Globalization in the Food Sector and Poverty

Doe , Leo M.; Maennig, Wol gang
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Globaliza ion in he Food Sec o and Po e y
The Eu opean Jou nal o De elopmen Resea ch
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Doe , Leo M.; Maennig, Wol gang (2025) : Globaliza ion in he Food Sec o and
Po e y, The Eu opean Jou nal o De elopmen Resea ch, ISSN 1743-9728, Palg a e Macmillan,
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Globaliza ion in heFood Sec o andPo e y
LeoM.Doe 1· Wol gangMaennig1
Recei ed: 11 Oc obe 2024 / Accep ed: 4 Augus 2025 / Published online: 12 Sep embe 2025
© The Au ho (s) 2025
Abs ac
This pape p o ides new e idence on he globaliza ion‒po e y nexus by isola ing
he e ec s o he ood sec o on he p e alence o absolu e po e y. Using panel
eg essions wi h ixed e ec s (FE) and Gene alized Me hod o Momen (GMM)
es ima o s o a panel o 12 La in Ame ican coun ies om 1995 o 2020, we ind
ha inc eased ood ade signi ican ly inc eases absolu e po e y in ou sample.
Ex ended analysis sugges s ha his e ec ope a es p ima ily h ough ood expo s.
Using a ecen ly collec ed indica o o globaliza ion in he ood sec o , ou es ima es
indica e ha he opening o ood ma ke s since he mid-1990s may ha e accoun ed
o app oxima ely wo addi ional pe cen age poin s o he popula ion li ing below
he absolu e po e y line o $2.15 a day. Ou esul s highligh ha , despi e i s mod-
es sha e o o al ade, ood sec o globaliza ion should be accompanied by pol-
icy measu es aimed a mi iga ing po en ial po e y aps associa ed wi h s uc u al
ans o ma ions ollowing inc eased ood expo s.
Keywo ds T ade policy· Empi ical s udies o ade· Economic impac s o
globaliza ion· Ag icul u e in in e na ional ade· Food policy
Résumé
Ce a icle appo e de nou elles p eu es su le lien en e mondialisa ion e pau e é
en isolan les e e s du sec eu alimen ai e su la p é alence de la pau e é absolue.
À l’aide de ég essions su données de panel a ec e e s ixes (FE) e d’es ima eu s
pa mé hode des momen s géné alisés (GMM) pou un panel de 12 pays d’Amé ique
la ine de 1995 à 2020, nous cons a ons qu’une augmen a ion des échanges alimen ai es
acc oî signi ica i emen la pau e é absolue dans no e échan illon. Une analyse ap-
p o ondie suggè e que ce e e s’exe ce p incipalemen pa le biais des expo a ions
alimen ai es. En u ilisan un indica eu écemmen collec é de la mondialisa ion dans le
* Wol gang Maennig
Wol gang.Maennig@uni-hambu g.de
Leo M. Doe
Leo.Doe @uni-hambu g.de
1 Depa men o Economics, Uni e si y o Hambu g, Hambu g, Von-Melle-Pa k 5,
20146Hambu g, Ge many
935
Globaliza ion in heFood Sec o andPo e y
sec eu alimen ai e, nos es ima ions indiquen que l’ou e u e des ma chés alimen ai es
depuis le milieu des années 1990 pou ai a oi en aîné en i on deux poin s de pou -
cen age supplémen ai es de la popula ion i an sous le seuil de pau e é absolue de
2,15 $ pa jou . Nos ésul a s soulignen que, malg é sa pa modes e dans le comme ce
o al, la mondialisa ion du sec eu alimen ai e de ai s’accompagne de mesu es poli-
iques isan à a énue les isques de pièges à pau e é po en iels liés aux ans o ma-
ions s uc u elles consécu i es à l’augmen a ion des expo a ions alimen ai es.
Resumen
Es e a ículo apo a nue a e idencia sob e la elación en e globalización y pob eza
al aisla los e ec os del sec o alimen a io en la p e alencia de la pob eza absolu a.
U ilizando eg esiones de panel con e ec os ijos (FE) y es imado es de Mé odo Gen-
e alizado de Momen os (GMM) pa a un panel de 12 países la inoame icanos en e
1995 y 2020, encon amos que el aumen o del come cio de alimen os inc emen a
signi ica i amen e la pob eza absolu a en nues a mues a. Un análisis ampliado sug-
ie e que es e e ec o ope a p incipalmen e a a és de las expo aciones de alimen os.
U ilizando un indicado ecien emen e ecopilado de globalización en el sec o ali-
men a io, nues as es imaciones indican que la ape u a de los me cados alimen a ios
desde mediados de la década de 1990 pod ía habe ep esen ado ap oximadamen e
dos pun os po cen uales adicionales de la población i iendo po debajo del umb al
de pob eza absolu a de $2.15 dia ios. Nues os esul ados des acan que, a pesa de
su modes a pa icipación en el come cio o al, la globalización del sec o alimen a io
debe i acompañada de medidas de polí ica o ien adas a mi iga los posibles cí culos
de pob eza asociados a las ans o maciones es uc u ales de i adas del aumen o de
las expo aciones de alimen os.
JEL F13· F14· F60· Q17· Q18
In oduc ion
The e ec s o globaliza ion on po e y a e a much deba ed opic in economics, wi h
no consensus on he sign and magni ude o he e ec s. A summa y o he empi ical
esul s o he las h ee decades is gi en by Win e s e al. (2004) and Win e s and
Ma uscelli (2014). Mos commonly p oxied wi h ade openness, globaliza ion is
unlikely o educe po e y on a la ge scale unless i s imula es economic g ow h,
which i sel is po e y educing (Dolla and K aay 2002; Ra allion and Da 2002).
