Schulze, Paul; Mee ow, Sa a
A icle — Published Ve sion
Na iga ing c oss-scala challenges in adap ing o clima e
change: insigh s om wa e planning in he Phoenix
Me opoli an A ea
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Sp inge Na u e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Schulze, Paul; Mee ow, Sa a (2025) : Na iga ing c oss-scala challenges in
adap ing o clima e change: insigh s om wa e planning in he Phoenix Me opoli an A ea,
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change, ISSN 1573-1596, Sp inge Ne he lands,
Do d ech , Vol. 30, Iss. 7,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11027-025-10246-5
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/330236
S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen:
Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen
Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den.
Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle
Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich
machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen.
So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen
(insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en,
gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do
genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e.
Te ms o use:
Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal
and schola ly pu poses.
You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o
exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he
in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public.
I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en
Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise
u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence.
h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Recei ed: 15 Oc obe 2024 / Accep ed: 21 July 2025 / Published online: 14 Oc obe 2025
© The Au ho (s) 2025
Paul Schulze
[email p o ec ed]
1 Geog aphy Depa men , Humbold -Uni e si ä zu Be lin, Rudowe Chaussee 16,
12489 Be lin, Ge many
2 School o Geog aphical Sciences and U ban Planning, A izona S a e Uni e si y, Tempe, USA
3 P esen add ess: Depa men o Geog aphy, Uni e si y o Bonn, Meckenheime Allee 166,
53115 Bonn, Ge many
Na iga ing c oss-scala challenges in adap ing o clima e
change: insigh s om wa e planning in he Phoenix
Me opoli an A ea
PaulSchulze1,3 · Sa aMee ow2
Mi ig Adap S a eg Glob Change (2025) 30:65
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11027-025-10246-5
Abs ac
U ban egions globally ace inc easing challenges in main aining obus , eliable, and
sus ainable wa e sys ems in ligh o g owing clima ic and ins i u ional unce ain ies. D ough -
induced supply educ ions a e inc easingly conce ning, pa icula ly in a id egions such
as he sou hwes e n Uni ed S a es. This s udy c i ically examines adap i e wa e planning
in he Phoenix Me opoli an A ea (PMA) municipali ies, ocusing on he suscep ibili y o
Colo ado Ri e wa e supplies. D awing on a li e a u e e iew and in-dep h in e iews
wi h wa e planne s, we iden i y and analyze key adap a ion s a egies, ocusing on hei
pe cei ed ele ance, implemen a ion dynamics, and socio-poli ical cons ain s. Demand
educ ion, wa e euse and ecycling, and he eco e y o s o ed wa e c edi s eme ge as
cen al, albei une enly pu sued, s a egies, each playing ou ac oss di e en spa ial and
empo al scales. Howe e , ou indings highligh ha local adap a ion planning in he PMA
is shaped and cons ained by pe sis ing g ow h pa adigms, ins i u ional agmen a ion, and
complex basin-wide hyd oclima ic and poli ical unce ain ies su ounding clima e change
impac s, o e use, and he 2026 enego ia ion o Colo ado Ri e ope a ions. While PMA
municipali ies bene i om di e si ied wa e po olios, we a gue ha mo e an icipa o y
and ans o ma i e planning app oaches and adap a ion s a egies a e necessa y o na iga e
and adap o inc easingly compound and c oss-scala wa e isks.
Keywo ds U ban wa e planning · Clima e change adap a ion · Unce ain y · Adap a ion
s a egies · C oss-scala challenges
1 3
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
1 In oduc ion
Sa egua ding obus , eliable, and sus ainable wa e sys ems is a c i ical challenge o u ban
a eas wo ldwide. While wa e planne s mus na iga e socio- echnical sys em dynamics,
esou ce a iabili y, and land use and demand ajec o ies (Hu limann and Wilson 2018;
Hjo h and Madani 2023; C ozie e al. 2024), u u e unce ain ies a e signi ican ly
exace ba ed by he impac s o an h opogenic-induced clima e change (Kundzewicz e al.
2018; Asi e al. 2023). Complex, mul i-scala wa e isks, such as d ough -induced supply
sho ages, a e o inc easing conce n, pa icula ly in a id and high-consump i e egions such
as he sou hwes e n Uni ed S a es (US) (Udall and O e peck 2017; Schmid e al. 2023).
In his con ex , adi ional, wes e n-cen ic, and enginee ing-o ien ed planning app oaches
oo ed in assump ions o s a iona i y a e inc easingly seen as inadequa e o add essing
long- e m unce ain ies and inc easingly complex wa e sys em challenges (Milly e al.
2008; Hui e al. 2018). Ins ead, schola s call o mo e adap i e and dynamic pa adigms
capable o na iga ing a “p edic ably unp edic able” wo ld (Hjo h and Madani 2023, p.
2265, see also Pahl-Wos l 2015; Macphe son e al. 2024). In eg a ing he amewo k o
Clima e Change Adap a ion Planning (CCAP) in o wa e managemen is a gued o be e
equip planne s o an icipa e and espond o u u e isks o e ex ended empo al and spa ial
scales (Hu limann and Wilson 2018; Kau man and Hill 2021; Vinag e e al. 2023).
A cen al aspec o CCAP in ol es iden i ying and implemen ing s uc u al,
ins i u ional, ecological, o beha io al adap a ion s a egies ailo ed o local condi ions
(S ul s and Wood u 2017; Mee ow & Wood u 2020; Kau man and Hill 2021). In u ban
se ings, whe e wa e p o ision is o en go e ned by u ili ies, public–p i a e pa ne ships,
and egional o s a e ins i u ions (Wiechman e al. 2024), he de elopmen and e ec i e
implemen a ion o such s a egies equi e ins i u ional lexibili y and an icipa o y capaci y
(Pahl-Wos l 2006; Olms ead 2014; Moo e e al. 2024). Howe e , planne s mus also
na iga e socio-poli ical and echnical cons ain s such as budge a y limi a ions, pa h
dependencies, and he complex in e play o scales whe e hyd oclima ic unce ain ies and
aspec s o powe and go e nance shape wa e ou comes (Olms ead 2014; Mee ow and
Mi chell 2017; Macphe son e al. 2024).
The Phoenix Me opoli an A ea (PMA) exempli ies such ensions. Si ua ed in he a id
sou hwes e n US, he egion depends on a di e se wa e po olio, including wa e om
he Colo ado Ri e con eyed ia he Cen al A izona P ojec (CAP). Howe e , p olonged
d ough , s eam low declines, and o e alloca ion o i e esou ces ha e inc eased p essu e
on he Colo ado Ri e wa e supply (De inge e al. 2015; Schmid e al. 2023). A izona’s
CAP wa e holds junio p io i y1 wi hin he basin alloca ion scheme, and ecen sho age
decla a ions ha e igge ed a 30% educ ion in he s a e’s CAP deli e ies (Kuhn and Fleck
2019; CAP 2024). Mo eo e , cu en basin ope a ion guidelines expi e in 2026, and i is
unce ain wha alloca ions A izona will ecei e in he upcoming in e s a e nego ia ions
(commonly e med ‘Reconsul a ion’) o pos -2026 Colo ado Ri e ope a ions (Kuhn and
Fleck 2022; USBR 2023).
1 Junio p io i y wa e igh s holde s a e en i led o condi ionally di e and use wa e ou -o -p io i y ha
mo e senio con ac holde s lea e in he sys em. This is pa o he P io App op ia ion Sys em o wa e
igh s in he Sou hwes e n US, commonly e med “Fi s in Time, Fi s in Righ ” (see: h p s : / / c o l o a d o i e s
c i e n c e . o g / W a e _ l a w _ a n d _ p o l i c y).
1 3
65 Page 2 o 25
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
As he municipal CAP supplies in Cen al A izona has a highe p io i y han ha o
o he use s, especially ag icul u e, mos ci ies in he PMA ha e been una ec ed o only
minimally2 a ec ed by he s a e’s CAP supply educ ion (Gas élum and Cullom 2013;
A izona Wa e Bluep in 2024). Howe e , we a gue ha he complex hyd oclima ic and
hyd opoli ical mélange aises e e -mo e p essing ques ions abou long- e m CAP supply
eliabili y, which can be de ined as he municipal’s wa e planning p oblem. As u u e
sho ages loom, he e is an inc easing need o new planning app oaches and adap i e
s a egies ha can help municipali ies na iga e unce ain ies and po en ial u u e wa e
gaps, de ining he wa e planning aim. Such s a egies mus espond o hyd oclima ic
unce ain y as well as he ins i u ional, poli ical, and spa ial con igu a ions ha shape wa e
go e nance in he egion (see also Ri e a-To es and Ge lak 2021).
Owing o i s his o ically unsus ainable wa e planning egime, he PMA has ecei ed
conside able schola ly a en ion (e.g., Bolin e al. 2010; Gobe e al. 2010; La son e al.
2013b). Howe e , exis ing s udies on adap a ion s a egies in he egional wa e managemen
sys ems end o ocus on speci ic op ions, such as wa e conse a ion (La son e al. 2009;
Chhe i 2011) o ou doo wa e use (Yang and Wang 2017; Wang e al. 2021; Wang and
Vi oni 2022); o single municipali ies, such as Rich e and colleagues’ (2013) s udy on
conse a ion and wa e ecycling s a egies o he Ci y o Phoenix. O he s ha e examined
he ela ionship be ween land-use change and wa e demand (Sampson e al. 2020; Gilman
and Wu 2024) o he need o in eg a ed land-wa e planning (Gobe e al. 2013). Li le is
known abou how wa e planne s assess and p io i ize adap a ion s a egies in p ac ice o
how hei choices a e shaped by ins i u ional and budge a y cons ain s, planning pa adigms,
and he mul i-scala challenges o he Colo ado Ri e Basin. This s udy add esses ha gap.
