Forest resource management, refugee integration, and food security in rural Zambia: balancing sustainability and equity

Ruesink, B igi e; G onau, S e en
A icle — Published Ve sion
Fo es esou ce managemen , e ugee in eg a ion, and
ood secu i y in u al Zambia: balancing sus ainabili y and
equi y
Food Secu i y
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Sp inge Na u e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ruesink, B igi e; G onau, S e en (2025) : Fo es esou ce managemen , e ugee
in eg a ion, and ood secu i y in u al Zambia: balancing sus ainabili y and equi y, Food Secu i y,
ISSN 1876-4525, Sp inge Ne he lands, Do d ech , Vol. 17, Iss. 5, pp. 1273-1299,
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RESEARCH
Fo es esou ce managemen , e ugee in eg a ion, and ood secu i y
in u al Zambia: balancing sus ainabili y andequi y
B igi eRuesink1,2 · S e enG onau1
Recei ed: 8 Ma ch 2024 / Accep ed: 24 Ap il 2025 / Published online: 18 June 2025
© The Au ho (s) 2025
Abs ac
A ica’s ising e ugee numbe slead o in eg a ion inc easinglybeing eplaced by epa ia ion. In es iga ing he long- e m
e ec s o e ugees on hos a eas is c ucial o sus ainable in eg a ion, as he popula ion inc ease pu s p essu e on limi ed
na u al esou ces. While exis ing li e a u e add esses he en i onmen al impac s o e ugees, beha io al models a ely ocus
on his issue. This s udy uses an Agen -Based Model o simula e in e ac ions be ween e ugees, hos s, and o es esou ces.
The objec i e is o (1) quan i y he impac o e ugee se lemen s and hos communi ies on o es esou ces, (2) assess he
e ec s o a ying e ugee se lemen sizes on sus ainable o es u iliza ion and ood secu i y, and (3) e alua e how labo
coope a ion in luences de o es a ion. The modelapplies a 2018 da ase om a e ugee hos ing communi y in u al Zambia,
including 277 households, and comp ehensi e supplemen al seconda y da a.Resul s show ha o es educ ion is d i en by
he need o i ewood and land o e ugee se lemen s, signi ican ly educing he o es a ea. Re ealed de o es a ion h ea ens
sus ainable o es ecosys ems and impac s ood secu i y by diminishing access o wild ui s and edible insec s, c ucial o
local die s. Coope a ion be ween e ugees and hos communi ies in slash-and-bu n a ming empo a ily boos ood p oduc-
ion,bu accele a es o es educ ion. This leads o long- e m esou ce deple ion and compe i ion. Highligh eddynamics
show ha , i unmanaged, e ugee in luxes can exace ba e ood insecu i y in u al e ugee se ings. Ag o o es y and policy
in e en ions ocusing on sus ainable land use, p ope y igh s, and al e na i e ene gy sou ces a e essen ial o balance e ugee
needs wi h o es p ese a ion and ood secu i y in hos communi ies.
Keywo ds Agen -based modeling· Re ugees· De o es a ion· Food secu i y· Zambia· Sus ainable de elopmen
1 Backg ound
By he end o 2023, he numbe o o cibly displaced indi-
iduals wo ldwide eached 117.3 million, including 43.4
million e ugees, e lec ing he g owing challenges o o ced
mig a ion d i en by con lic , economic ins abili y, and cli-
ma e change (UNHCR, 2024). The ongoing Uk aine Wa
signi ican ly con ibu ed o his inc ease. Unde s anding he
impac o hese mo emen s equi es no only an analysis
o he coun ies o o igin bu also he hos coun ies, many
o which a e al eady ulne able (Ba man, 2020; Khaled,
2021; Schneide heinze & Lücke, 2020). O he 32.5 million
e ugees in mid-2022, 7.1 million we e hos ed by he leas
de eloped coun ies, including 783,000 in Sou he n A ica,
whe e agile condi ions exace ba e in eg a ion challenges
such as ood secu i y (UNHCR, 2022a, 2023a).
Zambia plays a signi ican ole in he e ugee con ex ,
hos ing a ound 71,000 e ugees, o abou one- en h o he
o al numbe o e ugees in Sub-Saha an A ica (UNHCR,
2023b). The coun y aces high le els o po e y and ood
insecu i y and depends on ex e nal aid o suppo ci izens
and e ugees (WFP, 2023). In ecen yea s, he COVID-
19 pandemic and clima e change ha e u he wo sened
hesi ua ion (WFP, 2023). While a long mig a ion his o y
connec s he Democ a ic Republic o he Congo (DRC) and
Zambia (Cla k, 2002; La me , 2016; Mkandawi e & Daka,
2018), mo e ecen con lic s led o a signi ican in lux o
e ugees om he DRC o Zambia in 2017 (UNHCR, 2018;
Vlassen oo & Ve weijen, 2017).
* B igi e Ruesink
[email protected] e .de
1 Ins i u e o En i onmen al Economics andWo ld T ade,
Leibniz Uni e si y Hanno e , Königswo he Pla z 1,
30167Hanno e , Ge many
2 Ins i u ü Umwel ökonomik und Wel handel,
Leibniz Uni e si y Hanno e , Königswo he Pla z 1,
30167Hanno e , Ge many
1274 B.Ruesink, S.G onau
In esponse, he Man apala e ugee se lemen was imple-
men ed in ea ly 2018 in No he n Zambia, nea he DRC bo -
de . The se lemen , hos ing o e 18,000 e ugees, b ough
inc eased a en ion and aid o he a ea, bene i ing bo h e u-
gees and he local hos communi y (UNHCR, 2018, 2021b,
c, 2022b; WFP, 2023; WFP & UNHCR, 2021). Wi h 66%
o e ugees no in ending o e u n o he DRC (UNHCR,
2021b), in eg a ion in o he hos communi y is essen ial.
The se lemen was es ablished wi hin he Comp ehensi e
Re ugee Response F amewo k (CRRF), wi h suppo om
na ional and in e na ional o ganiza ions o p o ide ag icul-
u al assis ance and se ices o e ugee and hos households,
os e ing in eg a ion in o daily li e and economic ac i i ies
like a ming (Mwansa, 2022; UNHCR, 2019; WFP, 2023;
WFP & UNHCR, 2021). This s udy ocuses on he socio-
en i onmen al dynamics o he Man apala egion, a emo e
o es a ea.
Food secu i y has become a signi ican conce n in Man-
apala, whe e a 2020 join needs assessmen by he Wo ld
Food P og amme (WFP) and he Uni ed Na ions High
Commissione o Re ugees (UNHCR) e ealed ha 44%
o households exhibi poo o bo de line ood consump-
ion (UNHCR & WFP, 2020). Al hough he epo inds
Zambia’s ood a ailabili y a he na ional le el su icien o
mee ma ke demands, his did no ansla e o all communi-
ies. Smallholde a me s, pa icula ly e ugee smallhold-
e s, aced esou ce limi a ions ha hinde ed hei abili y
o cul i a e a ailable land, con ibu ing o localized ood
sca ci y. Mos households elied on ma ke pu chases and in-
kind ood assis ance o mee hei needs, wi h some e ugee
households engaging in labo - o - ood exchanges (UNHCR
& WFP, 2020).
Zambia’s dependence on ag icul u e con ibu es o high
de o es a ion a es, a e aging 0.245% annually om 2000
un il 2014 (Republic o Zambia, 2016), wi h e en highe
a es o 0.91% om 2015 o 2016 eco ded in he Nchelenge
dis ic , whe e Man apala is loca ed (Global Fo es Wa ch,
2023). Gi en he popula ion g ow h a e o 3.6% in
he espec i e Luapula P o ince (Zambia S a is ics Agency,
2022) and he dependency on o es esou ces, subs an ial
p essu e on he en i onmen is exace ba ed by he in lux o
e ugees (Webe e al., 2023). Slash-and-bu n ag icul u e,
a common p ac ice in Nchelenge, u he con ibu es o
de o es a ion when pe o med unsus ainably, wi h ash om
bu ned ees used as e ilize o en ich nu ien -deple ed
soils (Kaluba e al., 2021). The p edominan Miombo wood-
lands, which p o ide i ewood, cha coal, wild ui s, and
edible insec s (impo an o local ood sys ems), a e pa -
icula ly a ec ed (B ocke ho e al., 2017; Ickowi z e al.,
2021; Syampungani e al., 2009). The deg ada ion o hese
o es s di ec ly unde mines ood secu i y by educing he
a ailabili y o o es -de i ed oods ha supplemen die s and
sus ain li elihoods in Man apala (G onau e al., 2019).
