Ron os, Kos as; An onoglou, Dimi ios; Sal a i, Luca; Maiale i, Ma co;
Kon ogiannis, Geo gios
A icle
Re isi ing he spa ial cycle: In a- egional de elopmen
pa e ns and u u e popula ion dynamics in me opoli an
A hens, G eece
Economies
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ron os, Kos as; An onoglou, Dimi ios; Sal a i, Luca; Maiale i, Ma co;
Kon ogiannis, Geo gios (2024) : Re isi ing he spa ial cycle: In a- egional de elopmen pa e ns
and u u e popula ion dynamics in me opoli an A hens, G eece, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099, MDPI,
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Ci a ion: Ron os, Kos as, Dimi ios
An onoglou, Luca Sal a i, Ma co
Maiale i, and Geo gios Kon ogiannis.
2024. Re isi ing he Spa ial Cycle:
In a-Regional De elopmen Pa e ns
and Fu u e Popula ion Dynamics in
Me opoli an A hens, G eece.
Economies 12: 202. h ps://doi.o g/
10.3390/economies12080202
Academic Edi o : Richa d J. Cebula
Recei ed: 5 July 2024
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economies
A icle
Re isi ing he Spa ial Cycle: In a-Regional De elopmen
Pa e ns and Fu u e Popula ion Dynamics in Me opoli an
A hens, G eece
Kos as Ron os 1, Dimi ios An onoglou 1, Luca Sal a i 2,*, Ma co Maiale i 3and Geo gios Kon ogiannis 4,5
1Depa men o Sociology, Facul y o Social Sciences, Uni e si y o he Aegean, Uni e si y Hill,
81100 My ilini, G eece; k. [email p o ec ed] (K.R.); [email p o ec ed] (D.A.)
2Depa men o Me hods and Models o Economics, Te i o y and Finance, Facul y o Economics, Sapienza
Uni e si y o Rome, Via del Cas o Lau enziano 9, 00185 Rome, I aly
3
Medi e anean Sus ainable De elopmen Founda ion (MEDES), Sicignano degli Albu ni, 84029 Sale no, I aly;
a [email p o ec ed]
4Depa men o Planning and Regional De elopmen , School o Enginee ing, Uni e si y o Thessaly,
38221 Volos, G eece; [email p o ec ed]
5Depa men o His o y and E hnology, School o Classics & Humani ies, Democ i us Uni e si y o Th ace,
69100 Komo ini, G eece
*Co espondence: luca.sal a i@uni oma1.i
Abs ac : Being in e wined wi h economic de elopmen , u baniza ion de e mines he p esen and
u u e de elopmen pa h o egions and coun ies. The in ima e ela ionship be ween u ban expansion
and economic de elopmen is o pa icula in e es in he case o la ge egions wi h complex (and
mos ly non-linea ) socio-demog aphic dynamics and a ele an p imacy in he me opoli an sys em
o a gi en coun y. Typical examples o ad anced economies wi h se lemen sys ems cha ac e ized
by a high deg ee o ci y p imacy a e pe iphe al and disad an aged Eu opean coun ies such as
Po ugal and G eece. Fo ins ance, he adminis a i e egion o A ica—cen e ed on A hens, he
G eek capi al ci y— ep esen s he la ges me opoli an a ea o he coun y, hos ing almos 3.8 million
inhabi an s in 2021 (36.2% o he G eek popula ion). In his con ex , his s udy in es iga es he in e nal
edis ibu ion o he esiden popula ion in me opoli an A hens and he p og essi e de elopmen o
sa elli e ci ies o e a ela i ely long ime in e al, es ing he assump ions o he Spa ial Cycle Theo y
(SCT) be ween 1951 and 2021 and p edic ing u u e de elopmen pa hs up o 2051. To in es iga e pas ,
p esen , and u u e in a- egional popula ion ends, we used da a eleased om decadal (
1951–2021
)
censuses and demog aphic o ecas s o he yea s 2031, 2041, and 2051. Being in line wi h he SCT,
he empi ical esul s o ou s udy documen how demog aphic dynamics o indi idual cen e s
in luence la gely—and independen ly— he long- e m de elopmen o me opoli an egions, bo h
wi h policy/planning egula ion and in condi ions o non-in e en ion (spon aneous u ban g ow h).
