Imanbaye a, Zau esh e al.
A icle
S a e egula ion o he digi al ans o ma ion o
ag ibusiness in he con ex o he clima e c isis
in ensi ica ion
Economies
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
MDPI – Mul idisciplina y Digi al Publishing Ins i u e, Basel
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Imanbaye a, Zau esh e al. (2024) : S a e egula ion o he digi al ans o ma ion
o ag ibusiness in he con ex o he clima e c isis in ensi ica ion, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099,
MDPI, Basel, Vol. 12, Iss. 10, pp. 1-23,
h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies12100270
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Ci a ion: Imanbaye a, Zau esh,
Geo ge Abuselidze, Akma al
Bukha baye a, Ku alay J auo a,
Aizhan O albaye a, and Mai a
Kusheno a. 2024. S a e Regula ion o
he Digi al T ans o ma ion o
Ag ibusiness in he Con ex o he
Clima e C isis In ensi ica ion.
Economies 12: 270. h ps://doi.o g/
10.3390/economies12100270
Academic Edi o : Weixin Yang
Recei ed: 24 July 2024
Re ised: 26 Sep embe 2024
Accep ed: 1 Oc obe 2024
Published: 4 Oc obe 2024
Copy igh : © 2024 by he au ho s.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land.
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dis ibu ed unde he e ms and
condi ions o he C ea i e Commons
A ibu ion (CC BY) license (h ps://
c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/
4.0/).
economies
A icle
S a e Regula ion o he Digi al T ans o ma ion o Ag ibusiness
in he Con ex o he Clima e C isis In ensi ica ion
Zau esh Imanbaye a
1
, Geo ge Abuselidze
2,3,
* , Akma al Bukha baye a
4
, Ku alay J auo a
5
, Aizhan O albaye a
4
and Mai a Kusheno a 6
1Depa men o Public Adminis a ion, Finance and Ma ke ing, K. Zhubano Ak obe Regional Uni e si y,
A. Moldagulo a P ospec 34, Ak obe 030000, Kazakhs an
2Depa men o Finance, Banking and Insu ance, Ba umi Sho a Rus a eli S a e Uni e si y, Ninosh ili 35,
6010 Ba umi, Geo gia
3
School o Business and Adminis a i e S udies, The Uni e si y o Geo gia, Kos a a 77a, 0171 Tbilisi, Geo gia
4Depa men o Finance, Accoun ing and Audi ing, Ko ku A a Kyzylo da Uni e si y, A. He zen 26,
Kyzylo d 120012, Kazakhs an
5
O ice o he De elopmen and Implemen a ion o Educa ional P og ams, Kyzylo da B anch o he Academy
o Public Adminis a ion unde he P esiden o he Republic o Kazakhs an, Mic o egion Shugila House 50,
Kyzylo da 120016, Kazakhs an
6Depa men o Economics and Managemen , Ko ku A a Kyzylo da Uni e si y, A. He zen 26,
Kyzylo da 120012, Kazakhs an
*Co espondence: geo [email p o ec ed]; Tel.: +995-571090900
Abs ac : The esea ch s a es ha he exace ba ion o he clima e c isis obse ed in ecen yea s is
accompanied by an inc ease in g ound-le el empe a u es, na u al disas e s, loss o wa e esou ces,
and o he ex eme wea he e en s, which signi ican ly impac he economy, wa e , and ood secu i y
o wa e -dependen coun ies and he expec ed consequences sho ly. Fo his pu pose, du ing
his esea ch, da a om he Bu eau o Na ional S a is ics o he Agency o S a egic Planning and
Re o ms o he Republic o Kazakhs an we e s udied, and a sample o p i a e indica o s o he
coun y’s ag ibusiness digi aliza ion po en ial was made, which we e u he no malized o cons uc
a ma hema ical model o he co ela ion be ween he le el o digi aliza ion o he ag icul u al sec o
and he olume o wa e consumed by ag ibusiness. The easibili y o using ag icul u al no es
(elec onic ag icul u al eceip s) in Kazakhs an’s ag ibusiness as an inno a i e ool o a ac ing
unds o de elop ag icul u al p oduc ion is jus i ied. I is highligh ed ha he ag icul u al no e has
he po en ial o become a success ul ool o a ac ing unds o he digi aliza ion o he ag icul u al
sec o , p o ided i acqui es he s a us o a ull- ledged ma ke p oduc , in which s a e egula ion o
Kazakhs an’s ag ibusiness digi al ans o ma ion plays a signi ican ole.
Keywo ds: digi aliza ion; digi al ans o ma ion o ag ibusiness; clima e c isis; go e nmen egula-
ion o digi al ans o ma ion; wa e dependence o he coun y
1. In oduc ion
The agg a a ion o he clima e c isis obse ed in ecen yea s is accompanied by
an inc ease in su ace empe a u es, na u al disas e s, loss o wa e esou ces, and o he
ex eme wea he e en s which ha e a a he pain ul impac on he economy, wa e , and
ood secu i y o he wa e -dependen coun ies o Cen al Asia, which includes he Republic
o Kazakhs an (RK).
Kazakhs an is he nin h la ges coun y in e ms o a ea, bu o many yea s, i has
emained wa e -dependen wi h a g adually inc easing p oblem o wa e de ici , because
i s ly, se en ou o eigh i e basins in Kazakhs an a e ansbounda y, i.e., mos o he
wa e comes om neighbo ing coun ies; secondly, Kazakhs an is loca ed in an a id, d y
clima e zone, wi h he sou he n and eas e n egions o he coun y in moun ainous and
o es ed zones, he wes e n egions in he zones o he Caspian Sea and i e basins, and
Economies 2024,12, 270. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies12100270 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/economies
Economies 2024,12, 270 2 o 23
he cen al and no he n egions in s eppe zones wi h minimal ege a ion and wa e de ici ,
which is becoming mo e p onounced wi h clima e change; hi dly, o e he pas 50–60 yea s,
wi h he inc ease in empe a u e, he glacie s o he Cen al Asian moun ains ha e e ea ed
mo e han one kilome e and los almos a hi d o hei olume, which has had nega i e
consequences o he wa e po en ial o he coun y (Suleimeno a 2023) (in pa icula , he
shallowing o i e s such as he Tobol, I ysh, Yesil, e c.).
Unde s anding he impo ance o sol ing his p oblem, he Go e nmen o Kazakhs an
has been ac i ely wo king o se e al yea s on coo dina ed and in eg a ed basin-based wa-
e managemen and ansbounda y coope a ion wi hin he amewo k o he Con en ion
on he P o ec ion and Use o T ansbounda y Wa e cou ses and In e na ional Lakes (1992),
which Kazakhs an joined in 2001, he Con en ion on he Law o he Non-na iga ional
Uses o In e na ional Wa e cou ses (1997), a i ied by Kazakhs an in 2024 (In o ma ion
Po al o he Regional En i onmen al Cen e o Cen al Asia 2024), he Join S a emen
o he Go e nmen s o he C5+1 Coun ies as o 25 Sep embe 2023, and o he in e s a e
ag eemen s (US Embassy and Consula e in Kazakhs an 2023).
Howe e , he educ ion in he olume o wa e eaching Kazakhs an om neighbo ing
coun ies because o clima e change has eached a c i ical le el. This necessi a es he
implemen a ion o mo e decisi e measu es o a e a wa e and ood ca as ophe (Eldeso
2021). Acco ding o Wo ld Bank o ecas s, by 2030, he olume o esh wa e in Kazakhs an
will dec ease by i e imes, eaching 23 km
3
, which is compa able o he annual wa e
consump ion a e (Chynybae a 2023). This implies ha in he o hcoming yea s, he wa e
de ici in Kazakhs an will amoun o app oxima ely 15% o he o al wa e in ake (Nu bay
2022). This should be ega ded as a genuine h ea o wa e and ood secu i y, uncon olled
mig a ion, he economic de elopmen o he coun y, and he po en ial o con lic in he
egion (UNDP 2021).
