Muñoz S., E cio
Wo king Pape
The geog aphy o in e gene a ional mobili y in La in
Ame ica and he Ca ibbean
IDB Wo king Pape Se ies, No. IDB-WP-01620
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
In e -Ame ican De elopmen Bank (IDB), Washing on, DC
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Muñoz S., E cio (2024) : The geog aphy o in e gene a ional mobili y in La in
Ame ica and he Ca ibbean, IDB Wo king Pape Se ies, No. IDB-WP-01620, In e -Ame ican
De elopmen Bank (IDB), Washing on, DC,
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The Geog aphy o In e gene a ional Mobili y
in La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean
E cio Muñoz
WORKING PAPER No IDB-WP-01620
In e -
A
me ican De elopmen Bank
Gende and Di e si y Di ision
July 2024
The Geog aphy o In e gene a ional Mobili y
in La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean
E cio Muñoz
In e -
A
me ican De elopmen Bank
Gende and Di e si y Di ision
J
uly 2024
Ca aloging-in-Publica ion da a p o ided by he
In e -Ame ican De elopmen Bank
Felipe He e a Lib a y
Muñoz, E cio.
The geog aphy o in e gene a ional mobili y in La in Ame ica and he
Ca ibbean / E cio Muñoz.
p. cm. — (IDB Wo king Pape Se ies ; 1620)
Includes bibliog aphical e e ences.
1. Educa ion-Economic aspec s-La in Ame ica. 2. Educa ion-Social aspec s-
La in Ame ica. 3. Educa ion-Economic aspec s-Ca ibbean A ea. 4. Educa ion-
Social aspec s-Ca ibbean A ea. 5. Economic de elopmen -E ec o educa ion
on-La in Ame ica. 6. Economic de elopmen -E ec o educa ion on-
Ca ibbean A ea. I. In e -Ame ican De elopmen Bank. Gende and Di e si y
Di ision. II. Ti le. III. Se ies.
IDB-WP-1620
JEL codes: D63, I24, J62.
Keywo ds: Socioeconomic mobili y, Educa ion, La in Ame ica and he
Ca ibbean.
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The Geog aphy o In e gene a ional Mobili y in
La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean∗
E cio Mu˜noz†
Abs ac
This pape es ima es in e gene a ional mobili y in educa ion using da a om 91
censuses in 24 coun ies in La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean spanning o e hal a cen-
u y. I measu es upwa d mobili y as he likelihood ha indi iduals will comple e one
educa ional s age mo e han hei pa en s (p ima y educa ion o hose whose pa en s
did no inish p ima y school, o seconda y educa ion o hose whose pa en s did no
comple e seconda y school). I measu es downwa d mobili y as he likelihood ha an
indi idual will ail o comple e a le el o educa ion (p ima y o seconda y) ha hei
pa en s did a ain. In addi ion, he pape explo es he geog aphy o educa ional in-
e gene a ional mobili y using nea ly 400 “p o inces” and mo e han 6,000 “dis ic s,”
inding s ubs an ial c oss-coun y a nd w i hin-coun y h e e ogenei y. I d ocumen s a
decline in he mobili y gap be ween u ban and u al popula ions and small di e ences
by gende . I also inds ha u pwa d m obili y i s i nc easing a nd d ownwa d mobili y
is dec easing o e ime. Wi hin coun ies, he le el o mobili y co ela es closely o
he sha e o he p eceding gene a ion ha comple ed p ima y school. In addi ion, up-
wa d mobili y is nega i ely co ela ed wi h dis ance o he capi al and he sha e o he
wo k o ce employed in ag icul u e, bu is posi i ely co ela ed wi h he sha e o he
wo k o ce employed in indus y. The opposi e is ue o downwa d mobili y.
JEL-Codes: D63, I24, J62.
Keywo ds:Socioeconomic mobili y, Educa ion, La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean.
∗I hank Benne Callaghan, Miles Co ak, Ch is os Giannikos, Ma co Ranaldi, Nu ia Rod iguez-Planas,
Roy an de Weide, and Wim Vij e be g, and se e al semina /con e ence pa icipan s o hei help ul
commen s, as well as Pablo Va gas and Joaquin P ie o o hei ou s anding esea ch assis ance. I am deeply
g a e ul o he inancial suppo o he Cen e o La in Ame ican, Ca ibbean and La ino S udies a CUNY
and he Ma io Capelloni disse a ion ellowship om CUNY. The iews exp essed in his pape a e hose o
he au ho and should no be a ibu ed o he In e -Ame ican De elopmen Bank.
†Email: [email p o ec ed] g. In e -Ame ican De elopmen Bank, 1300 New Yo k A enue NW, Washing on,
D.C. 20577, Uni ed S a es.
1
I In oduc ion
Measu ing in e gene a ional mobili y (IGM) a a geog aphically disagg ega ed le el can shed
ligh on localized pa e ns and d i e s o IGM, as a gued in Na ayan e al. (2018) and shown
in he seminal wo k o Che y, Hend en, Kline, and Saez (2014) o he Uni ed S a es. This
ype o analysis has no ye been conduc ed in he coun ies o La in Ame ica and he
Ca ibbean (LAC) due o he inadequacy o mos su ey da a o his pu pose. This wo k
aims o ill ha gap in he li e a u e by gene a ing es ima es o IGM in educa ion a smalle
geog aphical le els.
In his pape , I es ima e in e gene a ional mobili y in educa ion o coun ies in LAC
a he na ional and subna ional le el using da a om 91 censuses. The analysis co e s 24
coun ies and spans o e hal a cen u y ( om 1960 o 2012). I ollow he empi ical app oach
o Alesina, Hohmann, Michalopoulos, and Papaioannou (2021), which elies on samples o
co esiden s (i.e., child en li ing wi h hei pa en s o olde ela i es) and allows me o c ea e
indica o s ha a e highly compa able o hose ecen ly es ima ed o 27 coun ies in A ica,
a egion ha , like LAC, has high income inequali y le els (see Al a edo & Gaspa ini,2015),
despi e i s lowe le els o income and highe po e y a es.1This app oach ocuses on he
mos disad an aged popula ion in e ms o educa ional a ainmen (a la ge sha e o pa en s
in he sample a ained less han p ima y educa ion) and minimizes he po en ial impac o
co esidence bias, since low le els o educa ional comple ion can be measu ed wi h a high
deg ee o con idence be ween ages 14 and 18 (see Munoz & Si a egna,2023).
Es ima es o upwa d mobili y, measu ed as a pe son’s likelihood o inishing p ima y
educa ion when hei pa en s ailed o inish p ima y school, show wide c oss-coun y he -
e ogenei y. The same is ue o es ima es o downwa d mobili y, measu ed as he likelihood
o a pe son ailing o comple e p ima y school when hei pa en s did a ain ha le el o
educa ion. In LAC, he dis ance be ween he mos and leas upwa dly mobile coun ies is
simila o wha has been ecen ly documen ed in A ica, al hough he leas mobile coun ies
in A ica a e less mobile han he leas mobile coun y in LAC. I ind only small di e ences
in mobili y by gende , bu I documen a decline in he mobili y gap be ween u ban and
u al popula ions. Upwa d mobili y is inc easing o e ime, while downwa d mobili y is
dec easing.
A he sub-na ional le el, mobili y is he e ogeneous ac oss dis ic s/p o inces. Some
coun ies show lowe le els o mobili y in he no he n egions (e.g., B azil), whe eas he
opposi e is ue o Mexico. Howe e , he e is much less a iabili y in coun ies wi h ewe
1An impo an s ylized ac in he li e a u e on IGM is i s nega i e associa ion wi h income inequali y
(see Co ak,2013). Hence, one could expec IGM le els in LAC o be simila o hose in A ica.
2
egions and smalle popula ions. Mobili y a he sub-na ional le el is highly posi i ely co e-
la ed o he sha e o he p eceding gene a ion ha comple ed p ima y school, which sugges s
ha he ac o s a ec ing educa ional a ainmen a e pe sis en . In addi ion, geog aphical
co ela es do no appea o be highly associa ed wi h mobili y, wi h he excep ion o dis ance
o he capi al. Simila ly, some p oxies o economic de elopmen , like sha e o he wo k o ce
employed in indus y and ag icul u e a he beginning o he sample pe iod, seem o be
associa ed wi h mobili y a he dis ic le el.
I.1 Rela ed li e a u e
The e is a g owing body o li e a u e on he associa ion be ween pa en s’ and adul chil-
d en’s socioeconomic ou comes, which can be e e ed o as in e gene a ional mobili y. A
he heo e ical le el, he wo kho se model o hinking abou he mechanisms o ansmis-
sion o ad an age be ween gene a ions was de eloped by Becke and Tomes (1979,1986).
The empi ical li e a u e has measu ed IGM using a a ie y o indica o s (see Deu sche &
Mazumde ,2023, o a syn hesis o app oaches) ha cap u e di e en aspec s o he phe-
nomena. Simila ly, IGM has been s udied using a ange o ou comes, including income and
educa ion.
Resea ch on IGM in income has mainly ocused on de eloped coun ies (see Black &
De e eux,2011, o a su ey). Ea ly es ima es mos ly cen e ed on he Uni ed S a es (e.g.,
Solon,1992) and, la e , on how he Uni ed S a es compa es o o he de eloped coun ies
(e.g., Bjo klund & Jan i,1997). Gi en he challenges associa ed wi h inding sui able da a
se s, es ima es o income mobili y o de eloping coun ies a e sca ce and ha e only ecen ly
s a ed o inc ease (see Em an & Shilpi,2021, o ecen su eys ocused on de eloping
coun ies). Recen pape s on IGM in income ha e ocused on documen ing pa e ns a he
sub-na ional le el. In a seminal wo k, Che y e al. (2014) shows subs an ial a ia ion in
income mobili y ac oss commu ing zones in he Uni ed S a es. Se e al o he s show geo-
g aphical pa e ns o o he coun ies ( o example, Co ak,2020;Co ´es O ihuela e al.,
2023;G.C. B i o, Fonseca, Pino i, Sampaio, & Wa wa ,2022;G¨uell, Pellizza i, Pica, &
Rod ´ıguez Mo a,2018).
Resea ch on IGM in educa ion has been mo e global, in pa because o be e da a
a ailabili y (see To che,2021, o ecen su eys ocused on de eloping coun ies). He z
e al. (2007) documen ed mobili y o 52 coun ies, including se en in La in Ame ica, and
concluded ha his egion has he highes le el o pe sis ence, while No dic coun ies ha e he
lowes . Mo e ecen ly, Van de Weide, Lakne , Mahle , Na ayan, and Gup a (2024) c ea ed
a new da abase wi h es ima es o 153 coun ies (18 om LAC) using su ey da a. Apa
3
om hese wo pape s wi h global co e age ha include LAC, o he ea ly con ibu ions
we e Dahan and Ga i ia (2001), which es ima ed sibling co ela ions in schooling o 16
coun ies, and Neidh¨o e , Se ano, and Gaspa ini (2018), which documen ed IGM o 18
coun ies. Mo eo e , esea che s ha e used es ima es om LAC o s udy he ela ionship
be ween inequali y and IGM (Neidh¨o e ,2019), as well as he impac o IGM on economic
de elopmen (Neidh¨o e , Gaspa ini, Ciaschi, Gaspa ini, & Se ano,2024).
A ecen wa e o pape s ha e analyzed IGM in educa ion a he sub-na ional le el, mos ly
wi h census da a. Fo ins ance, Ca d, Domniso u, and Taylo (2022), De enoncou (2022),
Hilge (2016), and Feigenbaum (2018), among o he s, use co esiden samples om census
da a o s udy di e en aspec s o upwa d mobili y in he U.S.; Ashe , No osad, and Ra kin
(2023) s udy mobili y among di e en ma ginalized g oups and analyze geog aphic di e -
ences in India; Van de Weide, Fe ei a de Souza, and Ba bosa (2020) s udy mobili y a
he sub-na ional le el in B azil; Neidh¨o e e al. (2024) compu e educa ional mobili y o 52
subna ional di isions in 10 coun ies o La in Ame ica o es ima e i s impac on egional
economic indica o s; and Alesina e al. (2021) and Alesina, Hohmann, Michalopoulos, and
Papaioannou (2023) s udy pa e ns o IGM in A ica using census da a, applying me hods
simila o hose used in his pape .
