Spenge , Ch is oph e al.
A icle — Published Ve sion
S ong e sus weak sus ainable de elopmen in he blue
economy: a s udy o 15 EU coas al coun ies
npj Ocean Sus ainabili y
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy – Leibniz Cen e o Resea ch on Global Economic Challenges
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Spenge , Ch is oph e al. (2024) : S ong e sus weak sus ainable de elopmen
in he blue economy: a s udy o 15 EU coas al coun ies, npj Ocean Sus ainabili y, ISSN 2731-426X,
Sp inge Na u e, Be lin, Vol. 3, pp. 1-10,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s44183-024-00082-6
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/307004
S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen:
Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen
Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den.
Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle
Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich
machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen.
So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen
(insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en,
gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do
genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e.
Te ms o use:
Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal
and schola ly pu poses.
You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o
exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he
in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public.
I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en
Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise
u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence.
h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
npj | ocean sus ainabili y A icle
h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s44183-024-00082-6
S ong e sus weak sus ainable
de elopmen in he blue economy: a s udy
o 15 EU coas al coun ies
Check o upda es
Ch is oph Spenge 1,4, Ignacio Saldi ia Gonza i1,2,4 , Lenna d K öge 1, Ch is ophe Robin Flee 1,3,
Rudi Voss3&Wil iedRickels
1
One o he Eu opean Union’s en i onmen al and sus ainable de elopmen objec i es is o achie e
sus ainable ma ine de elopmen , combining he objec i es o ocean heal h and he blue economy.
De eloping, implemen ing, and moni o ing ma ine policies equi es in o ma ion on he s a us and
e olu ion o ma ine de elopmen a he coun y le el, including he ex en o which s ong sus ainable
de elopmen (i.e., balanced de elopmen ac oss socio-economic and en i onmen al dimensions) is
being achie ed. He e, we p o ide a comp ehensi e assessmen o p og ess owa ds ma ine
de elopmen o 15 Eu opean Union coas al coun ies in he Bal ic, No h, and A lan ic Seas, co e ing
he pe iod 2012–2022 and using in o ma ion om Sus ainable De elopmen Goal 14 o de i e ou
indica o amewo k. We show ha he EU is achie ing sus ainable ma ine de elopmen , bu no
comp ehensi elyin all coun ies. Whilese en coun ies achie ed sus ainable de elopmen unde bo h
weak and s ong sus ainabili y, se en coun ies de eloped only unde weak sus ainabili y, and one
coun y made no p og ess unde ei he concep .
The domes ic and in e na ional policy o he Eu opean Union (EU) includes
he impo ance o heal hy ocean and ma ine ecosys ems o economic
de elopmen and human well-being. EU’soceanpolicyisguidedby he
Sus ainable De elopmen Goal (SDG) 14, supplemen ed by a ious ini ia-
i es o os e sus ainable blue g ow h1,2. Howe e , e ficien policy design
equi es in o ma ion abou he s a us and de elopmen a he coun y le el,
including in o ma ion on how a s ong sus ainable de elopmen (i.e.,
balanced de elopmen ac oss socio-economic and ecological dimensions) is
achie ed. He e, we p o ide a comp ehensi e assessmen o sus ainable
ma ine de elopmen ocusing on blue g ow h o 15 EU coas al coun ies in
he Bal ic Sea, No h Sea, and A lan ic Ocean, co e ing he pe iod om 2012
o 2022 (Fig. 1). We dis inguish be ween he concep s o weak and s ong
sus ainable de elopmen o iden i y how a balanced p og ess is achie ed.
Since comp ehensi e in o ma ion ega ding ma ine na u al capi al
s ocks and associa ed shadow alues is missing, we use indica o in o ma-
ion om SDG14 o app oxima e inclusi e ma ine weal h. Howe e , he
wide ange o a ge s and indica o s in he SDG amewo k p e en s
s aigh o wa d iden ifica ion and in eg a ed assessmen o ade-o s. This
cons ain is especially ele an as di e en dimensions o ocean heal h pose
di e en managemen challenges depending on he cha ac e is ics o he
esou ce3. Acco dingly, his cons ain can lead o he a bi a y applica ion
o managemen measu es ha ocus on indica o s ha a e ei he less c i ical
o easie o achie e, in pa icula a he na ional o egional le el. Acco d-
ingly, he nes ed agg ega ion unde he concep o s ong sus ainabili y
p o ides in o ma ion on he balance o blue g ow h.
The UN SDG indica o da abase4is limi ed in assessing p og ess ac oss
EU coun ies due o i s poo co e age ac oss coun ies and o e ime: Fo
many a ge s, indica o da a a e a ailable o a subse o none o he EU
coas al coun ies. Eu os a 1publishes an o ficial moni o ing epo based on
a se o EU SDG indica o s5. Al hough he epo ies o align he EU
indica o se wi h he o ficial UN se , i ails o include all ele an in o -
ma ion. The six EU indica o s co e only ou ou o en a ge s unde SDG
14 and pa ly p esen egionally agg ega ed alues ha p e en an assess-
men o p og ess a he coun y le el. The Sus ainable De elopmen Repo
by Sachs e al.6p o ides limi ed insigh s on p og ess owa ds SDG 14, since
i includes only six indica o s co e ing h ee ou o en a ge s. Fu he mo e,
da a a ailabili y o ou o hese six indica o s s ops in 2019 o ea lie 7.An
addi ional assessmen o SDG 14 has been unde aken by he OECD8.As
indica o da a a e la gely aken om he UN global indica o amewo k
(wi h wo indica o s added om he OECD da abase), he limi a ions o he
SDG indica o da abase o assess egional de elopmen apply o he OECD
assessmen as well. Only hal o he SDG 14 a ge s can be moni o ed, and a
ime se ies is a ailable only o wo a ge s. Fu he s udies ocusing on EU
coun ies base hei analysis on he Eu os a indica o se 9–12.Incon as
13,
1Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy, Kiel, Ge many. 2Wageningen Uni e si y & Resea ch, Wageningen, Ne he lands. 3Cen e o Ocean and Socie y, Kiel
Uni e si y, Kiel, Ge many.
4
These au ho s con ibu ed equally: Ch is oph Spenge , Ignacio Saldi ia Gonza i. e-mail: ignacio.saldi iagonza i@wu .nl
npj Ocean Sus ainabili y | (2024) 3:48 1
1234567890():,;
1234567890():,;
cons uc ed hei indica o s o conduc a global assessmen o SDG 14,
howe e , hei s udy is limi ed o only ou ou o en a ge s. Ano he
assessmen o SDG 14 does no conside he EU coun ies14.
