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Green methanol production from photovoltaics in Europe

Author: Rodríguez Pastor, Diego Antonio; Soltero Sánchez, Víctor Manuel; Chacartegui, Ricardo
Publisher: Elsevier
Year: 2025
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.123751
Source: https://idus.us.es/bitstreams/9eb89f9d-842c-4fd3-b551-fccd229e6632/download
G een me hanol p oduc ion om pho o ol aics in Eu ope
D.A. Rod iguez-Pas o
a,*
, V.M. Sol e o
b
, R. Chaca egui
a,c
a
Uni e si y o Se ille, Escuela T´
ecnica Supe io de Ingenie os, Camino de los Descub imien os s/n, 41092, Se ille, Spain
b
Uni e si y o Se ille, Escuela Poli ´
ecnica Supe io , 41011, Se ille, Spain
c
Uni e si y o Se ille, Labo a o y o Enginee ing o Ene gy and En i onmen al Sus ainabili y, Se ille, 41092, Spain
ABSTRACT
The Eu opean Union’s objec i e o non-biological uels is 10 M by 2030. The massi e implemen a ion o g een hyd ogen acili ies p edic s cos o e uns o
adap ing he exis ing indus y owa ds H
2
- eady, making he de elopmen o al e na i e e- uels impe a i e. Based on Eu opean GIS da a, his wo k analyses he
po en ial implemen a ion o g een me hanol om CO
2
cap u e in exis ing indus ies. The s udy is based on hyd ogen ac ion limi s on exis ing na u al gas g ids, wi h
maximum olume ic blends o 5–20 % H
2
. The analysis o bounda y condi ions based on wa e esou ces and p oximi y o he ne wo ks yields 3016 po en ial
municipali ies o implemen ing g een me hanol alleys. The analysis p ojec s a po en ial o ~30 M on H
2
/yea in PV o p oduce 5 M on o me hanol, wi h a ca bon
cap u e capaci y abo e 7 M on CO
2
/yea . The economic analysis o di e en scena ios shows ha in 2030, he le elized cos o me hanol could each alues a ound
~450
€
/ on MeOH, wi h IRR>15 %, showing he iabili y o he app oach.
1. In oduc ion
Ene gy ansi ion in ol es educing he dependence on ossil uels,
which a e non- enewable and lead o global wa ming [1,2]. Eu ope has
de eloped he REPowe EU plan o espond o he dis up ion o he en-
e gy ma ke caused by he Uk ainian wa in 2022 and Russian coe cion
[3]. I has es ablished a a ge o 10 million ons o uel o non-biological
o igin by 2030 [4]. This is d i en by p ojec unding and o he s a egies
ha esul in inc eased p oduc ion cos s pe equi alen on o CO
2
p oduced by he Emission T ading Scheme (ETS) [5].
Massi e implemen a ion o g een hyd ogen p oduc ion in he Eu o-
pean indus ial lee is expec ed o equi e he adap a ion o a la ge pa
o he mal p ocesses, wi h an es ima ed cos o e un o 60 % o
s akeholde s [6]. F om he educ ion o GHG emissions gene a ed by
con en ional p ocesses, g een hyd ogen p ojec s could each compe i-
i e p oduc ion p ices by 2035 [7,8]. The ans o ma ion o hyd ogen o
o he molecules, p esen ed as “g een uels”, is al eady a new pa adigm
o he ene gy ansi ion [9,10]. Syn hesis o g een hyd ogen and ca bon
monoxide/dioxide, as well as ni ogen, is he main p ocess o p oduce
highly useable uels such as g een me hanol o g een ammonia [11]. The
anspo and use o hese g een uels pose ewe limi a ions han he
di ec use o hyd ogen [12], which is a e y impo an asse o he
e ilise and cosme ic indus ies and o na al anspo [13,14].
Me hanol is a p omising candida e o g een uel due o i s high olu-
me ic ene gy densi y (15.6 MJ/L CH
3
OH >0.0107 MJ/L H
2
) and i s
liquid na u e unde ambien condi ions [15]. I is p oduced wo ldwide
h ough CO and CO
2
hyd ogena ion p ocesses, which allows i o ake
ad an age o CO
2
cap u e sys ems in exis ing indus ies o i s p oduc-
ion [16].
Al hough g een hyd ogen p oduc ion in he EU is expec ed o in-
c ease, no s udies ha e been conduc ed on he po en ial o g een
me hanol acili ies. Neumann e al. [17] examined he po en ial ole o
hyd ogen g id connec ion in Eu ope, educing cos s by 26 bn
€
/a, based
on he open PyPSA-Eu -Sec model [18]. Kakoulaki e al. [19] s udied
109 Eu opean egions o he implemen a ion o hyd ogen p ojec s,
whe e 84 o hem had >50 % excess ene gy wi h abundan enewable
sou ces. The wo k o Fasihi e al. [20] ob ained alues o 370–450
€
/ on
o g een NH
3
on all con inen s by 2030. In he case o he g een me h-
anol po en ial, he wo k o Bazaluk e al. [21] concluded ha in China,
he e is a heo e ical po en ial o 4.35–29.95 million ons. The wo k
p oposed by he au ho s s udies he po en ial o e-me hanol in he EU
zone a ea om sola PV, based on a Geog aphical In o ma ion Sys em
(GIS) s udy o u u e acili ies based on wa e esou ce a ailabili y, sola
esou ce, he capaci y o he nea by land o sola pho o ol aic plan s, as
well as he nodes o he nea by na u al gas g id o he injec ion o
su plus hyd ogen, and inally he p oximi y o ene gy-in ensi e indus-
ial plan s o he syn hesis o CO
2
and g een H
2
o g een me hanol.
