Fo eman, Je emy J.; Tu ick, Robe M.; Williams, Dylan P.; Skinne , Tyle L.
A icle
Race, ma ke size, seg ega ion and subsequen
oppo uni ies o o me NFL head coaches
Jou nal o Economics and S a is ics
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
De G uy e B ill
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Fo eman, Je emy J.; Tu ick, Robe M.; Williams, Dylan P.; Skinne , Tyle L. (2024) :
Race, ma ke size, seg ega ion and subsequen oppo uni ies o o me NFL head coaches, Jou nal
o Economics and S a is ics, ISSN 2366-049X, De G uy e Oldenbou g, Be lin, Vol. 244, Iss. 5/6, pp.
533-555,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1515/jbns -2023-0092
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/333296
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Je emy J. Fo eman, Robe M. Tu ick, Dylan P. Williams and
Tyle L. Skinne *
Race, Ma ke Size, Seg ega ion and
Subsequen Oppo uni ies o Fo me NFL
Head Coaches
h ps://doi.o g/10.1515/jbns -2023-0092
Recei ed No embe 25, 2023; accep ed Sep embe 9, 2024
Abs ac : This s udy examines subsequen head coach oppo uni ies o o me
Na ional Foo ball League (NFL) head coaches. Unde a subsequen CEO ca ee
amewo k, su i al analysis is used o examine he effec s o ace and ma ke
cha ac e is ics on subsequen NFL head coach oppo uni ies o o me head coaches.
Obse a ions o o me head coaches who nei he ended hei coaching ca ee s no
possess head coach posi ions in he obse ed seasons a e used (n= 1,132). Black
o me NFL head coaches a e less likely o secu e subsequen NFL head coaching
oppo uni ies i hei mos ecen coaching posi ion was in a la ge media ma ke .
Howe e , bo h Black and non-Black o me head coaches who mos ecen ly coached
in highly seg ega ed me opoli an a eas expe ienced highe likelihoods o secu ing
subsequen head coaching oppo uni ies. This seg ega ed ma ke effec is e en
s onge o Black o me head coaches. The NFL can u ilize his in o ma ion in
policy o ma ion decisions ega ding hi ing policies and p ac ices. Teams and hei
lead execu i es can also use his in o ma ion o iden i y any pe sonal biases ha may
a ise wi hin he head coach labo ma ke . Coaches may use he in o ma ion o bes
posi ion hemsel es o subsequen ca ee oppo uni ies.
A icle No e: This a icle is pa o he special issue “Spo s Economics”published in he Jou nal o
Economics and S a is ics. Access o u he a icles o his special issue can be ob ained a www.deg uy e .
com/jbns .
*Co esponding au ho : Tyle L. Skinne , Assis an P o esso , Uni e si y o Sou h Ca olina, Columbia,
SC, USA, E-mail: [email p o ec ed]. h ps://o cid.o g/0000-0002-6951-5868
Je emy J. Fo eman, Associa e P o esso , Uni e si y o Louisiana, La aye e, LA, USA,
E-mail: [email p o ec ed]
Robe M. Tu ick, Assis an P o esso , Indiana Tech, Fo Wayne, IN, USA,
E-mail: [email p o ec ed]
Dylan P. Williams, Associa e P o esso , Uni e si y o Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL USA,
E-mail: [email p o ec ed]
Jou nal o Economics and S a is ics 2024; 244(5–6): 533–555
Open Access. © 2024 he au ho (s), published by De G uy e . This wo k is licensed unde he
C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 4.0 In e na ional License.
Keywo ds: labo ma ke ; execu i es; disc imina ion; Na ional Foo ball League; head
coaches
JEL Classifica ion: Z; L83
The Na ional Foo ball League (NFL) is he mos popula spo in he Uni ed S a es as
e idenced by i s ele ision a ings and a endance numbe s (Das 2020). Since i s
o ma ion in he ea ly 1920s, he NFL has also g own o be he mos aluable Ame ican
spo s league. NFL eams gene a e a e age yea ly e enues o nea ly 600 million USD,
wi h anchise alues a e aging app oxima ely 5 billion USD (Ozanian and Tei elbaum
2023). Addi ionally, eams equally sha e nea ly wo- hi ds o all league-gene a ed
e enue (Eh lich e al. 2021). In addi ion o i s popula i y in he Uni ed S a es, he NFL
has g ea ly inc eased i s global p esence (Gems and Pfis e 2019). NFL games a e
egula ly held in England and Ge many, wi h u u e schedules expanding in o B azil
and Spain (Dajani 2024). The NFL’s popula i y leads ans, on office pe sonnel, and
owne s o ca e ully c i icize and e alua e he pe o mance o head coaches.