B idging adap a ion esea ch and c i ical u ban s udies, we examine how wa e planne s in
PMA municipali ies app oach adap a ion in he ace o u u e CAP supply suscep ibili y,
paying pa icula a en ion o how ins i u ional, socio-poli ical, economic, and spa ial
condi ions media e hei s a egy choices. Th ough a quali a i e, in-dep h case s udy
g ounded in expe in e iews and li e a u e e iew, we aim o (i) shed ligh on how CAP-
ela ed unce ain ies in luence municipal wa e planning in he PMA; and (ii) con ibu e
o b oade deba es on he challenges o implemen ing an icipa o y and adap i e planning
as well as speci ic adap a ion s a egies in u ban wa e sys ems in ligh o he c oss-scala
challenges ha u ban wa e planne s ace in he 21s cen u y.
2 U ban planning o clima e change adap a ion
Clima e Change Adap a ion Planning (CCAP) can be concep ualized as an i e a i e h ee-
s age p ocess o adap i e planning, ac ion, and managemen (Fig. 1). In he adap i e ac ion
s age, app op ia e echnical, physical, beha io al, and p ocedu al s a egies a e iden i ied,
scheduled ac oss ime, and implemen ed h ough adap a ion p ojec s (Ca e e al. 2015;
Mee ow and Wood u 2020; Kau man and Hill 2021). Such ac ions can be u he
classi ied by in en , iming, empo al scope, spa ial scope, and ac o s in ol ed (Hu limann
and Wilson 2018; Kau man and Hill 2021). The de elopmen o a se o s a egies is
2 As pa o he con ingency measu es o s abilize he wa e le el o Lake Mead, some municipali ies ha e
olun a ily wai ed some po ion o hei CAP en i lemen s and supplies (in exchange o inancial compensa-
ion) (CAP 2024).
1 3
Page 3 o 25 65
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
ecommended (Kundzewicz e al. 2018; Roach e al. 2018) and should ideally le e age
co-bene i s such as clima e change mi iga ion (Mee ow and Wood u 2020). No e ha
‘s a egies’ is o en used in e changeably wi h ac ions, in e en ions, measu es, op ions,
o esponses.
In wa e planning, which is commonly unde s ood as ma ching supply wi h socio-
economic demand while add essing en i onmen al sus ainabili y (Walmsley and Pea ce
2010; He man e al. 2020), in eg a ing CCAP allows an icipa ion o long- e m unce ain ies
and nons a iona y ends o e long ime ho izons (Diaz and Yeh 2014; Hui e al. 2018).
Adap a ion s a egies a e ypically supply- o demand-o ien ed and aim o educe po en ial
u u e wa e gaps, ha is, he di e ence be ween supplies and demand (Roach e al.
2018; S aa sma e al. 2020; Elgendy e al. 2024). Such s a egies should con ibu e o he
de elopmen o obus and esilien wa e sys ems. These sys ems a e cha ac e ized by he
p ope managemen o esou ces and demand o ensu e long- e m sus ainabili y, main ain
se ices e en in eme gency si ua ions, an icipa e he impac s o clima e change, and mee
s akeholde expec a ions (S ul s and Wood u 2017; Lyle e al. 2023; Elgendy e al. 2024).
Local go e nmen s and wa e u ili ies a e a he o e on o adap a ion planning.
Regional clima e a iabili y necessi a es spa ially dis inc esponses (Diaz and Yeh
2014; Mee ow and Wood u 2020; Kau man and Hill 2021), and local go e nmen s a e
esponsible o esponding o ex eme e en s, mi iga ing clima e impac s, weighing ade-
o s, se ing policy goals, media ing be ween s akeholde s, and managing he logis ics o
adap a ion, including in as uc u e in es men (Gobe e al. 2010; Measham e al. 2011;
Diaz and Yeh 2014; Olms ead 2014; No dg en e al. 2016; Kau man and Hill 2021).
Howe e , u ban planne s a e equi ed o na iga e a high deg ee o unce ain y in bo h
hyd oclima ic sys ems and policy landscapes while balancing socioeconomic condi ions,
en i onmen al ade-o s, and egula o y o e sigh (Mee ow and Wood u 2020; S ul s
and La sen 2020; Ob inge and Whi e 2024). Planning in ol es complex ela ionships
among mul iple ac o s, and decisions o en hinge on socio-poli ical bounda y condi ions
and public pe cep ion, making CCAP a poli ical p ocess (E iksen e al. 2015; Mee ow and
Mi chell 2017; Macphe son e al. 2024).
Scale dependencies, a key ea u e o u ban planning in gene al (Se o e al. 2017), add
o hese endogenous wa e planning challenges. Gi en he ‘ luid’, ansbounda y na u e o
wa e low, many ci ies depend on c oss-scala lows, such as supply sou ces in moun ainous
headwa e s a beyond ci ies’ adminis a i e bo de s (Adge e al. 2005; S aa sma e al.
2020). Spa io- empo al in e linkages can c ea e misma ches, o example, when sho - e m
Fig. 1 Schema ic p ocess o clima e change adap a ion planning. Au ho s’ design, based on (Kau man
and Hill 2021)
1 3
65 Page 4 o 25
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
in e es s hinde long- e m planning decisions (Yo k e al. 2019). Addi ionally, u ban wa e
sys ems a e o en embedded in la ge -scale adminis a i e go e nance sys ems, whe e
basin-le el decisions impac ci y-le el wa e a ailabili y (Daniell and Ba e eau 2014;
Ri e a-To es and Ge lak 2021). These ‘ elecouplings’ (Liu e al. 2013; Mille e al. 2024)
signi ican ly complica e e ec i e planning o clima e change adap a ion bu , as we a gue,
a e highly ele an o explo e.
3 Ma e ials and me hods
3.1 S udy si e
The PMA, loca ed in he Sono an Dese o Cen al A izona, is an u ban agglome a ion
comp ising o e 20 municipali ies, including he ou p incipal ci ies o Phoenix, Mesa,
Sco sdale, and Tempe (Fig. 2). Abundan wa e a ailabili y, d i en by an enginee ed
augmen a ion pa adigm and he con e sion o highly wa e -in ensi e a mland o esiden ial
a eas, has suppo ed apid u ban expansion in ecen decades (La son e al. 2009; Bolin
e al. 2010; Gobe e al. 2013; Gilman and Wu 2024). Wa e a ailabili y also allows o
ege a ion-induced empe a u e mode a ion, he eby imp o ing he li abili y o he dese
clima e and p omo ing he sp awl o high-consump ion single- amily housing, wi h highe -
income a eas ea u ing mo e g een and blue spaces (La son e al. 2009; Wheele e al. 2020).
Fig. 2 Map o he Colo ado Ri e Basin (le ) and he Phoenix Me opoli an A ea ( igh ), including popu-
la ion, wa e sou ces, and demand in ac e- ee /yea . Fo da a Sou ce, see Table 1
1 3
Page 5 o 25 65
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
Following he s a e egula ion o g oundwa e (GW) o e use in he 1980s, su ace wa e 3
became c ucial o municipal wa e po olios (La son e al. 2009, 2013b). In 2022, he o al
municipal demand amoun ed o 1.2 million ac e- ee (ma ) y−1, o which app oxima ely one-
hi d was co e ed by CAP supplies (ADWR 2023). While wa e use has been ‘decoupled’
om u ban g ow h since he 1980s, p ima ily owing o dec easing pe -capi a use (Rich e e
al. 2020), cu en pe -capi a consump ion emains mo e han wice he na ional a e age and
has ecen ly inc eased in mos la ge municipali ies o he PMA (
Table 1, see also Cen e o he Fu u e o A izona 2024).
The PMA’s wa e sys em is highly agmen ed, wi h o e a hund ed la ge and small
p o ide s ope a ing ac oss he municipali ies, and di e se decision-making ac o s on
mul iple le els ha o en c ea e unclea and con lic ing goals (Gobe e al. 2010; La son e
al. 2013b; Gilman and Wu 2024). Local municipali ies and p i a e companies independen ly
egula e wa e use, p icing, and in as uc u e, leading o signi ican in e -municipal a ia ion
(Ouyang e al. 2014). This “uniquely a iega ed landscape o in a-u ban isk o u u e
wa e sca ci y” (Bolin e al. 2010, p. 11) ende s he PMA a p ime case o geog aphical
esea ch on c oss-scala challenges in u ban wa e sec o adap a ion.
Suscep ibili y o CAP supplies o u u e sho ages The Cen al A izona P ojec (CAP) is
a 336-mile aqueduc sys em ha deli e s A izona’s Colo ado Ri e wa e alloca ions o
use s in Cen al A izona (Fig. 2 see also Gas élum and Cullom 2013). To secu e ede al
unding in he 1960s, A izona ag eed o hold junio igh s in he basin alloca ion scheme
(Hanemann 2002; Kuhn and Fleck 2019). Alloca ions in he lowe basin a e unique in ha
hey a e ied o he wa e le el in he basin’s la ges ese oi , Lake Mead ( a he han, as
3 This includes Colo ado Ri e wa e deli e ed ia he Cen al A izona P ojec and wa e om he Sal and
Ve de Ri e s anspo ed ia he Sal Ri e P ojec (SRP) (Fig. 1).
