scieee Science in your language
[In] (orig)

The need for municipal action planning against flood risk: the risk-informed journey of the municipality of Oliva (Spain)

Abstract

[EN] Society demands higher safety levels, including those actions related to urban planning and protection against natural hazards and manmade threats. Therefore, authorities respond to these demands through new regulatory and operational frameworks to cope with existing and future risks. The Spanish regulatory framework regarding flood risk management, based on the European context, defines the required procedures for emergency management, involving all authorities responsable for civil protection and urban planning. This framework requires all municipalities at medium or high flood risk to develop and implement local action plans against flood risk (PAMRI, by its acronym in Spanish), which must include a risk estimation, analysis and evaluation, along with the description of actions for a risk-informed urban planning and emergency management. The City Council of Oliva developed the corresponding plan, approved by the regional government in June 2016, including new aspects such as the figure of the Technical Director, and a comprehensive and quantitative flood risk analysis to support decisionmaking on emergency management and planning.

Read accessible full text

The need for municipal action planning against flood risk: the risk-informed journey of the municipality of Oliva (Spain)

Author: Porta-Sancho, Juan R.,Castillo Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara,Escuder Bueno, Ignacio,Perales-Momparler, Sara
Publisher: Universitat Politècnica de València
Year: 2016
DOI: 10.4995/vitruvio-ijats.2016.6849
Source: https://riunet.upv.es/bitstream/10251/75645/1/6849-24242-1-PB.pdf
66
Remo al o he coa ing laye o he eba o pe o m he Eco measu emen , modi ica ion: cu and sa u a ion
Oli a iew om San a Anna hill by V. Ba e es (2016), modi ica ion: cu
Vi u io
In e na ional
jou nal o
A chi ec u e
Technology and
Sus ainabili y
Volume 2
67
ABSTRACT
1Oli a Ci y Council, Oli a
2Uni e si a Poli ècnica de València, Resea ch Ins i u e o Wa e and En i onmen al Enginee ing
(IIAMA-UPV)
3 iP esas Risk Analysis (Spin-o Uni e si a Poli ècnica de València)
4 G een Blue Managemen , Valencia
Socie y demands highe sa e y le els, including hose ac ions ela ed o u ban planning and p o ec ion agains
na u al haza ds and manmade h ea s. The e o e, au ho i ies espond o hese demands h ough new egula o y
and ope a ional amewo ks o cope wi h exis ing and u u e isks. The Spanish egula o y amewo k ega ding
lood isk managemen , based on he Eu opean con ex , de ines he equi ed p ocedu es o eme gency
managemen , in ol ing all au ho i ies esponsible o ci il p o ec ion and u ban planning. This amewo k
equi es all municipali ies a medium o high lood isk o de elop and implemen local ac ion plans agains
lood isk (PAMRI, by i s ac onym in Spanish), which mus include a isk es ima ion, analysis and e alua ion, along
wi h he desc ip ion o ac ions o a isk-in o med u ban planning and eme gency managemen . The Ci y Council
o Oli a de eloped he co esponding plan, app o ed by he egional go e nmen in June 2016, including new
aspec s such as he igu e o he Technical Di ec o , and a comp ehensi e and quan i a i e lood isk analysis o
suppo decisionmaking on eme gency managemen and planning.
KEYWORDS
lood isk, eme gency ac ion planning, ci il p o ec ion
The need o municipal ac ion planning agains lood isk:
he isk-in o med jou ney o he municipali y o Oli a (Spain)
Juan R. Po a-Sancho1, Jesica T. Cas illo-Rod íguez2,3, Ignacio Escude -Bueno2,3 Sa a Pe ales-Mompa le 4
h p://dx.doi.o g/10.4995/ i u io-ija s.2016.6849
68
1. OBJECTIVES
This pape desc ibes he s a e-o - he-p ac ice on local
lood isk managemen in Oli a (Valencia, Spain) o
show he need o lood isk educ ion ac ions a local
scale, in line wi h u ban planning and ci il p o ec ion,
in deed, he need o conside ing u ban planning and
lood eme gency managemen om a comp ehensi e
and isk-in o med pe spec i e, o es ablish app opia e
ac ions be o e, du ing and a e a lood e en .
