Gad, Amany Yashoa
A icle
The impac o educa ion o he ansi ion om
unemploymen o employmen in Egyp
Re iew o Economics and Poli ical Science (REPS)
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Cai o Uni e si y, Cai o
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Gad, Amany Yashoa (2025) : The impac o educa ion o he ansi ion om
unemploymen o employmen in Egyp , Re iew o Economics and Poli ical Science (REPS), ISSN
2631-3561, Eme ald, Bingley, Vol. 10, Iss. 1, pp. 16-33,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1108/REPS-07-2020-0093
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The impac o educa ion o he
ansi ion om unemploymen o
employmen in Egyp
Amany Yashoa Gad
Mis Uni e si y o Science and Technology (MUST),
6 h o Oc obe , Egyp
Abs ac
Pu pose –This pape aims o iden i y he le el o con ibu ion o di e en le els o educa ion o emaining in
unemploymen as well as he ansi ion om unemploymen o employmen in Egyp .
Design/me hodology/app oach –In his pape , ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix di e en ia ed by gende , age
g oups, educa ional le els, ma i al s a us and place o esidence based on wo ke lows ac oss employmen ,
unemploymen and ou o labo o ce s a es du ing he pe iod 2012–2018 using Egyp Labo Ma ke Panel
Su ey o 2018. The esul s poin o he highly s a ic na u e o he Egyp ian labo ma ke . Employmen and he
ou o labo o ce s a es a e he leas mobile among labo ma ke s a es. This is because employmen s a e is
e y desi able and he ou o labo o ce is he la ges labo ma ke s a es, especially o emales. Also, his
s udy examines he impac o di e en educa ional le els sepa a ely on emaining in unemploymen and
ansi ion om unemploymen o employmen s a e using eigh bina y logis ic eg ession models.
Findings –The main esul s o ansi ions om unemploymen o employmen a e ela i ely la ge o males,
elde -age, uneduca ed wo ke s as well as wo ke s who a e no ma ied and u ban esiden s, and he esul s o
he logis ic eg ession models consis en wi h he ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix esul s, excep o ew cases.
Based on he abo e indings, he e is enough e idence o accep he null hypo hesis ha no educa ion has a
posi i e signi ican impac o ansi ion unemployed indi iduals om unemploymen o employmen , while
less han in e media e as well as highe educa ion ha e a nega i e signi ican impac o ansi ion unemployed
indi iduals om unemploymen o employmen .
O iginali y/ alue –This pape p oposes o add ess he p oblem o he unemploymen among highly
educa ed which is much highe compa ed wi h illi e a es and y o unde s and he impac o di e en le els o
educa ion sepa a ely on he ansi ion om unemploymen o employmen , o help he policymake s o
e adica e he gap be ween educa ion and he demand o he labo ma ke in Egyp .
Keywo ds Educa ion, Employmen s a us, T ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix analysis, Bina y logis ic
eg ession, Egyp
Pape ype Resea ch pape
1. In oduc ion
The p oblem o unemploymen is a global p oblem ha a ec s he wo ld’s economies, and
some imes i is called he body o he economy. In he ea ly li e a u e, he issue o he ela ion
be ween unemploymen and human capi al, especially educa ion, is s udied in he s a ic
analysis, bu ecen ly by using he panel da a, he dynamic analysis is a ailable.
Unemploymen is a was e o socie y’s human capi al. Human capi al played he main ole
in he unemploymen du a ion and labo mobili y. Unemploymen is he mos impo an
challenge acing policymake s in he wo ld, especially in de eloping coun ies.
Unemploymen du a ion is highe o people wi h highe educa ional le els, which shows
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© Amany Yashoa Gad. Published in Re iew o Economics and Poli ical Science. Published by Eme ald
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h ps://www.eme ald.com/insigh /2631-3561.h m
Recei ed 15 July 2020
Re ised 20 No embe 2020
Accep ed 12 Augus 2021
Re iew o Economics and Poli ical
Science
Vol. 10 No. 1, 2025
pp. 16-33
Eme ald Publishing Limi ed
e-ISSN: 2631-3561
p-ISSN: 2356-9980
DOI 10.1108/REPS-07-2020-0093
ha less educa ed people ha e lowe wages; a simila esul was ound o emales and males.
The p e ious esul s ela ed o he s udy conduc ed by Cana i e-Baca eza and So ia (2007),
using da a om he household su eys in A gen ina o he pe iod 1998 o 2005. This s udy
applied “s ochas ic dominance and econome ic echniques”as well as “condi ional
mul inomial p obi y echniques.”
