Nguyen, Jessica; Tue Dinh; Sela , Ma cus
A icle
The p edic ing abili ies o social us and good
go e nance on economic c isis du a ion
Adminis a i e Sciences
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Nguyen, Jessica; Tue Dinh; Sela , Ma cus (2025) : The p edic ing abili ies o social
us and good go e nance on economic c isis du a ion, Adminis a i e Sciences, ISSN 2076-3387,
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Ci a ion: Nguyen, J., Dinh, T., &
Sela , M. (2025). The P edic ing
Abili ies o Social T us and Good
Go e nance on Economic C isis
Du a ion. Adminis a i e Sciences,
15(4), 123. h ps://doi.o g/
10.3390/admsci15040123
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A icle
The P edic ing Abili ies o Social T us and Good Go e nance on
Economic C isis Du a ion
Jessica Nguyen, Tue Dinh and Ma cus Sela *
Depa men o S a egy and Managemen , No wegian School o Economics, 5045 Be gen, No way;
[email p o ec ed] (J.N.); [email p o ec ed] (T.D.)
*Co espondence: ma [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : In all success ul economic socie ies, us is a uni y ac o . By con as , he absence
o us leads o poo economic pe o mance and nega i e social implica ions. In his
pape , we unco e he ela ionships among social us , co up ion, and he du a ion
o economic c ises. Ou heo e ical ounda ion is based on a collec ion o s udies om
di e en academic ields, especially poli ical science, sociology, and economics. We es
wo hypo heses: Hypo hesis 1: Social us has a nega i e co ela ion wi h he du a ion
ime o an economic c isis. Hypo hesis 2: Co up ion has a posi i e co ela ion wi h he
du a ion ime o an economic c isis. Ou s udy is based on wo me hods: desc ip i e
and econome ic analysis. As a i s s ep, we pe o m a desc ip i e analysis on a da ase
including social us , co up ion, and economic c isis as a iables. As a second s ep,
we apply econome ic echniques o analyse ou da a. Fo he hypo heses, we in oduce
a mul iple eg ession wi h con ol a iables. Ou da ase includes 11,364 obse a ions
dis ibu ed ac oss 211 coun ies. The quan i a i e indings suppo Hypo hesis 1 sugges ing
ha , as he du a ion o economic c ises inc eases, social us declines. Simila ly, when he
du a ion o he economic c isis dec eases, social us inc eases. Hypo hesis 2 was ejec ed.
Connec ing ou heo e ical s ance wi h he empi ical e idence, we p opose se e al possible
explana ions o he indings and p o ide bo h heo e ical and p ac ical implica ions.
Keywo ds: us ; co up ion; economic c isis; public policy; social jus ice
1. In oduc ion
F om ime o ime, he media asse s ha co up ion hinde s economic g ow h and
keeps co up na ions om ad ancing u he on hei economic jou ney. The e is no doub
ha co up ion plays a key ole in he de elopmen le el o a coun y. No coun y is
ee o co up ion o he esponsibili y o inding in e na ional solu ions o i , hough he
p oblem is gene ally mo e widesp ead in low-income han weal hie coun ies (Sø eide,
2016). Because go e nmen in e en ion ans e s esou ces om one pa y o ano he , i
un o una ely also c ea es oom o co up ion (Acemoglu & Ve die ,2000). Wha ac o s
de e mine he weal h o a na ion? A gene al consensus is ha echnology, na u al esou ces,
and physical and human capi al cons i u e such ac o s (Jo genson,1991). Howe e , om
a social capi al heo is pe spec i e, he posi i e and nega i e social o ces wi hin each
socie y can ei he ha m o s eng hen he a luence o a na ion (Os om & Ahn,2009). F om
his s andpoin , a less amilia ac o eme ges and plays a key ole in assessing he le el
o weal h—namely, social us . P io esea ch e eals ha he e is a s ong ela ionship
be ween co up ion and social us (Ro hs ein,2005).
