Muchopa, Chiedza L.
A icle
The a i libe alisa ion policy nexus wi h non- a i
measu es: Panel model e idence in he SA-EU ui
p oduc s ade
Economies
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
MDPI – Mul idisciplina y Digi al Publishing Ins i u e, Basel
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Muchopa, Chiedza L. (2025) : The a i libe alisa ion policy nexus wi h non- a i
measu es: Panel model e idence in he SA-EU ui p oduc s ade, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099,
MDPI, Basel, Vol. 13, Iss. 1, pp. 1-23,
h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13010001
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Ci a ion: Muchopa, C. L. (2025). The
Ta i Libe alisa ion Policy Nexus wi h
Non-Ta i Measu es: Panel Model
E idence in he SA–EU F ui P oduc s
T ade. Economies,13(1), 1.
h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/
economies13010001
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economies
A icle
The Ta i Libe alisa ion Policy Nexus wi h Non-Ta i Measu es:
Panel Model E idence in he SA–EU F ui P oduc s T ade
Chiedza L. Muchopa
Depa men o Ag icul u al Economics, Uni e si y o Limpopo, Polokwane 0727, Sou h A ica;
[email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : Highe le els o quo a g an ed can induce and inc ease expo s, bu he impac
is no he same ac oss all a i lines. Answe s a e sough o he ques ion o how he
le el o expo s changes as he quo a size o a i a e quo as changes, hus enabling
he in es iga ion o whe he unila e al quo as g an ed o Sou h A ica by he Eu opean
Union ha e in luenced ui p oduc s’ expo lows in he p esence o non- a i measu es.
D awing on panel da a eg ession echniques, his s udy obse es i e ui p oduc s’ a i
a e quo as epea edly om 2004 o 2021. I also inco po a es a a iable o cap u e non- a i
measu es based on he da a om he WTO I-TIP da abase. The indings indica e a posi i e
ela ionship be ween quo a size and expo s, u he showing ha o a gi en quo a size,
he inc ease in expo s is small in he p esence o non- a i measu es. These indings d aw
a en ion o u u e ade e o ms ha ocus on seeking he expansion o quo a size o he
mos p oduc i e a i lines in e ms o expo g ow h while aiming o he simul aneous
educ ion o non- a i measu es and a i a es.
Keywo ds: non- a i measu es; a i a e quo a; panel eg ession; ui p oduc s; ade
de elopmen and coope a ion ag eemen ; SADC–EU–EPA
1. In oduc ion
Wo ld ma ke s o ood a e in eg a ed h ough in e na ional ade whe ein ee ade
ag eemen s (FTAs) inco po a e p o isions o emo e ce ain ade ba ie s (O o i-Amoah,
2024). One o many expec a ions wi h FTAs is ha a a ie y o consume oods a e a ailed
a lowe p ices, which in u n can ensu e he secu i y o consump ion o hose oods in
he impo ing coun y. F ui s a e ecognised as an impo an pa o heal hy die s, and
in e na ional ade plays a ole in p omo ing access, albei in he p esence o ade ba ie s,
such as a i a e quo as (TRQs). Ag icul u al ade p o isions in FTAs pas and p esen
a e also designed and expec ed o p omo e he de elopmen and expansion o ag icul u al
expo s o he coun y ecei ing p e e ences (Gil-Pa eja e al.,2019) wi h he insigh ha
he e a e gains om ade (K ugman & Obs eld,2018). In ha ega d, p e e ences such as
TRQs, p esen ed as ins umen s o ade libe alisa ion unde FTAs, a e conside ed one o
he ways o de eloping na ions o each in e na ional ade global alue chains (GVCs).
T ade is acili a ed h ough he educ ion o ade ba ie s ha include non- a i measu es
(NTMs) and a i s (Vicke s,2018;Ajewole e al.,2022). Al hough he goal o TRQs as an
ins umen o ade policy is o manage ade in a coun y’s sensi i e sec o s, TRQs se e
bo h he pu pose o inc easing supplies o ood in impo ing ma ke s as well as doing so a
lowe ed p ices. In he case o expo ing na ions such as Sou h A ica ha ha e a ib an
ui expo sec o , TRQs pa e he way o imp o e access o ma ke s such as he Eu opean
Union. Howe e , as NTMs a e being ins i u ed o espond o he ood sa e y conce ns
Economies 2025,13, 1 h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13010001
Economies 2025,13, 1 2 o 23
o impo ing de eloped na ions (Wen e al.,2018), hey ha e con ibu ed o ba ie s o
expo e s, mainly om de eloping coun ies (Suanin,2023). NTMs, such as sani a y and
phy osani a y (SPS) measu es, can ha e he same e ec on domes ic consume s in an
impo ing coun y when ac ing as a ban, which, as elabo a ed in Fa hel ahman e al. (2024),
ends o esul in inc eased domes ic p ices o consume s hus leading o wel a e losses.
While NTMs a e conside ed o be a legi ima e ins i u ional inno a ion o ensu e ood sa e y,
he e is a gene al consensus ha such esponses a e inc easingly being used p o ec i ely
(Kuma & Bha i,2020), becoming mo e s ingen , limi ing impo s and indi ec ly educing
he consume choice o heal hy op ions such as ui s and ege ables whe e such ba ie s
a e mo e p e alen . The ela ionship be ween expo s and NTMs is, howe e , no absolu e,
hence he need o his p esen s udy o in es iga e he pa icula SA–EU case o ui
p oduc s and o add o he public deba e on he use o ade policy ins umen s in bila e al
ade ag eemen s.
The subjec o he u ilisa ion o TRQs con inues o domina e ag icul u al ade libe ali-
sa ion deba es ques ioning he comme cial iabili y o access o de eloped na ions’ ma ke s
by de eloping na ions (Abbo ,2002;Rena,2008;Re ell,2017;Beckman e al.,2021). Such
deba es culmina ing om Wo ld T ade O ganisa ion (WTO) membe coun ies showing
in e es in unde s anding he ac o s impac ing quo a usage ha e been opical a he WTO
Commi ee mee ings on Ag icul u e (O den e al.,2019;Jackson e al.,2020;Beckman e al.,
2021). The membe s a es o he WTO a e in e es ed in imp o ed ma ke access o hei
own expo commodi ies in o de o bene i hei economies. The seminal wo k o Skully
(1999b) desc ibes he unc ioning o TRQs, no ing he h ee componen s o a TRQ, namely
quo a size, in-quo a a i , and ou -o -quo a a i . The heo y o he unc ioning o TRQs,
he e o e, o ms he basis o he p esen s udy. E en hough he quo a size is expec ed o
posi i ely ela e o he g ow h o expo s, he pe sis en unde - ill (Muchopa e al.,2019;
Muchopa,2021) o unila e al quo as has igni ed some deba es on he sui abili y o he
TRQ ins umen as a ade libe alisa ion ool hus ques ioning he ins umen ’s abili y o
imp o e expo g ow h and de elopmen .
The inabili y o expo e s o ill TRQs wo ldwide has gene a ed immense deba e
(Chen e al.,2020
;Chow & Sheldon,2024), and he easons o unde - ill emain ambiguous.
