Sielke , F anziska; Dannenbe g, Pe e
A icle
New economic geog aphies o wa : Risks and dis up ions
in Eu asian anspo ou es and supply chains h ough
he mili a y con lic in Uk aine
ZFW - Ad ances in Economic Geog aphy
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
De G uy e B ill
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Sielke , F anziska; Dannenbe g, Pe e (2025) : New economic geog aphies o wa :
Risks and dis up ions in Eu asian anspo ou es and supply chains h ough he mili a y con lic in
Uk aine, ZFW - Ad ances in Economic Geog aphy, ISSN 2748-1964, De G uy e , Be lin, Vol. 69, Iss. 1,
pp. 41-54,
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ZFW - Ad . in Econ. Geog . 2025; 69(1): 41–54
F anziska Sielke * and Pe e Dannenbe g
New economic geog aphies o wa : isks
and dis up ions in Eu asian anspo ou es
and supply chains h ough he mili a y con lic
in Uk aine
h ps://doi.o g/10.1515/z w-2024-0059
Recei ed Ap il 18, 2024; accep ed Decembe 16, 2024;
published online Janua y 17, 2025
Abs ac :The pandemic and he las yea s’ geopoli ical dis-
up ions ha e laid ba e he ulne abili y o Eu ope’s supply
chains, as well as he challenges posed by insecu e oil and
gas supplies. In his con ibu ion, we aim o add o his
deba e by aising awa eness o he ulne abili y o ade
and supply chain in as uc u e be ween Eu ope and Asia.
We gi e an o e iew o he isks o supply chain secu-
i ies due o he isk o mili a y and a med conflic s and
geopoli ical challenges mo e b oadly, illus a ed by a map
o cen al logis ic co ido s and hubs. We u he discuss
he con empo a y implica ions o each co ido due o
he wa in Uk aine. By making use o he example o he
Bel and Road Ini ia i e (BRI), we a gue ha ade along
hese co ido s is highly in e dependen and ha he con-
inued conflic in Uk aine poses a dange o independen ,
di e sified and esilien ade ac oss Eu asia. The pape
calls o u u e esea ch in economic geog aphy, mili a y
geog aphies and ela ed in e na ional business li e a u e
o (join ly) eemphasize he economic geog aphies o wa ,
by o ins ance analysing shi s in global alue chains and
global p oduc ion ne wo ks as a esul o iolen conflic s.
Keywo ds: anspo co ido s; supply chain secu i y; New
Silk Road; geopoli ics; global p oduc ion ne wo ks; global
alue chains
1 In oduc ion
Eu ope’s economy is hea ily dependen on in e na ional
supply chain ela ions and co esponding secu i y o ade
*Co esponding au ho : F anziska Sielke , TU Wien, Facul y o A chi-
ec u e and Spa ial Planning, Ins i u e o Spa ial Planning, Resea ch Uni
o U ban and Regional Resea ch, Ka lsgasse 11, 1040, Vienna, Aus ia,
E-mail: [email p o ec ed].
h ps://o cid.o g/0000-0001-6391-983X
Pe e Dannenbe g, Depa men o Geosciences, Geog aphy, Uni e si y
o Cologne, 50823 Köln, Ge many, E-mail: p.dannenbe [email protected].
h ps://o cid.o g/0000-0002-4159-6635
ou es. Ye he las yea s ha e laid ba e he immense ul-
ne abili y o he many ade ou es ha Eu ope depends
on, bo h land- and sea-based. Russia’s wa on Uk aine
came alongside subs an ial dis up ions o s a egic ans-
po ou es in he Black Sea. Since Russia’s a ack on
Uk aine, Eu ope’s insecu e oil and gas supplies, as well as
he impac s o sanc ions on he Eu opean economy (e.g.
C escenzi and Ha man 2023;P ebilič and Je eb 2022), ha e
domina ed he public deba e. While he mos ca as ophic
scena ios ha e so a p o en o be o e exagge a ed (see
e.g. Bachmann e al. 2022), significan isks emain. In his
pape , we aim o ou line and discuss a less ega ded bu
long- e m challenge o Eu opean economies: he ulne a-
bili y o (land-based) supply chain ou es and in as uc u e
be ween Eu ope and Asia, pa icula ly China. We a gue
ha he supply chains be ween Asia and Eu ope a e no
only i al o Eu opean and Asian consume and indus ial
ma ke s bu had al eady been a ec ed by isk and unce -
ain y long be o e he wa in Uk aine. The a ack on Uk aine
wo sened his al eady ulne able si ua ion and challenges
ela ed p oduc ion ne wo ks and la ge-scale in as uc u e
p og ammes such as he Chinese Bel and Road Ini ia i e
(BRI; Mendez e al. 2022). Fu he mo e, he si ua ion became
e en mo e ense in la e 2023 and 2024, when (as a esul
o he Gaza-Is ael conflic ) Yemen Hou hi ebels a acked
mul iple con aine ships and ene gy anke s in he Red Sea,
c ea ing ma i ime ‘chokepoin s’ ha pose a h ea o global
ene gy ma ke s and inc ease eigh a es (e.g. A is 2023).
