Ayhan, Sinem H.; Lehmann, Ha mu ; Pelek, Selin
A icle — Published Ve sion
Job c ea ion and job des uc ion in Tu key
Eu asian Economic Re iew
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Sp inge Na u e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ayhan, Sinem H.; Lehmann, Ha mu ; Pelek, Selin (2025) : Job c ea ion and
job des uc ion in Tu key, Eu asian Economic Re iew, ISSN 2147-429X, Sp inge In e na ional
Publishing, Cham, Vol. 15, Iss. 3, pp. 741-773,
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Eu asian Economic Re iew (2025) 15:741–773
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s40822-025-00321-2
Abs ac
This pape analyzes Tu key’s labo ma ke dynamics om 2006 o 2021 h ough job
low analysis o adminis a i e da a om all non- inancial i ms egis e ed wi h so-
cial secu i y ins i u ions. We speci ically examine how i m cha ac e is ics in luence
employmen dynamics o e business cycles, wi h ou analysis co e ing key e en s
such as he 2008 global ecession, he 2018 cu ency c isis, and he ini ial phase o
he COVID-19 pandemic. Ou esul s indica e a highly dynamic labo ma ke , wi h
g oss job ealloca ion a es anging om 34 o 44%, compa able o hose o o he
eme ging economies bu highe han a es in Anglo-Saxon and ansi ion coun ies.
The high a es o excess job ealloca ion in Tu key sugges subs an ial eshu ling
wi hin he job s uc u e, especially in he cons uc ion sec o , whe e job c ea ion
pe sis ence is no ably low. A simila pa e n is obse ed among low- echnology and
low- o-medium- echnology manu ac u ing i ms, which exhibi highe ealloca ion
a es. Mic o- i ms a e he p ima y d i e s o job c ea ion and des uc ion, wi h
hese a es declining as i ms g ow la ge o olde . While exposu e o in e na ional
compe i ion appea s ele an , wi h impo in ensi y nega i ely associa ed wi h job
c ea ion and posi i ely wi h job des uc ion, no sys ema ic link is ound be ween
expo in ensi y and job ealloca ion a es.
Keywo ds Job c ea ion · Job des uc ion · Fi m cha ac e is ics · Adminis a i e
da a · Tu key
JEL E24 · J08 · J23 · J63 · L25 · L26
Recei ed: 10 No embe 2024 / Re ised: 19 Ma ch 2025 / Accep ed: 8 May 2025 /
Published online: 6 June 2025
© The Au ho (s) 2025
Job c ea ion and job des uc ion in Tu key
Sinem H.Ayhan1· Ha mu Lehmann2· SelinPelek3
Ex ended au ho in o ma ion a ailable on he las page o he a icle
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Eu asian Economic Re iew (2025) 15:741–773
1 In oduc ion
Job ealloca ion h ough job c ea ion and des uc ion by i ms is c ucial o enhancing
economic e iciency and g ow h by op imizing esou ce alloca ion and boos ing p o-
duc i i y. P oduc i i y imp o emen s a e d i en by wo p ima y ac o s: job c ea ion
by e icien i ms and job des uc ion concen a ed in less e icien ones, as no ed by
Robe s and Tybou (1997). While he ela ionship be ween esou ce ealloca ion and
p oduc i i y gains is well-es ablished in he li e a u e,1 he b oade dynamics o labo
ma ke adjus men s—pa icula ly in esponse o economic cycles— emain unde ex-
plo ed, especially ou side indus ialized coun ies. The job c ea ion and des uc ion
a es, hei esponsi eness o mac oeconomic luc ua ions, and hei link o unem-
ploymen ends a e key aspec s ha wa an deepe in es iga ion.
This s udy aims o ex end he unde s anding o job ealloca ion dynamics in
eme ging economies, wi h a pa icula ocus on Tu key, which he IMF (2023) clas-
si ies as an eme ging and middle-income coun y. Tu key p esen s an in e es ing case
due o i s economic ola ili y, cha ac e ized by pe iods o apid g ow h ollowed by
sha p down u ns. These economic luc ua ions ha e signi ican implica ions o labo
ma ke adjus men s, making Tu key an ideal se ing o analyzing job lows o e
business cycles.2 Using an adminis a i e da ase co e ing all non inancial p i a e
en e p ises om 2006 o 2021, his s udy examines how job low dynamics in e -
ac wi h business cycles ac oss di e en i m a ibu es and how i m cha ac e is-
ics—such as size, age, echnology le el, and exposu e o in e na ional ade—shape
employmen dynamics and job ealloca ion pa e ns.
Empi ical e idence om de eloping coun ies —including A gen ina, Chile,
Colombia, Mexico, and Mo occo— sugges s ha job u no e a es a e ema kably
high, o en exceeding hose obse ed in he U.S., whose labo ma ke is o en con-
side ed a benchma k due o i s lexible and ib an na u e (Cho e al., 2017; Fló ez
e al., 2021; Hal iwange e al., 2014; Robe s & Tybou , 1997). The e is also some
e idence on ansi ion economies pe aining o he i s decade o ansi ion, which
consis en ly p oposes a lowe deg ee o job ealloca ion compa ed o indus ialized
coun ies (see, e.g., Faggio & Konings, 2003; Konings e al., 1996, Konings e al.,
2003; Acquis i & Lehmann, 2000; B own & Ea le, 2002). Howe e , exis ing s ud-
ies o en do no emphasize he cyclical na u e o job lows and how hey ela e o
b oade economic condi ions, such as unemploymen luc ua ions du ing ecessions
and eco e ies3. This s udy aims o pa ially ill ha gap.
Ou s udy con ibu es o he li e a u e on job lows in se e al ways. Fi s , unlike
mos exis ing s udies, which ocus p ima ily on manu ac u ing —a sec o gene ally
less dynamic— ou analysis co e s all non- inancial sec o s, p o iding a mo e com-
p ehensi e pic u e o job ealloca ion in he economy. Hijzen e al. (2010) show ha
1 See, e.g., Robe s and Tybou (1997) o an o e iew o he ea ly pe inen li e a u e. A mo e ecen
s udy by Goswami (2022) examines he ela ionship be ween p oduc i i y g ow h and job ealloca ion
in India.
2 See Ayhan e al. (2023), he discussion pape e sion o u he de ails abou he Tu kish economy.
3 Goswami and Paul (2024) highligh he same poin and examine job ealloca ions in India. Unlike
ou pape , hey ocus solely on he manu ac u ing sec o and show ha , om he global inancial c isis
onwa d, job c ea ion declined while job des uc ion emained cons an .
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Eu asian Economic Re iew (2025) 15:741–773
including se ices signi ican ly inc eases es ima ed job ealloca ion a es in he U.K.,
highligh ing he impo ance o b oade sec o al co e age. Second, by le e aging a
long ime span, we analyze labo ma ke dynamics du ing bo h s able pe iods and
economic shocks, including he 2008 global inancial c isis, he 2018 domes ic cu -
ency c isis, and he ini ial phase o he COVID-19 pandemic. Thi d, while p io
esea ch p ima ily ocuses on i m size and, in he case o ansi ion economies, own-
e ship ype, ou s udy inco po a es a wide ange o i m a ibu es, including ade
exposu e and echnology le el, wo key ac o s ha shape job lows bu ha e ha dly
been explo ed.
