Heimann, Tobias e al.
A icle — Published Ve sion
Expe p ojec ions on he de elopmen and applica ion o
bioene gy wi h ca bon cap u e and s o age echnologies
En i onmen al Resea ch Le e s
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Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy – Leibniz Cen e o Resea ch on Global Economic Challenges
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Heimann, Tobias e al. (2025) : Expe p ojec ions on he de elopmen and
applica ion o bioene gy wi h ca bon cap u e and s o age echnologies, En i onmen al Resea ch
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LETTER • OPEN ACCESS
Expe p ojec ions on he de elopmen and
applica ion o bioene gy wi h ca bon cap u e and
s o age echnologies
To ci e his a icle: Tobias Heimann
e al
2025
En i on. Res. Le .
20 024059
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LETTER
Expe p ojec ions on he de elopmen and applica ion o
bioene gy wi h ca bon cap u e and s o age echnologies
Tobias Heimann1,∗, La a-Sophie Wähling1, Tomke Honkomp2, Ru h Delzei 3, Alessand a Pi one1,
F anziska Schie 2and Holge Weima 2
1Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy, Kiel, Ge many
2Thünen Ins i u e o Fo es y, Hambu g, Ge many
3Depa men o En i onmen al Science, Uni e si y o Basel, Basel, Swi ze land
∗Au ho o whom any co espondence should be add essed.
E-mail: [email p o ec ed]
Keywo ds: BECCS, CDR, expe su ey, p oduc ion echnology, biomass
Supplemen a y ma e ial o his a icle is a ailable online
Abs ac
Bioene gy wi h ca bon cap u e and s o age (BECCS) is a c ucial elemen in mos modelling s udies
on emission pa hways o he In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change o limi global wa ming.
BECCS can subs i u e ossil uels in ene gy p oduc ion and educe CO2emissions, while using
biomass o ene gy p oduc ion can ha e eedback e ec s on land use, ag icul u al and o es
p oduc s ma ke s, as well as biodi e si y and wa e esou ces. To assess he o me p os and cons o
BECCS deploymen , in e disciplina y model app oaches equi e de ailed es ima es o echnological
in o ma ion ela ed o BECCS p oduc ion echnologies. Cu en es ima es o he cos s uc u e and
cap u e po en ial o BECCS a y widely due o he absence o la ge-scale p oduc ion. To ob ain
mo e p ecise es ima es, a global online expe su ey (N=32) was conduc ed including ques ions
on he egional de elopmen po en ial and biomass use o BECCS, as well as he u u e ope a ing
cos s, cap u e po en ial, and scalabili y in di e en applica ion sec o s. In gene al, he expe s
conside he implemen a ion o BECCS in Eu ope and No h Ame ica o be e y p omising and
ega d BECCS applica ion in he liquid bio uel indus y and he mal powe gene a ion as e y
likely. The esul s show signi ican di e ences depending on whe he he expe s wo k in he
Global No h o he Global Sou h. Thus, he indings unde line he impo ance o including
expe s om he Global Sou h in discussions on ca bon dioxide emo al me hods. Rega ding
echnical es ima es, he ope a ing cos s o BECCS in he mal powe gene a ion we e es ima ed in
he ange o 100–200 USD/ CO2, while he CO2cap u e po en ial was es ima ed o be
50–200 M CO2y −1by 2030, wi h cos -e iciency gains o 20% by 2050 due o echnological
p og ess. Whe eas he indi iduals’ expe s p o ided mo e p ecise es ima es, he o e all dis ibu ion
o es ima es e lec ed he wide ange o es ima es ound in he li e a u e. Fo he cos sha es wi hin
BECCS, i was di icul o ob ain consis en es ima es. Howe e , due o e y ew cu en al e na i e
es ima es, he esul s a e an impo an s ep o modelling he p oduc ion sec o o BECCS in
in e disciplina y models ha analyse c oss-dimensional ade-o s and long- e m sus ainabili y.