Se e al links may connec economic c isis wi h co up ion and social us . In all suc-
cess ul economic socie ies, us is a uni y ac o (Fukuyama,1995). By con as , he absence
Adm. Sci. 2025,15, 123 h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/admsci15040123
Adm. Sci. 2025,15, 123 2 o 16
o us leads o poo economic pe o mance and nega i e social implica ions. Co up ion
and social us a e closely linked h ough mu ual connec ions wi h inequali y. This is be-
cause a dishones go e nmen esul s in highe inequali y and lowe social us (Ro hs ein,
2005). In addi ion, se e al s udies ha e examined he ela ionship be ween c ime and employ-
men , ea nings, and labou ma ke condi ions (see Fougè e e al.,2010;Lin,2008;Raphael
& Win e -Ebme ,2001). Despi e e idence ha economic c isis and c imes a e po en ially
ela ed, ew s udies ha e ocused on he ela ionship be ween economic c isis and co up ion.
Ne e heless, he e is esea ch ha has ocused on he ela ionship be ween social us and
economics (Uslane ,2002;G ae & S endsen,2013;Knack & S ephen,2001;Bjø nsko ,2012;
Deng e al.,2012), as well as be ween social us and co up ion (Ro hs ein,2005,2013;Sun &
Wang,2012;Boix & Posne ,1998). S ill, un il oday, he e is no s udy ha has ocused on he
in e ela ionships be ween economic c isis, social us , and co up ion in socie y. Since he e
clea ly is a gap he e, he e is a call o s udies in his pa icula a ea.
Fi s , in Sec ion 2, we p esen ou heo e ical amewo k along wi h he hypo heses. In
his pa , we conduc a li e a u e e iew o wha has been published, examining he mos ecen
s udies on social us , economic c isis, and co up ion. Second, in Sec ion 3, we p esen ou
me hodology and empi ical app oach. In his pa , we begin wi h a p esen a ion o he used
da abases and hen in oduce he analy ical echniques and adjus men s made while s uc u ing
he da abases. Thi d, in Sec ion 4, we in oduce ou empi ical model, be o e discussing he
weaknesses o ou da a. We also ocus on he esul s o ou desc ip i e and econome ic
analyses. The pu pose o he desc ip i e analysis is o illus a e he possible co ela ions among
he a iables. In he econome ic analysis, we conside whe he he du a ion o economic c ises
is ela ed o social us and co up ion. Finally, we discuss he esul s wi h espec o heo e ical
and p ac ical implica ions, p esen he limi a ions, and o e ideas o u he esea ch.
2. Theo y and Hypo heses
Social us is de ined as he ai h people pu in he socie y o which hey belong
(Taylo e al.,2007). One eason o he g owing in e es in social us is ha i is posi i ely
co ela ed wi h many o he ac o s in social science (Ro hs ein,2005). Ci izens who ha e
high us in hei communi ies a e also likely o ha e posi i e iews o democ a ic ins i u-
ions. They also pa icipa e mo e ac i ely in poli ics, gi e mo e o cha i y and show mo e
empa hy o mino i ies in hei socie ies. In addi ion, hese people end o be mo e sa is ied
and o ha e g ea e belie s in hei abili ies o in luence hei own li es (Dinesen & This ed,
2013;Leung e al.,2011). On a socie al le el, coun ies whose ci izens ha e high us ha e
be e democ a ic ins i u ions, possess mo e open economies, ha e highe economic g ow h
and ha e less c ime and co up ion (Bjø nsko ,2009;Richey,2010;Ro hs ein,2013).
