Tooze, Adam
A icle
Towa ds he Nex Wo ld O de – Lessons om His o y
In e economics
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Tooze, Adam (2025) : Towa ds he Nex Wo ld O de – Lessons om His o y,
In e economics, ISSN 1613-964X, Pa adigm Publishing Se ices, Wa saw, Vol. 60, Iss. 5, pp. 257-260,
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ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e o Economics 257
Fo um
Adam Tooze*
Towa ds he Nex Wo ld O de – Lessons om
His o y
Wha migh a new wo ld o de look like and who will shape i ? Looking o he his o ical
p eceden o he B e on Woods sys em e eals how no ions o o de , secu i y and ai ness
we e in e wined wi h powe , hie a chy and agency. Con empo a y global challenges, om
geopoli ical ensions o China’s ise, demand a shi in pe spec i e. Ra he han seeking
ixed s uc u es, a en ion mus u n o con inuous p ocesses o wo ld o de ing, p ac ical
collabo a ion and s a egic engagemen in an inc easingly in e connec ed and con es ed
wo ld.
© The Au ho (s) 2025. Open Access: This a icle is dis ibu ed unde he
e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 4.0 In e na ional License
(h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/).
Open Access unding p o ided by ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e
o Economics.
* This ex is based on he keyno e speech deli e ed by Adam Tooze a
he Be lin Summi on 13 June 2025.
In e economics, 2025, 60(5), 257-260
JEL: F02; F50; N10
DOI: 10.2478/ie-2025-0050
Adam Tooze, Columbia Uni e si y, New Yo k, USA.
Wha a new wo ld o de will look like and who will be e-
sponsible o shaping i , a e ques ions wi hou simple
answe s. Ye i is possible o sugges some di ec ions in
which answe s migh lie.
B e on Woods: His o ical p eceden and
con empo a y my h
Any a emp o conju e up some hing like a new wo ld o -
de in i es e lec ion on an ea lie one, and he one es ab-
lished a he end o Wo ld Wa II o e s a p eceden . I is
he o de ha has been called he B e on Woods sys em,
which in 1944 shaped he map o he wo ld economy and
he in e na ional cu ency sys em h ough he e o s o
key, cha isma ic igu es, no ably Ha y Dex e Whi e o
he Uni ed S a es and John Mayna d Keynes o he Uni -
ed Kingdom.
The e is e en some hing o an obsession abou i . In 2024,
ma king he 80 h anni e sa y o he B e on Woods con-
e ence, he e was a su ge o mee ings on a new B e on
Woods. A he same ime, he e was he looming p ospec
o a dis up i e Republican p esidency. Bu e en unde
he Biden Adminis a ion, i was al eady clea ha despi e
he mos coope a i e A lan icis , globally minded g oup
o Democ a s, he e we e p o ound ensions in he wo ld
economy. The e was p essu e om he global sou h o
hink o a new sys em ha would wo k be e . Mo eo e ,
he ise o China and Russia’s agg ession we e pu ing
wha he Wes had aken o g an ed unde massi e p es-
su e. And now hings ha e u ned ou o be a mo e d a-
ma ic han an icipa ed las yea .
E en hose mos pessimis ic abou a T ump p esidency
could ha dly ha e p edic ed he simul aneous assaul on
he ading sys em in he mos cap icious and a bi a y
way, and a ai ly sys ema ic a ack on o eign in es men
and he alue o he dolla . In ligh o his, i migh seem
almos pe e se o ask he ques ion o why we migh be
looking o a new wo ld o de .
Bu wha do we mean by a “new wo ld o de ”? And why
is his concep so equen ly associa ed wi h he B e on
Woods momen ? Thinking like his is i sel his o ical, and
i epea edly clus e s a ound he e m “B e on Woods”.
A one le el, his clus e ing e lec s a se o hings one
alues: o de as opposed o diso de , in elligibili y e sus
chaos. The e is almos an aes he ic appeal o i . The B e -
on Woods sys em ga e he imp ession ha he economy
is b ough unde con ol, ul illing he d eam o somehow
making his opaque hing anspa en . The e is a p om-
ise o secu i y, and pe haps, o he wide popula ion, o
sa e y, a heme oday ha o en comes up in discussions
o populism.