As a i ba ie s ha e con inually been educed, NTMs ha e become mo e p e alen
(
Saini,2011
;Ki piche & Mo al-Beni o,2018;Bellmann & Suga han,2022). The OECD
(2024) explains NTMs as all policy measu es (o he han a i s and TRQs) di ec ly impac ing
ade. The ambiguous impac o NTMs is no ed and acknowledged, indica ing ha sani a y
and phy osani a y (SPS)- ela ed NTMs can inc ease ade cos s, hough, on he one hand,
hey can also aise demand in he domes ic ma ke s as well as inc ease expo s (OECD,
2019). While ade has been ecognised as playing an impo an pa in he achie emen
o Agenda 2030 and he sus ainable de elopmen goals (SDGs), in gene al, he a ge s
o achie e he SDGs a e lagging (Sachs e al.,2023) and gi en he ecen expe iences in
global supply chain dis up ions, c i icism is abounding on ade policies ha hinde he
ee low o commodi ies. SDG 2 is ele an o he p esen s udy in as much as global ood
sys ems depend on ade, hence, unde s anding he ba ie s and dis o ions can assis wi h
he a ge o imp o e ood secu i y and nu i ion. I is p uden , he e o e, o imp o e he
unde s anding o he nexus o ade policies and pa icula in luen ial ac o s.
In-quo a a i s o ui p oduc s expo s expo ed unde he ade libe alisa ion
egime implemen ed be ween Sou h A ica (SA) and he EU ha e gene ally been e-
duced based on ade p e e ences g an ed by he EU. The T ade, De elopmen and
Coope a ion Ag eemen (TDCA) came in o ull e ec in May 2004 and was eplaced
by an Economic Pa ne ship Ag eemen (EPA) in 2016, he Sou he n A ican De elop-
men
Communi y—Eu opean
Union—Economic Pa ne ship Ag eemen (SADC–EU–EPA)
Economies 2025,13, 1 3 o 23
(
Eu opean Commission,2018
,2021,2022a,2022b). The impo ance o TRQ p e e ences
o e ed o Sou h A ica by he EU a ies in hei con ibu ion o each sub-sec o . I is no
possible o gene alise as o whe he TRQs wo k o do no wo k as e idence o hei impac
is case-speci ic. The e o e, mo e needs o be unde s ood in he ui p oduc s con ex . While
oppo uni ies exis in he p ocessed ui ade, his is also a sec o ha aces es ic ions in
e ms o sensi i e p oduc de ini ions. Joshi (2013) concludes ha ‘p oduc s ha a e highly
p o ec ed do no ge high p e e en ial access e en a he egional le el’. Gi en ha TRQs
a e conside ed a bluep in o p omo e ma ke access in es ic ed expo ma ke s, hey
emain an impo an ool in he ade libe alisa ion deba e. P oponen s o he TRQ ade
libe alisa ion policy ins umen a gue ha TRQs enhance expo s o sensi i e ag icul u al
p oduc s, ye in o he qua e s, such a policy is conside ed a second-bes policy gi en
he es ic ions ha a e placed on he ade o sensi i e ag icul u al p oduc s. Despi e
he jus i ica ion o TRQs, he e a e epo ed misma ches be ween quo a size g an ed and
expo le els obse ed, highligh ed in s udies epo ing quo a unde - ill.
1.1. Resea ch Gap Iden i ied Th ough Li e a u e
Va ious s udies, including Chen e al. (2020); Beckman e al. (2021); Ja a i e al.
(2021); Muchopa (2021); and F y (2023), ha e been conduc ed in di e en con ex s and
egions o analyse TRQs, bu he deba e is a om ending. The e a e g owing claims
ha NTMs a e inc easingly eplacing a i s as coun ies pu sue ull a i libe alisa ion
policies, possibly explaining he con inued low expo g ow h. S udies such as Nilsson
(2018) and
G uble and Rei e
(2021) con inue o no e ha NTMs ha e been on he ise, and
in he con ex o ui p oduc s, he NTMs ange om pes icide esidue limi s, geog aphical
indica o s, impo licensing p ocedu es, and labelling equi emen s, among o he s. Recen
s udies (O e ice,2017;Ghodsi & S eh e ,2022;Ghodsi,2023) u he discuss he NTMs–
a i nexus. Muchopa e al. (2019,2020,2021) p o ide e idence ha he educ ion o NTMs
leads o an inc ease in expo s. The easoning ad anced, he e o e, in he p e ious s udies
is ha , o expo s o g ow, ade ba ie s mus be lowe ed o emo ed. Howe e , gi en
ha na ions a e always seeking o p o ec domes ic p oduce s, albei ade ag eemen s in
place, he TRQ ins umen has ound esonance in si ua ions whe e a coun y’s sensi i e
sec o s need o be shielded om compe i ion. The e a e sugges ions, he e o e, ha he
implemen a ion o NTMs u he us a es ade unde a gi en TRQ egime. This ques ion
o he ela ionship be ween NTMs and he TRQ ade libe alisa ion ins umen has ecei ed
less a en ion. Hence, he p esen s udy add esses ha esea ch gap. Va ious angles can be
aken o unde s and his ques ion, and in he p esen pape , his nexus o TRQs and NTMs
is in es iga ed by answe ing speci ic ques ions in he Sou h A ican con ex conce ning he
expo esponse o ui p oduc s o unila e al quo a p e e ences o he Eu opean Union.
The second ques ion in es iga ed ela es o whe he he p esence o NTMs a ec s he le el
o expo s o he gi en ade p e e ences (TRQs o selec ed ui p oduc s).
Scan y esea ch exis s on he impac o TRQ p e e ences on expo s in indi idual
sec o s, such as ha o ui p oduc s. S udies such as Jo daan and Kanda (2011), conduc ed
on he impac o ade ag eemen s on expo s, igno e he ci cums ances o indi idual sec o s
in he way in which he p e e ences may be u ilised. This is con i med in a p e ious s udy
by Yuan and Awokuse (2003), no ing ha he agg ega ion o ade da a in he analyses
conduc ed implies he p esence o uni o m impac s ac oss commodi ies, which, howe e ,
is no he case. Hence, he au ho s ad oca e o he use o commodi y-speci ic ade da a.
This p esen pape analyses he impac o he TRQ ins umen (decomposed in o i s h ee
componen a iables, ha is, he quo a, he in-quo a a i , and he ou -o -quo a a i )
on he quan i y o expo s and u he links ha wi h he analysis o he e ec s o NTMs
imposed on ade lows in he pe iod om 2004 o 2021. The mechanisms by which he
Economies 2025,13, 1 4 o 23
TRQ policy is applied o he ui p oduc s wo k a e elabo a ed by Muchopa e al. (2019).
Hence, he p esen s udy ex ends he wo k o Muchopa e al. (2019), which conside s a
Global T ade Analysis P ojec (GTAP) Compu able Gene al Equilib ium (CGE) scena io o
de e mine he economic wel a e impac s o he emo al o NTMs o a combined o e ing
o ui p oduc s’ TRQs.
To add ess he iden i ied esea ch gap in Muchopa e al. (2019) and o he s udies
men ioned ea lie , a di e en and disagg ega ed da a se is employed in a panel model o
conside whe he he e a e subs an ial di e ences in he esponsi eness o expo le els
o he TRQ le el o size ac oss he di e en ui p oduc s which a e being aded in he
p esence o NTMs. Expo lows o he ui p oduc s ecei ing p e e ences di e , and he
u ilisa ion o p e e ences also di e s ac oss he commodi ies. The e o e, he assessmen o
he ela ionship be ween he quo a p e e ence le el and he ac ual expo le el is impo an
in e ms o he a i lines ecei ing p e e ences in he p esence o NTMs. The p esen s udy
analyses he ela ionship be ween he size o he alloca ed a i a e quo as and expo
g ow h o unde s and whe he quo a expansion di ec ly a ec s expo g ow h. The e o e,
an econome ic applica ion o ui p oduc s as a case s udy obse ed o he yea s 2004 o
2021 se es o con ibu e o he li e a u e on TRQ p e e ences. Causali y is es ed be ween
he pe mi ed/alloca ed quo a quan i ies and he ac ual expo lows in he p esence o
addi ional iden i ied NTMs o he TRQ i sel .