1. In oduc ion
Global g eenhouse gas (GHG) emissions a e con inu-
ing o inc ease, u he exace ba ing global wa m-
ing (IPCC 2023). The goals o he Pa is Ag eemen
aim o limi global wa ming o well below 2 ◦C
abo e p e-indus ial le els and ideally o 1.5 ◦C. To
achie e his, ne -ze o, and o some coun ies e en
ne -nega i e, emissions a ge s o CO2need o be
ealized, and o he GHG emissions, e.g. me hane, sig-
ni ican ly educed by he end o he cen u y (Rogelj
e al 2018a, IPCC 2023). In addi ion o educing emis-
sions, ca bon dioxide emo al (CDR) me hods a e
i al o emo ing exis ing CO2emissions om he
© 2025 The Au ho (s). Published by IOP Publishing L d
En i on. Res. Le . 20 (2025) 024059 T Heimann e al
a mosphe e and coun e balancing esidual emissions
in he medium e m (Minx e al 2018, Rogelj e al
2018b,2018a, IPCC 2023). I emo al exceeds emis-
sions, CDR me hods could achie e ne -nega i e emis-
sions in he long e m (IPCC 2023). The ocus is
p ima ily on he use o bioene gy wi h ca bon cap-
u e and s o age (BECCS), since BECCS is a c u-
cial elemen in in eg a ed assessmen models (IAMs)
ha model emission pa hways o limi global wa m-
ing o 1.5 ◦C o well below 2 ◦C, which a e a basis
o he epo s o he In e go e nmen al Panel on
Clima e Change (IPCC) (Rogelj e al 2018a, Riahi
e al 2022, Zhao e al 2024). In scena ios wi h a e -
age global empe a u e inc eases below o equal o
1.5 ◦C, BECCS deploymen is es ima ed o achie e
educ ions o 3.4–6.8 G CO2y −1by 2050. By 2100,
his could inc ease o 5.7–14.9 G CO2y −1, depend-
ing on he scena io and he possibili y o empo a -
ily exceeding empe a u e a ge s (Rogelj e al 2018a).
When accoun ing o sus ainabili y c i e ia, emission
educ ions h ough BECCS deploymen could be lim-
i ed o 0.5–5 G CO2y −1by 2050 acco ding o Fuss
e al (2018).
Un il now, bo h esea ch and indus y ha e
mainly ocused on applying BECCS in indus ies ha
use biomass o p oducing elec ici y and hea , pulp
and pape , o in ene gy con e sion plan s ha p o-
duce liquid bio uel o biogas (Faja dy e al 2019, Rosa
e al 2021). The e has also ecen ly been inc easing
esea ch on he echnical and economic easibili y o
using BECCS in ca bon-in ensi e indus ies p odu-
cing cemen and s eel (Tanze e al 2020, Ca ale e al
2021, Lopez e al 2022, Ago a Indus y and Wuppe al
Ins i u e 2023). CO2 eleased by con e ing biomass
o bioene gy is cap u ed using ca bon cap u e ech-
nology, comp essed, anspo ed, and s o ed in geo-
logical o ma ions, p e en ing i om being eleased
in o he a mosphe e (Bui e al 2018, Clai e e al 2018,
Faja dy e al 2019).
By subs i u ing ossil uels in ene gy p oduc-
ion, BECCS educes CO2emissions and simul-
aneously o se s esidual emissions om ha d- o-
aba e sec o s by gene a ing nega i e emissions (Rogelj
e al 2015, Bui e al 2018, Clai e e al 2018).
Howe e , he use o biomass o ene gy p oduc ion
can ha e eedback e ec s on land use, he ag icul-
u al and o es p oduc s ma ke s, as well as biod-
i e si y (Faja dy e al 2018, Ho e al 2018, Smi h
e al 2020, Babin e al 2021, Hanssen e al 2021).
