Ho nung, Lukas J.; S öckmann, Nico
A icle — Published Ve sion
P o ec ionism in Disguise? EU An i-Dumping Measu es
Ta ge ing PRC I on and S eel P oduc s
Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Sp inge Na u e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ho nung, Lukas J.; S öckmann, Nico (2024) : P o ec ionism in Disguise? EU An i-
Dumping Measu es Ta ge ing PRC I on and S eel P oduc s, Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and
T ade, ISSN 1573-7012, Sp inge US, New Yo k, NY, Vol. 24, Iss. 1,
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P o ec ionism in Disguise? EU An i-Dumping Measu es
Ta ge ing PRC I on and S eel P oduc s
Lukas J. Ho nung1·Nico S öckmann1
Recei ed: 7 Augus 2023 / Re ised: 14 Oc obe 2024 / Accep ed: 20 No embe 2024 /
Published online: 28 Decembe 2024
© The Au ho (s) 2024
Abs ac
As dumping can ha m indus ies by dis o ing compe i ion, he Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion
holds he op ion o i s membe s o ake an i-dumping measu es. The Eu opean Union (EU)
esponds collec i ely o such h ea s and adjus s he supposedly dumped goods’ p ices h ough
a i s back o hei appa en “ ai ” alue. Some c i ics a gue hough ha he EU’s an i-
dumping measu es educe economic e iciency and a e ac ually p o ec ionism in disguise.
Ou analysis o EU an i-dumping measu es on Chinese i on and s eel p oduc s poin s ou
ha he “ ai ” alue is indeed ai . Using he augmen ed syn he ic con ol me hod, we show
ha he o al EU impo olume in he sanc ioned p oduc class emains cons an , he impo
olume om China a e in oducing he a i is signi ican ly educed, and he inc ease in o al
wo ld impo p ice is insigni ican . Resul s hus sugges ha supply om China is subs i u ed
h ough impo s o coun ies ou side he single ma ke and ha claims o p o ec ionism a e
la gely un ounded
Keywo ds An i-dumping ·Syn he ic con ol me hod ·Eu opean Union ·P o ec ionism ·
S eel
JEL Classi ica ion F13 ·F14 ·F53
1 In oduc ion
Indus ial policy can dis o unc ioning ma ke s by supplying hem wi h a i icially low-
cos p oduc s, commonly e e ed o as “dumping.” In ecen decades, he numbe o an i-
dumping measu es employed o coun e such policies has s eadily isen. These measu es
a e gene ally in ended o ensu e “ ai ” ma ke s unde he ules-based sys em o he Wo ld
T ade O ganiza ion. Ne e heless, hey can be exploi ed and u ned agains ee ma ke s
in a p o ec ionis manne (Bhagwa i 1988). The e ec i eness o he le ied a i s and hei
economic jus i ica ion has been ques ioned by economis s such as Messe lin (1996)and
Dea do (1989), who ha e labeled hem as a o m o “p o ec ionism in disguise.”
BLukas J. Ho nung
[email p o ec ed]
1Depa men o Economics and Social Sciences, Helmu -Schmid -Uni e si y, Hols enho weg 85,
Hambu g 22043, Ge many
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24 Page 2 o 31 Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24
Recen empi ical s udies on an i-dumping measu es ha e p ima ily ocused on hei e ec s
on i ms and labo ma ke s (e.g., Hakobyan 2018; Jabbou e al. 2019; de Souza and Li 2022).
In ligh o inc eased s a e suppo o domes ic indus ies—pa icula ly, bu no limi ed o, he
People’s Republic o China (PRC)— he economic jus i ica ion o an i-dumping measu es
equi es enewed a en ion. This pape ques ions he common label o p o ec ionism eiled
a ound hem, h ough an analysis o EU an i-dumping measu es on PRC i on and s eel
p oduc s.
F om a poli ical economy s andpoin , misuse o EU an i-dumping measu es o p o ec ion-
is pu poses may seem plausible. The i on and s eel indus y p o ides indispensable inpu s
o a wide ange o downs eam ma ke s, including, bu no limi ed, o de ense p oduc s. The
EU has seen i s global ma ke sha e in he i on and s eel indus y sh inking, while suppli-
e s om he PRC ha e inc eased p oduc ion capaci y. The ise o PRC s eel p oduce s has
been suppo ed by he s a e. Some migh a gue ha ano he o m o suppo is ound in he
an i-dumping measu es in oduced by he EU.
Examining claims o p o ec ionism in disguise equi es a ine dis inc ion be ween e ec s
ha p omo e ai ma ke s and hose ha ha m ee ma ke s. We p opose ha “ ai ” an i-
dumping measu es should dec ease he impo s om he a ge ed s a e bu lea e o e all
impo quan i ies and p ices la gely unchanged. This would indica e ha he a ge ed impo s
a e subs i u ed by o he expo e s, a he han unduly a o ed domes ic p oduce s.
Ou analysis builds upon coun e ac uals o impo lows and p ices, had no an i-dumping
measu e been in oduced. Speci ically, we examine he e ec o a i s on impo quan i-
ies om he PRC as well as o al impo quan i ies and p ices. We p ima ily employ he
Augmen ed Syn he ic Con ol Me hod by Ben-Michael e al. (2021). He e, a syn he ic coun-
e ac ual is buil by weigh ing a dono pool o una ec ed p oduc s. Po en ial impe ec
p e- ea men i is con olled o wi h idge eg ession. In addi ion, we apply he s agge ed
di e ence-in-di e ences app oach o Callaway and San ’Anna (2021) as a obus ness check.
Ou da ase includes annual da a om 1989 o he p esen on HS-6 p oduc s o he i on and
s eel sec ion. We also in oduce p oduc s o he nickel and coppe sec ions as a second dono
pool o imp o e obus ness.
We ind empi ical e idence ha poin s agains he allega ion o p o ec ionism in disguise.
While an i-dumping measu es educe impo s om he PRC, p oduc s om China a e sub-
s i u ed by impo s om o he coun ies a he han inc eased domes ic EU p oduc ion. The
PRC ade sha e p io o he a i s explains he a iabili y in impo p ices’ eac ion o he
in oduc ion o a i s. Fu he mo e, ou analysis o po en ial elabeling in hi d pa y coun-
ies indica es ha only limi ed a i e asion occu s. While he esul s lend some empi ical
economic suppo o he p e alen use o an i-dumping measu es by he Eu opean Union,
i is impo an o no e ha we only co e ed a speci ic indus y in ou pape . The p oposed
me hodology, howe e , migh also p o ide new insigh s on ma e s o an i-dumping wi h
espec o o he indus ies.
2 Indus ial Policy and he Legal Founda ion o An i-Dumping
Measu es
Fo bo h he Eu opean Union and he People’s Republic o China, he i on and s eel indus y
holds immense s a egic signi icance. The de ense indus y, along wi h he manu ac u ing and
cons uc ion sec o s, is among he many downs eam indus ies ha a e dependen on i on
and s eel p oduc s. In ecen decades, we ha e wi nessed a shi in p oduc ion capaci y away
om he USA and Eu ope owa d China and o he eme ging economies. To some ex en , his
123
Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24 Page 3 o 31 24
shi has been made possible by la ge-scale go e nmen subsidies as well as ou igh s a e
owne ship. Inc eased p oduc ion capaci y has aced a s agna ing global demand, leading
o signi ican o e capaci y in he global i on and s eel ma ke (P ice e al. 2016). This has
been accompanied by educed p o i ma gins, h ea ening companies in ma ke s wi h less
go e nmen suppo , such as he USA and he Eu opean Single Ma ke . The EU alleges ha
many Chinese i on and s eel p oduc s a e dumped and hus dis o compe i ion.
