Ga i, Emma; D'O a io, And ea
A icle
The Missing Rocke : An Economic and Enginee ing
Analysis o he Reusabili y Dilemma in he Eu opean Space
Sec o
In e economics
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ga i, Emma; D'O a io, And ea (2025) : The Missing Rocke : An Economic and
Enginee ing Analysis o he Reusabili y Dilemma in he Eu opean Space Sec o , In e economics,
ISSN 1613-964X, Sciendo, Wa saw, Vol. 60, Iss. 2, pp. 88-95,
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In e economics 2025 | 2
88
Fo um
Emma Ga i and And ea D’O a io*
The Missing Rocke : An Economic and Enginee ing Analysis o he
Reusabili y Dilemma in he Eu opean Space Sec o
© The Au ho (s) 2025. Open Access: This a icle is dis ibu ed unde he
e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 4.0 In e na ional License
(h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/).
Open Access unding p o ided by ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e
o Economics.
* This a icle has g ea ly bene i ed om ex ensi e in e iews wi h
Pie e Lionne ( ocke economy), Pe e B. de Selding (US economy
and SpaceX e olu ion), Sla a Tu yshe (SpaceX and NASA ocke
enginee ing), Axel Ronneke (Eu opean space s a egies) and Ma -
cello Spagnulo (Eu opean space poli ics). The au ho s since ely hank
hem o hei in aluable insigh s, which helped e ine and shape
some o he heo ies p esen ed in his a icle.
In e economics, 2025, 60(2), 88-95
JEL: F01, O33, O38
DOI: 10.2478/ie-2025-0018
Emma Ga i, AGH Uni e si y o Science and Tech-
nology, K akow, Poland.
And ea D’O a io, Geopoli ica.in o, Tu in, I aly.
In 2023, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 comple ed 138 o bi al ligh s,
up om 96 in 2022 (Fous , 2025). In con as , A iane 6,
Eu ope’s long-awai ed successo o A iane 5, launched
only once – o i s inaugu al ligh . This s a k con as has
spa ked deba e, wi h many ad oca ing o Eu ope o de-
elop i s own eusable ocke , ollowing SpaceX’s model.
The idea is ha in es ing in eusabili y could boos Eu-
ope’s compe i i eness in he global ma ke .
Eu ope and he US ook ex emely di e gen pa hs be-
ween 2000 and 2014. The decision was no pu ely ech-
nical bu d i en by economic, poli ical and s a egic ac-
o s. While SpaceX’s eusabili y model has eshaped he
indus y, i s sus ainabili y elies hea ily on S a link and
he Low Ea h O bi (LEO) sa elli e ma ke – a sel -c ea ed
in e nal demand ha equi es equen , low-cos launch-
es. Wi hou a compa able ma ke , Eu ope would need
signi ican ins i u ional in es men and long- e m poli ical
commi men o de elop eusabili y, adically eshaping i s
ocke indus y.
The cu en deba e is o en shaped by he dominance
o SpaceX and us a ions o e he delays o A iane 6,
a he han a mo e comp ehensi e Eu opean economic
s a egy. Blindly adop ing he Ame ican app oach may
no be he bes way o Eu ope o p o ec i s so e eign y
in space. Ins ead, Eu ope migh be be e se ed by ca -
ing ou a dis inc s a egy o long- e m g ow h and inde-
pendence wi hin he global space economy.
This a icle examines o e looked da a in he eusabili y
deba e, e aces key momen s in Ame ican and Eu opean
space policy and explo es al e na i e s a egies ha align
wi h Eu ope’s s eng hs and in e es s. The a icle aises
impo an ques ions: is eusabili y uly wo h i ? Why did
he US in es in eusabili y while Eu ope did no ? Wha
al e na i e in es men s could Eu ope pu sue? The answe
depends on whe he he ma ke can suppo such an in-
dus y. Wi h SpaceX’s success ied o S a link’s demand,
and he Eu opean ma ke lacking high- equency launch-
es, Eu ope’s decision is mo e complex han simply ollow-
ing SpaceX’s lead.
Ul ima ely, he ocus should shi om eusabili y e sus
expendabili y o a b oade , s a egic ision o Eu ope,
le e aging space echnology o achie e long- e m goals.
Is eusabili y wo h i ?
The undamen al ques ion in any explo a o y endea ou ,
whe he on Ea h o in space, is: how do you ge he e,
and a wha cos ? Rocke s a e he key o making space
mo e accessible. Expendable ocke s a e cos ly o build,
and unlike eusable ones, hey can only be used once.
This d i es up launch cos s, keeping space an exclusi e
domain o selec ins i u ional and p i a e ac o s. Lowe -
ing ocke cos s is essen ial o accessibili y, and eus-
abili y has long been explo ed as he solu ion.
