Widyas u ik, Widyas u ik; Meliany, Bi ka Sep y; Amaliah, Sya i ah; Ho sawadi; Ri in,
Amzul
A icle
Linking global CGE models and sec o al analysis o e alua e he impac
o ade openness in se ice sec o owa ds Indonesia ag icul u al and
ag oindus y
Economies
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
MDPI – Mul idisciplina y Digi al Publishing Ins i u e, Basel
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Widyas u ik, Widyas u ik; Meliany, Bi ka Sep y; Amaliah, Sya i ah; Ho sawadi;
Ri in, Amzul (2025) : Linking global CGE models and sec o al analysis o e alua e he impac o
ade openness in se ice sec o owa ds Indonesia ag icul u al and ag oindus y, Economies, ISSN
2227-7099, MDPI, Basel, Vol. 13, Iss. 7, pp. 1-18,
h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13070199
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Ci a ion: Widyas u ik, Meliany, B. S.,
Amaliah, S., Ho sawadi, & Ri in, A.
(2025). Linking Global CGE Models
and Sec o al Analysis o E alua e he
Impac o T ade Openness in Se ice
Sec o Towa ds Indonesia Ag icul u al
and Ag oindus y. Economies,13(7),
199. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/
economies13070199
Copy igh : © 2025 by he au ho s.
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licenses/by/4.0/).
A icle
Linking Global CGE Models and Sec o al Analysis o E alua e
he Impac o T ade Openness in Se ice Sec o Towa ds
Indonesia Ag icul u al and Ag oindus y
Widyas u ik 1,2,* , Bi ka Sep y Meliany 3, Sya i ah Amaliah 1, Ho sawadi 4and Amzul Ri in 5
1Depa men o Economics, Facul y o Economic and Managemen , IPB Uni e si y, Bogo 16680, Indonesia;
[email p o ec ed]
2In e na ional Cen e o Applied Finance and Economics, IRISERDS, IPB Uni e si y, Bogo 16680, Indonesia
3P og am S udy o Ag icul u al Economics, IPB Uni e si y, Bogo 16680, Indonesia; [email p o ec ed]
4Depa men o De elopmen Economics, Mulawa man Uni e si y, Sama inda 75119, Indonesia;
[email p o ec ed]
5
Depa men o Ag ibusiness, Facul y o Economic and Managemen , IPB Uni e si y, Bogo 16680, Indonesia;
[email p o ec ed]
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac
Ag icul u e is he p ima y sec o sus aining he Indonesian economy. Howe e , app op ia e
policies a e also equi ed o suppo he se ice sec o . The e o e, his s udy aims o
analyze wo cen al policies: he impac o ade openness and he ole o he se ice
sec o on ag icul u e and ag o-indus y in Indonesia. A Compu able Gene al Equilib ium
(CGE) model wi h 2016 inpu –ou pu ables co e 141 egions and 65 sec o s based on he
Global T ade Analysis P ojec (GTAP) Ve sion 10 da abase. The esul s show ha ade
openness in he se ices sec o signi ican ly imp o es he pe o mance and quali y o
se ice p o ision. The imp o ed pe o mance o he se ices sec o will, in u n, encou age
inc eased p oduc ion in he ag icul u al and ag o-indus ial sec o s, which ely hea ily on
se ice inpu s in he p oduc ion p ocess. This sugges s ha ade openness in he se ices
sec o is impo an o sus ain he pe o mance o he ag icul u al sec o .
Keywo ds: ade on se ices; compu able gene al equilib ium (CGE) model; in e na ional
ade; ag icul u al and ag oindus y
1. In oduc ion
The ag icul u al sec o is an impo an pilla in he Indonesian economy, no only as he
p ima y sou ce o employmen o a la ge p opo ion o he popula ion bu also as a d i e
o imp o ed social wel a e (Sayi ullah & Emmalian,2018;Si ega e al.,2024). Despi e
ongoing indus ializa ion, Indonesia is s ill classi ied as an ag a ian coun y, indica ing
ha i s o e all de elopmen depends hea ily on ag icul u e (Kusumaning um,2019). Fo
Indonesia, which has a la ge popula ion, he ag icul u al sec o has a s a egic and di e se
ole in ensu ing na ional ood secu i y and nu i ion (Mukhlis & Gu cam,2022) while
con ibu ing o po e y alle ia ion (Sulis yowa i & Yuliyadi,2019). The e o e, ag icul u e
is an insepa able componen o economic s abili y, g ow h, and de elopmen .
The ag icul u al sec o plays a s a egic ole in he Indonesian economy, no only
as a majo con ibu o o he G oss Domes ic P oduc (GDP) bu also as a p o ide o
employmen and a pilla o na ional ood secu i y. By 2023, he ag icul u al sec o will
con ibu e a ound 13.7% o he o al na ional GDP while abso bing a ound 30% o he o al
Economies 2025,13, 199 h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13070199
Economies 2025,13, 199 2 o 18
Indonesian wo k o ce (S a is ics Indonesia,2025). This signi icance is u he ein o ced
by he la es da a in he i s qua e o 2025, whe e he ag icul u al sec o ’s con ibu ion
o GDP by he business sec o was eco ded a 10.52%, he highes igu e in he his o y
o na ional s a is ics (S a is ics Indonesia,2025). This inc ease e lec s he e ec i eness
o policies ha suppo domes ic p oduc ion while a i ming he ole o ag icul u e as
he sec o wi h he highes labo abso p ion a e, a 28.54% o he na ional labo o ce.