This pape con ibu es o his li e a u e in se e al ways. Fi s , i complemen s p e ious
s udies by es ima ing a new indica o ha is ocused on he mos disad an aged segmen o
he popula ion in e ms o educa ional a ainmen . Second, he pape imp o es he coun y
co e age wi h a leas six addi ional coun ies ha accoun o 62% o he popula ion in he
Ca ibbean egion, o which, o he bes o my knowledge, no es ima es o in e gene a ional
mobili y we e a ailable so a . Thi d, i exploi s census da a, which con ains la ge sam-
ples and p o ides high c oss-coun y compa abili y, o s udy IGM in LAC. In addi ion, i
uses he same app oach as ecen es ima es o A ica o imp o e he cu en c oss- egional
compa abili y.2Fou h, he pape p o ides no el e idence on changes in mobili y gaps by
gende and u ban/ u al popula ion. Fi h, his s udy is he i s o map IGM in educa ion
a a highly disagg ega ed egional le el o almos he en i e popula ion o LAC. Las ly, he
pape explo es how IGM is associa ed wi h a se o co ela es a he sub-na ional le el.
The pape is o ganized as ollows. Sec ion II desc ibes he da a and me hodology. Sec-
ion III epo s he main desc ip i e esul s a he coun y le el. Sec ion IV explo es he
geog aphy o mobili y and looks a co ela es o IGM. Sec ion V concludes wi h inal ema ks.
2He z e al. (2007) allowed his ype o compa ison bu included only se en coun ies om La in Ame ica
and ou om A ica. Mo e ecen ly, Na ayan e al. (2018) and Van de Weide e al. (2024) allow egional
compa isons bu pool oge he es ima es om di e en ypes o su eys (e.g., opinion su eys and household
su eys) and mix hese es ima es wi h e ospec i e in o ma ion and co esiden samples, which may be
p oblema ic (see Munoz & Si a egna,2023).
4
II Da a and Me hodology
In his pape , I use census da a ob ained om IPUMS In e na ional (In eg a ed Public Use
Mic oda a Se ies, IPUMS,2019), which is hos ed a he Uni e si y o Minneso a Popula ion
Cen e and epo s ha monized ep esen a i e samples ( ypically 10%) o ull census mic o-
da a se s o a la ge numbe o coun ies. In pa icula , I use 91 samples o popula ion and
housing censuses om 24 coun ies. The censuses a e conduc ed o compu e o al popula ion
and con ain an educa ional a ainmen ques ion in hei ques ionnai e.3The key ad an age
o his da a se is ha i con ains de ailed in o ma ion abou he loca ion o a la ge sha e
o he en i e popula ion, which allows me o analyze mobili y a a e y disagg ega ed geo-
g aphical le el.4Mo eo e , he in o ma ion abou educa ional a ainmen is, o he mos
pa , collec ed di ec ly om each household membe , in con as o p e ious esea ch ha
used e ospec i e ques ions (i.e., indi iduals being asked abou he educa ional a ainmen
o hei pa en s), which may in oduce ecall bias. Howe e , he main disad an age o his
da a se is ha i does no link all indi iduals o hei pa en s because o be linked, bo h
indi iduals and pa en s ha e o be pa o he same household. Below, I explain how I ad-
d essed his issue and sha e ecen e idence showing ha he co esidence bias is likely e y
small o he indica o s used in his pape .
II.1 Coun ies and smalle adminis a i e uni s
The 24 coun ies analyzed a e: A gen ina, Boli ia, B azil, Chile, Colombia, Cos a Rica,
Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuado , El Sal ado , Gua emala, Hai i, Hondu as, Jamaica,
T inidad and Tobago, Mexico, Nica agua, Panama, Pa aguay, Pe u, U uguay, Sain Lucia,
Su iname, and Venezuela (see Table A1 in he appendix o de ails abou he ac ion o
da a a ailable by census). I d ew 91 samples om hese 24 coun ies a a ious poin s om
1960 o 2012. Impo an ly, he s udy includes six coun ies om he Ca ibbean egion o
which no es ima es o mobili y we e a ailable.
Rega ding geog aphy, IPUMS epo s esidence a he ime o he in e iew o a mos
wo le els o adminis a i e uni s in which he households we e coun ed. These a iables
con ain he geog aphies o e e y coun y ha monized spa io- empo ally o p o ide spa ially
consis en bounda ies ac oss samples in each coun y. This allows me o assign indi iduals o
3I do no use Chile 1960, Colombia 1964, Cos a Rica 1963, Dominican Republic 1960 and 1970, Ecuado
1962, Hondu as 1961, o Mexico 1960 because he indi iduals a e no o ganized in o households in hose
censuses. I also omi ed he 1995, 2005, and 2015 in e decennial census coun s o Mexico.
4P e ious li e a u e on La in Ame ica has used household su ey da a o public opinion su eys (see
o example, He z e al.,2007;Na ayan e al.,2018;Neidh¨o e e al.,2018), gi en ha long panel da a o
adminis a i e/ egis y da a ha allow he esea che o link gene a ions a e a e.
5
Figu e 5: T ansi ion ma ix o selec ed coun ies
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(a) Jamaica
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(b) Gua emala
No es: The sample is made up o indi iduals o e age 25 ha co eside wi h a leas one indi idual
om he p eceding gene a ion. The igu es display he ansi ion ma ix be ween he educa ional
a ainmen o indi iduals in he sample and hei pa en s. The ho izon al axis is di ided acco ding
o he sha e o pa en s wi h each le el o educa ional a ainmen . The heigh o each ec angle
wi hin each igu e is he likelihood o child educa ional a ainmen condi ional on he a ainmen
o hei pa en s.
o 18 (o 14 o 25), o whom he p eceding gene a ion (pa en s o olde ela i es) ha e on
a e age less han p ima y educa ion. Hence, αup
cis he pa ame e o in e es and, o each
coun y c, measu es he likelihood ha child en whose “pa en s” did no comple e p ima y
school will hemsel es comple e p ima y educa ion, ne o coho e ec s o bo h child en
and pa en s, as well as o census yea e ec s.
This empi ical app oach, simila o he one used in Alesina e al. (2021) wi h da a om
A ica, deli e s a measu e o mobili y ha is compa able be ween coun ies and ha cap u es
some long- e m pa e ns o e hal a cen u y by ne ing ou bi h-coho and census-yea
e ec s ha a e common ac oss coun ies.
Downwa d mobili y a he coun y le el. To es ima e downwa d IGM, I use a
simila econome ic speci ica ion, pooling obse a ions om all he censuses and coun ies:
ydown
icoy =αdown
c+γb
o+γb
y+θ +ϵicoy (2)
whe e ydown
icoy is a dummy a iable ha akes a alue equal o one when indi idual idoes
no comple e p ima y educa ion and ze o o he wise. The pa ame e s γb
o,γb
y,θ again e e
espec i ely o ixed e ec s by decade-coho o he p eceding gene a ion ha co esides
wi h indi idual i, decade-coho o indi idual i, and census yea . These ixed e ec s aim o
12
con ol o di e ences d i en by he bi h coho o child en, he bi h coho o hei pa en s,
and o he po en ial ac o s associa ed wi h each census. This eg ession uses a sample o
indi iduals aged 14 o 18 (o 14 o 25), o whom he p eceding gene a ion (pa en s o
olde ela i es) ha e on a e age comple ed a leas p ima y educa ion. Hence, αdown
cis
he pa ame e o in e es and, o each coun y c, measu es he likelihood ha child en
whose “pa en s” did no comple e p ima y school will hemsel es ail o comple e p ima y
educa ion, ne o coho e ec s o bo h child en and pa en s, as well as o census yea e ec s.
Upwa d and downwa d mobili y a a ine geog aphical le el. To es ima e IGM
a a mo e disagg ega ed le el (i.e., p o inces o dis ic s), I un he ollowing econome ic
speci ica ions, coun y by coun y:
yup
ic oy =αup
c +γb
o+γb
y+θ +ϵic oy
ydown
ic oy =αdown
c +γb
o+γb
y+θ +ϵic oy
(3)
The a iables and subsc ip s ha appea in equa ions 1and 2a e in e p e ed in he same
way he e, and he addi ional subsc ip e e s o he dis ic o p o ince, acco ding o he
le el o geog aphical disagg ega ion used in he analysis (p o inces o baseline es ima es
and dis ic s in he addi ional exe cise in he appendix).
Why is p ima y educa ion a sui able a iable o measu ing IGM? The e a e
h ee easons o ocusing on p ima y educa ion. Fi s , a subs an ial sha e o he popula ion
o La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean in he pe iod spanned by his da a se has a ained
less han a p ima y educa ion, as shown in he p e ious subsec ion. Second, his ocus
makes he analysis di ec ly compa able o he ecen wo k o Alesina e al. (2021) in A ica
and minimizes he po en ial bias ha comes om using samples o co esiden s. Thi d, he
ocus on he lowes le el o educa ion can also be jus i ied om a concep ual poin o iew.
De elopmen policy discussions o en claim ha he poo es should no be le behind, and
his ocus is ela ed o he school o mo al philosophy exempli ied by he p inciple o jus ice
p oposed by Rawls (1971).15
Robus ness. As a obus ness check, I compu e upwa d and downwa d mobili y using
some al e na i e op ions o da a cons uc ion. Fi s , I use he maximum a ainmen o
he p eceding gene a ion ins ead o a e age a ainmen . This change p oduces es ima es
wi h negligible di e ences ( o example, he Pea son co ela ion coe icien s be ween mea-
su emen s using a e age e sus maximum a he coun y, p o ince, and dis ic le el a e
app oxima ely 1). Second, I es ima e mobili y using a sample o indi iduals linked o (p ob-
able) pa en s, as done by IPUMS (2019). This change p oduces es ima es ha a e also
15See Ra allion (2016) as an example o he ocus on he poo es in he con ex o po e y measu emen .
13
highly co ela ed ( o example, he Pea son co ela ion coe icien s be ween measu emen s
using olde ela i es e sus (p obable) pa en s a he coun y, p o ince, and dis ic le el a e
0.98, 0.97, and 0.93, espec i ely).
Al e na i e measu es o IGM. I es ima e a se o addi ional measu es o in e gene a-
ional mobili y ha a e less ocused on he bo om o he educa ional a ainmen dis ibu ion.
In con as o he es ima es ocused on p ima y educa ion, hese measu es a e compu ed us-
ing indi iduals aged 19 o 25. Fi s , I es ima e upwa d and downwa d mobili y conside ing
seconda y educa ion ins ead o p ima y. Second, I es ima e upwa d mobili y as he likeli-
hood o an indi idual inishing a leas seconda y educa ion when he p eceding gene a ion
was no able o comple e p ima y school. These indica o s a e mo e p one o co esidence
bias, bu hey s ill p o ide aluable in o ma ion. Fo example, Munoz and Si a egna (2023)
show ha he ank co ela ion be ween indica o s o upwa d mobili y using seconda y le el
compu ed wi h all child en e sus co esiden s is app oxima ely 0.86.16
III In e gene a ional Mobili y in LAC
III.1 Coun y-le el es ima es
Table 1summa izes he es ima es o mobili y a he coun y le el. On a e age, close o 50
pe cen o child en wi h pa en s who did no inish p ima y educa ion ( om now on, illi e a e
pa en s) a e able o comple e p ima y school. On he o he hand, downwa d mobili y is close
o 10 pe cen , since one ou o 10 child en wi h pa en s who inished p ima y educa ion ( om
now on, li e a e pa en s) do no comple e p ima y school.17
The e is subs an ial he e ogenei y among LAC coun ies. The p obabili y ha child en
o illi e a e pa en s will comple e p ima y school anges om 18% in Gua emala o 87%
in Jamaica. In he case o downwa d mobili y, he es ima ed p obabili y ha child en o
li e a e pa en s will no comple e p ima y school anges om null in Jamaica o 23% in
Hai i. The he e ogenei y ound in upwa d mobili y in La in Ame ica (e.g., he gap o 69
pe cen age poin s be ween Jamaica and Gua emala) is ela i ely simila o he he e ogenei y
ha Alesina e al. (2021) documen ed o A ican coun ies (e.g., he gap o 75 pe cen age
poin s be ween Sou h A ica and Sou h Sudan), al hough minimum and maximum alues
we e highe in A ica. Fu he mo e, he le el o upwa d mobili y among coun ies in LAC
subs an ially o e laps wi h ha o A ica. Coun ies wi h he lowes le els o upwa d mobili y
in LAC, such as Hai i, Gua emala, and Nica agua, a e mo e upwa dly mobile han he i e
16Using 72 coun y- and i e-yea bi h coho s ha span 18 coun ies in La in Ame ica.