Fu he mo e, BECCS migh pu p essu e on wa e
esou ces since CCS echnology is wa e -in ensi e
and he i iga ion o ene gy c ops leads o addi ional
wa e use (Bye s e al 2015, Rosa e al 2020, S enzel
e al 2021, Zhipin e al 2021). On he o he hand,
s udies ha e concluded ha unde speci ic condi-
ions (e.g. ype o eeds ock, leng h o o a ion, land-
scape), land use change o biomass p oduc ion migh
lead o posi i e e ec s on ecosys em se ices and
bene i biodi e si y (Holland e al 2015, Donnison
e al 2020,2021, Englund e al 2020, Hanssen e al
2021, Hi a a e al 2024). These ade-o s and co-
bene i s along wi h o he aspec s o unce ain y,
e.g. cos s and public accep ance o BECCS, uel dis-
cussions among esea che s, policymake s, and he
public on he app op ia eness o BECCS as a cli-
ma e change mi iga ion measu e (Faja dy e al 2018,
C eu zig e al 2019, Haikola e al 2021, Donnison
e al 2023).
The i s ope a ing BECCS plan s a e loca ed in
No h Ame ica and No he n Eu ope. In o ma ion
on he speci ic applica ion concep s o hese
ad anced p ojec s is a ailable (Global CCS Ins i u e
2024). One example o a p ojec in an ad anced
planning s age in he Global Sou h, is he B azilian
bio e ine y plan ope a ed by Fueling Sus ainabili y
in Lucas do Rio Ve de (PR Newswi e 2024). Fu u e
model assessmen s suppo he es ablishmen o la ge
numbe s o BECCS p oduc ion si es in, e.g. sub-
Saha an A ica, as his egion possesses as a eas ha
could p o ide biomass ene gy and s o age capaci ies
(see e.g. Ricci and Selosse 2013, Hanssen e al 2020a).
Gi en he b oad ange o possibili ies and unce -
ain ies, i is challeging o assess exac ly how BECCS
migh de elop o e he nex decades. I is ye unclea
in which coun ies and a eas o applica ion BECCS
will be implemen ed, and sus ainabili y o BECCS
migh a y by coun y and sec o . I is hus impo an
o ob ain addi ional in o ma ion o, e.g. di e en ia e
mo e s ongly be ween he use o di e en biomass
ypes when modelling BECCS echnologies, o be able
o cap u e egion-speci ic e ec s on biomass demand
and p oduc ion mo e accu a ely.
Taking he a o emen ioned in o accoun , in e dis-
ciplina y nume ic modelling app oaches can se e as
ools o e ec i ely assess po en ial ade-o s a ising
om he la ge-scale implemen a ion o BECCS.
Using economic models, i is possible o analyse
u u e ma ke de elopmen s and policy impac s
which a e di icul o g asp in hei complexi y (Schie
e al 2022). Howe e , hese models equi e angible
in o ma ion on he sec o al ep esen a ion o BECCS
and ela ed p oduc ion ac o s, e.g. biomass eeds ock
used, ca bon cap u e po en ial, ope a ing cos s, and
scalabili y as inpu o ca y ou c oss- egional and
c oss-sec o al ade-o analysis, The e a e impo -
an di e ences in he es ima es o echnical aspec s
o BECCS ac oss he published li e a u e (Daioglou
e al 2020), mainly because BECCS si es a e cu -
en ly p e-comme cial and only a ew pilo p o-
jec s exis , mainly in No h Ame ica and No he n
Eu ope (Rosa e al 2021, Global CCS Ins i u e
2022). Mo is e al (2019) published p oduc ion
cos s in he USA o BECCS in powe gene a ion
ueled by non-speci ied biomass. These es ima es
a e used by Faja dy e al (2021), o ins ance, o
model he ole o BECCS in achie ing di e en
2
En i on. Res. Le . 20 (2025) 024059 T Heimann e al
global wa ming scena ios in he Economic P ojec ion
and Policy Model amewo k o he Massachuse s
Ins i u e o Technology. Fu he mo e, he Law ence
Li e mo e Na ional Labo a o y p o ides p ojec ions
o BECCS deploymen and p oduc ion cos s in
Cali o nia (Bake e al 2020) and he USA (Pe -Ridge
e al 2023). Abegg e al (2024) conduc ed expe in e -
iews wi h schola s on he cos s and scalabili y o
BECCS in which he expe s assumed highe cos s
and lowe scalabili y han he In e na ional Ene gy
Agency o ecas s (IEA 2021) bu wi hou di e en i-
a ing in eeds ock, BECCS echnology o egion.
