Donehowe , G e chen
Wo king Pape
Mapping he unpaid ca e wo k economy in Asia
ADB Economics Wo king Pape Se ies, No. 777
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Asian De elopmen Bank (ADB), Manila
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Donehowe , G e chen (2025) : Mapping he unpaid ca e wo k economy in Asia,
ADB Economics Wo king Pape Se ies, No. 777, Asian De elopmen Bank (ADB), Manila,
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ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
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MAPPING THE UNPAID CARE
WORK ECONOMY IN ASIA
G e chen Donehowe
ADB ECONOMICS
WORKING PAPER SERIES
NO. 777
Ap il 2025
Mapping he Unpaid Ca e Wo k Economy in Asia
This pape explo es he me hods o answe ing some o he empi ical ques ions abou unpaid ca e wo k
using Na ional Time T ans e Accoun s, which show ha olde people, mainly women, a e a om being he
main sou ce o unpaid ca e demand, bu a e making ne ime ans e s o o he age g oups. Na ional Time
T ans e Accoun s a e also combined wi h popula ion p ojec ions o c ea e ca e p ojec ions. Fo he g oup o
Asian coun ies analyzed he e, he p ojec ions show (i) no sho all in po en ial childca e, (ii) some p ojec ed
sho all in adul and elde ca e, and (iii) a po en ial su plus o indi ec ca e in he o m o housewo k.
Abou he Asian De elopmen Bank
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ADB Economics Wo king Pape Se ies
Mapping he Unpaid Ca e Wo k Economy in Asia
G e chen Donehowe
No. 777 | Ap il 2025
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ABSTRACT
Aging popula ions in Asia a e wo ied ha hey a e acing a “ca e c isis,” wi h many olde people
in need o ca e ha ing no one o ca e o hem. Howe e , we do no ha e a clea pic u e o cu en
ca e pa e ns: How much ca e is cu en ly being consumed? Who is p o iding ha ca e? A e
women and men se ing equally as paid o unpaid ca egi e s? We explo e he me hods o
answe ing some o hese basic empi ical ques ions abou unpaid ca e wo k using he Na ional
Time T ans e Accoun s, which show ha olde people a e a om being a majo sou ce o unpaid
ca e demand, bu a e making ne ans e s o ime o o he age g oups well in o hei elde yea s.
In ou g oup o Asian coun ies (Bangladesh, India, he Republic o Ko ea, Mongolia, Thailand,
Tü kiye, and Vie Nam), hese ime ans e s come on a e age om women.
Keywo ds: elde ca e, childca e, unpaid ca e wo k, ime use, ans e s
JEL codes: J22, J16, J13, J14
I. INTRODUCTION
Ca e sus ains ou socie ies and economies. I b ings us in o he wo ld a bi h, when we would be
helpless wi hou he ca e o amily, communi y, and possibly paid ca egi e s. I is also a his s age
ha he c ea ion o ou human capi al begins. As we g ow up, ca e keeps households unning,
pu s ood on he able, and makes su e ha we ha e clean clo hes o wo k and school. Finally,
ca e suppo s us in old age, as many o us expe ience ailing heal h and educed capaci ies,
lea ing us ulne able and unable o sus ain ou sel es independen ly. In a wo ld whe e e ili y
and mo ali y a es a e changing, and o e ime, changing he sha es o young and old people in
a popula ion, i is inc easingly impo an o unde s and he ca e economy i we wan o main ain
s anda ds o li ing and he o e all well-being o he popula ion.
Asia and he Paci ic is aging apidly, making i an impo an place o s udy he ca e economy and
de elop ools o p edic i s u u e. As men ioned ea lie , old age is o en accompanied by
de e io a ing heal h, albei wi h g ea he e ogenei y a he indi idual le el, bu ul ima ely mos o
us will need he ca e and help o o he s as we age, ce ainly mo e so han in ou peak wo king
yea s. Some o his ca e akes he o m o heal h ca e p o ided by p o essional doc o s, nu ses,
o o he medical pe sonnel, bu much o he ca e is less in ensi e and p o ided by unpaid amily
ca egi e s. Olde people may need help wi h ac i i ies o daily li ing such as eeding and
g ooming, o wi h asks such as shopping, household main enance, and cleaning. I may also
in ol e in e mi en ac i i ies, such as moni o ing when olde people a e able o ake ca e o hei
inances o manage medical condi ions. Quali y ca e o his kind enables olde people o main ain
hei heal h and independence and enjoy a good quali y o li e. In he ace o an aging popula ion,
many policymake s, olde people’s ad oca es, and o he s akeholde s a e ying o unde s and
how ca e needs will change in he u u e and, in pa icula , whe he a “ca e c isis” is imminen ,
whe e he e a e many olde people who need ca e bu oo ew p o ide s, so ha olde people’s
ca e needs may no be me adequa ely o a all. In many socie ies wi h low e ili y a es, whe e
popula ion aging is expec ed o be qui e apid, he issue o ca ing o child en may also lack
a en ion. Wha will he demand and supply o ca e look like ac oss he age ange?
How do we explo e he issue o a ailabili y o ca e in a popula ion wi h a changing age s uc u e?
We begin by looking a he da a on cu en pa e ns o ca e consump ion and p oduc ion. Since
he need o ca e is highly age-dependen , we look a hese pa e ns by age. Since ca egi ing is
adi ionally a gende ed ask and skill associa ed wi h women, we also need o look a cu en
pa e ns by gende .
I we look a cu en pa e ns o ca e p oduc ion and consump ion as ep esen ing supply and
demand, we can p ojec he cu en pa e ns o ou ca e economy by age and gende in o he
u u e o see how he demand and supply o ca e is likely o change. This pape looks a one ype
o ca e—unpaid ca e wo k (UCW) p o ided by unpaid amily and communi y ca egi e s. Ma ke -
based supplie s o ca e play an impo an ole in he o e all ca e economy. While his pape
men ions p elimina y e o s o include hese aspec s, i will p ima ily ocus on UCW as a means
o es ablishing he building blocks o documen ing cu en ca e pa e ns in bo h he paid and
unpaid sec o s. This e o con ibu es o his documen a ion o he UCW economy and can be
combined wi h u u e wo k on he paid ca e economy and hei in e ac ion.
This pape con ines i s geog aphic scope o Asia and he Paci ic. The UCW economy will ha e
speci ic ea u es in his egion compa ed o o he s. O e all, Eu ope is cu en ly he oldes egion
2
in he wo ld and he majo i y o he popula ion li es in weal hy coun ies. Eu opean go e nmen s
he e o e ha e mo e esou ces and po en ially mo e lexibili y o mee ca e needs h ough a
combina ion o paid and unpaid p o ide s. The demog aphic ansi ion in Eu ope, whe e he
popula ion has mo ed om high o low e ili y and mo ali y, has also been much slowe han in
Asia and he Paci ic. Asia and he Paci ic is he e o e aging apidly, bu is likely o ha e ewe
esou ces ela i e o popula ion size compa ed o Eu ope and he e o e may no be able o mee
any inc ease in ca e demand h ough paid ca e. This makes he ocus on UCW essen ial in many
coun ies in he egion.
Gi en he impo ance o ocusing on UCW in Asian and Paci ic coun ies, he i s objec i e o his
p ojec is o documen egional pa e ns o unpaid ca e. Time use su eys (TUS) p o ide he da a
necessa y o de e mine how much unpaid ca e olde people consume in uni s o ime. To es ima e
he ma ke alue o unpaid ca e consumed, his ime can be weigh ed by he impu ed eplacemen
wages ha would be ea ned i he pe son p o iding he ca e we e an “a e age” ma ke p o ide ,
al hough his pape ocuses only on he ime- alued es ima es.