Re ugee se lemen s can b ing bo h bene i s and chal-
lenges o hos communi ies. On he posi i e side, he p es-
ence o e ugees o en a ac s in e na ional aid, imp o ing
in as uc u e, such as schools and heal h clinics (Bilgili
e al., 2019; UNHCR & WFP, 2020; Zhou e al., 2022).
These imp o emen s s eng hen he hos communi y’s
esilience and enhance ood secu i y by inc easing access
o essen ial se ices (UNHCR & WFP, 2020). Addi ionally,
he in e ac ion be ween e ugees and hos s can s imula e
local economic ac i i ies and build us (Alix-Ga cia e al.,
2019; d’E ico e al., 2022; Faj h e al., 2019; Kim e al.,
2022). Howe e , he bene i s caused by e ugee a i als a e
no always sus ainable. The sudden inc ease in popula ion
caused by e ugee in luxes pu s signi ican p essu e on na u-
al esou ces, including wa e , we lands, and o es s (Be -
na d e al., 2020; Bildi ici e al., 2023; Jaa a e al., 2020).
Lange e al. (2015) iden i y he ini ial phase o cons uc ion
and he disagg ega ion o he se lemen as c i ical pe iods
o de o es a ion. Once se led, e ugees’ ene gy demands,
pa icula ly o i ewood, exace ba e ege a ion loss nea se -
lemen s (K anz e al., 2015). Ag icul u al expansion also
plays a ole, wi h Lange e al. (2015) associa ing de o -
es a ion wi h land con e sion, while Mays ad e al. (2020)
obse e shi s om o es s o c opland wi hou a clea co -
ela ion o e ugee numbe s. O he s udies, such as hose by
Makunga and Misana (2017), highligh se lemen g ow h,
wood ex ac ion, and ag icul u al ac i i ies as p ima y de o -
es a ion d i e s. No ably, he li e a u e shows mixed esul s,
wi h some s udies epo ing posi i e e ec s on ege a ion
nea e ugee se lemen s (K anz e al., 2015; Salemi, 2021),
while o he s link popula ion densi y o o es loss (Phi i
e al., 2019; Richa dson e al., 2021).
An impo an aspec o hese socio-en i onmen al
dynamics in e ugee-hos ing con ex s is he issue o land
igh s, which play a cen al ole in esou ce managemen
and social cohesion. In Zambia, insecu e p ope y igh scan
lead mig an s o clea alloca ed land en i ely, e en when
hey do no in end o cul i a e all o i , exace ba ing ensions
wi h he hos communi y (Un uh e al., 2005). When hos s
pe cei e hei p ope y igh s as insecu e o hei access
o a esou ce as es ic ed due o he p esence o e ugees,
hey may be less mo i a ed o manage hei land sus ain-
ably (Un uh e al., 2005; Vallino, 2014). E en when land
use igh s a e clea ly de ined, hey may no e ec i ely p e-
en de o es a ion o esou ce con lic s. Fe e Velasco e al.
(2023) epo ha only 16% o Zambian s akeholde s pe -
cei e land use igh s and p o ec ed a eas as p ac ical ools
agains de o es a ion, e lec ing a b oade skep icism abou
hei p ac ical impac .
The CRRF, adop ed by 193 UN membe s, emphasizes
he need o in eg a ed e ugee managemen app oaches
ha add ess immedia e needs and long- e m impac s on
hos communi ies, pa icula ly ood secu i y (UNHCR,
1275
Fo es esou ce managemen , e ugee in eg a ion, and ood secu i y in u al Zambia: balancing sus ainabili y and equi y
2001–2023). Coun ies, such as Zambia, ha e implemen ed
he CRRF o p omo e sus ainable e ugee-hos ela ionships,
ocusing on du able solu ions ha bene i bo h g oups (Ca -
cio o & Fe a o, 2020; Da e & Abebe, 2018). Howe e ,
in eg a ion in SSA o en aces challenges, including esou ce
compe i ion o essen ials like land and i ewood, pa icu-
la ly du ing he ea ly phases o e ugee a i als (Ba man,
2020; Lange e al., 2015). Such compe i ion can exace -
ba e ensions and c ea e nega i e pe cep ions o e ugees,
complica ing in eg a ion e o s (G onau & Ruesink, 2021;
Skinne & Go ied, 2017; Whi ake & Gie sch, 2015). The
g owing ocus on e ugee in eg a ion highligh s he need o
be e unde s and he ole o hos communi ies in manag-
ing en i onmen al and esou ce challenges, which emains
unde explo ed (Phillimo e, 2020).
The con inuously ising numbe o e ugees wo ldwide
(UNHCR, 2022a) and ongoing clima e change (IPCC, 2023)
emphasize he u gency o de eloping long- e m solu ions o
e ugee si ua ions. Since e ugees o en emain in hos coun-
ies o ex ended pe iods, ypically 10 o 15 yea s (De ic-
o & Do, 2017), epa ia ion alone is insu icien . Ins ead,
coope a i e and e ec i e esou ce managemen by e ugees
and hos s is c i ical o os e ing sus ainable esou ce use and
imp o ing ood secu i y o bo h g oups (UNHCR & WFP,
2020). Ini ia i es such as e o es a ion p ojec s and imp o ed
cooks o e p og ams aim o add ess hese con lic s while os-
e ing coope a ion (Tabi Eckebil e al., 2022). Howe e , hei
success equi es a holis ic app oach ha balances he needs
o e ugees and hos s, p e en ing well-in en ioned aid om
unin en ionally ha ming local popula ions (Khaled, 2021).
Agen -Based Models (ABMs) ha e been widely applied in
e ugee esea ch o simula e mig a ion dynamics (Collins &
F ydenlund, 2016; En wisle e al., 2020; G oen e al., 2019;
Hébe e al., 2018; Suleimeno a & G oen, 2020; Vanhille
Campos e al., 2019) and pos -a i al dynamics in hos com-
muni ies, pa icula ly in Eu ope (A aya e al., 2021; Boshui-
jzen- an Bu ken e al., 2020; Paolillo & Jage , 2020), as well
as o s udy disease sp ead wi hin e ugee se lemen s (C ooks
& Hailegio gis, 2014; Gilman e al., 2020). In de o es a ion
esea ch, ABMs ha e been used o explo e he impac s o land-
use decisions (Mülle -Hansen e al., 2019; Zhou e al., 2022),
li elihood s a egies (Ki uki e al., 2019), and policy in e en-
ions on o es esou ces (Richa dson e al., 2021; on Essen
& Lambin, 2023). Webe e al. (2023) ini ia ed an impo an
explo a ion o he impac o e ugee se lemen s on o es
s ocks. Howe e , hei s udy highligh s he need o a mo e
de ailed examina ion o hese dynamics. Ou s udy b idges his
gap by expanding on Webe e al.’s wo k by a ying se lemen
sizes and inco po a ing labo coope a ion be ween he e u-
gee and hos communi ies. This app oach allows us o assess
he sus ainabili y o se lemen capaci ies o o es esou ce
p ese a ion and examine he socio-en i onmen al e ec s o
economic in e ac ions be ween hese g oups.
