S ende , F ede ik; Vogel, Tim
Wo king Pape
F om mines o ma ke s: G a i y model insigh s on c i ical
aw ma e ial ade
IDOS Discussion Pape , No. 17/2025
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F om Mines o Ma ke s
G a i y Model Insigh s on C i ical Raw
Ma e ial T ade
F ede ik S ende
Tim Vogel
IDOS DISCUSSION PAPER
17/2025
F om mines o ma ke s
G a i y model insigh s on c i ical aw
ma e ial ade
F ede ik S ende
Tim Vogel
Bonn 2025
D F ede ik S ende is a Senio Resea che in he depa men “T ans o ma ion o Economic and Social
Sys ems” a he Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS) in Bonn.
Email: ede ik.s ende @idos- esea ch.de
D Tim Vogel is a Resea che in he depa men “T ans o ma ion o Economic and Social Sys ems” a he
Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS) in Bonn.
Email: im. ogel@idos- esea ch.de
The Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS) is ins i u ionally inanced by he Fede al Minis y
o Economic Coope a ion and De elopmen (BMZ), based on a esolu ion o he Ge man Bundes ag, and he
s a e o No h Rhine-Wes phalia (NRW) as a membe o he Johannes-Rau-Fo schungsgemeinscha (JRF).
Sugges ed ci a ion:
S ende , F., & Vogel, T. (2025). F om mines o ma ke s: G a i y model insigh s on c i ical aw ma e ial ade (IDOS
Discussion Pape 17/2025). Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS).
h ps://doi.o g/10.23661/idp17.2025
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P in ed on eco- iendly, ce i ied pape .
IDOS Discussion Pape 17/2025
III
Abs ac
Access o c i ical aw ma e ials (CRMs) is inc easingly being shaped by geopoli ical dynamics,
uelling a global compe i ion o supply secu i y. This pape applies he g a i y model o ade o
examine how OECD coun ies le e age Aid o T ade (A T), Bila e al In es men T ea ies (BITs),
and P e e en ial T ade Ag eemen s (PTAs) o in luence CRM impo s om de eloping coun ies.
Using ex ensi e bila e al panel da a om 1995 o 2023, we ind ha PTAs a e pa icula ly
e ec i e, a ec ing bo h he in ensi e and ex ensi e ma gins o ade. These indings highligh
he s a egic ole o o mal ade ag eemen s and sugges ha a coo dina ed policy mix o ade
diplomacy, in es men , and aid is essen ial o esilien and di e si ied CRM supplies.
Keywo ds: Aid o T ade; Bila e al In es men T ea ies; c i ical aw ma e ials; ex ensi e ma gin;
in ensi e ma gin; g a i y model; P e e en ial T ade Ag eemen s
JEL Classi ica ion: F13; F14; F15; F21; F35; F53
IDOS Discussion Pape 17/2025
IV
Acknowledgemen s
We a e g a e ul o Cla a B andi, Lukas Ko nhe , and Tim Rö hel o hei insigh ul commen s
and sugges ions on an ea lie d a o his pape . We also hank Rod igo Polanco o gene ously
p o iding cus omised da a om he Elec onic Da abase o In es men T ea ies (EDIT). The
iews exp essed in his pape a e solely ou own, and any emaining e o s a e ou
esponsibili y.
