Riege , E a
A icle — Published Ve sion
AManchu ian Candida e? The GOP’s Discou se on he
Russian Wa in Uk aine
Poli ische Vie eljah essch i
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Sp inge Na u e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Riege , E a (2024) : AManchu ian Candida e? The GOP’s Discou se on he
Russian Wa in Uk aine, Poli ische Vie eljah essch i , ISSN 1862-2860, Sp inge Fachmedien
Wiesbaden GmbH, Wiesbaden, Vol. 66, Iss. 1, pp. 77-99,
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11615-024-00558-7
Poli ische Vie eljah essch i (2025) 66:77–99
A Manchu ian Candida e? The GOP’s Discou se on he
Russian Wa in Uk aine
E a Riege
Recei ed: 30 No embe 2023 / Re ised: 9 July 2024 / Accep ed: 10 July 2024 / Published online: 20
Augus 2024
© Deu sche Ve einigung ü Poli ikwissenscha 2024
Abs ac The Uni ed S a es has a longs anding adi ion ega ding i s o e all o -
eign policy, in he o m o a bipa isan consensus. This includes—among o he
hings—main aining alliances and cu bing he in luence o i als (e.g., Russia). Since
his consensus has been in place, adi ionally he Republican Pa y (GOP) has been
especially in en on a less coope a i e and mo e con aining o de e ing s ance o-
wa ds Russia. Wi h o me U.S. P esiden Donald T ump, we can see a u ning poin
in his beha iou by he GOP. T ump’s ob ious admi a ion o Russian p esiden
Pu in and his s a emen s abou Pu in being o e ly a ou able, while simul aneously
ques ioning NATO and he Uni ed S a es’ commi men o de end Eas e n Eu opean
pa ne s, show a dis inc i e shi in he GOP’s discou se. This enuncia ion has sub-
sequen ly been picked up by pa s o he Republican Pa y, ende ing he bipa isan
consensus a con es ed issue. The ull-scale Russian in asion o Uk aine in Feb ua y
2022 now cons i u es an impo an ex e nal shock in luencing said discu si e shi .
By d awing on discou se-bound iden i y heo y and discou se analysis, he GOP’s
discou se ega ding Russia and NATO is expec ed o ha e (subs an ially) changed
in a kind o Zei enwende—back owa ds he bipa isan consensus. This a icle will,
he e o e, analyse he s a emen s o p ominen Republicans a e he Russian in-
asion, compa e hem o T ump’s posi ions on hese issues, and iden i y whe he
he in asion se es as a o ma i e e en ha c ea es an o e all shi in he o ic and
posi ions.
Keywo ds U.S. o eign policy discou se · Republican Pa y · NATO · Uk aine
wa · Bipa isan consensus
E a Riege
Uni e si y o Passau, Passau, Ge many
E-Mail: E [email p o ec ed]
K
78 E. Riege
Ein Manchu ian-Kandida ? De Disku s de Republikanischen Pa ei
zu Russlands K ieg in de Uk aine
Zusammen assung Die USA haben eine langanhal ende T adi ion in ih e allge-
meinen Außenpoli ik, in Fo m des sog. „bipa isan consensus“. Da in en hal en sind
u.a. das E hal en on Allianzen und die Einsch änkung des Ein lusses on Ri alen
(bspw. Russlands). Sei diese Konsens exis ie , e olgen die Republikane adi io-
nelle weise einen wenige koope a i en, ehe einhegenden und absch eckenden Ku s
gegenübe Russland. Mi dem ühe en US-P äsiden en T ump kann man hie eine
Wende im Ve hal en de Pa ei e kennen. Die Ve schiebung des Republikanischen
Disku ses zeig sich kla mi seine o ensich lichen Bewunde ung ü Russlands
P äsiden Pu in und seinen lobenden Aussagen übe diesen, wäh end e die NATO
und die Ve eidigungsp lich gegenübe os eu opäischen Pa ne n hin e ag . Diese
Abkeh on ühe en Posi ionen wu de da au hin on Teilen de Republikanischen
Pa ei übe nommen, wodu ch de bishe ige „bipa isan consensus“ con es e wi d.
Die ussische In asion de Uk aine im Feb ua 2022 s ell hie bei nun einen en schei-
denden ex e nen Schock da , de diesen disku si en Wandel beein lussen kann. Un e
de Einbeziehung de disku sgebundenen Iden i ä s heo ie und eine Disku sanalyse
wi d da on ausgegangen, dass sich de Republikanische Disku s zu Russland und
de NATO (e heblich) gewandel ha – zu ück zum „bipa isan consensus“ in eine
A Zei enwende. Da ü we den in diesem A ikel Aussagen ele an e Republika-
ne :innen nach de ussischen In asion analysie , mi den Posi ionen T umps zu
diesen Themen e glichen und es ges ell , ob es sich demnach um ein o ma i es
E eignis handel , du ch das ein gene elle Wandel in Rhe o ik und Eins ellungen
en s eh .
Schlüsselwö e US-Außenpoli ik Disku s · Republikanische Pa ei · NATO ·
Uk aine-K ieg · Bipa isan consensus
1 In oduc ion
The ull-scale Russian in asion o Uk aine in Feb ua y 2022 ma ks an ex e nal shock
in many o eign policy discou ses, o Eu ope as well as i s allies (e.g., he Uni ed
S a es). This ac o Russian agg ession cons i u es a b each o in e na ional law ha
wo ies Russia’s neighbou s (i.e., Eas e n Eu ope, Sweden, and Finland) and was
condemned by he majo i y o he Gene al Assembly o he Uni ed Na ions (UN).
