Ansa i, Dawud; Geh ung, Rosa Melissa; Pepe, Jacopo Ma ia
Resea ch Repo
The Gul S a es, China, and Cen al Asia's g een ene gy
sec o : In e ac ions pa e ns, geopoli ical dynamics, and
implica ions o he EU and Ge many
SWP Commen , No. 5/2025
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Ge man Ins i u e o In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s,
Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ansa i, Dawud; Geh ung, Rosa Melissa; Pepe, Jacopo Ma ia (2025) : The Gul
S a es, China, and Cen al Asia's g een ene gy sec o : In e ac ions pa e ns, geopoli ical dynamics,
and implica ions o he EU and Ge many, SWP Commen , No. 5/2025, S i ung Wissenscha und
Poli ik (SWP), Be lin,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18449/2025C05
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NO.
5
JANUARY 2025
In oduc ion
The Gul S a es, China, and
Cen al Asia’s G een Ene gy Sec o
In e ac ions Pa e ns, Geopoli ical Dynamics, and Implica ions o he EU and Ge many
Dawud Ansa i, Rosa Melissa Geh ung, and Jacopo Ma ia Pepe
Cen al Asian economies, pa icula ly Kazakhs an and Uzbekis an, a e pu suing in-
c easingly ambi ious goals o enewable ene gy. Apa om China – an es ablished
playe in he ma ke – i has inc easingly been Gul coun ies ha ha e been imple-
men ing espec i e p ojec s, pa icula ly Saudi A abia and, o a lesse ex en , he
Uni ed A ab Emi a es (UAE). Bo h China and Gul coun ies seem o ha e ound a co-
ope a i e app oach ha is based on sha ing he Cen al Asian ma ke along he alue
chain. This app oach could be a bluep in o u u e Gul -China ela ions, which ha e
become ele an o global poli ics. Simul aneously, he dynamics also exempli y
he g owing numbe o ene gy and geopoli ical dynamics o e which Eu ope has li le
in luence. Fo he Eu opean Union (EU) and Ge many, he de elopmen s se e as a
eminde : While in a-Asian dynamics a e gaining impo ance, Ge many and he EU
isk being ma ginalised in ma e s conce ning ene gy, clima e, and geopoli ics – and
no jus in Cen al Asia. In esponse, a mo e consis en Cen al Asia s a egy is e-
qui ed, alongside a cons uc i e and non-ideological app oach owa ds ela ions wi h
he A ab Gul S a es.
G ea e Asia – a egion anging om he
A ab Gul S a es o Japan, and om Russia o
Aus alia – is cha ac e ised by new in a-
and ans egional dynamics in which ene gy
and clima e policy play a cen al ole. A
s iking example is he cu en in es men
landscape in he Cen al Asian na ions
o Kazakhs an and Uzbekis an. He e, China
and, abo e all, Saudi A abia and he UAE
ha e commi ed o expanding enewable en-
e gy and inc easingly domina e his sec o .
The iangula ela ionship be ween Gul
ac o s, China, and Cen al Asian coun ies
is e ol ing wi hin a geopoli ically complex
en i onmen . T adi ionally, Russia has
played a signi ican ole in Cen al Asia’s
ene gy policy and is s i ing o de end i s
subs an ial in luence – pa icula ly in he
ossil ene gy sec o and egional ene gy in-
as uc u e – agains ex e nal ac o s, mos
no ably China. O he ele an ac o s in Cen-
al Asia include Tü kiye and I an, especially
in he secu i y sec o . S eng hened ies
be ween he Gul S a es, China, and Cen al
Asian coun ies could, he e o e, ha e epe -
cussions o he b oade egion.
SWP Commen 5
Janua y 2025
2
Mo eo e , how he Gul S a es and China
(in e -)ac in Cen al Asia could also in lu-
ence hei bila e al ela ions signi ican ly.
This dynamic hin s a how he wo eme g-
ing playe s migh in e ac and how hei
inc easingly signi ican ela ions could
un old in he long un. So a , hei engage-
men in Cen al Asia has been mos ly col-
labo a i e, bes exempli ied by ini ial join
p ojec s. Fo ins ance, ACWA Powe –
Saudi A abia’s na ional champion o powe
gene a ion, desalina ion, and hyd ogen p o-
duc ion – is implemen ing a majo Uzbek
p ojec designed by Powe China wi hin he
con ex o China’s Bel and Road Ini ia i e.