In addi ion, li e a u e e iews in se e al ecen
pape s p esen cos es ima es and cap u e po en ial
o BECCS (Fuss e al 2018, Rueda e al 2021, F ee
e al 2022, Abegg e al 2024). Due o unce ain ies in
ope a ional ac o s, he u u e mi iga ion po en ial o
BECCS is also inc easingly ques ioned (G uble e al
2018, Riahi e al 2021). Fuss e al (2018) ind la ge
a ia ions in es ima es due o unce ain ies ela ing
o assumed biomass eeds ock and BECCS echno-
logy. Finally, C eu zig e al (2019) and Zhao e al
(2024) bo h a gue ha BECCS ne CO2 emo al e i-
ciency depends mainly on he li e-cycle emissions o
he espec i e eeds ock and he e iciency o BECCS
plan s.
An op ion o de i ing in o ma ion on u u e
BECCS implemen a ion e e s o he p ojec ions
made in clima e change mi iga ion modelling, which
ely mos ly on IAMs (Cal in e al 2021). IAMs
con ibu e o he assessmen o clima e policies
and enhance he unde s anding o he impo ance
o cos -e ec i eness in o ma ion o new echnolo-
gies, amongs o he hings (Weyan 2017). Howe e ,
unce ain ies and di e ging assump ions ac oss mod-
elling s udies gi e ise o di e ences in es ima es o
BECCS po en ial (Cal in e al 2021). Daioglou e al
(2020) p o ide a concise o e iew o he deploy-
men o bioene gy echnologies in IAMs and dis-
cuss he echno-economic assump ions. In pa icu-
la , he inc ease in capi al cos s in bioene gy sys-
ems caused by implemen ing CCS echnologies a y
ac oss IAMs, anging om 2%–242%, and 10%–
315% o elec ici y and liquid bio uels espec i ely
(Daioglou e al 2020). Based on sensi i i y analyses,
Mu a o i e al (2020) ound ha unce ain ies in ech-
nical assump ions in pa icula a ec he iming and
a e o deploymen o BECCS. IAMs supply p ojec-
ions o biomass eeds ock esul om an in e play
o biomass p oduc ion cha ac e is ics and bioene gy
demand, which hemsel es a e in luenced by nume -
ous model cha ac e is ics (Rose e al 2022). In addi-
ion, IAMs may di e conside ably ega ding ene gy
c op yields (Rose e al 2022, Whi ake e al 2018, Slade
e al 2014), which could be exace ba ed by unce ain-
ies ega ding he impac o clima e change (Smi h
e al 2019). Land-use compe i ion also a ec s he
cos s and supply o biomass eeds ock (Smi h e al
2016, Kal e al 2020), alongside signi ican ly a ying
ac o s (see Rose e al 2022 o an o e iew), leading
o di e gen BECCS p ojec ions.
Re ospec i e e iews o echnological o ecas s
show ha many o hese end o be imp ecise and
o e con iden (Sa age e al 2021). Expe s can be sub-
jec o biases ha may a ec he selec ion o pa a-
me e s and alues used in o wa d-looking mod-
elling exe cises (Bonacco si e al 2020). Thus, he
widely di e gen and imp ecise in o ma ion in he li -
e a u e ega ding es ima es on biomass use, scalab-
ili y, and ope a ing cos s o BECCS is an obs acle o
he sound in eg a ion o his echnology in nume -
ical simula ion models (Daioglou e al 2020). This
s udy aims o de e mine which pa ame e alues
om he cu en li e a u e can be easonably used
o model-based assessmen s and which pa ame e s
equi e u he esea ch. To add ess his, we con-
duc ed an online su ey wi h in e na ional indus y,
esea ch, and policy expe s ac i e in he ield o
BECCS. The objec i e o he su ey was o gain mo e
p ecise es ima es on he echnical aspec s o di e -
en BECCS echnologies, ocusing on u u e ope a -
ing cos s, cap u e po en ial, scalabili y, and biomass
use. This su ey p o ides an expe assessmen o
he cu en li e a u e, including es ima es and p o-
jec ions ha ha e ecen ly been published, o deli e
jus i iable pa ame e s o be used in economic mod-
elling. Mo eo e , we asked o expe opinions on
he u u e echnological de elopmen o BECCS o
na ow down he wide ange o es ima es ound in
he li e a u e, hus ob aining mo e consis en es-
ul s o be able o e ine economic modelling and
ade-o analyses. While mos IAMs p esen BECCS
model esul s o 2050 onwa ds, we also eques ed
es ima es o 2030 and 2040, and o po en ial lea n-
ing a es o allow o dynamic modelling when con-
duc ing ade-o analyses using compu able gene al
equilib ium o pa ial equilib ium models. Finally,
we highligh a eas in which expe s’ opinions a e
s ill incong uen , call o addi ional esea ch, and
iden i y he pa ame e s ha should be subjec o ig-
o ous sensi i i y analyses when included in economic
models.