I subsequen ly b ough abou changes o o eign policy (discou ses) in a numbe
o coun ies (Uni ed Na ions 2022). Conside ing Uk aine’s plea o membe ship
in he No h A lan ic T ea y O ganiza ion (NATO)—a e hei i s bid had been
denied in 2008—examining he e ec s o he Russian in asion on he discou ses
in NATO membe s a es seems especially wo hwhile. This is unde lined by he
ac ha o en imes compa isons o he Cold Wa a e d awn in he ace o NATO’s
appa en uni ed s ance agains Russia. In his espec , he discou se in he Uni ed
S a es, as he e s while enemy o Russia’s p edecesso s a e ( he So ie Union),
o e s a pa icula ly signi ican iew on his. Du ing he Cold Wa , he Republican
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A Manchu ian Candida e? The GOP’s Discou se on he Russian Wa in Uk aine 79
Pa y (GOP) in pa icula was known o i s ha d s ance agains he So ie Union.
This app oach pe sis ed a e he all o he So ie Union and ansi ioned in o
a adi ionally scep ical and hawkish beha iou owa ds Russia by he GOP (Bie ling
2000, pp. 125–126, 130). I is wo h no ing ha Democ a s ha e ecen ly shown mo e
an i-Russian iews han Republicans ha e (Tama 2023, p. 118).
Fo some ime, Donald T ump’s eme gence in he poli ical sphe e and especially
his p esidency we e cha ac e ized as a u ning poin in he o e all Ame ican po-
li ical landscape, and also especially in he Republican Pa y (Dück e al. 2020;
Spe ling and Webbe 2019;S e 2021). Because he has b oken no only wi h e i-
que e and adi ions bu also wi h long-s anding (Republican) policies, he is said
o ha e ans o med he pa y. This is especially no iceable in his di e gence om
he so-called bipa isan o eign policy consensus1(BFPC), which T ump himsel
announced he would b eak, e en hough i has been adhe ed o by bo h pa ies since
he Second Wo ld Wa (Dück e al. 2020; Spe ling and Webbe 2019, p. 511). Unde
he in luence o Donald T ump and his ollowe s, he GOP hen de ia ed om his
s ance owa ds Russia and NATO, and i can be obse ed ha he Republican Pa y
g adually di e ed om he BFPC, e en in he ace o Russia’s illegal annexa ion o
C imea. This sugges s a clea discu si e shi wi hin he GOP. The mos p ominen
examples o his a e Donald T ump saying he “had a e y, e y good ela ionship”
(T ump 2019) wi h Vladimi Pu in and p aising him (O e al. 2022;T ump2018),
while also calling NATO obsole e and ques ioning his own commi men o A icle V2
(BBC 2017; Sange and Habe man 2016a, b).
Howe e , he ull-scale Russian in asion o Uk aine in Feb ua y 2022 and he
con inuing wa se e as an ex e nal shock ha has b ough he impo ance o he
ansa lan ic alliance and ea s o an expansionis Russia back o he o e on . As
a esul , he Uni ed S a es has o ee alua e i s s a egic p io i ies, which had p e-
iously shi ed om Eu ope owa ds he Paci ic.3This b ings up he ques ion o
whe he his has he quali y o a o ma i e e en b inging abou changes in o eign
policy discou se. Speci ically, does he Russia–Uk aine wa wo k as a o ma i e
e en ha a ec s he GOP’s p io discu si e shi gi ing back discu si e hegemony
o he bipa isan consensus? O do T ump’s de ia ions ep esen a sus ainable dis-
cu si e shi in U.S. o eign policy? To answe his, I will d aw on discou se-bound
iden i y heo y and discou se analysis o examine he GOP’s discou se on hese
issues ollowing Feb ua y 2022. This means analysing he s a emen s o p omi-
nen Republicans a e he Russian in asion, compa ing hem o T ump’s and GOP
1The issues included in he bipa isan consensus a e main aining alliances (e.g., NATO), commi ing
o nonp oli e a ion and denuclea isa ion o s a es conside ed dange ous o he Uni ed S a es, suppo ing
Is ael, cu bing he in luence and global impac o i als (e.g., Russia and China), p ese ing he global
economic sys em, and add essing challenges o he U.S.-led in e na ional sys em posed by nons a e ac o s
(i.e., e o ism; Re e on e al. 2015, p. 113). Simila ly, Ikenbe y (2017, p. 3) speaks o i as he libe al
in e na ional o de “o ganized a ound economic openness, mul ila e al ins i u ions, secu i y coope a ion,
democ a ic solida i y, and in e na ionalis ideals.”
2This e e s o A icle V o NATO’s ounding ea y, which lays he legal g ound o mu ual de ense
wi hin he o ganiza ion.
3This eo ien a ion s a ed unde Obama’s p esidency wi h Sec e a y o S a e Clin on’s “pi o o Asia”
s a egy.
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80 E. Riege
leade ship’s posi ions on hese issues, and iden i ying whe he an o e all change
is disce nible.4The ma e ial used o his analysis includes cong essional deba es
conce ning Russia, Uk aine, o NATO, as well as o he public ema ks in (social)
media.
Looking in o he li e a u e on he bipa isan consensus, se e al ecen wo ks as-
ce ain i s e ea (especially among Republicans) o e he las decades (e.g., Bölle
2022a, b; Dück e al. 2020; Dueck 2020, pp. 1–8), wi h many ci ing pola isa ion ak-
ing o e o eign policy as well as domes ic issues (e.g., F ied ichs and Tama 2022;
Homan and Lan is 2022;Maxey2022; Smel z 2022;Tama2023, p. 6). In hem,
T ump is usually conside ed an accele a o o a symp om o pola isa ion a he han
an ins iga o . On he o he hand, many esea che s a gue ha he bipa isan con-
sensus emains ai ly obus on a ious impo an o eign policy issues (especially
NATO; e.g., Bölle 2022a, 2023;Tama2023). B yan and Tama (2022) came o he
conclusion ha al hough o eign policy deba es ha e become mo e pola ised, o ing
pa e ns s ill display a ela i ely s able BFPC. O e all, he e is gene al ag eemen
ha he BFPC has dec eased (wi h di e ing iews o he ex en ) bu ha his dec ease
s a ed be o e T ump’s p esidency, which only accele a ed i . Fu he , mos wo ks
a gue ha he bipa isan consensus emains in ac in some a eas, wi h Tama (2023)
and Bölle (2023) bo h de e mining i s obus ness conce ning he Russia–Uk aine
wa . Thus, he con as be ween p omo ion o a las ing libe al wo ld o de wi h he
BFPC and a con inuous shi away om i has been es ablished.
