Aydın, Yaşa
Resea ch Repo
Tu key on he pa h o au oc acy: Economic consequences
and policy op ions o he EU and Ge many
SWP Commen , No. 20/2025
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Ge man Ins i u e o In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s,
Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Aydın, Yaşa (2025) : Tu key on he pa h o au oc acy: Economic consequences
and policy op ions o he EU and Ge many, SWP Commen , No. 20/2025, S i ung Wissenscha und
Poli ik (SWP), Be lin,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18449/2025C20
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/318314
S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen:
Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen
Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den.
Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle
Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich
machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen.
So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen
(insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en,
gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do
genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e.
Te ms o use:
Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal
and schola ly pu poses.
You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o
exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he
in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public.
I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en
Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise
u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence.
h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/
NO.
20
MAY 2025
In oduc ion
Tu key on he Pa h o Au oc acy
Economic Consequences and Policy Op ions o he EU and Ge many
Yaşa Aydın
Tu key is a isk o descending in o au oc acy. Tha isk pe sis s e en hough he
esis ance pu up by he opposi ion Republican People’s Pa y ollowing he a es
o Mayo o İs anbul Ek em İmamoğlu has sa ed he pa y – a leas o now – om
being placed unde a us ee and he İs anbul Me opoli an Municipali y om being
subjec ed o he adminis a ion o he s a e. The comple e au oc a isa ion o Tu key
can be p e en ed only i opposi ion esis ance ecei es b oad and consis en suppo
om among he popula ion, economic g ow h is jeopa dised by poli ical ins abili y
and he Eu opean Union esponds in a uni ied manne . I is in he in e es o nei he
he EU no Ge many o Tu key o become poli ically and economically des abilised
h ough u he au oc a isa ion, as his would impede he coun y’s abili y o ul il
i s egional esponsibili ies, which include cu bing mig a ion, de e ing Russia and
s abilising Sy ia. The EU can exe cise a cons uc i e in luence o e Tu key by o e ing
he p ospec o alks on he mode nisa ion o he cus oms union and he acili a ion
o isas and by p omising i a g ea e say in he Eu opean secu i y a chi ec u e – on
condi ion ha Anka a espec s democ a ic p inciples and he ule o law.
On 19 Ma ch 2025, he mayo o İs anbul,
Ek em İmamoğlu, and 99 people associa ed
wi h him we e a es ed in a la ge-scale
police ope a ion. İmamoğlu should ha e
been i s summoned o ques ioning,
which aises doub s abou he o mal legal-
i y o he in es iga i e p ocess. A he same
ime, he a ge ed denuncia ion o İmamoğlu
and he opposi ion Republican People’s
Pa y (CHP) h ough campaigns in go e n-
men -aligned (social) media and he e oca-
ion o he uni e si y deg ee he ecei ed in
1994 ha e a oused suspicion ha he c imi-
nal p oceedings a e poli ically mo i a ed.
And ha suspicion is ein o ced by P esi-
den Recep Tayyip E doğan’s in e e ence
in he in es iga ion.
İmamoğlu is accused o manipula ing
public p ocu emen ende s, ca ying ou
illegal inancial ansac ions and unlaw ully
using he pe sonal da a o İs anbul esiden s.
He is also cha ged wi h “suppo ing e o -
ism”, which has been made based on he
“u ban consensus” s a egy pu sued by he
p o-Ku dish Peoples’ Equali y and Democ-
acy Pa y (DEM) and he CHP in he 2024
local elec ions. The DEM e ained om
unning i s own candida es in wes e n
Tu kish ci ies, op ing ins ead o suppo
he CHP.
SWP Commen 20
May 2025
2
Reasons o he campaign
agains he opposi ion and
i s consequences
The la es ac ions agains he Tu kish oppo-
si ion a e pa o a se ies o ope a ions
o de ed by he judicia y in ecen mon hs.
Since Is anbul appoin ed a new chie public
p osecu o las Oc obe , h ee CHP dis ic
mayo s ha e been a es ed; and las mon h,
se e al local poli icians om he CHP and
he DEM we e de ained, mainly in ope a-
ions ha ecei ed a g ea deal o publici y.
