Identifying disaster risk factors and hotspots in Africa from spatiotemporal decadal analyses using INFORM data for risk reduction and sustainable development

Eze, Emmanuel; Siegmund, Alexande
A icle — Published Ve sion
Iden i ying disas e isk ac o s and ho spo s in A ica om
spa io empo al decadal analyses using INFORM da a o isk educ ion
and sus ainable de elopmen
Sus ainable De elopmen
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Eze, Emmanuel; Siegmund, Alexande (2024) : Iden i ying disas e isk ac o s
and ho spo s in A ica om spa io empo al decadal analyses using INFORM da a o isk educ ion
and sus ainable de elopmen , Sus ainable De elopmen , ISSN 1099-1719, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,
Chiches e , UK, Vol. 32, Iss. 4, pp. 4020-4041,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1002/sd.2886
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Iden i ying disas e isk ac o s and ho spo s in A ica om
spa io empo al decadal analyses using INFORM da a o isk
educ ion and sus ainable de elopmen
Emmanuel Eze
1,2,3
| Alexande Siegmund
1,2
1
Ins i u e o Geog aphy & Heidelbe g Cen e
o he En i onmen (HCE), Uni e si y o
Heidelbe g, Heidelbe g, Ge many
2
Depa men o Geog aphy –Resea ch G oup
o Ea h Obse a ion (
geo), UNESCO Chai
on Obse a ion and Educa ion o Wo ld
He i age & Biosphe e Rese e, Heidelbe g
Uni e si y o Educa ion, Heidelbe g, Ge many
3
Geog aphical and En i onmen al Educa ion
Uni , Depa men o Social Science Educa ion,
Uni e si y o Nige ia, Nsukka, Nige ia
Co espondence
Emmanuel Eze, Ins i u e o Geog aphy &
Heidelbe g Cen e o he En i onmen (HCE),
Uni e si y o Heidelbe g, Heidelbe g,
Ge many.
Email: [email p o ec ed]-heidelbe g.de
Abs ac
The incidence and magni ude o haza ds in A ica a e escala ing. Ex an knowledge
base o disas e isk (DR) ends, ac o s, and ho spo s is lacking o he con inen .
He e we applied andom o es machine lea ning eg essions, spa ial s a i ied he -
e ogenei y, and ho spo analyses on INFORM da a o iden i y DR pa e ns, ac o s
and in e ac ions, and no able isk ho spo s. We show ha al hough DR is gene ally
dec easing in A ica, he Eas e n, Sou he n, and Wes e n egions eco d inc easing
DR. Physical exposu e o loods, epidemics, and iolen con lic s a e haza d d i e s o
DR in A ica. O he signi ican DR d i e s a e mos ly clus e ed unde ulne able
g oups and poo in as uc u al coping capaci ies. Human haza ds in e ac wi h o he
ac o s, exhibi ing he highes in luences on DR. P ecisely, 19 ou o 53 A ican coun-
ies in his s udy a e DR ho spo s. E i ea is iden i ied as a new ho spo . Ta ge ed
policies, esilience building, ulne abili y educ ion measu es and comp ehensi e
sus ainabili y-in used solu ions a e equi ed o DR educ ion and sus ainable de el-
opmen in A ica.
KEYWORDS
A ica, disas e isk assessmen , disas e isk educ ion, esilience, sus ainable de elopmen ,
ulne abili y
1|INTRODUCTION
The p e alence o bo h na u al and human-induced haza ds in A ica
has shown a no able inc ease (Aliyu, 2015). Haza ds, when com-
pounded by ulne abili y o insu icien coping capabili ies, o en cul-
mina e in disas e s cha ac e ized by subs an ial loss o li es and
li elihoods (Raju e al., 2022). An o e looked ye c ucial aspec in
unde s anding disas e s e ol es a ound he e olu ion o disas e e -
minology. The dis inc ion be ween ‘unna u al’disas e s in ea lie li e -
a u e (O'Kee e e al., 1976; Wisne e al., 2004) p omp s a clea
di e en ia ion be ween haza ds and disas e s h oughou his s udy.
Haza ds encompass speci ic phenomena, whe he na u al o
human-induced, capable o ins iga ing ad e se socioeconomic and
en i onmen al impac s, including a ali ies o inju ies. On he o he
hand, disas e s mani es as signi ican dis u bances wi hin a commu-
ni y o socie y, b ough abou by he con e gence and in e ac ions o
haza dous e en s, exposu e, ulne abili y, and coping capaci y (Uni ed
Na ions Gene al Assembly [UNGA], 2016). Thus, e o s o mi iga e
disas e s, mus , acco ding o Rahman and Fang (2019), be based on a
comp ehensi e unde s anding o all hese ace s.
A comp ehensi e epo by Mizu o i and Guha-Sapi (2020)
e eals a s a k ise in bo h he equency and se e i y o global disas-
e e en s. They cap u ed disas e e en s as su ging by 74.48% om
4212 e en s in he pe iod be ween 1980 and 1999 o 7348 e en s
Recei ed: 20 July 2023 Re ised: 13 Decembe 2023 Accep ed: 25 Decembe 2023
DOI: 10.1002/sd.2886
This is an open access a icle unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion-NonComme cial License, which pe mi s use, dis ibu ion and ep oduc ion in any
medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed and is no used o comme cial pu poses.
© 2024 The Au ho s. Sus ainable De elopmen published by ERP En i onmen and John Wiley & Sons L d.
4020 Sus ainable De elopmen . 2024;32:4020–4041.
wileyonlinelib a y.com/jou nal/sd
om 2000 o 2019, wi h a endan losses o human li es, li elihoods,
and ecosys ems, amoun ing o illions o dolla s. These disas e -
induced losses a e inimical o he achie emen o global sus ainabili y
amewo ks such as he Agenda 2030 and he Sendai F amewo k o
Disas e Risk Reduc ion [SFDRR] (Uni ed Na ions In e na ional S a -
egy o Disas e Reduc ion [UNISDR], 2015). The undamen al goal o
disas e isk educ ion (DRR), as ou lined by UNGA (2016), is o p e-
en he eme gence o new disas e isks (DR), mi iga e exis ing ones,
and manage any esidual isks o imp o e socie al esilience and he
achie emen o sus ainable de elopmen . I is no ewo hy ha Wen
e al. (2023) desc ibe he e olu ion o he concep o DRR h ough
h ee phases in he 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, ea u ing key pa adigms
o disas e managemen , isk managemen , and esilience manage-
men and de elopmen . Thus, he cu en pa adigm unde sco es he
c i ical link be ween enhancing esilience and sus ainable
de elopmen .
The concep s o esilience and de elopmen emain subjec s o
con en ion, necessi a ing cla i ica ion o collec i e ac ions
(Pa k, 2024). In his s udy, esilience is employed as a allying call, ol-
lowing Pa k (2024), o deno e he ou comes o disas e isk manage-
men (DRM) and DRR ini ia i es. I emphasizes he o i ica ion o a
communi y o socie y's s uc u es and unc ional capaci ies, enabling
hem o wi hs and, assimila e, adjus o, adap , ans o m, and swi ly
eco e om haza d impac s (UNGA, 2016). Such aming o esilience
by UNGA (2016) is likely o be unde s ood as he absence o ulne a-
bili y o suscep ibili y o a communi y o damages om haza ds. In
ac , p io s udies, such as Ca dona e al. (2012) and Ismail-Zadeh
(2022), highligh ulne abili y and exposu e as p ima y d i e s o
disas e s, wi h na u al haza ds ac ing as igge s, and clima e change
in ensi ying hem. Con e sely, o he s udies like Impe iale and Van-
clay (2016,2021), elucida e ha he absence o esilience is no solely
cha ac e ized by ulne abili y, as e en highly ulne able communi ies
possess subs an ial esou ces con ibu ing o hei esilience du ing
c ises and disas e s. Simila ly, La ell e al. (2012) asse ha he inade-
quacy o capaci y is bu one dimension wi hin he con ex o o e all
ulne abili y. This wa an s a ocus on no jus he ulne abili y le els
o communi ies bu also hei esilience le els while conside ing he
mul idimensionali y o hese concep s.