These indings sugges ha he ag icul u al sec o emains an impo an ounda ion o
Indonesia’s economic and social s abili y.
Acco ding o he Minis y o Ag icul u e (2022), he ag icul u al sec o has compa a-
i e and compe i i e ad an ages in p oducing high- alue commodi ies in high demand in
in e na ional ma ke s and as aw ma e ials o domes ic indus ies. In in e na ional ade,
Indonesia’s ag icul u al expo s ha e a signi ican global pe o mance, especially in plan a-
ion commodi ies (e.g., palm oil, cocoa, co ee, ea, e c.). In 2022, Indonesia’s ag icul u al
expo s eached USD 51,842.11 million, an inc ease o 5.39% compa ed o he p e ious yea
(UN Com ade,2024). In he same yea , Indonesia expo ed USD 9801.76 million wo h o
ag icul u al p oduc s o China, making i he op expo des ina ion wi h a sha e o 18.91%,
ollowed by India (11.35%) and he Uni ed S a es (11.33%) (UN Com ade,2024). This
unde sco es he s a egic ole o ag icul u e in he Indonesian economy, which mus be
aligned wi h na ional de elopmen p io i ies. One o he eigh main missions o Nawaci a
ocuses on ad ancing downs eam indus ies and indus ializa ion o d i e domes ic alue-
added c ea ion (Bappenas,2024). The ag icul u al sec o needs o boos p oduc ion and
p oduc i i y o ul ill he ood supply and supply aw ma e ials o indus y. Inc easing he
p oduc ion and p oduc i i y o he ag icul u al sec o canno be sepa a ed om he ole
o he se ice sec o . Se ici ica ion has eme ged as a key s a egy o imp o e ag icul u al
p oduc i i y and global compe i i eness (Widodo,2020).
The se ices sec o can unc ion as a di ec le e h ough i s con ibu ion o na ional
ou pu o as an indi ec ca alys h ough second-o de p oduc i i y e ec s in he ag icul u al
sec o (Khanna,2016). Due o he in e -sec o al causali y e ec , he ag icul u al sec o can
be op imized by le e aging he se ices sec o (Tekilu e al.,2018;Degu,2019). P ase yo
e al. (2023) highligh ed coun ies such as Japan, he Uni ed S a es, and Aus alia, calling
o inc eased se ice p o ision in logis ics, ce i ica ion, and echnical suppo o ul ill
coun y-speci ic ma ke egula ions. The se ices sec o no only acili a es mo e e icien
ade ela ions such as anspo se ices (sea, ai , and land), logis ics and supply chain,
dis ibu ion se ices, inancial se ices, and elecommunica ion se ices bu also ensu es
ha Indonesian p oduc s can compe e in highly egula ed ma ke s, which will ul ima ely
bene i expo e s and consume s. Resea ch and De elopmen (R&D) se ices ha p o ide
se ices o ce i ica ion o ag icul u al p oduc s ha e an impo an ole o play.
Se e al p e ious s udies sugges ha global ce i ica ion equi emen s o sus ain-
abili y, sani a y and phy osani a y (SPS) equi emen s, and Technical Ba ie s o T ade
(TBT), including packaging and labeling o ag icul u al p oduc s, a e signi ican ba ie s o
ag icul u al p oduce s, inc easing ade cos s (Maki a,2016;Lee e al.,2020;Y. Chen e al.,
2024). The use o digi al echnologies gene a ed by he R&D se ices sec o d i es e iciency
and p oduc i i y in he ag icul u al sec o , such as using soil and wea he senso s. Soil
and wea he senso s allow a me s and ag icul u al p ac i ione s o moni o and collec
eal- ime da a on en i onmen al condi ions a he a ming si e. The da a ob ained om
hese senso s can p o ide deep insigh s in o soil mois u e le els, pH, nu ien s, ai empe a-
u e, ai humidi y, ain all, and wind speed. Wi h his accu a e and con inuous moni o ing,
a me s can make mo e in elligen and imely decisions in c op g ow h managemen . Gi en
he ole o he se ice sec o in imp o ing he pe o mance o he ag icul u al sec o , he
a ailabili y o se ice sec o se ices a compe i i e p ices is essen ial.
Economies 2025,13, 199 3 o 18
Re e ing o he e m se ici ica ion by Elms and Low (2013), ‘The la ge p opo ion
o se ices inpu s used in manu ac u ing p oduc ion is desc ibed as ‘se ici ica ion o
manu ac u ing,’ se ici ica ion in his s udy will be used in he con ex o se ices used
as inpu s o he ag icul u al and ag oindus y sec o . The inc easing ole o se ices in
he ag icul u al sec o is insepa able om he a ailabili y o se ices a compe i i e p ices.