Meanwhile, he police de en ion o he wo
op ep esen a i es o he Tu kish Indus y
and Business Associa ion (TÜSİAD) ollow-
ing hei c i icism o he ins umen alisa-
ion o he judicia y as a poli ical weapon
d ew a la ge amoun o a en ion.
Howe e , he esis ance o he CHP is
u ning he s a egy o he Tu kish judicia y
and law en o cemen in o a boome ang o
P esiden E doğan. Following İmamoğlu’s
a es , hund eds o housands ook o
he s ee s in Is anbul, Anka a, İzmi and
nume ous o he owns h oughou he
coun y. The p o es s con inue o g ow and
a e inc easingly e ol ing in o a b oad-based
esis ance mo emen agains E doğan.
Is he go e nmen ollowing a
powe logic o an economic logic?
The a es s and he ensuing wa e o p o-
es s ha e also had a signi ican impac on
he domes ic economy. The s ock ma ke
has plumme ed, he alue o he Tu kish
li a has dec eased signi ican ly and billions
in o eign cu ency ha e been injec ed in o
he o eign exchange ma ke in a bid o
s abilise he na ional cu ency. This aises
he ques ion o why P esiden E doğan has
allowed c iminal in es iga ions and p o-
ceedings o be ini ia ed agains İmamoğlu
and o he CHP mayo s a a ime when he e
a e s ill mo e han h ee yea s un il he
nex p esiden ial elec ion.
The e a e wo possible answe s o ha
ques ion – one ela ed o geopoli ics and
he o he o he poli ical si ua ion in Tu -
key i sel . The geopoli ical eading poin s
o Tu key’s enhanced s a egic impo ance
owing o ensions be ween he Uni ed S a es
and he EU, i s suppo o Uk aine in Rus-
sia’s wa o agg ession agains ha coun y
and he in luence i wields in Sy ia. P esi-
den E doğan is belie ed o ha e coun ed
on a es ained esponse om he US go -
e nmen and he EU o he supp ession o
he Tu kish opposi ion by judicial means.
The domes ic poli ical eading is ha
E doğan op ed o a con on a ional s ance
owa ds he opposi ion because o he
e osion o bo h his powe and ha o his
go e nmen . In ea ly Ma ch, P esiden
E doğan was signi ican ly ailing behind
İmamoğlu and Mansu Ya aş, he CHP
mayo o Anka a, in he opinion polls,
while his Jus ice and De elopmen Pa y
(AKP) has ceased o be he s onges poli ical
o ce in Tu key. This sugges s he legal p o-
ceedings agains he mayo o Is anbul can
be seen as an a emp o di ide he CHP
and he DEM and weaken he opposi ion.
Indeed, he hea y police p esence and
es ic ions on he igh o assembly in
Is anbul – and, o some ex en , in o he
ci ies as well – only ein o ce he imp es-
sion ha he e is a delibe a e a emp
unde way o in imida e he opposi ion.
To ully unde s and he mo i es behind
E doğan’s s a egy, i is necessa y o analyse
he economic backg ound. A solely powe -
poli ical pe spec i e alls sho o explain-
ing he p esiden ’s ac ions and mus be
complemen ed by an analysis ha akes
in o accoun he economic in e es s and
cons ain s shaping he measu es aken
by E doğan.
The economic impo ance o
CHP-led municipali ies
Following he 2024 local elec ions, he CHP
became he s onges poli ical o ce in he
coun y as well as a signi ican economic
ac o . Fo he pas yea , he pa y has
go e ned 14 me opoli an municipali ies,
21 p o incial capi als, 337 dis ic s and 61
owns. Combined, hese CHP-led municipal-
i ies a e home o 62 pe cen o he popu-
la ion, gene a e 73.4 pe cen o GDP, hold
SWP Commen 20
May 2025
3
84.5 pe cen o o al p i a e sa ings and
accoun o 79.6 pe cen o Tu key’s o al
expo s. Mo eo e , he a e age pe capi a
income o CHP-go e ned municipali ies
exceeds ha o hose go e ned by he AKP.
