Moiz, Muhammad; Ile i, Se i e Genc
A icle
The ela ionship be ween i m o ma ion and
unemploymen : E idence om Tü kiye
Economies
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
MDPI – Mul idisciplina y Digi al Publishing Ins i u e, Basel
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Moiz, Muhammad; Ile i, Se i e Genc (2025) : The ela ionship be ween i m
o ma ion and unemploymen : E idence om Tü kiye, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099, MDPI, Basel,
Vol. 13, Iss. 2, pp. 1-22,
h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13020028
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/329308
S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen:
Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen
Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den.
Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle
Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich
machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen.
So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen
(insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en,
gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do
genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e.
Te ms o use:
Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal
and schola ly pu poses.
You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o
exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he
in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public.
I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en
Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise
u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence.
h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/
Recei ed: 6 Ma ch 2024
Re ised: 3 Ap il 2024
Accep ed: 3 Ap il 2024
Published: 26 Janua y 2025
Ci a ion: Moiz, M., & Ile i, ¸S. G.
(2025). The Rela ionship Be ween
Fi m Fo ma ion and Unemploymen :
E idence om Tü kiye. Economies,
13(2), 28. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/
economies13020028
Copy igh : © 2025 by he au ho s.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land.
This a icle is an open access a icle
dis ibu ed unde he e ms and
condi ions o he C ea i e Commons
A ibu ion (CC BY) license
(h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/
licenses/by/4.0/).
A icle
The Rela ionship Be ween Fi m Fo ma ion and Unemploymen :
E idence om Tü kiye
Muhammad Moiz 1,* and ¸Se i e Genç Ile i 2
1Depa men o Economics, Ibn Haldun Uni e si y, Ba¸sak¸sehi 34480, Is anbul, Tü kiye
2Depa men o Economics, Facul y o Managemen , Is anbul Technical Uni e si y, Macka 34367, Is anbul,
Tü kiye; [email p o ec ed]
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : This pape aims o explo e he ela ionship be ween i m o ma ion and
unemploymen using egional and ci y-le el Tu kish da a. We ocus on he pos -2008
inancial c isis pe iod and analyze he e ec s o unemploymen and o he con ol a iables
on i m o ma ion a NUTS-II and NUTS-III egions o Tü kiye. We es ima e a ixed-e ec s
panel da a model and con ol o GDP pe capi a, u baniza ion, popula ion densi y, pa en s,
high school educa ion, and highe educa ion. Ou esul s sugges ha he e is a signi ican
posi i e e ec o unemploymen on new i m o ma ion. The analysis conce ning he
con e se ela ion, he impac o i m o ma ion on unemploymen , e eals no signi ican
esul s a he NUTS-II le el; howe e , a signi ican nega i e ela ionship is ound a he ci y
le el wi h 4- and 5-yea lags.
Keywo ds: unemploymen ; i m o ma ion; Schumpe e e ec ; e ugee e ec ; egional
analysis
1. In oduc ion
Businesses a e a la ge pa o he economy, especially small- and medium-sized
es ablishmen s ha accoun o he high numbe o employees and GDP. Acco ding o
he Wo ld Bank, SMEs comp ise abou 90% o all businesses a ound he globe and o e
50% o he employmen (Wo ld Bank,2019). This igu e is e en g ea e o de eloping
economies; o example, in he case o Tü kiye, 99.8% o all egis e ed businesses a e SMEs
(TOBB,2020). Labo ma ke dynamics and i m o ma ion mo e oge he , gi en hei close
ela ion whe he i be unemploymen leading o i m o ma ion o i m o ma ion leading
o employmen and economic g ow h.
The ela ionship be ween unemploymen and sel -employmen is well-documen ed
in he li e a u e, wi h mixed esul s. Likewise, he in e se ela ionship, ha is, he e ec s
o i m o ma ion on he unemploymen a es wi hin a egion, has also been he subjec
o se e al s udies. While nume ous s udies p o ide e idence o a posi i e e ec o i m
o ma ion on unemploymen , o he s udies ind hese e ec s o be e y limi ed and e en
non-signi ican .
Unemploymen can lead o an inc ease in i m o ma ion, named in he li e a u e as
unemploymen push, e ugee, o despe a ion e ec (Thu ik e al.,2008). This is de i ed om he
heo y o income choice, which simply s a es ha unemployed indi iduals mo e owa ds
sel -employmen as he oppo uni y cos s o i m o ma ion dec ease (Blau,1987;E ans &
Leigh on,1990;Blanch lowe & Meye ,1994). In addi ion, sala ied posi ions may dec ease
as a esul o unemploymen , hence indi iduals a e pushed in o sel -employmen in o de
o su i e.
Economies 2025,13, 28 h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13020028
Economies 2025,13, 28 2 o 22
On he o he hand, unemploymen can also lead o a lowe deg ee o i m o ma ion.
The unemployed may no ha e high enough human capi al o sus ain a i m, and/o
hey may no ha e he endowmen s necessa y o es ablish hei own business. Pe sonal
weal h is ano he de e minan o sel -employmen , whe e unemploymen may indica e a
dec easing le el o weal h and he e o e lowe sel -employmen (Johansson,2000;Hu s
& Lusa di,2004; an S el & Suddle,2008). Likewise, in he case o people who do no
ha e colla e al, i would be ex emely di icul o hem o ob ain loans om a inancial
ins i u ion. The possession o colla e al can play an impo an ole in secu ing a loan in
pu suing sel -employmen o unemployed indi iduals mi iga ing he nega i e impac s o
unemploymen on new i m o ma ion.
The opposi e ela ionship also exis s, whe eby en ep eneu ship can a ec unemploymen
le els. Fi m o ma ion has a posi i e e ec on he economic g ow h and pe o mance o a
egion, which is e e ed o as he ‘Schumpe e e ec ’ in he li e a u e (Van S el e al.,2007).
New i ms hi e employees, which in u n leads o a dec ease in unemploymen (Pico e al.,
1998;Aud e sch & Thu ik,2001). Howe e , his may no be immedia e since new i ms
will hi e employees when hei pe o mance and ma ke demand inc ease; he e o e, an
expansion o hei ope a ions will lead o new hi es. This e ec may be obse ed in he
yea s ollowing he es ablishmen o new i ms; hence, i would be mo e p onounced in he
medium e m.
The objec i e o his pape is o shed ligh on he bila e al ela ionship be ween
unemploymen and i m o ma ion using egional and ci y-le el da a o Tü kiye. Tü kiye
is an in e es ing de eloping coun y case o e ing he po en ial o unpack he impo an link
be ween new i m o ma ion and unemploymen om a de eloping coun y pe spec i e.
Labo ma ke dynamics and new i m o ma ion ha e been a he cen e o jus a hand ul o
s udies o he coun y, whe e many o hem ha e used ime se ies da a a a na ional scale.
Gi en he di e ences in he ci ies and egions o Tü kiye, a mo e disagg ega ed le el s udy
has he po en ial o un eil a ela ionship based on be e ounda ions.
Mixed e idence exis s o bo h he Schumpe e e ec and e ugee e ec in he i m
o ma ion and unemploymen li e a u e. This s udy con ibu es o he li e a u e in se e al
ways. Fi s , i p o ides an in-dep h analysis o he ela ionship be ween i m o ma ion
and unemploymen on wo di e en egional le els. Second, he esul s p o ide insigh
in o he lagged e ec s o i m o ma ion and unemploymen , showing how he ela ionship
may de elop on a medium- and long- e m basis. The s udy dis inguishes i sel om he
p e ious li e a u e on Tü kiye by u ilizing a panel da ase ha co e s 81 Tu kish ci ies and
26 s-le el egions o e 10 yea s (2009 o 2019). Finally, i adds o he li e a u e by analyzing
an eme ging economy case. Mos o he li e a u e s udying his opic ocuses on de eloped
economies, while mo e a en ion has been u ning o de eloping economies in ecen yea s.
Tü kiye p esen s a unique case in ha i is a de eloping economy ha has g own quickly
since he 2000s and con inues i s economic g ow h wi h a young popula ion. This s udy
ex ends he li e a u e on i m o ma ion and unemploymen in he con ex o a de eloping
coun y. The analyses shed ligh on bo h he Schumpe e and e ugee e ec , a he egional
(NUTS-II) le el and ci y (NUTS-III) le el. The s udy also adds o he li e a u e by using
con ol a iables ha ac as de e minan s o bo h i m o ma ion and unemploymen .
To ha end, we es ima e a ixed-e ec s panel da a model, and ou esul s show ha
a he egional le el, he e is signi ican e idence o an unemploymen push hypo hesis
complemen ing p e ious s udies ha p o ide e idence o a simila e ec . Ou ci y-le el
analysis ein o ces ou egion-le el indings on he unemploymen push hypo hesis.