Mul iple dimensions o disas e s numbe ing six ha e been syn he-
sized by Impe iale and Vanclay (2021) o include he: (i) na u e and
a ibu es o he haza d i sel ; (ii) social aspec s o isks and impac s
(including dis ibu ion, pe cep ion, and expe iences); (iii) unde lying
socie al condi ions and ac o s p eceding disas e s; (i ) capaci y o
local indi iduals o lea n om pas ailu es and disas e s o acili a e
sus ainabili y; ( ) unde lying p inciples, objec i es, and app oaches
embedded wi hin DRM; and ( i) e icacy o social p ocesses, se ices,
and suppo sys ems a ailable o a communi y p io o and pos -
disas e s. The complexi ies inhe en in disas e s s em om a complex
in e play o social, en i onmen al, and go e nance ac o s, signi i-
can ly ampli ying hei impac . Such ampli ica ion o en leads o dis-
pa i ies in bo h he dis ibu ion and po en ial impac s o disas e s.
P e ious esea ch, as highligh ed by Impe iale and Vanclay (2021), and
indings om Machlis e al. (2022), a ibu e hese dispa i ies o he
p o ound social dimensions o ulne abili y and a ying le els o cop-
ing abili ies p e alen ac oss di e se egions.
A ica, in pa icula , s ands excep ionally ulne able o he ami i-
ca ions o na u al haza ds. Ba i and Dessus (2022) iden i y a o al o
13 A ican coun ies ou o he 15 mos ulne able coun ies globally.
Haza dous e en s like d ough s and loods ha e u he exace ba ed
po e y in he con inen , causing a decline in GDP by 0.7% and 0.4%
espec i ely (Ba i & Dessus, 2022). The escala ion o po e y sugges s
a likely simul aneous inc ease in ulne abili ies ac oss he egion.
Mo eo e , a epo om The A ica Cen e o S a egic S udies
(2022) e eals a consis en ise in he popula ion a ec ed by disas e s,
wi h p ojec ions indica ing a po en ial doubling by 2050, eaching
nea ly 2.5 billion disas e -a ec ed indi iduals. This conce ning ajec-
o y is closely linked o u baniza ion in haza d-p one egions and
inc eased haza d equencies d i en by clima e change
(Yaghmaei, 2019). The e o e, ailo ed DRR s a egies a e impe a i e,
wi h a ocus on educing ulne abili y dimensions and in en ionally
imp o ing esilience ac oss di e en egions wi hin A ica.
Gi en dispa i ies in disas e dis ibu ion ac oss egions, i 's impe -
a i e o e alua e hese a ia ions ac oss coun ies wi hin A ica, he
con inen mos ulne able o such challenges. Su p isingly, no p io
s udy, o ou knowledge, has del ed in o his c ucial a ea. Hence, ou
s udy pionee s he applica ion o mul iple spa ial s a is ical analyses,
examining a decade's wo h o da a encompassing 53 A ican coun-
ies. This comp ehensi e in es iga ion o e s esh pe spec i es on
na ional-le el DR pa e ns, ends, and ocal poin s, employing spa io-
empo al app oaches such as spa ial s a i ied he e ogenei y (SSH),
op imized ho spo and eme ging ho spo analyses. U ilizing a me icu-
lously cu a ed INFORM da ase , we conside h ee undamen al
dimensions: haza d & exposu e, ulne abili y, and coping capaci y,
consis ing o six ca ego ies and 18 componen s—la gely aligned wi h
dimensions ou lined by Impe iale and Vanclay (2021) ba ing one
aspec (i.e., social aspec s o isks and impac s). Ou me hod hinges on
empi ical analysis bu bea s p ac ical implica ions. By p esen ing
nuanced insigh s in o his o ical DR ends, we aim o u nish da a-
d i en ecommenda ions conduci e o di ec ing DRR e o s ac oss
he egion. Mo eo e , ou explo a ion o eme ging ho spo s se es as
obus e idence o iden i y a eas necessi a ing in e en ion p io i ies
o mi iga ing DR.
2|CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF
THE STUDY
2.1 |Disas e isks, DRR and sus ainable
de elopmen
Na u al phenomena, including olcanic e up ions, p ecipi a ion pa -
e ns esul ing in loods and d ough s, epidemics, and clima ic ends,
o en ans o m in o so-called na u al disas e s. While hese e en s,
e med haza ds, acco ding o (Kelman e al., 2016) a e equen ly
essen ial o he en i onmen and socie y, hei ca as ophic ou -
comes a ise om human-induced ulne abili ies, e oding he na u al
EZE and SIEGMUND 4021
essence o disas e s. Hence, ulne abili ies c ea ed by social p ocesses
ende hese e en s disas ous, necessi a ing a deepe enqui y. Bailey
(2022) simpli ies he disas e concep , highligh ing haza ds and he
social sys em as i s undamen al a iables.
Disas e s, s emming om na u al haza ds, exe p o ound impac s
on de elopmen . They exace ba e ulne abili ies, weaken esilience,
and s ain coping mechanisms (Pal e al., 2021). Fu he mo e, Bendi-
me ad (2003) enume a es ex ensi e damages o he en i onmen ,
economy, and human capi al, leading o dis up ions in de elopmen al
p og ams. Disas e isks (i.e., di e en kinds o po en ial losses),
eme ge om he con e gence o haza ds, exposu e, ulne abili ies,
and coping capaci ies (Impe iale & Vanclay, 2021; Raju e al., 2022;
T og li
c e al., 2022), necessi a ing comp ehensi e conside a ion in
DRR s a egies. As na u al haza ds a e uncon ollable, ocusing on ul-
ne abili ies and coping capaci ies becomes impe a i e (Ginige, 2011).
Some imes, ulne abili y concep s a e insu icien ly co e ed in DR li -
e a u e (Zhou e al., 2015).
Vulne abili y, acco ding o Bi kmann e al. (2006), comp ises sus-
cep ibili y and coping capaci y, which embodies weaknesses a ec ing
communi y well-being, o en in ensi ied by social isks (Impe iale &
Vanclay, 2021; Sama awee a, 2024). Coping capaci ies, i al o eco -
e y, en ail mechanisms ha shape o challenge eco e y in he a e -
ma h o disas e s (Bi kmann & Wisne , 2006). Thus, lack o coping
capaci y is also ulne abili y. Howe e , ec i ying ulne abili ies
doesn' gua an ee inc eased coping capaci y, as exis ing s eng hs
wi hin ulne able communi ies a e o en o e looked
(Sama awee a, 2024). Recen li e a u e emphasizes ulne abili y as
he unde lying cause o disas e s. Kelman (2015) ad oca es o
acknowledging ulne abili y as he p incipal cause o disas e s and
highligh s i s signi icance in global policy amewo ks. Mo eo e ,
Ginige (2011) iews ulne abili y as a con ollable elemen wi hin
disas e s, sugges ing ha managing ulne abili ies is c ucial in disas e
mi iga ion.
Howe e , Sama awee a (2024) c i icizes he aming o ulne a-
bili y, which o en equa es i wi h weakness, incapabili y, and po e y,
a guing ha such a po ayal o e looks i s mul i ace ed na u e,
encompassing socio-economic, poli ical, and cul u al dimensions.
The e o e, add essing ulne abili y comp ehensi ely equi es a holis ic
app oach conside ing hese di e se ac o s. D akes and Ta e (2022)
delinea e social aspec s de e mining ulne abili y, including demo-
g aphics, land enu e, li ing condi ions, and socio-economic s a us.
Hence, speci ic aspec s o ulne abili y o be ackled in any commu-
ni y, egion o s a e a e known. Also, measu es o add ess ulne abil-
i y p ima ily in ol e social in e en ions, albei supplemen ed
occasionally by echnical measu es (Kelman e al., 2016). Holis ically
add essing ac o s con ibu ing o ulne abili y becomes c ucial, pa -
icula ly in policies and ac ions (Bendime ad, 2003).
Un o una ely, he e is a lack o s udies p esen ing he ends and
le els o ulne abili y in A ican coun ies. The a emp o assess ul-
ne abili y in A ica by Ahmadalipou and Mo adkhani (2018) was lim-
i ed o d ough s. D akes and Ta e (2022) con i m ha cu en
esea ch examining social ulne abili ies in lowe -income na ions
ends o ocus on speci ic localized a eas, limi ing he iden i ica ion o
ulne abili y ac o s ac oss wide sphe es. Fu he mo e, insigh s
de i ed om scien i ic s udies conduc ed in middle- and high-income
coun ies may no be di ec ly applicable o ans e able o lowe -
income na ions (D akes & Ta e, 2022). This c ea es a need o a com-
p ehensi e unde s anding o ulne abili y in low-income na ions, such
as A ica, o p o ide a esea ch ep esen a ion necessa y o designing
sus ainable and impac ul in e en ions owa ds ulne abili y educ-
ion. Lowe -income economies can cope less wi h haza ds, as hey
lack esou ces and in as uc u e o p epa edness (Abdel Hamid
e al., 2020). Mo eo e , disas e losses ex end a icious cycle o po -
e y (Hallega e e al., 2020; Sal ucci & San os, 2020).
