Yossinomi a, Yossinomi a; Ha yadi; Hodijah, Si i
A icle
De e mining he u u e di ec ion and amoun o ax
e enue in Indonesia using an e o co ec ion model
(ECM)
Ekonomika
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Vilnius Uni e si y P ess
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Yossinomi a, Yossinomi a; Ha yadi; Hodijah, Si i (2024) : De e mining he
u u e di ec ion and amoun o ax e enue in Indonesia using an e o co ec ion model (ECM),
Ekonomika, ISSN 2424-6166, Vilnius Uni e si y P ess, Vilnius, Vol. 103, Iss. 1, pp. 56-77,
h ps://doi.o g/10.15388/Ekon.2024.103.1.4
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Ekonomika ISSN 1392-1258 eISSN 2424-6166
2024, ol. 103(1), pp. 56–77 DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.15388/Ekon.2024.103.1.4
De e mining he Fu u e Di ec ion and
Amoun o Tax Re enue in Indonesia Using
an E o Co ec ion Model (ECM)
Yossinomi a Yossinomi a*
Facul y o Managemen and Business Science, Uni e si as Dinamika Bangsa, Indonesia
Email: [email p o ec ed]
ORCID: h ps://o cid.o g/0000-0002-2190-8128
Ha yadi
Facul y o Economics and Business, Uni e si as Jambi, Indonesia
Email: [email p o ec ed]
Si i Hodijah
Facul y o Economics and Business, Uni e si as Jambi, Indonesia
Email: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac . The cha ac e is ics o how ax e enues, as well as he mac oeconomic ac o s ha a e expec ed
o in luence and de e mine ax e enues, de elop ha e become he basic mac oeconomic assump ions by he
go e nmen in compiling a ious componen s o he pos u e o he s a e e enue and expendi u e budge o
main ain and inc ease he expec ed economic g ow h. To unde s and he e olu ion o ax e enues and he
impac s o hese a iables, i is impo an o in es iga e he ela ionship be ween ax e enues and speci ic
mac oeconomic a iables. This s udy aims o iden i y he e ec o mac oeconomic a iables on Indonesian
ax e enues in he long and sho e m using mul iple eg ession analysis in an e o co ec ion model (ECM).
The mac oeconomic condi ions and a iables used in his s udy a e g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP), in la ion,
in e es a es, and exchange a es. This s udy employed he ime-se ies da a om 2000–2019. The ECM me hod
was conduc ed in he ollowing s ages: s a iona i y es , coin eg a ion es , and ECM eg ession es . The ECM
model is decla ed alid, i he coin eg a ed a iables a e suppo ed by a signi ican and nega i e ECT coe icien
alue. The s a is ical analysis, i.e. -s a is ic, he F-s a is ic, and he coe icien o de e mina ion, we e used
o e alua e he signi icance o he ECM model. The esul s showed ha among he ou o mac oeconomic
a iables used in his s udy, GDP has he highes signi ican e ec on he ax e enue. GDP has a highly pos-
i i e and conside able impac on ax e enue. The inc easing o GDP g ow h is in line wi h he ealiza ion o
ax e enue. A s ong posi i e long- e m ( -s a is ic = 13.94075*, P- alue = 0.0000) and sho - e m ( -s a is ic
= 5.515026*, P- alue = 0.0001) associa ion is also obse ed be ween in la ion and ax e enue. In la ion has
a a o able and conside able impac on ax income ei he in long ( -s a is ic = 2.298586**, P- alue= 0.0363)
o sho e m ( -s a is ic = 2.515695**, P- alue = 0.0258). On he o he hand, Bank Indonesia in e es a e
Recei ed: 04/04/2023. Re ised: 05/03/2023. Accep ed: 18/06/2023
Copy igh © 2024 Yossinomi a Yossinomi a, Ha yadi, Si i Hodijah. Published by Vilnius Uni e si y P ess
This is an Open Access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License, which pe mi s un es ic ed use,
dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal au ho and sou ce a e c edi ed.
Con en s lis s a ailable a Vilnius Uni e si y P ess
* Co esponden au ho .
Acknowledgemen s. The au ho would like o exp ess since e g a i ude o Syamsu ijal Tan, Muhammad
Sa i, and Zul ane i o hei signi ican ad ice in imp o ing he manusc ip .
Yossinomi a e al. De e mining he Fu u e Di ec ion and Amoun o Tax Re enue in Indonesia Using an E o Co ec ion Model (ECM)
57
has a nega i e insigni ican e ec ( -s a is ic = −1.542970ᵈ, P- alue = 0.1437) in he long un on ax e enue.
Howe e , i has a nega i e signi ican e ec ( -s a is ic = −2.699231**, P- alue = 0.0182) in sho - e m ax
e enue. A ise in in e es a es esul s in he lowe ed ax e enues due o he educ ion o public consump ion
pa e ns, and a dec ease in public consump ion. The exchange a e has a nega i e negligible connec ion in long
e m ( -s a is ic = −1.045768ᵈ, P- alue = 0.3122), as well as in sho e m ( -s a is ic = 1.250076ᵈ, P- alue =
0.2333) wi h ax e enue, meaning ha ax e enue is no signi ican ly a ec ed by changes in exchange a e.
In conclusion, o al ax e enues and he ou mac oeconomic a iables ha e a signi ican long- and sho - e m
associa ion acco ding o he ECM analysis wi h an adjus ed R² alue o 0.985866 and 0.792880, espec i ely.
Changes in u u e ax e enues a e la gely de e mined by he s abili y o mac oeconomic a iables. The e o e,
i is highly ecommended ha he go e nmen main ain he s abili y o mac oeconomic a iables, especially
GDP, because GDP has a dominan in luence on ax e enues in he long and sho e m so ha he a ge
o ax e enues can be achie ed. The ECM analysis applied in his s udy can explain he e ec o changes
in mac oeconomic a iables on he ax e enue in he sho and long e m; so ha he u u e di ec ion and
amoun o ax e enue can be de e mined in p epa ing he S a e Budge and p ojec ing he expec ed le el o
economic ac i i y g ow h in a na ion.