In his pape , I wish o add o his li e a u e by gi ing insigh in o he de el-
opmen o he GOP’s adhe ence o he BFPC, which can be aced and unde s ood
mo e deeply wi h a discou se analysis o hei a gumen s han wi h a simple analysis
o o ing and bill p oposals (especially wi h issues like NATO and Russia ha a e
no adi ionally spli along he le – igh dimension (Tama 2023, p. 218)). Thus,
he added alue o my esea ch lies in analysing he use and p e alence o di e en
discu si e o ma ions wi hin he Republican discou se, which can help in unde -
s anding he ading discu si e hegemony o he bipa isan consensus—e en in ligh
o he Russia–Uk aine wa . By looking a he GOP’s discou se in Cong ess, I can
ace he de elopmen o suppo ega ding NATO and Uk aine since he in asion in
2022 as well as link i o U.S. iden i y. As such, looking a he unde lying a gumen s
and o ganizing hem along discu si e o ma ions gi es indica ions abou whe he
he e is undamen al opposi ion o legisla ion o i he unde lying a gumen s a e
abou g ea e cong essional con ol. In he ollowing, I will i s gi e an o e iew
o he discou se-bound iden i y heo y, discou se analysis, and p e ious esea ch on
U.S. o eign policy (discou se). Nex , T ump’s posi ions on he issues o NATO and
Russia will be p esen ed. These will hen be compa ed o s a emen s by (p ominen )
Republicans ollowing he Russian in asion, and a inal conclusion on discu si e
hegemony will be d awn.
4Al hough T ump does no ep esen he ull Republican discou se, he clea ly exe cised g ea in luence
o e he pa y du ing his p esidency and con olled much o he na a i e, since mos GOP leade s ei he
ell in line o we e shunned. His posi ions will mos ly se e as a e e ence poin , and as such, a discu si e
hegemony o hem wi hin he GOP would hen imply i s sus ainabili y.
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A Manchu ian Candida e? The GOP’s Discou se on he Russian Wa in Uk aine 81
2 Discou se-Bound Iden i y Theo y and U.S. Fo eign Policy
Acco ding o discou se-bound iden i y heo y, na ional iden i y o ms a discu si ely
media ed amewo k wi hin which s a e ac ion is accep ed as app op ia e by all
membe s o socie y (S ahl 2012, p. 578). The GOP’s in e nal s uggle o di ec-
ion—especially in line wi h he 2022 mid e m elec ions and he 2024 p esiden ial
elec ion p ima ies—includes o eign policy aspec s. This is mani es ed in he pa y’s
discou se a ound c i ical and con es ed issues because uncon es ed opics usually
con ibu e o discou se only in he o m o a i ma ions. Thus, a ocus on hei s ance
ega ding Russia, Uk aine, and NATO shows he e ec s o he Russia–Uk aine wa
while u he gi ing insigh in o a possible b oade change o Republican o eign
policy discou se conce ning he bipa isan consensus and na ional iden i y in gene al.
Discou se-bound iden i y heo y is applied in o de o link hose dimensions, as i
posi s a collec i e na ional iden i y ha is o med ia social in e ac ion, c ea ing sel -
iden i ica ion o a na ion wi h i s sha ed his o y and he subsequen di e en ia ion
o he in e nal “sel ” (o in-g oup) om he ex e nal “o he ” (o ou -g oup). I is as-
sumed ha na ional iden i y and o eign policy beha iou a e mu ually cons i u i e,
wi h discou se ac ing as an in e media y o m o in e ac ion (Boekle and Nadoll
2003, pp. 159–163; Nadoll 2003, pp. 167–172; S ahl and Ha nisch 2009,p.42).
In discou se, na ional iden i y elemen s a e ( e)p oduced, in e p e ed, and a gumen-
a i ely linked wi h ecommenda ions o ac ion (S ahl and Ha nisch 2009, p. 42).
Discou se is con ingen , i.e., he s ipula ion o meaning is only empo a y (Nonho
and S engel 2014, p. 50), which al eady implies discu si e di e ences. In Foucaul ’s
unde s anding, hese a e exp essed in discu si e o ma ions (DFs; Foucaul 1981,
p. 58).
Following he social–cons uc i is school, he heo y pos ula es a wo ld ha
is socially cons uc ed h ough in e ac ion, gi ing discou se a cen al unc ion in
composing he ma e ial wo ld. Consequen ly, i is only h ough hei en y in o he
discou se ha ex e nal ac o s exe hei in luence o e discou se, e.g., by ac ing as
Fig. 1 Illus a ion o he discou se-bound iden i y heo y by Augs en e al. (2022, p. 5), based on (Nadoll
2003, p. 181)
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82 E. Riege
ca alys s (Nadoll 2003, p. 179). This also means ha whe he ex e nal shocks become
o ma i e e en s depends on how hey a e ecei ed and po ayed in na ional (he e,
wi hin he Republican Pa y’s) discou se (Fig. 1).
Because na ional iden i y is composed o a ious elemen s, each o which can
se e as he ul ima e a gumen in discou se, compe ing iden i ies a e a possibili y.
This also explains a possible change in a s a e’s o eign policy beha iou (S ahl and
Ha nisch 2009, pp. 38, 41). Discou se is s ongly in luenced by he in ol ed pe sons
o ins i u ions (also e e ed o as ele an discou se pa icipan s) whose pa icula
posi ion and in e ac ion wi h discou se and con ex shape he discou se’s s uc u e.