Table1 Popula ion, o al demand, p opo ion o sou ces in wa e mix, and demand end as o 2020 o he
12 la ges ci ies in he PMA
Ci y Popula ion To al
demand
(ac e- ee
y−1)
Wa e mix Demand
end
2017-
2020i
CAP SRPiE luen ii G oundwa e iii
Phoenix 1,530.000 379.950 33% 45% 21% 1% Inc easing
Mesa 505,950 104.190 45% 32% 10% 13% Inc easing
Gilbe 262,920 65.340 56% 26% 14% 4% Inc easing
Chandle 262.150 87.620 13% 45% 31% 11% Inc easing
Sco sdale 232.300 100.230 76% 13% 8% 4% Sligh ly
inc easing
Glendale 229.990 47.400 45% 45% 6% 4% S agnan
Tempe 174.830 52.940 5% 65% 0 29% S agnan
Peo ia 159.620 36.700 54% 25% 19% 2% Inc easing
Queen C eek 92.130 23.850 2% 0 2% 96% Inc easing
A ondale 80.080 15.200 0 50% 46% 3% S agnan
Buckeye 58.290 10.470 0 0 92% 8% Inc easing
Goodyea 54.760 12.890 81% 0 11% 8% Inc easing
Sou ce: h ps://www.azwa e .go /ama/ama-da a (ADWR 2024). iSRP: Sal Ri e P ojec , u ili y p o ide
o su ace wa e om he Sal and Ve de Ri e s. ii E luen : ea ed was ewa e . iiiG oundwa e wi hd awal
is s a e- egula ed unde he 1980 G oundwa e Managemen Ac (La son e al. 2009). i Demand end om
2017–2020, es ima ed by he au ho s based on demand cu es
1 3
65 Page 6 o 25
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
B own (2017) igh ully no es, on he ‘heal h’ o he Colo ado Ri e i sel ). This sugges s
ha municipali ies in he PMA a e p edominan ly conce ned wi h de elopmen s in ese oi
ope a ions and he u u e wa e le el ajec o y in Lake Mead (CAP 2024).
In he pas decades, he Colo ado Ri e s eam low has dec eased by app oxima ely
15–20% compa ed wi h he a e age s eam low in he ea ly-20 h cen u y, which se ed as
he ounda ion o basin ope a ions and s a e alloca ions (USBR 2012; Lukas and Pay on
2020; Kuhn and Fleck 2022). These declines ha e been linked o p olonged d ough ,
compounded by in ensi ying clima e change impac s on p ecipi a ion pa e ns, e apo a ion,
and he hyd ology o moun ainous headwa e s (Udall & O e peck 2017; Milly and Dunne
2020; Bass e al. 2023; Schmid e al. 2023). Concu en ly, he Colo ado Ri e is hea ily
exploi ed, wi h s a e alloca ions exceeding he i e ’s a e age s eam low olume (USBR
2012; Rich e e al. 2024). Toge he , hese ac o s ha e esul ed in con inuously declining
ese oi le els, mos no ably in Lake Mead (Wheele e al. 2022; CAP 2024).
These ends a e expec ed o pe sis amid u he in ensi ying clima e change. In a ho e
and d ie u u e, mos hyd oclima ic models p edic a con inuing decline in Colo ado Ri e
s eam low, wi h median ou comes anging om 10 o 20% by mid-cen u y unde mode a e
emission scena ios (USBR 2012; Lukas and Pay on 2020; Woodhouse e al. 2021; Whi ney
e al. 2023). Addi ionally, an h opogenic and e apo a i e wa e demand is expec ed o
inc ease in a ho e and d ie u u e (O e peck and Udall 2020; Bass e al. 2023). Despi e
he CRB’s his o ically high hyd oclima ic a iabili y (Mu phy and Ellis 2019; McCabe e
al. 2024) and he emaining model unce ain ies and wide anges in model ou comes, i is
unlikely ha ese oi le els will subs an ially eco e in he long un (Schmid e al. 2023;
Rich e e al. 2024).
The end o con inuously dec easing wa e a ailabili y in an inc easingly a id basin is
“[…] obus , highly ce ain, and well-sui ed o in o ming policy choices”, as Udall and
O e peck (2017, p. 2413) no e. This no only challenges he en i e wa e go e nance sys em
in he Sou hwes e n US (Ri e a-To es and Ge lak 2021; Schmid e al. 2023) bu also
poses a pa icula conce n o A izona and municipali ies in he PMA. Owing o he s a e’s
junio igh s, cu en con ingency measu es o s abilize he wa e le el in Lake Mead ha e
p edominan ly impac ed A izona’s CAP alloca ions, dec easing supplies by app oxima ely
20% o da e (CAP 2024; A izona Wa e Bluep in 2024). Howe e , hese guidelines will
expi e in 2026, necessi a ing a enego ia ion p ocess ha will de e mine s a e alloca ions o
pos -2026 Colo ado Ri e ope a ions in an inc easingly wa me and d ie basin (O e peck
and Udall 2020; Ge lak e al. 2021; USBR 2023).
I is unclea wha ag eemen s he basin s a es will each o pos -2026 ope a ions and
how hese will a ec A izona’s CAP supplies and alloca ions o PMA municipali ies.
Howe e , coupled wi h he impac s o clima e change on he basin hyd ology and he
p obable inc eases in in e nal demand (De inge e al. 2015; Wang and Vi oni 2022), his
complex hyd opoli ical and hyd oclima ic mélange in oduces subs an ial unce ain ies,
ampli ying he suscep ibili y o wa e sys ems wi hin he PMA bo h o g adually declining
wa e a ailabili y and he isk o sho - e m supply dis up ions (Gas élum and Cullom
2013; Kuhn and Fleck 2019; CAP 2024). This p ospec unde sco es he need o iden i y,
implemen , o in ensi y sui able wa e managemen s a egies o an icipa e, plan o , and
adap o hese isks.
1 3
Page 7 o 25 65
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
3.2 Me hods
We employed a wo-s age esea ch design, combining a sys ema ic li e a u e e iew wi h
semi-s uc u ed in e iews. The li e a u e e iew ollowed he P e e ed Repo ing I ems
o Sys ema ic Re iews and Me a-Analyses (PRISMA, Page e al. 2021). Focusing on pee -
e iewed, academic li e a u e, we used he SCOPUS da abase4 and na owed ou sea ch
o a icles published om 2004–2024. The sea ch was pe o med in July 2024 and yielded
333 esul s, ou o which 49 a icles we e included in his s udy. The inclusion/exclusion
c i e ia o he sc eening e e ed o he applicabili y o he egion, he discussion o b oade
wa e planning challenges and adap a ions in he wa e sec o , and he explo a ion o one o
mul iple adap a ion measu es o s a egies (Fig. 3).
Semi-s uc u ed in e iews allowed us o cap u e planne s’ pe cep ions and iden i y
beha io al choices and challenges in wa e planning (see also Yin 2009). We conduc ed
in e iews wi h planne s in PMA municipali ies (n = 7) and expe s in egional ins i u ions
4 Sea ch e m ha has been issued: (TITLE-ABS-KEY (phoenix OR"cen al a izona"OR ma icopa AND u ban
OR municipal* OR ci y OR ci ies OR me opoli an AND wa e OR hyd olog*) AND PUBYEAR > 2003) AND
(LIMIT-TO (DOCTYPE,"a ")) AND (LIMIT-TO (LANGUAGE,"English.
Fig. 3 Me hodological amewo k employed in he s udy design and da a analysis, including PRISMA
amewo k lowcha and semi-s uc u ed in e iews
1 3
65 Page 8 o 25
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
4.2.3 O he s a egies
In e -municipal collabo a ion Cu en wa e challenges may p o ide oppo uni ies o sys-
emic changes in s akeholde ne wo ks, p omo ing mo e sus ainable esou ce use in he long
e m (Wi hycombe-Keele e al. 2015; Whi e e al. 2019). In he decen alized PMA, his
could in ol e s eng hening in e -municipal collabo a ion and wa e sys em planning. A
he ime o he s udy, se e al la ge municipali ies we e membe s o he A izona Municipal
Wa e Use s Associa ion (AMWUA) which ep esen s municipal in e es s a he s a e le el.
The e was b oad consensus on he bene i s o he AMWUA as a bounda y o ganiza ion, and
many in e iewees emphasized he need o expand such collabo a ion (IP1-4, IP8, IP10).
Bila e al coope a ion, such as c ea ing in e connec ed pipeline sys ems o es ablishing
eme gency wa e ans e ag eemen s, was also desc ibed as bene icial (IP8, IP10). How-
e e , hese e o s a e o en hinde ed by siloed bu eauc a ic and socio-poli ical s uc u es
(IP2). I emains unclea whe he e o s om planne s and u ili ies can d i e widesp ead
coope a ion, o whe he his emains a s a e-le el issue (IP3). The ela ionship be ween
municipali ies and s a e ac o s was desc ibed as being in need o imp o emen , wi h one
planne highligh ing he poli ical ba ie s o mo e e ec i e collabo a ion (IP10).
Decen alized wa e ha es ing Some s udies emphasize he po en ial o decen alized
s a egies (some imes e e ed o as g een s o mwa e in as uc u e o low-impac de elop-
men ) such as ainwa e ha es ing o inc ease wa e sus ainabili y (La son e al. 2013b;
Sampson e al. 2016). Howe e , he planne s did no discuss his, and he e ec i eness
o such s a egies emains unclea , gi en he egion’s e a ic and low p ecipi a ion le els
(app oxima ely 8 inches (20 cm) annually o Phoenix) (Mee ow e al. 2021). Despi e he
ela i ely limi ed amoun o s o mwa e in he egion, some ci ies do ha e ma e ials o p o-
g ams o p omo e g een s o mwa e in as uc u e (Ci y o Phoenix 2024).