O pa icula conce n is he an icipa ed launch o he Kosh-Tepa channel in A ghanis an
in 2028, which expe s p edic will p ecipi a e a wa e c isis in he egion. Howe e , as
T. O oskulo co ec ly asse s, “The undamen al issue o wa e sca ci y in Cen al Asian
coun ies is no he quan i y o wa e a ailable, bu a he he olume o consump ion and
losses” (Ma yasho a 2023).
S a is ical da a indica e ha he p ima y consume o wa e in he RK is i iga ed
ag icul u e, which annually accoun s o app oxima ely 70% o he o al wa e in ake
(Bu eau o Na ional S a is ics 2023). Concu en ly, wa e loss in p ima y, in e - a m, and
in a- a m canal sys ems due o he high deg ee o wea o he i iga ion in as uc u e is
es ima ed o be app oxima ely 50% (Skako a 2023). As ou lined in he epo “E icien
I iga ion and Wa e Conse a ion in Cen al Asia,” (Vinoku o e al. 2023) which was
au ho ed by expe s om he Eu asian De elopmen Bank, he a ional use o wa e ese es
and he elimina ion o wa e losses would enable Kazakhs an o no only educe he olume
o i s sho age bu also o o m a s a egic ese e o he u u e. Consequen ly, in 2024,
he Go e nmen o Kazakhs an app o ed he Concep o he De elopmen o he Wa e
Resou ces Managemen Sys em o he RK o he pe iod 2024–2030. This documen ou lines
a numbe o u gen measu es o he cons uc ion o ese oi s and he econs uc ion o
hyd aulic s uc u es, i iga ion sys ems, and g oup wa e pipelines. These measu es a e
designed o educe unp oduc i e wa e losses du ing anspo a ion om 50% o 25%. This
educ ion will inc ease he wa e esou ces a ailable o he RK by 2.4 cubic kilome e s
annually (Skako a 2023).
Ne e heless, he implemen a ion o his concep will only mi iga e he exis ing p ob-
lem o wa e loss bu will no esol e i en i ely. The achie emen o nea -ze o losses is
possible only h ough he implemen a ion o inno a i e digi al echnologies designed o
conse e wa e . Consequen ly, he modi ica ion o egula o y amewo ks o he digi al
ans o ma ion o ag ibusiness wi hin he con ex o he s a e’s s a egic policy should be
acco ded pa icula p io i y.
Economies 2024,12, 270 3 o 23
The e o e, his s udy is ocused on inding possible ways o modi y he mechanism
o he digi al ans o ma ion o ag ibusiness in he Republic o Kazakhs an h ough he
in oduc ion o inno a i e ools o s a e egula ion.
The goal o his scien i ic esea ch is o modi y he mechanism o s a e egula ion o
he digi al ans o ma ion o ag ibusiness o he RK by expanding he lis o i s oolki wi h
“ag a ian no es”—a ool o a ac ing unds o he ag a ian sec o o he economy o he
implemen a ion o he Wa e Resou ces Managemen P og am o he RK o 2020–2030 and
he c ea ion o “sma i iga ion”.
To achie e his goal, he ollowing h ee asks we e o mula ed. The i s is o es ablish
he ac o s ha cons ain he de elopmen o ag ibusiness in Cen al Asian coun ies in
he con ex o he wo sening clima e c isis. The second is o analyze he policy o s a e
egula ion o wa e in ake by ag ibusiness in Kazakhs an and he possibili y o c ea ing
“sma i iga ion”. The hi d is o sea ch o ways o modi y he mechanism o s a e
egula ion o he digi al ans o ma ion o ag ibusiness.
The s uc u e o he a icle includes an in oduc ion, analysis o li e a y sou ces,
goals and objec i es o he s udy, ma e ials and me hods, esul s o he de elopmen o a
mechanism o s a e egula ion o he digi aliza ion o he ans o ma ion o ag ibusiness
in he con ex o he agg a a ion o he clima e c isis, a discussion o he esea ch esul s,
and conclusions.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
An analysis o publica ions gi es g ounds o asse ha he opic unde conside a ion
has a ai ly solid esea ch base, as e idenced by a numbe o annual epo s o he Wo ld
Me eo ological O ganiza ion, The Wo ld Bank, he Eu asian De elopmen Bank, epo s
o a ing and analy ical cen e s, scien i ic publica ions, and speeches. In pa icula , T i
Waluyo subs an ia es ha he use o digi al echnologies in he ag icul u al sec o has a
signi ican posi i e e ec since he de elopmen o p ecision a ming based on emo e
sensing, he in oduc ion o in eg a ed da abases and cloud se ices, mobile solu ions,
con ol and accoun ing senso s, and o he digi al elemen s con ibu e o he ope a ional
e iciency o ag ibusiness and i s sus ainable de elopmen (Waluyo 2024). The au ho
emphasizes ha inc easing he in e es and mo i a ion o a me s in he implemen a ion
o digi al echnologies should be ca ied ou h ough co- inancing o expenses in he
o m o subsidies om he s a e, he in oduc ion o “digi al” bene i s, and ax educ ion
(Waluyo 2024).
Zhou e al. (2023), using 30 Chinese p o inces as an example, highligh he eno mous
p ac ical alue o ag ibusiness digi aliza ion in imp o ing he o al ac o p oduc i i y o
g een ag icul u e (AGTFP). Analyzing a numbe o s a egic documen s o he Cen al
Go e nmen o China (2022), namely he “Digi al Coun yside De elopmen S a egy”,
he “Ou line o he Digi al Coun yside De elopmen S a egy”, he “Digi al Ru al De el-
opmen Ac ion Plan (2022–2025)”, and he esul s o hei implemen a ion, he au ho s
emphasize he ole o go e nmen incen i es o he digi aliza ion o he ag icul u al sec o
as a d i ing o ce o he de elopmen o g een ag icul u e and he c ea ion o digi al
illages (Zhou e al. 2023).
Wang e al. (2023,2024), ha ing s udied he p o inces o he PRC, p o e ha he
c ea ion o digi al illages and he digi aliza ion o ag ibusiness signi ican ly accele a e he
economic de elopmen o no only he ag icul u al sec o bu also he e i o ies. Among
he mechanisms o s imula ing he digi al ans o ma ion o ag ibusiness, he au ho s
ecognize s a e assis ance o en ep eneu ship (Wang e al. 2023;Wang e al. 2024).
Pashko and Mazhi o a (2021), emphasizing he dis inc i e ea u es o he digi al
ans o ma ion o ag icul u e in Kazakhs an and he No h Kazakhs an egion ( he oldes
egion o d yland a ming), a gue ha he main measu es o u he digi aliza ion o
ag ibusiness in he RK should be inno a i e and pa e nalis ic (s a e s imula ion o ag o-
o ma ions, e c.) measu es.
Economies 2024,12, 270 4 o 23
Resea ch by Danko a e al. (2022), ha ing s udied he le el o digi aliza ion o i iga ed
ag icul u e in Cen al Asia, subs an ia es he need o p e e en ial lending and s a e suppo
o he digi al mode niza ion o i iga ion in he egion in o de o eliably deli e (wi hou
losses) i iga ion wa e and o ganize a high le el o con ol o e i s consump ion.
