Hung, Jason
A icle — Accep ed Manusc ip (Pos p in )
AI Expo and Digi al Silk Road: A Compa a i e Analysis o
China’s In luences on Digi al Economies and Geopoli ics
ac oss Sou heas Asia
F on ie s in Poli ical Science
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Hung, Jason (2025) : AI Expo and Digi al Silk Road: A Compa a i e Analysis o
China’s In luences on Digi al Economies and Geopoli ics ac oss Sou heas Asia, F on ie s in Poli ical
Science, ISSN 2673-3145, F on ie s Media, Lausanne,
h ps://www. on ie sin.o g/jou nals/poli ical-science/a icles/10.3389/ pos.2025.1685231/
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1
AI Expo and Digi al Silk Road: A Compa a i e Analysis o China’s In luences on Digi al
1
Economies and Geopoli ics ac oss Sou heas Asia
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4
Jason Hung1
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1Independen esea che , o me ly he Uni e si y o Camb idge, UK
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Email: [email protected]
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Abs ac
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The e is a lack o o iginal esea ch in es iga ing he ela ionships be ween China’s a i icial
14
in elligence (AI) expo s and hei possible impac s on s eng hening Digi al Silk Road (DSR) co-15
ope a ion. This pape i s s udies he dis ibu ion o China’s AI expo p ojec s o Sou heas 16
Asian coun ies (2006–2017) and hen examines whe he la ge Sou heas Asian AI impo e s
17
we e mo e ac i e DSR pa ne s (2018–2020). The analysis, d awing on da a om he China’s AI18
Expo s Da abase (CAIED), he IISS China Connec s, and he Wo ld Bank Open Da a , employs
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a obus panel da a me hodology inco po a ing lagged explana o y a iables and clus e ed20
s anda d e o s o mi iga e issues o he e oscedas ici y and au o-co ela ion. Findings sugges 21
ha Sou heas Asian coun ies impo ing AI echnologies om China be ween 2006 and 2017
22
had no been s a is ically mo e DSR ac i e be ween 2018 and 2020. Ins ead, he pape inds a23
posi i e impac ha coun y-le el economic eedom is a highly signi ican con ibu ing ac o o
24
being an ac i e DSR pa ne . This s udy enhances anspa ency in he dynamics o China’s25
digi al geopoli ics by highligh ing economic compe i i eness as he p ima y d i e o DSR
26
pa ne ships, a he han p io AI impo his o y.27
28
Keywo ds
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Bel -and-Road Ini ia i e; Digi al Silk Road Ini ia i e; China; digi al economy; digi al geopoli ics
31
32
O e iew33
34
China's Bel and Road Ini ia i e (BRI), launched in 2013, aims o os e de elopmen and35
in es men pa ne ships ac oss Asia, Eu ope, A ica, Oceania, and La in Ame ica. This global
36
ini ia i e has acili a ed China’s expansion o economic and poli ical in luence (McB ide e al.,37
2023). In Sou heas Asia, China has eme ged as a dominan in es o , signing in as uc u e
38
deals wo h billions annually (Dayan & S anhope, 2024). A co e dimension o China o build39
global connec i i y is h ough ade. China’s supply chain connec i i y has isen ac oss BRI40
egions, wi h Sou heas Asian coun ies (bo h iche and poo e economies) emaining he mos
41
connec ed (LSE Ideas, 2018). Wi hin he egion, Singapo e, Vie nam, Thailand, Malaysia,42
Cambodia, and Myanma a e anked among he wo ld’s mos connec ed economies o China
43
ia ade (LSE Ideas, 2018).44
45
Since BRI pa ne ships be ween he wo pa ies a e ex ensi ely esea ched and add essed in
46
exis ing schola ship, his pape will ins ead examine he Digi al Silk Road (DSR) ela ionships47
be ween China and Sou heas Asia. The DSR, i s o icially men ioned in China’s
13 h Fi e-
48
Yea Plan (2016-20)
, has become a key pilla o he BRI. In ecen yea s, gi en he in ensi ied
49
Uni ed S a es-China echnological and a i icial in elligence (AI) i al y, expanding he DSR’s50
in luence on Sou heas Asian ma ke s has become c ucial o China (Zheng, 2024). China's
51
DSR p io i isa ion as a na ional s a egy is shaped by wo ac o s. The push ac o is he apid52
(This e sion is accep ed o publica ion a F on ie s in Poli ical Science.)