2. Me hod
Fo his su ey we in i ed expe s wi h echnical
expe ise om he alue chains o CCS, BECCS,
o bioene gy p oduc ion. To ind sui able expe s,
we sc eened scien i ic pape s, sea ched o con ac s
a uni e si ies, scien i ic ins i u es, and consul an-
cies, and app oached companies conduc ing o plan-
ning BECCS ield ials. The su ey was conduc-
ed anonymously, and he ini ial in i a ion and wo
eminde s we e sen by email o 145 in e na ional
expe s in Decembe 2021 wi h a esponse a e o
16% (N=25). Fu he in o ma ion on su ey design
3
En i on. Res. Le . 20 (2025) 024059 T Heimann e al
Table 1. O e iew o su ey ques ions and answe op ions.
Ques ions Answe op ions
Po en ial o BECCS
- How would you es ima e he po en ial o ma ke de elopmen o
BECCS o egions in Eu ope, Asia, Aus alia and Oceania,
Ame ica, Middle Eas and A ica un il 2040?
Ra ing scale: e y high po en ial, high
po en ial, low po en ial, e y low
po en ial, no po en ial
- Rank he ollowing loca ion ac o s acco ding o hei impo ance
o deploying BECCS: closeness o biomass eeds ock, closeness o
key ma ke o p oduced p oduc s, closeness o CO2s o age si e,
usage o exis ing ene gy p oduc ion in as uc u e.
Ranking: 1 = e y impo an o 4 =leas
impo an
Sui able biomass sou ces o BECCS
- Please ank he ollowing ene gy c ops acco ding o hei
impo ance as biomass sou ces o BECCS: oundwood, wood
esidues, wood pelle s, sho - o a ion coppice, g asses, suga c ops,
oil c ops.
Ranking: 1 = e y impo an o 7 =leas
impo an
- How likely is i ha he p oduc ion o he ollowing biomass ypes
( ege able oils/lignocellulose/g ains/ suga cane) o he bio uel
indus y will be coupled wi h CCS by 2030?
Ra ing scale: e y likely, a he likely,
a he unlikely, e y unlikely
- Please ank he ollowing a eas o applica ion (liquid bio uel
indus y/ he mal powe gene a ion/pulp and pape indus y)
acco ding o hei sui abili y o using sho o a ion coppice.
Ranking: 1 = e y sui able o 3 =leas
sui able
Cos es ima ions o BECCS
- Please indica e you es ima e o he o al cos s o CCS applied in
he liquid bio uel indus y, biomass- ueled he mal powe
gene a ion and pulp and pape indus y.
Es ima es in USD/ CO2
- Wha cos e iciency gains due o echnological p og ess do you
expec o CCS in he liquid bio uel indus y, biomass- ueled
he mal powe gene a ion and pulp and pape indus y compa ed
o you es ima ed cu en cos s un il 2030/2040/2050?
Es ima es o each indus y and each yea
in %
- Wha a e he o al cos sha es o CCS o he liquid bio uel
indus y, biomass- ueled he mal powe gene a ion and pulp and
pape indus y?
Es ima es o capi al, labo , ene gy
equi emen s, ex e nal se ices and
main enance. Sha es mus o al 100%.
