Hjelse h, Ida Ne ik; Liaudinskas, Ka olis
Resea ch Repo
Reco d inc ease in paymen ema ks: A ed lag o
No wegian i ms?
S a Memo, No. 9/2024
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
No ges Bank, Oslo
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Hjelse h, Ida Ne ik; Liaudinskas, Ka olis (2024) : Reco d inc ease in paymen
ema ks: A ed lag o No wegian i ms?, S a Memo, No. 9/2024, ISBN 978-82-8379-344-4, No ges
Bank, Oslo,
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /11250/3170207
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/310425
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S a memo
Reco d Inc ease in Paymen Rema ks: A Red Flag o
No wegian Fi ms?
27.11.2024
Ida Ne ik Hjelse h
Senio ad ise , Financial s abili y
Ka olis Liaudinskas
Resea che ,
Fo skning, PPO
9 | 2024
No ges Bank S a memo 1
S a Memos p esen epo s and documen a ion w i en by s a membe s and
a ilia es o No ges Bank, he cen al bank o No way. Views and conclusions
exp essed in S a Memos should no be aken o ep esen he iews o
No ges Bank.
© 2024 No ges Bank
The ex may be quo ed o e e ed o, p o ided ha due acknowledgemen is
gi en o sou ce.
S a Memo inneholde u edninge og dokumen asjon sk e e a No ges Banks
ansa e og and e o a e e ilkny e No ges Bank. Synspunk e og konklusjone
i a beidene e ikke nød endig is ep esen a i e o No ges Banks.
© 2024 No ges Bank
De kan si e es a elle hen ises il de e a beid, gi a o a e og No ges Bank
oppgis som kilde.
ISSN 1504-2596 (online)
ISBN 978-82-8379-344-4 (online)
Reco d Inc ease in Paymen Rema ks: A Red Flag o
No wegian Fi ms?∗
Ida Ne ik Hjelse h and Ka olis Liaudinskas
Abs ac
This s a memo documen s a de ailed analysis o he paymen ema k da abase o be e
unde s and whe he he ecen inc ease in paymen ema ks signals an impending wa e o
bank up cies. We ind ha he numbe o high-bank up cy- isk i ms is g owing in p opo ion
o he o al numbe o i ms wi h ema ks. This sugges s ha he ecen inc ease in paymen
ema ks is likely o p edic a p opo ional ise in bank up cies and should he e o e be closely
moni o ed.
1 In oduc ion
When a i m ails o make imely paymen s o a u ili y p o ide , a supplie o goods o se ices,
a bank, o ax au ho i ies, and is la e by a ce ain numbe o days, his is eco ded in a da abase
o paymen ema ks. While a missed paymen may some imes be acciden al, i can also indi-
ca e se ious liquidi y o e en sol ency issues wi hin he i m. His o ically, paymen ema ks and
bank up cies in No way ha e been easonably co ela ed, bu hei ends ha e di e ged since 2018.
The easons o his di e gence a e no ye ully unde s ood, bu one possible con ibu o is he
adop ion o IFRS 9 accoun ing s anda ds, which migh ha e led banks and o he inancial ins i-
u ions o ecognize c edi losses ea lie , po en ially esul ing in mo e paymen ema ks. Ano he
ac o is go e nmen suppo du ing he Co id-19 pandemic, which migh ha e caused bank up cies
o decline mo e sha ply han he numbe o i ms wi h paymen ema ks. Now, paymen ema ks
a e a an all- ime high, while bank up cies ha e no ye e u ned o p e-pandemic le els. This
aises an impo an ques ion: does he cu en g ow h in paymen ema ks, which began wi h he
ecen mone a y policy igh ening cycle, signal an impending wa e o bank up cies?
∗The iews and conclusions in his publica ion a e hose o he au ho s and a e no necessa ily sha ed by No ges
Bank. They should he e o e no be epo ed as he iews o No ges Bank. Any e o s and omissions a e he sole
esponsibili y o he au ho s.