In Egyp , he unemploymen a e has sligh ly dec eased om 12.7% in 2012 (9.3% o
males s 24.1% o emales) o abou 11.8% in 2017 (8.2% o males s 23.1% o emales), he
unemploymen a e is high o emales compa ed wi h males o e 2012–2017, while i is
sligh ly dec eased om 24.1% o 23.1% du ing his pe iod. The unemploymen a e is high
especially among he highly educa ed, abou 33.2% in 2012 and abou 34% in 2017, while i is
e y low among illi e a es wi h abou 3.2% in 2012 and 3% in 2018 (CAPMAS, 2019). I is
clea ha unemploymen among highly educa ed is much highe compa ed wi h illi e a es
and i sligh ly inc eased du ing his pe iod, while i is e y low among illi e a es and sligh ly
dec eased du ing he same pe iod. Due o his issue, i is use ul o add ess his p oblem and
y o unde s and he impac o di e en le els o educa ion sepa a ely on he ansi ion om
unemploymen o employmen , o help he policymake s o e adica e he gap be ween
educa ion and he demand o he labo ma ke in Egyp .
This s udy p oposes o add ess he p oblem o he unemploymen among highly educa ed
which is much highe compa ed wi h illi e a es and y o unde s and he impac o di e en
le els o educa ion sepa a ely on emaining in unemploymen and ansi ion om
unemploymen o employmen , o help he policymake s o e adica e he gap be ween
educa ion and he demand o he labo ma ke in Egyp .
In his s udy, he ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix is di e en ia ed by gende , age g oups,
educa ional le els, ma i al s a us and place o esidence based on wo ke lows ac oss
employmen , unemploymen and ou o labo o ce s a es du ing he pe iod 2012–2018 using
Egyp Labo Ma ke Panel Su ey o 2018. Also, his s udy examines he impac o di e en
educa ional le els sepa a ely on emaining in unemploymen and on he ansi ion om
unemploymen o employmen using bina y logis ic eg ession models.
To sum up, he main indings o ansi ions om unemploymen o employmen a e
ela i ely la ge o males, elde -age, uneduca ed wo ke s as well as wo ke s who a e no
ma ied and u ban esiden s, and he esul s o he logis ic eg ession models consis en wi h
he ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix esul s, excep o ew cases. Based on he abo e indings,
he e is enough e idence o accep he null hypo hesis ha no educa ion has a posi i e
signi ican impac o ansi ion unemployed indi iduals om unemploymen o employmen ,
while less han in e media e as well as highe educa ion ha e a nega i e signi ican impac o
ansi ion unemployed indi iduals om unemploymen o employmen .
The plan o he pape is o ganized as ollows. The es o his sec ion con ains he
objec i es and esea ch hypo hesis. Sec ion 2 p esen s he li e a u e e iew. Sec ion 3
desc ibes he da a sou ce. Sec ion 4 desc ibes he me hodology. Sec ion 5 discusses he
esul s o ou analysis, and Sec ion 6 p esen s he conclusion and ecommenda ions.
1.1 Objec i es o he s udy
The objec i es o his s udy a e o
(1) Examine he ela ionship be ween educa ion le els (p ima y educa ion, seconda y
educa ion, and highe educa ion) and emaining in unemploymen in Egyp .
(2) Examine he ela ionship be ween educa ion le els (p ima y educa ion, seconda y
educa ion, and highe educa ion) and ansi ion om unemploymen o employmen
in Egyp .
T ansi ion
om
unemploymen
o employmen
17
(3) Iden i y he le el o con ibu ion o di e en le els o educa ion o emaining in
unemploymen in Egyp .
(4) Iden i y he le el o con ibu ion o di e en le els o educa ion o ansi ion om
unemploymen o employmen in Egyp .
1.2 Resea ch hypo hesis
The null hypo heses based on hese objec i es a e he ollowing:
H0(1). No educa ion has a signi ican impac on emaining in unemploymen in Egyp .
H0(2). Less han in e media e educa ion has a signi ican impac on emaining in
unemploymen in Egyp .
H0(3). In e media e and abo e educa ion has a signi ican impac on emaining in
unemploymen in Egyp .
H0(4). Highe educa ion has a signi ican impac on emaining in unemploymen
in Egyp .
H0(5). No educa ion has a signi ican impac on he ansi ion om unemploymen o
employmen in Egyp .
H0(6). Less han in e media e educa ion has a signi ican impac on he ansi ion om
unemploymen o employmen in Egyp .
H0(7). In e media e and abo e educa ion has a signi ican impac on he ansi ion om
unemploymen o employmen in Egyp .
H0(8). Highe educa ion has a signi ican impac on he ansi ion om unemploymen o
employmen in Egyp .
2. Li e a u e e iew
Se e al s udies examine he dynamic labo ma ke using Ma ko ansi ion p ocess
p obabili ies. The pionee ing s udies a e conduc ed by Funkhouse (1997). O he s udies o
labo mobili y include he s udy o Gong e al. (2004) ha examine mobili y pa e ns and hei
dynamics abou indi idual cha ac e is ics in i e ci ies in Mexico and he s udy o Tansel and
Kan (2012) in Tu key.
