Becke , Mal e; Heidland, Tobias
A icle
Geopoli ical ensions and mig a ion
Vie eljah eshe e zu A bei s- und Wi scha s o schung (VAW)
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Ins i u A bei und Wi scha (IAW), Uni e si ä B emen / A bei nehme kamme B emen
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Becke , Mal e; Heidland, Tobias (2025) : Geopoli ical ensions and mig a ion,
Vie eljah eshe e zu A bei s- und Wi scha s o schung (VAW), ISSN 2942-1470, Duncke &
Humblo , Be lin, Vol. 2, Iss. 1, pp. 23-35,
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Duncke & Humblo · Be lin
Geopoli ical Tensions and Mig a ion
By Mal e Becke * and Tobias Heidland**
Summa y
In his pape , we examine he complex ela ionship be ween geopoli ical ensions and
mig a ion, de eloping a amewo k o explo e how hese dynamics shape each o he . We
a gue ha geopoli ical isks– such as wa s, e o ism, and in e na ional dispu es– a e e-
la ed in h ee ways o mig a ion: Risks a ec ing he de e minan s o mig a ion decisions,
he e e se channel o mig a ion in luencing geopoli ical isks, and he di ec use o mi-
g a ion as a geopoli ical ool. We hen discuss he ansmission channels and how coun y
cha ac e is ics can a ec he s eng h o e ec s. We highligh ha geopoli ical isks likely
esul in g ea e i egula mig a ion and displacemen in he long un and emphasize he
impo ance o c oss-coun y coope a ion.
Zusammen assung
Dieses Papie un e such die komplexe Beziehung zwischen geopoli ischen Spannun-
gen und Mig a ion. Wi en wickeln ein F amewo k, das die Wechselwi kungen zwischen
den beiden Komponen en besch eib und zeigen au , dass geopoli ische Risiken wie K ie-
ge, Te o ismus und in e na ionale Kon lik e übe d ei Kanäle mi Mig a ion e bunden
sind: indem Geopoli ische Risiken die De e minan en on Mig a ionsen scheidungen be-
ein lussen; indem Mig a ion geopoli ische Risiken beein luss ; und indem Mig a ion di-
ek als geopoli isches Ins umen genu z wi d. Anschließend e ö e n wi die möglichen
Ausp ägungen diese Kanäle und disku ie en, inwiewei sie on e schiedenen Lände -
Cha ak e is ika abhängen. Wi a gumen ie en, dass geopoli ische Risiken länge is ig
mi hohe Wah scheinlichkei in meh i egulä e Mig a ion und Ve eibung münde
und be onen die Bedeu ung lände übe g ei ende Koope a ion.
JEL classi ica ion: F22, F51, O15
Keywo ds: Mig a ion, Geopoli ics, In e na ional Rela ions
* Mal e Becke , Heidelbe g Ins i u e o Global Heal h, S an o d Uni e si y, email:
mal ebe@s an o d.edu
** Tobias Heidland, Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy, Kiel Uni e si y, IZA (co -
esponding au ho ), email: obias.h[email p o ec ed]
Vie eljah eshe e zu A bei s- und Wi scha s o schung 2 (2025) 1: 23 – 35
h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ aw.2025.1457603
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DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ aw.2025.1457603 | Gene a ed on 2025-05-19 12:47:02
24 Mal e Becke and Tobias Heidland
Vie eljah eshe e zu A bei s- und Wi scha s o schung, 2 (2025) 1
1. In oduc ion
Geopoli ics and mig a ion a e majo opics in he cu en poli ical deba e, bu
so a , he e has been li le sys ema ic analysis o how he wo in e ac . To ill
his gap, we p o ide a concep ual amewo k o help unde s and he complex
ela ionship.
Th oughou he pape , we a e going o hink abou geopoli ical ensions in
hei mani es a ion as geopoli ical isk, which Calda a and Iaco iello (2022) de-
ine as “ he h ea , ealiza ion, and escala ion o ad e se e en s associa ed wi h
wa s, e o ism, and any ensions among s a es and poli ical ac o s ha a ec
he peace ul cou se o in e na ional ela ions”. This b oad de ini ion highligh s
he many o ms ha geopoli ical isk can ake. I can ange om isola ed, one-
ime e en s o e ongoing ensions all he way o iolen con lic be ween coun-
ies, egions, o o he poli ical ac o s. Calda a and Iaco iello gi e se e al exam-
ples o episodes o high geopoli ical isk in he pas , including he Pa is e o is
a acks, he No h Ko ean c isis, he wa in Uk aine, and he in asion o Libya.