The Eu opean Commission (2013) highligh s he necessi y o Eu ope o emain an impo -
an s eel-p oducing egion o economic, social, and en i onmen al easons, as well as o
secu i y o supply. In he bloc, he sec o di ec ly p o ides o 330,000 jobs, wi h a o al o 2.6
million EU jobs ei he di ec ly and indi ec ly p o ided o induced, acco ding o Ox o d Eco-
nomics (2017). His o ically, he EU has no been a aid o employ policies o sa egua d he
ma ke . Ta i s and impo quo as we e used in he 1960 s o p o ec he indus y om Eas e n
Eu opean compe i ion (Zu s assen 2022; Spie enbu g and Poide in 1993). Mo eo e , du ing
he pe iod o global o e capaci y in he 1970s and 1980s, he Eu opean Communi y in o-
duced an i-dumping p o isions and allowed na ional subsidies o he sec o (Zu s assen
2022). Al hough he Eu opean i on and s eel ma ke has been la gely libe alized since hen,
ecen an i-dumping measu es agains China and o he s a es could be seen as a e u n o
p o ec i e policies.
S a ing in he ea ly 2000s, he i on and s eel indus y in he PRC en e ed a phase o
emendous g ow h. This de elopmen was unded by signi ican s a e in es men , including
suppo o s a e-owned en e p ises (SOEs) and ene gy subsidies o p i a e and s a e com-
panies alike. Mo eo e , he accession o he WTO opened o eign ma ke s o Chinese s eel
p oduc s, ueling he expo o ien a ion o he indus y (Dong e al. 2019). By 2015, when
many an i-dumping measu es we e in oduced by he EU, he capaci y u iliza ion in Chinese
s eel mills s ood a only 70.5% (B un 2016). The inc easing o e capaci y pe mea ed o global
ma ke s, which pu p essu e on China o pu sue supply-side e o m (Choi e al. 2022). The
esul ing ac ions by he Chinese go e nmen , howe e , had limi ed e ec s on hei ou pu ,
which s ands a 52.9% o global p oduc ion olume, dwa ing he Eu opean Union which
accoun s o 7% (Wo ld S eel Associa ion 2022).
Cu en ly, indus ial policy in he Eu opean Union’s i on and s eel indus y ocuses on
p o ec ing he domes ic ma ke om (a i icially) low-cos o eign p oduce s. On he o he
hand, s a e suppo in China has p opelled i s i on and s eel indus y o a posi ion o global
leade ship. This has been accompanied by excess capaci y in s eel mills, esul ing in alleged
dumping p ices. The EU has eac ed wi h ade emedies, bu he ques ion emains whe he
hey a e indeed gea ed owa d sa egua ding ai ma ke s—o i hey se e a p o ec ionis
agenda.
Answe ing ou esea ch ques ion equi es conside a ion o he legal ounda ion o an i-
dumping measu es. In gene al, hey a e egula ed by he Gene al Ag eemen o Ta i s and
T ade (GATT). The g owing use o hese measu es in ecen decades has been obse ed
by Ha igan and Vandenbussche (2013), who c edi he ela i e speed and simplici y o he
measu e compa ed o o he WTO emedies. Dumping is de ined in he GATT (1947)as
he in oduc ion o p oduc s by a o eign coun y in o he comme ce o ano he a less han
he “no mal” alue. While such ac ions a e gene ally no o bidden, a ec ed coun ies a e
pe mi ed o de end domes ic ma ke s by imposing le ies h ough an i-dumping measu es.
The Ag eemen on Implemen a ion o A icle VI o he U uguay GATT (An i-Dumping
Ag eemen ) speci ies ha hei implemen a ion equi es a o mal in es iga ion ha ollows
he me hodology se ou by A icle VI.
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24 Page 4 o 31 Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24
Acco dingly, he imposi ion o an i-dumping measu es by he EU is go e ned by GATT
ules. A e he iling o a o mal complain by ele an p oduce s o an indus y associa ion,
he Eu opean Commission e iews he e idence and decides whe he an in es iga ion is
me i ed. In gene al, i mus be demons a ed ha expo p ices o he coun y a ge ed by a i s
a e below hei domes ic p ices. As p ices in he PRC may also be dis o ed by go e nmen
in e en ions, he expo p ices o Chinese supplie s a e compa ed o p ices o cos s in a
hi d (su oga e) ma ke economy. While he EU app oach is no sanc ioned by gene al WTO
law, i d aws on Sec ion 15 o he PRC’s accession p o ocol, which was phased ou in 2016.
F om he legal pe spec i e o he Eu opean Union, he sec ion emained alid e en a e he
phase-ou , which was challenged by China in he dispu e se lemen body. Al hough he chai
o he body ag eed o China’s eques o a suspension, he e has been no o icial uling on
he gene al legali y o he con inued applica ion (Du 2022).
To add ess his challenge, he Eu opean Union amended he Basic An i-Dumping Reg-
ula ion in 2017. This amendmen gi es he Commission he powe o de e mine whe he
he domes ic p ices o any coun y a e a ec ed by signi ican ma ke dis o ions. Domes ic
p ices a e hen calcula ed by compa ison wi h a simila ma ke -o ien ed economy. While
his app oach is cu en ly employed by he Eu opean Union, he legali y con inues o be
deba ed among schola s (Du 2022; Tie je and Sache 2018). F om an economic pe spec i e,
such an app oach can be p one o miscalcula ions, as he a ailabili y o esou ces and hus
he p ice o inpu ma e ials, as well as ene gy cos s, he labo ma ke , and nume ous o he
ac o s in luencing domes ic p ices may di e d as ically be ween coun ies. Mo eo e , he
legal de ini ion o dumping appea s a he ague and migh no always mee he necessa y
h eshold o a ma ke -dis o ing p ac ice ha economically jus i ies a speci ically a ge ed
a i .
3 Empi ical Analysis o An i-Dumping Measu es
The p e alence o an i-dumping measu es has esul ed in inc easing schola ly a en ion. Lim-
i ed conside a ion, howe e , has been placed on he issue o p o ec ionism in disguise. Simila
o ou esea ch design, s udies a e o en ocused on indi idual p oduc s. Mo eo e , a wide
ange o li e a u e has co e ed i m- and labo -speci ic e ec s. We p esen he g a i y ame-
wo k and a di e ence-in-di e ences me hodology as sui able app oaches o ou empi ical
analysis. Conside ing hei espec i e s eng hs and weaknesses, we p opose he Augmen ed
Syn he ic Con ol Me hod, a ecen ad ancemen o classic di e ence-in-di e ences, as a
sui able me hodology o ou explo a ion o p o ec ionism in disguise.
The legal de ini ion o dumping appea s a he ague and migh no always each he
necessa y h eshold o a ma ke -dis o ing p ac ice ha jus i ies a speci ically a ge ed a i .
