The monetary value of human life losses associated with COVID-19 in Africa: A human capital approach

Ki igia, Joses M.; Mwabu, Ge mano M.
A icle
The mone a y alue o human li e losses associa ed wi h
COVID-19 in A ica: A human capi al app oach
Economies
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MDPI – Mul idisciplina y Digi al Publishing Ins i u e, Basel
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ki igia, Joses M.; Mwabu, Ge mano M. (2025) : The mone a y alue o human li e
losses associa ed wi h COVID-19 in A ica: A human capi al app oach, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099,
MDPI, Basel, Vol. 13, Iss. 8, pp. 1-48,
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Published: 16 Augus 2025
Ci a ion: Ki igia, J. M., & Mwabu, G.
(2025). The Mone a y Value o Human
Li e Losses Associa ed wi h COVID-19
in A ica: A Human Capi al App oach.
Economies,13(8), 241. h ps://doi.o g/
10.3390/economies13080241
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A icle
The Mone a y Value o Human Li e Losses Associa ed wi h
COVID-19 in A ica: A Human Capi al App oach
Joses Mu hu i Ki igia 1,* and Ge mano Mwabu 2
1A ican Sus ainable De elopmen Resea ch Conso ium (ASDRC), Nai obi P.O. Box 6994-00100, Kenya
2Depa men o Economics and De elopmen S udies, Uni e si y o Nai obi,
Nai obi P.O. Box 30197-00100, Kenya; [email p o ec ed]
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac
Backg ound: By 30 June 2021, he 54 A ican so e eign na ions had epo ed 5,465,790
labo a o y-con i med COVID-19 cases (including 142,171 dea hs). This s udy aimed o
es ima e he mone a y alue o human li e losses, indi ec and di ec cos s, and he po-
en ial cos educ ions due o accina ions o ad ocacy use by Minis ies o Heal h in
A ica. Me hods: We employed bo h he human capi al app oach o alue human li es
los and an ab idged o al cos -o -illness me hodology o es ima e he indi ec and di ec
cos s o COVID-19 ac oss 54 A ican coun ies. The seconda y da a analyzed was om
di e en sou ces. Resul s: The 142,171 human li es los had an es ima ed discoun ed o al
mone a y alue o In $6,684,101,196, i.e., In $47,015 pe li e loss and In $4.88 pe pe son
in he popula ion. The es ima ed o al cos o he ac ual epo ed 5,514,709 COVID-19
cases was In $7,155,473,174, which comp ised a o al di ec cos o In $3,981,927,049 (55.6%)
and an indi ec cos o In $3,173,546,125 (44.4%). We p ojec ed ha accina ion o all he
eligible people in he popula ion would po en ially sa e he A ican con inen app oxi-
ma ely In $41,624,735,824. The a e age o al sa ing pe pe son is app oxima ely In $30.4.
Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic esul ed in subs an ial mone a y alue o human
li e losses and indi ec and di ec cos s.
Keywo ds: COVID-19; g oss domes ic p oduc ; alue o li e; indi ec cos ; di ec cos ;
human capi al app oach; A ica
JEL Classi ica ion: H51; I10; I19
1. Backg ound
The A ican con inen , consis ing o 54 so e eign coun ies and ou e i o ies (Mayo e,
Réunion, Sain Helena, Wes e n Saha a), has an es ima ed o al popula ion o 1.37 billion
people (Wo ldome e ,2021) and a o al g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) o In e na ional Dolla s
(In $) 6.86 illion in 2021 (In e na ional Mone a y Fund (IMF),2021). The A ican Union (AU)
p ojec s an economic g ow h o
−
0.8% ( o 2021) due o Co ona i us Disease (COVID-19),
compa ed o he ini ial p ojec ion o +3.4% o 2020 (A ican Union (AU),2020).
As o 30 June 2021, he A ican con inen (comp ising 54 so e eign s a es and ou
e i o ies) had 5,514,709 con i med COVID-19 cases, comp ising 4,824,876 eco e ed cases,
547,261 ac i e cases, and 142,572 dea hs (Wo ldome e ,2021). O he la e , 142,171 dea hs
we e epo ed by he 54 A ican so e eign na ions, and he emaining 401 dea hs (0.28%)
by he e i o ies o Sain Helena (0), Mayo e (174), Réunion (226), and Wes e n Saha a
Economies 2025,13, 241 h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13080241
Economies 2025,13, 241 2 o 48
(Wo ldome e ,2021). The s udy ocuses on he 5,465,790 cases epo ed by he so e eign
s a es and does no include he 48,919 cases epo ed by he ou e i o ies.
To mi iga e he ad e se socio-economic e ec s o COVID-19, he AU ecommended
ha A ican go e nmen s should “boos in es men s ha s eng hen heal h sys ems o
enable as e ea men [o in ec ions] and con ainmen ” o he pandemic (p. 32) (A ican
Union (AU),2020). Howe e , he e is e idence ha he pe o mance o heal h- ela ed
sys ems in A ica, bo h be o e and du ing he pandemic, has been subop imal. Fo ins ance,
conce ning (a) na ional heal h sys ems (NHSs), he Uni e sal Heal h Se ice Co e age
Index was below 50% in app oxima ely 70% o coun ies (36 ou o 54) (WHO,2021a);
(b) in he social de e minan s o heal h (SDH) sys ems, o e 50% o he o al popula ion
in 37 coun ies did no ha e basic sani a ion se ices, d inking-wa e , and handwashing
acili ies a home (WHO,2021b); (c) in he na ional heal h esea ch sys ems (NHRSs), he
a e age Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion (WHO) A ican egion NHRS ba ome e sco e on he
capaci y o p oduce and u ilize esea ch indings was below 60% in 2018 (Rusakaniko e al.,
2019). The unde pe o mance o especially NHSs has been a ibu ed o unde in es men
(Asan e e al.,2020) and economic ine iciencies (Nabyonga-O em e al.,2023). The e o e,
he e is a need o gene a e e idence o ad ocacy o inc ease in es men s and imp o e he
e iciency o alloca ing and u ilizing heal h de elopmen esou ces, con inually enhancing
he pe o mance o heal h- ela ed sys ems in A ica, especially du ing pandemics.
Acco ding o Rice (2000) and he Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion (WHO,2009,2001),
es ima es o he money alue o human li e exp essed in e ms o o egone li e ime ea nings
a e needed by heal h de elopmen policymake s o use in aising public heal h awa eness
and ad oca ing wi h go e nmen s, p i a e sec o , and o he s akeholde s o inc eased
and sus ained in es men s in heal h- ela ed sys ems o a ainmen o Uni ed Na ions
Sus ainable De elopmen Goal 3 (SDG3) on ensu ing heal hy li es and p omo ing well-
being o all people (including hose a isk o COVID-19 in ec ion) a all ages (Uni ed
Na ions (UN),2015). Since he minis e s o inance and he p i a e sec o chie execu i e
o ice s who con ol esou ces o add essing heal h de e minan s a e no usually public
heal h expe s, hey may no ully app ecia e he ad e se e ec s o non- a al disabili y
and p ema u e mo ali y om COVID-19 on mac oeconomic indica o s, such as he GDP
(WHO/AFRO,2006). The e o e, Minis ies o Heal h could u ilize e idence o he mone a y
alue o human li es and p oduc i i y losses in hei ad ocacy and collabo a ion wi h o he
go e nmen sec o s and s akeholde s o p e en o educe dea hs and non- a al disabili ies.
Niewiadomski e al. (2025) conduc ed a sys ema ic e iew o he e idence on p o-
duc i i y losses esul ing om heal h p oblems associa ed wi h he COVID-19 pandemic,
based on da a om popula ion-le el s udies. Ou o 38 s udies eligible o e iew, 79% used
he Human Capi al App oach. O he 33 s udies eligible o quan i a i e compa ison, he
au ho s ound ha he p oduc i i y losses anged om 0 o 2.1% o g oss domes ic p oduc .
Hanly e al. (2022) applied he human capi al app oach o es ima e p ema u e mo ali y
p oduc i i y cos s (indi ec cos s) associa ed wi h COVID-19 ac oss nine coun ies (Bel-
gium, F ance, Ge many, I aly, he Ne he lands, Po ugal, Spain, Sweden and Swi ze land)
in Eu ope. Simila s udies a e ela i ely limi ed on he A ican con inen .
Thus, a apid s udy was necessa y o u ilize he mos ecen seconda y da a o add ess
h ee esea ch ques ions. (a) Wha is he discoun ed mone a y alue o he cumula i e
numbe o human li es los due o COVID-19 in A ica om he beginning o he pandemic
ill 30 June 2021? (b) Wha is he app oxima e magni ude o he di ec heal h sys ems
cos s incu ed in p e en ing and managing COVID-19 in ec ions in A ica? (c) Wha is he
app oxima e cos sa ing an icipa ed om COVID-19 accina ions?
The speci ic s udy objec i es we e he ollowing: (a) To es ima e he discoun ed
mone a y alue o he cumula i e numbe o human li e losses in A ica associa ed wi h
Economies 2025,13, 241 3 o 48
COVID-19 as o 30 June 2021. (b) To es ima e he indi ec and di ec cos s associa ed wi h he
ac ual epo ed COVID-19 in ec ions in A ica. (c) To p ojec po en ial sa ings o educ ions
in indi ec and di ec heal h sys em cos s, assuming 100% o he a ge popula ion in A ica
is accina ed agains COVID-19.
2. Me hods
This sec ion ou lines he me hods employed o achie e he s udy objec i es s a ed abo e.
2.1. S udy A ea and Popula ion
As al eady s a ed, he analysis epo ed in his pape is on he 54 so e eign s a es o
he A ican con inen (See Supplemen a y Table S1). The e o e, he analysis ocuses on
A ica’s so e eign s a es, wi h 5,465,790 labo a o y-con i med COVID-19 cases (including
142,171 dea hs) as o 30 June 2021 (Wo ldome e ,2021). Supplemen a y Table S2 summa-
izes he 4,794,317 eco e ed cases, 529,302 ac i e cases, and 142,171 dea hs om COVID-19
epo ed among so e eign s a es as o 30 June 2021 (Wo ldome e ,2021).
2.2. S udy Design
We u ilized a c oss-sec ional s udy design o colla e adminis a i e da a on a iables
used in he analysis om seconda y sou ces.
2.3. Concep ual F amewo k o Valua ion o Human Li e
2.3.1. O e iew
As D ummond e al. (2015) explain, h ee app oaches exis o assign mone a y alues
o heal h ou comes, such as human li e. Fi s , he willingness o pay (WTP) (o con ingen
alua ion) app oach uses su ey me hods o e eal he maximum amoun households
(o indi iduals) would hypo he ically be willing o pay o a p og am (o in e en ion)
ha could po en ially educe he p obabili y o a loss o a s a is ical li e (i.e., he li e o an
unknown pe son) (Mooney,1977). Some s eng hs o he WTP app oach, as highligh ed
by Mooney (1977) and Jones-Lee (1982,1985), include i s abili y o alue non-economic
aspec s o he in e en ion (e.g., he in insic pleasu e o being ali e o disease- ee) and i s
inco po a ion o consume p e e ences. On he o he hand, he app oach’s main weaknesses
a e as ollows: heal hca e consume s (pa ien s) may no be a ional and so e eign decision-
make s, assume ha indi idual p e e ences a e s a ic, WTP is a unc ion o income and
weal h only, and may be p one o esponse bias (Jones-Lee,1982;Mooney,1977). Mo eo e ,
applying he WTP app oach was impossible due o he ongoing communi y ci cula ion
o a ious COVID-19 a ian s and he challenges o ob aining elephone numbe s o
adminis e WTP ques ionnai es emo ely.