The e ec i e managemen o lood eme gency
e en s (including all s ages om p e en ion, ac ion
o back o no mal si ua ion) equi es a se o di e en
bu complemen a y ools ha aim a minimizing he
impac o loods o he popula ion, he economy and
he en i onmen .
I is hen jus i ied he need o imp o ing exposu e
and ulne abili y educing lood haza ds. Flood isk
analyses p o ide in o ma ion on he haza d, bu in
gene al do no include quan i a i e es ima ions o
po en ial consequences o he popula ion and he
p ope y.
This pape is ocused on wo a eas o compe ence a
local scale: u ban planning and ci il p o ec ion. These
wo a eas con e ge since u ban planning should ake
in o accoun lood exposu e and ulne abili y and
es ablish he equi ed co ec i e measu es o educe
isk.
Based on a ailable s udies ca ied ou by o o he
Ci y Council o Oli a, ela ed o lood isk p e en ion
and planning a local scale, his pape p o ides a
sho discussion on hei ou comes and conclusions
o lood isk managemen .
2.
INTRODUCTION TO THE CASUISTRY
AND CONTEXT OF THE MUNICIPALITY
OF OLIVA
I is widely known ha lood e en s in he Valencian
egion may cause signi ican economic and socie al
impac s. Some examples a e he lood e en s ocu ed
in Oli a in 2007 (Figu e 2) and 2002 (Figu e 3).
In his sec ion, a summa y o ac o s and condi ions
ela ed o he municipali y o Oli a a e p o ided.
The municipali y o Oli a, in La Sa o dis ic , is loca ed
a he sou he n pa o he Valencia p o ince (Spain).
Clima e in his a ea is ypically Medi e anean, wi h
high o mode a e in ensi y ain all e en s, wi h an
a e age annual ain all o 850 mm, ha ing eco ded
a maximum a e o 817 mm in 24 hou s (3 No embe
1987), he highes eco d in Spain up o da e.
The municipali y ex ends o e an a ea o app oxima ely
60 squa e kilome e s. I has a coas line o 8.5 km and a
coas al allu ial plain ollowed by moun ain alleys up
o 464 me e s abo e sea le el.
I is ema kable he complex hyd ological sys em
o med by he i e cou ses Rambla Galline a, Al adalí,
Fon -Vall de les Fon s, he Pego-Oli a ma sh na u al
ese e loca ed a he sou h o he municipali y, and
he dunes along he coas .
The censed popula ion o Oli a is o 26,190 inhabi an s.
The main own is si ua ed a he in e sec ion o he
moun ainous a ea wi h he plain. The e a e o he
u ban dis ic s des ina ed mainly o second esidence
and loca ed mainly on he coas . O he mino
esiden ial a eas a e loca ed along he inne pa o
Figu e 1.
Connec ions among science,
policy and socie y in e ms o
lood isk managemen .
Vi u io
In e na ional
jou nal o
A chi ec u e
Technology and
Sus ainabili y
Volume 2
69
Figu e 3.
Flooding a local oad in
Oli a, Rambla Galline a
cou se, 2002.
he municipali y.
Ag icul u e plays a signi ican ole in he economic
sec o o Oli a, which is ocused exclusi ely on o ange
p oduc ion, bu he mos impo an con ibu ion o job
c ea ion elies on he ou ism, ollowed by indus y.
Human ac i i y has modi ied he e i o y h oughou
his o y. The i s in e e ence we e he se lemen s in
he highlands, close o he plain, o de ensi e easons
and o a oid he e ec s o hea y ain all e en s. The
a ea was subsequen ly modi ied o adequa e he land
o popula ion g ow h and he demand o new c ops.