Mo eo e , we ind a signi ican Schumpe e ian e ec a he ci y le el, wi h 48- and 60-mon h
lags, implying ha new i m o ma ion has he po en ial o educe unemploymen in he
medium o long un.
Economies 2025,13, 28 3 o 22
The s uc u e o ou pape is as ollows. In Sec ion 2, we summa ize he li e a u e on
new i m o ma ion and unemploymen /employmen c ea ion. Sec ion 3summa izes ou
me hodology and da a; Sec ion 4p esen s ou esul s. In Sec ion 5, we discuss ou esul s
and conclude he pape in Sec ion 6.
2. The Li e a u e on New Fi m Fo ma ion and Unemploymen /
Employmen C ea ion
Nume ous s udies in es iga e he impac o unemploymen on en ep eneu ial ac i i y.
Wosiek (2023) analyzes his o a ious sec o s in Poland. The esul s o his s udy show
ha an inc ease in unemploymen leads o new i m o ma ion. A simila esul , ha is,
unemploymen a e leading o highe sel -employmen , is ob ained o C oa ia (Payne &
Me a ,2017), F ance (Aub y e al.,2015), Romania (G igo escu e al.,2020), and he US
(Cole,2018). Likewise, da Fonseca (2022) shows ha al hough unemployed indi iduals a e
wice as likely o s a a business, hey ha e a lowe p obabili y o making hi es and a highe
p obabili y o exi ing. Besides empi ical indings on he posi i e impac s o unemploymen
on i m o ma ion, some s udies p o ide e idence o he e e se e ec . Conside ing he
posi i e impac o weal h and possession o colla e al, some s udies show ha he lack o
hese among he unemployed leads o a nega i e ela ionship be ween unemploymen and
i m o ma ion (Johansson,2000;Hu s & Lusa di,2004; an S el & Suddle,2008). Home
owne ship was ound o ha e a posi i e e ec on sel -employmen as i se es as a p oxy
o weal h (Ri silä & Te o,2002). In addi ion, unemploymen may educe sel -employmen
due o o he ac o s such as s agnan economic g ow h (Aud e sch,1995,2002). A slowing
down o he economy would de e new en an s in he ma ke because o a educ ion
in he demand o p oduc s and se ices. Mo eo e , he p obabili y o e enue s eams
dec easing in he nea u u e, u he discou aging new en an s who will be aced wi h
lowe e enues and highe chances o ailu e.
The li e a u e also examines he opposi e ela ionship, whe e new i m o ma ion can
a ec unemploymen le els. Many s udies show he exis ence o his posi i e e ec o i m
o ma ion on employmen le els (nega i e e ec on unemploymen ), namely he “Schumpe e
e ec ”. Van S el e al. (2007) use Japanese da a and ind ha he Schumpe e e ec , whe e
en ep eneu ship lowe s unemploymen , akes an 8-yea lag o come in o e ec . F i sch and
Muelle (2004) ind he same in he case o Ge many, whe ein hey obse e ha new business
o ma ion has a posi i e e ec on employmen a e he i s i e yea s (du ing which he
ela ionship is nega i e). They show ha a Schumpe e e ec exis s wi h a lag o 6 o 9 yea s,
and he bigges impac occu s wi h a 7- and 8-yea lag. Thu ik e al. (2008) e e o his as
he ‘En ep eneu ial’ e ec and es i o 23 OECD coun ies. They also p o ide e idence o
a lagged nega i e ela ionship be ween sel -employmen and unemploymen , whe e a 1%
inc ease in sel -employmen leads o a 1.12% dec ease in unemploymen 8 yea s la e .
Job c ea ion is ano he impo an aspec o i m o ma ion and has been a subjec o
s udy in he li e a u e. The e is mixed e idence on whe he i m o ma ion leads o job
c ea ion. Van S el and S o ey (2004) ind ha in G ea B i ain, i m o ma ion is associa ed
wi h employmen g ow h; howe e , a he same ime, hey ind ha is no he case in Sco land.
Policy and implemen a ion a e an impo an aspec o how i m o ma ion may a ec he
labo ma ke . Simila ly, Ashc o and Lo e (1996) also ound he e o be a posi i e ela ionship
be ween new i m o ma ion and ne employmen . Regional employmen inc eases as a
esul o sel -employmen a es, which has been ound o be he case o Sweden (Foels e ,
2000) and Ge many (G o z & B ixy,2002). Using Po uguese da a, Bap is a e al. (2008) ind
ha he e is a lagged posi i e e ec o i m o ma ion on employmen and he indi ec e ec s
(g ea e compe i ion, e iciency, inno a ion) a e g ea e han di ec e ec s.
Economies 2025,13, 28 4 o 22
In addi ion o he imp o emen s in he labo ma ke , en ep eneu ial ac i i y leads o
imp o ed economic g ow h (Acs & A ming on,2004;Van S el e al.,2005). Fu he mo e,
new i ms may in oduce new p oduc s o p ocesses in he ma ke ha appeal o he
changing demands o he cus ome s. New and imp o ed p ocesses may also lead o mo e
e icien p oduc ion. As a esul , o he i ms in he ma ke a e also o ced o adap o he
changing en i onmen , imp o ing he compe i ion in hei espec i e indus y. The e ec s
o en ep eneu ial ac i i y may a y wi h he de elopmen le el o an economy. Van S el
e al. (2005) ind his ype o ac i i y o be mo e e ec i e o highly de eloped economies.
Likewise, Thu ik e al. (2008) ind he ‘En ep eneu ial’ e ec o be highe in mo e de eloped
na ions. Inducing high-g ow h en ep eneu ship would lead o highe bene i s o he
espec i e indus y and economic g ow h. In his ega d, he le el o inno a ion h ough
he numbe o pa en s issued may p o ide some insigh s in o he e ec i eness o inno a ion.
I is p edic ed ha highe inno a ion (pa en s) would lead o mo e en ep eneu ial ac i i y
( o ma ion o new i ms).
Recen s udies in he ield ha e s udied he a o emen ioned e ec s ha link new i m
es ablishmen and unemploymen a a egional le el. Economic pe o mance may be a
signi ican de e minan in he di ec ion o his ela ionship as ound by O’Lea y (2022) o
di e en Eu opean egions. Thei esul s highligh ha highe -pe o ming egions show
a mo e posi i e ela ionship, whe eas he in e se is shown in lowe -pe o ming egions.
Ca ee and Deja din (2020) ind an unemploymen push e ec in hei s udy o di e en
egions wi hin Belgium; his is especially he case in indus ies wi h low en y ba ie s.
Indi iduals may be mo e willing o mo e owa ds i m o ma ion due o he pe cei ed
low s a up capi al ha accompanies indus ies wi h low en y ba ie s. The esul s o
Wosiek (2023) also p o ide suppo o a posi i e ela ionship whe eby unemploymen
esul s in en e p ise bi hs wi hin he se ice sec o in he case o di e en Eu opean
coun ies. The unemploymen push hypo hesis is also con i med in he case o Ko ea,
whe e highe unemploymen is obse ed o lead o an inc ease in s a ups, pa icula ly o
small businesses (Sung & Kim,2020). A common pa e n ound ac oss hese s udies is he
highe numbe o s a ups in he se ice sec o , pa icula ly hose businesses ha ha e low
en y ba ie s. Ano he s udy by Pisá-Bó e al. (2021) in es iga es he impac o spa ial and
empo al a ia ions in Spain along some economic indica o s including unemploymen
on en ep eneu ship. They di ide he sample in o h ee subpe iods con aining c isis and
non-c isis yea s and ind ha unemploymen is an impo an d i e o en ep eneu ial
ac i i y du ing c isis yea s. Goschin e al. (2021) conduc ed a simila s udy in Romania. The
esul s om hei dynamic spa ial panel model e eal ha economic c ises a e impo an
d i e s o new i m o ma ion. They also ound ha in he long un, highe unemploymen
esul s in mo e new i m es ablishmen s h ough he “push e ec ”. Edobo and Ma shall
(2021) analyzed a simila case using MSA-le el da a o he US. Thei ul ima e goal is o
measu e he impac o disas e s on new i m o ma ion. Thei esul s sugges no signi ican
impac o hese nega i e e en s on new i m o ma ion, bu hey epo a signi ican nega i e
impac o unemploymen on he es ablishmen o new i ms.