Based on he la es Inpu –ou pu Indonesia, mos se ice sec o s ha e limi ed a ailabili y
(excess demand), such as elecommunica ion se ices, compu e and in o ma ion consul -
ing se ices, inancial and bank se ices, insu ance se ices, o he inancial ins i u ion
se ices, scien i ic and echnical p o essional se ices, en al and business suppo se ices.
One s a egy o imp o e se ices is o inc ease he deg ee o openness o o eign se ice
p o ide s. Based on he OECD (2022), he deg ee o openness o Indonesia’s se ice sec o
is e y es ic i e compa ed o neighbo ing coun ies. The a e age es ic ion o Indonesia’s
se ice sec o is 0.40, Thailand 0.38, Malaysia and Vie nam 0.31. Indonesia’s se ice sec o
ade es ic ion index is highe han he ASEAN-5 g oup a e age o 0.323.
Meanwhile, his condi ion is e y i onic conside ing ha Indonesia has 20 ade
coope a ion ag eemen s in he se ices sec o , including he WTO, ASEAN,
ASEAN + 1
,
Japan, Chile ( a i ica ion p ocess), EFTA, AANZFTA, RCEP, Ko ea, and UAE. A he same
ime, hose in he nego ia ion p ocess a e 10 (ASEAN India FTA, Eu opean Union, ASEAN
Canada FTA, ASEAN China FTA, Eu asian Economic Union (EAEU), Tu kiye, Canada,
Me cosu , Pe u, GCC) and 1 in he explo a ion p ocess, namely ASEAN-EU. Indonesia’s
a ious ade pa ne ships in he se ices sec o can be u ilized o inc ease he a ailabili y o
Indonesia’s se ices sec o , which expe iences excess demand. The u iliza ion o Indonesia’s
se ice sec o ade openness is p edic ed o inc ease he p oduc ion and p oduc i i y o
he se ice sec o , which will impac he ag icul u al sec o . So a , p e ious s udies
ha e ocused mo e on he impac o se ice sec o openness on inc easing se ice sec o
p oduc i i y (Fu e al.,2023), economic g ow h (Ma o e al.,2007;Papaioannou,2018)
and he manu ac u ing sec o (se ici ica ion) (Peng e al.,2022;Taguchi & La ,2024;
De e e e al.,2022;Hing & Thanga elu,2023). In he case o Indonesia, esea ch on he
impac o se ice sec o openness on he manu ac u ing sec o (Hing & Thanga elu,2023).
Thanga elu e al. (2018), using a g a i y model, ound ha libe aliza ion o Indonesia’s
se ices sec o would educe ade cos s by 26% (pe cen age o impo alue). The no el y
o his s udy is ha i s , i assesses he impac o se ices ade openness on Indonesia’s
ag icul u al sec o and mac oeconomy.
Shepe d and Ma el (2010) highligh he di icul y o quan i ying he impac o poli-
cies on ade in se ices due o he a i y o anspa en ad alo em measu es, such as
a i s. They used he ade cos app oach o calcula e he es ic ion index in he se ices
sec o , e lec ing he signi ican egula o y ba ie s p esen . Widyas u ik (2016) analyzed
Indonesia’s ma i ime anspo se ices, ocusing on egula o y challenges and in as uc-
u e bo lenecks. Widyas u ik (2020) applied his me hodology o ai anspo se ices,
iden i ying key ba ie s like ai se ice ag eemen s and ai a ic egula ions, and o e ing
ecommenda ions o imp o e Indonesia’s global compe i i eness. This s udy measu es
ade openness by educing ba ie s using he OECD STRI Simula o , a ool also used
by Aboushady (2022) and Khacha u ian and Rike (2017) o assess non- a i ba ie s in
se ices. Addi ionally, i in oduces a gene al equilib ium model by linking he Global
T ade Analysis P ojec (GTAP) model wi h he Compu able Gene al Equilib ium (CGE)
model, p o iding a mo e comp ehensi e analysis han p e ious pa ial equilib ium models
and allowing a de ailed e alua ion o how ade libe aliza ion and se ici ica ion impac
Indonesia’s economy.
Using a gene al equilib ium model aligns wi h he idea ha he in e ac ion be ween
economic ac o s is complex and challenging o unde s and wi h a pa ial equilib ium
Economies 2025,13, 199 4 o 18
model, so using CGE is conside ed mo e app op ia e. This gene al equilib ium app oach
can analyze he ma ke and in e ac wi h each o he , in ol ing mac oeconomic a iables
and sec o s ha mus be analyzed oge he . The CGE model includes he possibili y o
subs i u ion be ween ac o s o p oduc ion. Thus, i he e is a change in he ela i e p ice
o a ac o o p oduc ion, p oduce s will change he composi ion o he use o ac o s o
p oduc ion owa ds ac o s o p oduc ion ha a e ela i ely cheape . The GTAP model
includes global anspo and in es men mobili y o explain he impac o policies be ween
coun ies. The impac o ade openness cap u ed in he GTAP model will a ec he ela i e
p ice o expo s and impo s. The change in he ela i e p ice o expo s and impo s will
be used as a a iable o shock in he CGE model.