In his s udy, an ABM is de eloped o analyze he e ec
o e ugees on hei hos en i onmen . I is based on a da a-
se collec ed in he e ugee-hos ing communi y o Man apala
in 2018 and supplemen a y seconda y da a. The seconda y
da a includes desk esea ch and in e iew ou comes wi h he
local o es y depa men o speci y beha io al ules, o es
composi ion, and ee eg ow h. Man apala is an ideal se ing
o explo e he in e play be ween e ugee popula ions, na u al
esou ce managemen , and ood secu i y. I can illus a e how
e ugee in luxes can wo sen ulne abili ies o d i e de elop-
men h ough success ul in eg a ion. This s udy adds o cu -
en esea ch by in es iga ing he causes o de o es a ion in
he e ugee con ex h ough a bo om-up app oach, whe e
we model indi idual beha io s and in e ac ions o simula e
he complex sys em o de o es a ion dynamics. I p o ides a
base model ha can be ex ended by coun e measu es o simu-
la e hei e ec i eness be o e implemen a ion. Fo example,
he p omo ion o sus ainable ag icul u al p ac ices (ag o o -
es y), de elopmen o al e na i e ene gy sou ces (p o ision o
imp o ed cooking de ices o implemen a ion o sola ene gy
p ojec s), e o es a ion ini ia i es, o s eng hening land use
and o es managemen policies (Deißle e al., 2024; Fe e
Velasco e al., 2023; Kinyili, 2022; Luzi e al., 2019; Njenga
e al., 2021). The model isualizes how di e en popula-
ion sizes, slash-and-bu n ag icul u e, and labo coope a ion
be ween e ugees and hos s a ec he de elopmen o o es
co e in u al Zambia. By isola ing i ewood demand as a p i-
ma y de o es a ion d i e , he s udy o e s nuanced insigh s
in o sus ainable esou ce managemen s a egies ha add ess
o es deple ion while enhancing ood secu i y in e ugee-
hos ing communi ies.
This esea ch add esses h ee key ques ions: (1) To wha
ex en do e ugee se lemen s and hos communi ies a ec
o es esou ces in sub-Saha an A ican coun ies? (2) How
do a ying e ugee se lemen sizes impac o es esou ce
deple ion and ood secu i y in u al hos communi ies? (3)
To wha deg ee does coope a ion be ween e ugees and
hos communi ies in ag icul u al ac i i ies in luence he
de elopmen o o es co e s? The pape is s uc u ed as
ollows: Chap e wo desc ibes he da a and ABM. In chap-
e h ee, he model esul s a e p esen ed and discussed in
chap e ou , including limi a ions and u u e di ec ions. The
pape concludes in chap e i e wi h a summa y o he new
esea chinsigh s and u u e wo ks.
2 Ma e ials andme hods
2.1 Da a
The p ima y da a o his s udy o igina ed om a census
su ey conduc ed in Ap il 2018 as pa o he "Food Secu i y
in u al Zambia" (FoSeZa) p ojec . The su ey co e ed 277
1276 B.Ruesink, S.G onau
hos households ac oss eigh illages wi hin a 10 km ange o
he Man apala e ugee se lemen in no he nZambia(Lua-
pula P o ince, Nchelenge Dis ic ). A s uc u ed ques ion-
nai e collec ed in o ma ion on household demog aphics,
ag icul u al p ac ices, land use, o es esou ce u iliza ion,
and in e ac ions wi h e ugees, supplemen ed wi h geo-
g aphic illage coo dina es o spa ial con ex . Addi ional
da a sou ces we e u ilized o supplemen he da ase . Da a
om G onau and Ruesink (2021), ILO (2011), UNHCR
(2020), and WFP and UNHCR (2021) in o med household
beha io pa e ns. T ee composi ion and eg ow h beha -
io we e modeled using da a om Mon o e al. (2021).
In e iews wi h he local o es y depa men o he egion
p o ided u he insigh s in o o es managemen p ac ices.
A desc ip i e analysis o he collec ed da ase es ablished
baseline condi ions o hos communi y dependence on o es
esou ces, labo needs, and e ugee in e ac ions. Key a ia-
bles analyzed included i ewood consump ion, land size, cul-
i a ion, and se lemen con ac a eas. All his in o ma ion
p o ide insigh s in o p e-se lemen condi ions and esou ce
dependencies. The analysis included he calcula ion o key
a iables'mean alues, s anda d de ia ions, and anges.
2.2 Agen ‑based Modeldesign andimplemen a ion
2.2.1 Co e p ocesses andpu pose
This s udy employed an Agen -Based Model (ABM) o cap-
u e he complex e ec s o e ugee and hos communi ies on
sha ed o es esou ces. ABM simula es household beha io
and agg ega e e ec s on esou ce sus ainabili y, enabling
he explo a ion o eme gen phenomena c i ical o unde -
s anding socio-en i onmen al dynamics and policy deci-
sions (Gilbe , 2019; Heckbe e al., 2010; Squazzoni, 2012;
Wilensky & Rand, 2015). Implemen ed in Ne Logo 6.3.0
(Wilensky, 1999), he ABM ollowed he ODD (O e iew,
Design concep s, De ails) p o ocol (G imm e al., 2006,
2010, 2020) o anspa ency and ep oducibili y. The en i e
p o ocol is p o ided in he supplemen a y in o ma ion.
The pu pose o his ABM was o explo e how popula-
ion dynamics, including gene al g ow h and e ugee in lows,
a ec o es esou ce sus ainabili y in u al Zambia o e h ee
decades. The model in es iga es wo co e dynamics: com-
pe i ion e sus coope a ion and en i onmen al deg ada ion
e sus sus ainable use. Re ugee in luxes inc ease esou ce
demand, po en ially causing con lic s o e land and i e-
wood, while coope a i e p ac ices can mi iga e compe i ion
and p omo e sus ainabili y (UNHCR & WFP, 2020). The
model simula ed hese dynamics h ough i ewood collec ion,
slash-and-bu n ag icul u e, and labo coope a ion, p o iding
insigh s in o e ugee-hos impac s on ood secu i y and o es
sus ainabili y. The ABM add essed hese p ocesses h ough
h ee key ques ions: (1) How do e ugee se lemen s and
hos communi ies a ec o es esou ces? (2) How do a y-
ing e ugee se lemen sizes impac o es esou ce deple ion
and ood secu i y? (3) How does labo coope a ion in luence
de o es a ion? Recognizing ha high popula ion densi y can
lead o unsus ainable o es use (Phi i e al., 2019; Richa dson
e al., 2021), he model simula ed hese dynamics based on
mic o-p ocesses, p o iding insigh s in o e ugee-hos impac s
on ood secu i y and o es sus ainabili y.
2.2.2 Key componen s andse up
The ABM de eloped o his s udy cap u ed he complex
socio-en i onmen al dynamics be ween e ugee and hos
communi ies in Man apala, Zambia. As illus a ed in Fig.1,
he model was s uc u ed a ound h ee p ima y componen s:
e ugee and hos communi ies, na u al esou ces, and ins i-
u ional se ings, collec i ely ep esen ing esou ce use,
coope a ion, and en i onmen al sus ainabili y dynamics.
Bo h communi ies we e modeled as agen s, each ep esen -
ing a household wi h dis inc cha ac e is ics, beha io s, and
esou ce needs. Fo a de ailed lis o all assump ions made
in he model se up and hei jus i ica ion, see Table3 in
he Appendix. Hos households we e pa ame e ized using
p ima y su ey da a on demog aphics, land use p ac ices,
and esou ce dependencies, supplemen ed by li e a u e-
based assump ions (G onau & Ruesink, 2021; ILO, 2011;
Webe e al., 2023). Re ugee se lemen a eas we e designed
o e lec de o es a ion om housing and esou ce use,
wi h a baseline e e ence size o housing o 8,000 hec-
a es accommoda ing 25,000 e ugees (UNHCR, 2020;
WFP & UNHCR, 2021). Scena ios adjus ed hese zones o
explo e a ying popula ion sizes. Re ugee households we e
assigned i ewood demands based on he hos da ase (Cla k,
2002; La me , 2016; Vlassen oo & Ve weijen, 2017) and
we e placed wi hin clea ed se lemen zones. S ochas ici y
accoun ed o household o ma ion and dis ibu ion a iabil-
i y wi hin he illages and beha io al dynamics.