The Na ional T ans e Accoun s (NTA) p ojec is an in e na ional esea ch ne wo k ha ocuses
on unde s anding he age dimension o ou economies and has con ibu ed impo an insigh s in o
he s udy o he economics o aging (Lee and Mason 2011). The NTA con ibu es o he
unde s anding o UCW h ough he de elopmen o he Na ional Time T ans e Accoun s (NTTA).
The NTA p ojec p o ides empi ical es ima es o how coun ies p oduce, consume, sa e, and
sha e ma ke -based esou ces by age, and he NTTA p oduce he same empi ical es ima es o
nonma ke -based UCW. Since UCW is adi ionally hough o as “women’s wo k,” he NTTA
es ima es a e disagg ega ed by gende so ha we can unde s and he gende dimension o he
p oduc ion and consump ion o UCW. The coun ies in Asia and he Paci ic o which hese
es ima es a e a ailable a e Bangladesh, India, Mongolia, he Republic o Ko ea (ROK), Thailand,
Tü kiye, and Vie Nam.
In he con ex o global popula ion aging, es ima es o unpaid ca e a e impo an o coun ies
seeking o unde s and wha ca e is likely o be needed in he u u e. Thus, he second objec i e
o his p ojec is o use he es ima ed pa e ns o cu en UCW o p ojec he demand and supply
o ca e o olde people in he ace o he changing age s uc u e o he popula ion. These
p ojec ions p o ide insigh in o whe he he e will be a misma ch be ween he supply o and
demand o UCW in he u u e i he age pa e ns o ca e p oduc ion and consump ion emain he
same bu he age s uc u e o he popula ion changes. This app oach, which combines es ima es
o he pe capi a pa icipa ion o people wi h ce ain cha ac e is ics in a pa icula ype o wo k wi h
popula ion p ojec ions, is o en used by policymake s who wan o unde s and he u u e labo
o ce (Toossi 2006). He e, his s anda d me hod is applied o he p ojec ion o he unpaid ca e
wo k o ce and he consume s o his wo k.
The pape ends wi h a e iew o he esul s and a discussion o he policy insigh s.
3
II. DATA AND METHODS
A. O e iew o he Na ional Time T ans e Accoun s
The Na ional Time T ans e Accoun s join in he long-s anding wo k o social scien is s who ha e
c i iqued s anda d measu es o economic ac i i y o a ious easons, one o which has been ha
hey lea e ou UCW (The Economis 2016; Wa ing 1999). Na ional accoun s (Uni ed Na ions
2009) is he sys em o c oss-coun y compa a i e es ima es o economic lows ha o ms he
basis o such well-known economic agg ega es as g oss domes ic p oduc . Since i s incep ion in
he yea s ollowing he G ea Dep ession, i has become an inc edibly in luen ial pa o he global
p ac ice o economic and inancial esea ch and moni o ing. Howe e , like any o he
measu emen sys em, i has s eng hs and weaknesses as well as buil -in assump ions. I
includes some hings in i s de ini ion o an economic low, bu excludes o he s. I includes lows
ha esul om he p oduc ion and consump ion o goods and se ices ha a e aded o money
and a e usually e e ed o as “ma ke goods and se ices.” Howe e , i is no exclusi ely ma ke -
aded goods and se ices, as he na ional accoun s also include some lows ha a e no aded
o money in ma ke s. The alue p oduced by owne -occupied housing consumed by esiden s is
included, as a e some o he ypes o inancial ansac ions and se ices ha a e no bough and
sold in ma ke s, such as co po a e “goodwill.” These lows a e no aded, so economis s and
accoun an s mus use indica o s o hese lows and make an educa ed guess as o hei alue in
he na ional accoun s (Uni ed S a es Bu eau o Economic Analysis 2008). The p oduc ion and
consump ion o goods p oduced by households o hei own use, mos ly he alue o ood g own
by a household o i s own consump ion, is ano he ype o low ha is no aded in a ma ke bu
whose alue is impu ed in o na ional accoun ing measu es o o al p oduc ion and consump ion.
Wha emains speci ically ou side he p oduc ion bounda ies o he na ional accoun s is he alue
o home-p oduced se ices.
The e a e many e ms used o his ype o p oduc ion: UCW, household p oduc ion, unpaid
household se ices, and o he s. We will use he e m “unpaid ca e wo k” he e. UCW includes he
p oduc i e ac i i y o people ha is no al eady accoun ed o in he na ional accoun s. I includes
ime spen on di ec ca e ac i i ies, such as ca ing o child en, olde people, sick o disabled
people, and ca ing o he communi y h ough olun ee ac i i ies. I also includes indi ec ca e
ac i i ies in connec ion wi h managing and main aining a household. Cooking, cleaning, laund y,
and household managemen and main enance a e all examples o indi ec ca e ac i i ies.
UCW is inc easingly ecognized as a aluable economic ac i i y. S a is ical agencies and
in e na ional measu emen and moni o ing bodies such as he In e na ional Labou O ganiza ion
and he Uni ed Na ions explici ly include i in hei wo k plans, goals, and epo s. The Uni ed
Na ions has included aspec s o UCW as poin s in i s se o Sus ainable De elopmen Goals ha
ela e o gende equali y and In e na ional Labou O ganiza ion (2018). In he wake o he ongoing
impac o he co ona i us disease (COVID-19) pandemic, new a en ion has been paid o he ole
o UCW in main aining socie ies. The closu e o schools ans e ed a massi e sec o o he paid
ca e economy om eache s o pa en s seemingly o e nigh , while he a angemen o wo king
om home mean ha household p oduc ion was no longe hidden all day om an adul wo king
ou side he home. These and o he pandemic impac s ha e gi en new impo ance o he s udy o
he ca e economy.
4
Despi e p og ess in ecognizing UCW, we a e s ill a long way om ha ing consis en , compa able
da a ac oss coun ies on UCW as we ha e o measu es such as g oss domes ic p oduc and
labo o ce pa icipa ion. In he mean ime, o his p ojec , we a e c ea ing hese measu es o
ou sel es by ollowing he long-s anding me hodology de eloped by esea che s o es ima e he
p oduc ion o UCW by using TUS o measu e how much ime people spend on his ype o
p oduc ion (Lande eld, F aumeni, and Voj ech 2009; Ab aham and Mackie 2005).
Wha he NTTA app oach con ibu es o his me hodology is a amewo k ha explici ly
acknowledges he ole o age in de e mining much o he a ia ion in UCW p oduc ion. Since
UCW is la gely de e mined by he age- ela ed p ocesses o bi h, ma iage, household o ma ion,
aging, and dea h, a ocus on he age dimension is necessa y o unde s and UCW and de elop
app op ia e policies a ound i . Much wo k on UCW has ocused on a pa icula age g oup wi h a
e y wide age ange, a he han looking a how UCW pa e ns change by age. In some coun ies,
whe e age-dependen phenomena such as ma iage occu a a pa icula age wi h li le a ia ion
ac oss indi iduals, age g oup a e ages can obscu e much o he UCW pa e ns we a e ying o
unde s and.