To make ou case, we b iefly ou line on how wa
and mili a y conflic s a e discussed in economic geog a-
phy and ela ed in e na ional business li e a u e, wi h a
ocus on ade ou es and supply chains. We hen look a
Eu asian ade ou es, pa icula ly in he con ex o he wa
in Uk aine. We show ha (nea ly) all ou es be ween Eu ope
and Asia ace se ious isks, such as ins abili y, con es a ion,
au ho i a ian egimes, isk o ebel a acks and mili a y
conflic s. The implica ions o a con inuous mili a y conflic
in Uk aine s e ch beyond he immedia e logis ics co i-
do passing h ough Uk aine. Based on hese findings we
gene ally conclude ha s udies in economic geog aphy and
Open Access. ©2024 he au ho (s), published by De G uy e . This wo k is licensed unde he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 4.0 In e na ional License.
42 —F. Sielke and P. Dannenbe g: New economic geog aphies o wa
business li e a u e on supply chain ela ions (e.g. s udies on
global p oduc ion ne wo ks (GPNs) and global alue chains
(GPVs)) should mo e s ongly conside conflic - ela ed dis-
up ions. This helps o unde s and cu en ade and supply
chain dynamics, as well as he in e dependency be ween
di e en ou es in he cu en imes o c isis. The combina-
ion o ulne abili ies c ea es an unce ain y o Eu opean
ade ha has subs an ial implica ions o Eu ope’s endea -
ou s o s i e o s a egic au onomy while con inuing o be
embedded in global ade.
In highligh ing he long- e m implica ions and chal-
lenges a ising om wa s, o he iolen conflic s and geopo-
li ical ensions mo e gene ally, we de elop an a gumen ha
‘mili a y’ geog aphies need o be in eg a ed in o wo k on
global p oduc ion and alue chains in fields such as eco-
nomic geog aphy and in e na ional businesses. We e en go
a s ep u he , sugges ing ha a specific conside a ion o he
eme gence o new ‘economic geog aphies o wa ’ is wo h-
while in unde s anding no jus GPNs bu also in p o iding
new insigh s o he complemen a i y o loca ions. On he
one hand global supply chains a e dis up ed h ough local
ensions. On he o he hand geopoli ical h ea s, iolen con-
flic s, and o cou se wa s lead o shi s in in e na ional busi-
nesses decisions in an e o o secu e hei long- un GPNs
and GPVs. The wa on Uk aine is one o hese game-changing
e en s a Eu ope’s eas e n pe iphe y. Making use o a map
o key Eu asian co ido s, we b ing oge he some b oade
conside a ions o he shi s wi hin GPNS on he (po en ial)
shi s in GPNs and GPVs. These shi s influence businesses
decisions, leading o he eme gence o new a ia ions o
he economic geog aphies esul ing om hese mili a y con-
flic s. We call hese ‘economic geog aphies o wa .’
The pape is s uc u ed as ollows: The nex sec ion
summa ises he consequences o wa and iolen conflic s,
d awing on, in e na ional businesses and mili a y geog a-
phies highligh ing a esea ch gap in GPN and GPV esea ch.
In sec ion h ee we map nine Eu asian ade ou es, hen
discuss he po en ial consequences and bo lenecks o each
co ido . In he ou h sec ion we discuss he eme gence o
new economic geog aphies o wa as a esul o he Uk aine
wa and subsequen shi s in he BRI, be o e fi h coming o
a conclusion.
2 Consequences o wa and iolen
con lic s in economic geog aphy
and beyond
Beyond he loss o li es, di e en s udies (e.g. Cowen 2014;
Hu e al. 2023;Ka saliaki e al. 2021;Le Billon 2001)ha e
al eady ou lined he gene ally nega i e e ec s o wa on
ade. These ac o s a e caused by a ange o ha m ul ac-
o s, such as emba goes, damage o in as uc u e, and loss
o human capi al. In iolen conflic s, anspo ou es and
in as uc u e (such as ai po s, esou ce ex ac ion si es,
banking o powe s a ions) a e usually he mos impo an
and con es ed asse s which conflic pa ies will figh o ,
in e up o e en des oy ( o a oid hem alling in o he
hands o opponen s; see e.g. Le Billon 2001). Mili a y con-
flic s can he e o e lead o se ious dis up ions and decou-
pling p ocesses, wi h se e e consequences o global supply
chains and ade.