Keywo ds: u ban g ow h; economic cycle; immig a ion; sa elli e ci ies; Sou he n Eu ope
1. In oduc ion
A g owing popula ion in ci ies is he join esul o na u al popula ion g ow h and
(in e nal and in e na ional) immig a ion o u ban a eas (Haase e al. 2013). A mul i ude o
socioeconomic d i e s and, likely mo e su p isingly, exogenous shocks ha we e ha dly
p edic ed (e.g., wa s, economic ecessions, clima e c ises, pandemics) ha e in luenced such
socio-demog aphic p ocesses (Fielding 1982). U baniza ion hus cons i u es a complex phe-
nomenon in e wined wi h long- e m de elopmen p ocesses cha ac e is ic o any coun y
in he wo ld (Findley 1993;Hende son 2003a;Niu e al. 2021). In his pe spec i e, u ban
expansion should no be ega ded as a one-dimensional p ocess (Black and Hende son 2003;
Bai e al. 2012;Chen e al. 2014), e lec ing long- e m popula ion edis ibu ion pa hs wi h
di e en in ensi ies and spa ial di ec ions ac oss me opoli an egions (e.g., Champion 1989;
Economies 2024,12, 202. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies12080202 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/economies
Economies 2024,12, 202 2 o 14
C oss 1990;Sal a i e al. 2019). They include a ela i ely as popula ion g ow h in u ban
a eas and he subsequen decline o he esiden popula ion in he denses se lemen s
(Hende son 2003b;Shaban e al. 2022;An onoglou and Ron os 2023b). The Spa ial Cycle
Theo y (SCT), ini ially p oposed by Klaassen (1981) and u he de eloped by an de Be g
e al. (1982), aims a iden i ying and explaining sequen ial de elopmen s ages o ci ies
in ela ion o hei wide egion o in luence (namely, me opoli an egions o unc ional
u ban a eas). Based on SCT assump ions, u ban a eas a e assumed o e ol e acco ding o
sequen ial s ages, as ollows:
•‘U baniza ion’: se lemen s de elop a he expense o he su ounding u al space;
•‘Subu baniza ion’: subu ban se lemen s de elop a he expense o u ban co es;
•‘Disu baniza ion’: u ban popula ions decen alized owa ds sa elli e cen e s;
•
‘Reu baniza ion’: popula ion in cen al loca ions s a g owing again a e a long decline.
In he i s s age, popula ion and economic ac i i ies concen a e in cen al loca ions,
o ming dense and compac ci ies (Angel e al. 2011;Tu ok and McG anahan 2013;Li
e al. 2021). The expansion o seconda y and e ia y sec o s down own, alongside he
consolida ion o he p ima y sec o in pe iphe al loca ions, c ea es he condi ions a he base
o he i s s age o he SCT, namely, ‘u baniza ion’ (Champion 2000). The p omo ion and
adop ion o new economic s anda ds and he a ac i e o ce o neighbo ing ci ies—in u n
shaped by ex e nal economies, in as uc u e, and ins i u ional ac o s—may consolida e
his de elopmen s age (Ji e al. 2020). Wi h he inhe en concen a ion o he popula ion
and economic ac i i ies down own, nega i e ex e nal economies begin o swell, and se e e
a ic conges ion occu s, delaying he mo emen o wo ke s and he smoo h ade o
inished p oduc s (G oss and Ouyang 2021). Lacking ee space o he na u al expansion
o p oduc ion uni s, en i onmen al pollu ion, and gene ally un a o able li ing condi ions
o esiden popula ions cons ain u he se lemen g ow h (Kuang e al. 2020).
In o de o deal wi h his un a o able con ex , middle- and high-income households
mo e o subu ban loca ions wi h high en i onmen al quali y and a o able li ing condi-
ions, gi ing oom o he second s age o he SCT, namely, ‘subu baniza ion’ (Yang and
Zhao 2022). F ee-s anding businesses ollow such endency, especially se ice businesses,
since hei execu i es (o cus ome s) s a expe iencing a subu ban li e (Sal a i and Sa e i-
ano 2015). In o he wo ds, hey mo e o a be e en i onmen , ensu ing imp o ed wo king
condi ions and business p es ige (Bake e al. 2000). The in insic mo emen o households,
businesses, and wo ke s o subu ban loca ions leads o land sa u a ion, wo se a ic issues,
en i onmen al deple ion, and he comple e disappea ance o adi ional ag icul u al ac i i-
ies along he inge (Sun and Zhang 2021). On he o he hand, households and businesses
ha e le a signi ican pa o co e ci ies almos emp y. In he long e m, his de elopmen
pa h has wo implica ions, namely, (i) he la en sh inkage o economic ac i i ies down own
and (ii) he occupa ion o abandoned (o ee) spaces by illegal ac i i ies and social (o
e hnic) g oups in consolida ed (dense) se lemen s (Chen and Chi 2022). These e ec s o en
esul in a so o ‘ghe oiza ion’ o me opoli an cen e s (Ron os e al. 2016). ‘Subu baniza-
ion’ is comple ed wi h he appea ance o un a o able condi ions in sa u a ed subu bs and
he mo emen o households o new (sa elli e) ci ies o new se lemen s wi h a high-quali y
na u al en i onmen and mo e ideal li ing condi ions (An onoglou and Ron os 2023a).
Sa elli e ci ies hus become a key dimension o spa ial planning, ep esen ing he
na u al e olu ion o mode n li es yles and sa is ying he needs o a con inuously expanding
popula ion in o e en la ge me opoli an egions. Sa elli e ci ies sha e key unc ions wi h
adi ional cen e s, while emaining pa ially independen (economically and socially)
om hem, ha ing, a he same ime, hei own u banized a ea and abso bing pa o he
g ow h o su ounding ci ies, as a esul o a de e io a ed quali y o li e he ein. As he
popula ion o sa elli e ci ies inc eases, new se lemen s a an e en g ea e dis ance om
cen al loca ions can be obse ed, s eng hening hei ole in indus y, job ma ke s, and
local go e nance (E ans and E ans 2007). This pa h is ecognized as he hi d s age o he
SCT, namely, ‘disu baniza ion’.
