Chal in, Aa on; Mi e-Bece il, Da id; Williams, Mo gan C.
A icle
Does P oac i e Policing Really Inc ease Majo C ime? A
Replica ion S udy o Sulli an and O'Kee e (Na u e Human
Beha iou , 2017)
Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics (JCRE)
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Chal in, Aa on; Mi e-Bece il, Da id; Williams, Mo gan C. (2024) : Does P oac i e
Policing Really Inc ease Majo C ime? A Replica ion S udy o Sulli an and O'Kee e (Na u e Human
Beha iou , 2017), Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics (JCRE), ISSN 2749-988X, ZBW
- Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e o Economics, Kiel, Hambu g, Vol. 3, pp. 1-34,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18718/81781.36
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Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics - JCRE
Does P oac i e Policing Really Inc ease Majo C ime?
A Replica ion S udy o Sulli an and O’Kee e (Na u e Human Beha iou ,
2017)
Aa on Chal in*Da id Mi e-Bece il†Mo gan C. Williams, J .‡
Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics, Volume 3, 2024-6, DOI: 10.18718/81781.36
JEL: K42, J18, H70
Keywo ds: P oac i e policing, C ime
Da a A ailabili y: The R code and da a o ep oduce he esul s o his eplica ion can be down-
loaded a JCRE’s da a a chi e (DOI: 10.15456/j1.2022360.1710041338).
Please Ci e As: Chal in, A., Mi e-Bece il, D. & Williams, M. C. (2024). Does P oac i e Policing
Really Inc ease Majo C ime? A Replica ion S udy o Sulli an and O’Kee e (2017). Jou nal o
Commen s and Replica ions in Economics, Vol.3 (2024-6). DOI: 10.18718/81781.36
Abs ac
In Decembe 2014 and Janua y 2015, police o ice s in New Yo k Ci y engaged in an o ganized
slowdown o police wo k o p o es he mu de o wo police o ice s who we e a ge ed by a
gunman while si ing in hei pa ol ca . An in luen ial 2017 a icle in Na u e Human Beha iou
s udies he e ec o he NYPD’s wo k slowdown on majo c imes and concludes ha he slowdown
led o a signi ican imp o emen in public sa e y. Con a y o he emainde o he li e a u e, he
au ho s conclude ha p oac i e policing can cause an inc ease in c ime. We e-e alua e his claim
and poin ou se e al a al weaknesses in he au ho s’ analysis — which pu po s o be a di e ence-
in-di e ences analysis bu isn’ — ha call his inding in o ques ion. In pa icula , we no e ha
he e was conside able a ia ion in he in ensi y o he slowdown ac oss NYC communi ies and
ha he communi ies which expe ienced a mo e p onounced educ ion in police p oac i i y did no
expe ience he la ges educ ions in majo c ime. The au ho s’ analysis cons i u es a quin essen ial
allacy in s a is ical easoning, a logical miscalcula ion in which in e ences om agg ega ed da a
*Depa men o C iminology, Uni e si y o Pennsyl ania and NBER
†School o Public Policy, Uni e si y o Connec icu
‡Co espondence: Mo gan C. Williams, J ., Ba na d College, Columbia Uni e si y, 1018 Mils ein Cen e , New Yo k, NY,
10027, [email p o ec ed]
Decla a ion: This esea ch does no s em om a o -p o i consul ing ela ionship, and he au ho s a e no awa e o any
inancial in e es s o con lic s among ou espec i e employe s.
Recei ed Decembe 26, 2022; Janua y Ma ch 24, 2024; Accep ed Feb ua y 24, 2024; Published Augus 07, 2024.
©Au ho (s) 2024. Licensed unde he C ea i e Common License - A ibu ion 4.0 In e na ional (CC BY 4.0).
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A. Chal in, D. Mi e-Bece il & M. C. Williams, J . – P oac i e Policing and Majo C ime (Replica ion). JCRE (2024-6)
a e mis akenly applied o a mo e g anula phenomenon. We aise se e al addi ional and equally
compelling conce ns ega ding he es s p esen ed in he pape and conclude ha he e is li le
e idence ha he slowdown led o sho - e m changes in majo c imes in ei he di ec ion.
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Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics - JCRE
1 In oduc ion
Fo decades, ac i is s, policymake s, and social scien is s ha e deba ed he ole o police p esence,
pa icula ly in lowe -income neighbo hoods whe e c ime ends o be mos p e alen . While he e
is a consensus ha he numbe o police o ice s (E ans and Owens, 2007; Chal in and McC a y,
2018; Mello, 2019; Weisbu s , 2019; Kaplan and Chal in, 2019) combined wi h hei p esence and
isibili y (She man and Weisbu d, 1995; Klick and Taba ok, 2005; B aga and Bond, 2008; D aca e
al., 2011; Machin and Ma ie, 2011; B aga e al., 2014; G o e al., 2015; MacDonald e al., 2016;
Mas obuoni, 2019; Lo e and Xue, 2021; Weisbu d, 2021) educes se ious c ime, he s a egies
ha he police ha e some imes deployed, including di ec ed pa ol and he in ensi e use o ield
in e oga ions a e also hough o c ea e high cos s o disad an aged communi ies (Wei ze e al.,
2008; Howell, 2009; Edwa ds e al., 2019; Ang, 2020; Shja back and Nix, 2020; Bache -Hicks and
de la Campa, 2021). Resea ch shows ha while la ge police o ces sa e li es in he Uni ed S a es,
hey also make mo e a es s o low-le el “quali y-o -li e" o enses, c imes which o en do no ha e
a speci ic ic im and o which a es s acc ue disp opo iona ely o Black Ame icans (Chal in e al.,
2022).