Ou es ima es o job lows unde sco e he exis ence o a dynamic labo ma ke in
Tu key, wi h annual g oss job ealloca ion a es anging om 34% in 2007 o 44%
in 2021. These igu es align wi h a es in de eloping coun ies like Chile, Colombia,
and Mo occo, su pass hose in Anglo-Saxon economies, and a e subs an ially highe
han in ansi ion coun ies. Ou indings also unde sco e he s ong cyclicali y o job
ealloca ion in Tu key, wi h job des uc ion ising sha ply du ing down u ns and job
c ea ion ebounding in eco e y phases. Du ing bo h he 2008 and 2018 ecessions,
unemploymen ose by app oxima ely 3% poin s, ye he pe sis ence o job lows
esponded di e en ly in each case. The 2018 c isis exhibi ed a s onge coun e -cycli-
cal pa e n, wi h job c ea ion pe sis ence d opping o i s lowes eco ded le el and
job des uc ion pe sis ence peaking, signalling a p olonged labo ma ke adjus men .
Simila ly, ou analysis o sec o al job lows e eals s ong p o-cyclical employmen
pa e ns, wi h job des uc ion a es peaking in ecessions and job c ea ion accele a ing
du ing eco e ies. The magni ude o hese shi s, howe e , a ies ac oss indus ies,
wi h he cons uc ion sec o expe iencing ex eme ola ili y while he se ices sec o
shows ela i ely milde luc ua ions. The mining sec o , in con as , exhibi s lowe
sensi i i y o business cycles, unde sco ing he he e ogeneous na u e o job ealloca-
ion ac oss sec o s. The sec o al composi ion o job lows u he e eals di e en ial
impac s o ecessions: while he 2008 c isis p ima ily a ec ed manu ac u ing, he
2018 c isis had a mo e p onounced e ec on cons uc ion and ene gy-in ensi e indus-
ies, which a e mo e ulne able o domes ic inancial ins abili y.
Mo eo e , ou esul s highligh he ole o i m a ibu es in job low dynamics.
The exis ing li e a u e, p ima ily om de eloped Anglo-Saxon economies such as
Canada, he U.S., and he U.K., documen s an in e se ela ionship be ween i m size
and ne employmen g ow h (e.g., Baldwin e al., 1998; Hal iwange e al., 2014;
Heyman e al., 2019; Hijzen e al., 2010; Lawless, 2014; Neuma k e al., 2011). How-
e e , Da is e al. (1996) a gue ha la ge i ms, a he han small ones, con ibu e he
mos o job c ea ion and he du abili y o c ea ed jobs. S udies on de eloping coun-
ies u he con i m ha job lows a e highe o small i ms (e.g., Fló ez e al., 2021;
Goswami & Paul, 2024; Ma e al., 2015; A ou i e al., 2016).
A pa allel s and o esea ch examines how business cycles in e ac wi h job low
dynamics ac oss i m a ibu es. E idence sugges s ha ecessions disp opo iona ely
impac young and small i ms, ye s a -ups con inue o con ibu e posi i ely o ne
employmen g ow h (C iscuolo e al., 2014; Goswami & Paul, 2024). La ge i ms,
on he o he hand, exhibi a s ong nega i e co ela ion be ween ne job c ea ion and
agg ega e unemploymen , a ela ionship much weake o smalle i ms (Mosca ini &
Pos el-Vinay, 2012). Job ealloca ion also appea s o be p o-cyclical in high-income
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Eu asian Economic Re iew (2025) 15:741–773
coun ies, wi h high-wage i ms expanding mo e in up u ns (Hijzen e al. 2024) and
low-p oduc i i y, low-wage i ms shedding mo e jobs in down u ns (Be heau e al.
2020). In de eloping economies, smalle es ablishmen s a e mo e sensi i e o eco-
nomic luc ua ions, as seen in B azil (C a o, 2011), while in Spain, he ela ionship
be ween i m size and job s abili y s eng hened du ing he inancial c isis (Nago e
Ga cía & an Soes , 2017).
In line wi h he b oade li e a u e, we also ind ha small i ms exhibi highe job
u no e a es, e en when accoun ing o age and o he ac o s. Howe e , he Tu k-
ish con ex e eals a c i ical dis inc ion: Mic o- i ms d i e employmen g ow h bu
also ace lowe job pe sis ence, e lec ing he ins abili y o employmen in smalle
en e p ises. Simila ly, low- echnology indus ies con ibu e mos o job c ea ion and
job des uc ion in Tu kish manu ac u ing, ye hei high excess job ealloca ion a es
ela i e o hose o high- echnology i ms sugges a e y agile employmen s uc-
u e cha ac e ized by low p oduc i i y and high employmen ola ili y.
Ou esul s u he highligh how i m cha ac e is ics in luence esilience o eco-
nomic shocks. Fi ms wi h highe ade exposu e exhibi g ea e pos -c isis eco e y,
likely bene i ing om in e na ional demand di e si ica ion, whe eas domes ically
ocused i ms expe ience sha pe declines in job c ea ion and s onge inc eases in
job des uc ion du ing down u ns. Simila ly, high- ech i ms display g ea e s abili y
in job low a es compa ed o medium- ech and low- ech i ms, which su e mo e
signi ican employmen losses du ing ecessions. These pa e ns sugges ha ex e nal
ma ke in eg a ion and echnological capaci y p o ide c ucial bu e s agains mac-
oeconomic ola ili y. Unlike he exis ing li e a u e, we do no ind a dis inc ion in
esponse o economic shocks ac oss i m sizes, as all size ca ego ies exhibi a com-
mon cyclical pa e n. Howe e , consis en wi h ea lie s udies, s a -ups appea o be
a ec ed di e en ly, expe iencing a sha pe inc ease in job des uc ion a es ahead o
he 2018 down u n and a much as e and mo e p onounced ebound in job c ea ion
a es ollowing he global inancial c isis.
By in eg a ing i m cha ac e is ics wi h business cycle dynamics, his s udy p o-
ides a mo e comp ehensi e unde s anding o how job lows e ol e o e ime in
an eme ging economy. Ou indings sugges ha he pe sis ence o job c ea ion and
des uc ion is no only d i en by i m a ibu es bu is also deeply in e wined wi h
mac oeconomic luc ua ions, ein o cing he need o policies ha enhance labo
ma ke esilience du ing economic down u ns.
The emainde o he pape is o ganized as ollows: The nex sec ion p esen s ou
da a sou ces and discusses hei s eng hs and weaknesses, ollowed by a p esen a-
ion o he job low measu es ha a e s anda d in he li e a u e. Sec ion 3 p esen s
ou esul s, s a ing o wi h he job lows o he en i e economy, hen u ning o ou -
comes by egion, and inally honing in on a ba e y o esul s linked o i m a ibu es.
Sec ion 4 discusses he pe sis ence in he jobs c ea ed and he jobs des oyed in he
Tu kish economy. The inal sec ion p o ides some conclusions.
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Eu asian Economic Re iew (2025) 15:741–773
2 Da a and measu es
2.1 Da a
The empi ical analysis u ilizes a six een-yea panel da ase o all non inancial p i-
a e i ms and hei employees egis e ed in he adminis a i e eco ds o he Tu k-
ish economy. The da abase is cons uc ed by he Minis y o Science, Indus y, and
Technology (MoSIT), which compiles adminis a i e da ase s om a ious public
ins i u ions. These di e en da a sou ces ha e been in eg a ed in o he En ep e-
neu In o ma ion Sys em (EIS), esul ing in a panel co e ing he yea s 2006–2021
(MoSIT, 2023).