Howe e , eusabili y is no inhe en ly cheap. I equi es
a echnological o e haul, hea y R&D in es men and –
mos c i ically – a ma ke wi h high demand o o se he
cos s. A eusable ocke ha lies only h ee o ou imes
a yea is a om being mo e sus ainable han an expend-
able one om an indus ial policy s andpoin . Addi ional-
ly, eusabili y is only iable o “low-ene gy” space ligh s,
hence o LEO and Geos a iona y O bi (GEO) missions
mainly. Indeed, he eusable p opulsion s age, like he
i s s age o Falcon 9, equi es uel o e u n, limi ing i s
capabili y o ca y mass o o bi beyond Ea h (“high-en-
e gy” space ligh s). To compensa e, he launche needs
o inc ease in size, equi ing mo e uel: S a ship, he ully
eusable supe hea y-li launch ehicle cu en ly in de-
elopmen , is no hing mo e han a la ge-scale applica-
ion o Tsiolko sky’s equa ion.
This places eusabili y in a double dilemma: i is ech-
nologically sus ainable o LEO missions and economi-
ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e o Economics 89
Fo um
cally sus ainable only wi h high- equency LEO missions.
The e o e, he ques ion is no simply whe he eusabil-
i y is wo h i , bu a he in which con ex (s) eusabili y is
wo h i .
The enginee ing o eusabili y: A beyond-ea h
pe spec i e
Is Eu ope uly acing a launch c isis, o is he issue one
o compe i i eness a he han capabili y? A genuine
“launch p oblem” would imply a lack o echnological ex-
pe ise and in as uc u e o de elop, p oduce and ope -
a e space sys ems. Tha is no Eu ope’s si ua ion.
When i comes o compe i i eness, se e al ac o s de-
e mine a launch sys em’s edge. The o emos is payload
capaci y: he g ea e he payload a ocke can deli e o
o bi , he s onge i s ma ke posi ion. Howe e , payload
capaci y mus always be analysed in ela ion o mission
ype and a ge o bi . Fo example, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 can
li nea ly 23 onnes o LEO in i s expendable con igu a-
ion and up o 18 onnes when pa ially eusable. To GEO,
Falcon 9 can ca y a maximum o 8.5 onnes.
Eu ope’s hea y-li launche , A iane 6, in i s ou -boos e
con igu a ion (A iane 64), has a li capaci y o abou 22
onnes o LEO and 11.5 onnes o GEO. By hese num-
be s, A iane 6 is compa able o Falcon 9 in LEO and e en
supe io in GEO. The eason o his design choice lies
in Eu ope’s his o ical s eng h in GEO missions, sensi-
bly acili a ed by i s Kou ou launch si e in F ench Guiana.
Loca ed nea he equa o , Kou ou enables launches ha
equi e minimal plane change manoeu e s o launch-
e s, ansla ing in o uel sa ings and inc eased Eu opean
launche s’ payload capaci y. This s a egic ad an age al-
lowed Eu ope, h ough A ianespace, o domina e up o
60% o he comme cial geos a iona y launch ma ke om
he 1980s o he ea ly 2010s (A ianespace, 2014).
Howe e , his dominance has signi ican ly e oded since
2015 due o SpaceX’s in oduc ion o eusable launch-
e s, d as ically lowe ing launch cos s. While eusabili y
has e olu ionised LEO and GEO missions, i s bene i s o
deep space explo a ion emain deba able.
The geog aphical challenge o Moon missions
Launch compe i i eness a ies wi h mission objec i es.
Fo Moon missions, he equa ion changes. The Kennedy
Space Cen e , loca ed a 28 deg ees la i ude, aligns well
wi h he Moon’s maximum o bi al inclina ion, enabling US
launche s o access he Moon wi h minimal uel-in ensi e
plane change manoeu e s. In con as , A iane 6 launches
om Kou ou a almos i e deg ees la i ude. Consequen -
ly, o a oid he need o launche s o execu e se e e plane
change manoeu e s (o e 20 deg ees), Eu ope mus wai
o he Moon o pass nea he equa o , limi ing he luna
launch windows o e e y wo weeks.
Despi e his cons ain , A iane 6 demons a es solid pay-
load capabili ies o Moon missions, i alling Falcon 9
and o he US ocke s. Consequen ly, he e iciency and
he compe i i eness o a launche canno be educed o a
simple “mass- o-o bi ” e sus “cos ” equa ion. The GEO
and luna mission examples illus a e how launche s wi h
compa able LEO pe o mance di e ge in compe i i eness
when mission a ge s shi .
Reusabili y: A game change o a limi a ion?
The abili y o SpaceX o eco e up o 75% o Falcon 9 – in-
cluding he i s s age and ai ing – d as ically lowe s launch
cos s and inc eases ligh equency. This model wo ks ex-
cep ionally well o LEO and, mo e ecen ly, GEO missions,
whe e ela i ely low ene gy is equi ed o each o bi .
Howe e , o high-ene gy missions o he Moon, Ma s o
beyond, eusabili y in oduces signi ican design chal-
lenges. A eusable p opulsion s age mus ese e uel o
i s e u n jou ney, educing payload capaci y. To compen-
sa e, a la ge ocke is needed, which in u n demands
mo e uel o s abilise du ing e-en y. This is why SpaceX
equen ly op s o expendable Falcon 9 e sions o in e -
plane a y missions and elies on he expendable Falcon
Hea y when addi ional mass is equi ed.