Vinoku o e al. (2021,2022,2023) ocus on he mechanism o subsidizing he in o-
duc ion o digi al echnologies in i iga ion, emphasizing he e ec i eness o i s applica ion
using he example o wa e -dependen Eu opean coun ies.
Be bel e al. (2019) subs an ia e he easibili y o digi alizing he p ocess o wa e
consump ion by ag ibusiness as a undamen al basis o implemen ing he coun y’s en-
i onmen al iscal policy using he example o EU coun ies wi h bo h abundan wa e
po en ial (in pa icula , Ge many, Denma k, he Ne he lands, e c.) and i s de ici (in pa icu-
la , Po ugal, Spain, I aly, e c.). The au ho s emphasize ha he accumula ed en i onmen al
ax should be edis ibu ed be ween budge le els and pa ially di ec ed o he digi al
ans o ma ion o i iga ion sys ems o ag ibusiness.
Thus, we come o he conclusion ha in mos cases, indi ec egula ion ins umen s
a e used o egula e he p ocess o he digi aliza ion o ag ibusiness, such as s a e sup-
po , subsidies, p e e en ial lending, iscal egula ion, e c. Howe e , in he con ex o he
polyc isis ha has been obse ed in ecen yea s, hei applica ion is complica ed by he
s a e budge de ici . The e o e, he modi ica ion o he mechanism o s a e egula ion o
he digi al ans o ma ion o ag ibusiness by expanding he lis o i s ins umen s in he
con ex o he agg a a ion o he clima e c isis is o pa icula impo ance.
3. Me hodology
The main hypo hesis is ha he modi ica ion o he s a e mechanism o he digi aliza-
ion o wa e use in ag ibusiness will c ea e “sma i iga ion” and he opic will he eby
ensu e a signi ican educ ion in wa e losses h ough imely measu es o esou ce-sa ing
use o he coun y’s wa e po en ial. The ma e ials o his s udy we e da a om he Uni ed
Na ions Economic Commission o Eu ope, he In o ma ion Po al o he Regional En i on-
men al Cen e o Cen al Asia (2024), he Eu asian De elopmen Bank, he In o ma ion
Po al o he Regional En i onmen al Cen e o Cen al Asia, he Agency o S a egic
Planning and Re o ms o he RK, he Bu eau o Na ional S a is ics, as well as he O icial
In o ma ion Resou ce o he P ime Minis e -Minis y o he Republic o Kazakhs an (2024).
In ligh o he indings o he a o emen ioned s udies and he a ailabili y o da a on he
digi aliza ion o ag ibusiness in Kazakhs an, he pa sing me hod was selec ed o asce ain
he comp ehensi e index o digi aliza ion in he RK, which in ol es he collec ion o da a
om web esou ce pages.
E alua ing he impac o digi aliza ion on he esou ce e iciency o ag ibusiness, wi h
a pa icula ocus on he a ionali y o esh wa e u iliza ion o i iga ion, we apply he
en opy me hod o assess da a a iabili y and unce ain y because o he a ying scales
and compa abili y issues o he s a is ical da a p esence (Han e al. 2012;Zong e al. 2021).
This app oach s anda dizes he da a in o a no malized o m, de e mines he signi icance o
each indica o , and cons uc s an in eg al index e lec ing he o e all si ua ion based on
mul iple ac o s.
As highligh ed by ecen s udies (Dou e al. 2023;Zhou 2022;Ra he e al. 2023),
wo king wi h small da ase s in machine lea ning poses signi ican challenges, including
limi ed da a di e si y, noise, imbalanced dis ibu ions, and high dimensionali y, which
can educe he gene alizabili y and e ec i eness o models, as hey s uggle o lea n
and gene alize om limi ed da a. Unlike humans, who can excel a lea ning om a ew
obse a ions, a i icial in elligence models s uggle o lea n and gene alize e ec i ely om
sca ce da a (Jin e al. 2022). The lack o su icien da a o en hinde s p edic ion accu acy,
especially wi h imbalanced samples (Sa ono a e al. 2023). Sample size is a c ucial ac o in
ime se ies analysis and eg ession modeling because i impac s he eliabili y and alidi y
o he esul s (Hech and Zi zmann 2020). Howe e , we a e cons ained by he a ailabili y
o open-sou ce da a and un o una ely do no ha e he means o inc ease he sample size.
Economies 2024,12, 270 5 o 23
Ad anced echniques like ans e lea ning and da a augmen a ion a e ypically equi ed
o imp o e pe o mance wi h small da ase s (Jin e al. 2022;Zhou 2022).
In ime se ies eg ession, limi ed da a can lead o inaccu a e model i ing, poo
gene aliza ion (Hyndman and A hanasopoulos 2018), and inc eased isk o o e i ing.
Models like ARIMA o SARIMA may s uggle wi h uns able o biased pa ame e es ima es,
and adi ional alida ion echniques may be less e ec i e (Box e al. 2015;Woodwa d e al.
2017;Mon gome y e al. 2015;Shmueli and Polak 2024).
By quan i ying he unce ain y inhe en in he da a, he en opy me hod allows
decision-make s o assign weigh s ha e lec he eliabili y o impo ance o each ac-
o (Zhu e al. 2020). In en i onmen al and socio-economic assessmen s, whe e unce ain y
is p e alen , he en opy me hod is o en used o assign weigh s o di e en indica o s o ac-
o s based on hei con ibu ions o he o al unce ain y o he sys em (Zhang e al. 2023).
The choice o he en opy me hod o e o he me hods can be jus i ied based on se e al
ac o s. The en opy me hod p o ides a measu e o unce ain y o andomness in a da ase .
In digi al ag ibusiness, decisions o en need o be made despi e unce ain da a. The en opy
me hod p o ides a way o quan i y and inco po a e his unce ain y in o decision-making
p ocesses. Ag ibusiness da a come om di e se sou ces, such as sa elli e image y, IoT
senso s, and ma ke epo s. These sou ces o en p oduce da a o a ying quali y and
eliabili y. En opy helps in managing his he e ogenei y by iden i ying which da a sou ces
a e mo e consis en and which a e mo e a iable, aiding in he selec ion o eliable da a o
analysis (Wiha iko e al. 2023).
Ag ibusiness ope a es in dynamic en i onmen s whe e condi ions change apidly
(e.g., wea he , pes ou b eaks). The en opy me hod can be used o con inuously moni o
he unce ain y in he da a, allowing o adap i e managemen s a egies ha espond
o changing condi ions in eal ime. Unlike some me hods ha may only ocus on mean
alues o a iance, en opy cap u es he ull dis ibu ion o he da a, making i a mo e
comp ehensi e measu e o unce ain y. This is pa icula ly impo an in ag ibusiness,
whe e unde s anding he ull ange o po en ial ou comes is c ucial. In addi ion, he en opy
me hod does no assume any speci ic dis ibu ion o he da a, making i a lexible ool o
analyzing ag ibusiness da a, which may no ollow s anda d dis ibu ions. Ag ibusiness
digi aliza ion da a can be bo h disc e e (e.g., numbe o a ms adop ing a echnology) and
con inuous (e.g., ain all measu emen s). The en opy me hod can be applied o bo h ypes
o da a, p o iding a uni ied app oach o handling di e en da a o ms.
No maliza ion o he indica o s, i.e., b inging hem o a single scale, was ca ied ou
using he ollowing o mula:
e
x i =x i
∑10
=1x i
(1)
whe e is a le el o he se ies o he indica o unde conside a ion.
En opy Ei o each indica o iis calcula ed as
Ei=−1
ln 10∑10
=1
e
x i ln e
x i (2)
The in o ma ion coe icien di o each indica o iis calcula ed as
di=1−Ei(3)
The weigh o each indica o wiis de e mined as
wi=di
∑m
i=1di
(4)
whe e mis a numbe o indica o s.