A s udy conduc ed by Gong e al. (2004) explo e he labo mobili y in i e u ban ci ies o
Mexico using wo sepa a e i e-wa e panels o e he pe iod 1992–1995. The aim is o
de e mine he mobili y pa e ns and hei unde lying dynamics associa ed wi h indi idual
cha ac e is ics. This s udy inds he p obabili y o ansi ions be ween no wo king and he
in o mal sec o o be highe han ha be ween no wo king and he o mal sec o . Also, his
s udy no es ha p obabili y o emaining in he o mal sec o is signi ican ly highe han ha
in in o mal sec o . Then, “a educed o m dynamic mul inomial panel logi model wi h
andom e ec s is un o examine he in luence o one’s age, educa ion, gende , e hnici y,
egion and p e ious labo ma ke s a e.”The esul s e eal a posi i e ela ionship be ween
educa ion le el and he o mal sec o employmen , a nega i e (posi i e) ela ionship be ween
he income o o he amily membe s, and in o mal sec o employmen .
A s udy conduc ed by Be nab
e and S ampini (2009) examines he ela ionship be ween
unemploymen and highe educa ion using qua e ly 1998–1999 panel da a o examine
mobili y ac oss six labo ma ke s a uses (inac i i y, unemploymen , o mal wage
employmen , in o mal wage employmen , sel -employmen and a ming). The s udy
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concluded ha he e is “la gely a queuing de ice o indi iduals wi h highe educa ion
wai ing o o mal jobs. Some sel -employmen is subsis ence ac i i ies and consis en wi h a
segmen ed labo ma ke , while o he is high isk and po en ially high e u n ac i i ies.”Age,
gende and educa ion a e signi ican de e minan s o labo mobili y.
To examine and compa e labo ma ke dynamics in A gen ina, B azil and Mexico. Bosch
and Maloney (2010) conduc ed a s udy using panel da a om hese h ee coun ies and
Appling Ma ko ansi ion p ocesses. The main esul s indica e ha he e a e b oad
commonali ies among he h ee coun ies and mo e common pa e ns o wo ke mobili y
among sec o s o inac i i y and wo k.
Tansel and Ozdemi (2015) s udy he de e minan s o ansi ions ac oss o mal/in o mal
sec o s in Egyp ; his s udy p o ides Ma ko ansi ion p ocess p obabili ies di e en ia ed
by gende -based on wo ke lows ac oss di e en employmen s a es using Egyp Labo
Ma ke Panel Su ey o 2012. The main esul s o his s udy indica e ha go e nmen
employmen and he ou o labo o ce a e he leas mobile labo ma ke s a es. In o mal
p i a e wage wo k and unemploymen a e he mos mobile labo ma ke s a es. Also, his
s udy uses he mul inomial logi eg ession o discuss he de e minan s o ou lows om he
labo ma ke s a es. Only a ew o he explana o y a iables excep he high le els o
educa ion a e ound o ha e p edic i e powe in explaining he ansi ions om
unemploymen , o mal wage, in o mal wage and sel -employmen labo ma ke s a es.
In a compa a i e s udy conduc ed by Assaad and K a (2016) o s udy “labo ma ke
ma ke dynamic and you h unemploymen he middle eas and no h A ica: e idence om
Egyp , Jo dan and Tunisia”using da a om Egyp , Jo dan and Tunisia. “The h ee ounds o
he Egyp Labo Ma ke Panel Su ey (ELMPS), ielded in 1998, 2006, and 2012, he Jo dan
Labo Ma ke Panel Su ey (JLMPS) o 2010, and he Tunisian Labo Ma ke Panel Su ey
(TLMPS) o 2014. This s udy es ima es a complemen a y log-log model wi h gamma ail y
on annual da a o he p obabili y o ending an unemploymen spell in each yea . This model
is also known as he P en ice-Gloeckle -Meye model”(Meye , 1990). The main esul s o his
s udy a e ha he educa ion o he unemployed in he h ee coun ies also e y impo an
con as s. While 87% o he unemployed in Egyp in 2012 had seconda y educa ion o highe ,
ha sha e alls o 54% in Jo dan in 2010 and 44% in Tunisia in 2014. In Egyp , indi iduals
wi h less han seconda y educa ion ha e no chance o ob aining o mal jobs and he e o e
ha e li le incen i e o emain unemployed sea ching o such jobs. “In con as an indi idual
wi h a basic educa ion in Jo dan and Tunisia has nea ly wice he p obabili y o ge ing ei he
a public sec o job o a o mal p i a e sec o job han a simila indi idual in Egyp , gi ing
hem mo e easons o emain unemployed o some ime while seeking hese jobs.”In all h ee
coun ies, he e is a la ge numbe o educa ed young women who wan o make use o hei
educa ional expe iences bu lack he mobili y o mo e o whe e he jobs a e.
A s udy conduc ed by Assaad and K a (2017) in es iga es “how labo ma ke inse ion
o Egyp ian you h and how- o na u e o you h ansi ions ela e o gende and social class.”
The main esul o his s udy is ha you h oday ace a poo e chance o ansi ions in o a
good job han p e ious gene a ions. Also, social class is he main pilla in de e mining he
success o he ansi ion om school o wo k in Egyp .
