Dubo ik, Mayya; Dmi ie , Se gey; Obido skaya, Na alya; Khalma jano a,
Gulchex a
A icle
‘P ism’ o he meso-le el: do he cyclical pa e ns a he
na ional and egional le els coincide?
Cogen Economics & Finance
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Taylo & F ancis G oup
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Dubo ik, Mayya; Dmi ie , Se gey; Obido skaya, Na alya; Khalma jano a,
Gulchex a (2024) : ‘P ism’ o he meso-le el: do he cyclical pa e ns a he na ional and egional
le els coincide?, Cogen Economics & Finance, ISSN 2332-2039, Taylo & F ancis, Abingdon, Vol. 12,
Iss. 1, pp. 1-22,
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‘P ism’ o he meso-le el: do he cyclical pa e ns
a he na ional and egional le els coincide?
Mayya Dubo ik, Se gey Dmi ie , Na alya Obido skaya & Gulchex a
Khalma jano a
To ci e his a icle: Mayya Dubo ik, Se gey Dmi ie , Na alya Obido skaya & Gulchex a
Khalma jano a (2024) ‘P ism’ o he meso-le el: do he cyclical pa e ns a he na ional
and egional le els coincide?, Cogen Economics & Finance, 12:1, 2350196, DOI:
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DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS | RESEARCH ARTICLE
‘P ism’ o he meso-le el: do he cyclical pa e ns a he na ional and
egional le els coincide?
Mayya Dubo ik
a
, Se gey Dmi ie
b
, Na alya Obido skaya
c
and Gulchex a Khalma jano a
d
a
Depa men o Economic Theo y, Plekhano Russian Uni e si y o Economics, Moscow, Russian Fede a ion;
b
Depa men
o Economics, Cus oms, IT, Plekhano Russian Uni e si y o Economics, Moscow, Russian Fede a ion;
c
Depa men o Ci il,
C iminal Law and P ocedu e and Financial and Legal Disciplines, Plekhano Russian Uni e si y o Economics, Moscow,
Russian Fede a ion;
d
Depa men o Regional Economics and Accoun ing, Fe ghana S a e Uni e si y, Fe ghana, Uzbekis an
ABSTRACT
The pu pose o he s udy is o de e mine he mos ele an me hod o a ime se ies ana-
lysis o iden i y he cyclicali y in he de elopmen o egional economies. In pu sui o
he goal, a compa a i e app oach was employed, ocusing on he u iliza ion o G oss
Regional P oduc (GRP) indica o s om he egions wi hin he Cen al Fede al Dis ic o
he Russian Fede a ion. S a is ical and econome ic me hods we e also employed o
analyze he changes in hese indica o s o e ime ( om 1998 o 2019). The ele ance o
his s udy mani es s in i s capaci y o elucida e he cyclic p ocesses wi hin he de elop-
men o egional economies, he eby enabling he iden i ica ion o s a egies o in lu-
ence hem owa d he a ainmen o sus ainable and balanced de elopmen goals. The
s udy e ealed ha he majo i y o he examined egions emain in he lowes qua ile
o G oss Regional P oduc (GRP), while wo egions consis en ly ea u e in he highes
GRP qua ile. The esea ch indings hold p ac ical implica ions o policy decisions and
egional de elopmen s a egies, aiding in unde s anding economic dynamics and sup-
po ing he implemen a ion o e ec i e managemen measu es o bols e egional
de elopmen . Based on he esea ch indings, i is ecommended o in ensi y suppo
o egions wi h low GDP by p o iding addi ional in es men s and in as uc u al de el-
opmen , as well as adap ing success ul de elopmen s a egies. Poli ical decisions
should be g ounded in cyclical ends, aking in o accoun he needs and oppo uni ies
o each egion. Fu u e esea ch e o s may ocus on e ining he spec al analysis
me hod o a mo e p ecise and eliable analysis o GRP dynamics a he egional le el.
IMPACT STATEMENT
This esea ch has shown ha he dis ibu ion o g ow h in he g oss egional p oduc
is no s a is ically no mal and he e o e i is necessa y o complemen adi ional na -
a i e s a is ics wi h o he me hods. The esul s o ou spec al analysis con i med ou
hypo hesis abou he use ulness o his me hod. An in oduced model o spec al
analysis o GRP ea s i as a speci ic case o he eg ession model using disc e e
Fou ie ans o ma ion. Conside ing he pe sis en end o low le els o egional p od-
uc in ce ain egions jux aposed wi h consis en ly high le els in o he s, we ecom-
mend he de elopmen o a na ional s a egy encompassing specialized p og ams o
suppo and os e he egions in he lowes qua ile o egional p oduc .
Policymake s should ac i ely incen i ize in es men s in egions wi h low le els o
egional p oduc , di ec ing inancial and o he esou ces o bols e economic g ow h
and in as uc u al de elopmen .
ARTICLE HISTORY
Recei ed 25 Augus 2023
Re ised 23 Ap il 2024
Accep ed 26 Ap il 2024
KEYWORDS
Desc ip i e s a is ics;
explo a o y da a analysis;
g oss egional p oduc ;
egional g ow h; spec al
analysis
REVIEWING EDITOR
Zhang Xibin, Monash
Uni e si y, AUSTRALIA
SUBJECTS
Social Sciences;
De elopmen S udies;
Economics and
De elopmen ; Economics,
Finance, Business &
Indus y; Economics;
Business, Managemen and
Accoun ing
1. In oduc ion
The speci ic objec i e o his s udy was o pe o m a spec al analysis o he G oss Domes ic P oduc o he
egions o he Cen al Fede al Dis ic o Russia o de ec he simila i y o dispa i ies in he egional de el-
opmen . We suppose his me hod o be a use ul addi ion o adi ional s a is ics analy ic ins umen s o
CONTACT Gulchex a Khalma jano a [email p o ec ed] Depa men o Regional Economics and Accoun ing, Fe ghana
S a e Uni e si y, Fe ghana, Uzbekis an.
ß2024 The Au ho (s). Published by In o ma UK Limi ed, ading as Taylo & F ancis G oup
This is an Open Access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/), which
pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed. The e ms on which his a icle has been
published allow he pos ing o he Accep ed Manusc ip in a eposi o y by he au ho (s) o wi h hei consen .
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE
2024, VOL. 12, NO. 1, 2350196
h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/23322039.2024.2350196
de e mine he exis ence o absence o cyclical dynamics in economic ac i i y in he named Dis ic . We
also in ended o de ine he limi a ions o he s udy. The implemen a ion o he me hod p oposed can sol e
he p oblem o designing an “e idence-based”mac oeconomic policy o egional de elopmen .