Na u al esou ces we e u he conside ed, pa icula ly
o es s, which bo h g oups ely on o su i al and li eli-
hood. Fo es s we e modeled as wo-dimensional g ids o
13,000 hec a es di ided in o 200 × 260 plo s, each 0.25
hec a es, ep esen ing he s udy a ea (G onau e al., 2018).
Plo s we e pa ame e ized wi h ee age and densi y using
da a om Mon o e al. (2021) and Webe e al. (2023).
Baseline condi ions we e es ablished by simula ing 15 yea s
o p e-se lemen slash-and-bu n ag icul u e, e lec ing adi-
ional land-use p ac ices in Man apala (Kaluba e al., 2021).
Randomness in ee densi y ac oss plo s ensu ed spa ial a i-
abili y and annual upda es o ee g ow h and ha es ing
simula ed dynamic o es in e ac ions.
The inal aspec o he ins i u ional se ing media es
esou ce access and in luences coope a ion o con lic

1277
Fo es esou ce managemen , e ugee in eg a ion, and ood secu i y in u al Zambia: balancing sus ainabili y and equi y
be ween e ugees and hos communi ies. P ope y igh s
assigned hos households wi h owne ship o speci ic plo s,
es ic ing access o p i a ely owned o se lemen a eas.
Hos households con inued claiming nea plo s as hei own
un il hey eached he numbe o owned plo s indica ed in
he su ey. They could hi e e ugee labo , e lec ing coope a-
i e in e ac ions. S ochas ici y in coope a ion p obabili ies
ensu ed a iabili y in agen decisions, cap u ing he unp e-
dic abili y o eal-wo ld beha io s.
2.2.3 Cons uc ion andagen dynamics
The model simula ed long- e m socio-en i onmen al
dynamics o e 30 yea s using disc e e annual s eps (Webe
e al., 2023). An impo an design concep o he model was
he eliance on p ede ined, ule-based in e ac ions be ween
households and o es esou ces. Figu e2 illus a es he
annual decision-making p ocesses cen al o he ABM’s
depic ion o household beha io . Please e e o he ull
ODD p o ocol o a de ailed explana ion o he sub-p o-
cesses. The model upda ed en i onmen al condi ions a he
s a o each simula ion yea , including ee g ow h (age and
densi y) and eco e y om p e ious slash-and-bu n ac i i-
ies, ollowing ecological pa ame e s based on seconda y
da a (Mon o e al., 2021; Webe e al., 2023).
All households hen assessed hei annual i ewood
demands based on esou ce s ocks and indi idual cha ac-
e is ics. Re ugee and hos households ollowed he s eps
depic ed in he i s pa o Fig.2 o mee hei i ewood
demand. They sensed he a ailabili y o ma u e ees (aged
o e 15 yea s) and iden i ied accessible pa ches (ma u e ees
a ailable and he pa ch does no belong o ano he house-
hold) wi h he highes ee densi y. I su icien ees we e
a ailable, households in e ac ed wi h he plo by cu ing
Fig. 1 Concep ual ounda ion
illus a ing in e ac ions be ween
hos and e ugee communi-
ies and hei in luence on
en i onmen al dynamics. The
igu e depic s key ac o s such
as esou ce compe i ion, labo
coope a ion, and se lemen size
and hei key impac on o es
esou ces
1278 B.Ruesink, S.G onau
Fig. 2 Annual decision-making
p ocesses o hos and e ugee
households in i ewood collec-
ion and ag icul u al ac i i-
ies. The igu e illus a es key
decisions made in he ABM
ega ding i ewood collec ion
equency, ag icul u al land use,
and labo coope a ion. A ows
ep esen decision pa hways.
Diamonds indica e deci-
sion poin s, while ec angles
desc ibe ac ions
1279
Fo es esou ce managemen , e ugee in eg a ion, and ood secu i y in u al Zambia: balancing sus ainabili y and equi y
he demanded numbe o ees and ese ing hei demand
o ze o. All ma u e ees we e ha es ed i esou ces we e
insu icien , and he unme demand was educed acco d-
ingly. Mul iple households could access and in e ac wi h
he same pa ch annually wi hou spa ial limi a ion. P ope y
igh s es ic ed i ewood collec ion o owned plo s o com-
mon o es a eas, consis en ac oss all simula ions. I i e-
wood demands emained unme a e 104 collec ion a emp s
( wice weekly), his unme demand was eco ded, acking
esou ce insecu i y and highligh ing households s uggling
o mee basic needs.
A e all i ewood collec ion ac i i ies we e comple ed,
hos households pe o med he s eps indica ed in he second
pa o Fig.2. Each hos household decided whe he o hi e
e ugee labo o o e come ag icul u al cons ain s based
on a p obabili y ac o . This p obabili y was in luenced by
ac o s such as he household’s p e ious in e ac ions wi h
he e ugee se lemen (whe he posi i e o nega i e), he
household head’s age and educa ion, p oximi y o he e u-
gee se lemen , and he household’s well-being compa ed o
he p e ious yea (Gengo e al., 2018; G onau & Ruesink,
2021). Households adap ed hei slash-and-bu n beha io
a e hi ing e ugee labo , expanding cul i a ion by he cul i-
a ed a ea pe wo king-age household membe (ILO, 2011).
Howe e , labo coope a ion only inc eased desi ed cul i a-
ion and no o al land owne ship, limi ing i s easibili y i
land esou ces we e insu icien . Finally, he hos households
in e ac ed wi h plo s by slash-and-bu n ag icul u e, clea -
ing he desi ed numbe o plo s (i accessible) and aking
home a p ede ined amoun o i ewood. Plo s we e a ail-
able o slash-and-bu n ag icul u e i hey belonged o he
household (i.e., owned) and we e no in he cul i a ion o
allow phase. The model inco po a ed media ed in e ac ions
h ough esou ce compe i ion, which in ensi ied as esou ces
became sca ce . To conclude he yea ly cycle, popula ion
g ow h was simula ed a a a e o 3.6%, based on da a om
Luapula P o ince (Zambia S a is ics Agency, 2022).
2.2.4 Scena ios
The model e alua ed mul iple scena ios o analyze he
socio-en i onmen al dynamics o e ugee-hos in e ac ions
and hei impac on o es esou ces. Table1 p o ides an
o e iew o hese scena ios de ined by a ia ions in key
ac o s, including he p esence o a e ugee se lemen , he
numbe o e ugees, and he inclusion o exclusion o slash-
and-bu n ag icul u e o labo coope a ion. Fo example, he
“Medium—S&B” scena io simula ed a e ugee se lemen o
5,000 e ugees, u ilizing a e ugee se lemen a ea o 1,600
hec a es, wi h slash-and-bu n ag icul u e bu no labo coop-
e a ion. This adap abili y allowed o a bo om-up pe spec-
i e, explo ing “wha -i ” scena ios and assessing po en ial
ou comes unde di e en con igu a ions. The insigh s gained
p o ide a obus basis o u u e policy decisions o balance
esou ce sus ainabili y and e ugee-hos dynamics.