IDOS Discussion Pape 17/2025
V
Con en s
Abs ac III
Acknowledgemen s IV
Abb e ia ions VI
1 In oduc ion 1
2 Empi ical s a egy and da a 2
3 Resul s 4
4 Conclusions 8
Re e ences 9
Appendix 11
Tables
Table 1: Baseline esul s 4
Table 2: Policy in e ac ion esul s 6
Table 3: Resul s by supply chain s age 7
Appendix Tables
Table A1: Expo ing coun ies in he sample 11
Table A2: Impo ing coun ies in he sample 12
Table A3: Lis o base c i ical aw ma e ials used o compu a ion o dependen a iable 13
Table A4: Summa y s a is ics 13
IDOS Discussion Pape 17/2025
VI
Abb e ia ions
A T Aid o T ade
BACI Base pou l’Analyse du Comme ce In e na ional
BIT Bila e al In es men T ea y
CRM c i ical aw ma e ial
CTIP Clean T ade and In es men Pa ne ship
DAC OECD De elopmen Assis ance Commi ee
EU Eu opean Union
FDI Fo eign Di ec In es men
HS Ha monised Sys em
LPM linea p obabili y model
MFN Mos Fa ou ed Na ion
MSP Mine als Secu i y Pa ne ship
OECD O ganisa ion o Economic Co-ope a ion and De elopmen
PPML Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood
PTA P e e en ial T ade Ag eemen
USD US dolla
IDOS Discussion Pape 17/2025
1
1 In oduc ion
Ou mode n wo ld uns on c i ical aw ma e ials (CRMs). Elemen s like li hium, cobal and a e
ea h me als a e key ing edien s behind elec ic ehicles, semiconduc o s, and wind u bines,
placing hem a he hea o high- ech inno a ion and he g een ene gy ansi ion. As a esul ,
CRMs ha e become a op p io i y on poli ical and economic agendas wo ldwide (see, o
ins ance, The Economis , 2023).
While high-income coun ies and global powe s such as Aus alia, Canada, and – mos no ably
– China hold subs an ial ese es o CRMs, signi ican deposi s also lie in low- and middle-
income coun ies, many o which emain comme cially un apped. Howe e , access o hese
esou ces is o en cons ained no only by ex ac ion challenges bu also by geopoli ical
dependencies, uelling a global ace o secu e supplies (see, o ins ance, UNCTAD [Uni ed
Na ions Con e ence on T ade and De elopmen ], 2024; WEF [Wo ld Economic Fo um], 2024).
This compe i ion is eshaping in e na ional ela ions, p omp ing leading economies o espond
s a egically. The Eu opean Union (EU), o example, has inco po a ed CRM- ela ed p o isions
in o i s ade deals, wi h he e ised EU-Chile ag eemen se ing as a no able example.
Howe e , he EU’s app oach is expanding beyond adi ional ade ools, inc easingly in eg a ing
a wide a ay o o eign policy ools o secu e eliable CRM access. Recen ly, i launched
nego ia ions o Clean T ade and In es men Pa ne ships (CTIPs), aimed a o malising
bila e al ies while p io i ising inancial suppo and in es men o c i ical supply chains –
complemen ing i s b oade Global Ga eway ini ia i e. Simila ly, he Uni ed Kingdom and he
Uni ed S a es ha e leaned owa d in es men -led s a egies o e con en ional ade deals, bo h
being ounding membe s o he Mine als Secu i y Pa ne ship (MSP), which mobilises public
and p i a e capi al o suppo CRM mining and p ocessing p ojec s in de eloping coun ies.
This pape o e s a mac o-le el, empi ical pe spec i e on his e ol ing landscape. To ou
knowledge, i is he i s o apply he g a i y model o ade o sys ema ically assess how h ee
ade- ela ed policy ins umen s ha e shaped OECD (O ganisa ion o Economic Co-ope a ion
and De elopmen ) coun ies’ CRM impo s om de eloping coun ies. We ocus on Aid o T ade
(A T), Bila e al In es men T ea ies (BITs), and P e e en ial T ade Ag eemen s (PTAs) as
p oxies o shi ing policy complexi ies, selec ed o hei ele ance and a ailabili y o eliable,
comp ehensi e da a.
Each o hese ins umen s se es dis inc , ye complemen a y, pu poses: PTAs o malise ade
ies and suppo b oade policy coope a ion; BITs help a ac Fo eign Di ec In es men (FDI)
and signal s able in es men condi ions; and A T p o ides a ge ed inancial suppo o
s eng hen in as uc u e o p oduc i e capaci y. Toge he , hese ins umen s can o m a
s a egic policy mix o building long- e m supplie pa ne ships. Whe he hey do so, and o wha
ex en , emains an empi ical ques ion. Ou analysis explo es hei in luence on bo h he in ensi e
(deepening ade ela ionships) and he ex ensi e (ac i a ing supplie links in unde u ilised
ma ke s) ma gins o ade.