Mos pape s ha link ade openness di ec ly o po e y p e alence ind no signi i-
can e ec s (Dolla and K aay 2002, 2004; Ra allion 2006).
The e ec s o globaliza ion ha e also been analyzed in o he dimensions, and
some s udies ha e explici ly es ed globaliza ion in he ood sec o . I has been
epo ed o agg a a e inequali y (A uc e al. 2021), hunge (Ma y 2019), employ-
men (Po o 2008), and ood secu i y (Chikhu i 2013). On he o he hand, ood
p ices ise wi h in la ion, o en ollowed by dec easing unemploymen a es (Be -
en sen e  al. 2011; Ball e  al. 2013); ma ke opening can s imula e ag icul u al
936
L.M.Doe , W.Maennig
expo s, which can p omo e g ow h and he e o e educe po e y (Po o 2008;
Sanjuán-López and Dawson 2010). Adding o p e ious s udies, we p o ide a i s
c oss-coun y model ha es ima es he e ec o ood sec o globaliza ion, a he
han gene al globaliza ion, on absolu e po e y. We disagg ega e ade openness by
sec o and inco po a e a new p oxy o ood ade globaliza ion om Ma y (2019)
as an explana o y a iable wi hin a po e y model based on Polloni-Sil a e al.
(2021). Using ood ade openness a he han gene al globaliza ion measu es is
easonable since he majo i y o people expe iencing po e y li e in u al a eas and
depend on ag icul u e, which is domina ed by small-scale amily a me s (Gollin
e al. 2005). Fo people who li e in po e y bu do no di ec ly depend on ag i-
cul u e o hei li elihoods, s aple oods make up a la ge p opo ion o hei daily
expenses, and luc ua ions in ood p ices can pu hem in inancial dis ess (Win e s
and Ma uscelli 2014). The inc ease in he globaliza ion o La in Ame ican ag icul-
u al ma ke s is well documen ed in he empi ical li e a u e. Since he ea ly 1990s,
he egion has expe ienced a p onounced ag o-expo boom d i en by ising global
demand, echnological ad ances in ag ibusiness, and libe alized ade policies.
Coun ies such as B azil, A gen ina, Chile, and Pe u signi ican ly expanded hei
ag icul u al expo po olios, mos ly in high- alue commodi ies such as soybeans,
bee , esh ui s, and special y c ops (Weissko 1992; Ca e and Mesbah 1993;
Ba ham e al. 1995). Simul aneously, many coun ies ha e scaled back he domes ic
p oduc ion o s aple oods such as whea , ice, maize, and dai y, inc easing impo
dependence on hese basic goods. Fo example, Mexico, al hough a majo ag o-
expo e , impo s la ge olumes o co n om he U.S., whe eas whea and dai y
impo s ha e su ged in Pe u, wi h subs an ial economic impac s (King 2006; Gon-
zales and Va ona 2024). This pa e n is also e lec ed in ou sample: as illus a ed in
Fig.1, he combined sha e o ood expo s and impo s in GDP inc eased ma kedly,
om app oxima ely 90% in 1995 o an a e age o o e 200% by 2020.1
Fig. 1 T ade openness: all sec o s s. he ood sec o
1 To illus a e in-sample a ia ion, Fig.2 in he appendix also includes con idence in e als, and Fig.5
displays ood ade o selec ed coun ies.
937
Globaliza ion in heFood Sec o andPo e y
Howe e , he bene i s o his s uc u al ans o ma ion ha e been une enly dis-
ibu ed. Po e y a es, pa icula ly in u al a eas, ha e emained high in coun ies
wi h highly unequal land owne ship and monocul u e-based expo economies
whe e he inc ease in la ge-scale ag ibusiness has ma ginalized smallholde a m-
e s and u al labo e s, es ic ing hei access o gains om he ag o-expo boom
(Ca e e al. 1996; P on i e al. 2024).
Two main mechanisms h ough which ood sec o globaliza ion a ec s absolu e
po e y ha e been iden i ied. On he consume side, while mo e ma ke in eg a ion
can ini ially lowe p ices, i inc eases exposu e o ola ile in e na ional ood ma -
ke s (Li ch ield e al. 2003; Huang e al. 2007), wi h ola ili y shown o signi ican ly
a ec po e y a es (I anic and Ma in 2008; De Hoyos and Med ede 2011).2 Fo
example, in La in Ame ica o he pe iod o he global ood p ice c isis om 2007
o 2008, g ea e ade openness ampli ied ood CPI spikes (Flachsba h and Ga -
ido 2014), and hese shocks ansla ed di ec ly o highe po e y a es (I anic e al.
2012). On he p oduce side, in eg a ion in o global ood ma ke s has been associ-
a ed wi h inc easing land concen a ion, as la ge-scale ag ibusiness displaces adi-
ional smallholde a ming (Bou guignon and Mo isson 1990; P on i e al. 2024).
This shi unde mines u al li elihoods and consequen ly aises po e y a es, pa -
icula ly whe e al e na i e income sou ces a e sca ce (G i in 1976; G i in e al.
2002). Fo example, Chile’s ag o-expo g ow h led o land concen a ion and job
ins abili y (Ca e and Mesbah 1993), whe eas Gua emala’s ege able expo boom
cu ailed peasan land access (Ba ham e al. 1995).