The second app oach is he implied alues (o e ealed p e e ences) me hod (IVA).
The IVA is based on he alues placed on p e en ing loss o li e by pas indi iduals o
poli ical decision-make s (Mooney,1977). One s eng h o IVA is ha i elies on ac ual,
implied li e alues in a ious heal h- ela ed policy con ex s. A poli ically designa ed pe son
(e.g., a Membe o Pa liamen ) p o ides he alues, and he in o ma ion is eadily a ailable
in public sec o documen s (Mooney,1977). Howe e , he weaknesses o IVA include he
ollowing: decisions o in es in speci ic heal h p ojec s a e no de e mined by popula
o e and migh hus su e om selec ion bias; simila li es may be alued di e en ly
depending on he public sec o wi h which he pe son p o iding alues is a ilia ed; he
equi emen alues p o ided need o be consis en ac oss he s a is ical li es being alued
and canno be me by such implici and a bi a y alua ions based on poli ical p ocesses
and hei ou comes (Mooney,1977;Jones-Lee,1982).
Economies 2025,13, 241 4 o 48
The hi d me hod is he human capi al app oach (HCA), which was i s applied by
Pe y (1699) in he 17 h Cen u y and whose heo e ical unde pinning was de eloped much
la e by Fein (1958), Mushkin and Collings (1959), Weisb od (1971), and Lande eld and
Seskin (1982). HCA alues li e in e ms o he p esen alue o u u e ou pu los (as p oxied
by po en ial ea nings los ) due o p ema u e mo ali y om any cause, e.g., mala ia (Chima
e al.,2003), non-communicable diseases (Kankeu e al.,2013), and COVID-19 (Musango
e al.,2024). The me hod’s s eng hs include ease o unde s anding by policymake s, he use
o objec i e da a on ea nings, and he ou ine collec ion o da a on mo bidi y and mo ali y
(Mooney,1977). Howe e , acco ding o Mooney (1977), he weaknesses o HCA include
i s ocus on he li elihoods ha people ob ain om good heal h a he han he bene i s
o heal h pe se, dis ega d o cu en p e e ences o po en ial bene icia ies, a achmen
o g ea e weigh o he li es o he weal hy, and disc imina ion agains hose no in he
labo ma ke , e.g., homemake s, he e i ed, he unemployed, he se e ely handicapped,
and child en below he minimum wo k-age limi . In he s udy epo ed in his pape , he
HCA was applied due o i s s eng hs, he un easibili y o collec ing p ima y da a due o
he global COVID-19 pandemic a he ime, and he a ailabili y o seconda y da a on GDP
pe capi a, cu en heal h expendi u e pe capi a, a e age li e expec ancy, and he numbe
o COVID-19 dea hs o all coun ies in A ica.
2.3.2. An HCA Model o Es ima ing he Discoun ed Mone a y Value o Human Li e
Losses Associa ed wi h COVID-19
In line wi h he WHO guidelines on he measu emen o he economic impac o
disease and inju ies (WHO,2009) and ecen empi ical COVID-19 s udies (Musango e al.,
2024), he cu en s udy es ima ed he mone a y alue o discoun ed agg ega e lows o
he cu en and u u e consump ion o non-heal h goods and se ices o egone due o
p ema u e mo ali y (a 16 age g oups) a ibu ed o COVID-19. The cu en s udy used
non-heal h GDP pe capi a in he es ima ions o he alue o each s a is ical human li e los
o COVID-19 in A ica. The non-heal h GDP pe capi a is he di e ence be ween GDP pe
capi a and cu en heal h expendi u e pe capi a o each so e eign s a e. Acco ding o
G ossman (2000), an indi idual de i es u ili y (happiness) om heal h, a he han om
he consump ion o heal hca e. Thus, he demand o heal hca e and o he heal h inpu s is
de i ed om he basic demand o heal h.
The A ican con inen ’s o al mone a y alue (TMV
A ica
) o human li e losses associa ed
wi h COVID-19 is he sum o each o he 54 coun ies’ o al mone a y alue (TMV
j=1,...,54
)
(Kankeu e al.,2013;Weisb od,1971). Fo mulaically, he alue is he ollowing:
TMVA ica =∑i=54
i=1TMVj=1,...,54 (1)
Fu he , each o he j h coun y’s TMV o human li e losses om COVID-19 was
es ima ed using he ollowing o mula (Kankeu e al.,2013;Musango e al.,2024):
TMVj=∑i=16
i=1MVi=1,...,16 (2)
whe e,
∑i=16
i=1(.)
is he sum o discoun ed mone a y alues o human losses om COVID-19 in age
g oups 1 = 0–4 yea s, 2 = 5–9 yea s, 3 = 10–14, 4 = 15–19 yea s, 5 = 20–24 yea s,
6 = 25–29 yea s
,
7 = 30–34 yea s, 8 = 35–39 yea s, 9 = 40–44 yea s, 10 = 45–49 yea s,
11 = 50–54 yea s
,
12 = 55–59 yea s
, 13 = 60–64 yea s, 14 = 65–69 yea s, 15 = 70–74 yea s, and 16 = 75 yea s
and olde ; and MV
i
is he mone a y alue o a li e los o he i h age g oup. Only Sou h
A ica and Tunisia epo ed COVID-19 dea hs in he 16 age g oups. The b eakdown o dea hs
associa ed wi h COVID-19 by he 16 age g oups was una ailable o 52 coun ies. Since he

Economies 2025,13, 241 5 o 48
COVID-19 dea hs age b eakdown was no a ailable o o he A ican coun ies, he age dis i-
bu ion o he wo coun ies was used o b eak down he dea hs sus ained in he emaining
52 coun ies.
The discoun ed MV
i
pe age g oup was es ima ed using he ollowing equa ion (Kankeu
e al.,2013;Musango e al.,2024):
MVi=∑ =n
=1n1/(1+ ) ×GDPPCj−CEHPCj×ALEj−AADi×TCOVDj×Pio(3)
whe e
∑ =n
=1(.)
is he summa ion om he i s yea o li e los ( = 1) o he las yea o
li e los ( = n) pe dea h in an age g oup; is he discoun a e, i.e., 3% in he cu en
s udy; GDPPC
j
is he GDP pe capi a o he j h coun y in 2021; CEHPC
j
is he cu en
expendi u e on heal h pe capi a in he j h coun y in 2021; ALE
j
is he na ional a e age
li e expec ancy in coun y j; AAD
i
is he a e age age a he onse o dea h in i h age g oup;
TCOVD
j
is he o al numbe o human li es los om COVID-19 in he j h coun y as o
30 June 2021; and P
i
is he p opo ion o COVID-19 dea hs bo ne by age g oup i. The base
yea o he calcula ions was 2021.
2.3.3. Da a and Da a Sou ces
The mone a y alue o human li e losses associa ed wi h COVID-19 in 54 A ican
coun ies was calcula ed using eigh da a ypes. Fi s , he discoun a es o 3%, 5%, and
10% a e commonly used in heal h- ela ed s udies, such as hose by Musango e al. (2024),
Haacke e al. (2020), A ema e al. (2018), and Edeje e al. (2003). Second, he da a on
he cumula i e numbe o human li es los om COVID-19 pe coun y in A ica as o
June 30, 2021, om he Wo ldome e Co ona i us Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic Da abase
(Wo ldome e ,2021) (See Supplemen a y Table S2).
Thi d, he pe capi a GDP (GDPPC) in 2021 In e na ional Dolla s o pu chasing powe
pa i y (PPP) pe coun y om he IMF Wo ld Economic Ou look Da abase (See Supplemen-
a y Table S3) (In e na ional Mone a y Fund (IMF),2021). Fou h, he cu en expendi u e
on heal h pe capi a in 2021 In e na ional Dolla s was p ojec ed using in o ma ion om he
WHO Global Heal h Expendi u e Da abase (See Supplemen a y Table S4) (WHO,2019a).
Fi h, he dis ibu ion o COVID-19-associa ed dea hs ac oss 16 age g oups was un-
a ailable o all 54 coun ies. I was only a ailable o Sou h A ica (S a is a,2021a) and
Tunisia (S a is a,2021b). As explained in Sec ion 2.3.2, he age dis ibu ion o he wo
coun ies was used o b eak down COVID-19 dea hs in o he A ican coun ies. The e o e,
using he age s uc u e o COVID-19 dea hs in Sou h A ica and Tunisia o b eak down
dea hs sus ained in he emaining 52 A ican coun ies assumes ha he dis ibu ion in
hese wo coun ies e lec s hei gene al popula ion dis ibu ion.
Table 1, column 2 p esen s Sou h A ica’s age dis ibu ion o COVID-19 dea hs (S a is a,
2021a). The 16 age-g oup p opo ions o Sou h A ica we e applied o Angola, Bo swana,
Bu undi, Como os, Democ a ic Republic o he Congo, Eswa ini, Kenya, Leso ho, Madagas-
ca , Malawi, Mau i ius, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Seychelles, Sou h A ica, Sou h
Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, i.e., he Eas A ican Communi y [EAC]
and Sou he n A ican De elopmen Communi y [SADC] coun ies.
On he o he hand, he COVID-19 dea hs age g oup dis ibu ion o Tunisia is dis-
played in Table 1, column 3 (S a is a,2021b). These p opo ions we e applied o mem-
be coun ies o he A ab Magh eb Union [AMU] (Alge ia, Libya, Mau i ania, Mo occo,
Tunisia), he Cen al A ican Economic and Mone a y Communi y [CEMAC] (Came oon,
Chad, he Cen al A ican Republic, Equa o ial Guinea, Gabon, he Republic o Congo,
Sao Tome and P incipe), and he Economic Communi y o Wes A ican S a es [ECOWAS]
(Benin, Bu kina Faso, Cabo Ve de, Co e d’I oi e, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-
Bissau, Libe ia, Mali, Nige , Nige ia, Senegal, Sie a Leone, Togo). Al hough Angola and
Economies 2025,13, 241 6 o 48
he DRC a e membe s o bo h CEMAC and SADC, Bu undi and Rwanda a e membe s
o bo h EAC and CEMAC. The age dis ibu ion o Sou h A ica was applied o hese
ou coun ies.
Table 1. Sou h A ica and Tunisia’s age dis ibu ion o COVID-19 dea hs.