Assaad e al. (2018) examine emale labo o ce pa icipa ion o e ime o MENA
coun ies –Alge ia, Egyp , Jo dan and Tunisia –con ol by ma i al s a us, educa ional
a ainmen and place o esidence (u ban/ u al) di e ences using mul i a ia e logi models
es ima ed on annual labo o ce su ey da a by coun y o simula e ends in emale
pa icipa ion in di e en ypes o pa icipa ion (public sec o wo k, p i a e wage wo k,
p i a e non-wage, unemploymen and non-pa icipa ion. The main esul s indica e ha “ he
decline in he p obabili y o public, sec o employmen o women wi h highe educa ion is
associa ed wi h ei he an inc ease in unemploymen o a decline in pa icipa ion.”
T ansi ion
om
unemploymen
o employmen
19
This s udy p oposes o ill he gap in he li e a u e abou he impac o di e en le els o
educa ion sepa a ely on emaining in unemploymen and ansi ion om unemploymen o
employmen s a e using eigh bina y logis ic eg ession models.
3. Da a sou ce
The da a used in his pape come om he 2018 wa e o he Egyp Labo Ma ke Panel
Su ey (ELMPS 2018). “The ELMPS 2018 is he ou h wa e o a longi udinal su ey ca ied
ou by he Economic Resea ch Fo um (ERF) in coope a ion wi h he Egyp ian Cen al Agency
o Public Mobiliza ion and S a is ics (CAPMAS). The 2018 wa e ollows p e ious wa es in
1998, 2006, and 2012. The panel design o he su ey o e s subs an ial ad an ages o e
pooled c oss-sec ional da a by allowing o a mo e accu a e assessmen o change o e ime
ha con ols o bo h obse able and unobse able indi idual and household cha ac e is ics.
I also allows o a unique pe spec i e on li e cou se ansi ions by allowing esea che s o
link li e cou se ou comes like educa ion, employmen , ma iage, e c.”(Assaad e al., 2019).
“The i s ound o he panel was he ELMS 1998. I included a na ionally ep esen a i e
sample o 4,816 households wi h 23,997 indi iduals. The second ound ELMPS 2006 loca ed
3,685 households om he ELMS 1998 he i s ound. An addi ional 2,168 new households
we e esul ing om spli s and a e eshe sample o 2,498 households o ensu e he
ep esen a i eness o he sample. These add up o 8,351 households wi h 37,140 indi iduals.
The hi d ound o ELMPS 2012 includes a o al o 12,060 households and 49,186 indi iduals.
The a i ion om he 2006 sample o he 2012 sample was no andom and due o se e al
p ocesses. 12,060 households included 6,752 households loca ed om he 2006 sample, 3,308
new households esul ing om spli s om hese households, and a e eshe sample o 2000
households. 28,770 indi iduals om he 2006 sample we e success ully in 2012 o ming a 2-
yea panel. A o al o 13,218 we e also acked in 1998 o ming a panel co e ing h ee poin s in
ime”(Tansel and Ozde mi , 2015).
“The ou h ound o ELMPS 2018 included 15,746 households and 61,231 indi iduals. O
hese households, 13,793 households included membe s om 2012 (10,042 panel and 3,751 spli
households) and 1,953 we e e eshe households. Among indi iduals, 53,040 we e in
households ha included a leas one indi idual in e iewed in 2012 (i.e. ei he panel o spli
households), while 8,191 we e in e eshe households. O he 49,186 indi iduals included in he
2012 sample, 39,153 (79.6%) we e success ully e-in e iewed in 2018. O he 37,140 indi iduals
in he 2006 sample, 22,901 (61.7%) we e success ully acked o e h ee wa es. Finally, o he
23,997 indi iduals included in he 1998 wa e, 10,145 (42.3%) we e success ully acked o e
ou wa es”. Fo he speci ic aim o his pape , he panel sample ex ac ed co e s he labo o ce
de ined by hose be ween he ages o 15–64 yea s who esponded o employmen s a us
ques ions in bo h 2012 and 2018. Tha co esponds o 18,408 indi iduals (Assaad e al., 2019).
4. Me hodology
To achie e he objec s o his s udy, wo app oaches a e used: he ansi ion p obabili ies
ma ix analysis and mul i a ia e s a is ical analysis using bina y logis ic eg ession.
4.1 Fi s app oach: he ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix
To cons ic ion he ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix, we need o calcula e Pij, whe e Pij “is he
p obabili y o inding a wo ke in s a ja he end o he pe iod gi en ha he/she was a s a e i
a he beginning o he pe iod.”Fo each cell o he ansi ion p obabili y ma ix, he simple
p obabili y ( he maximum likelihood es ima o ) is gi en by Pij ¼nij
ni, whe e nij is he numbe
o wo ke s who we e in s a e iand mo e o s a e jbe ween he pe iod and þ1 (in his s udy
be ween 2012 and 2018); and niis he numbe o wo ke s who we e in s a e iin pe iod . In his
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s udy, we ha e h ee labo ma ke s a es. They a e as ollows: employmen s a e,
unemploymen s a e and OLF s a e. Employmen s a e is including o mal/in o mal p i a e
egula wage wo k, i egula wage wo k, go e nmen (includes go e nmen adminis a ion
and public en e p ises) and sel -employed ag icul u e/non-ag icul u e. Unemploymen is
based on s anda d de ini ion “including indi iduals who a e no wo king bu ac i ely
sea ching o a job.”Ou o Labo Fo ce (OLF) “includes indi iduals who a e no wo king bu
no sea ching o a job.”
