Rural energy poverty: An investigation into socioeconomic drivers and implications for off-grid households in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Lesala, Mahali Elizabe h; Mukumba, Pa ick; KeCh is , Obileke
A icle
Ru al ene gy po e y: An in es iga ion in o socioeconomic
d i e s and implica ions o o -g id households in he
Eas e n Cape P o ince, Sou h A ica
Economies
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
MDPI – Mul idisciplina y Digi al Publishing Ins i u e, Basel
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Lesala, Mahali Elizabe h; Mukumba, Pa ick; KeCh is , Obileke (2025) : Ru al
ene gy po e y: An in es iga ion in o socioeconomic d i e s and implica ions o o -g id
households in he Eas e n Cape P o ince, Sou h A ica, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099, MDPI, Basel,
Vol. 13, Iss. 5, pp. 1-16,
h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13050128
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Academic Edi o : Angeliki
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Recei ed: 25 Feb ua y 2025
Re ised: 15 Ap il 2025
Accep ed: 5 May 2025
Published: 9 May 2025
Ci a ion: Lesala, M. E., Mukumba, P.,
& KeCh is , O. (2025). Ru al Ene gy
Po e y: An In es iga ion in o
Socioeconomic D i e s and
Implica ions o O -G id Households
in he Eas e n Cape P o ince, Sou h
A ica. Economies,13(5), 128.
h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/
economies13050128
Copy igh : © 2025 by he au ho s.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land.
This a icle is an open access a icle
dis ibu ed unde he e ms and
condi ions o he C ea i e Commons
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(h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/
licenses/by/4.0/).
A icle
Ru al Ene gy Po e y: An In es iga ion in o Socioeconomic
D i e s and Implica ions o O -G id Households in he Eas e n
Cape P o ince, Sou h A ica
Mahali Elizabe h Lesala * , Pa ick Mukumba and Obileke KeCh is
Renewable Ene gy Resea ch Niche A ea, Compu a ional Science/Physics, Uni e si y o Fo Ha e, Alice 5700,
Sou h A ica; [email p o ec ed] (P.M.); [email p o ec ed] (O.K.)
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : Ene gy po e y is a signi ican ba ie o sus ainable de elopmen , limi ing
access o mode n ene gy solu ions and exace ba ing socioeconomic inequali ies in Sou h
A ica. This esea ch iden i ies key socioeconomic ac o s con ibu ing o ene gy po e y
among o -g id households using he household-speci ic ene gy po e y line. A c oss-
sec ional s udy was conduc ed using a well-s uc u ed ques ionnai e among 53 households.
The indings e eal signi ican gende dispa i ies, wi h emale-headed households being
mo e ulne able o ene gy po e y, which con inues o subjec hem o economic ha dship
and social ma ginaliza ion. Addi ionally, while la ge households gene ally ace highe
ene gy demands, hey we e ound o be less likely o expe ience ene gy po e y. The
indings also challenge he ‘ene gy ladde hypo hesis’ by showing ha educa ion, while
po en ially enabling be e ene gy awa eness, does no gua an ee imp o ed ene gy access
in o -g id a eas due o in as uc u al limi a ions. Social g an dependency was ound
o be s ongly co ela ed wi h ene gy po e y, unde sco ing he inadequacy o income
ans e s in add essing he sys emic ba ie s o ene gy access. The indings emphasize
he need o mul idimensional, gende - esponsi e policy in e en ions ha add ess bo h
in as uc u al and socioeconomic ba ie s o ene gy access, pa icula ly in u al Sou h
A ica. These insigh s a e c ucial o de eloping a ge ed in e en ions o alle ia e ene gy
po e y and os e sus ainable de elopmen in o -g id communi ies.
Keywo ds: ene gy access; ene gy po e y; o -g id households; socioeconomic d i e s
1. In oduc ion
Ene gy po e y is widely unde s ood as a o m o dep i a ion om adequa e essen ial
ene gy se ices like hea ing, cooling, ligh ing, and household appliance powe (Lozano
& Taboada,2020). This issue is pa icula ly acu e in de eloping egions like ub-Saha an
A ica, whe e millions o households lack bo h he inancial means o a o d mode n ene gy
se ices and he physical in as uc u e needed o eliable access (Ri chie e al.,2019).