Keywo ds: Economic g ow h, axes, sho all, mac oeconomic a iables, ECM
1. In oduc ion
Va ious ypes o in as uc u e a e cu en ly unde de elopmen in Indonesia; he e o e,
he Indonesian go e nmen is incessan ly seeking sou ces o s a e e enue h ough a i-
ous means such as deb and, o cou se, axes. As a pa icula ly impo an sou ce o s a e
e enue o building o epai ing in as uc u e, ax e enues can imp o e he coun y’s
economy. Tax e enue is he main sou ce o e enue o he S a e Budge o he Republic
o Indonesia (Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomo 17 Tahun 2003 en ang Ke-
uangan Nega a, 2003). This budge a y dependence means ha ax e enue as an elemen
o he implemen a ion o s a e e enue collec ion mus be able o mee he needs o s a e
go e nance. The impo ance o inc easing s a e e enue om ax e enues is in line wi h
he inc easing need o s a e spending o na ional de elopmen .
Mo e sus ainable s a e inance o e enue mus be needed o add ess economic, so-
cial, and en i onmen al p oblem (Sawhney, 2018; Ska zauskas, 2021). A axa ion is a
go e nmen ool ha has he powe o in luence he en i e economic sys em (Milasi &
Waldmann, 2018), because he mos signi ican s a e e enue is om he axa ion sec o .
An e ec i e ax sys em as a sou ce o domes ic income will be able o mo e he wheels
o de elopmen o ee na ions om dependence on o eign aid and na u al esou ces
(Fjelds ad, 2014). People’s wel a e can be ealized i he go e nmen is able o collec
axes om ci izens and use hem o de elop he s a e (Yossinomi a, 2022). Tax e enue is a
c ucial aspec o he coun y’s de elopmen , and his is because ax e enue is he p ima y
sou ce o income o he s a e, mo e han 80% o s a e e enue comes om ax e enue.
Financial s abili y is de e mined by mone a y and mac oeconomic s abili y, so analysis
in he inancial sec o , including analysis o ax e enue as he la ges sou ce o s a e e -
enue, is c ucial (Ska zauskas, 2021). The s uc u e o ax policy is de e mined by income
inequali y and economic g ow h (Adam e al., 2015). I he go e nmen in ends o boos
ax e enues, hen he go e nmen mus gua an ee ha mac oeconomic ci cums ances
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(Ha ahap e al., 2018; Mi o ić e al., 2019). The s abili y o mac oeconomic indica o s
de e mines inancial s abili y, pa icula ly ax e enues (Ozili, 2020).
E e y na ion’s economy depends in la ge pa on axes, which mus be designed in
he bes possible way o suppo and enhance economic g ow h (Kalaš e al., 2018). The
esul s o he Kim e al. (2021) empi ical s udy p o e ha he esponse o ou pu g ow h
is cons ained by liquidi y, which is he main cause due o changes o nonachie emen
o he ax e enue a ge . The isk ha o en occu s in ax e enue in Indonesia is when
he ealiza ion o ax e enue does no each i s a ge , which is commonly e e ed o as
a sho all. The sho all p oblem is an annual p oblem in he p epa a ion o he budge .
Tax e enue is pe pe ually below he p ede e mined a ge , bo h in he S a e Budge
and i s e ision (Re ised S a e Budge ). The go e nmen ’s high a ge and he low and
di icul ax e enue ake ha e made he ealiza ion o ax e enue always below a ge
e en hough i has been lowe ed in he e ision o he s a e budge . The ealiza ion o
ax e enue lowe han he se a ge (sho all) can be a se ious p oblem o he s a e
budge and budge inancing. This condi ion indica es he need o a mo e ep esen a i e
ax e enue planning model.
Th ough he Minis y o Finance, he go e nmen made se e al imp o emen s, pa -
icula ly ega ding he in ensi ica ion and ex ensi ica ion o axa ion, as well as changes
in mac oeconomic assump ions, o inc ease ax e enue so ha la e i can be used in
he in e es s o he s a e (Kemen e ian Keuangan, 2020). Failu e o achie e he ax e -
enue a ge will cause he go e nmen o ail in ca ying ou i s unc ions, especially in
economic policy, namely, s a e inancing o budge a y unc ions. The go e nmen mus
de elop policies and ax e enue planning in acco dance wi h he si ua ion o he economy
o inc ease ax e enue o s a e income. No el and mo e e ec i e me hods o analyz-
ing ax e enue ha e been widely applied in o he coun ies, one o which is he use o
mac oeconomic a iables.
Tax e enue a ge s mus be se based on p ojec ed economic ac i i y g ow h measu ed
by mac oeconomic indica o s’ pe o mance. The backg ound o using mac oeconomic
assump ions in p epa ing he S a e Budge is ha mac oeconomic indica o s can be used as
a e e ence in compiling a ious componen s o he S a e Budge pos u e. The pa adigm o
using mac oeconomic assump ions in p epa ing he S a e Budge is mo i a ed by he idea
ha economic s abili y is needed o main ain he expec ed le el o economic g ow h (Ke-
men e ian Keuangan Republik Indonesia, Di ek o a Jende al Angga an, 2014). The p ima y
mac oeconomic assump ions in p epa ing he APBN a e as ollows: GDP, annual economic
g ow h (%), in la ion a e (%), upiah exchange a e pe USD, 3-mon h SPN/SBI in e es
a e (%), Indonesian oil p ice (USD/ba el, Indonesian oil and gas li ing (ba els/day).