S udies on global p oduc ion ne wo ks (GPNs) o global
alue chains (GVCs), which a e he dominan concep s in
economic geog aphy ela ed o supply chains, ha e been
widely silen abou he e ec s o wa and mili a y conflic s
on supply chains1and only ecen ly e ocused on geopoli i-
cal isks (e.g. Follmann e al. 2024;Yeung 2023). Two u he
examples a e fi s , Aoyama e al. (2024) who ou line he
de elopmen o diplomacy-d i en go e nance as a esul
o he cu en shi s in global wo ld o de . Second, Hess
and Ho ne (2024) highligh s a es s a egies o na iga e
isks in geopoli ically u bulen imes, and he subsequen
p ocesses o coupling, decoupling and ecoupling (see as
well Pa línek 2024). Bo h highligh g owing conce ns abou
mili a y secu i y o supply chains, ye he impac s o mili-
a y wa s on GPNs emain la gely uns udied. A eason o
his could be, ha he deba e on GPN and GVC has la gely
un olded since he 1990s (e.g. Ge e i 1994;Ge e i e al.
2005;Hende son e al. 2002). This means i de eloped a e
he cold wa , a a ime when globalisa ion (wi h all i s
oppo uni ies and p oblems) seemed unchained and a he
ee o geopoli ical isks and mili a y conflic s in he coun-
ies whe e mos global ade ook place. Missing widely
empi ical e idence and a angible necessi y o ela e o,
mos GPN and GVC schola s he e o e neglec ed s udying o
concep ualizing he impac o mili a y conflic s and wa s.
E en ecen s udies on GVC and GPN dealing wi h isks,
up u es, ic ions and decoupling do no discuss wa s o
mili a y conflic s ( o example De Ma chi and Ge e i 2023;
1An excep ion is Glassmann (2011) who ou lined ha GPN app oaches
should encompass wa and o he conflic s o unde s and p ocesses o
globaliza ion and hei unde lying de e minan s. In de ail he highligh s
di e en geo-poli ical conce ns and conflic s such as class s uggles
(e.g. global ‘social mo emen s in powe ’; Walle s ein 2000), in e na-
ional poli ics and mili a y conflic s. Howe e , Glassmann (2011) did
no analyze ac ual “ho ” wa s and iolen conflic s bu showed on
he example o ade and p oduc ion ne wo k de elopmen s be ween
he o me enemies Japan and Ko ea how he Cold Wa shaped new
economic collabo a ion be ween he coun ies.
F. Sielke and P. Dannenbe g: New economic geog aphies o wa —43
Völle s e al. 2023;2Yeung 2015;Yeung and Coe 2015). This
is s ill qui e su p ising as mode n GPNs equi e eliable
and – i “jus -in- ime” p oduc ion and deli e y is in ol ed
– apid ca go mo emen (Maihold and Mühlhö e 2021).
A no able excep ion a e Blažek and Lypianin (2024) show
he Uk ainian s a e-owned companies eo ien ed a e 2014
annexa ion o C imea, bu also showed ha ade ba ely
ceases en i ely. Violen conflic s, o e en jus a high isk
o conflic , can se iously challenge and dis up hese mo e-
men s, howe e - Conce ning geopoli ical isks Yeung (2023)
calls o mo e s udies which inco po a e and heo ize he
e ec s o powe ul na ional and sup ana ional ac o s and
hei ela ed policies such as he US es ic ions on echnol-
ogy expo s o China o EU a emp s o esho ing manu ac-
u ing o educe impo dependencies.
Indeed Follmann e al. (2024) ou line ha such geopoli-
ics lead o a econfigu a ion and ecoupling o global supply
chains; Fo example, when in ol ed businesses a e de elop-
ing new s a egies o nea sho ing o iend sho ing in o de
o secu e hei long- un supply (see also Kal elage and Tups
2024;Tups e al. 2024;Yang and Chan 2023).
Simila obse a ions can also be made o pa s o he
in e na ional business li e a u e. He e o example a ious
s udies loca ion choices and inno a ion s a egies o mul i-
na ional en e p ises (e.g. Cano-Kollmann e al. 2016;Lo en-
zen and Mudambi 2013;Wang 2022) iew economic o gani-
za ions and e i o ies on di e en scales (e.g. mul ina ional
en e p ises, clus e s, u ban agglome a ions o coun ies) as
connec ed ne wo ks, implici ly assume a con ex o easy
flow o in es men s. While hese wo ks igh ly ou line he
impo ance o in e na ional in e ela ionships and in e -
dependencies o economic o ganisa ions and e i o ies,
hey ha e o “some deg ee neglec ed he bounda ies and
ic ions beyond he na ional le el”; Ba hel e al.2018;p.