Economic down u ns, such as he global inancial c isis and he 2020 COVID-19 pandemic,
ha e wo sened his si ua ion, pushing o e 100 million people in o ex eme po e y in he
egion (Masuku,2024;Wo ld Bank,2020). Consequen ly, poo and low-income households
con inue o s uggle o mee basic ene gy needs such as cooking, hea ing, and ligh ing,
limi ing hei oppo uni ies o educa ion, income gene a ion, and o e all socioeconomic
de elopmen (Lesala e al.,2024).
Sou h A ica is no excep ion, wi h ene gy po e y deeply oo ed in socioeconomic
and geog aphic dispa i ies limi ing access o essen ial se ices and economic oppo uni ies.
Economies 2025,13, 128 h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13050128
Economies 2025,13, 128 2 o 16
Many u al and pe i-u ban a eas in Sou h A ica s ill lack access o clean ene gy. E en as
abou 86% o he popula ion has access o elec ici y (Longe,2021), he emaining 14% who
li e p ima ily in u al a eas s ill expe ience ene gy insecu i y. Though income inequali y
does no ac as a ba ie o accessing ene gy, i has ende ed mode n ene gy se ices oo
expensi e o many low-income households (Sa kodie & Adams,2020), wi h he poo
spending abou 27% o hei income o ene gy (Lu e al.,2020; an Nieke k e al.,2022).
The Sou h A ican challenge is u he wo sened by he ac ha policies aimed a
alle ia ing ene gy po e y, such as ee basic elec ici y (FBE), p ima ily bene i households
al eady connec ed o he g id. As a esul , o -g id u al communi ies emain excluded
om such suppo , deepening hei ene gy insecu i y. The slow pace o g id expansion
con inues o disp opo iona ely a ec u al a eas (Masuku,2024), lea ing many communi-
ies wi hou access o mode n ene gy. Wi hou a ge ed in e en ions, u al communi ies’
isk being apped in a cycle o ch onic ene gy po e y, posing se ious challenges o Sou h
A ica’s b oade de elopmen goals. Howe e , o yea s, he discussion o ene gy po e y
in Sou h A ica has ecei ed limi ed a en ion. Ene gy po e y was o en o e shadowed by
b oade discussions on gene al po e y and na ional de elopmen challenges, ea ed as
jus ano he aspec o socioeconomic dep i a ion a he han a dis inc challenge equi ing
a ge ed solu ions. This app oach o e looked he unique s uggles o o -g id u al commu-
ni ies, whe e geog aphical isola ion and in as uc u al neglec u he compound ene gy
access issues. As a esul , he li e a u e su ounding ene gy po e y was spa se, wi h li le
ocus on he speci ic expe iences and needs o hose li ing in ene gy-dep i ed condi ions.
Howe e , ecen yea s ha e wi nessed a signi ican shi in his na a i e. A g owing body
o esea ch in Sou h A ica has begun o highligh he signi icance o ene gy po e y and
i s mul i ace ed na u e. This ansi ion is pa icula ly pe inen o he ising ene gy cos s,
which ha e placed a inancial bu den on households al eady s uggling o make ends
mee , while also a ec ed by he equen powe ou ages o load-shedding ha dis up s
hei daily ac i i ies (Isandla Ins i u e,2024). As he u gency o add ess his phenomenon
becomes e iden , s udies ha e begun o explo e i s a ious dimensions, including e-
gional dispa i ies, o e ing insigh s in o i s na u e and he ac o s con ibu ing o pe sis en
ene gy dep i a ion.
No able wo ks o Ye and Koch (2021) ad anced he discussion by employing he
household le el ene gy po e y line o de e mine he bo h he p e alence and se e i y
o ene gy po e y among Sou h A ican households. Thei esul s showed ha Sou h
A ican households no only su e om ene gy po e y bu ha he se e i y o ene gy
po e y is disp opo iona ely expe ienced by poo households. Building on his, Ye and
Koch (2023) examined ene gy po e y om a mul idimensional pe spec i e and showed
signi ican u ban– u al inequali ies in he access and a o dabili y o ene gy. Thei s udy
no ed ha u al households ha e mo e di icul y accessing clean ene gy and a e hi ha de
by a o dabili y conce ns.