Recen US Moon missions unde NASA’s Comme cial Lu-
na Payload Se ices (CLPS) p og amme, launched on e-
usable Falcon 9 ocke s, ha e demons a ed limi ed pay-
load capaci ies. While his cons ain is cu en ly masked
by he small size o mode n luna lande s (ha ing a pay-
load mass capabili y in he o de o maximum 150 kg), he
A emis p og amme’s needs ex end a beyond, equi ing
payloads in he ange o se e al onnes. China’s Chang’e
missions al eady showcase supe io capabili ies in luna
logis ics.
This limi a ion p esen s a challenge o comme cialising
luna ac i i ies. Unlike LEO, whe e a o dabili y d i es de-
mand, he luna economy equi es bo h cos -e ec i eness
and high payload capaci y – some hing Falcon 9 canno
ye gua an ee. This is why SpaceX is de eloping S a ship.
S a ship: The hea y-li solu ion?
Deep space missions demand eno mous uel consump-
ion because o he high ene gy le els ha cha ac e ise
such ajec o y mission p o iles. NASA’s Space Launch
In e economics 2025 | 2
90
Fo um
Figu e 1
Numbe o comme cial spacec a launched by
cus ome egion (S a link shown sepa a ely)
No e: Dis ega ding S a link, global space ac i i y g ow h emains mode -
a e.
Sou ce: Eu ospace LEAT da abase (2024).
Sys em (SLS), o example, bu ns o e 720 onnes o p o-
pellan – a a a e o six onnes pe second o 120 sec-
onds – o place he 26.5- onne O ion spacec a on a di-
ec luna ans e ajec o y.
S a ship aims o scale up eusabili y o space explo a-
ion, p omising o e 100 onnes o ca go deli e y o he
Moon and up o 150 onnes o LEO (SpaceX, 2020). While
his is e olu iona y o LEO, deep-space missions emain
unp o en. A luna S a ship mission mus :
• each LEO
• execu e a Luna T ans e Injec ion (LTI) manoeu e
• pe o m mul iple T ajec o y Con ol Manoeu e s (TCMs)
• conduc a Moon o bi inse ion (MOI) bu n
• dock wi h he Ga eway s a ion
• land as onau s on he Moon’s sou h pole
• ascend back o o bi
• e u n o Ea h while su i ing a mosphe ic e-en y.
A majo challenge is e uelling: S a ship equi es app oxi-
ma ely 5,500 onnes o p opellan , ans e ed in mic o-
g a i y. E en assuming success, S a ship would need
mul iple e uelling missions – possibly in ol ing addi ional
S a ships – aising logis ical conce ns.
This unde sco es he pa adox o eusabili y: while i sim-
pli ies a chi ec u e by consolida ing unc ions in o a single
ehicle, i also in oduces ope a ional complexi ies. The
A emis p og amme, which cu en ly lacks a eliable luna
lande solu ion beyond S a ship, aces unce ain ies. Can
a S a ship mission ul ima ely cos less han an expend-
able SLS mission? Tha emains o be seen.
The economics o eusabili y: A LEO pe spec i e
Fo beyond-o bi missions ocused on scien i ic disco -
e y and plane a y explo a ion, eusabili y o en seems
imp ac ical and physically limi ing. Howe e , he equa ion
changes when conside ing nea -Ea h objec i es wi h a
comme cial pu pose. In his dimension, cu ing cos s
and achie ing indus ial-scale ocke p oduc ion o e s a
clea ad an age: la ge-scale manu ac u ing can educe
expenses enough o enable p i a e cus ome s o pa ici-
pa e, os e ing a b oade economic sys em beyond ins i-
u ional ligh s. Howe e , e en in his case, eusabili y has
i s limi a ions.
Reusabili y can cu cos s only in he long un and i su i-
cien demand exis s o sus ain equen launches. The key
ques ion om an economic pe spec i e is: which ma ke s
can gene a e his demand. Do hey al eady exis , o do
hey need o be c ea ed? And how la ge mus demand be
o make eusabili y inancially iable?
As o 2025, independen da a emains sca ce on whe he
eusabili y is de ini i ely cos -e ec i e. A s udy by Lionne
and Cuella (2021) analysed he economics o Falcon 9
launch, e ealing ha p o i abili y s ongly co ela es wi h
launch equency. The s udy concluded ha a eusable
ocke is economically iable only i i achie es a leas
six o nine launches pe yea , wi h con ac p ices anging
om US $50 million o US $110 million, depending on he
cus ome .
The ques ion o whe he eusabili y is wo h i he e o e
depends on a ma ke demand ha equi es equen ,
cos -e ec i e launches o su pass he b eak-e en h esh-
old. Which ma ke can c ea e such demand?