The ela ionship be ween mac oeconomic a iables and ax e enues has been s udied
in se e al coun ies, including China (Zhang and Cui, 2008; Zhenyu & Huqin, 2009),
Nige ia (Muibi and Sinbo, 2013), EU-28 membe coun ies (S oilo a, 2017), A ica
(A iwayo, 2018; Baba unde e al., 2017), Se bia and C oa ia (Kalaš e al., 2018), Spain
(Mi o ić e al., 2019); India (Neog and Gau , 2020) and Nepal (Dahal, 2020). Se e al
mac oeconomic ac o s ha e been obse ed in he li e a u e o ha e a s ong ela ionship
Yossinomi a e al. De e mining he Fu u e Di ec ion and Amoun o Tax Re enue in Indonesia Using an E o Co ec ion Model (ECM)
59
wi h ax e enues, including g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP), p ice le els, and o eign ade
(Zhang and Cui, 2008); income a e, exchange a e, and in la ion a e (Muibi and Sinbo,
2013); income ax policy (Zheng and Se e e, 2016); GDP, in la ion, he cen al bank
in e es a e, and he upiah exchange a e (Ha ahap e al., 2018); GDP, unemploymen ,
in la ion, in es men , and go e nmen spending (Mi o ić e al., 2019); economic g ow h,
aid and ade (Neog and Gau , 2020); and GDP (Dahal, 2020). Based on esea ch and
empi ical e idence in a ious coun ies, he analysis o mac oeconomic a iables is i al
in op imizing ax e enue o inancing he de elopmen o a coun y.
In his s udy, he au ho s use ou mac oeconomic a iables: GDP, in la ion, in e es
a es, and exchange a es, as ac o s in luencing ax e enues. The basic hings why he
au ho s use he ou a iables e e ed o a e: (1) because o he se en mac oeconomic
a iables ha o m he basis o assump ions in p epa ing he S a e Budge , hese ou a i-
ables a e he mos impo an indica o s in desc ibing a coun y’s mac oeconomic s abili y;
(2) because hese ou a iables ep esen he eal sec o and he mone a y sec o so ha
hey can be e explain he ela ionship and in luence wi h ax e enues which a e he
iscal sec o ; (3) he use o hese ou a iables e e s o p e ious esea ch and li e a u e
s udies in o he coun ies; (4) due o da a a ailabili y; (5) as well as because i has a good
signi icance le el in applying he de eloped analy ical model.
Based on esea ch and empi ical e idence in a ious coun ies, analyzing mac oeconomic
a iables is c ucial in op imizing ax e enues o inance na ional de elopmen . This s udy
analyzes ela ionships be ween ax e enue and mac oeconomic a iables. Two ypes o
analysis a e used in his s udy. Fi s , desc ip i e analysis is employed h ough he iden i ica-
ion o he cha ac e is ics o he de elopmen o ax e enues and mac oeconomic a iables
ha a e expec ed o in luence and de e mine ax e enues, which include GDP, in la ion,
Bank Indonesia (BI – he cen al bank o he Republic o Indonesia) a e and exchange a es.
Second, quan i a i e analysis assesses he e ec o mac oeconomic a iables on Indonesian
ax e enues in he long and sho e m using an e o co ec ion model (ECM).
ECM is a ime-se ies econome ic echnique in oduced by G ange and Weiss (1983),
as well as Engle and G ange (1987). As a dynamic analysis model, ECM explains he
e ec o changes in independen a iables on he dependen a iable in he sho and long
e m (Engle and G ange , 1987). The e ec o he dynamics o mac oeconomic a iables
on ax e enue in he long and sho e m is a c ucial pa o analyzing ax e enue. In
his s udy, an ECM will be buil o analyze he e ec o he balance o mac oeconomic
a iables, which consis s o GDP, in la ion a e, BI a e, and he exchange a e agains ax
e enues in he long and sho e m.
This s udy uses ime-se ies da a om 2000–2019; he use o his pe iod is due o: (1)
o he pas wo decades, he mac oeconomic condi ions in Indonesia ha e been mo e
s able because he e was no mone a y c isis in 1998 and no COVID-19 pandemic in
2020; (2) da a luc ua ions be a oided ha can a ec he accu acy o he analysis so ha
he esea ch esul s o his s udy can be e e lec he cu en axa ion condi ions and he
Indonesian economy.
ISSN 1392-1258 eISSN 2424-6166 Ekonomika. 2024, ol. 103(1)
60
Taxa ion as a iscal policy ool will only be e ec i e i he analysis o ac o s ha in-
luence i is known and analyzed. This s udy seeks o explo e, documen , and analyze he
in luence o se e al dominan mac oeconomic a iables on ax e enues. Based on esea ch
and empi ical e idence in a ious coun ies, analysis o mac oeconomic a iables is e y
impo an in op imizing ax e enues o inance na ional de elopmen . Based on he esul s
o he au ho ’s explo a ion, esea ch, and empi ical e idence ha examines he e ec o
mac oeconomic a iables on ax e enues using he ECM model and ela es his o he
p oblem o sho alls in ax e enues in Indonesia, he e a e no o ha e been de ec ed. The
esul s o his esea ch will la e eme ge o imp o e policy-making, which will inc ease
ealis ic s a e e enues, hus encou aging economic g ow h and imp o ing he coun y’s
economy, no only in Indonesia bu also coun ies ha a e heading owa ds de eloped
coun ies, such as Indonesia.
2. Resea ch me hod
2.1. Types and Sou ces o Da a
The Cen al Bu eau o S a is ics, he Minis y o Finance o he Republic o Indonesia
(Di ec o a e Gene al o Taxes), he Cen al Bank o he Republic o Indonesia (Bank
Indonesia/BI), and o he da a sou ces, including ax books, ax bulle ins, economic and
ax jou nals, and he indings o p e ious s udies, we e all used in his s udy. Da a used
in his s udy a e om 2000–2019 on ax e enue, cu en p ice GDP, in la ion a e, BI
a e and exchange a es.
2.2. Da a Analysis Me hod
The analysis echniques used o add ess he p oblems in his esea ch a e desc ip i e
and quan i a i e analysis. Desc ip i e analysis is p esen ed in abula o m o ou line
he a iables o be discussed. The desc ip i e analysis is ca ied ou by iden i ying he
condi ion o he inc easing o ax e enues in Indonesia and se e al mac oeconomic a -
iables ha in luence he de elopmen : GDP, in la ion, BI a e and exchange a e du ing
he 2000–2019 pe iod. Quan i a i e analysis was conduc ed o analyze he e ec o he
a iables GDP, in la ion, BI a e, and exchange a e on Indonesian ax e enues using
mul iple eg ession analysis.
