Ad ians, Helge
Resea ch Repo
Russia's na al build-up a Lake Ladoga: NATO mus
inc ease i s long- ange i e capabili ies in he Bal ic Sea
egion
SWP Commen , No. 37/2025
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Ge man Ins i u e o In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s,
Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ad ians, Helge (2025) : Russia's na al build-up a Lake Ladoga: NATO mus
inc ease i s long- ange i e capabili ies in he Bal ic Sea egion, SWP Commen , No. 37/2025,
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Be lin,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18449/2025C37
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
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NO.
37
AUGUST 2025
In oduc ion
Russia’s Na al Build-up a Lake Ladoga
NATO Mus Inc ease I s Long- ange Fi e Capabili ies in he Bal ic Sea Region
Helge Ad ians
Russia appa en ly aims o be capable o a acking a ge s in he Bal ic Sea egion
om Lake Ladoga, which is loca ed no h o Sain Pe e sbu g and only 40 kilome es
om he Finnish bo de . Since 2023, Russia has been e alua ing he deploymen o
co e es equipped wi h c uise missiles he e. Such wa ships ha e al eady ca ied ou
s ikes deep in o Sy ia and Uk aine. Thei ecen deploymen s o Lake Ladoga could
complica e he de ence o NATO’s no h-eas e n allies. Simula ed launches we e
epo edly conduc ed o he i s ime in au umn 2024. Howe e , NATO s ill lacks
in o ma ion abou Lake Ladoga. De elopmen s he e unde sco e he need o con-
en ional long- ange i e capabili ies in o Russia’s s a egic dep h o de e Moscow
e ec i ely.
A e Russia’s annexa ion o he C imean
Peninsula in Ma ch 2014 in iola ion o
in e na ional law, wo decades o coope a-
ion be ween all Bal ic Sea na ions ended.
Since hen, a new phase o con on a ion
has p e ailed. Following he a ack on he
wo No d S eam pipelines in Sep embe
2022, his con on a ion has aken place
p ima ily on he seabed. The Bal ic Sea
s a es suspec Russia o delibe a ely spying
on and co e ly sabo aging hei c i ical
unde sea in as uc u e. The e o e, hei
ocus lies on alleged esea ch essels and
me chan ships beha ing suspiciously.
Howe e , li le a en ion has been paid o
he ac ha Russia is building up capabil-
i ies on he edge o he Bal ic Sea. This also
poses a h ea o c i ical in as uc u e,
bo h a sea and asho e.
Small missile ships wi h
huge i epowe
In Oc obe 2023, he magazine K asnaya
Z ezda, an o icial publica ion o he Russian
De ence Minis y, epo ed ha wo wa -
ships had spen a conside able amoun o
ime in Lake Ladoga he p e ious mon h.
This in o ma ion was no unusual a i s .
Since he 1950s, weapon sys ems ha e been
es ed in his inland body o wa e ha
co e s almos 18,000 squa e kilome es and
is he la ges in Eu ope. The lake is also
pa o a s a egic ne wo k o inland wa e -
ways known as he Uni ied Deep Wa e
Sys em o Eu opean Russia (UDWS). I con-
nec s he Bal ic Sea wi h he Whi e Sea in
he A c ic Ocean, among o he s. The e o e,
small wa ships egula ly c oss Lake Ladoga
as a sho cu ins ead o sailing a ound
SWP Commen 37
Augus 2025
2
Scandina ia. Wha makes he epo in
K asnaya Z ezda no ewo hy, howe e , is he
in o ma ion o which uni s we e in he lake
and why.
The So e sk and he Odin so o a e wo
ela i ely new co e es o he Ka aku
class. Along wi h he sligh ly olde bu
o he wise simila Buyan-M class, hese a e
o icially designed o an i-su ace wa a e
in he li o als. Compa ed o hei Wes e n
coun e pa s, hese ships exhibi wo no-
able cha ac e is ics: They a e small enough
o be deployed on i e s bu ha e an eigh -
cell e ical launch sys em o guided mis-
siles. I can be used o i e c uise missiles o
he Kalib se ies. One a ian can hi land
a ge s a a dis ance o up o 2,500 kilo-
me es. In Oc obe 2015, Russia su p ised
he wo ld when h ee Buyan-M-class co -
e es in he Caspian Sea, among o he
essels, a acked a ge s 1,500 kilome es
away in Sy ia , which was hen con olled
by Islamis o ganisa ions. The co e es
hus ha e he same quali a i e s iking
powe as US Na y c uise s o des oye s
wice as la ge. As o Janua y 2025, Russia
has 11 uni s o he Ka aku class and six
o he Buyan-M class in se ice. The Russian
go e nmen plans o p ocu e nine mo e
ships o he la e .