The in eg al indica o
I j
o each le el
is calcula ed as he weigh ed sum o no mal-
ized alues:
I j =∑10
=1wi
e
x i (5)
Economies 2024,12, 270 6 o 23
whe e
j=
1, 2 a e indices o po en ials aken in o accoun o he in eg al indica o o
digi aliza ion.
I1
is an in eg al indica o o echnical po en ial o he digi aliza ion o he ag icul u al
sec o , and
I2
is an in eg al indica o o human esou ces po en ial o digi aliza ion o he
ag icul u al sec o .
Ne e heless, in o de o asce ain he ex en o which he ag icul u al sec o is p e-
pa ed o digi aliza ion, i is mo e app op ia e o u ilize a comp ehensi e indica o o he
digi aliza ion o ag ibusiness.
The comp ehensi e in eg al indica o o he digi aliza ion
Ici a
o each le el
will
be calcula ed as he a i hme ic mean o he alues o he in eg al indica o s:
Ici a = (I1+I2)/2 (6)
Missing da a in s a is ical compila ions a e ob ained ia linea in e pola ion using
adjacen alues. Linea in e pola ion is a commonly used me hod o handle missing da a,
especially when he amoun o missing da a is small. In ou case, when he missing da a
poin s a e ew and sca e ed and he gaps be ween he known da a poin s a e small, linea
in e pola ion can p o ide a good app oxima ion. This is because he assump ion o a
linea end is mo e likely o hold o e sho in e als. Linea in e pola ion main ains
he o e all end o he da a wi hou in oducing signi ican biases o dis o ions. This
is impo an when he goal is o p ese e he unde lying pa e ns in he da ase , such as
g adual inc eases o dec eases o e ime. I was chosen because o i s minimal complexi y; i
is compu a ionally simple and easy o implemen , making i a p ac ical choice o handling
missing da a. Unlike o he impu a ion me hods, such as polynomial in e pola ion o spline
me hods, linea in e pola ion does no equi e making s ong assump ions abou he na u e
o he da a beyond he assump ion o linea i y be ween poin s. This makes i a sa e and
mo e conse a i e choice when only a ew da a poin s a e missing.
Reg ession analysis is used o in e causal ela ionships be ween he independen
and dependen a iables: he consump ion o esh wa e by ag ibusiness is dependen
upon a numbe o ac o s, om which we ake in o accoun he le el o digi aliza ion,
s ess load on wa e esou ces, clima e changes, and g oss ou pu o ag icul u al p oduc s.
The e o e, he de elopmen o he ma hema ical model he e is based on eg essi e analy-sis,
as exempli ied by he app oach aken by Ohanisian e al. (2022).
The gene alized leas squa es (GLS) me hod was used o ind he coe icien s o he
nonlinea mul i a ia e model. This me hod allows o e icien es ima ion o model pa am-
e e s by accoun ing o po en ial he e oscedas ici y o co ela ions in he esiduals, making
i pa icula ly use ul in complex eg ession models (Guja a i 2021). GLS is employed
o imp o e s a is ical e iciency and educe he isk o d awing e oneous in e ences, as
compa ed o o dina y leas squa es and weigh ed leas squa es me hods.
To de e mine he mos sui able o m o he nonlinea models, we employed he
me hod o di ec ed enume a ion, which sys ema ically es s a a ie y o unc ional o ms,
including linea , mul iplica i e, polynomial, exponen ial, and loga i hmic dependencies.
By calcula ing he de ia ion po en ials (Ohanisian e al. 2022;Shyshkano a 2018), we we e
able o iden i y which model bes ep esen ed he unde lying ela ionship be ween he
a iables. The selec ion o he op imal model was u he e ined by calcula ing he c i e ion
o he bes i o eal-wo ld da a, ollowing he guidelines o G eene (2018). This c i e ion
elies on e alua ing he goodness-o - i h ough a weigh ing unc ion applied o each
p edic ed alue in he pa ial likelihood es ima ion equa ion (Wahid e al. 2021). The aim is
o minimize he sum o squa ed de ia ions o assess how well he model’s p edic ions align
wi h obse ed alues. A e applying he in e se nonlinea ans o ma ion, he model ha
exhibi ed he smalles sum o squa ed de ia ions and a de e mina ion coe icien closes
o one was selec ed, ensu ing bo h he obus ness and accu acy o he p edic ions. The
calcula ion algo i hm was implemen ed by he au ho s in Py hon 3.0.
The ollowing es s we e ca ied ou : he Kwia kowski–Phillips–Schmid –Shin (KPSS)
es o check he s a iona i y o he se ies; he Fa a –Glaube Chi-squa e es o de ec -
Economies 2024,12, 270 7 o 23
ing he s eng h o he mul icollinea i y o e he whole se o explana o y a iables; he
Du bin–Wa son es and he Q-Ljung-Box o de ec he p esence o au oco ela ion; and he
Spea man’s es o de ec he p esence o he e oscedas ici y. The model alida ion was also
conduc ed using an F- es .
4. Resul s o he Sea ch o Ways o Modi y he Mechanism o S a e Regula ion o he
Digi al T ans o ma ion o Ag ibusiness in he Con ex o he Clima e C isis
In he con ex o he deepening clima e c isis, he issue o wa e esou ce de ici is
becoming inc easingly acu e, especially in he coun ies o Cen al Asia, among which
Kazakhs an is ecognized as he mos ulne able. In his egion, he empe a u e is ising
as e han he global a e age, leading o a educ ion in he a ea o glacie s, which en ails a
dec ease in i e uno and c ea es isks o ag icul u e and ood secu i y in he egion.
The e o e, he wa e managemen policy o he Cen al Asian coun ies is subo dina ed o
he in e es s o ag icul u e and he p o ision o i iga ed lands wi h i iga ion wa e . In he
coun y s uc u e o wa e consump ion o i iga ion needs in Cen al Asia, Ky gyzs an
(92.7%) and Uzbekis an (92.3%), his o ically specializing in co on cul i a ion, domina e.
They a e ollowed by Tajikis an (74.5%), Kazakhs an (62.7%), and Tu kmenis an (61.4%);
see Table 1.
Table 1. Indica o s o i iga ed land and wa e in ake o he needs o ag ibusiness a he end o 2022.
Uni o Measu emen
Wo ld
Cen al Asia
Kazakhs an Ky gyzs an
Tajikis an
Tu kmenis an Uzbekis an
Ag icul u al lands million hec a es 4744.46 283.81 214.00 10.37 4.92 33.84 25.69
Cul i a ed land (a able and pas u e)
million hec a es 1561.45 38.53 29.68 1.36 1.04 2.00 4.44
I iga ed lands million hec a es 331.71 10.11 2.243 1.03 0.76 1.80 4.28
% o cul i a ed land % 21.24 26.25 7.56 75.14 73.29 90.00 96.45
Realized po en ial o i iga ed lands
% 63.92 68.03 59.54 45.62 48.28 76.50 87.09
P ecipi a ion mm/yea 1170.66 368.2 250 533 691 161 206
In e nal enewable wa e esou ces km3/yea
42,808.60
194.49 64.35 48.93 63.46 1.41 16.34
To al wa e in ake km3/yea 4031.86 127.27 24.56 7.66 9.90 26.24 58.90
Wa e wi hd awal o ag icul u al
needs ela i e o o al wa e
wi hd awal
% - 78.9 62.7 92.7 74.5 61.4 92.3
Sou ce: Vinoku o e al. (2023).