2. Me hodology
2.1. Da a
This s udy applies he linking model be ween GTAP and CGE o measu e he impac s
o libe aliza ion and he inc easing ole o se ici ica ion on he ag icul u al sec o in
Indonesia. The GTAP model e sion 10 used in his s udy consis s o 141 egions and
65 sec o s (Licensed o he Depa men o Economics, FEM IPB, Mul iple Academic Use
License No. 9.0-2043). The da a in GTAP e sion 10 a e de i ed om inpu –ou pu ables
wi h e e ence yea s 2004, 2007, 2011, and 2014. Meanwhile, he CGE model in his s udy
uses he 2016 inpu –ou pu able published by S a is ics Indonesia in 2020, which includes
185 sec o s. Fo egional agg ega ion, his s udy will use da a agg ega ing Indonesia and
pa ne coun ies in ol ed in he se ices ade coope a ion, including coun ies in he
Aus alia-Indonesia Comp ehensi e Economic Pa ne ship Ag eemen (IA-CEPA) and he
Regional Comp ehensi e Economic Pa ne ship (RCEP). These coun ies a e (1) Japan,
(2) Sou h Ko ea, (3) New Zealand, (4) he People’s Republic o China, (5) Malaysia, and
(6) Thailand.
This s udy analyzes he libe aliza ion and he impac o he inc eased ole o se ices
in he ag icul u al sec o , which is expec ed o be achie ed h ough diplomacy and se ices
ade nego ia ions. One o he p ima y da a sou ces used is he Se ices T ade Res ic-
i eness Index (STRI). The STRI is a measu e ha e e s o disc imina o y policies and
egula ions in he se ices ade. Quan i a i e es ic ions e e o limi a ions on he numbe
o p o ide s, pa icula ly hose ela ed o minimum equi emen s in licensing p ocesses
o p o essionals, as well as he absence o egula ion in line wi h equi able access o do-
mes ic and o eign se ices sec o s. These egula ions may be applied o speci ic sec o s
o he en i e sec o , such as policies on he minimum pe cen age o domes ic wo ke s in
o eign-owned companies. The le el o es ic ion a ies signi ican ly be ween de eloped
and de eloping coun ies. STRI simula ions allow policymake s and expe s o explo e he
impac s o changes in ade policy on he se ices sec o in de ail o each ac ion and o
compa e a speci ic coun y wi h selec ed o he coun ies in pa icula sec o s.
The Na ional CGE Model will be employed o cap u e mo e speci ic impac s on a ious
sec o s o he Indonesian economy. The Na ional CGE model used in his s udy is based on
he ORANI-F model (Ho idge,2003) and INDOF (Ok a iani,2000). The inpu –ou pu (IO)
able u ilized in he na ional CGE model is Indonesia’s 2016 IO able. The esul s o ade
openness simula ions om he GTAP model, which yield changes in expo and impo
p ices, will se e as inpu s o simula ions in he Na ional CGE model (linking he GTAP
model wi h he Na ional CGE model).
2.2. Resea ch Me hods
To analyze he impac o libe aliza ion and he inc easing ole o se ices (se ici ica-
ion) on he ag icul u al sec o in Indonesia, he Gene al Equilib ium model o he Global
Economies 2025,13, 199 5 o 18
T ade Analysis P ojec (GTAP) is employed. The Global T ade Analysis P ojec (GTAP) is a
mul i-coun y and mul i-sec o compu able gene al equilib ium (CGE) model used o e al-
ua e he impac o ade policy changes (He el & Tsigas,1997). He el (2012) asse s ha
he gene al equilib ium model in eg a es mic oeconomic and mac oeconomic ac o s. The
s uc u al Compu able Gene al Equilib ium (CGE) model is buil upon he ounda ions o
economic heo y (mic oeconomics), whe e he beha io o economic agen s is speci ied and
de ailed in he o m o beha io al equa ions. The CGE model also acili a es he depic ion
o in e ac ions be ween agen s wi hin a coun y/ egion and be ween coun ies/ egions,
allowing o a comp ehensi e analysis o he economic impac s ac oss sec o s and egions.
The Global T ade Analysis P ojec (GTAP) model p o ides a obus mul i- egional,
mul i-sec o al CGE amewo k o assessing he economic consequences o ade policy
changes, especially wi hin he ag icul u al sec o (He el & Tsigas,1997). Each GTAP
“ egion” ep esen s a na ional economy comp ising a nes ed p oduc ion s uc u e, a single
ep esen a i e household, go e nmen , and in es men beha io . P oduc ion s uc u es
ely on p ima y ac o s (land, labo , capi al, and na u al esou ces) and ollow mul i-
s age p ocesses.