Age G oup (Yea s) Sou h A ica (Pe cen ) * Tunisia (Pe cen ) **
0–4 yea s 0.275 0.014
5–9 yea s 0.175 0.000
10–14 yea s 0.175 0.014
15–19 yea s 0.375 0.078
20–24 yea s 0.575 0.071
25–29 yea s 1.075 0.107
30–34 yea s 2.075 0.170
35–39 yea s 3.275 0.448
40–44 yea s 4.575 0.618
45–49 yea s 6.575 1.051
50–54 yea s 8.975 2.223
55–59 yea s 12.675 4.482
60–64 yea s 14.175 9.192
65–69 yea s 13.175 18.802
70–74 yea s 10.675 23.114
75 yea s and olde 21.175 39.615
Sou ce: * S a is a (2021a); ** S a is a (2021b).
Six h, he a e age li e expec ancy (ALE) o each coun y was ex ac ed om he
Wo ldome e Da abase (See Supplemen a y Table S5) (Wo ldome e ,2021). The wo ld’s
highes a e age li e expec ancy a bi h, 88 yea s o emales in Hong Kong, was used in
he sensi i i y analysis om he same da abase.
2.3.4. Da a Analysis
Equa ions (1)–(3) we e es ima ed using Mic oso Excel so wa e (Mic oso Co po a-
ion, New Yo k, NY, USA), and he analysis in ol ed 12 s eps.
S ep 1: Equa ions (2) and (3), p esen ed in Sec ion 2.3.2, we e cons uc ed in o 54 Excel
shee s (i.e., one shee pe coun y) o calcula e he MVi pe i h age g oup. The summa ion
ope a ion de i es he j h coun y’s TMV o human li e losses om COVID-19.
S ep 2: Equa ion (1) was inco po a ed in o a sepa a e Excel shee o de i e he
TMVA ica o human li e losses associa ed wi h COVID-19, i.e., o calcula e he o al mone-
a y alue o each o he 54 coun ies.
S ep 3: In each coun y, he numbe o COVID-19 dea hs pe age g oup is equal o he
o al numbe o dea hs om COVID-19 mul iplied by he espec i e age g oup p opo ion
(see Supplemen a y Table S6). Fo example, Alge ia had los 3708 li es o COVID-19
by 30 June 2021, and he p opo ion o hese dea hs in he 45–49-yea age g oup was
0.0105128569399062 (1.051%). Thus, he numbe o dea hs bo ne by he 45–49-yea -olds
equals 39, i.e., 3708 imes 0.0105128569399062.
S ep 4: Since he la es cu en expendi u e on heal h pe capi a (CEHPC) a ail-
able a he ime in he WHO Global Heal h Expendi u e Da abase was o 2018 (a he
ime o he analysis), i was necessa y o o ecas each coun y’s CEHPC o 2021 us-
Economies 2025,13, 241 7 o 48
ing exis ing 2017 and 2018 da a (see Supplemen a y Table S4). The CEHPC g ow h a e
be ween he yea s 2017 (CEHPC2017) and 2018 (CEHPC2018) equals [(CEHPC2018
−
CEHPC2017)/CEHPC2017]. Fo example, Alge ia’s CEHPC in 2017 was In $970.26824951,
and i s CEHPC in 2018 was In $962.71936035. The g ow h a e be ween 2017 and 2018
equals
−
0.00778020837414019, i.e., [(962.71936035
−
970.26824951)/970.26824951]. Thus,
he p ojec ions ac oss he yea s 2019 o 2021 assume ha he g ow h a e be ween 2017 and
2018 will be sus ained, i.e., i will emain cons an .
S ep 5: The non-heal h GDP pe capi a (NHGDPPC
j
) o each o he 54 coun ies was
calcula ed by sub ac ing he espec i e CEHPC om GDPPC (see Supplemen a y Table
S4). Fo ins ance, since Alge ia’s GDP pe capi a was In $11,435 and CEHPC was In $940
in 2021, he non-heal h GDP pe capi a equals In $10,495, i.e., 11,435 minus 940.
S ep 6: The a e age age a onse o dea h (AAD
i
) o each o he i s 15 age g oups in
Table 2was calcula ed as a simple a e age, e.g., he AAD o 0–4-yea -olds equals 2 yea s,
which is (0 + 4)/2. We assumed an AAD o 75 yea s o hose 75 yea s and olde . The e was
no indi idual coun y-speci ic da a on he numbe o dea hs a each age ha could ha e
shown a ia ions ac oss coun ies. The e o e, he mid/a e age age o each o he 16 age
g oups was used o cons uc he a e age age a dea h.
Table 2. A e age age o onse o COVID-19 dea h pe age g oup.
Age G oup A e age Age o Onse (Yea s) *
0–4 yea s 2
5–9 yea s 7
10–14 yea s 12
15–19 yea s 17
20–24 yea s 22
25–29 yea s 27
30–34 yea s 32
35–39 yea s 37
40–44 yea s 42
45–49 yea s 47
50–54 yea s 52
55–59 yea s 57
60–64 yea s 62
65–69 yea s 67
70–74 yea s 72
Sou ce: * Au ho ’s es ima es.
S ep 7: The undiscoun ed yea s o li e los (UDYLL) o each age g oup was es ima ed
as he di e ence be ween he espec i e coun y’s ALE and he g oup’s AAD
i
. Fo example,
gi en ha he ALE o Alge ia was 77.5 yea s and he AAD o he 45–49 age g oup was
47 yea s, UDYLL = 77.5 −47 = 30.5 yea s.
S ep 8: The UDYLLs es ima ed in S ep 7 we e discoun ed (a a a e o 3%) because
people p e e heal h (o mone a y) bene i s oday a he han in he u u e. D ummond
e al. (2015) explained ha people migh ha e a posi i e a e o ime p e e ence be-
cause hey ha e a sho - e m iew o li e, unce ain ies ega ding he u u e, and posi i e
economic g ow h. The discoun ed yea o li e (DYLL) was calcula ed by mul iplying
each UDYLL by he co esponding discoun ac o . Fo example, he discoun ac o o
Economies 2025,13, 241 8 o 48
he i s
YLL = 1/(1 + ) = 1/(1 + 0.03)1= 0.970874
. The discoun ac o o he hi y- i s
YLL = 1/(1 + ) = 1/(1 + 0.03)31 = 0.399987
. The summa ion o discoun ac o s om he
i s YLL o he hi y- i s YLL (see S ep 7) in Alge ia yields 20 discoun ed YLL (DYLL).
S ep 9: The discoun ed mone a y alue (MV
i
) pe i h age g oup is he p oduc o DYLL,
NHGDPPC
j
, and he numbe o COVID-19 dea hs pe age g oup (TCOVDj). The calcula ion
can be illus a ed using he age g oup 44–49 yea s in Alge ia, whe e
DYLL44–49 = 20 yea s
( om S ep 8), NHGDPPC = $10,495 (see S ep 5), and TCOVD44-49 = 39 dea hs (see S ep 3).
The MV o 44–49-yea -olds = DYLL
44–49 ×
NHGPP
×
TCOVD
44–49
= 20
×
10,495
×
39 = In $8,186,100. The mone a y alues o he emaining 15 age g oups we e calcula ed
simila ly, applying Equa ion (3).
S ep 10: Applied Equa ion (2) o sum up he mone a y alues o human li es los in
he 16 age g oups o yield he TMV o each coun y.
S ep 11: Equa ion (3) was used o sum up he TMVs ac oss he 54 coun ies o de i e
he o al con inen al loss.
S ep 12: Sensi i i y analysis. In he baseline model used o es ima e each coun y’s TMV,
we assumed (a) a 3% discoun a e and (b) each coun y’s ALE. The e is no consensus in he
published li e a u e ega ding he wo a iables; hus, unce ain y exis s. In such a si ua ion, i
is s anda d p ac ice in epidemiology (Thabane e al.,2013) and heal h economics (D ummond
e al.,2015) o e un he model wi h di e en a iable alues o assess he obus ness and
c edibili y o he esul (s), e.g., he TMV in ou case. The e o e, as conduc ed in pas heal h
economics s udies in A ica and elsewhe e, we e-es ima ed he economic model using 3%, 5%,
and 10% discoun a es, while holding o he a iables, such as he numbe o COVID-19 dea hs
pe coun y, pe capi a GDP, and CEHPC, cons an . Fu he mo e, in line wi h pas p ac ice,
he economic model was e un h ee imes using each coun y’s ALE (See Supplemen a y
Table S5); he highes ALE in A ica was 77.5 yea s, and he wo ld’s highes ALE was 88 yea s
among emales in Hong Kong (Wo ldome e ,2021).
2.4. Concep ual F amewo k o Es ima ing he Cos o COVID-19 in A ica
The o al economic cos o COVID-19 (TC
COVID-19
) encompasses o al indi ec cos s
(
TICCOVID-19
), o al di ec cos s (
TDCCOVID-19
), and psychic/in angible cos s (
TPCCOVID-19
),
i.e.,
TCCOVID-19 =TICCOVID-19 +TDCCOVID-19 +TPCCOVID-19 (4)
2.4.1. To al Indi ec Cos Algo i hm
TICCOVID-19 =VPYLLCOVID-19 +VPTLNFL +VFTL (5)
whe e
VPYLLCOVID-19
is he alue o po en ially p oduc i e YLL due o p ema u e dea h
om COVID-19 among hose wi hin he wo king-age b acke (i.e., 15–64 yea s) in coun y j;
VPTLNFL
is he alue o p oduc i e ime los among non- a al COVID-19 cases in a speci ic
wo king-age b acke ;
VFTL
is he alue o wo k ime los among all amily membe s (and
iends) o wo king-age accompanying and/o isi ing pa ien s.