The So e sk and he Odin so o a e pa
o Russia’s Bal ic Flee . Thei home po is
Bal iysk in he excla e o Kalining ad.
Acco ding o K asnaya Z ezda, he co e es
unde ook “expe imen al comba du y” in
Lake Ladoga. The ini ial objec i e was o
each he lake om he Bal ic Sea ia he
Ne a Ri e , which a e ses Sain Pe e s-
bu g, wi hou he assis ance o ugboa s
ha a e no mally equi ed due o he s ong
cu en s. Upon a i al in he lake, he
c ews had o con end wi h he spa se logis-
ical condi ions o an unspeci ied na al
base abandoned since 2004. Acco ding o a
Russian mili a y blogge , his was likely
Lakhdenpokhya o he no h-wes o he
lake, only 40 kilome es om he Finnish
bo de . F om he e, he co e es did a ious
explo a ion ou s o amilia ise hemsel es
wi h he wa e s.
Sa e space o he Bal ic Flee
The objec i e o hese e o s was explici ly
a icula ed in K asnaya Z ezda: p o ec ion.
This unc ion is enabled by Lake Ladoga’s
s a egic posi ion on he edge o he Bal ic
Sea. Since Finland’s de ea in he Second
Wo ld Wa , he lake has been su ounded
by Russian e i o y, and i s access is con-
olled by Moscow. The e o e, econnais-
sance on he g ound is di icul o oppo-
nen s and easible only ia senso s such as
sa elli es.
This seclusion c ea es a signi ican Wes -
e n in elligence de ici ega ding ac i i ies
on he lake. Fo eign wa ships, Unc ewed
Su ace Vehicles (USVs) o d i ing mines
a e unable o en e he pool, he eby p e-
cluding di ec endange men o Russian
uni s. The uni s’ de ec ion is u he com-
plica ed when hey conceal hemsel es in
he ugged a chipelago in he no h o he
lake o manoeu e unp edic ably. This is
exace ba ed by s eal h echnology. The
essels a e equipped wi h close-in weapon
sys ems, moun ed on he uppe deck o
in ended o be e o i ed. In addi ion, he e
a e se e al ai de ence si es in he su -
ounding a ea, which ha e been ein o ced
du ing he wa agains Uk aine. While
hese sys ems a e p ima ily in ended o
shield he me opolis o Sain Pe e sbu g,
hey also co e Lake Ladoga.
Russia’s emphasis on p o ec ion is likely
in o med by i s ope a ional expe iences in
Uk aine. Al hough Kyi los mos o i s wa -
ships ollowing he annexa ion o C imea in
2014 and he Russian in asion in 2022, he
Uk ainian a med o ces succeeded in keep-
ing he Russian Black Sea Flee a a dis ance
h ough land-based an i-ship missiles and
sea mines. This e ec i ely c ea ed space
o USV kamikaze a acks, a ac ic which
Uk aine ini ia ed in Oc obe 2022 and has
pu sued in ensi ely since i s 2023 summe
o ensi e. Wi hou a blockade o Uk ainian
e i o ial wa e s, Russia was unable o
execu e he b oade amphibious landing
i had ini ially planned. Consequen ly, he
Black Sea Flee has been able o ul il only
one p e equisi e o achie ing sea con ol:
SWP Commen 37
Augus 2025
3
s iking land a ge s. In his con ex , he
co e es o he Ka aku and Buyan-M
classes play a signi ican ole. Howe e , wo
ha e been damaged by Uk ainian s ikes in
he Black Sea, and one has been des oyed.