Coping capaci ies a e in eg al p e equisi es o educed ulne a-
bili y and esilience. Recommending he imp o emen o li ing s an-
da ds and p o ec ion om haza ds o inc eased esilience, Naheed
(2021) de ines esilience as he s abili y and pe sis ence o social
sys ems, in ol ing he enhancemen o adap i e capaci ies h ough
he p o ision o ele an asse s and esou ces o indi iduals, com-
muni ies, o s a es. Thus, ini ia i es ha s eng hen socie ies o
wi hs and he impac o and cope in he ace o disas e s will educe
hei suscep ibili y. These ini ia i es should include capaci y building
and esou ce p o isions (Acha ibasam & Da a, 2024). As a c ucial
ac o o disas e eco e y and adap a ion, Ma in e al. (2021)ad o-
ca e o he inclusion o such esilience componen s in DR assess-
men s. No ably, acu e sho age o skilled p ac i ione s ha e been
iden i ied as a sou ce o delay in ansla ing good policies in o
ac ions (Bang, 2014,2022; Becke & an Nieke k, 2015). Fu he -
mo e, Kea ing e al. (2017) sugges ha esilience p o ides an oppo -
uni y o add ess in e connec ed social and ecological aspec s o DR
and de elopmen .
Designing e ec i e esilience ini ia i es should be p eceded by a
deep unde s anding o a ious needs, conce ns, con ex s, and ulne a-
bili y componen s. Sub o o and Da a (2024) p esen such unde -
s anding as a p e equisi e o disas e go e nance and esilience. In
addi ion, McBean and Rodge s (2010) ad oca e o he es ablishmen
o na ional sys ems, in as uc u e, and social ne wo ks o bols e
esilience, enabling coun ies o be e abso b he impac o na u al
haza ds and hwa hei p og ession in o se e e disas e s. The e o e,
he p epa edness o na ions o mi iga e haza ds and p e en hei
escala ion in o disas e s equi es s eng hening esilience. Conse-
quen ly, esilience e o s should no be ega ded as singula ac ions
bu as ongoing p ocesses. Kapucu e al. (2013) u ge o con inuous,
coo dina ed local planning o esilience as i al o ensu ing sus ain-
abili y. Local planning plays a c ucial ole in building esilience, as Chi-
pangu a e al. (2017) highligh ha communi ies a e he ocal poin o
DR conce ns. Consequen ly, educing ulne abili ies and exposu e
le els a he communi y le el s ands ou as he mos e ec i e
app oach o DRR (Ja a i e al., 2018; Zhou e al., 2015). No ably, p io
esea ch, such as Bang (2014) and Aka e al. (2017), c i iques op-
down hie a chical s uc u es o mi iga ing disas e s, ad oca ing
ins ead o communi y-d i en bo om-up app oaches. Addi ionally,
Jiménez-Acei uno e al. (2020) sugges ha p ope DRR go e nance
app oaches can simul aneously ad ance bo h DRR and sus ainable
de elopmen objec i es.
4022 EZE and SIEGMUND
The li e a u e p o ides e idence ha implemen ing DRR mea-
su es, such as educing haza d exposu e and ulne abili y le els, can
bols e esilience, subsequen ly ad ancing he a ainmen o sus ain-
able de elopmen . Acco ding o Bello e al. (2021), disas e s' conse-
quences a e so p o ound ha de elopmen canno occu sus ainably
wi hou esilience being an inhe en componen o de elopmen poli-
cies. The bene i s de i ed om esilience in managing disas e s a e
in insically linked o de elopmen . Fo ins ance, as highligh ed by
Naheed (2021), esilience leads o a dec ease in a ali ies du ing disas-
e s, diminishes p ope y damages, and sa egua ds socio-ecological
sys ems. These obse ed ad an ages align wi h he economic, social,
and en i onmen al aspec s o sus ainable de elopmen . Fu he mo e,
Kea ing e al. (2017) p e iously concep ualized esilience as he capa-
bili y o a sys em, communi y, o socie y o pu sue i s social, ecologi-
cal, and economic de elopmen objec i es while e ec i ely managing
DR in a mu ually ein o cing manne .
Thus, he widely ecognized pilla s o sus ainable de elopmen
a e cap u ed wi hin he concep o esilience and unde sco e he syn-
e gy be ween DRR and sus ainable de elopmen ac oss a ious
domains, encompassing social, economic, and en i onmen al dimen-
sions. Impe iale and Vanclay (2024) es ablish an explici connec ion
be ween DRR, sus ainable de elopmen , and esilience while empha-
sizing wellbeing imp o emen , esou ces, se ices, capaci ies, and
skills enhancemen as he key o achie ing DRR, esilience, and sus-
ainable de elopmen . Simila ly, Naheed (2021) con ends ha s a e-
gies and in es men s in DRR a e signi ican ly ied o educing po e y
and equi ably enhancing social ounda ions, bea ing in mind he needs
o u u e gene a ions. Alike, Akanle e al. (2022) desc ibe po e y as a
majo conce n o de elopmen and he success o he SDGs. Mo e-
o e , Ginige (2011) asse s ha educing ulne abili y s ands as he
cen al objec i e o DRR wi hin he amewo k o sus ainable
de elopmen .
The in ica e ela ionship be ween DRR, ulne abili y educ ion,
esilience building, and sus ainable de elopmen equi es a ca e ul
policy app oach o a oid de imen al ou comes. P e ious esea ch like
Thomalla e al. (2018) highligh s he ailu e o DRR esea ch o
acknowledge and add ess how de elopmen al p ocesses con ibu e
o he undamen al causes o disas e s. Thus, ques ions a ise as o
wha de elopmen would sol e, a he han exace ba e, he p oblem
o disas e s. Fo ins ance, ea lie esea ch by Naheed (2021) es ab-
lished a connec ion be ween unplanned u baniza ion and heigh ened
ulne abili y le els. The e o e, inapp op ia e de elopmen p ac ices
end o ampli y, a he han diminish, ulne abili y o
DR. Acknowledging his eali y, Thomalla e al. (2018) ad oca e o
ans o ma i e changes owa ds equi able, esilien , and sus ainable
de elopmen . They p opose a need o challenge p e ailing alues and
objec i es in exis ing de elopmen p ac ices, c i ically e alua e he
de iciencies in de elopmen and DRR app oaches, and ad oca e o
adical policy shi s and sys emic changes in social sys ems o mi iga e
isks and coun e ac unsus ainable de elopmen .
The e o e, policy gaps eme ge conce ning DRR and sus ainable
de elopmen . Acco ding o Kelman (2015), comp ehensi e DRR
amewo ks ough o e ec i ely balance he concep s o haza ds,
ulne abili y, and esilience. Simila ly, Impe iale and Vanclay (2024)
sugges ha de elopmen policies, plans, p og ams, and p ojec s
should acknowledge, in ol e, and empowe he p ocesses o social
lea ning and sus ainabili y ans o ma ion, which a e undamen al o
os e ing p oac i e esilience. Ad ancing esea ch, policy, and p ac ice
in add essing ulne abili y and esilience o sus ainable de elopmen
manda es a clea unde s anding o he complexi ies in ol ed. Kelman
(2015) a gue ha comp ehending he long- e m causes and conse-
quences o ulne abili y and esilience equi es insigh s gleaned om
a ious sou ces and con ex s o de elop di e se in e en ion s a e-
gies. Mo eo e , policies d i en by in o ma ion a e impe a i e o p o-
g ess bo h DRR e o s and sus ainable de elopmen (Chen
e al., 2021). Fu he gaps exis in he lack o long- e m analyses o
DR in A ican coun ies, encompassing he a ious componen s
in ol ed. This dea h o analysis could po en ially hinde he con i-
nen 's abili y o enhance esilience o p epa edness and DRR, which
a e c ucial elemen s o ad ancing owa ds isk-in o med sus ainable
de elopmen .