The da a analysis model used o analyze he e ec o mac oeconomic a iables on
Indonesian ax e enues in he long and sho e m is ECM. The s ages in es ing he ECM
me hod a e as ollows.
1. S a iona i y es
A s a iona i y es is ca ied ou using he uni - oo s es and he deg ee o in eg a ion
es o es whe he he da a o a iables analyzed in his s udy a e s a iona y.
Yossinomi a e al. De e mining he Fu u e Di ec ion and Amoun o Tax Re enue in Indonesia Using an E o Co ec ion Model (ECM)
61
2. Coin eg a ion es
A coin eg a ion es is conduc ed o de ec he s abili y o he long- e m ela ionship
be ween wo o mo e a iables. I coin eg a ion is de ec ed be ween he ela ed a iables,
hen a long- e m ela ionship is es ablished (G ange , 1980). The p esence o absence o
coin eg a ion is in es iga ed wi h he augmen ed Engel–G ange es , which es ima es he
eg ession model hen calcula es he esidual alue. I he esidual alue is s a iona y, hen
he eg ession is a coin eg a ion eg ession. The long- un eg ession model is as ollows:
LTAX = C0 + α1LGDP + α2INF + α3BIR + α4LNTR + u (1)
No e:
LTAX = Tax Re enue Loga i hm
LGDP = GDP Loga i hm
INF = In la ion
BIR = BI a e
LNTR = Exchange Ra e Loga i hm
C0 = Cons an
α1, α2, α3, α4 = Coe icien
u = Con ounding Va iables
= Time Pe iod
3. ECM Reg ession Tes
As long as he e is a coin eg a ion ela ionship be ween he cons i uen a iables, he
ECM model can be used o ix eg ession equa ions in ol ing a iables ha a e no in-
di idually s a iona y so ha hey e en ually e u n o hei equilib ium alue (Engle and
G ange , 1987). The ECM model is c ea ed u ilizing he esiduals om he coin eg a ed
equa ion o he long- un equa ion a e eg ession equa ions ha e been un. The e o
co ec ion e m (ECT), which has an impac on he sho - e m equa ion, is adjus ed using
he esidual om he long- un equa ion. ECM modelling is done by en e ing he i s lag
o he eg ession esiduals in he equa ion in o he eg ession o he s a iona y a iables
a he same di e ence. The ECM model used is he ollowing:
DLTAX =β0 + β1DLGDP + β2DINF + β3DBIR + β4DLNTR + β5ECT+ u (2)
No e:
DLTAX = Change o Tax Re enue Loga i hm
DLGDP = Change o GDP Loga i hm
DINF = Change o In la ion
DBIR = Change o BI a e
DLNTR = Change o Exchange Ra e Loga i hm
ECT = Residual equa ion, o ECT, which ep esen s he ac ual adjus men
o he equilib ium condi ion when an imbalance condi ion occu s.
β0 = Cons an
β1, β2, β3, β4 = Coe icien ECM
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62
β5 = The esidual coe icien o he ECT equa ion
u = Con ounding Va iables
= Time Pe iod
I he coin eg a ed a iables a e suppo ed by a signi ican and nega i e ECT coe i-
cien alue, he ECM model is said o be alid. The di ec ion o he used a iables will be
u he om he long- e m balance i he ECT coe icien is posi i e, making i impossible
o employ he ECM model.
4. S a is ic Tes
The -s a is ic, he F-s a is ic, and he coe icien o de e mina ion we e used o conduc
a s a is ical es . I he s a is ical es alue is in a c ucial egion, he s a is ical compu a ion
is e e ed o as s a is ically signi ican ( he H0 a ea is ejec ed). On he o he hand, i he
s a is ical es alue is inside he allowed H0 ange, he calcula ion is said o be insigni ican .
3. Resul s and discussion
3.1. Resul s
3.1.1. Desc ip i e Analysis
a. De elopmen o Tax Re enues in Indonesia
The g ea es componen o s a e e enue is ax e enue, and he le el o ax collec ion has
a signi ican impac on o e all s a e e enue. The amoun o ax e enue will gua an ee
he s abili y o he independence and inancing o na ional de elopmen . The lowe ing o
ax e enue ealiza ion will be ollowed by a dec ease in s a e e enue.
In his s udy, he ealiza ion o ax e enue on s a e e enue du ing he pe iod 2000–
2019 has always inc eased wi h he con ibu ion o s a e e enue ending o luc ua e
(Table 1). Du ing he pe iod 2000–2008, he con ibu ion o ax e enues o s a e e enue
a e aged 55%–71%. In 2009–2014, he con ibu ion o ax e enue o s a e e enue was in
a e age o 72%–75%. Fu he mo e, du ing he 2015–2019 pe iod, he con ibu ion o ax
e enue o s a e e enue inc eased o o e 78%–83%. These esul s show ha ax e enue
has a s a egic ole in s a e e enue compa ed o o he sou ces o e enue.
The s a egy and managemen o ax e enues play an impo an ole o he go e nmen
o achie e na ional de elopmen a ge s. Du ing he pe iod 2000–2019, he ealiza ion o
ax e enues in Indonesia inc eased om yea o yea as well as he a ge s gi en by he
go e nmen , which ha e always inc eased e e y yea . The g aph o he de elopmen o
a ge s and ealiza ion o ax e enues and hei achie emen s o e he pas wo decades,
namely 2000–2019 in Indonesia, is shown in Figu e 1.
Du ing he pe iod 2000–2008, he pe cen age o ax e enue ealiza ion was in he ange
o 96%–108% o he se a ge , whe eas in 2000, 2004 and 2008, ax e enue ealiza ion
did no expe ience a sho all, wi h an a e age pe cen age o achie emen abo e 100%.