Since he 1982 publica ion o B oken Windows by Wilson and Kelling and he subsequen expan-
sion o p oac i e, o de main enance policing ac ics in many U.S. ci ies, he e has been conside able
deba e abou he public sa e y alue o making la ge numbe s o a es s o low-le el quali y o li e
c imes. While he majo i y o ea ly esea ch, much o i using da a om NYC, sugges s ha oday’s
misdemeano a es s p e en omo ow’s elony c imes (Kelling and Sousa, 2001; Co man and Mo-
can, 2005; Messne e al., 2007), a pe suasi e e-analysis by Ha cou and Ludwig (2006) and a
li any o mo e ecen schola ship (B aga and Bond, 2008; MacDonald e al., 2016; Cae ano and
Mahesh i, 2018; Cho e al., 2021) calls such a conclusion in o ques ion.1A he same ime, he e is
con lic ing e idence on he e ec o police “pullbacks" whe e police o ice s choose o engage in less
p oac i e policing, wi h some esea ch inding ha police pullbacks do no subs an ially comp o-
mise public sa e y (Chand asekhe , 2016; Shja back e al., 2017) and o he esea ch inding ha
when he police pull back, inc eases in c ime (Mas, 2006; Shi, 2008) and gun iolence (Cheng and
Long, 2018; De i and F ye J , 2020) can ollow.2
In a 2017 pape published in he highly in luen ial gene al in e es jou nal, Na u e Human Be-
ha iou , Sulli an and O’Kee e (he ea e e e ed o as “S-O’K") assess he e ec o a la ge and
disc e e educ ion in p oac i e policing in NYC du ing a se en week pe iod. Thei esea ch design
is mo i a ed by a coo dina ed “slowdown" o police wo k unde aken by NYC police o ice s in e-
sponse o a se ies o e en s ha shook hei ai h in he ci y’s poli ical leade ship. S-O’K s udy majo
c imes known o law en o cemen du ing he slowdown pe iod and, accoun ing o annual c ime
ends, documen a 6% decline ela i e o he same pe iod in he p e ious yea . Thei conclusion
is ha “cu ailing p oac i e policing can educe majo c ime."3This is an ex ao dina y claim in-
1These indings a e likewise bu essed by ecen esea ch ha documen s he ha m ul e ec s o p e- ial de en ion (Leslie
and Pope, 2017; Dobbie e al., 2018) and p osecu ion o low-le el misdemeano c imes, especially o i s - ime o ende s
(Agan e al., 2021).
2Examining a well-documen ed nine-mon h NYPD slowdown mo i a ed by a collec i e ba gaining dispu e, Chand asekhe
(2016) inds e idence o a sha p decline in icke -w i ing by NYPD o ice s and mixed e idence sugges i e o an inc ease in
elonious assaul and la ceny.
3The au ho s u he s a e: “Ou esul s imply no only ha hese ac ics ail a hei s a ed objec i e o educing majo
legal iola ions, bu also ha he ini ial deploymen o p oac i e policing can inspi e addi ional c imes ha la e p o ide
3
A. Chal in, D. Mi e-Bece il & M. C. Williams, J . – P oac i e Policing and Majo C ime (Replica ion). JCRE (2024-6)
so a as i does no me ely sugges ha o de main enance policing has no disce nible impac on
public sa e y bu ha i di ec ly comp omises public sa e y. So a as we a e awa e, his is he only
empi ical pape published in he las wen y yea s ha epo s such a inding. Gi en he no el y
and impo ance o he inding, i is pe haps unsu p ising ha i is published in a p ominen jou nal.
The pape has since been ci ed 58 imes by academic esea che s and, pe haps due o he au ho s’
decision o w i e an op-ed desc ibing hei indings in he Washing on Pos , i has ecei ed wide a -
en ion ou side o academic channels, ha ing been ci ed in media epo ing by CNN, he New Yo k
Times, he Los Angeles Times and Vox, among o he ou le s.4
In his pape , we e-e alua e his claim and poin ou se e al a al weaknesses in he au-
ho s’ analysis ha call hei p incipal inding in o ques ion. We begin by no ing ha he au ho s’
“di e ence-in-di e ences" analysis uses only wo yea s o da a, compa ing whe he c ime was un-
usual du ing he slowdown pe iod ela i e o he same pe iod in he p io yea , accoun ing o
annual c ime ends. Since he en i e ci y was subjec o he police slowdown, he au ho s’ esea ch
design does no ollow he canonical di e ence-in-di e ences amewo k which equi es bo h a
ime dimension and a uni ha is unexposed (o a leas less exposed) o an in e en ion. Because
he S-O’K analysis does no employ an unexposed compa ison g oup, i is ins ead a a ian o a
simple p e-pos s udy design. As we show wi hin his pape , signi ican spa ial he e ogenei y exis s
in he decline in c iminal summonses issued by he NYPD du ing he slowdown. A simple p e-pos
design does no hing o add ess he endogenous de e mina ion o p oac i e policing ac i i y likely
d i en by unobse ed de e minan s o majo c ime du ing his pe iod–making he obse a ion ha
majo c ime declined ela i e o he p e ious yea ( ela i e o a pa icula yea ) no e ibly in o -
ma i e.