This ollows in es men s by he Chinese Silk
Road Fund, which has held a 49 pe cen
s ake in ACWA Powe Renewable Ene gy
Holding since 2019. How his ans egional
ela ionship de elops will depend, no leas ,
on whe he coexis ence e ol es in o coope a-
ion o con lic in he long e m, wi h Cen-
al Asia se ing as a es ing g ound.
Cen al Asia’s ene gy ansi ion:
Aspi a ions and cons ain s
Gi en he sca ci y o wa e in Cen al Asia,
he egion is highly ulne able o he im-
pac s o clima e change. This makes amp-
ing up enewable ene gy a s aigh o wa d
s ep. Addi ionally, he desi e o economic
and poli ical di e si ica ion as well as ene gy
secu i y plays a key ole. Kazakhs an, o
example, plans o sou ce 35 pe cen o i s
elec ici y om enewable ene gy (includ-
ing hyd opowe ) by 2035, amoun ing o an
es ima ed 12 o 16 GW. Cu en ly, he sha e
s ands a 14 pe cen . Leading he change a e
en i ies such as Sam uk-Kazyna, he Kazakh
In es men De elopmen Fund, and he
Minis y o Ene gy.
Uzbekis an, on he o he hand, aims o
inc ease he sha e o sola and wind ene gy
in i s elec ici y gene a ion o 40 pe cen
(app oxima ely 27 GW) by 2030, up om 15
pe cen in 2023. Key playe s he e include
he local join -s ock company Na ional Elec-
ic G id o Uzbekis an and he Minis y o
In es men s. In 2018, Kazakhs an in o-
duced auc ions o cons uc ion and ope a -
ing igh s o new powe plan s using e-
newable ene gy. Since 2019, Uzbekis an
has p omo ed collabo a ion on enewable
ene gy p ojec s h ough public–p i a e
pa ne ships, employing bo h di ec nego-
ia ions and open ende s. Bo h coun ies
also o e ax exemp ions and subsidies o
enewable ene gy, al hough incen i es o
ossil uels pe sis .
The p ima y d i e o his g een push is
local ene gy de ici s. Despi e conside able
con en ional ene gy ese es, Kazakhs an
aces he challenge o expanding gas p o-
cessing and elec ici y-gene a ion capaci y
o keep pace wi h apid popula ion g ow h.
Meanwhile, Uzbekis an is g appling wi h
declining gas p oduc ion. In esponse, Rus-
sia has ac i ely sough o expand i s gas ex-
po s o he egion. Howe e , Cen al Asian
coun ies a e inc easingly aiming o a oid
o e dependence on indi idual s a es – a
conce n heigh ened by Russia’s wa agains
Uk aine, which has spa ked egional ea s
ega ding ene gy secu i y. The expansion o
g een ene gy hus also aligns wi h egional
goals o di e si ica ion.
Ne e heless, Kazakhs an and Uzbekis an
lack he capi al, expe ise, and indus ial
capaci y o achie e hese ambi ions inde-
penden ly. Al hough China’s dominan ole
in he sec o has os e ed some p og ess, i
has also c ea ed dependencies. The g owing
engagemen o he Gul S a es p o ides
an oppo uni y o hem o s eng hen hei
le e age agains la ge neighbou s and
s i e o a balance o powe among a g ow-
ing numbe o ac o s.
The Gul S a es and China:
Bila e al dynamics and
in e ac ion in Cen al Asia
G owing in e dependence
Beyond Cen al Asia, ela ions be ween he
Gul S a es and China ha e s eadily deep-
ened, some imes e ol ing in o mu ual
dependency. China is he la ges pu chase
o Gul oil and gas expo s, wi h he Gul
SWP Commen 5
Janua y 2025
3
S a es showing ba ely any plans o mi iga e
associa ed isks. Mo eo e , China has quie ly
made signi ican in es men s in he Gul
S a es. I is now esponsible o he majo i y
o new in es men s in ce ain Gul indus y
clus e s, e ec i ely becoming a sha eholde
in he egion’s indus ial de elopmen .
China is also in ol ed in enewable ene gy
p ojec s in he Gul , including hyd ogen
ini ia i es. Beijing’s choice o Saudi A abia
as he ma ke o i s ecen ly issued US dol-
la -denomina ed go e nmen bonds unde -
sco es he in ensi ying collabo a ion be-
ween he wo na ions.