The impe a i e o p o ec ion is u he
unde sco ed by Finland’s accession o
NATO. Russia’s ull in asion o Uk aine
p omp ed Helsinki o abandon i s long-
s anding policy o mili a y non-alignmen
and o apply o NATO membe ship in May
2022. Finland o mally joined he alliance
in Ap il 2023. The s ep en ailed se ious
geos a egic changes o Moscow. Fi s ly,
Russia’s land bo de s wi h NATO inc eased
by o e 1,000 kilome es, elimina ing wha
Russia pe cei ed as a s a egic bu e zone.
Secondly, Wes e n allies now possess he
capaci y o deploy oops in close icini y
o Russian e i o y, acili a ing po en ial
s ikes in o i s hin e land. Thi dly, he ac
ha he Gul o Finland is now lanked by
wo NATO membe s, Es onia and Finland,
inc eases he possibili y o blockading he
ou e o Sain Pe e sbu g. This co ido has
seen a conside able ise o economic sig-
ni icance a e he EU inc eased sanc ions
agains Russia.
In he e en o a con lic , such a block-
ade would mean he di ision o he Bal ic
Flee . Russia main ains a s ong coas al
a ille y equipped wi h an i-ship c uise
missiles in Kalining ad, bu Sweden, Poland
and Finland’s capabili ies should no be
unde es ima ed, while he h ee Bal ic
s a es a e in he p ocess o acqui ing hem.
This would make na al ope a ions ex eme-
ly isky o bo h pa ies, likely esul ing in a
swi educ ion in ship mo emen s. In u n,
Kalining ad could be subjec ed o a ille y
bomba dmen om Poland and Li huania,
esul ing in Bal iysk becoming inde ensible
by Russia. An escape wes wa d would be
equally isky, as i would mean passing he
Danish s ai s.
Gi en hese ci cums ances, i is imp ob-
able ha he Bal ic Flee could a ain sea
con ol in a con on a ion wi h NATO. The
u ilisa ion o Lake Ladoga would o e he
oppo uni y o sa egua d small ships o he
lee , he e o e p ese ing a minimum o
ope a ional au onomy. This would enable
suppo o land ope a ions, as seen in
Uk aine.
De e ence agains Finland
One week a e he publica ion o he
a icle in K asnaya Z ezda, he K emlin-
aligned daily newspape Iz es ia disclosed
addi ional de ails. I epo ed ha he
deploymen o he So e sk and Odin so o was
linked o a s udy commissioned by he
Russian Minis y o De ence. The s udy
examined ope a ional bene i s o he
Ka aku and Buyan-M classes wi hin Lake
Ladoga. The a icle ci ed Russian expe s
who specula ed ha hese measu es we e
speci ically di ec ed agains Finland.
Helsinki’s decision o join NATO appa -
en ly caugh Moscow o gua d. Russian
plans o s eng hen de ences along he
bo de i s became public in Decembe
2022. Un il Finland’s o mal accession o
NATO in Ap il 2023, no signi ican de el-
opmen s such as oop edeploymen s
had been obse ed. The ac ha co e es
equipped wi h land-a ack c uise missiles
we e u ilised o su ey Lake Ladoga in
Sep embe 2023 appea s h ea ening a i s
glance. A e all, he i epowe o a single
uni o he Ka aku o Buyan-M class is
equi alen o he sal o o an en i e missile
ba alion equipped wi h he Iskande -K
sys em. Al hough his capaci y is no su i-
cien o a la ge-scale bomba dmen ,
and he essel would equi e ex ensi ely
eloading in po , i could none heless
con ibu e o coo dina ing a acks on c i i-
cal in as uc u e (S a egic Ope a ion
o he Des uc ion o C i ically Impo an
Ta ge s, SODCIT).
The idea o SODCIT is o de e an ad-
e sa y om con inuing o escala ing a
con lic by in luencing he mo ale o he
poli ical leade ship o socie y h ough
he des uc ion o key asse s wi h as ew
casual ies as possible. Such a s a egy
has been e iden in Uk aine as a o m o
a i ion wa a e. Acco ding o Russian
mili a y heo y, howe e , SODCIT may also
SWP Commen 37
Augus 2025
4
be employed du ing he pe iod be ween
peace and wa , o ins ance h ough p e-
emp i e s ikes. Co e es a e pa icula ly
well sui ed o his pu pose.
