Exploring the nexus between employment and economic contribution: A study of the travel and tourism industry in the context of COVID-19

Vašaničo á, Pe a; Ba ók, Ka a ína
A icle
Explo ing he nexus be ween employmen and economic
con ibu ion: A s udy o he a el and ou ism indus y in
he con ex o COVID-19
Economies
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
MDPI – Mul idisciplina y Digi al Publishing Ins i u e, Basel
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Vašaničo á, Pe a; Ba ók, Ka a ína (2024) : Explo ing he nexus be ween
employmen and economic con ibu ion: A s udy o he a el and ou ism indus y in he con ex o
COVID-19, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099, MDPI, Basel, Vol. 12, Iss. 6, pp. 1-20,
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Ci a ion: Vašaniˇco á, Pe a, and
Ka a ína Ba ók. 2024. Explo ing he
Nexus be ween Employmen and
Economic Con ibu ion: A S udy o
he T a el and Tou ism Indus y in
he Con ex o COVID-19. Economies
12: 136. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/
economies12060136
Academic Edi o : Angeliki
N. Menegaki
Recei ed: 30 Ap il 2024
Re ised: 23 May 2024
Accep ed: 27 May 2024
Published: 30 May 2024
Copy igh : © 2024 by he au ho s.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land.
This a icle is an open access a icle
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condi ions o he C ea i e Commons
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4.0/).
economies
A icle
Explo ing he Nexus be ween Employmen and Economic
Con ibu ion: A S udy o he T a el and Tou ism Indus y
in he Con ex o COVID-19
Pe a Vašaniˇco á* and Ka a ína Ba ók
Depa men o Finance, Accoun ing and Ma hema ical Me hods, Facul y o Managemen and Business,
Uni e si y o P eso , 080 01 P eso , Slo akia
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : The a el and ou ism indus y plays a c ucial ole in economies a ound he wo ld. The
impac o he
COVID-19
pandemic on he ou ism indus y has been e y p onounced. This pape
aims o s udy he ela ionship be ween he coun y’s T&T indus y Sha e o Employmen (TTEMPL)
and he coun y’s T&T indus y Sha e o G oss Domes ic P oduc (TTGDP). This s udy is speci ic
because we do no ocus on he de elopmen o indica o s o e ime; ins ead, we p opose he models
o 117 coun ies using he quan ile eg ession (QR) while compa ing models in he con ex o
COVID-19
(be ween 2019 and 2021). The esul s o he QR de e mined ha indi idual pe cen iles o
he TTGDP a e mo e a ec ed by he TTEMPL han o he pe cen iles o he TTGDP, which is hen
e lec ed in he changes in eg ession coe icien s. In addi ion, we compa e analyzed indica o s
among coun ies acco ding o egion and income g oup. The s udy e eals ha he ou ism down u n
caused by
COVID-19
has ad e se e ec s on he TTEMPL and he TTGDP. In addi ion, he esul s
show ha he impac o
COVID-19
on he ou ism indus y appea s o be a ied among coun ies,
egions, and income g oups.
Keywo ds: employmen ; GDP; a el and ou ism; indus y; COVID-19
1. In oduc ion
The a el and ou ism indus y se es as a p ima y con ibu o o employmen ,
go e nmen income, and o eign cu ency ea nings o he economy. Tou ism ac i i ies a e
signi ican ly dependen on ex e nal ac o s, ende ing he indus y excep ionally suscep ible
o impac s such as e o is a acks, clima e change, na u al disas e s, economic down u ns,
and pandemics (Du o e al. 2021;Mon e ubio 2022). The
COVID-19
pandemic se ed as a
c ucial ins ance o a c isis capable o o e u ning en i e socioeconomic sys ems wo ldwide
(Jenco a e al. 2021;Yepez and Leimg ube 2024).
Since he beginning o he
COVID-19
c isis, he impac o he pandemic on he ou ism
indus y has been e y p onounced. The ou ism sec o expe ienced one o he i s ,
and p obably mos se e e, shocks o be caused by he in e na ional sp ead o
COVID-19
(Ma iolis e al. 2021). Du ing he heal h c isis and economic down u n caused by
COVID-19
,
he ou ism and hospi ali y sec o s ha e been se e ely a ec ed, p ima ily due o a ious
in e connec ed ac o s such as a el es ic ions, na ionwide lockdowns, business shu -
downs, and he consequen e ec s on li es and li elihoods (Pe e son and DiPie o 2021;
Šenko áe al. 2021). Measu es o con ain he i us in e ms o lockdowns, a el es ic-
ions, bo de closu es, and mobili y cons ain s ha e signi ican ly a ec ed he economic
s uc u e o many coun ies, especially hose which ha e ou is -dependen economies
(Tand ayen-Ragoobu e al. 2022). Coun ies whose ou ism sec o s con ibu e a high sha e
o GDP a e acing conside able economic impac , as he ou ism sec o plays a i al ole in
d i ing economic p og ess (Hensele e al. 2022). The occasions connec ed wi h he c isis
Economies 2024,12, 136. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies12060136 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/economies
Economies 2024,12, 136 2 o 20
led o signi ican declines in bo h e enue and employmen oppo uni ies on a global scale
(Seab a and Bha 2022).
The e o e, i is c ucial o assess he economic in luence o ou ism and i s con ibu ion
o he GDP. Consequen ly, policy b ie s, indus y epo s, and scien i ic a icles equen ly
commence by p esen ing s a is ics ega ding he a el and ou ism sha e o GDP (Figini
and Pa uelli 2022). Mo eo e , in addi ion o i s signi ican ole in enhancing he o e all
wel a e o con empo a y socie ies, employmen s ands as a c ucial phenomenon and a opic
ha canno be o e looked in mac oeconomic sc u iny.