Economis s such as Messe lin (1996) and Dea do (1989) aised wo ies ha an i-dumping
measu es a e ac ually p o ec ionis , bu ollowed a mo e policy-o ien ed case s udy app oach
ins ead o an empi ical in es iga ion on ma ke s a e an i-dumping measu es had been in o-
duced. Messe lin (1996) a gues ha an i-dumping measu es a e only economically ad isable
in si ua ions o p eda o y p icing and “s a egic” dumping. Th ough p eda o y p icing, p od-
uc s a e dumped o achie e a monopolis ic posi ion h ough a p ice educ ion ha d i es o he
p oduce s ou o he ma ke , in o de o aise p ices la e . The p ocess o s a egic dumping
bene i s om a si ua ion ha is desc ibed by Ma shall (1879) as ex e nal economies o scale.
Th ough ini ial p o ec ionism and subsidies, a o eign coun y can nu u e an indus y and
achie e cos ad an ages by aising ou pu . While he o eign indus y is now able o sell a
compa ably cheap p ices in e na ionally, he domes ic indus y is up he a e age cos cu e,
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Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24 Page 5 o 31 24
as i is no allowed ma ke access o he o eign coun y and hus unable o achie e simila
e u ns on scale. Whe he p eda o y p icing o s a egic dumping is indeed p esen poses a
g ea challenge o economis s. Fo example, o eign i ms migh sell hei s ock jus abo e
ma ginal cos o educe o e capaci y and he eby educe losses. Especially in a ma ke shaped
by wo ldwide o e capaci y, his is ob iously an economically sound mo e bu ha d o dis-
inguish om p eda o y p icing. As insigh on ma ke and indi idual i m beha io inside
he PRC is ha d o a hom and challenging o e i y, we e ain om analysis on Chinese
beha io ; ins ead, we s i e o e idence whe he he EU an i-dumping measu es ha e educed
economic e iciency wi hin he Eu opean ma ke .
Many esea ch designs e ol e a ound he e ec o an i-dumping measu es on indi idual
p oduc s and commodi ies. In gene al, hei impac can be expec ed as ade des uc ion and
di e sion in he a ec ed coun y, as well as ade de lec ion and dep ession in hi d-pa y
ma ke s (Bown and C owley 2006). Among o he s, empi ical e idence o hese ends has
been p esen ed by Asche (2001), e iewing he e ec s o US an i-dumping measu es on
No wegian salmon h ough compa ison wi h he impo ma ke s o he EU and Japan and
u he by Hakobyan (2018) in a s udy on EU an i-dumping measu es agains aluminum oil
om A menia, B azil, and China.
Mixed esul s ha e been p oduced by s udies on he labo and i m e ec s o an i-dumping
measu es. Posi i e employmen e ec s o B azil’s an i-dumping measu es in he p o ec ed
sec o s a e un eiled by de Souza and Li (2022). Bown e al. (2021), on he o he hand, ound
no e idence o a posi i e impac on employmen in p o ec ed indus ies, conside ing US an i-
dumping measu es agains China. Jabbou e al. (2019) sugges ed a nega i e employmen
e ec on bo h EU p oduce s and impo e s, wi h posi i e e ec s on he emaining Chinese
expo e s, hus aising doub s abou he e ec i eness o a i s. Thei s udy also indica es
ha he bene i s o du ies only ex end o he leas p oduc i e impo -compe ing companies.
Mo eo e , Felbe may and Sandkamp (2020) poin ed ou ha an i-dumping measu es hu
a ec ed Chinese expo e s, in pa icula smalle i ms.
While hese s udies o e aluable insigh s, hey do no add ess ou b oade inqui y in o
whe he an i-dumping measu es con ibu e o he es ablishmen o “ ai ma ke s” o unde -
mine he p inciples o he “ ee ma ke .” In es iga ing he ma ke eac ion o a i s p esen s
an empi ical challenge. The majo i y o s udies on he impac o an i-dumping measu es ely
on ei he g a i y app oaches o di e ence-in-di e ences me hodology.
The heo e ical ounda ion o he g a i y me hodology has made i a popula ool in in e -
na ional ade analysis. The e o e, i has also been used in s udies on an i-dumping measu es.
A comp ehensi e explo a ion was p esen ed by Egge and Nelson (2011), who analyzed he
e ec o an i-dumping measu es on global ade pa e ns. Co e ing a simila scope, Van-
denbussche and Zana di (2010) ound some e idence o a educ ion o o e all impo s due
o he spillo e e ec s o an i-dumping measu es. A ecen ad ancemen was p esen ed by
Nagengas and Yo o (2023) wi h he Ex ended Two-Way Fixed E ec s (ETWFE) analy-
sis, which is in eg a ed in o a g a i y model. S a ing om he ETWFE es ima o o iginally
p oposed by Woold idge (2021,2023), hei con ibu ion allows o a he e ogenei y- obus
applica ion o he classic s uc u al g a i y model. In s agge ed se ings, howe e , a po en ial
bias a ises om conside ing no -ye - ea ed i ems in he con ol g oup. Like o he g a i y
models, his me hod assumes ade lows based on pa ame ic speci ica ions. Among o he
condi ions, La ch and Yo o (2016) speci y ha an es ima ion o supply elas ici y in he
a ge ed ma ke s is necessa y o eliable esul s. Gi en he un eliable da a in he case o he
PRC, his p o es di icul . Addi ionally, es ima ion biases may a ise om ou g anula ocus
on singula p oduc s, and he p e alen indus ial policy in he i on and s eel sec o can dis o
pa ame e s.
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24 Page 6 o 31 Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24
Many s udies on an i-dumping measu es ha e used a di e ence-in-di e ences me hod,
as he le ied a i s can be conside ed policy ea men s on speci ic p oduc s. Al hough hey
lack he heo e ical ounda ion o he g a i y amewo k, hei empi ical applica ion has been
p o en as obus in a wide ange o p e ious s udies. The pa simonious design as well as he
abili y o cap u e he e ogenei y a e key ac o s in hei popula i y. In an applica ion o a classic
di e ence-in-di e ences me hodology, Cheng e al. (2021) demons a ed ade des uc ion
and de lec ion in hei esea ch on US an i-dumping measu es agains China. Closely ela ed
o ou app oach is an analysis by Sandkamp (2020), who s udied he e ec s o EU an i-
dumping measu es wi h he 2004 enla gemen as a na u al expe imen se ing. Di e ence-
in-di e ences me hods, howe e , a e no wi hou sho comings. They o en su e om la ge
p e- ea men di e ences be ween obse ed alues and he coun e ac ual. Imp o ing p e-
ea men i usually in ol es he d opping o inpu s om he dono pool, aising conce ns
abou selec i e a iable picking. Addi ionally, hey ely on he pa allel ends assump ion.
While ou empi ical esul s do es ablish pa allel ends, his limi s hei applica ion o o he
p oduc s. Remedies o bo h p oblems exis in he con empo a y di e ence-in-di e ences
li e a u e; howe e , al e na i e app oaches ha a e less p one o hese conce ns a e a ailable.
