Babadjano a, Mashkhu a; Bobojono , Ih iyo ; Bekchano , Maksud; Kuhn, Lena;
Glauben, Thomas
A icle — Published Ve sion
Can domes ic whea a ming mee he clima e change-
induced challenges o na ional ood secu i y in
Uzbekis an?
In e na ional Jou nal o Wa e Resou ces De elopmen
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Leibniz Ins i u e o Ag icul u al De elopmen in T ansi ion Economies (IAMO), Halle (Saale)
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Babadjano a, Mashkhu a; Bobojono , Ih iyo ; Bekchano , Maksud; Kuhn,
Lena; Glauben, Thomas (2024) : Can domes ic whea a ming mee he clima e change-induced
challenges o na ional ood secu i y in Uzbekis an?, In e na ional Jou nal o Wa e Resou ces
De elopmen , ISSN 1360-0648, Taylo & F ancis, London, Vol. 40, Iss. 3, pp. 448-462,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/07900627.2023.2290523 ,
h ps://www. and online.com/doi/ ull/10.1080/07900627.2023.2290523
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
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Can domes ic whea a ming mee he clima e
change-induced challenges o na ional ood secu i y in
Uzbekis an?
Mashkhu a Babadjano a
a,b
, Ih iyo Bobojono
b
, Maksud Bekchano
c,d,e
,
Lena Kuhn
b
and Thomas Glauben
b
a
In e na ional Ag icul u al Economics, Tashken S a e Ag a ian Uni e si y, Tashken , Uzbekis an;
b
Depa men o Ag icul u al Ma ke s, Leibniz Ins i u e o Ag icul u al De elopmen in T ansi ion Economies
(IAMO), Halle (Saale), Ge many;
c
Depa men o En i onmen Sciences, In o ma ics and S a is ics (DAIS), Ca’
Fosca i Uni e si y o Venice, Venice, I aly;
d
Economic Impac s o Clima e Change and Policy (ECIP) Di ision,
Eu o-Medi e anean Cen e on Clima e Change (CMCC), Venice, I aly;
e
RFF-CMCC Eu opean Ins i u e on
Economics and he En i onmen (EIEE), Milan, I aly
ABSTRACT
This s udy is he i s o de elop ood supply and demand p ojec-
ions o e he 21s cen u y o Uzbekis an by conside ing he
combined e ec s o clima e change and soil saliniza ion. The
s udy esul s sugges ha ising summe empe a u es and soil
salini y will conside ably educe whea p oduc ion. P ojec ions
indica e ha a la ge whea supply–demand gap will eme ge in
he mid e m, pa icula ly unde he SSP3-RCP7.0 scena io. Fo he
wo mo e pessimis ic scena ios, supply losses o abou 24–29% a e
expec ed by he end o he cen u y. Supply–demand gaps o up o
2.7 million ons o whea would pose se ious challenges o na ional
ood secu i y.
ARTICLE HISTORY
Recei ed 9 May 2023
Accep ed 28 No embe 2023
KEYWORDS
Clima e change impac ; ood
secu i y; i iga ed whea
a ming; c op yield
simula ion; soil salini y;
Uzbekis an
In oduc ion
Global clima e change poses a se ious h ea o he ecosys ems, ood p oduc ion
and indus ies in many pa s o he wo ld (In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e
Change [IPCC], 2022). Uzbekis an is one o he ho spo s o global wa ming, wi h
nume ous s udies ha ing made e iden ha global wa ming is causing a educ ion
in i e uno and inc easing wa e sca ci y in he egion (Gosling & A nell, 2016;
Reye e al., 2017). I iga ed ag icul u e, which accoun s o abou 90% o o al wa e
wi hd awals in Cen al Asia, is he mos ulne able o empe a u e a ia ions and
educed wa e supply (F enken, 2013). Inc easing c op wa e consump ion equi e-
men s and e apo a ion losses om i iga ion sys ems ha e al eady added o he
wa e de ici challenge in he egion (Reye e al., 2017). Recen esea ch has ocused
on he impac o clima e change on o al ac o p oduc i i y g ow h in ag icul u e
CONTACT Mashkhu a Babadjano a [email p o ec ed]
Supplemen al da a o his a icle can be accessed a h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/07900627.2023.2290523.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT
2024, VOL. 40, NO. 3, 448–462
h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/07900627.2023.2290523
© 2024 The Au ho (s). Published by In o ma UK Limi ed, ading as Taylo & F ancis G oup.