17No e ha hese es ima es a e compu ed ne o coho and census yea e ec s acco ding o equa ions 1
and 2, which may esul in es ima es ou side he 0–1 ange, as seen in Jamaica.
14
lowes o he 27 coun ies o which Alesina e al. (2021) p o ide es ima es (Malawi, E hiopia,
Sudan, Mozambique, and Sou h Sudan). In con as , he o e lap in downwa d mobili y is
much less p onounced (see Figu e A15 in he appendix.).
Table 1: Coun y-le el es ima es o educa ional in e gene a ional mobili y
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
mobili y / N census yea s upwa d upwa d downwa d downwa d N N
age ange 14–18 14–25 14–18 14–25 14–18 14–25
Jamaica 1982,1991,2001 .868 .864 -.004 .003 43,404 77,227
T inidad and Tobago 1970,1980,1990,2000,2011 .839 .833 .023 .023 41,253 81,100
A gen ina 1970,1980,1991,2001,2010 .762 .789 .035 .034 1,068,471 2,017,618
Chile 1970,1982,1992,2002 .682 .709 .05 .044 344,149 651,737
U uguay 1963,1975,1985,1996,2006,2011 .668 .685 .064 .052 108,528 199,653
Cuba 2002,2012 .662 .688 .027 .024 101,268 214,486
Panama 1960,1970,1980,1990,2000,2010 .635 .665 .049 .04 86,527 157,906
Cos a Rica 1973,1984,2000,2011 .634 .643 .086 .068 107,088 197,018
Boli ia 1976,1992,2001,2012 .609 .634 .068 .057 206,745 358,013
Mexico 1970,1990,2000,2010 .602 .622 .048 .042 2,811,581 4,961,471
Ecuado 1974,1982,1990,2001,2010 .543 .572 .089 .074 373,130 667,055
Su iname 2012 .535 .563 .042 .031 2,999 6,141
Venezuela 1971,1981,1990,2001 .533 .587 .096 .08 517,834 940,766
Sain Lucia 1980,1991 .523 .492 .126 .142 2,089 3,679
Pe u 1993,2007 .48 .524 .115 .088 357,472 668,806
Pa aguay 1962,1972,1982,1992,2002 .432 .463 .116 .096 118,082 207,766
Colombia 1973,1985,1993,2005 .402 .437 .142 .114 886,765 1,605,718
Hondu as 1974,1988,2001 .398 .433 .151 .133 109,458 182,786
Dominican Republic 1981,2002,2010 .376 .442 .15 .124 173,340 312,654
B azil 1960,1970,1980,1991,2000,2010 .367 .422 .171 .128 10,755,296 18,713,402
El Sal ado 1992,2007 .342 .374 .164 .138 85,402 150,582
Hai i 1971,1982,2003 .212 .266 .226 .178 104,465 183,588
Nica agua 1971,1995,2005 .194 .238 .223 .18 93,635 167,740
Gua emala 1964,1973,1981,1994,2002 .181 .212 .159 .129 238,047 402,133
mean / o al .52 .548 .101 .084 18,737,028 33,129,045
No es: Columns (1) and (2) gi e upwa d IGM es ima es. They e lec he likelihood ha indi iduals aged
14–18 o 14–25 whose pa en s ha e no comple ed p ima y schooling will manage o comple e a leas p ima y
educa ion. Columns (3) and (4) gi e downwa d IGM es ima es. They e lec he likelihood ha indi iduals
aged 14–18 o 14–25 whose pa en s ha e comple ed p ima y schooling o highe will no manage o comple e
p ima y educa ion. Columns (5) and (6) gi e he numbe o obse a ions used o es ima e he coun y-
speci ic IGM s a is ics (child en wi h pa en s whose educa ion is epo ed in he censuses). Coun ies a e
so ed om he highes o he lowes le el o upwa d IGM based on he 14–18 sample (column (1)). “Mean”
gi es he unweigh ed a e age o he 24 coun y es ima es.
Figu e 6maps he coun y-le el es ima es o upwa d and downwa d mobili y in educa ion.
I highligh s he he e ogenei y ound ac oss he con inen , showing ha pa e ns o upwa d
mobili y a e in e sely ela ed o downwa d mobili y and ha he e a e combina ions o
low and high mobili y coun ies in Sou h Ame ica, as well as in Cen al Ame ica and he
Ca ibbean. The es ima es o upwa d and downwa d mobili y a e signi ican ly nega i ely
co ela ed a he coun y le el (see Figu e A16 in he appendix).
Coun y-le el es ima es o in e gene a ional mobili y ocused on seconda y educa ion can
be ound in Table A8 in he appendix. The samples a e smalle , and he le el o upwa d
15
Figu e 6: In e gene a ional educa ional mobili y in LAC
A gen ina
Boli ia
B azil
Chile
Colombia
Cos a Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuado
El Sal ado
Gua emala Hai i
Hondu as
Jamaica
Mexico
Su iname
Nica agua
Pa aguay
Pe u
Panama
S . Lucia
T inidad and Tobago
U uguay
Venezuela
A gen ina
Boli ia
B azil
Chile
Colombia
Cos a Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuado
El Sal ado
Gua emala Hai i
Hondu as
Jamaica
Mexico
Su iname
Nica agua
Pa aguay
Pe u
Panama
S . Lucia
T inidad and Tobago
U uguay
Venezuela
Upwa d Mobili y
0.66 o 0.87
0.59 o 0.66
0.49 o 0.59
0.37 o 0.49
0.18 o 0.37
(a) Upwa d Mobili y
A gen ina
Boli ia
B azil
Chile
Colombia
Cos a Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuado
El Sal ado
Gua emala Hai i
Hondu as
Jamaica
Mexico
Su iname
Nica agua
Pa aguay
Pe u
Panama
S . Lucia
T inidad and Tobago
U uguay
Venezuela
A gen ina
Boli ia
B azil
Chile
Colombia
Cos a Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuado
El Sal ado
Gua emala Hai i
Hondu as
Jamaica
Mexico
Su iname
Nica agua
Pa aguay
Pe u
Panama
S . Lucia
T inidad and Tobago
U uguay
Venezuela
Downwa d Mobili y
−0.004 o 0.046
0.046 o 0.072
0.072 o 0.115
0.115 o 0.154
0.154 o 0.226
(b) Downwa d mobili y
No es: Upwa d mobili y e lec s he likelihood ha child en aged 14–18 whose pa en s ha e no
comple ed p ima y schooling will manage o comple e a leas p ima y educa ion. Downwa d
mobili y e lec s he likelihood ha child en aged 14–18 whose pa en s ha e comple ed p ima y
schooling o highe will no manage o comple e p ima y educa ion. Bo h es ima es a e ne o
coho and census yea e ec s.
mobili y is conside ably lowe , while he le el o downwa d mobili y is conside ably highe .
As wi h he es ima es using p ima y educa ion, he e is signi ican a ia ion ac oss coun ies.
In he case o upwa d mobili y measu ed as he likelihood ha child en comple e a leas
seconda y educa ion when hei pa en s we e no able o comple e p ima y, we see lowe
le els o mobili y a he coun y le el, as could be expec ed (see Table A11 in he appendix).
III.1.a U ban- u al
Gi en ha an impo an ea u e o mos de eloping coun ies is he gap in li ing s anda ds
be ween u al and u ban esiden s (see Lagakos,2020), I explo e he he e ogenei y in IGM
be ween hese popula ions and documen how hey ha e e ol ed ac oss bi h coho s. I do
so by es ima ing upwa d and downwa d mobili y by coun y, bi h decade o he “child en,”
and u ban/ u al s a us o hei esidence.18 Figu e 7shows he gap in he upwa d/downwa d
mobili y be ween u ban and u al a eas o e he a ious bi h coho s. I ind a gap in upwa d
mobili y ha a o s u ban a eas and ha has been declining om 36 pe cen age poin s o
18Equa ion 1and 2in his case becomes yup/down
icys =αup/down
cys +ϵicys, whe e αup/down
cys is a ixed e ec by
coun y, decade-coho o indi idual i, and u al/u ban esidence s.
16
Figu e 7: In e gene a ional educa ional mobili y in LAC - u ban/ u al
BOL
BOL
BOL
BOL
BRA
BRA
BRA BRA
CHL
CHL
CHL
CHL
COL
COL
COL
COL
CRI
CRI CRI CRI
GTM
GTM GTM
GTM
HND
HND HND
HND
PRY
PRY
PRY
PRY
ARG
ARG
ARG
BOL
BRA BRA
COL
CRI
DOM
DOM
ECU ECU
ECU
SLV SLV
GTM
HTI
HTI
JAM
MEX
MEX
MEX
MEX
NIC NIC
PAN
PAN
PAN
PAN
PAN
PRY
PER
PER PER
LCA
URY
URY
URY
URY
VEN
VEN
VEN
gap = 10.692 + -.0053 coho
(3.1274) (.0016)
0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5
u ban upwa d IGM - u al upwa d IGM
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Bi h decade
coun ies wi h da a o 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s
o he coun ies
mean among coun ies wi h da a 1950s-1980s
(a) Upwa d mobili y
BOL
BOL
BOL
BOL
BRA
BRA
BRA
BRA
CHL
CHL
CHL
CHL
COL
COL
COL
COL
CRI
CRI CRI CRI
GTM
GTM
GTM GTM
HND
HND
HND
HND
PRY
PRY
PRY
PRY
ARG
ARG ARG BOL
BRA
BRA
COL
CRI
DOM
DOM
ECU
ECU ECU
SLV SLV
GTM
HTI
HTI
JAM
MEX
MEX
MEX
MEX
NIC NIC
PAN PAN
PAN
PAN
PAN
PRY
PER
PER PER
LCA
URY
URY
URY
URY
VEN
VEN
VEN
gap = -9.263 + .0046 coho
(2.2662) (.0012)
-.5 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 0
u ban downwa d IGM - u al downwa d IGM
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Bi h decade
coun ies wi h da a o 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s
o he coun ies
mean among coun ies wi h da a 1950s-1980s
(b) Downwa d mobili y
No es: These es ima es co espond o he p obabili y ha indi iduals whose pa en s did no inish
p ima y school will manage o comple e a leas p ima y educa ion, in he case o upwa d mobili y,
and he p obabili y ha indi iduals whose pa en s comple ed p ima y school will no manage o
comple e p ima y educa ion, in he case o downwa d mobili y. The es ima es a e o indi iduals
aged 14–18 by coun y (pooling all a ailable wa es), bi h decade o he “child en,” and u ban/ u al
s a us o he household.
20 pe cen age poin s in mo e ecen bi h coho s. In o he wo ds, upwa d mobili y is on
a e age 36 pe cen age poin s highe in u ban a eas compa ed o u al a eas o he coho
bo n in 1950–1959, and his gap declines o 20 pe cen age poin s o hose bo n be ween
1980 and 1989. The gap in downwa d mobili y is also closing om below, mo ing om 29
pe cen age poin s o he 1950 bi h decade o 15 pe cen age poin s o he 1980 bi h decade.
Figu e A17 and Figu e A18 in he appendix show es ima es by sub-popula ion a he han
he gap be ween hem o coun ies wi h da a o a leas ou decades. These es ima es
sugges ha he gap has been sh inking because o an inc ease in upwa d mobili y and a
dec ease in downwa d mobili y in u al a eas.19
III.1.b Gende
As discussed in a ecen su ey on IGM in de eloping coun ies (see To che,2021), gende
gaps in educa ion ha e been disappea ing o e en shi ing in a o o women. I examine
whe he hese pa e ns hold in his census da a se by es ima ing IGM o males and emales
19The u ban- u al gap can be a ec ed by mig a ion om u al o u ban a eas. Howe e , he gap is
unlikely d i en by his mig a ion, as i would equi e nega i e selec ion in o mig a ion, which con as s wi h
he e idence o posi i e selec ion shown in Munoz (2022).