Mgwambani e al. (2018) u ilized su ey da a om he communi y o Louis ille in
Mpumalanga and ound ha many households epo ed dissa is ac ion wi h hei ene gy
sou ces since hey we e conce ned abou cos s ising wi h a dec ease in income, which
con ibu ed o he eliance on adi ional uels such as i ewood o cooking, hea ing, and
ligh ing. S udies by Masekela and Semenya (2021) and Ne shipise and Semenya (2022)
e ealed simila ends in Ga-Malahlela and Thulamela (Limpopo), hus ad oca ing o
he adop ion o adi ional uels. Thei esul s showed ha while elec i ica ion e o s
con inued, socioeconomic ac o s like low income, lack o educa ion, and access o ee
basic elec ici y se ices pe sis ed in p omo ing he use o i ewood. Simila ly, Oyekale and
Molelekoa (2023) epo ed equi alen scena ios in he Wes e n Cape and KwaZulu-Na al
Economies 2025,13, 128 3 o 16
egions, no ably wi h space hea ing, indica ing ha poo elec ici y access is p e alen in
many a eas o Sou h A ica.
Ismail and Khembo (2015) used da a om he Na ional Income Dynamics Su ey
(NIDS) ca ied ou in 2012 and iden i ied se e al impo an p edic o s o ene gy po e y,
including household expendi u e pa e ns, ace, educa ion, household size, and elec ici y
access. Thei indings also e ealed ha , despi e p og ess in elec i ica ion, many house-
holds, pa icula ly in u al a eas, emain elian on adi ional uels such as i ewood due
o a o dabili y cons ain s and o he socioeconomic ac o s.
Nga a a e al. (2022) also e ealed speci ic ulne abili ies, pa icula ly among emale-
headed households in Black/A ican u al communi ies, whe e ene gy po e y is wo sened
by a combina ion o ac o s such as gende , ace, and income inequali ies, which compels
g ea e eliance on adi ional uels. Ningi e al. (2020), on he o he hand, using he
Mul idimensional Ene gy Po e y Index (MEPI), ound ha households in he Melani
illage in he u al a eas o he Eas e n Cape we e gene ally ene gy secu e. They ound ha
ene gy secu i y in his communi y was closely de e mined by ma i al s a us, household size,
elec ici y a o dabili y, and income sou ces. Howe e , hese esul s seem less e lec i e o
o -g id, emo e u al a eas, whe e ene gy dep i a ion is mo e keenly el due o he absence
o mode n ene gy in as uc u e, and es ic hei ele ance o he o -g id, non-elec i ied
communi ies. Dinis e al. (2023) expanded on his, pa icula ly emphasizing i s in e ac ion
wi h s uc u al injus ices and geog aphic isola ion. Thei analysis e ealed ha cu en
de ini ions o ene gy po e y, as e lec ed in SDG indica o s, do no e ec i ely add ess he
la ge cha ac e is ics o a o dabili y, dependabili y, and sus ainabili y. They claim ha
weak policy amewo ks ha igno e sys emic imbalances and a lack o mode n ene gy
in as uc u e wo sen ene gy sca ci y in o -g id en i onmen s, disp opo iona ely a ec ing
u al, ulne able people.
Building on his, Lesala e al. (2023) explo ed he ene gy po e y o he o -g id
emo e communi y o he Uppe Blinkwa e . A compelling obse a ion eme ges om hei
indings, indica ing ha despi e he lack o g id elec ici y, al e na i e ene gy sou ces like
pa a in, liqui ied pe oleum gas (LPG), and i ewood ha e p o ided households in his
communi y wi h some le el o unc ional ene gy access and enabled hem o mee some
basic ene gy needs. Howe e , elying on hese sou ces does no equa e o access o mode n
ene gy se ices. Such se ices a e essen ial o d i ing socioeconomic ans o ma ion.
This highligh s a c i ical gap in unde s anding he eali y o o -g id a eas, whe e ene gy
po e y is shaped no only by access bu also by he quali y and sus ainabili y o ene gy
sou ces. The indings in Lesala e al. (2023) challenge he common unde s anding o ene gy
po e y, which ypically cen e s on he absence o elec ici y and o he mode n ene gy
se ices, wi hou conside ing he b oade dynamics in ene gy use in o -g id communi ies.