VPYLLCOVID-19 =TMV15−64 ×LFPR (6)
whe e
TMV15−64
is he j h coun y’s o al mone a y alue o YLL in 15–64 age b acke (see
Sec ion 2.3.2); LFPR is he p opo ion o j h coun y’s wo king-age popula ion ha ac i ely
engages in he labo ma ke , ei he by wo king o looking o wo k (see Supplemen a y
Table S7) (Wo ld Bank,2021). In p inciple, he wo k o ce pa icipa ion a es in he en age
g oups wi hin he 15–64-yea p oduc i e b acke would be expec ed o a y. In addi ion,
he e is e idence ha hose aged 50 yea s and abo e a e mo e incapaci a ed by COVID-19
in ec ions han hose in younge age g oups (15–49 yea s). Howe e , due o he una ail-
Economies 2025,13, 241 15 o 48
Table 5. The discoun ed mone a y alue o ac ual human li e losses om COVID-19 in A ica as o
30 June 2021 (in 2021 In $ o PPP).
Coun y Popula ion in
2021 * (A)
COVID-19 Dea hs
as o 30 June
2021 * (B)
To al Discoun ed
Mone a y Value o
Human Li es Los
(In $) [C] **
Discoun ed
Mone a y Value
pe Human Li e
Los (In $)
[D = C/B] **
The Discoun ed
Mone a y Value o
Human Li e Los pe
Pe son in he Popula ion
(In $) [E = C/A] **
Alge ia 44,634,463 3708 269,465,205 72,671 6.04
Angola 33,874,015 894 28,607,378 31,999 0.84
Benin 12,436,641 104 345,211 3319 0.03
Bo swana 2,398,576 1125 143,566,755 127,615 59.85
Bu kina Faso 21,468,861 168 363,206 2162 0.02
Bu undi 12,239,994 8 27,418 3427 0.00
Came oon 27,198,364 1324 3,157,829 2385 0.12
Cape Ve de 561,973 286 7,888,336 27,582 14.04
Cen al A ican
Republic 4,912,863 98 14,300 146 0.00
Chad 16,890,785 174 100,388 577 0.01
Como os 887,911 146 2,403,529 16,463 2.71
Congo,
Republic o 5,652,216 165 849,559 5149 0.15
Co e d’I oi e 27,023,309 313 990,128 3163 0.04
Congo,
Democ a ic
Republic o
92,245,852 924 4,024,545 4356 0.04
Equa o ial
Guinea 1,448,396 121 1,367,596 11,302 0.94
E i ea 3,595,038 23 70,886 3082 0.02
E hiopia 117,775,639 4320 21,655,959 5013 0.18
Gabon 2,277,613 159 3,850,813 24,219 1.69
Gambia, The 2,483,649 181 390,186 2156 0.16
Ghana 31,714,153 795 5,678,026 7142 0.18
Guinea 13,484,325 169 405,703 2401 0.03
Guinea-Bissau 2,013,948 69 96,821 1403 0.05
Kenya 54,941,831 3621 113,571,447 31,365 2.07
Leso ho 2,159,095 329 2,383,283 7244 1.10
Libe ia 5,175,111 127 240,645 1895 0.05
Madagasca 28,393,805 911 10,125,826 11,115 0.36
Malawi 19,617,945 1194 6,397,062 5358 0.33
Mali 20,826,158 525 953,852 1817 0.05
Mau i ania 4,770,294 487 3,849,297 7904 0.81

Economies 2025,13, 241 16 o 48
Table 5. Con .
Coun y Popula ion in
2021 * (A)
COVID-19 Dea hs
as o 30 June
2021 * (B)
To al Discoun ed
Mone a y Value o
Human Li es Los
(In $) [C] **
Discoun ed
Mone a y Value
pe Human Li e
Los (In $)
[D = C/B] **
The Discoun ed
Mone a y Value o
Human Li e Los pe
Pe son in he Popula ion
(In $) [E = C/A] **
Mau i ius 1,273,865 18 4,169,354 231,631 3.27
Mozambique 32,119,351 872 4,592,429 5267 0.14
Namibia 2,586,431 1445 72,902,503 50,452 28.19
Nige 25,069,087 193 262,578 1361 0.01
Nige ia 211,184,869 2120 3,996,746 1885 0.02
Rwanda 13,269,271 431 7,523,452 17,456 0.57
São Tomé and
P íncipe 223,185 37 378,869 10,240 1.70
Senegal 17,179,451 1166 8,699,508 7461 0.51
Seychelles 98,951 68 16,916,076 248,766 170.95
Sie a Leone 8,137,375 98 56,817 580 0.01
Sou h A ica 60,049,601 60,264 3,739,829,800 62,057 62.28
Sou h Sudan 11,323,788 117 335,752 2870 0.03
Swaziland 1,172,073 678 23,916,056 35,274 20.40
Tanzania 61,412,589 21 351,667 16,746 0.01
Togo 8,470,400 129 157,661 1222 0.02
Uganda 47,164,701 989 13,032,941 13,178 0.28
Zambia 18,891,903 2138 35,519,279 16,613 1.88
Zimbabwe 15,077,192 1761 20,034,980 11,377 1.33
Djibou i 1,002,228 155 1,504,127 9704 1.50
Egyp 104,243,582 16,148 714,752,930 44,263 6.86
Libya 6,963,848 3191 94,931,967 29,750 13.63
Mo occo 37,344,128 9292 428,373,900 46,101 11.47
Somalia 16,330,692 775 347,169 448 0.02
Sudan 44,860,676 2754 13,457,222 4886 0.30
Tunisia 11,941,219 14,843 845,216,224 56,944 70.78
TOTAL 1,370,493,279 142,171 6,684,101,196 47,015 4.88
Sou ces: * Wo ldome e (2021); ** Au ho s’ es ima es.
As depic ed in Figu e 1, he TMV a ied widely om a minimum o In $14,300 in he
Cen al A ican Republic o a maximum o In $3,739,829,800 in Sou h A ica.
Economies 2025,13, 241 17 o 48
269,465,205
28,607,378
345,211
143,566,755
363,206
27,418
3,157,829
7,888,336
14,300
100,388
2,403,529
849,559
990,128
4,024,545
1,367,596
70,886
21,655,959
3,850,813
390,186
5,678,026
405,703
96,821
113,571,447
2,383,283
240,645
10,125,826
6,397,062
953,852
3,849,297
4,169,354
4,592,429
72,902,503
262,578
3,996,746
7,523,452
378,869
8,699,508
16,916,076
56,817
3,739,829,800
335,752
23,916,056
351,667
157,661
13,032,941
35,519,279
20,034,980
1,504,127
714,752,930
94,931,967
428,373,900
347,169
13,457,222
845,216,224
- 1,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 4,000,000,000
Alge ia
Benin
Bu kina Faso
Came oon
Cen al A ican Republic
Como os
Co e D'I oi e
Equa o ial Guinea
E hiopia
Gambia
Guinea
Kenya
Libe ia
Malawi
Mau i ania
Mozambique
Nige
Rwanda
Senegal
Sie a Leone
Sou h Sudan
Tanzania
Uganda
Zimbabwe
Egyp
Mo occo
Sudan
In e na ional Dolla s (In $)
Figu e 1. Discoun ed o al mone a y alue o human li e losses associa ed wi h COVID-19 in A ica
by 30 June 2021 (in In e na ional Dolla s).
Economies 2025,13, 241 18 o 48
Figu e 2po ays he dis ibu ion o TMV ac oss he 16 age g oups. Abou
In $133,548,537 (2.0%) acc ued o 0–14-yea -olds; In $4,591,809,977 (68.7%) o 15–59-yea -
olds; and In $1,958,742,682 (29.3%) o 60-yea -olds and abo e.
60,586,561
36,021,066
36,940,910
82,974,899
114,056,479
196,791,749
346,905,641
517,582,921
636,396,282
787,918,794
914,403,399
994,779,813
809,865,422
664,777,066
331,010,713
153,089,481
- 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75 and olde
In e na ional Dolla s (In $)
Age g oup in yea s
Figu e 2. Discoun ed mone a y alue o human li e losses om COVID-19 by age g oup in
A ica (In $).
Abou In $133,548,537 (2.0%) acc ued o 0
−
14-yea -olds; In $4,591,809,977 (68.7%)
o 15
−
59-yea -olds; and In $1,958,742,682 (29.3%) o 60-yea -olds and abo e. Thus, mos
o he mone a y alue o li es los o COVID-19 acc ued o he mos socioeconomically
p oduc i e age b acke , i.e.,15–59-yea -olds.
The a e age mone a y alue was In $47,015 pe human li e los , and he mone a y
alue o human li e los pe pe son in he popula ion was In $4.88. The a e age TMV pe
COVID-19 dea h a ied widely om a minimum o In $146 in he Cen al A ican Republic
o a maximum o In $248,766 in Seychelles.
The i e coun ies wi h he highes a e age TMV pe human li e included Alge ia
wi h In $72,671, Bo swana wi h In $127,615, Mau i ius wi h In $231,631, Seychelles wi h
In $248,766, and Sou h A ica wi h In $62,057.
3.2. Economic Cos o COVID-19 in A ica
As explained ea lie in Sec ion 2.4 o he me hods, he es ima es o he o al economic
cos o COVID-19 (TC
COVID-19
) epo ed in his pape encompass only o al indi ec cos s
(TIC) and o al di ec cos s (TDC).
Economies 2025,13, 241 19 o 48
3.2.1. Indi ec Cos o COVID-19 in A ica
Table 6p esen s he o al and a e age indi ec cos s (p oduc i i y losses) incu ed pe
coun y as o 30 June 2021, due o COVID-19.
Table 6. To al and a e age indi ec cos among 15–64 yea s old by coun y in A ica (in 2021 In $
o PPP).
Coun y
(A). COVID-19
Dea hs 2021 *
(B). To al Mone a y
Value o Li es Los o
COVID-19 (In $) ***
(C). Labo Fo ce
Pa icipa ion
Ra e o Ages
15–64 (%) **
(D). To Indi ec
Cos (In $)
[D = Bx(C/100)] ***
(E). A e age
Indi ec Cos
[E = (D/A)] ***
Alge ia 684 109,107,102 46.4 50,625,695 74,040
Angola 486 27,554,096 77.9 21,464,641 44,176
Benin 19 342,422 71.7 245,517 12,802
Bo swana 611 133,347,604 73.0 97,343,751 159,205
Bu kina Faso 31 360,381 67.8 244,338 7887
Bu undi 4 26,455 80.0 21,164 4868
Came oon 244 3,121,502 76.9 2,400,435 9832
Cape Ve de 53 4,694,663 63.9 2,999,890 56,882
Cen al A ican
Rep 18 13,977 72.3 10,106 559
Chad 32 98,344 70.7 69,529 2167
Como os 79 2,329,866 46.6 1,085,718 13,682
Congo 30 844,274 70.3 593,524 19,507
Co e d’I oi e 58 977,392 54.6 533,656 9246
DRC 502 3,871,323 64.1 2,481,518 4941
Equa o ial Guinea 22 1,351,863 63.2 854,378 38,291
E i ea 4 62,991 81.3 51,212 12,075
E hiopia 797 19,419,954 81.3 15,788,423 19,819
Gabon 29 3,831,028 54.7 2,095,572 71,473
Gambia The 33 387,034 60.5 234,155 7016
Ghana 147 5,642,699 69.2 3,904,748 26,636
Guinea 31 402,426 63.0 253,528 8135
Guinea Bissau 13 95,658 72.9 69,735 5481
Kenya 1968 110,454,961 74.6 82,399,401 41,869
Leso ho 179 2,244,799 69.9 1,569,114 8775
Libe ia 23 239,148 77.1 184,383 7873
Madagasca 495 9,675,527 87.2 8,437,060 17,040
Malawi 649 6,212,044 77.3 4,801,910 7400
Mali 97 944,317 71.3 673,298 6955
Mau i ania 90 3,827,676 46.5 1,779,869 19,820
Mau i ius 10 3,467,754 66.2 2,295,653 234,657
Mozambique 474 4,422,875 78.3 3,463,111 7307
Namibia 785 70,668,214 60.6 42,824,938 54,529
Nige 36 260,749 73.4 191,390 5378
Nige ia 391 3,922,315 56.7 2,223,953 5689
Economies 2025,13, 241 20 o 48
Table 6. Con .