The e is a p omise, i no o ac ual ai ness, hen o a ules-
based o de . The e is a unc ional claim ha a mo e p e-
dic able sys em boos s in es men , es ablishes secu i y
and educes unce ain y, which is suppo ed by econo-
me ic wo k. I also is an a gumen going back o Max
Webe in he Ge man social heo y adi ion. Bu he e is
some hing else ha is appealing abou he B e on Woods
In e economics 2025 | 5
258
Fo um
momen : he sense ha i was a momen o agency, when
sma ac o s came oge he o design a sys em in he ace
o his o ical chaos. I is also he sense o a momen o wis-
dom: ha i was no jus abou agency, bu agency ound-
ing o de , a o m o sel -cons aining agency. I was no a
muscula asse ion o in e es s s amped on he wo ld, bu
an agency willing o check i sel . This pe cep ion is wha
makes he B e on Woods momen so inspi ing.
A he heigh o hei powe s a he end o Wo ld Wa II, he
Uni ed Kingdom and he Uni ed S a es indeed decided o
build a sys em a he han simply impose hei will. These
a e no able i ues, ye he way hey clus e a ound B e -
on Woods, and he way ha B e on Woods con inues
o se e as a kind o o em o a com o blanke o hink-
ing abou in e na ional economics 80 yea s la e , b ings
o mind wha I ha e desc ibed as “ inancial ic ion”. One
migh jus as well call i a ai y ale.
Decons uc ing he B e on Woods my h
Fai y ales amously ha e many unc ions, bu hey a e no
sough o p ac ical ad ice unless he p oblem is a wol
d essed as a li le old lady. In a simila way, he B e on
Woods model calls o an examina ion no as a bluep in
bu a e e ence o unde s anding in e na ional economic
o de . This analysis can be s uc u ed h ough mul iple
pe spec i es: psychological, his o ical, poli ical-econom-
ic and philosophical.
F om a psychological pe spec i e, he appeal o B e on
Woods sugges s ha i se es as a collec i e ancho . Why
does discou se epea edly e u n o his ounda ional mo-
men , and wha does i pape o e ? One indica ion is he
misda ing o he con e ence: i is o en e e ed o as a
pos -wa ag eemen , whe eas in ac he ag eemen was
made be ween he D-Day landing and he So ie b eak-
h ough agains A my G oup Cen e in Ope a ion Bag a-
ion. This aming con ibu ed o he no ion o a bene o-
len Ame ican powe . B e on Woods hus p o ides a
simpli ied na a i e ha p esen s he Uni ed S a es as a
benign hegemon while obscu ing he o igin o Ame ican
au ho i y.
F om a his o ical pe spec i e, he implemen a ion o
B e on Woods was augh wi h disas e s. The con e -
ence in 1944 was ollowed by he UK cu ency c isis o
1947, which pos poned he implemen a ion o he sys-
em, and he Ma shall Plan, which was ac ually a plan B
o a oid ha ing o implemen B e on Woods. This was
ollowed by he de alua ion o s e ling and all o he Eu o-
pean cu encies in o de o make hem mo e compe i i e,
which was a huge shock o hei sys ems, and he es ab-
lishmen o he Eu opean Paymen s Union be ween 1950
and 1958. B e on Woods as o iginally concei ed was
no in oduced un il 1958, and i equi ed a mili a y c ew
and he ins alla ion o he Fi h Republic in F ance. I was
Jacques Rue ’s plan o secu e he con e ibili y o he
anc, coo dina ed wi h Cha les de Gaulle, ha enabled
F ance o join B e on Woods. By he ea ly 1960s, s ess
in he sys em necessi a ed he in en ion o swap lines as
he s icking plas e ha enabled i o su i e. By 1967,
B e on Woods had i s i s big business cycle p oblem,
and in 1971, US P esiden Richa d Nixon suspended
he gold con e ibili y o he dolla . B e on Woods can
ha dly be po ayed as a smoo hly unc ioning d i e o
pos wa g ow h.
F om he poli ical economy pe spec i e, his agil-
i y is ha dly su p ising. La ge-scale o ganisa ions o his
ype a e bese by wo ounda ional p oblems. Fi s , he
o iginal sin o such sys ems is ha powe ul ac o s bind
hemsel es o sha ed ules unde mining hei own so -
e eign y. Unsu p isingly, he Uni ed S a es, he dominan
playe in 1944, was only ligh ly bound by he sys em. The
Uni ed S a es e ained ex ao dina y au onomy. The dol-
la was pegged o gold and e e yone else’s cu encies
we e pegged o he dolla . The Ame icans ecei ed exo -
bi an p i ilege. The sys em s a ed when he Ame icans
said i s a ed, and i ended when he Ame icans said i
ended. Tha is he undamen al poli ics o he B e on
Woods o de .
Why would weake s a es ag ee o be pa o his sys em?