Especially in luen ial discou se pa icipan s, wi h o en cons i u ionally p ominen
posi ions, a e he eby called “p i ileged s o y elle s,” acco ding o Milliken (1999,
p. 236), which shows ha discou se is hie a chical. Following his assump ion, he
GOP discou se encompasses he s andpoin s o hei membe s o Cong ess, bu
membe s in p ominen posi ions hold mo e in luence (Ca celli 2022, p. 914).
Du ing he his o ical cons uc ion o iden i y, di e en DFs eme ge, each linking
a ce ain pa e n o a gumen a ion wi h iden i y elemen s and a esul ing ecom-
menda ion o ac ion in o eign policy beha iou . Depending on he in e p e a ion,
di e en a gumen s and ecommenda ions o ac ion can ollow om a single iden-
i y elemen . When one DF domina es o di e en o ma ions align in hei o eign
policy ecommenda ions, o ming a discu si e alliance, his is called discu si e hege-
mony. A aining such hen leads o a ce ain o eign policy beha iou , om which
one can in e change o con inui y. The ejec ion o a policy change no imbedded
in iden i y is hen e e ed o as “con es edness” (Nadoll 2003, p. 171). Howe e ,
iden i y change can also occu wi hou a di ec change in beha iou , whe eupon
he change in beha iou usually se s in a a la e poin in ime and hus ep esen s
a ca ch-up change o he widened ange o accep able ac ion (S ahl and Ha nisch
2009,p.47).
Since Republicans cu en ly ep esen he opposi ion pa y in he Uni ed S a es
and hold he majo i y only in he House, no he Sena e, hei op ions o ac i ely
engage in o eign policy-making a e limi ed. Howe e , cong essional app o al is
needed o mos o eign policy ac s (especially ega ding budge s). Cong ess can
pu o wa d i s own bills and block ini ia i es by he execu i e, which is happening
mo e equen ly due o inc eased pola isa ion (Bölle 2022b, pp. 676–677; Ca celli
2022, pp. 898–900; Homan and Lan is 2020, p. 2). Thus, an analysis based on GOP
discou se in he o m o cong essional deba es, bill p oposals, and o es as well as
(social media) s a emen s by pe inen Republican lawmake s seems mos ui ul o
de e mine he pa y’s s ance on he bipa isan consensus and o disce n (sus ainable)
discu si e shi s.
In U.S. his o y, isola ionism, in e na ionalism, and ealism ha e es ablished hem-
sel es as he h ee basic di ec ions o o eign policy, gene ally al e na ing a in e als
o one poli ical gene a ion (Wi kop e al. 2008, p. 275). Despi e ob ious di e -
ences, all DFs a e based on he belie o “Ame ican excep ionalism,” posi ing ha
he Uni ed S a es has he bes poli ical sys em, which is why i should be sp ead
h oughou he wo ld. Mo eo e , while he DFs a e sepa a e clus e s o a gumen s,
hey can o m discu si e alliances i hey a ou he same policy ecommenda ions
on a speci ic issue. This means, in ac ual o eign policy beha iou , isola ionism,
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A Manchu ian Candida e? The GOP’s Discou se on he Russian Wa in Uk aine 83
in e na ionalism, and ealism o en occu as a kind o hyb id (Ba e o and O’B yan
2014, pp. 179–180; Cox and S okes 2012, p. 31).
Isola ionism is a policy o nonin e en ion and isola ion om he ou side wo ld,
o en adop ed om a posi ion o weakness and hus in ended o ( e)s eng hen one’s
na ion. I is assumed ha he libe al sys em o he Uni ed S a es se es as a “beacon
o eedom” (Ba e o and O’B yan 2014, p. 179), se ing as a ole model ha should
lead o a passi e good in luence on o he s a es and hus change hem. Isola ionism
hus s ands o he ac ha he Uni ed S a es ades and main ains ela ions wi h
o he s a es bu has no o icial alliances (Kau man 2013, p. 6, 17). Empi ically,
isola ionism held he discu si e hegemony p io o Wood ow Wilson’s idealism and
ul ima ely los i s hegemony wi h he Uni ed S a es’s en y o WWII (Dueck 2020,
p. 8).5In he con ex o he Russia–Uk aine wa , isola ionism means minimal U.S.
engagemen , ad oca ing o no new NATO membe s o U.S. commi men s o he
alliance (o e en ques ioning i ), as well as opposing sanc ions on Russia and aid o
Uk aine. A gumen s poin o high cos s and he p io i y o domes ic ma e s, ci ing
na ional in e es .
In con as , in e na ionalism and ealism a e ex o e ed o eign policies ha see
he Uni ed S a es as he “leade o he ee wo ld” (Ba e o and O’B yan 2014,
p. 180). Acco dingly, he coun y has a esponsibili y as leade in he in e na ional
sys em, which en ails a p ojec ion o hei own “excep ionalism.” The goal is con-
side ed o be o ac i ely change he wo ld acco ding o he U.S.’ own example,
which can also be achie ed h ough (mili a y) in e en ion. These wo DFs pa ly
d aw on he same iden i y elemen s bu di e in hei ecommenda ions o ac ion.
In e na ionalism, o example, a emp s o achie e a libe al wo ld o de based on
he U.S. sys em h ough coope a ion and mul ila e al e o s (Wi kop e al. 2008,
p. 257). I ocuses on ins i u ion-building in he in e na ional sys em and has been
p esen in U.S. o eign policy since 1919 (Cox and S okes 2012, p. 34). Fo he
Russia–Uk aine wa , his means upholding he libe al in e na ional o de , suppo -
ing NATO as pa o said o de , iewing Russia as a h ea o in e na ional o de , and
iewing Uk aine as de ending i and i s libe al alues. The e o e, ecommenda ions
include he p omo ion o (new) commi men s o NATO as well as new membe s,
sanc ions on Russia, and mili a y/ inancial aid o Uk aine.