Whe he and whe e o mig a e is one o he mos impo an choices o make
in li e. People ake a o wa d-looking pe spec i e, which is in o med by hei
pas and cu en expe iences, and closely linked o geopoli ical ensions in wo
ways. Fi s , geopoli ical isk may a ec di e en de e minan s o mig a ion, o
example, by leading o iolen con lic and poli ical ins abili y, o by impac ing
he economic condi ions in hos and o igin coun ies (Mayda 2010). Second,
mig a ion lows can in luence geopoli ical ensions. Mig a ion can c ea e links
o ensions be ween hos and o igin coun ies, depending on he na u e o he
mig a ion lows (Pa son and Vézina 2018; Leblang and Pe e s 2020) and e en be
used delibe a ely as an ins umen in geopoli ics. T ansi coun ies ha can con-
ol mig a ion lows may use hem as a ba gaining chip in in e na ional poli ics.
In he ollowing, we discuss di e en channels and discuss unde which condi-
ions geopoli ical isk could inc ease mig a ion.
2. The E ec on he De e minan s o Mig a ion
Geopoli ical isk may a ec mig a ion by impac ing he de e minan s o mi-
g a ion and he capabili ies o mig a e. De e minan s a e he easons o mig a-
ion, o en simpli ied o push and pull ac o s (Mayda 2010). Capabili ies a e he
abili y o implemen he mig a ion plan (De Haas 2021). Examples o push ac-
o s a e con lic s, poli ical pe secu ion, and absolu e po e y. O en, whe he a
ac o is a ele an de e minan o mig a ion does no only depend on i s le el
in he o igin o des ina ion coun y, espec i ely. Wha ma e s a e he di e en-
ials be ween bo h, as in he case o he as di e ence in li ing condi ions be-
ween o igin and des ina ion coun ies. Few people would mig a e in o a wa
zone unless he si ua ion a home is e en wo se. Capabili ies, by con as , in-
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Geopoli ical Tensions and Mig a ion 25
Vie eljah eshe e zu A bei s- und Wi scha s o schung, 2 (2025) 1
clude aspec s such as he a ailabili y o wo k isas, how isky a mig a ion is, and
he economic means o a o d i . The dis inc ion be ween aspi a ions and capa-
bili ies is c ucial, especially du ing c ises. Hi by nega i e shocks, many people
only mig a e wi hin hei coun y o o igin because hey lack he capabili ies o
go ab oad. This can mean ha high aspi a ions o in e na ional mig a ion only
esul in apid u baniza ion. I can also mean ha , due o a lack o capabili ies o
mig a e in e na ionally legally, bad li ing condi ions esul in li le in e na ional
mig a ion un il people become willing o conside al e na i e ypes o coping
s a egies such as i egula mig a ion (c . he sudden in lux o Sy ian o he EU
om 2013, see Böhme e al. 2020).
We b oadly dis inguish be ween he e ec s o geopoli ical isk on he de e mi-
nan s o mig a ion h ough he secu i y channel, such as poli ical ins abili y o
iolen con lic , h ough he economic channel, o example, due o economic
sanc ions, and h ough he policy channel, such as isa es ic ions. All h ee
channels can ope a e in o igin and des ina ion coun ies, po en ially a ec ing
push, pull, and capabili ies simul aneously.
2.1 The Secu i y Channel
The secu i y channel cap u es poli ical ins abili y and, in he wo s case, io-
len con lic esul ing om geopoli ical ensions. Bo h poli ical ins abili y and
iolen con lic a e s ong p edic o s o ou -mig a ion, ypically in he o m o
o ced displacemen and wi h sho - o medium- e m e ec s on lows (Boss
e al. 2024). Gene ally, he as majo i y o e ugees emain in neighbo ing e-
gions wi hin o jus ou side he coun y o o igin because hey lack he means
(and some imes he will) o mig a e a . As isks a e pa icula ly acu e in low-
and middle-income coun ies, hese egions hos he mos displaced people
(De ic o e al. 2021; F ansen and De Haas 2022). The second-o de e ec s on
he wel a e o becoming o cibly displaced a e, on a e age, ex emely nega i e:
Re ugees ace la ge educ ions in consump ion, physical capi al, and human
capi al (Aygün e al. 2024; Fiala 2015; Ibáñez and Vélez 2008). Mig a ion esul -
ing om geopoli ical ensions can hus ha e g ea dis ibu ional consequences
e en in he e y long un (c . G os eld and Zhu a skaya 2015; Bukowski 2019).