Clima e change mi iga ion Wi h he inc easing impac o clima e change on wa e sys ems
in he sou hwes e n US, wa e planne s migh be in e es ed in enhancing clima e mi iga ion
e o s (Ma a and Budhoo am 2007; Mee ow and Wood u 2020). Fo example, Udall and
O e peck (2017) a gue ha in eg a ed wa e planning in he CRB mus add ess clima e
change mi iga ion o educe he isk o long- e m s eam low decline. In con as o he li e -
a u e, ou in e iew indings show ha hese discussions a e no in eg a ed wi hin municipal
depa men s in he PMA, and ha wa e planne s a e ypically no in ol ed in o mula ing
o implemen ing espec i e policies o plans, such as clima e ac ion plans (IP4, IP7, IP9).
5 Discussion
5.1 An icipa ion o new eali ies in PMA municipali ies
Ou explo a ion o wa e planning in PMA municipali ies highligh s he challenges in ans-
la ing Clima e Change Adap a ion Planning (CCAP) in o p ac icable ac ion. The unce ain y
planne s ace ega ding u u e CAP supplies necessi a es adap i e planning app oaches, and
he de elopmen o a ange o s a egies o inc ease sys em esilience and educe municipal
ulne abili y o po en ial wa e sho ages. While he di e si ied wa e mix has mi iga ed
1 3
Page 15 o 25 65
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
pas d ough impac s ( he eby suppo ing heo ies a ound sys em esilience whe e di e si i-
ca ion enhances a sys em’s abili y o abso b dis u bances, e.g. C ozie e al. 2024; Kundze-
wicz e al. 2018), u u e wa e sho ages emain a p essing conce n, and u ili ies in he PMA
a e explo ing se e al s a egies o add ess hose isks (Table 2).
Consis en wi h he li e a u e on clima e change adap a ion and wa e managemen in
u ban wa e sec o s (Measham e al. 2011; Hu limann and Wilson 2018; Vinag e e al. 2023),
we ind ha planned and ins i u ionalized s a egies domina e in he PMA. Speci ically, ou
esea ch emphasized he impo ance o bo h supply- and demand-side s a egies in wa e
adap a ion planning, he eby suppo ing indings in he li e a u e (e.g., Elgendy e al. 2024;
Roach e al. 2018; Sawassi and Khad a 2021; S aa sma e al. 2020). Howe e , s a egy
choices a e cons ained by he go e nance con ex , exis ing in as uc u e, demand pa e ns,
and inancial capaci ies. Ou s udy empi ically illus a es how wa e manage s in semi-a id,
highly consump i e, and apidly g owing egions ope a ionalize CCAP p inciples in he
ace o c oss-scala isks and compound unce ain ies. Speci ically, i con ibu es o a deepe
unde s anding o how supply-side op ions, demand-side cons ain s, and poli ical ade-o s
a e p io i ized o delayed, depending on local u ili y capaci ies, socio-poli ical p e e ences,
and ins i u ional pa h dependencies.
The eco e y o wa e banking c edi s ( h ough GW pumping) eme ged as he i s
esponse o acu e supply shocks. While hese c edi s p omise subs an ial supply olumes
o some u ili ies, he simul aneous eco e y by mul iple municipali ies could s ain aqui-
e s and h ea en land s abili y. This illus a es a po en ial misma ch be ween sho - e m
measu es and long- e m esou ce sus ainabili y (see also Yo k e al. 2019). Conse a ion is
widely ecognized as a c ucial s a egy bu is hinde ed by socio-poli ical ba ie s (Boye e
al. 2021). This e lec s b oade go e nance challenges in wa e managemen (Pahl-Wos l
2006; Hjo h and Madani 2023), whe e planne s mus na iga e u ban de elopmen ade-
o s, e enue losses, and public esis ance o demand educ ions. This migh ende conse -
a ion a pu ely eac i e s a egy, he eby delaying e ec i e implemen a ion. None heless,
planne s emphasized con inuous conse a ion as a e lec ion o a pe manen change in men-
ali y (IP10), os e ing a “[…] li es yle, a way o li ing in a dese en i onmen ha e lec s
knowledge and unde s anding o wa e as a sca ce esou ce” (IP5). This insigh ex ends
p io indings (Ob inge and Whi e 2024) by showing how conse a ion is no only a policy
mechanism bu also a cul u al na a i e ha wa e u ili ies in he PMA a e beginning o
ac i ely shape.
Wa e ecycling has eme ged as ano he highly ele an s a egy. Fo PMA municipali-
ies, was ewa e migh be “[…] one o he mos aluable esou ces o he u u e” (IP10).
This includes bo h sho - e m (e.g., non-po able uses, such as ou doo consump ion, and
wa e exchanges) and long- e m s a egies, such as di ec po able euse (DPR), indica ing
how u ili ies inc easingly iew was ewa e as a s a egy supply sou ce unde u u e sca ci y.
These indings o e a g ounded unde s anding o how DPR gains ac ion no only h ough
echnological easibili y, bu also h ough shi s in pe cep ion among planne s (see also Lyle
e al. 2023).
While he li e a u e on in eg a ed land-wa e planning (Gobe e al. 2011, 2013; Daniell
and Ba e eau 2014; Gilman and Wu 2024) emphasizes i s c i ical ole in add essing u ban
wa e s ess, ou in e iews e ealed signi ican ins i u ional and poli ical ba ie s ha limi
he ex en o which his can be implemen ed in he PMA. Las ly la ge-scale desalina ion
emains elusi e due o subs an ial echnical and inancial ba ie s. This s udy he eby empi -
1 3
65 Page 16 o 25
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
ically con i ms he gap be ween s a egic o esigh and p ac ical easibili y, which cha -
ac e izes adap i e wa e planning unde in as uc u al and ins i u ional cons ain s (e.g.,
Measham e al. 2011; Mee ow and Mi chell 2017; Wiechman e al. 2024).
5.2 Towa d adap i e planning in he PMA
Ou indings indica e a g owing awa eness o he need o long- e m planning and he
implemen a ion o adap a ion s a egies among planne s a PMA wa e u ili ies; howe e ,
di e gen expec a ions conce ning u u e CAP supply eliabili y e lec b oade challenges
o decision-making unde unce ain y, consis en wi h indings in he li e a u e (La son e
al. 2015; Hui e al. 2018). While some u ili ies ha e begun explo ing such app oaches, o h-
e s emain ancho ed o adi ional planning amewo ks, unde sco ing he egion's g adual
and une en adop ion o clima e change adap a ion p inciples and s a egies. Planne s ace
signi ican challenges in p epa ing o long- e m esilience, pa icula ly when hey ake in o
accoun wo s -case model unce ain ies which become g ea e he u he planne s look in o
he u u e. Ou con ibu ion he e lies in e ealing how unce ain y is no only a modeling
issue bu also a go e nance ba ie ha shapes he disc e iona y scope o planne s and isk
communica ion wi hin u ili ies.
While easily implemen able s a egies, such as unob usi e conse a ion goals and
indoo e o i s, a e al eady employed, u u e wa e sho ages will likely pose mo e com-
plex ques ions and decisions, e.g., enac ing manda o y demand educ ions. The eluc ance
among planne s o in e e e wi h esiden ial p e e ences and u ban de elopmen pa e ns
highligh s a undamen al ension be ween he egion’s g ow h-o ien ed economic pa adigm
and he need o mo e adap i e managemen o sa egua d long- e m wa e sus ainabili y.
Unsu p isingly, one planne no ed ha “[…] add essing g ow h h ough wa e planning is
no a pleasan con e sa ion in A izona” (IP5). This ension echoes indings in ea lie wo k
on wa e sus ainabili y in he PMA, such as by La son e al. (2009, 2013b), Bolin e al.
(2010), o Gobe e al. (2010).
This, we a gue, ea i ms ha clima e adap a ion is no me ely abou echnical s a egy
adop ion, bu also equi es enego ia ion o poli ical and de elopmen ajec o ies (Mee ow
and Mi chell 2017; Macphe son e al. 2024). I emains o be seen whe he PMA municipali-
ies will di ec ly o indi ec ly a o enginee ed solu ions ha migh isk in as uc u al lock-
ins, and whe he cu en planning p inciples will enable u ili ies o de elop he lexibili y,
esponsi eness, and an icipa o y capaci y equi ed o add ess complex u u e unce ain ies.
Mo e ans o ma ional adap a ion s a egies may in ol e undamen al changes o eco-
nomic pa adigms, de elopmen pa e ns, and ins i u ional s uc u es o achie e sus ainable
and equi able wa e sys ems in he PMA (e.g., Pahl-Wos l 2015; Shi and Mose 2021). This
pe spec i e aligns wi h b oade obse a ions ha wa e sca ci y o en esul s om go e -
nance ailu e a he han om esou ce limi a ions, hus in ol ing poli ical powe dynamics
and alloca ion p ac ices (Mee ow and Mi chell 2017; Pince l e al. 2019; Macphe son e al.
2024). As we ha e demons a ed o he PMA, such go e nance dynamics a e e lec ed in
e e yday planning dilemmas and hesi a ions, especially conce ning u ban g ow h manage-
men and demand es ic ions.