Rose (2016) e idenced an a e age o six o se en yea ly NFL head coach u n-
o e s, which eam suppo e s gene ally iew as an immedia e solu ion o hei
eam’s p oblems. Using 2005 o 2015 NFL head coaching da a, Rose ound ha 65 % o
new hi es (49/75) we e fi ed a e less han h ee seasons. The abundance o head
coach u no e in he NFL on he Monday a e he egula NFL season ends has
come o be known as “Black Monday”because i usually ma ks he fi ings o coaches
and eam execu i es whose eams did no make he playoffs (Cosg o e 2019).
In addi ion o he a en ion paid o he numbe o head coaches ha a e hi ed/
fi ed each yea , a significan amoun o media a en ion has o en ocused on he ace
o he hi ed/fi ed head coaches (Hen y and Oa es 2020). The 2020 Racial and Gende
Repo Ca d o he NFL s a ed ha 57.5 % o NFL playe s we e Black, 30.5 % o
assis an coaches we e Black, and 9.4 % o head coaches we e Black (TIDES 2020).
This p og essi e decline om hose playing in he NFL o hose coaching in he NFL
led T oy Vincen , Execu i e Vice P esiden o Foo ball Ope a ions o he NFL, o
sugges ha he NFL’s head coach hi ing sys em is b oken o mino i y candida es
(King 2020). The NFL has 32 eams bu only fi e mino i y head coaches and fi e
mino i y gene al manage s ollowing he 2020 season (Laine 2021). O no e, B ooks
e al. (2019) epo ed ha o e a hi d o NFL eams ha e ne e hi ed a pe manen
mino i y head coach and no eam has e e hi ed consecu i e coaches om unde -
ep esen ed mino i y backg ounds.
To add ess he unde ep esen a ion o mino i y head coaches, he NFL in o-
duced he Rooney Rule in 2003. The Rooney Rule equi ed eams o in e iew a leas
one e hnic-mino i y candida e when hey had a head coaching acancy (G aziano
2020). Recen ly, NFL eam owne s app o ed new modifica ions o he Rooney Rule.
Fo example, eams mus conduc in e iews wi h a leas wo candida es om
unde ep esen ed mino i y g oups o any head coach acancy (G aziano 2020). This
534 J. J. Fo eman e al.
modifica ion aims o p o ide mino i y coaches wi h mo e oppo uni ies o in e iew
o coaching jobs, which will help bo h fi s - ime coaches and hose who a e looking
o a subsequen NFL head coach posi ion.
In an icipa ion o mo e Black o me head coaches po en ially ha ing subse-
quen oppo uni ies, he pu pose o his pape is o examine he ex en o which
Black o me head coaches ha e ecei ed subsequen head coaching oppo uni ies.
Fu he , his p ojec has in e es in de e mining how hose oppo uni ies diffe om
non-Black o me head coaches and he ex en ha he ma ke size and seg ega ion
le els o hei p e ious eam’s me opoli an a ea may influence hei p ospec s o
becoming a head coach again. This examina ion is bo h necessa y and imely as
o me Black head coaches may find hemsel es wi h inc eased in e iew oppo -
uni ies and u u e Black head coaches may wan o unde s and wha hei e-hi e
p ospec s may be i hey ail in hei fi s head-coaching ole.
1 Li e a u e Re iew and Theo e ical F amewo k
Because o hei many simila i ies, NFL head coaches ha e been used o de elop chie
execu i e office (CEO) heo y o decades (e.g. B own 1982; F ed ickson, Hamb ick,
and Baum in 1988; Keidel 1987; Ndo o e al. 2009). CEO heo y has also been applied
o esea ch in es iga ing Ame ican oo ball phenomena (e.g. Fo eman, Soebbing,
and Sei ied 2019; Soebbing and Washing on 2011). Mo e specifically, oo ball da a ha e
been used o examine se e al possible ca ee ou comes (e.g. p omo ion, dismissal) o
hese o ganiza ional leade s (e.g. Maxcy 2013; Salaga and Ju a ich 2020). A ela i ely
unde - esea ched ca ee ou come o CEOsand spo head coaches is he oppo uni y o
secu e subsequen op leade ship posi ions.
In hei amewo k o unde s anding subsequen CEO oppo uni ies o ous ed
CEOs, Wa d, Sonnen eld, and Kimbe ly (1995) p esen ed se e al ac o s ela ed o
hese subsequen ca ee ou comes. Specifically, hey explained how se e al ac o s
such as he CEO’s compensa ion, eason o he CEO’s depa u e, demog aphic
ac o s, and media co e age affec whe he o me CEOs a e iewed as hi able o
u u e CEO posi ions. Ou amewo k subsequen ly ollows, in which we discuss how
execu i e compensa ion, CEO depa u e, and ca ee ou comes ela e o ou con ex
o he NFL head coach labo ma ke . We hen de elop ou hypo heses ela ed o
u u e ca ee ou comes based on ace, media ma ke size, and seg ega ion.