The main da a sou ce o acking job lows is he Business Regis e s, ocusing
on he en e p ise as he uni o obse a ion. Following he common p ac ice in he
li e a u e, we exclude he sel -employed, namely one-pe son en e p ises om he
analysis gi en ha hey a e no conside ed a i m ha by de ini ion g ows and con-
ac s by he hi ing and i ing o dependen wo ke s (Bu gess e al., 2000; Fló ez
e al., 2021; Hijzen e al., 2010). Wi h an app oxima ely one-million inc ease om
2006, he numbe o i ms in ou sample eaches 2.1 million by 2021.4 The i m-le el
da a includes yea ly in o ma ion on he yea o es ablishmen geog aphical loca ion
(NUTS1 le el), and economic sec o (4-digi ISIC and NACE e 2), as well as qua -
e ly in o ma ion on he numbe o employees.
The EIS da abase combines basic i m cha ac e is ics wi h in o ma ion on he
echnology le el om he MoSIT and o eign ade s a emen s om he Minis y
o T ade. The echnology in o ma ion, epo ed only o he manu ac u ing sec o ,
delinea es ou ca ego ies o low-, medium-low, medium-high, and high- ech i ms
based on he ISIC Re .3 classi ica ion (OECD, 2011). The o eign ade s a emen s
p o ide in o ma ion on he ype, quan i y, and alue o impo s and expo s. How-
e e , his in o ma ion e e s o ade in goods only.
The EIS da abase is one o he pionee ing da ase s, no only among eme ging
economies bu also in indus ialized coun ies. I s ichness, ex ensi e panel du a-
ion, and comp ehensi e co e age o he en i e economy and all en e p ises make
i unique. Ne e heless, i also has some limi a ions. Fi s , he EIS only p o ides
in o ma ion on egis e ed i ms. An exi om he da a may be ei he due o i m clo-
su e o because he i m con inues i s ope a ions wi hou egis e ing wi h he social
secu i y sys em (Aca e al., 2019).5 The implica ion o d opping ou o he panel
o a wo ke is o become non-employed (i.e., unemployed, o inac i e) o o ansi
in o in o mal (i.e., un egis e ed) employmen . The sha e o in o mal employmen in
Tu key is no negligible. As o Decembe 2021, abou 28% o o al sala ied employ-
men is in o mal and he a io is eco ded as 18.3% in he non-ag icul u al sec o
(TURKSTAT, 2022b). Since he e is no in o ma ion on in o mal employmen in he
EIS da a, when he e is a mo emen om o mal o in o mal employmen , a sho cu
4 See Table 1 in he discussion pape e sion o a mo e de ailed discussion o he da ase .
5 Fi m in o mali y is no as widesp ead as labo in o mali y in Tu key. Me ely 4% o i ms a e es ima ed
o be un egis e ed, which is signi ican ly lowe when compa ed o he app oxima ely 30% o in o mal
employmen (Gulek, 2022).
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Eu asian Economic Re iew (2025) 15:741–773
app oach would be o assume a ansi ion in o non-employmen . Conside ing he
ela i ely high sha e o in o mal employmen , his app oach is likely o esul in a
downwa d bias in job- o-job ansi ions (Akgündüz e al., 2019). On he o he hand,
Tansel and Aca (2017) examine labo ma ke ansi ions in Tu key using he Su ey
o Income and Li ing Condi ions (SILC) panel da a se . They documen a subs an-
ially low ansi ion p obabili y om o mal o in o mal employmen (3 o 5%) when
compa ed o he p obabili y o 7 o 14% lowing in o non-employmen and abou 80
o 90% o s aying in o mal employmen ac oss he ou -yea panel pe iod ha hey
ha e a hei disposal.6
Ano he limi a ion o he EIS da a is ha i does no co e employees in he pub-
lic sec o . Gi en he possibili y o inding a job in he public sec o , his limi a ion
cons i u es a po en ial sou ce o upwa d bias in ansi ions be ween employmen and
non-employmen as in he case o in o mal wo ke s. Using he 2018–2021 SILC
panel da a, we examine he p obabili ies o job- o-job ansi ions be ween p i a e and
public employmen . Only 4% o public employees epo ed being in a di e en job
in he p e ious yea . Addi ionally, ansi ion a es om public o p i a e sec o s (and
ice e sa) a e ound o be ex emely low wi h less han 2%. Gi en hese indings,
he downwa d bias in job- o-job mobili y due o lows in o public employmen is no
expec ed o be a wo isome issue o he cu en analysis.7
2.2 Measu es o job lows
Following Da is and Hal iwange (1992) he ne employmen g ow h a e o a i m
be ween -1 and is de ined as:
g
i =
n
i
−n
i −
1
1
/
2(
n
i +
n
i −1)
(1)
whe e
ni
e e s o he employmen o i m i a ime . Di iding he employmen
change by a e age employmen cons ains he g ow h a e
gi
o he in e al [-2, 2],
whe e − 2 e e s o i m exi and 2 o i m en y.
The a e o job c ea ion (des uc ion) is de ined as he employmen -weigh ed sum
o all posi i e (nega i e) ne g ow h a es in a g oup j unde in es iga ion, whe e j can
ela e o he economic sec o , egion, i m size ca ego y, i m age g oup, o he en i e
economy. The employmen weigh is simply he sha e o i m i in o al employmen
o he g oup
j
, equal o he a io o :
6 Using he ecen wa es o he same SILC panel da ase , we calcula e he p obabili y o mo ing om
o mal o in o mal employmen . Fo he yea s 2016–2021, his p obabili y anged be ween 3 and 5%,
con i ming he indings o Tansel and Aca (2017).
7 In line wi h ou indings, Akgündüz e al. (2019) seek o comp ehend he ex en o bias in he EIS da a
by examining annual job- o-job ansi ions. They u ilize he 2016 Household Labo Fo ce Su ey, which
con ains e ospec i e in o ma ion on labo ma ke s a us o cu en and p e ious yea s, and documen
ha only 5% o public sec o employees and 19% o p i a e sec o employees we e employed in a di -
e en job. No ably, he majo i y o job- o-job ansi ions in he Tu kish labo ma ke happen wi hin he
p i a e sec o , wi h abou ou - i hs o hese ansi ions occu ing be ween wo wage-ea ne jobs.
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Eu asian Economic Re iew (2025) 15:741–773
x
i
Xj
=
n
i
+n
i −
1
∑i∈Ij
(ni +ni
−
1)
whe e
Ij
is he se o i ms in a g oup
j
a ime . Adhe ing o he o iginal no a ion
by Da is and Hal iwange (1992) we can w i e he job c ea ion a e
POSj
and job
des uc ion a e
NEGj
in g oup j a ime as:
POS
j =
∑
i
∈
I+
j
(
xi
X
j )
.gi and NEGj =
∑
i
∈
I−
j
(
xi
X
j )
.
|
gi
|
(2)
whe e
I+
and
I−
a e he subse s o expanding/en e ing and con ac ing/exi ing
i ms, espec i ely, and he job des uc ion a e is exp essed in absolu e alue.