While p edominan ly a ec ing o igin coun y ou comes, i. e., push ac o s, he
secu i y channel can also a ec pull ac o s in des ina ion coun ies. Secu i y
conce ns a ising om geopoli ical ensions can lead o public backlash agains
immig an s (Alesina and Tabellini 2024), po en ially making ce ain des ina ion
coun ies less a ac i e o immig an s. Fo example, di e en s udies show ha
e o is a acks can lead o mo e nega i e a i udes owa d immig a ion inside
and ou side o a ec ed coun ies (Helbling and Meie ieks 2022). These a e ex-
amples o wha can well be seen as a b oade channel whe e ensions be ween
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26 Mal e Becke and Tobias Heidland
Vie eljah eshe e zu A bei s- und Wi scha s o schung, 2 (2025) 1
coun ies will a ec he accep ance o mig an s om ce ain coun ies, wi h e-
pe cussions o hei in eg a ion p ospec s and, in u n, economic ou comes
(S einha d 2018; Schilling and S illman 2024) and u u e immig a ion (F iebel
e al. 2013).
2.2 The Economic Channel
The economic channel desc ibes he impac ha geopoli ical ensions ha e on
dele e economic ou comes. Geopoli ical isk is associa ed wi h lowe GDP
g ow h, dec eases in employmen , and a highe p obabili y o economic disas e
(Calda a and Iaco iello 2022), all po en ial push ac o s. The economic e ec s
can be delibe a e when coun ies use sanc ions, a common policy ool in imes
o geopoli ical isk, o indi ec as seen in he ood p ice spike in he Middle Eas
and la ge pa s o A ica ha ollowed Russia’s ull-scale in asion o Uk aine
and he subsequen all in g ain and ege able oil expo s (Balma e al. 2024).
These dec ease inancial lows and de elopmen aid, ade, and g ow h, wi h
pe sis en and long-las ing e ec s on a ge ed coun ies’ economy and li ing
condi ions (Mo gan e al. 2023; Neuenki ch and Neumeie 2016). Howe e ,
no e ha he economic e ec s o geopoli ical isk can also c ea e winne s (Mo -
gan e al. 2023), who become ela i ely mo e a ac i e des ina ion coun ies.
Financial lows and ade may be di e ed o new pa ne s, as was he case o
sanc ions on Russia. The sanc ions c ea ed la ge inc eases in ade om he
Wes wi h Tu key and se e al cen al Asian s a es, which hen channel he sanc-
ioned goods o Russia. I is unlikely ha his conc e e case has di ec ly led o
la ge measu able employmen e ec s in he espec i e coun ies. Howe e , eco-
nomic spillo e s wi hin he coun y may lead o some Cen al Asian coun ies
expe iencing less ou mig a ion.
In o igin coun ies o mig a ion, he ne e ec s o economic shocks on ou mi-
g a ion a e ambiguous. On he one hand, ad e se economic shocks may de-
c ease he oppo uni y cos o mig a ion, pushing people o lea e hei homes;
on he o he , hey may inc ease liquidi y cons ain s o pay o cos ly mig a ion,
dec easing people’s mig a ion capabili ies (Bazzi 2017). The same applies o pos-
i i e economic shocks ha can esul om geopoli ical isks, such as inc eases in
de elopmen aid. These can dec ease push ac o s in he sho e m bu inc ease
mig a ion capabili ies in he long e m. The empi ical li e a u e inds e idence
o bo h channels (Cai 2020; Clemens and Mendola 2024; Fuchs e al. 2023;
G öge and Zylbe be g 2016; Kleemans and Mag ude 2018). Which e ec
domina es may depend on many ac o s, o example, he na u e and pe sis ence
o he income shock (Bazzi 2017) and whe e people a e loca ed in he income
dis ibu ion (Clemens 2014).