EU coun y in o ma ion is p o ided as pa o he Ocean Heal h
Index (OHI)15 and he Bal ic Heal h Index (BHI)16 assessmen . The OHI
and BHI a e ools o assessing he heal h and sus ainabili y o ma ine
ecosys ems and can he e o e be compa ed o ou assessmen in e ms o
hei objec i es, componen s, and con ibu ion o assessing p og ess
owa d sus ainable ocean heal h. The BHI ailo s he OHI app oach o
he specific needs o en i onmen al managemen in he Bal ic Sea and
assesses nine o he 10 objec i es o iginally se ou in he OHI. Howe e ,
hese s udies p o ide li le in o ma ion ega ding balanced de elop-
men , i.e. in o ma ion on how a economic p og ess in he ma i ime
sec o comes a he cos o de e io a ion o ma ine ecosys ems, o
ice e sa.
In his pape , we de elop new indica o s o imp o ed co e age o
ma ine sus ainable de elopmen o EU coas al s a es o he Bal ic Sea, No h
Sea, and he A lan ic Ocean, looking in pa icula a fishe ies and ocean
go e nance da a p o ided by he In e na ional Council o he Explo a ion
o heSea(ICES).Weco e 75fish s ocks in ou assessmen , including
in o ma ion on s ocks, fishing p essu e, compliance wi h fishing a ge s, and
he deg ee o which scien ificad iceis espec ed.Wecombine henewly
de eloped indica o s wi h exis ing ones and apply social choice heo y o
dis inguish be ween he concep s o weak and s ong sus ainabili y. The
commonly used concep o weak sus ainabili y pos ula es he ull
subs i u abili y o na u al capi al. We add he pe spec i e o s ong sus-
ainabili y, ha is, assuming ha he economic and en i onmen al capi al
a e complemen a y, bu no in e changeable. By con as ing he di e en
coun ies’pe o mances unde hese wo concep s, we p o ide an upda ed
pe spec i e on he balance o sus ainable ma ine de elopmen ac oss
coun ies. We compa e ou findings wi h esul s om he Global Ocean
Heal h Index (OHI) and he Bal ic Heal h Index (BHI).
Resul s
SDG 14 assessmen amewo k o EU coas al s a es
SDG 14 is composed o en a ge s, 14.1 o 14.7 and 14.a, 14.b, and 14.c. The
In e -Agency and Expe G oup on SDG Indica o s (IAEG-SDGs) decided
on wo sub-indica o s o a ge 14.1 and only one indica o o he o he
nine a ge s. Based on a ailable da a, o each a ge excep 14.c, we selec
and de elop a leas wo indica o s o measu e p og ess agains i . In
addi ion, a ge s 14.1 and 14.7 a e composed o sub-indica o s ha a e
agg ega ed a he indica o le el be o e agg ega ing a he a ge and goal
le els. To assess p og ess agains SDG 14, we ga he da a o a leas h ee
poin s in ime: be o e he SDGs we e o mula ed (2012), a e hei imple-
men a ion (2016), and he mos ecen da a (2018–2022). Da a used o he
indica o s come om o ficial sou ces, including CMEMS, EEA, Eu os a , GI
TOC, ICES, IMO, IUCN, OECD, and OHI. Following he p inciples o
findabili y, accessibili y, in e ope abili y, and eusabili y (FAIR), all da a
ga he ing, analysis, and ou pu a e a ailable h ough an Open Science
F amewo k p ojec (see “Da a A ailabili y”). In Table 1,wep o idea
Fig. 1 | Mixed sus ainable ma ine de elopmen in he Eu opean Union. The classifica ion eflec s he de elopmen om 2012 o he mos ecen yea in he assessmen
unde wo concep s o sus ainabili y. See also Fig. 3b. Basemap Sou ce: Es i58.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s44183-024-00082-6 A icle
npj Ocean Sus ainabili y | (2024) 3:48 2
summa y o he UNSD SDG 14 a ge s, he co esponding indica o s
selec ed by us o his assessmen , hei ype (p essu e, s a e, o esponse),
hei no malisa ion me hod (see “Me hods”sec ion), and hei sou ce. An
exhaus i e explana ion o he selec ion o each a iable is p o ided in he
supplemen a y in o ma ion.
S a us and de elopmen a he indica o le el
In Fig. 2a, we show he selec ed and ans o med indica o alues,
g ouped by hei assignmen o he SDG 14 a ge s, displaying he
mos ecen da a. The figu e shows ha coun ies pe o m di e en ly
on he a ious dimensions o sus ainable de elopmen co e ed by
SDG 14. Acco ding o ou indica o alues, mos coun ies pe o m
ela i ely well in Ta ge 14.2 ‘Ecosys ems’,Ta ge 14.4‘Sus ainable
Fishing’,Ta ge 14.b‘Small-scale fishing’, and Ta ge 14.c ‘Ma ine
ag eemen s’, whe eas he o e all pe o mance in Ta ge 14.1 ‘Pollu-
ion’and Ta ge 14.7 ‘Economics’is a he poo . The figu e also
shows ha while some a ge s display a a he homogeneous pe -
o mance ac oss indica o s, e.g., Ta ge 14.4 ‘Sus ainable Fishing’o
Ta ge 14.b ‘Small-scale fishing’, he pe o mance o o he a ge s is
he e ogeneous ac oss indica o s, e.g., Ta ge 14.1 ‘Pollu ion’o
Ta ge 14.6 ‘Incen i es’. Se e al indica o s p esen a la ge sp ead, e.g.
Indica o 2. ‘Eu ophica ion’(assigned o Ta ge 14.1, ‘Pollu ion’),
Indica o 10. ‘Na u a 2000’(assigned o Ta ge 14.5 ‘P o ec ion’), o
Indica o 18. ‘Ma ine Resea ch’(assigned o Ta ge 14.a ‘Science’).
Mo eo e , some indica o s con ain la ge ou lie s, such as Indica o
12. ‘Subsidies’. Fo his indica o , La ia sco ed 100 since i did no
g an any high- isk subsidy o he fishing indus y in 2019, while all
o he coun ies ga e a leas some high- isk subsidy o he indus y.