In he 2007–2008 pe iod, he economic c isis ha hi he Uni ed S a es also had an impac
on he Indonesian economy. In 2008, he ealiza ion o ax e enues eached 108.12%
Yossinomi a e al. De e mining he Fu u e Di ec ion and Amoun o Tax Re enue in Indonesia Using an E o Co ec ion Model (ECM)
63
o he a ge . This pe cen age o achie emen is he highes pe cen age o achie emen
du ing he pe iod 2000–2019.
In he pe iod 2009–2019, he ax e enue ealiza ion ended o be below he a ge se
o expe ienced a sho all, wi h he pe cen age o ax e enue ealiza ion in he ange o
83%–99% pe yea . In 2015 and 2016, he ax e enue sho all was qui e la ge, wi h he
pe cen age o ax a ainmen dec easing o 83.29% and 83.48%, espec i ely. This pe iod
ep esen s he la ges ax e enue sho all and he lowes pe cen age o achie emen
du ing he 2000–2019 pe iod, as i was below 90%.
Table 1. Tax e enues ( he s a e e enue and expendi u e budge o Indonesia and he ealiza ion o ax
e enue) and Indonesian s a e incomes, 2000–2019
Yea
Tax Re e-
nue Ta ge
(Billions o
upiah)
Tax Re e-
nue Ta ge
G ow h
Realiza-
ion o Tax
Re enue
(Billions o
upiah)
Tax Re -
enue Re-
aliza ion
G ow h
S a e
Income
(Billions o
upiah)
Tax
Re enue
on S a e
Income
Sho all
(Billions o
upiah)
Achie e-
men
2000 111,064 −115,913 −205,335 56.45% 4,849 104.37%
2001 184,737 66.33% 185,541 60.07% 301,078 61.63% 804 100.44%
2002 214,713 16.23% 210,088 13.23% 298,528 70.37% −4,625 97.85%
2003 248,470 15.72% 242,048 15.21% 341,396 70.90% −6,422 97.42%
2004 278,208 11.97% 280,559 15.91% 403,367 69.55% 2,351 100.85%
2005 351,974 26.51% 347,031 23.69% 495,224 70.08% −4,943 98.60%
2006 425,053 20.76% 409,203 17.92% 637,987 64.14% −15,850 96.27%
2007 492,011 15.75% 490,989 19.99% 707,806 69.37% −1,022 99.79%
2008 609,228 23.82% 658,701 34.16% 981,609 67.10% 49,473 108.12%
2009 651,955 7.01% 619,922 −5.89% 848,763 73.04% −32,033 95.09%
2010 743,326 14.01% 723,307 16.68% 995,271 72.67% −20,019 97.31%
2011 878,685 18.21% 873,874 20.82% 1,210,600 72.19% −4,811 99.45%
2012 1,016,237 15.65% 980,518 12.20% 1,338,110 73.28% −35,719 96.49%
2013 1,148,365 13.00% 1,077,307 9.87% 1,438,891 74.87% −71,058 93.81%
2014 1,246,107 8.51% 1,146,866 6.46% 1,550,491 73.97% −99,241 92.04%
2015 1,489,255 19.51% 1,240,419 8.16% 1,508,020 82.25% −248,836 83.29%
2016 1,539,166 3.35% 1,284,970 3.59% 1,555,934 82.59% −254,196 83.48%
2017 1,472,710 −4.32% 1,343,530 4.56% 1,666,376 80.63% −129,180 91.23%
2018 1,618,095 9.87% 1,518,790 13.04% 1,943,675 78.14% −99,305 93.86%
2019 1,786,379 10.40% 1,546,142 1.80% 1,960,634 78.86% −240,237 86.55%
Sou ce: Au ho ’s p epa a ion (2021)
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70
Sho -Te m Equa ion:
DLTAX = –0.068891 + 1.529412 DLGDP + 1.076803 DINF – 2.310360 DBIR +
+ 0.204817 DLNTR – 0.978086 (ECT) – 1 (4)
F om he ECM equa ion model, i can be seen ha he coin eg a ion coe icien ha
unc ions as an adjus men elemen (speed o adjus men ), namely ECT, is nega i e a
−0.978086 wi h a signi ican p obabili y a α = 5% (0.05), which is equal o 0.0001.
The e o e, his ECM es ing model can be said o be alid. The ECT coe icien alue o
−0.978086 indica es ha sho - e m balance luc ua ions will be co ec ed owa ds long-
e m equilib ium. In he i s yea , 97.81% o he adjus men p ocess occu s and 2.19%
o he adjus men p ocess mani es s in he ollowing yea s.
The mu ual signi ica ion es (F-s a is ic es ) showed ha he esul s o OLS p o-
cessing o he long e m calcula ed F alue (F-s a is ic) is 332.3100 wi h a p obabili y
o 0.000000 < he alue o α = 5% (0.05), wi h a 95% con idence le el. The esul s o
da a p ocessing o he sho e m using ECM analysis p oduce a calcula ed F alue o
14.78123, wi h a signi ican F-s a is ical p obabili y, which is equal o 0.000057 < han
he alue o α = 5%. Thus i can be concluded ha he independen a iables (GDP,
in la ion, BI a e and exchange a e) oge he ha e a signi ican e ec on he dependen
a iable ( ax e enue).
The coe icien o de e mina ion es based on he esul s o p ocessing he OLS
model da a o he long e m ob ained an adjus ed R² o 0.985866, while he esul s o
da a p ocessing o he ECM model ob ained an adjus ed R² alue o 0.792880, meaning
ha he in luence o he independen a iables GDP, in la ion, BI a e, and he exchange
a e a ec s he dependen a iable o e enue ax in Indonesia is 79.29%. The emaining
20.71% is in luenced by a iables ou side he model.