This a icle is pa o a special issue en i led: SI ECOS2024 published in Renewable Ene gy.
* Co esponding au ho .
E-mail add ess: [email p o ec ed] (D.A. Rod iguez-Pas o ).
Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec
Renewable Ene gy
jou nal homepage: www.else ie .com/loca e/ enene
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j. enene.2025.123751
Recei ed 25 Oc obe 2024; Recei ed in e ised o m 2 Ap il 2025; Accep ed 11 June 2025
Renewable Ene gy 254 (2025) 123751
A ailable online 12 June 2025
0960-1481/© 2025 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC license (
h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-
nc/4.0/ ).
2. Me hodology
Acco ding o Eu os a , indus ial uel consump ion is esponsible o
2.4 G o ca bon dioxide emissions. CO
2
cap u e can be pe o med using
amine (MEA) sys ems, di ec ai cap u e, and Selexol, among o he s
[22]. Na u al gas consump ion in indus y and powe plan s is es ima ed
o be sha ed in he g id, wi h a mix u e o na u al gas and hyd ogen, and
i will be e y di icul o comple ely adap he cu en lee o H
2
- eady
[23]. In he i s phase o he ene gy ansi ion, i is es ima ed ha CO
2
emissions will no be comple ely educed, indica ing ha he e will be a
po en ial o cap u e and u iliza ion [24]. The p oposed solu ion, based
on he me hanol CO
2
cycle, is shown in Fig. 1. One o he bounda y
condi ions is gi en by he wa e esou ces o p oduce g een hyd ogen by
elec olysis, which equi es a leas 0.3 m
3
/h aw wa e pe kg o H
2
[25]. The p oposed me hodology conside s wa e om was ewa e
ea men plan s and elec ici y om a nea by sola pho o ol aic
ins alla ion as inpu s, and me hanol as an ou pu o sale. The aim is o
p omo e hyd ogen alleys o sel -consump ion in he icini y o in-
dus ial plan s, which will ha e MEA cap u e sys ems, as de ailed in
Sec ion 2.2. P oximi y o he na u al gas ne wo k will be simple in a eas
o high indus ial consump ion, bu i will pose a cos o e un o
hyd ogen anspo in acili ies ha ha e a nea by injec ion poin bu a
dis an indus y.
Da a managemen is c i ical o assessing he geog aphic po en ial o
he p oposed echnology. Na u al gas in as uc u e is p o ided by he
wo k o Die ich e al. [26], he CO
2
es ima ion p oduced by he Eu-
opean OpenGHGMap p ojec [27], he exis ing was ewa e ea men
plan s, as well as he adminis a i e limi s by he Eu opean Commission,
and he sola PV p oduc ion esou ce (kWh/kWp) om Sola GIS™
maps. F om he c ea ion o land bu e s a ound he injec ion poin s
planned o his pu pose, a se ies o en i onmen ally easible plo s will
be selec ed ha do no comp omise o he land uses, implemen ing he
Cope nicus da abase, “CORINE Land Co e .” The de ails o he me h-
odology a e explained in he ollowing sec ions.
2.1. Eu ope na u al gas in as uc u e
Acco ding o he wo k o Plu a e al. [28] om he DLR, he
IGGIELGNC-1 model has a o al na u al gas pipeline leng h o 237,000
km, and he de ails o he acili ies a e shown in Fig. 2. This wo k
ocused on he indus ial consump ion o na u al gas, as de ailed in
Fig. 2B, due o he be e in eg a ion o he me hanol syn hesis plan in o
he indus ial en i onmen . Ha ing na u al gas comp esso s nea by will
be o in e es (Fig. 2D), as i will allow he cons uc ion o a nea by
pipeline o injec excess hyd ogen p oduced in he hyd olysis plan .
Fig. 2 shows he la ge po en ial o hyd ogen blending in he cu en
g id, conside ing 5–20 % blends. Speci ically, 183 na u al gas com-
p esso s accumula e a daily maximum o 6800 M m
3
o NG. Comp ession
o na u al gas o 273 powe plan s and >75 la ge na u al gas consume s
p esen an oppo uni y o implemen he syn hesis o me hanol om
CO
2
cap u e. Fig. 3 shows he bounda y condi ions equi ed o he
implemen a ion o he p oposed sys em. Fig. 3B, co esponding o
OpenGHGMap da a [27], indica es he a eas o Eu ope wi h he highes
concen a ion o CO
2
emissions in Eu ope. This analysis is consis en
wi h Fig. 3A and C, which show ha hese a e a eas, especially in
sou he n Spain, whe e he e is a la ge a e age annual sola esou ce and
a wa e esou ce (23965 TSW) o he gene a ion o g een hyd ogen.
The ollowing dis ances we e es ablished a ound he ins alla ion
bounda y condi ions, as lis ed in Table 1. The assump ions we e made
based on he e alua ion o exis ing plan s and acco ding o he p o ec ed
a eas o he Na u a2000 laye s. The au ho s assume ha he p oposed
dis ance alues can be educed, which can imp o e he economic
p o i abili y o ins alla ions.