2.1. C ea ion o Social T us
The causes o social us ha e long been he subjec o deba e among social esea che s
(Ro hs ein,2013). Two main pe spec i es ha e a bea ing on social us . The i s is he
socie y-cen ed app oach (S olle & Hooghe,2003). Resea che s who sha e his pe spec i e
belie e ha ci izens o a socie y gene a e social us h ough hei engagemen in social
ac i i ies, especially olun ee ing. Howe e , his app oach does no align well wi h em-
pi ical esea ch (Delhey & New on,2003;Ro hs ein,2013), which a gues ha he e is a
sel -selec ion p oblem a hand, such ha people who pa icipa e in olun a y associa ions
a e al eady high- us ci izens. In addi ion, olun a y ac i i ies do no con ibu e o he
imp o emen o social us among o ganiza ional membe s (S olle & Hooghe,2003). The
second pe spec i e holds ha social us esul s om he le el o equali y in a socie y
(Ro hs ein,2005). Equali y comes in wo ypes: economic and oppo uni y. Economic
equali y is easie o measu e because i can be quan i ied by how esou ces a e edis ibu ed
Adm. Sci. 2025,15, 123 3 o 16
among membe s o a socie y. Equali y o oppo uni y, howe e , is a mo e c ucial o m o
equali y because, e en in he case o economic inequali y, policies ha suppo equali y o
oppo uni y can play an impo an ole in imp o ing social us . An example o his is
in es men in uni e sal educa ion p og ams, as educa ion has he po en ial o s eng hen
he economic p ospec s and is one o he mos c i ical ac o s o enhance social us (B ehm
& Rahn,1997). The second pe spec i e is he ins i u ion-cen ed app oach. Suppo e s o
his app oach belie e ha an hones , inco up , and e icien go e nmen is a key ac o
o he de elopmen o social us in a socie y (Ro hs ein,2013). These suppo e s also
belie e in a s ong co ela ion be ween high- us socie ies and inco up go e nmen s.
Using su ey da a, he esea ch also concludes ha hones poli ical ins i u ions posi i ely
con ibu e o in e pe sonal us (Bjø nsko ,2009;F ei ag & Buhlmann,2005).
2.2. Social T us and Economics
F om an economic s andpoin , social us has a posi i e e ec on he economy o a
na ion. Social us educes he cos o hi d-pa y in e e ence among economic ac o s
(Uslane ,2002). I hus acili a es ansac ions while dec easing he cos s o con olling,
such as he cos s ied o go e nmen in e en ion. As a esul , he sa ed esou ces can be
in es ed in o he bene icial ac i i ies, such as educa ion and in as uc u e, o he bene i o
he o e all g ow h o he economy (G ae & S endsen,2013). In a high- us en i onmen ,
ime and e o a e expended mo e e ec i ely because in es o s do no need o wo y
abou he alidi y o hei agen s. As a esul , highe p oduc i i y is likely o e ol e (Knack
& S ephen,2001). E idence also indica es ha us a ec s educa ion, ule o law, and
go e nmen quali y. Toge he , hese h ee ac o s inc ease he in es men a e and p o ide
a posi i e impac on economic g ow h (Bjø nsko ,2012). Fu he mo e, social us can
imp o e human capi al, enhance go e nmen e iciency, and s eng hen he posi i e e ec s
on economic g ow h (Deng e al.,2012).
2.3. Co up ion and I s O igins
Acco ding o Sø eide (2016), co up ion is de ined as he ade in decisions ha should
no be o sale. The wo d is associa ed wi h illegal ac i i ies ha abuse au ho i y o gain
pe sonal bene i s. Co up ion can also be applied o culp i s who demand and acili a e
ade in decisions h ough b ibe y. Consequen ly, co up ion weakens he ounda ion
o go e nmen au ho i y and des oys he basis o s a e de elopmen . I is he e o e
conside ed a e y se ious o m o c ime.
The e is no coun y in he wo ld ha is ee o co up ion. Howe e , he p oblem is mo e
se e e in low-income coun ies han in weal hie na ions (Sø eide,2016). Many esea che s
belie e ha co up ion in highe -income coun ies o coun ies ha ha e be e -pe o ming
ins i u ions may be unde es ima ed. The eason is ha , in hese coun ies, co up ion happens
in mo e sub le o ms and usually wi h be e concealmen (Sø eide,2016). The a e o ex o i e
co up ion is o en highe in poo coun ies, while he a e o collusi e co up ion is no
signi ican ly ela ed o income le els (Sø eide,2016). Ne e heless, he ypes o co up ion ha
a e usually s udied may no be he mos dange ous ones. C onyism, which is he connec ion
be ween powe ul business leade s and poli icians, is usually ega ded as mo e des uc i e
and mo e di icul o measu e han o he o ms o co up ion (Lambsdo ,2015). Howe e ,
e idence sugges s ha poo e coun ies wi h less e ec i e go e nmen s also su e om
c onyism (Fisman & Miguel,2010). O e all, he e is cu en ly a wide- anging li e a u e a guing
ha objec i e le els o co up ion a e no o iously di icul o de e mine o assess. Co up ion
pe cep ion o expe -de e mined scales o co up ion a e he e o e o en used as p oxies.