The exis ence o he ela ionship be ween employmen and GDP has been e i ied in
many s udies (Bu gg ae e e al. 2015;Klinge and Webe 2020). The ela ionship be ween
hese indica o s is equen ly in es iga ed using ime se ies da a (Ghosh 2009;Klinge
and Webe 2020;Sca le 2021). Howe e , he connec ion be ween hese speci ic indica o s
wi hin he ield o ou ism is a ely explo ed. This pape inno a i ely con ibu es o he
ex an li e a u e on he nexus o economic g ow h (GDP) and employmen in he ou ism
indus y by employing a quan ile eg ession (QR) model o 117 coun ies while compa ing
models in he con ex o
COVID-19
. Speci ically, his pape aims o s udy he ela ionship
be ween he coun y’s T&T indus y Sha e o Employmen (TTEMPL) and he coun y’s
T&T indus y Sha e o GDP (TTGDP). Only a ew s udies use bo h indica o s (Bulin 2014;
Rado ano e al. 2020); hus, we aim o ill his esea ch gap.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
S udies on he ou ism–g ow h nexus p o ide insigh s in o he exis ence o a long- e m
and/o sho - e m ela ionship be ween ou ism and economic g ow h. They also examine
he adjus men mechanisms ha es o e equilib ium ollowing a dis up ion in ou ism and
analyze how hese ela ionships beha e a e shocks o egime changes (Ahmad e al. 2020).
Ahmad e al. (2020) pe o med a sys ema ic li e a u e e iew o he ou ism–g ow h nexus
and ocused mainly on he causali y nexus. The s udies analyzed u ilized ime se ies da a.
F om an economic pe spec i e, he ocus was on he coun y’s o e all economic indica o s,
e.g., eal GDP (Dogan e al. 2017;Dog u and Bulu 2018), GDP pe capi a (Pa ama i e al.
2017), and indus ial p oduc ion (An onakakis e al. 2015). F om a ou ism pe spec i e,
s udies usually deal wi h in e na ional ou is a i als (An onakakis e al. 2015;Dogan e al.
2017), in e na ional ou ism eceip s (Dog u and Bulu 2018), and in e na ional ou ism
eceip s pe capi a (Tang and Tan 2015;Pa ama i e al. 2017). The s udies analyzed by
Ahmad e al. (2020) ha e no ye included e en s ela ed o he
COVID-19
pandemic. Ou
s udy di e s in h ee espec s. Fi s , i analyzes c oss-sec ional da a ins ead o ime se ies.
Second, we analyze c oss-sec ional da a o 2019 (be o e
COVID-19
) and 2021 (du ing
COVID-19
). Thi d, we conside he economic indica o s di ec ly ela ed o ou ism—
TTGDP and TTEMPL.
I is now clea ha he pandemic has had an unp eceden ed impac on he ou ism
indus y wo ldwide. The discussion abou he impac s o he sp ead o he disease on
na ional economies con inues. As s a ed by Ška e e al. (2021), a hei ime o w i ing,
se e al empi ical s udies had e alua ed he impac o he pandemic ou b eak on he ou ism
indus y. Nowadays, he e a e al eady signi ican ly mo e s udies on his opic. Exis ing
s udies usually deal wi h impac s in a pa icula coun y, e.g., G eece (Ma iolis e al. 2021),
Spain (Mo eno-Luna e al. 2021), Po ugal (de Fá ima B ilhan e and Rocha 2023), Aus alia
(Pham e al. 2021;Munawa e al. 2021;Sola in e al. 2024), E hiopia (Bogale e al. 2020),
Tanzania (Hensele e al. 2022), Mau i ius (Tand ayen-Ragoobu e al. 2022), S i Lanka
(Wick amasinghe and Na anpanawa 2023), Guangdong P o ince, China (Wu e al. 2022),
Macao (Lim and To 2022); o in a pa icula egion, e.g., La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean
(Mulde 2020), Indonesia (Sun e al. 2021;Pham and Nug oho 2022), Ge many and Spain
(Rodousakis and Soklis 2022), Spanish p o inces (Du o e al. 2021), Andalusia (Ca dene e
e al. 2022), Eu ope (Pasieka e al. 2022), Eu opean egions (Cu ale e al. 2023), he Cen al
and Eas e n Eu opean egion (Nagaj and Žu omskai
˙
e 2021), Eu ope, he USA, and China
(Islam and Fa ema 2020), he Chengdu-Chongqing egion in China (Ding e al. 2024).
Economies 2024,12, 136 3 o 20
The ou ism indus y se es as a signi ican gene a o o o eign exchange e enues,
playing a pi o al ole in d i ing economic g ow h h ough a ious channels, as e idenced
by nume ous s udies (Ramlall 2024). Be o e he pandemic, ou ism de elopmen was
u ilized o gene a e signi ican ad an ages o he mac o-le el economy, such as enhancing
o eign eceip s, s imula ing se ice expo s, and playing a c ucial pa in d i ing g ow h
in he domes ic economy h ough ou ism-led ini ia i es (Sun e al. 2022;B ida e al. 2016).
The ou ism indus y cons i u es a i al sou ce o income and employmen (Ka ya Lekshmi
and Mallick 2022;Na a o-Chá ez e al. 2023;Sánchez López 2024). Fu he mo e, ou ism
has a posi i e impac on cu ency ci cula ion, employmen a es, balance o paymen ,
and in es men in he de elopmen o necessa y in as uc u e, all o which acili a e he
execu ion o ou ism- ela ed ac i i ies. Addi ionally, i con ibu es o bols e ing he s a e
budge by inc easing go e nmen expendi u e ia public se ices and go e nmen e enue
h ough he collec ion o bo h di ec and indi ec axes (Tabash e al. 2023).
Tou ism, being elian on labo , o e s nume ous oppo uni ies o bo h skilled and
unskilled wo ke s (Sun e al. 2022). Expanding employmen oppo uni ies is he mos
impo an e ec o economic g ow h (Koži´c and Se e 2022). In ou ism, employmen
demand depends on he numbe o ou is a i als, assuming ha he e is a posi i e ela-
ionship (Walmsley 2017). Tou ism is seen as a signi ican d i e o economic de elopmen
in many de eloping coun ies, pa icula ly o ackling po e y. I s ands ou as a majo
sec o in hese coun ies, as i is capable o os e ing economic g ow h and enhancing
social well-being a a egional le el (Ka ya Lekshmi and Mallick 2022;Mon e ubio 2022).