The g oss job ealloca ion a e
GROSSj
is de ined as he sum
POSj +NEGj
,
while he ne change o employmen also known as he ne ealloca ion a e
NETj
is gi en by he di e ence
POSj −NEGj
. The g oss and ne job ealloca ion
a es can be deemed as uppe and lowe bounds o he wo ke ealloca ion a e
equi ed o accommoda e job ealloca ion (Da is & Hal iwange , 1992; Hijzen e
al., 2010). In addi ion, we in oduce he excess job ealloca ion a e,
EXCESSj =
GROSSj −|NETj |,
o measu e he numbe o job ealloca ions in excess o he
amoun equi ed o accommoda e ne employmen g ow h.
Finally, we a e in e es ed in he pe sis ence o jobs c ea ed and o jobs des oyed.
As de ined by Da is and Hal iwange (1992), he a e o one-yea pe sis ence in job
c ea ion is he ac ion o newly c ea ed jobs in yea ha con inue o be p esen in
yea + 1. The wo-yea pe sis ence a e is he ac ion o newly c ea ed jobs in yea
ha a e p esen in bo h yea + 1 and yea + 2. We can analogously de ine pe sis ence
a es o job c ea ion wi h he ime ho izon going u he in o he u u e. The one-
yea pe sis ence a e o job des uc ion is de ined as he ac ion o newly des oyed
jobs in yea ha do no eappea in yea + 1. The wo-yea pe sis ence a e o job
des uc ion is de ined as he ac ion o newly des oyed jobs in yea ha do no
eappea in yea + 1 and yea + 2. Again, we can analogously ex end his de ini ion
o yea s u he in o he u u e.
Adhe ing o he no a ion by Hijzen e al. (2010), he pe sis ence a e (
p
) is cal-
cula ed as
pi,x =(ni, +x−ni, −1)/(ni, −ni, −1)
, whe e
x
s ands o he leng h
o pe sis ence in yea s and spans he se
{1,2, ... , 5}.
The pe sis ence a es o
des oyed jobs can shed ligh on he ex en o which job des uc ion leads o sho -
o long- e m joblessness, while he pe sis ence a es o c ea ed jobs can indica e
whe he he placemen o wo ke s in o new jobs is pe manen o ansien (Da is &
Hal iwange , 1992).
3 Resul s
3.1 Job lows in he en i e economy
Table 1 displays annual a es o job c ea ion (POS) and job des uc ion (NEG), ne
employmen g ow h (NET), job ealloca ion (GROSS), and he excess job ealloca-
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ion (EXCESS) o he en i e economy du ing he pe iod 2006–2021. The annual
a es p esen ed in he able a e based on he ou h qua e - o- ou h qua e employ-
men changes ha unde lie he annual job c ea ion and des uc ion measu es while
Figu e A1 in he online appendix shows annual job low a es based on o he qua e s.
The annual job c ea ion a e anges be ween 14% and 23% o o al employmen ,
while he job des uc ion a e exhibi s g ea e a iabili y, luc ua ing be ween 15%
and 27% ac oss he yea s. I is no ewo hy ha bo h i m en y and exi con ibu e
signi ican ly o job ealloca ions. App oxima ely 30% o i ms expe ience no g ow h,
ye a ound one- ou h o ne employmen g ow h can be a ibu ed o he e ec s o
i m en y and exi (see Figu es A2-A4 in he appendix).
Annual low a es do no cap u e in a-yea ansi ions. We, he e o e, also analyze
job c ea ion and des uc ion a es on a qua e ly basis, as shown in Fig. 1.8 The o igi-
nal qua e ly low a es, calcula ed based on he ne change in employmen om one
qua e o he nex , a e app oxima ely hal he magni ude o hei annual coun e pa s.
Since he cumula i e qua e ly low a es o e a yea exceed he annual a e, his sug-
ges s ha some ound- ipping occu s wi hin he yea ly span. The highe equency
o qua e ly da a esul s in g ea e luc ua ions and a mo e p onounced seasonali y
pa e n, pa icula ly in he job c ea ion a e. We consis en ly obse e peaks in he job
8 In Fig. 1, he smoo hed solid lines ep esen seasonally adjus ed job c ea ion and job des uc ion a es,
using a ou -qua e cen e ed mo ing a e age ( o seasonally adjus , e.g., he qua e ly job c ea ion a e
we use he o mula: JC
adj
=JC
−
2+JC
−
1+JC
+JC
+1
4)
, while he dashed lines show he o iginal
se ies. The shaded a eas indica e he ecession pe iods du ing he 2008 global inancial c isis and he
2018 local cu ency c isis.
Table 1 Annual job low a es
Job c ea ion Job des uc ion
POS En y Expans. NEG Exi Con . GROSS NET EXCESS
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
2007 0,193 0,062 0,131 0,204 0,073 0,131 0,397 -0,011 0,386
2008 0,215 0,074 0,140 0,191 0,078 0,114 0,406 0,024 0,382
2009 0,186 0,064 0,123 0,206 0,083 0,123 0,392 -0,019 0,373
2010 0,233 0,079 0,154 0,157 0,065 0,092 0,390 0,076 0,314
2011 0,234 0,079 0,155 0,156 0,065 0,091 0,390 0,078 0,313
2012 0,229 0,083 0,146 0,179 0,074 0,105 0,408 0,050 0,358
2013 0,210 0,071 0,139 0,196 0,081 0,115 0,406 0,014 0,392
2014 0,211 0,072 0,139 0,196 0,082 0,115 0,408 0,015 0,393
2015 0,230 0,079 0,150 0,187 0,076 0,111 0,417 0,043 0,374
2016 0,181 0,062 0,119 0,223 0,090 0,133 0,403 -0,042 0,361
2017 0,214 0,089 0,124 0,173 0,066 0,108 0,387 0,040 0,346
2018 0,173 0,061 0,112 0,268 0,111 0,157 0,441 -0,094 0,347
2019 0,143 0,066 0,078 0,253 0,112 0,141 0,396 -0,110 0,287
2020 0,215 0,073 0,142 0,145 0,058 0,086 0,360 0,070 0,289
2021 0,176 0,035 0,141 0,161 0,066 0,094 0,337 0,015 0,322
Mean 0,203 0,070 0,133 0,193 0,079 0,114 0,396 0,010 0,349
No e: The annual job low a es a e compu ed based on he ou h qua e - o- ou h qua e change in
ne employmen . Figu e A1 in he appendix depic s annual low a es based on all ou qua e s. Expans.
and Con . a e abb e ia ions o ‘expansion’ and ‘con ac ion’, espec i ely.
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and de Kok (2014). Adhe ing o he size classi ica ion o he EIS da abase, we de ine
‘mic o i ms’ as hose employing less han 10, ‘small i ms’ as hose wi h 10 o 49
employees, ‘medium i ms’ as hose wi h 50 o 249 employees, and ‘la ge i ms’ as
hose employing 250 and mo e wo ke s.
Small and Medium En e p ises (SMEs) in Tu key a e impo an con ibu o s o
employmen and job c ea ion (Başçı & Du ucan, 2017; Dalgıç & Fazlıoğlu, 2021;
Dogan e al., 2017, 2024). This inding is in line wi h he e idence in many o he
de eloping as well as de eloped coun ies (e.g., Ayyaga i e al., 2011; Cho e al.,
2017; Díaz-Mo eno & Galdón-Sánchez, 2000; Ma e al., 2015; Robu, 2013).16 SMEs
accoun o 99.7% o all en e p ises in Tu key and p o ide 71% o o al employmen
(TURKSTAT, 2022a). Simila ly, in ou analysis sample, he as majo i y o he i ms
a e o mic o-scale (91%), while hey only make up 22% o he o al employmen , as
p esen ed in Table 4.