Fo hei pa , he Gul S a es ha e become
pi o al o China’s g owing diploma ic am-
bi ions. In I aq, Beijing has made mul iple
a emp s a diploma ic in e en ion, albei
wi h limi ed success. Al hough China’s ole
in media ing he app ochemen be ween
Saudi A abia and I an in ea ly 2023 should
no be o e s a ed – Oman and I aq we e
he main b oke s – he ac o s delibe a ely
chose China as a diploma ically neu al
enue. Few coun ies possess compa able
in luence while main aining an appea ance
o impa iali y.
Despi e i s limi ed o eign policy capac-
i ies, China is pe cei ed by he Gul S a es
as a neu al, p agma ic, and cons uc i e
ac o . Fo Beijing, he Gul ep esen s a sig-
ni ican oppo uni y o expand i s economic
and diploma ic capabili ies. The Gul S a es,
in u n, see deepe ela ions wi h China as a
means o be e posi ion hemsel es wi hin
he eme ging mul ipola o de . No ably,
China played a c i ical ole in in i ing Saudi
A abia and he UAE o join he BRICS g oup.
None heless, he cu en model o eco-
nomic coope a ion could ace limi a ions in
he medium e m. Socioeconomic ac o s
a e p omp ing he Gul S a es o seek g ea e
alue c ea ion, pa icula ly o gene a e em-
ploymen and expand so powe . Cu en ly,
he Gul S a es a e ocusing on inancing,
p ojec de elopmen , and echnology p o-
ision in he enewable ene gy sec o ; how-
e e , hei manu ac u ing capabili ies, such
as o sola modules, a e minimal. None-
heless, e o s a e unde way o change his;
o ins ance, Saudi A abia has begun de el-
oping domes ic manu ac u ing capaci ies
o elec ic ehicles, despi e ques ionable
economic iabili y.
China adi ionally domina es he manu-
ac u ing sec o , which could lead o con-
lic s o e he con ol o alue chains i he
Gul S a es expand hei in luence. This
could also in ensi y compe i ion o egions
ich in c i ical esou ces. As a esul , i
emains unclea whe he he cu en model
o economic di ision will endu e o whe he
China will eac o he Gul S a es’ aspi a-
ions. Tensions could e en ex end beyond
ene gy- ela ed indus ies, pa icula ly i
he Gul S a es a ge sec o s adi ionally
domina ed by China o en e new manu ac-
u ing ma ke s. Such ambi alen dynamics
a e al eady e iden in he g een ene gy
sec o in Cen al Asia.
Mo i es and in e ac ion pa e ns
in Cen al Asia
Alongside Russia, China is one o he mos
signi ican ene gy playe s in Cen al Asia,
pa icula ly in he ossil ene gy sec o and
ene gy in as uc u e. In ecen yea s,
China has inc easingly engaged in enew-
able ene gy alue chains, aligning wi h he
p e e ences o local go e nmen s, pa icu-
la ly in Kazakhs an and Uzbekis an. A bi-
la e al amewo k ag eemen wi h Kazakh-
s an, es ablished in 2015, acili a ed he
en y o Chinese companies in o he ma -
ke . S a ing in 2019, Chinese i ms gained
access o Uzbekis an’s enewable ene gy
ma ke h ough success ul bids in public
ende s. Howe e , di ec coope a ion on
enewable ene gy p ojec s only began in
2021, when enewable ene gy became he
subjec o he wo coun ies’ i s g een
diploma ic agenda. Based on hei decade-
long s a egic pa ne ship, he wo na ions
signed a coope a ion ag eemen in 2023,
solidi ying China’s in ol emen in Uzbeki-
s an’s enewable ene gy sec o .
China’s inc easing engagemen in bo h
coun ies e lec s a shi in i s in es men
s a egy, mo ing away om pu ely loan-
based inancing owa ds equi y in es men s.
This change add esses c i icisms o China’s
SWP Commen 5
Janua y 2025
4
“deb - ap diplomacy” while esponding o
g owing c edi de aul isks and Beijing’s
mo e conse a i e lending policies.
O e he pas decade, he Gul S a es ha e
unde gone a simila s a egic ans o ma-
ion, ocusing on de eloping new economic
sec o s and enhancing hei so powe .