In he global con ex o economic and social sciences, he issue e ol es a ound he ins abili y and
unp edic abili y o cyclical p ocesses a a ious le els o adminis a i e and e i o ial o ganiza ion. The
p ima y challenge lies in he lack o cla i y in unde s anding he in e ac ion be ween na ional and
egional le els o hese cycles. Thus a , he e has been inadequa e comp ehension o how e en s and
p ocesses a he na ional le el in luence egional economic and social dynamics, and ice e sa.
Na ional and egional go e nmen s, as well as business s uc u es, o en base decisions on economic
and social o ecas s. Inaccu a e o ecas s can lead o ailu es and s ess o ci izens and households.
The e o e, he impo ance o unde s anding hese cyclical p ocesses o he de elopmen and implemen-
a ion o policies in he ealms o economics, social de elopmen , and egional planning is essen ial o
s abili y and e ec i e go e nance. Hence, he p oblem ha his esea ch seeks o add ess in ol es
un a eling he na u e and in e play o cyclical egula i ies a he na ional and egional le els, u ilizing
he "P ism" me hodology o he meso-le el. The s udy o egional dynamics is an impo an ask o he
o mula ion o s a e mac oeconomic policies aimed a minimizing he possible nega i e impac o he
cyclical de elopmen o he economy. The une en de elopmen o ede al en i ies is well known
(Economis , 2018), bu mos o he wo k on his opic is limi ed o ci ing s a is ical da a, compa ing
g ow h/decline a es, e c.
The objec i e is o use a p o en s a is ical ool, which, as we say below, p o ides an incomple e in o -
ma ion base o u he analysis. The main challenge aced by many s a es is he di e ences in egional
de elopmen . S a egic spa ial planning should be based on an analysis o he dynamics o egional
dynamics and he iden i ica ion o he causes o di e ences. This issue has been s udied by many
esea che s analyzing ends o g oss egional p oduc and simila indexes (S u n & Eps ein, 2021).
Hence, i is essen ial o examine de elopmen al imbalances wi hin he amewo k o economic
g ow h heo y, such as he Robe Solow heo y de eloped by Mankiw e al. (1992), as was done in he
wo k o Bu ako e al. (2019); hei pape also ‘ akes Robe Solow se iously’. This app oach has many
p oponen s and opponen s. Fo ins ance, Nelson and Win e (1990) con end ha Solow’s heo y o e s
limi ed explana o y powe o he obse ed p oduc i i y g ow h. We did no (and do no ) aim o c i icize
heo ies o economic g ow h, especially as ou s udy showed he ela i e closeness o hese a es in he
egions s udied du ing he pe iod unde in es iga ion. The egions analyzed ha e a simila in as uc u e
o economic g ow h in e ms o Robe Solow’s heo y: e e y egion has highe and seconda y oca-
ional educa ion ins i u ions, occupied by wha is called he ‘p oduc ion o knowledge’.
These educa ional ins i u ions (p ima ily highe educa ion ins i u ions) a e concen a ed in egional
cen e s, which co esponds o he signs o an e ec i e geog aphical concen a ion o in ellec ual esou -
ces. The esea ch s a es ha ‘cogni i e cen e s’(Rossi-Hansbe g e al., 2019) ha e o med, bu he e is
no p oduc i e e u n om hem. Some egions o he Cen al Fede al Dis ic managed o o e come a
peculia ‘middle-income ap’and show a highe a e o g ow h o g oss egional p oduc han o he s a
he same ime. The speci ic objec i e o his s udy was o complemen adi ional mac oeconomic
esea ch me hods wi h a spec al ime se ies analysis o he g oss egional p oduc . This is e en mo e
impo an , as he COVID-19 pandemic no only has con i med egional di e ences in de elopmen bu
has also added di e ences in he impac o he pandemic and he esul ing es ic i e measu es
obse ed in indi idual egions.
Conside ing a heo y, we can s a e an exis ing concep ual issue. Co eia e al. (2020) s a e ha ‘non-
pha maceu ical in e en ions’(NPI) minimized he ‘Spanish lu’consequences o he epidemic o
‘Spanish lu’in 1918 in ci ies o he Uni ed S a es; Lilley e al. (2020) a gue ha NPI did no ha e a posi-
i e impac on pos -pandemic eco e y in US ci ies. I is assumed ha he implemen a ion o a spec al
ime se ies analysis o he g oss egional p oduc can become a concep ual and empi ical esponse o
he ac ual call o ‘e idence-based policymaking’ ha is cu en ly inc easing (Bukha baye a e al., 2020;
Umi zako e al., 2019). Acco ding o Weible e al. (2020), ‘e idence-based policymaking’ eplaces no ma-
i e o ien a ions and poli ical expediency.
Conside ing he p o ided in o ma ion, he esea ch gap lies in he insu icien analysis o he in e -
ac ion be ween na ional and egional cycles, complica ing e idence-based policy o mula ion in he
2 M. DUBOVIK ET AL.
ealms o economics, social de elopmen , and egional planning. The mo i a ion o he s udy es s in
he necessi y o un eil he na u e o cyclic p ocesses wi hin he de elopmen o egional economies,
aiming o enhance he e ec i eness o egional de elopmen s a egies and acili a e in o med decision-
making in economic and social de elopmen sphe es. The iden i ied issue s ems om an inadequa e
unde s anding o he in e ac ion be ween na ional and egional le els o hese cycles, he eby compli-
ca ing he de elopmen o e ec i e de elopmen s a egies and e idence-based decision-making.
The ele ance and signi icance o his s udy lie in add essing he c i ical issue o inadequa e unde -
s anding o cyclic p ocesses in he de elopmen o egional economies. Un eiling hese cycles enables
he de elopmen o mo e e ec i e egional de elopmen s a egies and he o mula ion o in o med
decisions in he ealms o economics, social de elopmen , and egional planning. The applica ion o
spec al analysis in his esea ch ep esen s an inno a i e app oach ha aids in he iden i ica ion and
analysis o hese cyclic p ocesses wi h g ea e p ecision. Consequen ly, he ou comes o his s udy will
ha e a conside able impac on he o mula ion o egional de elopmen policies and will con ibu e o
s able and balanced economic g ow h.
The con ibu ion o his a icle lies in he applica ion o spec al analysis o in es iga e cyclic p ocesses
in he de elopmen o egional economies, pa icula ly wi hin he amewo k o he Cen al Fede al
Dis ic o Russia. This me hod enables he iden i ica ion o simila i ies o dispa i ies in he dynamics o
egional economic de elopmen . Thus, he a icle p oposes a no el app oach o analyzing hese p ocesses,
which is signi ican in he con ex o de eloping e ec i e s a egies o egional de elopmen and policy
o mula ion.
Hence, his s udy will con ibu e o an enhanced comp ehension o cyclical egula i ies and hei
in e play be ween he na ional and egional le els o he economy. This will aid in be e unde s anding
how e en s a he na ional le el impac egional dynamics and ice e sa.