Figu e 3 depic s an in e se ela ionship be ween job ealloca ion a es and i m
size. S ikingly, he job c ea ion a e o mic o- i ms is mo e han double he one o
small i ms and abou ou imes as la ge as he a e o la ge i ms. The job des uc-
ion a e also dec eases mono onically wi h size, bu he di e ences ac oss size ca -
ego ies a e less p onounced han is he case o job c ea ion. One poin wo h no ing
is he cyclical pa e n common o all size ca ego ies. The e is a educ ion in he job
c ea ion a e and an accompanying inc ease in he job des uc ion a e igh a e he
con ac ion pe iods o he 2008 c isis and mo e ecen ly in 2019.
Gi en ha i ms ha e no employees p io o en e ing he ma ke , jobs gene a ed
by new en an s con ibu e p edominan ly o he job coun o small i ms. The e o e,
he con ibu ion o he mic o i ms o job c ea ion would be o e s a ed by conside -
ing job low a es, as epo ed in Appendix Table A5. To p o ide a mo e accu a e
pic u e, we calcula e he sha es o job c ea ion and job des uc ion and decompose
hem in o hei subcomponen s. Table 4 shows ha mic o i ms accoun o a much
g ea e p opo ion o job c ea ion (43.5%) and job des uc ion (30%) han la ge -size
16 A ew s udies p esen con adic o y indings, indica ing ha la ge i ms may be mo e e ec i e ne job
c ea o s compa ed o smalle i ms. Fo example, Esaku (2022) and Ke e al. (2014) sugges ha la ge
i ms ou pe o m small and medium-sized en e p ises in job c ea ion in Sou h A ica.
Table 4 Sha es o job c ea ion and des uc ion by i m size
Fi ms Employ. Job c ea ion Job des uc ion
(%) (%) To al En y Expans. To al Exi Con .
1–2 71,68 6,68 25,05 85,96 12,60 9,41 24,27 3,30
3–9 19,31 15,33 18,42 7,62 20,63 20,42 26,77 17,81
10–19 4,58 10,11 9,96 2,04 11,58 12,33 12,38 12,31
20–49 2,93 14,66 12,18 1,45 14,38 15,85 13,12 16,97
50–99 0,77 8,72 7,59 0,91 8,96 9,08 6,57 10,11
100–249 0,48 11,95 9,05 1,05 10,69 11,12 7,16 12,75
250–499 0,15 8,28 5,49 0,52 6,50 7,18 3,90 8,54
500+ 0,11 24,28 12,25 0,45 14,67 14,61 5,82 18,22
No e: Fi m size e e s o he a e age p e ious yea ’s i m size. En ies indica e pe cen sha es, and
columns add up o 100. Expans. and Con . a e abb e ia ions o ‘expansion’ and ‘con ac ion’,
espec i ely
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ca ego ies. This la ge sha e o c ea ed jobs p ima ily s ems om new en ies, wi h
94% o all en ies being associa ed wi h mic o i ms. E en among expanding i ms,
mic o i ms con ibu e a highe sha e (33%) o job c ea ion han hei la ge coun e -
pa s. Fo small and medium-sized i ms, on he o he hand, app oxima ely 26% and
20% o jobs c ea ed a e gene a ed by he expansion o exis ing i ms. A compa able
end is obse ed in e ms o job des uc ion. Mo e han 50% o exi s a e a ibu ed
o mic o i ms, and he con ibu ion o la ge size ca ego ies dec eases uni o mly.
Howe e , he sha e o mic o i ms in job des uc ion due o con ac ion (21%) is less
Fig. 3 Ra es o job c ea ion and des uc ion by i m size
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e iden compa ed o o he size ca ego ies. Toge he , small, and medium-sized i ms
make up he majo i y o con ac ion (52%), while la ge-scale i ms (employing o e
250 wo ke s), cons i u ing a hi d o he wo k o ce, con ibu e a ound 18% o job
c ea ion and 22% o job des uc ion, su passing he con ibu ion by medium-scale
i ms. This e idence is in line wi h he one ound in Colombia (Fló ez e al., 2021),
he UK (Hijzen e al., 2010) and he c oss-coun y s udy o Hal iwange e al. (2014),
which all documen a mo e impo an ole o small and la ge i ms in job u no e ,
ela i e o medium i ms.
3.5 The ole o i m age
Recen s udies emphasize he impo ance o young i ms in job u no e (Esaku,
2022; Hal iwange , 2015; Lawless, 2014; Liu, 2024). Ayyaga i e al. (2011) sugges
ha small, young i ms ha e highe job c ea ion a es, while B ummund and Con-
nolly (2019), Esaku (2022), Ma e al. (2015) and Rijke s e al. (2014) emphasize he
c ucial ole o young i ms in ne job c ea ion o B azil, Kenya, China, and Tunisia,
espec i ely. Simila ly, Masso e al. (2005) epo compa able esul s o Es onia,
a ibu ing i o a a o able ins i u ional en i onmen and low s a -up cos s. Ou
indings align wi h his e idence om o he de eloping coun ies. As p esen ed in
Table 5, h ee- ou hs o i ms, wi h nea ly 70% o o al employmen , a e comp ised
o i ms ha a e up o 10 yea s old. New-en y i ms (i.e., aged 0–1 yea s) ha e he
highes a e o job c ea ion. The job des uc ion o his g oup is also he la ges bu
wi h a smalle dis ance o o he age ca ego ies. The job u no e a e declines mono-
onically as i ms ge olde , and i ms become mo e des uc i e han c ea i e, which
ansla es in o a alling nega i e employmen g ow h a e. We also obse e a dis inc-
i e pa e n among new-en y i ms in esponse o economic shocks, wi h a sha pe
inc ease in job des uc ion a es ahead o he 2018 down u n and a much as e and
mo e p onounced ebound in job c ea ion a es ollowing he global inancial c isis,
as Figu e A7 in he online appendix a es s.