Thei economic di e si ica ion e o s a e
d i en by wo p ima y ac o s. Fi s , he e is
a desi e o posi ion hemsel es as eme ging
middle powe s wi h b oade ambi ions and
a mo e p ominen ole in in e na ional po-
li ical and diploma ic a ai s. Second, demo-
g aphic changes – pa icula ly he apid
g ow h o he you h popula ion en e ing
he labou ma ke – a e challenging adi-
ional business models in some Gul S a es.
Rising you h unemploymen has c ea ed an
u gen need o job c ea ion, which equi es
explo ing new sec o s and inding inno a-
i e en y poin s in o alue chains.
To achie e hese goals, Gul S a es a e
elying hea ily on public unding, p ima ily
sou ced om so e eign weal h unds. These
unds a e used o s a egically in es in o -
eign companies o o os e and es ablish
na ional champions, which a e no only
in ended o se e domes ic ma ke s, bu
also designed o compe e in in e na ional
ma ke s. Al hough hese e o s a e mainly
economically and inancially mo i a ed,
so powe emains a welcome side e ec
in mos indus ies.
Saudi A abia, and o a lesse ex en he
UAE, ha e es ablished a signi ican p es-
ence in he egion as la ecome s, pa icula ly
in Uzbekis an. This de elopmen is pa ly
acili a ed by cul u al p oximi y (whe eas
Kazakhs an has his o ically main ained
close ies wi h China). Since 2022, egula
mee ings ha e been held be ween he Gul
Coope a ion Council and he i e Cen al
Asian s a es o s eng hen poli ical and
s a egic ela ions.
O e all, he alignmen o go e nance
models be ween China, he Gul S a es, and
Cen al Asia se es as a key link o os e
coope a ion.
Economic ac o s and ini ial
join p ojec s
In line wi h hei con e ging app oaches
and in e es s, he i s ila e al p ojec s a e
beginning o ake shape. The Saudi com-
pany ACWA Powe , now one o he wo ld’s
la ges de elope s o enewable ene gy
in as uc u e, plays a c i ical ole in he
egion, c ea ing syne gies wi h China. These
syne gies a e pa icula ly e iden in wind
ene gy p ojec s, o en de eloped in collabo-
a ion wi h Chinese companies and inan-
cie s such as he China-ini ia ed Asian
In as uc u e In es men Bank, he Bank
o China, he Silk Road Fund, and China
Sou he n Powe G id In e na ional. These
en i ies se e ei he as di ec inancie s o
as s akeholde s in special-pu pose holdings
es ablished by ACWA o speci ic p ojec s,
such as he planned wind a ms in Dzhan-
keldy and Bash in Uzbekis an.
Companies om he UAE, such as AMEA
Powe and Masda (bo h in sola ene gy),
as well as Abu Dhabi Na ional Ene gy Com-
pany PJSC (TAQA) and Viso In e na ional
DMCC (bo h in wind ene gy), ha e ini ially
been in ol ed in cons uc ing acili ies wi h
capaci ies anging om ens o low hun-
d eds o megawa s in Cen al Asia. O e
he pas h ee yea s, his end has accele -
a ed signi ican ly. These companies o en
ope a e independen ly o in pa ne ship
wi h local minis ies. An example is Mas-
da ’s oadmap ag eemen o build a wind
a m in Kazakhs an’s Jambyl Region.
In some cases, Gul S a es ha e secu ed
con ac s wi h compe i i e bids, ou com-
pe ing China. Ne e heless, China emains
in ol ed in mos p ojec s – ei he as a
p ojec de elope ; a con ac o o enginee -
ing, p ocu emen , and cons uc ion (e.g. in
Uzbekis an’s i s g een hyd ogen p ojec );
as a supplie ; o h ough di ec nego ia ions
o s akes in Gul companies.
Chinese and Gul companies sha e se -
e al cha ac e is ics: They a e na ional
champions building hei p ojec po olios
in hei home ma ke s o quali y o global
compe i ion; hey a e s a e-backed; and,
pa icula ly o China, hei guiding p in-
SWP Commen 5
Janua y 2025
5
ciple is o expand along he alue chain
( om supplie and con ac o o de elope ).
Fo he Gul S a es, he appeal o Cen al
Asia lies in he ela i e ease and speed o
p ojec implemen a ion, enabled by he
ypically “ op-down” go e nance sys ems
in bo h egions.
Po en ial o geopoli ical shi s in
he egion
The expansion o he cu en coope a ion
model o uncon en ional ene gy and cli-
ma e echnologies – such as hyd ogen o
ca bon cap u e and s o age – appea s likely.