2.2. CO
2
cap u e
The e a e wo main me hods o p oduce me hanol om CO
2
: di ec
hyd ogena ion o CO
2
o me hanol as a one-s ep con e sion and he
e e se wa e gas shi eac ion (RWGS), which con e s CO
2
in o CO in
he i s s ep and i s hyd ogena ion o p oduce me hanol as a wo-s ep
con e sion. In his wo k, he con e sion o CO
2
in a single s ep was
used. Conside ing p e ious s udies in he li e a u e, cap u e by chemical
abso p ion o exhaus gases wi h MEA (monoe hanolamine) sol en a a
concen a ion o 30 % has been conside ed. Fig. 4 shows he CO
2
ab-
so p ion p ocess using MEA wi h sol en egene a ion ia hea ing.
Be o e he cap u e p ocess, lue gases mus be ea ed and com-
p essed o compensa e o he p essu e dec ease in he abso p ion col-
umn. The low-CO
2
sol en is hen added a he op o he abso p ion
column (s eam 6), while i is added a he bo om. MEA eac s wi h CO
2
h ough he column. A e being p ehea ed by he egene a ed sol en
exi ing he egene a ion column, he CO
2
- ich sol en om he bo om
o he abso p ion column is deli e ed o he egene a ion column, whe e
he e is a condense and a eboile . To e e se he eac ion be ween he
amine and CO
2
, he eboile eco e s ene gy om he condensa ion o
low-p essu e s eam (LP). Condensed wa e apou om he egene a-
ion column’s gas low is hen einjec ed in o he column. A e p e-
hea ing he CO
2
- ich sol en , he egene a ed sol en is injec ed back
in o he abso p ion column. Gi en he ocus o his wo k, a CO
2
cap u e
Fig. 1. Concep ual scheme o he p oposed me hanol (MeOH) cycle. P oduced e-me hanol a he ou pu can be sold, and wa e and elec ici y a e equi ed as inpu s
in he elec olysis p ocess.
D.A. Rod iguez-Pas o e al.
Renewable Ene gy 254 (2025) 123751
2
a io o 85 % was conside ed, assuming a consump ion o 44 kWh
el
/ on
CO
2
, wi h he alida ion o a wide obse a ion in he li e a u e [29,30].
2.3. Hyd ogen p oduc ion
Th ee p ima y me hods o wa e elec olysis ange om solid oxide
elec olyze s, p o on exchange memb anes (PEM), and alkaline elec-
olysis [31]. Du ing p o on-exchange memb ane elec olysis, p o ons
mo e h ough a memb ane. A he anode, p o ons a e c ea ed oge he
wi h oxygen. A he ca hode, p o ons c oss he memb ane and combine
o o m hyd ogen. Noble me als a e needed o elec odes due o co -
osi e acidic condi ions, which inc eases he capi al cos o he PEM
Fig. 2. Na u al gas in as uc u e o he EU zone in 2022. Figu e A de ails he na u al gas ne wo k and he maximum daily capaci y in M m
3
/day, Figu e B he
indus ial consump ion, Figu e C he powe plan s consuming NG and Figu e D he NG comp esso s and hei maximum daily capaci y in M m
3
/day.
Fig. 3. Resou ce map o g een me hanol deploymen in Eu ope. Figu e A indica es he numbe o a e age daily sola hou s ob ained om Sola GIS. Figu e B
indica es he o al CO
2
emission po en ial ( on/yea ) in di e en egions o Eu ope acco ding o Re . [27]. Figu e C shows Eu ope’s wa e esou ces in 2022 acco ding
o he Eu opean Commission. (Fo in e p e a ion o he e e ences o colou in his igu e legend, he eade is e e ed o he Web e sion o his a icle.)
Table 1
Bu e dis ances o GIS analysis o he e alua ion o g een
me hanol acili ies.
Ins alla ion Bu e
Na u al Gas Node 20 km
Na u al Gas Consume 10 km
Wa e T ea men S a ion 10 km
U ban Zones 10 km
CO
2
Emissions ( on/yea ) >140,000
D.A. Rod iguez-Pas o e al.
Renewable Ene gy 254 (2025) 123751
3
elec olyze [32]. PEM elec olysis was used in his wo k and i s con-
di ions in all in eg a ed cases a e shown in Table 2.
Alkaline elec olysis elec odes a e subme ged in a liquid elec oly e
and kep apa by a diaph agm. The elec oly e is ypically a KOH so-
lu ion, and as OH- ions mo e h ough he diaph agm, hey elease wa e
and oxygen a he anode and hyd ogen a he ca hode. Because he mal
ac i a ion occu s a empe a u es be ween 700 and 900 ◦C, hese elec-
olyze s should be mo e e icien han PEM and alkaline elec olyze s i
hey ha e good hea in eg a ion.