3.2. Discussion
Tax e enue is he mos signi ican sou ce o s a e e enues in luencing he en i e eco-
nomic sys em and he coun y’s de elopmen . The u u e di ec ion and amoun o ax
e enue should be well de e mined o p epa e he S a e Budge and se he p ojec ion o
economic ac i i y g ow h o a na ion. Se e al mac oeconomic indica o s’ pe o mance
ha e been s udied o ha e ela ionship o he ax e enue. In his s udy, he e ec o ou
mac oeconomic a iables, i.e. GDP, in la ion, in e es a es, and exchange a es, o he
Indonesia’s ax e enue in long- and sho - e m a e analyzed using ECM. The esul s
showed ha each a iable has di e en e ec on he ax e enue.
3.2.1. E ec o GDP
Based on esea ch conduc ed in se e al coun ies, mac oeconomic imbalances and le -
els o economic ac i i y a e he main ac o s o d i e s o ax elas ici y o ax e enue
(Muibi and Sinbo, 2013). Go e nmen ax e enue depends no only on changes in ax
policy bu also on many o he mac oeconomic ac o s. Though he e a e changes in ax
Yossinomi a e al. De e mining he Fu u e Di ec ion and Amoun o Tax Re enue in Indonesia Using an E o Co ec ion Model (ECM)
71
policy, se e al mac oeconomic ac o s a e able o in luence ax collec ion (Neog and
Gau , 2020). The quan i a i e analysis’s indings show ha he GDP a iable’s posi i e
and conside able impac on ax e enue in he long- and sho - e m es ima ion (ECM) is
ep esen ed by he esul s. A numbe o o he s udies connec he pa e n o ela ionships
be ween GDP and ax e enue and come o he same conclusion: GDP has a posi i e and
conside able impac on ax e enue (A iwayo, 2018; Baba unde e al., 2017; Dahal, 2020;
Handoko e al., 2014; Muibi and Sinbo, 2013; Zhang and Cui, 2008).
This long- and sho - e m posi i e signi ican e ec is also illus a ed om he esul s
o he desc ip i e analysis. Du ing he 2000–2019 pe iod, 2008 was he yea wi h he
highes GDP g ow h, namely an inc ease o 25.25% om 2007. This is in line wi h he
ealiza ion o ax e enues in 2008, which eached 108.12% o he a ge se and was also
he highes pe cen age o achie emen du ing he 2000–2019 pe iod. The 2015–2019 pe-
iod wi nessed he lowes GDP g ow h, which was below 10%, whe eas in p e ious yea s,
namely 2000–2014, GDP g ow h was always abo e 10%. The lean pe iod aligns wi h he
ealiza ion o ax e enue in he las i e yea s, namely 2015–2019, which saw he la ges
ax e enue sho alls, wi h an a e age pe cen age o ax e enue a ge achie emen o
only 87.68% pe yea .
3.2.2. E ec o In la ion (INF)
In la ion will educe he pu chasing powe o money ha has been ob ained by he public.
In la ion causes an inc ease in p oduc ion cos s and a dec ease in sales, which esul s in a
dec ease in p oduce income, which is he basis o axa ion. The exis ence o in la ion will
also lead o a all in economic ac i i y, which in u n esul s in less money coming in as
axes. The ou comes o he quan i a i e esea ch demons a ed a s ong posi i e long- and
sho - e m associa ion be ween INF and TAX. Theo e ically, he link be ween INF and
TAX should be nega i e, bu his esul con adic s ha . Nume ous esea ch examining
he ela ionship be ween he pa e n o he in la ion a e and ax e enue ha e also dis-
co e ed esul s ha de y heo y, namely, ha in la ion has a a o able and conside able
impac on ax income (A iwayo, 2018; Rena a and Hidaya , 2016; Za oomi e al., 2020)
This long- and sho - e m posi i e signi ican e ec is also illus a ed om he esul s
o he desc ip i e analysis. The in la ion a e in Indonesia du ing he pe iod 2000–2008
was qui e high and luc ua ing, wi h an a e age o 9.42% pe yea . The high a e o
in la ion du ing he 2000–2008 pe iod had no nega i e e ec on ax e enue. The a e -
age ax e enue ealiza ion du ing he 2000–2008 pe iod ac ually eached 100.41% o
he p ede e mined a ge . The in la ion a e in Indonesia o he las i e yea s, namely
2015–2019, ends o be low and s able, wi h an a e age o 3.17% pe yea . This condi ion
is di e en om he p e ious wo yea s, namely 2013–2014, whe e he in la ion a e was
abo e 8%. In ac , he low and s able in la ion a e du ing he 2015–2019 pe iod did no
a ec he ealiza ion o ax e enue. In he las i e yea s, ax e enue has expe ienced
he la ges sho all, wi h an a e age pe cen age o ax e enue achie emen o only
87.68% pe yea .
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Acco ding o he s udy’s indings, ax e enue is posi i ely and signi ican ly impac ed
by in la ion. This is so because ising in la ion a es lead o highe selling p ices, which
aise ax eceip s. The posi i e e ec o in la ion on ax e enue migh also be assumed
when in la ion is low and can be con olled by he go e nmen ; howe e , companies and
socie y do no espond o low in la ion. The e o e, e en wi h a dec ease in he a e o
in la ion, companies end no o inc ease hei in es men ac i i ies. The same occu s wi h
economic ansac ions ca ied ou by he public, which in he end do no lead o an inc ease
in ax e enue. In ac , lowe in la ion educes ax e enues due o low selling p ices.
3.2.3. E ec o he Bank Indonesia In e es Ra e (BIR)
An inc ease in BI in e es a es (BIR) esul s in an inc ease in in e es a es a comme -
cial banks, which will make people mo e likely o sa e hei money in banks compa ed
o in es ing in he eal sec o . Consequen ly, employmen dec eases, which esul s in
a educ ion in ax e enue. A ise in in e es a es will also educe public consump ion
pa e ns, and a dec ease in public consump ion esul s in lowe ed ax e enues. F om he
esul s o he quan i a i e analysis, BIR has a nega i e insigni ican e ec in he long un
on TAX. This inding is also illus a ed by he esul s o he desc ip i e analysis in which
BIR luc ua ed om 2000 o 2008, wi h an a e age o 11.01% pe yea . BIR luc ua ions
du ing he 2000–2008 pe iod did no eally a ec TAX. Du ing he 2000–2008 pe iod, he
a e age TAX eached 100.41% pe yea om he a ge se by he go e nmen . The low
and s able BIR du ing he 2009–2019 pe iod also had no e ec on TAX. In he 2009–2019
pe iod, TAX always expe ienced a sho all e e y yea wi h a pe cen age o achie emen
o 92.05% annually. In he long e m, BIR has no e ec on TAX because du ing he e-
sea ch pe iod (2000–2019) he BIR se by Bank Indonesia was s ill accommoda i e o
he Indonesian economy. Du ing he 2000–2019 pe iod, he a e age BIR was 8.35% pe
yea , wi h an accommoda i e BIR in e es a e, which did no signi ican ly a ec economic
ansac ions conduc ed by in es o s and he public.