Coun y
(A). COVID-19
Dea hs 2021 *
(B). To al Mone a y
Value o Li es Los o
COVID-19 (In $) ***
(C). Labo Fo ce
Pa icipa ion
Ra e o Ages
15–64 (%) **
(D). To Indi ec
Cos (In $)
[D = Bx(C/100)] ***
(E). A e age
Indi ec Cos
[E = (D/A)] ***
Sou h Sudan 64 320,264 73.8 236,355 3717
Rwanda 234 6,987,929 84.1 5,876,849 25,088
Sao Tome e
P incipe 7 281,197 59.9 168,437 24,687
Senegal 215 7,213,397 47.1 3,397,510 15,802
Seychelles 37 14,790,765 66.6 9,849,170 266,496
Sie a Leone 18 55,759 58.8 32,786 1814
Sou h A ica 32,753 3,625,212,884 60.1 2,178,752,943 66,520
Swaziland
(Eswa ini) 368 22,951,859 54.7 12,554,667 34,070
Tanzania 11 341,496 84.5 288,564 25,283
Togo 24 156,146 58.5 91,346 3840
Uganda 538 12,607,006 70.9 8,938,367 16,629
Zambia 1162 34,430,697 75.1 25,857,454 22,252
Zimbabwe 957 19,295,282 84.0 16,208,037 16,934
Djibou i 29 1,348,824 63.7 859,201 30,061
Egyp 2978 460,883,696 47.9 220,763,290 74,139
Libya 588 61,213,594 52.8 32,320,778 54,928
Mo occo 1713 188,853,193 48.7 91,971,505 53,676
Somalia 143 342,073 49.4 168,984 1182
Sudan 508 13,381,636 49.7 6,650,673 13,096
Tunisia 2737 396,784,269 51.5 204,343,899 74,658
TOTAL (In $) 54,210 5,401,675,398 3,173,546,125 58,542
Sou ces: * Wo ldome e (2021), ** In e na ional Mone a y Fund (IMF) (2021), *** Au ho s’ es ima es.
App oxima ely 54,210 o he pe sons who died o COVID-19 in A ica we e aged
15–64 yea s. Those li es had a mone a y alue o In $5.402 billion. Adjus men o labo
o ce pa icipa ion a e yielded a Con inen al o al indi ec cos o In $3,173,546,125 and
an a e age o In $58,542 pe li e los in he 15–64 yea s b acke . Twen y- wo coun ies
(40.7%) had a o al indi ec cos o less han In $1 million; 18 coun ies (33.3%) had an
indi ec cos o In $1 million o In $10 million; and 14 coun ies (26.0%) had an indi ec cos
o In $11 million and abo e. Figu e 3illus a es ha he o al indi ec cos a ied widely,
anging om In $10,106 in he Cen al A ican Republic o a maximum o In $2,178,752,943
in Sou h A ica.
Figu e 4p esen s he a e age indi ec cos o COVID-19 in A ica. The i e coun-
ies wi h he highes a e age indi ec cos pe li e los we e Seychelles, wi h In $266,496;
Mau i ius, wi h In $234,657; Bo swana, wi h In $159,205; Tunisia, wi h In $74,658; and
Egyp , wi h In $74,139. The a e age indi ec cos pe COVID-19 dea h a ied om a
minimum o In $559 in he Cen al A ican Republic o a maximum o In $266,496 in
Seychelles. One (1.9%) coun y had less han In $1000 pe li e los ; 20 (37.0%) coun ies
had be ween In $1000 and In $10,000; 11 (20.4%) coun ies had be ween In $11,000 and
In $20,000; 6 (11.1%) coun ies had be ween In $21,000 and In $30,000; 16 (29.6%) coun ies
had In $31,000 and abo e.

Economies 2025,13, 241 21 o 48
2,178,752,943
220,763,290
204,343,899
97,343,751
91,971,505
82,399,401
50,625,695
42,824,938
32,320,778
25,857,454
21,464,641
16,208,037
15,788,423
12,554,667
9,849,170
8,938,367
8,437,060
6,650,673
5,876,849
4,801,910
3,904,748
3,463,111
3,397,510
2,999,890
2,481,518
2,400,435
2,295,653
2,223,953
2,095,572
1,779,869
1,569,114
1,085,718
859,201
854,378
673,298
593,524
533,656
288,564
253,528
245,517
244,338
236,355
234,155
191,390
184,383
168,984
168,437
91,346
69,735
69,529
51,212
32,786
21,164
10,106
- 500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,500,000,000
Sou h A ica
Egyp
Tunisia
Bo swana
Mo occo
Kenya
Alge ia
Namibia
Libya
Zambia
Angola
Zimbabwe
E hiopia
Swaziland (Eswa ini)
Seychelles
Uganda
Madagasca
Sudan
Rwanda
Malawi
Ghana
Mozambique
Senegal
Cape Ve de Is
DRC
Came oon
Mau i ius
Nige ia
Gabon
Mau i ania
Leso ho
Como os
Djibou i
Equa o ial Guinea
Mali
Congo
Co e d'I oi e
Tanzania
Guinea
Benin
Bu kina Faso
Sou h Sudan
Gambia
Nige
Libe ia
Somalia
Sao Tome e P incipe
Togo
Guinea Bissau
Chad
E i ea
Sie a Leone
Bu undi
Cen al A ican Rep
In e na ional Dolla s (o Pu chasing Powe Pa i y)
Figu e 3. To al indi ec cos o COVID-19 by coun y in A ica (in 2021 In $ o PPP).
Economies 2025,13, 241 22 o 48
266,496
234,657
159,205
74,658
74,139
74,040
71,473
66,520
56,882
54,928
54,529
53,676
44,176
41,869
38,291
34,070
30,061
26,636
25,283
25,088
24,687
22,252
19,820
19,819
19,507
17,040
16,934
16,629
15,802
13,682
13,096
12,802
12,075
9,832
9,246
8,775
8,135
7,887
7,873
7,400
7,307
7,016
6,955
5,689
5,481
5,378
4,941
4,868
3,840
3,717
2,167
1,814
1,182
559
- 100,000 200,000 300,000
Seychelles
Bo swana
Egyp
Gabon
Cape Ve de Is
Namibia
Angola
Equa o ial Guinea
Djibou i
Tanzania Uni Rep
Sao Tome e P incipe
Mau i ania
Congo
Zimbabwe
Senegal
Sudan
E i ea
Co e d'I oi e
Guinea
Libe ia
Mozambique
Mali
Guinea Bissau
DRC
Togo
Chad
Somalia
In e na ional Dolla s (In $)
Figu e 4. A e age indi ec cos o COVID-19 by coun y in A ica (in 2021 In $ o PPP).
3.2.2. Di ec Cos o COVID-19 in A ica
As depic ed in Table 7, he o al di ec heal h sys em cos o p e en ing and managing
COVID-19 cases in A ica is es ima ed a In $3,981,927,049. Fi e coun ies (Alge ia, Egyp ,
Mo occo, Tunisia, and Sou h A ica) alone bo e 86.7% (In $3.45 billion) o he Con inen ’s
o al di ec cos .
Economies 2025,13, 241 23 o 48
Table 7. Es ima ed di ec cos o p e en ing and managing COVID-19 cases as o 30 June 2021.
Coun y
(A) To al COVID-19 Cases *
(B) Cu en Heal h
Expendi u e pe Capi a
in 2021 (In $) **
(C) Di ec Cos (In $)
[C = A ×B)] ***
Alge ia 139,229 940 130,934,190
Angola 38,682 115 4,448,923
Benin 8199 85 700,219
Bo swana 69,680 1082 75,380,140
Bu kina Faso 13,479 73 977,779
Bu undi 5428 89 485,399
Cabo Ve de 32,457 481 15,617,354
Came oon 80,858 154 12,492,030
Cen al A ican Republic 7141 540 3,855,622
Chad 4951 62 306,781
Como os 3912 144 562,929
Congo 12,596 51 643,920
Djibou i 11,602 136 1,580,972
DRC 40,836 18 720,805
Egyp 281,031 491 138,124,544
Equa o ial Guinea 8734 585 5,105,836
E i ea 5936 139 823,562
Eswa ini 19,084 659 12,581,054
E hiopia 276,037 70 19,349,040
Gabon 24,984 482 12,034,455
Gambia 6079 76 464,312
Ghana 95,642 244 23,291,505
Guinea 23,753 138 3,272,720
Guinea-Bissau 3853 137 529,337
Co e d’I oi e (I o y Coas ) 48,242 181 8,746,361
Kenya 183,603 263 48,349,428
Leso ho 11,344 399 4,529,139
Libe ia 3900 59 230,223
Libya 193,238 8 1,559,041
Madagasca 42,207 60 2,518,105
Malawi 35,897 115 4,133,405
Mali 14,422 87 1,248,415
Mau i ania 20,747 219 4,553,581
Mau i ius 1833 1741 3,190,929
Mo occo 530,585 560 297,383,335
Mozambique 75,828 143 10,815,752
Economies 2025,13, 241 24 o 48
Table 7. Con .
Coun y
(A) To al COVID-19 Cases *
(B) Cu en Heal h
Expendi u e pe Capi a
in 2021 (In $) **
(C) Di ec Cos (In $)
[C = A ×B)] ***
Namibia 86,649 778 67,442,498
Nige 5488 79 434,235
Nige ia 167,543 273 45,673,668
Rwanda 38,198 279 10,639,375
São Tomé and P íncipe 2366 215 507,569
Senegal 42,957 156 6,702,574
Seychelles 15,579 1922 29,950,243
Sie a Leone 5495 264 1,447,951
Somalia 14,933 30 447,990
Sou h A ica 1,954,466 1256 2,454,780,059
Sou h Sudan 10,834 52 561,673
Sudan 36,658 243 8,922,926
Tanzania 509 123 62,703
Togo 13,881 137 1,899,448
Tunisia 414,182 1036 429,152,254
Uganda 79,434 163 12,932,700
Zambia 152,056 324 49,332,595
Zimbabwe 48,533 196 9,495,444
TOTAL 5,465,790 3,981,927,049
Sou ce: * Wo ldome e (2021), ** Au ho s’ p ojec ions using da a om WHO (2019a), *** Au ho s’ es ima es.
Figu e 5shows ha he di ec cos s o p e en ing and managing COVID-19 in ec ions
a y widely om a minimum o In $62,703 in Tanzania o a maximum o In $2,454,780,059
in Sou h A ica.
Six een (30%) o he coun ies had a o al di ec cos o unde In $1 million, 18 (33%)
coun ies had be ween In $1 million and In $10 million, and he emaining 20 (37%) coun-
ies had a o al di ec cos o In $11 million and abo e. The main di ec cos d i e s
a e he size o pe capi a cu en heal h expendi u e, and he numbe o COVID-19 cases
iden i ied h ough labo a o y es ing pe coun y. The la e depends on he p opo ion o
he popula ion es ed and he numbe o hose who a e epo ed posi i e. The e is e idence
ha he popula ion co e age o COVID-19 es ing is e y low in mos A ican coun ies.
The e o e, he di ec cos es ima es epo ed in his pape could be unde es ima ed.
Economies 2025,13, 241 31 o 48
Table 9. Con .