The ixed e ec s model used in his s udy answe s he ele an ques ions pe aining
o whe he di e ences a e obse able o e ime in e ms o expo le el changes in he
con ex o a panel o i e di e en ui p oduc s’ TRQs. To he au ho ’s knowledge, no such
s udy has been ca ied ou u ilising ui p oduc s’ TRQ da a, and he e is no o he s udy
ha has analysed ui p oduc s’ TRQs as c oss-sec ion uni s o he SA–EU p e e en ial
ade unde p e e ences. No published pape s ha e employed he ixed e ec s model o
examine he ela ionship be ween TRQs, NTMs, and expo s in he con ex o he SA–EU
ui p oduc s ade. By inding ou he ex en o which NTMs ha e an impac on expo s,
his s udy con ibu es o he g owing li e a u e on NTMs’ impac s on ade, in addi ion o
he li e a u e ha examines how ade libe alisa ion a ec s expo s. Using panel da a ha
acks he selec ed TRQs o e ime, he p esen s udy shows ha he magni ude o impac
on expo s is accoun ed o by he in e ac ion o NTMs and high a i s, accoun ing o a
24% dec ease in expo s. The quo a size is signi ican in in luencing expo s, whe ein a 1%
inc ease in he size o he quo a leads o a 2.29% inc ease in expo s.
This pape is o ganised as ollows. A e he in oduc ion, in Sec ion 2, a e iew o
he li e a u e is p o ided, and as pa o he li e a u e e iew, a b ie discussion o he
ins i u ional a angemen s go e ning he Sou h A ica–EU ade o ui p oduc s is gi en.
Fu he o i , a desc ip ion o he applicable amewo k o analysis is p esen ed. Sec ion 3
lays ou he me hodology and he da a sou ces used in his pape , including he empi ical
speci ica ion o he ixed e ec s model. Sec ion 4p esen s he esul s, ollowed by he
conclusion in Sec ion 5.
2. Li e a u e
The b ie p esen a ion o he ins i u ional backg ound and policy en i onmen o
SA–EU ui p oduc s ade is ollowed by he heo e ical and empi ical li e a u e ele an
o his s udy. An ou line o he concep ual amewo k o he s udy is hen p esen ed.
Two s eams o li e a u e ocused upon in his e iew conce n TRQs as ade libe alisa ion
ins umen s and NTMs as ba ie s o expo g ow h. The heo y o ade libe alisa ion
unde lies he p esen s udy whe ein he Hecksche –Ohlin T ade Theo em, as no ed in
Acha ya (2015), is he heo e ical ounda ion. Recognised p ocedu es in ade policy impac
analysis ha e g adually e ol ed, and his p esen s udy’s indings a e placed wi hin he
Economies 2025,13, 1 5 o 23
li e a u e on ade libe alisa ion h ough ee ade ag eemen s (FTAs), which con ain TRQ
obliga ions as he ade libe alisa ion ins umen . In addi ion, e e ence is made o he
NTM li e a u e in he con ex o NTMs as a de e minan o expo g ow h. The li e a u e is
sca ce on he consequences o expo g ow h in he p esence o NTMs o ade ha occu s
unde TRQs.
2.1. B ie Ins i u ional Backg ound and Policy En i onmen o SA–EU F ui s P oduc s T ade
The EU is ea u ed as a majo des ina ion o expo ed commodi ies om de el-
oping coun ies unde TRQs and/o o he ade p e e ences (Shephe d & Wilson,2013;
Ci e a e al.,2016
). Sou h A ica is no excep ion o bene i ing om de eloped na ions’
p e e ences a ge ed a de eloping na ions (Keck & Lendle,2012), gi en he TDCA and he
SADC–EU–EPA.
Be ween he pe iod 2004 and 2016, he ade chap e o med he basis o Sou h A ican
expo s o sensi i e p oduc s on he EU lis , and he ea e , he SADC–EU–EPA eplaced
he ade chap e o he TDCA in 2016. The go e nance o TRQs in SA–EU ade is well
documen ed in a ious documen s and pas s udies (TRALAC,2018;Muchopa e al.,2019;
Kaziboni,2020). I is indica ed ha egis e ed expo e s apply o pe mi s o expo unde
TRQs based on he annual quo as ad e ised in go e nmen gaze es. The e a e speci ic
condi ions ha he applican s mus mee o be eligible o be alloca ed a quo a pe mi , and
hese include expo his o y and ax clea ance. The quo a pe mi holde s a e also expec ed
o comply wi h EU egula ions o expo s, including he ules o o igin and EU SPS, as
well as echnical egula ions. I is also laid down in Council Regula ion (EC) No. 2793/1999
ha ce ain a i line quo as will sui ably be managed h ough impo licenses while o he s
a e managed on a i s -come, i s -se ed basis. Regis e ed expo e s applying o TRQs
g an ed on a i s -come, i s -se ed basis do so h ough he Sou h A ican Re enue Se ice
(SARS), and alloca ions a e made un il he quo a is ull.
A summa y o policy e en s iden i ied o he pe iod unde in es iga ion and ele an
o ui p oduc expo s in Sou h A ica is p esen ed in Table 1.
Table 1. Policy e en s ele an o ui p oduc expo s om Sou h A ica o he EU (2004–2021).
Time Pe iod Policy E en
2004 TDCA came in o ull e ec *
2004 Re iew o he TDCA occu ed and app op ia e amendmen s made
2007 S a o he p ocess o wo k owa ds EPA in ol ing EU, Sou h A ica,
and SADC **
2008
Expo e adminis e ed pe mi s became subjec o he Ag icul u al
Black Economic Empowe men (Ag iBEE) sec o cha e in Sou h
A ica ***
2012 Full implemen a ion o he TDCA— inal phase o a i p e e ences
2013 Accession o C oa ia o he EU
2014 EPA nego ia ions concluded
2016
SADC–EU–EPA signa u e and implemen a ion (EPA eplaced he ade
Chap e o he TDCA). SADC–EU–EPA capped some TRQs and
u he a i libe alisa ion occu ed o some a i lines.
2020 Launch o majo e iew o EU ade policy
2021 S a o SADC–EPA e iew a e 5 yea s o implemen a ion
* No e: The TDCA came in o e ec in 1999. Be ween 2000 and 2004, he ag eemen was p o isionally implemen ed
a e i was signed in 1999, wi h an end da e in 2016. ** T ade- ela ed aspec s o he ag eemen we e delinked om
he TDCA o succeeding TDCA e iews. *** Compliance wi h he B oad-Based Black Economic Empowe men
Ac o 2003 equi ed o TRQ alloca ion and implemen a ion. Sou ce: Au ho elabo a ion based on a ious sou ces.
Du ing his pe iod (2004–2021), se e al policy e en s occu ed in he ade a ange-
men s, which included e isions o he ade ag eemen a e 5-yea implemen a ion in-
Economies 2025,13, 1 6 o 23
e als. In addi ion, a change om he TDCA ading amewo k o he SADC–EU–EPA
amewo k occu ed in he yea 2016 (Eu opean Commission,2022a). As a esul , ce ain
changes also occu ed in he ade policy go e ning he ui p oduc s expo s om Sou h
A ica o he EU, such as he educ ion in he size o TRQs, capping o he quan i ies,
combining some TRQs, as well as he in oduc ion o new TRQs.