Howe e , i emains unce ain whe he he
ela ionships be ween China, Saudi A abia/
he UAE, and Kazakhs an/Uzbekis an (o
beyond) will e ol e in o deepe ila e al
pa ne ships. Al hough o ums exis o
enhance collabo a ion, in e ac ions emain
la gely bila e al o now. Kazakhs an and
Uzbekis an would be he p ima y bene i-
cia ies o ila e alisa ion, as i could help
hem educe dependence on Russia and
mi iga e asymme ies in hei g een ene gy
ela ions wi h China. Fo o he pa ies, i
emains unclea whe he expanding ad hoc
coope a ion in o a mo e comp ehensi e pa -
ne ship would yield ad an ages. Medium-
o long- e m geopoli ical ensions could
eme ge.
China has s eng hened i s posi ion in
he egion using his o ical ies and has sig-
ni ican ly expanded i s in luence. Mean-
while, Moscow mus wa ch om he side-
lines due o i s g owing dependence on
Beijing. While China p ima ily main ains
bila e al ela ions wi h he egion, i has
also es ablished mul ila e al o ums such
as he “China plus Cen al Asia” o ma o
be e coo dina e i s egional policies. Addi-
ionally, i uses pla o ms such as he Shang-
hai Coope a ion O ganisa ion o con inually
adjus i s ela ions wi h Russia wi hin he
egion. The di ision o labou be ween Rus-
sia and China in Cen al Asia pe sis s, acili-
a ed by China’s economic dominance.
The weakening o Russia’s in luence in
Cen al Asia and China’s g owing p esence
ha e so a de eloped g adually a he han
dis up i ely, making sudden changes o
ab up eac ions unlikely. Howe e , he
eme gence o he Gul S a es as new playe s
ep esen s a signi ican shi . Thei cu en
ocus is limi ed o a speci ic echno-eco-
nomic niche, pa icula ly enewable ene gy.
This na ow ocus has allowed hem o
es ablish a p esence in he egion wi hou
p o oking no able con lic s o eac ions
om compe i o s. O he egional powe s,
such as I an, Russia, and Tü kiye, a e la gely
unable o compe e wi h he Gul S a es in
he enewable ene gy sec o , o wi h China.
In he medium e m, howe e , s onge
compe i ion wi h egional powe s such as
Tü kiye, I an, and Russia could a ise i he
Gul S a es expand hei in luence o o he
economic sec o s o secu i y issues. These
powe s migh iew he Gul S a es as i als,
p omp ing co esponding esponses ha
could des abilise he egion. Al hough he
Gul S a es ha e s a egically buil ela ion-
ships wi h hese ac o s o a oid hos ili ies –
such as he UAE’s s eng hened economic
and secu i y coope a ion wi h Moscow, and
Saudi A abia’s diploma ic o e u es o Tü -
kiye, despi e domes ic an i-A ab sen imen –
di ec ly hos ile measu es such as sanc ions
o p ice wa s in he oil and gas sec o seem
unlikely in he sho e m.
In he long e m, howe e , inc eased
Saudi o Emi a i engagemen in he egion
would equi e cos ly diploma ic hedging o
p e en ensions. Gul S a es mus ca e ully
assess whe he he bene i s o expanding
hei ole in Cen al Asia beyond hei cu -
en echno-economic ocus jus i y he
po en ial cos s.
China aces simila conside a ions. On
he one hand, i is expec ed o con inue
s eng hening i s p esence in he egion,
pa icula ly in he a ea o g een echnolo-
gies o he u u e, whe eas o he egional
powe s, including Russia, a e unlikely o
ollow sui . On he o he hand, enewable
ene gy is a s a egic sec o c ucial o Cen al
Asia’s u u e. New egional ene gy sys ems,
indus ies, and economic and ene gy spaces
a e al eady beginning o ake shape, c ea -
ing new ela ionships and dependencies.
SWP Commen 5
Janua y 2025
6
Implica ions and ecommen-
da ions o he EU and Ge many
The eme gence o join enewable ene gy
p ojec s be ween Cen al Asia, he Gul , and
China a e an ea ly signal o mul ila e al
coope a ion. I emains unclea o wha
ex en hese economic s uc u es will also
mani es in geopoli ical o e en secu i y-
ela ed dynamics in he medium e m.
Rega dless, his mode o in e ac ion could
be a bluep in o he inc easingly signi i-
can ela ions be ween he Gul S a es and
China on a global scale, making i highly
ele an in o eign and geopoli ical e ms.