2.3 Model ou pu s and alida ion
The p ima y model ou pu was he o al emaining ee num-
be s e lec ing de o es a ion le els, which is essen ial o
unde s anding he en i onmen al consequences o esou ce
use. Ou pu s also included unme i ewood demands, o e -
ing insigh s in o condi ions ha os e sus ainable p ac ices
o exace ba e compe i ion. A key eme gen phenomenon
is he “ agedy o he commons” (Ha din, 1968), whe e
a ional sho - e m ac ions by households lead o o e use
and e en ual deple ion o esou ces. This ou come a ose
as households, ollowing p ede ined ules, pu sued hei
goals wi hou coo dina ed esou ce managemen , leading
o esou ce sca ci y and exclusion om use. By simula ing
Table 1 O e iew o he
simula ed model scena ios
The able summa izes key cha ac e is ics o he scena ios, including he p esence o a e ugee se lemen ,
he numbe o e ugees, he use o slash-and-bu n ag icul u e, and he op ion o labo coope a ion
Scena io Re ugee se le-
men
Numbe o
e ugees
Slash-and-bu n
ag icul u e
Labo
coope a-
ion
Base—S&B No 0Yes No
Base—No S&B No 0No No
Small—S&B Yes 2,500 Yes No
Medium—S&B Yes 5,000 Yes No
La ge—S&B Yes 10,000 Yes No
Small—No S&B Yes 2,500 No No
Medium—No S&B Yes 5,000 No No
La ge—No S&B Yes 10,000 No No
Small—Labo Coope a ion Yes 2,500 Yes Yes
Medium—Labo Coope a ion Yes 5,000 Yes Yes
La ge—Labo Coope a ion Yes 10,000 Yes Yes
1280 B.Ruesink, S.G onau
o es s as common-pool esou ces (Os om, 2019), he
model highligh ed he isk o o e use and i s implica ions
o ood secu i y. Unlike models ha ex apola e om pas
da a, his ABM used s uc u al knowledge o p ojec u u e
scena ios ha di e signi ican ly om pas obse a ions.
The model’s eliabili y was ensu ed by unning mul iple
simula ions wi h di e en andom seeds, e i ying consis -
ency despi e inhe en andomness. To ensu e he obus ness
o he model, alida ion agains empi ical da a ocused on
h ee key pa e ns: (1) he posi i e e ec s o slash-and-bu n
ag icul u e on soil composi ion and ee densi y, (2) he
gene al and localized de o es a ion a e, and (3) inc eased
de o es a ion a ound e ugee se lemen s. These alida ion
s eps aligned wi h he KIA p o ocol (T oos e al., 2023) o
ensu e obus ness and eliabili y. Du ing model cons uc-
ion, key pa ame e s and s uc u al assump ions we e sys-
ema ically a ied, including e ugee se lemen size ( om
no se lemen o 10,000 esiden s), he inclusion o slash-
and-bu n ag icul u e, and labo coope a ion. These es s
e ealed scena io-speci ic ou comes consis en wi h heo-
e ical and empi ical expec a ions, demons a ing he mod-
el’s capaci y o di e en ia e dis inc ou comes unde a ied
con igu a ions. Sensi i i y analyses o pa ame e s such as
ee densi y, minimum ee age, and he a ea o labo coop-
e a ion we e all g ounded in li e a u e and empi ical da a.
T ee composi ion was a ied using da a om Chidumayo
(2019) and ul ima ely pa ame e ized wi h Mon o d e al.
(2021), ensu ing ha he ep esen a ion o o es dynam-
ics accu a ely e lec ed egional ecological con ex s. These
sensi i i y analyses u he suppo ed he model’s obus ness
and sui abili y.
3 Resul s
3.1 Desc ip i e esul s
The desc ip i e analysis highligh s he u al hos com-
muni y’s hea y eliance on o es esou ces o ood and
ene gy. Table2 summa izes he key cha ac e is ics o he
su eyed households, illus a ing hei dependency on o -
es esou ces, he challenges ela ed o land use, and hei
con ac wi h he nea by e ugee se lemen . As shown in
Table2, 85% o he 277 households epo ed collec ing i e-
wood, and 59% consumed wild ui s he week p eceding
he su ey. These indings emphasize he essen ial ole ha
o es esou ces play in he hos communi y's daily li e and
ood secu i y.
A no able dispa i y exis s be ween he a e age land own-
e ship and ac i ely cul i a ed a ea. While households own
an a e age o 6.74 hec a es o land, only 2.05 hec a es a e
unde cul i a ion. Labo sho ages eme ged as a signi ican
cons ain , wi h 34% o households iden i ying his as he
main eason o lea ing land uncul i a ed. Howe e , o he
ac o s also con ibu e o his issue: 17% o households
epo ed wai ing o land o eco e om slash-and-bu n
p ac ices, while 16% ci ed inancial limi a ions as a ba ie
o cul i a ion. The su ey also e ealed na u al esou ce
compe i ion be ween he hos communi y and he nea by
e ugee se lemen , wi h 46% o hos households epo ing
such an expe ience. Fu he mo e, 36% o he households
hold a o es use license, which g an s egula ed access o
o es esou ces.
3.2 Impac o  e ugee se lemen s andhos
communi ies on o es esou ces
Figu e3 p esen s he p edic ed de o es a ion a es o he
base models, which include only he hos communi y be o e
he implemen a ion o a e ugee se lemen in la e scena ios.
These p edic ions a e compa ed o annual de o es a ion a es
epo ed by li e a u e: a na ional a e o Zambia o 0.245%
(2000–2014) (Global Fo es Wa ch, 2023) and a local-
ized a e o he Nchelenge dis ic o 0.91% (2015–2016)
(Republic o Zambia, 2016). These obse ed a es e lec
condi ions be o e he a i al o e ugees in 2017. In he base
Table 2 Sample cha ac e is ics o he hos communi y in he Man a-
pala s udy a ea
SD S anda d de ia ions; Min Minimum alue; Max Maximum alue
The able p o ides summa y s a is ics, including mean, s anda d
de ia ion (SD), minimum (Min), and maximum (Max) alues, o el-
e an a iables o he su ey
Va iable Mean SD Min Max
Dis ance o se lemen (km) 4.80 1.60 2.71 8.79
Household size (membe s) 6.04 2.36 1 13
Responden age (yea s) 42.60 14.58 17 88
Responden educa ion (yea s) 6.66 2.98 0 16
Gende (1 = emale) 0.20 0.40 0 1
Land size (owned, hec a es) 6.74 5.63 0 25
Land size (cul i a ed, hec a es) 2.05 1.68 0 10
Uncul i a ed land due o:
 Labo sho age (1 = yes) 0.34 0.47 0 1
 Wai o eco e y S&B (1 = yes) 0.17 0.38 0 1
 Financial limi a ion (1 = yes) 0.16 0.37 0 1
 License o o es use (1 = yes) 0.36 0.48 0 1
 Fi ewood collec ion (1 = yes) 0.85 0.36 0 1
 Consumed wild ui s in las 7 days (1
= yes)
0.59 0.49 0 1
Con ac wi h e ugees:
 Real-li e expe ience (1 = yes) 0.93 0.25 0 1
 Compe i ion o na u al esou ces (1
= yes)
0.46 0.50 0 1
 Wage compe i ion (1 = yes) 0.10 0.30 0 1
 Employmen oppo uni ies (1 = yes) 0.52 0.50 0 1
1287
Fo es esou ce managemen , e ugee in eg a ion, and ood secu i y in u al Zambia: balancing sus ainabili y and equi y
5 Conclusion
Re ugees ha e nume ous posi i e e ec s on hei hos com-
muni ies, such as imp o ed access o schooling, heal h
acili ies, in as uc u e, and s imula ing economic ac i i-
ies. Howe e , a la ge inc ease in popula ion can lead o
g ea e compe i ion o na u al esou ces. This s udy u i-
lized an Agen -Based Model (ABM) o explo e he impac
o e ugee in luxes on o es esou ces and ood secu i y in
u al Zambia. Ou esea ch aimed o add ess (1) how e ugee
se lemen s and hos communi ies a ec o es esou ces,
(2) he impac s o a ying se lemen sizes on sus ainable
u iliza ion o he o es and ood secu i y, and (3) he ole
o labo coope a ion be ween e ugees and hos s in mi iga -
ing o es loss. The ABM p o ided a nuanced unde s and-
ing o he complex in e ac ions be ween popula ion g ow h,
esou ce deple ion, and ood secu i y, o e ing a aluable
ool o u u e policy-o ien ed esea chand implemen a ions.