Table 1 | Desc ip ion o UNSC a ge s, selec ed indica o s, and ans o ma ion
UNSC a ge and indica o Selec ed Indica o Type, Uni , Sou ce No malisa ion
Ta ge 14.1 Pollu ion
(a) Index o coas al eu ophica ion; and (b) plas ic deb is densi y
1. G oss Nu ien Balance P, kg/ha, Eu os a D T (endogenous)
2. Wa e s a ec ed by
eu ophica ion
S, Pe cen age o EEZ, Eu os a D T (endogenous)
3a. Plas ic Was e P, kg/hab, Eu os a D T (endogenous)
3b. Plas ic Was e
Reco e y Ra e
P, Pe cen age, Eu os a D T (endogenous)
Ta ge 14.2 Ecosys em-Based Managemen
Numbe o coun ies using ecosys em-based app oaches o
managing ma ine a eas
4. MSP Implemen a ion R, Le el o implemen a ion, Eu opean
MSP Pla o m
No ans o ma ion
5. Habi a (OHI) S, Sco e, OHI No ans o ma ion
Ta ge 14.3 Acidifica ion
A e age ma ine acidi y (pH) measu ed a ag eed sui e o
ep esen a i e sampling s a ions
6. CO2 pe capi a P, onnes/hab, Eu os a D T (endogenous)
7. Sea su ace pH S, None, CMEMS D T (p e-indus ial
pH le el)
Ta ge 14.4 Sus ainable Fishing
P opo ion o fish s ocks wi hin biologically sus ainable le els
8. F
MSY
/F P, F
MSY
/F, ICES Ca ch-weigh ed
a e age
9. B/B
MSY
P, B/B
MSY
, ICES Ca ch-weigh ed
a e age
Ta ge 14.5 P o ec ion
Co e age o p o ec ed a eas in ela ion o ma ine a eas
10. Ma ine P o ec ed A eas R, Pe cen age o EEZ, EEA D T (30%)
11. Key Biodi e si y A eas R, Pe cen age, UN No ans o ma ion
Ta ge 14.6 Incen i es
Deg ee o implemen a ion o in e na ional ins umen s aiming o
comba illegal, un epo ed and un egula ed fishing
12. Fishe ies Subsidies P, Pe cen age o High D T (endogenous)
13. IUU Index P, Sco e, IUU Index Gene alized mean, σ
=10
14. TAC/Ca ch P, TAC/Ca ch, ICES Ca ch-weigh ed
a e age
Ta ge 14.7 Economics
Sus ainable fishe ies as a p opo ion o GDP in small island de eloping
S a es, leas de eloped coun ies and all coun ies
15a. Li elihoods (Quan i y) R, FTE Employees/Coas al
popula ion, Eu os a /BEO
D T (endogenous)
15b. Li elhoods (Quali y) R, GVA/Hou s Wo ked, Eu os a /BEO D T (endogenous)
16. Economies R, GVA annual g ow h a e o ma ine
sec o s, Eu os a /BEO
D T (1.5% annual
g ow h)
17. Tou ism R, GVA/nigh s spen , Eu os a /BEO D T (endogenous)
Ta ge 14.a Science
P opo ion o o al esea ch budge alloca ed o esea ch in he field o
ma ine echnology
18. Ma ine Resea ch R, % ocean science expendi u e as a
sha e o o al esea ch, UN
D T (endogenous)
19. SAD/TAC R, SAD/TAC, ICES Ca ch-weigh ed
a e age
Ta ge 14.b Small Scale Fishing
Deg ee o applica ion o a legal/ egula o y/policy/ins i u ional
amewo k which ecognizes and p o ec s access igh s o small-
scale fishe ies
20. AFO (OHI) S, Sco e, OHI No ans o ma ion
21. Fish Species
Th ea ened
S, % w. . . o al species, IUCN No ans o ma ion
Ta ge 14.c Ma ine Ag eemen s
Numbe o coun ies making p og ess in a i ying, accep ing and
implemen ing h ough legal, policy and ins i u ional amewo ks,
ocean- ela ed ins umen s ha implemen in e na ional law, as
eflec ed in he UNCLOS, o he conse a ion and sus ainable use o
he oceans and hei esou ces
22. IMO Pa icipa ion Ra e R, Numbe o p o ocols, IMO D T (max. numbe
p o ocols)
AFO a isanal fishing oppo uni ies, Bbiomass, D T dis ance- o- a ge , EEZ exclusi e economic zone, Ffishing mo ali y, FTE ull- ime equi alen , GVA g oss alue added, IUU illegal, un epo ed and
un egula ed,IMO In e na ionalMa i imeO ganiza ion,MSY maximumsus ainableyield, MSP ma i ime spa ial planning, OHI OceanHeal hIndex,Pp essu e,R esponse,Ss a e, SAD scien ific ad ice, TAC
To al Allowable Ca ch.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s44183-024-00082-6 A icle
npj Ocean Sus ainabili y | (2024) 3:48 3
Figu e 2b shows he EEZ-weigh ed a e age change in indica o s om
2012 o he mos ecen assessmen yea . Only 13 o he 22 indica o s show a
posi i e de elopmen . The la ges imp o emen is in Indica o 4. ‘Spa ial
Planning’, as by now almos all coun ies ha e implemen ed hei ma ine
spa ial plan, which was also he a ge o he EU ma ine spa ial planning
di ec i e17. In con as , Indica o 16. ‘Economies’, which measu es he yea -
on-yea g ow h o es ablished blue economy sec o s, p esen s he la ges
decline. Since da a o his indica o we e only a ailable un il 2020, his low
sco e could be influenced by he COVID-19-induced decline in economic
de elopmen . Rema kably, g oss alue added o coas al ou ism dec eased
by 44% be ween 2019 and 2020. Howe e , some ecologically impo an
indica o s declined as well (e.g. Indica o 2. ‘Eu ophica ion’o Indica o 11.
‘Habi a ’). In e es ingly, fishe y- ela ed indica o s show a mixed pic u e.
While Indica o 8. ‘Fishing mo ali y’(F
MSY
/F) imp o ed, Indica o 9.
‘Biomass’(B/B
MSY
) sligh ly dec eased. One eason o his de elopmen
migh be a delayed impac o fishing mo ali y on biomass le els. No ably,
he imp o emen o he fishing mo ali y indica o is a mo e ecen phe-
nomenon, as he EEZ-weigh ed a e age in his indica o e en sligh ly
declined om 2012 o 2016 (by 0.5 poin s). Thus, i is likely ha he o e all
nega i e de elopmen o biomass is s ill caused by hese p e iously highe
le els o fishing mo ali y. Fu he mo e, while adhe ence o scien ificad ice
has wo sened (Indica o 19. SAD/TAC), ac ual ca ches comply mo e wi h
he fishing quo a in he mos ecen yea han in 2012 (Indica o 14.
TAC/Ca ch).
S ong e sus weak sus ainabili y a he agg ega ed le el
Figu e 3a shows he coun y ankings a he goal le el unde he wo con-
cep s o sus ainabili y o he mos ecen assessmen yea . In pa icula , i
compa es he anking unde s ong sus ainabili y calcula ed by a Mon e
Ca lo simula ion (limi ed subs i u ion possibili ies, σ~U(0, 1)) wi h
ankings unde weak sus ainabili y, calcula ed as he a i hme ic mean o he
a ge sco es (unlimi ed subs i u ion possibili ies, σ→∞). Coun ies abo e
he 45° line pe o m be e unde weak sus ainabili y, as hey can
compensa e o poo pe o mance in one a ge wi h good pe o mance in
o he s. This implies ha hei le el o achie emen o SDG 14 is less
balanced. Fo example, F ance anks 3 d unde weak sus ainabili y bu only
11 h unde s ong sus ainabili y. This eflec s an imbalance in i s achie e-
men o SDG 14, as he coun y has he second-la ges sp ead be ween he
lowes and highes a ge sco es o all he coun ies assessed. In con as ,
Ge many is anked 5 h unde weak sus ainabili y, while i is anked 3 d
unde s ong sus ainabili y. This is he esul o a mo e e en dis ibu ion o
a ge sco es. Compa ed o o he coun ies, Ge many does no ha e he
highes o lowes sco e o any a ge and has he hi d lowes sp ead
be ween he lowes and highes a ge sco e. Unde bo h concep s o sus-
ainable de elopmen , Es onia anks fi s . The las place is occupied by
Finland and Sweden unde he concep o weak and s ong sus ainabili y,
espec i ely. To see how he ankings change when one o he a ge s is
emo ed om he calcula ion, see Supplemen a y Fig. 3. The in o ma ion in
he figu e allows use s o de i e anking in o ma ion in case hey conside a
a ge (and he unde lying indica o s) no sui able o measu ing sus ainable
de elopmen . On he o he hand, he figu e indica es o each coun y which
a ge s i should ocus on o imp o e sus ainable ma ine de elopmen .