Addi ionally, his esea ch has he po en ial o add ess some o he exis ing gaps h ough:
1. Expanding he olume o da a: Inc easing access o egional-le el da a and conduc ing mo e
de ailed analyses can help un a el complex dependencies.
2. Employing new me hods o analysis: Implemen ing s a e-o - he-a s a is ical and econome ic ana-
lysis me hods may lead o be e modeling and unde s anding o cyclical egula i ies.
3. Compa ing di e en egions: By compa ing di e se egions and sc u inizing hei in e connec ions, a
mo e comp ehensi e unde s anding o how cyclical egula i ies impac a ious pa s o he coun y
can be achie ed.
The esea ch indings can ha e p ac ical signi icance o policymake s, economis s, and decisions
ela ed o egional de elopmen and na ional s a egy. They can be u ilized o making managemen
decisions ha con ibu e o he e ec i e de elopmen o egions.
The limi a ions o p e ious esea ch in his a ea include insu icien da a and me hodological chal-
lenges. Howe e , his s udy aims o o e come hese limi a ions by employing new analy ical me hods
and expanding he scope o a ailable da a. Th ough he compa a i e analysis o di e se egions and he
examina ion o hei in e ela ions, ou objec i e is o ad ance comp ehension o cyclical phenomena a
bo h na ional and egional scales. This endea o seeks o p o ide a no ewo hy con ibu ion o he
explo a ion o his pi o al ace o socio-economic dynamics.
The p ima y aim o his esea ch is o de e mine he mos e ec i e me hod o ime se ies analysis in
de ec ing cyclical a ia ions wi hin he de elopmen o egional economies. Addi ionally, he p incipal
objec i e in ol es comp ehending he in e dependencies be ween na ional and egional le els o eco-
nomic and social p ocesses using he "P ism" me hodology o meso-le el analysis. The esea ch objec-
i es a e as ollows:
1. Analysis o cyclical phenomena a he na ional le el.
2. Analysis o cyclical phenomena a he egional le el.
3. De e mina ion o he in e ela ion be ween na ional and egional le els.
4. U iliza ion o he "P ism" me hodology o meso-le el analysis.
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 3
Resea ch hypo heses:
Hypo hesis 1: The e is a cyclical dynamics a he na ional le el ha in luences egional dynamics and ice e sa.
Hypo hesis 2: The “P ism”me hodology o he meso-le el enables be e de ec ion and analysis o cyclical
pa e ns han adi ional analysis me hods.
Hypo hesis 3: Regional peculia i ies and cha ac e is ics impac he deg ee o coincidence o cyclical pa e ns
be ween egions and he na ional le el.
The Sec ion 2 con ains an o e iew o he ecen s udies published in 2019–2021. In he Sec ion 3 we
desc ibe he da a on he g oss egional p oduc o he egions o he Cen al Fede al Dis ic o Russia
collec ed by he Russian Fede a ion Fede al S a e S a is ics Se ice. The Sec ion 4 con ains explo a o y
esul s o he da a analysis and he spec al analysis including as Fou ie ans o ma ion o he ime se -
ies o he Cen al Fede al Dis ic ’s g oss egional p oduc o he pe iod 1998–2019 ob ained by us. The
esea ch indings and limi a ions a e compa ed wi h simila s udies in he Sec ion 5. Ou policy implica-
ion and ecommenda ion o he p oposed me hod can be ound unde Sec ion 6.
2. Li e a u e e iew
The i s applica ions o spec al analysis o economic esea ch da e back o he mid-1960s, mos no ably
wo ks by Ne lo e (1964) and G ange (1966,1969) and G ange and Ha anak (1964) who won he 2003
Nobel P ize in Economics o de eloping ime se ies analysis echniques. The Cli e G ange app oach
ound i s con inua ion in a conside able amoun o li e a u e, including Mao Takongmo and Lebihan
(2021), dedica ed o he so-called ‘G ange causali y’in he co ela ion be ween go e nmen spending
and G oss Ex e nal P oduc ( he GDP) o he Uni ed S a es, as well as in Ye and Zhang (2018) on he
‘G ange causali y’be ween heal h ca e spending and economic g ow h in OECD coun ies.
A esoglu and Vilasuso (1999) used spec al analysis o s udy expo s and economic g ow h in he US.
Ha ey and Jaege (1993) showed ha he applica ion o s a is ical il e s (such as he Hod ick-P esco
il e ) o ime se ies can lead o a i icial cycles. Ex ensi e esea ch has shown cyclical pa e ns o eco-
nomic de elopmen (Owens & Sa e, 2005; Pollock, 2008). Hughes-Halle and Rich e (2004,2007)in
hei s udies used a spec al analysis o Eu opean business cycle dynamics. Ba o o a (2012), Kapounek
and Pomenko a (2010), and Ma
s
alek and Pom
enko
a(2010a,2010b,2011) conduc ed esea ch on
Eas e n Eu opean economies as pa o a spec al analysis. C oux e al. (1999,2005,2008) used spec al
analysis o es he hypo hesis ha he Eu opean Union can be conside ed as a single ma ke . We did
no ind pape s by Russian esea che s on he GDP dynamics and GRP in spec al analysis excep o
pape s by Ko o aye and Tsi el (2010), and Monakho and Chechu in (2012).
In he las ew yea s, he applica ion o spec al analysis ou side physics and chemis y has gained
popula i y in such sciences as epidemiology, demog aphy, and economics. In addi ion, he widesp ead
use o compu e languages o s a is ical da a analysis has also con ibu ed o he wide use o he
named me hod in da a analysis. Lea ing aside he s ic ly econome ic li e a u e and eso ing o a
b oade poin o iew, we can name he ollowing wo ks as in oduc o y o he me hodology:
Ha ing on and Rubold (2018), Jones (2018), and Amazonaws (2023).
Pa o he wo k used in he p epa a ion o he p esen esea ch is indi ec ly ela ed o he applica-
ion o spec al analysis o he s udy o he e olu ion o g oss egional p oduc and g oss domes ic
p oduc . This is a business cycle s udy on a a ie y o coun y da a (Al man e al., 2019; Ha a e al.,
2012). The ele ance o his app oach o ou s udy lies in he ac ha ecu ing cyclic pa e ns in
egional de elopmen can be iden i ied h ough spec al analysis.