Howe e , among he coun ies o Cen al Asia, he mos c i ical si ua ion is in Kaza-
khs an since i s wa e esou ces a e qui e limi ed compa ed o o he s a es. Due o geo-
g aphical peculia i ies, se en ou o eigh wa e basins o Kazakhs an a e ansbounda y,
as a esul o which Kazakhs an is la gely dependen on he wa e policy o neighbo ing
coun ies (People’s Republic o China, Russian Fede a ion, and Cen al Asian coun ies).
In his espec , he A al-Sy da ya (91%), Zhaiyk-Caspian (82%), Shu-Talas (74%), and
Balkhash-Alakol (48%) wa e basins a e he mos ulne able, and he Tobyl-To gai (12%)
and E is (20%) wa e basins a e he leas ulne able (Vinoku o e al. 2023), he deg ee o
wa e esou ces use o which is cha ac e ized by he da a o Table 2.
In 2023, he Minis y o Ag icul u e o he RK d ew a en ion o he h ea o wa e
sho ages o i iga ion o wa e -in ensi e c ops in Kyzylo da and Tu kes an p o inces,
which depend on he wa e esou ces o he A al Sea basin. In Zhambyl p o ince, a me s
began expe iencing wa e sho ages in mid-Ap il 2023 as a esul o he Ismail canal closu e.
In A y au p o ince, he main sou ce o wa e is he Zhaiyk (U al) Ri e , along which 80% o
a ms a e loca ed, bu i is becoming mo e and mo e di icul o b ing wa e o consume s
e e y yea because he in as uc u e buil in he 1960s is de e io a ing.
Economies 2024,12, 270 8 o 23
Table 2. Wa e esou ces u iliza ion le el wi hin he amewo k o wa e managemen i e basins o
he RK in 2022.
Wa e Managemen Basins
Wa e Resou ces (km3) *
Wa e In ake, (km3)
P essu e on Wa e Resou ces Kuse ***
Local To al (Local and
C oss-Bo de ) Local, (%/ca ego y) To al (Local and C oss-Bo de ),
(%/ca ego y)
A al-Sy da ya 2.16 18.7 10.7 495.4 V 57.2 IV
Balkhash-Alakol 16.5 29 4.1 24.8 III 14.1 II
E is 26.5 33.5 3.8 14.3 II 11.3 II
Esil 2.7 2.7 0.4 14.8 II 14.8 II
Zhaiyk-Caspian 3.1 11 2.4 77.4 V 21.8 III
Nu a-Sa ysu ** 0.9 1.6 1.4 155.6 V 87.5 V
Tobyl-To gai 1.7 2.1 0.1 5.9 I 4.8 I
Shu-Talas 1.0 3.7 2.1 210.0 V 56.8 IV
No es: * Ri e wa e esou ce indica o alues a e aken o a e age wa e yea s; ** wi hou aking in o accoun
wa e lowing h ough he Kanysh Sa paye Canal; *** I—low load, II—mode a e; III—high, IV— e y high,
V—c i ical. Sou ce: Vinoku o e al. (2023).
Due o he lack o i iga ion wa e in Kazakhs an, he a ea plan ed wi h ice has been
educed o he second consecu i e yea . I is also planned o educe he a ea alloca ed
o co on cul i a ion in a o o c ops ha equi e less wa e (Vinoku o e al. 2023). In
ligh o he an icipa ed ise in su ace ai empe a u e ac oss Kazakhs an, wi h an expec ed
inc ease o 0.8–1.2
◦
C pe annum, i is likely ha he e will be an inc ease in e apo a ion
o mois u e in i e ca chmen s. A educ ion in he quan i y o wa e lowing in o i e s,
a decline in he le el o he Caspian Sea and Lake Balkhash, an inc ease in he demand
o wa e esou ces o economic pu poses, and an expansion o i iga ion on i iga ed
lands will esul in a ise in he eal h ea o bo h he ood secu i y o he coun y and i s
sus ainable de elopmen (Table 3).
Table 3. Fo ecas alues o i e low esou ces o he Republic o Kazakhs an aking in o accoun
clima e change and an h opogenic p essu es by 2030, km3.
Wa e Managemen Basins
Local Resou ces In low Summa ized
To al
Including Ou low
Ou side he RK
(Re u n Ou low)
To al
Including Those Fo med in
he Te i o y o
Neighbo ing Coun ies
To al
A al-Sy da ya 3.17 0.48 14.4 13.9 17.1
Balkhash-Alakol 16.6 0.99 12.5 11.5 28.1
E is 26.5 1.31 7.13 5.82 32.3
Esil 2.47 - - - 2.47
Zhaiyk-Caspian 3.08 0.97 8.63 7.66 10.7
Nu a-Sa ysu 1.96 - - - 1.96
Tobyl-To gai 1.88 - 0.59 0.59 2.47
Shu-Talas 1.01 - 3.21 3.21 4.22
To al: 56.7 3.75 46.5 42.7 99.4
Sou ces: On App o al o he S a e P og am o Wa e Resou ces Managemen o he Republic o Kazakhs an o
2020–2030 2024 (2024), On App o al o he Concep o he De elopmen o he Wa e Resou ces Managemen
Sys em o he Republic o Kazakhs an o 2024–2030 2024 (2024).
The majo i y o wa e wi hd awal in Kazakhs an is a ibu ed o he ag icul u al sec o ,
wi h 67% o he o al olume being u ilized by ag ibusiness. The o al a ea o i iga ed
lands in 2022 was 2243.4 housand hec a es, o which only 1144.3 housand hec a es we e
in use. This implies ha app oxima ely 50% o he in as uc u e is in a s a e o dis epai
and equi es main enance and epai . The su ace ( u ow) me hod o c op i iga ion is
employed on app oxima ely 80% o he u ilized lands. An a ea o 185.8 housand hec a es is
i iga ed by sp inkling, while an a ea o 73.0 housand hec a es is i iga ed by d ip i iga ion.
The i iga ion sys ems a e ope a ed wi h equipmen ha is no longe s a e-o - he-a . The
ollowing i iga ion sys ems a e also in use: DM “F ega ”, “Dnep ”, “Volzhanka”, and
o he s (Vinoku o e al. 2023). Consequen ly, be ween 2020 and 2022, he a e age olume
Economies 2024,12, 270 15 o 23
In o de o asce ain he necessi y o inancial esou ces, i is essen ial o e alua e he
inancial expenses associa ed wi h digi aliza ion in ag icul u al en e p ises
Fcos
o e he
pe iod be ween 2013 and 2022 (Table 10).
Table 10. The inancial expenses associa ed wi h digi aliza ion in ag icul u al en e p ises du ing
2013–2022, million KZT.
Yea s ICT Cos s
Including
Pu chase o So wa e So wa e De elopmen Employee T aining Cos s o Paying o Se ices o
Thi d-Pa y ICT Bodies
To al T aining in Digi al Skills
2013 539.0 36.2 3.5 1.9 0.7 87.1
2014 600.5 44.3 2.2 2.4 1.3 151.5
2015 480.0 54.3 0.4 1.0 - 197.6
2016 742.8 102.0 2.7 1.6 0.9 129.0
2017 947.2 94.9 2.4 6.7 4.8 172.9
2018 948.7 81.4 2.8 3.9 1.6 179.7
2019 1027.4 144.9 2.6 3.3 1.9 219.1
2020 1421.1 158.0 0.6 6.7 5.4 299.2
2021 1413.9 133.0 15.5 4.9 3.7 453.9
2022 2428.2 194.7 21.8 8.7 3.6 972.6
Sou ce: Digi al Kazakhs an (2024).