Howe e , a side no e in K asnaya Z ezda
acknowledges ha i is no ope a ionally
necessa y o s a ion hese ships in Lake
Ladoga o hold Finland a isk. Because o
he conside able ange o c uise missiles, i
makes no undamen al di e ence whe he
hey ope a e om Lake Ladoga o o he ,
unnamed a eas.
One o hese al e na i es is likely he
Whi e Sea. Since 2020, co e es om he
Bal ic Flee ha e seasonally ansi ed om
he Bal ic Sea o he Whi e Sea ia he
UDWS o aining in c uise missile launch-
ing. The p ecise loca ion o hese exe cises
emains publicly undisclosed. The designa -
ed ange was he Chizha aining a ea on
he Kanin Peninsula in he eas e n Ba en s
Sea, a ew hund ed kilome es away. The
Zelenyy Dol o he Buyan-M class, accompa-
nied by he Odin so o, began he exe cises in
Augus 2020. I was ollowed in Sep embe
2021 by he So e sk, in Augus 2022 by i s
sis e ship My ishchi and in Oc obe 2023 by
he Se pukho o he Buyan-M class.
Wha he K asnaya Z ezda omi ed, how-
e e , is ha he e is a signi ican ope a ion-
al dis inc ion be ween deploying co e es
in Lake Ladoga o he Whi e Sea. The cen es
o he wo bodies o wa e a e sepa a ed by
o e 500 kilome es. F om Lake Ladoga, i
is possible o s ike deepe in o he wes e n
Bal ic Sea, o example as a as eas e n
Ge many. The ligh ime o c uise missiles
om he lake would also be educed, he e-
by sho ening ea ly wa ning imes.
New bas ion in he shadow o
he Bal ic Sea
Al hough some mili a y blogge s as well
as egional and specialis media ou le s
epo ed on he K asnaya Z ezda and Iz es ia
a icles, he p esence o he So e sk and
Odin so o in Lake Ladoga wen widely un-
commen ed in he Wes . A pape on he
Bal ic Sea egion by he enowned US hink
ank RAND, published in he summe o
2024, nei he men ioned he lake by name
no depic ed i on an included map. Sho ly
a e wa ds, howe e , i was con i med ha
Russia in ends o s eng hen i s mili a y
p esence in he a ea.
In Sep embe 2024, he G ad and Na o-
Fominsk o he Buyan-M class we e deployed
om Sain Pe e sbu g o Lake Ladoga.
A came a eam wo king o Z ezda, a TV
ne wo k un by he Russian Minis y o
De ence, was on boa d. Subsequen ly, Wes -
e n mili a y blogge s ci cula ed sa elli e
images showing he ships a a loa ing je y
nea S o ozhe oye, no h o P ioze sk.
This si e is a es ing acili y o unde wa e
sys ems ope a ed by he s a e-owned a ms
manu ac u e Gid op ibo . A ew days la e ,
he Russian s a e news agency TASS epo -
ed ha he deploymen o he co e es o
Lake Ladoga was pa o he la ge-scale,
lee -wide exe cise Ocean-24, conduc ed ha
mon h. Acco ding o his epo , he ships
p ac iced jamming and ca ied ou elec on-
ic launches o c uise missiles. The e was
no u he men ion o p o ec ion, he sole
ocus being on de e ing NATO.
Whe he Finland was genuinely im-
p essed is deba able. When Russia had an-
nounced six mon hs ea lie , in Ap il 2024,
ha i would deploy h ee missile ba alions
equipped wi h Iskande -M in he neighbou -
ing egion o Ka elia, he Finnish esponse
was ma kedly dismissi e. A Finnish secu i y
expe w o e on pla o m X ha he con-
side ed i absu d o posi ion long- ange i es
close o a decla ed enemy, he eby inc eas-
ing hei ulne abili y.