This highligh s he u gen need o u he explo e ene gy po e y in emo e, o -g id
communi ies. Such explo a ion would ex end he concep ual bounda ies o ene gy po e y
and a icula e he expe iences o ulne able u al communi ies comple ely disconnec ed
om mode n ene gy se ices.
This s udy shi s he discou se om simplis ic measu es o ene gy access owa ds a
mo e comp ehensi e unde s anding o he li ed eali ies o households in o -g id com-
muni ies. While many de ini ions ocus on elec ici y a o dabili y (Nga a a e al.,2022;
Ningi e al.,2020;Ye & Koch,2021), ene gy po e y in his s udy is no me ely unde s ood
as he absence o g id elec ici y, bu also as a mul i ace ed condi ion in which households
lack access o clean, a o dable, and sus ainable o ms o ene gy necessa y o mee basic
needs such as cooking, ligh ing, and hea ing. D awing om Lesala e al. (2023), whe e
o he ene gy sou ces like pa a in and LPG p o ide some deg ee o ene gy secu i y, he
de ini ion also conside s he quali y, e iciency, and sus ainabili y o he ene gy sou ces
Economies 2025,13, 128 4 o 16
and he socioeconomic cons ain s ha hinde he ansi ion o households o mode n
ene gy sys ems.
This app oach mo es beyond con en ional bina y de ini ions and is consis en wi h
b oade de ini ions ha ecognize bo h ma e ial dep i a ion, e e ing o he lack o neces-
sa y in as uc u e, and capabili y dep i a ion, which is cha ac e ized by limi ed income,
access, and choices as c i ical dimensions o ene gy po e y in o -g id communi ies. I
highligh s he impo ance o explo ing he b oade socioeconomic condi ions ha shape
u al and o -g id ene gy eali ies. I is agains his backd op ha he p esen s udy is
unde aken, aiming o explo e he ac o s in luencing ene gy po e y in he emo e, o -g id
communi y o Uppe Blinkwa e .
This s udy con ibu es o he body o li e a u e by p o iding a e insigh in o he li ed
expe iences and d i e s o ene gy po e y in emo e, ma ginalized communi ies ha a e
o en o e looked in na ional ene gy policy discou se and la ge-scale ene gy access su eys.
I p o ides a b oade and mo e e lec i e unde s anding o ene gy po e y in o -g id a eas;
as such, i in o ms policies ha a e be e sui ed o he speci ic needs o simila communi ies.
Addi ionally, he s udy suppo s b oade e o s aimed a imp o ing he quali y o li e o
ulne able popula ions by o e ing p ac ical insigh s o policymake s seeking o expand
ene gy access and alle ia e ene gy po e y in emo e a eas.
The emainde o his a icle is s uc u ed as ollows: Sec ion 2desc ibes he me hod-
ology used in his s udy, including he da a collec ion p ocess and analy ical amewo k.
Sec ion 3p esen s he esul s, highligh ing he key de e minan s o ene gy po e y in Uppe
Blinkwa e . Sec ion 4o e s a discussion o he indings, connec ing hem o b oade policy
and de elopmen implica ions. Finally, Sec ion 5concludes he a icle wi h ecommenda-
ions o a ge ed in e en ions and sugges ions o u u e esea ch on ene gy po e y in
o -g id u al communi ies.