2.2. B ie Theo e ical and Empi ical Li e a u e
The ins i u ion o TRQs, including go e nance, is con ained in A icle XIII o he
Gene al Ag eemen on Ta i s and T ade (GATT), which also p o ides la i ude o he WTO
membe coun ies o implemen TRQ adminis a ion me hods o hei choice o he ex en
ha in ce ain ci cums ances he adminis a ion me hod can con o e sially become an
impedimen o ma ke access (Lohma & Skully,2003;Dele ,2023). The adminis a ion o
TRQs, he e o e, has he po en ial o enhance o cons ain ma ke access. The li e a u e on
he economics and unc ioning o TRQs is well es ablished and elabo a ed in he seminal
wo k o Skully (1999a,1999b,2000,2001). Fo u he de ails on expo e -adminis e ed ui
p oduc s’ TRQs g an ed o Sou h A ica by he EU unde he TDCA, see Muchopa e al.
(2019,2020,2021) o a de ailed discussion. The si ua ion o un illed TRQs, such as ha
o he ozen s awbe ies analysed in Muchopa e al. (2021), is a si ua ion an icipa ed in
GATT A icle XII whe e, acco ding o Lohma and Skully (2003), i is es ablished ha i he
impo demand is insu icien , na u ally he e migh be unde - ill o no impo s wi h he
unde s anding ha he TRQ is no an ag eemen o minimum pu chase. Addi ionally, he
TRQ size migh also no be economical o expo e s i he p e e ence amoun is deemed
oo small o an expo e o make meaning ul ade gains.
Bu eau and Tange mann (2000) desc ibe he Eu opean Union TRQs and hei o igin.
Skully (2001) desc ibes he di e en ypes o TRQ adminis a ion sys ems. Based on he
ounda ions o ade libe alisa ion, he lowe ing o a i s is expec ed o dec ease he cos s
o impo ed ood (Thow,2009). Lohma and Skully (2003) use he example o China’s
adminis a ion o TRQs o g ains and co on ollowing a yea o implemen ing he TRQ
sys em ha had been in oduced in 2002 as pa and pa cel o China’s en y in o he WTO
in 2001. E idence is p o ided ha he impo e adminis a ion o a TRQ by China posed
no signi ican dis up ion o impo s in o ha coun y.
Following he pi o al wo k o Abbo (2002) on he adminis a ion o TRQs and unde -
ill p oblems, o he ecen s udies (e.g., Chen e al.,2020;Beckman e al.,2021;Ja a i e al.,
2021;Muchopa,2021) also p o ided e idence on he unde - ill o TRQs. When he quo as
a e no illed, ha si ua ion culmina es in wha Wool ey and Bilal (2017) poin ou o be he
ailu e o ade ag eemen s such as ee ade a eas (FTAs) and/o economic pa ne ship
ag eemen s (EPAs) o al e ma ke access. To ha end, TRQs may be deemed insigni ican
in hei e ec s on global alue chain pa icipa ion by de eloping coun ies ha a e usually
he main a ge s o expo ma ke access policies con ained in FTAs. Ja a i e al. (2021),
in a s udy o he mea and dai y sec o s o he Canada–EU ag eemen , a gue ha TRQs
o en p o ide ba ie s o ade gi en ha he ins umen i sel sca cely ge s ully libe alised.
G an e al. (2022) p esen indings on he i m-le el analysis o China’s TRQs o whea ,
co n, and ice impo in ensi y linked o he adminis a ion o TRQs.
The impo an ela ionships sugges ed in economic heo y elabo a e ha TRQs should
p omo e inc eased expo lows o ma ke s ha would be closed wi hou such an in-
s umen in place. Non- a i measu es, which a e pa o he behind- he-bo de cos s
imposed on impo s, include sani a y and phy osani a y (SPS) measu es, echnical ba ie s
o ade (TBT), and quan i a i e es ic ions and sa egua ds, among o he s (UNCTAD,2012;
Ghodsi,2023
;OECD,2024) and i is no ed in G uble and Rei e (2021) ha NTMs ha e
con inuously been eplacing a i s. Dolabella (2020) ocuses on wo speci ic measu es o
Economies 2025,13, 1 7 o 23
NTMs, namely SPS and TBT, o unde s and hei ela ionship wi h ade. The s udy used
a g a i y model and a e aged e ec s o e a wide ange o HS six-digi p oduc s o ind
ha TBT measu es a e mo e es ic i e han SPS measu es. Ghodsi (2023) explains ha he
p esence o NTMs, speci ically SPS and TBT measu es, is mo i a ed by he need o egula e
he impo ing ma ke in esponse o ma ke ailu e conce ning heal h secu i y and h ea s
o ha m ul p oduc s. Thus, NTMs a e conside ed as ei he enhancing ade o as ba ie s
(Ki piche & Mo al-Beni o,2018), depending on he con ex .
The heo e ical li e a u e on he ela ionship be ween NTMs and expo s in he p o-
cessed ood sec o is ambiguous. Shepo ylo (2016), in a s udy ocusing on NTMs impac ing
sea ood expo s, concludes ha SPS and TBT measu es ha e opposi e e ec s on ade
olumes and ha ac oss HS six-digi p oduc s, he esponse o NTMs is he e ogeneous.
Fall and Langle
(2020), in a s udy on Sou h A ican i ms, conclude ha he i ms bene-
i om ade libe alisa ion measu es in expo ma ke s and, speci ically, wi h posi i e
spillo e e ec s due o NTM libe alisa ion. Ja a i and B i z (2018) asse ha he impac o
FTAs in he mode n day la gely depends on he change in NTMs ha a ec ade cos s.
The indings o he s udy by Cipollina and Dema ia (2020) con i m he ambigu-
i y o he e ec s o non- a i ba ie s in suppo o o he s udies (Shepo ylo,2016;
Ki piche & Mo al-Beni o,2018
;Zainuddin e al.,2020;Tchakoun e & Fianko ,2021). Non-
a i ba ie s we e ound o nega i ely a ec ade in gene al, bu when a dis inc ion
be ween he ypes o ba ie s is made, he au ho s p esen ha he posi i e impac s o SPS
measu es on ade o e come he nega i e impac s p esen ed by TBT measu es and o he
ade ba ie s. The s udy used a s uc u al g a i y model, and he p esence o non- a i
ba ie s was cap u ed by dummies. In conclusion, he s udy o Cipollina and Dema ia
(2020) iden i ies he need o s udies, such as ha conduc ed in he p esen pape , whe e a
di e en indica o o non- a i ba ie s is used in a panel da a se ing o speci ic p oduc s.
The speci ic FTA case s udy is also a ocus o he p esen pape ; hence, i is use ul o
policymake s and ade nego ia o s in ha con ex .
In addi ion o he esul s on NTM impac s being ambiguous, he esul s also a y in
di e en sec o s. NTMs a e also p e alen in non-ag icul u al sec o s, such as he ex ile
example o India analysed in Saini (2011). The impac o NTMs is analysed, e ealing ha
he EU and Uni ed S a es impose a high numbe o NTMs which a e es ic i e in na u e.
The s udy by Saini (2011) also no es he p oli e a ion o NTMs and indica es ha many
NTMs a e a ge ed a de eloping coun ies in a eas such as ex iles and ood p oduc s.