17
Figu e 8: In e gene a ional educa ional mobili y in LAC - gende
ARG
ARG ARG ARG
BOL
BOL
BOL
BOL
BRA
BRA
BRA
BRA
CHL
CHL CHL CHL
CRI CRI
CRI
CRI
HND
HND
HND
HND
NIC
NIC NICNIC
PAN
PAN
PAN
PAN
PRY PRY
PRY PRY
780
780
780
780
VEN
VEN VEN
VEN
ARG
BOL
BRA
BRA
COL
COL COLCOL COL
COL
CRI
192
192
DOM
DOM
DOM
ECU
ECUECU ECU
ECU ECU
SLV
SLV
SLV
GTM
GTMGTM
GTM
GTM GTMGTM
HTI
HTI HTI
JAM
JAM JAM
MEX
MEX MEX MEX
NIC
PAN PAN
PRY
PER
PER PER
LCA
LCA
740
780
URY
URY URYURY URYURY URYURY
URYURY
gap = 3.535 + -.0018 coho
(1.854) (.0009)
-.2 -.1 0 .1 .2
male upwa d IGM - emale upwa d IGM
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Bi h decade
coun ies wi h da a o 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s
o he coun ies
mean among coun ies wi h da a 1950s-1980s
(a) Upwa d mobili y
ARG ARG ARG ARG
BOL BOL BOL
BOL
BRA BRA
BRA
BRA
CHL CHL CHL CHL
CRI CRI
CRI CRI
HND
HND HND
HND
NIC
NIC NICNIC
PAN PAN PAN PAN
PRY
PRY
PRY PRY
780
780
780 780
VEN
VEN VEN VEN
ARG
BOL
BRA BRA
COL COL COLCOL
COL
COL
CRI
192 192
DOM DOM
DOM
ECU
ECUECU ECU ECU ECU
SLV
SLV
SLV
GTM
GTMGTM GTM
GTM
GTMGTM
HTI
HTI
HTI
JAM JAM JAM
MEX MEX MEX MEX
NIC
PAN
PAN
PRY PER PER PER
LCA
LCA
740
780
URY URY URYURY
URYURY
URYURY URYURY
gap = -.8180 + .0004 coho
(.6631) (.0003)
-.05 0 .05 .1 .15 .2
male downwa d IGM - emale downwa d IGM
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Bi h decade
coun ies wi h da a o 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s
o he coun ies
mean among coun ies wi h da a 1950s-1980s
(b) Downwa d mobili y
These es ima es e lec he p obabili y ha indi iduals whose pa en s did no inish p ima y school
will comple e a leas p ima y educa ion, in he case o upwa d mobili y, and he p obabili y
ha indi iduals whose pa en s comple ed p ima y school will no manage o comple e p ima y
educa ion, in he case o downwa d mobili y. The es ima es a e o indi iduals aged 14–18 by
coun y (pooling all a ailable wa es), bi h decade o he “child en,” and gende .
sepa a ely and documen ing how he gap be ween hese popula ions has e ol ed ac oss bi h
coho s. I es ima e upwa d and downwa d mobili y by coun y, bi h decade o he “chil-
d en,” and gende .20 I do no ind sys ema ic di e ences by gende o olde bi h coho s,
bu he e appea s o be a end owa ds highe upwa d mobili y o women because hei
upwa d mobili y is 3 pe cen age poin s highe in he 1980s bi h coho (see Figu e 8). Fo
downwa d mobili y, he e is a simila gap in a o o women o app oxima ely 3 pe cen age
poin s o he 1980s bi h coho , wi h a la e end. Figu e A19 and Figu e A20 in he
appendix show es ima es by sub-popula ion a he han he gende gap o coun ies wi h
da a o a leas ou decades. These es ima es sugges s ha he gap has been inc easing in
a o o women because o a mo e- han-p opo ional inc ease o hem in upwa d mobili y
and a less han p opo ional dec ease in downwa d mobili y.
III.1.c Shi s o e ime
As men ioned in he da a sec ion, da a co e age o e ime is unbalanced, wi h da a o
some coun ies spanning mo e yea s han o he s. This limi s analysis o ends o e ime
20Equa ion 1and 2in his case becomes yup/down
icyg =αup/down
cyg +ϵicyg, whe e αup/down
cyg is a ixed e ec by
coun y, decade-coho o indi idual i, and gende g.
18
Figu e 9: In e gene a ional educa ional mobili y in LAC ac oss coho s
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
IGM UP
Hai i
Gua emala
Nica agua
Hondu as
El Sal ado
Venezuela
B azil
Sain Lucia
Pa aguay
Dominican Republic
Colombia
Panama
A gen ina
Ecuado
Pe u
Cos a Rica
Su iname
Chile
U uguay
Mexico
Cuba
T inidad and Tobago
Boli ia
Jamaica
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
(a) Upwa d mobili y
0 .1 .2 .3 .4
IGM Down
Hai i
Nica agua
Gua emala
Hondu as
B azil
Sain Lucia
El Sal ado
Pa aguay
Venezuela
Dominican Republic
Ecuado
A gen ina
Pe u
Colombia
T inidad and Tobago
Cos a Rica
Chile
U uguay
Panama
Boli ia
Mexico
Jamaica
Su iname
Cuba
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
(b) Downwa d mobili y
These es ima es co espond o he p obabili y ha indi iduals whose pa en s did no inish p ima y
school will manage o comple e a leas p ima y educa ion, in he case o upwa d mobili y, and he
p obabili y ha indi iduals whose pa en s comple ed p ima y school will no manage o comple e
p ima y educa ion, in he case o downwa d mobili y. The es ima es a e o indi iduals aged 14–18
by coun y (pooling all a ailable wa es) and bi h decade o he “child en.”
and he conclusions ha can be de i ed om c oss-coun y compa isons a gi en poin s in
ime o o a gi en coho . Ne e heless, I documen es ima es o mobili y by coun y o
he di e en bi h coho s ha a e a ailable.21 Figu e 9 epo s hese es ima es. The le el
o upwa d mobili y has clea ly been inc easing, while downwa d mobili y has been alling.
This is unsu p ising, gi en ha educa ional a ainmen has inc eased in he egion o e he
las decades. Fo example, in B azil, Panama, and U uguay, he coun ies wi h he mos
censuses in he da a se , upwa d mobili y inc eased om 0.05, 0.36, and 0.48, espec i ely,
o hose bo n in he 1940s o 0.66, 0.74, and 0.85 o hose bo n in he 1990s. Despi e his
shi and he imp o emen in schooling in he egion, in se e al coun ies he p obabili y
ha hose bo n in he 1990s o poo ly educa ed pa en s will comple e p ima y educa ion is
s ill less han 80 pe cen .
21Equa ion 1and 2in his case becomes yup/down
icys =αup/down
cy +ϵicy, whe e αup/down
cy is a ixed e ec by
coun y and decade-coho o indi idual i.
19
III.1.d Discussion o he esul s
The es ima es o in e gene a ional mobili y a he coun y le el e eal he ollowing pa e ns.
Fi s , he e is subs an ial he e ogenei y in upwa d and downwa d mobili y ac oss coun ies in
LAC. Ca ibbean coun ies, such as Jamaica and T inidad and Tobago, show he highes le els
o upwa d mobili y in LAC, while Hai i has among he lowes . As men ioned ea lie , hese
coun y-le el es ima es complemen he exis ing li e a u e by using an indica o ocused on
he mos disad an aged popula ion. Hence, he associa ed ankings based on IGM do no
necessa ily align wi h p e ious s udies ha use o he indica o s.22 The ange o es ima es
o LAC is simila o he ange ound o A ica, al hough wi h highe a e age upwa d
mobili y and lowe downwa d mobili y. Second, upwa d mobili y is highe in u ban a eas,
and downwa d mobili y is lowe . Howe e , he u ban- u al gap is dec easing o e bi h
coho s because IGM in u al a eas is ca ching up. Thi d, upwa d mobili y is sligh ly highe
and downwa d mobili y sligh ly lowe o emales, and he gende gap shi s in a o o emales
o e bi h coho s. This end in upwa d mobili y a o ing emales is consis en wi h he
indings o Neidh¨o e e al. (2018),23 and his inding adds o he sca ce li e a u e on gende
di e ences in IGM (see To che,2021). Fou h, upwa d mobili y has inc eased signi ican ly
ac oss bi h coho s, while downwa d mobili y has dec eased subs an ially. This is consis en
wi h he ends shown in Neidh¨o e e al. (2018) and Van de Weide e al. (2024) o absolu e
mobili y.
IV Spa ial Va ia ion and Co ela es o IGM in LAC
In his sec ion, I map in e gene a ional mobili y in educa ion ac oss egions in LAC and hen
explo e whe he he obse ed pa e ns a e associa ed wi h a se o co ela es.
IV.1 Spa ial a ia ion o in e gene a ional mobili y in LAC
Table 2summa izes he es ima es o mobili y a he p o ince le el. These esul s show ha
in some coun ies, mobili y le els a y subs an ially ac oss p o inces.24 This is he case in
Pa aguay, Mexico, Gua emala, and Pe u, whe e he di e ence be ween he mos upwa dly
mobile and leas upwa dly mobile p o inces is mo e han hal he ange be ween coun ies
22This is also ecognized in Neidh¨o e e al. (2018) when compa ing anks based on indica o s o ela i e
mobili y o hose o absolu e mobili y.
23These esul s a e documen ed in he online supplemen al ma e ial o he pape and compu e upwa d
mobili y as he p obabili y ha child en wi h pa en s who achie ed less han seconda y educa ion will
comple e seconda y school o nine coun ies.
24Figu e A6 in he appendix isually ep esen s a iabili y wi hin coun ies.
20
in La in Ame ica. Bu he e a e also cases wi h ei he high o low upwa d mobili y a he
coun y le el and e y li le a ia ion wi hin coun y, such as Jamaica and Hai i, al hough
his is somewha expec ed since hese coun ies ha e ew adminis a i e uni s and a small
popula ion.
Fo downwa d mobili y, a iabili y (measu ed by s anda d de ia ion o he di e ence
be ween he p o ince wi h he highes and lowes le el) is less p onounced. Howe e , he
ull ange o downwa d mobili y in some coun ies is la ge han he di e ence be ween
he coun y wi h he highes mobili y (Jamaica) and he coun y wi h he lowes mobili y
(Hai i). Nica agua and Hondu as s and ou as cases whe e he ange be ween he p o inces
wi h he minimum and he maximum downwa d mobili y is ela i ely wide (see Figu e A6
in he appendix).
Figu es 10 and 11 map ou he es ima es summa ized in Table 2. They e eal in e es ing
pa e ns in some coun ies. Fo example, Mexico has a somewha lowe le el o upwa d
mobili y in he sou h, and a ligh e spo in he middle o he coun y whe e he capi al is. In
con as , B azil has a much lowe le el o mobili y in he no he n egions and highe mobili y
on he eas coas nea he s a es o S˜ao Paulo and Rio de Janei o. O e all, he egion shows
highe le els in he sou h, especially on he Paci ic coas , and some he e ogenei y in he
Ca ibbean, wi h majo con as s be ween Cuba and Hai i.
In he appendix, I sha e simila es ima es (see Table A7) and maps (see Figu e A7 and
A8) a he dis ic le el, which is he ines adminis a i e uni a ailable in he da a se .
The pa e ns a e quali a i ely simila , bu he le el o disagg ega ion means ha es ima es
o some dis ic s wi h ew obse a ions end up ou side he [0,1] ange.
The appendix also con ains summa y s a is ics o al e na i e es ima es o in e gene a-
ional mobili y ha conside seconda y educa ion a he p o ince and dis ic le els (see
Table A9,A10,A12, and A13). These es ima es a e consis en wi h he coun y-le el ones,
in he sense ha ela i e o my baseline es ima es using p ima y educa ion, hey show lowe
le els o upwa d mobili y, highe le els o downwa d mobili y, smalle samples, and signi ican
wi hin-coun y a ia ion.