2. Me hodology
2.1. Desc ip ion o he S udy A ea
The s udy was ca ied ou in he small, isola ed u al se lemen known as Uppe
Blinkwa e wi hin he Raymond Mhlaba Municipali y. Uppe Blinkwa e is si ua ed a
coo dina es 32
◦
34
′
46.7
′ ′
S and 26
◦
33
′
33.8
′ ′
E a an ele a ion o app oxima ely 900 m abo e
sea le el. The Municipali y is cha ac e ized by dispe sed se lemen s ha make accessibili y
and in as uc u e pa icula ly challenging. As a esul , po e y and unemploymen le els
a e amongs he highes in A ica, wi h many households elian upon social g an s as
hei p ima y sou ce o income (Ra anbach e al.,2019). Uppe Blinkwa e is home o
some 67 households, mos ly o Xhosa ances y, housing app oxima ely 254 people in
o al. The inspi a ion o selec ing his communi y o his s udy s ems om i being he
i s communi y o be iden i ied by he P o incial go e nmen o he Eas e n Cape as an
in ended bene icia y o a enewable ene gy pilo p ojec o in oduce a hyb id mini g id o
mee u al elec i ica ion challenges in he Eas e n Cape p o ince, and in Sou h A ica. Two
ex emely emo e communi ies we e iden i ied, including Uppe Blinkwa e , which was
ul ima ely selec ed due o i s ela i ely easie accessibili y. Al hough he p ojec had no
been implemen ed a he ime o his s udy, ea ly engagemen wi h he communi y e ealed
a s ong awa eness o he limi a ions o hei cu en ene gy sou ces and an exp essed
in e es in mode n ene gy se ices. As such, he p ojec ep esen s bo h he in e en ion
and a poin o e e ence o unde s anding he b oade implica ions o ene gy po e y
in emo e a eas. Howe e , his s udy does no e alua e he ou comes o he mini-g id
in e en ion bu a he examines he de e minan s o ene gy po e y. Figu e 1shows he
loca ion o he communi y o Uppe Blinkwa e , Raymond Mhlaba Municipali y wi hin he
Ama hole Dis ic Municipali y in he Eas e n Cape p o ince wi hin Sou h A ica.

Economies 2025,13, 128 5 o 16
Economies2025,13,xFORPEERREVIEW5o 17

wi hin heAma holeDis ic Municipali yin heEas e nCapep o incewi hinSou hA -
ica.

Figu e1.Uppe Blinkwa e loca ion.Sou ce:(Kühnele al.,2021;Lesalae al.,2024).
2.2.Resea chDesign
The esea chdesigno  hiss udyisquan i a i e,whichallows o da a obesys em-
a icallycollec edandanalyzed,and husbeingable oiden i yandquan i ywha a ib-
u escon ibu e oene gypo e ywhilehighligh inghow heymaybeimpac inghouse-
holdaccess oandusageo ene gy.Using hisme hodo  esea chensu esgene alizabili y,
meaning ha  esul sobse edinasmallsamplecanbegene alized oala ge g oupo 
peopleo wi hincompa ablesi ua ions,making hes udymo e ele an andp ac ical.As
a esul , heconclusionscanbeconside ed alidand eliable,whichin u n o msas ong
basis o e idence-basedpolicy ecommenda ionsanddecision-making.
2.3.Da aCollec ion
Theda acollec ionp ocessincludedde elopingaques ionnai e h ougha ho ough
examina iono  heexis ingli e a u eonene gypo e yandhouseholdene gyconsump-
ion.Da a o  hiss udywe ecollec edinNo embe 2019.Theques ionnai econ ained
householddemog aphics,household-le elda aonene gyexpendi u es,includingallex-
is ing o mso ene gy.P e- es ingwasconduc edin hecommuni y o ques ionnai eand
con en  alidi yand henecessa yadjus men swe emadeacco dingly.Toensu eunde -
s andingo  hep ocess, igh s,andexpec a ions, hesu eywasconduc edinXhosa, he
Sou hA ica
Figu e 1. Uppe Blinkwa e loca ion. Sou ce: (Kühnel e al.,2021;Lesala e al.,2024).
2.2. Resea ch Design
The esea ch design o his s udy is quan i a i e, which allows o da a o be sys ema -
ically collec ed and analyzed, and hus being able o iden i y and quan i y wha a ibu es
con ibu e o ene gy po e y while highligh ing how hey may be impac ing household
access o and usage o ene gy. Using his me hod o esea ch ensu es gene alizabili y,
meaning ha esul s obse ed in a small sample can be gene alized o a la ge g oup o
people o wi hin compa able si ua ions, making he s udy mo e ele an and p ac ical. As
a esul , he conclusions can be conside ed alid and eliable, which in u n o ms a s ong
basis o e idence-based policy ecommenda ions and decision-making.
2.3. Da a Collec ion
The da a collec ion p ocess included de eloping a ques ionnai e h ough a ho ough
examina ion o he exis ing li e a u e on ene gy po e y and household ene gy consump-
ion. Da a o his s udy we e collec ed in No embe 2019. The ques ionnai e con ained
household demog aphics, household-le el da a on ene gy expendi u es, including all
exis ing o ms o ene gy. P e- es ing was conduc ed in he communi y o ques ionnai e
and con en alidi y and he necessa y adjus men s we e made acco dingly. To ensu e
unde s anding o he p ocess, igh s, and expec a ions, he su ey was conduc ed in Xhosa,
he local language. Responden s we e also made o unde s and ha pa icipa ion was
en i ely olun a y, and assu ed o espec o hei p i acy.