The e is a g owing body o li e a u e ha ecognizes he cyclical de elopmen . Fe n
andez-Villa e de
and Gue
on-Quin ana (2020) con ain an ex ensi e e iew o he li e a u e on s udies o unce ain y
shocks and business cycles. We can men ion a ew pape s beginning wi h a s udy o dynamic co ela ion
be ween mone a y policy cycles, he inancial cycle, and he business cycle in China (Li e al., 2021; Liu
e al., 2020), in India (Saini e al., 2021); a esea ch on decomposi ion o s ochas ic ends in business cycles
4 M. DUBOVIK ET AL.
(Yang, 2020); a s udy o Ame ican business cycles in 1889–1913 (Jiang & Wede , 2021); a Bayesian analysis
o Taiwanese business cycle luc ua ions as pa o he dynamic s ochas ic gene al equilib ium model
(DSGE model) (Lin, 2021), as well as o he business cycles o de eloping coun ies (No z & Rosenk anz,
2021). Ada o (2021) applied he Bayesian app oach wi h mo e da a om 24 coun ies o he 1998–2012
pe iod. Ano he example o he applica ion o Bayesian s a is ics e ealed bo h a global business cycle
and ou egional ones. Eu opean, Asian, No h Ame ican, and La in Ame ican (Be ge e al., 2021).
An in e es ing de elopmen o he DSGE model in coun e cyclicali y s udies is he model, he key
elemen o which is he ‘home in o ma ion bias’(HIB) as opposed o he ‘ ull in o ma ion a ional expec -
a ions’(FIRE) (Iliopulos e al., 2021). The a emp o e ise he business cycle model based on he opo-
logical en opy app oach and he ‘cubic nonlinea in es men unc ion’unde aken by Mu~
noz-Guille mo
(2021) dese es close a en ion. Resea ch on cyclical de elopmen has gained p ominence in he las
wo yea s since he ou b eak o he COVID-19 pandemic. Conside ing he hypo hesis o he downwa d
end o he ac ual economic cycle, i is app op ia e o e iew he consequences o he co ona i us pan-
demic and he esul ing cyclical cons ain s. Empi ical esea ch in o he heal h e ec s o economic cycles
has been ca ied ou by Chai e al. (2021), Liu and Huang (2020), and Pu e al. (2021); Ca icchioli and
Pis o esi (2020) ha e in es iga ed he co ela ion be ween economic luc ua ions and mo ali y in I aly.
P e iously we es ed he hypo hesis o he p esence o cyclical de elopmen (Ki chin cycles, Jugla cycles)
in he egional economy o he B yansk egion (Dubo ik & Dmi ie , 2022). Fo his pu pose, we conduc ed
a spec al analysis o he g oss egional p oduc and he ou pu o he egional economy b anches, as well
as a end analysis o he egional economy b anches ha ha e a s a is ically signi ican co ela ion wi h he
g oss egional p oduc . P omising and wo hy o u he de elopmen is he me hodology used by Ros an
and Ros an (2019), who applied he capabili ies o spec al analysis o o ecas he dynamics o nominal and
eal g oss domes ic p oduc o Spain and he Eu ozone coun ies un il 2026, which allowed he named
au ho s o p esen a less op imis ic ision compa ed o he o icial poin o iew.
The hypo hesis is ha he use o spec al analysis o s udy g oss egional p oduc is mo e e ec i e han
con en ional s a is ical me hods. This will allow iden i ying pe iodic luc ua ions o his indica o , and he e-
o e he unde lying s able pa e ns o de elopmen o egional economies, o conduc a mo e meaning ul
coun e -cyclical policy and synch onize business cycles inhe en in egional, and ede al de elopmen . In
addi ion, he planned s udy is he i s a emp o apply spec al analysis o s udy he dynamics o indica-
o s cha ac e izing he economic de elopmen o Russia a he meso-le el. Spec al analysis o he likely
cyclical de elopmen o egions is use ul since i can make i possible o synch onize business cycles o
egions, and, he e o e, o de elop a mo e e ec i e economic policy, o example, in p ice and ax aspec s.
3. Me hods and ma e ials
3.1. Da a
Da a o his s udy we e collec ed using he Russian Fede a ion Fede al S a e S a is ics Se ice (FSSS)
websi e (Fede al S a e S a is ics Se ice o Russian Fede a ion, 2021). We used a compa ison me hod
(indica o s o he g oss egional p oduc o he cons i uen en i ies o he Russian Fede a ion ha a e
pa o he Cen al Fede al Dis ic ) o e ime annually ( om 1998 o 2019), s a is ics me hods, and
econome ics. GRP, as opposed o he GDP, is calcula ed in basic p ices, i.e., i includes subsidies o
p oduc s and does no include axes on p oduc s; does no ake in o accoun he ac i i ies o inancial
in e media ies; pa ially akes in o accoun he added alue c ea ed by he public adminis a ion.
The Cen al Fede al Dis ic o Russia is an adminis a i e en i y es ablished in 2000 on he e i o y o
he his o ical cen e o he coun y. I s a ea is 650,205 km
2
(3.8% o he e i o y o Russia), and he
popula ion o he dis ic is 40,334,532 (27.4% o he o al popula ion o Russia). The CFD has he high-
es popula ion densi y in he coun y (62.03 inhabi an s/km
2
) and he u ban popula ion is 80.46 pe cen
(Kim, 2021). The dis ic consis s o small bu densely popula ed egions. These indica o s, he absence
in he dis ic o signi ican quasi-p i a e la i undia and en e p ises ha pa asi ize he seeking o na u al
esou ce en om hyd oca bon ex ac ion, as well as he homogenei y o he de elopmen o i s con-
s i uen egions, excluding signi ican s a is ical ou lie s, make he dis ic a sui able subjec o analysis
o egional de elopmen o Russia.
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 5
3.2. Me hod o da a analysis
We calcula ed and in e p e ed ou cen al s anda dized momen s, as well as o he indica o s (SE
(S anda d E o ), Median (median is a measu e o cen al endency), MAD (Mean Absolu e De ia ion).
GRP g aphs, diag ams, and his og ams ha e been cons uc ed o show he indica o s dis ibu ion o he
analyzed indica o s among he subjec s (CFD egions) om 1998 o 2019. The model o spec al analysis
o g oss egional p oduc p oposed by he au ho s is applied o he dynamics o he abo e-men ioned
indica o in 14 egions o he Cen al Fede al Dis ic o Russia o 1998–2019.
Spec al analysis can be p esen ed as a mul iple eg ession p oblem, whe e he dependen a iable
obse ed in he se ies is he g oss egional p oduc , and he independen a iables a e he disc e e e-
quency cosine unc ion. The analysis o spec al densi y was conduc ed using Global Radia ion
Pe u ba ion (GRP) da a, wi h a pa icula ocus on spec al g aphs. These g aphs isually ep esen he
dis ibu ion o spec al powe ac oss di e en equency componen s in he GRP da a. The GRP da a
used in his analysis is sou ced om he Cen e o Hyd ome eo ology (CFD) in Russia.
The spec al powe densi y o each equency componen in he GRP da a is displayed on he e ical
axis (Y-axis) in he spec al g aphs, while he co esponding equencies a e ep esen ed on he ho izon al
axis (X-axis). These g aphs a e gene a ed using he Fas Fou ie T ans o m (FFT) me hod, which decom-
poses he GRP da a in o i s cons i uen equency componen s. Highe alues on he e ical axis (Y-axis)
indica e g ea e spec al powe a he co esponding equencies. This spec al analysis p o ides aluable
in o ma ion abou he dis ibu ion o ene gy ac oss di e en equency componen s in he GRP da a.