IV.2 Co ela es o in e gene a ional mobili y
Gi en he subs an ial he e ogenei y obse ed ac oss egions, I explo e a se o co ela es
o egional IGM o unco e s ylized ac s ha help cha ac e ize i s geog aphy. The se is
ela i ely small gi en he di icul y o collec ing da a ha is compa able ac oss all adminis-
21
e al.,2022). Addi ionally, his inding sugges s ha pa e ns o IGM in income may also
a y signi ican ly in he egion, al hough his hypo hesis is no e i iable a he momen . Fo
example, Ca d e al. (2022) use a simila measu e o in e gene a ional mobili y in educa ion
( ac ion o child en who comple ed a leas nin h g ade among hose whose pa en s com-
ple ed 5–8 yea s o educa ion) o map IGM a he coun y le el in he U.S. using he 1940
census. They ind impo an a iabili y and geog aphical pa e ns ha a e simila o he
map wi h he es ima es o income mobili y o he coho bo n in yea s 1980–83 om Che y
e al. (2014). Second, IGM is s ongly co ela ed o he a e age educa ional a ainmen o
pa en s. Fu he mo e, beyond he e ec o ini ial condi ions, IGM appea s o be co ela ed
o some p oxies o de elopmen , as well as dis ance o he capi al, sugges ing ha educa-
ional oppo uni ies a e cen alized. These esul s a e quali a i ely simila o he indings
in A ica (Alesina e al.,2021) and complemen p e ious s udies ha ha e shown a posi i e
associa ion be ween economic de elopmen and measu es o in e gene a ional mobili y in he
egion (Neidh¨o e e al.,2024,2018) and globally (Van de Weide e al.,2024).
V Final Rema ks
In his pape , I examine in e gene a ional educa ional mobili y o coun ies in La in Ame ica
and he Ca ibbean a a disagg ega ed egional le el using census da a spanning mo e han
hal a cen u y. I in es iga e mobili y in educa ion a he bo om o he educa ional a ain-
men dis ibu ion by ocusing on he likelihood ha child en whose pa en s did no comple e
p ima y educa ion will hemsel es manage o comple e ha le el, which can be measu ed
wi h a high deg ee o con idence be ween ages 14 and 18. Simila ly, I measu e downwa d
mobili y as he p obabili y ha child en whose pa en s comple ed a leas p ima y educa ion
will no hemsel es manage o comple e ha le el.
I ind wide c oss-coun y and wi hin-coun y he e ogenei y. In LAC, he dis ance be ween
he mos and leas upwa dly mobile coun ies is ela i ely close o wha has been ecen ly
documen ed in A ica, al hough he leas mobile coun ies in A ica a e less mobile han
any coun y in LAC. Simila ly, he median coun y in LAC shows highe upwa d mobili y
han he median coun y in A ica. The e is signi ican o e lap in he le els o upwa d
mobili y be ween hese wo egions, bu much less o e lap in le els o downwa d mobili y.
I do no ind signi ican di e ences by gende , bu I do documen a decline in he mobili y
gap be ween u ban and u al popula ions. I also ind ha upwa d mobili y inc eases and
downwa d mobili y dec eases o e ime.
Wi hin-coun y mobili y shows a a ie y o pa e ns. Fo example, some coun ies ha e
highe mobili y in he no he n egions (e.g., Mexico), whe eas o he s show highe mobili y
28
in he sou he n egions (e.g., B azil). The le el o wi hin-coun y he e ogenei y also a ies by
coun y, wi h he lowes le els ound in he smalles and leas popula ed na ions. Mo eo e ,
le el o mobili y closely co ela es o he sha e o he p eceding gene a ion ha comple ed
p ima y school. In addi ion, he e appea s o be a weak posi i e co ela ion be ween upwa d
mobili y and sha e o he wo k o ce employed in indus y o dis ance o he capi al, whe eas
downwa d mobili y is signi ican ly co ela ed o he sha e o he wo k o ce employed in
indus y and he sha e o he wo k o ce employed in ag icul u e, and is only weakly co ela ed
o dis ance o he capi al.
Gi en he unbalanced na u e o he da a se in e ms o co e age o e ime and ac oss
coun ies, u he esea ch could shed mo e ligh on po en ial de e minan s o mobili y in
La in Ame ica by analyzing coun ies wi h ela i ely high da a co e age, such as Chile,
Mexico, o B azil, whe e i is easie o collec co ela es by adminis a i e uni . This pape
con ibu es o his goal by c ea ing es ima es o mobili y a a disagg ega ed geog aphical
le el and making hem a ailable in an online da a appendix o u u e esea ch.
29
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32
Appendices
This appendix p o ides de ails on how he sample was cons uc ed, as well as some addi ional
ables and g aphs.
Table A1 lis s he census samples ob ained om IPUMS-In e na ional and he size o he
da a se ex ac ed.
Table A2 epo s sample size, om aw da a o samples es ic ed by age and by a ail-
abili y o in o ma ion on educa ion.
Table A3 epo s co esidence a es by coun y o di e en ages.
Table A4 de ails how he in o ma ion on ela ionship o head o household is used o
iden i y di e en gene a ions.
Table A5 epo s co esidence a es by coun y-sample o di e en ages.
Figu e A1 displays co esidence a es by u ban/ u al popula ion and by gende .
Figu e A2 compa es es ima es o upwa d mobili y wi h all child en e sus co esiden
child en o he same coun y-coho . The sou ce o hese es ima es is Munoz and Si a egna
(2023).
Figu e A3 displays he educa ional a ainmen ansi ion ma ix o indi iduals 14–25
yea s old.
Figu e A4 displays he educa ional a ainmen ansi ion ma ix o indi iduals 14–25
yea s old in selec ed coun ies.
Table A6 summa izes educa ion le el by coho using da a on indi iduals a leas 25
yea s old.
Figu e A5 epo s he CDF o he sample size by p o ince.
Figu e A6 epo s he a iabili y o p o ince-le el es ima es o in e gene a ional mobili y
wi hin coun ies.
Table A7 epo s dis ic -le el es ima es o in e gene a ional mobili y.
Figu e A7 and A8 map ou mobili y a he dis ic le el o LAC.
Figu e A9 and A10 map ou mobili y a he dis ic le el o LAC using seconda y
educa ion.
Table A8,A9, and A10 epo es ima es o IGM based on seconda y educa ion.
Table A11,A12, and A13 epo es ima es o IGM based on he likelihood o an indi idual
comple ing seconda y educa ion when hei pa en s comple ed less han p ima y school.
Figu e A11,A12,A13, and A14 display mosaic plo s o educa ional a ainmen by coun-
y.
Figu e A15 compa es upwa d and downwa d mobili y in LAC and A ica.
Figu e A16 shows he nega i e ela ionship be ween upwa d and downwa d mobili y.
33
Figu e A17 sha es es ima es o upwa d mobili y by u ban/ u al s a us o selec ed coun-
ies.
Figu e A18 shows es ima es o downwa d mobili y by u ban/ u al s a us o selec ed
coun ies.
Figu e A19 displays es ima es o upwa d mobili y by gende o selec ed coun ies.
Figu e A20 sha es es ima es o downwa d mobili y by gende o selec ed coun ies.
Figu e A21 shows sca e plo s be ween IGM and sha e o he p eceding gene a ion ha
comple ed a leas p ima y educa ion, by dis ic .
Figu e A22 shows he associa ion be ween IGM es ima es using seconda y educa ion and
co ela es.
34
A Sample co e age and cons uc ion
Table A1: Census samples
N Coun y Yea F ac ion Households Pe sons N Coun y Yea F ac ion Households Pe sons
(%) (%)
1 A gen ina 1970 2 129,728 466,892 47 Hai i 2003 10 219,633 838,045
2 A gen ina 1980 10 672,062 2,667,714 48 Hondu as 1974 10 49,064 278,348
3 A gen ina 1991 10 1,199,651 4,286,447 49 Hondu as 1988 10 77,406 423,971
4 A gen ina 2001 10 1,040,852 3,626,103 50 Hondu as 2001 10 123,584 608,620
5 A gen ina 2010 10 1,217,166 3,966,245 51 Jamaica 1982 10 54,526 223,667
6 Boli ia 1976 10 121,378 461,699 52 Jamaica 1991 10 62,291 232,625
7 Boli ia 1992 10 177,926 642,368 53 Jamaica 2001 10 64,317 205,179
8 Boli ia 2001 10 239,475 827,692 54 Mexico 1970 1 82,856 483,405
9 Boli ia 2012 10 292,117 1,003,516 55 Mexico 1990 10 1,648,280 8,118,242
10 B azil 1960 20 3,066,365 14,983,769 56 Mexico 2000 10.6 2,312,035 10,099,182
11 B azil 1970 25 5,111,039 24,789,716 57 Mexico 2010 10 2,903,640 11,938,402
12 B azil 1980 25 6,716,885 29,378,753 58 Nica agua 1971 10 36,063 189,469
13 B azil 1991 10 4,024,553 17,045,712 59 Nica agua 1995 10 82,815 435,728
14 B azil 2000 10 5,304,711 20,274,412 60 Nica agua 2005 10 119,339 515,485
15 B azil 2010 10 6,192,502 20,635,472 61 Panama 1960 5 11,869 53,553
16 Chile 1970 10 199,041 890,481 62 Panama 1970 10 31,755 150,473
17 Chile 1982 10 282,356 1,133,062 63 Panama 1980 10 47,726 195,577
18 Chile 1992 10 373,964 1,335,055 64 Panama 1990 10 61,458 232,737
19 Chile 2002 10 486,115 1,513,914 65 Panama 2000 10 84,346 284,081
20 Colombia 1973 10 349,853 1,988,831 66 Panama 2010 10 95,579 341,118
21 Colombia 1985 10 571,046 2,643,125 67 Pa aguay 1962 5 18,307 90,236
22 Colombia 1993 10 774,321 3,213,657 68 Pa aguay 1972 10 43,883 233,669
23 Colombia 2005 10 1,054,812 4,006,168 69 Pa aguay 1982 10 60,465 301,582
24 Cos a Rica 1973 10 36,323 186,762 70 Pa aguay 1992 10 100,704 415,401
25 Cos a Rica 1984 10 56,186 241,220 71 Pa aguay 2002 10 113,039 516,083
26 Cos a Rica 2000 10 106,973 381,500 72 Pe u 1993 10 564,765 2,206,424
27 Cos a Rica 2011 10 124,693 430,082 73 Pe u 2007 10 821,675 2,745,895
28 Cuba 2002 10 371,878 1,118,767 74 Sain Lucia 1980 10 2,674 11,451
29 Cuba 2012 10 416,577 1,115,643 75 Sain Lucia 1991 10 3,394 13,382
30 Dominican Rep 1981 8.5 103,904 475,829 76 Su iname 2012 10 14,037 53,636
31 Dominican Rep 2002 10 247,375 857,606 77 T inidad and Tobago 1970 10 15,871 69,349
32 Dominican Rep 2010 10 309,624 943,784 78 T inidad and Tobago 1980 10 23,870 105,464
33 Ecuado 1974 10 145,902 648,678 79 T inidad and Tobago 1990 10 27,561 113,104
34 Ecuado 1982 10 195,401 806,834 80 T inidad and Tobago 2000 10 35,715 111,833
35 Ecuado 1990 10 243,898 966,234 81 T inidad and Tobago 2011 8.8 41,606 116,917
36 Ecuado 2001 10 354,222 1,213,725 82 U uguay 1963 10 79,403 256,171
37 Ecuado 2010 10 386,944 1,448,233 83 U uguay 1975 10 95,935 279,994
38 El Sal ado 1992 10 125,695 510,760 84 U uguay 1985 10 105,761 295,915
39 El Sal ado 2007 10 172,012 574,364 85 U uguay 1996 10 118,067 315,920