2.4. Me hanol syn hesis
The wo-s ep me hod o syn hesizing me hanol has a highe yield
han he one-s ep me hod acco ding o Joo e al. [33]. A me hod o
p oducing me hanol om CO
2
ex ac ed om coal powe plan lue gas
and elec oly ic hyd ogen was p esen ed in Re . [34]. The comme cial
ca alys Cu/ZnO/Al
2
O
3
has been s udied by se e al au ho s o p oduce
me hanol om CO
2
[35]. Exo he mic eac ions o p oduce me hanol and
RWGS eac ion ha occu s in pa allel a e lis ed in Equa ions (1)–(3):
CO +2H2↔CH3OH (1)
CO2+3H2↔CH3OH +H2O(2)
CO2+H2↔CO +H2O(3)
The p ocess low diag am op imized by Van-Dal e al. [29] is shown
in Fig. 5. A 25 ◦C, 1 ba o CO
2
and 30 ba o H
2
a e ed. A sequence o
in e cooling comp esso s comp esses CO
2
o 78 ba , and hyd ogen is
comp essed o 78 ba in one-s ep. A e mixing bo h gases, he ecycle
s eam is added again. A e eaching 210 ◦C, he s eam 14 is injec ed
in o a ixed bed adiaba ic eac o . The eac o ’s gases a e spli in o wo
s eams: he i s s eam, which makes up 60 % o he ini ial s eam, is
used o hea he new eed (s eam 13), while he second s eam is used o
hea he eed o he dis illa ion column as well as he eboile (REB
1
). In
a knock-ou d um (FL
2
), condensed wa e and me hanol a e isola ed
om he un eac ed gases. To minimise he buildup o ine gases and
by-p oduc s in he eac ion loop, 1 % o he non- eac ed gases a e
pu ged.
Me hanol, wa e , and esidual dissol ed gases make up he c ude
me hanol liquid s eam ha exi s he knockou d um (FL
1
). Two al es
inc ease he c ude me hanol o 1.2 ba . The emaining gases a e hen
i ually elimina ed in a lash ank. A e passing h ough exchange
HX
b
and eaching 80 ◦C, he esidual s eam is di ec ed o a dis illa ion
column (COL
1
). A 102 ◦C, wa e wi h 23 w pa s pe billion me hanol is
eleased om he bo om o he column. A 1 ba p essu e and 64 ◦C,
me hanol exi s as a gas and con ains 69 ppm (weigh ) o wa e and
un eac ed gases. A e ha , me hanol is chilled o 40 ◦C and comp essed.
Non- eac ed gases exi he op o a knock-ou d um (FL
3
), whe eas he
liquid me hanol p oduc exi s he bo om.
2.5. Economic conside a ions
The economic conside a ions o he e alua ion o capi al expendi-
u es (CAPEX) a e based on a scope o scalabili y, whe e o his wo k
he model de eloped by Ny´
a i [36] o he e e ence o al capi al in-
es men (TCI). This model in eg a es di ec cos s, such as equipmen
p ocu emen , piping, and ins alla ion, wi h indi ec cos s, including land
acquisi ion, ci il and a chi ec u al wo ks, licensing, and esea ch and
de elopmen (R&D). The TCI shows a p opo ionali y wi h he cos o
pu chased equipmen (PEC), as de ined in Equa ion (4), which e lec s
he gene al p ac ice o cos es ima ion in chemical plan s, whe e indi-
ec cos s cons i u e he la ges up on in es men .
TCI =6.32⋅PEC (4)
Being PEC he o al cos o he equipmen pu chased. The cos o CO
2
cap u e in as uc u e (CCO2) is gi en by he Chemical Enginee ing Plan
Cos Index (CEPCI) adjus ed o 2022, being a powe -law scaling ela-
ionship (Equa ion (5)). This de ini ion implies ha ma ginal cos s
dec ease as capaci y inc eases.
CCO2=61.7⋅106⋅(COou
2
2.71⋅106 on)0.72
(5)
Simila ly, he me hanol syn hesis block cos s (CMeOH) ollow a scale-
up ac o o 0.6 (Equa ion (6)), acco ding o he li e a u e o ubula
eac o s in he chemical indus y. This e lec s a non-linea ela ionship
be ween eac o sizing and capi al cos , de i ed om ma e ial and
manu ac u ing cos s as he scale inc eases.
CMeOH =16.39 ⋅106⋅(MeOHou
1.71⋅106 on)0.6
(6)
The cos o hyd ogen p oduc ion is based on an es ima ed p ice pe
kW. Based on ma ke benchma ks and u u e p edic ions, alues o
€
600/kW,
€
750/kW and
€
900/kW a e de ined. The pho o ol aic sys em
is se a
€
600/kW, acco ding o epo s om he In e na ional Ene gy
Agency (IEA) in 2022 [37], which will ake he sel -consump ion
con igu a ion o a oid g id consump ion. The cos s o enewable gas
anspo in as uc u e a e es ima ed a 416
€
/m, adjus ed using he
CEPCI index, and he annual ope a ing expenses (OPEX) a e se a 2.5 %
o he global CAPEX. To add ess unce ain ies in ma ke s and ene gy
policy amewo ks, h ee di e en p oduc ion/sale scena ios a e p o-
posed (Table 3), which include op imis ic, baseline, and conse a i e
p ojec ions o me hanol, hyd ogen, and CO
2
cap u e p ices. The Fu u e
(op imis ic) scena io assumes declining CAPEX o g een hyd ogen
(1200
€
/kW) and educed CO2 cap u e cos s (70
€
/ on), e lec ing he
EU deca bonisa ion a ge s and subsidies unde he REPowe EU ini ia-
i e. The cu en (baseline) scena io aligns wi h he ma ke condi ions o
2023, inco po a ing mode a e hyd ogen elec olyze cos s (1350
€
/kW)
and CO2 p ices (80
€
/ on). The high (conse a i e) scena io p ojec s
ele a ed g een hyd ogen p oduc ion CAPEX (1500
€
/kW) and CO2
cap u e cos s (90
€
/ on), simula ing po en ial supply chain dis up ions
o s ic e ca bon axa ion egimes, bu highe hyd ogen and me hanol
sales p ices o compensa e o cos o e uns.