We begin by ex ending he au ho s’ analysis, collec ing he same public mic oda a hey used
in hei 2017 pape o he 14-yea pe iod be ween 2006 and 2019. We hen no e a numbe o
oubling issues ha poin o c i ical laws in hei analysis. While we con i m S-O’K’s inding ha
he decline in majo c imes du ing he 2014-15 slowdown pe iod is s a is ically signi ican a con-
en ional le els, a close inspec ion o he da a sugges s ha he esul may be spu ious. While
he es ima e o he 2014-15 slowdown pe iod is he mos nega i e es ima e among he wel e
yea -o e -yea pai s in he da a, 6 ou o he 11 emaining es ima es a e s a is ically signi ican a
con en ional le els. A numbe o he es ima es ha e con idence in e als which o e lap subs an-
ially wi h ha o he 2014-15 slowdown pe iod. Since he e we e no wo k slowdowns du ing he
o he pe iods, he au ho s’ signi ican inding o he 2014-15 pe iod appea s o be an a i ac o
o dina y yea - o-yea a ia ion in majo c ime a es in a single ci y du ing a se en-week pe iod. In
o he wo ds, he esul does no su i e a simple placebo es .
Mos oubling hough is ha he au ho s ha e igno ed he conside able a ia ion in he in en-
si y o he wo k slowdown ac oss NYC communi ies. Le e aging police p ecinc -le el as well as
U.S. Census ac -le el a ia ion, we show ha while some communi ies expe ienced an eno mous
decline in police en o cemen du ing he slowdown pe iod, o he NYC communi ies expe ienced
only a modes slowdown.5C i ically and con a y o he pape ’s cen al claim — ha he slowdown
jus i ica ion o u he inc easing police s ops, summonses and so on. The icious eedback be ween p oac i e policing and
majo c ime can exace ba e poli ical and economic inequali y ac oss communi ies."
4See: h ps://www.washing onpos .com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/25/does-mo e-policing-
lead- o-less-c ime-o -jus -mo e- acial- esen men /.
5While we canno be ce ain abou he unde lying easons o his a ia ion, we no e ha communi ies ha we e mo e
4
Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics - JCRE
caused majo c imes o decline — he communi ies which expe ienced a much mo e p onounced
educ ion in police en o cemen did no expe ience he la ges educ ions in majo c ime. The au-
ho s’ analysis cons i u es a quin essen ial allacy in s a is ical easoning, a logical miscalcula ion in
which in e ences om agg ega ed da a a e mis akenly applied o a mo e g anula phenomenon.
Finally, we poin o se e al addi ional es able implica ions o he au ho s’ analysis ha a e in-
consis en wi h he conclusion eached in he pape . In pa icula , he au ho s documen a educ ion
in majo c imes in NYC du ing he slowdown bu he pape o e s li le explana ion o why such a
ela ionship migh exis o why i would be causal. We show ha he slowdown does no appea
o ha e ealloca ed police a en ion o clea ing majo c imes. Mo eo e , he la ges educ ions in
c ime obse ed du ing he slowdown occu ed o c imes commi ed inside people’s homes, a eas
which police o ice s a e unable o ac i ely pa ol. These indings a e inconsis en wi h wo o he
mos likely mechanisms o a slowdown in p oac i e policing o ha e bene icial e ec s on public
sa e y.
Ha ing e-analyzed he da a, we conclude ha he e is li le e idence ha he NYPD’s 2014-
2015 wo k slowdown caused a decline in majo c imes. Ins ead, he e idence is mo e consis en
wi h he inding ha majo c imes did no change app eciably as a unc ion o he slowing down o
police wo k. While he deg ee o which his is a use ul na u al expe imen o unde s and he longe -
e m e ec s o a educ ion in so-called p oac i e policing emains unce ain, i is wo h no ing ha
du ing a se en-week pe iod in which he scale o policing was d ama ically educed, he sky did
no all. This is, in ou iew, a conside ably mo e e idence-based in e p e a ion o he au ho s’ own
da a.
The emainde o his pape is o ganized as ollows. In Sec ion 2, we p o ide a b ie desc ip ion
o he na u al expe imen exploi ed in S-O’K’s o iginal pape . In Sec ion 3, we desc ibe he public
mic oda a used o s udy he e ec s o he NYPD wo k slowdown and summa ize ou empi ical
s a egy which, o main ain consis ency, is a eplica ion o ha o S-O’K. In Sec ion 4, we p esen
he esul s o ou new in es iga ion and no e h ee cu iosi ies which call in o ques ion S-O’K’s
cen al inding — ha a sho - e m educ ion in he use o p oac i e policing cu ailed majo c imes.
Sec ion 5 concludes.
2 Ins i u ional Backg ound
The na u al expe imen s udied in S-O’K’s o iginal con ibu ion and ou e-analysis is mo i a ed
by a coo dina ed “slowdown" o police wo k unde aken by NYC police o ice s in esponse o a
se ies o e en s ha shook hei ai h in he ci y’s poli ical leade ship.6On Decembe 4 h, 2014 a
New Yo k g and ju y declined o indic Daniel Pan aleo, he NYPD o ice who used a choke hold
o kill an una med black man named E ic Ga ne in July 2014. Following he g and ju y’s decision,
he e was a se ies o la ge-scale p o es s agains police b u ali y a he B ooklyn B idge, Manha -
exposed o he slowdown do no di e om less exposed communi ies wi h espec o baseline c ime o p e-in e en ion
c ime ends.
6Resea ch does no suppo he idea ha dange has inc eased o police o ice s in ecen yea s (Magui e e al., 2017)
hough he e is e idence ha some police o ice s may pull back when hey pe cei e ha public opinion has changed (Wol e
and Nix, 2016). Fo an excellen discussion o police o ice s’ pe cep ions ega ding whe he he e is a “wa on police" see
Nix e al. (2018).