The augmen ed syn he ic con ol me hod (ASCM) by Ben-Michael e al. (2021)o e san
imp o emen o e he classic di e ence-in-di e ences es ima o . ASCM compa es he ac ual
obse able alues wi h a coun e pa ha esembles a si ua ion wi hou a i s, buil om non-
a ec ed p oduc s wi hin he same ade pai ing. Compa ed o he di e ence-in-di e ences
me hodology, ASCM assigns indi idual weigh s o he dono pool based on p edic i e powe .
This enhances he analysis o he e ogeneous da ase s, such as he i on and s eel ade da a
analyzed in his pape . Fu he mo e, he weigh ing algo i hm o ASCM elimina es selec ion
bias, and p e- ea men i is imp o ed by applying idge eg ession. ASCM also includes
a buil -in sensi i i y analysis using he jackkni e lea e-one-ou me hod. Po en ial spillo e
e ec s migh a ise in he dono pool, which consis s o non- ea ed p oduc s om he i on and
s eel sec o . We con ol o his by using a sepa a e dono pool om o he me als. Mo eo e ,
he me hod is bes sui ed o indi idual p oduc g oups, as nega i e weigh s could po en ially
skew a e age esul s wi h di e en ea men imes. To suppo ou indings on indi idual
CIRs wi h e idence o gene al ends, we employ he s agge ed di e ence-in-di e ences
model o Callaway and San ’Anna (2021). In con as o simila me hods o s agge ed
analysis, such as ETWFE, no -ye - ea ed p oduc s a e excluded om he con ols.
4 Da a
The da ase conside ed in his s udy is p o ided by he Di ec o a e Gene al T ade o he
Eu opean Commission and is a ailable o public access on he Eu os a pla o m unde he
e m “Da abase on In e na ional T ade in Goods.” As we a e in e es ed in he impac o
an i-dumping measu es on Chinese i on and s eel p oduc s, we include only hose p oduc s
in ou analysis ha all wi hin sec ion 72 (“I on and S eel”) o he Ha monized Sys em. The
da ase con ains in o ma ion on impo quan i ies and alues o each ading pa ne coun y
o he Eu opean Union. F om his inpu , we a e able o calcula e he o e all impo p ices
as well as hose o selec ed ading pa ne s. Da a poin s a e a ailable om 1988 onwa ds
on a mon hly basis, segmen ed by indi idual p oduc s which a e iden i iable by hei 8-digi
Ha monized Commodi y Desc ip ion and Coding Sys em (HS) indica o . To imp o e da a
comple eness, we agg ega e in o annual da a poin s and adjus he ime ame o he espec i e
analysis acco ding o he a ailabili y o su icien da a in he espec i e p oduc class.
123
Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24 Page 7 o 31 24
The ASCM equi es a dono pool o de e mine he co a ia es o he syn he ic p oduc .
This pool comp ises all p oduc s wi hin sec ion 72 ha ha e no been a ge ed by an an i-
dumping measu e. Fo an addi ional obus ness check, we ha e also buil a second dono pool
wi h p oduc s om sec ions 74 and 75, co e ing coppe and nickel p oduc s, espec i ely.
To p epa e he da a o analysis, we dis inguish be ween una ec ed and a ec ed p oduc s. A
p oduc is una ec ed i i has no been a ge ed by an an i-dumping measu e a any ime and
ice e sa. Fu he , p oduc s a e assigned as ea ed when hey ha e been a ge ed by an an i-
dumping measu e in he espec i e ime ame and un ea ed, indica ing ha no measu e was
in o ce. This dis inc ion also se es as he indica o o he in oduc ion o a ea men on he
p oduc , which is necessa y when compa ing he ac ual obse a ions agains he syn he ically
cons uc ed alues.
An i-dumping measu es o he Eu opean Union a e published h ough so-called Com-
mission Implemen ing Regula ions (CIRs), which, among o he de ails, speci y he a ge ed
p oduc s. A complica ion a ises om he ac ha he de ini ion is made a he HS-8 le el.
As laid ou be o e, he da ase can p o ide such g anula da a, bu such a na ow speci ica-
ion in oduces p oblems wi h da a comple eness, which would hampe ou syn he ic con ol
analysis. Ne e heless, in almos all cases, he measu es co e all sub-i ems o he HS-6
le el, whe e da a is eliably a ailable. I is he e o e possible o agg ega e he measu es on
he highe 6-digi le el wi hou educing he alidi y o esul s. Ou o 72 a ec ed p oduc s
on he HS-6 le el, 16 a e no wholly co e ed by an i-dumping measu es and a e he e o e
excluded; hus, 56 p oduc classes emain o ou analysis. Fu he , he dono pool co e s
176 una ec ed HS-6 p oduc classes. An o e iew o all a ec ed HS-6 p oduc s, including
he comple eness o da a and he espec i e CIR, is a ailable in he appendix.
We also ex end ou analysis o po en ial e ou ing o a ge ed Chinese goods in o he
Eu opean Union h ough hi d-pa y coun ies, a p ocess o en called “ elabeling.” To ende
he analysis cong uen wi h ou ASCM app oach, we ely on HS6 da a o coun ies conside ed
o be likely hubs o e ou ing. Tha is, hose coun ies ha we e able o gain signi ican ma ke
sha e a e he in oduc ion o a i s. We ha e ga he ed da a o hei impo s om China,
conside ing all HS-6 le el p oduc s wi hin sec ion 72. The da ase is collec ed ia he UN
Com ade pla o m.
5 Me hodology
The ASCM is based on he syn he ic con ol me hod (SCM) by Abadie and Ga deazabal
(2003). In gene al, he SCM is an empi ical ool o analyze he in oduc ion o a policy
measu e by compa ing he ac ual obse a ions wi h an a i icial coun e pa . I cons uc s a
syn he ic ime se ies, wi h una ec ed p oduc s indi idually weigh ed in o de o ende he
syn he ic and ac ual ime se ies be o e he in oduc ion o he a i as cong uen as possible.
While p e ious s udies in he an i-dumping ealm ha e made limi ed use o he app oach
employed in his pape , i has been used ex ensi ely in o he se ings o economic policy
e alua ion (e.g., Bo n e al. 2019; Gab iel and Pessoa 2024; McCloud and Taylo 2022;
Ponnusamy 2021; Seile e al. 2022). As he da ase consis s o mul iple p oduc classes
obse ed o e a ime span, we conside a panel wi h i=1,...,Nuni s obse ed o e
=1,...,Tpe iods. In each analysis o he a i ’s e ec on p ope ies (quan i y impo ed
om China, o al EU impo s, and wo ld ma ke p ice) o he p oduc classes, we indica e he
ea ed HS-6 code as Wi=1 and uni s ne e ecei ing his o ano he ea men as Wi=0.
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24 Page 8 o 31 Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24
The emaining N0=N−1 p oduc classes belong o he dono pool, and T0<T ep esen s
he poin in ime when he a i was in oduced. The po en ial ou comes Yi (0)and Yi (1)
o uni iin pe iod unde con ol and ea men a e hus de ined as
Yi =Yi (0)i Wi=0∨ ≤T0
Yi (1)i Wi=1∧ >T0.(1)
The dono s’ ou comes a e assumed o be he sum o a ixed pa mi and a whi e noise
componen wi h a ze o-mean i , o mal as Yi (0)=mi +i . The ea ed ou come is
ep esen ed as Yi (1)=Yi (0)+τi , wi h τi assigned o he ea men e ec , in ou case
he impac o he imposed a i . Fo simplici y, i is assumed ha he i s uni ecei es he
ea men ; he e o e,0 he ea men e ec o mally esul s in τ=τ1T=Y1T(1)−Y1T(0).