A complex wa e d ainage ne wo k o in e connec ed
b ooks and i iga ion di ches is he esul o such land
ans o ma ion.
The popula ion se lemen in he plain a ea esul ed in
he de elopmen o se e al s uc u al measu es aiming
a p o ec ing people agains looding. Howe e , he
d ainage ne wo k is cu en ly insu icien due o i s
pa ial modi ica ion by he u ban de elopmen and
c op subs i u ion by i egula housing cons uc ion,
inc easing lood ulne abili y in a eas along he
coas line.
Figu e 2.
Local oad nea Jo ades
indus ial a ea, 2007
3.
BACKGROUND RELATED TO URBAN
FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN OLIVA
In he las 40 yea s, mainly due o he inc ease o human
ac i i y on he e i o y, he occu ence o episodes
o in ense ains and he ans e o adminis a i e
compe ences o egional and local le els, ha e
inc eased lood isk awa eness o in ol ed ac o s.
3.1
FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT: THE NEED FOR
ACTION AT LOCAL SCALE
The Ci y Council o Oli a aims a managing lood isk
om a comp ehensi e and in eg a i e pe spec i e.
Wi hin he local lood isk managemen amewo k,
lood isk analysis should include a de ailed
iden i ica ion s age conce ning lood haza d and
ulne abili y, o suppo isk mi iga ion and eme gency
p e en ion planning.
In 1994, a e de eloping he Te i o ial Eme gency
Ac ion Plan in Oli a, and la e in 2000 a e app o al
o he Special Plan agains Flood Risk o he Valencian
egion, he need o local ac ion planning agains
lood isk, s uc u ed in h ee axes:
70
sȩ To comply wi h he egula o y amewo k.
sȩ To p o ide echnical, accesible and easy- o-
use ools ha allow da a ga he ing, in o ma ion
analysis and he use o geog aphic in o ma ion
sys ems (GIS).
sȩ To coo dina e all ac o s in ol ed on lood isk
managemen o ensu e ha obje i es o he isk
managemen s a egy a e e icien ly and co ec ly
achie ed.
In his sec ion, a desc ip ion o he egula o y
con ex in luencing lood isk managemen in Oli a
is p o ided. P ojec s and s udies ha di e en
adminis a ions ha e unde aken a e also included,
ema king he le el o demand o equi ed lood isk
ac ion plans.
3.2
LOCAL FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT: THE
REGULATORY CONTEXT
The main egula o y ins umen s ha in eg a e he
cu en egula o y amewo k o ci il p o ec ion,
lood isk planning and managemen a e lis ed in
his se ion, along wi h hei impac on local lood
isk managemen in Oli a. In gene al, based on
hei le el o implemen a ion, ou ca ego ies can
be dis inghished: Eu opean, na ional, egional and
local egula o y ins umen s. Howe e , in his sec ion,
ins umen s a e p esen ed in ch onological o de :
sȩ The Spanish Cons i u ion (1978), which equi es
au ho i ies o gua an ee he igh o li e and
in eg i y o all ci izens.
sȩ The Local Go e nmen Regula o y Law 7/1985,
which es ablished local compe encies in e ms o
ci il p o ec ion.
sȩ Law 17/2015, which amends Law 2/1985,
es ablishing Ci il P o ec ion as a public se ice
o ien ed o he s udy and p e en ion o collec i e
high isk, ex ao dina y disas e and public
calami y si ua ions ha could endange massi ely
li e and physical in eg i y o people, ensu ing an
adequa e esponse in case o eme gency, h ough
he Na ional Ci il P o ec ion Sys em, which will
de elop planning ac ions h ough Te i o ial
Plans (gene al scale o any si ua ion o isk) and
Special Plans ( o deal wi h a speci ic isk in a gi en
e i o y). Consequen ly, Oli a Ci y Council, in
1992, p epa ed and app o ed i s Local Basic Plan
agains looding. This Plan included a p elimina y
analysis o his o ical lood e en s.