1.1 CEO Compensa ion
Due o high le els o compensa ion and gene ous exi packages, CEOs gene ally do
no een e he execu i e labo ma ke (Wa d, Sonnen eld, and Kimbe ly 1995).
Subsequen HC Oppo uni ies 535
While his phenomenon has no been examined in he NFL due o he lack o
consis en and accessible NFL coach sala y da a, i can be seen ollowing many
oo ball coach dismissals anecdo ally. Publicly a ailable in o ma ion om college
oo ball highligh s he phenomenon o head oo ball coaches ecei ing la ge payou s
p io o he ypical e i emen age. Fo example, Gus Malzahn was owed $21.5 million
a e his dismissal om Aubu n Uni e si y a age 55 and Ke in Sumlin ecei ed
$7.3 million when he le he Uni e si y o A izona a age 56 (Ki k 2020).
1.2 Causes o Depa u es
Wa d, Sonnen eld, and Kimbe ly (1995) desc ibed se e al causes ha could esul in
CEO depa u es, including pe o mance issues, imp ope beha io , disag eemen s,
and pe sonali y clashes. They easoned ha CEOs who depa ed fi ms due o he
a o emen ioned easons migh be iden ified as damaged goods. CEOs ha ha e been
gi en ha label a e o en iewed as unhi able o u u e CEO posi ions. Simila ly,
NFL head coaches a e e alua ed and expe ience ad e se ca ee ou comes ollowing
ins ances o poo pe o mance and imp ope beha io (Fo eman, Soebbing, and
Sei ied 2019). Disag eemen s and pe sonali y clashes can also influence ca ee
ou comes o NFL head coaches, especially wi h conflic s likely o occu due o
cul u al misunde s andings in he inc easingly di e se NFL (Nelson and Quick 2017).
1.3 Demog aphics and Ca ee Ou comes
Common demog aphics used o examining NFL head coaches a e age and ace (e.g.
Salaga and Ju a ich 2020; Solow, Solow, and Walke 2011). Wa d, Sonnen eld, and
Kimbe ly (1995) s a ed ha age is an impo an ac o in o me CEOs secu ing
subsequen CEO oppo uni ies. Olde CEOs a e less likely han younge o me CEOs
o ob ain o he ac i e execu i e posi ions. Howe e , olde CEOs we e mo e likely
han younge CEOs o be offe ed ad iso y ole posi ions. Also o impo ance, Wa d,
Sonnen eld, and Kimbe ly (1995) sha ed ha olde CEOs a e less likely o ake on
esh o new challenges and ha o ganiza ions migh be hesi an abou hi ing an
olde CEO o eplace a depa ing one. This ype o mo e would likely lead o ano he
quick succession due o he incoming CEOs age.
While Wa d, Sonnen eld, and Kimbe ly (1995) did no explici ly discuss acial
ac o s in subsequen CEO oppo uni ies, hey commen ed on he exis ence o an
‘inne ci cle,’s a ing, “The idea is ha he e is a ai ly well defined and ela i ely
closed ne wo k o communi y o CEOs and di ec o s who se e on in e locking
boa ds and who look a e hei own by helping o find o he di ec o ships o
posi ions o ellow eli es ous ed by an o ganiza ion”(p. 126). Rela edly, he NFL is
536 J. J. Fo eman e al.
known o ope a e in a ela i ely closed ne wo k o mos ly Whi e men who ope a e as
NFL owne s, gene al manage s, and head coaches (Collins 2007; Fo eman e al. 2018;
Fo eman Bendickson, and Cowden 2021; TIDES 2020). The e o e, cogni i e biases and
access limi a ions o he ne wo k o ‘inne ci cle’o NFL decision make s may p e-
en unde ep esen ed coaches om secu ing head coach oppo uni ies.
1.4 Racial Dispa i ies in NFL Coach Ca ee Oppo uni ies
B ooks e al. (2019) no ed ha Black head coaches end o be hi ed a olde ages, ha e
mo e ele an playing expe ience, and do no ecei e equi alen subsequen oppo -
uni ies. Rega ding age, hey epo ed ha newly hi ed Whi e head coaches we e
48.4 yea s old, compa ed o 51.2 o coaches o colo –adiffe ence o almos h ee
yea s. No ably, among he 14 head coaches unde heage o 40 who we e hi ed o e he
pas decade, only wo (14.3 %) we e coaches o colo .
Rega ding ele an coaching expe ience, B ooks e al. (2019) s a ed ha o me
NFL offensi e coo dina o s we e mos equen ly hi ed as NFL head coaches. O he
common pas coaching posi ions included NFL de ensi e coo dina o and NFL head
coach o an al e na i e club. Almos wo-fi hs o head coaches hi ed since 2009 le
offensi e coo dina o posi ions and a li le less han one- hi d o head coaches hi ed
le o he head coaching oles. In e es ingly, e en hough offensi e coo dina o s and
cu en NFL head coaches ep esen he wo la ges pools om which new head
coach hi es a e ound, hal (i.e. 6 o 12) o he newly hi ed coaches o colo occupied
he de ensi e coo dina o posi ion p io o becoming a head coach.