1003). Those wo ks analyzing such in e na ional ic ions
mainly ocused on ins i u ional di e ences such as di e si y
o languages, adi ions, legal sys ems as well as ela ed
labo and business cul u es (Ba hel e al.2018;Be y e al.
2014), o ecen ly on p o ec ionis policies, pandemic ela ed
ic ions (Ba hel and Li 2022;Lo enzen e al. 2020)bu
do no ocus on he consequences o wa and iolen
conflic s.
Li e a u e on mili a y geog aphy can u he enhance
his unde s anding. Gene ally mili a y geog aphy deals wi h
s a e mili a y discou ses o mili a y powe ; a b oad poli i-
cal geog aphy, ocused on he spa iali y o a med conflic ;
and he poli ical economies and sociocul u al geog aphies
2Völle s e al. (2023) men ion wa s in hei in oduc ion on isks in
global p oduc ion ne wo ks, bu do no u he elabo a e on i .
o mili a ism (Rech e al. 2015;Woodwa d 2005). Bea ce
and Fishe (2002) ou line and model explana ions why and
unde which condi ions desi es o and ela ed conflic s
abou esou ces, in as uc u es and ade ne wo ks lead
o wa and o he iolen conflic s, bu do no ou line he
e ec s o wa s and o he iolen conflic s on in e na ional
ade, supply chains and ela ed in as uc u es. S ewa
and Fi zge ald (2001) o example analyse he consequences
o a wa wi hin na ions on hei economic and social de el-
opmen . Mykhnenko (2020), analysed he e ec s on Russia’s
fi s a acks on Uk aine in 2014 and ocussed on he di ec
economic e ec s o he a acked coun y (depopula ion,
economic decline and e osion o de elopmen ; see below).
Howe e , he did no ake he pe spec i e o in e na ional
ade and supply chain e ec s and isks. Faye e al. (2004)
in con as ou lined how wa s and iolen conflic s in one
coun y can di ec ly endange o nega i ely a ec a neigh-
bo ing coun y, o example when ansi coun ies su e
om iolen conflic s, ansi ou es a e damaged o closed,
and his esul s in a e ou ing o majo ade o in he wo s
case, a s oppage o ansi . Gene ally, less is known on he
la ge a ie y o how mili a y powe shapes in e na ional
economic ela ionships because o he a ious ypes o mil-
i a y powe in which i can appea (e.g. h ea s, blockades,
occupancy). He e, we can iden i y a gene al demand o u -
he economic geog aphies o wa which could link mili a y
geog aphy close wi h economic geog aphy (in pa icula
wi h wo k on global alue chains and global p oduc ion
ne wo ks) and in e na ional business li e a u e.
This could be u he enhanced by li e a u e on sup-
ply chain dis up ions. He e, Ka saliaki e al. (2021) ca ego-
ize wa and o he iolen conflic s as low equency bu
ca as ophic mac o le el isks o supply chains. Simila ly,
Cowen’s (2014) wo k on logis ics and anspo ou e ela ed
dis up ions along supply chains dis inguishes be ween
e e yday delays (e.g. bad wea he , ailed engines, oad clo-
su es) and delibe a e in e up ions in he con ex o io-
len and con es ed human ela ions. These include labou
ac ions (e.g. s ikes and blockades), pi acy and bo de secu-
i y checks, bu also mili a y ac ions. While some o hese
dis up ions (in pa icula e e yday delays) can a leas
pa ly be add essed and calcula ed wi hin he isk and secu-
i y managemen o supply chains, some o hese ac i i ies
a e a he incalculable leading o insu able unce ain ies
and long- e m dis up ions.3In he long un, iolen conflic s
and wa s can he e o e lead, no only o se ious ecalcula-
ions conce ning inc eased cos s o insu ances, concessions
3See also Völle s e al. (2023) on di e en pe spec i es on isks and
unce ain ies wi hin p oduc ion ne wo ks.
44 —F. Sielke and P. Dannenbe g: New economic geog aphies o wa
and b ibes, bu also o disin es men and disengagemen
om he a ec ed businesses, egions and sec o s (Le Billon
2001).