This is an Open Access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/
licenses/by/4.0/), which pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly
ci ed. The e ms on which his a icle has been published allow he pos ing o he Accep ed Manusc ip in a eposi o y by he au ho (s) o
wi h hei consen .
(Ki ui e al., 2023; O iz-Bobea e al., 2021). Clima e change-induced wa e supply
educ ions in he egion will lead o conside able inancial losses wi hin and ou side
ag icul u e (Bekchano , 2014; Bekchano & Lame s, 2016). P e ious s udies ha e
sugges ed ha clima e change migh ha e a posi i e impac on ce ain sub egions
in he sho e m (Mi zabae , 2013; Somme e al., 2013); howe e , widesp ead
nega i e e ec s a e ine i able in he mid e m (Bobojono & Aw-Hassan, 2014;
Bobojono e al., 2016).
Ano he se ious challenge o Uzbek ag icul u e is soil saliniza ion, which has esul ed
in conside able dec eases in ag icul u al p oduc ion (Khasano e al., 2023). Soil saliniza-
ion and land deg ada ion ha e become he mos p essing p oblems in he A al Sea
egion o Cen al Asia, pa icula ly in Uzbekis an, wi h 73.8% o he a ea a ound he Sou h
A al Sea being mode a ely saline and 7.5% being sligh ly saline (Duan e al., 2022). The
p ima y causes o soil saliniza ion in Uzbekis an a e poo land and g oundwa e manage-
men (Eswa e al., 2021; Ib akhimo e al., 2007), and he use o phospho us-based
mine al e ilize s (Khasano e al., 2023). Soil saliniza ion is in ensi ied due o changes
in wea he a iabili y and wa e a ailabili y in d y egions, wi h shallow g oundwa e
le els unde wa e -sca ce condi ions (Co win, 2021; G eene e al., 2016). Highe empe a-
u es due o clima e change educe wa e a ailabili y, inc ease e apo anspi a ion and
consequen ly equi e addi ional i iga ion wa e applica ions, when saline wa e om
g oundwa e aqui e s o o he al e na i e sou ces is o en used o mee c op wa e
demand (Mukhopadhyay e al., 2021; Oku & Ö çen, 2020; Schlenke e al., 2005). I
i iga ion wa e applica ions a e educed due o lowe ed wa e supplies, capilla y
inc eases due o high e apo a ion induced by clima e change also lead o highe soil
salini y a ound he c op oo zones.
Despi e his icious ci cle, he e ec s o soil salini y ha e no been ully conside ed in
mos o he p e ious p ojec ions on he e ec s o clima e change on c op yields (e.g.,
Ha ield e al., 2015; Lobell e al., 2011). Ou s udy con ibu es o ongoing esea ch by
using g anula da a and implemen ing panel da a analysis o model he combined e ec s
o soil saliniza ion and clima e change on he whea supply o Uzbekis an, one o he
ho spo s o clima e change. This app oach allows o a de ailed spa ial analysis o he
clima e change impac s on whea yields, a s a egic s aple c op ac oss Uzbekis an.
Di e ing om o he app oaches, such as he Rica dian app oach, he panel da a app oach
allows o con olling ime-in a ian omi ed a iables beyond empe a u e and p ecipi-
a ion (Deschenes & G eens one, 2012). Mo eo e , by eg essing c op yields on biophy-
sical ac o s, we de eloped a s a is ical c op yield model based on empi ical da a, which is
mo e eliable han biophysical c op simula ion models (O iz-Bobea & Tack, 2018).