Mo eo e , gi en ou ism’s in e sec o al connec ions, i can be seen as a po en ial ca alys
o de elopmen in egions conduci e o ou ism ac i i ies (Sánchez López 2024).
Economic ulne abili y and job ins abili y in ou ism ha e led o he ine i able onse
o economic oubles (Sun e al. 2022). Islam (2021) no ed ha employmen was expec ed
o co espond wi h he economy’s ou pu le el, meaning ha as ou pu dec eases due o
he pandemic, he e is a po en ial o dec eased employmen and an inc ease in he unem-
ploymen a e. Sun e al. (2022) e alua e how educed in e na ional ou ism consump ion
a ec s ou ism employmen .
The impac o ou ism on economic ac i i y luc ua es based on he income le els and
ins i u ional cha ac e is ics o he hos coun ies (Tang and Tan 2017;Bo ego-Domínguez
e al. 2022). Un o una ely, ypically, s anda d economic impac analyses p esen indings
h ough agg ega e da a, o en lacking essen ial de ails o iden i y he coun ies ha a e
mos suscep ible o economic ulne abili y.
3. Me hodology
We s udy he ela ionship be ween he coun y’s TTEMPL and he coun y’s TTGDP.
Bo h indica o s exp ess he economic impo ance o ou ism in a speci ic egion o coun y.
The TTEMPL shows how many people a e employed in indus ies ela ed o ou ism. A
highe TTEMPL means ha ou ism p o ides a signi ican numbe o jobs. The TTGDP
shows how much ou ism con ibu es o o e all economic ac i i y. A highe TTGDP
means ha ou ism is a signi ican sou ce o income and has a la ge economic impac .
The link be ween hese wo indica o s a ises because indus ies ha con ibu e o GDP
h ough ou ism also c ea e jobs. Fo example, ho els, es au an s, and a el agencies need
employees o p o ide se ices o ou is s. The e o e, he economic con ibu ion (GDP)
and employmen in ou ism in e ac and o en show simila ends. A high TTGDP o en
co ela es wi h a high TTEMPL, as a g ea e economic con ibu ion usually means mo e job
oppo uni ies a e c ea ed.
Conside ing he aim o he pape , his s udy is speci ic because we do no ocus on he
de elopmen o indica o s o e ime ( ime se ies), bu we p opose models o 117 coun ies
conside ing condi ional quan iles o he dependen a iable. The e o e, we use QR. Fo
compa ison, we p esen esul s ob ained by he o dina y leas squa e (OLS) me hod.
Economies 2024,12, 136 4 o 20
A linea eg ession model de e mines pa ame e s ha minimize he sum o squa ed
e o s. When he esiduals a e no mally dis ibu ed, he OLS es ima o is he bes linea
unbiased es ima e. In e ence is made on he condi ional mean and is used o de e mine
whe he o accep o ejec he null hypo hesis, which s a es ha he e is no ela ionship
be ween he p edic o xand he ou come a iable y. In QR, pa ame e s a e iden i ied
o each quan ile by minimizing he sum o absolu e esiduals. This me hod does no
assume a speci ic dis ibu ion o he e o e ms, gi ing i nonpa ame ic cha ac e is ics
and making i obus o ou lie s. Unlike he linea eg ession model, which has a single se
o pa ame e s, he QR model p oduces a di e en se o pa ame e s o each quan ile. I
allows o in e ences a a ious quan iles, and s a is ical es s a each quan ile can de e mine
whe he o accep o ejec he null hypo hesis (Li 2015).
We also isually compa e linea eg ession lines conce ning egions o income g oups
o analyzed coun ies. To en ich he s udy, his pape also compa es he TTEMPL and he
TTGDP among egions and income g oups and examines di e ences in hese indica o s
be o e and du ing
COVID-19
. The in es iga ion, oge he wi h geog aphic and economic
aspec s, will allow o a be e unde s anding o his complex ela ionship.
3.1. Da a
The da a we e collec ed ia a da abase o he T a el and Tou ism De elopmen Index
2021, which was published by he Wo ld Economic Fo um in May 2022 (Uppink Calde -
wood and Soshkin 2022). Speci ically, he Tou ism Sa elli e Accoun Resea ch o he Wo ld
T a el & Tou ism Council is he sou ce o bo h analyzed indica o s he TTEMPL (% o
o al employmen ) and he TTGDP (% o o al GDP). We compa e da a and esul s o 2019
(be o e
COVID-19
) and 2021 (du ing
COVID-19
). We chose his pe iod because we d ew
he da a om he T a el and Tou ism De elopmen Index 2021 da abase, in which a ailable
da a a e only o hese wo yea s.
Da a a e a ailable o 117 coun ies, which a e u he di ided in o wo ca ego ies,
namely egion (Asia–Paci ic, Eu ope and Eu asia, Middle Eas and No h A ica, Sub-
Saha an A ica, he Ame icas) and income g oup (high, uppe -middle, lowe -middle, and
low-income economies). These ca ego ies a e also de i ed om he da abase known as he
T a el and Tou ism De elopmen Index. The coun ies a e lis ed acco ding o egion and
income g oup in Appendix A(Tables A1 and A2).
Tables 1and 2p esen desc ip i e s a is ics o he TTEMPL acco ding o egion and
income g oup. Figu es 1and 2 isualize boxplo s o he TTEMPL acco ding o egion and
income g oup.
Table 1. Desc ip i e s a is ics o he TTEMPL acco ding o egion.
Asia–Paci ic
(20)
Eu ope
and Eu asia (43)
Middle Eas
and No h A ica (12)
Sub-Saha an
A ica (21)
The
Ame icas (21)
2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021
Mean 4.80 4.22 4.63 4.17 4.96 3.51 3.91 2.31 3.96 2.74
S.D. 3.02 3.17 2.84 2.31 2.14 1.21 3.37 2.00 2.00 1.37
Min 1.12 0.73 0.82 1.05 1.14 1.45 0.93 0.69 1.04 0.93
Q1 3.13 1.74 2.37 2.34 3.90 2.74 1.91 1.27 2.55 1.87
Median 4.57 3.18 3.61 3.76 5.41 3.97 3.09 1.82 3.52 2.62
Q3 5.24 5.27 6.45 6.16 6.80 4.40 4.21 2.66 4.58 3.06
Max 14.63 11.45 12.72 9.29 7.44 4.89 16.42 9.09 9.06 6.39
Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.