The p esen s udy, he e o e, con ibu es o he li e a u e on s udies analysing he NTMs’
impac s ha a e p e alen in he ood p oduc s sec o imposed by he de eloped na ions
on de eloping coun ies. In he s udy by Saini (2011), i is asse ed ha NTMs a e a ac o
ha is impo an in a ec ing de eloping coun y expo s des ined o de eloped coun ies.
Hence, he p esen s udy will con ol o NTMs in he analysis.
The quan i a i e e ec s o quo a size and NTMs on expo s a e examined in s udies
such as Be den e al. (2009); Ki piche and Mo al-Beni o (2018); and Fall and Langle (2020).
Ki piche and Mo al-Beni o (2018) conclude ha NTMs educed expo g ow h be ween
he ange o 37–74% a he p oduc des ina ion le el. Be den e al.’s (2009) assessmen o
NTMs p esen s ha 25% o NTMs a e conside ed egula o y and canno be elimina ed. In
he con ex o he p esen s udy, i can be expec ed ha while he ade ag eemen be ween
SA and he EU aims o achie e a educ ion in he ade es ic i eness o NTMs, he 25% o
hose ealis ic NTMs sugges ed in Be den e al. will s ill exis (2009).
The new ade heo y, as sugges ed in Meli z (2003), posi s ha he inc ease in cos s o
expo ing will nega i ely impac bo h he quan i y and a ie y o expo s, hence in o ming
he amewo k desc ibed below (Sec ion 2.3) used o analyse da a o he p esen s udy.
The esea ch ques ion in his pape seeks o p o ide an unde s anding o whe he expo s
Economies 2025,13, 1 8 o 23
expand o he sou ce coun y ecei ing TRQs while aking in o accoun he p esence
o NTMs.
2.3. Concep ual F amewo k
Ou lined in Figu e 1is a concep ual amewo k o cap u e he pa hway o ac o s
conside ed in he da a analysis o he p esen s udy. To conside he link be ween TRQs
and NTMs in de e mining expo low, he amewo k is p esen ed in ou domains. The
impac on expo s in his nexus is he empi ical ques ion ha he p esen pape ackles.
Concep ually, wi hin he sec o o which ma ke access is opened, he e is a shi in he
sha e o he expo s among he TRQs, as he incumben i ms a e in ol ed in se e al o he
TRQs. The opening up o ma ke access (i.e., use o he TRQ policy ins umen ) is expec ed
o lead o he expansion o expo s (Vicke s,2018;Gil-Pa eja e al.,2019;
Ajewole e al.,2022
)
as Sou h A ica ecei es p e e en ial access o he ma ke o “EU sensi i e p oduc s”. The
TRQ componen s o he low o ze o in-quo a a i and he size o he quo a which is o e ed
should educe cons ain s, hus en icing Sou h A ican expo e s o expo mo e o he EU,
ye he added ic ions such as he ou -o -quo a a i as well as he numbe o NTMs can
lead o ei he he expansion o con ac ion o expo s (Ki piche & Mo al-Beni o,2018;
Cipollina & Dema ia,2020).
Economies 2025, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 o 24
The new ade heo y, as sugges ed in Meli (2003), posi s ha he inc ease in cos s
o expo ing will nega i ely impac bo h he quan i y and a ie y o expo s, hence in-
o ming he amewo k desc ibed below (Sec ion 2.3) used o analyse da a o he p esen
s udy. The esea ch ques ion in his pape seeks o p o ide an unde s anding o whe he
expo s expand o he sou ce coun y ecei ing TRQs while aking in o accoun he p es-
ence o NTMs.
2.3. Concep ual F amewo k
Ou lined in Figu e 1 is a concep ual amewo k o cap u e he pa hway o ac o s
conside ed in he da a analysis o he p esen s udy. To conside he link be ween TRQs
and NTMs in de e mining expo flow, he amewo k is p esen ed in ou domains. The
impac on expo s in his nexus is he empi ical ques ion ha he p esen pape ackles.
Concep ually, wi hin he sec o o which ma ke access is opened, he e is a shi in he
sha e o he expo s among he TRQs, as he incumben fi ms a e in ol ed in se e al o
he TRQs. The opening up o ma ke access (i.e., use o he TRQ policy ins umen ) is
expec ed o lead o he expansion o expo s (Vicke s, 2018; Gil-Pa eja e al., 2019; Ajewole
e al., 2022) as Sou h A ica ecei es p e e en ial access o he ma ke o “EU sensi i e
p oduc s”. The TRQ componen s o he low o ze o in-quo a a iff and he size o he quo a
which is offe ed should educe cons ain s, hus en icing Sou h A ican expo e s o ex-
po mo e o he EU, ye he added ic ions such as he ou -o -quo a a iff as well as he
numbe o NTMs can lead o ei he he expansion o con ac ion o expo s (Ki piche &
Mo al-Beni o, 2018; Cipollina & Dema ia, 2020).
Figu e 1. Concep ual F amewo k—componen s o TRQs as de e minan s o expo flows. Sou ce:
Au ho elabo a ion.
The fi s column, p esen ed as he ade enabling en i onmen , heo ises he iden i-
fica ion o he offensi e lis o p oduc s ( o he expo e ), which in o ms he basis o he
TRQs included in he FTA nego ia ions o he TRQs. The ade enabling en i onmen
comp ises and includes he p oduc s ha a e on Sou h A ica’s offensi e lis in he ade
nego ia ions ha can be awa ded ma ke access on he EU-sensi i e lis o ui p oduc s
h ough he TRQ ins umen as obliga ed in he ade ag eemen . The Eu opean
T ade
enabling
En i onmen
•-> O ensi e
lis o p oduc s
in o ming
ade
nego ia ing
posi ions o
TRQs in FTAs
•-> TRQ
obliga ions &
go e nance
De e minan
•-> TRQ quo a
size
•-> TRQ le el
(in- and ou -o -
quo a)
•-> NTMs
Ou come
•-> Filled quo a
•-> Un illed
quo a
Impac
•-> Expansion o
expo s
•-> Con ac ion
o expo s
•-> Ze o expo s
Figu e 1. Concep ual F amewo k—componen s o TRQs as de e minan s o expo lows. Sou ce:
Au ho elabo a ion.
The i s column, p esen ed as he ade enabling en i onmen , heo ises he iden i ica-
ion o he o ensi e lis o p oduc s ( o he expo e ), which in o ms he basis o he TRQs
included in he FTA nego ia ions o he TRQs. The ade enabling en i onmen comp ises
and includes he p oduc s ha a e on Sou h A ica’s o ensi e lis in he ade nego ia ions
ha can be awa ded ma ke access on he EU-sensi i e lis o ui p oduc s h ough he
TRQ ins umen as obliga ed in he ade ag eemen . The Eu opean Commission (2022b), in
explaining he use o TRQs, acknowledges ha , conside ably o he ag icul u al sec o , he
EU ag eemen s pu pose ully p o ec sensi i e sec o s when p o iding ma ke access. The
TRQ obliga ions and p o isions con ained in he FTA, he e o e, spell ou he de e minan s
comp ising he componen s o a TRQ (size and a i s, as well as how NTMs a e pe cei ed).
The de e minan s in luence he illing o he a ailed quo a, which ul ima ely mani es s in
he changes (expansion, con ac ion, o ze o low) in expo s.
Economies 2025,13, 1 15 o 23
Economies 2025, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 o 24
Figu e 2. Numbe o NTMs by TRQ (2004–2021). Sou ce: Au ho ’s elabo a ion using WTO I-ITIP
da a.