These s udies ha e ocused on de eloped economies, whe eas s udies on de eloping
economies s ill lag and p esen an oppo uni y o en ich his li e a u e. Fo he case o
Tü kiye, he s and o he li e a u e on egional dynamics o i m o ma ion can be aced
back o ea ly s udies by Kaya and Ucdog uk (2002) whe e hey analyze he dynamics o
en y and exi in he Tu kish manu ac u ing indus y. Gaygisiz and Koksal (2003) s udy
i m o ma ion using bo h a c oss-sec ion and panel da a app oach o he manu ac u ing
indus y whe e hey ind ha popula ion densi y is an impo an indica o o i m o ma ion,
and Günalp and Cilasun (2006) un old an impo an ole o he eal in e es a e in i m
o ma ion in he manu ac u ing sec o .
Economies 2025,13, 28 5 o 22
Only a ew s udies ha e shed a spo ligh on he ela ionship be ween new i m
o ma ion and unemploymen in Tü kiye. Ka ahasan (2015) inds ha an eas –wes duali y
exis s whe e he wes e n egions a e seen o be mo e de eloped compa ed o hei eas e n
coun e pa s. This co ela es wi h he unequal dis ibu ion o new i m sha es ac oss
Tü kiye, ollowing he same pa e n as he economic pe o mance and en i onmen in
hose egions. In addi ion, i may be co ela ed wi h he business cycles, whe e a highe
amoun o i m o ma ion is obse ed du ing expansions and ela i ely lowe le els o i m
o ma ion du ing con ac ions. Un eiling hese ela ionships can assis policymake s in
de ising ci y-le el and egional economic and de elopmen policies ha may imp o e he
condi ions o he labo ma ke and u he lead o economic de elopmen .
Kum and Ka acao˘glu (2012) o e ano he s udy on Tü kiye which inds ha an
inc ease in unemploymen leads o a dec ease in sel -employmen in he coun y. They
no e ha a lack o en ep eneu ial knowledge and suppo om he go e nmen may be
hinde ing he chances o en ep eneu ship in he coun y. In addi ion, people may be isk
a e se and op o keep hei sa ings in banks whe e hey can bene i om he in e es
e u ns ins ead o aking highe isks h ough in es men . Öze kek and Do˘g uel (2015)
poin o an in e se ela ionship, whe e changes in he sel -employmen a e ha e a nega i e
e ec on unemploymen in subsequen pe iods. Simila ly, Apaydin (2018) also ound he
same ela ionship using he ARDL model in Tü kiye, whe e a one pe cen inc ease in
sel -employmen leads o a wo pe cen dec ease in unemploymen . Demi dag and E aydin
(2021) ecen ly s udied go e nmen policies as a de e minan o en ep eneu ship in he
coun y. Thei indings show ha go e nmen policies lead o highe en ep eneu ship
a es in egions whe e he e is exis ing high s a up ac i i y bu no in hose egions wi h
low en ep eneu ship a es. This highligh s he impo ance o egional de elopmen in
de e mining he e ec s o go e nmen policies when i comes o i m o ma ion.
Regional dispa i ies a e no ed in Ka ahasan (2015), which documen s he di e ences
be ween he eas e n and wes e n pa s o Tü kiye. The s udy indica es ha i m o ma ion
in he se ice indus y is inc easing in a ious egions o no h, cen al, and sou heas e n
Tü kiye wi h a d as ic all in i m o ma ion in manu ac u ing and ade; howe e , ha
does no dis up he eas –wes duali y, and he eas e n egion con inues o lag behind.
These egional dispa i ies in new i m es ablishmen a e explained by egional di e ences
in a ious ac o s, such as local demand, p o incial business cycles, human capi al
de elopmen , and inancial a ailabili ies. Knowledge o hese ela ionships can assis
policymake s in de ising ci y-le el and egional economic and de elopmen policies ha
may imp o e he condi ions o he labo ma ke and u he lead o economic de elopmen .
3. Me hodology and Da a
3.1. Da a
This s udy used se e al sou ces o da a. The da a used a e om he 2009–2019
pe iod. The Tu kish S a is ical Ins i u e (TUIK) p o ides a wide a ie y o da a on
ci y-le el as well as economic egion (NUTS-III and NUTS-II, espec i ely) le els. Fo
i m es ablishmen da a, ou sou ce is he Union o Chambe s and Commodi y Exchanges
o Tü kiye (TOBB). TOBB p o ides de ailed NUTS-III (ci y-le el) and NUTS-II ( egional)
da a on he es ablishmen and closu e o i ms ac oss Tü kiye. The da a used in his s udy
a e collec ed on an annual basis, p o iding 260 obse a ions o he 10-yea pe iod on
he NUTS-II egional le el. A lis o all he a iables can be ound in Table 1and hei
desc ip i e s a is ics in Table 2.
Economies 2025,13, 28 6 o 22
Table 1. Lis o a iables.
Va iable No a ion De ini ion Sou ces Pe iod
Dependen Va iable
Ne Fi m
Fo ma ion Fi mRa e New Ne Fi ms Fo med pe 1000 Labo Fo ce TOBB 2010–2019
Fi m En an s En Ra e New Fi ms Es ablished pe 1000 Labo Fo ce TOBB 2010–2019
Fi m Exi s Exi Ra e Fi ms Exi ed pe 1000 Labo Fo ce TOBB 2010–2019
Independen Va iables
Unemploymen Unemploy Unemploymen Ra e (% o Labo Fo ce) TUIK 2009–2019
Labo Fo ce LF Labo Fo ce (Age 15 and up) TUIK 2009–2019
GDP Pe Capi a GDPCapi a GDP pe Capi a (TL, cons an 2009) TUIK 2009–2019
Pa en s Pa en App o ed Pa en s by numbe s pe 1000 Labo Fo ce TPMK 2009–2019
Popula ion PopDen Popula ion Densi y (# o inhabi an s pe sq. km) TUIK 2009–2019
U baniza ion U ban Popula ion li ing in U ban a eas wi hin ci y limi s TUIK 2009–2019
Ne Mig a ion
Ra e Ne Mig Ne Mig a ion be ween egions (# o inhabi an s
en e ed minus # o inhabi an s exi ed) TUIK 2009–2019
High School
Educa ion HSEdu Numbe o people wi h High School o Equi alen
Educa ion (as a pe cen age o o al popula ion o a ea)
TUIK 2009–2019
Highe
Educa ion Highe Edu
Numbe o people wi h uni e si y deg ee o highe (as
a pe cen age o o al popula ion o a ea) TUIK 2009–2019
Table 2. Desc ip i e S a is ics o a iables a NUTS-II Le el.
Va iable Obse a ions Mean S d. De . Min Max
Ne Fi m Ra e 260 1.19524 0.733402 0.146809 4.285651
Fi m En y Ra e 260 1.518204 0.885455 0.318066 5.279316
Fi m Exi Ra e 260 0.322964 0.229062 0.03794 1.528773
Ne Fi m Ra e (Eco App oach) 260 10.6024 5.664764 1.185593 31.70771
Fi m En y Ra e (Eco App oach)
260 13.40471 6.440355 3.592346 39.40718
Fi m Exi Ra e (Eco App oach) 260 2.802314 1.536786 0.4855211 10.11756
Unemploymen Ra e 260 10.09846 4.532516 3.4 30.9
Labo Fo ce 260 13.68484 0.61707 12.54611 15.72327
GDP pe Capi a 260 10.00832 0.514404 8.749098 11.37047
Popula ion Densi y 260 4.534069 0.9140959 3.258096 8.002025
U baniza ion Ra e 260 81.30304 15.75268 46.62 100
Ne Mig a ion Ra e 260 −1.230411 9.488787 −29.41066 58.49405
Pa en Ra e 260 0.027546 0.035483 0 0.21935
High School Educa ion 260 0.211913 0.034973 0.132266 0.286355
Highe Educa ion 260 0.127327 0.042524 0.040111 0.278856
No e: Ne i m, i m en y, and i m exi a e da a a e collec ed om TOBB, and calcula ed by au ho s. Pa en a es
a e collec ed om TPMK, and calcula ed by au ho s. Ne mig a ion a e is calcula ed by au ho s.
Unemploymen a e
The unemploymen a e used in his pape is calcula ed wi h he o al numbe o
unemployed and he labo o ce in each egion (
Ui =To al Unemployedi /Labo Fo cei )
.
TUIK p o ides unemploymen a e da a which a e used in his pape .
Fi m Es ablishmen Ra es
The i m en y/exi a e can be calcula ed h ough wo me hods, he i m app oach
and he ecological app oach (A ming on & Acs,2002). The i m app oach, also e med he
labo ma ke app oach (Aud e sch & F i sch,1994), s a es ha he i m es ablishmen a e
Economies 2025,13, 28 7 o 22
be calcula ed as he numbe o i ms en e ing/exi ing ela i e o he labo o ce, whe eas
he ecological app oach is calcula ed by he numbe o i ms en e ing/exi ing ela i e o
he numbe o o al es ablished i ms. The ecological app oach can show ela i ely g ea e
di e ences in he en y/exi a e since i is based on he numbe o business es ablishmen s
in he egion (A ming on & Acs,2002).