Economies 2024,12, 136 5 o 20
Table 2. Desc ip i e s a is ics o he TTEMPL acco ding o income g oup.
High (45) Low (6) Lowe -Middle (33) Uppe -Middle (33)
2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021
Mean 4.96 4.24 3.46 1.88 4.49 2.98 3.87 3.38
S.D. 2.67 2.06 2.28 0.86 3.34 2.48 2.25 2.40
Min 1.12 1.05 1.14 0.83 0.93 0.70 0.82 0.69
Q1 3.25 2.60 1.76 1.33 2.86 1.55 2.25 1.85
Median 4.60 4.07 2.83 1.69 3.55 2.24 3.21 2.74
Q3 5.90 5.62 5.02 2.48 5.07 3.33 5.19 4.14
Max 12.72 9.29 6.80 3.09 16.42 11.45 8.58 10.75
Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
We see (in Figu e 1and Table 1) he highes median o he TTEMPL in he Middle Eas
and No h A ica egion in bo h pe iods (5.41% in 2019 and 3.97% in 2021). The lowes
median o he TTEMPL is in he Sub-Saha an A ica egion (3.09% in 2019 and 1.82% in
2021). Mo eo e , we see some ou lie s. In 2019, hey co espond o Cambodia (14.46%)
and New Zealand (9.30%) in he Asia–Paci ic egion; G eece (12.72%) in he Eu ope and
Eu asia egion; Cape Ve de (16.42%) in he Sub-Saha an A ica egion; U uguay (9.06%) and
Mexico (8.57%) in The Ame icas egion. In 2021, he ou lie s a e he Philippines (11.45%)
and Thailand (10.75%) in he Asia–Paci ic egion, Cape Ve de (9.09%) and Mau i ius
(6.20%) in he Sub-Saha an A ica egion, and U uguay (6.39%) and Mexico (5.45%) in he
Ame icas egion.
Acco ding o he income g oup, we see (in Figu e 2and Table 2) he highes median
o he TTEMPL in he high-income economies (4.60% in 2019 and 4.07% in 2021) and he
lowes median in he low-income economies (2.83% in 2019 and 1.69% in 2021). Conside ing
ou lie s, in 2019, he ou lie s a e G eece (12.72%), Mal a (11.35%), and C oa ia (10.04%) in
he high-income coun ies; Cape Ve de (16.42%) and Cambodia (14.63%) in lowe -middle-
income coun ies. In 2021, he ou lie s a e he Philippines (11.45%), Cape Ve de (9.09%),
Cambodia (8.44%), and Mau i ius (6.20%) in lowe -middle-income coun ies, and Thailand
(10.75%), Geo gia (8.58%), and Malaysia (7.78%) in uppe -middle-income coun ies.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 o 21
Table 1. Desc ip i e s a is ics o he TTEMPL acco ding o egion.
Asia–Paci ic
(20)
Eu ope
and Eu asia (43)
Middle Eas
and No h A ica (12)
Sub-Saha an
A ica (21)
The
Ame icas (21)
2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021
Mean 4.80 4.22 4.63 4.17 4.96 3.51 3.91 2.31 3.96 2.74
S.D. 3.02 3.17 2.84 2.31 2.14 1.21 3.37 2.00 2.00 1.37
Min 1.12 0.73 0.82 1.05 1.14 1.45 0.93 0.69 1.04 0.93
Q1 3.13 1.74 2.37 2.34 3.90 2.74 1.91 1.27 2.55 1.87
Median 4.57 3.18 3.61 3.76 5.41 3.97 3.09 1.82 3.52 2.62
Q3 5.24 5.27 6.45 6.16 6.80 4.40 4.21 2.66 4.58 3.06
Max 14.63 11.45 12.72 9.29 7.44 4.89 16.42 9.09 9.06 6.39
Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
Figu e 1. Boxplo s o he TTEMPL acco ding o egion. Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
Acco ding o he income g oup, we see (in Figu e 2 and Table 2) he highes median
o he TTEMPL in he high-income economies (4.60% in 2019 and 4.07% in 2021) and he
lowes median in he low-income economies (2.83% in 2019 and 1.69% in 2021). Conside -
ing ou lie s, in 2019, he ou lie s a e G eece (12.72%), Mal a (11.35%), and C oa ia (10.04%)
in he high-income coun ies; Cape Ve de (16.42%) and Cambodia (14.63%) in lowe -mid-
dle-income coun ies. In 2021, he ou lie s a e he Philippines (11.45%), Cape Ve de
(9.09%), Cambodia (8.44%), and Mau i ius (6.20%) in lowe -middle-income coun ies, and
Thailand (10.75%), Geo gia (8.58%), and Malaysia (7.78%) in uppe -middle-income coun-
ies.
Table 2. Desc ip i e s a is ics o he TTEMPL acco ding o income g oup.
High (45) Low (6) Lowe -Middle (33) Uppe -Middle (33)
2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021
Mean 4.96 4.24 3.46 1.88 4.49 2.98 3.87 3.38
S.D. 2.67 2.06 2.28 0.86 3.34 2.48 2.25 2.40
Min 1.12 1.05 1.14 0.83 0.93 0.70 0.82 0.69
Q1 3.25 2.60 1.76 1.33 2.86 1.55 2.25 1.85
Median 4.60 4.07 2.83 1.69 3.55 2.24 3.21 2.74
Q3 5.90 5.62 5.02 2.48 5.07 3.33 5.19 4.14
Max 12.72 9.29 6.80 3.09 16.42 11.45 8.58 10.75
Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
Figu e 1. Boxplo s o he TTEMPL acco ding o egion. Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
Economies 2024,12, 136 6 o 20
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 o 21
Figu e 2. Boxplo s o he TTEMPL acco ding o income g oup. Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
Tables 3 and 4 p esen desc ip i e s a is ics o he TTGDP acco ding o egion and
income g oup. Figu es 3 and 4 isualize boxplo s o he TTGDP acco ding o egion and
income g oup.