In addi ion o an imp o ed ocus on age, he NTTA app oach shows us he ans e o UCW
be ween indi iduals, bu no only he p oduc ion. To ge he o he side o he exchange, we can
apply he NTA amewo k (Lee and Mason 2011; Uni ed Na ions 2013), which has es ablished
me hods o impu ing he consump ion o ma ke goods and se ices o indi iduals om su ey
da a, showing he consump ion only a he household le el. Applying his me hodology o UCW
se ices e eals he same sys em o ans e s be ween indi iduals in he UCW economy ha he
NTA has e ealed in he ma ke economy—young and old people in di e en coun ies and
egions ha e di e en le els o “dependency” ela i e o he p oduc i e capaci ies o he peak
wo king age o wo ke s, and hese wo ke s p o ide o he needs o young and old dependen
people in di e en ways and wi h di e en gene a ional a angemen s.
This is a hyb id me hodology in which he es ima es o household p oduc ion sa elli e accoun s
a e combined wi h he NTA amewo k o impu e consump ion and ans e s. This hyb id
me hodology is called Na ional Time T ans e Accoun s and was de eloped by he Coun ing
Women’s Wo k p ojec (Na ional T ans e Accoun s 2017). I b ings mo e de ail o he age
dimension o UCW han p e ious esea ch and is he e o e also sui able o he s udy o UCW in
aging socie ies. In addi ion, i includes a me hodology o impu ing UCW consump ion and
ans e s ha would be much mo e di icul o obse e di ec ly.
B. P oduc ion Es ima es o he Na ional Time T ans e Accoun s
To gene a e he NTTA es ima es, we ollow he long-s anding esea ch adi ion o household
p oduc ion sa elli e accoun ing (Pan Ame ican Heal h O ganiza ion 2010). The me hodology
equi es TUS da a. Some TUS a e in he o m o ime dia ies, in which esponden s a e asked o
accoun o all o hei ac i i ies, one a e ano he , du ing a gi en ime window, usually 24 hou s
o 48 hou s. These ac i i ies a e hen coded using a comp ehensi e coding scheme. Ano he ype
o TUS da a a ailable is a comp ehensi e se o ques ions abou how much ime esponden s
spen on a ange o speci ic ac i i ies. I he ac i i ies asked abou a e su icien ly de ailed, he
ime spen on a comple e se o UCW ac i i ies can be de e mined and a comp ehensi e pic u e
o UCW can be ob ained.
11
age g oup ha spends he mos hou s on ma ke wo k and UCW. Ins ead, he age g oups o peak
wo k in ensi y di e by ype o wo k, possibly indica ing wo kload sha ing p ac ices be ween age
g oups in amilies.
Some cau ion is needed in in e p e ing hese igu es and compa ing he di e ences be ween
coun ies be o e p oceeding. One ob ious issue in in e p e a ion is ha he TUS da a a ailable
o each coun y comes om di e en yea s. Mos a e ecen and come om a ai ly concen a ed
numbe o yea s, bu India is an impo an excep ion. Fo many yea s, he 1999 su ey was he
only comp ehensi e, na ionally ep esen a i e TUS in India. Tha has ce ainly changed now,
al hough we can a leas no e ha emale labo o ce pa icipa ion in India has no inc eased since
1999, and has ac ually dec eased.
Da a om a new ime-use s udy conduc ed in 2019 was a ailable a e he ini ial publica ion o
his pape . The esul s o his mo e ecen da a a e p esen ed in he Appendix and he esul s a e
compa ed wi h hose o 1999. Consis en wi h lowe emale labo o ce pa icipa ion, we see in
hese esul s ha women do less ma ke wo k and much mo e unpaid ca e wo k in 2019
compa ed o 1999 in mos age g oups. So, he mo e ecen pic u e o India shows a g ea e
gende seg ega ion o labo , no less. New da a om 2019 has also become a ailable o
Mongolia since he ini ial publica ion. Howe e , compa ed o he 2015 esul s desc ibed he e, he
pic u e in Mongolia om 2015 o 2019 is e y simila . De ails can be ound in he Appendix.
Apa om he ac ha samples a e coming om di e en yea s o di e en coun ies, pa o he
a ia ion om igu e o igu e o di e en coun ies could be due o di e en ypes o su eys in
di e en coun ies o di e en unde s anding o he su ey ins umen in di e en cul u al se ings.
The e o e, i is a mo e eliable app oach o e alua e whe he in e nal pa e ns o di e ences wi hin
each coun y—by age, gende , ype o wo k— a y ac oss he sample o se en coun ies han o
look a he absolu e di e ences in poin es ima es o a pa icula age and/o gende g oup be ween
wo coun ies.
2. Gende Di e ences in Wo k Time by Type
As men ioned ea lie , pa o wha we wan o unde s and abou UCW is how i i s in o he
gende ed economy— he sys em o no ms, laws, p e e ences, and any o he social o poli ical
ins i u ions ha di e en ia e he pa icipa ion o men and women and gi ls and boys in economic
li e. This means ha we need o se aside no ions o he “a e age” pe son and look a he pa e ns
o men and women sepa a ely.
Figu e 2 shows he same in o ma ion as in Figu e 1, bu wi h each black line o a e age wo k by
age di ided in o a blue line o men and a ed line o women. Ma ke wo k is s ill a dashed line
and UCW is a solid line. The b eakdown o he wo k lines by gende shows ha he economies in
he se en coun ies a e e y di e en . We ha e examples such as Bangladesh, whe e men and
women a e e y simila in e ms o wo king hou s by age, bu in exac ly opposi e sec o s. This is
also he case in Tü kiye. Then he e a e coun ies like Vie Nam, whe e he gende s a e mo e
simila in e ms o hei wo king li es by age.
Figu e 3 illus a es he gende di e ences by plo ing he di e ence be ween he male and emale
lines o each ype o wo k. The di e ences a e exp essed as emale minus male es ima es. Lines
abo e ze o hus indica e ha women do mo e o his wo k han men, while lines below indica e
ha men do mo e han women.
12
The lines in Figu e 3 o UCW (solid g een) a e gene ally abo e ze o a all ages ( he e is a iny
excep ion o he oldes Vie namese indi iduals), showing he b oad pa e n o emale
specializa ion in UCW. The lines o ma ke wo k (dashed g een) a e gene ally below ze o a all
ages, indica ing male specializa ion in ma ke wo k. The solid black line is he gende di e ence
in o al wo k and is he sum o he lines o UCW and ma ke wo k.
Gende di e en ia ion is highes a ages 20–40 and lowes a he younges and oldes ages, which
is consis en wi h he li e cycle p ocess o childbea ing and child ea ing igge ing he g ea es
demand o UCW. This is a signi ican inding o keep in mind when ying o unde s and olde
people and wo k: while he magni ude o he gende di e ence in wo k is smalle in he oldes age
g oups compa ed o peak wo king age, hese olde people a e likely o ha e spen hei adul li es
in a wo ld ha was much mo e gende -seg ega ed and will he e o e s ill eel he e ec s o he
gende ed economy, e en i he ac ual di e ences in wo k a e smalle .
The gende ed economy o emale specializa ion in UCW and male specializa ion in ma ke wo k
is ema kably consis en ac oss coun ies, bu he ex en o gende di e en ia ion a ies.
Bangladesh, India, and Tü kiye show he g ea es magni ude o di e ences be ween men and
women and hus also he highes deg ee o gende -speci ic specializa ion by sec o . In Mongolia,
Thailand, and Vie Nam, he di e ences a e much smalle ; he ROK is in he middle. I we look a
he la ges gap be ween UCW and ma ke wo k as an indica o o gende seg ega ion in economic
li e, he se en coun ies in o de o g ea es o leas seg ega ion a e India, Bangladesh, Tü kiye,
he ROK, Mongolia, Thailand, and Vie Nam. Howe e , some o he la ges gende gaps in o al
wo k in Figu e 3 ( he solid black lines) a e in Mongolia and Vie Nam, sugges ing ha a lack o
gende seg ega ion is no associa ed wi h an “ad an age” o less o al wo k.