In 2023, he e we e 212 success ul o bi al launches glob-
ally. The US led wi h 114, while Eu ope conduc ed only
h ee (ESA, 2024). SpaceX accoun ed o 96 o he US
launches – o e 80%. Howe e , 67 we e o expanding
i s S a link cons ella ion, meaning 69% o SpaceX’s mis-
sions we e sel -p o isioned. Wi hou S a link, SpaceX
conduc ed 30 launches – s ill a mo e han Eu ope’s h ee
bu highligh ing a c ucial end: SpaceX’s high launch a e
is d i en p ima ily by S a link, no o e all comme cial de-
mand o LEO, Medium Ea h O bi o GEO launches (see
Figu e 1). In ac , a Eu ospace (2024) s udy showed ha
in 2024, spacec a ma ke alue was s ill domina ed by
go e nmen al p og ammes (see Figu e 2).
Howe e , Lionne and Cuella (2021) demons a ed ha
e en US go e nmen al p og ammes – despi e demand
S a link O he p og ammes
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
USAO he Russia (& CIS)
JapanIndiaChina Eu ope
2011
2013
2015
2010
2012
2014
2016
ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e o Economics 91
Fo um
being highe han in Eu ope – a e s ill insu icien o make
eusabili y p o i able in he long un. Fo example, in 2020,
NASA p o ided s able launch oppo uni ies o SpaceX,
a e aging ou launches pe yea (Figu e 3). O he US cus-
ome s, mainly mili a y and in elligence agencies, added
wo o ou mo e. Ye , wi h only six o eigh annual launch-
es, eusabili y ba ely b oke e en. To sus ain a eusable
ocke p oduc ion line, a much la ge , consis en demand
was needed. The only ma ke capable o suppo ing such
a cadence was ha o LEO mega-cons ella ions – a ma -
ke ha did no ye exis . So, SpaceX delibe a ely c ea ed
i o se e i s own economic goals.
The game-changing c ea ion o S a link
Reusabili y alone was no enough – SpaceX needed e-
quen launches o make Falcon 9 economically iable. As
men ioned abo e, es ima es sugges ha eusabili y only
becomes cos -e ec i e a e six o nine launches pe yea
(Lionne & Cuella , 2021). In 2011-2012, Falcon 9 1.1 had
a li capaci y o 16 onnes o LEO (Space Launch Repo ,
2017). The e o e, o sus ain ope a ions, SpaceX equi ed a
leas 96 onnes o annual payload (16 onnes mul iplied by a
minimum o six launches), which was no co e ed by NASA
and o he US ins i u ional ope a ions un il 2017 (Figu e 3).
The comme cial sec o lacked su icien demand, o cing
SpaceX o ind new cus ome s – o become i s own.
In ea ly 2014, Elon Musk and G eg Wyle explo ed launch-
ing a 640-sa elli e cons ella ion called Wo ldVu (now Eu el-
sa OneWeb). Assuming he 16- onne LEO capaci y o Fal-
con 9, his could ha e secu ed six launches o SpaceX –
help ul, bu no inancially sus ainable. When discussions
collapsed, SpaceX pi o ed, iling an In e na ional Telecom-
munica ions Union (ITU) applica ion h ough he No we-
gian Communica ions Au ho i y unde he name STEAM.
By 2016, i o mally applied o he Fede al Communica ions
Commission (FCC) o wha would become S a link.
Since i s i s launch in 2019, SpaceX has deployed nea ly
7,000 S a link sa elli es, including 4,216 Gen1 uni s, and
is now seeking app o al o o e 30,000 Gen2 sa elli es
(Rainbow, 2024). SpaceX’s indus ial-scale launch and
sa elli e p oduc ion has d ama ically cu cos s. Each S a -
link sa elli e cos s app oxima ely US $2,500/kg o p o-
duce, wi h da a p icing below US $100/Mbps, compa ed
o OneWeb’s US $14,000/kg and US $200/Mbps (see Fig-
u e 4).
This e ically in eg a ed app oach – combining launch
and sa elli e p oduc ion – was a game-change . While Tel-
edesic and I idium a emp ed simila models in he 1990s
(Mellow, 2004; Polyako , 2023), SpaceX was he i s o
success ully con ol bo h demand and supply, le e aging
a eusable launch sys em and a mass-p oduced sa elli e
cons ella ion unde one co po a e umb ella.
Ul ima ely, S a link and eusabili y became in e depend-
en : eusabili y equi ed high launch olumes, while sa -
elli e cons ella ions p o ided he necessa y demand. By
sol ing his equa ion, SpaceX c ea ed a sel -sus aining
business model ha no Eu opean compe i o could ep-
lica e, as he Eu opean ma ke ollowed a di e en , mo e
agmen ed ajec o y.
The Eu opean ajec o y: Why did Eu ope no go
eusable?