We see (in Figu e 3 and Table 3) he highes median o he TTGDP in he Middle Eas
and No h A ica egion in bo h pe iods (5.36% in 2019 and 2.13% in 2021). The lowes
median o he TTGDP is in he Sub-Saha an A ica egion (3.35% in 2019 and 1.39% in
2021). Mo eo e , we see some ou lie s. In he Asia–Paci ic egion, hey co espond o Cam-
bodia (14.46%) and he Philippines (12.38%) in 2019 and he Philippines (8.22%) in 2021.
In he Eu ope and Eu asia egion, he ou lie s a e C oa ia (10.93%), Mon eneg o (10.38%)
in 2019, Albania (4.54%), and C oa ia (4.46%) in 2021. In he Sub-Saha an A ica egion,
he highes TTGDP was in Cape Ve de (18.39%) in 2019 and Cape Ve de (5.00%), Mau i ius
(3.96%), and Namibia (3.33%) in 2021. In he Ame icas egion, he ou lie s a e U uguay
(9.12%) in 2019 and U uguay (5.02%), and Mexico (4.51%) in 2021.
Table 3. Desc ip i e s a is ics o he TTGDP acco ding o egion.
Asia–Paci ic
(20)
Eu ope
and Eu asia (43)
Middle Eas
and No h A ica (12)
Sub-Saha an
A ica (21)
The
Ame icas (21)
2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021
Mean 4.90 2.04 4.18 1.90 4.96 1.99 4.35 1.74 4.04 1.92
S.D. 3.49 1.81 2.71 1.01 2.27 0.79 3.66 1.18 1.97 1.09
Min 0.92 0.59 0.96 0.39 1.64 0.68 1.28 0.57 1.34 0.76
Q1 2.82 1.04 2.29 1.20 3.09 1.35 2.34 0.98 2.74 1.09
Median 3.76 1.52 3.44 1.68 5.36 2.13 3.35 1.39 3.71 1.85
Q3 5.78 2.55 5.52 2.45 6.41 2.57 4.73 1.90 5.29 2.26
Max 14.46 8.22 10.93 4.54 8.33 3.21 18.39 5.00 9.13 5.02
Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
Figu e 2. Boxplo s o he TTEMPL acco ding o income g oup. Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
Tables 3and 4p esen desc ip i e s a is ics o he TTGDP acco ding o egion and
income g oup. Figu es 3and 4 isualize boxplo s o he TTGDP acco ding o egion and
income g oup.
Table 3. Desc ip i e s a is ics o he TTGDP acco ding o egion.
Asia–Paci ic
(20)
Eu ope
and Eu asia (43)
Middle Eas
and No h A ica (12)
Sub-Saha an
A ica (21)
The
Ame icas (21)
2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021
Mean 4.90 2.04 4.18 1.90 4.96 1.99 4.35 1.74 4.04 1.92
S.D. 3.49 1.81 2.71 1.01 2.27 0.79 3.66 1.18 1.97 1.09
Min 0.92 0.59 0.96 0.39 1.64 0.68 1.28 0.57 1.34 0.76
Q1 2.82 1.04 2.29 1.20 3.09 1.35 2.34 0.98 2.74 1.09
Median 3.76 1.52 3.44 1.68 5.36 2.13 3.35 1.39 3.71 1.85
Q3 5.78 2.55 5.52 2.45 6.41 2.57 4.73 1.90 5.29 2.26
Max 14.46 8.22 10.93 4.54 8.33 3.21 18.39 5.00 9.13 5.02
Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
Table 4. Desc ip i e s a is ics o he TTGDP acco ding o income g oup.
High (45) Low (6) Lowe -Middle (33) Uppe -Middle (33)
2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021
Mean 4.06 1.96 4.11 1.64 5.04 2.08 4.24 1.71
S.D. 2.32 1.00 2.23 0.92 3.76 1.57 2.62 1.05
Min 0.92 0.39 1.94 0.66 1.28 0.59 0.96 0.57
Q1 2.43 1.29 2.38 1.08 3.02 1.18 2.71 1.00
Median 3.30 1.68 3.42 1.49 3.73 1.63 3.68 1.34
Q3 5.48 2.55 5.94 1.87 5.74 2.52 5.24 1.95
Max 10.93 5.02 7.08 3.26 18.39 8.22 10.38 4.54
Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
We see (in Figu e 3and Table 3) he highes median o he TTGDP in he Middle Eas
and No h A ica egion in bo h pe iods (5.36% in 2019 and 2.13% in 2021). The lowes
median o he TTGDP is in he Sub-Saha an A ica egion (3.35% in 2019 and 1.39% in 2021).
Mo eo e , we see some ou lie s. In he Asia–Paci ic egion, hey co espond o Cambodia
(14.46%) and he Philippines (12.38%) in 2019 and he Philippines (8.22%) in 2021. In he
Eu ope and Eu asia egion, he ou lie s a e C oa ia (10.93%), Mon eneg o (10.38%) in 2019,
Economies 2024,12, 136 7 o 20
Albania (4.54%), and C oa ia (4.46%) in 2021. In he Sub-Saha an A ica egion, he highes
TTGDP was in Cape Ve de (18.39%) in 2019 and Cape Ve de (5.00%), Mau i ius (3.96%),
and Namibia (3.33%) in 2021. In he Ame icas egion, he ou lie s a e U uguay (9.12%) in
2019 and U uguay (5.02%), and Mexico (4.51%) in 2021.
Acco ding o he income g oup, we see (in Figu e 4and Table 4) ha he median
o he TTGDP is a iable in ime. In e ms o ou lie s, in high-income economies, hey
co espond o C oa ia (10.93%) in 2019, U uguay (5.02%), and C oa ia (4.46%) in 2021.