The p e- ea men ou comes in he SCM, which se e as co a ia es, a e ep esen ed by Xi
o ≤T0.X0 hen ep esen s he N0×T0ma ix o p e- ea men ou comes wi hin he dono
pool. Y0Tis he N0 ec o o con ol uni ou comes in pe iod T. The syn he ic con ol uni ,
he coun e ac ual, is cons uc ed by a weigh ed a e age o he con ol ou comes Y
0Tγ.The
goal is o choose hese weigh s γ o ge as close as possible o he ac ual obse a ion in he
p e- ea men pe iod. In echnical e ms, he choice is de ined by an op imiza ion p oblem
wi h VXas an iden i y ma ix and ζ≥0 as a pa ame e penalizing he dispe sion o weigh s.
minγ||V0.5
XX1−X
0γ||2
2+ζ
Wi=0
(γi),s. .
Wi=0
γi=1;γi≥0;i:Wi=0(2)
The speci ic cons ain s ensu e ha no ex apola ion is possible ou side he con ol uni s
( he con ex hull). This can become pa icula ly p oblema ic i he alues o he ea ed uni
con ain he maximum alues o he da a se i sel . Then, any possible weigh ing o he o he
dono uni s does no each he alues needed. Following ha , p ope p e- ea men be ween
he ea ed uni , in ou case he p oduc class obse ed, and he coun e ac ual, c ea ed by
weigh ing un ea ed p oduc classes wi hin he s eel indus y, is no always possible. The
g ea e he p e- ea men di e gence, he less sui able he SCM. To add ess his issue and
imp o e he o e all i , Ben-Michael e al. (2021) and o he au ho s sugges ed o augmen
SCM o con ol o he bias due o he de ia ion be ween he ea men uni and he dono s.
The ASCM adjus s esul s acco dingly wi h an ASCM es ima o o Y1T(0)
ˆ
Yaug
1T(0)=
Wi=0
ˆγscm
iYiT +⎛
⎝ˆm1T−
Wi=0
ˆγiscm ˆmiT⎞
⎠(3)
=ˆm1T+
Wi=0
ˆγscm
iYiT −ˆmiT,(4)
whe e γscm
ideno es he SCM weigh s and ˆmiT is an es ima o o miT. S anda d SCM implies
a cons an ˆmiT, whe eby he ASCM uses es ima o s ha a e unc ions o p e- ea men
ou comes, ˆmiT ≡ˆm(Xi). Among o he speci ica ions, Ben-Michael e al. (2021) sugges
he usage o idge eg ession (Hoe l and Kenna d 1970), which has p o en o be a obus
ex ension. I op imizes he p e- ea men i by elaxing one o he basic assump ions, allowing
o nega i e weigh s. Fu he mo e, idge eg ession minimizes he ex apola ion ou side he
con ex hull and leads o an es ima o o he pos - ea men ou come
ˆm(Xi)=ˆη idge
0+X
iˆ
η idge,(5)
123
Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24 Page 15 o 31 24
−5,0
−2,5
0,0
2,5
−9−8−7−6−5−4−3−2−10123456
Time Rela i e o T ea men
Log Imp Quan
P e Pos
C
hanges in Impo
Q
uan i y
om
C
hina
−1
0
−9 −8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Time Rela i e o T ea men
Log Imp Quan
P e Pos
Changes in O e all Impo Quan i y
−0,25
0,00
0,25
0,50
−9 −8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Time Rela i e o T ea men
Log Imp P ice
P e Pos
Changes in O e all Impo P ices
Fig. 7 S agge ed di e ence-in-di e ences obus ness check
con i ms ou p e ious esul s. To con ol o po en ial spillo e e ec s in he ASCM, we
p o ide a obus ness check using a di e en dono pool. We ha e included p oduc s om HS
sec ion 74, co e ing coppe , and HS sec ion 75, co e ing nickel. While hese a e un ela ed
Quan i
y
F
equency
−5000000 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000
0510 15 20 25 30 35
Fig. 8 Dis ibu ion o di e ence be ween p e- and pos - ea men global EU impo quan i y
123
24 Page 16 o 31 Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24
o he o iginal HS72 sec ion conside ed in his s udy, hey a e me allic commodi ies and can
he e o e be assumed o ollow compa able ading pa e ns. The esul s o his ex ension,
which can be ound in he annex, con i m ou o iginal analysis. Fu he mo e, we imp o ed
he obus ness o he analysis ou side he ASCM, displayed in Fig. 5. We ind no dec ease in
o al impo s a e he an i-dumping measu e, which shows ha he educ ion o PRC ma ke
sha e has been subs i u ed by hi d coun y p oduce s. In ou examina ion, we sub ac he
o al EU impo quan i y 3 yea s be o e he in oduc ion o a i s om he quan i y 3 yea s
a e he in oduc ion. Resul s o hese calcula ions a e p esen ed on he ho izon al axis in 15
equidis an bins anging om minus 5 mn o plus 25 mn. The bin a ound ze o is obse ed
mos equen ly, and bins below ha e no obse a ion a all. Acco dingly, he e is no dec ease
in impo s a e he an i-dumping measu e. While esul s in Fig.5a e based on a 3-yea con-
side a ion due o he a he ecen publica ion o some an i-dumping measu es, an ex ension
o he analysis wi h di e en ime ames yields simila esul s.
Summing up, ou esul s ega ding he impac o EU an i-dumping measu es on impo
quan i y om he PRC, o al impo s, and ma ke p ices pain a clea -cu pic u e. While
Chinese impo s a e—as expec ed—signi ican ly educed, indica ing some ade des uc ion,
he o al impo quan i ies emain la when compa ed agains he syn he ic coun e pa . This
indica es a ade di e sion e ec : missing Chinese impo s a e la gely subs i u ed by hi d-
pa y coun ies. Fu he , ou analysis shows ha he e is only limi ed elabeling. Mo eo e ,
we can poin ou ha domes ic p oduce s ha e no been unduly a o ed in e ms o highe
ma gins, as he e ec on impo p ices has been minimal.
7 Conclusion
This pape examined whe he he EU’s an i-dumping measu es a ge ing China’s i on and
s eel indus y ollow a p o ec ionis app oach. The condi ions o such measu es a e se ou in
EU law, based upon WTO ules. Thei applica ion is hea ily deba ed among legal schola s and
ollows ques ionable economic easoning. Fu he , he poli ical impo ance o he sec o could
make i p one o p o ec ionism in disguise. Ne e heless, we p esen empi ical e idence ha
e u es he allega ion o p o ec ionism, when conside ing EU an i-dumping measu es agains
he PRC’s i on and s eel indus y.