Applica ion o CCS and cap u e po en ial
- How likely is i ha CCS will be applied in he liquid bio uel
indus y, biomass- ueled he mal powe gene a ion and pulp and
pape indus y?
Ra ing scale: e y likely, a he likely,
a he unlikely, e y unlikely
- Which sha e o he o al ca bon con en o biomass used o he
liquid bio uel indus y (co n e hanol, lignocellulosic e hanol,
biodiesel), biomass- ueled he mal powe gene a ion and pulp and
pape indus y can be cap u ed by CCS?
Es ima es in %
- Please indica e you es ima e o he global CCS po en ial o he
liquid bio uel indus y, biomass- ueled he mal powe gene a ion
and pulp and pape indus y by 2030/2040/2050.
Es ima es in M CO2
can be ound in he supplemen a y ma e ial (S1).
Despi e looking o expe s on he global le el, coun-
ies o he Global Sou h we e unde ep esen ed in
ou expe pool. So acool (2023) has al eady high-
ligh ed how he discou se on ca bon emo al po en-
ial has been limi ed mainly o he Global No h
wi hou adequa ely ep esen ing coun ies o he
Global Sou h. A e no icing he bias in ou i s su -
ey, we conduc ed an addi ional su ey ound in i -
ing u he expe s only om coun ies o he Global
Sou h. The su ey was sen o 37 addi ional expe s
in Oc obe 2023, o which se en expe s esponded
( o a o al o N=32 and a esponse a e o 18% o
bo h su eys). In he addi ional su ey, we speci ic-
ally aimed o include expe s om China, gi en he
numbe o ecen ele an publica ions by Chinese
schola s (e.g. Huang e al 2020, Xing e al 2021, Weng
e al 2021). Mo e han hal o he emails we e no
ansmi ed and he emaining in i ees did no eply.
Thus, eg e ably, we we e unable o include expe ise
om China.
Table 1p o ides an o e iew o he su ey ques-
ions p esen ed o he expe s. Mos answe op ions
en ailed ei he a ing scales (e.g. ‘ e y sui able’ o
‘ e y unsui able’), in o de o assess he a i udes and
opinions o he expe s, o anking op ions (‘1 = e y
impo an ’ o ‘7 =leas impo an ’), o classi y p e e -
ences (Moo s e al 2016, Del G ande and Kaczo owski
2023). Fo he ques ions on echnical es ima es, he
expe s could choose om se e al possible answe s o
4
En i on. Res. Le . 20 (2025) 024059 T Heimann e al
Table 2. Numbe o esponden s by disciplina y backg ound and egion.
Humani ies
and business
adminis a ion
En i onmen al
science
Chemical
enginee ing
O he
enginee ing
O he na u al
sciences Na
No h Ame ica 3 1 2 1 1 5
Eu ope 4 2 2 4 2 11
Res o he Wo ld 2 2 1 1 7 9
No s a ed 3 3 3 3 4 7
To al 12 8 8 9 14 32
aMul iple answe s on disciplina y backg ound we e possible, so ha he sum o columns is no equal o N. No h Ame ican na ions
ep esen ed in his su ey a e Canada and he USA; Eu ope includes he UK, No way, Sweden, he Ne he lands, and Ge many; he Res
o he Wo ld includes India, Saudi A abia, and B azil, which a e u he de ined as coun ies in he Global Sou h, and Sou h Ko ea.
‘Humani ies and business adminis a ion’ includes economics, business adminis a ion, poli ical sciences and psychology; ‘Chemical
enginee ing’ and ‘En i onmen al science’ include only chemical enginee ing and en i onmen al science, espec i ely; ‘O he
enginee ing’ includes mechanical enginee ing, ma e ial science, ene gy enginee ing, echno-economic sys em dynamics, and
en i onmen al enginee ing; ‘O he na u al sciences’ includes na u al science, ag icul u e science, and geog aphy.
es ima es om he li e a u e. Mo e de ailed in o m-
a ion on each ques ion and i s answe op ion is
p o ided in he supplemen a y ma e ial (S1).