Figu e 3b shows he ac ual change in sco es a he SDG le el be ween
2012 and he mos ecen assessmen yea o bo h sus ainabili y concep s.
Quad an I (III) con ains de elopmen s whe e sus ainable de elopmen is
(no ) achie ed acco ding o bo h concep s. Quad an II con ains hose
coun ies ha achie e sus ainable de elopmen only unde s ong sus ain-
abili y, implying a de elopmen owa ds mo e balanced, bu o e all lowe ,
a ge sco es. The opposi e is ue o Quad an IV. He e, he sum o sco es
ac oss a ge s has inc eased, bu hei dis ibu ion has become less balanced.
Se en coun ies imp o e unde bo h sus ainabili y concep s, wi h
Es onia, Li huania, and Poland leading he way. Du ing he assessmen
pe iod, Es onia imp o ed on se en o he en a ge s. In addi ion, Es onia
wo sened i s pe o mance on a ge s ha i was al eady pe o ming well on
(e.g., Ta ge 14.4 ‘Sus ainable fishe ies’) and made la ge imp o emen s on
a ge s whe e i was pe o ming poo ly. Fo example, on he acidifica ion
Fig. 2 | Sco es and EEZ-weigh ed a e age change o he 22 indica o s. a The sco e
alueso EUcoas alcoun iesa heindica o le el o hemos ecen yea o he
assessmen pe iod 2012–2022. A box plo and he weigh ed a e age alues o he
exclusi e economic zone (EEZ) a e shown o each indica o . Coun y
abb e ia ions1a e shown o minimum and maximum alues, whe e an as e isk *
indica es ha mo e han ou coun ies sha e he same alue. bThe EEZ-
weigh ed a e age change o indica o sco es om 2012 o he mos ecen yea
(IEEZA g ;Mos Recen IEEZA g ;2012). BE Belgica, DE Ge many, DK Denma k, EE
Es onia, ES Spain, FI Finland, FR F ance,IEI eland,LTLi huania,LVLa ia,NL
Ne he lands, PL Poland, PT Po ugal, SE Sweden, UK Uni ed Kingdom.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s44183-024-00082-6 A icle
npj Ocean Sus ainabili y | (2024) 3:48 4
a ge , Es onia imp o ed i s anking on Indica o 6. ‘CO
2
Emissions’ om
15 o 11. Se en coun ies imp o ed hei sco es only unde he concep o
weak sus ainabili y, bu no unde he concep o s ong sus ainabili y, i.e.,
hei agg ega ed sco es inc eased bu hei pe o mance became less
balanced. F ance and Sweden a e no able, which inc eased hei pe o -
mance unde weak sus ainabili y, bu expe ienced a significan d op when
assuming s ong sus ainabili y. O e all, he Ne he lands is he wo s pe -
o me , being he only coun y ha ails o achie e sus ainable de elopmen
unde bo hconcep so sus ainabili y.
A compa ison o ou app oach o OHI alues (Fig. 4)confi ms he
obus ness o ou findings as i allows o compa ing ac oss measu es subjec
o di e en assump ions and in e p e a ions. Bo h assessmen s gene ally
p o ide a simila pic u e o he ma ine de elopmen o EU coun ies,
al hough looking a hei di e ences allows o mo e nuanced insigh . OHI
gene ally sco es highe o equal o ou SDG14 sco e (excep Belgium). In he
example o Sweden, Finland, and Spain, hese coun ies exhibi significan ly
highe sco es on he OHI as compa ed o hei sco es in ou SDG14 indi-
ca o . A possible eason could be ha hese coun ies ha e an abo e-a e age
sco e in he OHI amewo k o he goal o p o ec ing ‘Iconic species’.This
goal is, howe e , no assessed unde SDG14 as he UN SDG 14 does no
dis inguish be weeniconic and non-iconic species. The e o e, we also do no
ank species acco ding o hei cul u al alue. The la ge a iabili y obse ed
in ou esul s compa ed o he egionally de i ed BHI emphasizes he
ension field be ween globally defined SDGs and egional policy needs.
Gene ally, all h ee app oaches la gely neglec social equi y conside a ions,
and inclusion o his sus ainabili y pilla migh al e he esul s conside ably.
Howe e , he di e ence be ween weak and s ong sus ainable de elopmen ,
as in oduced by ou s udy, clea ly shows he ex en o which coun ies
pe o m une enly ac oss he di e en goals, demons a ing how ou
assessmen adds in o ma ion om a me hodological pe spec i e o o he
exis ing s udies.
Pu ing s a us and de elopmen in o pe spec i e
Fo coun ies ha ha e al eady achie ed s ong pe o mance in he a ious
indica o s ha measu e sus ainable de elopmen unde SDG 14, i becomes
mo e di ficul o imp o e u he . Consequen ly, Fig. 5pu s in o pe spec i e
he la es s a us and he p og ess made be ween 2012 and he mos ecen
yea a he SDG le el. P og ess is measu ed by a e aging he annual g ow h
a e compu ed by he slope o a log-linea eg ession o indica o sco es
agains ime o each coun y. Ra he hancompa ing wopoin sin ime,
his app oach includes all a ailable da a poin s e ec i ely measu ing he
end. S a us ep esen s he sco e unde he concep o weak sus ainabili y.
The do ed lines ep esen he EEZ-weigh ed a e age o bo h dimensions.
Coun ies a e g ouped in o ou ca ego ies: (i) mo ing ahead i bo h
s a us and p og ess exceed he EU a e age le el, (ii) ca ching up i he s a us
is s ill below a e age bu p og ess is ela i ely as , (iii) losing momen um i
coun ies isk hei abo e-a e age s a us by p esen ing low o nega i e
p og ess, and (i ) alling u he behind i bo h s a us and p og ess a e below
a e age.
Looking a he op igh co ne , i is clea ha he h ee Bal ic and No dic
coun ies a e p og essing. In pa icula , Es onia has he highes cu en s a us
and he as es p og ess o e ime. Among o he hings, i s apid p og ess is
due o s ong imp o emen s in Ta ge 14.1 ‘Pollu ion’, lowe eu ophica ion
le els, and highe plas ic ecycling a es (Indica o s 2. and 3., espec i ely).