Wha Figu es 2 and 3 seem o show a e in ac h ee di e en gende sys ems o wo k. In
Bangladesh and Tü kiye, one could say ha he pic u e is symme ical bu seg ega ed: women
pe o m almos as many UCW hou s as men in he ma ke in e ms o age, and men pe o m as
many UCW hou s as women in he ma ke . The gende di e ence in o al wo k is small in
Bangladesh, wi h women doing sligh ly mo e o al wo k on a e age han men a a young age, bu
his e e ses as hey ge olde . In Tü kiye, women’s highe o al wo k pe o mance is mo e
consis en ac oss all age g oups. I may be wo h no hing ha hese wo coun ies ha e he
cha ac e is ic o being p edominan ly Muslim, wi h a his o ical legacy o cul u al p ac ices ha
a o ed gende sepa a ion o hose no li ing in he same amily.
In Mongolia and Vie Nam, we see a “second shi ” pa e n whe e ma ke wo k looks mo e gende -
equal, bu UCW is qui e unequal. These wo coun ies ha e he cha ac e is ic o communis
egimes cu en ly o his o ically ha emphasized gende equali y in ma ke labo o ce
pa icipa ion, bu did no seem o s ess he ole o wo ke equali y wi hin he household wi h he
same igo . Simila pa e ns ha e been documen ed in o me communis coun ies in Eu ope,
such as Slo enia and Hunga y (Samb e al. 2016).
Finally, in Thailand and India, we see a pa e n consis en wi h g owing economies ha a e mo e
willing o le women wo k in he ma ke place, bu s ill ha e e y adi ional ideas abou wha wo k
is app op ia e o men. Thus, in hese wo coun ies, women’s wo k li es seem o be mo e e enly
di ided be ween UCW and ma ke wo k, while men’s wo king li es a e almos comple ely
seg ega ed o ma ke wo k. The ROK also appea s o all in o his ca ego y, as women in many
age g oups spend oughly he same amoun o wo k hou s on UCW and paid ca e wo k, while
he lines o men a e highly di e en ia ed and men do e y li le UCW. I is in e es ing o ind he
13
ROK in his g oup because i is he weal hies and mos highly indus ialized o he coun ies
included and ye has gende ed economic pa e ns ha ollow mo e adi ional lines, a leas o
men.
No e ha in he upda ed images o Mongolia, he e is a g ea deal o consis ency be ween 2015
and 2019. Howe e , he 2019 image o India looks mo e like Bangladesh, while he 1999 image
o India mo e closely esembled o Thailand. See he Appendix o mo e de ails.
I is in e es ing o no e ha he e ili y a es o indi idual coun ies in he yea o he TUS a e no
ela ed o he deg ee o economic gende seg ega ion. Ce ainly India’s o al e ili y a e (TFR) o
3.38 child en pe woman in 1999 is he highes in his g oup o coun ies and is consis en wi h i s
high gende seg ega ion, bu Mongolia is he second mos e ile coun y wi h 2.64 child en pe
woman, bu has a a lowe economic gende seg ega ion han Bangladesh wi h a lowe TFR o
2.24 (India’s TFR is 2.11 in 2019). Tü kiye’s TFR o 2.07 is close o Vie Nam’s TFR o 1.96, bu
he gende seg ega ion is qui e di e en . Thailand, wi h a TFR o 1.51, has a ela i ely low e ili y
o he g oup, bu a simila gende seg ega ion o Mongolia wi h i s highe e ili y. The ROK has
he lowes e ili y o he g oup o se en a 1.20, bu he deg ee o gende di e en ia ion a wo k
is oughly compa able o Tü kiye, whose e ili y is in he middle o he g oup. (Fe ili y a es a e
om he Wo ld Bank’s Wo ld De elopmen Indica o s da abase [Wo ld Bank 2017] and he e ili y
shown is o he TUS yea o each coun y.) This sugges s ha gende di e ences a wo k a e
no biologically de e mined, as ou ole in e ili y is he mos biologically de e mined aspec o ou
li es. In o he wo ds, he gende ed economy is no d i en by biological aspec s o childbea ing
and child ea ing, o he wise i would look he same in coun ies wi h he same e ili y. While he
gene al na u e o gende specializa ion is he same in all se en coun ies—women do mo e UCW
han men and men do mo e ma ke wo k han women— he e is wide dispe sion a ound his
cen al endency, esul ing om he di e en his o y and cul u e, as well as he di e en policy
choices each coun y has made ha a ec s i ms, households, and indi iduals.
I we ocus on he li es o olde people, we ind ha olde people in all coun ies spend less ime
wo king han hose a hei peak wo king age, bu s ill do conside able amoun s o wo k. In mos
o he coun ies in his sample, he majo i y o wo k o people aged 80 and olde is o women
doing UCW. The excep ion is India, whe e we see men doing subs an ial ma ke wo k a hese
ages ( his is ue o he ea lie 1999 pic u e and is gene ally s ill he case in 2019), and in Vie
Nam he UCW o men and women in he oldes g oups is oughly equal. We also see ha he
concen a ion o wo k by sec o is shi ing away om ma ke wo k and owa d UCW o olde
people. This is ano he eminde o he impac o he in isibili y o UCW— he in isibili y o he
economic eali y o olde people. When conside ing gende di e ences in wo k in olde age, i
should be no ed ha he shi in wo king li e owa d mo e UCW is a g ea e change o mos aging
men han o mos aging women. In some con ex s, men may pe cei e his change as nega i e i
hei cul u e has s ic expec a ions o wha is accep able wo k o men.
3. Including Consump ion and T ans e s
We now include he consump ion side o he ca e economy in Figu e 4, which shows he age
pa e ns o p oduc ion, consump ion, and ne ans e s o UCW. The blue p oduc ion lines in
Figu e 4 a e he same as he lines o UCW in Figu e 1, bu we now include es ima es o who
consumes hese UCW se ices by age. (The scales o he wo igu es also di e because ne
ans e s can be nega i e, so he UCW p oduc ion lines do no look exac ly he same.) The
consump ion line is shown in g een.
14
Since we make he simpli ying assump ion ha UCW is consumed a he same momen ha i is
p oduced, he di e ence be ween he p oduc ion and consump ion lines equals he ne ans e s
o UCW, shown by he dashed pu ple line. This is a dis inguishing ea u e o he UCW economy
compa ed o he ma ke economy: in he ma ke economy, he e a e ins umen s ha ensu e ha
he ime o p oduc ion does no ha e o be he same as he ime o consump ion. We can ake ou
loans o consume oday, bu epay hem wi h he ea nings a a la e da e. We can p oduce oday
and s o e ha p oduc ion h ough physical o inancial esou ces and use hese esou ces o
consump ion a a la e da e. UCW se ices, howe e , a e gene ally consumed a he momen
hey a e p oduced—we ea he meal immedia ely a e i is cooked. Ce ainly he e a e small ime
di e ences, such as consuming a clean house a e i has been cleaned, bu gene ally he se ice
is consumed nea he ime o p oduc ion, and he e is no way o sa e o bo ow UCW excep
h ough in o mal obliga ions o ans e i o o he people.