Coun y Con ol G oup
Di ec Cos (In $)
Vaccine G oup
Di ec Cos (In $)
Gabon 31,707,221 10,719,555
Gambia, The 5,482,538 1,853,533
Ghana 223,211,109 75,463,056
Guinea 53,694,939 18,153,147
Guinea-Bissau 7,996,421 2,703,424
Kenya 418,146,512 141,366,680
Leso ho 24,913,510 8,422,742
Libe ia 8,829,117 2,984,942
Madagasca 48,958,347 16,551,804
Malawi 65,285,562 22,071,697
Mali 52,102,243 17,614,690
Mau i ania 30,259,150 10,229,992
Mau i ius 64,090,232 21,667,581
Mozambique 132,405,996 44,763,727
Namibia 58,181,480 19,669,954
Nige 57,327,529 19,381,251
Nige ia 1,663,857,712 562,515,851
Rwanda 106,816,010 36,112,282
Sao Tome and P incipe 1,383,754 467,819
Senegal 77,469,502 26,190,835
Seychelles 5,497,873 1,858,717
Sie a Leone 61,970,418 20,950,916
Sou h A ica 483,391,950 163,424,812
Sou h Sudan 16,966,806 5,736,126
Swaziland 22,331,405 7,549,786
Tanzania 218,647,124 73,920,067
Togo 33,498,430 11,325,126
Uganda 221,928,779 75,029,526
Zambia 177,141,323 59,887,815
Zimbabwe 85,253,530 28,822,454
Djibou i 3,947,041 1,334,413
Egyp 1,480,743,156 500,608,610
Libya 1,623,783 548,967
Mo occo 604,919,747 204,510,845
Somalia 14,159,230 4,786,942
Sudan 315,586,269 106,693,185
Tunisia 357,587,739 120,893,013
I he uni cos pe COVID-19 case managed equals he espec i e coun y’s pe
capi a cu en heal h expendi u e, he con inen al o al di ec cos wi hou accina ion is
In $9,459,720,500. Con as ingly, he o al con inen al di ec cos o he Ox o d–As aZeneca
accina ion is es ima ed a In $3,198,135,685.

Economies 2025,13, 241 32 o 48
Figu e 8shows ha COVID-19 accina ion could po en ially sa e A ica a leas
In $6,261,584,816 in di ec heal h sys ems cos s.
1,101,341,861
980,134,546
802,996,067
400,408,902
319,967,138
276,779,832
236,694,727
208,893,084
157,930,982
147,748,054
146,899,253
144,727,057
117,253,509
93,726,056
87,642,270
80,384,542
74,530,213
70,703,728
56,431,076
51,278,667
50,744,593
49,638,885
43,213,865
42,422,651
41,019,502
38,511,526
37,946,278
35,541,792
34,487,553
32,406,543
31,148,801
29,792,819
22,173,304
20,987,666
20,939,206
20,318,695
20,029,157
20,021,916
16,490,768
16,197,975
14,781,619
11,230,680
9,541,700
9,372,287
5,844,176
5,527,613
5,292,997
5,172,902
3,639,156
3,629,006
2,612,628
2,444,240
1,074,816
915,936
- 400,000,000 800,000,000 1,200,000,000
Nige ia
Egyp
Alge ia
Mo occo
Sou h A ica
Kenya
Tunisia
Sudan
E hiopia
Ghana
Uganda
Tanzania
Zambia
Co e d'I oi e
Mozambique
Came oon
Angola
Rwanda
Zimbabwe
Senegal
Cen al A ican Republic
Bo swana
Malawi
Mau i ius
Sie a Leone
Namibia
Nige
Guinea
Mali
Madagasca
Congo, Democ a ic Republic o
Bu kina Faso
Togo
Gabon
Bu undi
Benin
Mau i ania
Chad
Leso ho
Equa o ial Guinea
Swaziland
Sou h Sudan
E i ea
Somalia
Libe ia
Congo, Republic o
Guinea-Bissau
Cape Ve de
Seychelles
Gambia, The
Djibou i
Como os
Libya
Sao Tome and P incipe
In e na ional Dolla s (In $)
Figu e 8. To al di ec cos sa ings wi h COVID-19 Ox o d–As aZeneca accina ion in A ica (in 2021
In $ o PPP).
Economies 2025,13, 241 33 o 48
The di ec cos sa ings due o he Ox o d–As aZeneca accine ange om a minimum o
In $915,936 in São Tomé and P incipe o a maximum o In $1,101,341,861. Abou 12 (22.2%)
coun ies a e expec ed o make di ec cos sa ings o less han In $10 million; 21 (38.9%)
coun ies be ween In $10 million and In $50 million; 8 (14.8%) coun ies be ween In $51 million
and In $100 million; and 13 (24.1%) coun ies wi h sa ings o In $101 million and abo e.
3.3.2. Sa ings in Po en ial Indi ec Cos s o COVID-19 in A ica Expec ed om COVID-19
Vaccina ion
Applying he isk o dea h epo ed by Be nal e al. (2021), i is es ima ed ha
1,656,615 un accina ed pe sons aged 15–64 yea s would die om COVID-19 compa ed o
289,880 dea hs among hose accina ed. We es ima e ha he o al indi ec cos in A ica is
In $42,863,554,186 among un accina ed pe sons aged 15–64 yea s and In $7,500,403,177
among hose accina ed. Thus, he o al indi ec cos sa ing om accina ion is app oxi-
ma ely In $35,363,151,009 in A ica.
Figu e 9shows ha he o al indi ec cos sa ings om he COVID-19 Ox o d–
As aZeneca accina ion in A ica ange om In $1,587,020 in he Cen al A ican Republic
o In $6,800,921,734 in Sou h A ica.
Fou (7%) coun ies had indi ec cos sa ings o less han In $10 million; 12 (22%) coun-
ies had be ween In $10 million and In $50 million; 10 (19%) coun ies had be ween In $50
million and In $100 million; and 28 (52%) coun ies had sa ings o In $101 million o mo e.
3.3.3. Sa ings in Po en ial To al Cos s o COVID-19 in A ica Expec ed om COVID-19
Vaccina ion
I is es ima ed ha he accina ion o 100% o he eligible popula ion in A ica wi h he
Ox o d–As aZeneca accine would po en ially p e en 26.22 million COVID-19 in ec ions
and a e 4,293,234 dea hs. Almos 32.4% o he la e would be among hose aged 15–64.
As depic ed in Table 10, accina ing all eligible people would sa e he con inen
app oxima ely In $41,624,735,824. Ou o hese, In $6.262 billion (15.0%) ep esen s a di ec
cos sa ings, and In $35.363 billion (85.0%) ep esen s an indi ec cos sa ings.
Table 10. Sa ings in po en ial o al cos s o COVID-19 expec ed om COVID-19 accina ion in A ica
(in 2021 In $ o PPP).
Coun y Di ec Cos Sa ings (In $)
Indi ec Cos Sa ings (In $)
To al Cos Sa ings (In $)
Alge ia 802,996,067 1,909,014,416 2,712,010,483
Angola 74,530,213 2,547,771,063 2,622,301,276
Benin 20,318,695 91,972,651 112,291,346
Bo swana 49,638,885 650,154,625 699,793,511
Bu kina Faso 29,792,819 97,813,488 127,606,307
Bu undi 20,939,206 101,436,938 122,376,144
Came oon 80,384,542 154,472,902 234,857,444
Cape Ve de 5,172,902 18,465,553 23,638,455
Cen al A ican Republic 50,744,593 1,587,020 52,331,613
Chad 20,021,916 21,143,503 41,165,418
Como os 2,444,240 20,684,314 23,128,555
Congo, Republic o 5,527,613 63,691,418 69,219,031
Co e d’I oi e 93,726,056 144,332,155 238,058,211
Democ a ic Republic o Congo 31,148,801 776,068,275 807,217,076
Equa o ial Guinea 16,197,975 32,037,564 48,235,539
Economies 2025,13, 241 34 o 48
Table 10. Con .
Coun y Di ec Cos Sa ings (In $)
Indi ec Cos Sa ings (In $)
To al Cos Sa ings (In $)
E i ea 9,541,700 25,075,786 34,617,486
E hiopia 157,930,982 1,348,397,948 1,506,328,931
Gabon 20,987,666 94,035,774 115,023,440
Gambia 3,629,006 10,065,227 13,694,232
Ghana 147,748,054 487,962,646 635,710,699
Guinea 35,541,792 63,368,970 98,910,762
Guinea-Bissau 5,292,997 6,376,107 11,669,104
Kenya 276,779,832 3,916,573,442 4,193,353,274
Leso ho 16,490,768 32,258,045 48,748,812
Libe ia 5,844,176 23,536,632 29,380,808
Madagasca 32,406,543 823,766,172 856,172,715
Malawi 43,213,865 247,155,826 290,369,691
Mali 34,487,553 83,669,035 118,156,588
Mau i ania 20,029,157 54,615,001 74,644,159
Mau i ius 42,422,651 508,937,955 551,360,606
Mozambique 87,642,270 399,598,914 487,241,184
Namibia 38,511,526 240,125,016 278,636,543
Nige 37,946,278 77,876,604 115,822,882
Nige ia 1,101,341,861 694,000,964 1,795,342,825
Rwanda 70,703,728 566,789,645 637,493,373
São Tomé and P incipe 915,936 3,182,788 4,098,724
Senegal 51,278,667 156,811,935 208,090,601
Seychelles 3,639,156 44,897,125 48,536,282
Sie a Leone 41,019,502 8,528,268 49,547,771
Sou h A ica 319,967,138 6,800,921,734 7,120,888,872
Sou h Sudan 11,230,680 71,660,149 82,890,829
Swaziland 14,781,619 67,988,862 82,770,481
Tanzania 144,727,057 2,643,552,220 2,788,279,277
Togo 22,173,304 18,789,271 40,962,575
Uganda 146,899,253 1,335,323,816 1,482,223,069
Zambia 117,253,509 715,750,036 833,003,545
Zimbabwe 56,431,076 434,709,514 491,140,591
Djibou i 2,612,628 17,403,517 20,016,146
Egyp 980,134,546 4,464,420,175 5,444,554,721
Libya 1,074,816 220,959,103 222,033,918
Mo occo 400,408,902 1,157,907,945 1,558,316,848
Somalia 9,372,287 11,154,672 20,526,959
Sudan 208,893,084 339,371,278 548,264,362
Tunisia 236,694,727 514,987,003 751,681,730
TOTAL 6,261,584,816 35,363,151,009 41,624,735,824
Economies 2025,13, 241 35 o 48
6,800,921,734
4,464,420,175
3,916,573,442
2,643,552,220
2,547,771,063
1,909,014,416
1,348,397,948
1,335,323,816
1,157,907,945
823,766,172
776,068,275
715,750,036
694,000,964
650,154,625
566,789,645
514,987,003
508,937,955
487,962,646
434,709,514
399,598,914
339,371,278
247,155,826
240,125,016
220,959,103
156,811,935
154,472,902
144,332,155
101,436,938
97,813,488
94,035,774
91,972,651
83,669,035
77,876,604
71,660,149
67,988,862
63,691,418
63,368,970
54,615,001
44,897,125
32,258,045
32,037,564
25,075,786
23,536,632
21,143,503
20,684,314
18,789,271
18,465,553
17,403,517
11,154,672
10,065,227
8,528,268
6,376,107
3,182,788
1,587,020
- 2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000
Sou h A ica
Egyp
Kenya
Tanzania
Angola
Alge ia
E hiopia
Uganda
Mo occo
Madagasca
Congo, Democ a ic Republic o
Zambia
Nige ia
Bo swana
Rwanda
Tunisia
Mau i ius
Ghana
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Sudan
Malawi
Namibia
Libya
Senegal
Came oon
Co e d'I oi e
Bu undi
Bu kina Faso
Gabon
Benin
Mali
Nige
Sou h Sudan
Swaziland
Congo, Republic o
Guinea
Mau i ania
Seychelles
Leso ho
Equa o ial Guinea
E i ea
Libe ia
Chad
Como os
Togo
Cape Ve de
Djibou i
Somalia
Gambia, The
Sie a Leone
Guinea-Bissau
Sao Tome and P incipe
Cen al A ican Republic
In e na ional Dolla s (In $)
Figu e 9. To al indi ec cos sa ings om COVID-19 Ox o d–As aZeneca accina ion in A ica (in