P e ious con inen al s udies in A ica ha e p ima ily ocused on
wo majo haza ds: loods and d ough s. Ahmadalipou and Mo ad-
khani (2018) conduc ed an assessmen ha e alua ed his o ical
d ough ulne abili y and p ojec ed his ulne abili y un il he end o
he cen u y. They iden i ied Egyp , Tunisia, and Alge ia as he leas
ulne able coun ies o d ough , con as ing Chad, Nige , and Malawi
as he mos ulne able in A ica. Simila ly, Li e al. (2016) iden i ied
E hiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, Nige ia, Libya, and Sudan as coun-
ies p one o loods in A ica. They highligh ed uno , pe capi a
GDP, popula ion, and u baniza ion a e as signi ican ulne abili y ac-
o s in luencing spa ial dispa i ies ela ed o looding. Howe e , s ud-
ies encompassing haza ds, ulne abili y, and coping capaci ies as
in e connec ed componen s o disas e s a e sca ce, p omp ing he
necessi y o his s udy. Ou esea ch aims o assess his o ical DR
spanning om 2012 o 2022. The objec i e is o e eal ends, pin-
poin signi ican a iables d i ing hese ends, and iden i y ho spo s.
Wi hin ho spo s, as indica ed by Shi e al. (2016), he occu ences o
haza ds su pass coping capaci ies, esul ing in inc eased ulne abil-
i ies. Fu he mo e, Szabo e al. (2016) emphasize ha he ailu e o
moni o ho spo s could impede p og ess in bo h sus ainable de elop-
men ini ia i es and he achie emen o he SDGs.
2.2 |The index o isk managemen (INFORM)
amewo k
The INFORM is a isk model ha encompasses h ee c ucial dimen-
sions o haza ds & exposu e, ulne abili y, and lack o coping capaci y,
consis en wi h disas e li e a u e. Acco ding o he Join Resea ch
Cen e [JRC] (2023), physical exposu e and se e i y o speci ic na u al
and human-induced haza ds a e equally weigh ed and agg ega ed o
compose he Haza d and Exposu e dimension. Unde he ulne abili y
dimension, socio-economic ulne abili y and ulne able g oups a e
he componen s conside ed in he de e mina ion o he inal DR index
(Figu e 1). Las ly, he lack o coping capaci y dimension inco po a es
EZE and SIEGMUND 4023

DRR p og ams, emphasis on mi iga ion and p epa edness, eme gency
esponse, and eco e y capabili ies o coun ies' go e nmen s.
The e o e, he Join Resea ch Cen e (JRC) o he Eu opean Com-
mission de eloped he composi e INFORM model comp ising 53 indi-
ca o s o gauge ac o s o global humani a ian c ises and DR, in
suppo o ini ia i es like he SFDRR, 17 SDGs and he global esil-
ience agenda (Ma in-Fe e e al., 2017). The componen s ha make
up he h ee dimensions o he INFORM model ha e been ca e ully
selec ed and cu a ed based on scien i ic li e a u e jus i ica ion, obus -
ness, anspa ency, eliabili y, global consis ency, and scalabili y
(JRC, 2023). The mul iplica i e equa ion (Equa ion 1) emphasizes he
equal ea men o he h ee dimensions—haza ds & exposu e, ulne -
abili y, and lack o coping capaci y—wi hin he INFORM model o gen-
e a e he esul ing DR index, usually o e all isk sco es ou o 10 pe
coun y (JRC, 2023).
Risk ¼Haza d&Exposu e1
3Vulne abili y1
3Lack o coping capaci y1
3ð1Þ
As he i s global, open-sou ce, and egula ly upda ed ool p o-
iding an e idence-based app oach o isk analysis, he INFORM
model c ea es an oppo uni y o de eloping a comp ehensi e unde -
s anding o DR ac oss 191 coun ies (Ma in-Fe e e al., 2017). The
u ili y o he INFORM model as a long- e m da a pool lies in i s po en-
ial o s imula e na ional-, egional-, o global-le el p oac i e DRR ini-
ia i es, he p io i y alloca ion o esou ces and imp o ing disas e
p epa edness based on his o ical ends. Howe e , he absence o
egional o na ional-scale s udies employing he INFORM model
wi hin A ica a he ime o w i ing his pape (in 2023) is a signi ican
gap, wa an ing immedia e a en ion o ha ness i s po en ial bene i s
in he con inen 's DRR s a egies.
P e ious compa a i e s udies, such as hose by Becca i (2016),
and Visse e al. (2020), ha e examined he INFORM model alongside
o he indica o -based assessmen s. Analyses by Visse e al. (2020)
e alua ed a ious c i e ia including de ini ion p ecision, handling o
unce ain y, da a comple eness, empo al alignmen , and agg ega ion
me hods. The indings consis en ly sugges ha he INFORM model
demons a es obus ness, alidi y, eliabili y, and highe pe o mance
in compa ison o o he models in simila domains. The e o e, he
obus ness and supe io pe o mance o he INFORM model, as indi-
ca ed by compa a i e s udies ac oss a ious eliabili y c i e ia, endo se
i s sui abili y and c edibili y as an e ec i e ool o comp ehensi e isk
assessmen and in o med decision-making o DRR, hence i s use in
his s udy.
The componen s, ca ego ies, and dimensions o he INFORM
model (Figu e 1) depic he comp ehensi e co e age o he da ase
used in i s de elopmen . The six ca ego ies (i.e., na u al haza ds,
human haza ds, socioeconomic ulne abili y, ulne able g oups, ins i-
u ional capaci y, and in as uc u e capaci y) ha make up he h ee
dimensions (i.e., haza d and exposu e, ulne abili y, and lack o coping
capaci y) pe ec ly align wi h concep s inco po a ed in DR assess-
men s. I has been widely acknowledged ha haza ds unc ion as ig-
ge s o isks, and hei damaging impac can a y signi ican ly based
FIGURE 1 Componen s o he INFORM model. Sou ce: Modi ied om Ma zi e al., (2021); Ma in-Fe e e al. (2017).
4024 EZE and SIEGMUND
on he le el o exposu e and ulne abili y p esen in he a ec ed
egions (Ma in e al., 2021). In he A ican con ex , he incidence o
bo h na u al and human-induced haza ds has escala ed (Aliyu, 2015).
Na u al haza ds in A ica, while less equen , possess he po en ial o
yield highe a ali ies and igge g ea e popula ion displacemen
compa ed o human haza ds, as highligh ed by Bang (2022). Wi hin
he INFORM model, physical exposu e o he speci ied haza ds is
used o he compu a ion o he na u al haza d ca ego y. The
INFORM model, ocusing on he human haza d aspec , inco po a es
p esen and an icipa ed isks associa ed wi h socie al h ea s such as
iolen con lic s encompassing ci il wa s, un es , high-in ensi y c ime,
and e o ism (Ma in-Fe e e al., 2017).
The inclusion o iolen con lic s as human haza ds is wa an ed,
especially in ligh o p ojec ions by he Wo ld Bank (Co al
e al., 2020) indica ing ha by 2030, a ound wo- hi ds o he
wo ld's ex emely impo e ished popula ion will inhabi egions cha -
ac e ized by agili y and con lic . This p ojec ion poses a signi ican
challenge o he global sus ainabili y agenda encapsula ed in he Sus-
ainable De elopmen Goals (SDGs) and h ea ens o impede he
p og ess al eady achie ed. A ecen decadal analysis by Ande son
e al. (2021), spanning om 2009 o 2019, e eals ha iolen con-
lic s in sub-Saha an A ica, no ably in egions like Sou h Sudan and
Nige ia, exace ba ed ood insecu i y o a g ea e ex en han
d ough s o locus swa ms. Simila ly, Adaawen e al. (2019) ound
widesp ead d ough - ela ed a me –he de con lic s and wa e en-
sions o p ecede iolen con lic s in he Sahel, Eas e n, and Sou he n
A ica. Consequen ly, i becomes e iden ha iolen con lic s in en-
si y ulne abili y le els as well. Fu he mo e, as indica ed by Caso
e al. (2023), he co-occu ence o iolen con lic s wi h disas e s
leads o se e e consequences. They p esen a consis en inc ease in
he occu ence o coun ies acing bo h a med con lic and concu -
en disas e s, unde sco ing he compounded challenges posed by
hese dual c ises.