Cul u ally, he comme cialisa ion o space ac i i ies is a
new concep wi hin Eu ope’s adi ional space ision. Eu-
ope has his o ically seen majo space ac i i ies d i en
by he Eu opean Space Agency (ESA), wi h public-p i a e
Figu e 2
Spacec a ma ke alue
in million US dolla s by ma ke segmen
Sou ce: Da a om Eu ospace LEAT da abase (2024).
Figu e 3
Falcon launches by main cus ome
Sou ce: Da a om Pie e and Cuella (2021).
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Comme cial p og ammes Go e nmen p og ammes
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NASA O he US ins i u ions S a link O he cus ome s
In e economics 2025 | 2
92
Fo um
Figu e 4
In es men cos s ac oss companies
No es: B oadband cos s e lec bandwid h comme cialisa ion po en ial. Fo example, Konnek VHTS, a GEO sa elli e cons ella ion ope a ed by Eu elsa ,
cos s mo e pe kg han S a link bu las s 3-4 imes longe (15-20 yea s s. 4-5 o S a link) and comme cialises 85% o a ailable bandwid h (only 15% o
S a link), making cos pe Mbps compe i i e.
Sou ce: Da a om Lionne (2024).
pa ne ships eme ging bu s ill unde signi ican go e n-
men o e sigh . To unde s and Eu ope’s app oach, i is
essen ial o go back o he 1990s when Eu ope made ea -
ly a emp s a eusabili y, o ecas ing wha would la e be
ealised by companies like SpaceX.
Ea ly Eu opean e o s in eusabili y: The 1990s ini ia i es
F om Janua y 1988 o Feb ua y 1994, ESA conduc ed
he “Winged Launche Con igu a ion S udy” (WLS),
assessing se en eusable launch ehicle p oposals.
Among hese, Vehicles 5a, 5b and 6a we e conside ed
iable o ope a ion om he Kou ou launch si e. How-
e e , he ou come o he WLS was o choose o in es-
iga e only one solu ion, he one ha bes aligned wi h
Eu ope’s o e all mission and ope a ional needs. The
echnical easibili y o hese p oposals is de ailed in Be -
y and G alle (1996).
In 1994, ESA’s Fu u e Eu opean Space T anspo a ion
In es iga ions P og amme (FESTIP) picked up om he
WLS s udy, aiming o de elop he nex -gene a ion launch-
e beyond A iane 5. The p ima y goal was o d ama ically
educe he cos o accessing space – wha we now de ine
as eusabili y. A 1995 ESA epo highligh ed he need o
lowe access cos s o open new ma ke s, and eusable
launche s we e iden i ied as a key solu ion. Howe e , e-
usabili y posed signi ican challenges in echnology ields
like ma e ials, p opulsion, a ionics and ae o he mody-
namics. As a esul , ESA p ojec ed ha eusabili y would
no be easible un il a leas 2005, a imeline needed o
de elop such equi ed echnologies.
The FESTIP p og amme concluded in 1998, iden i ying
he mos p omising eusable launch ehicle concep s bu
ecognising ha mo e echnological ad ancemen s we e
necessa y be o e eusabili y could become iable (Duja -
ic, 1999). This led o he c ea ion o he Fu u e Launch-
e s Technologies P og amme (FLTP) in May 1999. The
FLTP aimed o assess pa ial o ull eusabili y in launch
sys ems, wi h a a ge o de eloping c i ical echnologies
by 2007. Un o una ely, he p og amme was pu on hold
due o disag eemen s o e esou ce dis ibu ion among
membe s a es (Acke mann e al., 2005), highligh ing how
na ional in e es s played a ole in Eu ope’s hesi ance o-
wa ds eusabili y (in he pas like a he p esen ime).
Eu ope, howe e , was awa e o he isks posed by no in-
es ing in eusabili y. As Capo icci (2000) no ed, Eu ope
isked losing i s ma ke sha e i a echnological b eak-
h ough occu ed elsewhe e, especially in he US. This is
why in 2003, he FLTP e ol ed in o he Fu u e Launche s
P epa a o y P og am (FLPP), which o icially s a ed in
Feb ua y 2004. The FLPP shi ed ocus o e ining Eu ope’s
posi ion in he global launche sec o , aking in o accoun
bo h echnological and s a egic ac o s. In 2006, FLPP
Pe iod-1 concluded success ully, while Pe iod-2, hough
in ended o conclude by 2015, lacked a clea inish da e.
The p og amme wo ked o de ine, design, analyse and
es mul iple eusable launche concep s, wi h one no a-
ble success being he In e media e eXpe imen al Vehicle
(IXV), which success ully lew in space. The SpaceRide
p ojec , a mode n e olu ion o IXV, illus a es Eu ope’s
abili y o combine inno a i e echnology wi h p ac ical ap-
plica ions aimed a mee ing u u e ma ke demands.
The 2000s di e ging s a egies: Eu ope s he US
Be ween 1998 and 2004, Eu ope conduc ed ou majo
s udies on eusable launche s bu ne e eached a de ini-
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
S a link 1 S a link 2 Oneweb Konnek
US dolla s pe kilog am o deployed in as uc u e
0
50
100
150
200
250
S a link 1 S a link 2
US dolla s pe Mbps o deployed in as uc u e
1s gen VHTS
Oneweb Konnek
1s gen VHTS
ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e o Economics 93
Fo um
i e decision. This indecision s ands in s a k con as o
US de elopmen s du ing he same pe iod.