This s udy makes use o bo h app oaches, allowing he au ho s and eade s o make
a compa ison be ween he esul s p oduced by each. Though esul s a e p esen ed o
bo h app oaches, he labo ma ke app oach is conside ed mo e app op ia e; hence, he
en y and exi a e able (see Table 3) and g aphics (see Figu es 1and 2) use he labo
ma ke app oach. The en y and exi a e able o he ecological app oach can be ound in
Appendix A(Table A1).
Table 3. NUTS-II egional unemploymen and i m s a is ics—annual a e age om 2010 o 2019.
Region Code
Labo Pa icipa ion
Unemploymen En y Ra e Exi Ra e
Adana TR62 50.44% 11.55% 4.16 1.19
Ag i TRA2 52.73% 6.91% 1.11 0.24
Anka a TR51 50.81% 11.09% 1.04 0.28
An alya TR61 56.81% 12.25% 2.16 0.56
Aydin TR32 55.24% 7.90% 1.42 0.38
Balikesi TR22 48.10% 6.20% 0.90 0.21
Bu sa TR41 50.09% 8.53% 1.96 0.38
E zu um TRA1 49.83% 6.89% 1.59 0.29
Gazian ep TRC1 44.89% 12.13% 3.51 0.73
Ha ay TR63 47.01% 13.81% 1.60 0.35
Is anbul TR10 53.56% 12.70% 2.37 0.43
Izmi TR31 59.78% 14.67% 1.84 0.37
Kas amonu TR82 54.67% 6.12% 1.36 0.22
Kayse i TR72 48.76% 10.95% 1.20 0.33
Ki ikkale TR71 49.37% 9.80% 1.44 0.34
Kocaeli TR42 54.08% 11.05% 0.68 0.20
Konya TR52 50.08% 6.40% 0.69 0.21
Mala ya TRB1 49.85% 7.78% 0.90 0.21
Manisa TR33 52.71% 5.77% 0.79 0.19
Ma din TRC3 37.90% 22.72% 0.80 0.25
Samsun TR83 51.69% 6.57% 0.54 0.09
Sanliu a TRC2 40.66% 15.45% 1.08 0.22
Teki dag TR21 57.03% 8.27% 0.92 0.17
T abzon TR90 54.84% 6.17% 2.05 0.25
Van TRB2 46.84% 14.26% 1.64 0.17
Zonguldak TR81 53.03% 7.79% 1.72 0.15
Calcula ed by he au ho s; he en y and exi a es shown ha e been calcula ed using he labo ma ke app oach.
Economies 2025, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 o 23
Sanliu a TRC2 40.66% 15.45% 1.08 0.22
Teki dag TR21 57.03% 8.27% 0.92 0.17
T abzon TR90 54.84% 6.17% 2.05 0.25
Van TRB2 46.84% 14.26% 1.64 0.17
Zonguldak TR81 53.03% 7.79% 1.72 0.15
Calcula ed by he au ho s; he en y and exi a es shown ha e been calcula ed using he labo ma -
ke app oach.
A a ia ion in en y and exi a es ac oss he egion is obse ed wi h some ou lie s
ha ha e much highe o lowe en y/exi a es han he a e age. Obse ing he annual
en y a es, wi h an excep ion o a dip in 2012, hey ha e been inc easing since 2010 ac oss
Tü kiye, while he exi a es ha e emained consis en o he mos pa o e his pe iod
(see Figu e 1). In addi ion, we obse e ha he en y a es ha e inc eased o e he yea s
among egions, bu he dispa i y has also inc eased be ween he egions. While he diffe -
ence be ween he highes and lowes in 2010 i m o ma ion a e was 3.212, i ose o 4.619
in 2019, which implies ha be ween- egion a ia ion is ising. This obse a ion is also
con i med by he ising s anda d de ia ion and a iance, hus sugges ing ha he e is
mo e a ia ion in i m o ma ion a e ac oss Tü kiye han in he pas (see Table 4). Ano he
obse a ion is ha he i m exi a es ha e dec eased o e he yea s signaling be e sus-
ainabili y o i ms in he ma ke . P o ided ha he e is a ise in he numbe o new i ms,
i would also na u ally gi e a ise in employmen oppo uni ies and economic g ow h.
Figu e 1. Annual i m en y and exi a e in Tü kiye om 2010 o 2021 (pe 1000 LF).
Table 4. Fi m en y and exi a e desc ip i e s a is ics o e he s udied pe iod.
Min Max Mean SD Va iance
Fi m Fo ma ion Ra e (2010) 0.708 3.920 1.552 0.764 0.584
Fi m Fo ma ion Ra e (2014) 0.380 4.008 1.423 0.847 0.717
Fi m Fo ma ion Ra e (2019) 0.660 5.279 1.753 1.087 1.181
Fi m Exi Ra e (2010) 0.107 1.320 0.333 0.261 0.068
Fi m Exi Ra e (2014) 0.099 1.206 0.363 0.228 0.052
Fi m Exi Ra e (2019) 0.070 0.994 0.270 0.186 0.035
On he o he hand, unemploymen dispa i ies ac oss egions should also be no ed as
he a e age annual unemploymen o he s udied pe iod a ies conside ably, wi h 5.77%
being he lowes in Manisa (Wes side o Tü kiye) and 22.72% being he highes in Ma din
(Sou heas o Tü kiye). O e all, his end can be obse ed ac oss wes e n egions and eas
Figu e 1. Annual i m en y and exi a e in Tü kiye om 2010 o 2021 (pe 1000 LF).
Economies 2025,13, 28 8 o 22
Economies 2025, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 o 23
and sou heas e n egions. In Tü kiye, hese dispa i ies a e mo e p onounced due o de-
elopmen diffe ences among he eas and wes , and his de elopmen gap is e lec ed in
he unemploymen a es (Filiz ekin, 2009). The egional dispa i ies can be explained by
he diffe ences in a ious ac o s such as he labo ma ke pa icipa ion a es, he sha e o
he young popula ion, he sha e o ag icul u e in he o e all economic ac i i ies o he
egion, and educa ion a ainmen (O han & Gülel, 2016). Income dispa i ies also impac
he indi iduals, whe e highe pe capi a income in u ban se ings a ac s skilled and un-
skilled wo ke s, he e o e leading o inc eased in e nal mig a ion among he egions. Re-
gions ha lag economically ha e low p oduc i i y and alue-added economic ac i i ies,
lowe employmen a es, and high popula ion g ow h when compa ed o o he egions
(Ka aalp-O han, 2020). Among o he s, hese ac o s a e esponsible o he dispa i y ha
is obse ed in he unemploymen a es o Tü kiye as shown in Figu e 2 (annual a e age
unemploymen a e be ween 2010 and 2019). While we hypo hesize ha highe unem-
ploymen should lead o highe i m o ma ion a es, his may also a y due o o he ac-
o s such as educa ion ha ha e a posi i e effec on new i m o ma ion. I is also obse ed
in he p e ious li e a u e ha eas e n and sou heas e n egions lag in educa ion le els
(Lynn e al., 2015), which may explain why hei new i m o ma ion a es a e also lowe .
Figu e 2. The a e age annual unemploymen , i m o ma ion, and i m exi a es om 2010 o 2019.
Labo Ma ke App oach
Ne Fi m Fo ma ion =Numbe o Fi ms Es ablishedi, −Numbe o Fi ms Closedi,
Labo Fo cei, (1000)
Fi m En y Ra e =Numbe o Fi ms Es ablishedi,
Labo Fo cei, (1000)
Fi m Exi Ra e =Numbe o Fi ms Closedi,
Labo Fo cei, (1000)
Ecological App oach
Ne Fi m Fo ma ion =Numbe o Fi ms Es ablishedi, −Numbe o Fi ms Closedi,
Numbe o Exis ing Businessesi, −1
Economies 2025,13, 28 15 o 22
Table 9. Uni oo es esul s using Le in–Lin–Chu (LLC), B ei ung, and Ha is-Tza alis me hods.