Economies 2024,12, 202 3 o 14
The heo y p edic s a ou h s age (‘ eu baniza ion’), whe e u ban cen e s (namely, he
co e ci ies) expe ience a slowdown in popula ion decline, and ‘ghe oiza ion’ phenomena
become less in ense (Le e 1993). The possibili y o imp o ing housing condi ions down-
own, whe e old buildings a e demolished and hose in be e condi ion a e ebuil , is an
impo an ac o in his de elopmen pa h. Consequen ly, cen al loca ions ha e a new
wa e o popula ion g ow h, wi h declining ends in subu ban places. In some cases, his
de elopmen e lec s he e e se mo emen o households om subu bs o ci y cen e s.
Responding e ec i ely o he spa ial cycle o ci ies, u ban policies should be o mu-
la ed acco dingly and adjus ed dynamically. Fo ins ance, decen aliza ion policies can
p o e ine ec i e in me opoli an a eas unde going ‘disu baniza ion’. A he same ime,
u ban egene a ion policies should ake accoun o he speci ic s age o he spa ial cycle,
and de elopmen ac ions should be ‘p o-cyclically’ adap ed o demog aphic dynamics
o e la ge me opoli an egions. The e olu ion o u ban and egional cen e s, acco ding o
he SCT (Kawashima 1986), is p esen ed in Figu e 1. Changing popula ion in he co e ci y
and in he su ounding subu bs is illus a ed, espec i ely, on he ho izon al and e ical
axes. In his g aph, he cycle is illus a ed wi h sequen ial wa es ( om he beginning o
he end o he ci cula de elopmen pa h), conside ing he s ages desc ibed abo e and he
in e media e phases inbe ween.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 o 15
Figu e 1. A g aphical illus a ion o he ou s ages o he Spa ial Cycle, and he in e media e de-
elopmen wa es (1 o 8), in a gi en me opoli an egion. Sou ce: au ho s’ adap a ion o Ka-
washima (1986) d awings.
Wi h he amewo k o he SCT, Noo ds om (1981) in es iga ed local-scale u ban
g ow h pa e ns and p ocesses ex ensi ely, e idencing demog aphic changes is-à- is
sequen ial de elopmen al s ages o a gi en ci y. Acco ding o he SCT, popula ion, se -
lemen s, and economic ac i i ies a e assumed o be signi ican ly in luenced by a mix o
egional de elopmen and socio-cul u al and poli ic/ins i u ional changes a he local
scale (Kon uly and Geye 2003). Noo ds om also a gued ha when a socie y de elops,
all he ac i i ies ha a ec employmen —and, consequen ly, he spa ial s uc u e o
popula ions and se lemen s—unde go (mo e o less in ense) changes a icula ed in o
a ious s ages. Consequen ly, he e ec o en i onmen al condi ions and local policies,
which cons i u e he basic d i e s o popula ion s uc u e and dynamics in mode n soci-
e ies, can be delinea ed and in e p e ed in a b oade pe spec i e o egional g ow h. The
impac o policy and planning is also emphasized in ligh o he SCT (Ko celli 1986).
Based on his assump ion, his s udy implemen s a spa ially explici in e p e a ion o
me opoli an g ow h and decline o e a su icien ly long ime in e al, conside ing pop-
ula ion change a he local le el as an hones measu e o egional de elopmen pa hs,
aking accoun o he ‘in ensi y’ and ‘spa ial di ec ion’ dimensions join ly (Geye and
Kon uly 1993). We speci ically es ed he assump ions o he SCT delinea ed abo e,
mo ing om a egional o a local app oach ha conside s oge he popula ion dynamics
a he co e, he subu ban and sa elli e loca ions (Kon uly 1992). In o med by a seminal
s udy o Noo ds om (1981), his local-scale app oach inco po a es heo e ical and em-
pi ical e idence om a ela i ely b oad li e a u e o u ban geog aphy and applied eco-
nomics since he la e 1980s.
Figu e 1. A g aphical illus a ion o he ou s ages o he Spa ial Cycle, and he in e media e de el-
opmen wa es (1 o 8), in a gi en me opoli an egion. Sou ce: au ho s’ adap a ion o Kawashima
(1986) d awings.
•
‘U baniza ion’ appea s when he Ca esian P oduc o he abo e wo quan i ies is
posi i e (‘Type 1’), namely, when u ban popula ion inc eases wi h a con empo a y
decline o subu ban popula ion ( he so-called, ‘absolu e u baniza ion’). In he Type 2
Economies 2024,12, 202 4 o 14
de elopmen class, he popula ions o bo h a eas inc ease, wi h a slowing g ow h a e
in ol ing u ban se lemen s and an accele a ing a e obse ed in subu ban loca ions
( he so-called ‘ ela i e u baniza ion’).
•
‘Subu baniza ion’ co esponds o a Type 3 de elopmen ( he so-called ‘ ela i e sub-
u baniza ion’), whe e u ban popula ion inc eases a a slowe a e and subu ban
popula ion inc eases a an accele a ed a e; meanwhile, Type 4 de elopmen implies a
popula ion dec easing in cen al loca ions wi h une en subu ban g ow h ( he so-called
‘absolu e subu baniza ion’).