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Geopoli ical Tensions and Mig a ion 27
Vie eljah eshe e zu A bei s- und Wi scha s o schung, 2 (2025) 1
In des ina ion coun ies, geopoli ical isk can lead o economic down u ns,
dec easing pull ac o s, such as he e u ns o mig a ion (Mayda 2010; O ega
and Pe i 2013). I is well-es ablished ha economic shocks a he des ina ion
s ongly in luence mig a ion decisions (G öge 2021; McKenzie e al. 2014),
leading o an expec ed dec ease in immig a ion. Again, he pull side o he eco-
nomic channel can ha e second-o de e ec s. Nega i e economic shocks in des-
ina ion coun ies can dec ease emi ances, educing households’ mig a ion ca-
pabili ies and wel a e in o igin coun ies (Caballe o e al. 2023; Yang 2008).
The impo ance o he economic channel will di e s ongly depending on
how closely a ec ed coun ies a e in eg a ed in o he wo ld economy. Coun ies
ha a e closely connec ed will be hi ha de by economic and inancial sanc-
ions. Mo e sel -su icien coun ies will be less ulne able o ad e se economic
consequences o igina ing ab oad. Howe e , close economic in eg a ion may al-
so ha e bene i s such as allowing as e g ow h h ough ade (F ankel and
Rome 1999). Mo eo e , mig a ion cos s ma e o bo h he secu i y and he
economic channel. I mig a ion cos s a e ela i ely low, geopoli ical ensions can
induce la ge mig a ion lows, o example, du ing he wa in Uk aine. High mi-
g a ion cos s, o example, o people in No h Ko ea, keep indi iduals om mi-
g a ing despi e ca as ophic poli ical and economic ci cums ances due o ongo-
ing geopoli ical ensions.
2.3 The Policy Channel
The policy channel desc ibes mig a ion- ela ed policy changes ha a e caused
by geopoli ical ensions. This can happen when coun ies sanc ion opponen s o
ewa d allies (S o elen 2022). The mos widely known case is isa es ic ions,
ypically a ge ed a impo an poli ical and economic ac o s, which can, howe -
e , also ex end o he o e all popula ion and s ongly limi mig a ion capabili ies
in a ec ed coun ies (Sey i e al. 2023). On he o he hand, coun ies may li
mig a ion es ic ions o allies in imes o geopoli ical ensions. New poli ical
pa ne ships a e o en accompanied by easing immig a ion policies. Fo exam-
ple, du ing he ea lie s ages o he EU accession, p ospec i e membe coun ies
bene i om easie immig a ion o he EU o hei ci izens. No e ha he policy
channel also a ec s mig an s in ansi coun ies. Mig an s en ou e o ano he
des ina ion may become s uck he e due o mo e es ic i e mig a ion policies
(de Haas 2021) o may choose hei ou es based on changes in bo de manage-
men (Collye e al. 2012). While he secu i y and economic channels a ec he
easons o mig a ion as well as capabili ies, he policy channel is es ic ed o
he capabili ies and does li le o he unde lying easons o mig a ion.
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28 Mal e Becke and Tobias Heidland
Vie eljah eshe e zu A bei s- und Wi scha s o schung, 2 (2025) 1
3. The E ec s o Mig a ion on Geopoli ics
The e ec s o mig a ion on geopoli ics a e ambiguous. On he one hand, mi-
g a ion can inc ease he economic in e ac ion be ween o igin and des ina ion
coun ies. Se e al s udies ha e shown ha mig a ion inc eases bila e al ade
and o eign di ec in es men (Baha e al. 2022; Mayda e al. 2022; Pa sons and
Vézina 2018). Mig a ion lows can also esul in close poli ical ies, o example,
h ough inc eases in de elopmen coope a ion (Be meo and Leblang 2015;
Clemens and Pos el 2018). Cu en examples include he EU, which, in an e o
o educe i egula mig a ion o Eu ope, suppo ed o yea s he unpopula go -
e nmen o Nige , an impo an ansi hub h ough he Saha a (Weihe e al.
2021). In 2023 alone, Nige ecei ed o e 40million Eu os om he EU (Eu o-
pean Commission 2024). Simila ly, in e es in mig a ion has led some coun ies
o ocus hei ODA s a egies mo e on he coun ies o o igin o mig an s, gi -
ing ise o policy packages such as he EU Eme gency T us Fund o A ica
(Akim and Heidland 2024) o he Roo Causes Policy o Biden Adminis a ion
(Whi ehouse 2021).