Co up ion on a poli ical le el is pa icula ly de imen al o de elopmen , because
poli icians and business leade s exe excessi e con ol o e esou ces ha a e impe a i e
Adm. Sci. 2025,15, 123 4 o 16
o de elopmen (Acemoglu e al.,2001). Ano he example is en -seeking. I implies
imp o ing one’s sha e om exis ing esou ces wi hou c ea ing new weal h o he socie y.
Thus, en -seeking dwindles economic e iciency because skilled agen s use hei ime and
capabili y o cap u e he en s a he han pa icipa ing in p oduc i e ac i i ies (Collie &
Gode is,2007;Kols ad & Wiig,2011;Robinson e al.,2006).
2.4. Social T us and Co up ion
F om a poli ical s andpoin , inco up and hones go e nmen s p omo e social us
inside a communi y, while co up and ine icien go e nmen s des oy us among people
(Ro hs ein,2005,2013;Sun & Wang,2012). By in e ac ing wi h co up o icials, ci izens no
only lose us in ins i u ions bu in o he people in hei communi ies (Ro hs ein,2013;Sun
& Wang,2012). Acco ding o Ro hs ein (2013), one o he easons o his phenomenon is
ha i is impossible o a no mal ci izen o measu e he us o all he people in a socie y.
Ci izens gene alize hei belie s abou he us wo hiness o public o icials o he whole
popula ion. I hey ha e a nega i e expe ience wi h public o icials, hey a e no likely o
us o dina y ci izens. In addi ion, hey ela e o o he people as being un us wo hy,
because hey belie e o he s also engage in co up ac i i ies h ough con ac wi h co up
public o icials. As a esul , hey conside hemsel es o be co up indi iduals and hus
lose us in hemsel es.
Resea ch also shows linkages be ween co up ion and inequali y ha a ec social us
indi ec ly (Uslane ,2012). The link be ween equali y and us can be casually explained by
wo easons (Ro hs ein,2005). Fi s , economic inequali y and low equali y o oppo uni y
inc ease pessimism among he poo . Because hey eel ha socie ies do no ea hem
ai ly, especially in he educa ion and labou ma ke s, hey begin losing us in o he s who
possess mo e esou ces. Second, when he le el o inequali y is high, people do no belie e
ha hey sha e a common des iny. The income gap be ween he ich and he poo u he
sepa a es he wo g oups, because nei he g oup ega ds i sel as pa o a la ge en i y.
Ins ead, his sepa a ion s eng hens he nega i e s e eo ypes abou each g oup, deg ading
he le el o us o an e en lowe poin . I hus becomes mo e di icul o close he gap
be ween he g oups (Boix & Posne ,1998).
In addi ion, he link among us , co up ion, and inequali y can be shown by dis-
inguishing be ween gene alized and pa icula ized us . Gene alized us e e s o he
us in all people ega dless o he di e ences be ween g oups in a socie y. By con as ,
pa icula ized us e lec s he close ela ionship be ween simila indi iduals, in e ms o
economic si ua ion, gende , and social class. Pa icula ized us also implies he dis us
o hose ou side one’s own social ci cle (Uslane ,2002). Co up ion can only p omo e
pa icula ized us . In a co up socie y, public o ice s only ewa d he people who show
loyal y o hem (Ro hs ein,2005). Co up poli icians also s eal esou ces om he s a e o
en ich hemsel es and hei immedia e business ci cle (Uslane ,2012). Pa icula ized us
is he exac opposi e o social us because i damages he ela ionship be ween people
om di e en backg ounds (Uslane ,2002). In a socie y in which people ca e less o
hose ou side hei own social g oup, social us canno exis . This is because each g oup
only ca e abou i s own in e es s, a he expense o he needs o he o he g oup. G oup
membe s may e en pe cei e demands om he o he g oup o be in con lic wi h hei own
well-being, leading o mo e esen men and social con lic . E en ually, he ich and he poo
canno each a common unde s anding and a e bound o be u he sepa a ed om each
o he . These e ec s c ea e a social ap o inequali y and low us in socie ies ha al eady
ha e a high le el o co up ion. The e o e, co up ion main ains a high le el o inequali y
ha wo sens social us in an endless and con inuing cycle ha seems impossible o b eak
(Uslane ,2012).