These di e en li e a u e s eams highligh he com-
plexi y o de elopmen s in egions a ec ed by iolen con-
flic s. In his pape we specifically ocus on he Eas e n
bo de s o he Eu opean Union. Al eady, be o e he Russian
a ack in 2022, schola s we e al eady discussing geopoli -
ical and mili a y isks along he Eu asian ade ou es. A
sys ema ic li e a u e o e iew wi h a pa icula ocus on
he Bel and Road ou es be ween China, Eu ope and o he
la ge po ions o Asia was unde aken by Hu e al. 2023.He e
hey defined isks o poli ical s abili y, ex e nal conflic s
and mili a y in e en ions, among o he s. Hu e al. (2023)
show ha such isks a e no only e y significan bu also
inc eased om 2005 o 2020, wi h A ghanis an, I aq, Russia
and Uk aine as he main isk cen es and mili a y isks and
des abilisa ion o na ional so e eign secu i y as he domi-
nan isk ypes. While many Middle Eas e n coun ies ha e
been h ea ened o decades by e o ism, e hnic conflic s
and poli ical ins abili y, pa s o Eas e n Eu ope ha e again
become a ic ion zone o poli ical (e.g. NATO e sus Russia)
and mili a y conflic s (e.g. Allison 2014; Russian A acks on
Uk aine 2014). He e Hu e al. (2023) ou line a se ious lack o
awa eness o hese di e en isk ypes in academic li e a-
u e on ade.
Russia’s a ack on Uk aine has inc eased hese isks
d ama ically. Acco ding o Mendez e al. (2022) he land
in as uc u e be ween Eu ope and Asia which passes
h ough Uk aine and i s di ec neighbo s has been a ec ed
by a educ ion o in es men , unding, and in e na ional
coope a ion due o he geopoli ical shock. Fu he , he wa
nega i ely a ec ed global alue chains (C escenzi and Ha -
man 2023;Mendez e al. 2022;Nedopil 2022). These nega i e
e ec s could be di ec ly seen in p ice jumps in a ec ed
alue chains such as ood o cosme ics, which a e highly
dependen on Russian and Uk ainian seed oil (C escenzi and
Ha man 2023). Li (2023a) u he iden ified a educ ion o
ade and a gene al loss o us om in es o s in he Bel
and Road ini ia i e along Uk aine and Russia bu also along
he BRI due o he isk o seconda y sanc ions agains Rus-
sian allies such as China (see also Bo 2022). Figu e 1 ou lines
he discussed consequences o wa and mili a y conflic s
and he b oade geopoli ical insecu i ies o po en ial con-
flic s be o e we will ou line and illus a e o Eu asian ade
ou es and supply chains in mo e de ail.
While he implica ions o wa and mili a y conflic s on
ade a e gene ally unde s ood, we a gue ha in economic
geog aphy he e is a lack o unde s anding o he ulne abil-
i ies o di e en in e dependen ade ou es on he o e all
supply chain secu i y o Eu ope. We hus e-emphasize he
dependence o physical pa hways and means o ade wi h
geo-poli ical ac o s. Wi h his pape , we would like o in i e
mo e in-dep h discussion on he specific si ua ion conce n-
ing Eu asian ade ou es and he conc e e challenges. We
aim o ini ia e his deba e by fi s p o iding an o e iew
o he key Eu asian in as uc u e co ido s and hen sum-
ma ising key challenges. These ela e o global dependen-
cies o a eas wi h chokepoin s as well as an inc eased depen-
dency o he global ade ne wo ks on indi idual coun ies,
o geopoli ical sensi i i ies.
3 Mapping key anspo ou es
and hei gene al oppo uni ies
and isks
O e all, ma i ime ou es con inue o be he backbone o
global ade, specifically ade be ween China and he EU.
Dependence on sea-based ade ou es was one o he fi s
easons o China o s eng hen i s land-based ou es. Long
be o e he Bel and Road Ini ia i e was o icially launched
in 2013 by o me Chinese p esiden Xi Jinpeng, China was
al eady pu ing conside able e o in o building Eu asian
ain ou es. Following he all o he I on Cu ain, Chinese
engagemen helped o di e si y he de elopmen o land-
based ade ou es om Eu ope o Asia (Sielke and Kau -
mann 2020). To his day, howe e , he No h Sea Ha bou s
emain (in e ms o olume) Eu ope’s mos impo an link
o global ade. The geopoli ically umul uous imes, and
specifically he ise o a med conflic s in Uk aine and in
Gaza, ha e aised implica ions o supply chain and ene gy
secu i y. In Figu e 2 we illus a e he majo land- and sea-
based in as uc u e co ido s be ween Eu ope and Asia,
aiming o p o ide an o e iew o some challenges associ-
a ed wi h each o hese ou es. The eby, we show ha a
subs an ial and non-subs i u able pa o land-based ading
ac i i ies a e unde se ious h ea s. Many o hese ou es
pass h ough Russia, h ough a eas whe e Russia exe cises
de ac o influence, o whe e i aims o inc ease i s di ec
influence (Flanagan e al. 2020).