In he ea ly 1990s, NASA ini ia ed p og ammes such as
he Del a Clippe Expe imen al (DC-X), a p o o ype o
single-s age eusable launch ehicles. By 2000, he US
al eady had a s ong in e nal demand o launch se ic-
es – 16 launches ha yea , wi h 13 se ing NASA, he De-
pa men o De ense, he Na ional Reconnaissance O ice
and o he go e nmen agencies. This demand p o ided
a s able baseline o in es ing in a p i a e sec o -d i en
space economy.
As he “P esiden ’s Commission on Implemen a ion o
Uni ed S a es Space Explo a ion Policy” ou lined in 2004,
he US ision was a space indus y ha would “con ib-
u e o na ional economic g ow h, p oduce new p oduc s
and lead he wo ld in in en ion and inno a ion” (Ald idge,
2004). Go e nmen con ac s alone we e no enough o
e olu ionise he indus y, so he US ac i ely os e ed a
p i a e space economy buil on eusable echnology.
Eu ope, on he o he hand, lacked simila demand. In
2000, A iane 4 launched ou imes, and A iane 5 only
once. A ianespace s udies in he ea ly 2000s sugges ed
ha Eu ope would need only nine hal -capaci y A iane 5
launches pe yea o a second-gene a ion sa elli e con-
s ella ion (Capo icci, 2000), and la e s udies p ojec ed
ha by 2025, Eu opean ins i u ional needs would ha e
been a ound 25 onnes pe yea , equi ing oughly 11
launches annually om Vega-C and A iane 6 combined
(Lionne & Cuella , 2021). Gi en hese numbe s, de el-
oping a eusable ma ke om sc a ch made li le sense
o Eu ope. The ESA Space Economy Repo (2024) e-
in o ced his, no ing ha Eu ope nowadays s ill lacks he
domes ic demand base enjoyed by he US, China and
Russia.
Wi h limi ed ins i u ional demand and no immedia e com-
me cial ma ke , Eu ope op ed o e ine i s exis ing ex-
pendable sys em a he han pionee eusabili y. This e-
lec s a undamen al di e ence in app oach: he US saw
eusabili y as a means o c ea e new ma ke s, while Eu-
ope ocused on op imising known solu ions.
The consequences o Eu ope’s s a egy
While Eu ope did no neglec space in es men , i s ocus
was di ec ed elsewhe e. The 1990s saw he ounda ion
o Cope nicus and Galileo, lagship sa elli e cons ella-
ions ha oday p o ide ex ensi e Ea h obse a ion and
na iga ion capabili ies. In he ea ly 2000s, A iane 5 was
a compe i i e ocke domina ing he comme cial sa elli e
ma ke .
Howe e , Eu ope’s eluc ance o in es in eusable
launche s had long- e m consequences. Be ween 2006
and 2015, Eu ope accoun ed o 10% o global launches,
while China claimed 17.5% (Alibe i & Tugnoli, 2016). By
2023, he gap widened signi ican ly: China launched 67
ocke s, while Eu ope managed jus h ee (ESA, 2024).
Eu ope’s decision-making e lec ed budge cons ain s,
echnological isk a e sion and na ional poli ical in e -
es s. Unlike he US, which ea ed space as a dis up i e
economic sec o , Eu ope app oached i as a s able go -
e nmen -led indus y. As a esul , while o he na ions pu -
sued g ow h, Eu ope main ained he s a us quo.
The US p i a e sec o boos : In e na ional Space S a ion
as a c i ical ac o
The US also had addi ional incen i es o in es in p i-
a e launch companies. Following he e i emen o he
Space Shu le, he US aced a s a egic dilemma: elying
on Russian Soyuz ocke s o In e na ional Space S a ion
(ISS) access was poli ically and economically un enable.
NASA, cons ained by high cos s, ecognised ha sup-
po ing p i a e-sec o de elopmen was he as es and
mos cos -e ec i e way o ill he gap. In 2005, NASA
launched he Comme cial O bi al T anspo a ion Se -
ices (COTS) p og amme, a mix o go e nmen and p i-
a e unds o de elop space anspo capabili ies, and in
2010 i alloca ed US $50 million in s imulus unds unde
he Comme cial C ew De elopmen (CCDe ) ini ia i e o
ad ance p i a e c ewed space ligh o and om he ISS
(NASA, 2010).
These p og ammes enabled companies like SpaceX o
de elop enough unding o in es in eusable ocke s –
hough eusabili y i sel was no ini ially a equi emen .
The i s Falcon 1 and Falcon 9 i e a ions we e expend-
able, p o ing ha he shi o eusabili y was d i en by p i-
a e ini ia i e a he han go e nmen manda es.