The INFORM model conside s wo p ima y ulne abili y
ca ego ies: socioeconomic ulne abili y and ulne able g oups. These
ca ego ies encompass aspec s such as income, inequali y, o e all well-
being, and speci ic g oups o indi iduals mo e p one o disas e s due
o inhe en o ex e nal ci cums ances. Social ac o s play a pi o al ole
in he ealm o disas e s and isk in ensi ica ion, as asse ed by Bailey
(2022) and suppo ed by s udies om Sama awee a (2024) and Impe -
iale and Vanclay (2021). Mo eo e , he mul iplie e ec o clima e
change, po e y, and social insecu i y, acco ding o Sche an e al.
(2019), wo sens humani a ian c ises. Thus, his s udy's inco po a ion
o hese social ac o s is alida ed by hei po en ial o exace ba e
isks associa ed wi h disas e s. No ably, he indica o s unde bo h ul-
ne abili y ca ego ies closely co espond o he social aspec s, exclud-
ing land enu e, ou lined as c i ical de e minan s o ulne abili y by
D akes and Ta e (2022). The ins i u ional and in as uc u al compo-
nen s cons i u e he lack o coping capaci y dimension wi hin he
INFORM model. Ma in-Fe e e al. (2017) in eg a ed go e nmen al
ini ia i es aimed a enhancing esilience, disas e managemen , and
mi iga ion h ough o ganized ac i i ies and exis ing in as uc u e.
S udies, including he wo k o McBean and Rodge s (2010), ad oca e
o he es ablishmen o ins i u ional sys ems and obus
in as uc u e as c ucial elemen s in os e ing esilience and p e en -
ing he escala ion o haza ds in o disas e s.
Inco po a ing all a iables om he INFORM model o e s c ucial
insigh s ha signi ican ly con ibu e o disas e educa ion and knowl-
edge in A ica. As highligh ed by Zhang and Wang (2022), he e's cu -
en ly a limi ed p esence o disas e educa ion publica ions o
esea ch om A ican coun ies, signaling a need o enhancemen in
his a ea. Recognizing he po en ial o disas e educa ion, as sug-
ges ed by AlQah any and Abubaka (2020), holds p omise in ele a ing
disas e awa eness and p epa edness. This, in u n, can os e essen-
ial posi i e beha io s conduci e o DRR and subsequen ly ad ance
sus ainable de elopmen .
3|METHODS
3.1 |Da a sou ce
We ob ained he INFORM isk model ou pu o he yea 2023 om
h ps://d mkc.j c.ec.eu opa.eu/in o m-index/. Relying on da a span-
ning om 2012 o 2022, his s udy ex ac ed componen - and
ca ego y-le el da a o analysis, consis ing o 29 a iables pe annum
(Table 1). Meanwhile, he o e all isk index o he INFORM model
se ed as he dependen a iable o ele an analyses conduc ed in
his s udy. The INFORM model is es eemed among he op h ee
indexes in clima e isk esea ch, known o i s adhe ence o s anda d-
ized me hodologies and scien i ic concep ual amewo ks (Bo nho en
e al., 2019; Ga schagen e al., 2021). Addi ionally, p io esea ch has
ex ensi ely e alua ed he eliabili y and alidi y o he INFORM index
in DR assessmen . Fo ins ance, Egawa e al. (2018) unde sco ed he
c edibili y o he INFORM da a as a ep esen a i e DR index. Simila ly,
Bi kmann e al. (2022) a i med he da ase 's eliabili y, highligh ing a
ema kable in e nal consis ency and indica o eliabili y exceeding
90%, hence ou adop ion o his da a o his s udy.
3.2 |Da a p epa a ion
Da a was ob ained in clean XLS o ma . We hen p epa ed wo sepa-
a e se s o da a o he in ended long- e m analyses. Fi s ly, he mean
alue was calcula ed ac oss he en i e da ase o each a iable pe
coun y wi hin he ime ame o 2012–2022. This was used o he
decadal mean analyses in he s udy. Subsequen ly, he comple e da a-
se was compiled o each coun y o he decadal analyses, main ain-
ing he o iginal s uc u e pe a iable.
3.3 |Da a analyses
3.3.1 | T end analyses
To examine he ends in DR, ou s udy employed a combina ion o
desc ip i e cha plo s and he Mann-Kendall mono onic end analy-
sis me hod (MK). The desc ip i e cha plo s, gene a ed using he
EZE and SIEGMUND 4025
ggplo 2 package in R e sion 4.2.1, we e designed as sca e plo s
wi h a smoo hed line o isually ep esen he pa e n in he da a.
These isualiza ions allowed us o illus a e he obse ed ends
e ec i ely.
In addi ion o he cha plo s, we conduc ed he MK using he
Kendall package o McLeod and McLeod (2015) o igo ously assess
he p esence and na u e o mono onic ends in he DR da a. The MK,
in oduced by Kendall (1975), is a non-pa ame ic s a is ical es spe-
ci ically designed o e alua e whe he alues in a da ase demons a e
consis en ends o inc ease, dec ease, o s abili y o e ime. This
me hod is pa icula ly ad an ageous as i does no ely on assump-
ions ega ding he dis ibu ion o he da a, ensu ing obus ness in
end analysis.
Hence, o he DR end analyses o A ica o he pe iod 2012–
2022, we ollowed wo majo s eps: i s , gene a ing desc ip i e cha
plo s h ough he ggplo 2 package in R o isually depic pa e ns in
he da a. Secondly, we pe o med he MK using he Kendall package
in R o s a is ically assess he p esence and na u e o mono onic
ends in he DR da ase . The p- alues we e compu ed a a 5% signi i-
can le el o highligh signi ican ends, i any. This combined
app oach allowed o bo h isual and s a is ical analyses, p o iding a
comp ehensi e unde s anding o DR ends wi hou imposing s in-
gen assump ions on he da a's dis ibu ion. R sc ip s used o end
analyses a e con ained in he Da a S1. A posi i e alue om he ou -
pu means ha he end is inc easing, while a nega i e alue means
ha he end is dec easing.
3.3.2 | Va iable impo ance analyses
This s udy ex ensi ely explo ed a iables' impo ance h ough he
applica ion o andom o es eg ession analyses. To achie e his, we
TABLE 1 Va iables used in he s udy.
Va iable ole Va iable name Va iable ype Pu poses
Dependen a iable INFORM isk O e all isk le el MKTA, VIDA, VIDMA, HSA, SSHq
Independen a iables Physical exposu e o ea hquakes Na u al haza d VIDA, VIDMA
Physical exposu e o loods Na u al haza d VIDA, VIDMA
Physical exposu e o sunamis Na u al haza d VIDA, VIDMA
Physical exposu e o opical cyclones Na u al haza d VIDA, VIDMA
Physical exposu e o d ough s Na u al haza d VIDA, VIDMA
Physical exposu e o epidemics Na u al haza d VIDA, VIDMA
P ojec ed con lic isk Human haza d VIDA, VIDMA
Cu en highly iolen con lic in ensi y Human haza d VIDA, VIDMA
De elopmen & dep i a ion Socioeconomic ulne abili y VIDA, VIDMA
Inequali y Socioeconomic ulne abili y VIDA, VIDMA
Economic dependency Socioeconomic ulne abili y VIDA, VIDMA
Up oo ed people Vulne able g oups VIDA, VIDMA
Heal h condi ions Vulne able g oups VIDA, VIDMA
Child en U5 Vulne able g oups VIDA, VIDMA
Recen shocks Vulne able g oups VIDA, VIDMA
Food secu i y Vulne able g oups VIDA, VIDMA
O he ulne able g oups Vulne able g oups VIDA, VIDMA
DRR Ins i u ional coping capaci y VIDA, VIDMA
Go e nance Ins i u ional coping capaci y VIDA, VIDMA
Communica ion Ins i u ional coping capaci y VIDA, VIDMA
Physical in as uc u e In as uc u al coping capaci y VIDA, VIDMA
Access o heal hca e In as uc u al coping capaci y VIDA, VIDMA
Ca ego y a iables Na u al haza ds Haza d MKTA, SSHq
Human haza ds Haza d MKTA, SSHq
Vulne able g oups Vulne abili y MKTA, SSHq
Socio-economic ulne abili y Vulne abili y MKTA, SSHq
In as uc u e Coping capaci y MKTA, SSHq
Ins i u ional Coping capaci y MKTA, SSHq
Abb e ia ions: HSA, ho spo analyses; MKTA, Mann-Kendall end analyses; VIDA, a iable impo ance decadal analyses; SSHq, spa ial s a i ied
he e ogenei y q-s a is ics; VIDMA, a iable impo ance decadal mean analyses.