Resea che s ea ly on ha e acknowledged ha es ima ing c oss-coun y po e y
models is p one o e o s, as he assump ion ha po e y in Angola and Aus ia,
o example, is compa able, does no hold (Win e s e al. 2004). A uc e al. (2021)
a emp o uni y he e idence a he household le el by pooling household-le el da a
om di e en coun ies, bu hei da abase is limi ed o 1yea , as he su eys we e
conduc ed using di e en me hods and he indica o s a e no uni o m. Da a quali y
and a ailabili y do no ye allow he ex ension o c oss-coun y da a a he household
le el o e se e al yea s. Following Neaime and Gaysse (2018) and Polloni-Sil a
e al. (2021), we ake a middle pa h and use agg ega ed po e y da a o coun ies
wi hin a con inen ha sha e simila socioeconomic and geog aphical condi ions. In
his way, we main ain compa abili y be ween coun ies while p o iding answe s a a
la ge scale.
Using ou newly cons uc ed da abase and po e y equa ion, ou esul s sugges
ha globaliza ion in he ood sec o , in con as o o e all globaliza ion, has a signi -
ican ly agg a a ed impac on po e y p e alence. The o ien a ion o he ood sec o
in La in Ame ica owa d in e na ional ma ke s desc ibed by Weissko (1992) and
Ca e e al. (1996), no ye analyzed by i s impac s, may accoun o app oxima ely
2% poin s o he popula ion li ing below he absolu e po e y line o $2 a day in
2 This channel has ecei ed public and policy a en ion in he wake o ecen global shocks, no ably he
COVID-19 pandemic and he Russia–Uk aine con lic , bo h o which se e ely dis up ed in e na ional
ood ma ke s and ampli ied ood p ice ola ili y (Labo de e al. 2021; Glaube e al. 2022). No e ha
COVID-19 had mul iple implica ions, which may also a ec po e y (Cues a and Pico 2020; Ja a e al.
2022).

938
L.M.Doe , W.Maennig
ou sample. Sec ion“Da a” p esen s ou da a, and Sec .“Empi ical S a egy and
Resul s” in oduces he empi ical model and p esen s he esul s. Sec ion“Robus -
ness” p esen s he obus ness analysis, and Sec .“Conclusion” concludes.
Da a
We cons uc a da ase wi h 12 La in Ame ican coun ies co e ing app oxima ely
84% o La in Ame ica’s o al popula ion, esul ing in a balanced panel da ase wi h
obse a ions om 1995 o 2020 simila o ha o Polloni-Sil a e al. (2021) bu co -
e ing a much la ge ime span o 26yea s.3
In line wi h he p e ious li e a u e, we de ine absolu e po e y as he pe cen age
o people li ing below he absolu e po e y line (po e y), which is cu en ly se a
USD 2.15 a day a he 2017 Pu chasing Powe Pa i y (PPP) (Wo ld Bank 2022). As
men ioned in he in oduc ion, he economic li e a u e commonly p oxies globaliza-
ion by a coun y’s openness o in e na ional ade, de ined as he sha e o impo s
and expo s ela i e o GDP (T ade). Bo h indica o s a e aken om he Wo ld
Bank’s Wo ld De elopmen indica o s da abase (Wo ld Bank 2005).
To assess he ex en o globaliza ion in he ood sec o , we ollow Ma y (2019).
We begin by collec ing da a om he Uni ed Na ions Food and Ag icul u e O gani-
za ion s a is ics da abase on o al ag icul u al expo s and impo s, as well as ood
expo s and impo s, which include bo h c op and li es ock p oduc s (FAOSTAT
1998). Second, we calcula e he a ios o ag icul u al expo s (impo s) o he o al
olume o expo s (impo s). These a ios a e hen mul iplied by he o al alue o
expo s (impo s) in cons an local cu ency uni s, esul ing in ag icul u al impo s
and expo s. We hen calcula e ag icul u al GDP by mul iplying he pe cen age o
ag icul u e o o al alue added, ob ained om he WDI da abase, by o al GDP in
cons an local cu ency uni s. This allows us o cons uc a measu e o (non)ag i-
cul u al ade openness by di iding he sum o ag icul u al expo s and impo s by
(non)ag icul u al GDP. Finally, we u he decompose ag icul u al ade openness
in o ade openness in he ood sec o and ade openness in he emaining sec o s.
FAOSTAT and WDI da a can hen be used o calcula e he sha e o ood expo s
(impo s) in he ag icul u al sec o and he sha e o ood GDP in ag icul u al GDP.
Thus, we cons uc ed ade openness in he ood sec o (T ade Food) and ade open-
ness in he emaining sec o s (T ade O he ) ha a ge non- ood nonag icul u al
goods as subcomponen s o o e all ade openness. Fo cla i y, Fig.6 o he Appen-
dix p o ides a lowcha de ailing he cons uc ion o ou key ade openness indices
(To al T ade, Food T ade, and T ade O he ).
While he speci ic impac o openness in he ood sec o on absolu e po e y has
no been he subjec o esea ch, he li e a u e is ich on he de e minan s o (abso-
lu e) po e y, and we d aw ou con ol a iables om i . Using da a om he Wo ld
Bank, we include ( eal) pe capi a GDP in USD (gdppc) as he measu e o economic
3 A lis o coun ies can be ound in Table8 in he Appendix. The only La in Ame ican coun y wi h a
popula ion o mo e han 30 million missing om he da ase is Venezuela, o which eliable da a a e no
a ailable.
939
Globaliza ion in heFood Sec o andPo e y
pe o mance. To con ol o e ec s om he labo ma ke , we include na ional
unemploymen a es as a pe cen age o he o al labo o ce (Unemploymen ) and he
emale labo o ce pa icipa ion a e as a pe cen age o he o e all emale popula-
ion olde han 15yea s (Female wo k o ce). The emale labo o ce pa icipa ion
a e se es as a p oxy o labo ma ke dynamics bu also cap u es impo an gen-
de dimensions o po e y alle ia ion, as inc eased pa icipa ion is o en linked o
imp o ed household wel a e and educed ulne abili y (Seguino 2000; Gaddis and
Klasen 2014). Mo eo e , we add consume p ices (CPI, 2010 = 100) o accoun o
po e y, which is d i en by in la ion. Finally, we include he wo d go e nance indi-
ca o ule o law ( ule o law) and he WDI’s pe cen age o he u ban popula ion
(u baniza ion) o he o al popula ion o accoun o gene al poli ical s abili y and
u al exodus. Table1 p esen s comp ehensi e summa y s a is ics.