The e a e nine majo in as uc u e co ido s and
ou es. The p ima ily land-based ou es om No he n-
mos en y o Eu ope o Sou he nmos a e: (1) he C oss-
Russia Co ido , (2) he Bal ic C ossing, (3) he Uk aine Land
C ossing, (4) he Caucasus-Black Sea – Uk aine C ossing,
(5) he Caucasus-Black Sea – Danube C ossing, and he (6)
Tu key C ossing. The p ima ily ma i ime ou es, ollowing
he en y poin s o Eu ope om No h o Sou h a e: (7) The
A c ic – No h Sea Co ido (No he n BRI Sea Rou e), (8)
F. Sielke and P. Dannenbe g: New economic geog aphies o wa —45
Figu e 1: Wa and mili a y con lic s, ela ed isks and ela ed e ec s on ade ou es and supply chains (own compila ion; see in pa icula Hu e al.
2023).
he Suez Channel (Sou he n BRI Rou e), and (9) he Cape
Rou e ia Sou h A ica, no displayed in Map 1. Many o hese
ou es ha e been o icially associa ed wi h he BRI.
In gene al, we use he e ms “co ido s” and “c ossings”
o b oad ou es, which hemsel es consis o smalle ade
ou es. We name he land-based en y poin s in o he
EU “c ossings.” The C oss-Russia Co ido b anches in o
di e en po en ial c ossings be o e en e ing Eu ope. We
de i ed hese co ido s based on he au ho s’ in e nal dis-
cussions and he BRI Co ido s ep esen ed by New Silk
Road mapping o MERICs and he TEN-T co ido s o he
Eu opean Union. The ini ial mapping we e based on he
MERICS acking map om 2022, and conside ing upda es
ill 2024 (MERICS 2024), and he TEN-T Co ido s in he MFF
pe iod 2014–2020 and 2021–2027 (see o example, Eu o-
pean Commission 2024). We hen discussed hese majo
anspo ou es in ligh o geopoli ical ensions. The co -
ido s p esen ed he e a e, in he au ho s’ es ima ion, bo h
key anspo ou es as well as hose subjec o subs an ial
geopoli ical ensions o egional sensi i i ies. Ano he key
conside a ion he e is whe he al e na i e majo unding
ou es exis in case o mili a y in e en ions, ising io-
len conflic o geopoli ical ensions, an aspec we conside
impo an o unde s anding economies o wa . We hen
illus a e in he example o Uk aine how hese di e en
ou es may be in e dependen and how geopoli ical en-
sions a ec he ading oppo uni ies ac oss di e en c oss-
ings. We also conside capaci y limi a ions as an addi ional
p essu e weighing on businesses’ sea ch o eliable ade
ou es.
In gene al, one can say ha ade olumes on he
a ious ou es ha e significan ly inc eased since 2011. Fo
example, ade be ween China and Eu ope along he Kaza-
khs an, Russia, Bela us ou e inc eased om 100,500 con-
aine s TEU (Twen y Foo Equi alen Uni , he uni used o
measu e olume based on a s anda d con aine ) in 2016 o
681,200 con aine s in 2022 (UTLC 2023). In o al in 2022, land-
ou e ade be ween Eu ope and China eached 1.6 million
TEU (GTAI 2023). Howe e , his numbe was s ongly influ-
enced by he COVID pandemic and ela ed challenges o
ma i ime a ic (see below). In ou discussion we will no
d aw on exac ade numbe s in hese ou es o subsequen
economic implica ions. The e a e wo easons o his. Fi s ,
o e all ade flows a e di icul o calcula e due o a y-
ing sou ces, measu emen me hods, e c. Second, co ido s
a e o en a combina ion o a numbe o di e en logis ic
cen es and mic o ou es, which a e indi idually di icul o
es ima e. Ou key a gumen is oo ed ins ead in he majo
isks and challenges associa ed wi h hese co ido s, wi h-
ou aiming o es ima e specific economic implica ions.
46 —F. Sielke and P. Dannenbe g: New economic geog aphies o wa
Figu e 2: Con lic s and limi a ions along he main ou es be ween Eu ope and Asia (own design).
In gene al, he isks and challenges along hese co -
ido s include a hal in ade along one ou e due o
sanc ions o mili a y conflic s, isks o addi ional conflic s,
cos and ime implica ions o using mo e ‘secu e’ ade
ou es, capaci y limi a ions, and inc eased dependency on
a ew coun ies h ough which anspo ou es un. Table 1
summa ises p ominen examples o isks and challenges
along hese co ido s.