Ne e heless, he h ea posed by such
deploymen s should no be unde es ima ed,
as de ec ing and engaging missile launche s
is no i ial ask. The si ua ion in Kalinin-
g ad is illus a i e in his ega d. Al hough
almos en i ely enci cled by NATO membe
s a es, he sys ems s a ioned he e o ai
and coas al de ence possess he capaci y o
empo a ily deny Wes e n o ces access
o he a ea and cons ain hei eedom o
mo emen wi hin i (An i-Access/A ea
Denial, A2/AD). The deg ada ion o hese
sys ems would likely p o e bo h ime-
SWP Commen 37
Augus 2025
5
consuming and esou ce-in ensi e. Bo h
ac o s would ha e ad e se ami ica ions
o he de ence o he Bal ic s a es, which
a e i ually locked behind Kalining ad,
he eby acili a ing Russia’s capaci y o
launch a ull in asion o conduc SODCIT
he e. The si ua ion may be simila o
Finland i Moscow con inues o expand i s
h ea scena io in Ka elia. The new bas ion
could ei he be ac i a ed simul aneously,
hus posing a dilemma o he p io i isa ion
o NATO’s ope a ional esponses, o se e
as a con ingency op ion in he e en ha
Kalining ad alls.
The Russian co e es cons i u e me ely
one elemen o his new bas ion. In e ms
o hei ac ical deploymen op ions, epo s
in K asnaya Z ezda and Iz es ia emphasised
ha hese essels could be mo ed ac oss he
UDWS like chess pieces. In addi ion o Lake
Ladoga, his would ex end o Lake Onega
in he Eas . This is he second la ges inland
body o wa e in Eu ope and accessible
ia he S i i e . Al e na i e ou es lead
no hwa ds ia a canal o he Whi e Sea
and sou hwa ds ia ano he canal and he
Rybinsk Rese oi o he Volga. The i e
ul ima ely lows in o he Caspian Sea and
is connec ed by ye ano he canal o he
Don. I lows in o he Sea o Azo , a ma -
ginal sea o he no he n Black Sea.
The mili a y u ili y o he UDWS, e-
quen ly e e ed o du ing he Cold Wa ,
has his o ically been cons ained by in a-
s uc u e and na u al condi ions. This
s ems om he quan i y and s uc u al con-
di ion o locks and b idges, as well as he
dep hs and cu en s o he i e s. In he
pas , i equi ed days o e en weeks o e-
deploy wa ships ac oss he UDWS. In he
case o Lake Ladoga, an addi ional limi a-
ion is ha i is ypically icebound om
No embe o May. In his ega d, he co -
e es will no undamen ally al e he
geos a egic si ua ion in ha pa o he
Bal ic Sea egion. Howe e , ansi s con-
duc ed unde ope a ional condi ions in
2023 and 2024 can be in e p e ed as pa
o an e ol ing s a egic pos u e.
Fu he Russian ac i i ies
an icipa ed
Al hough Russia has disclosed i s ma i ime
in en ions on Lake Ladoga, hese decla a-
ions ha e no p o oked any no ewo hy
esponse om Wes e n ac o s. In e ms o
p o ec ion, such Wes e n es ain is likely
o align wi h Moscow’s in e es , hough i
does li le o enhance Russia’s de e ence
pos u e. Addi ional Russian ac i i ies
should he e o e be an icipa ed in 2025.
D awing on p e ious yea s’ expe ience,
hese a e mos likely o occu in Sep embe
and Oc obe .
In he in e im, i will be in e es ing o
moni o he ex en o which Russia’s in a-
s uc u e is mode nised o expanded.
Al hough he Russian Na y announced he
expansion o es ing acili ies on Lake
Ladoga in 2017, his p ima ily conce ned
he ins alla ion o an enna sys ems. I is no
publicly known whe e he co e es ha e
been moo ed, apa om Lakhdenpokhya
in 2023 and S o ozhe oy in 2024. Howe e ,
he acili ies a hese si es a e epo edly
in need o e u bishmen . Acco ding o
sa elli e images, S o ozhe oy can cu en ly
only accommoda e wo co e es. An al e -
na i e si e could be Vladimi o skaya Bay
opposi e Kone e s Island, whe e a aining
a ea was p e iously main ained. In e ms
o wa e dep h, Lasanen in he no h-wes
sec o o he lake may also p o e sui able,
as he s a e-owned a ms manu ac u e
Okeanp ibo ope a es a es ing acili y he e.