T ade linkages ac oss egions a e o malized o goods and se ices, including c oss-
bo de inancial in e media ion and associa ed global anspo demands. The model
assumes cons an elas ici y o subs i u ion (CES) in agg ega ing p ima y ac o s, which a e
combined wi h in e media e goods using a ixed-coe icien Leon ie s uc u e. While subs i-
u ion is es ic ed among in e media e goods and be ween in e media es and alue-added,
he model pe mi s di e en ia ion be ween domes ic and o eign sou ces o in e media es
based on he A ming on assump ion o impe ec subs i u abili y (A ming on,1969).
In a- egional mobili y is allowed o capi al and labo , acili a ing ealloca ion ac oss
sec o s, whe eas in e - egional mobili y is cons ained in he sho un. Employmen le els
a e held cons an wi hin egions, and labo ma ke equilib ium is main ained ia wage a e
adjus men s. Meanwhile, inal demand alloca ion is go e ned by a egional ep esen a i e
who dis ibu es income om ac o ea nings and ne axes ac oss p i a e consump ion,
sa ings, and public expendi u e. The model uses a Cobb–Douglas speci ica ion o go -
e nmen demand and a cons an di e ence in elas ici y (CDE) unc ional o m o p i a e
household p e e ences. While physical capi al does no mo e in e na ionally in he sho
un, long- e m in e - egional in es men lows a e possible h ough sa ings ealloca ions,
enabling global capi al ma ke in eg a ion o e ime.
In he GTAP model, he A ming on elas ici y cap u es how easily consume s o
p oduce s subs i u e domes ic goods o impo ed (o in e -o igin) goods when ela i e
p ices change. One o he GTAP model’s assump ions is ha impo ed and domes ic
goods a e no pe ec subs i u es (di e en e en i hey a e o he same ype, e.g., local s.
impo ed ice). Consume s/economic ac o s di e en ia e goods based on hei coun y o
o igin. The e o e, he A ming on elas ici y can be used o measu e sensi i i y, speci ically
he sensi i i y o demand o changes in he ela i e p ice be ween domes ic and impo ed
goods. In de ail, A ming on elas ici y se es o (a) measu e how esponsi e impo demand
is o changes in ela i e p ices, (b) de e mine he magni ude o changes in consump ion
pa e ns o p oduc ion inpu s due o changes in a i s, subsidies, o ade ba ie s. (3) In
simula ions, he highe he A ming on elas ici y alue, he mo e sensi i e consume s a e o
p ices, meaning ha hey a e mo e likely o swi ch o impo ed goods i domes ic p ices
ise. A p e ious s udy employing he ag icul u al sec o o he GTAP was conduc ed by
Ri in e al. (2020) and CGE abou impac o biodiesel policy was conduc ed by Saha a e al.
(2022). On he o he hand, Nug oho e al. (2021) using GTAP Recu si e Dynamic and he
Indonesia amily li e su ey (IFLS) accessing impac ade wa on po e y in Indonesia
pe iode 2018–2020.
Economies 2025,13, 199 6 o 18
In his s udy, he po en ial impac o ade libe aliza ion and he inc eased ole o he
se ices sec o in ag icul u e se ici ica ion will be analyzed ia a s eps app oach, co e ing
(i) es ima ing he magni ude o se ices ade ba ie educ ions and (ii) linking o he
GTAP model and na ional CGE model. A p e ious s udy employing he linking o he
GTAP and CGE models was conduc ed by Zhang and Diao (2020) o measu e and analyze
he impac s o economic s uc u al changes on he ag icul u al sec o . Simila ly, Delzei
e al. (2020) used he linking model o analyze and measu e economic policies, pa icula ly
in add essing complex global issues a ec ing economic g ow h. Based on p io s udies,
he linking model be ween CGE and sec o al models can cap u e he complex in e ac ions
be ween sec o s and coun ies, o e ing mo e de ailed insigh s in o he analysis o speci ic
sec o s. The e o e, applying he linking model be ween GTAP and CGE is highly ele an
in his s udy o measu e and iden i y he impac s o ade libe aliza ion and he inc easing
ole o se ici ica ion on Indonesia’s ag icul u al sec o .
Accu a ely measu ing he es ic i eness o non- a i measu es (NTMs) in se ice
sec o s emains a signi ican me hodological challenge, p ima ily due o he lack o comp e-
hensi e and eliable da a on bila e al se ices ade low and egula o y measu es. While
mos o he s udies es ima ing ad alo em equi alen s (AVEs) o egula o y ade ba i-
e s used a quan i y-based app oach wi h augmen ed g a i y models, his s udy adop ed
Fon agne e al. (2016) and Benz and Jaax (2022) by u ilizing OECD Se ices T ade Res ic-
i eness Index (STRI) da a. Fu he imp o emen s a e made o cap u e he exis ing schedule
o commi men s o Indonesia and i s CEPA pa ne s. The e o e, he ade libe aliza ion
scena io in his s udy is e lec ed by educing ade ba ie s based on a speci ic schedule o
commi men s (SoC) using he OECD STRI Simula o . Se e al esea che s ha e u ilized he
STRI simula o app oach o measu e ade ba ie s in he se ices sec o , including s udies
conduc ed by Aboushady (2022) and Khacha u ian and Rike (2017). In his con ex , he
OECD STRI simula o add esses he challenges o quan i ying egula o y measu es in he
se ices ade. This s udy phase will assess Indonesia’s le el o commi men in a ious
ade nego ia ion o a, explici ly e e ing o he RCEP and IACEPA scena ios. The unde ly-
ing a ionale o he CEPA selec ion is ha RCEP and IACEPA modali ies a e conside ed he
mos p og essi e ega ding libe aliza ion commi men s. Th ough his analysis, he s udy
aims o gauge Indonesia’s p og ess and engagemen in libe alizing se ices ade unde
hese ag eemen s.