Adm. Sci. 2025,15, 123 5 o 16
2.5. Economic C isis Du a ion and I s Consequences
The du a ion o a c isis inc eases wi h he complexi y o i , and complexi y is ela ed o
he se e i y o he impac (Lae en & Valencia,2018). Fo example, longe and mo e complex
c ises a e associa ed wi h la ge capi al ou lows and wo se ou comes in e ms o ou pu
loss and in la ion. Highe in la ion ends o accele a e pu chases as consume s an icipa e
ising p ices in he sho e m and buy p oduc s in he hope ha hey will be mo e expensi e
omo ow. Lae en and Valencia (2018) de ined c isis du a ion as he s a and he end o a
c isis. The end da e o a c isis pe iod e e s o he yea be o e bo h eal g oss domes ic p oduc
(GDP) g ow h and eal c edi g ow h a e posi i e o a leas wo consecu i e yea s.
Resea ch on he inancial c isis o 2007–2008 ound ha he c isis a ec ed coun ies
and indi iduals o di e en social classes unequally (Sachweh,2018). No mally, he impac
o a c isis is associa ed wi h an inc ease in s a e esponsibili y, g ea e wel a e suppo ,
and edis ibu ion o weal h (Blekesaune,2013;Naumann e al.,2016). Howe e , his
associa ion is no homogeneous because o he di e ences in social class posi ions, na ional
economic condi ions, and social spending le els (Chzhen,2016;Me ens & Beblo,2016;
Sachweh,2018). On an indi idual le el, a s onge pe cei ed c isis impac is associa ed
wi h mo e a ou able a i udes owa ds wel a e s a e suppo (F aile & Fons,2005;Jeene
e al.,2014). Howe e , wel a e s a e suppo is less ela ed o a pe cei ed c isis impac when
social spending is highe , indica ing ha encompassing wel a e s a es educe he subjec i e
impac o he c isis (Blekesaune,2013).
Unemploymen can be a ‘class isk’ i social consequences o economic down u ns a e
dis ibu ed une enly among indi iduals (Eu o und,2012;Rueda,2012;Sachweh,2018). In
gene al, membe s o disad an aged social g oups (e.g., low-income ea ne s, low-skilled wo k-
e s, and young people) a e exposed o g ea e social isks du ing economic down u ns han
membe s o p i ileged g oups (Chzhen,2016;OECD,2019). This is because disad an aged
g oups ha e less economic esou ces o bu e agains economic down u ns, and his is es-
pecially e iden o e longe pe iods (Kluegel,1988). As such, hey a e mo e dependen on
s a e bene i s o main ain hei s anda d o li ing han membe s o mo e p i ileged g oups. In
addi ion, people om disad an aged g oups o en ha e smalle social ne wo ks ha could
wo k as addi ional social suppo du ing an economic c isis (Reeskens & an Oo scho ,2014).
Inciden ally, du ing he 2007–2008 inancial c isis, he inc ease in social spending in Eu opean
coun ies was lowes in he coun ies ha we e mos a ec ed by he c isis. This indica es
ha he e a e di e ences in coun ies’ capaci ies o handle he e ec s o economic down u ns
(Leschke & Jepsen,2012). Eu opean wel a e s a es s ill di e in hei ins i u ional design and
gene osi y, as well as in hei social and labou ma ke policy esponses o a c isis (Sc uggs &
Allan,2006;S a ke e al.,2013; an Hoo en e al.,2014).
The s udy by Ha i i e al. (2016) on de eloping coun ies indica es ha economic
shocks, such as unan icipa ed cu ency de alua ions, ha e a s ong and nega i e causal
e ec on how people a e hei li ing condi ions and sense o well-being. This esea ch is
consis en wi h ea lie indings showing ha a inancial c isis adds a non-negligible cos o
indi idual well-being, and ha mac o-economic mo emen s s ongly in luence pe cei ed
happiness on a na ional basis (Di Tella e al.,2003;Mon agnoli & Mo o,2014). Fu he mo e,
Dix-Ca nei o and Ko ak (2015) disco e ed ha he long- e m eco e y o employmen
a es a e an economic shock is ully dependen on he de elopmen o he in o mal sec o .