The model showed se e al key indings di ec ly answe -
ing he esea ch ques ions: (1) Popula ion p essu e was
iden i ied as he c i ical d i e o o es esou ce deple ion,
wi h la ge se lemen s unable o sus ain ee egene a ion
unde high i ewood demand. While he ini ial se lemen
cons uc ion had a modes impac on o es esou ces in
smalle se lemen s, cumula i e popula ion p essu e led o
deple ion ac oss all scena ios. (2) No sus ainable se lemen
size was iden i ied, as e en he smalles modeled scena io
esul ed in unsus ainable ou comes due o cumula i e p es-
su es. (3) Labo coope a ion be ween e ugees and hos s
p esen ed mixed ou comes on ood secu i y. While i acili-
a ed expanded ag icul u al ac i i ies, his bene i was coun-
e ed by he accompanying dec ease in o es esou ces.
Beyond add essing hese esea ch ques ions, he s udy
e ealed u he insigh s in o esou ce use and en i onmen-
al dynamics. While slash-and-bu n ag icul u e empo a -
ily imp o es soil e ili y and o es co e , i s bene i s a e
quickly ou weighed by he unsus ainable i ewood demand
d i en by popula ion p essu e. Fi ewood collec ion, iden i-
ied as he p ima y d i e o o es loss, led o unsus ain-
able o es use e en wi hou ag icul u al expansion. This
educ ion in o es esou ces nega i ely impac s wo key
dimensions o ood secu i y: a ailabili y and s abili y.
Declines in wild ui s and edible insec s diminish ood
a ailabili y, while he long- e m decline in o es -based ood
esou ces unde mines ood s abili y, inc easing ulne abil-
i y o bo h e ugee and hos communi ies. This inc eased
compe i ion o diminishing esou ces may also exace ba e
ensions be ween hos s and e ugees, hinde ing in eg a ion
e o s. Al hough p ope y igh s en o cemen alle ia es i e-
wood compe i ion o hos s, i s success in os e ing in eg a-
ion is con ingen on adequa e ene gy and esou ce suppo
o bo h g oups.
These esul s emphasize he impo ance o imely in e -
en ions du ing he es ablishmen o e ugee se lemen s,
pa icula ly hose exceeding 10,000 esiden s, which equi e
immedia e suppo o p e en se e e de o es a ion. Smalle
se lemen s, such as hose wi h 2,500 e ugees, lea e mo e
oom o ake ac ion. Measu es such as p omo ing ag o o -
es y, in oducing imp o ed cooking s o es, and ini ia ing
e o es a ion e o s a e means o educe i ewood depend-
ency and mi iga ing esou ce con lic s. These measu es a e
essen ial o en i onmen al sus ainabili y, enhancing ood
secu i y, and os e ing posi i e hos - e ugee in e ac ions.
The insigh s p o ided by his s udy con ibu e o he
g owing body o knowledge on he en i onmen al ade-
o s o e ugee se lemen planning, o e ing a nuanced pe -
spec i e on he dynamics o o es esou ce deple ion and
he need o in eg a ed solu ions. While he cu en model
ocuses on u al Zambia, i s indings can in o m simila
se ings wi hin SSA's Comp ehensi e Re ugee Response
F amewo k (CRRF). Fu u e esea ch should ocus on
e ining he model by inco po a ing policy in e en ions
o explo e sus ainable ou comes. Add essing he e ugee
si ua ion e ec i ely om he onse can mi iga e o es loss,
educe esou ce con lic s, inc ease ood secu i y, and ul i-
ma ely suppo he success ul in eg a ion o e ugees in o
hei hos communi ies. Such in eg a ion helps e ugees ind
a new home and enables impo e ished u al hos communi-
ies o bene i om he p esence o e ugees in sus ainable
and mu ually bene icial ways.

1288 B.Ruesink, S.G onau
Appendix
Model ou comes inlabo coope a ion scena ios
Fig. 6 P edic ed changes in
ee numbe s o e 30 yea s
o six scena ios, a ying
e ugee se lemen sizes (Small
= 2,500/Medium = 5,000/
La ge = 10,000 e ugees) and
inclusion o exclusion o labo
coope a ion. Solid lines ep-
esen scena ios wi hou labo
coope a ion, while dashed lines
ep esen scena ios wi h labo
coope a ion. Blue lines e e
o a se lemen size o 2,500
e ugees, o ange lines o a se -
lemen size o 5,000 e ugees,
and g een lines o a se lemen
size o 10,000 e ugees
1289
Fo es esou ce managemen , e ugee in eg a ion, and ood secu i y in u al Zambia: balancing sus ainabili y and equi y
Fig. 7 Households unable o
ul ill hei annual i ewood
demand o e 30 yea s, compa -
ing six model scena ios wi h
a ying e ugee se lemen
sizes (Small = 2,500/Medium
= 5,000/La ge = 10,000 e u-
gees) and he op ion o labo
coope a ion be ween e ugees
and hos s. a e e s o he o al
numbe o households unable o
mee i ewood demand ac oss
all six model scena ios. Solid
lines ep esen scena ios wi h-
ou labo coope a ion, while
dashed lines ep esen scena ios
wi h labo coope a ion. Blue
lines e e o a se lemen size o
2,500 e ugees, o ange lines o
a se lemen size o 5,000 e u-
gees, and g een lines o a se le-
men size o 10,000 e ugees.
b e e s o he sha e o e ugee
and hos households wi hin
hei popula ion unable o mee
i ewood needs in scena ios
wi h a se lemen size o 2,500
e ugees, wi h and wi hou labo
coope a ion. Solid lines ep-
esen scena ios wi hou labo
coope a ion, while dashed lines
ep esen scena ios wi h labo
coope a ion. Blue lines e e o
e ugee households, and o ange
lines o hos households
1290 B.Ruesink, S.G onau
Model assump ions and hei jus i ica ion
Table 3 Elabo a ion and jus i ica ion o he Agen -Based Model (ABM) assump ions
Assump ion Sou ce Jus i ica ion/Elabo a ion
Model se up
Se up hos households Su ey da a These a iables a e based on he households’ indi idual answe s
o he ques ionnai e. We di ec ly impo hem in o ou model,
and he households can access hem o de e mine hei
indi idual demands/beha io s. All da a e e s o he las yea
be o e he su ey
Ini ia ed a iables:
HHID: Household Iden i ica ion Numbe
illage: The household’s illage land-owned: The household’s
owned land in hec a e land-cul i a ed: The household’s
cul i a ed land a ea in hec a es ees-home-use: The numbe
o ees he household collec ed o home use a ea-slash-bu n:
The a ea he household cul i a ed wi h slash-and-bu n ag icul-
u e in hec a e allow- ime-be o e-cul i a ion: The numbe o
yea s he household le hei land allow a e slash-and-bu n
ac i i ies be o e cul i a ing i ees-slash-bu n-home-use: The
numbe o ees he household ook home a e slash-and-bu n
ac i i ies o home use usage- ime-clea ed-land: The numbe
o yea s he household used clea ed land o cul i a ion pu -
poses allow- ime-be o e-slash-bu n: The numbe o yea s he
household le he land allow be o e pe o ming slash-and-
bu n ac i i ies again
Se up e ugee households (WFP & UNHCR, 2021) The numbe o e ugees is di ided by he household size o 5
(WFP & UNHCR) o ep esen households ins ead o indi idu-
als. This assump ion is made as households use i ewood
oge he and o adjus he da a o ma ch he hos household
da ase
Se up e ugees as a one- ime in lux (UNHCR, 2021b, c) The model implemen s he e ugees’ a i al as a one- ime e en
ins ead o a cons an in lux. This assump ion is based on he
se ing in Man apala. The e ugees a i ed in a ansi ion
cen e and mo ed o Man apala a ew mon hs a e he ini ial
in lux o Zambia. The main occu ence (and signi ican change
o he hos communi y) happened in ea ly 2018
Se up e ugee se lemen (UNHCR, 2020; WFP & UNHCR, 2021) The e ugee se lemen a ea is clea ed o ees (and no new ees
a e eg owing du ing he model un). Based on he li e a u e,
he e e ence size is 8,000 hec a es o 25,000 e ugees. The
size adjus s linea ly o he numbe o e ugees in he model un
Se up ees (Mon o e al., 2021; Webe e al., 2023) Based on Mon o e al., a andom, no mally dis ibu ed numbe
o ees wi h a mean alue o 81 and a s anda d de ia ion o
6.32 is c ea ed on each plo (0.25 hec a e)
1291
Fo es esou ce managemen , e ugee in eg a ion, and ood secu i y in u al Zambia: balancing sus ainabili y and equi y
Table 3 (con inued)
Assump ion Sou ce Jus i ica ion/Elabo a ion
Se up ee composi ion (Kaluba e al., 2021) As he hos communi y al eady pe o med slash-and-bu n
ag icul u e be o e he e ugees a i ed (Kaluba e al.), i is
simula ed ha hey p ac iced S&B o 15 yea s in he se up.