LLC p-Value B ei ung p-Value
Ha is-Tza alis
p-Value
Fi m En y −24.9215 *** 0.000 −38.2234 *** 0.000 0.3277 *** 0.000
Ne Fi m Fo ma ion
−27.4591 *** 0.000 −33.9428 *** 0.000 0.3609 *** 0.000
Unemploymen −14.095 *** 0.000 −21.6713 *** 0.000 0.6575 *** 0.000
Ma ching −22.5148 *** 0.000 −15.0071 *** 0.000 0.5884 *** 0.000
Vacancies −18.7109 *** 0.000 −8.9225 *** 0.000 0.7218 *** 0.000
S anda d e o s in pa en heses, *** p< 0.01.
The i s s ep is o examine he ela ionship be ween i m o ma ion and unemploymen .
As men ioned be o e, he li e a u e p o ides e idence in bo h di ec ions o his ela ion,
which a e namely he Schumpe e e ec and he Re ugee e ec . In he ci y-le el analysis,
some addi ional lagged a iables a e used. The use o u he lags is plausible in mon hly
da a because he equency o he e ec s can be delayed. Mo eo e , since his da ase has a
la ge numbe o obse a ions, lags can be applied and s ill p o ide meaning ul esul s.
4.1.1. Re ugee E ec
Ci y-le el esul s suppo he egional le el; ha is, he e is a posi i e e ec o
unemploymen on ne i m o ma ion. As unemploymen inc eases, i m o ma ion also
inc eases, gi ing ise o new businesses and new employmen oppo uni ies. Using a
6-mon h lag o he i s yea and a 12-mon h lag a e wa d up o 5 yea s, he e ugee e ec
is ound o be s onges a e 2 and 3 yea s.
4.1.2. Schumpe e E ec
The Schumpe e e ec was no signi ican a he egional le el. The ci y-le el analysis
esul s poin ou a posi i e and signi ican Schumpe e e ec (see Table 10). The decline
in coe icien s implies ha he long- un e ec s exceed hose o he sho un. A poin o
no e is ha in he 4 h and 5 h yea s, his s udy inds a nega i e and signi ican ela ionship,
showing ha as ime passes, new i m o ma ion does lead o a dec ease in unemploymen .
Hence, i is concluded ha , in he long un, new i ms can help o educe unemploymen
and ha e a posi i e e ec on he labo ma ke .
Table 10. Fixed-e ec s eg ession esul s o ci y-le el analysis.
Ne Fi m (5) Unemploymen (6)
A Le el (no lags) 0.0793 *** 0.0549 ***
−0.0129 −0.00892
6-mon h lag 0.248 *** 0.0202 **
−0.013 −0.00908
12-mon h lag 0.266 *** 0.0000796
−0.0129 −0.00924
24-mon h lag 0.364 *** 0.0358 ***
−0.0151 −0.00917
36-mon h lag 0.343 *** 0.000117
−0.0172 −0.00912
48-mon h lag 0.140 *** −0.0683 ***
−0.0172 −0.00924
60-mon h lag 0.187 *** −0.124 ***
−0.0174 −0.0106
Obse a ions 8748 8748
S anda d e o s in pa en heses, ** p< 0.05, *** p< 0.01.
Economies 2025,13, 28 16 o 22
4.1.3. Employmen Analysis
S o ey (1985) inds ha manu ac u ing i ms a e gene ally 8 o 9 yea s old when hey
each peak employmen . The e o e, he lag s uc u e may be an impo an ac o when
s udying his ela ionship gi en ha some e ec s will be ealized in he medium o long
un. Ou o e all esul s a e in line wi h Apaydin (2018) who also in es iga ed Tu kish
i ms, hough in hei s udy hey only ound e idence o he Schumpe e e ec and no
he e ugee e ec . To u he he analysis, acancy da a a e u ilized o explo e he impac
o new i m o ma ion. Findings in his s udy sugges ha he e is a signi ican posi i e
ela ionship be ween i m o ma ion and acancies a le el and wi h a 6-mon h lag (see
Table 11). Howe e , wi h u he lags, he ela ionship is no signi ican . Though i was
expec ed o be posi i e in he long un, he e idence does no suppo ha hypo hesis.
Table 11. Fixed-e ec s eg ession esul s o employmen analysis.
Vacancies (7) Ma ching (8)
A Le el (no lags) 0.166 *** 0.112 ***
−0.0171 −0.0179
6-mon h lag 0.0629 *** 0.0456 ***
−0.0162 −0.0172
12-mon h lag 0.0233 0.0375 **
−0.0149 −0.0163
24-mon h lag −0.0117 −0.0274 *
−0.0129 −0.0152
36-mon h lag −0.0228 0.023
−0.0121 −0.0154
48-mon h lag 0.0153 0.0713 ***
−0.0117 −0.016
60-mon h lag 0.00244 −0.0197
−0.0124 −0.0174
Obse a ions 9720 9720
S anda d e o s in pa en heses, * p< 0.10, ** p< 0.05, *** p< 0.01.
New i ms can be an impo an sou ce o job openings, c ea ing oppo uni ies o
he local labo ma ke . Employmen g ow h as a esul o new i ms is es ablished in he
li e a u e in he case o di e en coun ies, Spain (A auzo Ca od e al.,2008), he US (Acs &
Muelle ,2008), and Po ugal (Bap is a e al.,2008), among many o he s. In he li e a u e,
he e a e di e en e ec s o i m o ma ion on employmen . One is an immedia e e ec
on job c ea ion; he second is he displacemen o exis ing jobs; and he hi d e e s o
he long- e m e ec s ha may esul om inc eased compe i ion (Bap is a & P e o,2011).
These e ec s may di e in magni ude and iming gi en he di e en egions and economic
makeup o he coun ies. This s udy in es iga es whe he a ela ionship exis s be ween
i m o ma ion and he numbe o mon hly employmen ma ches in he labo ma ke . The
esul s imply a posi i e ela ionship be ween i m o ma ion and ma ching in he i s yea ,
hough he s eng h o he ela ionship dec eases wi h u he lags.
5. Discussion
The exis ing li e a u e on i m o ma ion and unemploymen p o ides e idence o
mixed esul s. Al hough s udies ocusing on de eloped economies a e mo e abundan ,
he e is also ising in e es in s udying he same ques ion o de eloping economies o e
he pas 15 o 20 yea s. To ob ain a be e unde s anding o his ela ionship, his s udy
u ilizes bo h a NUTS-II- and NUTS-III-le el analysis using da a on Tü kiye ha inco po a e
a ious a iables ha may a ec i m o ma ion o unemploymen .
Economies 2025,13, 28 17 o 22
On he NUTS-II le el, we ind e idence o an unemploymen push hypo hesis
complemen ing di e en s udies ha ha e ound he same in he pas (Aub y e al.,2015;
Ca ee & Deja din,2020;Wosiek,2023). We also ind ha educa ion plays an impo an
ole in i m o ma ion, adding o he s and o he li e a u e which s a es ha highe
le els o educa ion lead o highe en ep eneu ship (Jiménez e al.,2015). Simila ly, he
unemploymen push o e ugee e ec is also ound h ough he ci y-le el analysis. Using
lagged da a, his s udy de e mined ha he e ec s inc ease wi h ime, eaching he highes
poin in yea 3. This con i ms ou hypo hesis ha highe unemploymen would lead o
highe i m o ma ion.
The Schumpe e e ec , en ep eneu ship leading o lowe unemploymen , is ound o
be signi ican a he ci y le el wi h 48- and 60-mon h lags. New i m o ma ion may educe
unemploymen in he medium o long un. Di e en ly om p e ious s udies, acancies
and employee ma ching we e used as dependen a iables o obse e whe he hey a e
impac ed by i m o ma ion. Fi m o ma ion has a posi i e e ec on acancies in he sho
un (6- and 12-mon h lags), which is also in line wi h he pas li e a u e on employmen
g ow h esul ing om new i m es ablishmen (Bap is a e al.,2008). In he long un, we do
ind e idence o ou hypo hesis o he p esence o he Schumpe e e ec ; howe e , we do
no ind his in he sho o medium un.
This s udy has se e al implica ions. Fi s , new i ms and en ep eneu ial ac i i y
should be p io i ized wi hin go e nmen policies. The ocus should be on small- and
medium-sized en e p ises which c ea e employmen oppo uni ies. En ep eneu ial
aining and educa ion may also mo i a e indi iduals o mo e owa ds new i ms. Second,
he e can be a g ea e ocus on egions ha ha e lowe educa ion le els since educa ion
plays an impo an ole in i m o ma ion. Cu en ly, he e a e educa ion dispa i ies among
di e en egions wi hin Tü kiye; he e o e, he ocus should be u ned owa ds c ea ing an
equal playing ield h ough imp o emen s ac oss egions. This may be a ained h ough
egional policies ha ocus on and p io i ize egions ha cu en ly lag behind.