A look a he g een consump ion lines shows ha child en a e he la ges consume s o UCW, bu
he le el o his consump ion a ies om coun y o coun y. (No e ha he g een consump ion
line con e ges wi h he pu ple ans e line a he younges age, as child en do no p oduce any
ca e hemsel es. Thei o al consump ion is a ans e om people o olde age.) Vie namese and
Ko ean in an s a e es ima ed o consume mo e han 60 hou s pe week o UCW, while
Bangladeshi in an s consume jus mo e han 20 hou s pe week. This is pa ly due o he
ma hema ics o consump ion impu a ion; he ca e wo k p oduced in a household is di ided among
he people in ha household, o he child en in ha household i childca e is in ol ed. Mo e
po en ial consume s pe household, as is he case in coun ies wi h highe e ili y and mo e young
child en, he e o e lead o smalle sha es o each pe son. So household s uc u e o e all will
ha e a signi ican impac on consump ion es ima es, bu his is no jus a i ac ual. Households
a e he main s uc u e h ough which p i a e ans e s low om ne p oduce s o ne consume s.
La ge household sizes and mo e household complexi y a e pa ly a s a egy o sha e esou ces,
no jus a ma hema ical ac .
F om he age o abou 15, he consump ion cu es la en ou in mos coun ies. In Mongolia, he
ROK, Tü kiye, and Vie Nam, UCW consump ion is sligh ly highe in he olde age g oups han in
wo king ages, bu he e a e no majo di e ences in he o he coun ies.
I is impo an o dis inguish be ween consump ion and ans e . Age g oups ha consume ca e
bu p oduce abou he same amoun will no make ne ans e s o o he age g oups. Indi iduals
in hese age g oups may ans e a la ge amoun o UCW se ices o o he s, bu i ne ans e s
a e ze o, hey may p oduce abou he same amoun o UCW ha o he s p o ide o hei
consump ion. Child en a e he only signi ican ecipien s o ne ans e s in all igu es. Ne
ans e s a e sligh ly posi i e o he oldes indi iduals in all coun ies ( he dashed pu ple lines go
om posi i e o nega i e o he oldes age g oups). This means ha he oldes people in each
coun y ecei e ne ans e s, bu he size o hese ans e s is much smalle han he ans e s o
young child en. A inal obse a ion on ans e s is ha adul s aged 20–40 a e he la ges ne
p oduce s o UCW ime, wi h hei dashed pu ple line ha ing he la ges nega i e alues.
So wha his pic u e ells us is ha child en a e much mo e cos ly in e ms o UCW ime han olde
people. This is no because olde people consume so li le ca e. In ac , hey consume abou as
much as wo king-age adul s, o a leas no much mo e. Ins ead, olde people in he UCW
economy a e so di e en om child en in he UCW economy because hey p oduce abou as
much as hey consume du ing he UCW pe iod, so ha on a e age only small ne ans e s a e
equi ed a he oldes ages. This inding does no suppo he idea ha an aging socie y is heading
15
o an impending “ca e c isis,” No does i suppo he idea ha he oldes people in hese coun ies
a e massi e use s o ca e se ices.
Howe e , hese conclusions a e e y en a i e. Such a esul should be ca e ully examined and
needs much eplica ion be o e i is accep ed as ac . O he explana ions mus be uled ou . Fo
example, i could be ha ca ing o olde people is much mo e di icul o measu e han ca ing o
child en. This could be he case i adul child en classi y ac i i ies such as elephone calls o isi s
o olde ela i es as social o leisu e ac i i ies, e en hough hey a e also ca e aking ac i i ies,
such as cleaning o doing household cho es o an olde pe son, o simply checking on hei well-
being and condi ion o he household. Ideally, we would wan o be able o include he seconda y
ca e ac i i ies associa ed wi h he p ima y ac i i y o socializing, bu many su eys do no include
his ype o da a.
Ano he impo an quali ie on hese esul s is ha hey a e a e ages o age g oups, which can
hide la ge di e ences be ween g oups wi hin he a e age. This has al eady been discussed in
ela ion o gende : he “a e age” pe son does no eally exis in a con ex whe e so much
popula ion-le el a iabili y is de e mined by he pe son’s gende . The e a e ce ainly o he
cha ac e is ics, such as he egion o u ban and/o u al s a us o he household o socioeconomic
s a us, ha can also ma k sha p di iding lines in he shape o he ca e consump ion age p o iles.
4. Gende Di e ences in T ans e s o Unpaid Ca e Wo k
In he p e ious sec ion, i seemed ha olde people la gely p o ided o hei own ca e needs, a
leas on a e age. We now wan o unde s and how his “a e age” is in luenced by he gende ed
economy. Figu e 5 shows he same line o ne ans e s as in Figu e 4, bu disagg ega ed by
gende . Wha was he dashed pu ple line o he o e all a e age in Figu e 4 is now a dashed ed
line o women and a dashed blue line o men.
As a no e o cau ion, he in e p e a ion o gende -speci ic ime ans e s in Figu e 5 mus be
quali ied based on he limi a ions o he me hodology. Recall ha ne ans e s a e he di e ence
be ween p oduc ion and consump ion. The gende di e ences in UCW p oduc ion come di ec ly
om he TUS, whe e we can obse e how people spend hei ime, and we also know hei gende
om he su ey da a. The consump ion es ima es come om di iding all housewo k p oduced in
he household equally among household esiden s o known age and gende , and om nume ical
me hods ha de elop age- and gende -speci ic weigh s o di ide di ec ca e p oduced in he
household among household esiden s. The e o e, hese es ima es a e limi ed in de ec ing UCW
when he e a e gende di e ences in ca e consump ion among indi iduals o he same age wi hin
he household. They a e also limi ed when he e a e ypes o ca e ha a e no ecognized as
“ca e” by su ey esponden s, such as he socializa ion wi h olde people men ioned abo e.
Gi en hese limi a ions, we mus in e p e he gende di e ences in ne ans e s as a “lowe
bound” on he ue di e ence in ans e s o men and women. E en wi h his limi a ion, howe e ,
we see in all coun ies ha women make ne ans e s o UCW and ha men ecei e hem. Only
in Vie Nam is he e a no able age g oup o men who make ne ans e s o UCW o o he
age/gende g oups. In mos o he coun ies shown, olde women make ne ans e s o UCW
e en o he oldes age g oup, o ne ans e s a e ze o, indica ing ha hey p oduce as much UCW
as hey consume. In India, Mongolia, and Vie Nam, he oldes women ecei e low ne ans e s.
In no coun y a e he e signi ican ne ans e s o UCW by olde men. No e ha hese gene al
16
esul s also apply o he upda ed da a om India and Mongolia, which a e included in he
Appendix.
The p e ious sugges ion ha he e may no be a ca e c isis in an aging socie y because olde
people la gely ake ca e o hei own ca e needs has he e o e changed as a esul o hese
indings: he e may no be a ca e c isis because olde women a e p o iding much o he ca e o
olde people. This is a e y impo an inding o aging socie ies. Popula ion aging is ce ainly an
indica o o many posi i e ends in educing mo ali y and he abili y o ha e as many child en as
you wan , i you choose o. Gi en he ole o olde women as a majo sou ce o UCW, ou abili y
o adjus he age s uc u e o he popula ion will succeed o ail o he ex en ha olde women
con inue o p o ide ca e and expe ience ha ca e as meaning ul and ewa ding wo k a he han
an unending and exhaus ing bu den, o ha o he age and gende g oups ake a g ea e sha e o
ca egi ing, whe he on a paid o unpaid basis. Ano he possibili y is ha olde people will need
less ca e in he u u e i hei s a e o heal h leads o mo e yea s o heal hy aging. Bu no ma e
how many o hese yea s we gain, dea h is ine i able, e en i we can pos pone i . In he ime
be o e dea h, we will p obably s ill need ca e.