Rega ding subsequen NFL head coach oppo uni ies, B ooks e al. (2019)
p esen ed desc ip i e s a is ics showing ha Black o me head coaches expe ienced
mo e difficul y ob aining subsequen NFL head coach posi ions, compa ed o Whi e
o me head coaches. Specifically, hey s a ed:
The nex coaching posi ions o ou going head coaches o colo we e less a ied compa ed o
ou going whi e head coaches. Ou going head coaches o colo mos o en became NFL de ensi e
coo dina o s (36 %). Ou going whi e head coaches mos o en became NFL de ensi e coo dina o s
(22 %), NFL offensi e coo dina o s (21 %), o head coaches o o he NFL clubs (14 %). Exi ing whi e
head coaches we e hi ed o o he NFL head coaching posi ions a wice he a eo coaches o colo
(14.3 % s. 7.1 %). They also wen on o offensi e coo dina o posi ions in he NFL a nea ly h ee
imes he a e o coaches o colo (20.6 % s. 7.1 %) (B ooks e al. 2019, p. 24).
Those esul s clea ly demons a e Black coaches s uggle o e u n o he head
coaching pipeline posi ions. Howe e , hese desc ip i e s a is ics did no con ol o
he quan i y o quali y o coaching expe iences. Building upon he desc ip i e s a-
is ics p esen ed by B ooks e al. (2019), Fo eman, Bendickson, and Cowden (2021)
ound ha Black coaches we e abou 38 % mo e likely o secu e subsequen head
Subsequen HC Oppo uni ies 537
coach oppo uni ies in he NFL han hei non-Black coun e pa s. Gi en hese mixed
esul s, we p esen he ollowing hypo hesis:
Hypo hesis 1: Black o me head coaches secu e u u e head coach posi ions a a
diffe en a e han hei non-Black o me head coach pee s.
1.5 Publici y and Ma ke Size
While boa ds o di ec o s a e esponsible o appoin ing CEOs in co po a e se ings,
in he NFL, head coaches a e appoin ed by eam owne s o gene al manage s.
Howe e , pe sonnel decisions made by bo h boa ds o di ec o s and NFL eam
owne s and gene al manage s a e suscep ible o biases and may be based on limi ed
in o ma ion se s (Collins 2007; F ed ickson, Hamb ick, and Baum in 1988; Fo eman,
Bendickson, and Cowden 2021). In addi ion o indi idual cogni i e biases ha plague
pe sonnel decisions, eam owne s and gene al manage s a e o en swayed by public
opinion, whe he ha be (a) o appease s akeholde s (e.g. ans and sponso s) o
(b) because in o ma ion se s a e o en include ex e nal e alua ions (e.g. om he
public, media, and analys s). Fo example, amid moun ing, o e en pending, p essu e
om he public, eluc an eam decision-make s ha e changed hei acis masco
names and logos (Ospina 2024), suspended hei own playe s (Fo eman, Soebbing,
and Sei ied 2019), o e en hi ed o fi ed hei head coaches (Hamb ick, Bass, and
Schaepe koe e 2014; Flo es, Fo es , and de Dios Tena 2012). Simila ly, eam
decision-make s ha e been known o make subop imal decisions based on limi ed
in o ma ion se s ha ha e been la gely influenced by he public, such as ans, media
and social media, analys s (Bu sik 2012; Fo eman, Bendickson, and Cowden 2021;
Rome 2006). The e o e, public pe cep ions o NFL head coach candida es can affec
eam owne s’and gene al manage s’hi ing decisions, whe he based on cha ac-
e is ics o he candida es hemsel es (e.g. ace) o he public pe cep ions in he
en i onmen s whe e he coaches p e iously coached.
The publici y su ounding an ous ed CEO’s exi can help o ha m hei p ospec s
o ob aining ano he execu i e ole. As no ed by Wa d, Sonnen eld, and Kimbe ly
(1995), “Fo CEOs ous ed o nega i e easons, he publici y would only ein o ce
hose nega i e pe cep ions …Fo hose CEOs ous ed o neu al exi easons, how-
e e , he media exposu e would help keep hem isible o execu i e sea ch fi ms”
(p. 126). The e o e, o candida es who may be pe cei ed mo e nega i ely by he
public, whe he due o ace, pe o mance, o o he issues, mo e publici y could
hinde u u e employmen oppo uni ies, whe eas candida es pe cei ed mo e
neu ally, o he same easons o ace, pe o mance, e c., may benefi om enhanced
media exposu e, aiding hem in secu ing u u e employmen .