4026 EZE and SIEGMUND
employed he andomFo es Explaine package, ecognized o i s
obus ness in explaining a iable impo ance wi hin andom o es
models, as de eloped by Paluszynska e al. (2020). The analyses we e
conduc ed using R e sion 4.2.1, and he R sc ip s u ilized o hese
analyses a e p o ided in he Da a S1 o e e ence.
Ou me hodology encompassed a wo- old in es iga ion, using
bo h decadal and decadal mean da a o independen and dependen
a iables in Table 1 o all A ican coun ies o he pe iod 2012–
2022. To iden i y he pi o al ac o s in luencing DR, an unsupe ised
Random Fo es (RF) eg ession consis ing o 500 ees was ained.
Subsequen ly, we assessed he dis ibu ion o minimal dep h de i ed
om he cons uc ed o es h ough he applica ion o he min_d-
ep h_dis ibu ion unc ion. Fu he mo e, a ious o he c ucial impo -
ance measu es, including he numbe o nodes, accu acy dec ease
(MSE inc ease), Gini dec ease (node pu i y inc ease), numbe o ees,
imes_a_ oo , and p- alue, we e de i ed. To del e deepe in o he s a-
is ical aspec s o he me hodology we employed o de e mine op
impo an DR a iables in his s udy, Paluszynska (2017) p o ides
ex ensi e analysis wo h explo ing.
In summa y, he me hodology used o asce aining impo an
a iables o bo h decadal and decadal mean DR ac o s h ough he
andomFo es Explaine package encompassed he ollowing s eps:
S ep 1: T aining o he da a wi h a andomFo es classi ie com-
p ising 500 ees.
S ep 2: U ilizing he c ea ed o es wi h he min_dep h_dis ibu-
ion unc ion o acqui e he dis ibu ion o minimal dep h. A o al o
se en measu es o impo ance –mean minimal dep h, numbe
o nodes, accu acy dec ease (MSE inc ease), Gini dec ease (node
pu i y inc ease), numbe o ees, imes_a_ oo , and p- alues a e
ob ained om ou analyses and used in he nex s ep.
S ep 3: Plo ing he op en impo an a iables alongside he dis-
ibu ion o minimal dep h.
S ep 4: Visualizing mul i-way impo ance wi h mean squa ed e o
pos -pe mu a ion and he inc ease in he node pu i y index (y-axis).
3.3.3 | Spa ial s a i ied he e ogenei y (SSH) models
Spa ial S a i ied He e ogenei y (SSH) models se e o un a el associ-
a ions be ween geog aphical a ibu es by compa ing a ia ions in
egional and global da a (Wang e al., 2010; Wang e al., 2016). We
conduc ed ou analysis le e aging he Geog aphical de ec o ool, a
widely acclaimed me hod o assessing he powe o de e minan s
and a ibu ions o SSH (Song, 2021). We sough o iden i y and mea-
su e he he e ogenei y wi h spa ial s a a o ou DR da ase s, assess
he coupling be ween ac o s Y and X wi hou assuming linea i y o
hei associa ion, and las ly de e mine he in e ac ion be ween explan-
a o y ac o s X1 o X6 (co esponding o he six ca ego y-le el a i-
ables o DR, i.e., na u al haza ds, human haza ds, ulne able g oups,
socio-economic ulne abili y, In as uc u e, and ins i u ional) and a
esponse ac o o Y (DR index).
Th ee majo s eps we e ollowed in he SSH model pe o med in
his s udy:
S ep 1: mapping esponse a iable Y in s a a acco ding o X using
he isk de ec o unc ion;
S ep 2: using he ac o de ec o q-s a is ic o measu e he deg ee
o spa ial s a i ied he e ogenei y o a a iable Y i Y is s a i ied by
i sel ; and he de e minan powe o an explana o y a iable X on Y i
Y is s a i ied by X;
S ep 3: employing he in e ac ion de ec o o e eal whe he he
isk ac o s X1 o X6 ha e an in e ac i e in luence on a esponse
a iable Y.
Using he decadal mean alue o he six ca ego y-le el a iables
as X1 o X6 and he INFORM DR model as Y, we ob ained h ee c u-
cial esul s: he isk de ec o , ac o de ec o (q-s a is ic), and in e ac-
ion de ec o . The isk de ec o illus a es how he esponse ac o Y
a ies ac oss s a a de ined by X; he ac o de ec o assesses he
le el o spa ial s a i ied he e ogenei y wi hin a ac o Y when Y is
s a i ied by i sel . Fu he mo e, i quan i ies he de e minan powe
o an explana o y ac o X on Y when Y is s a i ied by X. The in e ac-
ion de ec o sc u inizes whe he isk ac o s like X1 o X6 exhibi an
in e ac i e in luence on he esponse ac o Y. Reade s seeking in-
dep h s a is ical insigh s in o he SSH a e di ec ed o Wang e al.
(2016) o u he de ails.
3.4 |Ho spo analyses
Fo ou analysis, we employed wo undamen al echniques, namely
he op imized ho spo analyses and eme ging ho spo analyses, using
A cGIS P o e sion 3.0.2. The Ho Spo Analysis ool in A cGIS
employs he Ge is-O d Gi* s a is ic (Ge is & O d, 1992) o compu e
z-sco es and p- alues o each ea u e in a da ase , e ealing spa ial
clus e s whe e ea u es wi h ei he high o low a ibu e alues end
o clus e oge he (Es i, 2023a). Addi ional esul s om he eme ging
ho spo analyses inco po a e ho spo bin classi ica ion based on he
MK accoun ing o empo al dimensions o he da a. Consequen ly,
hese complemen a y me hods con ibu e o iden i ying signi ican
spa ial pa e ns o DR in A ica. They highligh a eas wi h high o low
alues conce ning neighbo ing ea u es and desc ibe he ends o DR
pe coun y based on he DR index spanning om 2012 o 2022. This
combined app oach p o ides a comp ehensi e unde s anding o he
spa ial dis ibu ion and empo al ends o DR wi hin he da ase .
These me hodologies a e widely acknowledged o hei e icacy
in pa e n analysis (Khan e al., 2022) and we u ilized hem o un a el
he spa ial and empo al a ia ions, pa e ns, and eme ging ho spo s
o DR ac oss A ica. While he op imized ho spo analysis se es o
iden i y spa ial ela ionships and s a is ically signi ican clus e s o DR
ho spo s and cold spo s wi hin he A ican egion, he eme ging ho -
spo analysis adds a empo al dimension by sc u inizing he e ol ing
pa e ns o DR pe coun y du ing he s udy pe iod (2012–2022). The
empo al aspec s o he eme ging ho spo analysis enabled us o cap-
u e he dynamic na u e o DR ho spo s and cold spo s, p o iding
insigh s in o he changing pa e ns o e ime in he pe iod unde con-
side a ion. Toge he , bo h analyses e eal coun ies ha demand
ocused a en ion and u gen in e en ion measu es.
EZE and SIEGMUND 4027
assessmen highligh ed Chad and Nige as highly ulne able coun ies
in A ica, co ela ing wi h ou indings o inc easing DR in hese
egions and hei designa ion as ho spo s. Simila ly, Li e al.'s (2016)
A ica-wide lood disas e assessmen iden i ied E hiopia, Sudan, and
Uni ed Republic o Tanzania as among he mos a ec ed coun ies,
consis en wi h ou iden i ica ion o hese na ions as expe iencing is-
ing DR and as ho spo s. The a ying le els and ends o DR iden i ied
in ou s udy align wi h he isk dis ibu ion dimension expounded by
Impe iale and Vanclay (2021). The a iabili y obse ed in DR le els
and ho spo s ac oss di e en egions and he luc ua ing ends o e
ime esona e wi h he concep o isk dis ibu ion as an essen ial
componen in unde s anding he spa ial and empo al dynamics o
isks.
The declining end in in as uc u al coping capaci y migh signi y
imp o emen s in in as uc u e de elopmen , po en ially a ibu ed o
inc eased in es men s o ini ia i es a ge ing in as uc u e esilience,
possibly in luenced by global amewo ks like he UN's Agenda 2030
and SFDRR. These ini ia i es could be ansla ing in o speci ic
TABLE 5 Resul s o s a i ied de ec ed isks.