Because hey a e weak, powe less and esen ul. F om a
philosophical pe spec i e, in Nie zschean e ms, i is he
posi ion o subo dina ion, he posi ion o he Nie zschean
Ch is ians, who decided ha hey wan ed Ch is iani y
because i would p o ec hem. Subo dina e s a es, like
he powe less be o e he w a h o eal powe , sign up o
o de s gi en by cap icious majo powe s because o de s
and ules p o ide hem wi h some p o ec ion. Bu he eal
di icul y wi h esen ul subo dina es in such sys ems is
ha hei esen men is eal. The e lies he second oun-
da ional p oblem: subo dina e playe s wi hin ixed sys-
ems wi h dominan playe s a e always going o be sub-
jec o he isk o ee iding.
Ge many illus a es his. I o e he pas 80 yea s he e
has been a pe sis en , success ul ee iding smalle
playe wi hin a global sys em hegemonised by he Uni ed
S a es, i is Ge many. Wes Ge many in pa icula accu-
mula ed massi e su pluses unde B e on Woods in he
1960s, which placed s ain on he sys em and con ibu ed
o i s disin eg a ion, and has been accused o ee iding
unde NATO since he 1990s. Ge mans may a gue ha
sensible de ence policy was possible because hey we e
su ounded by iends. Bu om he Ame ican poin o
ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e o Economics 259
Fo um
iew, his looks like ee iding. And ha is he accusa ion
ha he US Adminis a ion has been making.
Ge many’s beha iou when i is powe ul ein o ces his
pe cep ion. In he 1970s, when o he s pushed he coun-
y o make he Deu sche Ma k a ese e cu ency, Bonn
and F ank u did e e y hing concei able o p e en ha
om happening. One s a egy o a oid ha was he c ea-
ion o he Eu opean Mone a y Union, dispe sing he
esponsibili y ac oss he eu ozone. Also, Ge many’s be-
ha iou du ing he eu o c isis has no been pe cei ed as
e y help ul.
O e he pas 80 yea s, Ge many has o en appea ed as
an uncoope a i e playe ha has been highly sel - igh -
eous, qui e success ul and e y bad a mac oeconomics.
A cen al challenge o any u u e global o de is he e-
o e o b ing Ge man mac oeconomic and economic dis-
cou se close in line wi h sha ed esponsibili ies, so ha
his pa e n does no con inue.
Con empo a y eali y: Wo ld o de s wo ld o de ing
Does oday appea o be a momen when people wan
o cons uc a global economic o de ? No su e. This is a
momen o disc e iona y iolence. I is a momen o dis-
c e iona y choices o dis up ion.
Pu in’s in asion o Uk aine, T ump’s ade wa and B exi
a e all d i en by hei sou ces o esen men , bu hese
esen men s do no de e mine he choices made. So, his
seemingly innocen ques ion abou who will wo k ou a
new wo ld o de is ac ually a e iginous oid. This is no a
momen o soo hing bed ime s o ies, bu o summon ou
wi s o su i e.
I is as hough we a e li ing inside a nigh ma ish ai y ale:
swallowed by he big bad wol , apped inside he s om-
ach, unce ain whe he he hun sman will come and cu
us ee. And in ha momen , we a e al eady d eaming
abou new o de s – bu he e is no new o de .
Does ha mean we ha e o abandon he i ues o o -
de – he es ained agency, he anspa ency, he ai -
ness, he unc ionali y? No, bu we ha e o change he
way in which we hink abou how he wo ld wo ks. Ra he
han seeking new ounda ional momen s, whe he B e -
on Woods, he Hamil onian momen o o he pi o al mo-
men s ha insc ibe hemsel es as ull s ops in his o y, we
need o ocus on con inuous sequences, ne wo ks o ac-
ion, ecu ing momen s o choice. We need o ocus on
conjunc u es a he han ounda ional momen s. Ra he
han cons i u ions and o de s. We migh need o conside
deals. Con amina ed hough he e m has become unde
T ump’s p esidency, a good deal in which wo sides can
see hei in e es s migh no be he wo s ou come.
Ra he han ocusing on wo ld o de s, we need o ocus
on wo ld o de ing. Ra he han s a ing om he p emise
ha he e is one wo ld ha is he same o e e yone, we
need o be hinking abou i om di e en poin s o iew.
And a he han elying on ules and cons i u ions o c e-
a e ce ain y and he possibili y o long- ange planning by
means o cons aining ou disc e ion, why no hink abou
common plans, p og ammes, poli ical commi men s,
scale o ac ion and cla i y o ision. We should be mo e in
he business o p oducing angible esul s and less con-
ce ned wi h wo ying abou no ms.
In a Eu opean con ex , all o his sounds amilia . We ha e,
a e all, been alking abou so e eign y o a while. So e -
eign y means he abili y o make you own ules. I exis s
in a dialec ical ela ionship wi h o de . The so e eign is he
one who decla es he excep ion, bu so e eign y also e-
qui es ecogni ion by o he so e eigns.