To measu e he impac o se ices ade libe aliza ion on he inc eased ole o se ices
in he ag icul u al se ices sec o , he nex s ep is o es ima e he magni ude o he shock,
which is he change in he alue o Indonesia’s se ices ade, bo h expo s and impo s.
The model speci ica ion used is
ln(SI)i =α+β1STRIi +∑
k
γkGi k +ε(1)
This equa ion indica es ha se ices impo s a e in luenced by egula ions ep esen ed
by he STRI and o he indica o s as de e minan s o ade, which a e ep esen ed as con ol
a iables. The ade de e minan s in his model a e based on g a i y model indica o s
such as he size o he economy, popula ion, and o he indica o s like exchange a es. The
subsc ip i ep esen s he se ices ade sec o , he subsc ip ep esen s coun ies, and k is
he index o ade de e minan s. The coe icien on he STRI is in e p e ed as he elas ici y
o ade. In o he wo ds, i ep esen s he pe cen age change in ade alue due o changes
in ade ba ie s as ep esen ed by he STRI (binding o e hang). The magni ude o he
changes in Indonesia’s se ices impo s and expo s will be used as shocks in he na ional
CGE model.
Economies 2025,13, 199 7 o 18
A linking model be ween GTAP and CGE will be employed o analyze he po en ial
impac s o ade libe aliza ion and he inc easing ole o se ices in ag icul u e. In he
global compu able gene al equilib ium (CGE) amewo k, ade libe aliza ion is modeled
by implemen ing se ice ba ie educ ions in espec i e coun ies. This exe cise yields a
coun e ac ual global equilib ium e lec ed by changing wo ld p ices and adjus ed se ice
ba ie s uc u es in Indonesia and pa ne coun ies. The changes in wo ld p ices a e
hen ea ed as exogenous shocks wi hin he na ional CGE model. Using a “small coun y”
assump ion, p oduce s and consume s will adjus o changes in impo and expo p ices.
Impo demand will inc ease as he impo p ices become mo e compe i i e and expo
supply con ac s due o ising expo p ices, and ice e sa. This app oach o linking
global and na ional models o analyze ade libe aliza ion e ec s is also es ablished in he
li e a u e, wi h applica ions by Hu e al. (1995) and Ok a iani (2000).
The educ ion in ade ba ie s ep esen s ade libe aliza ion. The ool used o cal-
cula e he educ ion in ade ba ie s is he OECD STRI Simula o . Using he OECD STRI
Simula o helps add ess he challenge o measu ing a i le els in se ices ade. A his
s age, he ex en o Indonesia’s commi men o a ious se ices ade nego ia ion o ums
( e e ing o RCEP and IACEPA scena ios) will be assessed by educing se ices ade ba i-
e s. This s udy will apply h ee scena ios o analyze ade openness and he se ici ica ion
o he se ices sec o wi hin Indonesia’s ag icul u al sec o . The simula ion scena ios a e
as ollows:
1. Simula ion 1: Indonesia’s ade openness in se ices.
2.
Simula ion 2: A combina ion o ade openness in se ices and inc eased p oduc i i y
wi hin he se ices sec o .
3.
Simula ion 3: A combina ion o ade openness in se ices, inc eased p oduc i i y in
he se ices sec o , and enhanced se ices sec o in ol emen in ag icul u e.
3. Resul s
3.1. The Impac o T ade Openness and Inc eased Role o Se i ica ion Towa ds
Mac oeconomic Indica o s
The impac o ade openness and he ole o se ices on he ag icul u al sec o is
ela ed o he ansmission shown h ough di ec and indi ec se ice sec o linkages and
o wa d and backwa d linkages wi h he ag icul u al and ag oindus y sec o s. The open-
ness a iable and he inc easing ole o se ices u he a ec he ou pu sec o (ag icul u e
and ag oindus y). Fu he , i a ec s mac oeconomic a iables such as G oss Domes ic
P oduc (GDP), Consump ion, In es men , Expo , In la ion, and Balance o T ade/GDP.
Based on he la es inpu –ou pu (IO) da a published by BPS in 2016, he ollowing is an
o e iew o he di ec and indi ec o wa d and backwa d linkages o he se ices sec o o
he ag icul u al sec o (six g oups, namely ood c ops, ho icul u e, plan a ions, o es y,
ishe ies, and li es ock) and ag oindus y (namely he ag oindus y o li es ock, ho icul-
u e, ood c ops, plan a ions, o es y, animal and ege able oils, and o he ag oindus ies).