The ola ili y in enewable gas sales p ices is add essed wi h a ange
o
€
30–50/MWh, acco ding o na u al gas p ices in 2023 and wi hou
Fig. 4. P ocess low diag am o he CO
2
cap u e phase by chemical abso p ion
wi h monoe hanolamine (MEA).
Table 2
The modynamic hypo heses o he e alua ion o elec olysis o me h-
anol syn hesis.
Va iable Value
Tempe a u e, Telec 120 ◦C
P essu e, pelec 30 ba
Elec ic Ene gy Requi ed, Eelec 4.8 kWh/m
3
H
2
Elec olyze E iciency,
η
elec 0.65
D.A. Rod iguez-Pas o e al.
Renewable Ene gy 254 (2025) 123751
4
conside ing dis up i e e en s ha aise p ices in 2022. The Le elized
Cos o Me hanol (LCOM) (Equa ion (7)) se es as a me ic ha e alu-
a es he discoun ed li e ime cos o me hanol p oduc ion in he p oposed
scena ios. Assuming a 30-yea plan li e ime (N), a 2.5 % discoun a e
( ), and a 25 % co po a e ax a e, he LCOM indica o p o ides a
comp ehensi e compa ison o economic iabili y unde a ying ma ke
condi ions:
LCOM =∑
N
n=1
OPEXn+Taxesn
(1+ )n+CAPEX
∑
N
n=1
MeOHn
(1+ )n
(7)
Complemen ing his, he In e nal Ra e o Re u n (IRRN), de i ed
om he ne p esen alue (NPV) and he de ini ion o he cash low
(CFn), quan i ies p ojec p o i abili y and in es o decision pa ame e
(Equa ion (8)):
0=NPV =∑
N
n=0
CFn
(1+IRRN)n(8)
The explici linkage o CO
2
p icing o EU ETS ajec o ies ensu es
policy ele ance, while economic analysis p o ides s akeholde s wi h a
p obabilis ic isk assessmen ailo ed o ola ile ene gy ma ke s. LCOM
and IRR es ima ions anscend con en ional cos -bene i analyses by
inco po a ing ax egimes and discoun a es e lec i e o cu en mac-
oeconomic condi ions. This app oach enables di ec compa isons wi h
ossil-based me hanol, demons a ing he economic compe i i eness o
g een me hanol based on ou s a egy.
3. Resul s and discussion
Fig. 6 shows he po en ial o g een me hanol p oduc ion in Eu ope,
based on a geospa ial analysis o 9213 heo e ically iable municipal-
i ies, iden i ied by hei p oximi y o na u al gas in as uc u e, indus-
ial CO
2
sou ces and wa e ea men plan s. A e applying land use
il e s, such as p o ec ions o u ban and p o ec ed a eas, as well as e-
qui emen s o PV ins alla ions (50 MW on >100 ha), 3016 echnically
iable municipali ies a e selec ed, concen a ed in egions o high
a e age i adiance (4–5 kWh/kWp/day) and close o indus ial hubs. In
egions wi h low sola esou ces (~1500 h/yea o peak sunshine), such
as in no he n Eu ope, p oduc ion eaches 1709 k on/yea o me hanol
and 185 k on/yea o hyd ogen, which equi es 400 TWh/yea o pho-
o ol aics. In con as , sou he n Eu opean egions (2500 peak sun
hou s), such as Spain and I aly, agg ega e up o 1900 k on/yea o
me hanol and 13,500 k on/yea o hyd ogen wi h 1600 TWh/yea o
sola PV p oduc ion, implying a educ ion in he le elised cos o
me hanol o up o 35 % compa ed o o he egions wi h lowe sola
esou ces. Challenges such as wa e sca ci y, egula o y and land
acquisi ion ba ie s, and g id cons ain s equi e coo dina ed policies.
Fig. 5. Me hanol syn hesis om CO
2
hyd ogena ion p ocess low diag am. C: Comp esso , CT: Coole /Condense , HX: Hea Exchange , FL: D um, R: Reac o ,
COL: Column.
Table 3
Economic alues o p oduc ion and sales assumed o he scena ios s udied in
his wo k.
Scena io Sell P ice G een H
2
CAPEX (
€
/kW)
CO
2
(
€
/ on)
H
2
(
€
/MWh)
MeOH
(
€
/ on)
Fu u e p oduc ion/
sale p ices
70 30 350 1200
Cu en p oduc ion/
sale p ices
80 40 450 1350
High p oduc ion/sale
p ices
90 50 550 1500
Fig. 6. Hyd ogen and g een me hanol p oduc ion esul s acco ding o he as-
sump ions o his wo k in k /yea and equi alen sola PV elec ici y p oduc ion
in TWh/y . (Fo in e p e a ion o he e e ences o colou in his igu e legend,
he eade is e e ed o he Web e sion o his a icle.)
D.A. Rod iguez-Pas o e al.