In line wi h heo y, he esul s o he quan i a i e analysis o BIR ha e a signi ican
nega i e e ec on TAX in he sho e m. This nega i e ela ionship be ween BIR and
TAX is also illus a ed by he esul s o he desc ip i e analysis. The high BIR a e in
2001 was 17.62%, which du ing he 2000–2019 pe iod was he highes BIR a e. The high
BIR in 2001 ecei ed a nega i e esponse, wi h he pe cen age o TAX achie emen in
2001 o 100.44% o he se a ge , down 3.09% compa ed o he p e ious yea , whe eas
in 2000, he pe cen age o TAX eached 104.37% o he se a ge . This condi ion was
also e lec ed in 2005, whe e BIR inc eased by 6.83 poin s compa ed o he p e ious yea ,
namely o 12.75%, whe eas in 2004 BIR was only 5.92%. The inc ease in BIR ecei ed a
nega i e esponse wi h a TAX sho all in 2005. The pe cen age o TAX achie emen ell
compa ed o he p e ious yea , which was 98.60% o he se a ge , a dec ease o 2.25%
compa ed o he p e ious yea . This esul compa es wi h 2004, whe e he pe cen age o
TAX eached 100, which is 85% o he a ge se . The signi ican nega i e esul o he BIR
on ax e enue in he sho e m is hough o be due o he di ec esponse o he BIR a e
Yossinomi a e al. De e mining he Fu u e Di ec ion and Amoun o Tax Re enue in Indonesia Using an E o Co ec ion Model (ECM)
73
inc ease by banks by inc easing he c edi in e es a e. The decision o he banking sec o
o aise c edi in e es a es esul ed in companies educing hei in es men ac i i ies,
and he public also educed economic ansac ions, which in u n educed ax e enues.
3.2.4. E ec o Exchange Ra es (NTR)
Due o he endency o in es o s o exe cise cau ion when making in es men s, he exchange
a e is one o he indica ions ha in luence ac i i y in he s ock ma ke and money ma ke .
The economy and he s ock ma ke a e nega i ely impac ed by he d op in he upiah’s
exchange a e e sus o he cu encies, pa icula ly he US dolla . Following is he me hod
by which he exchange a e has a nega i e impac on ax collec ion. The cos o p oducing
p oduc s and se ices ises as a esul o an inc ease in he exchange a e (weakening e sus
he dolla ), which is hen passed on o he consume in he inal selling p ice. Highe p ices
weaken consume pu chasing powe , which ul ima ely dec eases ax e enue. In sum, cu -
ency dep ecia ion esul s in a gene al inc ease in domes ic p ice le els, which esul s in a
dec ease in consume pu chasing powe (Wilya, 2015). In he end, ax e enues a e educed.
The NTR a iable in he long- e m es ima ion demons a es ha NTR has a nega i e
negligible connec ion wi h TAX based on he indings o he quan i a i e s udy. The sho -
e m es ima ion (ECM) shows ha he NTR has a posi i e insigni ican ela ionship wi h
TAX. Tha is, TAX is no a ec ed by changes in NTR. Acco ding o heo y, he e is a
ela ionship be ween NTR and TAX ha in luences how much he upiah app ecia es (NTR
weakens/s eng hens), and as a esul , TAX is expec ed o ise. This inding con adic s ha
idea. Di e gen ou comes om he idea ha e been obse ed in se e al esea ch ha link
he pa e n o he ela ionship be ween he exchange a e ( upiah exchange a e) and ax
income. Fo example, a s udy conduc ed by Mispiyan i & K is an i (2018) showed ha he
impac o he exchange a e on ax eceip s is nega i e and negligible. In he meanwhile,
s udies by Sumida ini (2018), a di e en se o indings, namely ha he impac o he
exchange a e on ax collec ion is bo h a o able and conside able.
The nonsigni ican nega i e ela ionship be ween NTR and TAX in he long e m can
be seen om he esul s o he desc ip i e analysis, whe e he de elopmen o Indonesia’s
NTR du ing he 2000–2019 pe iod ended o luc ua e and dep ecia e. The a e age NTR
du ing he 2000–2019 pe iod was IDR 10,841 pe US dolla . TAX du ing he pe iod
2000–2019 a e aged 765 illion upiahs pe yea wi h he pe cen age o achie emen
agains he a ge se by he go e nmen o 95.81% pe yea . TAX de elopmen du ing
2000–2019 ended o mo e below he a ge se o expe ienced a sho all.
The insigni ican posi i e ela ionship be ween NTR and TAX in he sho e m is
illus a ed by TAX in 2008, which eached 108.12% o he p ede e mined a ge , which
is he highes pe cen age o achie emen du ing he 2000–2019 pe iod. This is in line
wi h he NTR in 2008, whe e he upiah dep ecia ed by 1,531 poin s compa ed o 2007, o
10,950 upiahs pe US dolla . This compa es wi h p e ious pe iods, namely 2002–2008,
whe e he mo emen o he upiah agains he US dolla was s ill below 10,000 upiahs
pe US dolla . Dep ecia ion ( he upiah exchange a e up o down agains he US dolla )
in 2008 was ollowed by an inc ease in he ealiza ion o ax e enues in 2008.