Fig. 3 | Ranking and sco e change unde he wo concep s o sus ainabili y. Panel
(a) shows he anking o EU coas al coun ies unde he wo concep s o sus ain-
abili y o he mos ecen yea . E o ba s ep esen he s anda d de ia ion unde he
Mon e Ca lo simula ion calcula ion o a e age ank unde he concep o s ong
sus ainabili y. Panel (b) shows he de elopmen om 2012 o he mos ecen yea
unde wo concep s o sus ainabili y (CI
Coun y,Mos Recen
−CI
Coun y,2012
).
Belgium
Denma k
Es onia
Finland
F ance
Ge many
I eland
La ia
Li huania
Ne he lands
Poland
Po ugal
Spain
Sweden
Uni ed Kingdom
20
40
60
80 SDG 14 S ong SDG 14 Weak OHI Sco e BHI Sco e
Coun y
Sco e
Fig. 4 | Compa ison o coun y sco es wi h sco es ob ained om he Ocean
Heal h Index (OHI) and he Bal ic Heal h Index (BHI). Sco es a e shown o bo h
concep s o sus ainabili y. The e o ba s ep esen he s anda d de ia ion unde he
Mon e-Ca lo simula ion calcula ion o he a e age sco e unde he concep o s ong
sus ainabili y.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s44183-024-00082-6 A icle
npj Ocean Sus ainabili y | (2024) 3:48 5
In addi ion, i s op sco es in Ta ge 14.2 ‘Ecosys em-based Managemen ’and
14.b ‘A isanal Fishe ies’is a majo eason o i s high s a us.
O he coun ies ca ching up, I eland is he coun y wi h he la ges
a e age g ow h a e hanks o a subs an ial dec ease o high- isk sub-
sidies o he fishing indus y om 2014 o 2018. The coun y also
ela i ely inc eased i s coas al popula ion employed in ma ine- ela ed
ac i i ies compa ed o o he coun ies (Indica o 15a). Po ugal is
ano he in e es ing case p og essing quickly, wi h he fi h-highes
a e age g ow h a e. In pa icula , i has inc eased in Indica o 22.
‘IMO Pa icipa ion Ra e’and has imp o ed in he dimension o fishing
mo ali y (Indica o 8.). Howe e , Po ugal is ma ginally mo ing
ahead since i has he lowes sco e o Ta ge 14.1 ‘Pollu ion’because o
high eu ophica ion le els and high plas ic gene a ion pe capi a.
Simila ly, low co e age o ma ine p o ec ed a eas leads o low sco es in
Ta ge 14.5 ‘P o ec ion’.
Among hecoun ieslosingmomen um,Ge manyislosing he as es ,
wi h he second-la ges nega i e end jus behind The Ne he lands. I
pa icula ly ailed o mee he expec ed annual g ow h a e o 1.5% in g oss
alue added (GVA) o se e al yea s in he ma i ime anspo and coas al
ou ism sec o s, which oge he make up 60% o he GVA o he Ge man
blue economy18. O e all, while o he coun ies compensa e o nega i e
ends in some indica o s wi h p og ess in o he indica o s, Ge many p e-
sen s small alues in i s posi i e ends.
Las ly, he Ne he lands is alling behind he o he EU coas al coun ies.
In addi ion o a low sco e on Indica o 20. ‘A isanal Fishing’, heNe he -
lands had he g ea es losses in Indica o 12. ‘Subsidies’,implying ha he
pe cen age o subsidies ha isk p omo ing IUU fishing has inc eased he
mos . Fu he , examples o nega i e p og ess can be seen in Ta ge
15 ‘Li elihoods’due o a sha p d op in GVA pe hou wo ked in he blue
economy and inc easing eu ophica ion le els unde Ta ge 14.1.
Discussion
Es ablishing scien ifically easonable app oaches o indica o selec ion,
no malisa ion (ensu ing da a compa abili y), weigh ing (defining co ec
in e ela ionships), and agg ega ion (ob aining app op ia e unc ional
ela ionships) is essen ial o de eloping meaning ul Sus ainable De elop-
men indices19,20. The e may be p onounced di e ences in he indica o s
selec ed when social condi ions such as equi y and no only esou ce
a ailabili y, a e conside ed21. Ensu ing a mo e equi able dis ibu ion o
goods and se ices p o ided by he ocean emains a majo challenge22,
which is o en no adequa ely ep esen ed in indica o selec ion. Ins ead,
g ow h-based na a i es a e a ou ed, while compe ing discou ses a e la -
gely neglec ed23.
Un o una ely, in p ac ice, selec ing indica o s sui able o assess a
socio-en i onmen al sys em is cons ained by da a a ailabili y, cons i u ing
a no ma i e decision wi h implica ions o he ou comes o he composi e
indica o s ha ep esen he sus ainabili y a ge s. Mo eo e , we mus pay
pa icula a en ion o scale adjus men s and he ans o ma ion o highly
skewed indica o s19,24–26. Consequen ly, ou selec ion o indica o s o mea-
su e sus ainable ma ine de elopmen is guided by he SDG 14 amewo k.
Howe e , ou analysis ocuses on blue g ow h ollowing he concep o
A ow e al.27, ocusing on in e gene a ional equi y, bu does no del e in o
he social dimension o sus ainable de elopmen and in agene a ional
equi y28. While blue g ow h o e s po en ial benefi s such as sha ed p os-
pe i y, ood secu i y, local employmen , capaci y building and economic
gains, apid and uncon olled de elopmen can lead o en i onmen al and
social injus ices. O e all, ocean-based de elopmen ac i i ies a e likely o
esul in a mix o posi i e and nega i e social impac s o a ious socie al
g oups29.
The indica o s selec ed do no co e all aspec s o sus ainable de el-
opmen . By no being able o include ele an indica o s because hey a e no
measu able o hei da a is una ailable, ou selec ion does no always align
wi h he ocus o he SDG a ge s. Fo ins ance, by ocusing exclusi ely on
he o al esea ch budge alloca ed o ma ine echnology, we ail o conside
he b oade objec i e o Ta ge 14.a on ma ine science o enhance oceanic
heal h and de elop sus ainable p ac ices (see in his con ex also he Ocean
Decade’s emphasis on enhanced in eg a ed ocean managemen and he
ad ancemen o a sus ainable ocean economy30). To co e he comp e-
hensi eness o sus ainable de elopmen , ac ions should ad ance no only
biophysical knowledge o he ocean bu also i s ela ion o people and hei
well-being31. The SDGs equi e ocean science o be ansdisciplina y,
in ol ing collabo a ion wi h social sciences, policymake s, and local
knowledge holde s, e ec i ely educing powe imbalances31,32.