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g ow h o China’s digi al economy in ecen yea s. The pull ac o is China’s pe cep ion o he
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digi al gap in many de eloping coun ies, including Sou heas Asian coun ies, which es ic s
54
hei digi al economy g ow h (Zheng, 2024). Since he 2008 global inancial c isis, China has55
ac i ely in ensi ied i s e o s o build i s echnological dominance, especially in he de elopmen
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and applica ion o AI echnology (Chung, 2023).57
58
Al hough he popula isa ion o AI echnology has su ged since he launch o Cha GPT in 2022,
59
China's AI Expo s Da abase (CAIED) indica es ha China has s a egically been deli e ing AI60
expo p ojec s globally since decades ago. Exis ing schola ship co e s he analysis o China’s
61
DSR pa ne ships wi h Sou heas Asian coun ies. Howe e , he e is a lack, i no an absence,62
o o iginal esea ch in es iga ing whe he China’s global s a egy o AI expo s has impac ed
63
DSR pa ne ships ac oss Sou heas Asia. I no , i is schola ly impo an o iden i y he key64
d i e (s) ha ha e impac ed DSR pa ne ships wi h Sou heas Asian coun ies. This pape will65
assess whe he la ge AI impo e s om China a e mo e ac i e DSR playe s. I no , i will
66
explo e wha ac o (s) de e mine how ac i e Sou heas Asian coun ies a e as DSR pa ne s.67
Such an in es iga ion helps en ich he global dialogue and enhance anspa ency in he
68
dynamics o China’s AI expo s and DSR coope a ion.69
70
Li e a u e Re iew
71
72
Despi e he ‘deb ap’ conspi acy c i icisms (McB ide e al., 2023), many Sou heas Asian
73
coun ies, such as Indonesia and Thailand, ha e welcomed BRI, including DSR, pa ne ship74
oppo uni ies (Busba a e al., 2023; Yu, 2017). F om an economic s andpoin , Chinese
75
in es men s ha e he po en ial o bols e Sou heas Asia’s economic g ow h and egional76
connec i i y. Howe e , he e ha e been conce ns ac oss Sou heas Asia ha coun ies hea ily77
dependen on Chinese in es men may ace long- e m isks o hei own economies due o
78
ising deb s and o hei socie ies owing o geopoli ical in e en ions (Busba a e al., 2023).79
Addi ionally, acial ensions and sa e y issues ha e compounded he c i icisms agains
80
Sou heas Asian go e nmen s ha a e o e ly economically dependen on China (Busba a e al.,81
2023; Dayan & S anhope, 2024). The e o e, his pape would like o s udy oday’s dynamics o 82
DSR pa ne ships be ween China and Sou heas Asian coun ies, in o de o p esen which
83
Sou heas Asian coun ies a e mo e o less willing o o m digi al ade ies wi h China.84
85
Exis ing schola ship sugges s ha he Philippines is a Sou heas Asian coun y who main ains86
nega i e BRI ela ionships wi h China, as o w i ing his pape . Du ing he adminis a ion o
87
P esiden Rod igo Du e e, he Philippines was mo e willing o o m BRI coope a ion wi h China.88
Howe e , when P esiden Bongbong Ma cos ook o ice in 2022, se e al ea ly-s age89
in as uc u e de elopmen p ojec s unded by China we e cancelled (Busba a e al., 2023).
90
Philippine eli e and public sen imen ha e ha dened owa ds he Chinese Go e nmen in ecen 91
yea s. O he Sou heas Asian coun ies a e mo e ambiguous, o e en di ided, in hei s ance
92
owa ds he Chinese Go e nmen . Sou heas Asian eli es om coun ies such as Singapo e and93
Indonesia p e e main aining obus economic and secu i y ies wi h majo in e na ional playe s94
o o se China’s dominance in he egion (Feigenbaum e al., 2024). As his pape ocuses on
95
e alua ing DSR ins ead o BRI ela ionships be ween China and Sou heas Asia, i would be96
in e es ing o in es iga e whe he he Philippines has cu DSR ies wi h China. Also, i would be
97
in e es ing o unde s and he a i udes o o he leading egional playe s, such as Singapo e and98
Indonesia, ega ding he o ma ion o DSR pa ne ships wi h China.
99
100
The pandemic boos ed digi al economies wo ldwide, acili a ing Sou heas Asia o o e 101
in es men oppo uni ies in e-comme ce logis ics and digi al inancial se ices o ci cum en 102
es ic ions on pe sonal mobili y and in-pe son mee ings be ween 2020 and ea ly 2023. He e,
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(This e sion is accep ed o publica ion a F on ie s in Poli ical Science.)
3
egionally ad anced economies such as Singapo e, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia ha e
104
de eloped mo e compe i i e echnological adop ion en i onmen s (Chung, 2023). In such
105
ci cums ances, Sou heas Asian coun ies will con inue o build and expand hei digi al106
economies in he long e m. In es iga ing China-Sou heas Asia ela ions h ough DSR
107
pa ne ships is a imely and academically impo an opic. Unde s anding how ac i e a108
Sou heas Asian coun y is as a DSR playe indica es i s digi al capaci y, connec i i y, and109
compe i i eness. Such digi al compe ence, o some deg ee, e lec s he coun y’s economic
110
s eng h. This pape will discuss he nuances in digi al geopoli ics and economics o add111
anspa ency o he discou se on he s a egic plans o China’s echnological and AI in es men .