Renewable Ene gy 254 (2025) 123751
5

Fig. 7 quan i ies he economic iabili y o g een me hanol p oduc-
ion as a unc ion o hyd ogen p oduc ion and sola ene gy inpu . The
analysis e eals ha he p oposed g een me hanol acili ies could p o-
duce 4.65 million ons/yea o e-me hanol, cap u ing ~7.7 million ons
o CO
2
annually, which is equi alen o neu alizing he ca bon oo p in
o 615,000 Eu opean households. This aligns wi h he EU’s ambi ion o
scale non-biological enewable uels since he associa ed g een
hyd ogen p oduc ion po en ial (~32.5 million ons/yea ) iples he
2030 a ge o enewable hyd ogen de i a i es. The o al CAPEX o he
deploymen o hese acili ies is es ima ed a
€
700 billion, wi h an
annual OPEX o
€
10 billion. Fig. 7A shows how small-scale ins alla ions
in low-sola esou ce egions (<1600 kWh/m
2
/y ), gene a ing less han
400 GWh/yea o pho o ol aic (PV) ene gy, exhibi IRR <5 % due o he
subop imal size o he plan and he excessi e land equi emen s. A 200
GWh/yea PV plan in No he n Eu ope (e.g., Sco land) equi es ~1200
ha o land bu yields only 12,000 ons/yea o hyd ogen, esul ing in
p ohibi i ely high LCOM (>
€
1100/ on) and nega i e NPV. Facili ies in
high sola esou ce egions (>2200 kWh/m
2
/y ), such as Andalusia
(Sou h Spain) o Sicily, achie e IRR >15 % a PV ou pu s (ene gy p o-
duc ion) exceeding 1200 GWh/yea . These la ge-scale ins alla ions
bene i om economies o scale, educing land use in ensi y and
hyd ogen p oduc ion cos s. The nonlinea ela ionship be ween
hyd ogen ou pu and IRR implies ha double hyd ogen p oduc ion om
50,000 o 100,000 ons/yea boos s IRR by 6–8 pe cen age poin s
(Fig. 7A), while LCOM declines om
€
850/ on o
€
520/ on (Fig. 7B).
The colou g adien in Fig. 7A and B shows he in e dependence o PV
p oduc ion, hyd ogen ou pu , and economic me ics. A mid-sized acil-
i y p oducing 600 GWh/yea o sola ene gy (g een g adien ) gene a es
~35,000 ons/yea o hyd ogen, achie ing an IRR o 9–11 % and LCOM
o
€
620–680/ on. This places g een me hanol wi hin s iking dis ance o
ossil-based me hanol p ices (~
€
375/ on) when pai ed wi h ca bon
p icing (>
€
80/ on CO2). The s eepes LCOM educ ions occu in he
800–1200 GWh/yea PV ange, whe e LCOM d ops by
€
180–220/ on o
each inc emen al 100 GWh o sola ene gy, d i en by lowe elec olyze
u iliza ion cos s. Sou he n Eu ope, wi h i s abundan sola esou ces, can
achie e IRR >12 % e en wi hou subsidies, while con inen al and
no he n egions equi e a ge ed in e en ions (EU Inno a ion Fund o
s a e-aid exemp ions) o b idge he
€
250–400/ on LCOM gap.
Fig. 8 illus a es he ela ionship be ween sola esou ce a ailabili y
(annual peak sun hou s) and key economic me ics, such as le elized
cos o me hanol (LCOM) and in e nal a e o e u n (IRR), ac oss he
h ee p oposed p oduc ion/sales p ice scena ios ( u u e, cu en and
high). The analysis e eals a s ong co ela ion be ween sola i adiance
and economic iabili y, pa icula ly in egions exceeding 2000 sun
hou s annually. Unde he Fu u e scena io (op imis ic ma ke condi-
ions), acili ies in high sola esou ce egions (e.g., Sou he n Eu ope,
wi h 2300–2500 sun hou s) achie e LCOM alues as low as
€
400–600/
on, compe i i e wi h con en ional me hanol p ices (~
€
375/ on) when
accoun ing o ca bon p icing. These esul s align wi h he EU a ge o
20 million ons o enewable hyd ogen de i a i es by 2030, since la ge-
scale g een hyd ogen alleys ( o example, he Ibe ian Peninsula)
le e age economies o scale o educe LCOM by ~30 % compa ed o
isola ed acili ies. IRR alues in hese egions each 8–12 %, incen i-
ising p i a e sec o in es men . In he cu en scena io, LCOM in-
c eases o
€
600–800/ on o medium sola esou ce egions
(1700–2000 sun hou s), such as cen al I aly o sou he n F ance. He e,
he IRR d ops o 5 %–7 %, e lec ing highe elec olyze CAPEX
(
€
750–900/kW) and g id balance cos s. Howe e , clus e ing acili ies
nea indus ial CO
2
sou ces) mi iga es cos s, achie ing LCOM pa i y
(<
€
700/ on) h ough sha ed in as uc u e, emphasized by he
€
44.56–98.75/ on cos educ ion. The high-p ice scena io highligh s he
isks o ele a ed CAPEX and ola ile ma ke s. Despi e agg essi e sales
p ices, acili ies in low sola esou ce a eas (<1500 sun hou s, e.g.,
No he n Eu ope) ace LCOM exceeding
€
1000/ on, wi h IRR s agna ing
a 2–4 %. Regions combining high annual sola hou s (>2200) sus ain
LCOM below
€
500/ on, e en wi h hyd ogen elec olyze cos s o
€
900/
kW. A 20 % inc ease in sun hou s (1700 o 2040) educes LCOM by
€
200–250/ on, while IRR imp o es by 4–6 %. Sou he n Eu ope’s sola -
ich zones equi e a ge ed CAPEX subsidies o accele a e p ojec scal-
abili y, while con inen al and no he n egions depend on c oss-bo de
hyd ogen co ido s and ca bon cap u e pa ne ships. The
€
53.33–71.9/ ons cos di e en ial be ween clus e ed and isola ed acil-
i ies u he alida es he EU Hyd ogen Valleys Ini ia i e, which p i-
o i ises s akeholde collabo a ion o consolida e supply chains.