•
‘Disu baniza ion’ occu s when he Ca esian P oduc o popula ion changes is classi ied
as Type 5 de elopmen ( he so-called ‘absolu e disu baniza ion’); cen al se lemen s
con inue expe iencing an e en mo e accele a ed decline, while he subu bs display
a slowdown in popula ion g ow h. Type 6 de elopmen ( he so-called ‘ ela i e dis-
u baniza ion’) sees he cen e s con inuing he sha p loss o esiden popula ion, wi h
dec easing popula ions also in he subu bs, o he i s ime since he beginning o
he cycle.
•
The wa e displaying a mode a e eg ow h o cen al loca ions is de ailed in Type
7 de elopmen ( he so-called ‘ ela i e e-u baniza ion’), wi h co e ci ies showing a
decele a ed popula ion decline and he subu bs e idencing an accele a ed decline;
Type 8 de elopmen ( he so-called ‘absolu e e-u baniza ion’), implies a ne inc ease
in cen al popula ions, and subu bs display a ne slowdown o popula ion decline.
Taken oge he , egional popula ion (co e ci y and subu bs) inc eases du ing ‘u baniza-
ion’ and ‘subu baniza ion’, while dec easing in a o o ou e sa elli e se lemen s du ing
he subsequen s ages o ‘disu baniza ion’ and ‘ eu baniza ion’ (Vining and Kon uly 1978).
Wi h he amewo k o he SCT, Noo ds om (1981) in es iga ed local-scale u ban
g ow h pa e ns and p ocesses ex ensi ely, e idencing demog aphic changes is-à- is
sequen ial de elopmen al s ages o a gi en ci y. Acco ding o he SCT, popula ion, se -
lemen s, and economic ac i i ies a e assumed o be signi ican ly in luenced by a mix o
egional de elopmen and socio-cul u al and poli ic/ins i u ional changes a he local scale
(Kon uly and Geye 2003). Noo ds om also a gued ha when a socie y de elops, all he
ac i i ies ha a ec employmen —and, consequen ly, he spa ial s uc u e o popula ions
and se lemen s—unde go (mo e o less in ense) changes a icula ed in o a ious s ages.
Consequen ly, he e ec o en i onmen al condi ions and local policies, which cons i u e he
basic d i e s o popula ion s uc u e and dynamics in mode n socie ies, can be delinea ed
and in e p e ed in a b oade pe spec i e o egional g ow h. The impac o policy and
planning is also emphasized in ligh o he SCT (Ko celli 1986).
Based on his assump ion, his s udy implemen s a spa ially explici in e p e a ion
o me opoli an g ow h and decline o e a su icien ly long ime in e al, conside ing
popula ion change a he local le el as an hones measu e o egional de elopmen pa hs,
aking accoun o he ‘in ensi y’ and ‘spa ial di ec ion’ dimensions join ly (Geye and
Kon uly 1993). We speci ically es ed he assump ions o he SCT delinea ed abo e, mo ing
om a egional o a local app oach ha conside s oge he popula ion dynamics a he
co e, he subu ban and sa elli e loca ions (Kon uly 1992). In o med by a seminal s udy
o Noo ds om (1981), his local-scale app oach inco po a es heo e ical and empi ical
e idence om a ela i ely b oad li e a u e o u ban geog aphy and applied economics
since he la e 1980s.
A he local le el, we assume u ban s uc u e o be basically depending on (i) land,
namely, he a ailable space pe inhabi an , and (ii) popula ion size, namely, he o al numbe
o inhabi an s o , be e , popula ion densi y. Wi h his pe spec i e in mind, he empi ical
analysis o u ban de elopmen may bene i om he compa a i e sc u iny o popula ion
change o e ime and space, as a ailable a an app op ia e geog aphical uni om gene al
censuses (Aple o ich 1983;Schwize 1985;Kawashima 1986). Rega dless o he a iable’s
choice (e.g., Kon uly and Tamma u 2006) o he le el o analysis o u ban de elopmen ,
a sys ema ic e i ica ion o he SCT is achie ed by di iding he u ban a ea in o dis ance
zones om a cen al poin o he co e ci y and g ouping he popula ion esiding in he
Economies 2024,12, 202 5 o 14
municipali ies (o se lemen s) alling wi hin hese zones, in line wi h mains eam empi ical
s udies (e.g., Mo elli e al. 2014).
The ollowing analysis’s s ep consis s in an explici examina ion o popula ion g ow h
(and decline) in agg ega ed dis ic s wi hin a gi en ime pe iod. This empi ical es is
g ounded on a seminal applica ion by Noo ds om (1981), who di ided he ci y o Go hen-
bu g in o communi ies, g ouping hem based on hei dis ance om down own and
s udying he e olu ion o popula ion densi y o hese communi ies o e a ela i ely long-
ime in e al, encompassing 60 yea s. In he same line o hinking, Kawashima (1986),
in a s udy o he de elopmen s ages in he Tokyo me opoli an a ea, classi ied he ci y
in o u ban and u al zones—acco ding o hei dis ance om down own—and analyzed
popula ion changes in hese zones du ing nea ly 30 yea s. S emming om he empi ical
conclusions o he abo e-men ioned s udies (Vining and Kon uly 1977), ou wo k is aimed
a demons a ing how he highes alue o he a ge a iable (popula ion densi y, in he
p esen case) is obse ed i s a small dis ances om a cen al poin o he co e ci y and,
p og essi ely on subsequen imes, mo ing a he away om down own.