We hank To bjø n Hægeland, Sa a Ki keby Thu e, Nina La sson Mid hjell, and Damiano Maggi o hei
aluables commen s.
1
In his s a memo, we add ess his ques ion h ough a de ailed analysis o he paymen e-
ma k da abase. We begin by examining he de elopmen o paymen ema ks o i ms ha wen
bank up be ween Janua y 2013 and Oc obe 2024. The analysis iden i ies key c i e ia o de e -
mining high-bank up cy- isk i ms, such as he numbe o ema ks, he NOK amoun associa ed
wi h hose ema ks, and he g ow h a es o bo h he numbe and he NOK amoun o ema ks.
We hen es he e ec i eness o hese c i e ia in p edic ing bank up cy and analyze ecen ends
in he numbe o i ms ha mee he high-bank up cy- isk c i e ia. We ind ha he numbe
o high-bank up cy- isk i ms is inc easing in p opo ion o he o al numbe o i ms wi h ou -
s anding paymen ema ks. This sugges s ha bank up cies may ise p opo iona ely as well, and
he e o e, he de elopmen o paymen ema ks should be closely moni o ed.
Gi en he p opo iona e g ow h in he numbe o high- isk i ms, we p opose a simple me hod
o o ecas he agg ega e numbe o bank up cies o e a one-yea ho izon. We demons a e ha ,
his o ically, his p edic ion me hod has been easonably accu a e, excep du ing he pe iod om
2018 o 2021, when a sudden di e gence be ween paymen ema ks and bank up cies occu ed.
Since 2022, howe e , he g ow h a es o paymen ema ks and bank up cies ha e ealigned and he
p edic ion me hod has egained i s accu acy. The me hod p edic s ha he numbe o bank up cies
will be 11 pe cen highe nex yea ( om No embe 2024 o Oc obe 2025) compa ed o las yea
( om No embe 2023 o Oc obe 2024).
The emainde o he memo is s uc u ed as ollows: Sec ion 2 p esen s he da a; Sec ion 3
analyzes high-bank up cy- isk i ms; Sec ion 4 p oposes a p edic ion me hod o he agg ega e
numbe o bank up cies; and Sec ion 5 concludes.
2 Da a and desc ip i e s a is ics
This s a memo analyzes he da abase o paymen ema ks collec ed by Dun & B ads ee - a
c edi bu eau (k edi opplysningsby ˚a) ope a ing in No way - and deli e ed o No ges Bank on
a mon hly basis. Fo each paymen ema k, we obse e he names and ID numbe s o bo h he
deb o and he c edi o , he NOK amoun associa ed wi h he ema k, he da e om which he
ema k is ac i e, and he da e when he ema k was closed (e.g., when a missed paymen is paid).
As o Oc obe 2024, he da abase con ained 8,310,707 ema ks. Table 1shows hei dis ibu ion
ac oss di e en ypes. We p ima ily ocus on Inkasso (deb collec ion) ema ks, which cons i u e
he majo i y o he o al ema ks. To analyze how Inkasso ema ks may p edic bank up cies, we
also use Konku s (bank up cy) and T angsoppløsning ( o ced liquida ion) ema ks.
All i ms ha a e egis e ed in No way and hus ha e a No wegian o ganiza ion numbe a e sus-
cep ible o en e he da abase i hey ecei e a paymen ema k. As o Oc obe 2024, he da abase
con ains 6,283,912 Inkasso ema ks issued be ween 340,808 deb o i ms and 98,255 c edi o i ms.
The oldes Inkasso ema k in he da abase was ac i e om 2007 Feb ua y 6, bu he numbe o
ea ly ema ks is ela i ely low. The numbe o newly issued Inkasso ema ks inc eased sha ply
2
om Decembe 2010 o Janua y 2011 and has g own s eadily since hen. The e o e, we assume
ha he da a is comp ehensi e and ha i s quali y can be us ed om Janua y 2011 onwa d. The
numbe o i ms wi h a leas one ou s anding Inkasso ema k a mon h-end has inc eased om
13,257 in Janua y 2011 o 38,789 in Oc obe 2024.