Cu en ly, in con inen al, A lan ic, bo eal, and Alpine clima e zones,
g een me hanol ins alla ions ha ely exclusi ely on sola pho o ol aic
(PV) ene gy a e deemed economically un iable acco ding o he as-
sump ions o his s udy, due o lowe sola i adiance and p onounced
seasonal a iabili y in hese egions, which educes he annual capaci y
ac o o pho o ol aic sys ems. In eg a ing complemen a y enewable
ene gy sou ces, such as o sho e o o sho e wind, could signi ican ly
imp o e economic easibili y in hese a eas. Fo ins ance, No he n
Eu opean egions wi h high wind po en ial (e.g., No h Sea coas al zones
o Scandina ian jo ds) could mi iga e sola in e mi ency by le e aging
wind ene gy, capi alising on seasonal syne gies: wind gene a ion peaks
du ing win e mon hs when sola ou pu declines, ensu ing a mo e
s able elec ici y supply o hyd ogen elec olysis and me hanol syn-
hesis. Fu he mo e, he exclusion o ene gy s o age echnologies, such
as hyd ogen bu e s o age o ba e y sys ems, ep esen s a simpli ica-
ion in his analysis. Inco po a ing elec ic ene gy s o age could enable
he con inuous ope a ion o elec olyze s and me hanol eac o s,
decoupling hem om enewable a iabili y. G id in e ac ion (excluded
he e) could p o ide ope a ional lexibili y, allowing su plus enewable
elec ici y o be ed in o he g id du ing peak demand pe iods, hus
educing ope a ional cos s. These enhancemen s, while beyond he
scope o he cu en wo k, unde sco e s a egies o imp o e he esil-
ience o g een me hanol p oduc ion in egions less sui ed o sola -cen ic
sys ems. Geog aphically, as illus a ed in Fig. 9, app oxima ely 3000
p oposed acili ies a e e alua ed based on hei in e nal a e o e u n
Fig. 7. Economic esul s as a unc ion o hyd ogen p oduc ion ( on/yea ) o A)
IRR o he e-Me hanol plan in % B) Le elised cos o e-Me hanol in
€
/ onne.
The colou g adien in he backg ound indica es he equi alen pho o ol aic
p oduc ion in each case in GWh/yea . (Fo in e p e a ion o he e e ences o
colou in his igu e legend, he eade is e e ed o he Web e sion o
his a icle.)
D.A. Rod iguez-Pas o e al.
Renewable Ene gy 254 (2025) 123751
6
(IRR) in all scena ios. The analysis e eals ha he ene gy ma ke dy-
namics, pa icula ly he p ices o blending hyd ogen and me hanol
selling, exe a s onge in luence on p o i abili y han he high CAPEX
o hyd ogen echnologies, al hough he la e emains a c i ical ba ie .
In Fig. 9C, which assumes ele a ed p ices o hyd ogen and me hanol
analogous o he ea ly 2023 ma ke condi ions, acili ies in sola - ich
egions achie e IRRs exceeding 15 %, despi e high up on cos s. This
sugges s ha hyb id wind-PV s o age sys ems in empe a e clima es
could eplica e such ou comes, pa icula ly i aligned wi h policy ini-
ia i es such as he Eu opean Hyd ogen Bank, which p io i ises in e-
g a ed in as uc u e and subsidies. Fu u e wo k will explo e hese
syne gies, quan i ying how mul i- echnology enewable sys ems and
ac i e g id managemen could op imise he ene gy mix o e- uel p o-
duc ion, accele a ing Eu ope’s ansi ion o a clima e-neu al economy.
Fig. 10 p esen s a geospa ial analysis o g een me hanol p oduc ion
cos s in Eu ope unde h ee p icing scena ios, mapped h ough le elized
me hanol cos anges (LCOM) (
€
/ on). In he u u e p oduc ion/sales
scena io (Fig. 10A), 553 acili ies (27 % o he o al) achie e compe i i e
LCOM alues be ween
€
432 o 632/ on, concen a ed p edominan ly in
sou he n Eu ope, he Ibe ian Peninsula, sou he n I aly and G eece,
whe e he high sola i adiance (>2000 kWh/m
2
/y ) minimises
enewable ene gy cos s. E en in hese op imal egions, g een me hanol
equi es a p emium selling p ice (400–600
€
/ on) o o se he ini ial
CAPEX ba ie s, pa icula ly o elec olyze s (>
€
700/kW). Unde
Fig. 8. Maximum economic alues as a unc ion o sola esou ce o IRR and LCOM, scaled o he di e en p oduc ion/sales p ice scena ios p oposed.
Fig. 9. Eu opean map wi h selec ed g een me hanol acili ies acco ding o hei in e nal a e o e u n (IRR
30
), o each p oposed p oduc ion/sales p ice scena io.
(Fo in e p e a ion o he e e ences o colou in his igu e legend, he eade is e e ed o he Web e sion o his a icle.)