6. Conclusions
This s udy examines he ela ionship be ween i m o ma ion and unemploymen
a he NUTS-II le el in Tü kiye. We in es iga e how new i m o ma ion a ec s
unemploymen and ice e sa using a 10-yea da ase o he coun y co e ing he pe iod
2010–2019. In addi ion, he pape es s he ela ionship on he NUTS-III le el, albei wi h
sligh ly di e en da a han ha e been used adi ionally in he li e a u e. Ins ead o using
o al unemploymen , we u ilize mon hly newly egis e ed unemployed indi iduals, and
we do he same o acancies and labo ma ke ma ching s a is ics. The esul s show ha
unemploymen does lead o an inc ease in i m o ma ion in Tü kiye on he egional le el,
which is complemen ed by he esul s om he ci y-le el analysis.
This s udy adds o he li e a u e on he e ugee and Schumpe e e ec s wi hin he ield
o i m o ma ion and unemploymen . I also p o ides insigh s in o he lagged e ec s o
his ela ionship. Las ly, i con ibu es o he li e a u e in his ield on eme ging economies.
Ideally, mic oda a would be p e e ed o be e unde s and he ela ionship be ween he
s udied a iables. Howe e , due o da a limi a ions, he cu en s udy u ilizes NUTS-II and
NUTS-III da a. In u u e s udies, sec o al analysis should also be conside ed because i m
o ma ion in di e en sec o s can a ec he labo ma ke s di e en ly. Sec o al g ow h may
also be an impo an aspec o u u e s udies. The impac o he concen a ion o di e en
i ms ( i m densi y) and i m di e si y on labo ma ke s is an in e es ing a enue o u u e
esea ch. Fu he mo e, gi en he apid ise in he numbe o immig an s in Tü kiye, he
e ec s o o eign i m o ma ion is an impo an ques ion o analyze.
Economies 2025,13, 28 18 o 22
F om a policy pe spec i e, he e a e a ious implica ions. Fi s , policies should ocus
on suppo ing new i ms since hey p o ide employmen oppo uni ies. In addi ion, he
go e nmen should o mula e policies ha dec ease he dispa i ies among egions wi hin
Tü kiye. The e is ac i ely a lowe deg ee o i m o ma ion in sou heas e n Tü kiye which
is possibly oo ed in lowe educa ional le els, ewe employmen oppo uni ies, and slowe
economic g ow h. The e o e, policies should y o imp o e he economic si ua ion o
ci ies whe e he e is slowe economic g ow h and lowe educa ion le els since hese a e
signi ican ac o s in i m o ma ion.
Au ho Con ibu ions: M.M.: Concep ualiza ion, da a cu a ion, o mal analysis, me hodology, p ojec
adminis a ion, so wa e, isualiza ion, w i ing—o iginal d a , w i ing— e iew and edi ing. ¸S.G.I.:
Funding acquisi ion, so wa e, me hodology, p ojec adminis a ion, supe ision, alida ion, w i ing—
e iew and edi ing. All au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: This esea ch ecei ed no ex e nal unding.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : The da a is a ailable in public sou ces and is a ailable upon eques o he
au ho s a muhammad.moiz@s u.ihu.edu. . Da a used in his s udy a e a ailable h ough he websi e
o he Tu kish S a is ical Ins i u e (h ps://www. uik.go . / accessed on 15 May 2022) and Union
o Chambe s and Commodi y Exchanges o Tü kiye (h ps:// obb.o g. /BilgiE isimMudu lugu/
Say ala /Eng/Ku ulanKapananSi ke is a is ikle i.php, accessed on 5 Ap il 2022).
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic s o in e es .
Appendix A
Table A1. NUTS-II i m en y and exi a e a e age o 2010–2019 acco ding o he ecological app oach
pe 1000 i ms.
Region Code En y Ra e Exi Ra e
Adana TR62 16.64 3.21
Ag i TRA2 7.30 1.21
Anka a TR51 28.68 5.73
An alya TR61 17.38 3.16
Aydin TR32 10.49 2.81
Balikesi TR22 7.72 2.10
Bu sa TR41 17.14 3.30
E zu um TRA1 8.32 2.65
Gazian ep TRC1 17.13 1.96
Ha ay TR63 12.21 2.01
Is anbul TR10 30.12 8.29
Izmi TR31 18.08 4.60
Kas amonu TR82 7.06 2.23
Kayse i TR72 13.55 3.24
Ki ikkale TR71 10.71 3.04
Kocaeli TR42 15.36 2.85
Konya TR52 13.02 2.84
Mala ya TRB1 11.00 2.36
Manisa TR33 8.04 1.91
Ma din TRC3 18.86 1.68
Samsun TR83 8.53 1.95
Sanliu a TRC2 16.33 1.67
Teki dag TR21 10.27 2.17
T abzon TR90 7.60 1.88
Van TRB2 11.60 2.33
Zonguldak TR81 6.74 2.03
In he calcula ion o he en y and exi a e, we need o al es ablished i ms
−
1, and he e o e, he a e age is 9
yea s, and −1 is equal o 2010 and onwa ds. The a e is calcula ed pe 1000 es ablished i ms.
Economies 2025,13, 28 19 o 22
As expec ed, he a e is much highe when compa ed o he labo ma ke app oach
because he denomina o o he ecological app oach (numbe o es ablished i ms pe 1000)
is much smalle han ha o he labo ma ke app oach (labo o ce pe 1000).
Appendix B
Table A2. Resul s o uni oo es o all a iables used a he NUTS-II le el.
LLC p-Value
Ne Fi m Fo ma ion −3.5095 0.0002
Fi m En y −4.1083 0.0000
Fi m Exi −2.0145 0.0220
Ne Fi m Fo ma ion (Ecological App oach)
−3.4776 0.0003
Fi m En y (Ecological App oach) −4.5162 0.0000
Fi m Exi (Ecological App oach) −3.6476 0.0001
Unemploymen Ra e −16.2775 0.0000
Labo Fo ce −4.0952 0.0000
GDP pe capi a 3.496 0.9998
Popula ion Densi y −5.8898 0.0000
U baniza ion −4.3556 0.0000
Ne Mig a ion −3.641 0.0001
Pa en Ra e −4.824 0.0000
High School Educa ion 11.7304 1.0000
Highe Educa ion −10.9512 0.0000
Gi en ha he e was a small T alue in his s udy (10 ime pe iods) and he uni oo
es s show nons a iona y GDP pe capi a, he au ho s examined s udies ha had been
speci ically conduc ed on he uni oo es ing o GDP o GDP pe capi a. The e a e mixed
esul s in he li e a u e, wi h some s udies inding he GDP da a o a ious coun ies o be
s a iona y (Hegwood & Papell,2007;Chang e al.,2008;Mu hy & Ano uo,2009;Chang,
2011;Chang e al.,2014), whe eas o he s udies ind he e be a uni oo ac oss a ious
coun ies s udied (Chang e al.,2006;Guloglu & ˙
I endi,2010;Çina ,2015). In he case o
Tü kiye, Oz u k and Kalyoncu (2007) ind he GDP pe capi a da a o be s a iona y using
he ADF uni oo es . Al hough Ze en and ˙
I¸slek (2019) ind ha a uni oo does exis in
he GDP pe capi a da a o D8 coun ies including Tü kiye, hey use a BCIPS panel uni
oo es . The e is ye a deba e abou whe he uni oo should be es ed on da a whe e he
Tis small, since he uni oo es can gi e inaccu a e esul s. In addi ion, in his s udy, he
N(26) is much g ea e han T(10), and he e o e, i may no be app op ia e o es o uni
oo , hough he esul s a e shown in he body and appendix o he pape .
Appendix C
Table A3. Hausman es esul s o decide whe he o use andom e ec s o ixed e ec s.
Coe icien s
(b) (B) (b −B) sq (diag(V_b-V_B))
e e Di e ence S d. E .
Unemploymen Ra e 0.2427587 0.4031754 −0.1604166 0.041485
GDP Pe Capi a −1.064694 −0.4587345 −0.605959 0.2288104
Popula ion Densi y 1.019697 0.2222758 0.797421 0.9243385
U baniza ion −0.0012686 0.0016915 −0.0029602 0.001102
Ne Mig a ion −0.0045125 −0.0029208 −0.0015918 0.0005281
Pa en Ra e 5.125259 5.572583 −0.4473243 0.9470923
High School Educa ion 9.612212 0.0554659 9.556747 2.445507
Highe Educa ion 14.75648 11.3589 3.39758 2.680975
b = consis en unde H0; Ha, B = inconsis en unde Ha, e icien unde H0. Tes o H0: di e ence in coe icien s is
no sys ema ic. chi2(8) = (b
−
B)’[(V_b-V_B)ˆ(
−
1)](b
−
B) = 27.64. P ob > chi2 = 0.0005 (V_b-V_B is no posi i e
de ini e).