Backwa d Di ec and Indi ec Linkages (KLTLB) show how an inc ease in inal demand
in he se ices sec o will a ec i s ups eam sec o s, especially hose in he ag icul u e
sec o . Based on i s agg ega e alue, ood and be e age se ices ha e he mos conside able
KLTB alue in he ag icul u al sec o . The KLTB alue is 0.3171, which means ha i he e
is an inc ease in inal demand o Rp 1,000,000 in he ood and be e age se ices sec o , he
se ice sec o equi es addi ional inpu s om he ag icul u al sec o o Rp 317,100. The
o al alue o inpu equi emen s is Rp 92,400 om he ood c op sec o , Rp 51,900 om
he ho icul u e sec o , Rp 38,900 om he plan a ion sec o , Rp 62,500 om he li es ock
sec o , Rp 900 om he o es y sec o , and Rp 70,300 om he ishe ies sec o . The sec o s
Economies 2025,13, 199 8 o 18
wi h he la ges KTLB in ag icul u e a e sea anspo , ag icul u e, o es y, aquacul u e, ai ,
i e , lake, and e y.
Based on i s agg ega e alue, ood and be e age se ices again ha e he mos consid-
e able KLTB alue in he ag icul u al sec o . The KLTB alue is 0.2554, which means ha i
he e is an inc ease in inal demand o Rp 1,000,000 in he ood and be e age se ices sec o ,
he se ice sec o equi es addi ional inpu s om he ag icul u al indus y sec o o Rp
255,400. The o al alue o inpu equi emen s is Rp 52,300 om he li es ock ag oindus y
sec o , Rp 7600 om he ho icul u e ag oindus y sec o , Rp 98,400 om he c op ag oin-
dus y sec o , Rp 26,500 om he plan a ion ag oindus y sec o , Rp 6200 om he o es y
ag oindus y sec o , Rp 44,000 om he animal and ege able oil ag oindus y sec o , and
Rp 20,400 om o he ag oindus y sec o s. The sec o s wi h he la ges KTLB in ag icul u e
a e i e , lake, and e y anspo se ices; p o essional, scien i ic, and echnical se ices;
ag icul u e, o es y, and ishe ies se ices; and sea anspo se ices and compu e and
in o ma ion echnology consul ing se ices.
Di ec and Indi ec Linkages Fo wa d (KLTD) shows how an inc ease in inal demand
in he se ices sec o will a ec i s downs eam sec o s, in his case, he ag icul u al sec o
sec o s. Based on i s agg ega e alue, ade se ices o he han ca s and mo o cycles ha e
he mos conside able KLTD alue in he ag icul u al sec o . O he han ca s and mo o -
cycles, he ade se ices sec o is he p ima y con ibu o because he se ice p oduc s
inco po a ed include wholesale and e ail ade se ices o ag icul u al aw ma e ials, li e
animals, p ocessed ag icul u al p oduc s, and ood and be e age p oduc s. In e ms o
ma ke ing and selling ood c op p oduc s, business ac o s in he ood c op sec o will need
ade se ices. The KLTD alue o he ade sec o o he han ca s and mo o bikes is 1.0130.
The e o e, i he e is an inc ease in inal demand o Rp 1,000,000 in his se ice sec o , he
o al inc ease in ou pu om his sec o alloca ed as inpu o he ag icul u al sec o is Rp
1,013,000. To al inc ease in ou pu alue will be alloca ed Rp 192,800 o he ood c op sec o ,
Rp 152,500 o he ho icul u e sec o , Rp 307,200 o he plan a ion sec o , Rp 251,900 o he
li es ock sec o , Rp 26,600 o he o es y sec o , and Rp 82,100 o he li es ock sec o . The
sec o s wi h he la ges KLTLD in he ag icul u e sec o a e he banking inancial se ices
sec o , he ag icul u e, o es y, and ishe ies se ices sec o , he en al and business suppo
se ices sec o , and he land anspo se ices sec o o he han ail anspo . The ail
anspo se ices sec o has he lowes KLTD.
Based on i s agg ega e alue, ade se ices o he han ca s and mo o cycles also ha e
he mos conside able KLTD alue in he ag icul u al sec o . The KLTD alue is 3.5851,
whe e i he e is an inc ease in inal demand o Rp 1,000,000 in he se ice sec o , he
inc ease in ou pu o he ade se ices sec o o he han ca s and mo o cycles alloca ed
as inpu o he ag icul u al indus y sec o is Rp 3,585,100. The inc ease in ou pu will be
alloca ed by IDR 429,200 o he li es ock ag oindus y sec o , IDR 116,500 o he ho icul u e
ag oindus y sec o , IDR 139,700 o he ood c op ag oindus y sec o , IDR 1,169,900 o he
plan a ion ag oindus y sec o , IDR 713,700 o he o es y ag oindus y sec o , IDR 26,800
o he animal and ege able oil ag oindus y sec o , and IDR 989,400 o o he ag oindus y
sec o s. The sec o s wi h he la ges KTLD in he ag icul u e sec o a e he banking inancial
se ices sec o , he land anspo se ices sec o o he han ail anspo , he en al and
business suppo se ices sec o , and he elecommunica ion se ices sec o . Meanwhile,
he ail anspo se ice sec o has he lowes KLTD alue.