Mo eo e , i cons i u es ano he example
o in a-Asian in e connec edness ha is
e ol ing beyond he each o he EU and
Ge many. This has a - eaching implica-
ions o Eu ope ha ex end beyond he
ene gy sec o o Cen al Asia.
A new s a egic unde s anding o he
complex ne wo k o ela ionships eme ging
ac oss G ea e Asia is essen ial o ensu e
Eu ope’s ele ance in he long e m. Wi h
ega d o he e ol ing join in es men s
be ween China, he Gul S a es, and Cen al
Asia, speci ic ac ion is needed on bo h
on s: The EU and Ge many mus bo h im-
plemen hei Cen al Asia policy mo e
decisi ely while ecalib a ing bila e al ela-
ions wi h he Gul S a es.
Cen al Asia policy:
New models and mo e ealism
Bo h Ge many and he EU ha e emphasised
he s a egic impo ance o deepening ela-
ions wi h Cen al Asian coun ies since
Russia’s wa agains Uk aine began. Ene gy-
and clima e- ela ed issues a e pa icula ly
ele an , as he EU seeks o educe depend-
ence on ossil uels while simul aneously
expanding enewable ene gy sou ces. Addi-
ionally, e o s a e ocussed on de eloping
al e na i e hi d ma ke s o es ablish esili-
en (g een) alue chains and expo oppo -
uni ies independen o China.
Howe e , hese e o s ha e yielded lim-
i ed success so a . E en in p ojec s ela ed
o enewable ene gy and associa ed indus-
ies, i has been he Gul S a es and China
ha ha e ecen ly ended o domina e bo h
he sec o and b oade powe s uc u es.
Al hough inancial e o s we e he p ima y
d i e o s onge ies be ween Cen al
Asian coun ies, he A abian Gul , and China,
his de elopmen has no occu ed in a
poli ical acuum. Eu ope’s his o ically hesi-
an and mechanism-d i en app oach o he
egion – combined wi h a pos –Uk aine
wa Russia policy ocused on decoupling
and sanc ions – has al e ed he geog aphy
o con inen al ade. This shi has u he
incen i ised Cen al Asia’s o ien a ion o-
wa ds Asia and o he egions beyond he EU.
Despi e his, Cen al Asia and he EU
sha e inc easingly aligned in e es s, pa icu-
la ly in ene gy and clima e policy. Ye ,
a he han ansla ing his in o a cohe en
poli ical-s a egic app oach, he EU con-
inues o ie i s engagemen in he egion o
no ma i e and ans o ma i e expec a ions.
This includes condi ions such as human
igh s, ci il socie y de elopmen , sys emic
poli ical ans o ma ion, and (a imes p ema-
u e) clima e policy ini ia i es, as well as
un ealis ic demands such as decoupling
om Russia and dis ancing om China.
Ge many and Eu ope should he e o e
de elop a mo e consis en Cen al Asia
s a egy ha p io i ises ene gy and clima e
policy, no only in he o ic bu also in p ac-
ical ac ion. Ins umen s should be aligned
wi h goals, and hese goals should be
g ounded in eali y.
Ge many and he EU ace a c i ical choice
in Cen al Asia: adop a cau ious app oach
o expand hei ene gy and geos a egic
engagemen . This decision will equi e
e hinking he o ien a ion o hei in es -
men ac i i ies: Should he ocus emain
on small, low- isk p ojec s, o shi owa ds
la ge , long- e m ini ia i es? I cu en
policies a e con inued wi hou le e aging
exis ing oppo uni ies, he EU and Ge many
isk no only losing ma ke sha e in he g een
ene gy sec o , bu also incu ing long- e m
geos a egic cos s. These may include u -
he diminished in luence in Cen al Asia
and missed oppo uni ies o shape he
egion’s ene gy and clima e ans o ma-
SWP Commen 5
Janua y 2025
7
ion in ways ha align wi h Ge many’s in-
e es s.