Howe e , he co e es appea o be unable
o dock a i s pon oons.
The ongoing wa in Uk aine has once
again unde sco ed he s a egic ad an age
o main aining nume ous small na al bases
as opposed o a single la ge one. In summe
2024, Russia wi hd ew se e al ships o i s
Black Sea Flee o he Sea o Azo , p esum-
ably o shield hem om Uk ainian USVs.
Howe e , Kyi was able o s ike he Ka kaz
e y po on he eas e n side o he Ke ch
S ai by using Unmanned Ae ial Vehicles
(UAVs). As an immedia e esul , Russia
wi hd ew i s uni s om he inland sea. In
au umn 2024, Uk aine e en succeeded in
SWP Commen 37
Augus 2025
6
s iking he na al base a Kaspiysk on he
wes e n sho e o he Caspian Sea. Th ough
employing a ligh ai c a con e ed in o a
UAV, Uk aine epo edly in lic ed damage
on se e al wa ships.
I emains o be de e mined whe he
hese de elopmen s will in luence ac i i ies
on Lake Ladoga. As long as Finland o o he
NATO membe s e ain om esponding o
Russia’s ac i i ies in he egion, Moscow e-
ains se e al op ions o inc easing i s de e -
ence. Po en ial measu es migh include
exe cises in ol ing eloading missiles unde
comba condi ions. This would signal bo h
ope a ional eadiness and endu ance. To
u he unde sco e his po en ial, i would
be logical o ollow up he simula ed
launch o c uise missiles, ei he once again
as an exe cise owa ds Chizha o as a
demons a i e con ibu ion o ope a ions
agains Uk ainian a ge s. In bo h scena ios,
he coo dina ion e o would be conside a-
ble as he missiles would a e se es ab-
lished ai co ido s. Such an ac ion would
be in e p e ed as a sign o de e mina ion.
Russian analys s ha e also discussed he
po en ial deploymen o con en ionally
powe ed subma ines equipped wi h c uise
missiles o Lake Ladoga. This is heo e ically
possible as Russia possesses he necessa y
essels in he Kilo II and Lada classes. Uni s
o he o me ha e al eady been employed
o s ike land a ge s du ing he wa s in
Sy ia and Uk aine. The lake’s a e age dep h
o 50 me es, wi h dep hs exceeding 230
me es in he no he n basin, would also
acili a e subsu ace ope a ions p o iding
addi ional p o ec ion. I is wo h no ing
ha subma ines ha e ope a ed in Lake
Ladoga since he Second Wo ld Wa .
Ne e heless, i appea s imp obable ha
subma ines o he Kilo II o Lada class will
be based he e in he sho o medium
e m. A p esen , he Bal ic Flee does no
possess any o hese uni s. They a e cu -
en ly unde cons uc ion in Sain Pe e s-
bu g, bu hei in oduc ion has been
epea edly delayed due o echnical compli-
ca ions. Fu he mo e, he logis ical e o
equi ed o ans e a subma ine o Lake
Ladoga would be conside able, necessi a ing
he use o ba ges and ugboa s. This, in
u n, p ecludes he possibili y o apid
ex ac ion o a subma ine om he lake
in a c isis scena io.
Closing he knowledge gap and
s eng hening de e ence
While mos NATO membe s emain p e-
occupied wi h he deploymen o long-
ange missile sys ems in Kalining ad, Russia
is es ablishing a second bulwa k a he end
o he Bal ic Sea wi h compa a i ely modes
e o . This segmen o he ma ginal sea is
likely o assume g ea e s a egic ele ance
in 2025. The Bal ic Sea s a es ha e aban-
doned hei long-s anding passi i y owa ds
Russian-a ilia ed esea ch and comme cial
essels suspec ed o espionage and sabo-
age. This shi aises he isk o escala ion.
Russia began wi h esco ope a ions o ank-
e s h ough he Gul o Finland; an ex en-
sion o he en i e ou e om he No h Sea
o Sain Pe e sbu g is likely. Signal jamming
and spoo ing as well as he use o UAVs
could also inc ease.