Taken as a pu ely mono-cen ic model o egional g ow h (as ex ensi ely documen ed
in ea lie s udies), we adop ed me opoli an A hens in Cen al G eece as an app op ia e
case s udy when in es iga ing and p edic ing he in e -u ban mo emen o he esiden
popula ion o e ime. Besides Is anbul, A hens— he G eek capi al ci y—is one o he
la ges and economically powe ul cen e s in he no h-eas e n Medi e anean a c (Egidi
e al. 2020), ha ing a e y complex de elopmen pa h d i en by a kaleidoscopic mix o
in e nal ac o s (demog aphic dynamics, planning cons ain s, social o ces) and ex e nal
shocks, which include—bu a e no limi ed o— he Tu kish–G eek wa in he ea ly 1920s,
Wo ld Wa II and he consequen ci il wa in G eece, he in ense u al exodus o he 1960s
causing in e nal mig a ion mainly owa d A hens, he accession o he Eu opean Union
in he 1980s, he Olympic decade o he 1990s, he economic decline o he la e 2000s, and,
inally, he COVID-19 pandemic. Toge he wi h census da a, ou s udy—likely o he
i s ime in he li e a u e—o e s a easonable pe spec i e o u u e de elopmen pa hs
based on popula ion p ojec ions in e p e ed in ligh o he Spa ial Cycle Theo y, aken
as an ope a ional con ibu ion o spa ial planning and local de elopmen policies (Vinci
e al. 2022). Reconnec ing pas , p esen , and u u e popula ion dynamics in a local-scale
pe spec i e ypical o u ban analysis ep esen s he o iginal con ibu ion o his s udy o
egional science.
2. Me hodology
This s udy in es iga es he sequen ial s ages o he spa ial cycle in me opoli an A hens
(Cen al G eece) in line wi h he o iginal o mula ion by Klaassen e al. (1981) and he
ex ension by Kawashima (1986). The s udy a ea was ex ensi ely desc ibed by Sal a i e al.
(2018), Zambon and Sal a i (2019), Zambon e al. (2019), and Sal a i (2023). Me opoli an
A hens was di ided in o a ew concen ic zones a ainc easing dis ance om down own
(
0 o 6 km
, 6 o 12 km, 12 o 18 km, 18 o 42 km, 42 o 60 km), conside ing Cons i u ion
Squa e (Pla eia Syn agma os) as he ci y cen e . In cases whe e a gi en municipali y
belonged o wo neighbo ing zones, i was classi ied o be wi hin he zone whe e mos o
i s su ace a ea exis s.
The e olu ion o e ime o he esiden popula ion was hus in es iga ed sepa a ely
in hese zones by agg ega ing municipal da a de i ed om decadal censuses, which
allowed o a ho ough cla i ica ion o spa ial cycle iming (Cecchini e al. 2019). Following
ea lie s udies (Ron os and Papadaskalopoulos 1994;Ron os e al. 2006;Mo elli e al. 2014;
Ciaschini e al. 2023), he in a-me opoli an popula ion ne balance (g ow h s. decline)
was calcula ed on a decadal ime in e al du ing he pe iod 1951–2021. Addi ionally,
he o al popula ion a he municipal le el was p ojec ed o he yea s 2031, 2041, and
2051 using he exponen ial a e o popula ion g ow h du ing he mos ecen in e -census
pe iod (namely, 2011–2021). The me hod used assumes ha popula ion g ow h is no
cons an , e lec ing an exponen ial unc ion o ime (Siampos 1993). This app oach is aken
Economies 2024,12, 202 6 o 14
o be ully app op ia e o popula ion o ecas s acco ding o demog aphic me hodologies
(e.g., Papadakis and Tsimpos 2004). Mo e p ecisely, he econome ic speci ica ion used is
as ollows:
Pn= (1 + )n.Pn−1
whe e n is he ime pe iod be ween n
−
1 and n, is he mean popula ion g ow h a e
be ween n
−
1 and n, P
n
is he popula ion o be p ojec ed a ime n, P
n−1
is he popula ion
a ime n −1; and he e m (1 + ) is ecalled as he g ow h mul iplie , o common a io.
Toge he wi h me opoli an A hens, he s udy a ea included he sa elli e ci ies o
Thebes (Thi a), Halkida (Chalkida), and Co in h (Ko in hos) as a no el con ibu ion o he
empi ical e i ica ion o he SCT in Cen al G eece. Based on he empi ical obse a ion o
census da a and demog aphic p edic ions, his s udy co e s a ela i ely long ime pe iod
encompassing exac ly one cen u y (1951–2051), in ended as a meaning ul ool o egional
policy and spa ial planning in G eece, wi h implica ions o simila coun ies in Eu ope
and ou side he old con inen . Me opoli an A hens was ini ially pa i ioned in o sub-a eas
acco ding o he mos ecen s a is ical and adminis a i e sys em en o ced in he coun y,
namely, he wide a ea o A hens’s conu ba ion (including he municipali y o A hens,
Pi aeus, and he su ounding dis ic s) and he es o he adminis a i e egion o A ica.