4.2 Second app oach: he mul i a ia e s a is ical analysis
To de e mine he impac o he main ac o s, especially educa ion le els a ec ing emaining
in he unemploymen s a e o ansi ion om unemploymen s a e o employmen s a e, wo
g oups o bina y logis ic eg ession models a e used. The i s g oup con ains ou models
ela ed o emaining in he unemploymen s a e and he second g oup con ains also ou
models ela ed o he ansi ion om unemploymen s a e o employmen s a e. To es ima e
he impac o di e en educa ion le els: no educa ion, less han in e media e, in e media e
and abo e and highe educa ion on emaining in unemploymen s a e (dependen a iable: 1
i he wo ke emains in unemploymen s a e (be ween 2012 and 2018) and 0 o he wise).
To es ima e he impac o di e en educa ion le els: no educa ion, less han in e media e,
in e media e and abo e and highe educa ion on he ansi ion om unemploymen s a e o
employmen s a e (dependen a iable: 1 i wo ke mo e om unemploymen s a e o
employmen s a e (be ween 2012 and 2018) and 0 o he wise). This s udy i s eigh eg ession
models di ided in o wo g oups: (1) he models ela ed o emaining in unemploymen s a e
( ou models); (2) he models ela ed o he ansi ion om unemploymen s a e o
employmen s a e ( ou models). The bina y logis ic eg ession model is adap ed because o
he dicho omous na u e o he dependen a iable.
In a gene al o m, bina y logis ic eg ession models wi h a se o socioeconomic ac o s
ha a ec emaining in unemploymen s a e and ansi ion om unemploymen o
employmen s a e a e aking he ollowing o ms (Chong e al., 2008):
P obðY¼1jX −1Þ¼FðβX −1Þ
whe e X’s a e he a ious cha ac e is ics o wo ke s, ha de e mine hei p obabili ies o
mo ing be ween he di e en employmen s a es (unemploymen and employmen ). These
ac o s include gende ( ep esen ed by male akes he alue o 1 and ze o o he wise), age (15–
64) ( ep esen ed by h ee ca ego ies: you h age g oup (15–24), middle-aged g oup (24–44) and
elde -aged g oup (45–64)) (used he elde -aged g oup as a e e ence), educa ion le els
( ep esen ed by ou ca ego ies: no educa ion, less han in e media e, in e media e and abo e,
and highe educa ion) and i will in oduce sepa a ely, ma i al s a us ( akes he alue o 1 i
he wo ke is no ma ied and ze o o he wise) and place o esidence ( akes he alue o 1 i he
wo ke esided in an u ban a ea and ze o o he wise).
5. S a is ical analysis
5.1 Desc ip i e s a is ics
Th ee di e en labo ma ke s a es a e iden i ied. They a e as ollows: employmen s a e,
unemploymen s a e and OLF s a e.
The sha e o each labo ma ke s a e in he o al labo o ce be ween 2012 and 2018 is
shown in Figu e 1. The p opo ions o he labo ma ke s a us a e qui e simila in
employmen , unemploymen , and he OLF s a e du ing 2006–2018. The end o he labo
o ce ac oss labo ma ke s a es is qui e simila om 2006 o 2018. Figu e 1 indica ed ha he
sha e o employmen s a e sligh ly inc eased om abou 50% in 2006 o abou 51% in 2018.
The unemploymen s a e emains s able a ound 5% (4.3% in 2006 s 4.5% in 2018). Fu he ,
he decline in he OLF s a e is om abou 47% in 2006 o abou 44% in 2018.
T ansi ion
om
unemploymen
o employmen
21
Table 1 gi es he sha es o each labo ma ke s a e in he male and emale samples
sepa a ely. In he male sample, i is subs an ial inc eases in he employmen s a e om abou
75% in 2006 o abou 82% in 2018, while i is a subs an ial dec ease in he OLF s a e om
abou 21% in 2006 o 13.5 in 2018. The unemploymen s a e emains s able a a ound 4%. In
he emale sample. The sha e o employmen is abou 21–23% h ough he pe iod be ween
2006 and 2018. The la ges labo ma ke s a e is he OLF s a e wi h abou 71–74% sha e
be ween 2006 and 2018. The unemploymen s a e emains s able a a ound 5%.
5.2 T ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix analysis
In his sec ion, we cons uc he ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix o iden i y he ac o s ha may
make mo e mo emen s om unemploymen o employmen . These ac o s include gende ,
age, educa ion le el, ma i al s a us and place o esidence espec i ely.