Economies 2025,13, 128 6 o 16
Since he Uppe Blinkwa e communi y is small, we aimed o include all 67 households
in he su ey because i is challenging o ob ain a ep esen a i e sample due o he small
popula ion size. Sample size classes o his magni ude o en esul in e en smalle samples,
u he limi ing he gene alizabili y o any conclusions d awn (Fabe & Fonseca,2014;
Ko ngiebel,2015). To add ess his limi a ion, Ko ngiebel (2015) ecommends assessing he
en i e popula ion o educe dis o ion in he indings. Following his ecommenda ion, all
67 households in Uppe Blinkwa e we e conside ed eligible o he su ey. Howe e , due
o a ailabili y cons ain s, in e iews we e conduc ed wi h 53 heads o household.
Da a we e cleaned ex ensi ely a e collec ion hen analyzed using STATA so wa e
e sion 15. Desc ip i e s a is ics ( equency dis ibu ions, pe cen ages, and mean alues)
we e used in addi ion o eg ession analysis o in es iga e he main d i e s o ene gy
po e y in Uppe Blinkwa e .
2.4. Da a Analysis
The p ima y ocus o his s udy is o iden i y he d i e s o ene gy po e y. While
p e ious esea ch has al eady es ablished he ene gy po e y s a us o households (Lesala
e al.,2023), his s udy builds upon hose indings by examining he key ac o s con ibu ing
o ene gy po e y. The Fos e –G ee –Tho becke (FGT) app oach was used o de e mine
whe he households in his communi y we e ene gy poo o no . Fi s , FGT de i es he
ene gy po e y line and uses he pe capi a ene gy expendi u e. Unlike he adi ional ixed
h esholds, such as he 10% expendi u e ule, which assumes an equal ene gy bu den ac oss
all households, and ails o accoun o a ia ions in income le els, consump ion pa e ns,
and household sizes (Ye & Koch,2021), he FGT app oach enables a mo e accu a e and
con ex -speci ic classi ica ion o ene gy po e y by accoun ing o di e ences in household
income, size, and ene gy consump ion pa e ns, a he han elying on one-size- i s-all
h esholds. Al hough he FGT me hod no only iden i ies whe he a household is ene gy
poo bu also cap u es a ying deg ees o dep i a ion, e ealing bo h he dep h and se e i y
o ene gy po e y, o he pu poses o his s udy, he ocus is solely on de e mining whe he
o no a household is ene gy poo . This bina y classi ica ion is essen ial o analyzing he
socioeconomic and demog aphic ac o s ha in luence a household’s ene gy po e y s a us.
Households alling below he FGT-de i ed ene gy po e y line, ega dless o he ex en
o hei dep i a ion, a e he e o e ea ed uni o mly as ene gy poo in he subsequen
eg ession analysis.