Ou empi ical analysis is ocused on he ea men e ec s o an i-dumping measu es on
impo le els and impo p ices. We use he augmen ed syn he ic con ol me hod o p o ide
coun e ac uals on he indi idual Commission Implemen ing Regula ions. The indi idual
weigh ing and idge eg ession op imiza ion o ASCM p o ide bene i s o he analysis o
he e ogeneous i on and s eel p oduc s. Mo eo e , i a oids selec ion bias and imp o es p e-
ea men i . To a oid po en ial spillo e e ec s, a obus ness check in ol ing a dono pool
sepa a e om i on and s eel p oduc s is in oduced. We p o ide addi ional suppo o ou
indings wi h a s agge ed di e ence-in-di e ences es ima o . The chosen me hodology, pu
o wa d by Callaway and San ’Anna, is a obus applica ion o cap u e mul iple ea men
imes, as i a oids nega i e weigh s and excludes no -ye - ea ed i ems om con ols.
Resul s poin agains he allega ion o p o ec ionism in disguise, as EU i on and s eel
companies ha e no been unduly a o ed by an i-dumping measu es. We ind a signi ican
dec ease in impo s om he PRC o all p oduc classes. On he o he hand, o al impo
quan i ies ha e no been signi ican ly a ec ed. This sugges s ha o e all demand in Eu ope
is inelas ic, which appea s logical when conside ing ha i on and s eel p oduc s a e an
essen ial pa o a wide ange o downs eam indus ies. Mo eo e , he e appea s o be a
high elas ici y o subs i u ion be ween o eign supplie s, as a ge ed Chinese p oduce s a e
123
Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24 Page 17 o 31 24
subs i u ed wi h impo s om coun ies ou side o he Eu opean Union. A ques ion a ises
om he appa en supply inelas ici y o domes ic p oduce s, which would open he ou e o
u u e esea ch, based on p oduc ion capaci y da a, which was no a ailable o us in his s udy.
The i on and s eel ma ke hus appea s o be globally compe i i e, wi h minimal swi ching
cos s. Fo some p oduc s, we ha e ound a sho -li ed inc ease in impo p ices, which poin s
agains he c ea ion o las ing economic ine iciency and indica es ma ke adjus men e ec s.
The p ice changes a e assumed o be a esul o sho -li ed ola ili y. This suppo s ou
inding o su icien ly elas ic supply om non-EU coun ies, as o eign companies we e
able o p o ide p oduc ion capaci y wi hou signi ican long- e m p ice inc eases. Mo eo e ,
i signals ha ma gins o domes ic p oduce s a e only minimally imp o ed. Ou ASCM
analysis e eals g anula ends, which a e suppo ed by he p o ided obus ness checks. The
sepa a e dono pool based on nickel and coppe p oduc s con i ms ini ial indings, and he
s agge ed di e ence-in-di e ences analysis p o ides u he e idence on gene al ends.
These esul s call in o ques ion he policy goals o he EU an i-dumping measu es. Con-
side ing ou indings, i seems mo e likely ha a i s we e le ied o educe dependency
on China, which held signi ican sha es o he EU impo ma ke s in he a ec ed p oduc
classes be o e he in oduc ion o he ea men . Ou esul s lend some economic c edibili y
o he use o an i-dumping measu es by he Eu opean Union. Howe e , ou no ion ha he e
appea s o be no p o ec ionism in disguise in EU an i-dumping measu es agains PRC i on
and s eel p oduc s migh be limi ed o he conside ed ma ke . The global o e capaci y could
p o ide o high elas ici y o subs i u ion be ween o eign supplie s, which would explain
why domes ic companies we e no able o gain ma ke sha e. In o de o gene alize indings,
we sugges applying he p oposed me hodology o o he p oduc se s and include domes ic
p oduc ion ou pu s a is ics, whe e a ailable.
Appendix A. Rele an HS codes and Commission Implemen ing
Regula ions
Table 1 HS-code, desc ip ion, da a comple eness, and CIR o a ec ed p oduc s
HS-code Desc ip ion Comple e? CIR
7208 Fla - olled p oduc s o i on o non-alloy s eel, o a
wid h >= 600mm, ho - olled, no clad, pla ed o
coa ed
720810 In coils, wi h pa e ns in elie di ec ly due o he
olling p ocess
Yes 2016/1778
720825 In coils, o a hickness o >= 4,75 mm, pickled, wi h-
ou pa e ns in elie
Yes 2016/1778
720826 In coils, o a hickness o >= 3 mm bu <4,75 mm,
pickled, wi hou pa e ns in elie
Yes 2016/1778
720827 In coils, o a hickness o <3mm, pickled, wi hou
pa e ns in elie
Yes 2016/1778
720836 In coils, o a hickness o >= 10 mm, no pickled,
wi hou pa e ns in elie
Yes 2016/1778
720837 In coils, o a hickness o >=4,75mmbu <10mm,
no pickled, wi hou pa e ns in elie
Yes 2016/1778
720838 In coils, o a hickness o >= 3 mm bu <4,75 mm,
no pickled, wi hou pa e ns in elie
Yes 2016/1778
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24 Page 18 o 31 Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24
Table 1 con inued
HS-code Desc ip ion Comple e? CIR
720839 In coils, o a hickness o <3 mm, no pickled, wi hou
pa e ns in elie
Yes 2016/1778
720840 No in coils, wi h pa e ns in elie di ec ly due o he
olling p ocess
Yes 2016/1778
720851 No in coils, o a hickness o >10mm, wi hou pa -
e ns in elie
Yes 2016/1777
720852 No in coils, o a hickness o >=4,75mmbu <=
10mm, wi hou pa e ns in elie
Yes 2016/1778
720853 No in coils, o a hickness o >= 3mm bu <
4,75mm, wi hou pa e ns in elie
Yes 2016/1778
720854 No in coils, o a hickness o <3mm, wi hou pa -
e ns in elie
Yes 2016/1778
720890 Fu he wo ked Yes 2016/1777
7209 Fla - olled p oduc s o i on o non-alloy s eel, o a
wid h o >= 600mm, cold- olled "cold- educed", no
clad, pla ed o coa ed
720915 In coils, o a hickness o >= 3mm Yes 2016/181
720916 In coils, o a hickness o >1mmbu <3 mm Yes 2016/181
720917 In coils, o a hickness o >= 0,5mm bu <= 1 mm Yes 2016/181
720925 No in coils, o a hickness o >= 3mm Yes 2016/181
720926 No in coils, o a hickness o >1mmbu <3mm Yes 2016/181
720927 No in coils, o a hickness o >= 0,5mm bu <=
1mm
Yes 2016/181
720928 No in coils, o a hickness o <0,5mm No 2016/181
No es: Since each HS-6 code is a sub-ca ego y o an HS-4 code, we ha e a anged hem nume ically and