The equency ( ) o a sine o cosine unc ion is he numbe o cycles pe uni o ime (T) ha is
de ined as he du a ion o he ime in e al equi ed o a single comple e cycle.
Suppose ha we ha e a ime se ies o GRP x
o leng h n(le nbe an e en numbe ). We can ep e-
sen a ime se ies as a eg ession model x
, whe e n–1 is he p edic ed a iable (Eq. 1).
cos 2p
n
, sin 2p
n
,..., cos 2n=2−1
ðÞ
p
n
, sin 2n=2−1
ðÞ
n
, cos p
ðÞ
:(1)
p(pi) is a ma hema ical cons an , equal o 3.14,
is he ime a iable.
We ep esen he coe icien s o he eg ession ha a e de e mined a
1
,b
1
,…a
n/2-1
,b
n/2-1
,a
n/2
,
espec i ely, we can w i e x
as (Eq. 2).
x ¼a0þX
n=2−1
k¼1
½akcosð2pk =nÞþbksinð2pk =nÞ þ an=2cosðp Þ:(2)
The a iable "k" ep esen s an in ege index used in summa ion o inco po a e e ms wi h a ious e-
quencies and hei co esponding coe icien s in o he model o x_ .
The alues o cosine (a
k
) and sine (b
k
) ep esen he le el a which he co esponding unc ions a e
co ela ed wi h he da a o he ime se ies, in ou case he g oss egional p oduc . The ep esen ed
eg ession model is a disc e e Fou ie ans o m (‘Disc e e Fou ie ans o m’) o ime se ies. The Fou ie
ans o ma ion o ime se ies y
o cycle equency pin obse a ions o ncan be ep esen ed as (Eq. 3).
zp¼X
n−1
¼0
y expð−2pip =nÞ, (3)
whe e p¼0, …n–1, expexp ih
ðÞ
¼coshþsinh,z
p
is he Fou ie coe icien associa ed wi h he e-
quency p.
We es ed he ime se ies o s a iona i y using he Augmen ed Dickey-Fulle es , checking he alue
o coe icien ain he i s -o de au o eg essi e equa ion (4):
y ¼ay −1þe , (4)
6 M. DUBOVIK ET AL.
whe e y
is a ime se ies, a e
is an e o e m. I a¼1, hen he p ocess has a uni oo , so y
is no s a-
iona y. I jaj<1, hen y
is s a iona y.
Since he p ocess can be a highe -o de au o eg ession add lags o he i s di e ences and ob ain
he ollowing es model equa ion (5):
Dy ¼a1þa2−1ðÞy −1−a2Dy −1þe (5)
I he esul ing ime se ies has a one-uni oo , hen he i s di e ences a e s a iona y by de ini ion.
Table 1 demons a es he e inemen o equa ions and he inclusion o ci a ions o jus i y he selec-
ion o a iables.
These a iables and analysis me hods we e chosen o s udy he ime se ies o G oss Regional P oduc
(GRP) in he Cen al Fede al Dis ic o Russia o assess he a iabili y, cen al endency, and pe iodic luc-
ua ions in GRP da a. The selec ion o hese a iables and me hods is based on s a is ical and econome ic
app oaches, as well as an analysis o long- e m changes in economic ac i i y. Be o e pe o ming he
Augmen ed Dickey-Fulle es , we condense ou da a by emo ing he end om i and hen e-cen e
he ime se ies by gi ing i a mean o ze o. The es ou pu s a p- alue: i p<0.05, he ime se ies p obably
e u ns o he mean (i.e., i is s a iona y), whe eas p>0.05 p o ides no such e idence because we canno
ejec he null hypo hesis. When a ime se ies e u ns o he mean, i ends o e u n o i s long- un mean.
I he ime se ies is no e u ning o he mean, i may shi wi hou e e e u ning o he mean.
In addi ion, a co ela ion analysis was conduc ed among he annual GDP means.
Analyzes we e conduc ed using he R S a is ical language ( e sion 4.2.2; R Co e Team, 2022)on
Windows 10 x64 (build 18363) (Appendix 1).
4. Resul s
I was no ou in en ion o p o ide a de ailed analysis o he di e ences in he g oss egional p oduc o
he CFD, so hey a e omi ed om ou s udy. The esul s o he explo a o y da a analysis o he g oss
egional p oduc o 14 egions o he Cen al Fede al Dis ic a e shown in Tables 2 and 3.
All alues o a symme ical dis ibu ion a e posi i e, showing ha he mean is shi ed o he igh com-
pa ed o he median. The angle o inclina ion o he GRP suppo s his conclusion. Howe e , in 2009, he
skewness coe icien ook a nega i e alue (−0.05), indica ing a sligh le wa d skew, bu i is no a s ong
de ia ion. A e 2009, he skewness coe icien alues emained nega i e, also sugges ing a le wa d skew
in he dis ibu ion o he annual GDP. This means ha he mean GDP is ypically less han he median
alue. I implies ha he a e age annual GDP becomes less han he median alue a e 2009.
All ku osis alues a e nega i e, which means he ‘ la ’dis ibu ion o he GRP alues o he selec ed
egions in he analyzed pe iod ( hin ails and lowe peak).
Acco ding o he da a in Table 2, he CFD egions can be di ided as
4 qua ile (25% wi h he highes GRP): Tula, Ya osla l (1998–2019), T e (1998–2009), and Lipe sk
(1999–2019).
2–3 qua iles: Vladimi (1998–2009, 2014, 2017–2019), Ku sk (1998–2011, 2014–2019).
1 qua ile (25% wi h he lowes GRP): I ano o, Kos oma, O el, B yansk (1998–2019), Kaluga (1998–
2001, 2003–2007), Ryazan (1999–2000, 2008–2011, 2015–2019), Smolensk (1998, 2001–2005), 2008,
2010–2011, 2013), Tambo (1999, 2001–2004, 2006–2007, 2009, 2021–2013, 2015–2017, 2019).
Table 1. Jus i ica ions o a iable selec ion.
Va iable Jus i ica ion o selec ion
GRP Used as he dependen a iable as i e lec s economic ac i i y.
Yea Tempo al index o analyzing changes o e ime.
Coe icien s (a_k, b_k) Re lec he le el o co ela ion o cosine and sine unc ions wi h he GRP ime se ies da a.
F equencies Enable he analysis o pe iodic luc ua ions in GRP da a.
S anda d E o (SE) A measu e o da a a iabili y is used in assessing he accu acy o he analysis.
Median A measu e o he cen al endency o da a ha helps unde s and he dis ibu ion’s cen al alue.