112
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Me hodology
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As highligh ed, his pape aims o s udy whe he la ge Sou heas Asian AI impo e s om China116
a e mo e ac i e playe s in he DSR. I no , his pape aims o explo e he majo ac o (s) ha
117
de e mine how ac i e Sou heas Asian coun ies a e as DSR pa ne s. To sa is y hese esea ch118
aims, I need access o da abases co e ing de ails abou China’s AI expo s and DSR p ojec s. I
119
he e o e analyse seconda y da a om mul iple da abases: he China’s AI Expo s Da abase120
(CAIED) and he IISS China Connec s. I u he collec da a om he Wo ld Bank Open Da a.121
122
The CAIED da abase is un by he RAND Co po a ion, while he IISS China Connec s da abase123
is ope a ed by he In e na ional Ins i u e o S a egic S udies. The CAIED acks Chinese
124
go e nmen -suppo ed de elopmen inance p ojec s ha u ilised o enabled AI echnology in125
he Global Sou h be ween 2000 and 2017. Using he la es da a mining ools, he CAIED
126
iden i ied a o al o 155 AI expo p ojec s om China. The CAIED eco ds all AI o AI enabling127
p ojec s impo ed ac oss he globe om China, be ween 2000 and 2017. Howe e , acco ding o128
he CAIED’s acked da a, Chinese go e nmen -suppo ed de elopmen inance p ojec s ha
129
u ilised o enabled AI echnology in Sou heas Asia had been implemen ed be ween 2006 and130
2017. He e AI p ojec s included all echnology- acili a ed ades ha equi ed AI p ocessing o
131
we e AI-powe ed. AI-enabling p ojec s we e, howe e , much b oade . They e e ed o p ojec s132
whe e AI ac ed as a ca alys o ans o m di e en sec o s, such as building and deli e ing133
echnological se ices (e.g. se ing up CCTV ne wo k) o c ea e a con inuous s eam o isual
134
da a essen ial o aining AI algo i hms—laying he g oundwo k o u u e AI in eg a ion.135
136
Al e na i ely, he IISS China Connec s da abase is a i ual in e ac i e ool ha isualises137
independen ly esea ched and e i ied da ase s on China’s BRI and DSR p ojec s planned,
138
implemen ed, o comple ed be ween 2000 and 2020/2021 (2021 o BRI p ojec s and 2020 o 139
DSR p ojec s). I will use he CAIED o summa ise how many AI p ojec s had been impo ed by140
each Sou heas Asian coun y om China un il 2017. In doing so, I can analyse how ac i e each
141
Sou heas Asian coun y had been as an AI impo e om China. Then, I will use he IISS China142
Connec s o summa ise how many DSR p ojec s had been planned, implemen ed, o comple ed
143
be ween 2018 and 2020 by each Sou heas Asian coun y. Th ough his app oach, I am able o144
make da a-d i en e alua ion on whe he Sou heas Asian coun ies impo ing mo e AI145
echnologies om China un il 2017 had o med igh e DSR pa ne ships wi h China be ween
146
2018 and 2020.147
148
Mo eo e , since his pape ocuses on examining he DSR ela ionships be ween China and149
Sou heas Asia, i is schola ly ele an o e alua e he digi al capaci y o all Sou heas Asian
150
coun ies. The b oade digi al capaci y a Sou heas Asian coun y has, he be e digi al adop ion
151
en i onmen ha coun y can o e and possibly he mo e DSR p ojec s he coun y can o m.152
He e, I measu e digi al capaci y based on he Wo ld Bank Open Da a o (1) mobile cellula 153
subsc ip ions (pe 100 people) and (2) indi iduals using he In e ne (% o he popula ion) using
154
(This e sion is accep ed o publica ion a F on ie s in Poli ical Science.)
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2018-2020 da a. I pa ly decide o measu e digi al connec i i y by he p oxy o mobile cellula
155
subsc ip ions (pe 100 people) because mobile phones ins ead o landline phones and
156
compu e s ha e become mo e impo an as daily necessi ies. Measu ing mobile cellula 157
subsc ip ions in any gi en coun y pe 100 people is a p e e able me hodological design
158
because Sou heas Asian coun ies ha e d as ic di e ences in popula ion sizes, so measu ing159
and compa ing he ac ual annual numbe s o mobile cellula subsc ip ions be ween coun ies is160
no in o ma i e and indica i e.