The KPSS es s a is ic was equal o 0.1341 ela i e o
Ici a
and 0.1121 ela i e o
F1/3
cos
,
which a e less han he c i ical alue, so he es ailed o ejec he null hypo hesis. We can
make a conclusion ha he se ies conside ed he e a e s a iona y.
Using he OLS me hod, we compiled a nonlinea dependence o he digi aliza ion
indica o on he le el o inancial cos s:
Ici a =−0.260 +0.036F1/3
cos (8)
The Du bin–Wa son es s a is ic was compu ed as
d=
2.044. As i s alue was mo e
han 2, we conside ed
d∗=
4
−
2.044
=
1.956. A a signi icance o
α=
0.01 he c i ical
alues we e
dl=
0.88 and uppe
du=
1.32, so, as
du<d∗
, we can conclude ha he e is
no signi ican au oco ela ion p esen in he da a a he signi icance le el α=0.01.
Spea man’s ank co ela ion coe icien was 0.261, which is less he c i ical alue o
0.782 a
α=
0.01, n= 10. The e o e, we canno ejec he hypo hesis abou homoscedas ici y
and he e oscedas ici y is conside ed insigni ican .
The co ela ion coe icien o he linea ized model was
= 0.971, and he de e mina ion
coe icien o his model was
R2
= 0.942. Bo h alues a e close o one, indica ing su icien
densi y be ween he a iables. The c i ical alue o he Fishe coe icien was
Fk =
5.318
o a deg ees o eedom o
k1=
1,
k2=
8, and a signi icance le el
α=
0.05. The
calcula ed alue o he Fishe coe icien was
F
= 32.549, indica ing a eliabili y o 95%.
The e o e, i can be concluded ha an economic analysis can be conduc ed on he basis o
he adop ed model.
Figu e 3shows he ma hema ical model (8), ep esen ed by a solid line. The do ed
lines illus a e he 95% con idence in e al o he eg ession, while he do s ep esen he
s a is ical da a.
Equa ion (8) demons a es ha in o de o achie e an o e all in eg a ed digi aliza ion
indica o ha is 75% g ea e han he 2022 alue, i is necessa y o inc ease digi aliza ion
cos s by app oxima ely h ee old compa ed o 2022. This equa es o KZT 7.1 billion. O he -
wise, he consequences o he implemen a ion o clima e h ea s may be he agg a a ion o
in e s a e con adic ions, he de elopmen o new sou ces o en i onmen al ins abili y, he
dis up ion o socio-economic de elopmen p og ams, e c. (Medeu e al. 2018).
In o de o achie e his objec i e, he Go e nmen o Kazakhs an enac ed he Law o
he RK “On Amendmen s and Addi ions o Ce ain Legisla i e Ac s o he RK on Com-
munica ions, Digi aliza ion, Imp o ing he In es men Clima e and Elimina ing Excessi e
Legisla i e Regula ion” on 21 May 2024, as Legisla i e Ac No. 86-VIII (2024). This leg-
isla i e measu e p o ides o amendmen s and addi ions o a numbe o legisla i e ac s
o he RK on digi aliza ion and imp o ing he in es men clima e (On Amendmen s and
Economies 2024,12, 270 16 o 23
Supplemen s o Ce ain Legisla i e Ac s o he Republic o Kazakhs an on Communica ions,
Digi aliza ion, Imp o ing he In es men Clima e and Elimina ing Excessi e Legisla i e
Regula ion 2024).
Economies 2024, 12, 270 16 o 24
The Du bin–Wa son es s a is ic was compu ed as
044.2=d
. As i s alue was mo e
han 2, we conside ed
956.1044.24
*
=−=d
. A a signi icance o
01.0=
α
he c i ical
alues we e
=
l
d
0.88 and uppe
=
u
d
1.32, so, as *
dd
u
<
, we can conclude ha he e
is no signi ican au oco ela ion p esen in he da a a he signi icance le el
01.0=
α
.
Spea man’s ank co ela ion coe icien was 0.261, which is less he c i ical alue o
0.782 a
01.0=
α
, n = 10. The e o e, we canno ejec he hypo hesis abou
homoscedas ici y and he e oscedas ici y is conside ed insigni ican .
The co ela ion coe icien o he linea ized model was = 0.971, and he
de e mina ion coe icien o his model was
2
R = 0.942. Bo h alues a e close o one,
indica ing su icien densi y be ween he a iables. The c i ical alue o he Fishe
coe icien was
=
k
F
5.318 o a deg ees o eedom o =
1
k1, =
2
k8, and a
signi icance le el 05.0=
α
. The calcula ed alue o he Fishe coe icien was
F
=
32.549, indica ing a eliabili y o 95%. The e o e, i can be concluded ha an economic
analysis can be conduc ed on he basis o he adop ed model.
Figu e 3 shows he ma hema ical model (8), ep esen ed by a solid line. The do ed
lines illus a e he 95% con idence in e al o he eg ession, while he do s ep esen he
s a is ical da a.
Figu e 3. Con idence zone o inancial cos eg ession.
Equa ion (8) demons a es ha in o de o achie e an o e all in eg a ed digi aliza ion
indica o ha is 75% g ea e han he 2022 alue, i is necessa y o inc ease digi aliza ion
cos s by app oxima ely h ee old compa ed o 2022. This equa es o KZT 7.1 billion.
O he wise, he consequences o he implemen a ion o clima e h ea s may be he
agg a a ion o in e s a e con adic ions, he de elopmen o new sou ces o
en i onmen al ins abili y, he dis up ion o socio-economic de elopmen p og ams, e c.
(Medeu e al. 2018).
In o de o achie e his objec i e, he Go e nmen o Kazakhs an enac ed he Law o
he RK “On Amendmen s and Addi ions o Ce ain Legisla i e Ac s o he RK on
Communica ions, Digi aliza ion, Imp o ing he In es men Clima e and Elimina ing
Excessi e Legisla i e Regula ion” on 21 May 2024, as Legisla i e Ac No. 86-VIII (2024).
This legisla i e measu e p o ides o amendmen s and addi ions o a numbe o
legisla i e ac s o he RK on digi aliza ion and imp o ing he in es men clima e (On
Amendmen s and Supplemen s o Ce ain Legisla i e Ac s o he Republic o Kazakhs an
on Communica ions, Digi aliza ion, Imp o ing he In es men Clima e and Elimina ing
Excessi e Legisla i e Regula ion 2024).
Acco ding o he Law o he RK No. 86-VIII, as well as he Concep o De elopmen
o he Wa e Resou ces Managemen Sys em o he RK o 2024–2030, he in es ed unds
should be di ec ed o he digi aliza ion o a leas 3,500 km o i iga ion canals; he
digi aliza ion o wa e consump ion and loss accoun ing du ing anspo a ion along
Figu e 3. Con idence zone o inancial cos eg ession.
Acco ding o he Law o he RK No. 86-VIII, as well as he Concep o De elopmen
o he Wa e Resou ces Managemen Sys em o he RK o 2024–2030, he in es ed unds
should be di ec ed o he digi aliza ion o a leas 3500 km o i iga ion canals; he digi-
aliza ion o wa e consump ion and loss accoun ing du ing anspo a ion along main
and in e - a m canals; co e age o he wa e managemen in as uc u e wi h digi al ech-
nologies; he de elopmen o he digi al geose ice ( lood.gha ysh.kz) o lood modeling
and o ecas ing; he de elopmen o he in e ac i e geoin o ma ion pla o m o wa e
esou ces o he RK (h ps:// es -gid o.gha ysh.kz/abou ), e c. Tha is, bo h legisla i e and
s a egic documen s o he go e nmen o Kazakhs an clea ly de ine in es men ec o s.