5.2.1 T ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix o he o al sample. Table 2 shows he ansi ion
p obabili ies ma ix o Egyp ’s labo ma ke be ween 2012 and 2018. The ma ices show he
p opo ions o indi iduals who s ayed in he same s a e (employmen , unemploymen and ou
o labo o ce) o mo e om one o o he s, ac oss he six yea s, “ he main diagonal shows he
%ages o indi iduals who emained in a gi en s a e”be ween 2012 and 2018.
The esul s o Table 2 e e en s high le els o diagonal elemen s in he whole sample,
employed indi iduals in 2012 emain in he same o iginal s a e in 2018 wi h 83.5% and OLF
s a e is he second less mobile s a e wi h 75% emaining in his s a e be ween 2012 and 2018.
While unemploymen s a e shows high mobili y wi h only abou 12% emaining in he s a e
be ween 2012 and 2018.
Employed indi iduals a e he leas -mobile among all o he labo ma ke g oups.
The ansi ion p obabili y o lows om employmen s a e o unemploymen s a e is e y
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2012 2018
Employmen
Unemploymen
Ou o Labo Fo ce
Sou ce(s): ELMPS 2018
2006 2012 2018
Male
Employmen 74.75 86.55 82.3
Unemploymen 3.84 3.57 4.2
OLF 21.41 9.88 13.5
Female
Employmen 23.71 22.08 21.2
Unemploymen 4.93 6.45 4.8
OLF 71.36 71.47 74.0
Sou ce(s): Compu ed by he esea ch using ELMPS 2018
Figu e 1.
T ends o labo ma ke
s a es in he o al
sample (%), 2006–
2018, Egyp
Table 1.
T ends o labo ma ke
s a es in he male and
emale samples, 2006–
2018, Egyp
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22
li le wi h 3%. The p obabili y o ansi ion om he employmen s a e o he OLF s a e
is 13.7%.
The unemployed indi iduals display huge mo emen among all o he labo ma ke
g oups. The ansi ion p obabili y o lows om he unemploymen s a e in 2012 o he
employmen s a e in 2018 is abou 33%, while he ansi ion p obabili y o lows om he
unemploymen s a e in 2012 o he OLF s a e in 2018 is abou 55%.
OLF s a e is he second low mobile a e employmen . The ansi ion p obabili y o lows
om he OLF s a e in 2012 o he employmen s a e in 2018 is abou 19%. Only abou 6% o
OLF s a e in 2012 mo e in o he unemploymen s a e in 2018.
5.2.2 T ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix analysis o gende . Table 3 shows he ansi ion
p obabili ies ma ix o gende be ween 2012 and 2018. The esul s o Table 3 indica e ha
he p obabili y o emaining in employmen s a e om 2012 o 2018 is somewha simila in
bo h he ma ix o male and he o al sample (88.9% s 83.5%), while is much lowe o emale
han he o al sample (62.2% s 83.5%). The p opo ion o wo ke s who emain in he
employmen s a e om 2012 o 2018 is he highes p obabili y in he male sample (88.9%),
while in he emale sample, he p opo ion o emaining in OLF s a e is he highes p obabili y
wi h 83.6%. I means ha he OLF s a e is domina ed by emales. In he male sample, he
p obabili y o emaining in he unemploymen s a e om 2012 o 2018 is much lowe han in
he o al sample (abou 9% s abou 12%), while in he emale sample he p obabili y is qui e
simila o he o al sample (abou 13% s abou 12%).
The ansi ion p obabili y o lows om employmen s a e o unemploymen s a e is e y
li le in bo h he male and emale samples wi h 3.1 and 1.1% espec i ely. In he male sample
8% o males employed in 2012 mo e o OLF s a e in 2018, while 36.7% in he emale sample in
2012 mo e o OLF s a e in 2018. I means ha women p e e o mo e o he OLF s a e.
2018
2012 Employmen Unemploymen OLF To al
Employmen 83.5 2.8 13.7 100
Unemploymen 32.9 12.2 54.9 100
OLF 19.3 5.7 75.0 100
To al 51.3 4.5 44.2
Sou ce(s): Compu ed by he esea ch using ELMPS 2018
2018
2012 Employmen Unemploymen OLF To al
Male
Employmen 88.9 3.1 8.0 100
Unemploymen 79.1 9.4 11.5 100
OLF 54.5 8.5 37.0 100
To al 82.5 4.2 13.2
Female
Employmen 62.2 1.1 36.7 100
Unemploymen 14.2 13.3 72.5 100
OLF 11.4 5.0 83.6 100
To al 21.3 4.7 74.0
Sou ce(s): Compu ed by he esea ch using ELMPS 2018
Table 2.
T ansi ion
p obabili ies ma ix
o he o al sample,
2012–2018, Egyp
Table 3.