161
162
I is equally impo an o e alua e he economic capaci y o all Sou heas Asian coun ies. The
163
b oade economic capaci y a Sou heas Asian coun y has, he mo e a ou able a digi al164
adop ion en i onmen i can o e , and he close digi al ade ies i can o m. He e, I measu e
165
economic capaci y based on Sou heas Asia’s economic compe i i eness, assessed by (3) he166
eal GDP pe capi a (cons an 2015 US$) om he Wo ld Bank Open Da a and (4) he Index o 167
Economic F eedom sco es using 2018-2020 da a. I was conside ing whe he I should choose
168
he IMD Wo ld Compe i i eness Ranking sco es, Global Inno a ion Index sco es o Index o 169
Economic F eedom sco es as one o he p oxies o economic compe i i eness. Ini ially, I
170
belie e he Global Inno a ion Index, which measu es coun ies’ inno a i e capabili y in171
knowledge, echnology and c ea i e ou pu s would be ideal o help cap u e economic capaci y.172
Howe e , he Global Inno a ion Index has missing da a o Laos and Myanma in he 2018 and
173
2019 da a. Al e na i ely, while he IMD Wo ld Compe i i eness Ranking measu es how174
compe i i e an economy is based on go e nmen e iciency, business e iciency, and
175
in as uc u e, I ind his me ic calcula es bo h ins i u ional and economic capaci y o any gi en176
coun y which may ail o solely e lec coun y-le el economic compe i i eness. The e o e, I
177
decide o use he Index o Economic F eedom, which measu es policy en i onmen o business178
such as ade eedom and iscal heal h o any coun y. Compa ed o he IMD Wo ld179
Compe i i eness Ranking, he Index o Economic F eedom me ic is pa ially bu ela i ely less
180
elian on ins i u ional aspec s o measu e economic compe i i eness. The e o e, in his181
esea ch pape , I use bo h eal GDP pe capi a (cons an 2015 US$) and he Index o Economic
182
F eedom sco es as p oxies o measu e Sou heas Asian coun ies’ economic compe i i eness.183
184
In ime-se ies o panel da a, i he a iables a e non-s a iona y (i.e. con ain ends), eg essions
185
can some imes gi e alse ela ionships known as spu ious eg essions. Howe e , since my186
panel da a is sho (T=3; yea s: 2018, 2019, 2020), I canno meaning ully un obus panel uni
187
oo es s because hese me hods equi e longe ime spans. Howe e , any po en ial spu ious188
eg ession conce ns should be minimised gi en my me hodological design. Fi s , I build
189
addi ional obus ness check by e- unning eg essions using lagged explana o y alues and190
clus e ed s anda d e o s a he coun y le el (in Table 6) o show ha my empi ical esul s a e191
no an a i ac o au oco ela ion. Au oco ela ion ells us ha , in panel o ime-se ies da a,
192
alues oday a e o en co ela ed wi h alues yes e day. The e o e, in Table 6, I eg ess DSR193
p ojec s in 2019 and 2020 on digi al connec i i y and economic compe i i eness p oxies using
194
2018 and 2019 da a espec i ely. Such an app oach helps a oid unning spu ious eg essions195
wi h alse signi icance. Second, and mo e impo an ly, I s a egically use p oxies o digi al196
connec i i y and economic compe i i eness ha a e plausibly s a iona y (o nea ly s a iona y).
197
Fo example, I use eal GDP pe capi a (cons an 2015 US$) which is less ending han198
agg ega e na ional GDP. Also, I use mobile cellula subsc ip ions (pe 100 people) ins ead o
199
he nominal o al subsc ip ions as an independen a iable, use indi iduals using he In e ne (%200
o popula ion), and use index sco es om he Index o Economic F eedom. These mean my
201
independen a iables a e ei he in pe cen ages and index, which a e a less p oblema ic o
202
s a iona i y.203
204
(This e sion is accep ed o publica ion a F on ie s in Poli ical Science.)
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I is acknowledged ha he ixed-e ec s model, which elies only on wi hin-coun y a ia ion,
205
inhe en ly canno es ima e he coe icien o he ime-in a ian AI_expo i a iable. While
206
ad anced echniques like he be ween es ima o o a wo-s age p ocess could po en ially207
eco e his es ima e, he andom-e ec s model was p e e ed o bo h he main analysis (Table
208
5) and he obus ness check (Table 6). This is because he andom-e ec s model allows o he209
simul aneous es ima ion o all ime- a ian and ime-in a ian a iables, di ec ly add essing he210
co e esea ch ques ion o his pape ega ding he in luence o AI_expo ion DSR ac i i y.