Empi ical S a egy andResul s
Replica ion: De e minan s o (Absolu e) Po e y
The de e minan s o po e y ha e been modeled in di e en amewo ks (Ra allion
2006; Nikoloski 2011; Kwon and Kim 2014; Awawo yi Chu chill and Smy h 2017;
Oma and Inaba 2020; Polloni-Sil a e al. 2021).4 As a s a ing poin , we d aw on
Polloni-Sil a e al. (2021) as one o he mos ecen empi ical models ha akes in o
accoun he cu en s a e o he li e a u e; hey also model absolu e po e y o a
sample o La in Ame ican coun ies simila o ou s:
whe e Po e y is he pe cen age o people li ing below he po e y line de ined by
he Wo ld Bank, GDPPC is ( eal) pe capi a GDP, In la ion is Consume P ices,
T ade is he sha e o impo s and expo s ela i e o GDP, Unemploymen is he
na ional unemploymen a e, Female wo k o ce is he emale pa icipa ion a e in
na ional labo ma ke s, U baniza ion is he u baniza ion a e, Rule o law is he ule
o law index, and
ci
is a ull se o coun y ixed e ec s.
Table2 Column 2.1 p esen s he esul s o es ima ing Eq.(1) o he same
yea s as in on Polloni-Sil a e al. (2021) (2004–2017) and shows ha we we e
able o eplica e hei esul s in gene al. The pe capi a GDP has a signi ican neg-
a i e e ec on po e y p e alence; a 1% inc ease in ini ial le els o he GDPPC is
ollowed by a dec ease o 0.18% o people li ing below he absolu e po e y line
o $2.15 pe day. Ou esul s show weake (nega i e) e ec s han hose o on Pol-
loni-Sil a e al. (2021) bu a e in line wi h mos o he ele an li e a u e (Nikolo-
ski 2011; Kwon and Kim 2014; Awawo yi Chu chill and Smy h 2017). Consume
p ices also ha e a signi ican nega i e e ec on po e y, in line wi h Polloni-Sil a
(1)
𝑃 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑦
𝑖𝑡 =
𝛼
0+
𝛽
1
GDPPC
i+
𝛽
2
In la ion
i +
𝛽
3
Unemploymen
i
+
𝛽4FemaleWo k o cei
+
𝛽5U baniza ioni
+
𝛽6Ruleo lawi
+
ci
+
𝜀i ,
4 A comp ehensi e summa y o s udies analyzing he de e minan s o po e y is gi en in Table10 in he
Appendix.
940
L.M.Doe , W.Maennig
Table 1 Va iable desc ip ions and summa y s a is ics
Va iables De ini ion NMean SD Min Max
Po e y h $2.15 Po e y headcoun a io
a $2.15 a day (2017
PPP) (%)
273 8.092 6.309 0.400 28.60
Po e y gap $2.15 Po e y gap a $2.15 a day
(2017 PPP) (%)
273 3.320 3.098 0.200 15.10
Po e y h $3.65 Po e y headcoun a io
a $3.65 a day (2017
PPP) (%)
273 17.32 10.35 2.100 48.90
Po e y gap $3.65 Po e y gap a $2.15 a day
(2017 PPP) (%)
273 7.130 5.164 0.700 23.50
MPI Mul idimensional po e y
headcoun a io (Wo ld
Bank) (% o popula ion)
105 6.467 4.959 0.600 21.90
T ade Log (impo s + Expo s)/
GDP
312 0.669 0.349 0.146 1.728
T ade Food Log (Food impo s + Food
Expo s)/Food GDP
312 1.411 0.880 0.306 4.318
T ade o he Log (Non-ag icul u al
impo s + Non-ag i-
cul u al Expo s)/Non-
ag icul u al GDP
312 0.640 0.361 0.130 1.735
Food Impo s Impo alue o o al ood/
Food GDP
312 0.249 0.512 0.000 2.896
Food Expo s Expo alue o o al ood/
Food GDP
312 0.258 0.332 0.000 1.521
GDPPC Ini ial GDP pe capi a in
100 US$ (cons an 2015)
312 63.48 33.85 16.94 151.2
941
Globaliza ion in heFood Sec o andPo e y
Table 1 (con inued)
Va iables De ini ion NMean SD Min Max
CPI Consume p ice index
(2010 = 100)
307 88.31 33.94 20.59 172.8
Unemploymen Unemploymen , o al (%
o o al labo o ce)
291 7.118 3.702 2.021 20.52
Female wo k o ce Labo o ce pa icipa ion
a e, emale (% o emale
popula ion ages 15+)
312 49.71 7.785 33.86 72.07
U baniza ion U ban popula ion (% o
o al popula ion)
312 70.24 11.50 42.94 92.11
Food expo e Dummy = 1 i coun y is a
ne ood expo e
312 0.670 0.471 0 1
948
L.M.Doe , W.Maennig
Fac o s In luencing heRela ionship Be ween Po e y andFood T ade Openness
Se e al ac o s may condi ion he ela ionship be ween ood ade and po e y.