Table 2lis s he geog aphical loca ion o p ima y
employmen and he disciplina y backg ound o he
esponden s. Fu he in o ma ion on he expe s,
i.e. hei expe ise and wo king expe ience, a e
p esen ed in he supplemen a y ma e ial (S1).
3. Resul s
3.1. Expec a ions ega ding he implemen a ion o
BECCS
As shown in igu e 1, esponden s conside he
highes de elopmen po en ial o implemen ing
BECCS by 2040 in he USA, Canada, and he
Eu opean Union (EU), ollowed by he Uni ed
Kingdom (UK), B azil, and China. A leas 40% o he
esponden s a e he po en ial o each o he egions
as high o e y high. Whe eas he EU, UK, USA
and Canada ha e he lowes a ia ion in he assess-
men and he lowes sha e o esponden s answe -
ing ‘do no know,’ he opposi e is ue o China.
He e, he a iance in esponses and he sha e o
esponden s choosing he ‘do no know’ op ion is
among he highes o all egions, hus demons a -
ing a high deg ee o unce ain y. Fo all egions
besides he Eu opean coun ies, B azil, he USA, and
Canada, mo e han 40% o he esponden s a e unce -
ain ega ding de elopmen po en ial. De elopmen
po en ial ela es only o he es ablishmen o a BECCS
p oduc ion si e because biomass may be sou ced om
o he egions, and ca bon can be anspo ed o o he
egions. Howe e , anspo cos s o biomass and
ca bon may a ec he assessmen o he egional
de elopmen po en ial o es ablishing BECCS p o-
duc ion si es.
Rela ed o his, igu e 2p esen s he ele ance
o dis ance o biomass p oduc ion and ca bon s o -
age o he loca ion o a BECCS p oduc ion si e, and
shows ha he e is no consensus on which loca ion
ac o plays he mos impo an ole o BECCS si es.
A pai ed - es con i ms ha he e a e no signi ic-
an p e e ences be ween ‘Usage o exis ing ene gy
p oduc ion acili ies’ o e ‘Closeness o CO2s o age
si es’ and ‘Closeness o biomass eeds ock.’ Howe e ,
whe eas he impo ance o ‘Usage o exis ing ene gy
p oduc ion acili ies’ and ‘Closeness o biomass eed-
s ock’ ha e he highes anking o 1 and 3 (no s a is -
ically di e en iable), ‘Closeness o CO2s o age si es’
has one median o 2. Di e ences be ween espond-
en s om he Global No h and Global Sou h a e
obse ed in p e e ences o ‘Closeness o CO2s o age
si e’ and ‘Usage o exis ing ene gy p oduc ion acili -
ies.’ In con as o he expe s om he Global No h,
hose om coun ies in he Global Sou h signi ican ly
(p<0.05) a e ‘Closeness o CO2s o age si e’ as mo e
ele an han ‘Usage o exis ing ene gy p oduc ion
acili ies.’ All esponden s ag ee ha p oximi y o con-
sume s o ene gy o uels is signi ican ly (p<0.01)
leas ele an .
The impo ance o he espec i e cul i a ed eed-
s ocks o BECCS by all esponden s is p esen ed in
igu e 3. A ela i ely wide ange o sou ces could
po en ially supply biomass o BECCS. Th ee main
ca ego ies can be dis inguished wo ldwide: muni-
cipal and indus ial was es, ag icul u al, o es and
wood esidues (seconda y biomass), and bioene gy
c ops (p ima y biomass) (Balaman 2019, Zhang e al
2020, Wu e al 2024). The lis o eeds ocks is o i-
en ed owa ds he p oduc s ypically modelled in
pa ial o gene al equilib ium models. Apa om
wood esidues, seconda y biomass was no included
in he su ey due o unce ain ies in sus ainable a ail-
abili y, eedback links, and p ices (Hanssen e al
2020b). Including hese eeds ocks would equi e
addi ional cla i ica ion ha exceeds he ange o
his s udy, because in eg a ing seconda y biomass
use in economic models is a challenge on i s
own.