In addi ion o hese in e nal dynamics, ou s udy highligh s he scala dependencies
aced by wa e planne s in he PMA, which aligns wi h indings in he li e a u e (e.g.,
Adge e al. 2005; S aa sma e al. 2020; Mille e al. 2024). CAP supplies a e highly
1 3
Page 17 o 25 65
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
suscep ible no only o educ ions due o inc easing clima e-induced wa e s ess, bu also
o A izona’s junio p io i y in he Colo ado Ri e alloca ion scheme and he unce ain y
su ounding pos -2026 basin ope a ions. As such, as one planne no ed, “[…] one o he
bigges unce ain ies is how he s a e and how he egions espond o hese Colo ado Ri e
sho ages” (IP4).
These indings make a imely con ibu ion by si ua ing municipal planning e o s wi hin
he upcoming pos -2026 Colo ado Ri e nego ia ions. Ou esul s sugges ha local u ili-
ies mus an icipa e localized clima e impac s and plan in ela ion o unce ain and e ol ing
dis an hyd oclima ic de elopmen s, c oss-scala isks, and ins i u ional decision-making.
In his way, his s udy o e s policy- ele an insigh s ha can suppo egional planne s and
in e go e nmen al ac o s in he PMA, as well as o he a id egions wo ldwide acing u u e
wa e supply unce ain ies, o be e plan o , design, and implemen adap i e s a egies ha
accoun o c oss-scala dependencies and pa h-dependen suscep ibili ies.
5.3 S udy limi a ions and u he esea ch
Howe e , he s udy’s esul s equi e cau ious in e p e a ion due o se e al limi a ions.
The limi ed numbe o in e iews and he pu posi e sampling app oach cons ain he
gene alizabili y o he indings and may no ully ep esen he ull di e si y o s akeholde s
conce ned wi h he planning and implemen a ion o adap i e esponses in he wa e
managemen o he PMA. Speci ically, we did no engage e e y municipali y o mul iple
ep esen a i es om u ili ies, po en ially limi ing he ange o planning pe cep ions. The
ocus on la ge municipali ies may also o e look challenges and adap i e esponses speci ic
o smalle municipali ies. Mo eo e , he analysis excluded mas e plans, s a e policies, and
b oade ins i u ional documen s, as well as ex e nal in luences such as ede al policies and
in e s a e wa e nego ia ions, all o which could e eal addi ional adap a ion s a egies and
shape local wa e managemen . Finally, while we aimed o discuss challenges and ba ie s
o adap a ion s a egies comp ehensi ely, we could no del e deeply in o echnical enable s
o ba ie s ha could signi ican ly a ec he success o s a egies.
Despi e hese limi a ions, his esea ch con ibu es aluable explo a o y insigh s and
opens mul iple a enues o u he inqui y. Ou quali a i e esea ch app oach o e s a ich,
con ex ual unde s anding (Seamon and Gill 2016; Lim 2024) o how planne s na iga e he
ins i u ional, echnical, and beha io al complexi ies o u ban adap a ion planning. Fu u e
esea ch should in eg a e la ge , mo e di e se pa icipan pools and adop mo e ex ensi e
mixed-me hod designs ha may combine quali a i e dep h wi h quan i a i e sampling,
p obabilis ic designs, and s a is ical clus e analysis o s eng hen empi ical obus ness and
gene alizabili y. An in eg a ed analysis o planning documen s and ins i u ional p ocesses,
as concep ualized by Kau mann and Hill (2021), could also enhance he unde s anding o
how adap i e s a egies a e de eloped, implemen ed, and socially lea ned o e ime.
In ligh o inc easing wa e sca ci y and clima e isks in he sou hwes e n US (O e peck
and Udall 2020; Kuhn and Fleck 2022), unde s anding he complex, mul i-scala na u e o
u ban wa e adap a ion emains c i ical esea ch p io i y. Fu u e esea ch should emphasize
comp ehensi e me hodological amewo ks capable o cap u ing he socio-poli ical,
ecological, and echnical dimensions o adap a ion wi hin la ge and in e connec ed human–
en i onmen sys ems.
1 3
65 Page 18 o 25
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
6 Conclusions
The ou look o a ho e and d ie u u e in he sou hwes e n US, coupled wi h A izona’s
junio p io i y o Colo ado Ri e supplies and he unce ain ies a ound pos -2026 i e
ope a ions, poses inc easing isks o u u e Colo ado Ri e wa e supply eliabili y o
PMA municipali ies. These complex hyd oclima ic and hyd opoli ical unce ain ies equi e
wa e u ili ies o explo e and implemen adap a ion s a egies o mi iga e po en ial CAP
supply sho ages and ensu e long- e m wa e sys em eliabili y and sus ainabili y.
In his s udy, we wea e oge he he esul s o a li e a u e e iew and in e iews wi h
PMA wa e planne s o explo e adap a ion s a egies in he ace o hese challenges. By
b idging adap a ion esea ch and u ban s udies, we con ibu e o a g owing unde s anding
o how localized wa e adap a ion planning is shaped by i s b oade ins i u ional,
in as uc u al, and socio-poli ical con ex . Ou indings show ha while many
municipali ies in he PMA a e no ye di ec ly impac ed by supply cu s and bene i om
di e si ied po olios, planne s an icipa e heigh ened u u e wa e s ess and ecognize he
need o in es in bo h al e na i e supply and demand-side s a egies. A ange o s a egies,
di e ing in ele ance, in en , iming, and scope, a e being conside ed o a ying deg ees
by municipali ies and planne s in hei wa e u ili ies. Howe e , pe spec i es on long- e m
isk and app op ia e esponses a y ac oss municipali ies, e lec ing di e en le els o
ins i u ional p epa edness, poli ical suppo , and esou ce capaci y.
The eco e y o wa e banking c edi s eme ged as a p ominen sho - e m esponse
o po en ial supply shocks. In he medium- o long- e m, demand educ ions h ough
enhanced conse a ion e o s and inc eased use o ea ed was ewa e , ei he o non-
po able pu poses o ia DPR, a e seen as essen ial. Howe e , implemen ing hese s a egies
p esen s conside able challenges, including echnical limi a ions, ecological cons ain s,
and socio-poli ical sensi i i ies. Ou indings demons a e eluc ance among planne s o
implemen ac ions ha impac esiden ial li es yles, such as manda o y demand educ ions,
unde sco ing how wa e planning is cons ained by he egion’s long-s anding g ow h-
o ien ed, neolibe al socio-poli ical sys em (see also Bolin e al. 2010).
Mo eo e , we highligh how localized wa e planning and adap a ion e o s a e deeply
embedded in and cons ained by la ge -scale hyd ological and adminis a i e dynamics. CAP
supplies, which link he PMA o he CRB, depend on a complex in e play o hyd oclima ic
condi ions, basin demand, and ope a ional guidelines. Unce ain ies ega ding u u e
a ailabili y a e compounded by he unknown ou comes o he Reconsul a ion p ocess,
which in oduces u he ambigui y o A izona’s CAP supplies. In his con ex , some
planne s exp ess a p e e ence o wo king wi h conse a i e CAP expec a ions, a he
han elying on unce ain, poli ically nego ia ed ou comes – which was desc ibed by one
in e iewee as an annual “sho in he da k” (IP5).
Ensu ing esilien wa e sys ems amids hese unce ain ies emains a c i ical p io i y
in he PMA. While A izona’s legal and ins i u ional wa e go e nance amewo ks seem
o slowly adap o he eali ies o he 21s cen u y, many o he p e ailing esponses
emain inc emen al and eac i e. Long- e m planning may be challenging o a ela i ely
young egion. Ne e heless, i s his o ical expe ience in managing esou ce a iabili y and
unce ain y may also allow he municipali ies o add ess u u e challenges e ec i ely.
While he s a egies discussed in his s udy may con ibu e o imp o ing he esilience
o municipal wa e sys ems in he PMA in ligh o an unce ain u u e supply o Colo ado
1 3
Page 19 o 25 65
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
Ri e wa e , he e is a need o ques ion whe he he p e ailing inc emen al and eac i e
app oaches, pa icula ly ega ding demand op ions, a e su icien o add ess he p o ound
challenges ahead o whe he mo e ans o ma i e changes a e equi ed (see also Gobe e al.
2010; La son e al. 2015; Shi and Mose 2021). Fu u e esea ch should in es iga e how hese
s a egies a e implemen ed, hei con ibu ions o long- e m wa e sys em esilience, and
moni o he implica ions o he Reconsul a ion nego ia ions o A izona’s wa e planning.
Acknowledgemen s This wo k was suppo ed by a s uden s ipend om he Ge man Academic Exchange
Se ice. We a e g a e ul o D . Robe Ki zmann's con ibu ion o he s udy. We hank he pa icipa ing
PMA wa e planne s and egional expe s o hei insigh s and ime. Las ly, we hank Lindsay Loh , Maike
Schlebusch, and Maximilian Mölle o hei aluable commen s and edi o ial ad ice.
Au ho ’s con ibu ion Paul Schulze: Concep ualiza ion, Da a cu a ion, Fo mal analysis, Me hodology,
Visualiza ion, W i ing – o iginal d a , W i ing – e iew and edi ing. Sa a Mee ow: Concep ualiza ion,
Valida ion, W i ing – e iew and edi ing.
Funding Open Access unding enabled and o ganized by P ojek DEAL.
Da a a ailabili y The da a ( ansc ip s) ha suppo he indings o his s udy a e a ailable om he
co esponding au ho upon eques .
Decla a ions
Resea ch in ol ing human pa icipan s This esea ch in ol ed human pa icipan s.