This has gi en he CHP a s a egic ad-
an age h ough which i is able o exe cise
a decisi e in luence on he na ional eco-
nomic cycle and he eby es ablish an al e -
na i e sphe e o powe . The CHP-led munici-
pali ies a e able o commission in as uc-
u e p ojec s o signi ican alue and ha e
hus become no only clien s o businesses
bu also majo cus ome s in wholesale
ade and he employe s o se e al hund ed
housand wo ke s. As a esul , en ep e-
neu s and cons uc ion companies, among
o he s, no longe need o depend solely
on con ac s om he cen al go e nmen ,
which allows hem o be mo e asse i e in
hei dealings wi h P esiden E doğan and
his go e nmen . Some en ep eneu s ha e
al eady u ned hei backs o some ex en
on he p esiden and his go e nmen . And
his new economic powe o he CHP is
pa icula ly impo an inso a as high in-
e es a es on loans ha e se ed as a b ake
on in es men s and o de s in he cons uc-
ion sec o o almos wo yea s now.
The economic signi icance o he İs an-
bul Me opoli an Municipali y can ha dly
be o e es ima ed. Unde he AKP om 1995
o 2019, he municipali y ecei ed e enues
o alling US$85 billion om 130 majo
de elopmen p ojec s. The loss o İs anbul
in 2019 mean he loss o a cen al eco-
nomic le e and wha was, inancially, a
c ucial “li eline” o he AKP, he absence o
which is s ill clea ly el in he cu en ime
o inancial cons ain . This explains why
he E doğan go e nmen is de e mined o
ecap u e he me opolis h ough judicial
measu es and, i necessa y, will ensu e con-
ol o e he ci y by pu ing i unde he
adminis a ion o he s a e.
The municipali ies go e ned by he
CHP – abo e all, İs anbul and Anka a –
ha e made a name o hemsel es h ough
hei social municipal policies. They ha e
aken a ious measu es o coun e he
ising cos o li ing and po e y, ealised
social bene i s, awa ded schola ships o
s uden s and buil s uden accommoda ion.
O g ea impo ance a e he non-p o i
municipal es au an s (Ken Lokan ala ı)
subsidised by he CHP-led municipali ies,
which help elie e he bu den on he low-
income segmen o he popula ion. Tha he
cen al go e nmen is uneasy abou hese
municipal es au an s is e iden om he
in es iga ion launched by he Minis y o
T ade in o gas o c i ic Veda Milo o e
“clandes ine ad e ising”. Milo had isi ed
one o hose es au an s in Üsküda (İs an-
bul) in Janua y 2025 and sha ed his culina y
imp essions on his YouTube channel.
The CHP has succeeded in imp o ing
he e e yday li es o b oad segmen s o he
elec o a e h ough i s social policies in he
municipali ies i go e ns, pa icula ly he
İs anbul Me opoli an Municipali y, and
p omo ing i sel as a po en ial go e ning
pa y a he na ional le el. Such an app oach
se es as an al e na i e o he E doğan go -
e nmen ’s economic model, which is based
on high in e es a es, a educ ion in pu -
chasing powe and cu s o social bene i s.
Agains he backg ound o he na ionwide
us a ion wi h he cu en economic
mise y – high in la ion, loss o pu chasing
powe , po e y and ea s o he u u e
amid oday’s p eca ious condi ions – he
CHP’s local policies a e clea ly unde mining
he epu a ion o he E doğan go e nmen .
The p ice o ins abili y
A he same ime, he go e nmen c ack-
down on he opposi ion en ails isks o
he economy. Immedia ely a e he a es
o İmamoğlu and o he s close o him, he
ma ke capi alisa ion o companies ell
by a ound 1.9 illion Tu kish li a. Capi al
ou lows accele a ed and in es o s shi ed
om domes ic asse s o o eign cu encies.
The benchma k in e es a e ose om 37.1
pe cen o 44.6 pe cen , pushing up he
go e nmen ’s bo owing cos s by 7.5 pe -
cen age poin s. And he Tu kish isk p e-
mium ose om 250 basis poin s o 383,
which signi ican ly inc eased he cos o
o eign loans.