Type o ema ks Numbe o ema ks
Inkasso (Deb collec ion) 6,283,912
U legg (Wa an s o asse a es ) 273,015
In e il u legg (Indica ions o no asse s emaining) 240,928
Leasinga ale (Leasing ag eemen s) 224,226
Fac o inga ale (Fac o ing ag eemen s) 186,332
Konku s (Bank up cies) 128,090
T angsoppløsning (Fo ced liquida ions) 24,570
O he 949,634
To al 8,310,707
Table 1: Numbe s o di e en ema ks in he da abase as o Oc obe 2024.
Figu e 1shows he numbe o ou s anding Inkasso ema ks a he end o each mon h since
Janua y 2011, b oken down by deb o indus y. Since 2018, his numbe has been on a ise,
eaching a o al o 228,808 ema ks wi h 4 billion NOK ou s anding as o Oc obe 2024. The
g ow h has p ima ily been d i en by he cons uc ion indus y, while he p opo ions ac oss o he
indus ies ha e emained ela i ely s able.
Figu e 1: Numbe o ou s anding ema ks, by deb o indus y
Sou ce: Dun & B ads ee and No ges Bank
Table 2p o ides he numbe s o ou s anding Inkasso ema ks, b oken down by deb o and
3
c edi o indus ies as o Oc obe 2024. Bo h deb o s and c edi o s a e anked by he NOK amoun
associa ed wi h he ema ks. The la ges deb o indus ies a e cons uc ion, comme cial eal es a e,
and e ail. The la ges c edi o indus ies by NOK amoun a e banks, o he inancial ins i u ions,
and e ail. C edi o indus ies such as in o ma ion, public adminis a ion, and elec ici y issue
many Inkasso ema ks, bu hey a e ela i ely small in e ms o NOK amoun s. The a e age
ema k size, calcula ed by di iding he o al NOK amoun by he o al numbe o Inkasso ema ks
is equal o 17,181 NOK.
Cons uc ion 748 (19%) 49 (21%) Banks 900 (23%) 3 (1%)
Comme cial_ eal_es a e 631 (16%) 23 (10%) Finance 621 (16%) 33 (14%)
Re ail 544 (14%) 44 (19%) Re ail 528 (13%) 26 (11%)
P o essional_se ices 284 (7%) 18 (8%) Missing 286 (7%) 17 (7%)
P ope y_de elopmen 242 (6%) 6 (3%) P o essional_se ices 283 (7%) 14 (6%)
Accomoda ion 221 (6%) 20 (9%) Cons uc ion 231 (6%) 4 (2%)
T anspo 212 (5%) 13 (6%) In o ma ion 199 (5%) 44 (19%)
Manu ac u ing 210 (5%) 10 (4%) Elec ici y 158 (4%) 17 (7%)
In o ma ion 205 (5%) 8 (3%) Comme cial_ eal_es a e 148 (4%) 3 (1%)
Business_se ices 187 (5%) 13 (5%) Manu ac u ing 143 (4%) 5 (2%)
O he 114 (3%) 6 (3%) Business_se ices 136 (3%) 12 (5%)
Cul u al 88 (2%) 4 (2%) T anspo 94 (2%) 14 (6%)
Ag icul u e 65 (2%) 4 (2%) Public_adminis a ion 63 (2%) 25 (11%)
Heal h 49 (1%) 3 (1%) Accomoda ion 27 (1%) 1 (1%)
O he _se ices 42 (1%) 4 (2%) Wa e 25 (1%) 3 (1%)
Teaching 30 (1%) 2 (1%) Heal h 20 (1%) 2 (1%)
Finance 25 (1%) 1 (0%) O he _se ices 17 (0%) 5 (2%)
Wa e 13 (0%) 1 (0%) Cul u al 14 (0%) 1 (0%)
Elec ici y 12 (0%) 0 (0%) Ag icul u e 11 (0%) 0 (0%)
Mining_excep _oil 10 (0%) 0 (0%) P ope y_de elopmen 8 (0%) 0 (0%)
Missing 1 (0%) 0 (0%) O he 7 (0%) 0 (0%)
Public_adminis a ion 0 (0%) 0 (0%) Teaching 5 (0%) 0 (0%)
Banks 0 (0%) 0 (0%) Mining_excep _oil 4 (0%) 0 (0%)
To al 3 931 (100%) 229 (100%) To al 3 931 (100%) 229 (100%)
2024 Oc obe
m NOK
numbe ('000)
m NOK
numbe ('000)
Deb o s
C edi o s
Table 2: Numbe s o Inkasso ema ks wi h associa ed NOK amoun s by deb o and c edi o
indus ies as o Oc obe 2024. The p opo ions ela i e o he o al o all indus ies a e epo ed
in b acke s.