S eng hening ela ions wi h Cen al
Asia migh equi e in eg a ing he egion
and i s dynamics in o a comp ehensi e
s a egy ha accoun s o i s g owing ans-
egional connec ions. In he ene gy and
clima e sec o s, his could include pa ici-
pa ing in conso ia wi h o he egional
playe s. E en i Ge man and Eu opean com-
panies canno compe e agains o he sup-
plie s on p ice, hey could collabo a e wi h
Gul ac o s on smalle -scale p ojec s in Cen-
al Asia, pa icula ly hose equi ing spe-
cialised echnology. Howe e , his equi es
a willingness o comp omise and commu-
nica e – no only wi h go e nmen s bu
also wi h o he ele an s akeholde s, espe-
cially companies. Ins i u ions such as he
Eu opean Bank o Recons uc ion and De-
elopmen and F ench companies a e al-
eady in ol ed in se e al p ojec s and could
se e as aluable channels o Ge many.
Gul S a es policy: Rep esen ing
in e es s, building pa ne ships
Wi h he Gul S a es expanding hei p es-
ence in Cen al Asia, i is impo an o
ee alua e and ecalib a e ela ions wi h
hem. Despi e di e ences, sha ed in e es s
do exis , e en in clima e policy – o
ins ance, he de elopmen o g een alue
chains independen o China.
Ye e en beyond Cen al Asia, he Gul
S a es a e signi ican global ac o s, sha ing
mo e common in e es s wi h Eu ope han
o he global playe s. They play a “swing” ole
in limi ing Chinese powe p ojec ion in he
Middle Eas and, ul ima ely, Eu ope. China’s
g owing in luence in he Gul is also linked
o Eu ope’s declining p esence in Eu asia
and Asia. China could use he Gul S a es as
ehicles o p ojec i s in e es s in o Eu ope,
including h ough a s eng hened BRICS
g oup. A mo e cons uc i e and s a egic ap-
p oach o he Gul S a es would hus be e
se e Ge man and Eu opean in e es s.
O cou se, Ge many and he EU should
consis en ly a icula e, emphasise, and
asse hei own in e es s in hei dealings
wi h he Gul S a es, bo h geopoli ically and
economically. The cu en end in o eign
policy o ele a e ce ain A ab coun ies o
i ually uncondi ional pa ne s should by
no means be con inued, le alone in ensi-
ied. Howe e , a pa ne ship-based, non-
ideological ela ionship on equal oo ing
wi h all Gul ac o s should be pu sued.
The Gul S a es ha e no abandoned
hei adi ional p e e ence o Eu ope as a
pa ne . Economically and diploma ically,
Eu ope is s ill associa ed wi h s abili y,
s eng h, and s a egic compe ence. How-
e e , his ounda ion is e oding, as also
e lec ed in a shi in ene gy coope a ion
owa ds Ko ea and Japan; Eu ope’s declin-
ing in luence in con lic zones such as
Yemen, Sy ia, and Sudan; and inc easing
alignmen wi h China.
To coun e ac his, he EU’s Gul S a e
policy should aim a healing he diploma ic
wounds o ecen yea s and ul il co e com-
mi men s, such as he nume ous decla a-
ions o in en made in he con ex o he
hyd ogen economy and he EU’s “S a egic
Pa ne ship wi h he Gul ”, adop ed in
2022. Collabo a ions in o he a eas, such as
a aw ma e ials pa ne ship wi h Saudi
A abia, a e i al “win-win” ins umen s ha
can s eng hen Eu opean in luence while
enhancing economic and ene gy esilience.
These e o s can simul aneously limi he
in luence o ac o s such as Russia and China.
Ul ima ely, s eng hening bila e al ela-
ions be ween he EU, Ge many, and he
Gul S a es could open a enues o ene gy
coope a ion in Cen al Asia, allowing o a
mo e consis en and e ec i e policy o he
egion. Bo h app oaches could enable he
EU and Ge many o play a mo e ac i e ole
in shaping he complex geo-economic and
geopoli ical balance in he b oade egion
while mo e e ec i ely pu suing hei ene gy,
clima e, and geopoli ical objec i es.
Dawud Ansa i is a o me Resea che in he Global Issues Resea ch Di ision and now leads he Majan Council.
Jacopo Ma ia Pepe is an Associa e in he Global Issues Resea ch Di ision. Rosa Melissa Geh ung is a o me Resea ch
Assis an . This SWP Commen was p oduced as pa o he p ojec “Geopoli ics o he Ene gy T ansi ion in G ea e
Asia (GET GA)”, unded by he Ge man Fede al Fo eign O ice.
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Ge man Ins i u e o
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ISSN (P in ) 1861-1761
ISSN (Online) 2747-5107
DOI: 10.18449/2025C05
(English e sion o
SWP-Ak uell 63/2024)