5
A. Chal in, D. Mi e-Bece il & M. C. Williams, J . – P oac i e Policing and Majo C ime (Replica ion). JCRE (2024-6)
an’s Wes Side Highway, and se e al o he si es h oughou he ci y. In esponse o he pe cep ion
among some police o ice s ha hese p o es s we e suppo ed by NYC’s Mayo Bill de Blasio, NYPD
o ice s began o sys ema ically scale back hei en o cemen ac i i y, issuing ewe summons and
making ewe a es s o misdemeano c imes. La e ha mon h, wo NYPD o ice s, Wenjian Liu
and Ra ael Ramos, we e mu de ed by a gunman in a a ge ed a ack, leading o conce n among
o ice s o hei sa e y and u he en enching o ice s in hei posi ions. The nigh ha O ice s
Ramos and Liu we e killed, he e we e epo s ha an e-mail was ci cula ed among NYPD o ice s
u ging hem no o make a es s o issue summonses “unless absolu ely necessa y" (Lind, 2015).7
While he sou ce o he e-mail appea s o emain un esol ed, on Decembe 22nd, wo days a e he
killing o he o ice s, he numbe o summonses issued and misdemeano a es s ell e en u he .8
In Figu e 1 we plo he daily numbe o c iminal summonses issued ci y-wide be o e, du ing
and a e he slowdown pe iod. In Panel A, we ocus on he pe iod be ween Oc obe 2013 and
Feb ua y 2016. In Panel B, we zoom in on he Oc obe 2014 - Feb ua y 2015 pe iod. In each
panel, he dashed lines a Decembe 1s , 2014 and Janua y 18, 2015 ep esen he slowdown
pe iod as de ined by S-O’K. The do ed line a Decembe 22, 2014 deno es an al e na i e slowdown
pe iod de ined using he da e o he alleged in e nal NYPD memo ha encou aged o ice s o s ep
back om p oac i e police wo k. Se e al ea u es a e wo h no ing. Fi s , e e ing o Panel A,
he e is p edic able seasonal a ia ion in summonses, peaking in he summe and alling du ing
he win e mon hs, eaching a global minimum du ing he 2014-15 slowdown pe iod. Second,
e e ing o Panel B, while summonses do decline in ea ly Decembe , he majo i y o he decline in
summonses ac ually occu s s a ing on Decembe 22nd, co esponding wi h he ci cula ion o he
union memo. The slowdown wanes beginning in mid-Janua y, wi h en o cemen ac i i y e u ning
o p e-slowdown le els on Janua y 18 h. As Figu e 1 calls in o ques ion whe he Decembe 1s is
he bes ma ke o he beginning o he slowdown, we also p o ide an auxilia y analysis using he
Decembe 22, 2014 - Janua y 18, 2015 al e na i e slowdown pe iod.
3 Da a and Me hods
3.1 Da a
This esea ch uses publicly-a ailable adminis a i e eco ds ob ained om New Yo k Ci y’s Open
Da a po al.9We use da a on c iminal cou summonses and a es s o ob ain measu es o he ex-
en o he wo k slowdown and c ime complain da a o s udy he e ec o he slowdown on c imes
known o law en o cemen . The c ime, a es and summons da a con ain ime-s amped inciden -
le el in o ma ion ha includes in o ma ion on he ype o inciden and i s geog aphic loca ion.
Following S-O’K, we classi y c imes in o “majo " and “non-majo " inciden s. Majo c imes include
he se en Pa I Uni o m C ime Repo ing ca ego ies: mu de , ape, obbe y, agg a a ed assaul (all
o which a e classi ied as iolen c imes), and bu gla y, he , and mo o ehicle he (de ined as
p ope y c imes). Non-majo c imes e e o all o he o enses known o he New Yo k Ci y Police
Depa men . The complain da ase also has in o ma ion abou he speci ic loca ion o occu ence
and whe he he c ime occu ed in a esiden ial o comme cial loca ion o on he s ee . We use
7As documen ed by Ba and Ri e a (2019), such memos can indeed ha e la ge e ec s on police beha io .
8Some sou ces a ibu e he e-mail o he NYPD Pa olmen’s Bene olen Associa ion (PBA). Howe e , he PBA denied he
allega ion.
9See h ps://openda a.ci yo newyo k.us/
6
Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics - JCRE
hese a iables o ca ego ize he c imes as indoo (o enses commi ed inside a esiden ial p emise
ha could be ei he an apa men , house, o public housing) o ou doo o enses. To cons uc an
analy ic ile, he da a we e agg ega ed a he p ecinc -day le el o be e cap u e changes in law
en o cemen ac i i y du ing he slowdown window.
Finally, we collec ed wea he in o ma ion (including da a on snow all, p ecipi a ion, and em-
pe a u e) om he Na ional Oceanic and A mosphe ic Adminis a ion Local Clima ological da ase .
We a e age he in o ma ion om New Yo k’s LaGua dia and John F. Kennedy In e na ional Ai -
po s, and Cen al Pa k wea he s a ions o es ima e ci y-wide daily le el da a.
3.2 Econome ic S a egy
We begin by eplica ing he main esul s om S-O’K, supplemen ing hei analysis wi h se e al aux-
ilia y analyses which poin o c i ical laws in hei analysis. The au ho s un an unusual di e ence-
in-di e ences model in which he change in c ime du ing he Decembe 1, 2014 - Janua y 18, 2015
slowdown pe iod ela i e o he emainde o he calenda yea is compa ed o he same change in
c imes du ing he p e ious yea . Simply pu , he au ho s iden i y whe he c ime was unusual du ing
he slowdown pe iod, ela i e o he same pe iod in he p io yea , accoun ing o annual changes
in c ime du ing he 2013-2015 pe iod. C i ically, he e is no con ol g oup ha is unexposed (o
less exposed) o he ea men .