Eu ope, wi h no equi alen c isis o immedia e demand,
ne e aced simila p essu es. Wi hou u gen necessi y
o poli ical will, he shi o eusabili y emained an un e-
sol ed deba e.
The ole o he Eu opean p i a e sec o
A no able excep ion in Eu ope’s la gely go e nmen -d i -
en app oach eme ged in he ea ly 2000s wi h he indus y
conso ium “New Gene a ion Launche P ime Company”
(NGL), o med by EADS (now Ai bus) and Finmeccanica
(now Leona do). The NGL se ou o design and de elop a
eusable launch ehicle and p oposed a oadmap ha be-
gan wi h on-g ound demons a ions o c i ical echnolo-
In e economics 2025 | 2
94
Fo um
gies – especially in s uc u e and p opulsion – wi h he aim
o p og essing o in- ligh es s. The unde lying idea was
ha only a eusable launch ehicle could ul ima ely o e
subs an ial long- e m cos educ ions beyond he inc e-
men al imp o emen s achie able wi h adi ional expend-
able launch ehicles like A iane 5 e ol ing in o A iane 6.
The NGL ma ked he i s ime a p i a e Eu opean con-
so ium p oposed a “p i a e launche ” ou side he di ec
con ol o na ional space agencies. The ques ion emains:
i he NGL had ope a ed unde an Ame ican model, migh
he ou come ha e been di e en ? Eu ope’s space sec-
o has long been shaped by an ideological amewo k
in which signi ican go e nmen al o e sigh p e ails, a
s ance ha has o en slowed echnological ad ancemen
compa ed o he compe i i e, en ep eneu ial spi i ound
in he US.
Today’s condi ion: A iane 6
By 2014, a e 15 yea s o esea ch, epo s and s udies,
Eu ope made i s decision: i would s ick wi h expendabil-
i y and p oceed wi h he A iane 5 successo , he A iane 6
modula launche . Bu is Eu ope apped in a cycle wi h
A iane 6, o is i making genuine p og ess?
A iane 6 was ini ially scheduled o eplace A iane 5 by
2020. Howe e , a combina ion o global challenges – in-
cluding he pandemic, geopoli ical ensions, economic
in la ion and s a egic planning issues – esul ed in sig-
ni ican delays. These se backs ha e hinde ed ESA’s
compe i i eness, pa icula ly o GEO missions, whe e
Eu ope once led he wo ld. A iane 5, while p o en, was
echnologically ou da ed and unable o mee ESA’s ambi-
ious goal o doubling i s annual launch capaci y om six
o wel e.
A iane 6 is no a adical depa u e om i s p edecesso .
I ea u es wo main p opulsion s ages, wi h an inc ease
in heigh o abou 11 me e s, bu i e ains he same wid h
o 5.4 me es as A iane 5. The i s s age is powe ed by
an upda ed e sion o he Vulcan engine used in A iane
5, while he second s age is equipped wi h a new, single-
engine sys em called “Vinci”, eplacing he dual-engine
con igu a ion o A iane 5.
The Vinci engine
The Vinci engine was designed o g ea e lexibili y, as
i can pe o m mul iple bu ns in space – enabling mul i-
ple sa elli e inse ions in o di e en o bi s wi h a single
launch. This was conside ed he key inno a ion o A i-
ane 6, enhancing mission lexibili y and opening he doo
o se icing mul iple cus ome s a once. Howe e , du ing
i s maiden ligh , he Vinci engine ailed on i s second igni-
ion, unde mining i s p ima y ea u e and lea ing behind
dange ous deb is. The second bu n in ac was mean o
sa ely deo bi he second s age, bu ins ead, i emains in
LEO as deb is.
This highligh s a c i ical issue wi h A iane 6: he launche ,
while echnically ad anced, does no ep esen a signi i-
can depa u e om he pas . I s wo solid boos e s con-
igu a ion mi o s ha o A iane 5, wi h he only no able
new ea u e being he Vinci engine. The payload capac-
i y emains la gely unchanged: abou 22 onnes o LEO, a
sligh imp o emen o e 20 onnes o A iane 5, and simila
o GEO missions. A iane 6 has es o ed Eu ope’s so -
e eign capabili y o access space au onomously, bu in
e ms o pushing indus y g ow h o in oducing dis up-
i e echnology, i has no ma ked a b eak h ough.
A iane 6 cos e iciency and iming issues
F om an economic s andpoin , A iane 6 in oduces a
mo e cos -e ec i e app oach. Wi h a simpli ied manu ac-
u ing p ocess, ewe componen s and a mo e e icien
assembly line, i aims o cu cos s by nea ly 50% com-
pa ed o A iane 5. A new p ocu emen model encou ages
compe i ion among supplie s, u he d i ing down cos s.
Howe e , despi e hese ad ancemen s, he i s ligh o
A iane 6 occu ed ou yea s la e han ini ially planned.