SWP Commen 20
May 2025
4
Fo i s pa , he Cen al Bank o Tu key
(CBRT) had o sell o eign cu ency on he
ma ke o p e en a d as ic ise in he ex-
change a e; as a esul , i s ese es ell by
almos US$25 billion. The o al asse s o he
banking sec o plumme ed, oo – by 25 pe
cen . The CBRT’s Mone a y Policy Commi -
ee con ened a special mee ing o s op he
e osion o he bank’s ese es and aised he
o e nigh a e om 44 pe cen o 46 pe
cen . These ecen de elopmen s a e expec ed
o ha e a nega i e impac on he assess-
men s o he a ing agencies ha e alua e
Tu key’s c edi and in es men wo hiness.
Thus, he a es s and s ee p o es s ha e
clea economic consequences. And his in
i sel sugges s ha he economy may p o e
decisi e in dissuading he E doğan go e n-
men om pu suing any u he escala ion
o au oc a isa ion.
Wha nex o Tu key?
Do he s ee p o es s and he CHP’s esis -
ance sound he dea h knell o he E doğan
e a? O a e hey simply an obs acle on he
oad o ull au oc acy? The e a e se e al
scena ios – no p edic ions bu possibili ies
o u he poli ical de elopmen – ha
could be ske ched ou he e. Th ee a e
analysed in de ail below.
Th ee scena ios
Consolida ion o au oc acy: The s ee
p o es s subside, he EU and he US a e
es ained in hei c i icism and İmamoğlu
is banned om poli ics a e being con-
ic ed o co up ion and suppo ing e o -
ism. E doğan and his go e nmen secu e
hei g ip on powe and con inue wi h he
ep essions. The opposi ion agmen s and
is no longe able o ac ; he pa liamen is
dissol ed a a poli ically a ou able ime
om he go e nmen ’s poin o iew.
E doğan and his People’s Alliance eme ge
ic o ious om he ea ly elec ions and he
au oc a ic egime is consolida ed.
This consolida ion o au oc acy causes
economic ins abili y. Tu key is dependen
on o eign di ec in es men and capi al
in lows o boos g ow h; bu he imp ison-
men o an elec ed mayo on limsy cha ges
and he a es s o well-known igu es –
om ac o s and jou nalis s o in luen ial
business leade s – on an almos daily basis
c ea e an un a ou able in es men en i on-
men . The subsequen s agna ion o he
economy has a nega i e impac on Ge man
and Eu opean expo s o Tu key, uelling
u he mig a ion om Tu key o he EU
and especially Ge many.
Disin eg a ion o he go e ning bloc:
Amid in e nal ensions wi hin he AKP
and he People’s Alliance, moun ing in e -
na ional c i icism – pa icula ly he un-
comp omising s ance o he EU – and
g owing dissa is ac ion among he popu-
la ion and he business communi y o e he
poli ical and economic si ua ion, he MHP
wi hd aws i s suppo o E doğan and he
AKP. The CHP, he MHP, he DEM and o he
opposi ion o ces o m a pa liamen a y alli-
ance wi h a wo- hi ds majo i y and dis-
sol e he pa liamen . This pa es he way o
new pa liamen a y and p esiden ial elec-
ions. İmamoğlu o ano he consensus can-
dida e uns o he P esidency and de ea s
E doğan. Howe e , an alliance comp ised o
pa ies wi h such di e gen poli ical agendas
is unlikely o ensu e a smoo h ansi ion o
democ a isa ion; a he , i could well ushe
in a pe iod o poli ical ins abili y.
Ag eemen on ea ly elec ions: Fea ing
he economic consequences o u he esca-
la ion, E doğan yields o public p essu e,
opposi ion esis ance and c i icism om
he EU. He uses he c iminal p oceedings
agains and p e- ial de en ion o İmamoğlu
as a s a egic ba gaining chip is-à- is he
CHP leade ship. Agains his backd op,
he wo sides ag ee o hold ea ly elec ions.