This sugges s ha in o mal employmen keeps indi iduals om engaging in c ime. I also
indica es ha labou egula ions, which educe in o mali y and inc ease unemploymen ,
can in ensi y he le el o c ime ela ed o an economic c isis. S ill, local c ises ha cause
a educ ion in labou demand may a ec c ime in di e en ways, such as by dec easing
go e nmen e enues and a ec ing he supply o public goods (Dix-Ca nei o e al.,2017).
Adm. Sci. 2025,15, 123 6 o 16
I is hypo hesized ha socie ies wi h high social us and less co up ion can handle
a c isis be e han hei coun e pa s. By con as , high co up ion and low social us
in ensi y he c isis du a ion. Se e al esea ch indings ag ee ha social us plays a key ole
in he de elopmen o a coun y (Ro hs ein,2005). A high le el o social us is posi i ely
co ela ed wi h s onge democ a ic ins i u ions and highe economic g ow h and nega i ely
co ela ed wi h he le el o c ime and co up ion (Bjø nsko ,2009;Richey,2010;Ro hs ein,
2013). Social us is also oo ed in an hones and inco up go e nmen (Bjø nsko ,2009;
F ei ag & Buhlmann,2005;Ro hs ein,2013). Fo his eason, he cos o con olling economic
agen s is conside ably lowe in high- us communi ies (Uslane ,2002). Mo eo e , social us
educes in e e ence om go e nmen s and encou ages business ansac ions. As a esul ,
in as uc u e and wel a e policies bene i because go e nmen s ha e la ge unds o in es in
hem (G ae & S endsen,2013). We a gue ha social us can coun e ac he consequences
o an economic c isis o a ce ain ex en , because e icien go e nmen s can de ec e o s
as e and can manage challenges be e . Fu he mo e, e e yday businesses may e en ake
ad an age o he c isis o es uc u e hei o ganiza ions, imp o e echnology, and de elop
hei human esou ces. In addi ion, a low le el o co up ion means ha public unds can be
employed mo e op imally o he eco e y o a coun y.
Ne e heless, a lack o us may inc ease he gap be ween ich and poo social g oups
and, mos impo an ly, p omo e co up ion (Uslane ,2012). Coun ies wi h a high le el
o co up ion o en igno e hei po en ial o upli he economy (Sø eide,2016). E idence
also shows ha an economic c isis p esen s se ious challenges o na ional secu i y because
i inc eases c ime le els (Dix-Ca nei o & Ko ak,2015). In addi ion, co up ion educes a
coun y’s abili y o p o ec i s na ional esou ces, which make hem mo e ulne able o
embezzlemen (Kols ad & Wiig,2011). Thus, du ing economic c ises, high co up ion will
inc ease he esen men o he poo social g oups owa ds he eli es and he go e nmen s. In
addi ion, a ec ed ci izens may ake he c isis as an oppo uni y o challenge he go e nmen
and i s managemen o he economy. As a esul , he educed inancial budge ing du ing
an economic c isis is u he es ained o igh en secu i y con ol and o p o ec he co up
go e nmen om public ange and highe c ime a es. These ac o s wo sen he eco e ing
abili ies o na ions and inc ease he du a ion o an economic c isis.
Hypo hesis 1. Social us has a nega i e co ela ion wi h he du a ion ime o an economic c isis.
Hypo hesis 2. Co up ion has a posi i e co ela ion wi h he du a ion ime o an economic c isis.
3. Me hod
3.1. P esen a ion o Da abases
The da ase o social us and co up ion ha we applied came om he Quali y
o Go e nmen (QoG) Ins i u e da abase (h ps://qog.pol.gu.se/da a/da adownloads
(accessed on 20 Decembe 2019)) de eloped by he Uni e si y o Go henbu g. The da abase
comp ises i e da ase s and is eely a ailable om he QoG Ins i u e’s websi e. The mission
o he da abase is o p o ide good go e nance. We exclusi ely wo ked wi h he QoG
s anda d da abase, which is he la ges da ase o he i e and includes almos 2100 a iables
om mo e han 100 da a sou ces.