O iginally se o 2020, i s maiden ligh ook place in July
2024 – one yea a e he e i emen o A iane 5. This de-
lay, coupled wi h he loss o he Soyuz ocke due o he
Russian in asion o Uk aine and he g ounding o Vega C
a e a ailed 2022 launch, le Eu ope wi hou independ-
en access o space o a yea – a pa adox conside ing
he ex ensi e ESA s udies aimed a p e en ing such a
scena io.
A u u e eusable ocke indus y?
Amid wha ESA’s Di ec o Gene al Jose Aschbache has
called a “launche c isis” in 2023, Eu ope eels he g ow-
ing p essu e o ca ch up wi h SpaceX’s immense suc-
cess. A e 25 yea s o esea ch, Eu ope is now eyeing a
eusable ocke indus y. Howe e , c ea ing such an in-
dus y equi es speci ic ma ke condi ions – condi ions
ha ha e no been nu u ed in Eu ope. Wi h SpaceX’s
S a link al eady domina ing he ci ilian sa elli e sec o , i
may now be oo la e o Eu ope o build a compe i i e e-
usable launche in as uc u e, especially in he absence
o a s ong comme cial space ma ke .
Se e al ini ia i es a e unde way o add ess his gap. The
Eu opean Launche Challenge, app o ed in 2023, aims
o s udy he u u e o Eu opean space anspo a ion.
ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e o Economics 95
Fo um
Meanwhile, p i a e e o s like Maya-Space, a spin-o o
A ianeG oup, a e also making s ides. Maya-Space’s de-
elopmen d aws om ESA’s Themis p og amme, which
is ocused on eusable echnologies, speci ically he e -
ical landing and euse o i s -s age boos e s.
Ye , is his he igh pa h o Eu ope? When we look a
global ends, he US and China a e he only wo majo
powe s in es ing hea ily in eusable ocke s – p ima -
ily because hei la ge-scale demand jus i ies he R&D
cos s. In con as , medium powe s ha e chosen a di e -
en ou e.
The Japan case s udy: A s a egic al e na i e
Japan p esen s a compelling example. Despi e i s p es-
igious space his o y, i has op ed o expendable launch-
e s o i s u u e, as seen wi h he H3 ocke – a modula ,
expendable design simila o A iane 6. Japan’s s a egic
choice is based on i s speci ic goals and esou ce con-
s ain s, dis inguishing i s app oach om ha o he US
and China. Simila ly, Sou h Ko ea’s KARI is de eloping i s
i s ully expendable domes ic launche .
This compa ison o e s aluable insigh s o Eu ope. Like
Japan and Sou h Ko ea, Eu ope‘s s a egic needs a e
di e en han hose o he US o China. Medium powe s
wi h limi ed budge s can achie e signi ican p og ess wi h
a ocused, o wa d- hinking space s a egy. The key is
aligning echnological de elopmen wi h clea , achie able
goals, a he han chasing dis up i e inno a ions simply
o he sake o compe i ion.
The pa h ahead
Eu ope’s space s a egy has been ma ked by echnical
excellence bu lacks a dis up i e ision. While ESA ec-
ognised he po en ial o eusabili y decades ago, limi ed
ins i u ional demand, poli ical cons ain s and isk a e -
sion led Eu ope o p io i ise expendable launche s. By
con as , he US le e aged go e nmen demand o d i e
p i a e in es men , c ea ing a h i ing comme cial space
sec o . Eu ope’s decision o main ain he s a us quo
wo ked o a ime, bu as global compe i ion in ensi ied,
he consequences became clea . Now, wi h China and
he US leading in eusable space ligh , Eu ope aces a
signi ican challenge in egaining i s compe i i eness in
he launch ma ke .
Al hough Eu ope has made s ides in Ea h Obse a ion
and na iga ion sys ems, such as Galileo and Cope nicus,
i s app oach o launche s has been mo e cau ious. Eu-
ope’s decision no o p io i ise eusabili y s emmed om
he co ec assessmen ha such echnology needs a o-
bus LEO ma ke , which i lacked. The US, ecognising he
same, chose o in es in de eloping ha ma ke , unde -
sco ing con as ing isk cul u es be ween he wo powe s.
The eal di e ence was no in de eloping eusable p o o-
ypes, bu in he US’s o wa d- hinking s a egy, backed
by a well-es ablished ins i u ional ma ke . In con as ,
Eu ope lacked bo h he ma ke and he appe i e o he
long- e m in es men s equi ed o eusabili y. Na ional
poli ical in e es s u he shaped Eu ope’s conse a i e
app oach.
Now, Eu ope aces a pi o al decision: in which in as uc-
u es should i in es o compe e globally? Coun ies like
Japan and Sou h Ko ea ha e chosen no o hea ily in es
in eusable in as uc u e, aligning wi h hei capabili-
ies and ambi ions. Eu ope’s u u e in space depends on
whe he i chooses o ede ine i s ambi ions, ake isks
and solidi y i s global posi ion. I s nex s eps will de e -
mine whe he Eu ope ises o he challenges ahead o e-
mains cons ained by i s cu en ajec o y.
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