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74
3.2.5. The ela ionship and in luence be ween mac oeconomic a iables and ax
e enues
Mac oeconomics is obse ed o ha e a e y signi ican ela ionship and in luence on ax
e enues, his is indica ed by he adjus ed R² alue o 0.792880 om he esul s o he
ECM analysis. I means ha he in luence o mac oeconomic a iables used in his s udy
is e y signi ican on axes income in Indonesia wi h a pe cen age o 79.29%, while he
emaining 20.71% is in luenced by a iables ou side he ex e nal model. The p e ious
s udies in o he coun ies ound he same e idence, ha i he go e nmen wan s o in-
c ease ax e enues, hen he impo an hing ha he go e nmen mus pay a en ion o is
gua an eeing mac oeconomic condi ions in he coun y. In China, he coo dina ion be ween
mac oeconomics and ax e enues is needed, and i should be he basic ule when making
ax policy (Zhenyu & Huqin, 2009). The same condi ion was ound in Nige ia, in which
he mac oeconomic ins abili y and he le el o economic ac i i y a e he main d i e s o
ax collec ion (Muibi and Sinbo, 2013). A s udy conduc ed by Baba unde e al. (2017) in
A ica in de e mining he axa ion e enue and economic g ow h in A ica, showed ha
in de eloping a comp ehensi e ax s uc u e o model, he go e nmen mus pay a en ion
o he coun y’s mac oeconomic condi ions, so ha he applied ax s uc u e can g ow,
main ain and main ain i s ax economic base so as o encou age economic pe o mance.
Mi o ić e al. (2019), who examined he modelling o ax in luence in Spain, s a ed ha
he o m o ax is closely ela ed o he mac oeconomic amewo k. These s a emen s a e
s eng hened by a esea ch conduc ed o de e mine he ac o s in luencing ax e enues
in India; i showed an e idence ha se e al mac oeconomic a iables a e de e minan s
a ec ing he pe o mance o ax e enues (Neog and Gau , 2020).
The esul s o he cu en s udy, as well as empi ical e idence in se e al o he coun ies,
show ha he amoun o u u e ax e enue will be la gely de e mined by he in luence
o mac oeconomic a iables. Thus, he go e nmen mus pay a en ion o and main ain
he s abili y o mac oeconomic a iables, so ha he a ge o inc ease in ax e enue can
be ealized.
4. Conclusion and ecommenda ion
This s udy p o ides inpu o he go e nmen in implemen ing iscal policy, concluding
ha he de e mina ion o he ax e enue a ge amoun mus be e e lec indica o s o
ongoing mac oeconomic condi ions o be mo e ealis ic in acco dance wi h economic
de elopmen s. The se ing o un ealis ic ax e enue a ge s will ha e an impac on he
go e nmen ’s ailu e o ca y ou i s budge a y unc ions.
Rela ed o i s s a egic ole in he coun y’s economy, axes expe ience isk in he
o m o ealized ax e enues ou side he a ge s se by he go e nmen o known as a
sho all. The end o ax sho all in Indonesia began in 2002 and con inues o occu
and has inc eased yea ly. As s a ed in heo y and also p o en om esea ch esul s, he
in luence o mac oeconomic a iables, which consis o g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP),
Yossinomi a e al. De e mining he Fu u e Di ec ion and Amoun o Tax Re enue in Indonesia Using an E o Co ec ion Model (ECM)
75
in la ion (INF), BI Ra e (BIR), and exchange a e ( upiah exchange a e agains he US
dolla NTR), on ax e enue, especially ha o GDP has a e y dominan in luence on
ax e enue bo h in he long and sho e m.
The esponse o ax e enue o economic de elopmen mus be e en g ea e because
he la ge he esponse o ax e enue o he inc ease and de elopmen o mac oeconomic
indica o s, he g ea e he po en ial o inc eased ax e enue. The go e nmen mus also
main ain he s abili y o mac oeconomic a iables. As demons a ed in his s udy, he e is a
s ong in luence o mac oeconomic a iables on ax e enues in bo h he long and sho e m.
Fiscal policy is essen ial o a coun y’s economy, especially when he economy is
expe iencing a slowdown. Go e nmen spending and axa ion a e o ms o iscal policy
ha s imula e a coun y’s economy. Fiscal policy in he o m o ax e enue will inc ease
e enue in a coun y. The g ea e s a e e enue will inc ease he amoun o s a e spending,
and wi h he inc ease in s a e spending, he GDP will also inc ease. In ac , GDP will
inc ease mo e han public spending i go e nmen spending is alloca ed o he domes ic
sec o ; his can esul in a mul iplie e ec , making he coun y’s economy g ow and de el-
op. The de elopmen o he economy will inc ease s a e e enues, especially ax e enues.
I is concluded ha he changes in he u u e ax e enues a e la gely de e mined by
he s abili y o mac oeconomic a iables. The e o e, he policymake s o he go e nmen
should implemen policies ha can main ain he s abili y o mac oeconomic a iables so
ha an inc ease in he scope o ax e enue can be ealized. Some o he mos basic policies
ha he go e nmen o policymake s can implemen a e o ensu e ha he go e nmen
has good legi imacy, accoun abili y, and esponsi eness o de eloping economic, social,
and poli ical condi ions wi hin and ou side he coun y.
The indings in his s udy could become empi ical knowledge and b oaden insigh s
ega ding axa ion and he economy in Indonesia, which o cou se, can also be applied
and de eloped by o he coun ies, especially coun ies whose s a e inancial condi ions
a e he same as Indonesia. The mechanisms ega ding s eps o policies ha mus be aken
by he go e nmen o main ain he s abili y o mac oeconomic a iables ha a ec ax
e enue is ecommended o u he esea ch.
5. Decla a ions
The con en s o he pape ha e been e iewed and app o ed by each co-au ho , and he e
a e no compe ing inancial in e es s o disclose. We a es ha he submission is unique
and is no al eady being conside ed by ano he scien i ic jou nal.
Re e ences
Adam, A., Kammas, P., & Lapa inas, A. (2015). Income inequali y and he ax s uc u e: e idence om
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