Realism, in con as , suppo s unila e al in e en ion in in e na ional ela ions
and elies on con lic o ad ance na ional in e es s (Wi kop e al. 2008, p. 258). I
s ands o unila e al ac ion and eliance on U.S. mili a y sup emacy (Cox and S okes
2012, p. 34). When looking a he his o ical discou se in he Republican Pa y, one
sees ha , o e all, his DF has been he mos p e alen , bu he e ha e been ongoing
deba es. Colin Dueck (2020) speaks o h ee di e en ac ions wi hin he GOP: non-
in e en ion, hawkish o ha dline unila e alism, and conse a i e in e na ionalism,
which co espond o he DFs. They a e all based on wha he calls “conse a i e
na ionalism,” and hei in e play has shaped o eign policy hough in he GOP since
WWI (Dueck 2020, pp. 2–3). Du ing and a e he Cold Wa , Republican o eign
policy discou se was mos ly in o med by ealism. Howe e , he DF was spli in o
5While “isola ionism” is mos common in he li e a u e, some also use he e ms “unila e alis ” o “na-
ionalis .”
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84 E. Riege
wha is o en e e ed o as conse a i e ealism (e.g., Hen y Kissinge ’s Realpoli-
ik) and neoconse a ism, which “emphasizes he mo al necessi y o dis inguishing
be ween he o ces o good and e il in he in e na ional a ena, he impo ance o
main aining U.S. mili a y p edominance, a g ea e willingness o use o ce, and deep
dis us o in e na ional law and ins i u ions” (Khong 2008, p. 252). This spli can
also be obse ed in he discou se on he Russia–Uk aine wa , wi h conse a i e
ealis s seeing a “New Cold Wa ” and lapsing in o hose ca ego ies, whe e Uk aine
alls unde Russia’s ealm o in luence and China is he new “ac ual” ad e sa y
o be con ained. Thus, p oposals include ocusing NATO on he Paci ic, opposing
aid (especially mili a y) o Uk aine, and sanc ioning Russia, bu doing so in o de
o se e he Uni ed S a es’ own in e es o selling gas. Neoconse a ism, on he
o he hand, wan s o uphold U.S. (mili a y) sup emacy, which is being con es ed by
Russia’s in asion. Acco dingly, Russia should be con ained and weakened h ough
sanc ions, NATO s eng hened (wi h commi men s and new membe s), and Uk aine
suppo ed, as bo h help in p ojec ing U.S. powe .
As is e iden om hese di e se DFs, he e a e as ly di e ing iews on o eign
policy e en wi hin he GOP i sel . Acco dingly, de ia ion om o adhe ence o he
bipa isan consensus can be disce ned by discou se analysis.
3 Discou se Analysis
The e is a b oad consensus in he li e a u e ha Donald T ump ma kedly de ia ed
om ( o eign) policy posi ions p e iously p e alen wi hin he Republican Pa y.
While con es a ions exis ed be o e T ump, hey we e b ough o he o e on o
he GOP discou se wi h his p esidency (Dück e al. 2020; Ikenbe y 2017; Spe ling
and Webbe 2019). Following discou se-bound iden i y heo y, T ump’s di e ging
beha iou in i sel should ha e had an impac on discou se and na ional iden i y,
e en i i u ns ou o be an unsus ainable o eign policy change no oo ed in
iden i y change. This is why T ump’s as well as he GOP’s posi ions p io o he
Russian in asion will be d awn om p e ious li e a u e and supplemen ed wi h
p ima y sou ces. Bo h will se e as e e ence poin s and will be jux aposed wi h
he discou se analysis o he Republican Pa y a e Feb ua y 2022. Conside ing
he ocus on he Russia–Uk aine wa as a o ma i e e en , I will be looking a he
aspec s o main aining alliances (i.e., commi ing o and s eng hening NATO) and
cu bing i als’ in luence (i.e., dealing wi h Russia’s expansionis beha iou ), as well
as posi ions and s a emen s ega ding Uk aine (i s so e eign y, e i o ial in eg i y,
inancial/mili a y aid, and possible u u e in NATO, e c.), because while his does
no esemble pa o he BFPC, i is clea ly en wined wi h cons aining Russia.
Rega ding he ma e ial, he discou se analysis mainly consis s o cong essional
eco ds be ween Feb ua y 2022 and June 20236(spanning he 117 h and 118 h
6Du ing his ime he e we e 103 bills in oduced con aining men ions o NATO, 318 con aining men-
ions o Russia, and 379 con aining men ions o Uk aine. This ma e ial will be supplemen ed by anecdo al
deba es om Feb ua y 2023 o Feb ua y 2024 (especially ega ding budge a y decisions), as well as s a e-
men s om he GOP p ima ies, o ind indica ions ega ding he sus ainabili y o discu si e hegemony.
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A Manchu ian Candida e? The GOP’s Discou se on he Russian Wa in Uk aine 91
in asion o Uk aine is wholly unjus i ied and dange ous. Bu Ame ica should NOT
lu ch o wa . Ou mili a y does no belong o he wo ld. Ame ican in e es s abo e
all” (Caw ho n 2022d). This shows a s ong na ionalis con ic ion and can be seen
as an a gumen a ibu ed o isola ionism.
On Ap il 7, wo ac s ega ding sanc ions on Russia o i s in asion o Uk aine we e
deli e ed o he House om he Sena e—whe e hey had passed 100-0 (U.S. Go e n-
men Publishing O ice 2022e, p. 42). This again shows an ex ao dina y bipa isan
consensus in he Sena e. In he House, howe e , a small numbe o Rep esen a i es
o ed agains hem. H.R. 7108—An ac o suspend no mal ade ela ions ea men
o he Russian Fede a ion and he Republic o Bela us also had been s alled in he
Sena e o 3 weeks p io o his, due o conce ns o se e al Republicans in connec-
ion o he b oadening o he Magni sky Ac (DeBonis 2022). The h ee GOP House
membe s who o ed agains his legisla ion hen lis ed simila a gumen s, ea ing
an inc ease o P esiden Biden’s powe o b ing sanc ions agains ac o s o hu-
man igh s iola ions (U.S. Go e nmen Publishing O ice 2022e, pp. 21–22). This
shows ha he de ia ing o es s emmed om a sys emic con lic be ween he ex-
ecu i e and legisla i e b anches and did no cons i u e a con es a ion o he BFPC.