211
212
Mo eo e , as men ioned, he IISS China Connec s da abase sha es all BRI and DSR p ojec s
213
planned, implemen ed, o comple ed be ween 2000 and 2020/2021. Howe e , he BRI and DSR214
we e in oduced in 2013 and 2015 espec i ely. Some may ques ion why he IISS China
215
Connec s da abase con ains de ails abou BRI and DSR p ojec s om he 2000s while hese216
ini ia i es we e launched in he 2010s. I is no ewo hy ha he IISS China Connec s da abase217
consis s o o icially labelled BRI and DSR p ojec s. These a e in as uc u e and digi al
218
connec i i y p ojec s ha he Chinese Go e nmen , minis e ial agencies, o s a e media ha e219
ecognised as alling unde he b oade BRI and DSR en e p ises launched in 2013 and 2015
220
espec i ely. Ye , he da abase u he includes in as uc u e p ojec s ha we e no o icially221
labelled as pa o he BRI o DSR. These include p ojec s ini ia ed in he 2000s o ea ly 2010s222
ha did no ecei e explici endo semen om he Chinese Go e nmen . These a e known as
223
“BRI-like” o “DSR-like” p ojec s and a e included in he IISS China Connec s da abase (IISS224
China Connec s, n.d.).
225
226
Findings
227
228
Acco ding o he CAIED, 155 China’s AI-expo p ojec s we e iden i ied in 64 coun ies,229
classi ied as ei he AI applica ions o AI in as uc u e (i.e., c i ical in as uc u e o AI
230
applica ions, o as a ool ha enabled AI applica ions o be adap ed in he u u e) (Bouey e al.,231
2023). Upon di ec ly sea ching o coun y epo s on he CAIED, as Table 1 summa ises, h ee
232
Sou heas Asian coun ies ecei ed Chinese go e nmen -suppo ed de elopmen inance233
p ojec s ha u ilised o enabled AI echnology be ween 2006 and 2017. These coun ies we e234
Cambodia, Indonesia, and Laos. In Cambodia, in 2014, he Chinese Go e nmen g an ed RMB
235
20 million (i.e., US$2.76 million) o Cambodia’s Minis y o Public Secu i y o a closed-ci cui 236
ele ision (CCTV) Su eillance P ojec . Also, in 2015, China deli e ed 200 ul asound medical
237
equipmen uni s o he Cambodian Go e nmen .238
239
In Indonesia, in 2011, he Chinese Go e nmen p o ided a US$5.3 million g an o he240
Es ablishmen and Ope a ion o he Indonesia Ma i ime Su eillance Sa elli e Sys em. In 2014,241
China signed an ag eemen o send emo e sensing da a o Indonesian emo e sensing sa elli e
242
g ound s a ions o help he coun y upda e he s a ions and imp o e i s ma i ime law243
en o cemen and disas e p e en ion mi iga ion. In 2015, in pa ne ship wi h China's Huawei,
244
Indonesia e ealed he ‘Sa e Ci y’ model si e in Bandung. The model si e includes moni o ing245
poin s, ansmission ne wo ks, da a pla o ms, esou ce managemen sys ems, b oadband246
clus e s, and eme gency command cen es.
247
248
In Laos, in 2006, he China-Laos p e e en ial loan amewo k ag eemen o Phase 1 o he
249
Na ional E-Go e nmen P ojec was signed. In he ollowing yea , China Eximbank and he Lao250
Go e nmen signed an RMB 280 million (i.e., US$38.7 million) go e nmen concessional loan
251
ag eemen o Phase 1 o he Na ional E-Go e nmen P ojec . In 2012, Huawei dona ed a cloud
252
compu ing labo a o y o he Na ional Uni e si y o Laos in Vien iane. Du ing he same dona ion253
ce emony, China also dona ed an elec ic ca o he uni e si y. Then, in 2017, he Chinese254
(This e sion is accep ed o publica ion a F on ie s in Poli ical Science.)
6
Go e nmen signed he Na ional Seismic Moni o ing Ne wo k P ojec and Ea hquake Da a
255
Cen e P ojec .
256
257
Table 1: AI Impo Coun ies in Sou heas Asia
258
(
Had he coun ies been he bene icia ies o Chinese Go e nmen -suppo ed de elopmen
259
inance p ojec s ha u ilised o enabled AI echnology be ween 2006 and 2017?
)260
Coun ies:
AI P ojec s/Desc ip ions
Cambodia
Dona ion o Ul asound Medical Equipmen
On June 15, 2015, China deli e ed 200 ul asound medical equipmen
o he Cambodian Go e nmen .
CCTV Su eillance P ojec
On Augus 13, 2014, he Chinese Go e nmen g an ed RMB 20 million
o Cambodia's Minis y o Public Secu i y o a CCTV Su eillance
P ojec .