An es ima ion o he se ies plo s o he expo s, quo a le el/size, and he numbe o
NTMs (Figu e 3) shows a dec ease in expo s associa ed wi h a massi e NTMs spike com-
mon o e e y TRQ owa ds he end o he da a analysis ime pe iod. This is also he pe iod
associa ed wi h he change in he ade egime om he TDCA o he EPA. The canned
(pea s, ap ico s, and peaches) and he ui mix u es’ TRQs labelled as (2) and (3), espec-
i ely, in Figu e 3 show he gap be ween he quo a size and expo s widening as NTMs
inc ease o e he obse ed 18-yea pe iod. As he quo a size a ailed by he EU con inued
o inc ease, he Sou h A ican expo s slowed down u he , which is unexpec ed gi en
he associa ed educ ion in a iffs and ha he in en ion in he ade p o isions was o
g an and expand u he ma ke access o he sensi i e p oduc s. E iden ly, he NTMs
play a coun e p oduc i e ole in he quo a p e e ences, whe he ha is by in en ion o no .
Figu e 2. Numbe o NTMs by TRQ (2004–2021). Sou ce: Au ho ’s elabo a ion using WTO I-ITIP da a.
Economies 2025, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 o 24
Figu e 3. Se ies plo o expo s, quo a le els, and numbe o NTMs by TRQ (2004–2021). Sou ce:
Au ho ’s elabo a ion using WTO I-ITIP da a.
Uniquely, he ozen o ange juice TRQ labelled (4) is he only TRQ o which he
quo a was exhaus ed in all yea s, ega dless o he numbe o NTMs o e he pe iod ana-
lysed. The si ua ion o ozen s awbe ies labelled (1) is clea ly an ou lie , gi en ha ze o
expo s we e eco ded. This TRQ also expe ienced a high o al numbe o NTMs in 2016
in compa ison o he o he TRQs. The apple and pineapple juice TRQ indica ed as (5) also
shows an in e es ing pae n whe ein he e a e pe iods in which he expo ed quan i ies
exceed he a ailable gua an eed quo a. The implica ion is ha all he expo s ou side he
quo a would be cha ged he highe MFN a iff ins ead o he in-quo a a iff. The e is,
he e o e, oom o nego ia e o an inc eased quo a o ha pa icula TRQ. Fu he pa -
e ns ha can be iewed in he figu e pe ain o TRQs (3) and (4), which show ha he
change in egime om he TDCA o he EPA esul ed in a educ ion in he size o he
quo a o he yea 2004 alues, in con as o he educ ion o TRQ (2), which was no
d as ic. Bu as he doed line in he figu e shows, ha TRQ was capped unde he EPA,
hence, he line is ho izon al and no ending upwa ds. In e ms o he size o he quo a,
i can be iewed om he diag am ha he o de om highes o lowes quo a size is (2),
(3), (5), (4), and (1). The quo as (2), (3), and (5) we e educed om hei p e ious yea , as
shown by a s ep down in he doed line o he pe iod which coincides wi h he yea 2016.
4.2. Panel Model Reg ession Resul s
The panel model eg ession esul s a e p esen ed in Table 7.
Table 7. Reg ession esul s—panel da a es ima ion.
Va iable
Dep. Va iable—Expo
Quan i y
Model 1: Common E -
ec s
Model 2: Random E -
ec s
Model 3: Model 4: Fixed E ec s
Coe i-
cien
(P ob.)
-S a is ic Coe icien
(P ob.) -S a is ic
Coe i-
cien
(P ob.)
-S a is ic
Coe icien
(P ob.) -S a is ic
Figu e 3. Se ies plo o expo s, quo a le els, and numbe o NTMs by TRQ (2004–2021). Sou ce:
Au ho ’s elabo a ion using WTO I-ITIP da a.
Uniquely, he ozen o ange juice TRQ labelled (4) is he only TRQ o which he
quo a was exhaus ed in all yea s, ega dless o he numbe o NTMs o e he pe iod
analysed. The si ua ion o ozen s awbe ies labelled (1) is clea ly an ou lie , gi en ha
ze o expo s we e eco ded. This TRQ also expe ienced a high o al numbe o NTMs
in 2016 in compa ison o he o he TRQs. The apple and pineapple juice TRQ indica ed
as (5) also shows an in e es ing pa e n whe ein he e a e pe iods in which he expo ed
Economies 2025,13, 1 16 o 23
quan i ies exceed he a ailable gua an eed quo a. The implica ion is ha all he expo s
ou side he quo a would be cha ged he highe MFN a i ins ead o he in-quo a a i .
The e is, he e o e, oom o nego ia e o an inc eased quo a o ha pa icula TRQ. Fu he
pa e ns ha can be iewed in he igu e pe ain o TRQs (3) and (4), which show ha he
change in egime om he TDCA o he EPA esul ed in a educ ion in he size o he quo a
o he yea 2004 alues, in con as o he educ ion o TRQ (2), which was no d as ic. Bu
as he do ed line in he igu e shows, ha TRQ was capped unde he EPA, hence, he line
is ho izon al and no ending upwa ds. In e ms o he size o he quo a, i can be iewed
om he diag am ha he o de om highes o lowes quo a size is (2), (3), (5), (4), and
(1). The quo as (2), (3), and (5) we e educed om hei p e ious yea , as shown by a s ep
down in he do ed line o he pe iod which coincides wi h he yea 2016.
4.2. Panel Model Reg ession Resul s
The panel model eg ession esul s a e p esen ed in Table 7.
Table 7. Reg ession esul s—panel da a es ima ion.
Va iable
Dep. Va iable—Expo Quan i y
Model 1: Common E ec s Model 2: Random E ec s Model 3: Model 4: Fixed E ec s
Coe icien
(P ob.) -S a is ic Coe icien
(P ob.) -S a is ic Coe icien
(P ob.) -S a is ic Coe icien
(P ob.) -S a is ic
Cons an −0.176266
(0.7518) −0.317875 −0.656740
(0.0000) −0.788388 1.825550
(0.0290) 2.263611 −8.680788
(0.1330) −1.53056
Quo a Le el (QTL) 0.976633
(0.0000) 16.26097 1.015345
(0.0000) 11.34599 0.936339
(0.0000) 14.54079 2.294642
(0.0042) 3.019369
Numbe o NTMs
(NTM)
−0.032811
(0.8242) −0.223154 −0.122755
(0.4658) −0.734382 −2.636021
(0.0005) −3.812462
0.135514
(0.6708) 0.427883
[Numbe o NTMs] ×[Abo e
mean in-quo a a i ]
(HIGHIQT)
- - - - - - −0.243652
(0.0011) −3.48854
[Numbe o NTMs] ×[Below
mean in-quo a a i ]
(LOWIQT)
- - - - - - −0.017846
(0.7944) −0.26219
Economic Pa ne ship Ag eemen
Dummy
(EPA)
- - - - - - 0.888201
(0.7549) 0.314194
[Economic Pa ne ship Ag eemen
Dummy] ×[ Quo a Le el]
(EPAQTL)
- - - - - - −0.000187
(0.6850) −0.40828
[Abo e mean ou -o -quo a a i ]
×[ Quo a Le el]
(HIGHMFN)
- - - - - - −0.000584
(0.1134) −1.61531
[Below mean ou - o -quo a a i ]
×[ Quo a Le el]
(LOWMFN)
- - - - - - −0.000132
(0.0387) −2.13078
[Numbe o NTMs] ×[ Quo a
Le el] (NTMQTL) - - - - - - 3.35 ×10−6
(0.0189) 2.436716
R-squa ed
P ob(F-s a is ic)
0.828002
0.000000
0.669019
0.000000
0.867703
0.000000
0.856927
0.000000
Du bin–Wa son S a 0.848520 0.881291 0.958774 1.479978
Based on he R-squa ed, i is e iden ha he p edic o a iables a e s ong in explain-
ing he expo s o ui p oduc s. The p- alue o he F es is less han 0.05, showing ha
he p edic o a iables a e signi ican in simul aneously in luencing he expo s o ui
p oduc s. Di e en se s o model esul s a e p esen ed wi h he dependen a iable as
he loga i hm o expo s. The p obabili ies o each es ima ed coe icien a e p esen ed in
pa en heses below he ele an coe icien . Models 1 o 3 a e he common, andom, and
ixed e ec s, espec i ely, and wo eg esso s, quo a size and he numbe o NTMs a e
included in hose models. Model 4 is he ull FE model, which includes in e ac ion e ms as
p esen ed in Equa ion (4). While Model 4 also con ols he di e ence in ade egimes, i.e.,
Economies 2025,13, 1 17 o 23
he change in policies pe aining o he TRQs, he R
2
o Models 3 and 4 emain in he same
ballpa k, wi h 86% o he a ia ion in expo s being explained by he independen a iables.