Mean Absolu e De ia ion (MAD) A measu e o da a dispe sion ha akes in o accoun he absolu e di e ences be ween da a poin s
and he mean alue.
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 7
4. Risk managemen : Unde s anding he cyclical p ocesses in egional de elopmen allows o he
de elopmen o isk managemen s a egies. Policymake s and business leade s can make in o med
decisions, p eemp ing po en ial down u ns in egional economies.
5. Modeling u u e scena ios: Analysis o cyclical pa e ns can be employed o de elop models o
u u e de elopmen scena ios.
The indings o he s udy make a signi ican no el con ibu ion o he ield o egional economic
de elopmen , pa icula ly in he applica ion o spec al analysis o iden i y cyclical pa e ns in he G oss
Regional P oduc (GRP) wi hin he Cen al Fede al Dis ic o Russia. These esul s o e new oppo uni-
ies o unde s anding he pe iodici y, cohe ence, and o e all equency con en o GRP, which can be
aluable in iden i ying cyclical egula i ies in egional economies.
Compa ed o p e ious s udies, which ypically con ine hemsel es o he analysis o s a is ical da a
alone, his wo k employs spec al analysis o a deepe explo a ion o cyclical p ocesses. The u iliza ion
o spec al analysis in his con ex ep esen s an inno a i e app oach, allowing o addi ional insigh s
in o he s uc u e and dynamics o GRP in he egions.
The conclusions d awn ca y signi ican implica ions o a ious policy and p ac ical aspec s, pa icu-
la ly o he de elopmen o na ional de elopmen s a egies, op imiza ion o in es men decisions, o -
mula ion o egional g ow h s a egies, isk managemen , and o ecas ing o u u e de elopmen
scena ios. These esul s may p o e bene icial o economis s, policymake s, and go e nmen al bodies in
add essing issues o egional de elopmen and o mula ing na ional s a egies.
Hence, his s udy can be conside ed a aluable ins umen o policymake s, economis s, and go e n-
men al bodies when dealing wi h ma e s abou egional de elopmen and he o mula ion o na ional
s a egies. Jawadi e al. (2022) used qua e da a o wo indica o s measu ing inancial and business
cycles; Iye omi e al. (2020) also used qua e da a om he USA. We ha e encoun e ed a limi a ion in
he p esen esea ch in he s a is ical base o analysis. Howe e , we belie e ha he p oposed model o
spec al ime se ies analysis o he g oss egional p oduc could be u he de eloped and e ined in ou
nex wo k. Fu he esea ch is needed o compa e he GDP and GRP o he Russian egions acco ding o
qua e da a. Due o he lack o he qua e da a p o ided by he Fede al S a e S a is ics Se ice o he
Russian Fede a ion (2021), his s udy canno p o ide a comp ehensi e e iew o such a compa ison,
which is a limi a ion o he s udy.
5. Discussions
In complex social sys ems, mac o-le el s uc u es and pa e ns a e s able; bu hey a e no explici a he
mic o le el. Acco dingly, he mic o-mac o dicho omy “skips” he meso le el, which connec s he ac i -
i ies and in e ac ions o a ious ac o s. Such s uc u es and pa e ns include, o example, he cyclical
de elopmen o he economy, which inds i sel a he le el o he coun y’s economy, bu he p esence
o cycles a he meso le el is a deba able phenomenon, and, he e o e, i s diagnosis is among he op-
ical and p omising esea ch asks. Ou iew is ha i is necessa y o supplemen he adi ional me hods
o s udying economic dynamics wi h o he , in e alia, spec al analysis o he g oss egional p oduc , i.e.,
meso-le el analysis. The g aphs in Figu es 6–8do no p o ide an exhaus i e ep esen a ion o he spec-
al a ia ions wi hin ou model.
Ou p e ious s udy did no ind a signi ican co ela ion be ween inno a ion ac i i y in one egion
and g ow h in he co esponding GRP (Chomen, 2022), while in OECD coun ies cyclical dynamics in
RandD ac i i y, inno a ion, and pa en ac i i y co ela ion wi h he GDP dynamics (Ahmad, 2021; Zhang
& Ye, 2022). A emp s o ind a co ela ion be ween global GDP g ow h and pa en ac i i y h ough
spec al analysis (Monakho & Chechu in, 2012; Zhang & Ye, 2022) ha e no been success ul; on he
o he hand, Ko o aye and Tsi el (2010) ha e been able o de ec ‘Kond a ie wa es’using spec al ana-
lysis o he wo ld GDP (Leal & Ma ques, 2022).
Spec al analysis o he likely cyclical de elopmen o he egions is use ul because i may make pos-
sible he synch oniza ion o business cycles (and he g aphs abo e indica e hei discon inui y) o he
egions, and hence he o mula ion o mo e e icien economic policies, o example, in p ice and ax
e ms (Angele os e al., 2020). P ice mechanisms ha e limi ed po en ial o s abilizing economies h ough
14 M. DUBOVIK ET AL.
coun e cyclical policies; he in e ac ion be ween p ice and in es men mechanisms o adjus ing o cycli-
cali y can gene a e luc ua ions and cycles (Gao & Gong, 2020). A simila p oblem is aced by he eco-
nomic au ho i ies o a uni ed Eu ope (Belke e al., 2017), especially as mone a y policy ins umen s
inc ease cyclicali y bu ha e asymme ic e ec s ha a e mo e isible in de eloping coun ies (Hang &
Xue, 2020). By con as , cyclical side e ec s a e dis ibu ed symme ically, and business cycles in
Eu opean coun ies ha e become mo e synch onized since he G ea Recession (A
cabi
c&
Sk inja i
c,
2021).
Equally impo an in he pu sui o p esen esea ch is he cons uc ion o a p edic i e model o he
ime se ies o he g oss egional p oduc . Typical o ecas ing me hods (ARIMA models as an example)
a e buil on assump ions such as he s a iona i y o ime se ies and he no mali y o hei esiduals. As
we men ioned abo e dis ibu ional assump ions o he GRP a e beyond no mali y. Spec al analysis ha
does no depend on s a iona y and non-linea assump ions could be e y use ul o modeling and o e-
cas ing economic da a.
Fo Keynes-based economic heo y, i is adi ional o use mac o- and mic o-le els as he basic ca e-
go ies o he hie a chical s uc u e o economics, e lec ing he hie a chical na u e o he e olu iona y
p ocess. The designa ion o he meso-le el as a s and-alone s udy emains con o e sial in economic sci-
ence. We belie e ha he di e ence be ween he cyclical de elopmen o he s a e and he indi idual
egion is a con incing a gumen in a o o he need o abandon he bina y s uc u e o he economy
and he ansi ion o he ina y logic o esea ch: mac o–meso–mic o le els. The disc epancy be ween
economic dynamics (g oss domes ic p oduc and g oss egional p oduc ) allows us o asse ha he
meso-le el is he key epis emic cons uc linking mac o- and mic o-le el esea ch; o he Russian econ-
omy, i is he le el o he egion.