sȩ Law 2/2013 and Royal Dec ee 876/2014, which
e e o coas al p o ec ion and looding.
sȩ Royal Dec ee 407/1992, which s a es ha lood
eme gencies should be conside ed as pa o
Special Plans, de ining hei basic con en .
sȩ The Te i o ial Eme gency Plan o he Valencian
Communi y (1993), which highlig hs he impac
o lood isk a egional scale and he need o
de eloping a Special Plan.
sȩ The Te i o ial Municipal Eme gency and Plan o
Oli a (1994), which ecommends o de elop a
local ac ion plan agains looding.
sȩ Basic Guideline o Ci il P o ec ion Planning
agains Flooding Risk (1995), which es ablished
he con en o Special Plans o ensu e
s anda diza ion a na ional scale and o gua an ee
coo dina ion among eme gency se ices.
Howe e , his Guideline did no include he
con en o equi ed lood haza d s udies nei he
he echnical aspec s o be conside ed.
sȩ The Di ec o Plan o lood p o ec ion in La
Table 1.
Classi ica ion o lood haza d
le els (PATRICOVA, 2015).
Flood
haza d
le el
High
equency
(T=25
yea s)
Medium
equency
(T=100
yea s)
Low
equency
(T=500
yea s)
Flood
dep h
(>0.8m)
125
Flood
dep h
(<0.8m)
346

Vi u io
In e na ional
jou nal o
A chi ec u e
Technology and
Sus ainabili y
Volume 2
71
Sa o (1995), including coo dina ing ac ions and
ac o s in ol ed on lood isk managemen o all
municipali ies wi hin La Sa o dis ic .
sȩ Dec ee 81/2010, which app o ed he Special Plan
agains Flood Risk o he Valencian Communi y,
which includes he main unc ions and con en
o Local Ac ion Plans o be de eloped by
municipali ies classi ied a medium o high
isk. Howe e , his plan did no desc ibe how
o de elop such plans a local scale. Oli a was
classi ied a medium isk le el.
sȩ Law 10/2001, which app o ed he equi ed
budge o unde aking “Flood ou ing ci il
wo ks in Rambla Galline a i e cou se in Oli a
(Valencia)”.
sȩ Law 13/2010, which egula es ci il p o ec ion
ac ions and eme gency managemen a egional
scale, de ining ci il p o ec ion plans as esponse
ools agains isks, equi ing he de elopmen o
Te i o ial Eme gency Plans.
sȩ Te i o ial Ac ion Plan o Flood Risk P e en ion
in he Valencian Communi y (PATRICOVA),
published in 2003 and e iewed by Dec ee
201/2015, ep esen s he planning, coo dina ion
and p o ec ion ool a egional scale o educe
lood isk wi h ocus on dec easing he po en ial
economic impac in lood p one a eas.
PATRICOVA ep esen ed a key elemen wi hin he
egula o y amewo k, based on a isk classi ica ion
esul ing om combining wo concep s: haza d and
ulne abili y, de ined as ollows:
sȩ Flood haza d in e ms o p obabili y o ocu ence
o he lood e en in a gi en a ea.
sȩ Flood ulne abili y in e ms o po en ial damages.
PATRICOVA de ines six haza d le els based on lood
equency and lood dep h, as shown in Table 1,
whe e T deno es he e u n pe iod o he lood e en .
PATRICOVA also includes wha measu es can be
applied o educe lood haza d (s uc u al measu es),
and o dec ease lood ulne abili y (e.g. u ban
planning, eme gency managemen , public educa ion
and isk awa eness campaigns). Howe e , maps o
u ban planning and egula o y chap e s a e he only
binding con en o his egional plan.