Co e disas e isk ac o s Ve y low (0) Ve y low (1) Low (2) Medium (3) High (4) Ve y high (5)
Human haza d Con inen al 1.5 2.86 3.14 3.43 4.55 5
Cen al 2 2.5 4 4 4.67 5
Eas e n 1 3 3.33 3 4.75 5
No he n *3.5 2 3 3.5 *
Sou he n *2.71 *3.33 **
Wes e n *2.89 3 4 5 5
In as uc u e Con inen al *1.5 2 2.7 3.39 4.05
Cen al ***2 3.67 4.75
Eas e n *1.5 ** 3.75 4.43
No he n **2 3.25 4 *
Sou he n ** 2.67 2.75 3.33
Wes e n **2 3.33 3.63
Ins i u ional Con inen al **2.91 3.42 3.33 4.09
Cen al ** 3 3 4.4
Eas e n **2.75 4 4.25 4.33
No he n ***3.25 2 4
Sou he n **3 2.75 3 *
Wes e n **3 3.86 3 3
Na u al haza d Con inen al *2 2.33 3.6 3.64 *
Cen al *2 2 4.29 *
Eas e n ***3.63 4 *
No he n ***3 3.33 *
Sou he n **2.33 3 3.33 *
Wes e n **2.5 3.54 *
Socio-economic ulne abili y Con inen al **2.5 2.89 3.56 4.5
Cen al ** 2.5 4 5
Eas e n **1.5 4 5
No he n **33 4 *
Sou he n ***2.5 2.86 4
Wes e n ***3.25 3.33 4
Vulne able g oups Con inen al *1.67 2.4 2.94 3.44 4.72
Cen al **2 3 4 4.6
Eas e n *1.5 *3.5 3.33 4.83
No he n *2334*
Sou he n ***2.33 3 4
Wes e n **2.5 3 3.75 5
*No s a a membe ship.
4034 EZE and SIEGMUND

imp o emen s in physical in as uc u es and access o heal hca e, as
cap u ed in he INFORM model. Con e sely, he escala ing lack o
ins i u ional coping capaci y could mi o challenges in go e nance,
esou ce alloca ion, co up ion, o he e icacy o disas e manage-
men policies. Howe e , ou s udy lacks addi ional da a o del e dee-
pe in o he speci ic easons o hese ends beyond he indica o s
wi hin he INFORM model.
Addi ionally, i 's impo an o no e ha he da a analyzed in his
pape pe ains o 2012–2022, a pe iod p eceding ecen disas e s
occu ing be ween Ap il and Sep embe 2023. These disas e s, s em-
ming om na u al haza ds such as he loods in Libya, DR Congo, and
Rwanda, he ea hquake in Mo occo, wild i es in Alge ia, and he
cyclone in Mozambique, a e no accoun ed o in ou analysis. These
ecen e en s migh ha e in luenced he e ol ing landscape o DR in
A ica, po en ially al e ing he ends and dynamics obse ed in ou
s udy. Thei omission unde sco es a limi a ion in ou analysis, indica -
ing he need o u he assessmen and upda ed da a o comp ehen-
si ely cap u e he con empo a y scena io o DR in he egion.
5.2 |Disas e isk d i e s in A ica
Ou indings pinpoin ed key d i e s o DR, including epidemics, lood
exposu e, p ojec ed con lic isk, de elopmen indica o s, displace-
men , child heal h, ood secu i y, go e nance, in as uc u e, heal h-
ca e access, and communica ion. App oxima ely 43% o he coun ies
assessed ell wi hin high and e y high clus e s o DR le els. Ou
con inen al-wide indings e ealed ha ulne able g oups and human-
induced haza ds collec i ely accoun ed o mo e han 70% o he
explana ion o he DR index. E iden ly, he in e ac ion be ween
human-induced haza ds and ac o s in o he ca ego ies exe ed he
mos signi ican in luence on DR ac oss he con inen . The in e ac ion
be ween human-induced haza ds, encompassing cu en highly iolen
con lic s and p ojec ed con lic isks, eme ged as he p ima y ampli ie
o DR ac oss he A ican con inen . This concu s wi h p ojec ions
made by Co al e al. (2020), highligh ing a g im ou look should iolen
con lic s pe sis in he egion. No ably, iolen con lic s no only
impede sus ainable de elopmen bu also exace ba e DR by escala ing
TABLE 6 Resul s o SSH q-s a is ics and ac o signi icance.
Regions Human haza d In as uc u e Ins i u ional Na u al haza d Socio-economic ulne abili y Vulne able g oups
Cen al 0.90 0.88** 0.38 0.70* 0.44 0.90*
Eas e n 0.83* 0.66** 0.30 0.02 0.68 0.88***
No he n 0.65 0.74 0.74 0.05 0.29 1***
Sou he n 0.28 0.28 0.05 0.53 0.53 0.77
Wes e n 0.92* 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.07 0.72
Con inen al 0.70*** 0.42*** 0.14 0.20 0.28 0.75***
No e: Signi icance o q: *** abo e 0.001 le el, ** a 0.01 le el, * a 0.05 le el.
TABLE 7 In e ac ion esul s o co e ac o s o disas e isk.
In e ac ing ac o s
Regions
Cen al Eas e n Sou he n Wes e n Con inen al
Human haza d In as uc u e 1 0.95 0.46 1 0.86
Human haza d Ins i u ional 1 1 0.46 0.96 0.80
Human haza d Na u al haza d 0.95 0.98
e-n
0.64 0.96 0.84
Human haza d Socio-economic ulne abili y 0.91 0.94 0.74 0.96 0.85
Human haza d Vulne able g oups 0.95 0.94 0.79 0.96 0.85
In as uc u e Ins i u ional 0.96 0.74 0.59
e-n
0.46 0.52
In as uc u e Na u al haza d 0.89 0.70 0.84 0.30 0.55
In as uc u e Socio-economic ulne abili y 0.95 0.73 0.61 0.36 0.50
In as uc u e Vulne able g oups 1 0.93 0.84 0.80 0.80
Ins i u ional Na u al haza d 0.75 0.49
e-n
0.84
e-n
0.41 0.35
Ins i u ional Socio-economic ulne abili y 0.79 0.76 0.61 0.70
e-n
0.54
e-n
Ins i u ional Vulne able g oups 0.94 0.98 0.84 1 0.82
Na u al haza d Socio-economic ulne abili y 0.91 0.73 0.84 0.31 0.45
Na u al haza d Vulne able g oups 0.91 0.93 1 0.78 0.82
Socio-economic ulne abili y Vulne able g oups 0.92 0.89 0.84 0.84 0.78
No e: The model e u ned no esul s o he compu a ion o ac o s' in e ac ion e ec s o No he n A ica. e-n = ac o s ha e an ‘enhance, non-linea ’
in e ac ion, all o he s a e bi-enhance in e ac ion.
EZE and SIEGMUND 4035
FIGURE 5 Map o A ican coun ies showing: (a) DR classes based on decadal mean analyses o INFORM isk index (b) op imized Ho spo s
analyses esul s (c) eme ging ho spo s o DRs.
4036 EZE and SIEGMUND
displacemen , ad e sely impac ing ulne able g oups, and in ensi ying
ood insecu i y, as illumina ed by Ande son e al. (2021).
Among he 11 key DR d i e s in A ica iden i ied in ou s udy,
only wo a e associa ed wi h haza ds, while he es pe ain o ulne -
abili y and lack o coping capaci y dimensions. This aligns wi h Bailey's
(2022) concep ualiza ion o disas e s as comp ising haza ds and he
social sys em. These dimensions encompass weaknesses capable o
exace ba ing social isks and a ec ing he wellbeing o coun ies, as
echoed by Sama awee a (2024) and Impe iale and Vanclay (2021).
Encou agingly, he in luence o na u al haza ds on DR in A ica seems
lowe , p o iding an oppo uni y o add essing con ollable social
d i e s emphasized by Ginige (2011).
Ou indings b idge a gap highligh ed by D akes and Ta e (2022),
add essing he sca ci y o la ge-scale esea ch in o social ulne abil-
i ies in lowe -income na ions. The iden i ied social ulne abili y d i e s
could guide in e en ions aimed a e e sing hese ends. Failu e o
mi iga e ulne abili y may lead o inc eased u u e disas e losses,
po en ially pe pe ua ing he po e y cycle, as sugges ed by Hallega e
e al. (2020) and Sal ucci and San os (2020). This emphasizes he
in e connec edness o po e y educ ion, equi able esou ce dis ibu-
ion, DRR, and sus ainable de elopmen ad oca ed by Naheed (2021),
as well as he impac o po e y on impeding de elopmen and he
success o SDGs, as emphasized by Akanle e al. (2022).