In low-income economies, we see only one ou lie in 2021, in Leso ho (3.26%). In lowe -
middle-income economies, ou lie s co espond o Cape Ve de (18.39%), Cambodia (14.46%),
and he Philippines (12.38%) in 2019, and he Philippines (8.22%), Cape Ve de (5.00%), and
Cambodia (4.62%) in 2021. In uppe -middle-income economies, he ou lie s a e Mon eneg o
(10.38%), Geo gia (10.09%), and Thailand (6.62%) in 2019, and Albania (4.54%), Mexico
(4.54%), and Thailand (3.70%) in 2021.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 o 21
Figu e 3. Boxplo s o he TTGDP acco ding o egion. Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
Acco ding o he income g oup, we see (in Figu e 4 and Table 4) ha he median o
he TTGDP is a iable in ime. In e ms o ou lie s, in high-income economies, hey co e-
spond o C oa ia (10.93%) in 2019, U uguay (5.02%), and C oa ia (4.46%) in 2021. In low-
income economies, we see only one ou lie in 2021, in Leso ho (3.26%). In lowe -middle-
income economies, ou lie s co espond o Cape Ve de (18.39%), Cambodia (14.46%), and
he Philippines (12.38%) in 2019, and he Philippines (8.22%), Cape Ve de (5.00%), and
Cambodia (4.62%) in 2021. In uppe -middle-income economies, he ou lie s a e Mon ene-
g o (10.38%), Geo gia (10.09%), and Thailand (6.62%) in 2019, and Albania (4.54%), Mexico
(4.54%), and Thailand (3.70%) in 2021.
Table 4. Desc ip i e s a is ics o he TTGDP acco ding o income g oup.
High (45) Low (6) Lowe -Middle (33) Uppe -Middle (33)
2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021 2019 2021
Mean 4.06 1.96 4.11 1.64 5.04 2.08 4.24 1.71
S.D. 2.32 1.00 2.23 0.92 3.76 1.57 2.62 1.05
Min 0.92 0.39 1.94 0.66 1.28 0.59 0.96 0.57
Q1 2.43 1.29 2.38 1.08 3.02 1.18 2.71 1.00
Median 3.30 1.68 3.42 1.49 3.73 1.63 3.68 1.34
Q3 5.48 2.55 5.94 1.87 5.74 2.52 5.24 1.95
Max 10.93 5.02 7.08 3.26 18.39 8.22 10.38 4.54
Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
Figu e 3. Boxplo s o he TTGDP acco ding o egion. Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 o 21
Figu e 4. Boxplo s o he TTGDP acco ding o income g oup. Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
3.2. Quan ile Reg esiion
To mee he esea ch aim, we use QR. The desc ip ion is based on ha p o ided by
Kalina and Vidne o á (2019, p. 25), Vašaničo á and Jenčo á (2022, p. 387), and Vašaničo á
and Mišku o á (2023, p. 416). In he s anda d linea eg ession model
ββ β ε
=+ ++ + =
011
... , 1,...,
iipipi
YXXin
, (1)
he eg ession τ-quan ile o
τ
∈(0,1) is de ined as a ( eg ession) line wi h pa ame e s
ob ained as
()
τ
ρ
=
∈
−

1
a gmin
p
nT
ii
i
b
YXb
, (2)
whe e
()
=1,..., T
ii ip
XX X
deno es he i- h obse a ion and
τ
ρ
(de ined in Koenke (2005)
as loss unc ion) is conside ed in he o m
()
()
τ
ρτ
=−<∈
 10,xx x x , (3)
wi h indica o unc ion deno ed by 1. Al e na i ely,
τ
ρ
may be o mula ed as
() ()
τ
τ
ρτ
≥

=−<


i 0,
1 0.
xx
xxix (4)
I we assume ha he quan ile τ o he condi ional dis ibu ion o he dependen a -
iable Yi is a linea unc ion o he ec o o independen a iables (Xi), hen we can w i e
he quan ile condi ional eg ession as (Ko áč 2013):
ττ
βε
⋅
=+ + =
0, 1,...,
iii
YinβX, (5)
A speci ic ea u e o QR is ha he es ima ed coefficien s o he independen a ia-
bles,
τ
β, can be signi ican ly diffe en in a ious quan iles, which may indica e a he e o-
geneous condi ional dis ibu ion o he dependen a iable (Cupák e al. 2016). The ad-
an age o QR is ha i is he mos sui able ool o modeling he e oscedas ic da a (Kalina
and Vidne o á 2019, p. 25; Koenke 2005).
To mee he aim o his pape , he model o he OLS is as ollows:
ββ ε
=+ + =
01 , 1,...,
iii
TTGDP TTEMPL i n , (6)
Figu e 4. Boxplo s o he TTGDP acco ding o income g oup. Sou ce: own p ocessing using R.
3.2. Quan ile Reg esiion
To mee he esea ch aim, we use QR. The desc ip ion is based on ha p o ided by
Kalina and Vidne o á(2019, p. 25), Vašaniˇco áand Jenˇco á(2022, p. 387), and Vašaniˇco á
and Mišku o á(2023, p. 416). In he s anda d linea eg ession model
Yi=β0+β1Xi1+. . . +βpXip +εi,i=1, . . . , n, (1)
Economies 2024,12, 136 8 o 20
he eg ession
τ
-quan ile o
τ∈(
0,1
)
is de ined as a ( eg ession) line wi h pa ame e s
ob ained as
a gmin
b∈Rp
n
∑
i=1
ρτYi−XT
ib, (2)
whe e
Xi=Xi1, . . . , XipT
deno es he i- h obse a ion and
ρτ
(de ined in Koenke (2005)
as loss unc ion) is conside ed in he o m
ρτ(x)=x(τ−1[x<0]),x∈R, (3)
wi h indica o unc ion deno ed by 1. Al e na i ely, ρτmay be o mula ed as
ρτ(x)=τxi x≥0,
(τ−1)xi x<0. (4)
I we assume ha he quan ile
τ
o he condi ional dis ibu ion o he dependen
a iable Y
i
is a linea unc ion o he ec o o independen a iables (X
i
), hen we can w i e
he quan ile condi ional eg ession as (Ko áˇc 2013):
Yi=β0+βτXi·+εiτ,i=1, . . . , n, (5)
A speci ic ea u e o QR is ha he es ima ed coe icien s o he independen a iables,
βτ
, can be signi ican ly di e en in a ious quan iles, which may indica e a he e ogeneous
condi ional dis ibu ion o he dependen a iable (Cupák e al. 2016). The ad an age o QR
is ha i is he mos sui able ool o modeling he e oscedas ic da a (Kalina and Vidne o á
2019, p. 25; Koenke 2005).