538 J. J. Fo eman e al.
Simila s a emen s ha e been made abou he impo ance o e aining media
exposu e o emain isible in he NFL (Collins 2007), especially since he NFL is a
ela i ely closed ne wo k o p edominan ly Whi e decision-make s. The e o e, we
belie e ha he NFL eam’s media ma ke size has been a neglec ed ac o o
analysis in discussing he cu en unde ep esen a ion o Black coaches. Whe e mos
s udies ha e analyzed he unde ep esen a ion o Black coaches as a labo ma ke
p oblem (Bozeman and Fay 2013; B addock, Smi h, and Dawkins 2012; Madden 2004),
emphasis should be placed on he impac he media ma ke plays in influencing he
hi ing o Black coaches.
Cunningham and Bopp (2010) discussed how media and p ess eleases o new
college oo ball head coaching hi es helped o pe pe ua e he belie ha Whi es we e
be e a game planning and unde s anding he s a egy o oo ball han Blacks, and
Blacks we e be e ec ui e s and mo e ela able o playe s. Highligh ing he
coaching abili y o Whi es, while downplaying i o Blacks, hey a gued helps o
ein o ce ha m ul acial ideologies abou Black men in leade ship. Conside ing he
ole he media plays in co e ing he hi ing o Black coaches in he NFL, combined
wi h an unde s anding ha la ge ma ke s a e likely o ha e mo e news ou le s and
mo e widesp ead co e age o coaches wi hin ha ma ke ha may ha e mo e
subs an i e and nega i e effec s on Black coaches, we offe he ollowing hypo heses:
Hypo hesis 2a: The ma ke size o he mos ecen NFL ci y ha o me head coaches
coached in posi i ely influences he speed a which hey secu e subsequen NFL head
coach posi ions.
Hypo hesis 2b: The ma ke size o he mos ecen NFL ci y ha Black o me head
coaches coached in nega i ely influences he speed a which hey secu e subsequen
NFL head coach posi ions.
1.6 Ma ke Seg ega ion
Jus as pe cep ions abou po en ial head coaches may a ise based on he size o a
ma ke ha a coach mos ecen ly wo ked in, ano he ma ke cha ac e is ic ha may
affec Black head coach appoin men s is he deg ee o which he mos ecen ma ke
was seg ega ed. Fo head coaches who mos ecen ly coached in mo e seg ega ed
ma ke s, pe cep ions om ha media ma ke may be biased based on he deg ee o
seg ega ion om ha ma ke . Seg ega ion wi hin he me opoli an may be de i-
men al o an unde ep esen ed candida e because o bias and disc imina ion ha is
inhe en in he s uc u e o he ci y, especially as i may esul in less amilia i y wi h
Subsequen HC Oppo uni ies 539
people o di e se backg ounds. Howe e , mo e seg ega ed ci ies (e.g. Chicago,
De oi , New Yo k) may be mo e likely o neglec people o di e se backg ounds in
compa ison o less seg ega ed ma ke s (e.g. Minneapolis, Sea le).
Mo eo e , in he case o high-p ofile jobs like CEO o NFL head coach, unde -
ep esen ed leade s may benefi om less a en ion (Dwi edi, Misangyi, and Joshi
2021; Smi h, Chown, and Gaughan 2021). Fu he mo e, he s uc u e o he media
wi hin he ci y, especially wi h he p e alence o social media, may eflec he
seg ega ed s uc u e o he ci y i sel , esul ing in mo e di e se media ou le s leading
he co e age o Black coaches and po aying hem mo e posi i ely. Gi en hese
compe ing possibili ies o majo i y and unde ep esen ed candida es o head
coach posi ions in he NFL, we hypo hesize:
Hypo hesis 3a: The deg ee o seg ega ion o he mos ecen NFL ci y ha o me
head coaches coached in influences he speed a which hey secu e subsequen NFL
head coach posi ions.
Hypo hesis 3b: The deg ee o seg ega ion o he mos ecen NFL ci y ha Black
o me head coaches coached in influences he speed a which hey secu e subsequen
NFL head coach posi ions.
2 Me hods
To examine he effec s o ace, ma ke size, seg ega ion, and o he po en ial
de e minan s o o me NFL head coaches secu ing subsequen NFL head coach op-
po uni ies, we use da a om he NFL du ing he 25-season sample pe iod ex ending
om he 1995–1996 season h ough he 2019–2020 season. A dicho omous dependen
a iable is used o indica e he season in which a o me NFL head coach secu es a
subsequen NFL head coach posi ion (Nex Job). The dependen a iable Nex Job is
coded wi h a alue o ‘1’i he o me head coach secu ed ano he head coach
posi ion in an obse ed season and ‘0’i he o me head coach held a posi ion o he
han NFL head coach.