Addi ionally, we applied a ‘sha ed socio-economic pa hways– adia i e concen a ion
pa hways’ (SSP-RCP) clima e scena ios amewo k ( an Vuu en e al., 2014) o he con ex
o Uzbekis an and in eg a ed i wi h he es ima ed ‘clima e-whea yield’ unc ion o assess
he u u e clima e change impac s on ood demand and supply o he i s ime in
Uzbekis an.
Acco ding o ou p ojec ions, he supply o whea is an icipa ed o dec ease conside -
ably due o hea and salini y s ess, esul ing in subs an ial ood demand supply gaps a e
2040. Gi en he limi edness o a ailable c oplands and wa e esou ces, signi ican
imp o emen s in e ilize -use e iciency, soil managemen and he de elopmen o high-
yielding a ie ies will be necessa y o ensu e local ood secu i y in he u u e.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT 449
Da a and me hods
S udy a ea
Uzbekis an is a double land-locked coun y loca ed in he cen e o Cen al Asia (Figu e 1).
O e 40% o i s 35.6 million people eside in u al a eas (S a e S a is ics Commi ee o
Uzbekis an [SSCU], 2022). Due o consis en popula ion g ow h, na ional ood secu i y has
become a ma e o signi ican poli ical impo ance in he coun y.
The clima e o he coun y is ex emely con inen al, wi h an a e age mon hly empe a u e
o 13.7°C, peaking a 28.5°C in July (Figu e 2). Tempe a u es can plunge o −35°C in he no h
o he coun y du ing win e and soa o 50°C in he sou h du ing summe (as obse ed om
1991 o 2020). The coun y expe iences a wide ange o annual p ecipi a ion, a ying be ween
200 and 550 mm in mos a eas. Ye , a eas in he dese and s eppe zones ecei e less han
200 mm, while moun ainous a eas ecei e mo e han 900 mm (Khalikulo e al., 2016).
Ag icul u al p oduc ion plays a pi o al ole in he na ional economy, con ibu ing 16% o
g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) and employing 44% o he labou o ce (Djanibeko e al., 2010;
SSCU, 2022). Whea p oduc ion, in pa icula , is c ucial o na ional ood secu i y, as lou -based
ood p oduc s p o ide o e 52% o he die a y calo ic in ake (Abdullae e al., 2009; Chabo &
Tondel, 2011). Following he collapse o he o me So ie Union’s uni ied ood supply and
dis ibu ion sys em in 1991, Uzbekis an’s access o s a egic ood impo s became limi ed and
insecu e. Consequen ly, he go e nmen in oduced ag icul u al e o ms o inc ease domes ic
whea p oduc ion and enhance ‘independence in ce eals’ h ough policies such as se ing
whea p oduc ion a ge s, subsidizing inpu s (i iga ion wa e , mine al e ilize s, uel, machin-
e y), and egula ing whea and lou p ices (Lomba dozzi & Djanibeko , 2021).
Figu e 1. Uzbekis an and i s p o inces. Sou ce: Au ho s’ own illus a ion.
450 M. BABADJANOVA ET AL.
Thanks o he e o ms, he a ea o na ional whea p oduc ion inc eased apidly om
abou 627,000 o o e 1.3 million ha be ween 1992 and 1996, allowing he coun y o
achie e independence in ce eals (Figu e 3). The expansion o whea p oduc ion was
achie ed h ough educing a eas p e iously used o odde p oduc ion and some co on
a eas as well. The coun y’s whea yields ha e g adually inc eased o e he yea s, eaching
Figu e 2. A e age mon hly empe a u e and ain all in Uzbekis an, 1991–2020. Sou ce: Au ho s using
da a om Wo ld Bank (2022).
Figu e 3. Whea yields and ha es ed a ea in Uzbekis an, 1992-2020. Sou ce: Au ho s based on da a
om FAO (2023).