A he same ime, he e a e no inno a ions ega ding hei a ac ion.
Cu en ly, he p ojec o he RSE “Kaz odkhoz” on he digi aliza ion o he wa e
channel “K-19” (2021–2025) is being implemen ed in Kazakhs an, which includes 119 main
and economically signi ican main and in e - a m i iga ion canals loca ed in he Alma y,
Zhambyl, Tu kes an, and Kyzylo da egions, wi h a o al wa e in ake o 6 cubic km.
The p ojec is inanced in he amoun o KZT 192 billion om he epublican budge and
in e na ional inancial o ganiza ions, in pa icula , he IDB (Bondal 2021).
Ne e heless, he po en ial o public in es men in he digi aliza ion o he ag icul-
u al sec o is cons ained by budge a y limi a ions. In ligh o hese conside a ions, i
becomes pe inen o explo e po en ial a enues o inancing he digi al ans o ma ion
o ag ibusiness om he p i a e sec o . Howe e , a ac ing such in es o s is challenging,
pa icula ly gi en he signi ican obs acles, including insu icien gua an ees o payback
and e u n o unds, he lack o unde s anding o in es men p ospec s, anspa ency o
epo ing, and o he s.
In wo ld p ac ice, his issue is esol ed by a ac ing ESG in es men s (Tkachenko
e al. 2023), which ha e been ac i ely scaled up in ecen yea s. Howe e , un o una ely,
Kazakhs an’s ag ibusiness canno ake ad an age o his oppo uni y, since Kazakhs an has
no a i ied he s anda ds o he o ma ion o ESG epo ing and has no de eloped a mech-
anism o e i ying he indica o s o he en i onmen al and social impac o ag icul u al
companies and hei good co po a e go e nance.
Mo eo e , no single ins umen is a panacea (including ESG in es men s) and he e o e
is no capable o sol ing all exis ing p oblems. The desi ed esul can be achie ed by
using a ious ins umen s, each o which has ce ain p ope ies and i s own ad an ages.
Thus, along wi h ESG in es men s, i is ad isable o use ag icul u al no es—non-emission
secu i ies ce i ying he uncondi ional obliga ion o he deb o , secu ed by colla e al, o
Economies 2024,12, 270 17 o 23
deli e ag icul u al p oduc s o pay money o he c edi o in acco dance wi h he e ms
de e mined by such a secu i y.
An ag a ian no e may be ep esen ed by an accoun wi hin he secu i ies deposi o y
accoun ing sys em, which displays in o ma ion ega ding he ag a ian no e and o he
pe inen de ails wi hin he Regis e o Ag a ian No es. Consequen ly, he Cen al Deposi-
o y and deposi o y ins i u ions wi hin he RK will be esponsible o he accoun ing and
ci cula ion o hese ag a ian no es. In o he wo ds, a me s will be able o independen ly
issue an elec onic ag a ian no e om a pe sonal e-cabine in a specially c ea ed egis e o
ag a ian no es, wi hou incu ing he cos o no a y se ices (Figu e 4).
Economies 2024, 12, 270 18 o 24
and subsequen ly sold in o de o epay he deb . Upon he comple e epaymen o he
deb , he ag a ian no e is deemed o be closed.
The mechanism o ag a ian no es is qui e easy o use, which is especially impo an
o small and medium-sized a me s. In addi ion, i allows o as e eceip o inancial
and ma e ial esou ces om c edi o s wi hou ansac ion cos s. Consequen ly, he
demand o his ins umen will g ow om a me s. Mo eo e , he highe i is, he mo e
o e s will come om c edi o s since his is how he ma ke wo ks.
Figu e 4. The mechanism o ag a ian no es ac ion.
Howe e , o he ag a ian no e o become a iable ins umen o secu ing unding
o he digi aliza ion o he ag icul u al sec o , i mus a ain he s a us o a ull- ledged
ma ke p oduc . This is one o he key objec i es o s a e-led egula ion o he digi al
ans o ma ion o ag ibusiness in Kazakhs an.
5. Discussion o he S udy Resul s on he Sea ch o Ways o Modi y he S a e
Regula ion Mechanism o he Ag ibusiness Digi al T ans o ma ion in Compa ison
wi h O he s
The p esen s udy places signi ican emphasis on he c i ical ole o s a e suppo and
capi al in es men in he digi aliza ion o ag ibusiness. This makes i di e en om
p e ious s udies o o he esea ches. In pa icula , he s udies by Kuandyko a e al. (2023)
p o ide an in-dep h analysis o he e ol ing legal amewo k o digi aliza ion in he
Figu e 4. The mechanism o ag a ian no es ac ion.
The Regis e o Ag a ian No es (he eina e e e ed o as he Regis e ) is an in o ma-
ion and communica ion sys em ha mus display in o ma ion on he issuance, con en and
change o de ails, e mina ion and encumb ance o ag a ian no es, as well as he beginning
o he compulso y execu ion o obliga ions unde ag a ian no es based on a special ex ac
om he Regis e . In his case, he holde and adminis a o o he Regis e mus be he
Cen al Secu i ies Deposi o y o he RK.
The ag a ian no es may be classi ied as ei he commodi y o inancial. A commodi y
no e is epaid wi h a ixed olume o a speci ic p oduc , whe eas a inancial no e is epaid
wi h cash. The decision ega ding he o m o ag a ian no e o be u ilized is a he disc e ion
o he c edi o . Upon ul illmen o he ag a ian no e, he ag eemen is deemed o be
Economies 2024,12, 270 18 o 23
e mina ed. In he e en o a iola ion o he e ms o condi ions o epaymen o he
ag a ian no e, he c edi o is en i led o ini ia e en o cemen p oceedings h ough he cou s.
In he e en ha a a me issues a commodi y ag a ian no e, he epaymen is accomplished
h ough he ans e o he colla e al o he c edi o . In he e en ha he a me has issued
a inancial ag a ian no e, he colla e al is ans e ed o sa ekeeping and subsequen ly sold
in o de o epay he deb . Upon he comple e epaymen o he deb , he ag a ian no e is
deemed o be closed.
The mechanism o ag a ian no es is qui e easy o use, which is especially impo an
o small and medium-sized a me s. In addi ion, i allows o as e eceip o inancial
and ma e ial esou ces om c edi o s wi hou ansac ion cos s. Consequen ly, he demand
o his ins umen will g ow om a me s. Mo eo e , he highe i is, he mo e o e s will
come om c edi o s since his is how he ma ke wo ks.
Howe e , o he ag a ian no e o become a iable ins umen o secu ing unding o
he digi aliza ion o he ag icul u al sec o , i mus a ain he s a us o a ull- ledged ma ke
p oduc . This is one o he key objec i es o s a e-led egula ion o he digi al ans o ma ion
o ag ibusiness in Kazakhs an.
5. Discussion o he S udy Resul s on he Sea ch o Ways o Modi y he S a e
Regula ion Mechanism o he Ag ibusiness Digi al T ans o ma ion in Compa ison
wi h O he s
The p esen s udy places signi ican emphasis on he c i ical ole o s a e suppo
and capi al in es men in he digi aliza ion o ag ibusiness. This makes i di e en om
p e ious s udies o o he esea ches. In pa icula , he s udies by Kuandyko a e al. (2023)
p o ide an in-dep h analysis o he e ol ing legal amewo k o digi aliza ion in he
indus y. Thei wo k conside s challenges a e e y le el o he ans o ma ion p ocess—
om ensu ing basic In e ne access o a me s o enhancing he legal egula ion o public
adminis a ion in digi aliza ion managemen . Howe e , he au ho s gi e seconda y im-
po ance o issues such as s a e suppo and capi al in es men in he digi aliza ion o
ag ibusiness, which, in ou iew, is a c i ical o e sigh . The c ea ion o “sma i iga ion”
sys ems in Kazakhs an’s ag ibusiness sec o equi es subs an ial in es men s and a clea
unde s anding o po en ial unding sou ces.