We also used he Global C ises Da a by Coun y da abase.
1
This da abase includes
da a ela ed o banking, sys emic mal unc ioning, and in la ion c ises measu ed du ing a
pe iod spanning om 1800 o 2016 in mo e han 70 coun ies. The Beha io al and Financial
S abili y (BFFS) p ojec was ounded a Ha a d Business School, and he Global C ises Da a
by Coun y is pa o he BFFS p ojec ’s da abase. The p ojec main ains an ongoing eal- ime
da abase o inancial s abili y indica o s and is a ailable o bo h esea che s and he public.
Adm. Sci. 2025,15, 123 7 o 16
3.2. Analysis Techniques
Ou s udy is based on wo me hods: desc ip i e and econome ic analysis. As a
i s s ep, we pe o m a desc ip i e analysis on a da ase including social us , co up ion,
and economic c isis as a iables. The in en ion o he desc ip i e analysis is o glean insigh
in o whe he he e a e signi ican co ela ions be ween he du a ion o economic c ises and
social us /co up ion. As a second s ep, we apply econome ic echniques o analyse
ou da a. The pu pose o he econome ic analysis is o assess he connec ions be ween
he dependen and independen a iables. Fo he hypo heses, we in oduce a mul iple
eg ession wi h con ol a iables. We selec he con ol a iables o be able o exclude ac o s
ha can signi ican ly a ec he in e p e a ion o he empi ical esul s. In his mission, we
use he so wa e package STATA 14.0 (Woold idge,2016) as a basis o ou analyses.
3.3. S uc u ing o Da a
In Table 1, we compa e he asso men o he o iginal da ase s wi h ou da ase . A e
scaling, we kep all he coun ies and educed he numbe o a iables om 2202 o 9.
Consequen ly, he numbe o obse a ions in ou da ase is educed o ~74% and includes
11,364 obse a ions dis ibu ed ac oss 211 coun ies. Howe e , we collec he da ase om
di e en public sou ces and, consequen ly, some o he a iables may lack obse a ions.
Fu he mo e, we exclude ex eme a iables in he econome ic analysis. The e o e, he
eg essions may di e in he numbe o obse a ions om wha we s a e he e.
Table 1. Downscaling o he da ase .
Numbe o Coun ies
and Te i o ies
Numbe o
Obse a ions
Numbe o
Va iables
O iginal da ase s 211 15,403 2202
Ou da ase 211 11,364 9
Pe cen age 100% 73.78% 0.41%
In addi ion, we c ea ed a dummy a iable o he economic c ises when a leas one c isis
is occu ing in a speci ic yea in a coun y (1 = a leas one c isis in his yea and coun y, 0 = no
c isis in his yea and coun y). The eason o his is o obse e he e ec s on he eg ession
models when he e was a leas one ongoing c isis. Consequen ly, he numbe o obse a ions in
he econome ic analysis is educed o 5112 obse a ions (44.98%). In he ollowing subsec ions,
when no speci ic changes a e men ioned, we make no adjus men s o he a iables.
3.4. Dependen Va iables
Again, he c isis du a ion is he pe iod om he s a o he end o a c isis. In he
Global C ises Da a by Coun y da abase, each c isis—whe he i is ela ed o banking,
sys emic mal unc ioning, o in la ion—has a dummy a iable o when a c isis is occu ing
in a speci ic yea and coun y (1 = c isis, 0 = no c isis). To measu e he c isis du a ion, we
add a dummy a iable o when a leas one o he c ises is occu ing in a speci ic yea in a
coun y. Then, we coun he numbe o consecu i e c isis yea s o measu e he du a ion o
he economic c ises in each coun y. As a esul , we measu e he c isis du a ion in a numbe
o yea s be ween he s a and he end o he c isis. The skewness o he c isis du a ion
a iable is 0.84, which makes i accep able o u he analyses (Geo ge & Malle y,2011).