This spa ial di ision was conside ed basically app op ia e o ensu e a ull compa ibili y
o popula ion ends o e he selec ed geog aphical uni s om 1951 o he p esen ime.
Mic oso Excel 2016 sp eadshee s, SPSS .26 s a is ical package, and GeoDa 1.22.0.4.9
geog aphical ools we e used o p ocess he empi ical esul s o his s udy.
3. Resul s
A hens’s spa ial cycle is illus a ed in Figu e 2based on long- e m popula ion dynam-
ics. As desc ibed in he me hodological sec ion, he X-axis and he Y-axis o he g aph,
espec i ely, measu e he absolu e change in u ban and subu ban popula ions o e he
s udied decades. The poin s ep esen ing he ollowing decades (1951–1961, 1961–1971,
1971–1981, 1981–1991, and 1991–2001) a e classi ied wi hin he hi d quad an o he spa ial
cycle g aph, co esponding o a Type 3 de elopmen pa h. This sugges s ha subu bs
a ound A hens de eloped con inuously be ween 1951 and 2001. Cohe en wi h a Type 3
de elopmen pa h (‘ ela i e subu baniza ion’), bo h u ban and subu ban popula ions in-
c eased. Du ing he subsequen decades (2001–2011 and 2011–2021), he Ca esian P oduc
o he popula ion change in he wo egions mo ed o he ou h class o he spa ial cycle.
This pa h e lec s a Type 4 de elopmen (‘absolu e subu baniza ion’), wi h he down own
popula ion dec easing while he subu ban popula ion inc easing a an accele a ed a e. As
a whole (co e plus subu bs), he egion con inued g owing in e ms o popula ion. Finally,
based on popula ion o ecas s o he decades 2021–2031, 2031–2041, and 2041–2051, he
Ca esian P oduc o he changes ma ginally e u ned o he hi d side o he spa ial cycle
g aph. These esul s sugges how me opoli an A hens could expe ience a new wa e o
Type 3 de elopmen in he nex yea s, possibly mixing ‘ ela i e subu baniza ion’ wi h a
mode a e (demog aphic) eco e y o co e ci ies.
The spa ial di ec ion and in ensi y o subu ban de elopmen ac oss geog aphical a eas
esul om he empi ical da a analyzed in Table 1. Down own A hens and Pi aeus (namely,
he ci y wi h he la ges ha bo in G eece) we e cons an ly educing hei sha e in he o al
popula ion o he whole a ea. Thei demog aphic ole hal ed be ween 1951 (36.3%) and
2021 (18.9%) o A hens, and educed e en h ee imes o Pi aeus in he same ime in e al,
om 12.6% o 4.9%. A he same ime, Wes e n A ica subu bs showed a signi ican inc ease
in hei popula ion sha e, which e lec s a as e demog aphic inc ease in espec o he co e
ci y, wi h he highes a e (17.1%) obse ed in 1971, he yea when he maximum u ban
concen a ion was obse ed (Sal a i 2023).
Economies 2024,12, 202 7 o 14
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 o 15
Figu e 2. Ci cula diag am o he spa ial cycle in me opoli an A hens, 1951–2051. Sou ce: au ho s’
elabo a ion on popula ion census da a (ELSTAT).
The spa ial di ec ion and in ensi y o subu ban de elopmen ac oss geog aphical
a eas esul om he empi ical da a analyzed in Table 1. Down own A hens and Pi aeus
(namely, he ci y wi h he la ges ha bo in G eece) we e cons an ly educing hei sha e
in he o al popula ion o he whole a ea. Thei demog aphic ole hal ed be ween 1951
(36.3%) and 2021 (18.9%) o A hens, and educed e en h ee imes o Pi aeus in he
same ime in e al, om 12.6% o 4.9%. A he same ime, Wes e n A ica subu bs showed
a signi ican inc ease in hei popula ion sha e, which e lec s a as e demog aphic in-
c ease in espec o he co e ci y, wi h he highes a e (17.1%) obse ed in 1971, he yea
when he maximum u ban concen a ion was obse ed (Sal a i 2023).
Table 1. Pe cen sha e o esiden popula ion in o al popula ion by adminis a i e uni
(1951–2021).
ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS
YEAR
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
Capi al
egion
Ci y o A hens (down own)
36.3
30.7
31.1
26.6
21.5
22.5
19.3
18.9
Depa men o A hens, excep A hens 1
8.6
10.0
10.5
11.5
10.9
11.2
10.6
10.5
Ci y o Pi aeus (down own)
12.6
9.3
6.7
5.9
5.0
5.2
4.8
4.9
Pi aeus Depa men , excep Pi aeus 2
16.8
18.1
17.8
19.5
20.0
19.3
19.0
18.9
Wes e n A ica Dis ic Depa men 3
9.5
15.4
17.1
16.9
16.7
14.3
14.3
14.0
Eas e n A ica Depa men o T anspo 4
5.4
7.1
7.8
10.3
12.6
12.1
14.5
14.9
Res
o A -
ica
P e-
ec .