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT 451
4900 kg/ha in 2009 due o he in oduc ion o sui able whea a ie ies based on each
egion’s soil and clima ic condi ions. Ano he d i e was a me s’ imp o ed knowledge
and expe ience wi h cul i a ion p ac ices and whea a ie ies. Cu en ly, whea and
co on a e he mos essen ial c ops and a e widely cul i a ed h oughou he coun y.
Whea cul i a ion a eas ha a e i iga ed accoun o 85%, while he emaining 15% a e
a eas o ain ed a ming. Howe e , almos all he ain ed whea a ming a eas a e loca ed
in he p o inces o Kashkada ya, Jizzakh and Sama kand. I iga ed whea a ming akes
place in la e au umn, win e and sp ing, hus win e and sp ing p ecipi a ion is c ucial o
he pe o mance o i iga ed whea a ming. Du ing he win e and sp ing, he ample
p ecipi a ion sa u a es he soil wi h mois u e, educing he need o addi ional i iga ion.
Analy ical app oach and da a
To assess whea supply and demand p ojec ions, we calcula ed he p oduc ion elas ici ies
o impo an p oduc ion and clima e ac o s in he i s s ep. These calcula ed p oduc ion
elas ici ies we e hen used o de elop he supply p ojec ions.
P oduc ion elas ici ies
Fo ou analysis in he i s s ep, we employed a Cobb–Douglas p oduc ion unc ion in log
o m:
whe e Yi ep esen s he o al ou pu in dis ic i and a ime ; b is he slope coe icien ; he
a iable Land s ands o o al ha es ed land ( housands ha); Labou is he labou alue
used; Fe is o al (chemical) e ilize ; IW ep esen s he o al amoun o i iga ion wa e ;
T ep esen s he a e age empe a u e o each season (W, win e ; Sp, sp ing; S, summe ; A,
au umn); P ep esen s each season’s o al p ecipi a ion; GWS ep esen s g oundwa e
salini y; SS ep esen s soil salini y; and ui is he e o e m.
A ixed e ec model can cap u e he ela ionship be ween ag icul u al p oduc ion and
clima e a iables by conside ing ha unobse ed ime-in a ian ac o s o unobse ed
a iables a e cons an (Allison, 2009). Many p io s udies ha e used ixed-e ec models o
measu e he impac o clima e change on di e en c ops wi hin a panel da a amewo k
(Ahmad e al., 2014; Mi zabae , 2013; Sadozai e al., 2019). Addi ionally, a Hausman es
con i med he sui abili y o a ixed e ec s model o ou da a.
To analyse he clima e, biophysical and economic ac o s in luencing whea p oduc-
i i y, we cons uc ed a panel da ase encompassing he yea s be ween 2008 and 2017,
and 158 o he coun y’s 176 dis ic s (SSCU, 2022). We ob ained he necessa y da a om
mul iple sou ces, including Beaudoing e al. (2020), Rodell e al. (2004), SSCU (2020), he
Minis y o Wa e Resou ces o he Republic o Uzbekis an (MWRRU, 2020), and he Global
Rain all Map in Nea Real-Time (GSMaP_NRT) (2023) p epa ed by he JAXA Global Rain all
Wa ch o Japan’s Ae ospace Explo a ion Agency.
Pa icula ly, we collec ed p o ince-le el seconda y da a on he o al whea yields and
ha es ed a ea ac oss dis ic s o bo h i iga ed and ain ed a ming om he SSCU (2020).
452 M. BABADJANOVA ET AL.
Da a on he o al cos s o ni ogen and phospho us and labou use we e also ob ained om
he same sou ce (SSCU, 2020). Da a on dis ic le el i iga ion wa e use o Sep embe –
Decembe and Ma ch–May we e p o ided by he egional b anches o he MWRRU (2020).