İmamoğlu is eleased om p e- ial de en-
ion and he cha ges agains him d opped –
p o ided ha he CHP consen s o he dis-
solu ion o he pa liamen and new elec-
ions. This sequence o e en s could lead o
a mo e s able poli ical ansi ion – one in
which Tu key es ablishes a new elec o al
sys em and eposi ions i sel poli ically
unde a new p esiden and a CHP-led alli-
SWP Commen 20
May 2025
5
ance. Mo eo e , he o de ly ans e o
powe , accompanied by poli ical and eco-
nomic s abili y, would o e he chance
o ese EU–Tu key ela ions and could
s eng hen he EU’s geopoli ical s anding.
All h ee scena ios a e concei able.
Whe he any o hem ma e ialises – and
i so, which one – will depend on bo h he
poli ical dynamics wi hin Tu key and he
eac ions and de elopmen s in he in e -
na ional a ena. A key ac o will be whe he
he s ee p o es s con inue o be non- iolen
and whe he he CHP is able o inc ease
p essu e on he E doğan go e nmen , main-
ain a b oad opposi ion alliance and gain
he suppo o ci il socie y, ade unions
and business associa ions. The deg ee o
which he EU ac s wi h uni y will play a
c ucial ole, oo. Ul ima ely, he in e play
be ween domes ic and in e na ional p es-
su e could o ce he Tu kish go e nmen o
econside i s ep essi e, au oc a ic cou se
in o de o achie e i s geopoli ical, o eign-
policy and ade objec i es.
Fo hei pa , Ge many and he EU ha e
secu i y and economic policy ins umen s
a hei disposal wi h which o exe cise
a cons uc i e in luence o e Tu key.
Policy op ions o he
EU and Ge many
The “consolida ion o au oc acy’” scena io
would be in he in e es o nei he he EU
no Ge many, as u he au oc a isa ion in
Tu key would likely lead o poli ical and
economic ins abili y. As a esul , Anka a
would no longe be able o mee i s egional
esponsibili ies, which include managing
mig a ion lows, de e ing Russia and con-
ibu ing o he s abilisa ion o Sy ia.
The scena io o he “disin eg a ion o
he go e ning bloc” would be undesi able,
oo, as i could uel poli ical ins abili y
and he eby impai Tu key’s abili y o ac .
Tu key’s geopoli ical s anding would be
weakened and he s a egic in e es s o he
EU and Ge many in he egion jeopa dised.
The “ag eemen on ea ly elec ions” sce-
na io aligns wi h Eu opean and Ge man in-
e es s, as i would hold ou he possibili y
o he poli ical s abilisa ion o Tu key and
a ealignmen o ela ions wi h he EU. Bu
gi en ha he membe s a es a e pu suing
di e gen app oaches owa ds Tu key based
on hei own in e es s, i is unclea whe he
he EU could adop a uni ied posi ion du -
ing he elec ion campaign and main ain a
c i ical s ance owa ds E doğan.
So a , he e has been li le c i icism
om he US o he ecen de elopmen s in
Tu key, while he esponses om EU ins i-
u ions and Ge many ha e been somewha
es ained. In Ge many, wo app oaches a e
being deba ed: i) a oiding close secu i y co-
ope a ion wi h Tu key unde he cu en go -
e nmen ; and ii) con inuing o engage wi h
he E doğan adminis a ion h ough quie
diplomacy ha u ges adhe ence o he ule
o law and democ a ic p inciples. The la e
app oach is based on he assessmen ha
he EU depends on a s able Tu key – bo h
as an impo an NATO pa ne , especially
o de e ing Russia, and as a bu e o
con aining mig a ion lows o Eu ope.