Ou indica o selec ion also su e s om he ‘coun y fi s ’app oach
which p io i ises o ficial coun y da a o e seconda y sou ces. Da a epo ed
by UN membe s a es, such as he da a ela ed o indica o s on fish ca ches
(14. and 19.) and fishing subsidies (12.) migh no be us wo hy33.In e -
na ionally compa able da a emains challenging, and quali y and adhe ence
o in e na ional s anda ds ac oss coun ies a y widely. Ano he cons ain
is he unce ain y o he e ec i eness o ce ain objec i es, such as Ta ge
14.5, which aims o measu e “ he co e age o p o ec ed a eas in ela ion o
ma ine a eas”, since he indica o s used canno accu a ely measu e his. In
ou assessmen o his a ge , he o ficial indica o o Key Biodi e si y A eas
is complemen ed by an indica o o Ma ine P o ec ed A eas (since p o ec ed
a eas ha e a b oade conse a ion pu pose). Howe e , an addi ional indi-
ca o could measu e how e ec i e a eas a e in achie ing hei p o ec ion
objec i es, which depend on a ange o managemen and en o cemen
ac o s34.
A pa icula issue wi h he amewo k designed by he In e -agency
and Expe G oup on SDG Indica o s (IAEG-SDGs) is ha ew a ge s
con ain mo e han one indica o . All en SDG 14 a ge s a e measu ed using
only one indica o each. We y o o e come his limi a ion by including a
leas wo indica o s pe a ge (excep 14.c). A limi ed numbe o indica o s
pe a ge can cause w ong incen i es and measu emen s, wi h indica o s
p io i ising ce ain aspec s o he SDGs o e o he s and ailing o cap u e he
ull scope o sus ainable de elopmen 35. Fo example, al hough Ta ge 14.7
aims o inc ease economic benefi s om he sus ainable use o ma ine
esou ces, i s single o ficial indica o measu es he alue added o sus ainable
ma ine cap u e fishe ies as a p opo ion o GDP. This indica o ails o
cap u e impo an aspec s o sus ainable ma ine esou ces managemen
such as p ese ing biodi e si y, p o ec ing coas al communi ies, and
ensu ing sus ainable li elihoods. We y o encompass mo e aspec s o his
a ge by including indica o s ha measu e he li elihoods o he coas al
popula ion (Indica o s 14a. and 14b.). Ye , ou indica o s a e s ill limi ed in
measu ing in agene a ional equi y wi hin he economic dimension, a
undamen al aspec o sus ainable de elopmen 36.
Ne he lands
Belgium
Uni ed Kingdom
Ge many
I eland
Denma k
F ance
Finland
La ia
Poland
Spain
Sweden
Po ugal
Li huania
Es onia
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5
62
64
66
68
70
72
P og ess
S a us (mos ecen )
F
ALLING BEHIND
FF
CA
TCHING UP
A
A
M
O
VIN
G
AHEAD
LOS
IN
G
M
O
MENT
UM
Fig. 5 | Compa ison o SDG 14 s a us (mos ecen yea , weak sus ainabili y) and
p og ess, calcula ed by a e aging he slope o he log-linea eg ession o indi-
ca o sco es agains ime. The dashed ho izon al and e ical lines a e he EEZ-
weigh ed a e age o he s a us and p og ess alues, espec i ely.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s44183-024-00082-6 A icle
npj Ocean Sus ainabili y | (2024) 3:48 6
The no malisa ion o selec ed indica o s implies some a bi a iness
ega ding he assessmen 19. Despi e all indica o s being scaled o a ange o
0–100 a e no malisa ion, i is s iking ha some indica o s yield high
sco es o mos coun ies, while o he s ypically esul in low sco es. This
dispa i y a ises due o he a ying ambi ions ac oss he indica o s, defining
he a ge s o no malisa ion. Fo example, a coun y’s pe o mance in
indica o 1. ‘Nu ien balance’is assessed agains he op 3 coun ies wi h he
lowes nu ien balance in Eu ope be ween 2012 and 2019. Al hough ou -
lie s ha e been excluded, his bes -p ac ice a ge s ill seems highly ambi-
ious, wi h only one coun y sco ing highe han 50 poin s. In con as ,
o ficial fishing quo as we e used as he e e ence o assessing coun ies in
15. TAC/Ca ch, esul ing in ela i ely high sco es (no coun y below 90
poin s) since his benchma k ep esen s a minimum equi emen a he
han an ambi ious sus ainabili y a ge .
The e is only mixed eal-wo ld e idence o he success o he Eu opean
Common Fishe ies Policy (CFP) ega ding a ge s 14.4 ‘Sus ainable Fishing’
and 14b ‘Small-scale Fishing’o e he las ew yea s. On he one hand, he
Eu opean Commission37 s a es ha fishing oppo uni ies imp o ed g ea ly
wi h ewe s ocks being o e fished. The Eu opean En i onmen Agency38
ecognises ha , in gene al, some s ock eco e y can be obse ed. Howe e ,
no all EU objec i es ha e been me and u he ac ion would u gen ly be
needed, some hing no immedia ely ob ious om ou indica o app oach.
In addi ion, significan (eco-) egional di e ences canno be easily esol ed
using coun y-le el indica o s. A p ominen example is he Bal ic Sea, wi h
s uggling fish s ocks and a su e ing small-scale fishe y39.
When i comes o fishe ies, a po en ial eason o he pe cei ed mis-
ma ch o he indica o sco e and he en i onmen al si ua ion is he sys em o
se ing e e ence poin s used in he assessmen and calcula ion o indica o s,
i.e., B
MSY
and F
MSY
. These indica o s a e egula ly e iewed and adap ed in a
o mal amewo k, he ICES benchma k p ocess40. While his adap a ion o
he a ge s is u gen ly needed o deli e he bes a ailable scien ific ad ice, i
also blu s he long- e m changes in he ecosys em. Ecosys em-d i en
educ ions in s ock p oduc i i y and, hence, B
MSY
a e no ully cap u ed in
he indica o s. Pa adoxically, a well-es ablished adap a ion sys em con-
ibu es o he blu iness o he indica o and lays he ounda ion o he
shi ing baseline synd ome41.
These conside a ions show ha i is ha dly possible o de elop a se o
indica o s conside ed o be he “ ue”assessmen om he pe spec i e o all
s akeholde s. On he con a y, he a ious challenges o measu ing, com-
pa ing, and agg ega ing dimensions o ocean heal h could be add essed by a
se ies o indices ha apply di e en selec ion, no malisa ion, and agg ega-
ion ules, esul ing in a dis ibu ion o imp o emen s s. deg ada ion42.The
quali y and obus ness o he assessmen imp o e wi h ime by compa ing
di e en assessmen s and mu ual lea ning. This way, he assessmen can
suppo accoun abili y, e ec i e epo ing and lea ning, and e idence-based
decision-making and scena io planning43.