Inc eased ade openness is expec ed o inc ease he a ailabili y o se ices, imp o ing
se ices in sec o s ha use se ices as inpu s, such as ag icul u e and ag oindus y, as well
as inal demand. This s udy assesses ade openness as an implica ion o Indonesia’s ade
coope a ion in se ices. Fo his eason, a simula ion o educing ade ba ie s in se ices is
ca ied ou unde business-as-usual condi ions. Simula ing he educ ion in ade ba ie s is
Economies 2025,13, 199 15 o 18
ag o-indus y sec o s, which ely hea ily on se ices inpu s du ing hei p oduc ion p o-
cess. Se e al se ices subsec o s show s ong o wa d and backwa d linkages wi h he
ag icul u e and ag o-indus y sec o s, namely ag icul u e, o es y, and ishe ies se ices;
wholesale and e ail ade (excluding mo o ehicles and mo o cycles); land anspo
(excluding ailways); banking and inancial se ices; en al and business suppo se ices;
elecommunica ions; sea anspo ; e y and e y anspo se ices; ai anspo ; and
ood and be e age se ices.
Ou pu expansion in he ag icul u al and ag o-indus ial sec o s d i en by inc eased
se ices inpu s con ibu ed posi i ely o Indonesia’s mac oeconomy, as indica ed by eal
GDP g ow h, household consump ion, in es men , expo s, and ade- o-GDP a io. Sim-
ula ion 1 ep esen s ade openness in he se ices sec o ; he e is a po en ial inc ease
in GDP, consump ion, and in es men . Simula ion 2: The e is a signi ican jump in con-
sump ion and GDP by ini ia ing an addi ional elemen o p oduc i i y imp o emen in
he se ices sec o . This si ua ion indica es ha se ice sec o ade openness combined
wi h p oduc i i y imp o emen is he p ima y d i e o g ow h in he se i isa ion p ocess.
The mos signi ican impac is e lec ed in Simula ion 3, which combines ade openness,
inc eased se ices p oduc i i y, and inc eased se ices sec o in ol emen in ag icul u e.
This scena io gene a es he highes GDP and consump ion g ow h wi h highe in es men
and expo s han he o he scena ios. Inc eased openness, alue added in he se ices sec o ,
and inc eased ag icul u al labo p oduc i i y will s eng hen he ole o se ices, including
adop ing a ious echnologies in he ag icul u al sec o , he eby inc easing p oduc ion and
con ibu ing o eal GDP g ow h.
In e ms o sec o s, openness o ade in se ices inc eased alue-added, and labo
p oduc i i y in he se ices sec o signi ican ly impac ed he ou pu o bo h ag icul u e and
ag o-indus y, wi h he impac inc easing wi h he complexi y o he policy in e en ion. In
simula ion 1, he impac is s ill limi ed o he ag icul u e and ag o-indus y sec o s. The
analysis esul s also show he same phenomenon as he mac oeconomy, whe e he po en ial
impac on Indonesia’s sec o s eaches i s highes posi ion in Simula ion 3. Commodi ies
such as coconu , ui s, and ege ables expe ience he highes jump in ou pu . The high
con ibu ion o he se ices sec o o speci ic ag icul u al co-commodi ies sugges s ha
he in eg a ion o he se ices sec o plays a c ucial ole in d i ing ag icul u al sec o
p oduc i i y and g ow h. Thus, his esul unde sco es he impo ance o policies ha
p omo e he ole o he se ices sec o by u ilizing Indonesia’s a ious se ice sec o ade
coope a ion schemes o boos Indonesia’s ag icul u al sec o and economic pe o mance.
Au ho Con ibu ions: Concep ualiza ion, W. and S.A.; me hodology, W. and S.A.; so wa e, H.;
alida ion, S.A. and H.; o mal analysis, W.; in es iga ion, W. and S.A.; esou ces, S.A., and H.;
da a cu a ion, W. and A.R.; w i ing—o iginal d a p epa a ion, W. and B.S.M.; w i ing— e iew
and edi ing, W. and B.S.M.; isualiza ion, W., B.S.M. and S.A.; supe ision, W. and A.R.; p ojec
adminis a ion, B.S.M.; unding acquisi ion, W. All au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he published
e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: Co esponding au ho (W.) pay ull o his jou nal.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : The da a o he p esen s udy is una ailable as pa icipan s did no
p o ide hei pe mission o sha e aw da a. The co a iances ma ix and analysis code a e a ailable
upon eques om he i s au ho .
Acknowledgmen s: This s udy pa o collabo a i e pa ne ship be ween In e na ional T ade Anal-
ysis and Policy S udies (ITAPS), Facul y o Economics and Managemen , IPB Uni e si y, and he
Di ec o a e o T ade in Se ices Nego ia ions, Di ec o a e Gene al o In e na ional T ade Nego ia ions,
Minis y o T ade o he Republic o Indonesia.
Economies 2025,13, 199 16 o 18
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic s o in e es .
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