Figu e 6 shows he de ails behind Figu e 5, b eaking each line in o ans e s o di ec e sus
indi ec UCW. Di ec ca e wo k is shown in he solid lines labeled as “ca e.” This consis s o he
ime spen p o iding di ec ca e o child en, adul s, o he gene al communi y. Indi ec ca e wo k
is shown in he dashed lines labeled “housewo k” and consis s o cooking, cleaning, household
main enance and managemen , and o he gene al ac i i ies. As in Figu e 5, wo k ime is shown
in blue o men and ed o women. All lines shown a e ne ans e s, i.e., he di e ence be ween
he p oduc ion and consump ion o UCW. Lines abo e ze o indica e age and gende g oups ha
a e ne ecipien s o UCW ime. Lines below ze o a e ne p oduce s. We see in his igu e ha
men a e ne ecipien s o housewo k se ices in all age g oups, including he oldes , excep o a
small age g oup in Vie Nam. Women p o ide hese ne ans e s a almos e e y age, wi h he
excep ion o he oldes women in India and Thailand and a e y small p opo ion in he ROK.
Child en ecei e he mos ne ca e, which is mainly p o ided by women aged 20–40. The la ges
o UCW ans e s a olde ages a e due o he housewo k going o olde men.
Vie Nam is he only excep ion o he gende seg ega ion pa e n, wi h men aged 20–30 p o iding
a signi ican p opo ion o ne ca e. While his esul is in iguing, i comes om a small-scale
su ey and needs o be eplica ed in a la ge sample o be conside ed a solid esul . (Vie Nam is
cu en ly planning o include a ime-use module in one o i s la ge, na ionally ep esen a i e
household su eys.)
Focusing exclusi ely on he solid lines o di ec ca e, i is an in iguing esul ha he lines o
men a e so close o ze o in all coun ies excep Vie Nam. No e en a he age o 85+ do we see
men and women on a e age equi e subs an ial ne ans e s o ca e a he popula ion a e age
le el. As men ioned ea lie , his inding aises he ques ion o how ca e is measu ed: is ou idea
o wha cons i u es “ca e” so di e en o child en han o olde people ha we canno accu a ely
measu e i wi h ou cu en ools? O a e olde people gene ally much heal hie and mo e sel -
su icien han we hink? I olde people’s need o help is mo e ocused on housewo k han di ec
ca e, hen his could mean ha i is easie o policymake s o ill any “ca e gaps” wi h ma ke -
based supplie s. I is cheape o subsidize he p o ision o housewo k han help wi h mo e in ima e
ac i i ies such as ba hing and d essing (Os e man 2017).
17
We all know s o ies om he media o om ou own li es abou olde people who need cons an
ca e om amily membe s, who manage hei daily li es, who need p o essional ca e in he e en
o a heal h c isis and who a e cons an ly assis ed in he ac i i ies o daily li ing. These s o ies a e
compelling, bu a he a e age popula ion le el, we see no e idence ha his is a pe asi e
si ua ion. Wha could be he eason o his? One se o ques ions al eady discussed is
me hodological: a e hese ac i i ies simply no coded as “ca e” by people who p o ide his ype
o ca e o olde people? This hypo hesis could be examined by compa ing he esul s o he
gene al TUS wi h hose o speci ic su eys on olde people such as he Heal h and Re i emen
Su ey om he Uni ed S a es, he China Heal h and Re i emen Su ey, o he Japanese S udy
o Aging and Re i emen .
The p oblem wi h his me hod is ha hese specialized su eys a e gene ally only a ailable in
highe -income coun ies. Fo lowe - and middle-income coun ies, one op ion is o use he same
TUS analyzed he e, bu o look closely a he ime use o household membe s who sha e a
household wi h an olde pe son. Do we see pa e ns o ime use ha may also be ca egi ing, such
as social ime spen wi h he olde pe son o ime spen using se ices ha may be in ended o
he olde pe son, bu he ime use ins umen is no de ailed enough o isola e hese codes? This
is an impo an s a ing poin o u u e esea ch.
5. Pa e ns o Di ec Ca e by Type o Ca e Recipien
Fo his nex se o esul s, he esul s o Vie Nam and Tü kiye we e no a ailable because he
mic oda a do no suppo sepa a ion be ween ypes o di ec ca e wi h he necessa y speci ici y,
so only i e coun ies a e shown. Figu e 7 is a wo-pa igu e (A. P oduc ion and B. Consump ion)
showing he a e age p oduc ion o UCW by ype in he op panel and he consump ion o UCW
by ype in he bo om panel. The esul s summa ize bo h gende s in an a e age line by age, wi h
gene al housewo k shown in black and h ee ypes o di ec ca e in he o he lines: childca e in
blue, adul ca e in ed, and communi y ca e in g een. “Communi y ca e” includes bo h olun ee ing
ac i i ies ha bene i communi y membe s in gene al and di ec ca e ac i i ies ha bene i
indi iduals, bu who a e no co- esiden household membe s and also ha e no been coded as
speci ically ca ing o child en o adul s.
Figu e 7 clea ly shows ha indi ec ca e/housewo k is he mos impo an ac i i y in UCW
p oduc ion, while childca e is less, bu s ill isible. Adul and communi y ca e, on he o he hand,
is ba ely isible on a e age. As men ioned abo e, his could be a eal inding, bu i is also likely
o be in luenced by measu emen di e ences. People may ha e a much clea e idea o childca e
as a ype o wo k, while adul ca e could also be combined wi h leisu e ac i i ies. Elde ca e is also
likely o be less equen han he daily du ies o childca e, so elde ca e measu ed in a su ey will
ha e a highe a iance han childca e. Olde people p ima ily consume and p oduce housewo k,
wi h only iny amoun s o di ec ca e consumed in he oldes age g oups in India and Mongolia.
Figu e 7 and he la ge amoun s o indi ec ca e compa ed o di ec ca e also call o mind he
po en ially la ge blind spo o his analysis, which may occu om no conside ing supe iso y
ime. Much o he ime spen on housewo k is also likely o be ime spen ca ing o child en. This
complica es he conclusions we can d aw when looking a he small amoun s o di ec ca e ime.
Figu e 8 shows he ne ans e s o di ec ca e by ype o ca e, i.e., he di e ence be ween he
consump ion and p oduc ion lines in Figu e 7, bu also adds he dimension o gende . We see in
all i e coun ies ha he size o ne ans e s o communi y ca e and adul ca e is iny compa ed
o ans e s o childca e. We also see ha women make ne ans e s o childca e well in o old
18
age, al hough he amoun o ime ans e s in hese coun ies is ce ainly smalle in olde age han
in peak childbea ing age. Ne e heless, i appea s ha g andmo he s a e likely o be an impo an
pa o childca e p o ision. In Mongolia and he ROK, men also seem o be making childca e
ans e s. Howe e , his was obscu ed when hese da a we e combined wi h indi ec ca e, which
men only p o ide o a small ex en .
B. P ojec ions o he Unpaid Ca e Wo k Economy
1. Changing Popula ions wi h Fixed Unpaid Ca e Wo k Sys em
We ha e seen in he p e ious analyses how much ime socie ies spend on UCW, as much i no
mo e han hey spend on ma ke wo k. Gi en UCW’s i al ole in c ea ing u u e human capi al
and sus aining socie y, well-being, and he ma ke labo o ce, one o he main easons o s udy
i is o de e mine whe he he supply o UCW will be su icien in he u u e. One way o begin his
s udy is o p ojec he supply and demand o UCW in o he u u e and ake hei a io o see i
he e is a misma ch. I he supply o ca e in he u u e canno mee he demand, , new sou ces o
ca e mus be ound. I he supply o ca e in he u u e exceeds demand, he e is an oppo uni y o
use ca e ime o o he hings o o p o ide mo e in ensi e ca e han we can oday. F om he
explo a ion in he p e ious sec ion, we know ha demand and supply pa e ns a e s ongly
in luenced by age and gende . So a s a ing poin o p ojec ing UCW in o he u u e is o p ojec
how ou u u e popula ions will change by age and gende , combine his p ojec ion wi h ou cu en
UCW sys em and examine how p ojec ed demand and supply compa e in his imagined u u e.