Following S-O’K, we es ima e a nega i e binomial model, a ype o eg ession model which is
o en used o s udy coun da a. Fo ease o compa ison, we desc ibe he equa ion using he au ho s’
o iginal no a ion:
𝐸[𝑌𝑖𝑡 |𝑆𝑡, 𝑇𝑡, 𝑋𝑡]=𝑟𝑖𝑡 =𝑒𝑥 𝑝(𝛼+𝛾𝑆𝑡+𝜆𝑇𝑡+𝛿(𝑆𝑡×𝑇𝑡) + 𝑋′
𝑡𝛽(1)
In (1), 𝑟𝑖𝑡 ep esen s an ou come such as he coun o summonses issued o he coun o majo
c imes in a gi en daily-p ecinc . 𝑆𝑡is an indica o o he “se ies" — ha is, whe he a gi en yea
was ea ed by he slowdown. This a iable is equal o 1 i a gi en day occu ed du ing Janua y
19 h, 2014 o Janua y 18 h, 2015 pe iod and 0 i o he wise. 𝑇𝑡is an indica o o he ea men
window and is equal o 1 i a gi en day occu s du ing he Decembe 1s -Janua y 18 h pe iod. The
coe icien on he in e ac ion be ween he se ies and ea men window indica o s, 𝛿, p o ides an
es ima e o he di e ence-in-di e ences ea men e ec . Fo mally, his es ima e ells us whe he
o no he di e ence in a gi en ou come be ween he ea men pe iod and he emainde o he
yea o he 2014-2015 pe iod di e s om he di e ence in ha ou come be ween he ea men
pe iod and he emainde o he yea o he 2013-2014 pe iod. S anda d e o s a e clus e ed a
he p ecinc le el.10
4 Re-Analysis
In ou e-analysis, we no e h ee cu iosi ies which call in o ques ion S-O’K’s cen al inding — ha
a sho - e m educ ion in he use o p oac i e policing cu ailed majo c imes. We de ail each o
10Following S-O’K, we also exclude he Cen al Pa k P ecinc om he eg ession models, bu his decision is inconsequen-
ial o he magni ude o he poin es ima es.
7
A. Chal in, D. Mi e-Bece il & M. C. Williams, J . – P oac i e Policing and Majo C ime (Replica ion). JCRE (2024-6)
hese i ems below.
4.1 Inconsis en E idence and Failed Placebo Tes s
Using he app oach desc ibed in equa ion (1), S-O’K ind ha majo c imes declined by app oxi-
ma ely 6% du ing he 2014-15 slowdown ela i e o he same pe iod in he p e ious yea . In Figu e
2we eplica e hei analysis o all 𝑡,𝑡-1 pai s du ing he 2007-2019 pe iod.11 The igu e epo s
inciden a e a ios, s anda d e o s clus e ed by police p ecinc and associa ed 95% con idence
in e als om he nega i e binomial eg ession equa ion ou lined in (1). Es ima es o he 2014-15
pe iod a e p esen ed using ed ci cles. Fo he o he pe iods, es ima es which a e signi ican a he
𝛼= 0.05 le el a e p esen ed using g een iangles; es ima es ha a e no s a is ically signi ican
a e p esen ed using g ay hombuses.
In Panel A, we conside he issuance o c iminal summonses, he p ima y ma ke o he wo k
slowdown, hough we ep oduce he same igu e using a es s o non-majo c imes in Appendix
Figu e A.1. In Panel B, we conside S-O’K’s p ima y ou come: majo c imes known o law en-
o cemen .12 Consis en wi h S-O’K, he 2014-15 slowdown appea s o ha e educed c iminal
summonses by app oxima ely 50% when compa ed o he p e ious yea . Happily, we a e able
o eplica e S-O’K’s inding ha majo c imes declined by app oxima ely 7% du ing he 2014-15
slowdown pe iod ela i e o he same pe iod in he p io yea , an es ima e ha is s a is ically sig-
ni ican a con en ional le els.
A mo e ca e ul e iew o Figu e 2 howe e e eals se e al oubling issues. We begin by no ing
ha subs an i ely impo an yea -o e -yea changes in summonses issued by he NYPD a e ac ually
e y common and so he la ge educ ion in summonses du ing he 2014-15 slowdown pe iod is no
unique. Indeed we obse e s a is ically signi ican yea -o e -yea changes in summonses issued in
6 ou o he 11 yea s o which we ha e da a. Some o hese changes a e quali a i ely la ge. Fo ex-
ample, ela i e o he same pe iod in he p io yea , he e was a 29% dec ease in summonses issued
du ing he Decembe 1s , 2017-Janua y 18 h, 2018 pe iod and a 56% inc ease in summonses issued
du ing he Decembe 1s , 2018-Janua y 18 h, 2019 pe iod. We likewise obse e a 91% inc ease in
summonses issued du ing he 2015-16 pe iod which is i sel an a i ac o he 2014-15 slowdown
which dep essed police ac i i y du ing he p io yea .
The ac ha la ge yea -o e -yea changes in summonses a e common mo i a es a mo e sys em-
a ic inqui y in o he ela ionship be ween police en o cemen and majo c imes du ing he Decem-
be 1s -Janua y 18 h pe iod. Re e ing o Figu e 2, we obse e ha when summonses ell by 29%
du ing he 2017-18 pe iod, he e was, in ac , no change in majo c imes. Simila ly, when sum-
monses issued inc eased by mo e han 90% in 2015-16, we also do no see any esul ing changes
in majo c imes in NYC. In bo h cases, s anda d e o s a e small, easily allowing us o ule ou a
7% decline in majo c imes. Con a y o he claim made by S-O’K, he igu e sugges s ha he e-
la ionship be ween police p oac i i y and majo c imes is highly a iable and emains a om clea .