I emains challenging o an icipa e
Russia’s esponse, as he pe pe a o s o
ecen inciden s ha e ye o be iden i ied.
Co e ope a ions and o e mili a y build-
up a e likely o p oceed in pa allel. Re-
ga ding he la e , i seems plausible ha
Moscow will issue h ea ening e e ences
o i s missile a senal, especially he coas al
a ille y in Kalining ad. Es ablished beha -
iou al pa e ns would include issuing deci-
si e s a emen s o conduc ing snap exe -
cises. One indica o o Russia’s willingness
o escala e may be whe he , which and
how many wa ships a e deployed in o Lake
Ladoga o ans e ed ia he UDWS o he
Whi e Sea.
Recen de elopmen s in he eas e n
Bal ic Sea unde sco e he necessi y o
NATO o main ain c edible de e ence.
This equi es he abili y o conduc Deep
P ecision S ikes (DPS) using ai c a o
missiles agains a ge s in he Russian
hin e land. A he p esen , mos membe s
o he alliance lack his capabili y.
SWP Commen 37
Augus 2025
7
Howe e , he de iciency has been ac-
knowledged, and se e al ini ia i es ha e
been launched o add ess i . On 10 July
2024, du ing he NATO summi held in
Washing on, Ge many and he Uni ed
S a es announced hei in en ion o deploy
g ound-based long- ange i es capabili ies
o he US A my o Ge many. P io o his,
he US Na y had al eady been conduc ing
con oy p o ec ion d ills in ol ing he ele-
an launch ehicle on he Danish island o
Bo nholm on se e al occasions, indica ing
a po en ial deploymen si e. On 12 July, one
day a e he summi concluded, Ge many,
F ance, I aly, and Poland inaugu a ed he
Eu opean Long-Range S ike App oach
(ELSA) o p ocu e hei own g ound-based
medium- ange weapons. Sho ly a e -
wa ds, he Uni ed Kingdom and Sweden
joined he ini ia i e.
A comp ehensi e si ua ional pic u e is
essen ial o he deploymen o long- ange
sys ems and hus o a c edible de e ence.
The p ocu emen o hose sys ems should
he e o e be accompanied by he es ab-
lishmen and enhancemen o comp ehen-
si e su eillance co e ing he Bal ic Sea
egion and i s pe iphe y. The objec i e is o
minimise he in e al be ween a ge iden-
i ica ion and engagemen . Ini ial s eps in
his di ec ion a e al eady e iden .
The in elligence ob ained should no be
con ined solely o mili a y ci cles. Ins ead,
i seems sensible o sha e indings om
in e nal assessmen wi h he public as pa
o s a egic communica ion. This would
allow Russia’s ac i i ies, pa icula ly in
p e iously neglec ed a eas such as Lake
Ladoga, o be con ex ualised and coun e ac
eelings o insecu i y. The app oach adop -
ed by he B i ish mili a y in elligence
se ice De ence In elligence, se es as a
no able example. Since Russia’s ull-scale
in asion o Uk aine, i has been egula ly
publishing concise epo s on cu en
de elopmen s, which a e subsequen ly
dissemina ed by he UK Minis y o De ence
ia social media. Ge many can al eady
make a aluable con ibu ion in his ield,
as i has assumed g ea e esponsibili y
o secu i y in he Bal ic Sea egion in
ecen yea s, o ins ance, h ough i s ole
as Commande Task Fo ce Bal ic (CTF Bal ic)
coo dina ing ma i ime ope a ions o
NATO. The o e a ching aim is o elimina e
any ambigui y ha could be exploi ed by
Russia.
Commande Helge Ad ians is Visi ing Fellow in he In e na ional Secu i y Di ision a SWP.
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SWP
S i ung Wissenscha und
Poli ik
Ge man Ins i u e o
In e na ional and
Secu i y A ai s
Ludwigki chpla z 3–4
10719 Be lin
Telephone +49 30 880 07-0
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ISSN (P in ) 1861-1761
ISSN (Online) 2747-5107
DOI: 10.18449/2025C37
(English e sion o
SWP-Ak uell 7/2025)