Ou assessmen shows how dis inguishing be ween weak and
s ong sus ainabili y allows o iden i ying how a a balanced de el-
opmen is achie ed ac oss socioeconomic and ecological dimensions o
ocean heal h. In summa y, ou analysis suppo s he iew ha he EU
achie es sus ainable ma ine de elopmen , bu no comp ehensi ely
and ac oss all coun ies. While se en coun ies achie ed sus ainable
de elopmen unde bo h weak and s ong sus ainabili y, se en coun-
ies de eloped only unde weak sus ainabili y, and one coun y did no
achie e p og ess unde bo h concep s. Ne e heless, i is e iden ha
many ocean ecosys em se ices a e p o ided on a global scale, and a e
consequen ly influenced by he collec i e ac ion o humani y. This is
pa icula ly e iden in he case o he ocean ca bon sink. The objec i e
o ou s udy is o compa e EU coun ies (and how hey con ibu e o
he mi iga ion o global challenges) and no o posi ion hese coun ies
in a wo ld anking. Ou ocus is on EU policymake s and we a e
conce ned wi h he p essu e coun ies exe on he sys em. Rega ding
he in e p e a ion o he anking, i should be no ed ha a high anking
in he EU compa ison does no necessa ily imply a mino o e all
con ibu ion o a global p oblem.
Me hods
Indica o selec ion
Se e al economic and pa icula na u al capi al s ocks unde lying blue
g ow h can only be app oxima ed by indica o s44. Conce ning indica o
selec ion, we p io i ised he eliabili y and a ailabili y o da a o quan ifi-
ca ion o e longe ime ho izons and he possibili y o de i ing poli ical
objec i es. Acco dingly, ou indica o selec ionisguidedby heUNGlobal
Indica o F amewo k. Howe e , he UN SDG indica o base is subjec o
se e al limi a ions. I has been c i icised o ailing o adequa ely add ess he
social dimensions o sus ainable de elopmen and no being as ca e ully
selec ed and de eloped as he SDGs hemsel es33,35. Fu he mo e, se e al
p oposed indica o s (14.1.1, 14.3.1, 14.4.1) in he amewo k aim a mea-
su ing he s a e o ma ine esou ces, p e en ing he assessmen o he
p essu e pu and he p og ess made by coun ies. Mos indica o s (14.2.1,
14.4.1, 14.6.1, 14.a.1, 14.b.1, and 14.c.1) ha assess he p essu e o esponse
o coun ies p esen la ge spa ial and o empo al da a gaps o a e measu ed
wi h bina y o ca ego ical da a, p e en ing a p ope assessmen o he
p og ess owa ds he SDG 14 and compa ison be ween EU coun ies.
The e o e, al hough we aim o measu e he en o ficial SDG 14 a ge s, we
could no include he o ficial UN indica o s besides wo excep ions (12. Key
Biodi e si y A eas, 19. Ma ine Resea ch). When choosing indica o s, we
aim o measu e he con ibu ion o coun ies in each a ge , ei he using
p essu e indica o s (e.g., ca bon emissions pe capi a ins ead o a e age
ma ine acidi y) o esponse indica o s (e.g., p og ess o implemen a ion o
Ma i ime Spa ial Planning as an al e na i e o coun ies using ecosys em-
based app oaches o managing ma ine a eas). In some cases, hese p essu e
indica o s a e complemen ed wi h s a e indica o s (e.g., inclusion o
eu ophica ion le els in 14.1 Pollu ion) o a mo e comp ehensi e
assessmen .
Fo fishe ies- ela ed indica o s, we ely on da a om he In e na ional
Council o he Explo a ion o he Sea (ICES). Ta ge 14.4 ‘Sus ainable
Fishing’is measu ed by bo h he le el o fishing mo ali y (8. F
MSY
/F) and
biomass (9. B/B
MSY
) in compa ison o hei le el unde Maximum Sus-
ainabili y Yield (MSY) condi ions. In addi ion, we measu e adhe ence o
scien ificad icewhenfishing quo as a e se by including an indica o ha
compa es scien ific ad ice on ca ch p o ided by ICES o he ac ual To al
Allowable Ca ch (TAC) se poli ically (19. ‘SAD/TAC’). Finally, indica o
14. ‘TAC/Ca ch’measu es he adhe ence o ealised ca ches o he fishing
quo a. Depending on he yea and indica o , 52-75 fish s ocks we e included
in he assessmen . Gene ally, ICES da a a e ob ained a he fish-s ock le el.
To measu e he con ibu ion o each coun y o he s a e o he fish s ock, we
calcula ed ca ch-weigh ed a e ages. Fo indica o s 8., 14. and 19., we ake he
yea ly coun y ca ches, bu o indica o 9. B/B
MSY
we use a se en-yea
mo ing a e age o accoun o pas ca ches ha ha e led o he deple ion o
oday’s s ock. The summa y o he indica o selec ion can be ound in Table
1. Mo e in o ma ion on indica o selec ion can be ound in he supple-
men a y in o ma ion.
Indica o ans o ma ion and agg ega ion
We apply a di e ence- o- a ge no malisa ion o calcula e a io-scale, ully
compa able (RFC) indica o s wi h a [0–100] ange (An indica o X
I
is a io-
scale measu able i i s o de ing is unique up o a ans o ma ion o his
a iable by
i
(x)=a
i
×xwhe e a
i
> 0) which allows meaning ul
agg ega ion19,45. We choose a ge no malisa ion because, unlike a io no -
maliza ion (e.g. min–max no maliza ion), ex emal elemen s in a da a se do
no influence no malised alues. Since scales wo k as implici weigh s, when
he minimum and maximum alues a e wide apa , hey can dis o he
index sco es24. Mo eo e , a ge no malisa ion is ee om d ama ic changes
ha occu in a io no maliza ion when ex eme alues in he da ase
change45. Ano he ad an age o a ge no malisa ion is i s abili y o include
con ex ually ele an pa ame e s in he o m o baseline and a ge alues.
This specifici y o a a ge also helps in in e p e ing he no malised alues.
The a ge alues may align wi h he cha ac e is ics and en i onmen al o
socioeconomic equi emen s o he sys em being s udied (e.g., he plane a y
bounda y o main aining global a e age CO
2
in he a mosphe e a 350
h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s44183-024-00082-6 A icle
npj Ocean Sus ainabili y | (2024) 3:48 7
ppm), and hey can also be uni o m alues, such as hose ou lined in go -
e nmen egula ions o o ganisa ional guidance (e.g., a ge 14.5: Conse e
a leas 10% o coas al and ma ine a eas).
To de i e a a ge o each indica o , we ollowed a h ee-s ep app oach:
(1) when a ailable, we use a uni o m a ge . This is he case o 11. MPA/EEZ
(ins ead o he UN a ge , we ollow he ad ice o Schellnhube e al.46:ma ine
p o ec ed a eas should co e a leas 20–30% o he a ea o ma ine ecosys ems)
and o 17. IMO Pa icipa ion ( ollowing Rickels e al.47,wechoose he
maximum numbe o sea p o ocols as he a ge alue); (2) In he absence o
o ficial a ge s, we choose a ge s ha align wi h he en i onmen al sys em
being s udied. This applies o fish- ela ed indica o s (e.g., fishing mo ali y in
line wi h MSY o indica o 8.) and o p e-indus ial pH le el o indica o 7.);
(3) As he las esou ce, we de e mine a a ge using he a e age o he op
h ee pe o ming coun ies in he da ase . Be o e calcula ing his endogenous
a ge ,we emo eou lie susing hein e qua ileme hodandchoose o
conside all EU coun ies p esen in he da ase , no only he 15 coun ies
included in his assessmen . The e e ence alue de i ed using his app oach
can be in e p e ed as a “bes -p ac ice” a ge . Apa om he benefi s o using
a ge no malisa ion ou lined abo e, se ing a benchma k wi hin he EU
coun ies omeasu e p og ess aidsin de eloping a policy- ele an assessmen .