We excluded Janua y and Feb ua y as he soil is ypically ozen in hese mon hs, and hence
no i iga ion o leaching akes place. Da a on empe a u e we e ex ac ed om global clima e
da abases (Beaudoing e al., 2020; Rodell e al., 2004). We used he mean empe a u e o he
ele an pe iod om Sep embe o June, omi ing he (pos -) ha es pe iod o July–Augus .
Da a on p ecipi a ion, pa icula ly cumula i e ain all ac oss dis ic s o he same pe iod we e
de i ed om he GSMaP_NRT p epa ed by he JAXA Global Rain all Wa ch o Japan’s
Ae ospace Explo a ion Agency (see also El aza o e al., 2021). Da a on mon hly soil and
g oundwa e salini y le els we e ob ained om he egional b anches o MWRRU (2020), and
we calcula ed annual salini y le els as he a e age o mon hly le els.
Table 1 p o ides summa y s a is ics and de ini ions o he a iables used in he
eg ession model. The dependen a iable in he model is he log o o al whea p oduc-
ion. The a e age whea p oduc ion ac oss he dis ic s is 39,217 ons; he a e age whea
sown a ea is 8283 ha. Gi en he da a a ailabili y, some in e media e inpu s in whea
cul i a ion, such as labou and e ilize s, a e measu ed in economic e ms (in UZS), while
i iga ion wa e is measu ed in physical e ms ( housands m
3
). The a e age e ilize cos
pe dis ic is 2.498 million UZS and he a e age labou cos pe dis ic is 2.357 million
UZS. Fo 10 mon hs, he dis ic -le el a e age i iga ion wa e use is 134,000 m
3
.
The a e age empe a u e ac oss he dis ic s in win e , sp ing, summe and au umn is 1.5,
16.5, 27.8 and 14.7°C, espec i ely. P ecipi a ion almos does no occu in June, and i iga ed
a eas ecei e abou 80 mm o ain o snow all pe season in win e and sp ing on a e age.
Due o seasonal changes, he a e age salini y le els o soil and g oundwa e a e
epo ed as annual a e ages, anging om 0.1 o 7.6 g/l. Lowe soil salini y le els o
0.1–0.4 g/l a e ound in he egions o Sama kand and Namangan, while highe soil salini y
le els o 2.1 g/l a e de ec ed in egions a ound he A al Sea. The highes salini y le el o 7.6
g/l is ound in he egions o Ka akalpaks an, Kho ezm and Bukha a.
Table 1. Summa y s a is ics.
Va iables Desc ip ion Mean SD Minimum Maximum
To al p oduc ion To al whea p oduc ion ( ons) 39.217 23.901 38 139.840
Land To al whea a ea sown (ha) 8.283 5.552 105 52.200
Labou Labou cos s (1000 UZS) 2.357 2.195 9 17.469
Fe ilize Fe ilize cos s (1000 UZS) 2.498 2.003 13 17.690
Wa e used o
i iga ion
To al i iga ion wa e , Sep embe –May (Janua y–
Feb ua y excluded) (1000 m
3
)
134 72 0.6 467
Win e empe a u e Mean empe a u e o win e (Decembe –Feb ua y)
(°C)
1.5 3.4 −15.6 10.1
Sp ing empe a u e Mean empe a u e o sp ing (Ma ch–May) (°C) 16.5 3.5 −12.3 24.0
Summe empe a u e Mean empe a u e o summe (June) (°C) 27.8 3.7 4.0 34.5
Au umn empe a u e Mean empe a u e o au umn (Sep embe –
No embe ) (°C)
14.7 2.7 −2.8 21.4
Win e p ecipi a ion To al p ecipi a ion o win e (Decembe –Feb ua y)
(mm)
82.2 45.0 2.0 270.6
Sp ing p ecipi a ion To al p ecipi a ion o sp ing (Ma ch–May) (mm) 82.9 49.8 1.6 273.7
Summe p ecipi a ion To al p ecipi a ion o summe (June) (mm) 7.9 8.6 0 69.9
Au umn p ecipi a ion To al p ecipi a ion o au umn (Sep embe –
No embe ) (mm)
44.5 37.8 1.2 243.9
G oundwa e salini y A e age annual salini y (g l
−1
) 2.1 1.5 0.2 11.8
Soil salini y A e age annual salini y (g l
−1
) 2.1 1.3 0.1 7.6
No e: Exchange a e: US$1 = UZS 10,920.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT 453
Whea supply and demand p ojec ions
To es ima e u u e whea supply, we in eg a ed he p oduc ion model desc ibed abo e
wi h exis ing clima e p ojec ions’ da a om he Global Clima e Knowledge Po al (Wo ld
Bank, 2022), which p o ides seasonal empe a u e and p ecipi a ion p ojec ions ac oss
Uzbekis an om 2020 o 2100 unde a ious SSP-RCP scena ios. To de elop whea
demand p ojec ions, we conside ed na ional popula ion changes o e ime unde SSP
scena ios (IIASA, 2023) and a e age die a y whea consump ion equi emen s pe capi a.