Fi s , he e ec o ood ade openness on hunge —and, by ex ension, on he e y
poo —may a y depending on a coun y’s ne ood ade posi ion. As no ed by Ma y
(2019), wel a e implica ions di e o ood-impo ing e sus ood-expo ing coun-
ies. This is pa icula ly ele an o ou sample, whe e mos coun ies a e ne ood
expo e s (see Table1). We e-es ima e he baseline equa ion wi h a dummy o ne
ood expo e s, in e ac ing i wi h ood ade openness (Column 5.1). The esul s
show no e idence ha ood ade openness depends on a coun y’s ne expo s a-
us, consis en wi h Thi lwall (2013) and Gaci ia and Bello (1991). Howe e , u he
models es ima ed in obus ness Sec .“Food Expo s Vs. Food Impo s” sugges ha
ood expo s and impo s may ha e dis inc e ec s on he e y poo .
Second, he ood ade‒po e y ela ionship may di e be ween u ban and u al
a eas. U ban popula ions a e mo e quickly a ec ed by changes in he ood ma -
ke , bene i ing om sho - e m p ice d ops o acing long- e m p ice sensi i i y
(Cohen and Ga e 2010). In con as , u al a eas may gain expo oppo uni ies
o lose income because o cheape impo s (Ja ee and Henson 2005; Akanle e al.
2013). To explo e his, we add an u baniza ion– ood ade in e ac ion o Eq.(2) in
Table5Column (5.2); he in e ac ion e m is insigni ican , indica ing no di e ence
in po e y esponses be ween u ban and u al a eas.11
Finally, he e ec o ood ma ke libe aliza ion may depend on he le el o abso-
lu e po e y. To in es iga e his, we cons uc h ee bina y indica o s, po e y low
(below 5%), po e y medium (5–10%), and po e y high (abo e 10%), and in e -
ac hese wi h ood ade openness in columns (5.3)–(5.5). The esul s show ha
he ood ade‒po e y ela ionship a ies by po e y le el. In coun ies wi h po -
e y a es below 5%, he coe icien o ood ade is simila o ha o he baseline
speci ica ion, wi h no signi ican in e ac ion e m. The la ges impac is obse ed in
coun ies wi h mode a e po e y (5–10%), whe e a 1% inc ease in ood ade open-
ness is associa ed wi h a 0.04% poin ise in po e y. In con as , coun ies wi h
high-po e y a es appea una ec ed by he ood ade. This may be explained by
he socioeconomic s uc u e and ( ood) ade ba ie s in di e en coun y g oups.
Fo example, coun ies wi h low po e y, such as Cos a Rica and A gen ina, ha e
limi ed subsis ence a ming and indus ialized, expo -o ien ed sec o s, mi iga ing
ade- ela ed shocks. In high-po e y coun ies, such as Colombia and Boli ia, ood
ma ke p o ec ion shields ulne able popula ions om ade ola ili y (see Fig.5 in
he Appendix).
11 In his speci ica ion, he ood ade coe icien canno be in e p e ed meaning ully, as i e lec s a
coun y wi h ze o u ban sha e (Aiken e al. 1991); in ou da a sample u baniza ion anges om 43 o
92%, c . Table1).
ce ns abou coun y-speci ic unobse ed he e ogenei y
𝜃i
in ou le el equa ion in (3) (Roodman 2009).
Foo no e 10 (con inued)

949
Globaliza ion in heFood Sec o andPo e y
Table 5 Po e y and ood ade openness: in e ac ions
Va iables Dependen : PHR $2.15
(5.1)
TWFE
(5.2)
TWFE
(5.3)
TWFE
(5.4)
TWFE
(5.5)
TWFE
T ade Food 0.0191** − 0.0132 0.0140** 0.0446*** 0.0017
(0.0088) (0.0355) (0.0055) (0.0049) (0.0043)
T ade o he 0.0149 0.0071 − 0.0021 − 0.0033 − 0.0019
(0.0154) (0.0174) (0.0051) (0.0048) (0.0046)
Ini ial GDPPC − 0.198*** − 0.214*** − 0.147*** − 0.160*** − 0.128***
(0.0306) (0.0279) (0.0157) (0.0134) (0.0115)
CPI 0.0619*** 0.0634*** 0.0874*** 0.0964*** 0.0986***
(0.0171) (0.0177) (0.0217) (0.0186) (0.0198)
Unemploymen 0.108 0.0860 0.128* 0.153** 0.150*
(0.110) (0.0993) (0.0745) (0.0759) (0.0806)
Female wo k o ce − 0.0521 − 0.0570 − 0.00843 0.00524 0.0639**
(0.0512) (0.0514) (0.0323) (0.0276) (0.0309)
U baniza ion 0.156* 0.169* − 5.06e− 05 0.0396 0.0601*
(0.0909) (0.0879) (0.0402) (0.0366) (0.0350)
Food expo e − 0.572
(0.765)
Food expo e * T ade
Food − 0.0018
(0.0108)
U baniza ion * T ade
Food 0.0005
(0.0005)
950
L.M.Doe , W.Maennig
*p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01, Clus e - obus S d. e o s a e in pa en heses. The dependen a iable is po e y headcoun a io a $2.15 a day (2017 PPP) in %. Models
5.1–5.5 co espond o he baseline speci ica ion wi h di e en in e ac ions
Table 5 (con inued)
Va iables Dependen : PHR $2.15
(5.1)
TWFE
(5.2)
TWFE
(5.3)
TWFE
(5.4)
TWFE
(5.5)
TWFE
Po e y low * T ade
Food 0.0172
(0.0106)
Po e y medium *
T ade Food − 0.053***
(0.0059)
Po e y high * T ade
Food 0.0625***
(0.0065)
Yea FEs Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Coun y FES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Obse a ions 260 260 260 260 260
R20.909 0.909 0.753 0.810 0.812
951
Globaliza ion in heFood Sec o andPo e y
Table 6 Po e y and ood ade openness: al e na i e indica o s