Nex , we ocus on he s a is ical signi icance o S-O’K’s esul . While he decline in majo c imes
du ing he 2014-15 slowdown pe iod is s a is ically signi ican a con en ional le els (𝑝 < 0.01),
11We exclude 2020 due o he la ge dis up ions o social and economic li e caused by he COVID-19 pandemic.
12Auxilia y esul s o non-majo c imes a e a ailable in Appendix Figu e A.1, Panel B.
8
Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics - JCRE
A. C iminal summonses
B. Majo c imes
Figu e 2: The 2014-2015 NYPD slowdown and i s e ec on majo c imes
No es: Each ow p esen s es ima es om SO’s di e ence-in-di e ences es ima o . The analysis
iden i ies he e ec o he slowdown by di e encing he yea -o e -yea change in he numbe o
majo c imes expe ienced du ing he Decembe 1s -Janua y 18 h slowdown pe iod om he yea -
o e -yea change in majo c imes expe ienced du ing he emainde o he yea . Fo each yea
𝑡, yea 𝑡-1 pai , we eplica e SO’s models, collapsing c ime o he p ecinc -day le el, excluding
demog aphic con ol a iables, which do no a y daily and which, as SO no e, he e o e do no
in luence he esul ing es ima es. Fo a gi en pe iod, he es ima ing equa ion is as ollows: 𝑦𝑖𝑡 =
𝛼+𝛽1𝑆𝑖𝑡 +𝛽2𝑇𝑖𝑡 +𝛽3𝑆𝑖𝑡 𝑇𝑖𝑡 +𝛾𝑋𝑖𝑡 +𝑒𝑖𝑡 , whe e 𝑦𝑖𝑡 is he ou come a iable a he p ecinc 𝑖,
day-mon h-yea 𝑡,𝑆𝑖𝑡 =1 o pe iod 𝑡be ween Janua y/19/YEAR+1 and Janua y/18/YEAR+2,
ze o o he wise, 𝑇𝑖𝑡 =1is he ea men window o pe iod 𝑡be ween Decembe /01/YEAR and
Janua y/18/YEAR+1 as well as Decembe /01/YEAR+1 and Janua y/18/YEAR+2, ze o o he wise,
and 𝑋𝑖𝑡 ep esen s wea he da a (snow, p ecipi a ion, and empe a u e) a he ci y-day-mon h-yea
le el. Each model only includes da a be ween Janua y/19/YEAR o Janua y/18/YEAR+2. Fo each
pai o yea s, he igu e epo s inciden a e a ios, s anda d e o s clus e ed by police p ecinc and
95% con idence in e als om a se ies o nega i e binomial eg essions. Panel A conside s he
issuing o c iminal summonses, he p ima y ma ke o he wo k slowdown. Panel B conside s SO’s
p ima y ou come, majo c imes known o law en o cemen , which includes he se en-pa I Uni o m
C ime Repo ing ca ego ies: mu de , ape, obbe y, agg a a ed assaul , bu gla y, he , and mo o
ehicle he .
15
A. Chal in, D. Mi e-Bece il & M. C. Williams, J . – P oac i e Policing and Majo C ime (Replica ion). JCRE (2024-6)
A. C iminal summonses
B. Majo c imes
Figu e 3: P ecinc -le el a ia ion in he 2014-2015 NYPD slowdown
No es: Panel A p esen s a p ecinc -le el hea map o NYC and documen s eno mous a ia ion in
he in ensi y o he slowdown ac oss NYC communi ies. Fo each o NYC’s 76 police p ecinc s
(excluding he Cen al Pa k p ecinc ), he in ensi y o he colo in he hea map co esponds wi h he
yea -o e -yea change in summonses issued du ing he Decembe 1s -Janua y 18 h pe iod. Panel
B exploi s he p ecinc -le el a ia ion and plo s each p ecinc ’s pe cen age change in majo c imes
be ween he Decembe 1s , 2013 - Janua y 18 h, 2014 and he Decembe 1s , 2014 - Janua y 18 h,
2015 pe iods (𝑦-axis) agains he same pe cen age change in summonses issued (𝑥-axis). A bes - i
line is d awn h ough he da a. Majo c imes include he se en-pa I Uni o m C ime Repo ing
ca ego ies: mu de , ape, obbe y, agg a a ed assaul , bu gla y, he , and mo o ehicle he .