The case is sligh ly di e en o he second ac passed ha day: H.R.6968—An
ac o p ohibi he impo a ion o ene gy p oduc s o he Russian Fede a ion, and
o o he pu poses. He e, nine Rep esen a i es o ed agains i s passing, including
wo Democ a s (U.S. Go e nmen Publishing O ice 2022e, pp. 22–23). The Re-
publicans’ a gumen s agains hese sanc ions ep esen a na ionalis iew mos ly
conce ned wi h ising uel p ices. Fo example, Rep esen a i e Gae z (R-Flo ida)
a gued ha “[...] i has become inc easingly clea o e he pas se e al weeks ha
sanc ions ha e no de e ed bad Russian beha io . They ha e, howe e , con ibu ed
o ising uel p ices and in la ion, which a e con inuing o c ush my ellow No hwes
Flo idians.The Biden Adminis a ion has no plan o deal wi h he consequences o
hese sanc ions a home [...]” (Gae z 2022a). Thus, he easons o opposing he
sanc ions can be subsumed unde isola ionism, b eaking wi h he BFPC o cu bing
Russia’s in luence. Two o he bills we e passed by he House in May 2022, deal-
ing wi h sanc ions on Russian go e nmen o icials and p ohibi ing ce ain inancial
ansac ions wi h Russia and Bela us. Bo h ecei ed wo “no” o es— om Rep e-
sen a i es G eene (R-Geo gia) and Massie (R-Ken ucky), who a e membe s o he
HFC (U.S. Go e nmen Publishing O ice 2022h, pp. 39–40).
Thus, while he ac o o ing agains he sanc ions de ia es om he bipa isan
consensus, only a minuscule numbe o Republicans does so. The isola ionis DF
is clea ly in he mino i y. This all poin s o a a he in ac BFPC (and i s discu -
si e hegemony) ega ding sanc ions on Russia, which is also in line wi h p e ious
li e a u e on he issue (e.g., Bölle 2023;Tama2023).
Now a look a he o he side o he coin: suppo ing Uk aine, which can indi-
ec ly impede Russia. Again, he e we e se e al o es agains ac s aimed a p o id-
ing Uk aine wi h humani a ian, inancial, and mili a y aid. Sena o Paul s alled as -
acking o assis ance in May 2022. In an op-ed, he explained ha he Uni ed S a es
should no ake Uk aine as an ally o aid hem agains Russia, bu a he ha Uk aine
should assume neu ali y. Fo him, i is a ques ion o espec ing he sphe es o in-
luence o g ea powe s and o hen use his o e o diploma ic nego ia ions wi h
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92 E. Riege
Russia (Paul 2022). This lea es he ealm o he BFPC and is in line wi h conse -
a i e ealism. H.Res.7691—Addi ional Uk aine Supplemen al App op ia ions Ac
s ill passed he House and Sena e wi h unusually high bipa isan suppo o bud-
ge a y legisla ion (U.S. Go e nmen Publishing O ice 2022g, i). Sena o G assley
(R-Iowa), while endo sing he bill, c i icised P esiden Biden’s hesi a ion ega ding
Russia as well as insu icien bo de secu i y, showcasing he neoconse a i e DF
(U.S. Go e nmen Publishing O ice 2022i, p. 41).
In he House o Rep esen a i es, he e we e e en mo e Republican oices agains
aid. When Cong ess o ed on he iscal yea ’s budge —including inancial aid o
Uk aine—in Ma ch 2022, he HFC demanded o deba e he Uk aine budge sepa-
a ely. While hey asked he Republican Pa y o change app op ia ions measu es in
se e al poin s, hey especially ocused on ex ac ing aid o Uk aine om he o e all
bill o deba e on i ex ensi ely, as can be seen by hei p oposed sepa a e bill on aid
o Uk aine (Sco 2022). House F eedom Caucus membe Rep esen a i e Roy (R-
Texas) made his clea on X ( hen known as Twi e ) by s a ing, “[...] Rep Roy is
p oud o join his @ eedomcaucus e o o demand Cong ess: (1) Vo e and DEBATE
Uk aine $ SEPARATELY [...]”(Roy2022). Such a measu e would no only s all he
ac ions by p olonging he p ocess, bu he in en o deba ing on he aid also sugges s
i s p obable educ ion. This is especially likely in ligh o he HFC’s ex ensi e iscal
conse a i eness and na ionalis ic s andpoin s (e en compa ed o he gene al Re-
publican Pa y; Desil e 2023). Addi ionally, he e we e se e al commen s by HFC
membe s suppo ing his assump ion. Fo example, Rep esen a i e Jo dan (R-Ohio)
wee ed, “Mo e money o Uk aine while baby o mula is ou o s ock o Ame icans?
Vo ed No. [...]”(Jo dan2022), and Ma Gae z demanded “No mo e BILLIONS o
Uk aine!” (Gae z 2022b). Caw ho n called high inancial aid o Uk aine (and o he
coun ies in gene al) in o ques ion in a simila ashion, saying, “Imagine how he
Uni ed S a es would h i e i he go e nmen spen OUR esou ces on he Ame ican
people ins ead o sending BILLIONS o OUR money o o he coun ies” (Caw ho n
2022c). Gae z also spoke ou agains wha he calls a “dange ous bipa isan consen-
sus on Uk aine,” c i icising high inancial aid o Uk aine in Cong essional deba es:
“Las nigh , his House app o ed $ 40 billion o Uk aine as Ame ican amilies go
wi hou baby o mula. To pu ha in con ex , Biden’s budge calls o $ 15.3 bil-
lion o Cus oms and Bo de P o ec ion, so appa en ly, Uk aine is mo e han wice
as impo an as ou homeland” (U.S. Go e nmen Publishing O ice 2022h, p. 8).