We build on wo s ands o ecen g a i y model li e a u e. Fi s , we engage wi h he nascen
body o esea ch on he de e minan s o ade in c i ical esou ces – bo h in agg ega ed con ex s
(e.g., Fa ag & Zaki, 2025; Zhong & Su, 2023) and in speci ic sec o s such as uels (e.g., Ba nes
& Boswo h, 2015; Fa ag & Zaki, 2023; Zhang e al., 2018), and a e ea h me als (e.g.,
Shige omi e al., 2017; Yaseen e al., 2025). While his li e a u e highligh s he impo ance o
coun y-speci ic supply-side and demand-side ac o s, (bila e al) o eign policy ools emain
unde explo ed.
Second, om a me hodological pe spec i e, we d aw on s udies analysing A T, BITs, and PTAs
in b oade o mo e siloed amewo ks (e.g., Calì & e Velde, 2011; Heid & Vozzo, 2020; Ma oo
e al. 2022; S ende & Vogel, 2025; Xiong, 2022). By b idging hese pe spec i es, ou pape
IDOS Discussion Pape 17/2025
8
4 Conclusions
Unde s anding he impac o o eign policy ools on CRM ade is i al o policymake s in bo h
high-income and de eloping coun ies. Fo ad anced economies, s able and sus ainable access
o CRMs is c ucial o economic secu i y and indus ial compe i i eness. Fo de eloping
coun ies, ade- ela ed policies o e pa hways o in eg a e in o global alue chains and a ac
in es men in CRM ex ac ion and p ocessing.
Ou empi ical analysis e eals ha PTAs signi ican ly enhance he CRM impo s o OECD
coun ies om de eloping coun ies, a ec ing bo h he in ensi e and ex ensi e ma gins o ade.
In con as , BITs p ima ily in luence he in ensi e ma gin, while A T suppo s he ex ensi e
ma gin.
These indings sugges ha ad anced economies should no ocus solely on inancial
assis ance and in es men o secu e CRM access bu should also keep PTAs i mly in ocus. A
well-calib a ed policy mix – combining ade diplomacy, in es men , and a ge ed aid – is likely
essen ial o esilien and di e si ied CRM supplies.
In e es ingly, nei he he dep h o PTAs no he complexi y o BITs appea s o be decisi e. In
some cases, he p o isions con ained in PTAs may e en hinde he de elopmen o new supplie
ela ionships. Sec o al eg essions u he indica e ha PTAs a e linked o ade in downs eam
CRM p ocessing. This sugges s ha PTAs may p omo e local alue addi ion by encou aging
CRM e inemen wi hin de eloping coun ies be o e expo , gene a ing local con en , and
suppo ing p o-de elopmen ou comes.
IDOS Discussion Pape 17/2025
9
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IDOS Discussion Pape 17/2025
11
Appendix
Table A1: Expo ing coun ies in he sample
A ghanis an
Ghana
Palau
Albania
G enada
Pales ine
Alge ia
Gua emala
Panama
Angola
Guinea
Papua New Guinea
Anguilla
Guinea-Bissau
Pa aguay
An igua and Ba buda
Guyana
Pe u
A gen ina
Hai i
Philippines
A menia
Hondu as
Rwanda
A uba
Hong Kong
Sain Helena, Asc. and T . da C.