Fig. 10. Eu opean map wi h selec ed g een me hanol acili ies acco ding o hei LCOM (
€
/ on), o each p oposed p oduc ion/sales p ice scena io. (Fo in e -
p e a ion o he e e ences o colou in his igu e legend, he eade is e e ed o he Web e sion o his a icle.)
D.A. Rod iguez-Pas o e al.
Renewable Ene gy 254 (2025) 123751
7
cu en ma ke condi ions (Fig. 10B), 1609 acili ies (52 % o he o al)
exhibi LCOM alues clus e ed be ween
€
832 and 1032/ on, wi h ho -
spo s in con inen al Eu ope (e.g., wes e n Ge many, and no he n
F ance). These a eas bene i om he exis ing indus ial in as uc u e
o CO
2
cap u e (s eel/cemen ac o ies) and he p oximi y o hyd ogen
pipelines, which educes anspo a ion cos s. The dominance o mid-
ange LCOM alues (
€
800–1000/ on) highligh s he pe sis en cos gap
compa ed o ossil-de i ed me hanol (~
€
200–300
€
/ on), unde sco ing
he need o policy mechanisms such as ca bon con ac s o make a
di e ence. The high p oduc ion/sales scena io (Fig. 10C) demons a es
he po en ial o educed elec olyze CAPEX (<
€
700/kW), wi h 1120
acili ies (34 % o o al) achie ing LCOM alues o <1032
€
/ on despi e
he ele a ed p ices o hyd ogen and me hanol. 735 acili ies in his
scena io ope a e a
€
632–832/ on, concen a ed in egions, whe e wind
ene gy could complemen sola PV o s abilise inpu cos s (e.g., coas al
Denma k, I eland). E en in high-cos b acke s (
€
1232–1432/ on), 119
acili ies emain iable in s a egic indus ial hubs (e.g., Ro e dam),
whe e EU- unded hyd ogen alleys and ca bon p icing (>
€
80/ on CO
2
)
o se economic hu dles. Sou he n Eu ope le e ages sola abundance o
low LCOM, while con inen al and no he n egions ely on indus ial
syne gies and policy suppo . Fu u e cos educ ions in elec olysis
(<
€
600/kW) and g id balance s o age could expand low-cos clus e s
(
€
432–632/ on) in o empe a e zones.
4. Conclusions
The e is an oppo uni y o a massi e deploymen o g een me hanol
om sola pho o ol aic hyd ogen in Eu ope. This wo k has s udied he
po en ial o p oduce g een me hanol om GIS analysis, conside ing
exis ing na u al gas acili ies and he emissions ela ed o hei p o-
cesses. Based on he sola esou ce, 3016 po en ial Eu opean munici-
pali ies ha e been conside ed o he implemen a ion o g een me hanol
plan s, conside ing he sale o CO
2
emissions, he sale o su plus H
2
o
he NG g id h ough blending, and he sale o me hanol o o he in-
dus ies, allowing he capaci y o o he inno a i e uses o me hanol
p oposed by he au ho s in p e ious wo ks. Fu u e p ices o elec olysis
acili ies o e ob ained alues o ~480
€
/ on MeOH, wi h in e nal a es
o e u n >15 %, showing he economic iabili y o he acili ies. I he
ins alla ions did no injec hyd ogen by blending, iabili y would no be
ob ained, as o sola ins alla ions wi h a capaci y below 200 MWp. I is
es ima ed ha he Eu opean adminis a ion’s join con ibu ion and
alliances be ween s akeholde s can con ibu e o la ge powe and p o-
duc ion plan s ha ensu e lowe p oduc ion cos s. The cos s a e highly
de e mined by he CAPEX o he g een H
2
ins alla ion, bu he na u al
gas ma ke and ETS a e shown o be de e minan s o in es o s. The
combined in es men o ~700 bn
€
would enable Eu ope o p oduce 5
M on MeOH annually om sel -consump ion sola PV, educing GHG
emissions by 7.7 M on CO
2
/y and making a decisi e con ibu ion o
clima e change mi iga ion.
CRediT au ho ship con ibu ion s a emen
D.A. Rod iguez-Pas o : W i ing – o iginal d a , Visualiza ion,
So wa e, Resou ces, Me hodology, In es iga ion, Fo mal analysis, Da a
cu a ion. V.M. Sol e o: W i ing – e iew & edi ing, Visualiza ion,
Valida ion, Supe ision, Fo mal analysis. R. Chaca egui: W i ing –
e iew & edi ing, Valida ion, Supe ision, Resou ces, P ojec adminis-
a ion, Funding acquisi ion.
Decla a ion o compe ing in e es
The au ho s decla e ha hey ha e no known compe ing inancial
in e es s o pe sonal ela ionships ha could ha e appea ed o in luence
he wo k epo ed in his pape .
Acknowledgemen
This wo k was pa ially unded om he EU Nex Gene a ion unds
and om he Spanish Minis y o Science and Inno a ion, h ough he
p ojec s ’Nue o concep o modula de almacenamien o e moquímico de
ene gía a al a empe a u a basado en p ocesos inno ado es’ - MOTH-
ERESE, g an TED2021-131839B-C21 and ’P ocesos y componen es
pa a el almacenamien o híb ido de ene gía ´
e mica basado en sales
undidas y ca bona os’ - HIPERTES, g an PID2022-140815OB-C21.
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