On he o he hand, mig a ion can esul in geopoli ical ensions be ween
coun ies. In he case o i egula mig a ion, des ina ion coun ies may hold o -
igin o ansi coun ies esponsible, as happened when he T ump adminis a-
ion s opped mos new o eign assis ance om he US S a e Depa men and he
US Agency o In e na ional De elopmen o se e al Cen al Ame ican s a es,
edi ec ing de elopmen assis ance o o he pa ne coun ies (US GAO 2021).
Immig a ion can also lead o a public backlash among o e s, po en ially e-
sul ing in poli ical ins abili y, o example, in he case o B exi o he ise o
igh -wing pa ies in he Eu opean Union (Ba one e al. 2016; Dus mann e al.
2019; S einmay 2021). A diaspo a whose poli ical iews may, in pa s, be
s ongly shaped by ex eme iews o o igin-coun y leade s (o be pe cei ed as
such), ake, o example, E dogan o Pu in, can add o he po en ially nega i e
e ec s o mig a ion on geopoli ics (Holland e al. 2024; Rozo and Va gas 2021).
Mig a ion may also be used delibe a ely as a di ec ins umen in imes o ge-
opoli ical ensions. The mos widely epo ed ecen example was he case o
Bela us, whe e he s a e made delibe a e a emp s o b ing Middle Eas e n mi-
g an s o he bo de s o i s Eu opean neighbo s, especially Poland, o o ce i -
egula bo de c ossings. These mig an s we e lown di ec ly o Minsk and hen
le close o he bo de wi hou majo supplies, hus s ongly encou aging hem
o c oss in o he EU. This a ai should be iewed as a o m o non-mili a y
p essu e on he Wes e n alliance suppo ing Uk aine by Bela us in he con ex
o he Russian wa on Uk aine. The mo e has led o Poland mos ly suspending
asylum in he coun y, hus c ea ing allou ac oss he EU, which s uggles wi h
ha ing a coo dina ed esponse o he ension be ween p o iding he global pub-
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Geopoli ical Tensions and Mig a ion 29
Vie eljah eshe e zu A bei s- und Wi scha s o schung, 2 (2025) 1
lic good o “ e ugee p o ec ion” and he poli ical, social, and inancial cos s o
doing so. Wi h some coun ies in he block seizing o coope a e, in e nal solu-
ions become less likely, and he EU’s abili y o encou age o he coun ies ou -
side he block o also con ibu e o e ugee p o ec ion dec eases. The example
shows ha using mig a ion as a geopoli ical ins umen can exe in luence on
di e en laye s: domes ic publics and hei suppo o go e nmen s, common
g ound wi hin alliances, and he abili y o p ojec powe on o he s a es. The e -
ec i eness o mig a ion as a geopoli ical ins umen can be inc eased by making
mig a ion a mo e salien issue in poli ics and socie y. The Bela ussian example
is a case in poin . I was delibe a ely in oduced a a ime o g ea poli ical u -
moil in mos Wes e n coun ies a ound mig a ion, some o which was acili a -
ed by Russian campaigns on social media and bank olling o o he wise encou -
aging an i-immig an pa ies. Highly capable coun ies such as Russia hus ha e
he powe o inc ease he e icacy o hei geopoli ical use o mig a ion.
In a less con lic ual a ian , o igin and ansi coun ies can use hei con ol
o e immig an popula ions as ba gaining chips in in e na ional poli ics (Ad-
amson and Tsou apas 2019). An example is he Kha oum P ocess, in which he
EU, he A ican Union, and coun ies in he Ho n o A ica coope a e poli ical-
ly. Coun ies along he mig a o y ou es in he Eas and No h-Eas o A ica,
such as Egyp , can ge suppo such as de elopmen unding and suppo o
o ganiza ions ha manage– i. e., ypically limi – mig a ion lows. These ypes
o coope a ions ha e also been in place be ween he EU and Tu key, whe e in
exchange o suppo in hos ing e ugees om Sy ia, Tu key massi ely educed
ou lows o i egula mig an s o he EU and pledged o ake back any i egula
mig an s picked up by G eek au ho i ies a e c ossing om Tu key. Ano he
impo an example o Eu ope and he Uni ed S a es is igh ing he oo ed caus-
es o i egula mig a ion. Policy packages such as he EU T us Fund o A ica
consis o de elopmen assis ance p ojec s ha a e mean o imp o e li ing con-
di ions in mig an s’ coun ies o o igin, e. g., c ea ing jobs o inc easing eco-
nomic esilience. In addi ion, hese policy packages con ain ac i i ies o
s eng hen ins i u ions o imp o e hei abili y o limi mo emen . While mos
de eloping coun ies welcome unding o imp o e li ing condi ions, hey a e
c i ical o es ic ions on mo emen . Thus, pa icipa ing go e nmen s mus
ca e ully weigh he bene i s and cos s o ce ain ypes o ac i i ies o hei sup-
po and su i al. Consequen ly, such ag eemen s a e uns able because hey can
be ended whene e one side is disappoin ed abou he bene i s. This was, o
example, he case wi h he EU-Tu key ag eemen .