The disp opo iona ely high con ibu ion o mic o- i ms o job c ea ion, as dis-
cussed in he p e ious sec ion, comes mainly because o new en an s. In ou sample,
new-en y i ms ha a e o mic o-scale accoun o 21% o he o al numbe o i ms,
Table 5 Annual job low a es by i m age
Fi ms Employ. POS NEG GROSS NET EXCESS
(%) (%)
0–1 22,57 17,12 0,359 0,238 0,597 0,122 0,475
2–5 30,59 29,04 0,213 0,218 0,431 -0,005 0,426
6–10 20,27 22,81 0,162 0,175 0,336 -0,013 0,323
11–15 11,48 14,75 0,140 0,148 0,288 -0,008 0,281
16–20 6,24 7,64 0,133 0,148 0,282 -0,015 0,267
21–25 3,51 4,25 0,120 0,143 0,264 -0,023 0,241
26+ 5,35 4,39 0,121 0,154 0,275 -0,033 0,242
No e: The annual job low a es a e compu ed based on ou h qua e - o- ou h qua e change in ne
employmen . The age g oups indica ed in he i s column a e exp essed in yea s
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while 46% co espond o young incumben (aged 2 o 10 yea s old) mic o i ms (see
Table A6 in he online appendix).17
While he e is abundan e idence o he nega i e ela ionship be ween i m size
and job ealloca ion, o which we con ibu e he e, ela i ely li le is known abou he
ex en o which i m-age accoun s o his ela ionship. Hence, we eg ess i m-le el
ne employmen g ow h a es
gi
, as o mula ed in Eq. 1, on i m size, age, and hei
in e ac ion. Table 6 shows he eg ession esul s, whe e we use he a e age i m size
(i.e., numbe o employees) o e he p e ious ou qua e s a he han he cu en o
ini ial i m size o a oid he eg ession o he mean allacy. Fi m size is exp essed in
na u al loga i hms, while i m age is measu ed as a ca ego ical a iable: i ms aged
0–1 se e as he baseline ca ego y, ollowed by hose aged 2–5, 6–10, and abo e 10
yea s old. We include i m size in na u al loga i hms and ou ca ego ies o i m age
as dummies (columns 1 and 2), as well as hei in e ac ions (columns 3 o 5). Addi-
17 We u he examine he combined con ibu ion o i m size and age o employmen dynamics h ough
he join dis ibu ion o job low sha es ac oss size and age ca ego ies. Young small i ms up o 10 yea s
old and up o 50 employees accoun o mo e han a hi d o o al job c ea ion. The p opo ion o he same
g oup is abou 16% o he job des uc ion. Al hough less p ominen han he young small i m g oup,
olde and bigge i ms (i.e., aged abo e 10 yea s and wi h mo e han 50 employees) s ill accoun o an
impo an sha e o job des uc ion compa ed o hei con ibu ion o job c ea ion (see Table A7 in he online
appendix).
Table 6 Reg ession esul s. Ne employmen g ow h a e o a i m
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Weigh ed
ln ( i m size) -0.006*** -0.004*** -0.072*** -0.070*** -0.018***
(0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.004) (0.005)
Fi m age 2–5 -0.217*** -0.299*** -0.297*** -0.162***
(0.001) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003)
Fi m age 6–10 -0.214*** -0.293*** -0.294*** -0.165***
(0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.003)
Fi m age 11+ -0.210*** -0.286*** -0.289*** -0.163***
(0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.003)
Age 2–5 * ln(size) 0.086*** 0.085*** 0.022***
(0.003) (0.003) (0.004)
Age 6–10 * ln(size) 0.082*** 0.081*** 0.022***
(0.002) (0.003) (0.004)
Age 11+ * ln(size) 0.079*** 0.079*** 0.021***
(0.002) (0.003) (0.003)
Cons an 0.023*** 0.198*** 0.262*** 0.378*** 0.224***
(0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.007) (0.006)
Dummies:
Sec o No No No Yes Yes
Region No No No Yes Yes
Yea *Qua e No No No Yes Yes
Obse a ions 68,407,523 67,594,950 67,594,950 67,594,880 67,594,880
No e: The baseline ca ego y o i m age is 0–1 yea s old. The speci ica ions include 16 sec o dummies,
12 NUT1-le el egional dummies, and 64 yea -qua e dummies. Robus s anda d e o s clus e ed a
wo-digi sec o le el in pa en heses *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1
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ionally, we inco po a e sec o , egion, and yea -qua e dummies (column 4), and
apply employmen weigh s in he eg ession es ima ion (column 5).
The esul s in Table 6 con i m he expec ed nega i e associa ion o i m size wi h
ne employmen g ow h (column 1), e en a e con olling o i m age (column 2).
The size-age in e ac ion e ms allow o size e ec s o di e depending on he li es-
pan o he i m. The es ima ed coe icien s on size and age a e obus o he inclu-
sion o sec o , egion, and ime- ixed e ec s. The use o employmen weigh s in he
eg ession has a disce nible impac , as i educes he coe icien es ima es subs an-
ially while s ill e aining s a is ical signi icance (column 5).
The size e ec is no ably nega i e and signi ican o he baseline g oup o i ms
aged 0–1. Essen ially, smalle new i ms expe ience ela i ely as e g ow h and
la ge new en an s con ibu e less o he o e all employmen g ow h (o sh ink mo e)
ela i e o he mo e es ablished la ge i ms. When conside ing olde age g oups, he
size e ec s a e calcula ed by combining he coe icien ela ed o size and i s in e ac-
ion e m. Fo example, he ac ual size e ec o i ms aged 2–5 is he combina ion
o he size e ec o he baseline ca ego y (new en an s) and i s in e ac ion wi h he
co esponding age g oup, i.e., -0.018 + 0.022 (see column 5). Consequen ly, in com-
pa ison o s a -ups, he ac ual size e ec o olde age ca ego ies is posi i e, al hough
his e ec is subs an ially mi iga ed by he nega i e size e ec seen in he baseline
ca ego y.18
3.6 Impo ance o o eign ade in job ealloca ion
Ano he key ac o in luencing employmen dynamics is a i m’s engagemen in
in e na ional ade, o en iewed as an indica o o p oduc i i y and a po en ial d i e
o job ealloca ion, as expo ing i ms end o be mo e p oduc i e acco ding o he
ade li e a u e (Ha & T an, 2017; Kien & Heo, 2009; Konings e al., 2003; Ma e
al., 2015). To examine his, we quan i y i ms’ in ol emen in in e na ional ade by
dis inguishing be ween impo s and expo s, as well as h ough an agg ega e mea-
su e o o eign ade —simply he sum o impo s and expo s. We cons uc impo
and expo in ensi y measu es by di iding he o al alue o impo s and expo s o
each sec o by G oss Domes ic P oduc (GDP) and ca ego ize sec o s in o quin iles
based on hei le el o impo o expo in ensi y. Simila ly, we c ea e o e all o eign
ade in ensi y quin iles by di iding he sum o impo s and expo s by GDP. We ind
a posi i e associa ion be ween ade in ensi y and employmen size. As shown in
he i s column o Table 7, nea ly 40% o employmen is concen a ed in he high-
es quin ile o impo ing i ms, while he lowes quin ile cons i u es oughly 10% o
o al employmen . A compa able pa e n, albei wi hin a na owe ange, is e iden
in expo ing i ms. In p opo ion o hei employmen sha es, we obse e ha i ms
in he op quin ile make he mos signi ican con ibu ion o job c ea ion and des uc-
ion, exceeding he con ibu ion o he bo om quin ile by mo e han wice. Likewise,
he p opo iona e con ibu ion o job c ea ion and des uc ion, e lec ed in pe cen age
18 The esul s hold in a speci ica ion augmen ed wi h o eign ade in ensi y as a con ol a iable and based
on a sample wi h comple e ade da a, whe e he sample size d ops signi ican ly — anging om app oxi-
ma ely 1.1 o 1.4 million obse a ions (see Table A.8 in he online appendix).