Howe e , he HFC’s le e o he Republican leade ship also s a es suppo o a ban
on Russian oil and gas, ci ing ene gy independence as hei goal (Roy 2022). Thus,
he e a e again s ong na ionalis a gumen s isible in he discou se ha ep esen
isola ionism, as some o hei policy ecommenda ions de ia e om he bipa isan
consensus. The s ance on sanc ions o Russia, howe e , esembles conse a i e
ealism, showing he eme gen discu si e alliance be ween he wo DFs.
In connec ion o his, we can also ind ins ances whe e bigge pa s o he Re-
publican Pa y disag ee wi h he aid p o ided o Uk aine agains Russia. The e is,
o example, H.Res.7081—Uk aine comp ehensi e deb paymen elie ac o 2022,
which was also passed by he House in May 2022 bu ecei ed 56 “no” o es—all
om GOP membe s (U.S. Go e nmen Publishing O ice 2022h, pp. 38–39). This
indica es a g ea e schism wi hin he GOP conce ning how a he Uni ed S a es
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A Manchu ian Candida e? The GOP’s Discou se on he Russian Wa in Uk aine 93
should go in impeding Russia and, hus, ques ioning hei o e all adhe ence o he
BFPC. The cong essional esolu ion d a on ending all mili a y and inancial aid
o Uk aine ha was ini ia ed by Gae z wi h se e al o he HFC membe s and in o-
duced o he House in Feb ua y 2023 is also in line wi h his a ionale (U.S. House o
Rep esen a i es 2023). Conce ning he s a us o C imea, Gae z commen ed ha he
would “ a he go o wa o p o ec Mona ch Bu e ly habi a han o deciphe which
dude in a ack sui ge s o ule C imea.” His easoning o his was ha “[ ]he case
o Ame ica’s in e es is a mo e clea wi h he bu e ly” (Gae z 2022d). Mo e-
o e , some e en ques ioned he epu a ion o he Uk ainian a he han he Russian
go e nmen , such as Caw ho n, who s a ed, “Remembe ha Zelensky is a hug [...]
[ ]emembe ha he Uk ainian go e nmen is inc edibly co up and i is inc edi-
bly e il and i has been pushing woke ideologies” (Caw ho n ci ed in Roge s 2022).
Such s a emen s do no wo k owa ds cu bing Russian in luence and could, hus,
be iewed as a depa u e om he bipa isan consensus. While Caw ho n’s poin is
unclea , Gae z’s s a emen undoub edly alls in o he isola ionis DF.
Addi ionally, he passing o H.Res.2617—Consolida ed App op ia ions Ac was
s alled and e o mula ed se e al imes be o e being passed by Cong ess in Decem-
be 2022—pa ly due o he unds o Uk aine aid i con ains (U.S. Go e nmen
Publishing O ice 2022l, m). Since he bill inco po a es nume ous legisla ions, his
in i sel canno be seen as a con es a ion o he BFPC. Howe e , he aid o Uk aine
is men ioned as he i s eason o opposi ion du ing he deba e by Rep esen a i e
and membe o he House Commi ee on Fo eign A ai s Bu che (R-Tennessee):
“I ise in s ong opposi ion o H.R. 2617. [...] Wha a e we spending Ame icans’ ha d-
ea ned money on[,] you ask, M . Speake ? [...] O e $ 45 billion o Uk aine, when
Eu ope should be ca ying he bu den o hese cos s. Tha is $100 billion o al. [...]
Tha wo ks ou o abou $200 million pe cong essional dis ic , M . Speake . I won-
de wha we could ha e spen ha on back in eas Tennessee” (U.S. Go e nmen
Publishing O ice 2022m, p. 3). This, again, e lec s he isola ionis DF.
Howe e , one needs o ecall he e ha la ge pa s o he Republican pa y—especi-
ally in he Sena e—a e in suppo o aiding Uk aine agains Russia. This can be seen
no only om he highly bipa isan o es bu also om esolu ions in oduced o he
Sena e by GOP membe s, such as he S.Res.549—Suppo ing he ans e o ai c a
and ai de ense sys ems o he a med o ces o Uk aine, which was in oduced by
Sena o G aham and cosponso ed by 11 Republican sena o s, as well as H.Res.991,
in oduced by Rep esen a i e Cole (R-Oklahoma) wi h 20 Republican cosponso s
and demanding simila ac ions (U.S. Go e nmen Publishing O ice 2022b, p. 35,
2022c, p. 49). Bo h esolu ions con ain a gumen s belonging o he neoconse a-
i e DF and uphold he BFPC. Simila ly, S.Res.3522—Uk aine Democ acy De ense
Lend–Lease Ac o 2022, which had been in oduced by Sena o Co nyn (R-Texas)
in Janua y 2022, passed Cong ess in Ap il wi h o e whelming bipa isan suppo .
The e we e se e al speeches by GOP legisla o s in i s suppo , hough Rep esen a i e
Reschen hale (R-Pennsyl ania) s ill uses na ionalis ic a gumen s when he b ings up
compe ing domes ic issues: “[...] while I suppo S. 3522 and, o cou se, he people
o Uk aine, I belie e his is a missed oppo uni y o help he Ame ican people [...]”
(U.S. Go e nmen Publishing O ice 2022 , p. 11). So, o e all neoconse a ism is
mixed wi h isola ionis language.