Indonesia
Sa e Ci y Model Si e P ojec
Pa ne ed wi h China's Huawei, Indonesia's i s ‘Sa e Ci y’ model si e
was deployed in he main enue and su ounding a eas o he e en .
The model si e includes moni o ing poin s, ansmission ne wo ks,
da a pla o ms, esou ce managemen sys ems, b oadband clus e s,
and eme gency command cen es. On Ap il 11, 2015, he ‘Sa e Ci y’
model si e in Bandung was un eiled.
Ma i ime Su eillance Sa elli e Sys em P ojec
In 2011, he Chinese Go e nmen p o ided a US$5.3 million g an o
he Es ablishmen and Ope a ion o he Indonesia Ma i ime
Su eillance Sa elli e Sys em.
Remo e Sensing Da a o Ma i ime Secu i y P ojec
On 6 Oc obe 2014, China signed an ag eemen o send emo e
sensing da a o Indonesia emo e sensing sa elli e g ound s a ions o
help he coun y upda e he s a ions and imp o e i s ma i ime law
en o cemen and disas e p e en ion mi iga ion.
Laos
Dona ion o Cloud Compu ing Labo a o y
On No embe 30, 2012, Huawei dona ed a cloud compu ing
labo a o y o he Na ional Uni e si y o Laos in Vien iane. Du ing he
same dona ion ce emony, China also dona ed an elec ic ca o he
uni e si y.
Phase 1 o Na ional E-Go e nmen P ojec
On No embe 20, 2006, he Chinese Go e nmen and Lao
Go e nmen signed a p e e en ial loan amewo k ag eemen o
(This e sion is accep ed o publica ion a F on ie s in Poli ical Science.)
7
Phase 1 o he Na ional E-Go e nmen P ojec . Then, in 2007, China
Eximbank and he Lao Go e nmen signed an RMB 280 million
go e nmen concessional loan ag eemen o Phase 1 o he Na ional
E-Go e nmen P ojec .
On Sep embe 18, 2008, he Chinese Go e nmen and Lao
Go e nmen signed an RMB 546 million p e e en ial loan amewo k
ag eemen o Phase 2 o he Na ional E-Go e nmen P ojec .
Howe e , i is unclea i and when an ac ual loan ag eemen o Phase
2 was inalised. This issue me i s u he in es iga ion.
Na ional Seismic Moni o ing Ne wo k P ojec and Ea hquake
Da a Cen e P ojec
On Aug 11, 2017, he Chinese Go e nmen signed he Na ional
Seismic Moni o ing Ne wo k P ojec and Ea hquake Da a Cen e
P ojec . A e he p ojec is comple ed, Laos will ha e he abili y o
epo ea hquakes o magni ude 3.0 o abo e in mos pa s o he
coun y, e ec i ely imp o e he seismic moni o ing capaci y o Laos,
imp o e he le el o public se ice o he Lao Go e nmen , and
p o ide a s ong gua an ee o Laos' economic and social
de elopmen .
Sou ce: RAND261
262
I ex ac ele an da a om he CAIED, IISS China Connec s and Wo ld Bank Open Da a263
da abases and om he Index o Economic F eedom anking and anspo hem in o a newly
264
c ea ed panel da ase on STATA 18.2. The panel da ase con ains obse a ions om he same265
uni s (i.e. coun ies) o e mul iple ime pe iods (i.e. yea s). Table 2 shows he desc ip ion o
266
a iable de ini ions and sou ces. He e I aim o build linea eg ession models (wi hou and wi h267
using lagged explana o y a iables) o panel da a o examine he a e age e ec o (1) AI expo 268
om China, (2) mobile cellula subsc ip ions (pe 100 people) and (3) indi iduals using he
269
In e ne (% o he popula ion), (4) eal GDP pe capi a (cons an 2015 US$), (5) he Index o 270
Economic F eedom sco es on DSR ac i i ies ac oss all in ol ed Sou heas Asian coun ies.
271
Appendix 1 lis s ou all he ele an a iables o he panel da ase . We can see ha coun y and272
AI expo om China a e ime-in a ian a iables. He e coun y e e s o he 10 Sou heas Asian273
coun ies. AI expo om China (i.e. he a iable
AI_expo
i) means whe he each coun y had
274
any AI impo ade om China be ween 2006 and 2017 (1 = yes; 0 = no). The a iable
DSR
i,
275
e e s o he numbe o planned, implemen ed, o comple ed DSR p ojec s a Sou heas Asian
276
coun y unde ook in any gi en yea , be ween 2018 and 2020. The a iables
mobile
i,
, In e ne
i,
,
277
eal_GDP_pe _capi a
i, and
IEF
i, e e o mobile cellula subsc ip ions (pe 100 people),
278
indi iduals using he In e ne (% o he popula ion), eal GDP pe capi a (cons an 2015 US$)279
and he Index o Economic F eedom sco es espec i ely.280
281
Table 2: Desc ip ion o Va iable De ini ions and Sou ces282
Va iable
Desc ip ion
Sou ce
Coun yi
Sou heas Asian coun y name (G oup
Iden i ie )
By au ho
Yea
Yea o da a collec ion (Time Iden i ie )
By au ho
DSRi,
How many DSR p ojec s we e planned,
IISS China Connec s
(This e sion is accep ed o publica ion a F on ie s in Poli ical Science.)