Be o e mo ing on o he demand and supply p ojec ions, we can b ie ly look a how he age
dis ibu ion o he popula ion in he se en coun ies conside ed he e is likely o change o e he
nex 50 yea s. Figu e 9 shows he age dis ibu ion o he popula ions o 2020 ( ed) and 2070
(blue), acco ding o he p ojec ions o he Uni ed Na ions Wo ld Popula ion P ospec s 2019
(Uni ed Na ions Depa men o Economic and Social A ai s 2019). Aging is o ecas o all o
hese coun ies, as shown by he c osso e in he blue and ed lines. The c osso e s all show
dec easing p opo ions in he younges age g oups ( ed lines abo e blue lines) and inc easing
p opo ions in he oldes age g oups (blue lines abo e ed lines). Fo he coun ies ha a e u he
ad anced in he aging p ocess, he c osso e is a an olde age ( he ROK, Thailand). Fo he
younges coun ies, he c osso e akes place a a younge age (Bangladesh, India, Mongolia).
As men ioned be o e, he e is some e idence o suppo he Uni ed Na ions assump ion ha
e ili y will decline o eplacemen le els in he long e m, in he Ko ean cha , which shows abou
equal sha es o newbo ns in 2020 and 2070. This is only possible i e ili y s ops i s downwa d
end in he ROK o e ecen decades and e ili y ises. I is deba able whe he his is e en
ealis ic, bu o he pu poses o his pape , i should be no ed ha his implies s abili y in he
p opo ion o young child en o e he nex 50 yea s, which is highly specula i e.
Figu e 10 shows he UCW suppo a ios you ge when di e en age- and gende -speci ic
schedules o di e en ypes o UCW p oduc ion and consump ion a e weigh ed by he p ojec ed
popula ion age dis ibu ions in Figu e 9. (While Figu e 9 shows a p ojec ion o he age dis ibu ion
o one gende , he e a e also changes in he expec ed gende a ios, bu hese a e much smalle
han he changes in he age dis ibu ion.) The a io calcula ions a e pe o med o six di e en
g oupings o UCW ypes, which a e shown in sepa a e panels o Figu e 10: all UCW combined,
gene al housewo k only, di ec ca e only, di ec ca e o child en only, di ec ca e o adul s only,
and inally communi y ca e ac i i ies. No e ha he de ailed da a on he sub ypes o di ec ca e
19
equi ed o include Vie Nam and Tü kiye in he bo om ow o he g aphs in Figu e 10 a e no
cu en ly a ailable. All a ios a e scaled o 1.0 in 2020 o be e emphasize he ela i e change
o e ime compa ed o he s a ing pe iod.
A look a each o he six panels shows ha di e en ypes o ca e p oduc ion o consump ion a o
ce ain age g oups and ha hese g oups g ow a di e en a es in he p ojec ed popula ion. Recall
ha he pe capi a age/gende ca e schedules in hese calcula ions emain ixed o he cu en
“snapsho ” es ima ed o each coun y in he mos ecen yea in which da a we e a ailable o
calcula e he NTTA es ima es. Figu e 10 is he e o e a hough expe imen : wha i he ca e
economy emained unchanged in e ms o a e age p oduc ion and consump ion by age and
gende , bu he numbe o people in hese ca ego ies changed? The a io o p oduc ion o
consump ion is a suppo a io. An inc ease in he a io indica es ha a gi en le el o consump ion
is easie o mee because mo e uni s o supply a e a ailable ela i e o demand. A dec ease
means ha cu en pe capi a consump ion pa e ns a e no sus ainable.
The o e all UCW suppo a io in Figu e 10a is ela i ely s able o e ime in all coun ies, as shown
by he ela i ely la ends o all lines. Mos coun ies show a sligh inc ease, wi h he ROK being
he only coun y o show an o e all dec ease. This o e all UCW s abili y is achie ed by he la o
sligh ly dec easing housewo k (indi ec ca e) suppo a ios in Figu e 10b combined wi h an
inc ease in a es o di ec ca e suppo in Figu e 10c. The a e age leans mo e owa d he end
o indi ec ca e, as he majo i y o UCW ime is indi ec . The inc easing suppo a ios o di ec
ca e means ha i becomes easie o p o ide he necessa y ca e o e ime. A compa ison o he
h ee pa s o di ec ca e in he h ee panels in he second ow o Figu e 10 shows us why. Figu e
10d shows ha in mos coun ies he e is mo e ca e a ailable han is demanded by child en, as
child en a e e y expensi e in e ms o UCW and he aging popula ion has ela i ely ewe
child en o e ime. The ROK is he no able excep ion he e, bu his is due o he assump ion buil
in o he popula ion p ojec ion o an inc ease in e ili y owa d eplacemen le els compa ed o he
cu en e y low le els. Figu e 10e shows ha o e ime i will become mo e di icul o p o ide
he necessa y ca e o adul s, as he a e age age o adul ca e ecipien s is signi ican ly olde
han ha o adul ca e p oduce s. Howe e , because ne ans e s o UCW o adul s a e so much
lowe han o child en, he o e all UCW suppo a io emains la gely una ec ed. Finally, we see
in Figu e 10 ha he suppo a ios o communi y ca e a e ai ly la . This is because bo h he
consump ion and p oduc ion o his ype o ca e a e sha ed ac oss many di e en age g oups, so
he change in age dis ibu ion is no such a ac o .
Wha is o be made o his esul ? O e all, i does no look as i he changing popula ion age
s uc u e is pu ing a s ain on he ca e sys em, bu his is only he case i childca e and ca e o
olde people and adul s can be subs i u ed o each o he . In o he wo ds, di ec ca e suppo
a ios a e only la because he ime p ojec ed o be “ eed up” by inc easing he childca e suppo
a io is g ea e han he addi ional ime adul s and olde people will need in 2070, which canno
be supplied i he ca e economy emains as i was in 2020.
This ype o calcula ion, which combines childca e wi h o he ypes o ca e, makes he implici
assump ion ha all di ec ca e is ungible o all ca e ecipien s. This is a s ong assump ion. NTTA
es ima es ha e shown ha women in hei peak child- ea ing age a e he main supplie s o ca e
o young child en. Will he young women o u u e gene a ions be willing o shi hei ca e supply
om he young child en hey “did no ha e” o he olde pa en s hey do ha e? These young
women will ce ainly ha e mo e educa ion han p e ious gene a ions o women, wi h smalle gaps
20
compa ed o hei male pee s. They will also likely ha e mo e simila ca ee goals han hei male
pee s, which could mean highe emale labo o ce pa icipa ion and less ime spen on ca egi ing.
This is an achie emen ha should be celeb a ed because i ep esen s he g ea e o s o many
coun ies, amilies, and indi iduals in educa ing gi ls and women and should ce ainly no be seen
as some hing o a emp o e e se in e ms o policy. Howe e , i does mean ha he UCW labo
supply o women, long aken o g an ed, should no be. While he e does no appea o be an
o e all misma ch be ween demand and supply, policymake s and hose conce ned wi h he well-
being o olde people would do well o keep an eye on he da a on ca egi ing o olde people.