Beyond app o al o PATRICOVA in 2003, he
ollowing ins umen s a e he e wo h men ioning:
sȩ Law 4/2004, which equi ed o econside u ban
planning and o a oid u ban de elopmen in
lood isk a eas.
sȩ Law 10/2004, which equi ed planning ac o s
o classi y land based on isk classi ica ion, no
allowing u ban de elopmen s in lood p one
a eas.
sȩ Law 16/2005, which equi ed he de elopmen
o en i onmen al s udies on he impac o new
u ban de elopmen s on isks due o na u al
haza ds.
sȩ Dec ee 67/2006, which equi ed ha u ban
planning ac ions we e in line wi h he guidelines
and egula ions included in PATRICOVA, and o
es ablish p ocedu es o collabo a ing wi h Ci il
P o ec ion agencies on eme gency managemen .
sȩ EU Floods Di ec i e 2007/60/CE, which equi ed
all Membe S a es o conside he impac o
u ban planning on lood isk, along wi h he
de elopmen o lood isk maps and managemen
plans a i e basin dis ic le el.
sȩ Royal Dec ee 903/2010, which inco po a es he
equi emen s o he EU Floods Di ec i e in o
he na ional egula o y amewo k, aiming a
e alua ing lood isks and imp o e coo dina ion
among public adminis a ions and he socie y o
educe po en ial lood consequences.
Mo e ecen ly, Royal Dec ee 1/2011 se he ollowing
p inciples:
sȩ To educe isks om na u al haza ds.
sȩ To in eg a e g een in as uc u es in lood isk
a eas.
sȩ To in eg a e policies ela ed o lood isk
managemen in u ban planning, based on he
guidelines o PATRICOVA.
sȩ To analyze isk o u ban planning as desc ibed
in PATRICOVA.
72
All desc ibed ins umen s ep esen a complex bu
in e connec ed egula o y con ex ha in luences
local lood isk and ci il p o ec ion managemen ,
de ining he objec i es o any lood isk managemen
s a egy and aiming a ensu ing he app op ia e
p ocedu es o u ban planning om a isk-in o med
poin o iew.
Based on he desc ibed amewo k, i should be
dis inguished he need o analyzing lood isk
in Oli a. A s udy including a de ailed lood isk
analysis was equi ed o suppo he Ci y Council
on he app op ia e decisions o lood isk and ci il
p o ec ion planning and managemen .
3.3
LOCAL FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN
OLIVA: OBJECTIVES
The ci cums ances which con ibu ed o de elop he
s udies desc ibed la e in sec ion 3.4, included:
sȩ Disposi ion o local au ho i ies o cope wi h
lood isk h ough e iewing he Gene al U ban
Planning Plan and he de elopmen o he Local
Ac ion Plan agains lood isk (PAMRI).
sȩ Regula o y equi emen a egional scale a e
app o al o he Special Plan agains Flood Risk in
2000.
sȩ Need o a mo e de ailed ca og aphy han he
in o ma ion used a egional le el o lood isk
cha ac e iza ion in PATRICOVA.
sȩ Pa icipa ion o he Ci y Council in he amewo k
o Eu opean P ojec s: QUATER and DAMAGE.
sȩ Cons uc ion o lood ou ing ci il wo ks in Rambla
Galline a i e cou se.
sȩ Implemen a ion and use o Geog aphic
In o ma ion Sys ems (GIS) as a managemen ool
a local scale.
All p e ious ac o s suppo ed he need o ca y ou a
lood haza d analysis wi h he ollowing cha ac e is ics:
sȩ To conside a speci ic a ea (3500 Ha), limi ed by
he AP-7 highway and he sea.
sȩ To de elop a spa io- empo al analysis o
o e lows, including all i e cou ses and b ooks.
sȩ To use a digi al ele a ion model (DEM) o de elop
he equi ed 2D hyd aulic model and o analyze
sys em esponse, low di ec ions and looded
a eas, including hyd aulic cha ac e is ics o he
lood e en : lood dep hs, eloci ies, and low
a es.
sȩ To be app o ed by egional go e nmen , in line
wi h he exis ing egula o y amewo k.
sȩ To comply wi h ou comes o he DAMAGE p ojec .