This way, a mo e sophis ica ed ee composi ion is c ea ed,
which be e ep esen s he common ag icul u al p ac ice
 Se up illages and a ms Su ey da a The hos households mo e o he GPS coo dina es associa ed
wi h hei illage. A e wa d, hey con inue claiming ee
plo s a ound hem un il hey each he numbe o plo s owned
indica ed by he su ey
S uc u al p ocesses and ules
Accessible plo s Su ey da a Hos households can access hei own plo s o i ewood col-
lec ion and o es plo s. Re ugees can only access he o es
plo s. Plo s a e only accessible wi h a leas one ee abo e he
minimum age p esen
Ag icul u al p ac ice Su ey da a Hos households use a mland in di e en ways a e i was
a ec ed by slash-and-bu n ag icul u e (Fo each pe iod, he
du a ion was indica ed by he household in he su ey):
Fi s , land is allow
Second, land is cul i a ed
Thi d, land is allow be o e i can be used o S&B again
Annual de o es a ion a es o 0.245% o Zambia and 0.91%
o Nchelenge
(Republic o Zambia, 2016)
(Global Fo es Wa ch, 2023)
This a e was chosen based on obse ed de o es a ion a es in
Zambia om 2000 un il 2014 and o Nchelenge om 2015 o
2016. These we e he a ailable a es closes o he ime o da a
collec ion in 2018
Cu ees Su ey da a The households cu ees based on hei de ined i ewood
demand o he yea . Households mo e o he nea es acces-
sible plo wi h he highes numbe o a ailable ees (abo e
minimum age). Hos s p e e hei own o e o es plo s. The
households s a o cu down he oldes ees as hey p o ide
he mos ene gy. Two cases a e possible o he collec ion o
ees:
1) Enough ees o ul ill demand: The household cu s down he
demanded numbe o ees and se s i s emaining demand o
he yea o ze o
2) The e a e no enough ees: Households cu down all a ail-
able ees on he plo and educe hei yea ly demand by his
amoun
Cu ees limi (Adeyonu, 2014; Ba dasi & Wodon, 2006; Vianello, 2016) Households cu ees un il hey ul illed hei demand o he
yea o un il hey collec ed wice a week o a yea (104 imes).
We de ine he sys em as unsus ainable i hey collec mo e
han wice weekly as he households ha e less ime o o he
ac i i ies, like educa ion and a ming
1292 B.Ruesink, S.G onau
Table 3 (con inued)
Assump ion Sou ce Jus i ica ion/Elabo a ion
Decision-making p ocess o agen s The decision-making p ocess is simpli ied o ocus on key
beha io s ele an o he model’s objec i es, such as esou ce
collec ion and land use
De ine i ewood demand Su ey da a The households i s de ine hei i ewood demand o he yea .
The e o e, he s ock (i he e is any) is used o ul ill he
demand. I he s ock canno ul ill he demand, he emainde
is he amoun hey mus collec o he yea
Fi ewood demand is cons an o e ime Su ey da a The model bases he annual i ewood demand on he su ey da a
wi hou accoun ing o po en ial changes in consump ion due
o clima e change o de o es a ion. As en i onmen al condi-
ions e ol e, households may need o adjus hei usage o
seek al e na i e ene gy sou ces. Howe e , we wan o c ea e a
“s icking o he s a us quo” analysis o e alua e o es and ood
secu i y changes wi hou adjus men s
Hi e e ugees Su ey da a
(G onau & Ruesink, 2021; ILO, 2011)
Households hi e e ugees o cul i a ion pu poses wi h a p ob-
abili y o he household’s s a e a iable “p obabili y-labo -
coope a ion”. Hi ing a e ugee means ha he desi ed cul i a-
ion a ea inc eases by he numbe o hec a es pe membe in
he wo king age o he household. The assump ion is ha he
hos households can now cul i a e mo e o hei owned land
because o he addi ional labo
Households collec i ewood a maximum o wo imes pe
week
Wi h he collec ion o wo imes pe week, we al eady see issues
wi h i ewood p o ision. We acknowledge ha , in eali y, he
households would inc ease he collec ion imes bu don’ see
he need o implemen his in he model as we ha e al eady
p o en an unsus ainable beha io a his poin . Du ing he
model cons uc ion, a highe numbe was es ed, which led o
mo e households being able o ul ill hei demand and ewe
ees in he la e model s ages compa ed o he p esen ed
model ou comes
Popula ion g ow h a e o 3.6% (Zambia S a is ics Agency, 2022) The popula ion ( e ugees and hos s) g ows a a a e o 3.6%
annually. This is based on he Zambia S a is ics Agency's
a e age annual popula ion g ow h a es om Luapula P o ince
be ween 2010 and 2022

1293
Fo es esou ce managemen , e ugee in eg a ion, and ood secu i y in u al Zambia: balancing sus ainabili y and equi y
Table 3 (con inued)
Assump ion Sou ce Jus i ica ion/Elabo a ion
Model schedule 1. Model se up
2. Annual p ocesses:
a. Plo s eco e om S&B, and ees g ow
b. All people collec i ewood in a andom o de
c. The hos s hi e e ugees
d. The hos s pe o m slash-and-bu n ag icul u e (i desi ed)
e. Popula ion g ow h
We s a he yea ly p ocesses by le ing he en i onmen g ow.
A e wa d, we implemen human ac i i ies. We s a wi h he
i ewood collec ion as i is a con inuous ac i i y. A e wa ds,
he hos s hi e e ugees and pe o m hei ag icul u al ac i i ies.
Du ing he model c ea ion, his o de was changed wi hou
signi ican changes in he esul s
Fo he yea ly i ewood collec ion, we assume a andom o de
o collec ion. An o de could in alida e ou esul s as i canno
be p o en wi h ou da a, no was i isible in he li e a u e ha
i ewood collec ion happens in a speci ic o de o households.
Di e en o de s ( i s hos s, hen e ugees, and ice e sa)
we e es ed du ing model cons uc ion, leading o simila
ends in he p esen ed model e sion
Slash-and-bu n p ac ice Su ey da a (1) The household mo es o a andom plo ha is accessible o
slash-and-bu n ag icul u e (i belongs o he household and is
cu en ly no in one o he slash-and-bu n phases)
(2) The plo is clea ed om ees, and he household akes a
speci ic numbe o ees home (indica ed by su ey da a).