Depa men o Pi aeus 5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.8
1.1
2.0
2.2
2.0
Depa men o Eas e n A ica 6
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.4
6.2
5.9
7.1
7.3
Figu e 2. Ci cula diag am o he spa ial cycle in me opoli an A hens, 1951–2051. Sou ce: au ho s’
elabo a ion on popula ion census da a (ELSTAT).
Eas e n subu bs’ popula ion weigh in o al a ea inc eased as well om 5.4% (1951) o
14.9% (2021), highligh ing a apid—and almos con inuous—de elopmen p ocess. The
mos emo e a eas o bo h Eas e n and Wes e n A ica ( he so-called ‘ es o A ica’) also
inc eased hei demog aphic weigh since 1991 o 2001. As a no el issue, he sa elli e
ci ies o Thebes, Halkida, and Co in h (si ua ed ou side me opoli an A hens) showed a
ela i e s abili y in hei demog aphic weigh ollowing a mode a e s agna ion (1961–1991).
In o he wo ds, he con ibu ion o such sa elli e ci ies o popula ion deconcen a ion in
me opoli an A hens was modes o null, likely because o es ic ed accessibili y and less
e ec i e anspo a ion se ices, bo h public and p i a e (Ron os and Papadaskalopoulos
1994). This may be explained by he insu icien indus ializa ion o sa elli e ci ies and hei
modes ou ism specializa ion, despi e he p esence o impo an a cheological si es. A
sys ema ic classi ica ion o he s udy a ea by concen ic zone using linea dis ance om
down own A hens allows o delinea ing local de elopmen pa hs agains he dominan
egional g ow h pa e n (Figu e 3).
Economies 2024,12, 202 8 o 14
Table 1. Pe cen sha e o esiden popula ion in o al popula ion by adminis a i e uni (1951–2021).
ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS YEAR
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021
Capi al
egion
Ci y o A hens (down own) 36.3 30.7 31.1 26.6 21.5 22.5 19.3 18.9
Depa men o A hens, excep A hens 18.6 10.0 10.5 11.5 10.9 11.2 10.6 10.5
Ci y o Pi aeus (down own) 12.6 9.3 6.7 5.9 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.9
Pi aeus Depa men , excep Pi aeus 216.8 18.1 17.8 19.5 20.0 19.3 19.0 18.9
Wes e n A ica Dis ic Depa men 39.5 15.4 17.1 16.9 16.7 14.3 14.3 14.0
Eas e n A ica Depa men o T anspo 45.4 7.1 7.8 10.3 12.6 12.1 14.5 14.9
Res o
A ica
P e ec .
Depa men o Pi aeus 51.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.0
Depa men o Eas e n A ica 63.3 3.0 3.0 3.4 6.2 5.9 7.1 7.3
Depa men o Wes e n A ica 72.4 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.9 4.3 4.7 4.9
Ex e nal
ci ies Thi a, Chalkida, Co in h 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.6
To al 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ion on popula ion census da a (ELSTAT). No es:
1
Municipali ies o By onos, Gala siou,
Da ni, Zog a ou, Iliopolis, Kaisa iani, Nea Philadelphia, Nea Chalkidonos, Ta osand Ymi os;
2
Municipali ies o
Agios Dimi ios, Agios Ioannis Ren is, Alimos, A gy oupolis, Voula, Vouliagmeni, Gly ada, D ape sona, Elliniko,
Kalli hea, Ke a sini, Moscha o, Nea Smy ni, Nicea, PalaioFali o, Pe ama, and Va i, excep Pi aeus;
3
Munici-
pali ies o Agia Va a a, Agios Ana gy o, Aigaleo, Kama e o, Ko ydallos, Neo Liosion, Pe is e i, Pe oupoles,
and Chaida i;
4
Municipali ies o Agia Pa aske i, Ama ousi, V ilissi, He aklion, Ki issia, Melissi, Me amo osis,
Nea E y h aia, Nea Ionia, Neo Psychiko, Papago, Pe ki, Philo hei, Chaland io, Chola go, Psychiko, and Ge -
akaandCommuni ies o Ekali, Lyko isi, Nea Pen eli, and Pen eli;
5
Municipali ies o Aegina, Salamina, and
Hyd a (u ban and semi-u ban a eas o o e 5000 inhabi an s);
6
Municipali ies o A lonos, Acha non, Ke a ea,
K opia, La eo iki, Ma a hon, Ma kopoulou Mesogaia, Nea Mak i, Paiania, Pallini, and Spa on—Lou sa and
Communi ies o Agios S e anos, A emis (Lou sa), Glykon Ne on, and O opou (u ban a eas and semi-u ban
a eas o e 5000 esiden );
7
Municipali ies o Asp opy gos, Vilia, Ele sinos, E y h on, Mand as, Mega eon, Ano
Liosion, Zephy io, and Fylis and Communi y o Nea Pe amos (u ban a eas and semi-u ban a eas wi h mo e han
5000 inhabi an s).