40 Gua emala 1964 5 40,220 210,411 86 U uguay 2006 8.4 85,316 256,866
41 Gua emala 1973 5.5 59,622 289,458 87 U uguay 2011 10 118,498 328,425
42 Gua emala 1981 5 65,555 302,106 88 Venezuela 1971 2 284,336 1,158,527
43 Gua emala 1994 10 160,603 833,139 89 Venezuela 1981 10 323,321 1,441,266
44 Gua emala 2002 10 222,770 1,121,946 90 Venezuela 1990 10 468,808 1,803,953
45 Hai i 1971 10 95,145 434,869 91 Venezuela 2001 10 646,080 2,306,489
46 Hai i 1982 2.5 28,698 128,770
35
Table A2: Sample sizes
All obse a ions Obs. wi h educa ion All obse a ions Obs. wi h educa ion
Coun y Yea age: All age: 14-18 age: 14-25 age: 14-18 age: 14-25 Coun y Yea age: All age: 14-18 age: 14-25 age: 14-18 age: 14-25
A gen ina 1970 466,892 42,317 96,744 31,411 59,124 Hai i 2003 838,045 103,088 218,016 72,705 130,436
A gen ina 1980 2,700,000 241,353 532,289 193,448 348,232 Hondu as 1974 278,348 32,262 64,660 24,018 37,966
A gen ina 1991 4,300,000 392,977 844,871 347,074 611,881 Hondu as 1988 423,971 47,258 95,944 37,642 62,769
A gen ina 2001 3,600,000 321,380 764,630 295,621 596,468 Hondu as 2001 608,620 73,272 154,339 62,008 105,745
A gen ina 2010 4,000,000 354,910 813,073 323,256 621,385 Jamaica 1982 223,668 27,612 58,456 17,270 28,729
Boli ia 1976 461,699 51,674 109,380 35,230 57,307 Jamaica 1991 232,625 25,145 56,810 17,326 32,498
Boli ia 1992 642,368 69,992 147,085 46,235 75,965 Jamaica 2001 205,179 21,357 47,770 14,349 25,241
Boli ia 2001 827,692 90,786 199,275 63,080 111,001 Mexico 1970 483,405 54,069 111,210 41,915 64,605
B azil 1960 15,000,000 1,600,000 3,500,000 1,300,000 2,200,000 Mexico 1990 8,100,000 1,000,000 2,100,000 900,739 1,500,000
B azil 1970 25,000,000 2,800,000 6,000,000 2,300,000 3,700,000 Mexico 2000 10,000,000 1,100,000 2,400,000 963,638 1,700,000
B azil 1980 29,000,000 3,300,000 7,400,000 2,700,000 4,600,000 Mexico 2010 12,000,000 1,300,000 2,700,000 1,200,000 2,200,000
B azil 1991 17,000,000 1,800,000 4,000,000 1,600,000 2,800,000 Nica agua 1971 189,469 22,601 44,957 16,771 26,368
B azil 2000 20,000,000 2,200,000 4,800,000 1,900,000 3,400,000 Nica agua 1995 435,728 51,956 107,402 42,619 74,447
B azil 2010 21,000,000 1,900,000 4,500,000 1,700,000 3,200,000 Nica agua 2005 515,485 60,691 136,084 50,811 95,961
Chile 1970 890,481 96,432 203,625 73,392 123,911 Panama 1960 53,553 5,481 11,869 3,368 5,498
Chile 1982 1,100,000 130,958 293,439 106,794 197,946 Panama 1970 150,473 15,817 34,219 11,310 18,797
Chile 1992 1,300,000 121,069 290,349 100,838 199,734 Panama 1980 195,577 22,673 47,420 17,725 30,333
Chile 2002 1,500,000 130,506 297,907 110,343 214,019 Panama 1990 232,737 25,536 57,471 19,537 36,604
Colombia 1973 2,000,000 245,355 493,144 172,222 281,047 Panama 2000 284,081 27,438 62,585 21,924 41,171
Colombia 1985 2,600,000 312,063 705,404 245,920 466,142 Panama 2010 341,118 30,266 70,017 26,170 49,837
Colombia 1993 3,200,000 336,233 758,037 263,014 485,909 Pa aguay 1962 90,236 10,003 20,431 6,011 10,224
Colombia 2005 4,000,000 399,870 860,151 325,438 579,432 Pa aguay 1972 233,669 27,630 54,005 18,806 31,105
Cos a Rica 1973 186,762 23,539 46,832 18,809 30,070 Pa aguay 1982 301,582 34,248 74,515 25,177 45,971
Cos a Rica 1984 241,220 28,005 64,067 23,982 44,198 Pa aguay 1992 415,401 41,705 89,839 30,061 52,473
Cos a Rica 2000 381,500 40,582 88,091 36,085 63,624 Pa aguay 2002 516,083 59,365 125,811 48,042 85,609
Cos a Rica 2011 430,082 40,703 98,328 36,805 74,880 Pe u 1993 2,200,000 245,196 539,320 183,244 335,766
Cuba 2002 1,100,000 82,556 180,787 69,378 132,152 Pe u 2007 2,700,000 280,035 636,955 222,254 419,885
Dominican Republic 1981 475,829 62,387 126,838 49,358 84,310 Sain Lucia 1980 11,451 1,516 2,985 1,076 1,754
Dominican Republic 2002 857,606 85,616 194,479 69,843 128,140 Sain Lucia 1991 13,382 1,455 3,406 1,138 2,154
Dominican Republic 2010 943,784 98,661 221,932 78,426 142,857 T inidad and Tobago 1970 69,349 8,259 16,684 6,398 10,873
Ecuado 1974 648,678 72,812 162,826 49,142 82,561 T inidad and Tobago 1980 105,464 13,096 28,713 11,078 20,578
Ecuado 1982 806,834 89,627 194,868 64,889 112,394 T inidad and Tobago 1990 113,104 10,646 24,520 9,232 18,279
Ecuado 1990 966,234 108,806 237,150 83,171 146,856 T inidad and Tobago 2000 111,833 12,444 26,458 10,890 20,515
Ecuado 2001 1,200,000 126,354 287,034 100,955 186,327 T inidad and Tobago 2011 116,917 8,325 22,630 7,288 17,595
Ecuado 2010 1,400,000 145,454 326,549 117,218 212,597 U uguay 1963 256,171 20,618 47,079 15,749 28,722
El Sal ado 1992 510,760 62,794 129,373 44,508 74,325 U uguay 1975 279,994 24,213 53,152 18,704 33,222
El Sal ado 2007 574,364 62,912 131,762 55,338 100,318 U uguay 1985 295,915 23,728 55,355 18,881 35,368
Gua emala 1964 210,079 22,674 46,804 17,177 27,249 U uguay 1996 315,920 26,188 60,440 21,870 41,399
Gua emala 1973 289,446 33,148 71,814 24,569 39,263 U uguay 2006 256,866 21,943 45,451 20,277 36,604
Gua emala 1981 302,106 33,771 72,879 26,958 45,277 U uguay 2011 328,425 26,825 60,496 23,925 43,382
Gua emala 1994 833,137 97,480 196,310 82,505 135,877 Venezuela 1971 1,200,000 133,044 282,119 87,971 144,465
Gua emala 2002 1,100,000 127,311 269,696 114,181 200,981 Venezuela 1981 1,400,000 166,729 367,032 133,566 238,340
Hai i 1971 434,869 51,096 101,984 35,014 58,427 Venezuela 1990 1,800,000 199,055 445,482 149,752 269,185
Hai i 1982 128,770 15,471 36,494 8,349 15,840 Venezuela 2001 2,300,000 234,403 534,204 204,784 394,511
No es: This able epo s he o al sample size by census yea and coun y, as well as he sample
popula ion es ic ed by age and by he p esence o in o ma ion on educa ion o child en and
pa en s.
36
B Ra es o co esidence
This able shows he co esidence a e by coun y o di e en ages. The co esidence a e is
he o al numbe o indi iduals who co eside wi h a leas one membe o an immedia ely
p eceding gene a ion in he household di ided by he o al numbe o indi iduals in he
age g oup. The sample only includes indi iduals o whom educa ional a ainmen and
ela ionship o head o household a e obse ed.
Table A3: Co esidence a es
Ra e Obse a ions ( housands)
14–18 18–25 21–25 20–23 14–18 18–25 21–25 20–23
A gen ina 95.7 72.1 63.1 72.2 1246 1746 1067 870
Boli ia 86.7 57.6 48.8 56.4 263 358 218 180
B azil 93.7 63.0 51.7 62.0 12292 16695 10015 8312
Chile 95.4 72.7 63.8 73.3 410 570 351 285
Colombia 93.4 68.4 59.6 68.2 1086 1451 888 717
Cos a Rica 94.5 68.3 58.8 68.0 122 173 105 87
Cuba 91.6 74.6 68.7 74.8 141 217 136 107
Dominican Republic 89.0 63.4 54.1 62.7 222 307 182 153
Ecuado 92.8 64.8 55.2 64.2 451 621 378 311
El Sal ado 90.8 66.8 57.8 66.1 110 138 82 68
Gua emala 92.8 63.4 52.8 62.6 286 363 214 180
Hai i 94.4 71.6 60.3 71.1 123 158 88 76
Hondu as 91.1 62.3 52.1 60.9 136 168 98 83
Jamaica 90.5 65.2 55.2 64.7 58 76 45 37
Mexico 93.8 69.1 59.4 68.5 3363 4318 2536 2112
Nica agua 92.4 67.7 59.1 67.2 120 156 93 78
Panama 92.5 66.8 57.7 66.3 108 150 91 74
Pa aguay 94.7 67.4 57.4 67.2 136 177 107 89
Pe u 93.3 69.8 61.8 69.4 436 604 371 301
Sain Lucia 94.7 66.3 55.7 65.2 2 3 2 2
Su iname 95.7 81.2 75.6 82.2 4 5 3 3
T inidad and Tobago 96.1 78.1 70.4 78.8 47 66 40 32
U uguay 95.4 68.9 59.2 68.6 125 175 107 87
Venezuela 92.6 67.7 59.0 67.1 630 858 518 428
37
Table A5 – con inued om p e ious page
Yea 14-18 18-25 21-25 20-23 14-18 18-25 21-25 20-23
Gua emala 1994 93.5 64.5 53.5 63.5 88 104 61 51
Gua emala 2002 93.5 67.8 57.8 67.2 122 159 93 80
Hai i 1971 94.9 66.9 52.8 66.8 37 45 25 21
Hai i 1982 93.8 67.7 56.3 67.9 9 14 8 7
Hai i 2003 94.3 74.3 64.3 73.6 77 99 55 47
Hondu as 1974 92.0 59.4 48.2 58.2 26 31 18 15
Hondu as 1988 92.6 64.6 54.7 63.5 41 48 29 24
Hondu as 2001 89.9 62.0 52.0 60.5 69 89 51 45
Jamaica 1982 90.9 65.0 53.7 64.2 20 25 14 12
Jamaica 1991 91.7 67.5 57.8 67.6 20 28 17 14
Jamaica 2001 88.5 62.5 53.6 61.6 17 23 14 11
Mexico 1970 94.7 58.2 44.0 56.8 44 51 29 24
Mexico 1990 94.0 66.5 55.3 65.8 958 1191 689 579
Mexico 2000 93.0 66.8 57.4 66.4 1079 1442 869 708
Mexico 2010 94.2 73.3 64.7 72.8 1282 1634 949 801
Nica agua 1971 93.1 61.8 49.6 60.8 18 20 12 10
Nica agua 1995 93.5 69.4 60.4 68.8 46 56 33 28
Nica agua 2005 91.2 68.1 60.5 67.6 56 80 49 40
Panama 1960 91.3 52.8 40.6 52.3 4 5 3 3
Panama 1970 91.7 57.8 46.4 56.5 12 16 10 8
Panama 1980 92.7 65.9 55.1 65.1 19 24 14 12
Panama 1990 93.2 69.9 61.0 69.6 21 30 18 15
Panama 2000 93.3 68.8 60.4 68.4 24 33 21 16
Panama 2010 91.8 68.6 61.0 68.5 29 41 25 20
Pa aguay 1962 95.7 63.1 51.9 64.3 6 8 5 4
Pa aguay 1972 96.0 66.5 55.3 67.1 20 23 14 11
Pa aguay 1982 94.7 67.6 57.9 67.8 27 37 23 19
Pa aguay 1992 93.2 61.8 52.0 60.9 32 44 27 22
Pa aguay 2002 95.1 72.0 62.5 71.5 51 64 37 32
Pe u 1993 94.0 69.5 60.9 69.1 196 267 165 135
Pe u 2007 92.7 70.0 62.5 69.6 240 337 206 166
Sain Lucia 1980 95.3 64.5 51.5 63.2 1 1 1 1
Sain Lucia 1991 94.0 67.7 58.6 66.9 1 2 1 1
Su iname 2012 95.7 81.2 75.6 82.2 4 5 3 3
T inidad and Tobago 1970 97.0 72.1 59.5 72.0 7 8 4 4
T inidad and Tobago 1980 95.2 73.2 63.2 73.6 12 16 9 8
T inidad and Tobago 1990 95.8 76.9 69.4 78.0 10 14 9 7
T inidad and Tobago 2000 96.4 81.4 74.2 81.2 12 15 8 7
T inidad and Tobago 2011 96.5 84.4 80.1 86.2 8 14 9 7
U uguay 1963 97.1 70.6 60.0 70.3 16 23 14 11
U uguay 1975 96.5 67.6 56.0 66.6 19 27 16 13
U uguay 1985 96.9 67.1 57.5 67.6 19 29 19 15
U uguay 1996 94.0 69.3 60.5 69.3 23 34 21 17
U uguay 2006 95.0 74.9 65.7 74.6 21 27 16 13
U uguay 2011 94.0 65.6 56.5 64.8 25 36 22 18
Con inued on nex page
44
Table A5 – con inued om p e ious page
Yea 14-18 18-25 21-25 20-23 14-18 18-25 21-25 20-23
Venezuela 1971 93.7 60.5 48.4 58.8 97 121 71 60
Venezuela 1981 92.8 66.7 57.3 66.1 144 192 115 96
Venezuela 1990 91.7 66.6 57.9 65.8 168 227 137 112
Venezuela 2001 92.7 71.7 64.6 71.7 221 318 195 160
45
C Schooling by coho
In his sec ion, I summa ize he educa ion le el by coun y and coho using da a on indi-
iduals a leas 25 yea s old.