3 Inkasso ema ks indica e high-bank up cy- isk i ms
Figu e 2shows ha he sha e o i ms in No way wi h a leas one ou s anding Inkasso ema k
(12-mon h mo ing a e age) has eached 9.2 pe cen , while he sha e o i ms ha wen bank up
wi hin he pas yea has eached 1.4 pe cen . Bo h sha es used o e ol e simila ly, bu began
4
Figu e 2: Sha es o i ms in No way wi h ou s anding Inkasso ema ks and bank up cies
Sou ce: Dun & B ads ee and No ges Bank
o di e ge in 2018.1Wi h go e nmen suppo du ing he Co id-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, he
di e gence widened u he , as he sha e o bank up cies d opped signi ican ly mo e han he sha e
o i ms wi h paymen ema ks. In he wake o ecen mone a y policy igh ening, he sha e o
i ms wi h paymen ema ks has eached new highs, while he sha e o bank up cies has ye o
e u n o p e-pandemic le els.2Gi en he di e gence be ween ema ks and bank up cies, i is
unclea whe he he ecen inc ease in ema ks signals an inc eased bank up cy isk among i ms.
To in es iga e how Inkasso ema ks can help p edic bank up cies a he i m le el, we ocus
on all i ms ha ecei ed hei i s Inkasso ema k in 2013 o la e .3The i ms a e di ided in o
six g oups based on he ime be ween hei i s Inkasso ema k and he poin a which hey go
bank up : wi hin he i s yea , he second yea , he hi d yea , he ou h yea , he i h yea o
la e , and hose ha ne e wen bank up du ing he sample pe iod.
1While in es iga ing he exac causes o his di e gence is beyond he scope o his s a memo, one possible
con ibu o is he adop ion o he IFRS 9 accoun ing s anda ds in No way in Janua y 2018. IFRS 9 had a signi ican
impac on inancial ins i u ions, equi ing hem o ecognize c edi losses ea lie han unde p e ious s anda ds,
which could ha e led banks and o he inancial ins i u ions o issue mo e deb collec ions. Figu e 14 in he Appendix
shows ha he g ow h in he NOK amoun in ema ks ha began in 2018 was la gely d i en by banks. Impo an ly,
since banks issue ela i ely ew deb collec ions compa ed o o he indus ies, IFRS 9 does no appea o be ela ed
o he o e all inc ease in he numbe o ema ks, which sugges s ha he e a e o he con ibu ing ac o s such as,
e.g., po en ial changes in he scope o deb collec ion s a is ics.
2See Hjelse h e al. (2024) o he analysis o he di e gence be ween paymen ema ks and bank up cies.
3Since high-quali y da a on Inkasso ema ks is a ailable om Janua y 2011, his app oach p o ides a wo-yea
window o ensu e ha i ms did no ecei e Inkasso ema ks p io o 2013.