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 o 15
Depa men o Wes e n A ica 7
2.4
2.9
2.6
2.9
2.9
4.3
4.7
4.9
Ex e nal
ci ies
Thi a, Chalkida, Co in h
3.7
2.9
2.6
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.6
To al
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ion on popula ion census da a (ELSTAT). No es: 1 Municipali ies o By-
onos, Gala siou, Da ni, Zog a ou, Iliopolis, Kaisa iani, Nea Philadelphia, Nea Chalkidonos, Ta -
osand Ymi os; 2 Municipali ies o Agios Dimi ios, Agios Ioannis Ren is, Alimos, A gy oupolis,
Voula, Vouliagmeni, Gly ada, D ape sona, Elliniko, Kalli hea, Ke a sini, Moscha o, Nea Smy ni,
Nicea, PalaioFali o, Pe ama, and Va i, excep Pi aeus; 3 Municipali ies o Agia Va a a, Agios An-
a gy o, Aigaleo, Kama e o, Ko ydallos, Neo Liosion, Pe is e i, Pe oupoles, and Chaida i; 4 Mu-
nicipali ies o Agia Pa aske i, Ama ousi, V ilissi, He aklion, Ki issia, Melissi, Me amo osis, Nea
E y h aia, Nea Ionia, Neo Psychiko, Papago, Pe ki, Philo hei, Chaland io, Chola go, Psychiko, and
Ge akaandCommuni ies o Ekali, Lyko isi, Nea Pen eli, and Pen eli; 5 Municipali ies o Aegina,
Salamina, and Hyd a (u ban and semi-u ban a eas o o e 5000 inhabi an s); 6 Municipali ies o
A lonos, Acha non, Ke a ea, K opia, La eo iki, Ma a hon, Ma kopoulou Mesogaia, Nea Mak i,
Paiania, Pallini, and Spa on—Lou sa and Communi ies o Agios S e anos, A emis (Lou sa),
Glykon Ne on, and O opou (u ban a eas and semi-u ban a eas o e 5000 esiden ); 7 Municipali ies
o Asp opy gos, Vilia, Ele sinos, E y h on, Mand as, Mega eon, Ano Liosion, Zephy io, and Fylis
and Communi y o Nea Pe amos (u ban a eas and semi-u ban a eas wi h mo e han 5000 inhabi -
an s).
Eas e n subu bs’ popula ion weigh in o al a ea inc eased as well om 5.4% (1951)
o 14.9% (2021), highligh ing a apid—and almos con inuous—de elopmen p ocess.
The mos emo e a eas o bo h Eas e n and Wes e n A ica ( he so-called ‘ es o A ica’)
also inc eased hei demog aphic weigh since 1991 o 2001. As a no el issue, he sa elli e
ci ies o Thebes, Halkida, and Co in h (si ua ed ou side me opoli an A hens) showed a
ela i e s abili y in hei demog aphic weigh ollowing a mode a e s agna ion
(1961–1991). In o he wo ds, he con ibu ion o such sa elli e ci ies o popula ion de-
concen a ion in me opoli an A hens was modes o null, likely because o es ic ed
accessibili y and less e ec i e anspo a ion se ices, bo h public and p i a e (Ron os
and Papadaskalopoulos 1994). This may be explained by he insu icien indus ializa ion
o sa elli e ci ies and hei modes ou ism specializa ion, despi e he p esence o im-
po an a cheological si es. A sys ema ic classi ica ion o he s udy a ea by concen ic
zone using linea dis ance om down own A hens allows o delinea ing local de el-
opmen pa hs agains he dominan egional g ow h pa e n (Figu e 3).
Figu e 3. Popula ion densi y in me opoli an A hens (1951, 2021, 2051) by concen ic bel s e lec ing
he linea dis ance om Pla eia Syn agma os, down own A hens (km). Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ion
on popula ion census da a (ELSTAT).
Table 2 shows he e olu ion o he o al popula ion by concen ic zone as de ined
abo e. The empi ical esul s o his analysis delinea e some impo an conclusions on he
e olu ion o A hens’s popula ion.
Table 2. Popula ion o me opoli an A hens by concen ic zone (km om down own A hens) o
he ime pe iod 1951–2051; ‘To al’ e e s o me opoli an A hens.
Figu e 3. Popula ion densi y in me opoli an A hens (1951, 2021, 2051) by concen ic bel s e lec ing
he linea dis ance om Pla eia Syn agma os, down own A hens (km). Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ion
on popula ion census da a (ELSTAT).
Table 2shows he e olu ion o he o al popula ion by concen ic zone as de ined
abo e. The empi ical esul s o his analysis delinea e some impo an conclusions on he
e olu ion o A hens’s popula ion.
Addi ionally, Table 3displays he a e o popula ion change by concen ic zone. A
spa ial shi in he highes popula ion change a e was ini ially obse ed om cen al zones
o pe iphe al ones. In he zone 0–6 km away om down own A hens, he highes a e
o popula ion change occu ed du ing 1961–1971 (36%). In e es ingly, he highes a e o
popula ion change occu ed one decade ea lie (1951–1961) in he zone 6–12 km away (35%).
Con e sely, i was obse ed only du ing 2001–2011 (57%) o he concen ic zone 12–18 km
away om down own. The highes alue o change obse ed in me opoli an A hens’s
popula ion du ing 1961–1971 could be jus i ied by in ense in e nal mig a ions om u al