Table A6: Educa ion by coho
coho mean yea s less p ima y p ima y seconda y e ia y
A gen ina 1950 9.1 17.8 50.6 24.1 7.5
A gen ina 1960 10.0 11.3 48.9 31.4 8.4
A gen ina 1970 10.8 8.1 45.8 36.1 9.9
A gen ina 1980 11.4 7.4 46.3 35.9 10.4
Boli ia 1950 6.3 46.1 30.7 17.4 5.9
Boli ia 1960 7.8 31.4 38.5 22.8 7.3
Boli ia 1970 9.2 22.7 37.7 28.7 10.9
Boli ia 1980 10.7 13.7 34.7 35.6 16.1
B azil 1950 5.7 58.2 18.0 15.7 8.2
B azil 1960 6.7 44.6 25.4 21.5 8.5
B azil 1970 7.2 33.8 28.1 27.9 10.2
B azil 1980 18.9 28.9 39.0 13.2
Chile 1950 9.2 19.0 47.2 28.7 5.1
Chile 1960 10.1 12.0 45.9 37.3 4.8
Chile 1970 11.3 6.8 39.4 46.2 7.6
Chile 1980
Colombia 1950 6.5 34.9 39.7 18.9 6.5
Colombia 1960 7.5 24.5 42.2 26.6 6.7
Colombia 1970 8.8 18.2 34.6 34.6 12.6
Colombia 1980 9.4 14.1 30.0 43.0 12.9
Cos a Rica 1950 7.9 23.1 46.9 18.3 11.7
Cos a Rica 1960 8.6 14.7 51.8 19.2 14.3
Cos a Rica 1970 8.7 15.1 50.3 17.2 17.4
Cos a Rica 1980 9.7 11.4 44.1 20.1 24.3
Cuba 1950 10.4 7.6 46.1 32.6 13.7
Cuba 1960 11.4 2.8 39.7 43.4 14.2
Cuba 1970 11.7 1.9 37.6 46.9 13.6
Cuba 1980 12.3 1.5 24.3 52.1 22.1
Dominican Republic 1950 6.3 50.5 29.0 12.3 8.1
Dominican Republic 1960 8.0 33.5 37.1 17.8 11.7
Dominican Republic 1970 8.6 27.4 39.4 22.3 10.9
Dominican Republic 1980 9.7 19.8 33.6 34.0 12.6
Ecuado 1950 7.4 34.3 39.8 17.7 8.2
Ecuado 1960 8.8 22.4 41.7 26.1 9.8
Ecuado 1970 9.4 16.4 42.7 30.9 10.0
Con inued on nex page
46
Table A6 – con inued om p e ious page
coho mean yea s less p ima y p ima y seconda y e ia y
Ecuado 1980 10.2 11.1 39.5 37.2 12.1
El Sal ado 1950 5.2 55.6 27.3 12.9 4.2
El Sal ado 1960 6.5 45.0 31.7 18.3 5.0
El Sal ado 1970 7.5 37.3 33.3 23.0 6.4
El Sal ado 1980 8.1 31.5 37.2 25.7 5.6
Gua emala 1950 3.5 71.9 18.5 6.4 3.3
Gua emala 1960 4.5 62.3 24.6 9.1 3.9
Gua emala 1970 5.2 55.2 29.0 11.3 4.5
Gua emala 1980
Hai i 1950 3.0 71.9 21.3 6.0 0.8
Hai i 1960 3.4 67.7 18.5 12.6 1.2
Hai i 1970 5.2 52.6 28.1 18.2 1.2
Hai i 1980
Hondu as 1950 4.5 61.8 25.8 9.7 2.7
Hondu as 1960 5.4 50.7 33.2 13.0 3.0
Hondu as 1970 6.0 41.5 42.2 13.9 2.5
Hondu as 1980
Jamaica 1950 9.7 7.4 60.5 29.4 2.7
Jamaica 1960 11.2 2.7 44.7 50.2 2.4
Jamaica 1970 12.4 2.1 20.9 74.5 2.6
Jamaica 1980
Mexico 1950 6.8 37.4 41.8 11.4 9.5
Mexico 1960 8.3 23.6 47.8 17.3 11.4
Mexico 1970 9.2 13.8 54.0 19.9 12.3
Mexico 1980 10.1 9.8 50.3 24.1 15.8
Nica agua 1950 4.9 59.7 24.4 9.3 6.5
Nica agua 1960 6.0 48.1 31.6 13.9 6.5
Nica agua 1970 6.4 42.9 33.2 16.5 7.4
Nica agua 1980 6.8 39.3 32.7 20.3 7.7
Panama 1950 8.6 21.2 45.5 21.4 11.8
Panama 1960 9.7 12.4 45.0 29.0 13.6
Panama 1970 10.2 11.0 40.8 31.1 17.2
Panama 1980 10.7 8.8 36.7 36.3 18.2
Pa aguay 1950 6.2 46.8 39.2 9.9 4.2
Pa aguay 1960 7.3 34.1 43.7 16.9 5.3
Pa aguay 1970 8.1 26.3 46.0 21.3 6.5
Pa aguay 1980
Pe u 1950 7.5 38.8 16.8 32.9 11.6
Pe u 1960 8.4 28.2 19.2 41.4 11.2
Pe u 1970 9.3 16.9 20.8 48.3 14.0
Pe u 1980 9.7 11.9 21.2 55.2 11.6
Sain Lucia 1950 9.4 72.3 3.9 20.8 3.0
Con inued on nex page
47
Table A6 – con inued om p e ious page
coho mean yea s less p ima y p ima y seconda y e ia y
Sain Lucia 1960 52.7 8.8 35.6 2.8
Sain Lucia 1970
Sain Lucia 1980
Su iname 1950 11.3 69.8 16.1 2.9
Su iname 1960 7.1 70.9 18.5 3.5
Su iname 1970 6.4 66.3 22.7 4.6
Su iname 1980 4.9 57.9 30.8 6.4
T inidad and Tobago 1950 9.0 15.8 44.6 36.4 3.1
T inidad and Tobago 1960 10.1 12.1 31.6 52.9 3.4
T inidad and Tobago 1970 11.5 6.7 20.6 67.8 4.9
T inidad and Tobago 1980 12.1 5.4 15.9 72.0 6.8
U uguay 1950 8.9 17.7 53.0 23.3 5.9
U uguay 1960 9.2 12.1 57.5 22.6 7.8
U uguay 1970 9.7 11.8 53.0 26.9 8.3
U uguay 1980 10.2 6.6 54.0 31.9 7.4
Venezuela 1950 7.4 26.0 46.2 25.5 2.2
Venezuela 1960 8.1 18.7 46.3 34.0 1.1
Venezuela 1970 8.6 14.6 43.0 42.1 0.2
Venezuela 1980
48
D Sample size in p o ince-le el es ima es
Figu e A5: CDF o he sample sizes used in es ima ing p o ince-le el in e gene a ional
mobili y
(a) Upwa d mobili y (b) Downwa d mobili y
49
E Va iabili y in p o ince-le el es ima es
Figu e A6: In e gene a ional educa ional mobili y in LAC: wi hin-coun y a iabili y
0 .2 .4 .6 .8
LAC
Pa aguay
Pe u
Nica agua
Panama
B azil
Boli ia
Su iname
Hondu as
Colombia
A gen ina
Gua emala
Venezuela
Mexico
Dominican Republic
Chile
El Sal ado
Ecuado
Cuba
Cos a Rica
Sain Lucia
U uguay
T inidad and Tobago
Hai i
Jamaica
Di e ence be ween highes and lowes S anda d de ia ion
(a) Upwa d mobili y
0 .1 .2 .3 .4
LAC
Hondu as
Nica agua
Hai i
B azil
Panama
Pa aguay
Gua emala
El Sal ado
Colombia
Ecuado
Pe u
Venezuela
Boli ia
Dominican Republic
Cos a Rica
A gen ina
Chile
Mexico
U uguay
Sain Lucia
Jamaica
T inidad and Tobago
Su iname
Cuba
Di e ence be ween highes and lowes S anda d de ia ion
(b) Downwa d mobili y
No es: The igu e epo s he ex en o which es ima es o in e gene a ional mobili y (upwa d and
downwa d) a y wi hin coun ies and o all LAC using he di e ence be ween he p o ince wi h
he highes le el and he p o ince wi h he lowes le el, as well as he s anda d de ia ion o mobili y
a he p o ince le el, by coun y. The unde lying es ima es o mobili y e lec he p obabili y ha
hose whose pa en s did no inish p ima y school will comple e a leas p ima y educa ion, in he
case o upwa d mobili y, and he p obabili y ha hose whose pa en s comple ed p ima y school
will no comple e p ima y educa ion, in he case o downwa d mobili y. LAC displays his s a is ic
a e pooling all p o inces in he sample. The blue line ma ks he (unweigh ed) a e age mobili y
a he p o ince le el. The ed line ma ks he di e ence be ween he highes and lowes mobili y a
he coun y le el, as epo ed in Table 1.
50
F Dis ic -le el es ima es
Table A7: Summa y s a is ics: dis ic -le el es ima es o educa ional IGM
upwa d downwa d
coun y dis ic s mean median s de min max Nmin Nmean mean median s de min max Nmin Nmean
Cuba 137 .845 .872 .112 .722 .94 50 58 .012 .01 .007 0 .043 178 726
U uguay 67 .798 .793 .056 .684 .94 50 151 .046 .043 .022 .003 .098 238 737
Chile 179 .758 .752 .079 .534 .969 68 378 .069 .065 .026 .014 .157 140 1181
Cos a Rica 55 .714 .719 .07 .498 .878 110 627 .075 .072 .027 .033 .156 313 1320
A gen ina 312 .713 .732 .123 .407 .986 56 756 .066 .054 .035 .013 .194 276 2674
Pe u 168 .702 .688 .127 .339 .935 111 857 .097 .081 .053 .016 .342 64 1275
Boli ia 80 .627 .642 .13 .345 .948 179 1114 .111 .104 .059 .027 .317 80 1471
Mexico 2,331 .615 .612 .132 .192 1.133 50 551 .083 .071 .055 -.052 .504 50 702
Ecuado 78 .591 .599 .115 .306 .847 180 1930 .109 .095 .047 .054 .291 244 2915
Panama 35 .588 .593 .153 .253 .803 184 766 .095 .08 .052 .031 .241 152 1706
El Sal ado 103 .553 .549 .091 .327 .754 92 459 .177 .168 .068 .043 .383 50 381
Venezuela 157 .52 .513 .103 .255 .746 194 1412 .158 .151 .05 .068 .334 135 1886
Colombia 434 .509 .498 .127 -.043 .88 123 967 .151 .145 .065 .037 .371 133 1076
Pa aguay 63 .474 .477 .119 .116 .781 208 1146 .152 .143 .051 .039 .259 96 788
Dominican Republic 66 .462 .463 .082 .301 .667 73 770 .154 .147 .036 .082 .273 94 953
B azil 2,040 .386 .387 .15 .019 .827 366 2514 .203 .184 .087 .046 .602 65 1089
Nica agua 68 .361 .373 .11 .138 .582 264 882 .214 .2 .069 .103 .423 51 501
Hondu as 96 .355 .346 .109 .112 .576 211 805 .24 .224 .08 .109 .44 52 359
Gua emala 191 .243 .237 .11 .03 .613 286 961 .268 .252 .095 .088 .649 50 329
Hai i 23 .196 .191 .063 .087 .373 845 3559 .412 .426 .087 .221 .569 91 982
o al 6,683 .523 .539 .187 -.043 1.133 50 1296 .136 .115 .093 -.052 .649 50 1027
No es: This able shows summa y s a is ics o dis ic -le el es ima es o IGM. “Upwa d” e lec s he likeli-
hood ha child en ages 14–18 whose pa en s ha e no comple ed p ima y schooling will manage o comple e
a leas p ima y educa ion. “Downwa d” e lec s he likelihood ha child en ages 14–18, whose pa en s ha e
comple ed p ima y schooling o highe will no manage o comple e p ima y educa ion. “To al” shows he
unweigh ed summa y s a is ics ac oss all dis ic s. The columns “Nmin” and “Nmean” epo he smalles
and a e age sample size, espec i ely, ac oss dis ic s. Coun ies a e so ed om highes o lowes a e age
le el o upwa d IGM ac oss dis ic s (column “mean”). Dis ic s wi h less han 50 obse a ions a e omi ed.