16
Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics - JCRE
A. Majo c imes, indoo s
B. Majo c imes, ou doo s
Figu e 4: E ec s o NYPD slowdown on ou doo and indoo majo c imes
No es: Each ow p esen s es ima es om SO’s di e ence-in-di e ences es ima o . The analysis
iden i ies he e ec o he slowdown by di e encing he yea -o e -yea change in he numbe o
majo c imes expe ienced du ing he Decembe 1s -Janua y 18 h slowdown pe iod om he yea -
o e -yea change in majo c imes expe ienced du ing he emainde o he yea . Fo each yea
𝑡, yea 𝑡-1 pai , we eplica e SO’s models, collapsing c ime o he p ecinc -day le el, excluding
demog aphic con ol a iables, which do no a y daily and which, as SO no e, he e o e do no
in luence he esul ing es ima es. Fo a gi en pe iod, he es ima ing equa ion is as ollows: 𝑦𝑖𝑡 =
𝛼+𝛽1𝑆𝑖𝑡 +𝛽2𝑇𝑖𝑡 +𝛽3𝑆𝑖𝑡 𝑇𝑖𝑡 +𝛾𝑋𝑖𝑡 +𝑒𝑖𝑡 , whe e 𝑦𝑖𝑡 is he ou come a iable a he p ecinc 𝑖,
day-mon h-yea 𝑡,𝑆𝑖𝑡 =1 o pe iod 𝑡be ween Janua y/19/YEAR+1 and Janua y/18/YEAR+2,
ze o o he wise, 𝑇𝑖𝑡 =1is he ea men window o pe iod 𝑡be ween Decembe /01/YEAR and
Janua y/18/YEAR+1 as well as Decembe /01/YEAR+1 and Janua y/18/YEAR+2, ze o o he wise,
and 𝑋𝑖𝑡 ep esen s wea he da a (snow, p ecipi a ion, and empe a u e) a he ci y-day-mon h-yea
le el. Each model only includes da a be ween Janua y/19/YEAR o Janua y/18/YEAR+2. Fo each
pai o yea s, he igu e epo s inciden a e a ios, s anda d e o s clus e ed by police p ecinc and
95% con idence in e als om a se ies o nega i e binomial eg essions. Panel A conside s majo
c imes commi ed indoo s; Panel B conside s majo c imes, commi ed ou doo s. Indoo c imes
comp ise o enses commi ed inside a esiden ial p emise (apa men , house, o public housing);
ou doo c imes include all he o he c iminal o enses.
17
A. Chal in, D. Mi e-Bece il & M. C. Williams, J . – P oac i e Policing and Majo C ime (Replica ion). JCRE (2024-6)
A. C iminal summonses B. Majo c imes
C. Majo c imes, indoo s D. Majo c imes, ou doo s
Figu e 5: E ec s o NYPD slowdown on public sa e y using al e na i e Sep em-
be 22nd, 2014 - Janua y 18 h, 2015 ea men pe iod
No es: Each ow p esen s es ima es om SO’s di e ence-in-di e ences es ima o . Fo each yea
𝑡, yea 𝑡-1 pai , we eplica e SO’s models, collapsing c ime o he p ecinc -day le el, excluding
demog aphic con ol a iables, which do no a y daily and which, as SO no e, he e o e do
no in luence he esul ing es ima es. Fo a gi en pe iod, he es ima ing equa ion is as ollows:
𝑦𝑖𝑡 =𝛼+𝛽1𝑆𝑖𝑡 +𝛽2𝑇𝑖𝑡 +𝛽3𝑆𝑖𝑡 𝑇𝑖𝑡 +𝛾𝑋𝑖𝑡 +𝑒𝑖𝑡 , whe e 𝑦𝑖𝑡 is he ou come a iable a he p ecinc
𝑖, day-mon h-yea 𝑡,𝑆𝑖𝑡 =1 o pe iod 𝑡be ween Janua y/19/YEAR+1 and Janua y/18/YEAR+2,
ze o o he wise, 𝑇𝑖𝑡 =1is he ea men window o pe iod 𝑡be ween Decembe /01/YEAR and
Janua y/18/YEAR+1 as well as Decembe /22/YEAR+1 and Janua y/18/YEAR+2, ze o o he wise,
and 𝑋𝑖𝑡 ep esen s wea he da a (snow, p ecipi a ion, and empe a u e) a he ci y-day-mon h-yea
le el. Each model only includes da a be ween Janua y/19/YEAR o Janua y/18/YEAR+2. Fo each
pai o yea s, he igu e epo s inciden a e a ios, s anda d e o s clus e ed by police p ecinc and
95% con idence in e als om a se ies o nega i e binomial eg essions. Panel A conside s c iminal
summonses, Panel B conside s majo c imes and Panels C and D conside majo indoo and ou -
doo c imes, espec i ely. Indoo c imes comp ise o enses commi ed inside a esiden ial p emise
(apa men , house, o public housing); ou doo c imes include all he o he c iminal o enses.
18
Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics - JCRE
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A Appendix: Tables and Figu es
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Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics - JCRE
Figu e A.7: P ecinc -le el sca e plo o he change in majo c imes agains
he change in c iminal summonses using al e na i e Sep embe 22nd, 2014 -
Janua y 18 h, 2015 ea men pe iod
No es: Figu e exploi s he p ecinc -le el a ia ion and plo s each p ecinc ’s pe cen age change in
majo c imes be ween he Decembe 22nd, 2013 - Janua y 18 h, 2014 and he Decembe 22nd,
2014 - Janua y 18 h, 2015 pe iods (𝑦-axis) agains he same pe cen age change in summonses
issued (𝑥-axis). A bes - i line is d awn h ough he da a. Majo c imes include he se en-pa
I Uni o m C ime Repo ing ca ego ies: mu de , ape, obbe y, agg a a ed assaul , bu gla y, he ,
and mo o ehicle he .