In o med consen In o med consen has been gi en by all pa icipan s. The s udy design has been app o ed
by he Ins i u ional Re iew Boa d o he O ice o Resea ch In eg i y and Assu ance a he A izona S a e
Uni e si y.
Compe ing in e es The au ho s decla e ha hey ha e no known compe ing inancial in e es s o pe sonal
ela ionships ha could ha e appea ed o in luence he wo k epo ed in his pape .
Open Access This a icle is licensed unde a C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 4.0 In e na ional License,
which pe mi s use, sha ing, adap a ion, dis ibu ion and ep oduc ion in any medium o o ma , as long as
you gi e app op ia e c edi o he o iginal au ho (s) and he sou ce, p o ide a link o he C ea i e Commons
licence, and indica e i changes we e made. The images o o he hi d pa y ma e ial in his a icle a e
included in he a icle’s C ea i e Commons licence, unless indica ed o he wise in a c edi line o he ma e ial.
I ma e ial is no included in he a icle’s C ea i e Commons licence and you in ended use is no pe mi ed
by s a u o y egula ion o exceeds he pe mi ed use, you will need o ob ain pe mission di ec ly om he
copy igh holde . To iew a copy o his licence, isi h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/.
Re e ences
Adge WN, A nell NW, Tompkins EL (2005) Success ul adap a ion o clima e change ac oss scales. Glob
En i on Chang 15:77–86. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . g l o e n c h a . 2 0 0 4 . 1 2 . 0 0 5
ADWR (2023) The Colo ado Ri e : heading in o 2024 wi h hope o a mo e s able sys em. In: A izona
depa men o wa e esou ces. h p s : / / w w w . a z w a e . g o / n e w s / a i c l e s / 2 0 2 3 - 1 2 - 1 8. Accessed 23 Jun
2024
ADWR (2024) AMA da a. In: Ac i e managemen a ea. h ps://www.azwa e .go /ama/ama-da a. Accessed
25 Sep 2024
Ande ies JM, Smi h-Heis e s S, Eakin H (2020) Modeling in e dependen wa e uses a he egional scale o
engage s akeholde s and enhance esilience in Cen al A izona. Reg En i on Change 20:100. h p s : / / d o
i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 0 7 / s 1 0 1 1 3 - 0 2 0 - 0 1 6 5 4 - 1
1 3
65 Page 20 o 25
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
A izona Wa e Bluep in (2024) A izona Colo ado Ri e upda e. h p s : / / a z w a e b l u e p i n . a s u . e d u / n e w s / a i z o
n a - c o l o a d o - i e - u p d a e. Accessed 13 Jun 2024
Asi Z, Chen Z, Sadiq R, Zhu Y (2023) Clima e change impac s on wa e esou ces and sus ainable wa e
managemen s a egies in No h Ame ica. Wa e Resou Manage 37:2771–2786. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 0
7 / s 1 1 2 6 9 - 0 2 3 - 0 3 4 7 4 - 4
AWBA, ADWR, CAP (2021) Reco e y o wa e s o ed by he A izona wa e banking au ho i y - 2021
upda e. a join plan by AWBA, ADWR and CAP
Bailey J (2008) Fi s s eps in quali a i e da a analysis: ansc ibing. Fam P ac 25:127–131. h p s : / / d o i . o g /
1 0 . 1 0 9 3 / a m p a / c m n 0 0 3
Balling RC, Gobe P, Jones N (2008) Sensi i i y o esiden ial wa e consump ion o a ia ions in clima e:
an in au ban analysis o Phoenix, A izona. Wa e Resou Res 44:2007WR006722. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 .
1 0 2 9 / 2 0 0 7 W R 0 0 6 7 2 2
Bass B, Goldenson N, Rahimi S, Hall A (2023) A idi ica ion o Colo ado Ri e Basin’s snowpack egions has
d i en wa e losses despi e amelio a ing e ec s o ege a ion. Wa e Resou Res 59:e2022WR033454.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1029/2022WR033454
Bolin B, See ha am M, Pompeii B (2010) Wa e esou ces, clima e change, and u ban ulne abili y: a case
s udy o Phoenix, A izona. Loc En i on 15:261–279. h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/13549830903575604
Boye A-L, Le Lay Y-F, Ma y P (2021) Coping wi h sca ci y: he cons uc ion o he wa e conse a ion
impe a i e in newspape s (1999–2018). Glob En i on Chang 71:102387. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . g l o
e n c h a . 2 0 2 1 . 1 0 2 3 8 7
B own KP (2017) Wa e , wa e e e ywhe e (o , seeing is belie ing): he isibili y o wa e supply and he
public will o conse a ion. Na Cul 12:219–245. h ps://doi.o g/10.3167/nc.2017.120302
CAP (2024) Colo ado Ri e educ ions. In: Cen al A izona p ojec . h p : / / w w w . c a p - a z . c o m / w a e / w a e - s u p
p l y / a d a p i n g - o - d o u g h / c o l o a d o - i e - e d u c i o n s /. Accessed 23 Jun 2024
Ca e JG, Ca an G, Connelly A e al (2015) Clima e change and he ci y: building capaci y o u ban adap a-
ion. P og ess in Planning 95:1–66. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . p o g e s s . 2 0 1 3 . 0 8 . 0 0 1
Cen e o he Fu u e o A izona (2024) A izona pe capi a wa e use. Accessed 23 Jun 2024 h p s : / / w w w . a i
z o n a u u e . o g / p o g e s s - m e e s / n a u a l - e s o u c e s / w a e - u s e /
Chang H, Bonne e MR, S oke P C ow-Mille B, Wen z E (2017) De e minan s o single amily esiden ial
wa e use ac oss scales in ou wes e n US ci ies. Sci To al En i on 596:451–464. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0
1 6 / j . s c i o e n . 2 0 1 7 . 0 3 . 1 6 4
Chhe i NB (2011) Wa e -demand managemen : assessing impac s o clima e and o he changes on wa e
usage in Cen al A izona. J Wa e Clim Chang 2:288–312. h ps://doi.o g/10.2166/wcc.2011.017
Ci y o Phoenix (2024) G een s o mwa e in as uc u e - handbook o esiden s. h p s : / / w w w . p h o e n i x . g o
/ c o n e n / d a m / p h o e n i x / p d d s i e / d o c u m e n s / e s i d e n i a l - b u i l d i n g / g e e n - s o m w a e - i n a s u c u e - h a n d b o
o k . p d . Accessed 10 Jun 2025
C ozie A, Lence BJ, Weijs SV (2024) Resilience amewo k o u ban wa e supply sys ems planning. Sus-
ain Resilien In as uc 9:386–406. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 8 0 / 2 3 7 8 9 6 8 9 . 2 0 2 4 . 2 3 4 0 3 7 8
Dahe M, Ca é D, Ja amillo A e al (2017) Expe ience and meaning in quali a i e esea ch: a concep ual
e iew and a me hodological de ice p oposal. Fo um Qual Sozial o schung Fo um: Qual Soc Res
18(3). h ps://doi.o g/10.17169/FQS-18.3.2696
Dane FC (2009) E alua ing esea ch: me hodology o people who need o ead esea ch. Sage publica ions
Daniell KA, Ba e eau O (2014) Wa e go e nance ac oss compe ing scales: coupling land and wa e man-
agemen . J Hyd ol 519:2367–2380. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . j h y d o l . 2 0 1 4 . 1 0 . 0 5 5
Daymon C, Holloway I (2010) Quali a i e esea ch me hods in public ela ions and ma ke ing communica-
ions, 2nd edn. h ps://doi.o g/10.4324/9780203846544
De inge M, Udall B, Geo gakakos A (2015) Wes e n wa e and clima e change. Ecol Appl 25:2069–2093.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1890/15-0938.1
Diaz P, Yeh D (2014) Adap a ion o clima e change o wa e u ili ies. In: Wa e eclama ion and sus ainabil-
i y. Else ie , pp 19–56. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / B 9 7 8 - 0 - 1 2 - 4 1 1 6 4 5 - 0 . 0 0 0 0 2 - X
Dunn K (2000) In e iewing. In: Iain Hay, quali a i e esea ch me hods in human geog aphy. Ox o d Uni-
e si y P ess, Ox o d
Elgendy M, Hassini S, Coulibaly P (2024) Re iew o clima e change adap a ion s a egies in wa e manage-
men . J Hyd ol Eng 29:03123001. h ps://doi.o g/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6014
E iksen SH, Nigh ingale AJ, Eakin H (2015) Re aming adap a ion: he poli ical na u e o clima e change
adap a ion. Glob En i on Chang 35:523–533. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . g l o e n c h a . 2 0 1 5 . 0 9 . 0 1 4
Gabe J (2020) Quali a i e analysis o planning & policy: beyond he numbe s, 2nd edn. Rou ledge. h p s : /
/ d o i . o g / 1 0 . 4 3 2 4 / 9 7 8 1 3 5 1 1 7 9 6 1 4
Ga in M, C ona B, Wu ich A, Wes e ho P (2010) U ban e hnohyd ology: cul u al knowledge o wa e qual-
i y and wa e managemen in a dese ci y. E&S 15:a 36. h ps://doi.o g/10.5751/ES-03808-150436
1 3
Page 21 o 25 65
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
Gas élum JR, Cullom C (2013) Applica ion o he Colo ado Ri e simula ion sys em model o e alua e wa e
sho age condi ions in he Cen al A izona p ojec . Wa e Resou Manage 27:2369–2389. h p s : / / d o i . o
g / 1 0 . 1 0 0 7 / s 1 1 2 6 9 - 0 1 3 - 0 2 9 2 - 5
Ge lak AK, Jacobs KL, McCoy AL e al (2021) Scena io planning: emb acing he po en ial o ex eme
e en s in he Colo ado Ri e Basin. Clim Change 165:27. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s10584-021-03013-3