We apply a gene alised mean o inco po a e a ange o subs i u ion
elas ici y alues ha allow us o assess p og ess unde he concep o s ong
and weak sus ainabili y48,49. Conside he gene alised mean acco ding o
social choice heo y19,50 o he o m:
CIc ðαi ;Ii ;σÞ¼ X
N
i¼1
αi I
σ1
σ
i
!
σ
σ1
o ¼2012;2016;2021ðo mos ecen Þ
ð1Þ
whe e CI
c
is he composi e indica o alue o coun y ca ime ,I
ic
is he
alue o indica o i o coun y ca ime ,α
i
is he weigh o indica o ia
ime ,andσis he elas ici y o subs i u ion be ween he di e en indica o s,
wi h α
i
>0and0≤σ≤∞. La ge alues o σ ansla e in o high elas ici y o
subs i u ion, which implies ha i is ela i ely easy o compensa e a low sco e
in one indica o wi h a high sco e in ano he indica o (weak sus ainabili y).
Theopposi eis ue o small alueso σ.AsshowninFig.6, hecomposi e
indica o can be de i ed om a ious specific unc ion o ms, wi h he
specific o mde e minedby he alueo σ.
By elying on a gene alised mean o cons uc he sco es, we ensu e he
obus ness and anspa ency o he esul s. By con as ing agg ega ed sco es
ob ained unde he wo concep s o sus ainabili y, we can iden i y unba-
lanced pe o mance ac oss a ge s because sco e alues unde s ong sus-
ainabili y a e mo e sensi i e o le ou lie s. To unde s and he implica ions
o his app oach, conside wo coun ies whose indica o alues sum up o
he same amoun , bu one coun y has mo e balanced alues. While he
a i hme ic mean (weak sus ainabili y) e u ns he same sco e o bo h
coun ies, he geome ic mean (s ong sus ainabili y) e u ns a highe sco e
o he coun y wi h he mos balanced alues. Ins ead o assigning weigh s
o specific indica o s o di e en ia e hei impo ance o sus ainable
de elopmen , his me hod eflec s a p e e ence o balanced pe o mance
be ween indica o s and a ge s47,51.
Conside ing ha he a ge s a e composed o se e al complemen a y
indica o s, we assume ha he subs i u ion possibili ies be ween indica o s
co esponding o a specific a ge a e highe han he subs i u ion possibi-
li ies be ween a ge s. Following Rickels e al.47, we build a nes ed composi e
indica o wi h di e en subs i u ion possibili ies a di e en s eps o he
agg ega ion p ocess. We calcula e he a ge sco esunde heassump ions
σ
a ge
=10
26 and σ
a ge
=0.5
52 o compa e he esul s be ween he wo
concep s o sus ainabili y. The same p ocedu e is applied o he agg ega ion
a heSDGle el,whe eweassumeσ
SDG
≤1 o he concep o s ong
sus ainabili y and σ
SDG
→∞(pe ec subs i u ion possibili ies) o he
concep o weak sus ainabili y. Ins ead o choosing a specific alue o he
case o σ
SDG
<1,weassumeσ
SDG
~U(0, 1) and implemen a Mon e Ca lo
simula ion (N= 10,000) o ob ain a ange o sco es o he concep o s ong
sus ainabili y a he goal le el.
The composi e indica o CI
c
allows us o compa e he s a e o ocean
esou ces and se ices in he selec ed EU coas al coun ies a a specificpoin
in ime. By compa ing CI
c
in di e en yea s (ΔCI =CI
mos ecen
−CI
2012
), we
can assess p og ess o e ime (see Fig. 2b).
To assess he di ec ion o p og ess o each coun y, we calcula e he
change o end using he slope coe ficien o a log-linea eg ession o each
I
ic
agains ime (ln(I
ic
)=a+b
ic
)whe ebis he slope o be es ima ed and a=
I
ic0
. To calcula e he linea eg ession, we use all da a be ween2012 and 2023,
wi h he a ailable da a poin s a ying be ween indica o s. The slopes a e
agg ega ed a he a ge and goal le el using he a i hme ic mean (weak
sus ainabili y).
We use he log-linea eg ession me hod o es ima e he a e age
annual g ow h a e, simila o S a is icsNe he lands53 and heWo ldBank
54
because i o e s a mo e comp ehensi e analysis han he compound annual
g ow h a e (CAGR) used in some SDG assessmen s, such as hose by he
Uni ed Na ions55 and Eu os a 56. While CAGR only conside s he fi s and
las da a poin s, po en ially missing aluable fluc ua ions, he linea
eg ession app oach uses all a ailable da a poin s, ensu ing a mo e accu a e
ep esen a ion o ends. The eg ession app oach is also ad an ageous o
indica o s wi hlimi ed da a poin s, whose ends canno be measu ed using
he simple a e age annual g ow h a e (AAGR) (see Sachs e al.57). Despi e
some limi a ions, such as assuming linea i y and he assump ion o
unco ela ed esiduals in ime se ies53, he me hod o e s aluable insigh s
when combined wi h sco e da a and suppo s long- e m s uc u al change
assessmen o e empo a y a ia ions.
Da a a ailabili y
The da a and code ha suppo he findings o his s udy a e openly a ailable
in OSF a h ps://doi.o g/10.17605/OSF.IO/7P3ED.
Code a ailabili y
Thecode ha suppo s hefindings o his s udy is openly a ailable in OSF a
h ps://doi.o g/10.17605/OSF.IO/7P3ED.
Recei ed: 24 Ma ch 2024; Accep ed: 11 Sep embe 2024;
Re e ences
1. Eu opean Comission. Sus ainable De elopmen in he Eu opean
Union—Moni o ing Repo on P og ess Towa ds he SDGS in an EU
Con ex —2023 edi ion.h ps://doi.o g/10.2785/403194 (2022).
2. Eu opean Commission. The EU’s Volun a y Re iew Rea fi ms
Commi men o Deli e ing he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals a
Gene alized
Mean
Elas ici y o
subs i u ion
Func ional
Fo m
Subs i u ion
Possibili ies
Sus ainabili y
Concep
None Impe ec Pe ec
S ong Weak
Fig. 6 | Diag am o he gene alized mean unc ional o ms depending on he
concep o sus ainabili y. Depending on he elas ici y o subs i u ion, he gene al-
ized mean akes on di e en unc ional o ms, which co espond o di e en sub-
s i u ion possibili ies and concep s o sus ainabili y (adap ed om Rickels e al.59).
h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s44183-024-00082-6 A icle
npj Ocean Sus ainabili y | (2024) 3:48 8