*p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01, Clus e - obus S d. e o s a e in pa en heses. Models (6.1) and (6.2) co espond o he baseline speci ica ion wi h he po e y headcoun
a io a $3.65 a day (2017 PPP) as he dependen a iable. Models (6.3) and (6.4) co espond o he baseline speci ica ion wi h he po e y gap a $2.15 a day (2017 PPP)
as he dependen a iable. Models (6.5) and (6.6) co espond o he baseline speci ica ion wi h he po e y gap a $3.65 a day (2017 PPP) as he dependen a iable. Mod-
els (6.7) and (6.8) co espond o he baseline speci ica ion wi h he Mul idimensional Po e y Index om he Wo ld Bank as he dependen a iable
Va iables Dependen :
PHR $3.65
Dependen :
PG $2.15
Dependen :
PG $3.65
Dependen :
MPI
(6.1)
TWFE
(6.2)
TWFE
(6.3)
TWFE
(6.4)
TWFE
(6.5)
TWFE
(6.6)
TWFE
(6.7)
TWFE
(6.8)
TWFE
T ade Food 0.008 0.020*** 0.017*** 0.025***
(0.010) (0.005) (0.006) (0.006)
L. T ade Food 0.017** 0.020*** 0.019*** 0.020***
(0.008) (0.004) (0.005) (0.006)
T ade o he − 0.032 − 0.042 0.019** 0.012 0.007 − 0.001 0.067*** 0.071***
(0.023) (0.026) (0.009) (0.009) (0.012) (0.013) (0.013) (0.014)
Ini ial GDPPC − 0.43*** − 0.441*** − 0.076*** − 0.072*** − 0.174*** − 0.175*** − 0.31*** − 0.30***
(0.0386) (0.0371) (0.0186) (0.0180) (0.0227) (0.0219) (0.0403) (0.0426)
CPI 0.0591** 0.0597*** 0.0320*** 0.0282*** 0.0466*** 0.0445*** 0.143*** 0.129***
(0.0236) (0.0221) (0.0103) (0.00991) (0.0130) (0.0124) (0.0214) (0.0225)
Unemploymen 0.187 0.306** 0.108* 0.116** 0.103 0.144* 0.412*** 0.367***
(0.157) (0.143) (0.0553) (0.0522) (0.0807) (0.0736) (0.0742) (0.0740)
Female wo k o ce − 0.154** − 0.183** − 0.00868 0.00231 − 0.0439 − 0.0444 − 0.15*** − 0.16***
(0.0731) (0.0722) (0.0327) (0.0327) (0.0403) (0.0404) (0.0501) (0.0538)
U baniza ion 0.296** 0.254** 0.0505 0.0273 0.137** 0.106 0.543*** 0.516***
(0.123) (0.127) (0.0442) (0.0463) (0.0625) (0.0647) (0.127) (0.132)
Yea FEs Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Coun y FES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Obse a ions 260 254 260 254 260 254 100 100
R20.929 0.933 0.863 0.862 0.913 0.915 0.986 0.985
952
L.M.Doe , W.Maennig
Al e na i e Measu es o Po e y
To u he inc ease he obus ness o ou es ima ions, we ollow Awawo yi Chu ch-
ill and Smy h (2017) and eg ess a ull se o al e na i e po e y indica o s in ou
base Eq.(2). Fi s , as he esul s in Table4 show e idence o po en ial delayed po -
e y e ec s o globaliza ion, we ollow Ra allion (2006) and include i s lags o ou
ade p oxy in o he obus ness speci ica ions in he nex s eps. We i s use he po -
e y headcoun a io a $3.65 o add ess people who li e in less se e e po e y (Col-
umns 6.1 and 6.2 in Table6). As expec ed, he ag icul u al and ood ma ke e ec s
es ima ed o ou sample a e less s ong han hose es ima ed o people li ing in less
se e e po e y, which is consis en wi h he indings o A uc e al. (2021). Howe e ,
he unde lying pa e n emains unchanged; we ob ain e idence o a signi ican nega-
i e e ec o globaliza ion in he ood sec o on po e y, in con as o he lack o
e ec o o e all globaliza ion.
The po e y headcoun a io has been c i icized as a measu e o absolu e po e y
because i does no conside how a people’s incomes a e below he absolu e po -
e y line (Nikoloski 2011; Awawo yi Chu chill and Smy h 2017). To add ess his
sho coming, he Wo ld Bank Resea ch G oup de eloped he po e y gap index,
de ined as he a io by which he a e age income o he poo alls below he abso-
lu e po e y line. To de e mine whe he he dep o po e y eac s di e en ly o
inc eased ood ma ke globaliza ion, we e-es ima e ou baseline equa ion wi h he
po e y gap a $2.15 (Columns 6.3 and 6.4) and $3.65 (Columns 6.5 and 6.6) as
he dependen a iable. We obse e some e idence o an agg a a ing e ec o glo-
baliza ion in all o he sec o s on he po e y gap a $2.15, which is consis en wi h
Win e s e al. (2004), who ind ha o e all ade openness may only ha e an e ec
on he e y poo es .
Finally, we use he mul idimensional po e y index (MPI) p oposed by Alki e
and San os (2014) as a comple e indica o ha assesses mo e dimensions o po e y
han jus a ailable income, such as In as uc u al cons ain s (e.g., access o clean
wa e , elec ici y and housing), as well as educa ion, heal h ca e, and good nu i-
ion (Columns 6.7 and 6.8). Despi e a much smalle da a co e age, and simila o
Awawo yi Chu chill and Smy h (2017), he MPI esponds s ongly o all co a ia es,
including gene al ade.12 Apa om ha , and simila o he o he po e y indica-
o s used, he esul s emain s able o e bo h speci ica ions, especially conce ning
he signi ican e ec o ood ade openness.