The ade bo lenecks be ween Eu ope and Eas Asia
di e in ou e, bu show some common pa e ns. In his
F. Sielke and P. Dannenbe g: New economic geog aphies o wa —47
Table 1: P ominen examples o isks and challenges o ade ac oss di e en Eu ope – Asia ade ou es (own compila ion).
Rou e Gene al isks and challenges o Eu ope Risks and challenges ela ed o he
changing si ua ion in Uk aine
Eu opean en y poin s ia p ima ily land-based ou es
C oss-Russia Co ido –Reduced a ic in imes o sanc ions
–Risk o u he mili a y in e en ion
–Oppo uni ies o con olling ade olumes
be ween Eu ope and China by Russia
–Sanc ions ha e limi ed ade ia Russia
Bal ic C ossing –Poli ical alliance wi h Russia
–Inc eased dependency on Russian
geopoli ical in e es s
–Pa ial disin eg a ion o he ade ou es
c ossing om Uk aine o Bela us
–C ea ion o an ex ension o he Russian
bo de a Bela us’s bo de
–Inc eased economic dependency o Bela us
owa ds Russia
Uk aine Land C ossing –Risks o loss o so e eign secu i y and ade
ou es
–Subjec o all implied isks as well as ela ed
isks and ela ed e ec s (see Figu e 1)
–Comple e e lec ion o all wa induced
challenges and e ec s as ou lined in
Figu e 1
Caucasus – Black Sea – Uk aine – C ossing –Risks o loss o so e eign secu i y and ade
ou es in pa s o Geo gia
–Inc eased dominance o Russian in luence
on Black Sea ading
–Inc eased dependency on Russian and
Tu kish geopoli ical in e es s, and eliance
on ewe ading op ions.
–New acu e physical isks caused by mili a y
ac i i y (i.e. sea mines, deb is, a bi a y
inspec ion)
Caucasus – Black Sea C ossing – Danube
C ossing
–Capaci y limi a ions due o he shipping
capaci ies in he Danube Del a and
alongside he Danube i e
–Risks o loss o so e eign secu i y and ade
ou es in pa s o Geo gia
–Delayed shipping ac i i ies due o capaci y
p oblems inc eased
Tu key C ossing –Risks o loss o so e eign secu i y
–Use o nego ia ion in un ela ed ma e s
–Capaci y limi a ions on land- ou es in o
Eu ope
–Changed powe dynamics in he Black Sea
and delayed shipping ac i i ies
–Inc eased dependency
Eu opean en y poin s ia p ima ily ma i ime ou es
A c ic – No h Sea Co ido (No he n BRI
ma i ime Rou e, also called he Pola Silk
Road)
–Capaci y limi a ions due o physical
condi ions
–Technologically ad anced shipping
solu ions needed
–Discussion on e i o ial claims o e ou e
be ween Russia, China and Eu ope may
inc ease
Suez Channel Co ido (Sou he n BRI Rou e) –Capaci y limi a ions due o he limi ed size
o he channel
–Rebel a acks and pi acy
–Inc eased capaci y limi a ions due o
eloca ion o ade pa e ns
Cape Rou e ( ia Sou h A ica, no in map) –Time and cos s o ou e
–Rebel a acks
48 —F. Sielke and P. Dannenbe g: New economic geog aphies o wa
sec ion, we summa ise hese alongside he geopoli ical inse-
cu i ies o he di e en egions, fi s o he land-based
ou es and second o he ma i ime ou es.
3.1 Risks and challenges o p ima ily
land-based ou es and hei geopoli ical
ensions
China pushed he de elopmen o land-based ade ou es
o e Eu asia as pa o he BRI na a i e wi h he p omise
o mo e flexibili y and speed, despi e i being on a e age
cos lie han he ma i ime ade ou es (Dannenbe g and
Sielke 2023). Fo example, ansi imes ia land om Chon-
qing o Duisbu g a e now 10–12 days (down om 28 days in
2007), whe eas he ansi ime om Shanghai o Medi e -
anean po s can be up o 10 days sho e han o he No h
Sea ha bou s (Eu asian Rail Alliance Index 2023, In e iews
Duispo ). Liu and Ke (2018) find ha ansi om Shanghai
o Pi aeus by COSCO akes 21 days, and 31 days o he as es
ca iage om Shanghai o Hambu g. Rail ou es a e hus
mo e a ac i e o jus -in- ime deli e ies, as needed in he
heal h indus y, o example. Fu he mo e, he land ou es
gained impo ance du ing he COVID pandemic when di e -
en Chinese ha bou s aced subs an ial olume educ ions,
in pa icula du ing he long lockdowns o key eigh ha -
bou s in Shenzhen and Shanghai (GTAI 2023).