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A. Chal in, D. Mi e-Bece il & M. C. Williams, J . – P oac i e Policing and Majo C ime (Replica ion). JCRE (2024-6)
A. C iminal summons B. Majo c imes
C. Majo c imes, indoo s D. Majo c imes, ou doo s
Figu e A.8: E ec s o slowdown on public sa e y a he census ac le el
No es: Each ow p esen s es ima es om SO’s di e ence-in-di e ences es ima o . Fo each yea
𝑡, yea 𝑡-1 pai , we collapsed c ime o he census ac -day le el, excluding demog aphic con ol
a iables, which do no a y a a daily le el and which, as SO no e, he e o e do no in luence he
esul ing es ima es. Fo a gi en pe iod, he es ima ing equa ion is as ollows: 𝑦𝑖𝑡 =𝛼+𝛽1𝑆𝑖𝑡 +𝛽2𝑇𝑖𝑡 +
𝛽3𝑆𝑖𝑡 𝑇𝑖𝑡 +𝛾𝑋𝑖𝑡 +𝑒𝑖𝑡 , whe e 𝑦𝑖𝑡 is he ou come a iable a he census ac 𝑖, day-mon h-yea 𝑡,𝑆𝑖𝑡 =
1 o pe iod 𝑡be ween Janua y/19/YEAR+1 and Janua y/18/YEAR+2, ze o o he wise, 𝑇𝑖𝑡 =1is
he ea men window o pe iod 𝑡be ween Decembe /01/YEAR and Janua y/18/YEAR+1 as well
as Decembe /01/YEAR+1 and Janua y/18/YEAR+2, ze o o he wise, and 𝑋𝑖𝑡 ep esen s wea he
da a (snow, p ecipi a ion, and empe a u e) a he ci y-day-mon h-yea le el. Each model only
includes da a be ween Janua y/19/YEAR o Janua y/18/YEAR+2. Fo each pai o yea s, he igu e
epo s inciden a e a ios, s anda d e o s clus e ed a he census ac le el and 95% con idence
in e als om a se ies o nega i e binomial eg essions. Majo c imes include he se en-pa I
Uni o m C ime Repo ing ca ego ies: mu de , ape, obbe y, agg a a ed assaul , bu gla y, he ,
and mo o ehicle he . Indoo c imes comp ise o enses commi ed inside a esiden ial p emise
(apa men , house, o public housing); ou doo c imes include all he o he c iminal o enses.
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Jou nal o Commen s and Replica ions in Economics - JCRE
A. Summons s Majo c imes
B. Non-majo c ime a es s s Non-Majo c imes
Figu e A.9: Census ac le el sca e plo o he change in c imes agains c imi-
nal summons
No es: The igu e exploi s he census ac -le el a ia ion and plo s each ac ’s pe cen age change
in c imes be ween he Decembe 1s , 2013 - Janua y 18 h, 2014 and he Decembe 1s , 2014 -
Janua y 18 h, 2015 pe iods (𝑦-axis) agains he same pe cen age change in summonses issued o
a es s made (𝑥-axis). Majo c imes include he se en-pa I Uni o m C ime Repo ing ca ego ies:
mu de , ape, obbe y, agg a a ed assaul , bu gla y, he , and mo o ehicle he . Non-majo
c imes e e o all o he c imes epo ed o he New Yo k Police Depa men . A bes - i line is d awn
h ough he da a. Bo h panels exclude ou lie s in he isualiza ion bu hey a e included in he
eg ession line. The sample sizes a e di e en be ween panels because hey exclude non- ini e
alues (i.e., di ision o e ze o alues).
33
A. Chal in, D. Mi e-Bece il & M. C. Williams, J . – P oac i e Policing and Majo C ime (Replica ion). JCRE (2024-6)
A. C iminal summons B. Majo c imes
Figu e A.10: E ec s o NYPD slowdown on ou doo and indoo majo c imes,
al e na i e SE clus e ing
No es: Each ow p esen s es ima es om SO’s di e ence-in-di e ences es ima o . The analysis
iden i ies he e ec o he slowdown by di e encing he yea -o e -yea change in he numbe o
majo c imes expe ienced du ing he Decembe 1s -Janua y 18 h slowdown pe iod om he yea -
o e -yea change in majo c imes expe ienced du ing he emainde o he yea . Fo each yea
𝑡, yea 𝑡-1 pai , we eplica e SO’s models, collapsing c ime o he p ecinc -day le el, excluding
demog aphic con ol a iables, which do no a y daily and which, as SO no e, he e o e do no
in luence he esul ing es ima es. Fo a gi en pe iod, he es ima ing equa ion is as ollows: 𝑦𝑖𝑡 =
𝛼+𝛽1𝑆𝑖𝑡 +𝛽2𝑇𝑖𝑡 +𝛽3𝑆𝑖𝑡 𝑇𝑖𝑡 +𝛾𝑋𝑖𝑡 +𝑒𝑖𝑡 , whe e 𝑦𝑖𝑡 is he ou come a iable a he p ecinc 𝑖,
day-mon h-yea 𝑡,𝑆𝑖𝑡 =1 o pe iod 𝑡be ween Janua y/19/YEAR+1 and Janua y/18/YEAR+2,
ze o o he wise, 𝑇𝑖𝑡 =1is he ea men window o pe iod 𝑡be ween Decembe /01/YEAR and
Janua y/18/YEAR+1 as well as Decembe /01/YEAR+1 and Janua y/18/YEAR+2, ze o o he wise,
and 𝑋𝑖𝑡 ep esen s wea he da a (snow, p ecipi a ion, and empe a u e) a he ci y-day-mon h-yea
le el. Each model only includes da a be ween Janua y/19/YEAR o Janua y/18/YEAR+2. Fo each
pai o yea s, he igu e epo s inciden a e a ios, s anda d e o s clus e ed by ei he p ecinc o
p ecin and yea , and 95% con idence in e als om a se ies o nega i e binomial eg essions.
Panel A conside s he issuing o c iminal summonses, he p ima y ma ke o he wo k slowdown.
Panel B conside s SO’s p ima y ou come, majo c imes known o law en o cemen , which includes
he se en-pa I Uni o m C ime Repo ing ca ego ies: mu de , ape, obbe y, agg a a ed assaul ,
bu gla y, he , and mo o ehicle he .
34