2021 In $ o PPP).
Figu e 10 demons a es ha he o al cos sa ings expec ed om he COVID-19 As-
aZeneca accina ion a y om In $4,098,724 in São Tomé and P incipe o In $7,120,888,872
Economies 2025,13, 241 36 o 48
in Sou h A ica. Twen y-one (39%) coun ies had a o al cos sa ing o below In $100 million;
14 (26%) coun ies had be ween In $100 million and In $499 million; 9 (17%) coun ies had
be ween In $500 and In $999 million; and 10 (18%) coun ies had In $1 billion and abo e.
7,120,888,872
5,444,554,721
4,193,353,274
2,788,279,277
2,712,010,483
2,622,301,276
1,795,342,825
1,558,316,848
1,506,328,931
1,482,223,069
856,172,715
833,003,545
807,217,076
751,681,730
699,793,511
637,493,373
635,710,699
551,360,606
548,264,362
491,140,591
487,241,184
290,369,691
278,636,543
238,058,211
234,857,444
222,033,918
208,090,601
127,606,307
122,376,144
118,156,588
115,822,882
115,023,440
112,291,346
98,910,762
82,890,829
82,770,481
74,644,159
69,219,031
52,331,613
49,547,771
48,748,812
48,536,282
48,235,539
41,165,418
40,962,575
34,617,486
29,380,808
23,638,455
23,128,555
20,526,959
20,016,146
13,694,232
11,669,104
4,098,724
- 2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000
Sou h A ica
Egyp
Kenya
Tanzania
Alge ia
Angola
Nige ia
Mo occo
E hiopia
Uganda
Madagasca
Zambia
Congo, Democ a ic Republic o
Tunisia
Bo swana
Rwanda
Ghana
Mau i ius
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Malawi
Namibia
Co e d'I oi e
Came oon
Libya
Senegal
Bu kina Faso
Bu undi
Mali
Nige
Gabon
Benin
Guinea
Sou h Sudan
Swaziland
Mau i ania
Congo, Republic o
Cen al A ican Republic
Sie a Leone
Leso ho
Seychelles
Equa o ial Guinea
Chad
Togo
E i ea
Libe ia
Cape Ve de
Como os
Somalia
Djibou i
Gambia, The
Guinea-Bissau
Sao Tome and P incipe
In e na ional Dolla s (In $)
Figu e 10. To al cos sa ing expec ed om COVID-19 Ox o d–As aZeneca accine in A ica (in 2021
In $ o PPP).

Economies 2025,13, 241 37 o 48
The longe he COVID-19 pandemic pe sis s, he mo e people de elop coping mecha-
nisms ha educe dis up ions o ac i i ies o daily li ing (including wo k), p oduc i i y
losses, and hence expec ed sa ings. Addi ionally, as he COVID-19 mu a ion le el con inues
o e ol e and milde a ian s eme ge, s abili y is likely o be achie ed, whe e in ec ion does
no esul in comple e immobili y and incapaci y in hose in ec ed. All hese conside a ions
may in luence he magni udes o p ojec ed sa ings om accina ion.
3.4. Sensi i i y Analysis
Fi s , a e- un o he human capi al model wi h a discoun a e o 5% ins ead o 3%,
holding all o he a iables (dea hs, GDPPC, CEHPC, a e age li e expec ancy a bi h) con-
s an educed he con inen al: (i) To al mone a y alue o epo ed li es los o COVID-19
by In $947,265,868 (14.17%), and he a e age mone a y alue pe dea h om In $47,015
o In $40,352. (ii) To al p oduc i i y loss ( o al indi ec cos ) among 15–64-yea -olds om
In $3,173,546,125 o In $2,687,145,189, which is a In $486,400,935 (15.3%) dec ease. (iii) Re-
po ed cases o al cos ( o al di ec cos plus o al indi ec cos ) om In $7,155,473,174 o
In $6,669,072,238, which is a educ ion o In $486,400,935 (6.8%). (i ) P ojec ed o al sa ings
om COVID-19 accina ion dec eases by In $ 5,340,467,285 (12.83%).
Second, a e-es ima ion o he economic model wi h a discoun a e o 10% ins ead
o 3%, holding all o he a iables (dea hs, GDPPC, CEHPC, a e age li e expec ancy a
bi h) cons an , educed he ollowing in A ica: (i) To al mone a y alue o epo ed
li es los o COVID-19 by In $2,455,027,232 (36.73%), and he a e age mone a y alue
pe dea h om In $47,015 o In $29,746. (ii). To al p oduc i i y loss ( o al indi ec cos )
om In $3,173,546,125 o In $1,919,633,288, which is an In $1,253,912,837 (39.5%) dec ease.
(iii) Repo ed case’s o al cos ( o al di ec cos plus o al indi ec cos ) om In $7,155,473,174
o In $5,901,560,337, which is a educ ion o In $1,253,912,837 (17.5%). (i ) P ojec ed o al
sa ings om COVID-19 accina ion dec eases by In $13,814,723,812 (33.2%).
Thi d, a e-calcula ion o he model wi h he wo ld’s highes a e age li e expec ancy
(ALE) o 88 yea s (in Hong Kong) ins ead o indi idual coun y’s na ional ALE, holding all
o he a iable cons an (dea hs, GDPPC, CEHPC, discoun a e a 3%), g ew he ollowing
in A ica: (i) To al mone a y alue o epo ed li es los o COVID-19 by In $13,982,454,402
(209.2%); (ii) o al p oduc i i y loss ( o al indi ec cos ) by In $3,238,491,270 (102%), i.e.,
om In $3,173,546,125 (wi h na ional ALE) o In $6,412,037,395 (wi h wo ld highes
ALE); (iii) o al cos o epo ed cases inc eased om In $7,155,473,174 (wi h na ional
ALE) o In $10,393,964,444 (wi h he wo ld’s highes ALE), ep esen ing a g ow h o
In $3,238,491,270 (45.3%). (i ) To al cos sa ings due o accina ion om In $41,624,735,824
o In $85,097,353,802, i.e., a 104.4% g ow h.
Fou h, a e-es ima ion o he model wi h A ica’s highes a e age li e expec ancy
(ALE) o 77.5 yea s (in Alge ia) ins ead o he indi idual coun y’s na ional ALE, holding
all o he a iables cons an (dea hs, GDPPC, CEHPC, discoun a e a 3%), augmen ed
he ollowing in A ica: (i) o al mone a y alue o epo ed li es los o COVID-19 by
In $6,074,005,112 (90.9%), i.e., om In $6,684,101,196 (a na ional ALE) o In $12,758,106,309
a A ica’s highes ALE. (ii) The o al indi ec cos g ew om In $3,173,546,125 (wi h
na ional ALE) o In $5,149,685,439 (wi h A ica’s highes ALE), ep esen ing an in-
c ease o In $1,976,139,314 (62.3%). (iii) The o al cos o epo ed cases inc eased om
In $7,155,473,174 (wi h na ional ALE) o In $9,131,612,487 (wi h A ica’s highes ALE),
which is a g ow h o In $1,976,139,314 (27.6%). (i ) P ojec ed o al cos sa ings om
COVID-19 accina ion inc eased om In $41,624,735,824 o In $69,119,995,455, which is an
In $27,495,259,631 (66.1%) inc ease.
Economies 2025,13, 241 38 o 48
4. Discussion
4.1. Key Findings
4.1.1. Value o Human Li e Losses, Indi ec Cos s, and Di ec Cos s Associa ed wi h Ac ual
Repo ed COVID-19 Cases
This s udy es ima es he ollowing:
(a)
The o al discoun ed mone a y alue o human li e losses associa ed wi h 142,171
COVID-19 dea hs epo ed in A ica as o 30 June 2021 a In $6,684,101,196.
(b)
The discoun ed mone a y alue pe human li e los was In $47,015, and he mone a y
alue o human li e los pe pe son in he popula ion was In $4.88.
(c)
App oxima ely 54,210 o 15–64-yea -old pe sons epo ed dead om COVID-19 in
A ica had a o al indi ec cos o In $3,173,546,125 (i.e., a e adjus men o labo
pa icipa ion a e), and an a e age o In $58,542 pe li e los (p oduc i i y losses).
(d)
As o 30 June 2021, he 5,514,709 COVID-19 cases epo ed in A ica had an es ima ed
o al di ec cos (TDC) o In $3,981,927,049. Di iding he es ima ed TDC by he
o al numbe o COVID-19 cases epo ed in A ica yields an a e age di ec cos o
In $722.06 (US$289.53) pe case managed.
(e)
The o al cos (di ec plus indi ec ) associa ed wi h he ac ual 5,514,709 COVID-19 cases
epo ed in A ica as o 30 June 2021, was app oxima ely In $7,155,473,174. The a e age
o al cos pe COVID-19 case was In $1309 and In $5.22 pe pe son in he popula ion.
4.1.2. Sa ings in Po en ial/P ojec ed To al Cos s o COVID-19 in A ica Expec ed om
COVID-19 Vaccina ion Findings
(a)
How many people in he popula ion would be in ec ed wi h COVID-19 wi hou and
wi h accina ion? U ilizing he isk a es o in ec ion om Voysey e al. (2021), i
is p ojec ed ha app oxima ely 39,608,709 people would be in ec ed by COVID-19
wi hou accina ion (Con ol G oup) compa ed o 13,390,885 people wi h accina ion
(T ea men G oup). Thus, 100% accina ion co e age o eligible pe sons would
po en ially a e an es ima ed 26,217,824 COVID-19 in ec ions in A ica.
(b)
How many people in he popula ion would die om COVID-19 wi hou and wi h
accina ion? Applying he isk o dea h epo ed by Be nal e al. (2021), i is es ima ed ha
5,203,814 people would die wi hou accina ion, is-à- is 910,580 dea hs wi h accina ion.