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Table 7 Reg ession esul s. Job c ea ion and des uc ion a es by impo and expo in ensi y
Employmen (%) Job c ea ion Job des uc ion
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Impo sha e quin ile:
q1 (baseline) 9.79
q2 11.04 -0.025*** -0.011** -0.011** 0.035*** 0.017*** 0.017***
(0.006) (0.005) (0.005) (0.007) (0.005) (0.005)
q3 15.93 -0.021** -0.010* -0.011* 0.036*** 0.024*** 0.024***
(0.008) (0.006) (0.006) (0.009) (0.007) (0.007)
q4 24.67 -0.026*** -0.017** -0.018** 0.043*** 0.035*** 0.036***
(0.010) (0.008) (0.008) (0.011) (0.008) (0.008)
q5 38.58 -0.023 -0.025** -0.027** 0.046*** 0.049*** 0.050***
(0.014) (0.012) (0.012) (0.014) (0.011) (0.011)
Expo sha e quin ile:
q1 (baseline) 15.01
q2 13.74 -0.023*** -0.010* -0.010** 0.021*** 0.013** 0.013**
(0.007) (0.005) (0.005) (0.007) (0.005) (0.005)
q3 15.88 -0.030*** -0.010 -0.010 0.016* 0.003 0.003
(0.009) (0.007) (0.006) (0.009) (0.007) (0.007)
q4 21.36 -0.029*** -0.001 -0.001 0.017* -0.005 -0.005
(0.009) (0.008) (0.008) (0.010) (0.008) (0.008)
q5 34.00 -0.019 0.013 0.014 0.000 -0.025** -0.026**
(0.012) (0.011) (0.010) (0.013) (0.012) (0.011)
Dummies:
Yea Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sec o No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Region No No Yes No No Yes
Obse a ions 15,754,215 15,754,215 15,753,783 15,754,215 15,754,215 15,753,783
No e: The speci ica ions include 99 wo-digi sec o dummies, 12 NUT1-le el egional dummies, and 16-yea dummies. Quin iles a e compu ed based on he a io o
impo o expo o GDP. The i s quin ile is used as a baseline ca ego y. All speci ica ions make use o he employmen weigh s desc ibed in Sec . 2.2. Clus e ed s anda d
e o s a sec o le el in pa en heses *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1
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sha es, inc eases om he i s o he op quin ile (Table A9.1 in he online appendix).
Na u ally, when using he agg ega e measu e o ade in ensi y, we also obse e a
clea upwa d end in employmen sha es, as well as job c ea ion and des uc ion
sha es, ac oss quin iles (see Tables A9.2 and A.10 in he online appendix).
On he o he hand, when we ocus on job low a es a he han sha es, we obse e
an in e se ela ionship wi h ade in ensi y. Howe e , as explained in subsec ion
3.2, his would be misleading due o di e ences in ini ial employmen le els ac oss
g oups. Ne e heless, examining he a es o job c ea ion and des uc ion o e ime
p o ides aluable insigh s in o how ecessions di e en ially a ec i ms based on
hei le els o ade in eg a ion. As shown in Fig. 4, he ends in job c ea ion and
des uc ion ac oss quin iles o o eign ade in ensi y indica e ha ecessions disp o-
po iona ely impac i ms wi h lowe ade exposu e. Du ing bo h he 2008 global
inancial c isis and he 2018 domes ic cu ency c isis, lowe - ade i ms expe ienced
sha pe declines in job c ea ion and g ea e inc eases in job des uc ion, e lec ing
hei highe sensi i i y o con ac ions in domes ic demand. Howe e , he di e en-
ial e ec o ade in ensi y on job des uc ion appea s mo e p onounced du ing he
domes ic cu ency c isis.
Speci ically, job c ea ion a es ell by 30.6% o high- ade i ms ( op quin ile)
and by 38.4% o low- ade i ms (bo om quin ile) du ing he 2018 c isis, whe eas
he decline was simila (a ound 20%) o bo h g oups du ing he 2008 ecession. Job
des uc ion a es, on he o he hand, inc eased mo e sha ply among high- ade i ms
be ween 2018 and 2019, ising by 38.7% ( om 0.130 o 0.170), compa ed o a 22.8%
inc ease be ween 2008 and 2009. Reco e y pa e ns also di e ed no ably: A e he
2018 ecession, job c ea ion among high- ade i ms ebounded s ongly, eco e ing
o 120% o i s lowes 2019 le el, whe eas low- ade i ms eco e ed only o app oxi-
ma ely 44% o hei p e-c isis le el, signaling g ea e pos -c isis esilience o i ms
wi h highe ade in ensi y. These indings sugges ha i ms wi h g ea e exposu e o
in e na ional ade bene i mo e signi ican ly om economic eco e ies, likely due o
demand di e si ica ion ac oss in e na ional ma ke s.
Nex , we examine whe he he obse ed co ela ion be ween a i m’s ade in en-
si y and i s po en ial o employmen g ow h holds wi hin a eg ession amewo k
wi h con ols o sec o , egion, and yea dummies. Following Hijzen e al. (2010)
we es ima e he impac o impo and expo in ensi ies on job c ea ion using he ol-
lowing eg ession:
g+
i
=
β0
+∑5
q=2β1IMPqj
+∑5
q=2β2EXPqj
+
γ
+
δj
+
θ
+
ϵi (3)
We de ine he a iable
g+
i
o be equal o
gi
o i ms ha a e expanding o en e ing
wi h
gi >0
and ze o o he wise, whe e he g ow h a e
gi
is calcula ed as in Eq. 1.
IMPqj
and
EXPqj
e e o quin ile (q) dummies o impo and expo sha e o
sec o j, espec i ely. The a iables
γ
,
δj
, and
θ
indica e yea , sec o , and egion
dummies. Job des uc ion esul s can be ob ained in a simila manne by de ining he
dependen a iable
g−
i
as equal o
gi
o con ac ing o exi ing i ms wi h
gi <0
and ze o o all o he i ms.
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In all speci ica ions, we use he employmen weigh s desc ibed in Sec . 2.2. The
eg ession esul s, shown in columns 2 o 7 in Table 7, sugges a nega i e ela ionship
be ween impo in ensi y and job c ea ion while he o me is ound o be posi i ely
associa ed wi h job des uc ion. The e is a s eady inc ease in he ela ionship as mo -
ing om low o highe quin iles. On he o he hand, we do no ind such a sys ema ic
ela ionship be ween expo in ensi y and job ealloca ion a es. Howe e , we do ind
ha i ms wi h high expo in ensi y ha e subs an ially less job des uc ion han i ms
Fig. 4 Ra es o job c ea ion and des uc ion by o eign ade in ensi y quin iles ac oss yea s
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wi h less expo in ensi y. While Jenkins (2004), p o ides suppo i e e idence o
he nega i e impac o inc eased impo compe i ion on employmen in Vie nam, we
belie e ha u he explo a ion o ade in ensi y da a and esea ch on i s ela ionship
wi h job lows a e necessa y o ully unde s and hese puzzling es ima es. This is pa -
icula ly impo an gi en he di e gence om he obse ed inc ease in job c ea ion
and des uc ion sha es as ade in ensi y mo es om lowe o highe quin iles, as
shown in Table A8.
To u he in es iga e he ole o o e all exposu e o in e na ional compe i ion
in explaining job lows, we ex end ou analysis by combining impo and expo
in ensi ies in o a single agg ega e measu e o ade in ensi y. Howe e , he mixed
pa e ns p e iously obse ed wi h expo in ensi y pe sis o job c ea ion a es also
when impo s and expo s a e agg ega ed. In con as , job des uc ion clea ly exhibi s
a posi i e and inc easing pa e n ac oss quin iles, simila o ha obse ed sepa a ely
o impo in ensi y. This ela ionship is s a is ically signi ican om he hi d o he
i h quin ile in all speci ica ions. This analysis highligh s he impo ance o disag-
g ega ing impo s and expo s, as agg ega ion may mask dis inc pa e ns associa ed
wi h each. The e o e, we would like o s ess he disagg ega ed esul s. Howe e , we
also p o ide he agg ega e ade in ensi y analysis in he online appendix o com-
ple eness (see Tables A9.2 and A.10).