Food Expo s Vs. Food Impo s
The po e y implica ions o ade libe aliza ion may di e be ween impo and
expo dynamics, pa icula ly in ag a ian sec o s (Da is 2002; King 2006). We hus
e-es ima e Eq.(2), sepa a ing he ood ade a iable in o impo s and expo s. We
12 We ind somewha s onge e ec s o ood ade openness on he MPI han on income-based head-
coun a ios. As he MPI cap u es mul idimensional dep i a ions beyond income—including heal h, edu-
ca ion, and li ing s anda ds—i is likely mo e sensi i e o s uc u al changes induced by ood sec o glo-
baliza ion (Alki e and San os 2014).
953
Globaliza ion in heFood Sec o andPo e y
g adually in oduce ixed e ec s o check o mul icollinea i y (Table7, columns
7.1–7.3) and use once-lagged alues o impo s and expo s o add ess endogenei y
conce ns (columns 7.4–7.6).
The esul s sugges ha inc easing sha es o ood impo s a e weakly associa ed
wi h po e y educ ion (wi h signi icance le els anging om 5 o 10%, depending
on he ixed e ec s applied), whe eas inc easing sha es o ood expo s a e associ-
a ed wi h mo e po e y (wi h signi icance le els anging om 1 o 5%, depending on
he ixed e ec s applied). These indings align wi h Ng and Aksoy (2008), who ind
ha inc easing ood impo s may imp o e ade balances and ood secu i y in lowe -
middle-income coun ies such as hose in La in Ame ica. Mo e ecen esea ch also
suppo s he s abilizing ole o impo s in na ional ood sys ems (Po kka e al. 2017;
Sub amaniam e al. 2024). In con as , ood expo s appea o be linked o highe
po e y a es, especially in La in Ame ica, due o land concen a ion and he shi
Table 7 Po e y and ood impo s and expo s
*p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01, Clus e - obus S d. e o s a e in pa en heses. The dependen a iable is
po e y headcoun a io a $2.15 a day (2017 PPP) in %; Model (4.1) co esponds o he baseline speci i-
ca ion in Eq.(2), wi h Food T ade di ided in o ood impo s and ood expo s es ima ed ia OLS
Va iables Dependen : PHR $2.15
(7.1) (7.2) (7.3) (7.4) (7.5) (7.6)
OLS FE TWFE OLS FE TWFE
Food Impo s − 0.0055* − 0.0090*** − 0.0046
(0.0030) (0.331) (0.0081)
Food Expo s 0.0077** 0.0108*** − 0.00085
(0.0031) (0.330) (0.0048)
L. Food Impo s − 0.0050* − 0.00810** 0.00101
(0.0030) (0.319) (0.0076)
L. Food Expo s 0.0075** 0.0101*** 0.0019
(0.0031) (0.319) (0.0053)
T ade o he − 0.0047 0.0041 0.00443 − 0.0059 0.0027 − 0.00208
(0.0071) (0.0083) (0.0161) (0.0069) (0.0080) (0.0189)
Ini ial GDPPC − 0.151*** − 0.159*** − 0.203*** − 0.147*** − 0.155*** − 0.199***
(0.0179) (0.0189) (0.0359) (0.0178) (0.0183) (0.039)
CPI 0.269*** 0.154* 0.0639 0.306*** 0.193** 0.137
(0.0794) (0.0804) (0.110) (0.0782) (0.0824) (0.107)
Unemploymen − 0.0301 − 0.0417 − 0.0354 − 0.0282 − 0.0384 − 0.0385
(0.0338) (0.0343) (0.0504) (0.0333) (0.0339) (0.0513)
Female wo k o ce − 0.0647 − 0.0115 0.220*** − 0.0740* − 0.0185 0.165*
(0.0470) (0.0522) (0.0820) (0.0447) (0.0504) (0.0842)
Yea FEs No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Coun y FES No No Yes No No Yes
Obse a ions 260 260 260 254 254 254
R20.723 0.750 0.905 0.731 0.753 0.905

954
L.M.Doe , W.Maennig
o expo -o ien ed, high- alue c op p oduc ion (Ca e and Mesbah 1993; Ba ham
e al. 1995; Ca e e al. 1996; P on i e al. 2024). Howe e , con olling o c oss-
coun y a ia ion in expo and impo s uc u es (columns 7.3 and 7.6) implies ha
he ela ionship is sensi i e o na ional-le el unobse ed ac o s.
Conclusion
We i s eplica e he indings o Polloni-Sil a e al. (2021) on he de e minan s o
po e y o a da ase o 12 La in Ame ican coun ies co e ing he yea s 1995 o
2020. Second, we add ou (o e all) globaliza ion p oxy o he model and ind no sig-
ni ican po e y e ec s, in line wi h Ra allion (2006), Kwon and Kim (2014), Anse
e al. (2020), and Oma and Inaba (2020).
In con as , when we use globaliza ion in he ood sec o ins ead o o e all glo-
baliza ion in he hi d s ep, we ind a signi ican and obus posi i e e ec on he
p e alence o absolu e po e y. Ou indings sugges ha despi e i s small sha e o
o e all ade, he inc eased in eg a ion o he La in Ame ican ood sec o in o in e -
na ional ma ke s since he 1990s may accoun o up o 2% poin s o he popula ion
li ing below he absolu e po e y line o $2.15 a day in ou sample. Ex ended analy-
sis p o ides e idence ha ou po e y e ec s a e ca ied by coun ies wi h mode a e
absolu e po e y a es be ween 5 and 10% and ha he ansi ion om mo e global
in eg a ion o he ood sec o o inc eased po e y a es wo ks h ough ood expo s.