The discon inui y we ha e obse ed in he cyclical de elopmen o he analyzed egions is also in e -
es ing in ha he es ablishmen o he common Eu opean cu ency has led o a signi ican inc ease in
he synch oniza ion o Eu opean coun ies, e en in coun ies whe e he eu o was no immedia ely in o-
duced (Campos e al., 2019), and Russian egions, e en in he single economic space, do no display
such synch ony. Blino a e al. (2021) e ealed a cyclical eac ion in unemploymen a es in he Russian
egions. Almeida e al. (2020) pe o med a simila s udy on egional unemploymen and he sensi i i y
o he economy o cyclic dynamics in Spain; Hu e (2021) iden i ied cyclical seasonal pa e ns in seeking
employmen in Ge many. Thus, he iden i ica ion o cyclic dynamics in Russian da a is an impo an sci-
en i ic ask.
Un o una ely, we a e no awa e o o he s udies o he dynamics o he g oss egional p oduc o
he Cen al Fede al Dis ic using he spec al analysis and Fas Fou ie ans o ma ion me hod. In his
connec ion, we we e obliged o make a compa ison wi h o he s udies pe o med on o he da a, which
makes i impossible o d aw conclusions abou he adequacy o he me hod chosen and he co ec ness
o he esul s ob ained. We posi ha he disc epancy in he cyclical dynamics o he Russian economy
as a whole and he egions o he Cen al Fede al Dis ic , in pa icula , can be a ibu ed o he peculia -
i ies o Russia’s de elopmen in he ea ly p e-indus ial e a compa ed o Eu ope in he same pe iod.
The au ho s a gue ha he sp ead o ag icul u e in Russia is explained by di usion heo y, wi hin
which i was no he idea o ag icul u e ha was sp ead, bu a he he a me s hemsel es. Conside ing
he ela i ely homogeneous a ming en i onmen , as well as he limi ed a ie y o c ops and signi ican
dis ances be ween se lemen s, he economic space o he coun y was su icien ly disjoin ed. This
esul ed in weak specializa ion o egions and, consequen ly, slow de elopmen o c a and
domes ic ade, as well as delayed u ban g ow h compa ed o Eu ope. The signi ican dis ances be ween
se lemen s in he coun y also had a nega i e e ec . These ac o s a e wha is e e ed o as “pa h-
dependence”in he amewo k o he new ins i u ional economic heo y, which de e mined he opo-
logical disjoin edness o he coun y’s e i o y, con i med by he “Global Connec edness Index”(Al man
e al., 2019). In hese condi ions, he “spa ial compe i ion” o consume s, which led o he Indus ial
Re olu ion and economic g ow h in B i ain bu no in China (Desme e al., 2017, pp. 7–16), as well as
he “ma ke o ideas”, which enables he eme gence and implemen a ion o inno a ions (Moky , 2007),
he sp ead o knowledge and ade (Tisdell & S izze o, 2015, pp. 18–19), he o ma ion o human capi al,
and subsequen ly, endogenous economic de elopmen (Rome , 1990,2015), a e ex emely challenging.
Mode n sa elli e images o nigh ime illumina ion o he su ace o Russia (Ga ne , 2017) compa ed o
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 15
simila images o o he coun ies (Adhika i & Dhi al, 2021; Mendez & San os-Ma quez, 2021; Qiao-Li
e al., 2021).
In gene al, he as majo i y o he egions s udied did no change hei de elopmen ajec o y du -
ing he en i e pe iod unde e iew. We assume ha he e is clea e idence o he exis ence o a ‘ ack
e ec ’ esul ing om he p e ious his o ical expe ience o he egions. This con i ms ou o iginal hypo h-
esis abou ‘ he low-income ap. Acco ding o Taymaz (2022) a egion in “Con e gence Club 1”had, on
a e age, 8 imes highe GDP pe capi a han a egion in “Con e gence Club 4”in 2017. Income di e en-
ces ac oss Russian egions a e qui e pe sis en , and low-income egions a e no able o imp o e hei
ela i e posi ions (Taymaz, 2022, p. 481; Windle e al., 2023).
We ound ha among all he indus ies only he ho el and es au an business ha e he same end
b eak poin wi h GRP in 2013. In he named indus y he e is one mo e b eakpoin o he end in 2015;
he end o he g oss egional p oduc in he men ioned pe iod does no ha e a b eakpoin . We belie e
ha he esul s o he analysis do no con i m he ini ial hypo hesis abou he exis ence o Ki chin cycles,
and Jugla cycles in he economy o he B yansk egion in he obse ed pe iod.
A high co ela ion o business cycles is usually seen as a key c i e ion o an op imal cu ency a ea,
o example, he Eu opean Union. The esul s o he spec al analysis ob ained by he au ho s do no
gi e a clea answe abou he exis ence o sus ainable cycles in meso-le el de elopmen ; ne e heless,
hey ( esul s) can se e as a basis o u he in-dep h s udy o he subjec o he s udy, and imp o e he
p oposed model o spec al analysis o he g oss egional p oduc . We ind i p omising o apply he
heo y o he economic cycle o meso-le el in he in e p e a ion o he causes o he disp opo ional
egional de elopmen in Russia.
6. Conclusions
I has been es ablished ha he as majo i y (10 ou o 14) o hese egions emain in he lowes qua -
ile o GRP h oughou he analysis pe iod; 2 egions a e in a iably in he qua ile wi h he highes GRP.
I is possible o s a e wi h con idence he exis ence o a ‘pa h dependence’p ede e mined by he his o -
ically es ablished posi ions (and specializa ion) o egions in he Russian alue chain, as well as he exis -
ence o a ‘low-income ap’ ha he egions o he i s qua ile ha e no been able o o e come,
despi e he cons an upwa d end in hei g oss egional p oduc .
Ou analysis has shown ha he dis ibu ion o g ow h in he g oss egional p oduc is no s a is ic-
ally no mal and he e o e i is necessa y o complemen adi ional na a i e s a is ics wi h o he me h-
ods. The esul s o ou spec al analysis con i med ou hypo hesis abou he use ulness o his me hod.
An in oduced model o spec al analysis o GRP ea s i as a speci ic case o he eg ession model
using disc e e Fou ie ans o ma ion.