To mee he aim o his pape , he model o he OLS is as ollows:
TTGDPi=β0+β1TTEMPLi+εi,i=1, . . . , n(6)
while o QR, we conside he model acco ding o (5) and he sequence o es ima ed
coe icien s is om
τ
= 0.05 o
τ
= 0.95 by 0.05. We es he p esence o he e oscedas ici y by
he B eusch–Pagan es . I he esiduals a e he e oskedas ic in he eg ession model, we
use a pai ed boo s ap o compu e p- alues. To es ima e he eg ession pa ame e s o he
QR model, we use he RS udio and he quan eg package, which was c ea ed as desc ibed
by Koenke (2005) and Koenke e al. (2017). To es whe he he slope coe icien s o he
models a e iden ical, we use ANOVA and he ano a. q package.
4. Resul s
Figu es 5and 6depic sca e plo s ha poin o he ela ionship be ween he TTGDP
and he TTEMPL in 2019 and 2021. Coun ies (do s) a e colo -coded by egion (Figu e 5)
and income g oup (Figu e 6). Ou aim is no o poin ou he coe icien s o he indi idual
eg ession lines, bu only o show ha he eg ession lines (wi h 95% con idence in e als
ma ked by egion o income g oup) di e ac oss g oups. In all cases, he ela ionship is
posi i e. Coun ies wi h low le els o he TTEMPL also ha e low le els o he TTGDP and
ice e sa. We see ha he slopes o he eg ession lines a y ac oss he yea s analyzed.
Table 5p esen s he es ima es o QR and OLS models o 2019 and 2021. The esul s
o he ANOVA es de ec ed ha QR es ima es signi ican ly di e ac oss quan iles. The
eg ession model pa ame e es ima es ob ained using OLS we e s a is ically signi ican ,
and he model explained up o 76.43% (in 2019) and 62.21% (in 2021) o he a iabili y o
he TTGDP. Howe e , we indica ed he p esence o he e oskedas ici y, which we con i med
h ough he B euch–Pagan es (in 2019, BP = 23.670, p= 0.0000; in 2021, BP = 32.508,
p= 0.0000).
The e o e, he use o quan ile eg ession is jus i ied. The esul s o QR show
ha he TTEMPL is s a is ically signi ican a each quan ile le el. Mo eo e , he coe icien s
di e be ween he models o 2019 and 2021. Howe e , in bo h cases, as he quan ile g ows,
he coe icien g ows.
Economies 2024,12, 136 15 o 20
sec o should begin o ebound once he heal h isks and a el impedimen s diminish. To
e icien ly add ess and alle ia e he social epe cussions o
COVID-19
, obus and c edible
e idence is essen ial o in o m policy in e en ions.
In ligh o hese indings, i is e iden ha u he esea ch could p o ide mo e comp e-
hensi e insigh s in o he e ol ing dynamics o he a el and ou ism indus y. Examining
he impac o o he a iables can u he enhance ou unde s anding o he ou ism sec o ’s
dynamics. Expanding he scope o esea ch o include mo e di e se geog aphical and
economic con ex s will also con ibu e o a mo e comp ehensi e unde s anding o ou ism’s
economic impac . I his s udy is epea ed a e some ime when mo e da a a e a ailable,
he s udy will yield mo e de ailed esul s.
While his s udy p o ides aluable insigh s in o he ela ionship be ween he TTEMPL
and he TTGDP, se e al limi a ions should be acknowledged. The s udy elies on da a om
117 coun ies, bu he da a quali y may a y signi ican ly ac oss di e en egions. Some
coun ies may lack comp ehensi e o up- o-da e in o ma ion, which can a ec he accu acy
o he analysis. While he s udy examines he impac o
COVID-19
, i does no deeply
explo e he long- e m e ec s o he pandemic on he ou ism indus y. Fu u e esea ch
could ex end he analysis o co e pos -pandemic eco e y phases. The impac o global
e en s (e.g., in e na ional a el es ic ions) e sus local ac o s (e.g., domes ic ou ism
policies) is no dis inc ly analyzed. A mo e de ailed examina ion o hese in luences could
o e be e policy ecommenda ions. By acknowledging hese limi a ions, u u e esea ch
can add ess hese gaps, leading o a mo e comp ehensi e unde s anding o he dynamics
be ween he TTEMPL and he TTGDP.
Au ho Con ibu ions: Concep ualiza ion, P.V. and K.B.; me hodology, P.V.; so wa e, P.V.; ali-
da ion, P.V.; o mal analysis, P.V. and K.B.; in es iga ion, P.V.; esou ces, P.V.; da a cu a ion, P.V.;
w i ing—o iginal d a p epa a ion, P.V.; w i ing— e iew and edi ing, P.V. and K.B.; isualiza ion,
P.V.; supe ision, P.V.; p ojec adminis a ion, P.V.; unding acquisi ion, K.B. and P.V. All au ho s ha e
ead and ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: This esea ch was unded by he Cul u al and Educa ional G an Agency o he Minis y o
Educa ion, Science, Resea ch, and Spo o he Slo ak Republic, g an No. 001PU-4/2022–KEGA.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : Fo eques s conce ning he da a, please con ac he co espond-
ing au ho .
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic s o in e es .
Appendix A
Table A1. Coun ies acco ding o egion.