Based on he a o emen ioned ci cums ances and
ou comes om he lood haza d analysis, he ollowing
objec i es we e es ablished o de elop a local ac ion
plan o Oli a:
sȩ To analyze exis ing lood haza d le els and isk o
be compa ed wi h esul s om PATRICOVA.
sȩ To p io i ize s uc u al and non-s uc u al ac ions
o lood isk managemen .
sȩ To p o ide a documen o suppo he new Gene al
Plan o U ban Planning, and he equi ed ac ions
o ci il p o ec ion and eme gency planning.
sȩ To p o ide a isk model o suppo ing
decisionmaking on eme gency managemen .
sȩ To suppo da a ga he ing and managemen o
epo ed ain all and lood e en s.
sȩ To es ablish p ocedu es o echnical and
ope a ional suppo o local ac o s on lood isk
managemen .
sȩ To use up- o-da e GIS in o ma ion o es ima e
lood isk.
3.4
PREVIOUS STUDIES THAT INFLUENCED
LOCAL FLOOD RISK ACTION PLANNING IN OLIVA
The mos ele an s udies ela ed o lood isk analysis
a local scale in Oli a included:
sȩ Flood haza d s udy (ca ied ou by
INTERCONTROL in 2005).
sȩ Flood ou ing ci il wo ks and imp o emen o he
d ainage sys em o Rambla Galline a and Se pis
i e basin (ca ied ou by Acuamed in 2006).
Vi u io
In e na ional
jou nal o
A chi ec u e
Technology and
Sus ainabili y
Volume 2
73
beyond he minimum con en p oposed by he
egional go e nmen , a e b ie ly desc ibed:
sȩ De eloping a quan i a i e lood isk analysis,
iden i ying no only po en ial consequences
o he cu en si ua ion bu also enabling he
compa ison o di e en scena ios and e alua e
he impac on isk o u u e ac ions, including
bo h s uc u al and non-s uc u al measu es
(eme gency ac ion plans, public communica ion
campaigns, wa ning sys ems, e c.). Fo ha
pu pose, he da abase EIEL (Regional su ey
on In aes uc u es and Equipmen ) has been
used o ob ain de ailed in o ma ion on u ban
and u al land uses in Oli a o cha ac e ize lood
ulne abili y.
sȩ Inco po a ing he ole and unc ions o he
Technical Di ec o o he Plan, esponsible o he
echnical pe o mance and implemen a ion. This
ole a ises om he need o a mo e in eg a i e
pe spec i e ega ding ci il p o ec ion and lood
isk go e nance, me ging all di e en phases o
eme gency managemen (p e en ion, ac ion and
back o no mal si ua ion).
4.1
FLOOD RISK ANALYSIS
A quali a i e and quan i a i e isk assessmen was
ca ied ou o suppo ing he de elopmen o he
Plan.
Quali a i e isk analysis was based on he c i e ia
de ined in PATRICOVA, o es ablish an upda ed
classi ica ion o lood haza d le els based on lood
equency and dep h.
Quan i a i e isk analysis was based on he
me hodology de eloped wi hin he amewo k o he
SUFRI p ojec , Sus ainable S a egies o U ban Flood
Risk Managemen wi h non-s uc u al measu es o
cope wi h he esidual isk (Escude -Bueno e al., 2012),
unded by he o me Spanish Minis y o Science and
Inno a ion. A isk model is pe o med o calcula e
socie al and economic isk due o looding (Cas illo-
Rod íguez e al., 2014), and allows i s ep esen a ion
h ough FN and FD cu es (whe e F deno es he
sȩ Hyd aulic modelling o lood plain a eas in i e
cou ses: Se pis, Rambla Galline a, Bullen and
Molinell (de eloped by TYPSA in 2010).