In ha con ex , we ha e also spoken abou s a egic
choice, alliances and deals as hings ha Eu ope needs o
ge in o he business o . The agonising u h is ha his is
bo h ob iously he igh answe and he igh way o wa d,
and ye i eels as hough i is being con inuously epea ed
wi hou esolu ion. While P esiden Mac on in 2017 an ici-
pa ed he challenges we con on now wi h s iking ele-
ance, hey ell in o a oid on he Ge man side.
We mus con on he sobe ing eali y: we ha e been he e
be o e; indeed, we ha e been he e o some ime. I we
a e s ill asking he same ques ions in 2025, we al eady
know he answe s. We see wha mus be done, bu we
will ei he no ac a all o ac oo la e. This ain has le
he s a ion.
The u u e o wo ld o de ing
Some wo y ha pe haps i is oo la e o he Uni ed
S a es o c ea e he new wo ld o de . I ind ha a qui e
plausible hough ho i ying hough . Wha I wo y abou
is ha i may be oo la e o Eu ope, oo, and in ha case,
whe e do we go nex ?
The answe is clea ly China. Bu saying his ou loud im-
media ely aises objec ions. To claim ha China is going
o c ea e he new wo ld o de is o isk being called a wa -
monge , because such claims p o ide jus i ica ion o an
expansion o Ame ican mili a y expendi u e.
A he same ime, he idea seems blindly un ealis ic. A e
all, who eally knows wha is going on in Beijing? The e
In e economics 2025 | 5
260
Fo um
is li le e idence ha China’s ambi ion is o c ea e an
Ame ican-s yle wo ld o de . This is simply no on Beijing’s
agenda.
This is why a shi in language is illumina ing. While China
may no be in he business o c ea ing a new Ame ican-
s yle wo ld o de , i is undeniably in he business o wo ld
o de ing. China is no jus inhe i ing he wo ld he Wes
made, including h ough impe ialism; i is ac i ely en-
gaged in eshaping i , o wo ld making.
This di e ence is mo e han me hodological, i helps us
o see be e . China in he la e 1990s e ec i ely c ea ed
a new B e on Woods au onomously by pegging i s cu -
ency in an unde alued way agains he dolla , a peg ha
is ha d o b eak. I has had many di icul side e ec s in
China i sel , bu China can manage hose. I is a way o
asse ing hei so e eign y wi hin his sys em. Chinese
expo s o he Uni ed S a es make up oughly 2.5% o
global ade. And i is no e en a apidly g owing pa o
his pie. Tha gi es you a sense o how diso ien ed ou
discou se has become.
Global ade is domina ed by wo key playe s: one la ge
block, which is EU ade wi hin, and a se ies o ne wo ks
a ound China, each one o which cons i u es a se o con-
nec ions, an ac o wo ld making, and an ac o wo ld o -
de ing ha we ha e o eckon wi h and ha will shape he
u u e. I you add up China’s o eign in es men , i s so
powe , i s echnological links, i s inc easing mili a y p es-
ence, does i add up o an Ame ican s yle new wo ld o -
de ? No, i clea ly doesn’ , bu ha is also a ed he ing.
We ha e o s op hinking in hose e ms.
Wha i does cons i u e is a policy o connec ion. I may
no be en i ely consis en , bu i is qui e delibe a e. And
he e a e mul iple di e en a ionales being de eloped in
Beijing ha o ganise and coo dina e hese di e en el-
emen s. I he e is one aspec o ha ha is eally qui e
ascina ing and new, i is he challenges o la ge na ions’
de elopmen on a global scale. This u u e ha is being
shaped is e y likely o be o med by playe s, no ably he
Chinese, o whom he ques ion abou la ge na ional de-
elopmen eally domina es he agenda. The EU, on he
o he hand, is a he ocused on ques ions ha a e pos -
na ional, medium-sized and conce n sus ainabili y.
The la ge na ional de elopmen agenda is he one ha
he key playe s, who a e cu en ly ac i ely building ou
sys ems, a e going o be engaged in. Righ now, we a e
all impa ien wi h China claiming s a us as a de eloping
economy. Bu unless we g asp ha de elopmen is he
ocus, we canno eally unde s and wha his p og amme
o wo ld making, o enewable ene gy, is abou . The hing
ha makes i no el is no ha i cons i u es an o de o
eplaces he US, bu ha i is ac ually abou he ealisa-
ion o a p og amme o de elopmen on he global scale,
ega dless o i s consequences, which a e spec acula
when we hink abou global en i onmen al imbalances,
and in e ms o shi ing he balance o powe going o -
wa d.