T ansi ion
p obabili ies ma ix
o gende , 2012–
2018, Egyp
T ansi ion
om
unemploymen
o employmen
23
As a whole, he esul s o he logis ic eg ession models consis en wi h he ansi ion
p obabili ies ma ix esul s, excep o a ew cases. Based on he abo e indings, he e is
enough e idence o accep he null hypo hesis ha no educa ion has a posi i e signi ican
impac o ansi ion unemployed indi iduals om unemploymen o employmen , while less
han in e media e as well as highe educa ion ha e a nega i e signi ican impac o ansi ion
unemployed indi iduals om unemploymen o employmen .
6. Conclusion and ecommenda ions
6.1 Conclusion
The p oblem o unemploymen is a global p oblem ha a ec s he wo ld’s economies and
some imes i is called he body o he economy. Unemploymen is an impo an and pi o al
p oblem, ega dless o ime, in he pas , and also in he p esen . In Egyp , he unemploymen
a e has sligh ly dec eased om 12.7% in 2012 (9.3% o males s 24.1% o emales) o abou
11.8 in 2017 (8.2% o males s 23.1% o emales), he unemploymen a e is high o emales
compa ed wi h males o e 2012–2017, while i is sligh ly dec eased om 24.1% o 23.1%
du ing his pe iod. The unemploymen a e is high especially among he highly educa ed,
abou 33.2% in 2012 and abou 34% in 2017, while i is e y low among illi e a es wi h abou
3.2% in 2012 and 3% in 2018 (CAPMAS, 2019). I is clea ha unemploymen among highly
educa ed is much highe compa ed wi h illi e a es and i sligh ly inc eased du ing his pe iod,
while i is e y low among illi e a es and sligh ly dec eased du ing he same pe iod. Due o
his issue, i is use ul o add ess his p oblem and y o unde s and he impac o di e en
le els o educa ion sepa a ely on he ansi ion om unemploymen o employmen , o help
he policymake s o e adica e he gap be ween educa ion and he demand o he labo ma ke
in Egyp .
In his s udy, he ansi ion p obabili ies ma ix is di e en ia ed by gende , age g oups,
educa ional le els, ma i al s a us, and place o esidence based on wo ke lows ac oss
employmen , unemploymen and ou o labo o ce s a es du ing he pe iod 2012–2018 using
Egyp Labo Ma ke Panel Su ey o 2018. Also, his s udy examines he impac o di e en
educa ional le els sepa a ely on emaining in unemploymen and on he ansi ion om
unemploymen o employmen using eigh bina y logis ic eg ession models.
In he whole sample, he esul s indica e ha employed indi iduals a e he leas -mobile
among all o he labo ma ke g oups. Unemployed indi iduals display huge mo emen
among all o he labo ma ke g oups. The ansi ion p obabili y o lows om employmen
s a e o unemploymen s a e is e y li le in bo h he male and emale samples. In he male
sample, unemployed indi iduals a e highly mo emen among all o he labo ma ke g oups
wi h abou 79%, while only abou 14% in he emale sample in 2012 mo e om
unemploymen s a e o employmen s a e in 2018. The ansi ion p obabili y o lows om
he employmen s a e is e y li le in he elde -aged g oup, ollowed by he middle-aged g oup
and you h age g oup. In he elde -aged g oup, unemployed wo ke s a e highly mo emen o
employmen s a e among all o he labo ma ke g oups, ollowed by you h age g oup and
middle-aged g oup espec i ely.
The wo ke s wi h high educa ion a e he leas mobili y om employmen s a e ollowed
by wo ke s wi h in e media e and abo e, less han in e media e, and no educa ion
espec i ely. Also, he esul s indica e ha he wo ke s wi h no educa ion make he mos
ansi ion om unemploymen s a e o employmen s a e- his ansi ion is a highly impo an
esul -, ollowed by wo ke s wi h less han in e media e, wo ke s wi h highe educa ion, and
wo ke s wi h in e media e and abo e espec i ely. The wo ke s who a e ma ied a e he leas
mobili y om employmen s a e compa ed wi h he wo ke s who a e mo ma ied. Also, he
esul s indica e ha he wo ke s who a e no ma ied make a g ea e ansi ion om he
unemploymen s a e o he employmen s a e compa e wi h he wo ke s who a e ma ied.
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The p obabili y o emaining in he employmen s a e om 2012 o 2018 is qui e simila o
wo ke s who esided in u ban o u al a eas. Wo ke s esiding in u ban a eas a e mo e
mobile om he unemploymen s a e in 2012 o employed s a e in 2018 han hose esiding in
u al a eas. Abou 39% o wo ke s esiding in u ban a eas a e mo e om unemploymen
s a e in 2012, while abou 27% o hose esiden u al a eas make a simila ansi ion.
The s udy concluded ha by using he ansi ion p obabili ies ma ices i can link
wo ke s’mo emen be ween 2012 and 2018 and hei cha ac e is ics o iden i y he ac o s
ha made mo e mo emen s om unemploymen o employmen ha he main esul s o
ansi ions om unemploymen o employmen a e ela i ely la ge o males, elde -age,
uneduca ed wo ke s as well as wo ke s who a e no ma ied and u ban esiden s.