Because o me NFL head coaches can coach o se e al yea s wi hou secu ing
a subsequen opening, i hey secu e one a all, we use su i al analysis wi h
obse a ions o episodes o o me head coaches who ha e no ended hei coaching
ca ee s and do no possess head coach posi ions in he obse ed seasons. The e o e,
he dependen a iable Nex Job indica es a ailu e, in which a coaching episode ends
wi h he ou come o a subsequen head coach posi ion secu ed. Obse a ions o
o me NFL head coaches who began an episode o unde employmen , in which hey
we e s ill in he labo ma ke bu no employed as an NFL head coach, ha began
540 J. J. Fo eman e al.
Figu e 1: P obabili y o emaining unde employed by ace, size o he me opoli an a ea he coach
mos ecen ly coached in, and yea s since he coach las held a head coach posi ion.
Figu e 2: P obabili y o emaining unde employed by ace, seg ega ion le el o he a ea ha he coach
mos ecen ly coached in, and yea s since he coach las held a head coach posi ion.
Subsequen HC Oppo uni ies 547
pe o mance had a nega i e coefficien and was s a is ically significan (p= 0.002).
Las ly, he Age a iable indica es ha olde o me NFL head coaches a e less likely
o secu e subsequen NFL head coaching oppo uni ies.
4 Discussion
Consis en wi h p e ious esea ch ega ding acial disc imina ion in he NFL coach
labo ma ke (e.g. B addock, Smi h, and Dawkins 2012; Fo eman e al. 2018), Black
o me NFL head coaches we e epo ed o be less likely o secu e subsequen NFL
head coaching oppo uni ies (B ooks e al. 2019). Howe e , his conclusion was based
on an analysis o desc ip i e s a is ics, which did no accoun o o he a iables (e.g.
expe ience o pe o mance). The p esen s udy examined he ime o secu ing a
subsequen NFL head coach posi ion using su i al analysis and con olled o a i-
ables such as (a) mos ecen posi ion held, (b) o e all and ecen success as an NFL
head coach, (c) yea s o coaching expe ience a a ious le els, and (d) demog aphics.
Analyzing subsequen NFL head coaching oppo uni ies o o me NFL head
coaches h oughou a 25-season sample pe iod, he esul s e eal p ac ically and
heo e ically in iguing insigh s. B oadly, he findings show ha ace appea s o be a
ac o in subsequen NFL head coaching oppo uni ies. Mo eo e , he effec o ace
on subsequen NFL head coaching oppo uni ies is also influenced by he mos ecen
posi ion held by he o me NFL head coach and he ma ke size o he eam mos
ecen ly coached. The e o e, ace has i s own effec s as well as combined effec s
based on whe he he o me head coach was an assis an head coach he p e ious
season and in wha ma ke he o me head coach was mos ecen ly in ol ed.
4.1 Ma ke Size
F ed ickson, Hamb ick, and Baum in (1988) posi ed ha la ge g oups a e mo e
likely o de elop ac ions, and when hose ac ions disag ee, ad e se decisions
ega ding he ca ee ad ancemen s o o ganiza ional leade s can suffe . The e o e,
when he e a e disag eemen s abou a o me NFL head coach’s abili y o lead an
o ganiza ion, and some s akeholde s may belie e ha Black indi iduals a e ine -
ec i e leade s (see Rose e, Leona delli, and Phillips 2008), Black o me NFL head
coaches may be less likely o secu e subsequen NFL head coaching posi ions. Indeed,
he esul s o he p esen s udy suppo his no ion, wi h Black o me NFL head
coaches no expe iencing he ca ee ad ancemen benefi s o coaching in a la ge
NFL ma ke ha a e expe ienced by hei non-Black coun e pa s. Ra he , he esul s
o he p esen s udy indica e ha he ca ee ad ancemen oppo uni ies, in e ms o
548 J. J. Fo eman e al.
secu ing subsequen NFL head coaching oppo uni ies, a e diminished o Black
o me NFL head coaches whose mos ecen coaching posi ion was in a la ge media
ma ke . Desc ip i e s a is ical analyses ou side o spo also p o ide addi ional
suppo o ou findings.
In a B ookings Ins i u ion epo , Pe y e al. (2022) e idenced ha he highes
ep esen a ion o black-owned businesses was ound amongs smalle me opoli an
a eas. Fo example, Black business owne s and en ep eneu s in me opoli an a eas
such as Oxna d, Cali o nia and Faye e ille, No h Ca olina had much highe le els
o pee ep esen a ion han he much la ge egions o New Yo k Ci y and A lan a.