8
implemen ed, o comple ed by any gi en
Sou heas Asian coun y in any gi en yea ?
(Dependen Va iable)
AI_expo i
How many AI o AI-enabling p ojec s we e
impo ed om China by any gi en Sou heas
Asian coun y in any gi en yea ? (Time-
In a ian Explana o y Va iable)
CAIED
mobilei,
Wha was he numbe o mobile cellula
subsc ip ions (pe 100 people) in any gi en
Sou heas Asian coun y in any gi en yea ?
Wo ld Bank Open Da a
In e ne i,
How many indi iduals we e using he
In e ne (as % o popula ion) in any gi en
Sou heas Asian coun y in any gi en yea ?
Wo ld Bank Open Da a
eal_GDP_pe _capi ai,
Wha was he eal GDP pe capi a (cons an
2015 US$) in any gi en Sou heas Asian
coun y in any gi en yea ?
Wo ld Bank Open Da a
IEFi,
Wha was he Index o Economic F eedom
sco e in any gi en Sou heas Asian coun y
in any gi en yea ?
Index o Economic
F eedom
283
Be o e building linea eg ession models o panel da a, I would need o examine whe he he e284
is any collinea i y issue among he independen a iables. Table 3 shows he a iance in la ion285
ac o (VIF) alues o all independen a iables ha a e used o building linea eg ession
286
models o panel da a. The VIF alues in he panel da ase indica e ha he e is no signi ican 287
mul icollinea i y among he independen a iables, as all alues a e be ween 1 and 5. The VIF
288
alue ells us how much he a iance o an es ima ed eg ession coe icien is in la ed due o i s289
linea ela ionship wi h he o he independen a iables. A VIF alue o 1 means he e is no290
co ela ion be ween ha a iable and he o he s; and a VIF alue ha is lowe han 5 poses no
291
conce n.292
293
Table 3: Va iance In la ion Fac o (VIF)294
Va iable
VIF
1/VIF
AI_expo i
2.11
0.47
mobilei,
1.99
0.50
In e ne i,
2.35
0.43
eal_GDP_pe _capi ai,
3.68
0.27
IEFi,
3.62
0.28
Mean VIF
2.75
295
Once I un he VIF es , he e is no meaning ul need o conduc he Spea man ank co ela ions.296
Howe e , I decide o de elop and p esen Table 4 as an addi ional sou ce ha indica es no297
conce ning mul icolliea ni y issue is de ec ed. Table 4 shows ha co ela ions be ween AI expo
298
om China and all o he independen a iables ha a e used o eg ession analysis (in Tables299
(This e sion is accep ed o publica ion a F on ie s in Poli ical Science.)
15
h ps://ca negieendowmen .o g/pos s/2023/12/how-has-chinas-bel -and- oad-ini ia i e-impac ed-
559
sou heas -asian-coun ies?lang=en (Accessed Feb ua y 15, 2025).
560
IISS China Connec s (n.d.). China Connec s: Me hodology. Re ie ed om561
h ps://chinaconnec s.iiss.o g/me hodology.aspx (Accessed Ma ch 5, 2025).
562
Chung, C. (2023). China’s Digi al Silk Road.
Eas Asian Policy
, 15(2), 123-37.563
Dayan , A. & S anhope, G. (2024).
Mind he Gap: Ambi ion Ve sus Deli e y in China’s
564
BRI Megap ojec s in Sou heas Asia
. Sydney: Lowy Ins i u e.
565
Feigenbaum, E., Ian, C., & Noo , E. (2024). China h ough A Sou heas Asian Lens.566
Ca negie Endowmen o In e na ional Peace. Re ie ed om
567
h ps://ca negieendowmen .o g/ esea ch/2024/11/china- h ough-a-sou heas -asian-568
lens?lang=en (Accessed Feb ua y 15, 2025).
569
Go don, D. (20222). The Digi al Silk Road: In oduc ion. In e na ional Ins i u e o 570
S a egic S udies. Re ie ed om h ps://www.iiss.o g/s /online-analysis/online-571
analysis/2022/12/digi al-silk- oad-in oduc ion/ (Accessed Feb ua y 24, 2025).