5
En i on. Res. Le . 20 (2025) 024059 T Heimann e al
9%
6%
6%
6%
6%
9%
3%
3%
13%
16%
16%
22%
19%
25%
3%
9%
9%
13%
16%
19%
19%
25%
19%
22%
22%
25%
44%
44%
19%
19%
16%
22%
9%
22%
25%
25%
25%
34%
6%
16%
19%
13%
13%
19%
13%
13%
9%
6%
0%
6%
6%
3%
3%
3%
9%
3%
3%
6%
3%
3%
47%
44%
56%
47%
56%
38%
50%
41%
38%
25%
50%
34%
19%
19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sub-Saha an A ica
Middle Eas and No h A ica
O he La in Ame ican coun ies
A gen ina, Chile, and Pa aguay
O he Asian coun ies
India
Russia and Cen al Asia
Aus alia and Oceania
O he Eu opean coun ies
Uni ed Kingdom
China (incl. Hong Kong)
B azil
Eu opean Union
Canada and he USA
Ve y high po en ial High po en ial Low po en ial Ve y low po en ial No po en ial Don' know
Figu e 1. Region-speci ic po en ial o ma ke de elopmen o BECCS by 2040 (N=32). No e: egions a e lis ed in descending
o de o mean po en ial (excl. ‘do no know’).
Figu e 2. Impo ance o di e en loca ion ac o s o BECCS deploymen (1 = e y impo an o 4 =leas impo an ) (N=31,
one expe did no answe he ques ion).
The K uskal–Wallis es (see K uskal and Allen
Wallis 1952) shows signi ican di e ences in he
eeds ock assessmen be ween esponden s om he
Global No h and Global Sou h. In con as o
esponden s om he Global Sou h, expe s om
he Global No h alue wood esidues and pelle s as
signi ican ly mo e impo an han suga c ops and
g ains. Howe e , he Wilcoxon signed- ank es (see
Wilcoxon 1945) e eals ha all esponden s ag ee
ha g asses, oundwood, and oilseeds a e signi ic-
an ly assumed o be leas impo an .
Whe eas o mos eeds ocks he a ea o applica-
ion is ob ious, he e a e some unce ain ies consid-
e ing sho - o a ion coppice (SRC), which is anked
in he g oup o impo an eeds ocks. We he e o e
asked he expe s which possible a ea o applica-
ion o BECCS ( he mal powe gene a ion, liquid
bio uel, o pulp and pape indus y; see Fuss e al
6
En i on. Res. Le . 20 (2025) 024059 T Heimann e al
Figu e 3. Impo ance o di e en ene gy c ops as a biomass eeds ock o p oduc o BECCS (1 = e y impo an o 7 =leas
impo an ) (N=25, se en expe s did no answe he ques ion). No e: eeds ocks a e o de ed by mean o esponses, s a ing wi h
he lowes mean on he le (excl. ‘do no know’).
Figu e 4. Likelihood o BECCS implemen a ion by a ea o applica ion.
2018, Rosa e al 2021) could be he mos sui able
o SRC. Conside ing all esponden s, no signi ican
anking was obse ed; howe e , aking in o accoun
only esponden s om he Global No h shows ha
SRCs a e p e e ably used in he mal powe gene a ion
han in he pulp and pape indus y.
3.2. P oduc ion echnology and cos s o BECCS
This sec ion p esen s es ima es o he p oduc ion
cos s o BECCS. As men ioned abo e, based on Rosa
e al (2021), we iden i ied h ee a eas o applica-
ion o BECCS: he mal powe gene a ion, he liquid
bio uel indus y, and he pulp and pape indus y.
The expe s we e eques ed o sel -iden i y hei
expe ise and we e only asked hose ques ions ela ing
o hese sel -iden i ied a eas o expe ise. The ques-
ions on p oduc ion echnology and cos s con ained
he same ques ions o each a ea o applica ion.
We i s asked esponden s o assess he likelihood
o BECCS being deployed in each applica ion a ea
(see igu e 4). A ound 60% o he espec i e expe s
es ima e ha BECCS is e y likely o be implemen-
ed in he mal powe gene a ion and he liquid bio-
uel indus y. The expe s om he pulp and pape
7
En i on. Res. Le . 20 (2025) 024059 T Heimann e al
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