Howe e , land-based ade ou es come wi h inc eased
dependency on a ew coun ies. Russia is he mos impo -
an playe , ollowed by o he Black Sea adjacen coun-
ies. The C oss-Russia Co ido is o key impo ance o
Eu asian ading. This is exemplified by Russia eceip o
287 billion USD in BRI in es men s, he highes amoun o
all BRI membe coun ies ou side China un il 2020 (Refini i
2020). The C oss-Russia Co ido hen spli s in o di e en
ou es. I en e s ei he ia Finland and he Gul o Finland
o ia he Bal ic C ossing (Es onia, La ia, Li huania). This
second ou e equi es c ossing he Suwalki gap, an a ea
o cons an ension wi h Russia. The Suwalki gap is he
na owes passage be ween Bela us and he Kalining ad
Oblas , a Russian encla e. A mili a y in e en ion does no
seem o be imminen , ye ecen commen a y by Pu in
indica es some demand o e i o ial so e eign y in his
egion, c ea ing geopoli ical ensions pa icula ly wi h he
Bal ic S a es. Ano he ou e wi hin his co ido is named
“ he Bela us C ossing,” connec ing o Poland and he Bal ic
S a es, as well as Uk aine. Bela us is a close ally o Russia,
hus ade ou es ia Bela us could po en ially be dis up ed
as a esul o geopoli ical ensions be ween he EU and
Russia.
The Black Sea is a egion o majo con es a ion and
con on a ion, wi h Russia claiming e i o ial so e eign y
o e la ge po ions o i s na igable wa e s. The Uk aine
Land C ossing is hus in an ex emely sensi i e geopoli ical
loca ion, wi h po s such as Odessa o Ma iupol being c u-
cial o ade ou es in he Black Sea. I is likely ha hei
impo ance o in e na ional ading is one eason hese
po s we e a ge ed ea ly in he Uk aine wa .
The h ee co ido s ( he Caucasus – Black Sea
– Uk aine – C ossing, he Caucasus – Black Sea – Danube
C ossing and he Tu key C ossing) ha me ge in he Black
Sea mus fi s pass h ough Kazakhs an, he Caspian Sea,
o I an. They hen con inue o Aze baijan o A menia and
hen ia ei he Geo gia o Tu key in o he Black Sea, o ia
land h ough Tu key o Sou heas Eu ope. Ano he ou e
con inues ia Russia o Uk aine owa ds Cen al Eu ope.
All hese ou es come wi h hei own po en ial conflic s.
The Tu key C ossing is he mos impo an land-based
ou e sou h o he Black Sea connec ing in e na ional ade
ou es wi h Sou heas Eu ope, making Tu key an impo an
Eu opean pa ne . Tu keys’ ele ance o ade as well as o
o he geopoli ical ma e s is also e iden h ough i s ole in
he mig a ion ou es, as well as by being a NATO membe .
The no he nmos ou e sou h o he Russian Fede a-
ion, he Caucasus – Black Sea – Uk aine – C ossing,en e s
he Black Sea ia Geo gia and hen connec s o Poland and
Cen al Eu ope ia Uk aine. Poland i sel connec s o he
No h Sea ia he Elbe Ri e , which is al eady unning a
ull capaci y much o he yea . He e, Russia’s in e es and
p esence in Moldo a and T ansnis ia need o be consid-
e ed, as well as i s p esence in Abkhazia and Sou h Osse ia
in Geo gia. The 2008 Russian wa agains Geo gia in Sou h
Osse ia is indica i e o he Russian in e es in exe ing u -
he influence on he egions sou h o he G ea Caucasus
ange (Flanagan e al. 2020). In Geo gia, he conflic o e
Abkhazia is a longs anding dispu e, wi h Abkhazia seeking
au onomy (see o example, F ancis 2011). Since Russia’s
wa on Sou h-Osse ia in Geo gia, he Russian Fede a ion
has ecognised Abkhazia and Sou h-Osse ia as independen
s a es. Ge i s and Bade (2016, p. 297), o example, a gue
ha he “economic, in e go e nmen al, echnoc a ic and
social linkages be ween Russia and he wo egions a e
ex ao dina ily deep”. While he conflic be ween Geo gia
and Abkhazia is mo e complica ed, he Russian “pa onage”
o Abkhazia comes wi h addi ional access o he Black Sea,
nea Po i and Ba umi, he wo main Black Sea ha bou s o
Geo gia. Du ing Russia’s 2008 wa agains Geo gia, Russia
u he displayed i s geopoli ical dominance in he egion
as i e ec ed a mili a y sea bo de s opping shipping in
and ou o Geo gian ha bou s wi h he Black Sea Flee