Discussion o Resul s Including Policy Implica ions
The quo a size (QTL) coe icien s in all models a e s a is ically signi ican , and he
signs emain posi i e, indica ing ha an inc ease in quo a le el posi i ely impac s expo
quan i ies. The quo a a iable can, he e o e, be deemed a no ewo hy explana o y a iable.
Gi en ha he coe icien o quo a size (QTL) is posi i e and signi ican , he indings
sugges ha he quo a size is e ec i e in in luencing expo s. The posi i e e ec on expo s
sugges s ha he quo a size, which, as a componen o he TRQ policy, is mean o inc ease
ma ke access o Sou h A ican expo s des ined o he EU, is e ec i e. The indings also
show ha he QTL e ec on expo s is la ge when no in e ac ing wi h NTMs, as can be
no ed wi h he a iable NTMQTL in Model 4. The e o e, he indings sugges ha he
quo a size needs o be inc eased, and NTMs need o be educed. The magni ude o he
impac o he quo a size on expo s is also la ge when all he con ol a iables a e included,
as can be seen in Model 4.
In Model 3, he esul s o quo a le el and he numbe o NTMs a e signi ican a 1%
based on p ob. 0.0000 and 0.0005, espec i ely. The Sou h A ican expo s unde each o
he i e TRQs a e di ec ly p opo ional o he quo a le el g an ed by he EU unde he
bila e al ag eemen . Howe e , an in e se ela ionship is obse ed be ween expo s and
he numbe o NTMs p esen . A 1% inc ease in he numbe o NTMs is associa ed wi h a
2.63% dec ease in he expo s o ui p oduc s om Sou h A ica o he EU. This, howe e ,
is lowe han he ange o 37–74% o he educ ion in expo s due o NTMs, as concluded in
Ki piche and Mo al-Beni o (2018). This inding is in line wi h Rial (2014), who no es ha
o each addi ional NTM imposed, ag i- ood expo s could be educed o be ween 3 and 5%.
In conclusion, he p esence o NTMs in he ui p oduc s ade is no expo -enhancing,
a he , he ypes o NTMs in place discou age expo s. The policy implica ions needing he
a en ion o ade policy nego ia o s a e ha , on he one hand, he quo a le els alloca ed by
he EU need o be inc eased o p omo e expo g ow h o each TRQ, whils , a he same
ime, he p e alence o NTMs mus be educed, gi en hei nega i e impac on expo s.
This can be achie ed by inco po a ing mo e p ecise p o isions in he ele an chap e s
o annexes o he FTA, and such p o isions can be aimed a acili a ing ade h ough he
educ ion o non-heal h- ela ed NTMs. Suppo could also be p o ided o expo e s o
educe he cos bu den o compliance.
The a e age e ec on expo s o he quo a size and o he NTMs impac s a e conside ed
sepa a ely in Model 3, whe eas in Model 4, he quo a size a iable has bo h di ec and
indi ec e ec s. In Model 4, bo h he quo a size a iable (QTL) and he in e ac ion a iable
(QTLNTM) a e signi ican . The quo a size has a smalle posi i e e ec on expo s when
NTMs a e p esen . The nega i e impac on expo s is la gely h ough he in e ac ion o
NTMs and high in-quo a a i s, HIGHIQT (
−
24%). A one-uni inc ease in he indica o
causes expo s o dec ease by 0.24. The e o e, expo s dec ease by 24%, illus a ing he
indi ec e ec s o NTMs on expo s. This inding is consis en wi h Ja a i and B i z (2018),
who no e ha he change in NTMs, which a ec s ade cos s, ul ima ely impac s FTAs.
The coe icien o he quo a size, as o he NTMs, g ows la ge in Model 4. The sign
on he coe icien s di e s o NTMs impac o Models 3 and 4. The sign changes om
nega i e in Model 3 o posi i e in Model 4, which includes mo e explana o y a iables.
In line wi h he o he li e a u e (Shepo ylo,2016;Fall & Langle,2020), he NTM a iable
has an expec ed, ambiguous esul , wi h a nega i e sign in Models 1–3 and a posi i e
sign in Model 4. Howe e , only in Model 3 is he coe icien signi ican , wi h he g ea e
magni ude o a educ ion o 2.6% in expo s caused by NTMs. The posi i e, hough
Economies 2025,13, 1 18 o 23
insigni ican , NTMs coe icien in Model 4 sugges s ha NTMs a e in place o enhance
expo s, and his has a policy implica ion ha he imposi ion o expo -enhancing NTMs
can be e ec i e in p omo ing g ea e ma ke access, hus closely aligning wi h he indings
in Tchakoun e and Fianko (2021).
The EPA con ol dummy ( esul 0.89) included in Model 4 is no signi ican , bu he
esul has he expec ed sign o he coe icien , implying ha he EPA p oduces mo e
expo s han he p e ious ade ag eemen , he TDCA. Fo he EPAQTL in e ac ion, he
esul s show ha he EPA d i es he QTL and no ice e sa. This eason is s aigh o wa d,
gi en ha he quo a concessions we e made based on he ade egime. Conside ing he
NTMQTL in e ac ion e m, he coe icien explains he e ec and ice- e sa. This is o say
ha he e ec o he QTL on expo s is condi ional on NTMs and ice- e sa, showing how
he e ec o NTMs is condi ional on he quo a size. The NTMQTL a iable is a signi ican
a iable. The impac o NTMs on expo s is no signi ican when he QTL is ze o. This is
expec ed: no quo a, no expo s o sensi i e p oduc s due o he p ohibi i e MFN a i s. The
impac o he QTL (2.29%) on expo s when he e a e no NTMs is s a is ically signi ican
and is g ea e han he impac o he QTLNTM (3.35
×
10
−6
) on expo s. In he p esence o
NTMs, he inc ease in expo s is hus much smalle a he gi en quo a size. Signi ican ly,
he in e ac ion e m gi es e idence o he nega i e impac o he NTMs. This inding
is in line wi h
Zainuddin e al.’s (2020
) inding ha NTMs ela ed o heal h s anda ds
dis o ade. Fu he o hese indings, he p esen s udy aligns wi h he sugges ion
in
Zainuddin e al. (2020
) ha NTM implemen a ion needs policy a en ion o minimise
nega i e ade impac s possibly a ising om compliance cos s.