3.7 The ole o echnology
Finally, we explo e he a ia ion in employmen dynamics based on he echnol-
ogy in ensi y o indus ies wi hin he manu ac u ing sec o since echnology le els
a e a ailable only o his sec o . Technology le els a e de e mined by he di ec
esea ch and de elopmen (R&D) in ensi y o indus ies.19 As p esen ed in Table 8,
he majo i y o manu ac u ing i ms, a e aging a ound 57%, all wi hin he low- ech
indus ies ca ego y. These i ms collec i ely employ abou 52% o he manu ac u ing
wo k o ce. Con e sely, i ms in high- ech indus ies cons i u e less han 1% o all
i ms, con ibu ing o a me e 2.4% o he employmen in manu ac u ing. Al hough
he sha e o i ms in low- ech indus ies has sligh ly dec eased by abou 3% poin s
o e he pas 16 yea s, his does no indica e a shi owa ds high- ech de elopmen .
The decline in low- ech indus ies’ sha e has been compensa ed by an inc ease in
19 Fo he classi ica ion o manu ac u ing indus ies in o ca ego ies based on R&D in ensi ies, see Table
A11 in he online appendix.
Table 8 Annual job low a es by echnology le el
Fi ms (%) Employmen (%) POS NEG GROSS NET EXCESS
A e age 2006 2021 A e age 2006 2021
Low 56,48 57,92 54,83 51,61 53,00 50,08 0,133 0,136 0,268 -0,003 0,265
Low-med 30,82 29,49 31,19 27,13 26,48 27,08 0,143 0,133 0,276 0,010 0,266
High-med 12,05 11,98 13,18 18,84 18,11 19,90 0,116 0,092 0,208 0,024 0,185
High 0,65 0,61 0,8 2,42 2,41 2,93 0,107 0,069 0,175 0,038 0,137
No e: The annual job low a es a e compu ed based on ou h qua e - o- ou h qua e change in ne
employmen . The echnology le el is epo ed only o he manu ac u ing indus y and based on he
OECD ISIC Re .3 classi ica ion
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he sha e o low-medium and high-medium echnology i ms. In addi ion, only i ms
in low- ech indus ies exhibi a nega i e ne employmen g ow h a e, unlike highe
echnology i ms whe e job c ea ion ou paces job des uc ion. A all in he excess a e
is also e iden as we mo e om low o high- ech i ms. This sugges s ha jobs wi hin
he low- ech segmen o manu ac u ing, which p esumably a e less p oduc i e, a e
less s able and mo e suscep ible o eshu ling. This aligns wi h Nago e Ga cía and
Van Soes (2017), who ind ha jobs in high- ech i ms a e mo e s able han o he
new jobs in Spain, bo h be o e and du ing he g ea ecession.
Las ly, we examine how job c ea ion and des uc ion dynamics e ol e o e ime
ac oss di e en echnology le els o i ms. Simila o he di e en ial impac o eces-
sions on high- e sus low- ade i ms (see Fig. 4), a dispa i y also eme ges when
analyzing job low a es by echnology le el o e ime. As shown in Fig. 5, high-
ech i ms exhibi s onge esilience du ing ecessions, wi h job low a es emaining
ela i ely s able. No ably, medium- ech i ms expe ienced he sha pes con ac ion in
job c ea ion and a subs an ial spike in job des uc ion, indica ing heigh ened ulne -
abili y o cyclical down u ns. Al hough low- ech i ms also show a decline in job
c ea ion a es and an inc ease in job des uc ion a es, he e ec s appea mo e mu ed.
Since echnology-le el da a is only a ailable o he manu ac u ing sec o , which
was he mos a ec ed sec o by he 2008 c isis, we obse e ha he impac o he
global ecession was mo e p onounced on job c ea ion han he local cu ency c isis.
Fo example, job c ea ion in high-medium ech i ms, which expe ienced he la ges
change compa ed o o he echnology le els, ell by app oxima ely 39% be ween
2008 and 2009, whe eas he decline was 21% du ing he 2018 ecession. In con-
as , he la ges inc ease in job des uc ion occu ed be ween 2017 and 2018, ising
by app oxima ely 52% o medium-high ech i ms, compa ed o a 32% inc ease in
he 2008 c isis. These indings highligh he heigh ened ulne abili y o medium- o
low- ech i ms, likely due o hei eliance on labo -in ensi e p oduc ion and limi ed
access o inancial bu e s du ing down u ns.
4 Pe sis ence in job c ea ion and job des uc ion
In his sec ion, we i s examine he pe sis ence o job c ea ion and des uc ion ac oss
yea s o he en i e economy and hen analyze he pe sis ence a e by i m cha ac e -
is ics. Table 9 indica es a one-yea pe sis ence a e o , on a e age, 59% o jobs c e-
a ed and 75% o jobs des oyed, which dec eases s eadily as mo ing away om he
e e ence yea o he ini ial employmen change. The a e age i e-yea pe sis ence
a e o newly c ea ed and newly des oyed jobs is 29% and 41%, espec i ely. The
highe pe sis ence a e o job des uc ion is consis en wi h he one ound in he UK
and he US. Hijzen e al. (2010) ela e his o he la ge con ibu ion o i m exi s o
job des uc ion, which has pe se a pe manen cha ac e . Compa ed o he esul s o
he U.S. and he U.K., we ind ela i ely low pe sis ence a es in Tu key o bo h job
c ea ion and job des uc ion. Such e idence poin s in compa ison wi h indus ial-
ized coun ies o a ela i ely sho li e o newly c ea ed jobs and a ela i ely small
incidence o ha pa o long- e m unemploymen , which is due o job des uc ion.
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TUIK Habe Bül eni. h p s : / / d a a . u i k . g o . / B u l e n / I n d e x ? p = I s g u c u - I s a i s i k l e i - A a l i k - 2 0 2 1 - 4 5 6 4
2
TURKSTAT (2023). Household labo o ce S a is ics—TURSTAT news bulle in. Tu kish S a is ical Ins i-
u e (TURKSTAT). h p s : / / d a a . u i k . g o . / B u l e n / I n d e x ? p = I s g u c u - I s a i s i k l e i - 2 0 2 2 - 4 9 3 9 0 # : ~ : e x
= 2 0 2 2 % 2 0 y ı l ı n d a % 2 0 4 % 2 0 m i l y o n % 2 0 8 6 6 , k i ş i % 2 0 h i z m e % 2 0 s e k ö ü n d e % 2 0 i s i h d a m % 2 0 e d i l d i
Publishe ’s no e Sp inge Na u e emains neu al wi h ega d o ju isdic ional claims in published maps
and ins i u ional a ilia ions.
Au ho s and A ilia ions
Sinem H.Ayhan1· Ha mu Lehmann2· SelinPelek3
Sinem H. Ayhan
[email p o ec ed]
Ha mu Lehmann
[email p o ec ed]
Selin Pelek
[email p o ec ed]
1 Leibniz-Ins i u e o Eas and Sou heas Eu opean S udies (IOS) & Ins i u e o Labo
Economics (IZA), Landshu e S . 4, 93047 Regensbu g, Ge many
2 IOS, Uni e si y o Bologna & IZA, Landshu e S . 4, 93047 Regensbu g, Ge many
3 Gala asa ay Uni e si y & GIAM, Ci agan Cad. No:36, O aköy, Is anbul 34349, Tü kiye
1 3
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