These ees a e added o he s ock, which is used i s o ul ill
demand
(3) The plo s se hei s a us o slash-and-bu n ( ee g ow h
adjus s acco dingly)
The spa ial Scale o he model is 13,000 hec a es (G onau e al., 2018) The Man apala s udy egion is 13,000 hec a es in size. In ou
model, each plo ep esen s 0.25 hec a es, allowing a p ecise
plo dis ibu ion o he hos households based on he su ey
da a
Tempo al Scale o 30 yea s (Webe e al., 2023) The model uns o 30 yea s o see he e ugees’ e ec on de o -
es a ion a e hei ini ial a i al
1294 B.Ruesink, S.G onau
Table 3 (con inued)
Assump ion Sou ce Jus i ica ion/Elabo a ion
T ee g ow h and eco e y on a ms Su ey da a
(Mon o e al., 2021)
In e iew wi h he local o es depa men
Each yea he a m's ees g ow olde , and new ees g ow
The eg ow h o new ees depends on he s a us o he plo
cul i a ion. The ee densi y is based on Mon o e al. The
du a ion o cul i a ion and allow pe iods a e impo ed om
he su ey da a
(1) Plo was no cul i a ed by slash-and-bu n ag icul u e, o his
p ac ice happened a leas 36 yea s ago: 64 new ees/ha wi h a
maximum o 324 ees/ha
(2) The Plo is cu en ly cul i a ed: No ees a e g owing on his
plo , which is cu en ly cul i a ed wi h c ops
(3) The plo was cul i a ed by slash-and-bu n ag icul u e and
is cu en ly no in cul i a ion s a us. 135 new ees/ha wi h a
maximum ee densi y (maximum numbe o ees/ha) depend-
en on ime passed since S&B. 4 h esholds:
a. 1yea : 660 ees/ha
b. 8yea s: 592 ees/ha
c. 17 yea s: 408 ees/ha
d. 29 yea s: 512 ees/ha
T ee g ow h in o es (Mon o e al., 2021)
In e iew wi h he local o es depa men
Each yea , he ees in he o es g ow olde , and new ees g ow.
64 new ees g ow pe hec a e pe yea (es ima ion o o es
o icial), wi h a maximum o 324 ees pe yea (Mon o
e al.)
Pa ame e alues
Con ac p obabili y se o an indi idual alue o house-
holds
(G onau & Ruesink, 2021) Based on G onau and Ruesink, we de ine a con ac p obabili y
wi h hei esul s o he bi a ia e p obi model. Fou a iables
a e de ined as signi ican o he con ac :
1) Age54: Is he esponde a leas 54? Yes: -0.0964
2) EducP i: Did he esponden inish p ima y educa ion? Yes:
+ 0.1360
3) LongDis : Is he household in a illage a om he camp?
Yes: -0.1139
4) Be e Li e: Does he household ha e be e li e sa is ac ion
han he yea be o e? Yes: + 0.080
Hec a e pe membe o wo king age is se o indi idual
alue o households
Su ey da a
(ILO, 2011)
To de ine how p oduc i e he household is in cul i a ing land,
we di ide he hec a e o land he household cul i a ed in a
yea by he numbe o household membe s abo e he age o 14
(ILO, 2011). This alue is used o he “hi e e ugees” p ocess
Minimum age o ees In e iew wi h he o es y depa men Households canno cu a ee wi h an age below 15. We assume
ha households do no collec small ees as hey p o ide less
ene gy. Based on he in e iew, we iden i ied an age o 15 as a
easonable h eshold
1295
Fo es esou ce managemen , e ugee in eg a ion, and ood secu i y in u al Zambia: balancing sus ainabili y and equi y
Table 3 (con inued)
Assump ion Sou ce Jus i ica ion/Elabo a ion
The numbe o cu able ees on each plo is se o an indi-
idual numbe
In e iew wi h he o es y depa men T ees canno be cu i hey a e unde 15 yea s old. This is
he es ima ed age a which he ees a e big enough o be
conside ed by he households o collec ion. The numbe o
cu able ees on a plo is he numbe o ees p esen abo e he
minimum age o 15
Numbe o e ugees in he model:
2,500/5,000/10,000
(Webe e al., 2023) Gi en ha Webe e al. ound no sus ainable o es esou ce
managemen o a se lemen size o app oxima ely 18,000
e ugees, we decided o es smalle se lemen sizes
The ini ial numbe o ees is 324 ees/ha (Mon o e al., 2021) The numbe o ees indica ed by Mon o e al
The p obabili y o labo coope a ion is 0.5: Bo h labo
coope a ion and no coope a ion ha e he same p obabili y
(The inal decision o coope a ion is s ill depending on he
a ailabili y o land)
Su ey da a
(Gengo e al., 2018)
Op ion1: HH expe ienced no impac om he e ugee se lemen
Op ion 2: HH expe ienced posi i e con ac , bu HH is employed
a camp. I is assumed ha he posi i e con ac is based on
his employmen , as Gengo e al. indica e posi i e e ec s o
employmen oppo uni ies o hos s
P obabili y labo coope a ion is 1: Hos household open o
labo coope a ion
Su ey da a
(G onau & Ruesink, 2021)
The hos household expe ienced posi i e con ac wi h e ugees,
and no membe is employed a he se lemen . The e o e, he
household is open o coope a ing in land cul i a ion, based on
he connec ion be ween con ac and opinion ound by G onau
and Ruesink
The p obabili y o labo coope a ion is 0: The hos house-
hold is no open o labo coope a ion
Su ey da a
(G onau & Ruesink, 2021)
Hos households expe ience nega i e con ac wi h e ugees
and a e he e o e no open o coope a ing o land cul i a ion.
Based on he connec ion be ween con ac and opinion ound
by G onau and Ruesink
T ee demand is se o indi idual alue o hos households Su ey da a The households add up he numbe o ees hey collec ed o
home use and he numbe o ees hey ook home om slash-
and-bu n ac i i ies in he yea be o e he su ey
T ee demand is se o indi idual alue o e ugee house-
holds
Su ey da a
(Cla k, 2002; La me , 2016; Vlassen oo & Ve weijen, 2017)
The ee demand o e ugee households is based on he assump-
ion ha hey beha e simila ly o he hos households. We
jus i y he assump ion using he same en i onmen in which
he wo g oups in e ac . Addi ionally, he Democ a ic Republic
o Congo and Zambia a e connec ed by a long mig a ion
his o y, suppo ing he assump ion o simila li elihood s a e-
gies. They se hei demand o a andom-no mal numbe wi h
a mean alue o 203 and a s anda d de ia ion o 409 based on
he su ey da a (Minimum o ze o)
Each assump ion is desc ibed in de ail, including i s basis in empi ical da a, li e a u e e e ences, and i s ele ance o he dynamics modeled in he s udy
1296 B.Ruesink, S.G onau
Supplemen a y In o ma ion The online e sion con ains supplemen-
a y ma e ial a ailable a h ps:// doi. o g/ 10. 1007/ s12571- 025- 01547-3.
Acknowledgemen s The da ase o igina es om he “FoSeZa – Food
Secu i y in u al Zambia” p ojec , unded by he Ge man Fede al Min-
is y o Food and Ag icul u e (BMEL) [2813 FSNU11]. We wan o
hank he people li ing in Man apala o hei con inuous suppo . The
au ho s also hank he Zambian Minis y o Ag icul u e, he Minis y o
Fishe ies and Li es ock and he Zambia Ag icul u e Resea ch Ins i u e
(ZARI) o ield wo k assis ance a he s udy si e.
Au ho con ibu ions Concep ualiza ion: B igi e Ruesink, S e en G o-
nau; Me hodology: B igi e Ruesink; Fo mal analysis and in es iga ion:
B igi e Ruesink; W i ing – o iginal d a p epa a ion: B igi e Ruesink;
W i ing – e iew and edi ing: B igi e Ruesink, S e en G onau; Fund-
ing acquisi ion: S e en G onau; Supe ision: S e en G onau.
Funding Open Access unding enabled and o ganized by P o-
jek DEAL. This esea ch is pa o he Leibniz Young In es iga o
G an by he Leibniz Uni e si y Hanno e , Ge many. G an numbe
LYIG-08–2019-11.
Da a a ailabili y The da a and model code o ec ea e he esul s a e
a ailable in he supplemen a y in o ma ion. Fu he da a p esen ed in
his s udy is a ailable on eques om he au ho s.
Decla a ions
E hics app o al E hical clea ance o ield esea ch design was g an ed
by he Uni e si y o Zambia (UNZA).
Consen o publish Consen o publica ion is no applicable, as he
manusc ip does no con ain da a ha could be used o iden i y su ey
pa icipan s.
Compe ing in e es s The au ho s ha e no ele an inancial o non-
inancial in e es s o disclose.
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