To es ima e he impac o di e en educa ion le els: no educa ion, less han in e media e,
in e media e and abo e, and highe educa ion on he ansi ion om unemploymen s a e o
employmen s a e (dependen a iable: 1 i wo ke mo e om unemploymen s a e o
employmen s a e (be ween 2012 and 2018) and 0 o he wise). This s udy i s eigh eg ession
models di ided in o wo g oups: (1) he models ela ed o emaining in unemploymen s a e
( ou models); (2) he models ela ed o he ansi ion om unemploymen s a e o
employmen s a e ( ou models). The bina y logis ic eg ession model is adap ed because o
he dicho omous na u e o he dependen a iable.
The main esul s o he bina y logis ic eg ession models indica ed ha educa ion
a iables seem o play an impo an ole in he ansi ion om unemploymen o
employmen , unemployed indi iduals wi h no educa ion a e mo e likely o mo e om
unemploymen o employmen compa ed o he o he s, while unemployed indi iduals wi h
less han in e media e and wi h highe educa ion a e less likely o mo e om unemploymen
o employed compa ed o he o he s (in e media e and abo e is insigni ican ). Also, he esul s
show ha unemployed indi iduals ages 15–24 yea s (young age g oup) a e signi ican ly
mo e likely o mo e om unemploymen o employmen compa ed o hei elde -aged g oup
(45–64) as well as unemployed indi iduals ages 25–44 yea s (middle-aged g oup) a e
signi ican ly mo e likely o mo e om unemploymen o employmen compa ed o hei
elde -aged g oup (45–64). Besides, unemployed indi iduals who a e no ma ied a e
signi ican ly mo e likely o mo e om unemploymen o employmen compa ed o hei
ma ied indi iduals. Unemployed indi iduals who eside in u ban a eas a e signi ican ly
mo e likely o mo e om unemploymen o employmen ela i e o hose who eside in
u al a eas.
As a whole, he esul s o he logis ic eg ession models consis en wi h he ansi ion
p obabili ies ma ix esul s, excep o a ew cases. Based on he abo e indings, he e is
enough e idence o accep he null hypo hesis ha no educa ion has a posi i e signi ican
impac o ansi ion unemployed indi iduals om unemploymen o employmen , while less
han in e media e as well as highe educa ion ha e a nega i e signi ican impac o ansi ion
unemployed indi iduals om unemploymen o employmen .
6.2 Recommenda ions
Based on he main indings de i ed om his s udy abou he impac o di e en educa ion
le els especially highe educa ion and no educa ion le els on he ansi ion om
unemploymen o employmen , he ollowing a e impo an ecommenda ions may help
he policymake s o e adica e he gap be ween educa ion and he demand o he labo ma ke
in Egyp .
(1) Skill misma ching. The educa ion sys em needs o s a de e mining he skills ha
you h a e needed o ind ewa ding wo k. Educa ion ins i u ions, especially highe
educa ion ins i u ions should wo k o s eng hen he pe sonals skills o he
g adua es.
T ansi ion
om
unemploymen
o employmen
31
(2) Educa ion and aining p og am. The high p e alence o unemploymen among
educa ed, especially among uni e si y s uden s. Highe educa ion g adua es’
aining s a egy mus be de eloped so ha new g adua es who a e awai ing job
appoin men s can ha e a wo king en i onmen expe ience.
(3) In es men in and p omo e oca ional aining o he you h wi h in e media e and
abo e o echnical educa ion.
(4) Educa ion ins i u ions need o de elop and inno a e hei p og am cu icula and
inclusi e eaching and lea ning ma e ials o be able o mee global s anda ds o
moni o ing he quali y o he p og am o cope wi h he labo ma ke .
(5) Encou age en ep eneu ship among you h h ough acili a ing inancial suppo as
p o iding loans wi h small in e es (Ba soum e al., 2014).
Re e ences
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Fu he eading
Adai , P. and Bellache, Y. (2014), “Labou mobili y and he in o mal sec o in alge ia: a c oss-sec ional
compa ison (2007–2012)”, Ins i u e o Labo S udies and Public Policies (TEPP) Wo king
Pape , No: 2014-7, Uni e si y Pa is-Es C
e eil.
Boughzala, M. and Kouki, M. (2003), “Unemploymen pe sis ence and he in o mal sec o ”, Economic
Resea ch Fo um (ERF), Wo king Pape , No. 200326.
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Resou ces, Vol. 41 No. 2, pp. 259-293.
Co esponding au ho
Amany Yashoa Gad can be con ac ed a : [email p o ec ed]du.eg;[email p o ec ed]
Fo ins uc ions on how o o de ep in s o his a icle, please isi ou websi e:
www.eme aldg ouppublishing.com/licensing/ ep in s.h m
O con ac us o u he de ails: [email p o ec ed]
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om
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o employmen
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