51
G Dis ic -le el maps o mobili y
Figu e A7: Upwa d mobili y in LAC
No es: Upwa d mobili y e lec s he likelihood ha child en ages 14–18 whose pa en s ha e no
comple ed p ima y schooling will manage o comple e a leas p ima y educa ion. This g aph uses
p o inces o S . Lucia, Jamaica, T inidad and Tobago, and Su iname because hese coun ies do
no ha e a ine adminis a i e uni s in he da a se .
52
Figu e A8: Downwa d mobili y in LAC
No es: Downwa d mobili y e lec s he likelihood ha child en ages 14–18 whose pa en s com-
ple ed a leas p ima y schooling will no manage o comple e p ima y educa ion. This g aph uses
p o inces o S . Lucia, Jamaica, T inidad and Tobago, and Su iname because hese coun ies do
no ha e a ine adminis a i e uni s in he da a se .
53
J Es ima es o upwa d IGM using p ima y- o-seconda y
educa ion
Table A11: Coun y-le el es ima es o upwa d IGM using p ima y- o-seconda y educa ion
(1) (2)
mobili y / N census yea s upwa d N
age ange 19–25 19–25
T inidad and Tobago 1970,1980,1990,2000,2011 .466 8,506
Pe u 1993,2007 .416 131,085
Sain Lucia 1980,1991 .388 1,452
Jamaica 1982,1991,2001 .315 4,304
Boli ia 1976,1992,2001,2012 .237 66,410
Chile 1970,1982,1992,2002 .19 97,017
B azil 1960,1970,1980,1991,2000,2010 .187 6,142,101
Cuba 2002,2012 .187 4,037
U uguay 1963,1975,1985,1996,2006,2011 .178 25,192
A gen ina 1970,1980,1991,2001,2010 .177 226,100
Dominican Republic 1981,2002,2010 .161 64,387
Panama 1960,1970,1980,1990,2000,2010 .161 23,221
Venezuela 1971,1981,1990,2001 .148 185,993
Cos a Rica 1973,1984,2000,2011 .133 28,829
Ecuado 1974,1982,1990,2001,2010 .128 121,410
Colombia 1973,1985,1993,2005 .121 354,007
Mexico 1970,1990,2000,2010 .107 1,008,707
El Sal ado 1992,2007 .092 37,462
Pa aguay 1962,1972,1982,1992,2002 .085 54,934
Hai i 1971,1982,2003 .073 62,660
Gua emala 1964,1973,1981,1994,2002 .042 125,087
Hondu as 1974,1988,2001 .036 52,754
Nica agua 1971,1995,2005 -.004 47,560
Su iname 2012 -.094 200
mean / o al .164 8,873,415
No es: Column (1) gi es upwa d IGM es ima es. I e lec s he likelihood ha indi iduals
ages 19–25 whose pa en s ha e no comple ed p ima y schooling will manage o comple e a
leas seconda y educa ion. Column (2) gi es he numbe o obse a ions used o es ima e he
coun y-speci ic IGM s a is ics (indi iduals wi h pa en s whose educa ion is epo ed in he
censuses). Coun ies a e so ed om highes o lowes le el o upwa d IGM (column (1)).
“Mean” gi es he unweigh ed a e age o he 24 coun y es ima es.
60
Table A12: P o ince-le el es ima es o upwa d IGM using p ima y- o-seconda y
educa ion
upwa d
coun y p o inces mean median s de min max Nmin Nmean
Pe u 25 .481 .442 .165 .246 .748 250 5243
Cuba 14 .323 .342 .049 .231 .384 155 309
Boli ia 9 .251 .254 .08 .154 .384 348 7379
Chile 44 .203 .205 .062 .093 .331 114 1694
Dominican Republic 23 .194 .201 .046 .067 .275 588 1795
Cos a Rica 7 .166 .167 .042 .12 .244 2051 4118
A gen ina 24 .155 .15 .048 .089 .322 219 9421
Mexico 32 .155 .149 .039 .096 .244 2143 31522
Colombia 22 .149 .136 .047 .092 .254 141 16091
El Sal ado 14 .148 .145 .044 .097 .27 1209 2676
Venezuela 22 .147 .147 .029 .082 .214 643 8454
U uguay 19 .144 .139 .027 .094 .191 264 1326
B azil 25 .14 .128 .05 .074 .249 4716 245684
Ecuado 14 .136 .134 .031 .098 .204 840 8672
Panama 7 .131 .127 .054 .055 .224 457 3317
Nica agua 12 .107 .114 .051 .04 .19 807 3963
Pa aguay 14 .076 .067 .048 .032 .211 1312 4225
Gua emala 22 .049 .047 .021 .012 .106 1614 5686
Hai i 4 .046 .041 .011 .039 .063 4211 15665
Hondu as 18 .045 .036 .024 .01 .105 152 2931
o al 371 .173 .149 .118 .01 .748 114 23884
No es: This able shows summa y s a is ics o p o ince-le el es ima es o upwa d IGM. “Upwa d”
e lec s he likelihood ha indi iduals ages 19–25 whose pa en s ha e no comple ed p ima y schooling
will manage o comple e a leas seconda y educa ion. “To al” shows he unweigh ed summa y s a is-
ics ac oss all p o inces. The columns “Nmin” and “Nmean” epo he smalles and a e age sample
size, espec i ely, ac oss p o inces. P o inces wi h less han 50 obse a ions a e omi ed.
61
Table A13: Dis ic -le el es ima es o upwa d IGM using p ima y- o-seconda y educa ion
upwa d
coun y dis ic s mean median s de min max Nmin Nmean
Pe u 168 .395 .365 .175 .084 .807 105 785
Cuba 137 .338 .354 .091 .149 .479 52 81
Boli ia 80 .202 .194 .095 .064 .473 150 830
Chile 179 .2 .192 .082 .04 .478 81 421
Dominican Republic 66 .193 .187 .056 .067 .433 65 635
Cos a Rica 55 .179 .181 .06 .057 .304 117 524
B azil 2,040 .174 .168 .079 -.018 .471 278 1990
El Sal ado 103 .155 .139 .076 .023 .381 87 364
U uguay 67 .15 .144 .065 .024 .355 51 156
A gen ina 312 .139 .14 .053 .012 .325 54 727
Colombia 434 .131 .115 .066 -.097 .321 82 816
Venezuela 157 .128 .123 .046 .028 .257 190 1185
Ecuado 78 .126 .115 .049 .026 .241 142 1577
Panama 35 .123 .098 .075 .011 .276 176 663
Nica agua 68 .11 .101 .054 .017 .232 192 699
Mexico 2,331 .109 .098 .068 -.041 .635 50 452
Pa aguay 63 .077 .07 .051 -.067 .211 153 900
Gua emala 191 .043 .039 .03 -.005 .156 172 655
Hondu as 96 .037 .032 .028 -.006 .141 152 550
Hai i 23 .034 .033 .024 -.003 .103 664 2724
o al 6,683 .144 .127 .093 -.097 .807 50 1042
No es: This able shows summa y s a is ics o dis ic -le el es ima es o upwa d IGM. “Upwa d”
e lec s he likelihood ha indi iduals ages 19–25 whose pa en s ha e no comple ed p ima y schooling
will manage o comple e a leas seconda y educa ion. “To al” shows he unweigh ed summa y s a is-
ics ac oss all dis ic s. The columns “Nmin” and “Nmean” epo he smalles and a e age sample
size, espec i ely, ac oss dis ic s. Dis ic s wi h less han 50 obse a ions a e omi ed.
62
K T ansi ion ma ix by coun y
Figu e A11: T ansi ion ma ix by coun y
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(a) A gen ina
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(b) Boli ia
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(c) B azil
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(d) Chile
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(e) Colombia
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
( ) Cos a Rica
63
Figu e A12: T ansi ion ma ix by coun y
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(a) Cuba
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(b) Dominican Republic
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(c) Ecuado
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(d) El Sal ado
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(e) Gua emala
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
( ) Hai i
64
Figu e A13: T ansi ion ma ix by coun y
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(a) Hondu as
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(b) Jamaica
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(c) Mexico
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(d) Nica agua
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(e) Panama
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
( ) Pa aguay
65
Figu e A14: T ansi ion ma ix by coun y
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(a) Pe u
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(b) Sain Lucia
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(c) T inidad and Tobago
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(d) U uguay
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
likelihood o child a ainmen
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
ac ion by pa en al a ainmen
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
Less han p ima y
P ima y comple ed
Seconda y comple ed
Uni e si y comple ed
(e) Panama
66
Figu e A15: Upwa d and downwa d mobili y in LAC compa ed o A ica
Sou h Sudan
Mozambique
Sudan
E hiopia
Malawi
Gua emala
Bu kina Faso
Guinea
Nica agua
Mali
Hai i
Libe ia
Sie a Leona
Senegal
Rwanda
El Sal ado
Uganda
B azil
Dominican Republic
Benin
Hondu as
Colombia
Mo occo
Pa aguay
Leso ho
Kenya
Pe u
Zambia
Came oon
Togo
Sain Lucia
Venezuela
Su iname
Ecuado
Ghana
Tanzania
Mexico
Boli ia
Nige ia
Cos a Rica
Panama
Egyp
Cuba
Zimbabwe
U uguay
Chile
Bo swana
A gen ina
Sou h A ica
T inidad and Tobago
Jamaica
0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Upwa d mobili y (ages 14-18)
A ica
LAC Jamaica
T inidad and Tobago
Cuba
A gen ina
Su iname
Mexico
Panama
Chile
U uguay
Sou h A ica
Boli ia
Bo swana
Egyp
Nige ia
Cos a Rica
Ecuado
Venezuela
Mo occo
Pe u
Pa aguay
Came oon
Sain Lucia
Colombia
Zimbabwe
Dominican Republic
Hondu as
Ghana
Gua emala
El Sal ado
B azil
Tanzania
Togo
Zambia
Kenya
Nica agua
Hai i
Benin
Senegal
Mali
Bu kina Faso
Leso ho
E hiopia
Uganda
Sie a Leona
Sudan
Guinea
Rwanda
Malawi
Mozambique
Libe ia
Sou h Sudan
0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Downwa d mobili y (ages 14-18)
A ica
LAC
No es: Es ima es o A ican coun ies come om Alesina e al. (2021).
67
Figu e A16: Highly nega i e co ela ion be ween upwa d and downwa d mobili y
A gen ina
Boli ia
B azil
Chile
Colombia
Cos a Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuado
El Sal ado
Gua emala
Hai i
Hondu as
Jamaica
Mexico
Nica agua
Panama
Pa aguay
Pe u
Sain Lucia
Su iname
T inidad and Tobago
U uguay
Venezuela
IGM UP = .8199 + -2.8106 IGM down
(.0261) (.2211)
.2 .4 .6 .8 1
Upwa d IGM
0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25
Downwa d IGM
Figu e A17: Upwa d mobili y by u ban/ u al s a us
0 .5 10 .5 10 .5 1
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
BOL BRA CHL COL
CRI GTM HND MEX
PAN PRY URY
U ban Ru al
Upwa d mobili y
Bi h decade
G aphs by Coun y
68
Figu e A18: Downwa d mobili y by u ban/ u al s a us
0 .2 .4 .6 .80 .2 .4 .6 .80 .2 .4 .6 .8
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
BOL BRA CHL COL
CRI GTM HND MEX
PAN PRY URY
U ban Ru al
Downwa d mobili y
Bi h decade
G aphs by Coun y
Figu e A19: Upwa d mobili y by gende
0 .5 10 .5 10 .5 10 .5 1
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
ARG BOL BRA CHL
COL CRI ECU GTM
HND MEX NIC PAN
PRY 780 URY VEN
Male Female
Upwa d mobili y
Bi h decade
G aphs by Coun y
69