3.5. Independen Va iables
When people ha e social us , hey pu ai h in one ano he in a socie y. In he QoG
s anda d da abase, social us is epo ed as an index sco e. The index sco e ep esen s
Adm. Sci. 2025,15, 123 8 o 16
an a e age o all coun y–su ey sco es a ailable wi hin each coun y–yea obse a ion.
These sco es ange om 0 (lowes le el o us ) o 100 (highes le el o us ).
A highe le el o social us is co ela ed wi h s onge democ a ic ins i u ions and
highe economic g ow h. These ac o s a e he ounda ions o economic equali y (Bjø nsko ,
2009;Richey,2010). Addi ionally, social us a ises om economic equali y and is also
a p oduc o equali y o oppo uni y and inco up go e nmen s (Ro hs ein,2005). This
indica es ha a high le el o equali y in u n will inc ease he le el o social us o ice
e sa (Uslane ,2012). Since he economic g ow h and equali y gap o each na ion a e
changing cons an ly, he social us index should be dynamic in na u e.
Co up ion is de ined as he abuse o public powe o p i a e gain. We use he
Bayesian Co up ion Index (BCI), ob ained om he QoG s anda d da abase, o ep e-
sen he co up ion le el. The BCI is a composi e index o he pe cei ed o e all le el o
co up ion and anges be ween 0 (e e yone ag ees he e is no co up ion a all) and 100
(co up ion is as bad as i can ge ).
S udies ha e shown ha low-income coun ies seem o su e mo e om co up ion
han hei weal hie coun e pa s (Sø eide,2016). Fo ha eason, we belie e ha he se e -
i y o co up ion ends o decline as na ions s i e o imp o e hei economic condi ions.
On he o he hand, i also implies ha , when he economic si ua ion de e io a es, he le el
o co up ion will inc ease as a esul .
Addi ionally, co up ion is ega ded as one o he main obs acles o he ad ancemen o
economy and socie y (Sø eide,2016). As se ious as i may sound, co up ion hinde s economic
g ow h and social de elopmen . This is because co up agen s abuse hei poli ical powe by
essen ially ading public bene i s o pe sonal gain. Almos any coun y in he wo ld ealizes
hese p oblems and ies o elimina e, o a leas educe, he le el o co up ion. Consequen ly,
go e nmen s keep imp o ing policies and laws agains co up ion. The capabili y o hese
laws and policies depends on a ious ac o s, such as he independence o he cou s, as well
as he go e nmen s’ anspa ency and he ins i u ions’ e ec i eness. Ne e heless, hese laws
and policies a e bound o ha e some e ec on co up ion le els o e ime.
Fo hese easons, i is sa e o us o conclude ha co up ion and social us a e
no s a ic bu dynamic in na u e. This is impo an o keep in mind, since neglec ing he
dynamic aspec s in he analysis may lead o a speci ica ion e o in he eg essions.
3.6. Con ol Va iables
Popula ion capabili ies can a ec how well he ci izens o a coun y handle challenges
and how well hey a e able o p ocess news om economic c ises. To measu e popula ion
capabili ies, we use he Human De elopmen Index (HDI) ob ained om he QoG da abases.
The HDI is a composi e measu e ha cap u es he a e age achie emen s in h ee essen ial
dimensions o human de elopmen : heal h, knowledge, and s anda d o li ing.
Equali y has he po en ial o a ec he le el o social us and co up ion. Highe le els
o inequali y may c ea e dis us among di e en social classes and wo sen he le el o social
us . To be able o measu e equali y, we use he Gini index ob ained om he QoG da abases.
The Gini index measu es he deg ee o inequali y in he dis ibu ion o amily income by
coun y. The mo e equal a coun y’s income dis ibu ion, he lowe is he Gini index (Gini = 0).
The mo e unequal a coun y’s income dis ibu ion is, he highe is he Gini index (Gini = 100).
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p o ides a ime se ies o each coun y uni . We limi he eg ession analysis only o pe iods
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au ho (s) and con ibu o (s) and no o MDPI and/o he edi o (s). MDPI and/o he edi o (s) disclaim esponsibili y o any inju y o
people o p ope y esul ing om any ideas, me hods, ins uc ions o p oduc s e e ed o in he con en .