(c)
How many dea hs would be a e ed by COVID-19 accina ion? An es ima ed 4,293,234
dea hs om COVID-19 would be p e en ed by accina ion, i.e., 5,203,814 minus 910,580.
(d)
How many a e ed COVID-19 dea hs would be wi hin he p oduc i e age b acke o
15–64 yea s? Applying he isk o dea h epo ed by Be nal e al. (2021), i is es ima ed
ha 1,656,615 people in he 15–64 yea s age b acke would die wi hou accina ion
compa ed o 289,880 wi h accina ion. Thus, 1,366,735 dea hs in he 15–64-yea age
b acke would be sa ed wi h COVID-19 accina ion, i.e., 1,656,615 minus 289,880.
(e)
We es ima e ha accina ing all eligible people in he popula ion would sa e he
A ican con inen app oxima ely In $41,624,735,824 (i.e., equi alen o 0.61% o
A ica’s o al GDP in 2021). Tha o al sa ing consis s o In $6.262 billion (15.0%)
in di ec cos sa ings and In $35.363 billion (85.0%) in indi ec cos sa ings.
( ) The bene i –cos a io o COVID-19 accina ion is 5.8, implying ha A ica eaps $6 in
e u n o e e y $1 spen on COVID-19 accina ion.
(g)
The a e age o al sa ing pe pe son in he popula ion is app oxima ely In $30.4.
4.2. Compa ison wi h O he S udies
4.2.1. A Compa ison o Ou Es ima es wi h Resul s om Simila S udies
The a e age discoun ed mone a y alue pe human li e in A ica, a In $47,015, was lowe
han in China, a In $356,203, by a ac o o 8, and in Spain, a In $470,798, by a ac o o 10
Economies 2025,13, 241 39 o 48
(Ki igia & Mu hu i,2020a,2020b). The di e ences could be a ibu ed o A ica’s signi ican ly
lowe GDP pe capi a compa ed o ha o China and Spain. Di e ences in demog aphic
s uc u es a e also known o ha e had a signi ican ole, acco ding o Tho becke (2022).
4.2.2. Compa ison o Es ima es om Di ec and Indi ec Cos S udies
In A ica, he e is a pauci y o esea ch in o di ec and indi ec cos s associa ed wi h
COVID-19. Ba asa e al. (2021) es ima ed he di ec uni cos o COVID-19 case managemen
o pa ien s a di e en s ages (asymp oma ic, mild/mode a e, se e e, and c i ical) in Kenya.
These au ho s’ indings we e as ollows. Fi s , managing asymp oma ic COVID-19 a home
cos s US$226.71 pe pa ien , whe eas managing i a a hospi al (and isola ion) cen e cos s
US$764.16 pe pa ien (Ba asa e al.,2021). Second, managing mild o mode a e COVID-19 a
home-based ca e cos s US$226.96, while hospi al o isola ion cen e ca e cos s US$764.41 pe
pa ien (Ba asa e al.,2021). Thi d, managing se e e COVID-19 in he gene al hospi al wa d
cos s US$1494.38 pe pa ien (Ba asa e al.,2021). Fou h, managing c i ical COVID-19 cases in
he hospi al in ensi e ca e uni cos s US$7194.07 pe pa ien (Ba asa e al.,2021).
Ismaila e al. (2021) es ima ed he cos o clinical managemen o COVID-19 in ec ion
by disease se e i y le el and ea men se ing in Ghana. The au ho s es ima ed he o al
di ec cos o home managemen COVID-19 case a US$282; ins i u ional ca e o a mild
case a US$5707; ins i u ional ca e o a mode a e case a US$9952; ins i u ional ca e o a
se e e case a US$20,305; and ins i u ional ca e o a c i ical case a US$23,382 (Ismaila e al.
(2021). The a e age o al cos pe COVID-19 case was US$11,925 (Ismaila e al.,2021). The
es ima es o uni cos s in Ghana by Ismaila e al. (2021) a e highe han hose o Ba asa e al.
(2021) in Kenya because o he o me calcula ed cos s acco ding o he Minis y o Heal h’s
COVID-19 clinical managemen p o ocol.
Ou s udy es ima ed ha he a e age di ec cos pe case managed is In $722.06
(US$289.53), which is oughly compa able o Ba asa e al.’s (2021) uni cos o US$226 pe
asymp oma ic and mildly o mode a ely ill COVID-19 pa ien managed using home-based
ca e. Howe e , ou es ima ed di ec cos pe COVID-19 case-managed o US$289.53 is 3-
old, 3- old, 5- old, and 25- old lowe han Ba asa e al.’s (2021) uni cos pe asymp oma ic,
mild- o-mode a e, se e e, and c i ical COVID-19 disease case managed a hospi al/isola ion
cen e , hospi al gene al inpa ien wa d, and hospi al in ensi e ca e uni , espec i ely.
Simila ly, whe eas ou es ima ed di ec cos pe COVID-19 case o US$289.53 is com-
pa able o Ismaila e al.’s (2021) o al di ec cos o home managemen pe COVID-19 case
o US$282, i is 41- old lowe han hei a e age o al di ec cos pe COVID-19 case o
US$11,925. Compa ison wi h he a e age o al di ec cos s om Ghana and Kenya implies
ha ou inding may be a g oss unde es ima e and, hus, should be iewed as a lowe limi .
Limi a ions o he S udy
Fi s , like o he HCA s udies, we used GDP pe capi a o mone a ily alue human li e
losses associa ed wi h he COVID-19 pandemic in A ica. GDP pe capi a su e s se e al
limi a ions: (a) does no cap u e home non-ma ke ed p oduc ion; (b) does no e lec
ex an inequali ies in wellbeing, income, and weal h; (c) omi s nega i e ex e nali ies o
economic p oduc ion ac i i ies, e.g., en i onmen al pollu ion, global wa ming, soil e osion,
de o es a ion, in e -communi y igh s o e dwindling wa e esou ces (especially in a id
and semi-a id a eas), deple ion o na u al esou ces (and hence accompanying long- e m
wellbeing sus ainabili y consequences); (d) no an accu a e measu e o socie al happiness
and quali y o li e (S igli z e al.,2010). Thus, ou calcula ion yields he lowe bound o he
mone a y alue o a li e los o COVID-19.
Second, he s anda d HCA has some pe cei ed sho comings. One, Lande eld and
Seskin (1982) posi ha HCA “... is implici ly based upon he maximiza ion o socie y’s
Economies 2025,13, 241 40 o 48
p esen and u u e p oduc ion” (p. 556). Thus, he app oach assumes ha he only eason
socie y in es s, o example, in p e en ing p ema u e dea hs om COVID-19 is o maximize
economic p oduc ion (o GDP). Howe e , as Mooney (1977) a gues, he e a e o he easons,
e.g., human li e (o heal h) has in insic alue ( alued o i s own sake), socie y alues
he li e (o heal h) o i s membe s (p oduc i e o no ), being ali e enables indi iduals o
enjoy leisu e. Two, s anda d HCA a aches ze o alue o people wi hou income, e.g.,
e i ed, child en below legal wo king age, se e ely handicapped, and homemake s. Th ee,
acco ding o Lande eld and Seskin (1982) applica ion o HCA en ails “
. . .
choice o an
app op ia e social discoun a e o con e u u e ea nings in o p esen alues”, which is
con en ious (Clax on e al.,2011;Odum e al.,2020).
Thi d, he COVID-19 pandemic may ha e had b oad ad e se economic e ec s on labo
ma ke s, co po a e in es men , and o he aspec s o he mac oeconomy (Campello e al.,
2024;Eichenbaum e al.,2021). The economic policies (e.g., cash in usions) implemen ed by
na ional go e nmen s may ha e con ibu ed pa ly o mi iga ing economic losses (Co es
e al.,2022) and s emming he bu den o non- a al disabili y and a ali ies associa ed wi h
he pandemic. I was beyond he scope o he cu en s udy o es ima e and inco po a e
addi ional cos s ela ed o economic policy in e en ions. The magni ude o addi ional
cos s would depend on he labo ma ke e ec s and labo alloca ion e ec s.
Conce ning labo ma ke e ec s, he p ema u e dea hs om COVID-19 na u ally
educe he labo supply. In an en i onmen o educed labo demand due o pandemic
unce ain y (Campello e al.,2024), his esul s in lowe ou pu , e enues, and co po a e
in es men . Howe e , when iscal and mone a y policies suppo agg ega e demand, i
may lead o ele a ed in la ion, as e idenced by he ecen 2021 wa e (Go inda ajan e al.,
2022). Ele a ed in la ion is a di ec economic cos , inso a as i educes indi iduals’ eal
income. In his case, he cos is di ec ly a ibu ed o li e losses, esul ing in a misma ch
be ween agg ega e labo supply and agg ega e demand.
Rega ding labo alloca ion e ec s, he pandemic did no a ec e e y A ican coun y
equally; hus, i s impac on labo supply is inhe en ly he e ogeneous. In heo y, he po en ial
ad e se e ec s o COVID-19 on labo supply could be mi iga ed by inc eased labo mobili y,
which would sugges mig a o y pa e ns om coun ies (o local geog aphical egions)
wi h ela i ely low labo sho ages o hose wi h ela i ely high labo sho ages. Howe e ,
he COVID-19- ela ed es ic ions, compounded by a g owing wa e o an i-immig a ion
sen imen , may ha e p e en ed he ideal labo eloca ion (Funke e al.,2023).
Fou h, ou s udy u ilized he numbe o COVID-19 cases and dea hs epo ed by
indi idual A ican coun ies in es ima ing he discoun ed mone a y alue o human li e
losses associa ed wi h COVID-19 (Sec ion 3.1) and he economic cos o COVID-19 in A ica
(Sec ion 3.2). These s a is ics a e likely o be g ossly unde es ima ed due o he inadequacy
o na ional heal h in o ma ion sys ems (WHO/AFRO,2012); 6% comple eness o cause-o -
dea h p ima y da a in he WHO A ican Region (compa ed o 97% in he Eu opean Region
and 94% in he Region o he Ame icas) (WHO,2019b); and a 52% gap in In e na ional
Heal h Regula ions co e capaci ies (WHO,2020,2021c).
Msembu i e al. (2023) es ima ed ha be ween Janua y 2020 and Decembe 2021, he
o al COVID-19 dea h oll in he A ican Region was eigh - old highe han he o icially e-
po ed numbe o COVID-19- ela ed dea hs. Thus, by elying on he cumula i e numbe o
COVID-19- ela ed dea hs epo ed by na ional go e nmen s, we may ha e unde es ima ed
he o al mone a y alue o human li e losses (in Sec ion 3.1) and he associa ed indi ec
cos s (in Sec ion 3.1) by almos eigh - old. We chose o use he o icial na ional COVID-19-
ela ed dea hs epo ed by indi idual WHO Membe S a es, a he han he WHO excess
mo ali y es ima es published by Msembu i e al., o inc ease he likelihood o up ake o
he s udy’s esul s in public heal h ad ocacy by Minis ies o Heal h on he con inen .
Economies 2025,13, 241 47 o 48
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