4.2 Seg ega ion
Mo e seg ega ed me opoli an a eas a e mo e likely o p oduce u u e NFL head
coaches who p e iously se ed as NFL head coaches. This ela ionship holds espe-
cially ue o Black o me NFL head coaches. Gi en he benefi o bo h Black and
non-Black o me NFL head coaches (and especially o Black o me NFL head
coaches), i is possible ha he s uc u e o he media wi hin he ci y, especially wi h
he p e alence o social media, may eflec he seg ega ed s uc u e o he ci y i sel ,
esul ing in mo e di e se media ou le s leading he co e age o Black coaches and
po aying hem mo e posi i ely.
While he seg ega ion li e a u e does ocus on i s pejo a i e uses and effec s,
he e is addi ional e idence o “posi i e”ou comes associa ed wi h seg ega ion.
Peach (1996) a gues ha while “good”and “bad”seg ega ion a e in e ela ed, hey
a e dis inc concep s, which has led o misunde s andings as o he ela ionship
be ween social p ocesses and u ban spa ial pa e ns. Gil and Ma ion (2018) e i-
denced a simila phenomenon in a his o ical s udy o small businesses, whe e he e
was a posi i e ela ionship be ween esiden ial seg ega ion and ma ke concen a-
ion o A ican Ame ican mo ie hea e s. Ou s udy p o ides addi ional e idence o
Gil and Ma ion’s (2018) p oposal o posi i e ou comes (e.g. imp o ed consump ion in
ho izon ally diffe en ia ed goods) associa ed wi h highe le els o esiden ial
seg ega ion.
4.3 Pas Coaching Expe ience
While bo h Black and non-Black o me NFL head coaches a e mo e likely o secu e
subsequen NFL head coach posi ions immedia ely ollowing a p e ious s in as an
NFL head coach, subs an ial diffe ences exis be ween Black and non-Black o me
Subsequen HC Oppo uni ies 549
NFL head coaches whose mos ecen posi ion was no an NFL head coach. Speci -
ically, Black o me NFL head coaches whose mos ecen posi ion was no a head
coach posi ion a e mo e likely o secu e subsequen NFL head coach posi ions han
non-Black o me NFL head coaches who also we e no mos ecen ly in NFL head
coach posi ions. The e a e many possible easons why Black o me NFL head
coaches expe ience a highe likelihood o secu ing subsequen NFL head coach
posi ions, ela i e o non-Black o me NFL head coaches, when no al eady holding
an NFL head coach posi ion in he p eceding season.
Though Black and non-Black o me NFL head coaches appea o expe ience a
ela i ely equal likelihood o secu ing subsequen NFL head coach posi ions
immedia ely a e holding head coach posi ions, and ha likelihood is subs an ially
highe han o me NFL head coaches who assumed lowe le el coaching posi ions
o ook ime away om he NFL, he e is a significan acial dispa i y among hese
non-NFL head coaches when seeking subsequen NFL head coach oppo uni ies. This
dispa i y may be due o pe cep ions o o me NFL coaches who wen om NFL head
coaches o lesse posi ions (o no posi ions), as hey a e mo e likely o be iewed as
damaged goods (Wa d, Sonnen eld, and Kimbe ly 1995). Howe e , among hese
coaches, Black o me NFL coaches who ook lowe -le el coaching posi ions o ime
away om he NFL may be pe cei ed diffe en ly han non-Black o me NFL head
coaches. Fo example, hey may ha e pe o med poo ly unde al eady-ad e se
ci cums ances (e.g. poo managemen , limi ed esou ces) a e an ini ial NFL head
coach oppo uni y ha could be iewed as a glass cliffwas aken. NFL eam owne s
and gene al manage s may iew hei eams as ha ing be e managemen o mo e
esou ces, which could allow o me NFL head coaches o be mo e success ul. I
mino i ies a e mo e likely o ob ain posi ions in which hey a e expec ed o ail (Cook
and Glass 2014), Black o me NFL head coaches may be less likely o be iewed as
damaged goods, and mo e likely o secu e subsequen NFL head coach posi ions a e
aking lowe -le el coaching posi ions.
Addi ionally, mo e p e ious NFL head coach posi ions and longe a e age en-
u es in hose p e ious NFL head coach posi ions inc eases he likelihood o secu ing
subsequen NFL head coach posi ions. Howe e , mo e yea s o expe ience in gen-
e al, and he age o head coaches, does no help o me NFL head coaches secu e
subsequen head coach oppo uni ies, indica ing ha head coach expe iences a e
aluable, when a ied. Gi en ha Black NFL coaches end o ha e mo e subs an ial
playing expe iences (B ooks e al. 2019), hey may en e he coaching p o ession la e ,
making hem olde coaches who a e less likely o secu e head coach posi ions
because o hei old age. Thus, age disc imina ion may be causing acial dispa i ies in
NFL head coach oppo uni ies.