Fu he mo e, ou indings p o ide insigh s in o he long- e m
causes and consequences o ulne abili y, aligning wi h Kelman (2015)
asse ion ha such insigh s a e c ucial o de eloping di e se in e en-
ion s a egies o build esilience. In o ma ion-d i en policies, as
highligh ed by Chen e al. (2021), a e impe a i e o DRR and sus ain-
able de elopmen . Go e nance, iden i ied as a DR d i e , unde sco es
he necessi y o capaci y building o enhance he e ec i eness o
human esou ces (Acha ibasam & Da a, 2024), add essing conce ns
aised by Becke and an Nieke k (2015), Bang (2014,2022), abou he
de iciency o skilled DRR p ac i ione s in A ica, which leads o delay in
he ansla ion o policies in o ac ions.
Las ly, he iden i ied DR d i e s emphasize he need, as ad oca ed
by Impe iale and Vanclay (2016,2021), o delibe a e e o s o educe
ulne abili y while simul aneously inc easing esilience. Fo example,
add essing ulne abili y d i e s such as child heal h does no inhe en ly
p o ide heal hca e access, a coping capaci y d i e o DR, highligh ing
he impo ance o a mul i ace ed app oach. Howe e , i 's essen ial o
no e ha he coa se na ional-le el da a used in his s udy migh no
cap u e communi y-le el a ia ions in ulne abili ies and coping capaci-
ies. The e o e, communi y-le el s udies ac oss A ican s a es and
egions a e c ucial o ully op imize he po en ial o such s udies,
enabling he mos e ec i e DRR app oaches, as ad oca ed by Ja a i
e al. (2018) and Zhou e al. (2015), and he implemen a ion o obus
DRR go e nance, as highligh ed by Jiménez-Acei uno e al. (2020).
6|CONCLUSION
In examining DR ends, d i e s and ho spo s in A ica, ou s udy
un eiled a ious ou comes. The esul s om ou MK end es s
indica e an o e all dec ease in DR ac oss he con inen o e he s ud-
ied pe iod, albei wi h egional a ia ions. Speci ically, he pa e ns o
DR in Cen al and No he n A ica align wi h he con inen al end,
showing a decline. In con as , Eas e n, Wes e n, and Sou he n A ica
exhibi inc easing ends in DR du ing he same pe iod. No ably,
E i ea eme ged as a new ho spo . While Bu undi, Chad, Djibou i,
Nige , Rwanda, Somalia, and Uganda, exhibi ed consecu i e ho spo
ends; Cen al A ican Republic and Kenya in ensi ied in DR, and
E hiopia, Sou h Sudan, and Sudan emained pe sis en ho spo s.
These indings indica e he e ol ing na u e o DR and highligh spe-
ci ic coun ies ha equi e mo e ocus and ailo ed in e en ions.
Addi ionally, ou iden i ica ion o ulne abili y and lack o coping
capaci y dimensions as p edominan d i e s o DR co obo a es exis -
ing esea ch. Howe e , he in ica e in e play be ween human-
induced haza ds ela ed o iolen con lic s and all o he ulne abili y
and coping capaci y ac o s o m pa o ou p ima y con ibu ion o
unde s anding DR in A ica and wa an s he conside a ion o mul i-
ace ed DRR s a egies. Mo eo e , while ecognizing he commend-
able declining end in in as uc u al de iciencies, pe sis en
ulne abili ies and inadequa e ins i u ional coping capaci y emphasize
he impe a i e o sus ained policy in e en ions. Ta ge ed s a egies
should be ocused on simul aneously add essing hese pe sis ing ul-
ne abili ies and building esilience. S a egies such as po e y educ-
ion app oaches, e ec i e communi y-le el bo om-up DRR
go e nance and inc eased in es men s in capaci y building ini ia i es
a e pi o al o mi iga ing isks and achie ing sus ainable de elopmen .
Fu u e communi y-le el s udies o complemen ou na ional-le el
analyses a e equi ed o enable mo e ailo ed and e ec i e DRR s a -
egies. Mo eo e , indings such as he con lic ing ou comes o he
smoo hened plo s and he MK end es s can be easily a oided. Also,
con ex ual policy ac ions can be ounded on such communi y-le el
esea ch. Fu he mo e, DR assessmen s ough o be ongoing and
upda ed o ensu e e ol ing and ecen isk scena ios a e adequa ely
cap u ed. We, he e o e, p esen a compelling call o coo dina ed
e o s wi h local communi ies, policies, ac ions, and u he esea ch
o add ess he mul i ace ed na u e o DR in A ica o o i y esilience,
and educe ulne abili ies o achie e sus ainable de elopmen in he
con inen .
6.1 |Limi a ions o he s udy
The s udy's design was signi ican ly in luenced by he limi ed a ailabil-
i y o long- e m da a on DR dynamics in A ica. Despi e he p e e -
ence o designing communi y-le el DR assessmen s, he absence o
p io empi ical assessmen s a lowe scales cons ained he scope
o his s udy. Likewise, he sca ci y o local s udies on DR limi s he
alida ion o indings on lowe -le el scales. To add ess his, we
s ongly ad oca e o in-dep h case s udies on speci ic haza d-induced
disas e s ha p o ide deepe insigh s in o DR a local scales in A ica.
Such s udies could supplemen ou indings by o e ing con ex -
speci ic knowledge on social dimensions o isks and esilience, like
he insigh s p o ided by Impe iale and Vanclay (2016,2021),
EZE and SIEGMUND 4037
Sama awee a (2024), F ansen e al. (2024) and o he local esea ch
cap u ed in his wo k.
Fu he mo e, ou s udy u ilized he INFORM index da a, acknowl-
edging he p o ide s' iden i ica ion o me hodological and da a limi a-
ions (Ma in-Fe e e al., 2017). Me hodologically, he use o p oxies,
such as mala ia mo ali y a es o mala ia p e alence, migh limi he
ep esen a i eness o he indings. Addi ionally, incomple e da a, eli-
ance on sel -measu ed Hyogo sel -assessmen epo s om coun ies,
and he s a ic na u e o na u al haza d da a necessi a e cau ion in
in e p e ing he esul s. I 's c ucial o ecognize hese limi a ions and
hei po en ial impac on he s udy's conclusions. Mo eo e , ou s udy
excludes he ecen haza dous e en s in A ica wi hin 2023, which
emphasizes he necessi y o ongoing and upda ed DR assessmen s o
cap u e he e e -e ol ing landscape o DR in he con inen . Also,
while ou smoo hened end plo s o e insigh s in o DR ends, con-
as ing ou comes yielded by he MK esul s wa an ca e ul in e p e-
a ion. The di e gence in esul s signi ies he complexi y o end
analyses and unde sco es he need o cau ious in e p e a ion o he
s udy's indings. Despi e hese limi a ions, ou s udy o e s a dis inc-
i e pano amic iew o DR ends, in luen ial ac o s, and ho spo s
ac oss A ica. By unco e ing hese insigh s, ou esea ch p esen s
ac ionable oppo uni ies o DRR s a egies and sus ainable de elop-
men ini ia i es.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Au ho Emmanuel Eze ex ends hea el app ecia ion o he Ge man
Academic Exchange Se ice (DAAD) o hei gene ous schola ship s i-
pends suppo ing his doc o al esea ch discussed in his pape .
Emmanuel Eze also acknowledges con e sa ions wi h Chinazaekpe e
Peace, which p o ed ins umen al in honing his ideas. Addi ionally,
open-access publica ion has been made possible h ough he Uni e -
si y o Heidelbe g P ojec Deal Ag eemen . Open Access unding
enabled and o ganized by P ojek DEAL.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT
The au ho s decla e ha hey ha e no known compe ing inancial
in e es s o pe sonal ela ionships ha could ha e appea ed o in lu-
ence he wo k epo ed in his pape .
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The da ase s analyzed du ing his s udy a e eely accessible a
h ps://d mkc.j c.ec.eu opa.eu/in o m-index/.
ORCID
Emmanuel Eze h ps://o cid.o g/0000-0003-2007-2696
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