Aze baijan
India
Sain Ki s and Ne is
Bahamas
Indonesia
Sain Lucia
Bah ain
I an
Sain Vincen and he G enadines
Bangladesh
I aq
Samoa
Ba bados
Is ael
Sao Tome and P incipe
Bela us
Jamaica
Saudi A abia
Belize
Jo dan
Senegal
Benin
Kazakhs an
Se bia
Be muda
Kenya
Seychelles
Bhu an
Ki iba i
Sie a Leone
Boli ia
Ko ea, Democ a ic People’s Republic o
Singapo e
Bosnia and He zego ina
Ko ea, Republic o
Sin Maa en
Bo swana
Ky gyzs an
Slo enia
B azil
Lao People’s Democ a ic Republic
Solomon Islands
Bu kina Faso
Lebanon
Somalia
Bu undi
Leso ho
Sou h A ica
Cabo Ve de
Libe ia
Sou h Sudan
Cambodia
Libya
S i Lanka
Came oon
Macao
Sudan
Cayman Islands
Madagasca
Su iname
Cen al A ican Republic
Malawi
Sy ian A ab Republic
Chad
Malaysia
Tajikis an
Chile
Maldi es
Tanzania
China
Mali
Thailand
Colombia
Mal a
Timo -Les e
Como os
Ma shall Islands
Togo
Congo
Mau i ania
Tokelau
Cook Islands
Mau i ius
Tonga
Cos a Rica
Mayo e
T inidad and Tobago
Cô e d’I oi e
Mexico
Tunisia
C oa ia
Mic onesia
Tu key
Cuba
Moldo a
Tu kmenis an
IDOS Discussion Pape 17/2025
12
Cyp us
Mongolia
Tu ks and Caicos Islands
Democ a ic Republic o Congo
Mon eneg o
Tu alu
Djibou i
Mon se a
Uganda
Dominica
Mo occo
Uk aine
Dominican Republic
Mozambique
Uni ed A ab Emi a es
Ecuado
Myanma
U uguay
Egyp
Namibia
Uzbekis an
El Sal ado
Nau u
Vanua u
Equa o ial Guinea
Nepal
Venezuela
E i ea
New Caledonia
Vie Nam
Eswa ini
Nica agua
Vi gin Islands
E hiopia
Nige
Wallis and Fu una
Fiji
Nige ia
Yemen
F ench Polynesia
Niue
Zambia
Gabon
No h Macedonia
Zimbabwe
Gambia
Oman
Geo gia
Pakis an
Table A2: Impo ing coun ies in he sample
Aus alia Denma k I eland Ne he lands Spain
Aus ia Es onia I aly No way Sweden
Belgium Finland Japan Poland Swi ze land
Bulga ia F ance La ia Po ugal Uni ed Kingdom
Canada Ge many Li huania Romania Uni ed S a es
C oa ia G eece Luxembou g Slo akia
Czech Republic Hunga y Mal a Slo enia
IDOS Discussion Pape 17/2025
13
Table A3: Lis o base c i ical aw ma e ials used o compu a ion o dependen a iable
Aluminium Dysp osium I idium Phospha e ock Tan alum
An imony E bium Lan hanum Phospho us Tellu ium
A senic Eu opium Li hium Pla inum Te bium
Ba y e Feldspa Lu e ium P aseodymium Thulium
Be yllium Fluo spa Magnesium Ra e ea h elemen s Ti anium me al
Bismu h Gadolinium Manganese Rhodium Tungs en
Bo on Gallium Na u al g aphi e Ru henium Vanadium
Ce ium Ge manium Neodymium Sama ium Y e bium
Cobal Ha nium Nickel Scandium Y ium
Coking coal Helium Niobium Silicon me al
Coppe Holmium Palladium S on ium
Table A4: Summa y s a is ics
Obs. Mean S anda d
De ia ion Min. Max.
𝑀𝑀 (impo s [in ensi e ma gin]) 157,696 25,166 264,363 0 16,344,856
𝑀𝑀 (impo dummy [ex ensi e
ma gin]))
157,696 0.40 0.49 0 1
𝑀𝑀 (mining impo s) 157,696 12,856 207,015 0 16,331,429
𝑀𝑀 (p ocessed impo s) 157,696 9,801 115,368 0 7,861,460
𝑀𝑀 ( ab ica ed impo s) 157,696 3,476 48,605 0 4,390,963
𝑀𝑀 ( ecycled impo s) 157,696 2,089 30,215 0 3,318,267
𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 157,696 1,985 25,582 -18,309 3,395,840
𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 157,696 0.22 0.41 0 1
𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 𝑑𝑑𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑡𝑡ℎ (non-no malised) 157,696 221.41 538.14 0 3,466
𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 𝑑𝑑𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑡𝑡ℎ 157,696 0.04 0.10 0 0.67
𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐴𝐴 157,696 0.20 0.40 0 1
𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐴𝐴 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑥𝑥𝑎𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑐𝑐 (non-no malised) 157,696 12.66 24.37 0 150
𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐴𝐴 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑥𝑥𝑎𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑐𝑐 157,696 0.08 0.16 0 1
No es: CRM ade is measu ed in cu en million USD, excep o he ex ensi e ma gin; A T da a a e in cons an
million USD.
