ics:
• P edic i e main enance: using senso s o collec eal- ime da a and
iden i ying epai needs a e in he ea ly s age. The e is also a need o
cen alize a ious measu emen s o make he main enance p ocesses
mo e e icien .
• In elligen decision-making based on big da a and AI applica ion (e.g., sma
ne wo ks and line planning, business o ecas ing, si e selec ion planning,
scheduling, ou e op imiza ion).
c. In o ma ion sha ing:
• One window o da a deli e y: es ablish an in e connec ed ecosys em
and uni o mly ecognized da a ne wo k in ol ing all he pa icipan s ( ail
ope a o s, eigh o wa de s, po s and e minals, cus oms au ho i ies, e c.)
o p omo e in o ma ion sha ing, educe duplica ed pape wo k, inc ease bill o
lading s anda diza ion, and inc ease e iciency.
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