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94 E. Riege
While we can obse e an o e all e u n o he bipa isan consensus and gene al
bipa isanship on he issue o cu bing Russia’s in luence in he i s ew mon hs a e
he Russian in asion o Uk aine, he e seems o be a g owing a igue—especially
ega ding inancial and mili a y aid o Uk aine. This phenomenon was displayed
p ominen ly a he Conse a i e Poli ical Ac ion Con e ence ha ook place in Ma ch
2023. The e, many o he p ominen speake s (no ably, T ump himsel , G eene,
Gae z, S e e Bannon, and Go e no DeSan is [R-Flo ida]) spoke ou agains con-
inued aid o Uk aine, while o he s known o hei p e ious suppo o he BFPC
in hese ins ances (e.g., Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley) simply a oided he subjec
(Smi h 2023). I is also no ewo hy ha House Speake McCa hy was able o be
elec ed as such by he GOP in Janua y 2023 only a e he made concessions o mem-
be s o he HFC, including “ ha Republicans will no w i e a ‘blank cheque’ o
Uk aine” (Smi h 2023), which shows he ac ions’ g owing in luence on he pa y.
Du ing he Republican p ima ies, Vi ek Ramaswamy e en sugges ed, “Hun e Biden
go a $5 million b ibe om Uk aine, ha ’s why we’ e sending $200 billion back o
ha same coun y” (Allen 2023). Addi ionally, Nikki Haley was he only aspi an
in he p ima ies a guing o con inued signi ican suppo o Uk aine. Fu he in-
dica ion o a pe sis en bu waning bipa isan consensus is H.Res.8035—Uk aine
Secu i y Supplemen al App op ia ions Ac , which was passed by he House in Ap il
2024 (311-112), wi h he Republican Pa y spli in hal ega ding suppo and op-
posi ion (U.S. Go e nmen Publishing O ice 2024, pp. 60–61).
Thus, he subjec s o Russia and Uk aine (and, in e y small pa s, NATO) e-
eal a di ision o he conse a i e ealis DF. I is now spli among wo compe ing
discu si e alliances: he bipa isan consensus (BFPC) also sha ed by he in e na-
ionalis DF s. T ump’s di e ging a gumen s also sha ed by he isola ionis DF,
which can be summa ised as “Ame ica Fi s .” This shows inc easing con es a ion o
he bipa isan consensus and poin s o a g owing s uggle o discu si e hegemony
be ween BFPC and Ame ica Fi s . Fu he , while he s uggle can be pa ly asc ibed
o pa isan poli ics, many o he a gumen s used poin o a con es a ion o na ional
iden i y wi hin he GOP.
6Conclusion
To conclude, a ( e)s eng hened bipa isan consensus can be ound in he discou se
on Russia due o an inc eased uni y a e he in asion. Only a ew oices in he GOP
de ia e om his, and e en hen, hei a gumen s do no always ollow T ump’s
posi ions bu ci e o he un ela ed objec ions and esemble he isola ionis and con-
se a i e ealis DFs. Whe he his uni y is ac ually due o he ex e nal shock o
he Russia–Uk aine wa is ha d o disce n and will p obably be e ealed only o e
ime, especially wi h he elec ions in 2024. Fu he , main aining alliances in he
o m o suppo o NATO has seemed o ecei e e en less con es a ion in he Re-
publican Pa y a e Feb ua y 2022. These wo issues a e, he e o e, indica i e o
a s able sha ed iden i y, and he bipa isan consensus has (so a ) p o ed o be qui e
sus ainable, a imes e en in igo a ed in he wake o he Russian in asion.
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A Manchu ian Candida e? The GOP’s Discou se on he Russian Wa in Uk aine 95
The discou se ega ding aid o Uk aine, howe e , displays an inc easing amoun
o con es a ion o he BFPC, wi h a gumen s om isola ionism and conse a i e
ealism. I is no able ha he BFPC is mos ly con es ed by ank-and- ile GOP mem-
be s a he han by hose in o icial pa y posi ions. Since some o he de ia ion can
be explained by pa isan poli ics and s uggle o in luence be ween he b anches,
he discu si e hegemony o he bipa isan consensus appea s o be in ac , bu i s
sus ainabili y is con es ed by a new discu si e alliance. Such a g owing in apa y
spli be ween wo discu si e alliances (BFPC s. Ame ica Fi s ) shows he inc eas-
ing in ensi y o hei s uggle o discu si e hegemony. The u he de elopmen o
hese discu si e alliances (and especially he alignmen o conse a i e ealism) will
e eal he magni ude o he in apa y schism and he in e connec ed iden i y c isis
o he Republican Pa y. As such, he s ance on impeding Russia and suppo ing
Uk aine in his wa has eme ged as a di isi e issue o he Republican p ima ies
o he 2024 p esiden ial elec ion, and he e will be a con inued s uggle o hege-
mony be ween he DFs on his. The u u e e olu ion o he GOP discou se is, hus,
dependen on he nex elec ions and—in connec ion o his—on he de elopmen o
he HFC’s in luence on he pa y, i.e., whe he i s membe s a ain p ominen pa y
posi ions. Hence, mo e esea ch o he GOP discou se on hese issues is needed,
speci ically conce ning he de elopmen o na ional iden i y and he impac o he
2024 elec ions, o de e mine he sus ainabili y o discu si e hegemony mo e conclu-
si ely. So a , i seems as i he GOP does indeed all back in o i s p e ious BFPC
hegemony and, hus, esembles a Manchu ian candida e eco e ing om i s b ain-
washing ega ding Russia. The iden i y c isis isible wi hin he Republican Pa y
does seem o mi o he o e all pola isa ion in he Uni ed S a es.
Acknowledgemen s The au ho would like o hank E ica Simone Almeida Resende and Falk Os e -
mann, who p o ided hough ul eedback as discussan s o p e ious e sions o his pape , as well as he
anonymous e iewe s and he edi o s o his special issue o hei e y help ul commen s.
Con lic o in e es E. Riege decla es ha she has no compe ing in e es s.
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