New supplie s o ca e may be needed, be hey men who would ake on a g ea e ole in UCW o
paid ca egi e s.
2. The Unpaid Ca e Wo k Sys em o he Fu u e unde “Quan i y–Quali y T ade-o ”
The p e ious sec ion deal wi h a hough expe imen in which he UCW economy emains
unchanged and only he popula ion changes. We now u n o a scena io in which he UCW
economy could change along wi h popula ion change. Wha i e ili y declines and ins ead o
shi ing hei childca e o o he ypes o ca e, pa en s main ain he same le el o ca e bu spend
mo e ime wi h each child? This dynamic is ela ed o a heo y o e ili y beha io called he
“quan i y–quali y” ade-o , in which pa en s choose be ween child quan i y, in which mo e
child en a e mo e expensi e, and child quali y, in which mo e e o is gi en o each child, which
also makes hem mo e expensi e. In some cases, pa en s may choose o inc ease child quali y,
which means hey ha e o spend mo e on each child. They hen also choose o ha e ewe
child en because he e is a budge cons ain ha limi s how much quan i y and quali y a
household can a o d (Becke 1993). We ha e empi ical e idence ha his dynamic occu s bo h
o ma ke goods and se ices and o e ime when we compa e coun ies c oss-sec ionally
(Va gha and Donehowe 2019). When compa ing coun ies, we ind ha spending on ma ke
goods and se ices and on UCW ime o all child en in a household oge he is on a e age abou
he same, ela i e o he income le el o he espec i e coun y. This means ha pa en s in
coun ies wi h ewe child en spend mo e on each child.
How can we model his kind o dynamic in he o m o unpaid ca e suppo a ios? We keep he
p ojec ed p oduc ion o di ec childca e p oduced by each ca egi e cons an , bu allow he
p ojec ed consump ion o di ec childca e o change so ha he agg ega e childca e p oduced
equals he agg ega e childca e consumed. In his scena io, he agg ega e consump ion and
p oduc ion o childca e a e he e o e always he same a he beginning o he p ojec ion pe iod,
bu he endowmen pe child changes.
Figu e 11 shows he esul s o his scena io, he hough expe imen o popula ion aging ha
allows g ea e pe capi a in es men in child en wi hou inc easing he o e all demand o o
supply o unpaid childca e. This scena io implies ha he UCW suppo a io o childca e always
emains cons an . Thus, i we scale he suppo a ios o 1.0 in 2020, we see in Figu e 11d a
ho izon al line a 1.0 h oughou he p ojec ion pe iod. In his scena io, popula ion aging does no
help o educe he p essu e on he ca e economy by eeing up ime in less childca e. The e o e,
he g ea e misma ch be ween he demand and supply o elde ca e o e ime as shown in Figu e
11e has a g ea e impac on he o e all di ec ca e suppo a io in Figu e 11c. Howe e , as can
be seen, di ec ca e is s ill a much smalle pa o he o e all UCW economy han indi ec gene al
housewo k ac i i ies. Thus, we s ill ha e he o e all e ec on he p ojec ed UCW economy in
Figu e 11a ha does no seem o be an impending c isis o coming ime c unch in he o e all
27
Figu e 3: Gende Di e ences in A e age Time Spen Wo king a Each Age by Type o
Wo k (hou s pe week o emales minus males)
No es: Values abo e ze o indica e g ea e ime spen by women, below ze o g ea e ime spen by
men. Time use su ey sou ce de ails a e in he Appendix.
Sou ce: Au ho ’s calcula ions based on Coun ing Women’s Wo k online da abase.
www.coun ingwomenswo k.o g.
28
Figu e 4: Age P o iles o P oduc ion, Consump ion, and T ans e s o Unpaid Ca e Wo k
(a e age hou s pe week)
No es: Fo ime ans e s, alues abo e ze o indica e ha he age g oup ecei es ne ans e s, below
ze o ha hey make ne ans e s o o he age g oups. Time use su ey sou ce de ails a e in he
Appendix.
Sou ce: Au ho ’s calcula ions based on Coun ing Women’s Wo k online da abase.
www.coun ingwomenswo k.o g.
29
Figu e 5: Age P o iles o Ne T ans e s o Unpaid Ca e Wo k by Gende (a e age hou s
pe week)
No es: Values abo e ze o indica e ha he age/gende g oup ecei es ne ans e s, below ze o ha hey
make ne ans e s o o he age g oups. Time use su ey sou ce de ails a e in he Appendix.
Sou ce: Au ho ’s calcula ions based on Coun ing Women’s Wo k online da abase.
www.coun ingwomenswo k.o g.
30
Figu e 6: Age P o iles o Ne T ans e s o Unpaid Ca e Wo k by Type and Gende
(a e age hou s pe week)
No es: Values abo e ze o indica e ha he age/gende g oup ecei es ne ans e s, below ze o ha hey
make ne ans e s o o he age g oups. Dashed lines a e o gene al housewo k ac i i ies, solid lines o
di ec ca e o people. Time use su ey sou ce de ails a e in he Appendix.
Sou ce: Au ho ’s calcula ions based on Coun ing Women’s Wo k online da abase.
www.coun ingwomenswo k.o g.
31
Figu e 7: Age P o iles o P oduc ion and Consump ion o Unpaid Ca e Wo k by Type
(a e age hou s pe week)
A. P oduc ion
B. Consump ion
No es: Indi ec ca e (housewo k) is shown in black, while di ec ca e is di ided in o h ee ypes by he
ype o ca e ecipien (childca e in blue, adul ca e in ed, communi y ca e in g een). Time use su ey
sou ce de ails a e in he Appendix.
Sou ce: Au ho ’s calcula ions based on Coun ing Women’s Wo k online da abase.
www.coun ingwomenswo k.o g.
32
Figu e 8: Age P o iles o Ne Di ec Ca e T ans e s by Gende and Type o Ca e
Recipien
No e: Time use su ey sou ce de ails a e in he Appendix. Values abo e ze o indica e ha he
age/gende g oup ecei es ne ans e s, below ze o ha hey make ne ans e s o o he age g oups.
Sou ce: Au ho ’s calcula ions based on Coun ing Women’s Wo k online da abase.
www.coun ingwomenswo k.o g.
33
Figu e 9: Popula ion Age Dis ibu ions, 2020 and 2070
Sou ce: Au ho ’s calcula ions om Uni ed Na ions Wo ld Popula ion P ospec s (Uni ed
Na ions 2019).
34
Figu e 10: Unpaid Ca e Wo k Suppo Ra ios by Coun y and Type o Unpaid Ca e Wo k
No e: Ra ios a e p ojec ed uni s o unpaid ca e wo k p oduc ion pe uni o unpaid ca e wo k consump ion.
Sou ce: Au ho ’s calcula ions.
35
Figu e 11: Unpaid Ca e Wo k Suppo Ra ios by Coun y and Type o Unpaid Ca e Wo k
No e: Ra ios a e p ojec ed uni s o unpaid ca e wo k p oduc ion pe uni unpaid ca e wo k consump ion,
allowing pe capi a childca e consump ion o shi so ha i ma ches agg ega e childca e p oduc ion. Y-
axis anges a e di e en han Figu e 10.
Sou ce: Au ho ’s calcula ions.
36
Figu e 12: A e age Consump ion o Unpaid Childca e, Aged 0–18
No e: Impu ed childca e consump ion i pe capi a childca e consump ion shi s so ha i ma ches
cu en agg ega e childca e p oduc ion.
Sou ce: Au ho ’s calcula ions.