sho ened he Desc ip ion o he HS-6 codes so ha he o e all desc ip ion o he pa en ca ego y applies o
each unde lying code. The column Comple e? e e s o whe he he HS-6 code is a ec ed by he an i-dumping
measu e in each o i s HS-8 subca ego ies. CIR e e s o he code o he Commission Implemen ing Regula ion
Table 2 Con inued: HS-code, desc ip ion, da a comple eness, and CIR o a ec ed p oduc s
HS-code Desc ip ion Comple e? CIR
7210 Fla - olled p oduc s o i on o non-alloy s eel
o a wid h >= 600mm, ho - olled o cold- olled
""cold- educed"", clad, pla ed o coa ed
721041 Co uga ed, pla ed o coa ed wi h zinc (excl. elec-
oly ically pla ed o coa ed wi h zinc)
Yes 2017/1444
721049 No co uga ed, pla ed o coa ed wi h zinc (excl. elec-
oly ically pla ed o coa ed wi h zinc)
Yes 2017/1444
721050 Pla ed o coa ed wi h ch omium oxides o wi h
ch omium and ch omium oxides
Yes 2022/802
721061 Pla ed o coa ed wi h aluminum-zinc alloys Yes 2017/1444
721069 Pla ed o coa ed wi h aluminum (excl. p oduc s pla ed
o coa ed wi h aluminum-zinc alloys)
Yes 2017/1444
721070 Pain ed, a nished o coa ed wi h plas ics No 845/2012
7211 Fla - olled p oduc s o i on o non-alloy s eel
123
Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24 Page 19 o 31 24
Table 2 con inued
HS-code Desc ip ion Comple e? CIR
o a wid h o <600mm, ho - olled o cold- olled
"cold- educed", no clad, pla ed o coa ed
721113 Simply ho - olled on ou aces o in a closed box
pass, o a wid h o >150mm bu <600 mm and a
hickness o >= 4mm, no in coils, wi hou pa e ns
in elie , commonly known as "wide la s"
Yes 2016/1778
721114 No u he wo ked han ho - olled, o a hickness o
>= 4,75mm (excl. "wide la s")
Yes 2016/1778
721119 O a hickness <4,75mm (excl. "wide la s") Yes 2016/1778
721123 Con aining by weigh <0,25% o ca bon Yes 2016/181
721129 Con aining by weigh >= 0,25% o ca bon Yes 2016/181
7212 Fla - olled p oduc s o i on o non-alloy s eel
o a wid h o <600mm, ho - olled o cold- olled
"cold- educed", clad, pla ed o coa ed
721230 Tinned (excl. elec oly ically pla ed o coa ed wi h
zinc)
Yes 2017/1444
721240 Pain ed, a nished o coa ed wi h plas ics No 845/2012
721250 Excl. inned, pla ed o coa ed wi h zinc, pain ed, a -
nished o coa ed wi h plas ics
No 2017/1444
7213 Ba s and ods o i on o non-alloy s eel, ho - olled, in
i egula ly wound coils
721310 Wi h inden a ions, ibs, g oo es o o he de o ma ions
p oduced du ing he olling p ocess
Yes 112/2009
721320 O non-alloy ee-cu ing s eel (excl. ba s and ods
con aining inden a ions, ibs
g oo es o o he de o ma ions p oduced du ing he
olling p ocess)
Yes 112/2009
721391 O ci cula c oss-sec ion measu ing <14mm in
diame e (excl. ba s and ods o ee-cu ing s eel
and ba s and ods wi h inden a ions, ibs, g oo es o
o he de o ma ions p oduced du ing he olling p o-
cess)
Yes 112/2009
721399 Excl. p oduc s o ci cula c oss-sec ion measu ing <
14mm in diame e , ba s and ods o ee-cu ing s eel
and ba s and ods wi h inden a ions, ibs, g oo es o
o he de o ma ions p oduced du ing he olling p o-
cess
Yes 112/2009
Table 3 Con inued: HS-code, desc ip ion, da a comple eness, and CIR o a ec ed p oduc s
HS-code Desc ip ion Comple e? CIR
7214 Ba s and ods, o i on o non-alloy s eel, no u he
wo ked han o ged, ho - olled
ho -d awn o ho -ex uded, bu incl. hose wis ed
a e olling (excl. in i egula ly wound coils)
721420 Wi h inden a ions, ibs, g o es o o he de o ma ions
p oduced du ing he olling p ocess
Yes 2016/113
123
24 Page 20 o 31 Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24
Table 3 con inued
HS-code Desc ip ion Comple e? CIR
7217 Wi e o i on o non-alloy s eel, in coils (excl. ba s and
ods)
721710 No pla ed o coa ed, whe he o no polished No 1129/2008
721720 Pla ed o coa ed wi h zinc No 1129/2008
7219 Fla - olled p oduc s o s ainless s eel, o a wid h o
>= 600mm, ho - olled o cold- olled "cold- educed"
721911 No u he wo ked han ho - olled,in coils, o a hick-
ness o >10mm
Yes 2020/508
721912 No u he wo ked han ho - olled,in coils, o a hick-
ness o >= 4,7mm and <=10mm
Yes 2020/508
721913 no u he wo ked han ho - olled, in coils, o a hick-
ness o >= 3mm and <4,75 mm
Yes 2020/508
721914 No u he wo ked han ho - olled,in coils, o a hick-
ness o <3mm
Yes 2020/508
721922 No u he wo ked han ho - olled, no in coils, o a
hickness o >=4,75mmand<=10mm
Yes 2020/508
721923 No u he wo ked han ho - olled, no in coils, o a
hickness o >= 3mm and <4,75 mm
Yes 2020/508
721924 No u he wo ked han ho - olled, no in coils, o a
hickness o <3mm
Yes 2020/508
721931 No u he wo ked han cold- olled "cold- educed",
o a hickness o >=4,75mm
Yes 2015/501
721932 No u he wo ked han cold- olled "cold- educed",
o a hickness o >= 3mm bu <4,75mm
Yes 2015/501
721933 No u he wo ked han cold- olled "cold- educed",
o a hickness o >1mmbu <3 mm"
Yes 2015/501
721934 No u he wo ked han cold- olled "cold- educed",
o a hickness o >= 0,5mm bu <= 1mm"
Yes 2015/501
721935 No u he wo ked han cold- olled "cold- educed",
o a hickness o <0,5mm"
Yes 2015/501
7220 Fla - olled p oduc s o s ainless s eel, o a wid h o <
600mm, ho - olled o cold- olled "cold- educed"
722011 No u he wo ked han ho - olled, o a hickness o
>=4,75mm
Yes 2020/508
722012 No u he wo ked han ho - olled, o a hickness o
<4,75mm
Yes 2020/508
722020 No u he wo ked han cold- olled "cold- educed" Yes 2015/501
Table 4 Con inued: HS-code, desc ip ion, da a comple eness, and CIR o a ec ed p oduc s
HS-code Desc ip ion Comple e? CIR
7225 Fla - olled p oduc s o alloy s eel o he han s ainless
o a wid h o >= 600mm, ho - olled o cold- olled
"cold- educed"
722511 Silicon-elec ical s eel, g ain-o ien ed Yes 2015/763
722519 Silicon-elec ical s eel, non-g ain-o ien ed No 2016/1778
123
Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24 Page 21 o 31 24
Table 4 con inued
HS-code Desc ip ion Comple e? CIR
722530 No u he wo ked han ho - olled, in coils (excl.
p oduc s o silicon-elec ical s eel)