550 J. J. Fo eman e al.
4.4 Pas Pe o mance
While many non-pe o mance ela ed ac o s influence he likelihood ha o me
NFL head coaches will secu e subsequen NFL head coach posi ions, pe o mance
ela ed ac o s also play a ole. Though no s a is ically significan e idence was ound
ega ding he ela ionship be ween pas Supe Bowl appea ances and secu ing
subsequen NFL head coach posi ions, he o e all ca ee winning pe cen age and
mos ecen ca ee winning pe cen age as an NFL head coach we e significan
p edic o s o secu ing subsequen NFL head coach posi ions. Howe e , hese wo
measu es o NFL head coach pe o mance ha e subs an ially diffe en effec s. As
expec ed, o me NFL head coaches wi h highe ca ee winning pe cen ages as a
head coach a e mo e likely o secu e subsequen NFL head coach posi ions.
In con as , a o me NFL head coach’s season winning pe cen age in he mos
ecen season as an NFL head coach has a nega i e ela ionship wi h secu ing a
subsequen NFL head coach posi ion. Fo me NFL head coaches wi h lowe winning
pe cen ages in hei final season as a head coach o a eam may expe ience a deg ee
o o gi eness o ha final poo pe o mance ha likely played a ole in hei
dismissal. The o gi able final season as he head coach o an NFL eam may be
excusable o decision make s o se e al easons such as: (a) a success ul coach’s
message may ha e go en old wi h a eam and i may be ime o mo e on, (b) decision
make s may iew ha final season o poo pe o mance as an anomaly, o (c) e-
sou ces may ha e been una ailable o he coach due o playe suspensions (Fo eman,
Soebbing, and Sei ied 2019) o inju ies.
5 Conclusions
The p esen s udy ound e idence o Black o me NFL head coaches who coached a
la ge ma ke eam in he p e ious season being less likely o secu e a subsequen
NFL head coach posi ion ha season. Addi ionally, bo h Black and non-Black o me
NFL head coaches benefi in he NFL head coach labo ma ke om coaching in a
mo e seg ega ed me opoli an a ea; howe e , Black o me NFL head coaches
benefi subs an ially mo e han hei non-Black coun e pa s.
While he NFL can use his in o ma ion o in o m u u e di e si y ini ia i es and
policies (e.g. Rooney Rule modifica ions), indi idual eam owne s, gene al manage s,
and coaches can also benefi om his in o ma ion. Fo example, indi idual eam
owne s and gene al manage s can iden i y hei own biases o imp o e decision
making when filling an NFL head coach acancy. Black coaches can use his
Subsequen HC Oppo uni ies 551
in o ma ion o unde s and he op imal posi ions o pu sue ha would lead o u u e
NFL head coach posi ions. Addi ionally, Black coaches can use he in o ma ion in his
s udy o unde s and he ca ee implica ions o aking an NFL head coach posi ion
ha may se hem up o ailu e due o limi ed esou ces o poo managemen
(i.e. glass cliff).
5.1 Limi a ions
While se e al meaning ul s a is ically significan esul s we e iden ified in his
s udy, and a ionales we e p o ided ega ding why hese phenomena may be
occu ing, we canno be ce ain as o why hese ela ionships exis . While causal
ela ionships a e easie o iden i y using su i al analysis due o he empo al
na u e o he analysis (Bloss eld, Golsch, and Rohwe 2009), he unde lying easons
o why hese ela ionships occu emains unce ain and beyond he pu iew o he
s a is ical analysis used in he p esen s udy. Addi ionally, exogenous ac o s may
be affec ing he analysis. Ne e heless, h ough a igo ous s a is ical analysis using
nume ous obus ness checks, we a e confiden ha he esul s in he s udy a e
alid, and he examina ion o subsequen NFL head coaching oppo uni ies is
meaning ul.
5.2 Fu u e Resea ch Oppo uni ies
Fu u e esea ch can del e deepe in o hese issues using quali a i e o quan i-
a i e analyses. Fu u e esea ch can seek o unde s and why and how decisions
a e made when filling NFL head coach acancies. A a ie y o quali a i e ools
could be used o examine his issue including obse a ions, con en analyses,
in e iews, ocus g oups, o e hnog aphies. F om a quan i a i e pe spec i e,
u u e esea ch can examine unanswe ed ques ions in his esea ch such as
whe he he e is a significan disad an age o mino i y coaches in he coach labo
ma ke due o sus aining longe p o essional playing ca ee s. The ad en o legalized
be ing on Ame ican p o essional spo has led o g ea e da a a ailabili y o NFL
ma ke odds. This would allow u u e wo k o assess a head coach’s success based on
p edic ed gambling expec a ions. Ano he oppo uni y o quali a i e o quan i a-
i e esea ch could be o examine why, o unde wha condi ions, is poo pe o -
mance in a final season as a head coach desi able o decision make s filling head
coach acancies.
552 J. J. Fo eman e al.
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