Asia–Paci ic Eu ope and Eu asia Middle Eas and
No h A ica Sub-Saha an A ica The Ame icas
AUS LKA ALB ESP ISL NLD ARE AGO MWI ARG MEX
BGD MNG ARM EST ITA POL BHR BEN NAM BOL NIC
HKG MYS AUT FIN KAZ PRT EGY BWA NGA BRA PAN
CHN NPL AZE FRA KGZ ROU ISR CIV RWA CAN PER
IDN NZL BEL GBR LTU SRB JOR CMR SEN COL PRY
IND PAK BGR GEO LUX SVK KWT CPV SLE CRI SLV
JPN PHL BIH GRC LVA SVN LBN GHA TCD DOM TTO
KHM SGP CYP HRV MDA SWE MAR KEN TZA ECU URY
KOR THA CZE HUN MKD TJK QAT LSO ZAF GTM USA
LAO VNM DEU CHE MLT TUR SAU MLI ZMB HND VEN
DNK IRL MNE TUN MUS CHL
YEM
Sou ce: own p ocessing. No e: coun ies’ codes a e acco ding o Alpha-3.

Economies 2024,12, 136 16 o 20
Table A2. Coun ies acco ding o income g oup.
High Low Lowe -Middle Uppe -Middle
ARE FIN ISR POL GHA BEN KGZ NPL AGO DOM MLI
AUS FRA ITA PRT LSO BGD KHM PAK ALB ECU MNE
AUT GBR JPN QAT RWA BOL LAO PHL ARG GEO MYS
BEL GRC KOR SAU SEN BWA LKA SLV ARM GTM PAN
BHR HKG KWT SGP SLE CIV MAR TCD AZE CHN PER
CAN HRV LTU SVK YEM CPV MNG TJK BGR JOR PRY
CYP HUN LUX SVN EGY MUS TUN BIH KAZ ROU
CZE CHE LVA SWE HND MWI TZA BRA LBN SRB
DEU CHL MLT TTO IDN NAM VEN CMR MDA THA
DNK IRL NLD URY IND NGA VNM COL MEX TUR
ESP ISL NZL USA KEN NIC ZMB CRI MKD ZAF
EST
Sou ce: own p ocessing. No e: coun ies’ codes a e acco ding o Alpha-3.
Appendix B
Table A3. Di e ences in he TTEMPL and he TTGDP (2021–2019).
Coun y
∆
TTEMPL
∆
TTGDP Coun y
∆
TTEMPL
∆
TTGDP Coun y
∆
TTEMPL
∆
TTGDP Coun y
∆
TTEMPL
∆
TTGDP
CPV −7.34 −13.40 MWI −1.34 −2.21 LTU −0.80 −0.68 PRY −0.11 −0.58
GRC −6.35 −5.43 SWE −1.32 −0.89 BRA −0.75 −1.28 ZMB −0.10 −1.49
KHM −6.18 −9.85 ARG −1.30 −1.37 CAN −0.72 −1.03 SVK −0.07 −1.31
TUN −4.48 −4.84 AZE −1.25 −2.68 IDN −0.70 −0.97 DNK −0.05 −0.69
MAR −3.72 −5.55 PAK −1.24 −1.62 ECU −0.68 −1.82 FIN −0.02 −0.75
LSO −3.71 −3.82 TTO −1.23 −1.52 CHN −0.65 −1.71 ITA 0.00 −2.63
LKA −3.49 −4.24 ALB −1.22 −4.26 ESP −0.64 −3.21 GEO 0.00 −6.63
MEX −3.12 −3.54 MUS −1.22 −3.63 COL −0.62 −1.15 KOR 0.03 −0.26
NZL −3.11 −2.97 QAT −1.17 −0.64 EGY −0.62 −3.68 BEL 0.05 −1.01
MLT −2.94 −4.03 NIC −1.17 −3.02 GHA −0.62 −1.35 MKD 0.11 −0.76
JOR −2.86 −3.84 HRV −1.17 −6.47 VEN −0.60 −1.19 BGR 0.12 −1.84
RWA −2.78 −4.52 BGD −1.16 −1.59 SRB −0.49 −1.47 LVA 0.15 −1.85
URY −2.67 −4.11 GTM −1.13 −1.85 AGO −0.48 −0.78 SAU 0.15 −1.47
AUT −2.62 −4.01 ROU −1.10 −0.77 BIH −0.47 −1.50 MNE 0.17 −7.91
TZA −2.61 −2.70 HUN −1.10 −1.51 AUS −0.44 −1.46 SGP 0.27 −2.43
CYP −2.51 −5.73 BHR −1.07 −3.45 CHL −0.43 −1.29 YEM 0.30 −1.13
LBN −2.33 −5.86 ZAF −1.05 −1.47 DEU −0.42 −1.53 IRL 0.31 −1.55
HND −2.13 −3.25 BOL −1.01 −1.65 FRA −0.40 −1.92 ARM 0.42 −2.65
CRI −2.13 −3.12 HKG −1.01 −3.84 MLI −0.35 −2.50 TUR 0.62 −2.57
PAN −2.03 −3.92 SLV −1.01 −2.58 ISR −0.33 −0.96 JPN 0.76 −0.85
BWA −1.97 −3.34 EST −1.01 −1.61 KWT −0.32 −1.25 SVN 0.82 −0.76
CIV −1.92 −2.85 USA −0.99 −1.01 BEN −0.30 −1.25 KGZ 1.91 0.55
NAM −1.87 0.11 KAZ −0.97 −1.08 LUX −0.28 −0.79 MDA 2.44 0.18
SEN −1.82 −2.71 TJK −0.97 −1.71 CHE −0.26 −1.01 MYS 3.14 −1.87
IND −1.74 −1.97 ARE −0.94 −3.05 GBR −0.25 −2.39 NLD 3.71 0.70
LAO −1.56 −2.74 SLE −0.88 −1.28 TCD −0.23 −0.63 THA 4.29 −5.91
MNG −1.54 −2.69 PER −0.87 −2.04 VNM −0.22 −3.60 PHL 4.38 −4.16
KEN −1.43 −2.11 NGA −0.87 −1.17 CZE −0.21 −0.99
ISL −1.42 −5.83 CMR −0.85 −1.76 POL −0.15 −1.06
NPL −1.34 −2.44 DOM −0.83 −3.15 PRT −0.13 −3.88
Sou ce: own p ocessing. No e: a highe d op is indica ed by a deepe ed colo .
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