5
Figu e 3: A e age numbe o ou s anding ema ks (pe i m)
Sou ce: Dun & B ads ee and No ges Bank
Figu e 3shows, o each o he six g oups o i ms, he a e age numbe o ou s anding ema ks
(on he y-axis) a he end o each mon h ollowing he eceip o hei i s Inkasso ema k (on he
x-axis).4Acco ding o he igu e, mos i ms in he sample did no go bank up , and among hose
ha did, he majo i y ailed wi hin he i s ew yea s a e ecei ing hei i s Inkasso ema k.
Fi ms ha go bank up wi hin he i s yea a e ecei ing hei i s Inkasso ema k (o ange line)
ha e, on a e age, ou ou s anding ema ks by he end o he six h mon h. Fi ms ha go bank up
wi hin he second, hi d o ou h yea , on a e age, ha e six, en, o ele en ou s anding ema ks by
he end o he i s , second o hi d yea , espec i ely. In con as , i ms ha do no go bank up
consis en ly ha e, on a e age, only one ou s anding ema k. Figu e 9in he Appendix shows a
simila pa e n o he NOK amoun associa ed wi h ema ks ela i e o he i m’s o al asse s.5
Ou obse a ions so a sugges h ee c i e ia o iden i ying i ms heading owa d bank up cy:
(1) a high numbe o ou s anding ema ks, (2) a high NOK amoun associa ed wi h hose ema ks,
and (3) apid g ow h in bo h he numbe and he NOK amoun o ema ks. We ocus on he i s
c i e ion and de ine high-bank up cy- isk i ms as hose wi h ou o mo e ou s anding ema ks. We
classi y i ms wi h one, wo, o h ee ou s anding ema ks as low- isk. The appendix demons a es
4As i ms en e he yea in which hey go bank up , he numbe o obse a ions begins o change, dis up ing
he smoo hness o he lines in he igu e. The e o e, each line is unca ed a he end o he las ull yea be o e
bank up cies occu . Fo he i ms ha wen bank up in he i s yea , he line is unca ed a e six mon hs.
5Fo ins ance, i ms ha go bank up wi hin he i s , second, and hi d yea ha e ou s anding liabili ies om
Inkasso ema ks ha , on a e age, cons i u e 17 pe cen , 20 pe cen , and 27 pe cen o hei balance shee , by he
end o he i s hal -yea , i s yea , and second yea , espec i ely. To al asse s a e obse ed as close as possible o
he ime when he i s Inkasso ema k is issued and a e held cons an o e ime.
6
Figu e 10: Sha e o i ms wi h 10% o mo e in
NOK amoun associa ed wi h Inkasso ema ks
as % o o al asse s among all i ms in No way
Sou ce: Dun & B ads ee and No ges Bank
Figu e 11: P opo ions o i ms wi h di e en
NOK amoun s associa ed wi h Inkasso ema ks
as % o o al asse s
Sou ce: Dun & B ads ee and No ges Bank
Figu e 12: Sha e o i ms wi h 50% o as e 12-
mon h g ow h in NOK amoun associa ed wi h
Inkasso ema ks among all i ms in No way
Sou ce: Dun & B ads ee and No ges Bank
Figu e 13: P opo ions o i ms wi h di e en
12-mon h g ow h a es in NOK amoun associ-
a ed wi h Inkasso ema ks
Sou ce: Dun & B ads ee and No ges Bank
NOK amoun in ema ks as % o o al asse s 1 yea 2 yea s 3 yea s
10% o mo e 23% 37% 45%
less han 10% 10% 17% 23%
Table 4: Bank up cy equencies condi ional on he i m’s NOK amoun in Inkasso ema ks as %
o o al asse s ( h ee ho izons).
13
12-mon h g ow h a e in NOK amoun in ema ks 1 yea 2 yea s 3 yea s
50% o mo e 24% 38% 45%
less han 50% 11% 15% 25%
Table 5: Bank up cy equencies condi ional on he i m’s 12-mon h g ow h a e in NOK amoun
associa ed wi h Inkasso ema ks ( h ee ho izons).
Figu e 14: NOK amoun in ou s anding ema ks, by c edi o indus y
Sou ce: Dun & B ads ee and No ges Bank
14