Fig. 2 T ade Food and T ade o e all wi h Con idence in e als
955
Globaliza ion in heFood Sec o andPo e y
The esul s a e obus o po en ial endogenei y issues and ime se ies cha ac e is ics
and hold ac oss he di e en es ima o s and absolu e po e y measu es used.
Rega ding o he de e minan s o po e y p e alence, ou models iden i y GDP
pe capi a as he main d i e o po e y p e alence, which is in line wi h he ele an
li e a u e. Ou es ima es may be iewed in addi ion o he indings o Po o (2008),
Chikhu i (2013), and Ma y (2019), who ind agg a a ing e ec s o ood and ag icul-
u al ade openness on a iables such as unemploymen , ood secu i y, and hunge
p e alence. Ou esul s also add o he li e a u e conce ning he impac o ag icul-
u al globaliza ion a he local le el, whe e au ho s ind nega i e po e y e ec s o
selec ed Asian coun ies (Li ch ield e al. 2003; Huang e al. 2007). We u he add
o he li e a u e on he Ag o-Expo Boom in La in Ame ica om he ea ly 1990s
onwa ds (Ca e and Mesbah 1993; Ba ham e al. 1995; Ca e e al. 1996; P on i
Fig. 3 A e aged PHR $2.15 in ou sample
Fig. 4 A e aged pe capi a GDP in ou sample o he yea s 1995–2020
956
L.M.Doe , W.Maennig
e al. 2024). Finally, ou indings may add o he li e a u e conce ning he gene al
de e minan s o po e y (Ra allion 2006; Nikoloski 2011; Kwon and Kim 2014;
Awawo yi Chu chill and Smy h 2017; Anse e al. 2020; Oma and Inaba 2020; Pol-
loni-Sil a e al. 2021).
Wi h espec o policy implica ions, ou iden i ica ion o a mechanism o he po -
e y-inc easing e ec s o ood sec o globaliza ion in La in Ame ica ia he expo
channel may lead o s uc u al ans o ma ions calling o accompanying policies.
Fo example, Ba ham e al. (1995) emphasize ha land ma ke e o ms enabling
smallholde s o pu chase o e ain land can help shield hem om po e y aps
linked o ade libe aliza ion, as obse ed in Gua emala. Be gau e al. (2022) ec-
ommend p omo ing a m di e si ica ion and imp o ing ma ke access as e ec i e
ools o enhance ood secu i y and educe u al po e y. Simila ly, Sawadogo (2024)
epo ed ha subsidy p og ams o ag icul u al mechaniza ion can lowe po e y
a es, al hough hei e ec i eness depends on inancing modali ies.
The e a e limi a ions o ou analysis. Fi s , he upscaled e ec s in Sec .“Empi i-
cal S a egy and Resul s” a e speci ic o a pa icula ime pe iod and egion. Addi-
ionally, he size o hese e ec s may sugges ha ood ade globaliza ion is a p i-
ma y d i e o po e y in ou sample. To con ex ualize ou esul s, we scale up he
es ima ed income e ec simila ly o ha o he ood ade and ind ha he po -
e y- educing impac o income is h ee imes s onge han ha o ood ade glo-
baliza ion, highligh ing he c i ical impo ance o b oad-based income g ow h, as
suppo ed by p e ious s udies (Ra allion and Da 2002; Dolla and K aay 2002,
2004). Second, ou analysis may be subjec o da a limi a ions. Fo example, meas-
u emen e o s o biases in ha monizing PPP measu es may complica e c oss-coun-
y and empo al compa abili y. Mo eo e , he eliance on coun y-le el agg ega es
obscu es dis ibu ional e ec s o a m size, commodi y, o labo s a us. Mic ole el
da a may s eng hen es s o mechanisms such as land concen a ion channels; how-
e e , sys ema ic, compa able da a on a m s uc u es emain sca ce in La in Ame ica
(Lowde e al. 2021).
Fig. 5 A e aged ood ade in selec ed coun ies, 1995–2020
957
Globaliza ion in heFood Sec o andPo e y
Fig. 6 Composi ion o T ade, T ade Food and T ade o he
964
L.M.Doe , W.Maennig
Ve meulen, S., and L. Co ula. 2010. Making he mos o ag icul u al in es men : A su ey o business
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Weissko , R. 1992. The Pa aguayan ag o-expo model o de elopmen . Wo ld De elopmen 20 (10):
1531–1540.
Win e s, L. A., and A. Ma uscelli. 2014. T ade libe aliza ion and po e y: Wha ha e we lea ned in a
decade? Annual Re iew o Resou ce Economics 6 (1): 493–512.
Win e s, L. A., N. McCulloch, and A. McKay. 2004. T ade libe aliza ion and po e y: The e idence so
a . Jou nal o Economic Li e a u e 42 (1): 72–115.
Wo ld Bank. 2005. Wo ld de elopmen indica o s. The Wo ld Bank. A ailable unde :h p:// docum en s.
wo ld bank. o g/ cu a ed/ en/ 94795 14681 40975 423 Sep embe 2025
Wo ld Bank. 2022. Fac Shee : An Adjus men o Global Po e y Lines. The Wo ld Bank. A ail-
able unde : h ps:// www. wo ld bank. o g/ en/ news/ ac s hee / 2022/ 05/ 02/ ac - shee - an- adjus men - o-
global- po e y- lines, Sep embe 2025
Publishe ’s No e Sp inge Na u e emains neu al wi h ega d o ju isdic ional claims in published maps
and ins i u ional a ilia ions.