Gilman J, Wu J (2024) Iden i ying b oken linkages coupling wa e a ailabili y and d yland u baniza ion o
sus ainabili y: he case o he Phoenix me opoli an egion, USA. J En i on Manage 352:120097. h p s
: / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . j e n m a n . 2 0 2 4 . 1 2 0 0 9 7
Gobe P, Ki kwood CW (2010) Vulne abili y assessmen o clima e-induced wa e sho age in Phoenix. P oc
Na l Acad Sci U S A 107:21295–21299. h ps://doi.o g/10.1073/pnas.0911113107
Gobe P, Ki kwood CW, Balling RC e al (2010) Wa e planning unde clima ic unce ain y in Phoenix: why we
need a new pa adigm. Ann Assoc Am Geog 100:356–372. h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/00045601003595420
Gobe P, Wen z EA, Lan T e al (2011) Wa e sim: a simula ion model o u ban wa e planning in Phoenix,
A izona, USA. En i on Plann B Plann Des 38:197–215. h ps://doi.o g/10.1068/b36075
Gobe P, Middel A, B azel A e al (2012) T adeo s be ween wa e conse a ion and empe a u e amelio a ion
in Phoenix and Po land: implica ions o u ban sus ainabili y. U ban Geog 33:1030–1054. h p s : / / d o i
. o g / 1 0 . 2 7 4 7 / 0 2 7 2 - 3 6 3 8 . 3 3 . 7 . 1 0 3 0
Gobe P, La son KL, Quay R e al (2013) Why land planne s and wa e manage s don’ alk o one ano he
and why hey should! Soc Na Resou 26:356–364. h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/08941920.2012.713448
Gobe P, Sampson DA, Quay R e al (2016) U ban adap a ion o mega-d ough : an icipa o y wa e modeling,
policy, and planning o he u ban Sou hwes . Sus ain Ci ies Soc 27:497–504. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 /
j . s c s . 2 0 1 6 . 0 5 . 0 0 1
Hanemann M (2002) The Cen al A izona p ojec . UC Be keley: depa men o g icul u al and esou ce
economics. h ps://eschola ship.o g/uc/i em/87k436c
Ha lan SL, Yabiku ST, La sen L, B azel AJ (2009) Household wa e consump ion in an a id ci y: a luence,
a o dance, and a i udes. Soc Na Resou 22:691–709. h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/08941920802064679
He man JD, Quinn JD, S einschneide S e al (2020) Clima e adap a ion as a con ol p oblem: e iew and
pe spec i es on dynamic wa e esou ces planning unde unce ain y. Wa e Resou Res 56:e24389.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1029/2019WR025502
Hjo h P, Madani K (2023) Adap i e wa e managemen : on he need o using he pos -WWII science in
wa e go e nance. Wa e Resou Manage 37:2247–2270. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11269-022-03373-0
Hui R, He man J, Lund J, Madani K (2018) Adap i e wa e in as uc u e planning o nons a iona y hyd ol-
ogy. Ad Wa e Resou 118:83–94. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . a d w a e s . 2 0 1 8 . 0 5 . 0 0 9
Hu limann A, Wilson E (2018) Sus ainable u ban wa e managemen unde a changing clima e: he ole o
spa ial planning. Wa e 10:546. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/w10050546
Kau man N, Hill K (2021) Clima e change, adap a ion planning and ins i u ional in eg a ion: a li e a u e
e iew and amewo k. Sus ainabili y 13:10708. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/su131910708
Kelle AA, Su Y, Jassby D (2022) Di ec po able euse: a e we eady? A e iew o echnological, economic, and
en i onmen al conside a ions. ACS EST Eng 2:273–291. h ps://doi.o g/10.1021/acses engg.1c00258
Kuhn E, Fleck J (2019) The Uppe Basin, Lowe Basin, and Mexico: coexis ing on he pos -2026 Colo ado
Ri e . SSRN J. h ps://doi.o g/10.2139/ss n.3397951
Kuhn E, Fleck J (2022) “The consequences o he compac emains wi h us”: challenges and oppo uni ies o
he Colo ado Ri e Uppe Basin. SSRN J. h ps://doi.o g/10.2139/ss n.4094375
Kundzewicz ZW, K ysano a V, Benes ad RE e al (2018) Unce ain y in clima e change impac s on wa e
esou ces. En i on Sci Policy 79:1–8. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.en sci.2017.10.008
La son K, Gus a son A, Hi P (2009) Insa iable hi s and a ini e supply: an assessmen o municipal wa e -
conse a ion policy in g ea e Phoenix, A izona, 1980–2007. J Policy His 21:107–137. h p s : / / d o i . o g
/ 1 0 . 1 0 1 7 / S 0 8 9 8 0 3 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 0 5 8
La son K, Polsky C, Gobe P e al (2013a) Vulne abili y o wa e sys ems o he e ec s o clima e change
and u baniza ion: a compa ison o Phoenix, A izona and Po land, O egon (USA). En i on Manage
52:179–195. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s00267-013-0072-2
La son K, Wiek A, Wi hycombe Keele L (2013b) A comp ehensi e sus ainabili y app aisal o wa e go -
e nance in Phoenix, AZ. J En i on Manage 116:58–71. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . j e n m a n . 2 0 1 2 . 1 1 . 0 1 6
La son K, Whi e D, Gobe P, Wu ich A (2015) Decision-making unde unce ain y o wa e sus ainabili y and
u ban clima e change adap a ion. Sus ainabili y 7:14761–14784. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/su71114761
Lim WM (2024) Wha is quali a i e esea ch? An o e iew and guidelines. Aus alas Ma k J 33(2):199–229.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1177/14413582241264619
Liu J, Hull V, Ba is ella M e al (2013) F aming sus ainabili y in a elecoupled wo ld. Ecol Soc 18(2). h p s :
/ / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 5 7 5 1 / E S - 0 5 8 7 3 - 1 8 0 2 2 6
Luby IH, Polasky S, Swackhame DL (2018) U.S. u ban wa e p ices: cheape when d ie . Wa e Resou Res
54:6126–6132. h ps://doi.o g/10.1029/2018WR023258
1 3
65 Page 22 o 25
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
Lukas J, Pay on E (2020) Colo ado Ri e Basin clima e and hyd ology: s a e o he science. h p s : / / d o i . o g /
1 0 . 2 5 8 1 0 / 3 H C V - W 4 7 7
Lyle ZJ, VanB iesen JM, Sama as C (2023) D inking wa e u ili y-le el unde s anding o clima e change
e ec s o sys em eliabili y. ACS EST Wa e 3:2395–2406. h ps://doi.o g/10.1021/acses wa e .3c00091
Macphe son E, Cuppa i RI, Kagawa-Vi iani A e al (2024) Se ing a plu alis agenda o wa e go e nance:
why powe and scale ma e . WIREs Wa e 11(5):e1734. h ps://doi.o g/10.1002/wa 2.1734
Ma a LJ, Budhoo am J (2007) Complemen a i y be ween mi iga ion and adap a ion: he wa e sec o . Mi ig
Adap S a eg Glob Change 12:799–807. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11027-007-9100-y
McCabe GJ, Wolock DM, Gangopadhyay (2024) Pas and p ojec ed u u e d ough s in he Uppe Colo ado
Ri e Basin. Geophy Res Le e s 51(5). h ps://doi.o g/10.1029/2023GL107978
Measham TG, P es on BL, Smi h TF e al (2011) Adap ing o clima e change h ough local municipal plan-
ning: ba ie s and challenges. Mi ig Adap S a eg Glob Chang 16:889–909. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 0 7 / s 1
1 0 2 7 - 0 1 1 - 9 3 0 1 - 2
Mee ow S, Mi chell CL (2017) Wea he ing he s o m: he poli ics o u ban clima e change adap a ion plan-
ning. En i on Plan A 49:2619–2627. h ps://doi.o g/10.1177/0308518X17735225
Mee ow S, Wood u SC (2020) Se en p inciples o s ong clima e change planning. J Am Plann Assoc
86:39–46. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 8 0 / 0 1 9 4 4 3 6 3 . 2 0 1 9 . 1 6 5 2 1 0 8
Mee ow S, Na a ajan M, K an z D (2021) G een in as uc u e pe o mance in a id and semi-a id u ban
en i onmen s. U ban Wa e J 18:275–285
Mille SJ, Dee LE, Hayden MT e al (2024) Telecoupled sys ems a e ewi ed by isks. Na Sus ain 7:247–
254. h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s41893-024-01273-2
Milly PCD, Dunne KA (2020) Colo ado Ri e low dwindles as wa ming-d i en loss o e lec i e snow ene -
gizes e apo a ion. Science 367:1252–1255. h ps://doi.o g/10.1126/science.aay9187
Milly PCD, Be ancou J, Falkenma k M e al (2008) S a iona i y is dead: whi he wa e managemen ? Sci-
ence 319:573–574
Milman A, Bonnell C, Magui e R e al (2021) G oundwa e echa ge o wa e secu i y. Case S ud En i on
5:1113999. h ps://doi.o g/10.1525/cse.2020.1113999
Moo e M-L, Wang-E landsson L, Bodin Ö e al (2024) Mo ing om i o i ness o go e ning wa e in he
an h opocene. Na Wa e 2:511–520. h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s44221-024-00257-y
Mu phy KW, Ellis AW (2019) An analysis o pas and p esen megad ough impac s on a mode n wa e
esou ce sys em. Hyd ol Sci J 64(1):45–65. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 8 0 / 0 2 6 2 6 6 6 7 . 2 0 1 9 . 1 5 7 1 2 7 4
Napie alski J, Sulich C, Taylo A, D aus P (2022) Mapping he link be ween ou doo wa e oo p in and
social ulne abili y in Me o Phoenix, AZ (USA). Landsc U ban Plann 226:104498. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 .