Economies 2025,13, 28 20 o 22
The Hausman es shows ha he ixed-e ec s model is app op ia e o he da ase
used in his a icle.
No es
1
A coun e a gumen is ha a highe GDP pe capi a implies a highe pu chasing powe o indi iduals, which may mo i a e
people o s a up businesses. To examine ha channel, we should check he consume expendi u e da a and see i hey aise he
ne i m o ma ion.
2
The esea ch and de elopmen spending o each egion was also conside ed as a a iable; howe e , due o a lack o da a, i was
omi ed. While we ha e u ilized da a since 2009, he R&D da a a he NUTS-II le el is only a ailable om he yea 2018 onwa ds.
3The da a on egis e ed unemployed each mon h a e no sha ed by he Tu kish Employmen Agency s a ing in 2018.
Re e ences
Acs, Z., & A ming on, C. (2004). Employmen g ow h and en ep eneu ial ac i i y in ci ies. Regional S udies,38, 911–927. [C ossRe ]
Acs, Z. J., & Muelle , P. (2008). Employmen e ec s o business dynamics: Mice, gazelles and elephan s. Small Business Economics,30,
85–100. [C ossRe ]
Al ında˘g, O., Bakı¸s, O., & Rozo, S. V. (2020). Blessing o bu den? Impac s o e ugees on businesses and he in o mal economy. Jou nal
o De elopmen Economics,146, 102490. [C ossRe ]
Apaydin, ¸S. (2018). The ela ions be ween unemploymen and en ep eneu ship in Tü kiye: Schumpe e o e ugee e ec ?
Fiscaoeconomia,2, 1–14. [C ossRe ]
A auzo Ca od, J. M., Li iano Solís, D., & Ma ín Bo a ull, M. (2008). New business o ma ion and employmen g ow h: Some e idence
o he Spanish manu ac u ing indus y. Small Business Economics,30, 73–84. [C ossRe ]
A ming on, C., & Acs, Z. J. (2002). The de e minan s o egional a ia ion in new i m o ma ion. Regional S udies,36, 33–45. [C ossRe ]
Ashc o , B., & Lo e, J. H. (1996). Fi m bi hs and employmen change in he B i ish coun ies: 1981–89. Pape s in Regional Science,75,
483–500. [C ossRe ]
Aub y, M., Bonne , J., & Renou-Maissan , P. (2015). En ep eneu ship and he business cycle: The “Schumpe e ” e ec e sus he
“ e ugee” e ec —A F ench app aisal based on egional da a. The Annals o Regional Science,54, 23–55. [C ossRe ]
Aud e sch, D. B. (1995). Inno a ion and indus y e olu ion. MIT P ess.
Aud e sch, D. B. (2002). En ep eneu ship: De e minan s and policy in a Eu opean-US compa ison. Sp inge Science & Business Media.
Aud e sch, D. B., & F i sch, M. (1994). On he measu emen o en y a es. Empi ica,21, 105–113. [C ossRe ]
Aud e sch, D. B., & Thu ik, A. R. (2001). Wha ’s new abou he new economy? Sou ces o g ow h in he managed and en ep eneu ial
economies. Indus ial and Co po a e Change,10, 267–315. [C ossRe ]
Bap is a, R., Escá ia, V., & Mad uga, P. (2008). En ep eneu ship, egional de elopmen and job c ea ion: The case o Po ugal. Small
Business Economics,30, 49–58. [C ossRe ]
Bap is a, R., & P e o, M. T. (2011). New i m o ma ion and employmen g ow h: Regional and business dynamics. Small Business
Economics,36, 419–42. [C ossRe ]
Blanch lowe , D. G., & Meye , B. D. (1994). A longi udinal analysis o he young sel -employed in Aus alia and he Uni ed S a es.
Small Business Economics,6, 1–19. [C ossRe ]
Blau, D. M. (1987). A ime-se ies analysis o sel -employmen in he Uni ed S a es. Jou nal o Poli ical Economy,95, 445–67. [C ossRe ]
Ca ee, M., & Deja din, M. (2020). Fi m en y and exi in local ma ke s: ‘Ma ke pull’ o ‘unemploymen push’ e ec s, o bo h?
In e na ional Re iew o En ep eneu ship,18, 371–386.
Ce i oglu, E., Yuncule , H. B. G., To un, H., & Tumen, S. (2017). The impac o Sy ian e ugees on na i es’ labo ma ke ou comes in
Tu key: E idence om a quasi-expe imen al design. IZA Jou nal o Labo Policy,6, 5. [C ossRe ]
Chang, T. (2011). Is pe capi a eal GDP s a iona y? An empi ical no e o 16 ansi ion coun ies. In e na ional Jou nal o Business and
Economics,10, 81.
Chang, T., Chang, H. L., Chu, H. P., & Su, C. W. (2006). Is pe capi a eal GDP s a iona y in A ican coun ies? E idence om panel
SURADF es . Applied Economics Le e s,13, 1003–1008. [C ossRe ]
Chang, T., Chu, H. P., & Ranjba , O. (2014). A e GDP luc ua ions ansi o y o pe manen in A ican coun ies? Sequen ial panel
selec ion me hod. In e na ional Re iew o Economics & Finance,29, 380–399.
Chang, T., Lee, K. C., Kang, S. C., & Liu, W. C. (2008). Is pe capi a eal GDP s a iona y in La in Ame ican coun ies? E idence om a
panel s a iona y es wi h s uc u al b eaks. Economics Bulle in,3, 1–12.
Che a ian, I., Golpe, A., Gol aba , S., & Iglesias, J. (2020). The unemploymen -en ep eneu ship nexus: New e idence om 30 I anian
p o inces. In e na ional Jou nal o Eme ging Ma ke s,15, 469–489. [C ossRe ]
Cole, I. M. (2018). Unemploymen and en ep eneu ship in he Mid-A lan ic egion o he Uni ed S a es: A spa ial panel da a analysis.
Re iew o Regional S udies,48, 347–375. [C ossRe ]
Economies 2025,13, 28 21 o 22
Çina , S. (2015). OECD ülkele inde ki¸si ba¸si gsyih du a˘gan mi? panel e i analizi. Ma ma a Üni e si esi ˙
Ik isadi e ˙
Ida i Bilimle De gisi,
29, 591–601.
da Fonseca, J. G. (2022). Unemploymen , en ep eneu ship and i m ou comes. Re iew o Economic Dynamics,45, 322–338. [C ossRe ]
Del Ca pio, X. V., & Wagne , M. C. (2015). The impac o Sy ian e ugees on he Tu kish labo ma ke [Wo ld Bank policy esea ch wo king
pape 7402]. Wo ld Bank G oup.
Demi dag, ˙
I., & E aydin, A. (2021). Explaining egional di e ences in i m o ma ion a es: How a a e go e nmen policies impo an
o en ep eneu ship? Jou nal o En ep eneu ship in Eme ging Economies,13, 254–281. [C ossRe ]
Edobo , E. W., & Ma shall, M. I. (2021). Ea h, wind, wa e , i e and man: How disas e s impac i m bi hs in he USA. Na u al Haza ds,
107, 395–421. [C ossRe ]
E ans, D. S., & Leigh on, L. S. (1990). Small business o ma ion by unemployed and employed wo ke s. Small Business Economics,2,
319–330. [C ossRe ]
Filiz ekin, A. (2009). Regional unemploymen in Tu key. Pape s in Regional Science,88, 863–878. [C ossRe ]
Foels e , S. (2000). Do en ep eneu s c ea e jobs? Small Business Economics,14, 137–148. [C ossRe ]
F i sch, M., & Muelle , P. (2004). E ec s o new business o ma ion on egional de elopmen o e ime. Regional S udies,38, 961–975.
[C ossRe ]
Gaygisiz, E., & Koksal, M. Y. (2003). Regional a ia ion in new i m o ma ion in Tu key: C oss-sec ion and panel da a e idence [ERC wo king
pape s in Economics 03/08]. ERC-Economic Resea ch Cen e , Middle Eas Technical Uni e si y.
Goschin, Z., An onia, M., & Tigau, H. (2021). En ep eneu ship eco e y in Romania a e he g ea ecession. A dynamic spa ial panel
app oach. Sus ainabili y,13, 10702. [C ossRe ]
G igo escu, A., Pî ciog, S., & Linca u, C. (2020). Sel -employmen and unemploymen ela ionship in Romania–Insigh s by age,
educa ion and gende . Economic Resea ch-Ekonomska Is aži anja,33, 2462–2487. [C ossRe ]
G o z, R., & B ixy, U. (2002). En y-Ra es, he Sha e o Su i ing Businesses and Employmen G ow h: Di e ences be ween Wes and Eas
Ge many since Uni ica ion. A ailable online: h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/115658 (accessed on 5 Ap il 2022).