To explo e he unde lying de e minan s o ene gy po e y, a p obi eg ession model
was employed. Gi en ha he dependen a iable is bina y, indica ing whe he a household
is ene gy poo o no , he p obi model is well-sui ed o his ype o analysis. I allows
o he es ima ion o he p obabili y ha a household alls below he ene gy po e y line,
based on a se o obse ed socioeconomic and demog aphic cha ac e is ics. The p obi
model was p e e ed o e o he bina y esponse models such as logi models, due o
i s unde lying assump ion o la en a iable o mula ion and i s equen applica ion in
wel a e and po e y analysis li e a u e, whe e he no mal dis ibu ion is o en conside ed
mo e app op ia e. Following G eene (2012), he model is speci ied as:
Y* =∑n
i=1βiXi+ϵ=β1X1+β2X2+· · · +βnXn+ϵ(1)
whe e
Y*
ep esen s he dependen a iable,
βi
ep esen s he pa ame e o be es ima ed,
Xi
ep esen s speci ic household cha ac e is ics, and
ϵ
is he e o e m assumed o ollow a
s anda d no mal dis ibu ion (ϵ~ N(0,1)). The obse ed ou come Y is bina y:
Y=(1 i Y* >0(indica ing ene gy po e y),
0, o he wise
Economies 2025,13, 128 7 o 16
The p obabili y ha a household alls below he es ablished ene gy po e y line
(P(Y=1)) is exp essed as
P(Y=1)=Φ(βX+ϵ)(2)
P(Y=0)=1−Φ(βX+ϵ)(3)
whe e P(Y = 1) ep esen s he pa ame e o be es ima ed, ha is, he p obabili y ha a
household is below he ene gy po e y line (indica ing po e y incidence),
Φ
is he cumu-
la i e dis ibu ion unc ion o he s anda d no mal dis ibu ion, and Y* is a la en a iable
indica ing whe he he expendi u e o a pa icula household alls below he consump ion
po e y line. This p obabili y indica es he likelihood ha speci ic household ea u es
posi i ely o nega i ely in luence he isk o being ene gy poo . Wi hin his amewo k,
coe icien s
βi
associa e wi h each ac o and ep esen he di ec ion and magni ude o in lu-
ence on ene gy po e y. Fu he mo e, pos -es ima ion analysis, speci ically ma ginal e ec s,
was also pe o med o in e p e he o all he independen a iables on he p obabili y o
ene gy po e y which p o ides mo e s aigh o wa d insigh in o he possible a ge ed
policymaking o educe ene gy po e y o he communi y. Explici ly, he model a iables
a e exp essed in Table 1. These indica o s p o ide a comp ehensi e unde s anding o how
a ious socioeconomic ac o s in luence households’ abili y o access eliable and a o dable
ene gy in he Uppe Blinkwa e communi y.
Table 1. Va iable desc ip ion.
Va iable Desc ip ion
Y Ene gy po e y s a us (1 i ene gy poo households; 0 o he wise)
X1Gende o household head (1 i male, 0 o emale)
X2Age o household head (con inuous a iable)
X3Household size (numbe o indi iduals in he household)
X4Fo mal educa ion o he household head (1 i o mally educa ed,
0 i no )
X5Employmen s a us o he household head (1 i employed, 0 i no )
X6Dwelling ype (1 o b ick house, 0 o mud house o o he ypes)
X7
Log o social g an amoun (na u al log o he amoun ecei ed om
social g an s)
To u he es he in e p e abili y and obus ness o he p obi model es ima es, we
compu ed he a e age ma ginal e ec s (AME) a e es ima ion. Ma ginal e ec s quan i y
he change in he p edic ed p obabili y o being ene gy poo o a one-uni change in each
o he explana o y a iables, when o he a iables a e held cons an . This app oach no
only complemen s he p obi coe icien s bu also se es as a obus check by p o iding a
mo e in ui i e eel o he di ec ion and magni ude o e ec s.
3. Resul s
3.1. Ene gy Expendi u e Pa e ns
Table 2p esen s an analysis o he ene gy expendi u e pa e ns among households in
he communi y. The da a highligh s he ypes o ene gy sou ces used and hei associa ed
cos s, shedding ligh on he inancial bu den o ene gy access. Table 1p o ides a de ailed
b eakdown o ene gy expendi u e ac oss di e en ene gy ypes, o e ing insigh s in o
he di e si y o ene gy sou ces used and hei associa ed cos s. On a e age, households
spend ZAR 248 (app oxima ely USD 13) mon hly on ene gy, wi h signi ican a ia ion
(s anda d de ia ion o ZAR 160, o USD 8.40), e lec ing di e ing ene gy needs and access.
The highes expendi u e is on lique ied gas, wi h a mean o ZAR 104 (app oxima ely
USD 5.45), indica ing i s impo ance as a p ima y ene gy sou ce o some households. This
Economies 2025,13, 128 8 o 16
is ollowed by pa a in (ZAR 50 o USD 2.62) and wood (ZAR 49 o USD 2.57), sugges ing
ha adi ional and ansi ional uels s ill play a ole in mee ing ene gy needs.
Table 2. Household ene gy expendi u e b eakdown (ZAR and USD).