Ehle s e al. (2022) ha e de eloped ou scena ios o he digi aliza ion o he ag i- ood
sec o . These scena ios include he baseline digi aliza ion o he sec o in line wi h cu en
ends, s ong digi aliza ion o egula o y go e nance, he adop ion o au onomous a ming
echnologies, and he digi aliza ion o he ood business (Ehle s e al. 2022). These scena ios
e eal a ious gaps in achie ing he objec i es o Eu opean ag icul u al policy. Howe e ,
no ways o elimina e hese p oblems we e shown. Ou s udy, on he o he hand, clea ly
de ines he necessa y in es men s and me hods o secu ing hem, ensu ing he a ainmen
o goals, like he c ea ion o “sma i iga ion” in Kazakhs an.
Many esea ches emphasize ano he p oblem—despi e i s agmen ed na u e, he
cu en legal amewo k su ounding he digi aliza ion o ag icul u e is p og essing mo e
slowly han echnological ad ancemen s. P eceden s show ha laws a e o en eac i e,
placing public policy in a posi ion whe e i mus no only an icipa e he digi al ans o -
ma ion o ag ibusiness bu also ac i ely guide i owa ds sus ainabili y (MacPhe son e al.
2022). One o he conclusions o he p esen wo k s ongly asse s ha he mos e ec i e
way o achie e his is by empowe ing a ms o u ilize ag icul u al no es.
Resea ch conduc ed by Zhou e al. (2022) expands he exis ing esea ch by in eg a -
ing en i onmen al egula ion, digi al ans o ma ion, and ag icul u al p oduc i i y in o a
single amewo k h ough a deep heo e ical ex ension o he “Po e hypo hesis” (Zhou
e al. 2022). Howe e , he au ho s neglec ed o inco po a e a scena io app oach in hei
analysis. In con adic ion, he p esen s udy employs a scena io app oach e ec i ely o
p edic and discuss esul s. The e o e, unlike o he s udies, ou esea ch clea ly ou lines
s a egies o accele a e he digi aliza ion o ag ibusiness and d i e i s economic de el-
opmen . We demons a ed he easibili y o he p edic ed ou comes and highligh ed he
cu en limi a ions in his ield as well as he ec o s o u he esea ch on his opic.
Economies 2024,12, 270 19 o 23
6. Conclusions
This s udy’s indings indica e ha he in ensi ica ion o he clima e c isis obse ed
in ecen yea s, accompanied by ising g ound-le el empe a u es and he loss o wa e
esou ces in he RK, signi ican ly a ec s he coun y’s economy as well as i s wa e and
ood secu i y. The complexi y o wa e esou ce managemen in Kazakhs an is emphasized
by he ac ha se en ou o eigh i e basins a e ansbounda y, meaning ha he majo i y
o wa e esou ces o igina e om neighbo ing coun ies. Howe e , he main issue is no
he amoun o wa e a ailable bu a he i s consump ion and losses.
Acco ding o s a is ical da a, i iga ed ag icul u e is he p ima y wa e consume
in Kazakhs an, using app oxima ely 70% o he o al wa e in ake annually. Losses o
i iga ion wa e in main, in e - a m, and on- a m canal sys ems, due o he high deg ee o
wea and ea on he i iga ion in as uc u e, a e abou 50%. Thus, wi h he a ional use o
wa e esou ces and a educ ion in wa e losses, Kazakhs an can no only mi iga e wa e
sho ages bu also c ea e a s a egic ese e o he u u e. The e o e, in 2024, he go e n-
men o Kazakhs an app o ed he Concep o he De elopmen o he Wa e Resou ces
Managemen Sys em o he RK o 2024–2030, which includes se e al u gen measu es o
mi iga e wa e sca ci y, pa icula ly h ough he digi aliza ion o ag ibusiness.
Howe e , o implemen s a e egula o y ins umen s o he digi aliza ion o ag ibusi-
ness, i is essen ial o clea ly unde s and he sec o ’s eadiness o digi al ans o ma ion.
To his end, da a om he Bu eau o Na ional S a is ics o he Agency o S a egic Planning
and Re o ms o he RK we e s udied, and speci ic indica o s o he coun y’s ag ibusiness
digi aliza ion po en ial we e selec ed, no malized, and used o build a ma hema ical model
o he ela ionship be ween he le el o digi aliza ion in he ag icul u al sec o and i s wa e
consump ion.
The applica ion o he de eloped ma hema ical model du ing he s udy p o ed he ne-
cessi y o signi ican ly inc easing unding o he digi al ans o ma ion o he ag icul u al
sec o . Howe e , he oppo uni ies o s a e suppo in he digi aliza ion o ag icul u al p o-
duc ion a e limi ed by budge cons ain s. Consequen ly, he e is a need o seek inancing
sou ces o he digi al ans o ma ion o ag ibusiness om he p i a e sec o . A ac ing
p i a e sec o in es men is challenging due o signi ican obs acles, such as insu icien
gua an ees o e u n on in es men , lack o unde s anding o in es men p ospec s, ans-
pa ency o epo ing, and mo e.
In ecen yea s, Kazakhs an has c ea ed a legal amewo k o he s a e egula ion
o ag ibusiness digi aliza ion, which has only ou lined in es men di ec ions. Howe e ,
he e a e no inno a ions ega ding he a ac ion o unds o implemen ing digi al ans-
o ma ion p ojec s in he ag icul u al sec o . The e o e, we p opose using “ag a ian no es”
(elec onic ag icul u al eceip s) in Kazakh ag ibusiness as an inno a i e s a e egula o y
ool o he de elopmen o ag icul u al p oduc ion. Fo ag a ian no es o become a suc-
cess ul ool o a ac ing unds o he digi aliza ion o he ag icul u al sec o , hey mus
gain he s a us o a ull- ledged ma ke p oduc , a p ocess in which s a e egula ion should
play a leading ole. I s main ec o s should be he ollowing:
-
S a e suppo , as well as he o ma ion o a a o able en i onmen o a ac ing
in es men in he c ea ion o “sma i iga ion”;
-
Launch o a single pla o m as a sou ce o comp ehensi e in o ma ion on he possibili y
o using “ag icul u al no es” in ag ibusiness, expe ience o hei applica ion, legal
online consul a ions, e c.;
-
Ra i ica ion o CSDR and ESRS on he o ma ion o co po a e epo ing on he sus ain-
able de elopmen o ag ibusiness;
-
Ensu ing anspa ency o he use o “ag icul u al no es” in ag ibusiness om he
ini ial poin o i s epaymen ;
- O ganizing he ans e o knowledge on ansac ions wi h “ag icul u al no es”.
Fu he p ospec s o he p esen s udy will be aimed a s udying he s akeholde
app oach o he digi aliza ion o i iga ion in he RK on he basin p inciple. Also, he
Economies 2024,12, 270 20 o 23
applica ion o machine lea ning o compa ing and imp o ing he p oposed ma hema ical
model can be used.
Au ho Con ibu ions: Concep ualiza ion, G.A. and Z.I.; me hodology, G.A.; so wa e, G.A. and A.B.;
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au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: This esea ch ecei ed no ex e nal unding.
Ins i u ional Re iew Boa d S a emen : No applicable.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
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