While his assessmen is sound, i o e -
looks a c ucial aspec : in he cu en geo-
poli ical si ua ion, Tu key con inues o
need NATO p o ec ion and he EU – as
an economic pa ne and as a ma ke o
Tu kish goods and se ices – in o de o
ensu e i s na ional secu i y and keep i s
economy on a g ow h ajec o y. Tha
eali y is unde sco ed by Tu key’s ac i e
pu sui o a key ole in he Eu opean secu-
i y a chi ec u e. The same applies o he
Tu kish de ence indus y: despi e echno-
logical ad ancemen s, Anka a emains
dependen on he EU in many a eas. To al
disengagemen om his dependency
h ough coope a ion wi h o he s a es o
blocs is un ealis ic. Indeed, he sus ainable
de elopmen o Tu key’s de ence indus y
will con inue o equi e close collabo a ion
wi h EU membe s a es.
Agains his backd op, Ge many and he
EU could exe cise in luence on Tu key by
laying down he ollowing condi ions o in-
c eased secu i y coope a ion, u he in e-
g a ion in o he Eu opean secu i y a chi ec-
u e and mo e coope a ion in he de ence
SWP Commen 20
May 2025
6
sphe e: Tu key mus e u n o he ule
o law, i mus hal he mo e owa ds ull
au oc acy and i mus espec human igh s.
Ano he impo an le e age would be
nego ia ions on he mode nisa ion o he
cus oms union and he acili a ion o isas.
Bo h issues a e o signi ican impo ance o
Tu key as i seeks o imp o e he domes ic
in es men clima e. The Tu kish economy
is closely in e wined wi h ha o he EU,
and he e u n o economic dynamism is
highly dependen on he u he deepening
o hose ies. Tu key and i s indus ial sec-
o a e aiming o g ea e in eg a ion in o
Eu opean supply chains; bu i he coun y
we e o con inue o d i u he owa ds
au oc acy, i s chances o bene i ing om
esho ing would be signi ican ly educed,
which means he e would be a majo eco-
nomic incen i e o econside he au oc a ic
cou se. The EU and Ge many could dangle
he p ospec o g ea e supply-chain in e-
g a ion while wa ning he Tu kish go e n-
men agains ca ying on down he pa h
o au oc acy.
A he same ime, he new Ge man
go e nmen would s ill ha e he op ion
o limi ing expo gua an ees o Ge man
companies doing business wi h Tu key,
as i did in 2018. This measu e led o he
Tu kish go e nmen doing a U- u n on he
p ac ice o imp isoning Ge man ci izens,
including en ep eneu s and human igh s
ac i is s, on umped-up cha ges and pu -
ing Ge man companies on a “ e o is lis ”.
Tu key s ands a a c oss oads, aced wi h
decisions ha will no only shape i s own
u u e bu also a ec i s ela ions wi h he
EU and Ge many as well as he geopoli ical
s abili y o he egion. I is he e o e in he
in e es o bo h he EU and Ge many o
send a clea signal o Anka a ha he e can
be no s a egic pa ne ship wi h an au o-
c a ic Tu key. Le e s a e a ailable ha can
a oid a comple e up u e in EU-Tu kish
ela ions while none heless sending a clea
poli ical message.
D Yaşa Aydın is a esea che a SWP’s Cen e o Applied Tu kish S udies (CATS).
The Cen e o Applied Tu key S udies (CATS) is unded by
S i ung Me ca o and he Ge man Fede al Fo eign O ice.
This wo k is licensed
unde CC BY 4.0
This Commen e lec s
he au ho ’s iews.
The online e sion o
his publica ion con ains
unc ioning links o o he
SWP ex s and o he ele an
sou ces.
SWP Commen s a e subjec
o in e nal pee e iew, ac -
checking and copy-edi ing.
Fo u he in o ma ion on
ou quali y con ol p o-
cedu es, please isi he SWP
websi e: h ps://www.swp-
be lin.o g/en/abou -swp/
quali y-managemen - o -
swp-publica ions/
SWP
S i ung Wissenscha und
Poli ik
Ge man Ins i u e o
In e na ional and
Secu i y A ai s
Ludwigki chpla z 3–4
10719 Be lin
Telephone +49 30 880 07-0
Fax +49 30 880 07-100
www.swp-be lin.o g
[email p o ec ed]
ISSN (P in ) 1861-1761
ISSN (Online) 2747-5107
DOI: 10.18449/2025C20
(English e sion o
SWP-Ak uell 17/2025)