Va iable Mean (ZAR) Mean (USD) S d. De
Wood Expendi u e 48.50 2.57 21.70
Pa a in Expendi u e 50.47 2.67 49.86
Lique ied Gas Expendi u e 104.15 5.50 107.39
Candles Expendi u e 34.42 1.87 21.57
Gene a o Expendi u e 10.23 0.54 33.84
To al Ene gy Expendi u e 247.75 13.09 160.49
Pe Capi a Ene gy
Expendi u e 92.40 4.88 78.17
No e: Con e sion assumes an exchange a e o 1 USD
≈
18.9 ZAR (p e ailing a e a ime o w i ing his a icle).
Sou ce: Au ho s’ compu a ion, 2025.
The low a e age expendi u e on gene a o s (ZAR 10 o USD 0.52) sugges s ha ew
households ely on his sou ce, which is likely due o i s high ope a ing cos s. On a pe
capi a basis, households spend an a e age o ZAR 92 (app oxima ely USD 4.82) on ene gy,
wi h expendi u es anging om ZAR 10 (USD 0.52) o ZAR 316 (USD 16.54). These indings
highligh he a ying deg ees o ene gy access and a o dabili y wi hin he communi y,
which a e c i ical o unde s anding and add essing ene gy po e y.
3.2. Ene gy Po e y P e alence
Table 3p esen s he esul s indica ing he dis ibu ion o households based on hei
ene gy po e y s a us, p o iding a ounda ional unde s anding o he ex en o ene gy
po e y. This classi ica ion o ms he basis o he subsequen analysis, which applies
a p obi eg ession model o examine he ac o s con ibu ing o ene gy po e y in
he communi y.
Table 3. Ene gy po e y s a is ics.
Ene gy Po e y F equency Pe cen age
Ene gy Poo 20 37.7%
No Ene gy Poo 33 62.3%
To al 53 100%
Sou ce: Au ho s’ compu a ion, 2025.
The da a showed ha 37.7% o households we e expe iencing ene gy po e y. This
included hose who we e se e ely o mode a ely ene gy poo . These households no only
lacked access o mode n ene gy sou ces bu also aced o he challenges like low o uns able
income, la ge household sizes, and a hea y eliance on adi ional uels such as i ewood.
These ac o s made i ha de o hem o mee hei basic ene gy needs.
On he o he hand, 62.3% o households (33 in o al) we e no classi ied as ene gy poo .
This inding e lec s ha hese households me hei basic ene gy needs h ough consis en
access o al e na i e sou ces such as pa a in and LPG. Howe e , his does no mean hey
enjoy ull ene gy secu i y; ins ead, i indica es ha hey ha e managed o cope wi hin he
cons ain s o an o -g id en i onmen , o en h ough ela i ely highe pe capi a income
le els, di e si ied income sou ces, o sus ained suppo om social g an s. Thei abili y
o a o d ene gy al e na i es enables hem o a oid se e e dep i a ion, bu hey emain
exposed o he limi a ions o using less e icien , less sus ainable, and o en mo e expensi e
ene gy sou ces. Thus, while hese households a e no su e ing om he wo s o ms o
Economies 2025,13, 128 15 o 16
Acknowledgmen s: We would like o exp ess ou since e app ecia ion o he RNA Renewable
(Wind-Biogas) o he Depa men o Resea ch and Inno a ion a he Uni e si y o Fo Ha e o
hei academic suppo . We also ex end ou g a i ude o he communi y o Uppe Blinkwa e , he
local municipali y, and go e nmen ins i u ions, including he Depa men o Mine al Resou ces and
Ene gy (DMRE), he Socioeconomic De elopmen uni , and he P o incial Go e nmen o he Eas e n
Cape, o hei in aluable suppo and con ibu ions o his esea ch.
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic s o in e es .
Abb e ia ions
The ollowing abb e ia ions a e used in his manusc ip :
AME A e age ma ginal e ec s
FBE F ee basic elec ici y
LPG Liqui ied pe oleum gas
MEPI Mul idimensional Ene gy Po e y Index
NIDS Na ional Income Dynamics Su ey
SDGs Sus ainable De elopmen Goals
STATA S a is ics and Da a S a is ical So wa e
USD Uni ed S a es Dolla
ZAR Zuid-A ikaanse Rand (Sou h A ican Rand)
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people o p ope y esul ing om any ideas, me hods, ins uc ions o p oduc s e e ed o in he con en .