Based on he conduc ed esea ch, ecommenda ions o policymake s can be delinea ed. Conside ing
he pe sis en end o low le els o egional p oduc in ce ain egions jux aposed wi h consis en ly
high le els in o he s, we ecommend he de elopmen o a na ional s a egy encompassing specialized
p og ams o suppo and os e he egions in he lowes qua ile o egional p oduc . Policymake s
should ac i ely incen i ize in es men s in egions wi h low le els o egional p oduc , di ec ing inancial
and o he esou ces o bols e economic g ow h and in as uc u al de elopmen . I is c ucial o conside
measu es suppo ing en ep eneu ship and c ea ing a o able business condi ions in egions wi h low
le els o egional p oduc , which will aid in s imula ing economic de elopmen . The e is a necessi y o
de elop p og ams and p ojec s aimed a mode nizing and di e si ying he economies o egions,
he eby educing hei dependence on speci ic sec o s and ma ke s. Policymake s should ac i ely
de elop and implemen isk managemen s a egies o p e en po en ial down u ns in egional econo-
mies and ensu e s able de elopmen .
One o he p ima y cons ain s o his s udy is he absence o qua e ly da a o compa ing he GDP
and GRP o Russian egions. Ha ing access o hese da a is c ucial, as hey can p o ide a mo e de ailed
and dynamic ep esen a ion o economic p ocesses a he egional le el. The p ospec o u u e
esea ch lies in e ining he spec al analysis me hod o a mo e p ecise and eliable analysis o GRP
dynamics a he egional le el.
16 M. DUBOVIK ET AL.
Disclosu e s a emen
The au ho s epo he e a e no compe ing in e es s o decla e.
Funding
This esea ch did no ecei e any speci ic g an om unding agencies in he public, comme cial, o no - o -p o i
sec o s.
Abou he au ho s
Mayya Dubo ik Ph.D. in Economics, Associa e P o esso , P o esso o he Depa men o Economic Theo y,
Plekhano Russian Uni e si y o Economics, Moscow, Russia. He esea ch in e es s include economic heo y, eco-
nomic me hodology, p ope y and cash inequali y o s a es and egions, sus ainable de elopmen , echnological
p og ess and inno a ion, mode n economic g ow h. She published books on Mac oeconomics, Digi al economics
e c. He wo ks ha e been published in such jou nals as C ea i e Economics, Ves nik o Plekhano Russian Uni e si y
o Economics, Financial Managemen , D ucke ’s Bulle in and o he s.
Se gey Dmi ie Ph.D. in Economics, Resea che , Associa e P o esso a he Depa men o Economics, Cus oms,
In o ma ion Technology and Na u al Science Disciplines o he B yansk B anch o he Plekhano Russian Uni e si y
o Economics, Russia, B yansk. His esea ch in e es s include con e gen and di e gen p ocesses o egional eco-
nomic de elopmen , inequali y be ween coun ies and egions, spec al analysis in economics, p oblems o me hod-
ology o economic science. He has published a book on he heo y o inno a i e de elopmen om a
Schumpe e ian economic g ow h pe spec i e. His wo ks ha e been published in such jou nals as C ea i e
Economics, Issues o Inno a i e Economics, Ves nik o Plekhano Russian Uni e si y o Economics and o he s.
Na alya Obido skaya Ph.D. in Economics, Head o he Depa men o Ci il, C iminal Law and P ocedu e and
Financial and Legal Disciplines, Russia, B yansk. He esea ch in e es s include ax and cus oms egula ion, legal
egula ion o en ep eneu ial ac i i y and digi al economy. The esul s o he esea ch ha e been published in scien-
i ic jou nals such as Kan , Inno a ion and In es men , Financial Managemen and o he s.
Gulchex a Khalma jano a Ph.D. in Economics, Head o he Depa men o Wo ld and Regional Economics, Fe ghana
S a e Uni e si y, Uzbekis an, Fe ghana. He esea ch in e es s include egional economics, ag a ian sec o de elop-
men , in es men policy, and economic g ow h. He wo ks ha e been published in such jou nals as Academicia: an
in e na ional mul idisciplina y esea ch jou nal, Scien i ic p og ess, P oblems o Economics, Educa ion and Science in
Russia and ab oad and o he s.
Da a a ailabili y s a emen
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Appendix 1 R packages o s a is ical calcula ions
The packages ep ( e sion 1.1.6; Ange e e al., 2023), mno m ( e sion 2.1.1; Azzalini & Genz, 2022), mag i
( e sion 2.0.3; Bache & Wickham, 2022), e ec size ( e sion 0.8.3.6; Ben-Shacha e al., 2020), pkgcon ig ( e sion 2.0.3;
Cs
a di, 2019), da a. able ( e sion 1.14.8; Dowle & S ini asan, 2023), ansi ( e sion 1.0.4; Gaslam, 2023), lub ida e ( e -
sion 1.9.2; G olemund & Wickham, 2011), able ( e sion 1.4.4; Hun ing on-Klein, 2023), ki ( e sion 0.0.13; Jacob,
2023), ggpub ( e sion 0.6.0; Kassamba a, 2023), collapse ( e sion 1.9.6; K an z, 2023a), as e se ( e sion 0.3.1;
K an z, 2023b), pa ame e s ( e sion 0.21.1; L€
udecke e al., 2020), pe o mance ( e sion 0.10.4; L€
udecke, Ben-Shacha ,
e al., 2021), easys a s ( e sion 0.6.0.8; L€
udecke e al., 2022), see ( e sion 0.8.0; L€
udecke, Pa il, e al., 2021), insigh
( e sion 0.19.3; L€
udecke e al., 2019), bayes es R ( e sion 0.13.0.10; Makowski e al., 2019), modelbased ( e sion
0.8.6.3; Makowski e al., 2020a,2020b), epo ( e sion 0.5.7; Makowski e al., 2023), co ela ion ( e sion 0.8.4;
Makowski e al., 2022), ibble ( e sion 3.2.1; M€
ulle & Wickham, 2023), da awiza d ( e sion 0.8.0; Pa il e al., 2022),
u 8 ( e sion 1.2.3; Pe y, 2023), skim ( e sion 2.1.5; Wa ing e al., 2022), ggplo 2 ( e sion 3.4.2; Wickham e al.,
2016), s ing ( e sion 1.5.0; Wickham, 2022), o ca s ( e sion 1.0.0; Wickham, 2023), idy e se ( e sion 2.0.0; Wickham
e al., 2019), eadxl ( e sion 1.4.2; Wickham & B yan, 2023), use his ( e sion 2.2.1; Wickham, B yan, e al., 2023), dply
( e sion 1.1.2; Wickham, R. F anc¸ois, e al., 2023), pu ( e sion 1.0.1; Wickham & Hen y, 2023), ead ( e sion 2.1.4;
Wickham, J. H. R. F ancois, e al., 2023), de ools ( e sion 2.4.5; Wickham, Hes e , e al., 2022), gene ics ( e sion 0.1.3;
Wickham, Kuhn, e al., 2022), idy ( e sion 1.3.0; Wickham, Vaughan, e al., 2023), psych ( e sion 2.3.6; Re elle, 2023)
and kableEx a ( e sion 1.3.4; Zhu, 2021).
22 M. DUBOVIK ET AL.