572
LSE Ideas (2018).
China's Bel and Road Ini ia i e (BRI) and Sou heas Asia
. Kuala573
Lumpu : CIMB Sou heas Asia Resea ch.
574
McB ide, J., Be man, N., & Cha zky, A. (2023). China’s Massi e Bel and Road Ini ia i e.575
Council on Fo eign Rela ions. Re ie ed om h ps://www.c .o g/backg ounde /chinas-massi e-576
bel -and- oad-ini ia i e (Accessed Ma ch 1, 2025).
577
Ngeow, Chow-Bing (2021).
China-ASEAN In o ma ion Habou : The Digi al Silk Road
578
om Guangxi o Sou heas Asia
. Bonn: F ied ich-Ebe -S i ung.
579
Sen, G. & Li, B. (2019). The Digi al Silk Road and he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals.580
IDS Bulle in
, 50(4). Re ie ed om
581
h ps://bulle in.ids.ac.uk/index.php/idsbo/a icle/ iew/3061/3037 (Accessed Ma ch 5, 2025).582
S a is a Resea ch Depa men (2025). Fo eign Di ec In es men (FDI) In lows o he583
ASEAN Membe Coun ies in 2023, By Coun y (in Billion U.S. Dolla s). S a is a. Re ie ed om
584
h ps://www.s a is a.com/s a is ics/1008281/asean- o eign-di ec -in es men -in lows-by-585
coun y/#:~: ex =In%202023%2C%20Singapo e%20 ecei ed%20 o eign,billion%20U.S.%20doll
586
a s%20in%202023 (Accessed Feb ua y 28, 2025).587
Yu, H. (2017). China's Bel and Road Ini ia i e and I s Implica ions o Sou heas Asia.588
Asia Policy
, 24, 117-22.
589
Zheng, W. (2024). China’s Digi al Silk Road (DSR) in Sou heas Asia: P og ess and590
Challenges.
ISEAS Pe spec i e, No. 1
. Re ie ed om h ps://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-
591
con en /uploads/2024/01/ISEAS_Pe spec i e_2024_1.pd (Accessed Feb ua y 28, 2025).592
593
Appendix594
595
Appendix 1: Lis o Rele an Va iables om he CAIED and IISS China Connec s
596
Da abase597
Coun yi
Yea
DSRi,
AI_expo i
mobilei,
In e ne i,
eal_GDP_pe _capi ai,
IEFi,
B unei
2018
0
0
129.27
95.0
29200.20
64.2
B unei
2019
1
0
129.85
95.0
29996.20
65.1
B unei
2020
1
0
119.93
96.3
30016.00
66.6
Cambodia
2018
2
1
119.31
.
1884.28
58.7
Cambodia
2019
6
1
129.96
52.3
2008.32
57.8
Cambodia
2020
0
1
126.08
53.7
1908.63
57.3
Indonesia
2018
0
1
118.33
39.9
3701.32
64.2
Indonesia
2019
8
1
125.24
47.7
3850.90
65.8
Indonesia
2020
5
1
129.40
53.7
3739.45
67.2
Laos
2018
0
1
51.38
36.3
2459.98
53.6
(This e sion is accep ed o publica ion a F on ie s in Poli ical Science.)
16
Laos
2019
0
1
64.07
47.0
2554.96
57.4
Laos
2020
0
1
63.11
54.0
2529.75
55.5
Malaysia
2018
6
0
128.87
81.2
10610.20
74.5
Malaysia
2019
9
0
133.37
84.2
10903.00
74.0
Malaysia
2020
0
0
129.02
89.6
10171.50
74.7
Myanma
2018
3
0
116.97
29.4
1361.57
53.9
Myanma
2019
5
0
155.67
36.5
1440.99
53.6
Myanma
2020
1
0
148.16
45.4
1301.31
54.0
Philippines
2018
5
0
122.96
44.1
3410.94
65.0
Philippines
2019
4
0
151.01
43.0
3575.88
63.8
Philippines
2020
1
0
133.46
53.8
3198.67
64.5
Singapo e
2018
2
0
152.07
88.2
61250.40
88.8
Singapo e
2019
9
0
159.35
88.9
61345.50
89.4
Singapo e
2020
6
0
150.26
92.0
59189.70
89.4
Thailand
2018
5
0
175.27
56.8
6314.20
67.1
Thailand
2019
8
0
181.22
66.7
6434.54
68.3
Thailand
2020
5
0
162.33
77.8
6035.19
69.4
Vie nam
2018
2
0
146.14
69.8
3048.28
53.1
Vie nam
2019
2
0
140.19
68.7
3241.08
55.3
Vie nam
2020
4
0
141.66
70.3
3303.17
58.8
598