In-quo a a i s and MFN a i s a e no sepa a ely included as con ol a iables in
he eg ession, speci ically gi en ha he TRQ ope a es wholly comp ising he quo a
quan i y/size and in- and ou -o -quo a a i s. The in e ac ion e m is, he e o e, wha is
conside ed impo an in he de e mina ion o he expo s. The indica o a iables p esen ed
in he model ha e signi ican coe icien s o HIGHIQT and LOWMFN. HIGHIQT, which
is he in e ac ion o he NTM wi h he abo e mean in-quo a a i , leads o a dec ease
in expo s (
−
0.24). A uni inc ease in he indica o leads o a 24% dec ease in expo s.
This esul suppo s G an e al. (2015) on he es ic i eness o NTMs in ag icul u al
expo s. LOWMFN, which is he below mean MFN in e ac ion wi h quo a size, is no
highly signi ican , and he e ec is sligh (small) on expo s. A uni inc ease in he indica o
leads o a 0.01% dec ease in expo s. Gi en he exis ing unde - ill o quo as, he expec a ion
is ha no expo s occu ou side o he quo a whe e he MFN a i would be cha ged.
4.3. Tes o he Validi y o he Fixed E ec s
The esul s o he F- es in Table 8show an es ima ed F-s a is ic o 9.75 ha has a
p- alue o 0.0000. The null hypo hesis is he e o e ejec ed, showing ha he ixed e ec s
a e no edundan . The in e p e ed esul s o model 4 a e, he e o e, alid. Addi ionally,
he FE model was also sui able o analysis gi en ha he sample es ima ed was an ex-
an e p ede e mined selec ion o ui p oduc s’ TRQs common o bo h he TDCA and
SADC–EU–EPA.
Table 8. C oss-sec ion ixed e ec s es .
Redundan Fixed E ec s Tes s Tes
C oss-Sec ion Fixed E ec s
E ec s Tes S a is ic d. . P ob.
C oss-sec ion F 9.754498 (4,44) 0.0000
C oss-sec ion Chi-squa e 36.822326 4 0.0000
Economies 2025,13, 1 19 o 23
The ac o s ha a y ac oss TRQs bu a e ime-in a ian wi hin he TRQs a e e-
po ed in Table 9. The in e cep es ima es we e used o analyse he ex en o he TRQs’
he e ogenei y and o es ablish he TRQs o in e es in he ui p oduc s sec o .
Table 9. C oss-sec ion (TRQ) ixed e ec s.
TRQ ID E ec
F ozen S awbe ies −1.750448
Canned Pea s, Ap ico s, and Peaches 1.346671
F ui Mix u es −2.537186
F ozen O ange Juice −0.358754
Apple Juice 1.743138
The e a e some unobse ed e ec s ha enhance he e ec s o expo s in he canned
pea s, ap ico s, and peaches TRQ, as well as he apple juice TRQ. Hence, he pe o mance
o hese TRQs is impo an o access he EU ma ke . Fac o s associa ed wi h ozen s aw-
be ies, canned ui mix u es, and ozen o ange juice inhibi he TRQ expo pe o mance.
Pe aining, he e o e, o he nego ia ions on TRQs, he ocus needs o be on nego ia ing o
he expansion o he mos p oduc i e TRQs and con ac ing he leas p oduc i e concessions.
5. Conclusions and Policy Recommenda ions
This s udy ela es o he policy a ea o ade in p ocessed ui p oduc s managed
h ough a i a e quo as. The poin o depa u e in he p esen pape is he unde u ilisa ion
o quo a p e e ences in ade ag eemen s. Despi e he suppo o he use o unila e al TRQs
in ee ade ag eemen s as a means o enable he ade o ag icul u al p oduc s in es ic ed
p ocessed ood sec o s, he pe sis en unde - ill o quo as has igni ed some deba es on he
sui abili y o he ins umen as a ade libe alisa ion ool. Ques ions, he e o e, a ise ela ing
o he TRQ ool’s abili y o imp o e expo g ow h. The quo a size componen o he TRQ
is conside ed expo enhancing, bu he e is a long-s anding ques ion abou he e idence
o ha . To ga he some e idence, his s udy analysed he esponse o he ui p oduc s
expo ed o he Eu opean Union by Sou h A ica unde ade libe alisa ion p e e ences
be ween 2004 and 2021. The conside a ions in his ins ance sough o ind whe he expo s
inc ease a e con olling o quo a size, NTMs, a i s, and policy change/ ade ag eemen
obliga ions. This pape con ibu es o he b oade li e a u e on TRQs as policy ins umen s
in ade ag eemen s, wi h he ca ea ha no all TRQs o he EU–SA ade ag eemen a e
analysed— he ocus is on ui p oduc s’ TRQs common o he wo ade egimes o he
TDCA and he SADC–EU–EPA.
By speci ying a ixed e ec s model ha included in e ac ion a iables based on he
h ee TRQ componen s o he quo a size, in-quo a a i s, and ou -o -quo a a i s, he e ec s
o NTMs and he h ee TRQ componen s we e hus de angled in he analysis. This s udy’s
indings suppo he obse a ion o he inc ease in he numbe o NTMs. The change in
he ade egime in he SA–EU ade wi nessed an inc ease in NTMs o all TRQs. The
new ading egime is cha ac e ised by an expansion in TRQ ma ke access and a u he
educ ion in he a i s. Howe e , i is e iden ha NTMs ha e come in o play a g ea e ole
as he p e alence o un illed TRQs has con inued. These s udy indings ha e, he e o e,
shown how ac ual ade policy ou comes compa e o he aspi a ions o wha he TRQs
should ha e achie ed, and in ha ega d, he p esen pape has added o he exis ing
li e a u e on he nexus o TRQs and NTMs. The indings sugges a posi i e ela ionship
be ween he quo a size and expo s. The in e ac ion e ms ha we e ound o be signi ican
enabled he cap u ing o he ela ionship o he model a iables and, mo eo e , showed
ha he e ec o addi ional NTMs on expo s also depends on he size o he quo a. When
Economies 2025,13, 1 20 o 23
NTMs a e p e alen , he in-quo a a i educ ions become in e io ela i e o imp o ing
impo s. In he case o he ozen s awbe ies TRQ ha , uniquely, ha e no been aded
unde he gi en quo a p e e ence, u he s udies could in es iga e whe he he e could
be ixed cos s ha ac as p ohibi i e ade ba ie s leading o ze o expo lows, assuming
he e is adequa e demand in he EU ma ke .
The e a e wo obse a ions o ponde ega ding he TRQ policy ins umen ha ha e
ade policy implica ions. Fi s ly, he quo a size is an impo an de e minan o he le el o
expo s; hence, access o expo ma ke s depends on i . Secondly, ade policymake s ace
he double challenge o how o ensu e ade policy enables a i educ ion while ensu ing
NTMs a e no nega i ely impac ing expo s. Gi en he indings ha , a a gi en quo a size,
he inc ease in expo s is small due o he p esence o NTMs, ade policy nego ia ions need
o keep ocussing on nego ia ing obliga ions ha a ge NTM educ ion.
Funding: This esea ch ecei ed no ex e nal unding.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : The da a p esen ed in his s udy is publicly a ailable on he WTO and
TARIC da abases.
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho decla es no con lic s o in e es .
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