Mo eo e , coun ies ha a e nei he di ec o igin, des ina ion, o ansi coun-
ies ha e eme ged as ac o s in he ield o mig a ion diplomacy. Rwanda and
Albania, o example, ha e ag eed o ecei e depo ees and asylum seeke s om
he UK and I aly, espec i ely, in e u n o inancial and poli ical suppo . A
he poin o w i ing, he legali y o such ac i i ies in EU coun ies is a majo
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DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ aw.2025.1457603 | Gene a ed on 2025-05-19 12:47:02
30 Mal e Becke and Tobias Heidland
Vie eljah eshe e zu A bei s- und Wi scha s o schung, 2 (2025) 1
hu dle o hei mo e widesp ead adop ion, bu in he longe e m, laws may be
adjus ed o enable such deals.
In summa y, i i egula mig a ion is an impo an poli ical issue and des ina-
ion coun ies wan o educe i , oppo uni ies o coun ies ha a e no he
main des ina ions a ise o achie e geopoli ical goals o o ge suppo in o he
policy a eas.
4. De e minan s o he S eng h o E ec s on Mig a ion
Based on he he e ogenei y o geopoli ical isk and he many ways in which i
can impac mig a ion, i becomes clea ha po en ial e ec s a e highly con-
ex -speci ic and depend on mul iple ac o s. No e e y o m o geopoli ical isk
will ha e an impac on mig a ion, and mig a ion does no necessa ily a ec ge-
opoli ical isk.
The se e i y o geopoli ical shocks, including he du a ion and egional ex en-
sion, is a key de e minan o he ex en o mig a ion. On a e age, mig a ion
lows can be expec ed o inc ease wi h he se e i y o geopoli ical ensions. O e
60 % o all e ugees come om Sy ia, Venezuela, Uk aine, and A ghanis an
(UNHCR 2024)– ou coun ies ha a e expe iencing in ense pe iods o geo-
poli ical ensions, amoun ing o economic c ises and, mos ly, iolen con lic .
Regionally and empo a ily limi ed pe iods o geopoli ical isk, such as he 2005
London bombings o he 2015 Pa is e o is a acks, will ha e li le o no imme-
dia e e ec on emig a ion, despi e ha ing he po en ial o a ec a i udes o-
wa ds immig an s and, hus, u u e immig a ion.
He e, i is impo an o keep in mind ha he se e i y o geopoli ical isk may
di e o he pa ies in ol ed. While he 9/11 e o is a acks we e a one- ime
e en o he US, hey led o he wa in A ghanis an and amoun ed o immense
mig a ion lows ha ha e con ibu ed o A ghanis an being one o he mos p o-
ac ed e ugee c ises wo ldwide, spanning o e 40 yea s o he So ie in asion
o he coun y.
The in eg a ion o coun ies wi h he es o he wo ld ma e s. In he case o
ex emely isola ed o la gely sel -su icien coun ies, geopoli ical ensions a e
likely o ha e li le e ec on mig a ion, especially i a emp ing o lea e he
coun y is se e ely punished, as in No h Ko ea. This example shows ha he e
a e wo elemen s o conside : he exposu e o shocks and he mig a ion cos s.
The easons o di e ences in he le el o in eg a ion a y. Geog aphy and his-
o ical sou ces o in eg a ion ma e . Dis ance inc eases mig a ion cos s in se -
e al ways. Among hese is a a el dis ance and a lowe likelihood o es ablished
mig a ion ne wo ks. I mig an s ha e iends, amily membe s, o ellow ci izens
ab oad, his educes hei mig a ion cos , so ce e is pa ibus he esponse o a
nega i e shock will be highe . Bu he easons o in eg a ion go beyond geog a-
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DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ aw.2025.1457603 | Gene a ed on 2025-05-19 12:47:02