No 2016/1778
722540 No u he wo ked han ho - olled, no in coils (excl.
p oduc s o silicon-elec ical s eel)
No 2016/1778
722550 No u he wo ked han cold- olled "cold- educed"
(excl. p oduc s o silicon-elec ical s eel)"
No 2016/181
722592 And pla ed o coa ed wi h zinc (excl. elec oly ically
pla ed o coa ed and p oduc s o silicon-elec ical
s eel)
No 2017/1444
722599 And u he wo ked (excl. pla ed o coa ed wi h zinc
and p oduc s o silicon-elec ical s eel)
No 845/2012
7226 Fla - olled p oduc s o alloy s eel o he han s ainless
o a wid h o <600mm, ho - olled o cold- olled
"cold- educed"
722611 Silicon-elec ical s eel, g ain-o ien ed No 2015/763
722619 Silicon-elec ical s eel, non-g ain-o ien ed No 2016/1778
722691 No u he wo ked han ho - olled (excl. p oduc s o
high-speed s eel o silicon-elec ical s eel)
No 2016/1778
722692 No u he wo ked han cold- olled "cold- educed"
(excl. p oduc s o high-speed s eel o silicon-
elec ical s eel)
Yes 2016/181
722699 Ho - olled o cold- olled "cold- educed" and u he
wo ked (excl. p oduc s o high-speed s eel o silicon-
elec ical s eel)"
No 845/2012
7227 Ba s and ods o alloy s eel o he han s ainless, ho -
olled, in i egula ly wound coils
722710 High-speed s eel Yes 112/2009
722720 Silico-manganese s eel Yes 112/2009
722790 Excl. p oduc s o high-speed s eel o silicon-elec ical
s eel
Yes 112/2009
Table 5 Di e ence-in-
di e ences analysis, EU impo
quan i y om China
2016/181 2016/1778 2015/501 2017/1444
(In e cep ) 9.12∗∗∗ 9.12∗∗∗ 9.15∗∗∗ 9,13∗∗∗
(0.10)(0.10)(0.10)(0.10)
A0.12 0.44∗−0.05 −0.08
(0.17)(017)(0.18)(0.19)
P−0.36∗−0.36∗−0.32∗−0.32∗
(0.16)(0.17)(0.15)(0.16)
A*P −0.81∗∗ −1.68∗∗∗ 0.01 −0.07
(0.28)(0.28)(0.27)(0.28)
R20.01 0.04 0.00 0.00
Adj. R20.01 0.04 0.00 0.00
Num. obs 2086 2197 2086 2022
∗∗∗ p<0.001; ∗∗ p<0.01; ∗p<0.05
123
24 Page 22 o 31 Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24
Table 6 Di e ence-in-
di e ences analysis, o al EU
impo quan i y
2016/181 2016/1778 2015/501 2017/1444
(In e cep ) 12.79∗∗∗ 12.79∗∗∗ 12.79∗∗∗ 12.79∗∗∗
(0.07)(0.07)(0.08)(0.08)
A0.07 0.39∗∗ −0.06 −0.07
(0.13)(0.12)(0.14)(0.14)
P0.10 0.10 0.08 0.08
(0.12)(0.12)(0.12)(0.12)
A*P −0.02 −0.06 0.08 0.03
(0.21)(0.20)(0.21)(0.21)
R20.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
Adj. R2−0.00 0.01 −0.00 −0.00
Num. obs 2086 2197 2086 2022
∗∗∗ p<0.001; ∗∗ p<0.01; ∗p<0.05
Table 7 Di e ence-in-
di e ences analysis, EU impo
p ice
2016/181 2016/1778 2015/501 2017/1444
(In e cep ) 4.79∗∗∗ 4.79∗∗∗ 4.80∗∗∗ 4.79∗∗∗
(0.03)(0.03)(0.03)(0.03)
A−0.16∗∗ −0.27∗∗∗ 0.01 −0.08
(0.05)(0.05)(0.06)(0.06)
P−0.01 −0.01 −0.02 −0.02
(0.05)(0.05)(0.05)(0.05)
A*P 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.05
(0.09)(0.08)(0.09)(0.09)
R20.00 0.02 0.00 0.00
Adj. R2000 0.02 −0.00 −0.00
Num. obs 2086 2197 2086 2022
∗∗∗ p<0.001; ∗∗ p<0.01; ∗p<0.05
Table 8 Classic
di e ence-in-di e ences
analysis, elabeling
2015/501 2016/181 2016/1778 2017/1444
(In e cep ) −10.49∗∗∗ −8.97∗∗∗ −7.39∗∗∗ −10.30∗∗∗
(0.96)(0.96)(0.96)(0.97)
Q0.04∗∗∗ 0.04∗∗∗ 0.05∗∗∗ 0.04∗∗∗
(0.01)(0.01)(0.01)(0.01)
A−0.15 1.99∗∗∗ 3.06∗∗∗ −0.97∗
(0.65)(0.36)(0.28)(0.48)
∗∗∗ p<0.001; ∗∗ p<0.01; ∗p<0.05
123
Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24 Page 23 o 31 24
Table 8 con inued 2015/501 2016/181 2016/1778 2017/1444
P0.25 0.32∗0.34∗0.25
(0.15)(0.15)(0.15)(0.15)
A*P 1.51 −0.38 −1.47∗∗∗ 0.52
(0.89)(0.52)(0.39)(0.76)
G0.48∗∗∗ 0.43∗∗∗ 0.37∗∗∗ 0.48∗∗∗
(0.04)(0.04)(0.04)(0.04)
Q*A 0.20∗∗∗ −0.05 −0.16∗∗∗ 0.14∗∗∗
(0.05)(0.03)(0.02)(0.04)
Q*P −0.03∗−0.04∗∗ −0.04∗∗ −0.04∗∗
(0.01)(0.01)(0.01)(0.01)
Q*A*P −0,04 0.08 0.16∗∗∗ 0.10
(0.07)(0.05)(0.03)(0.06)
R20.05 0.03 0.03 0.04
Adj. R20.05 0.03 0.03 0.03
Num. obs 10,584 10,908 11,556 10,476
∗∗∗ p<0.001; ∗∗ p<0.01; ∗p<0.05
−6
−4
−2
0
−5−4−3−2−10123456
Time
Log Q y China
2015/501
−12
−8
−4
0
−6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Time
Log Q y China
2016/181
−15
−10
−5
0
−7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4
Time
Log Q y China
2016/1778
−3
−2
−1
0
1
−8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
Time
Log Q y China
2017/1444
Fig. 9 Robus ness check wi h dono pool consis ing o p oduc s om HS74 (coppe ) and HS75 (nickel)
con i ms signi ican e ec on EU impo s om China
123
24 Page 24 o 31 Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24
−1,0
−0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Time
Log Q y Wo ld
2015/501
−1,0
−0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
−6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Time
Log Q y Wo ld
2016/181
−2
−1
0
1
2
−7−6−5−4−3−2−101234
Time
Log Q y Wo ld
2016/1778
−1
0
1
−8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
Time
Log Q y Wo ld
2017/1444
Fig. 10 Robus ness check wi h dono pool consis ing o p oduc s om HS74 (coppe ) and HS75 (nickel)
con i ms no e ec on o al impo quan i y
−0,50
−0,25
0,00
0,25
−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Time
Log Imp P ice
2015/501
−0,50
−0,25
0,00
0,25
0,50
0,75
−6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Time
Log Imp P ice
2016/181
−0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
−7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4
Time
Log Imp P ice
2016/1778
−0,4
−0,2
0,0
0,2
−8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
Time
Log Imp P ice
2017/1444
Fig. 11 Robus ness check wi h dono pool consis ing o p oduc s om HS74 (coppe ) and HS75 (nickel)
lends some suppo o ma ke adjus men e ec s on o e all impo p ices
123
Jou nal o Indus y, Compe i ion and T ade (2024) 24 :24 Page 31 o 31 24
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