These s udies ep esen ed he benchma k wo ks
o he lood haza d s udy, in oduced in Sec ion
3.3, and de eloped in 2012 by TYPSA (enginee ing
consul ancy), as equi ed by PATRICOVA. This s udy
was app o ed on Ma ch 7, 2014, including he use o
high-de ail ca og aphy in o ma ion.
A e app o al o his s udy by he egional
go e nmen , he Ci y Council eques ed in 2014 he
decla a ion o Oli a as high lood isk municipali y,
gi en ha he majo pa o he municipal and sup a-
municipal in as uc u es and all coas al u ban cen e s
a e a isk o looding. Howe e , his applica ion has
no been esol ed ye . Based on ou comes o he
lood haza d s udy, he Ci y Council was disposed
o pe o m he Local Ac ion Plan agains lood isk
(PAMRI). Thus, he Plan was de eloped om 2014 o
2016 and inally app o ed by he egional go e men
in June 2016.
So a , only 20 o he 136 equi ed local ac ion plans o
be de eloped by municipali ies wi hin he Valencian
Communi y ha e al eady been inished and app o ed.
4.
LOCAL ACTION PLAN AGAINST
FLOOD RISK FOR THE MUNICIPALITY OF
OLIVA
To comply wi h egula o y equi emen s in e ms
o bo h Ci il P o ec ion and U ban Planning, he
Ci y Council o Oli a p oceeded in 2014 o ake he
necessa y ac ions o elabo a e a quan i a i e lood
isk analysis ha would complemen and be he basis
o de eloping he Local Ac ion Plan agains lood isk
(PAMRI).
Based on he Eme gency Municipal Te i o ial Plan
(1994) and he guidelines p o ided by he Regional
Go e nmen o de eloping hese plans, he PAMRI
con ains equi ed documen s and annexes o s a he
p ocess o imp o ed local lood isk managemen .
In his sec ion, con ibu ions p o ided o his Plan,
74
annual cumula i e exceedance p obabili y o he le el
o po en ial consequences in e ms o li e-loss, N, o
economic damages, D). Inpu da a o he isk model
was ob ained based on lood haza d analysis, sys em
esponse agains such lood e en s and es ima ion o
po en ial consequences o he popula ion a ec ed
by looding and o he p ope y.
The de ailed desc ip ion o he me hodology o
quan i a i e isk es ima ion and analysis can be ound
in (Cas illo-Rod íguez e al., 2016).
The lood haza d s udy conduc ed in 2012 was used
Ÿ Figu e 4.
In luence diag am
ep esen ing he isk model
(nodes include in o ma ion
on loads, sys em esponse
and consequences).
źFigu e 5.
Cumula i e annual exceedance
p obabili y (F) o he le el
o economic po en ial
consequences in million Eu os:
Base case (BC) and scena io
a e implemen ing he Plan
(BC+PAMRI).
Ÿ Figu e 6.
Theo e ical impac o isk
educ ion s uc u al and non-
s uc u al measu es.
as a basis o analyzing po en ial lood e en s and
sys em esponse o all i e cou ses ha in eg a e he
sys em in Oli a. This s udy was comple ed by an ad
hoc analysis o po en ial lood consequences.
The p ocess o lood isk analysis was di ided in o
h ee s ages:
sȩ Flood cha ac e iza ion: Es ima ion o he
p obabili y o occu ence and analysis o ain all
e en s ha esul in looding.
sȩ Sys em esponse cha ac e iza ion: Flood dep hs
and eloci ies as a esul o ain all e en s wi hin
he i e ca chmen a ea.
sȩ Cha ac e iza ion o po en ial consequences:
Es ima ion o consequences in e ms o po en ial
a ec ed popula ion, inju ies, li e-loss, and
economic cos s.
The e exis di e en me hodologies in he li e a u e