As he Uzbek whea p oduc ion a ea has no changed o e he las decade (Figu e 3), we
assumed i o emain cons an in he u u e.
Rep esen a i e concen a ion pa hways (RCPs) a e ajec o ies o a mosphe ic g een-
house gas concen a ions as adop ed by he IPCC (2022). These pa hways co espond o
possible wa ming le els o e he yea s igge ed by g eenhouse gas emissions (Van
Vuu en e al., 2011). The RCPs conside ed he e, including RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP7.0 and
RCP8.5, a e labelled based on a possible ange o adia i e o cing in 2100. Highe alues
o RCP s and o highe le els o g eenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and hus highe le els o
empe a u e inc eases by 2100, while lowe le els o RCP a e ela ed o lowe empe a-
u es bu equi e high clima e change mi iga ion e o s.
Since he IPCC’s Fi h Assessmen Repo (2022), RCPs ha e been conside ed oge he
wi h so-called sha ed socio-economic pa hways (SSPs). The SSPs ep esen socio-
economic de elopmen s up o 2100 and a e used o elabo a e GHG emission scena ios
unde a ious clima e policies. Fi e SSP scena ios a e: SSP1 – Sus ainabili y (‘Taking he
G een Road’), SSP2 – ‘Middle o he Road’, SSP3 – Regional Ri al y (‘A Rocky Road’), SSP4 –
Inequali y (‘A Road Di ided’), and SSP5 – Fossil- uelled De elopmen (‘Taking he
Highway’) (Van Vuu en e al., 2014). In b ie , SSP1 s ands o low le els o ba ie s o
clima e change adap a ion and mi iga ion, and co esponds o low le els o global
empe a u e ises, being he mos desi able among all SSPs; SSP2 and SSP3 conside ing
mode a e and high le els o ba ie s o clima e change adap a ion and mi iga ion,
espec i ely. SSP4 ep esen s low le els o di icul y o in oducing mi iga ion op ions
bu s ong ba ie s o adap a ion e o s. SSP5 conside s high le els o di icul y o
implemen mi iga ion measu es bu low le els o challenges o adop ing adap a ion
op ions.
Fou combina ions o clima ic (RCP) and socio-economic de elopmen pa hways (SSPs)
a e globally ag eed among clima e expe s as s anda d scena ios (‘Tie 1’) o conduc
clima e policy esea ch, namely SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5
(O’Neill e al., 2016). These ou s anda d scena ios we e also adop ed in ou analysis o
whea supply and demand p ojec ions.