Guloglu, B., & ˙
I endi, M. (2010). Ou pu luc ua ions: T ansi o y o pe manen ? he case o La in Ame ica. Applied Economics Le e s,
17, 381–386. [C ossRe ]
Günalp, B., & Cilasun, S. M. (2006). De e minan s o en y in Tu kish manu ac u ing indus ies. Small Business Economics,27, 275–287.
[C ossRe ]
Hegwood, N., & Papell, D. H. (2007). A e eal GDP le els end, di e ence, o egime-wise end s a iona y? E idence om panel da a
es s inco po a ing s uc u al change. Sou he n Economic Jou nal,74, 104–113. [C ossRe ]
Hu s , E., & Lusa di, A. (2004). Liquidi y cons ain s, household weal h, and en ep eneu ship. Jou nal o Poli ical Economy,112, 319–347.
[C ossRe ]
Jiménez, A., Palme o-Cáma a, C., González-San os, M. J., González-Be nal, J., & Jiménez-Eguizábal, J. A. (2015). The impac o
educa ional le els on o mal and in o mal en ep eneu ship. BRQ Business Resea ch Qua e ly,18, 204–212. [C ossRe ]
Johansson, E. (2000). Sel -employmen and liquidi y cons ain s: E idence om Finland. Scandina ian Jou nal o Economics,102, 123–134.
[C ossRe ]
Ka aalp-O han, H. S. (2020). Regional dispa i ies in Tü kiye: A socio-economic pe spec i e. Eu opean Jou nal o Sus ainable De elopmen ,
9, 103. [C ossRe ]
Ka adeniz, E. (2019). Tü kiye’de Gi i¸simcilik e Ulusla a asi Ka ¸sila¸s i ma 2018. Global En ep eneu ship Moni o (GEM). A ailable
online: h ps://webdosya.kosgeb.go . /Con en /Upload/Dosya/Gi i%C5%9Fimcilik/GEM
_
Ku%CC%88 esel
_
Gi is%CC%
A7imcilik_Moni o%CC%88 u%CC%88-2019_Tu%CC%88 kiye_Rapo u.pd (accessed on 2 Oc obe 2022).
Ka ahasan, B. C. (2015). Dynamics o egional new i m o ma ion in Tu key. Re iew o U ban & Regional De elopmen S udies,27, 18–39.
Ka lsson, S., & Lo hg en, M. (2000). On he powe and in e p e a ion o panel uni oo es s. Economics Le e s,66, 249–255. [C ossRe ]
Kaya, S., & Ucdog uk, Y. (2002). The dynamics o en y and exi in u kish manu ac u ing indus y [ERC wo king pape s in Economics] (Vol.
2). Middle Eas Technical Uni e si y.
Kum, H., & Ka acao˘glu, K. (2012). The ela ionship be ween en ep eneu ship and unemploymen in Tü kiye: A dynamic analysis. A ailable
online: h p://hdl.handle.ne /20.500.11787/1997 (accessed on 2 Oc obe 2022).
Lynn, R., Saka , C., & Cheng, H. (2015). Regional di e ences in in elligence, income and o he socio-economic a iables in Tu key.
In elligence,50, 144–149. [C ossRe ]
Mu hy, V. N., & Ano uo, E. (2009). A e pe capi a eal GDP se ies in A ican coun ies non-s a iona y o non-linea ? Wha does
empi ical e idence e eal? Economics Bulle in,29, 2492–2504.
O’Lea y, D. (2022). Unemploymen and en ep eneu ship ac oss high-, middle-and low-pe o ming Eu opean egions. Regional S udies,
Regional Science,9, 571–580. [C ossRe ]
O han, H. S., & Gülel, F. E. (2016). Regional unemploymen in Tü kiye: A spa ial panel da a analysis. Jou nal o Social Secu i y,6, 47–67.
Oz u k, I., & Kalyoncu, H. (2007). Is pe capi a eal GDP s a iona y in he OECD coun ies? E idence om a panel uni oo es .
Ekonomski P egled,58, 680–688.
Economies 2025,13, 28 22 o 22
Öze kek, Y., & Do˘g uel, F. (2015). Sel -employmen and unemploymen in Tü kiye. Topics in Middle Eas e n and No h A ican Economies,
17, 133–152.
Payne, J. E., & Me a , A. (2017). The en ep eneu ship-unemploymen nexus in C oa ia. Jou nal o En ep eneu ship and Public Policy,6,
375–384. [C ossRe ]
Pico , G., Manse , M., & Lin, Z. (1998, Sep embe 24–26). The ole o sel -employmen in job c ea ion in Canada and he Uni ed S a es.
Canadian Employmen Resea ch Fo um (CERF)-LEED In e na ional Con e ence on Sel -Employmen (pp. 24–26), Bu ling on,
ON, Canada.
Pisá-Bó, M., López-Muñoz, J. F., & No eja que-Ci e a, J. (2021). The e e -changing socioeconomic condi ions o en ep eneu ship.
In e na ional En ep eneu ship and Managemen Jou nal,17, 1335–1355. [C ossRe ]
Ri silä, J., & Te o, H. (2002). E ec s o unemploymen on new i m o ma ion: Mic o-le el panel da a e idence om Finland. Small
Business Economics,19, 31–40. [C ossRe ]
San a selli, E., Ca ee, M., & Ve heul, I. (2009). Unemploymen and i m en y and exi : An upda e on con o e sial ela ionship.
Regional S udies,43, 1061–1073. [C ossRe ]
S o ey, D. J. (1985). Manu ac u ing employmen change in No he n England, 1965–1978: The ole o small businesses. Small Fi ms in
Regional Economic De elopmen , 6–42. [C ossRe ]
Sung, N., & Kim, J. (2020). En y and exi o small sel -employed businesses in Ko ea’s se ice indus ies. Small Business Economics,54,
303–322. [C ossRe ]
Thu ik, A. R., Ca ee, M. A., an S el, A., & Aud e sch, D. B. (2008). Does sel -employmen educe unemploymen ? Jou nal o Business
Ven u ing,23, 673–686. [C ossRe ]
TOBB. (2020). SMEs in Tu key. The union o chambe s and commodi y exchanges o Tü kiye. A ailable online: h ps://www. obb.o g. /
KobiA as i ma/Say ala /Eng/SMEsinTu key.php (accessed on 5 Ap il 2022).
Van S el, A., Ca ee, M., & Thu ik, R. (2005). The e ec o en ep eneu ial ac i i y on na ional economic g ow h. Small Business
Economics,24, 311–321. [C ossRe ]
Van S el, A., & S o ey, D. (2004). The link be ween i m bi hs and job c ea ion: Is he e a Upas ee e ec ? Regional S udies,38, 893–909.
[C ossRe ]
an S el, A., & Suddle, K. (2008). The impac o new i m o ma ion on egional de elopmen in he Ne he lands. Small Business
Economics,30, 31–47. [C ossRe ]
Van S el, A., Thu ik, R., Ve heul, I., & Baljeu, L. (2007). The ela ionship be ween en ep eneu ship and unemploymen in Japan (No. 07-080/3).
Tinbe gen ins i u e discussion pape . A ailable online: h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/86548.
Wo ld Bank. (2019). Small medium en e p ises (SMEs) inance. A ailable online: h ps://www.wo ldbank.o g/en/ opic/sme inance
(accessed on 25 Augus 2022).
Wosiek, M. (2023). Unemploymen and en e p ise bi hs in Eu opean coun ies: A sec o al app oach. Sus ainabili y,15, 1586. [C ossRe ]
Wosiek, M., Czudec, A., & Ka a, R. (2022). Rela ionship be ween unemploymen and new business egis a ions a he local le el: The
case o Poland. Pos -Communis Economies,34, 1083–1108. [C ossRe ]
Ze en, F., & ˙
I¸slek, H. (2019). Is pe capi a eal GDP s a iona y in he D-8 coun ies? e idence om a panel uni oo es . Selec ed Topics
in Applied Econome ics, Pe e Lang, Pie e len and Be n, 67–86.
Disclaime /Publishe ’s No e: The s a emen s, opinions and da a con ained in all publica ions a e solely hose o he indi idual
au ho (s) and con ibu o (s) and no o MDPI and/o he edi o (s). MDPI and/o he edi o (s) disclaim esponsibili y o any inju y o
people o p ope y esul ing om any ideas, me hods, ins uc ions o p oduc s e e ed o in he con en .