1 0 1 6 / j . l a n d u b p l a n . 2 0 2 2 . 1 0 4 4 9 8
No dg en J, S ul s M, Mee ow S (2016) Suppo ing local clima e change adap a ion: whe e we a e and whe e
we need o go. En i on Sci Policy 66:344–352. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.en sci.2016.05.006
O’Neill BF, Boye A-L (2023) “Locking in” desalina ion in he U.S.-Mexico bo de lands: pa h dependency,
echno-op imism and clima e adap a ion. Wa e Al e n 16(2)
Ob inge R, Whi e DD (2024) Simula ing socio-hyd ological esponses o clima ic condi ions in Phoenix,
A izona. J Am Wa e Resou Assoc 60:380–391. h ps://doi.o g/10.1111/1752-1688.13191
Olms ead SM (2014) Clima e change adap a ion and wa e esou ce managemen : a e iew o he li e a u e.
Ene gy Econ 46:500–509. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.005
Ouyang Y, Wen z EA, Ruddell BL, Ha lan SL (2014) A mul i-scale analysis o single- amily esiden ial wa e
use in he Phoenix Me opoli an A ea. J Am Wa e Resou Assoc 50:448–467. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 1 1 1
/ j a w . 1 2 1 3 3
O e peck JT, Udall B (2020) Clima e change and he a idi ica ion o No h Ame ica. P oc Na l Acad Sci U
S A 117:11856–11858
Page MJ, McKenzie JE, Bossuy PM e al (2021) The PRISMA 2020 s a emen : an upda ed guideline o
epo ing sys ema ic e iews. BMJ n71. h ps://doi.o g/10.1136/bmj.n71
Pahl-Wos l C (2006) T ansi ions owa ds adap i e managemen o wa e acing clima e and global change.
Wa e Resou Manage 21:49–62. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11269-006-9040-4
Pahl-Wos l C (2015) Wa e go e nance in he ace o global change. Sp inge . h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 0 7 / 9 7
8 - 3 - 3 1 9 - 2 1 8 5 5 - 7
Pince l S, Po se E, Mika KB e al (2019) Adap ing u ban wa e sys ems o manage sca ci y in he 21s cen-
u y: he case o Los Angeles. En i on Manage 63:293–308. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s00267-018-1118-2
Rice J, Wu ich A, Whi e DD, Wes e ho P (2016) Compa ing ac ual de ac o was ewa e euse and i s public
accep abili y: a h ee ci y case s udy. Sus ain Ci ies Soc 27:467–474. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . s c s . 2 0 1
6 . 0 6 . 0 0 7
Rich e BD, Abell D, Bacha E e al (2013) Tapped ou : how can ci ies secu e hei wa e u u e? Wa e Policy
15:335–363. h ps://doi.o g/10.2166/wp.2013.105
1 3
Page 23 o 25 65
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change (2025) 30:65
Rich e BD, Benoi K, Dugan J e al (2020) Decoupling u ban wa e use and g ow h in esponse o wa e
sca ci y. Wa e 12:2868. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/w12102868
Rich e BD, Lamsal G, Ma s on L e al (2024) New wa e accoun ing e eals why he Colo ado Ri e no
longe eaches he sea. Commun Ea h En i on 5:134. h ps://doi.o g/10.1038/s43247-024-01291-0
Ri e a-To es M, Ge lak AK (2021) E ol ing oge he : ansbounda y wa e go e nance in he Colo ado
Ri e Basin. In En i on Ag eemen s 21:553–574. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s10784-021-09538-3
Roach T, Kapelan Z, Ledbe e R (2018) A esilience-based me hodology o imp o ed wa e esou ces
adap a ion planning unde deep unce ain y wi h eal wo ld applica ion. Wa e Resou Manage
32:2013–2031. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11269-018-1914-8
Sahe R, S ephen H, Ahmad S (2022) Role o u ban landscapes in changing he i iga ion wa e equi emen s
in a id clima e. Geosciences (Basel) 13:14. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/geosciences13010014
Saldaña J (2014) Coding and analysis s a egies. In: Lea y P (ed) The ox o d handbook o quali a i e
esea ch. Ox o d uni e si y p ess, pp 580–598
Sampson DA, Quay R, Whi e DD (2016) An icipa o y modeling o wa e supply sus ainabili y in Phoenix,
A izona. En i on Sci Policy 55:36–46. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.en sci.2015.08.014
Sampson DA, Cook EM, Da idson MJ e al (2020) Simula ing al e na i e sus ainable wa e u u es. Sus ain
Sci 15:1199–1210. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11625-020-00820-y
Sawassi A, Khad a R (2021) Bibliome ic ne wo k analysis o “Wa e Sys ems’ Adap a ion o Clima e
Change Unce ain ies”: concep s, app oaches, gaps, and oppo uni ies. Sus ainabili y 13:6738. h p s : / /
d o i . o g / 1 0 . 3 3 9 0 / s u 1 3 1 2 6 7 3 8
Schmid JC, Yackulic CB, Kuhn E (2023) The Colo ado Ri e wa e c isis: i s o igin and he u u e. Wi es
Wa e 10:e1672. h ps://doi.o g/10.1002/wa 2.1672
Seamon D, Gill HK (2016) Quali a i e app oaches o en i onmen -beha io esea ch: unde s anding
en i onmen al and place expe iences, meanings, and ac ions. In: Gi o d R (ed) Resea ch me hods o
en i onmen al psychology, 1s edn. Wiley, pp 115–135
Se o KC, Golden JS, Albe i M, Tu ne BL (2017) Sus ainabili y in an u banizing plane . P oc Na l Acad Sci
U S A 114:8935–8938. h ps://doi.o g/10.1073/pnas.1606037114
Shi L, Mose S (2021) T ans o ma i e clima e adap a ion in he Uni ed S a es: ends and p ospec s. Science
372:eabc8054. h ps://doi.o g/10.1126/science.abc8054
S aa sma M, D ooge s P, Hunink J e al (2020) Global o egional scale e alua ion o adap a ion measu es
o educe he u u e wa e gap. En i on Model So w 124:104578. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . e n s o . 2
0 1 9 . 1 0 4 5 7 8
S ul s M, La sen L (2020) Tackling unce ain y in US local clima e adap a ion planning. J Plann Educ Res
40:416–431. h ps://doi.o g/10.1177/0739456X18769134
S ul s M, Wood u SC (2017) Looking unde he hood o local adap a ion plans: shedding ligh on he ac ions
p io i ized o build local esilience o clima e change. Mi ig Adap S a eg Glob Chang 22:1249–1279.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11027-016-9725-9
Sulli an A, Whi e D, La son K, Wu ich A (2017) Towa ds wa e sensi i e ci ies in he Colo ado Ri e Basin:
a compa a i e his o ical analysis o in o m u u e u ban wa e sus ainabili y ansi ions. Sus ainabili y
9:761. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/su9050761
Udall B, O e peck J (2017) The wen y- i s cen u y Colo ado Ri e ho d ough and implica ions o he
u u e. Wa e Resou Res 53:2404–2418. h ps://doi.o g/10.1002/2016WR019638
USBR (2012) Colo ado Ri e Basin wa e supply and demand s udy. Execu i e Summa y. Uni ed S a es
Bu eau o Reclama ion. h p s : / / w w w . u s b . g o / w a e s m a / b s p / d o c s / i n a l e p o / C o l o a d o R i e / C R B S _
E x e c u i e _ S u m m a y _ F I N A L . p d
USBR (2023) CR pos -2026 ope a ions. Bu eau o eclama ion. h p s : / / w w w . u s b . g o / C o l o a d o R i e B a s i n /
p o s 2 0 2 6 / i n d e x . h m l. Accessed 29 Feb 2024
Vinag e V, Fidélis T, Luís A (2023) How can we adap oge he ? B idging wa e managemen and ci y
planning app oaches o clima e change. Wa e 15:715. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/w15040715
Walmsley N, Pea ce G (2010) Towa ds sus ainable wa e esou ces managemen : b inging he s a egic
app oach up- o-da e. I ig D ain Sys 24:191–203. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s10795-010-9100-z
Wang Z, Vi oni ER (2022) Indi idualized and combined e ec s o u u e u ban g ow h and clima e change
on i iga ion wa e use in Cen al A izona. J Am Wa e Resou Assoc 58:370–387. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1
1 1 1 / 1 7 5 2 - 1 6 8 8 . 1 3 0 0 5
Wang C, Tu ne VK, Wen z EA e al (2021) Op imiza ion o esiden ial g een space o en i onmen al
sus ainabili y and p ope y app ecia ion in me opoli an Phoenix, A izona. Sci To al En i on
763:144605. h p s : / / d o i . o g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . s c i o e n . 2 0 2 0 . 1 4 4 6 0 5
Wen z EA, Gobe P (2007) De e minan s o small-a ea wa e consump ion o he ci y o Phoenix, A izona.
Wa e Resou Manage 21:1849–1863. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11269-006-9133-0
1 3
65 Page 24 o 25