Resul s
The impac o clima e and esou ce a ailabili y on whea yields
The esul s o ou ixed e ec s eg ession analysis a e p esen ed in Table 2. As expec ed,
land, labou and e ilize we e ound o signi ican ly con ibu e o ag icul u al p oduc-
ion. Since whea yields a e highe in i iga ed a eas han in ain- ed a eas, i iga ion wa e
was ound o ha e a signi ican ly posi i e e ec on p oduc i i y, e en hough he sample
included non-i iga ed a eas. A 1% inc ease was associa ed wi h a 0.05% inc ease in
454 M. BABADJANOVA ET AL.
p oduc ion ou pu ac oss he whole sample. Howe e , excluding non-i iga ed a eas
would ha e esul ed in a conside ably la ge slope coe icien .
Tempe a u e also posi i ely con ibu ed o whea p oduc i i y, bu only in sp ing and
au umn/ all. A 1% inc ease in sp ing empe a u es was associa ed wi h an inc ease in c op
ou pu by 0.7%, while a 1% inc ease in au umn empe a u es ansla ed in o a 0.4%
inc ease in c op ou pu . Con e sely, empe a u e in he summe had a nega i e e ec on
p oduc i i y as excessi e hea d ies up he soil and inhibi s plan g ow h. A 1% inc ease in
summe empe a u es was associa ed wi h a 1.9% d op in p oduc ion ou pu .
The analysis e ealed ha p ecipi a ion le els ha e no signi ican impac on p oduc-
i i y, which can be a ibu ed o he ac ha he majo i y o he sample consis ed o
i iga ed a eas. Soil salini y was ound o ha e a nega i e ela ionship wi h p oduc ion,
wi h a 1% inc ease in soil salini y esul ing in a 0.09% dec ease in p oduc ion. Addi ionally,
he s udy ound ha g oundwa e salini y had a posi i e impac on p oduc i i y, as high
g oundwa e salini y is likely a sign o lowe wa e ables and educed sal accumula ion
nea he plan oo s. A 1% inc ease in g oundwa e salini y was associa ed wi h a 0.11%
inc ease in p oduc ion. The esul s we e also ound o be obus o modi ica ions in he
selec ed ime pe iod and o an inclusion o a andom e ec s model (see Table A1 in he
supplemen al da a online).
Na ional whea supply and demand p ojec ion unde a ious clima ic SSP-RCP
pa hways
Figu e 4 displays p ojec ions o u u e whea supply and demand, conside ing u u e
empe a u e and p ecipi a ion changes unde SSP-RCP scena ios, as well as an icipa ed
shi s in popula ion.
The SSP3-RCP7.0 (‘Regional i al y’) scena io ep esen s s ong ba ie s o clima e
change mi iga ion and adap a ion and leads o global mean empe a u e inc eases o
abo e 5°C. Unde his scena io, whea demand is expec ed o inc ease eno mously,
Table 2. Resul s o he ixed e ec panel model es ima es.
Va iables
Dependen a iable – o al whea p oduc ion
Coe icien S anda d e o - alue
Ln Land (ha) 0.448*** 0.023 19.3
Ln Labou (1000 UZS) 0.161*** 0.013 11.7
Ln Fe ilize (1000 UZS) 0.388*** 0.023 16.4
Ln I ig Wa e (1000 m
3
) 0.045* 0.022 2.03
Ln Win e Tem (°C) 0.017 0.012 1.41
Ln Sp ing Tem (°C) 0.697*** 0.263 2.65
Ln Summe Tem (°C) −1.942*** 0.314 −6.18
Ln Au umn Tem (°C) 0.427** 0.163 2.61
Ln Win e P e (mm) −0.000 0.020 −0.00
Ln Sp ing P e (mm) −0.010 0.024 −0.45
Ln Summe P e (mm) 0.002 0.011 0.20
Ln Au umn P e (mm) 0.007 0.019 0.37
Ln G oundwa e Salini y (g l
−1
) 0.113*** 0.022 5.02
Ln Soil Salini y (g l
−1
) −0.092*** 0.021 −4.28
_cons 5.368*** 0.641 8.36
N644
R
2
0.843
No e: *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.
Sou ce: Au ho s’ calcula ions.
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